MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Jul 22 2005 05:49 AM
Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

5:30AM Update
Franklin is still ragged this morning, but the future track is now looking more clear.

Franklin is most likely to move out to sea during the next few days, which, thankfully, will keep us clear for the weekend. It still will need to be watched until the movement is set, but the out to sea scenario is now the most likely.

Site note:
We had a database hiccup last night and had to restore to an earlier date from posts (From this monday)
I'm trying to recover other posts that were made during the week, and they may show up later.

8PM Update
Franklin's first official Advisory is out, with 45MPH winds. Forecast track hasn't changed, but it has been recentered a little.

More will come as things are learned.

Also, there is a wave off of Africa that also will need watching next week.

7PM Update
Recon has found higher winds in what was TD#6 and the National Hurricane Center has sent out a special message indicating that Tropical Depression Six is now Tropical Storm Franklin.

This is a new record, before now, there has never been 6 named systems before August. On average, a year doesn't get to the "E" named storm until September 16th or 17th. And this month there has been a trackable storm in the Atlantic, every day, except for July 1st.

An update will occur at 8PM to reflect TD#6's upgrade to Tropical Storm Franklin.

Original Update
Tropical Depression Six has formed east of the Bahamas, and Tropical Storm Warnings are now up for portions of the bahamas. Loopy in this case is the forecast track.


The current NHC forecast has it going much of nowhere over the next few days, making a loop in the atlantic. Because of lessening shear and warm waters, it is likely to become a hurricane sometime over the next few days.
In fact, the National Hurricane Center suggests the depression may be Tropical Storm Franklin very soon.

Because of the nature of slow moving storms, especially one positioned perilously close to Florida, I'm sure we'll all be watching this over the next few days. Folks especially along the Florida East coast will want to watch this one like a flock of hawks.

Hopefully tomorrow we'll know more about the eventual path of the system, but for now, beyond the next few days your guess is as good as mine. Watch the NHC advisories and movement persistance. Many models carry this out to sea as well.

The degree of uncertainty with this system is high, so watch for official statements and changes from the National Hurricane Center. Some models suggest it could be nearing East Central Florida in 48 hours, but others keep it offshore. Most of the east central Florida coast is in the cone (or ellipse as it looks like now).

The other system in the Southwestern Caribbean may cause neither system to get too strong over the next few days, but that's another wildcard, as it too may become a depression tomorrow. This may in fact, keep strengthening of Franklin in check, and lower, unless Franklin manages to move further north. Franklin could potentially shear apart because of the system in the Southwestern Caribbean. It will be an interesting battle.


And yes, I just checked, my calendar still says July.

More to come as we learn more about the system.

Event Related Links
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar Loop
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports

Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

<i>Tropical Storm Franklin</i>
Floater Vis/IR Loop of Franklin with Storm Path Overlay
Animated Model Plot of Franklin
Model Plot of Franklin (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Franklin Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Franklin
Google Map of Franklin plotted along side Jeanne from Last Year
Google Map of Franklin And Erin (1995)


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 06:55 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

I am going to go on record now and say that until Franklin passes 70W heading northeast, I think there is a chance that he loops around and comes back. Could be as late as next weekend. I am not buying that Franklin will be picked up and sent out to seas quite as quickly as NHC is saying. I still give it a 50/50 shot that Franklin loops back sometime in the next week.

How is that for going out on a limb and commiting to nothing?


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Jul 22 2005 07:00 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

RECON is currently in the air.
They are scheduled for a center? fix around 1200Z-8 AM EDT.
I'm not sure what they will find as Franklin's satellite signature is rather poor.

RECON is also tasked with a Low Level Investigation in the NW Caribbean this afternoon. That is based on yesterday's tasking and today's Caribbean System appearance.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 07:21 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Now, if the storm performs the way that the current track looks on the side page, will that draw that larger looking invest in the caribbean over Florida into the atlantic or will the invest still head west, or is it too early to guess?

Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 07:38 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Yeah, Rasvar, I agree. With generally weak steering currents, I think Franklin may get nudged to the NNE, but the ridge will build back over him, stall him again, and may bring westward again. He may be more formidable then. I'm not buying the out to sea solution YET. The models are not feeling this situation out very well at present. The ridge won't magically disappear or fail to materialize and the timeframe 72-120 hours will have the ridge set up over top of him. Let's see what shakes out today. Cheers!

emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 07:53 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Can someone tell me how to find the center?

TAZMAN
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:07 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Based on sat pic's... why is Franklin getting more attention than the obvious disturbance off of Mexico?

Beach
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:10 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

"FRANKLIN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD KEEP
THE CENTER OF FRANKLIN MOVING PARALLEL TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST.
HOWEVER...SINCE FRANLIN IS A SMALL TROPICAL STORM...SOME ERRATIC
MOTION IS POSSIBLE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES... 65 KM
MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER."
We'll see if it keeps it's NW track for most of today.
Franklin is only 350 miles (or less) away from Orlando, If it keeps it's NW track it will be a 108 miles closer by 8pm tonight
just a thought.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:11 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

2 reasons. 1. Its closer to US territory. 2. Its close to the Governors heart. 3. Its closer to the Miami Hurricane Center. 3. It not predicted to go to Mexico -yet.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:13 AM
Radar

Franklin is showing up nicely on Melbourne long range radar this morning. A few rotating storms are just offshore of the Ft. Pierce/West Palm Beach area.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml


LI Phil
(User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:17 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Quote:

2 reasons. 1. Its closer to US territory. 2. Its close to the Governors heart. 3. Its closer to the Miami Hurricane Center. 3. It not predicted to go to Mexico -yet.




um...that's 3 reasons

while i do NOT wish to compare Franklin to Jeanne, there is one distinct similarity: no one knows for certain where he is headed or how strong he may become...location of the bermuda high, atlantic ridging, forward motion, etc. all are factors for future development and without an obvious trof to come down and scoop Franklin up and take him to fishland, it's more of a wait-and-see game right now...

we should have a better handle on this when the hunters arrive and it wouldn't surprise me to have "Gert" before too long either...


TAZMAN
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:30 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Actually... it's 4

correct-a-mundo...i didn't see she posted "3" twice!


B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:37 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

One more named storm and we`re all the way to G and its still July. Maybe we`ll go through all the letters this season seeing that the tropical records are falling like the snow in Buffalo around Janurary. Just for the heck of it, whats the farthest we`ve gone when it comes to name storms in the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico in one given hurricane season historically speaking. The way things are going, I think its a distinct possibility that we either tie the record or break it this year.......Time will tell.........Another note, the shuttle is still on the pad for a possible Tuesday launch. Thats a good sign for central Florida.....Weatherchef

TAZMAN
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:40 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

.... and what would the nomenclature be if we did ? (use them all)

I think nomenclature is the wrong word!

nomenclature works.. it means name or pertaining to naming. the nhc plan if we use all 21 normal names to go to a greek alphabet.. alpha beta gamma delta... etc. there are still 15 names to go; at least we ought to be close around october. -HF


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:41 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

All the models point Franklin out to sea with the exception of the BAM medium. This model's solution has Franklin stalling and nudged into Florida by the trough that's coming down the east coast.

I guess we will wait for the 11AM update.

But I do know Sahara dust will rain on Florida this Monday- enough to leave a red film on vehicles and possibly have air quality advisories issued for all people with respiratory problems to stay indoors.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:45 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

i'm not absolutely certain, but I believe it has gotten as far as "W" in a previous year.

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:46 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea



Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:47 AM
Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea and Other

we will probley be at h by the time july over with the sw carribean being gert and the eastern atlantic being harvey

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:52 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea and Other

Quote:

we will probley be at h by the time july over with the sw carribean being gert and the eastern atlantic being harvey





By the way does any got anything on the eastern atlantic tropical wave


yecatsjg
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:52 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

I have family driving here from Illinois this weekend.....how much wishcasting does it take to get all those models to send Franklin out to sea, lol?!? I'm crossing my fingers he stays on his projected path....

Stacey


wulrich
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:02 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Where are we getting this "Saharan Dust" event from?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:05 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

All you need to do is think he's coming to you town; that'll take care of it. If you "WILL" him to go out to sea, you're in trouble

NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:07 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

LMAO I would tend to agree with that....
On a more serious note, it seems Franklin is getting better
organized this a.m.



Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:08 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea and Other

Wave looks excellent on sat images in the eastern Atlantic. Convection starting to get pulled up from the ITCZ. The rest of it is void of convection, but maintains an excellent signature. Its a big wave; one to keep an "eye" on

jusforsean
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:08 AM
How about that sand storm on the east coast????????

Besides the uncertian path of franklin did i hear right??? We are expecting a sand storm mon - tues???
Anyone..
jusforsean


Ed G
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:10 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

where on the sfwmd.gov site do you find the latest spaghetti maps?

thanks

ed g


NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:13 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_06.gif

Ed G
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:15 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Thanks, but how do I navigate to the maps from their home page? I can't find it.

e


TAZMAN
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:16 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Where is the recon stationed? Someone stated yesterday that the plane was near Tampa... I would have thought they were based in FL

based out of keesler afb outside of biloxi ms -HF


rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:18 AM
Re: How about that sand storm on the east coast????????

Just a dusting. It's coming in like a 'tropical wave' and should affect Florida on Monday.

Beach
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:22 AM
What's this????

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-vis-loop.html

Look at:
51W 10N


jbmusic
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:34 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Tampa is in Florida

TAZMAN
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:37 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

DUH!....... They said the plane was "near" Tampa as "in the air"..... I assumed it had left from somewhere else

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:37 AM
Is Franklin moving?

Is Franklin moving at all?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtm


Floridacane
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:42 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE MELBOURNE FL
445 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2005

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN...NEAR GREAT ABACO ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST...THEN TURN NORTH LATER TODAY AND
NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE. RESIDENTS
AND VISITORS SHOULD KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST STATEMENTS ANDFORECASTS CONCERNING FRANKLIN.


Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:48 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

What is happening with the system in the Caribbean?

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 10:04 AM
Re: Is Franklin moving?

I looked at a two hour loop. Looks like a slow NNW motion. Still moving....slowly.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 10:05 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

I am also wondering about he sw carribean to and also the eastern atlantic tropical wave anyone got any thing?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 10:26 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Why is it that that the Goes 1 Satellite is still pointed at the mountains of Mexico? There are other things more interesting going on in other places in the Atlantic and Caribbean, but they always leave them hanging where the last storm dissolved days ago...

yeah, they're slow to redirect their floater. try the ramsdis site in the links at the bottom of the nhc page.. they usually keep their floaters pointed at up and coming stuff. -HF


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 10:27 AM
Re: Is Franklin moving?

Well now that we've established that Tampa is in Florida....LOL...

Looks like Franklin will help keep the good weather happening over the Sunshine State for the Weekend as the tropical storm moves North and then NorthEast away from the state. Franklin is looking a bit better this morning but appears to be on course to head out into the Atlantic which is Good News!!!!

Just wondering this morning, what with all the early storms and all, what will August and September bring and what will these stoms be like.

Hopefully we'll have lots of High Pressure over Florida for the foreseeable future.


Floridacane
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jul 22 2005 10:29 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

If I am wrong, someone please correct me. But the reasoning I believe Goes 1 is still showing post-Emily is because it is still a major rain event over the mountains, with mudslides and major flooding.

Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jul 22 2005 10:46 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

11:00 is out

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 22, 2005
...Franklin drifting erratically northwestward near abaco islands...


HanKFranK
(User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 10:46 AM
on the record

a couple days ago i was saying that if franklin formed, it would probably recurve... this based on globals that always recurve stuff early, but also with knowledge of that shortwave going by early saturday.
after reassessing the future position of the ridge and seeing how much that shortwave seems to have to it.. i'm going to put stock in the bastardi/accuwx idea that it misses the connection and meanders back to the coast next week. joe b put it well this morning; to paraphrase: if i'm wrong it goes out to sea, if i'm right it comes back.
pretty cut and dry that those are the two options.
the wave with the ridging above in the nw caribbean is probably going to start developing in the gulf tomorrow. i don't think it'll get much going before the yucatan.. but it'll probably spin up in the gulf and head for the same general area emily hit. the trajectory will be more to the north, so even if it goes into mexico a bunch of rain is coming up into texas. even if this thing fails to develop it's a rain event for lone star country.
wave near 30w still very prominent and will be moving into an upstream building ridge as an upper trough digs and retrogrades ahead of it. wave is significant in that not only does it have an energetic profile and support environment ahead, but it's the leading edge of a moisture plume off africa, pushing the dry saharan air out ahead of it. subsequent waves have a much friendlier environment thanks to this trick.
HF 1546z22july


CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 10:47 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

New Adv in:

Winds up to 50 mph, heading NNW at 2 MPH.


NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:03 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

11 am discussion

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200506.disc.html


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:14 AM
11 a.m. Discussion

Great discussion as usual from Stewart. Lots of reasoning why Florida should still pay close attention. Many models bring it back W, WSW, or SW in to Florida. Also, it seems it is stronger than they are actually classifying it right now. As I noted a little while ago, Melbourne radar shows very little motion at all. I think many people have counted on this going out to sea, and this is certainly not a done deal.

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:17 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Bottom line after reading the discussion, they're not as confident for Frankie as the previous two... could recurve, or could turn west affecting Florida... if it turns west, it could very well become a cane... sat presentation getting better also..

per NHC at 11:00 am
""IF FRANKLIN REMAINS STATIONARY EAST OF FLORIDA AND DOES NOT RECURVE AS FORECAST...THEN THE INTENSITIES AFTER 48 HOURS WOULD LIKELY BE HIGHER THAN INDICATED.""


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:19 AM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

Yeah, from what I could discern on Melb radar I saw very little motion, if any...

FlaMommy
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:25 AM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

hi can anyone tell me what was so significant about 1954 as far as the hurricanes go?,,,thanks

go to the www.weather.unisys.com, click on hurricane and look at the 1851-2004 archives. click on 1954. should be self-explanatory. -HF


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:26 AM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

According to the new coordinates at 11 a.m., it actually moved a bit ENE. I think this quick slowdown or crawl has put more credence back in to a possible Florida track. That is why we are seeing the uncertainty in the new discussion. I know a storm is close by to my east because my winds are N to NW, extremely rare in the summer, unless of course a storm is just offshore.

wiley
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:28 AM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

Question from a neophyte:
As far as I can tell, there are at least eight different forecast tracks at least according to SWFMD). What is the major difference between these and which is historically the most accurate? I'm sure there's a website or a post that discusses this, no?
thanks,


Lysis
(User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:41 AM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

flamommy... I am not sure in what context you are talking about, but 1954 is the year of hurricane Hazel, which hit the midatlantic states and was moving at such a velocity that it made it alll the way to Canada before being downgraded to a tropical storm. Again... I don't know in what context you are talking about.

Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:42 AM
Re: on the record

Do you think the wave will send rain as high as the upper Texas coast? We've already had too much rain as it is.

Lysis
(User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:44 AM
Re: on the record

Texas/northern Mexico very well could see a tropical storm event next week. It's funny how we all beg for rain in time of drought, and then very quickly recieve too much of it.

EDIT: Yeah... I know.


Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:45 AM
Re: on the record

I am talking about the wave in the Caribbean.

Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:46 AM
Re: on the record

I am trying to pull up a current projected map from the SFWMD site. Please tell me how to navigate in this site. Once I go in, do I go to weather and there where do I go? Any help is appreciated. When I asked before everyone just keep sending me the link. I need to know how to navigate the site. Thanks

Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:47 AM
Re: on the record

This is exactly what happened. We had a drought and now we have too much rain. I guess that is life on the coast, at least here in Southeast Texas.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:58 AM
Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical wave

I know we have franklin now and possible gert in a day or so but what about that eastern atlantic tropical wave its also possible it could form before july over and that would be what 8 tropical systems before august that would be scary to think of what august and september would be like but for now what does any one think about the eastern atlantic tropical wave and DONT IGNORE THIS ONE

pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:03 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

With 3 models bringing Franklin west before 29 north...stay awake!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:06 PM
Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical wave

I think I answered this on page 2. Its an excellent wave and bears watching. Only inhibiting factor is dry air. As it moves west it should get into a more favorable environment. Its a large wave.

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:09 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

Of course we're staying awake. Especially after reading the 11 am discussion.

Still think Franklin will move North and East of Florida but not very rapidly so it of course bears watching.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:10 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

wiley -- they vary from year to year. Stick to the official NHC path projected there; truth be told, most of the models on that page are older, more primitive models, save for the GFDL and UKMET.

As for the SFWMD site -- unless there is a categorized storm or an invest out on the disturbance, they won't have an image. The next one in line will be 91L.


NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:13 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

91L is on the Navy site already
and sfwmd is showing it up, without the full link yet


Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:13 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

As for the SFWMD site -- unless there is a categorized storm or an invest out on the disturbance, they won't have an image. The next one in line will be 91L.




Someone put a picture of it on this site this morning. that is what I am trying to find. Maybe I am confussed.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:16 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

Looks like he may be pulling towards the northeast now, but I may be deceived. Frank, do you have a link to the Melbourne radar??

NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:17 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml

richg
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:18 PM
Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical wave

THSwonder,

You might get a better response by:
1. Registering
2. Typing with at least some puncuation, capilitization, etc, to make your post more readable.
3. Most important, being respectful to those on the board by not yelling.
You're lucky even one person took the time to acknowledge you after the "DON'T IGNORE THIS" remark.

Have a nice day.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:20 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

Thanks

emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:23 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

Here's another link. I like this one because you can set it to autorefresh.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/mlb_N0Z_lp.html


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:25 PM
Movement

Looks like it is moving N or NE by the radar.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:26 PM
Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical wave

Ok I am sorry I probley should not do that kind of stuff thank you and I will register today sometime. Thanks and I still would like to know a little more about that eastern Atlantic tropical wave.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:27 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

The picture put on the site in the first page of the thread was for Franklin. I don't see one for the Caribbean disturbance. They do not have one for a 91L yet (as of 12:25p ET). When it becomes available, it'll be at http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_91.gif. Given that the Navy recently put up 91L on the NRL Monterey website, I would expect it later today.

MissBecky
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:29 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

Those BAM models bring Franklin uncomfortably close to Ft. Myers... I was wondering how reliable they are. I seem to remember reading here once that the BAM models are not initialized very well, and so their solutions are usually not terribly accurate. Can anyone confirm this? Thanks.

Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:31 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

Quote:

The picture put on the site in the first page of the thread was for Franklin. I don't see one for the Caribbean disturbance. They do not have one for a 91L yet (as of 12:25p ET). When it becomes available, it'll be at http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_91.gif. Given that the Navy recently put up 91L on the NRL Monterey website, I would expect it later today.




Franklin was the one I was looking for. I can not navigate the site to where I need to go. I can not find the plots section.


Waggy
(Registered User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:36 PM
Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical wave

Hey I Registered richg

rmbjoe1954
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:39 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

Franklin seems to be making its turn due North, then hopefully NE. Do you see any immediate opportunity for Franklin to make the loop anytime soon? I guess that would depend on when the trough makes it to the east coast. Just trying to make sense of the 11AM discussion.

Ed G
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:42 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

I'm with ya wanna be!

I'd love to know too.


ed

I hate to say this, but I'd love a chance to try out my new hurricane panels!


TAZMAN
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:42 PM
Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical wave

Just watching Local 6 and Wesh 2 news here in central FL.... question is, where do they get their color satellite pics?? they are much different than any I’ve seen thru links here.... are they the same and just doctored up to look nice?

WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:43 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

Franklin seems to be looking increasingly symetrical on the AVN Color Infrared Loop. It is starting to show reds wrapping around the center. We wont see the rapid deepening we've seen with some of the rest...will we? If it does intensify, how does that affect the forcast versus a weaker storm? :?: :?:

Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:43 PM
Re: Movement

Very slowly though rich. I'm keeping my eye on the surface periphery of the storm, not the blowup of convection and I see very little overall movement, perhaps a slow NE drift. Was watching JB video, and he is thinking that Franklin will move ENE a few degrees, then turn back westward and threaten the SE US, anywhere from south Florida to the Carolinas as the ridge moves over from the midwest east, then off into the Atlantic. Its a wait and see.

KingTex
(Registered User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:45 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

Quote:

One more named storm and we`re all the way to G and its still July. Maybe we`ll go through all the letters this season seeing that the tropical records are falling like the snow in Buffalo around Janurary. Just for the heck of it, whats the farthest we`ve gone when it comes to name storms in the tropical Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico in one given hurricane season historically speaking. The way things are going, I think its a distinct possibility that we either tie the record or break it this year.......Time will tell.........Another note, the shuttle is still on the pad for a possible Tuesday launch. Thats a good sign for central Florida.....Weatherchef


We got to the T storm (Tanya) in 1995. That is the most since they've been naming storms. In fact, there has only been 2 named P storms, one R, one S, and one T. There may have been more storms during a year before they named storms, but those are the records since they've been named.

TAZMAN
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:45 PM
Re: Movement

Quote:

Its a wait and see.




As they all are !


Goosus
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:47 PM
Re: Eastern Atlantic Tropical wave

Am I the only one here who already doesn't like Waggy? Quite pushy.

Ok, I'll be the second one to mention this. What's the deal with the circular flare up of convection around 53W 10N? It's almost the size of Franklin and is quite symetrical in nature. Is this the new invest on the Navy site?


joepub1
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:47 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

Quote:

With 3 models bringing Franklin west before 29 north...stay awake!




That's the key that those three models are betting on. If Franklin gets east of Jax(30 N) he gets swept out to sea. But they think he never makes it that far and gets forced back to the west.

He is looking a bit better, more like a developing TS. I suspect the pressure will start falling a little, but he's taking his time doing everything today, moving being one of them. Looking at the vis sat you would think he's farther to the NE and moving faster than he is, but the Melbourne rader looks like a slow NNW. Will he be north of the Cape by Sat morning?? If not, he could miss the bus, and hang around with no idea where to go.


emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:48 PM
Re: Movement

I'm having a difficult time telling if it's moving north or just building northward. Is there an easy way to tell?

WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:48 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

If they do go through the names, do they just start over with the next rotation for next year???

nope. should we go past wilma the set of names goes into greek letters.. alpha beta gamma delta... etc. we'll be hard pressed to get there. -HF


CarolinaGurl
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:50 PM
1954 - Hazel

Try this link to read about Hazel - she went right up the Cape Fear River just like every other cane to come this way has done. I actually lived in a beach hut that survived Hazel in Kure Beach when we first moved here.

http://www.ibiblio.org/uncpress/hurricanes/nc_hazel.html


HanKFranK
(User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:53 PM
future gulf system

franklin is either going to get the connection and recurve or miss it and loop back. this won't be decided until late in the weekend (if it's jetting ene at that point all clear, if it's stalled again or drifting south look out).
there appears to be a broad surface low forming on the east coast of the yucatan. it should propagate nw over the peninsula and be in the sw gulf tomorrow. i'm thinking the globals pushing it into mexico are garbage because none really initialize much of a system and treat it like an open wave.. once it develops a defined surface low and plenty of convection the mean deep-layer flow is from the se.. should push it nw towards texas. early next week as the upper ridge shifts east, the center of height falls should be over the western gulf states and bend the track of whatever is there northward... if the feature on the e coast of the yucatan is going to be 'it', i'd say that mass ends up btw corpus christi and houston... centered on victoria... around monday night.
heat content in the western gulf is still very high in spite of emily having gone through earlier this week. theres a shot that a strengthening hurricane will hit texas early next week.
wave east of the islands is half moist/half saharan dust.. should generate more convection as it nears 40w and i'm thinking it will develop around 50w. there may be a tropical system approaching the leewards around tue-wed.
HF 1753z22july


NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:55 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion


Looking at the vis sat you would think he's farther to the NE and moving faster than he is, but the Melbourne rader looks like a slow NNW. Will he be north of the Cape by Sat morning?? If not, he could miss the bus, and hang around with no idea where to go.

I agree. Looking at Melbourne radar, if he is moving at attl, it is to the NNW... but barely


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 12:59 PM
Re: Movement

The Bamn models to me are useless. Although JB says he likes the idea of Franklin coming back to the U.S. I dont see it happening. For 1 there will be no strong ridge to push it back westward. That ridge will be weak. After the trough moves off the east coast this weekend, a weak ridge will form and possibly halt the NE movement of Franklin, then a deeper trough will come into the great lakes and eventually east coast and sweep him NE rapidly early-mid next week.
BTW Joe was looking at the wrong telaconnection. The current trop off japan is moving N and eventually NE. The System hes talking about hitting Japan is in comparison to the one going to be in the gulf. I agree on the Japan hit, just he sees the wrong teleconect system.Like he or anyone says, we will see what will happen and if Im wrong then this will be the 1st blown forecast outside of me missing Dennis by 75 miles from 3 days out ( which wasnt too bad).

you missed dennis by 75 mi from 1 day out; 3 days out you had it further east. to be fair i had it in about the same spot. you aced arlene and emily, but were lackluster with bret and cindy. those are the facts. -HF


firestar_1
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jul 22 2005 01:11 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

Quote:


I hate to say this, but I'd love a chance to try out my new hurricane panels!




LMAO....be careful what you ask for!!! you just might find out they are not rated for the wind speeds you could end up getting........


Lysis
(User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 01:20 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

Kind of general, but Franklin is looking alot better the last hour or so.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html


EDIT: atleast you have shutters, unlike myself.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jul 22 2005 01:25 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

MissBecky -- the BAM series of models only take into account the steering flow and the Beta drift (related to Coriolis) of the storm. That's pretty much it, making them somewhat limited. The BAMM takes into account the middle levels as those steering the storm, the BAMD most of the atmospheric, and the BAMS (often not used) just the low levels.

Note about navigating the SFWMD site -- I don't know of any direct way it can be done. Essentially, you can just take the address I provided before and change storm_91 to whatever one you think is out there -- e.g. 06 for Franklin, 05 for Emily, and so on.

Note about satellite colorization -- the raw satellite data goes to many places, including TV stations. There are algorithms that exist to provide any sort of colorization that you like for a satellite image, and the TV stations apply ones they feel are best for TV to show what is out there. Similarly, the NHC has one of their own as well, while the AVN Color composite is yet another choice out there. Different color schemes exist for other satellite products as well. Really, it's the same data...just a different color scheme applied based on user/viewer preferences.

Note about Franklin and a northward movement -- the storm is drifting right now, but most of the motion can be attributed to the system becoming better organized in association with the deep convection. I don't think any definitive trend has begun, but be watching from here through the rest of the day to see if one does get started.


NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 01:29 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

sfwmd is now showing 91L

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_91.gif

oops forgot to put up the link, sorry


pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 01:35 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

I like those models!!!

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 01:42 PM
Re: 1954 - Hazel

Here is a link to some more information about Hazel. I recently saw a show on public TV about Myrtle Beach, SC and it showed a lot of photos of the damage from Hazel. I don't think there was a house left on the oceanfront.


WRAL web page


nowhammies
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 01:43 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Quote:


But I do know Sahara dust will rain on Florida this Monday- enough to leave a red film on vehicles and possibly have air quality advisories issued for all people with respiratory problems to stay indoors.





Okay - really feeling like i missed something. I am afraid - very afraid - not of the "storm" - anyone who lives in FL knows that we live with lots of dust - but that this idea is really running around. Where does it come from? I am not taking it terribly seriously - call me a sceptic - but I would like to know why?


Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 01:56 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Quote:


But I do know Sahara dust will rain on Florida this Monday- enough to leave a red film on vehicles and possibly have air quality advisories issued for all people with respiratory problems to stay indoors.




If advisories may be issued, wouldn't infomation on this be issued in the Hazardous Weather Outlooks already, especially if we are going to get enough to cause a red film on vehicles? Is there any official infomation on this from the NWS at all?

Edit - Thanks Rasvar for that link below


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 01:56 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Here is a link with information on the "sandstorm" [Reg may be required to view]
Sandstorm is coming


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jul 22 2005 02:02 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

A "rain storm" of dust is overblowing the matter. We see these outbreaks of the dust layer a couple of times each hurricane season, bringing only minor effects to our part of the ocean. It might cause things to be slightly more hazy than they already are (given the stagnant weather conditions of the past month), maybe even cause slgiht impairment to breathing for those who normally have trouble with it -- but the basic ideas in the newspaper article are likely on the extreme end of things you might see.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 02:04 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Clark,

How far west in the US could these "dust clouds" cover?


FlaMommy
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 02:05 PM
Re: 11 a.m. Discussion

the reason i was wondering is becase joe bastardi mentioned 1954 all over again...thats why

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jul 22 2005 02:06 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Probably not very far. They'll lose their transport mechanism once they leave the tropical easterlies (and associated tropical waves), making any substantial progression unlikely (save maybe for in the Gulf...even then it's likely to be rather diluted). We're too far north and too close to the mid-latitude westerlies to see anything terribly significant.

lawgator
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jul 22 2005 02:13 PM
Dust storm

Here's an article form Orlando Sentinel on dust storm:

As if this hurricane season weren't tumultuous enough, Central Florida -- and the rest of the Southeast -- is about to get hit by a sandstorm.

By Monday or Tuesday, a Sahara dust outbreak, or a cloud of what originally was African sand carried across the Atlantic on the back of a tropical wave, is expected to settle over the region for about 12 hours, forecasters said.

It might turn the skies milkier and leave a light coating of reddish-brown dust on your car, the result of a small amount of iron content. It also could make the sunrise and sunset spectacular, said Jim Lushine of the National Weather Service in Miami.

"It's just kind of an interesting phenomenon," he said. "You might see it better in the morning, when the angle of the sun is low."

Usually, such dust clouds are too diluted to cause health problems or reduce visibility for aircraft pilots.

On the other hand, if concentrated enough, the outbreak could raise the air-quality index into the unhealthy range for people with respiratory problems, said Ken Larson, a natural-resource specialist in South Florida.

Dust outbreaks, which are most common in early July, start when tropical waves lift sand from the Sahara to about 10,000 feet, where it is reduced to even smaller particles. The dust then drifts west on a dry tropical wave, as opposed to a moist tropical wave, which can spin into a hurricane.

The dust cloud aiming this way is huge, about 2,500 miles from west to east and 1,500 miles from north to south, or almost as big as the United States, Lushine said.

By today, the outbreak should be about 1,400 miles east of Miami, moving west at 345 miles per day, about the same pace as a tropical system.

Because the Sahara dust carries some pathogens, it might harm coral reefs, particularly in the Caribbean, said Bernhard Riegl, an associate professor at Nova Southeastern University's Oceanographic Center.

"Entire desert locusts, the insects, have made it across the Atlantic to the Windward Islands," Riegl said.

One good side effect: "It's difficult for tropical-storm development to occur in these dust outbreaks," Lushine said.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 02:15 PM
Re: Dust storm

Clark pretty much sumed it up. I wouldnt worry about any dust-storm. Maybe alittle hazy conditions and people who might have trouble breathing but that is at a worse case scenerio. Anyways they pretty much told the truth but jacked it up on the paper.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 02:16 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

may be my eyes, but franklin appears to be on the move (faster than this morning) i would say north, maybe just slightly east of north, (at 6-10kts) but appears to be strengthing too. The dust storm can be seen pretty good on GOES 12 8km from colostate.edu. noticed at the bottom of dust system, there is a pretty good tropical wave nearing the islands. might be too close to south america, but may make into carribean, will have to wait and see. Wonder what the NASA guys are going to do this weekend. Sat at noon is when the next countdown is suspose to begin for tuesday launch. Atlantis was moved this morning to prepare for vehicle assembly.

Will franklin catch the weakness or will he miss it? right now it looks very close i think.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 02:24 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Franklin is moving about 8mph to the N or about 5dg on average with slight wobbles from 0-10dg on averaging. I expect a N or NNE motion for the next 48 hours then will miss the first trough and slow down near 30N and 74W (abouts) then wobble around then get picked up by the stronger trough going off the east coast (tuesday-thurs). Its not out of the question that he might move sw then threaten florida but the ridge will be weak between troughs. I would like to see a globle model or 2 pick up on this. The GFS hints at something on the 12z run going into florida on monday-tuesday but takes Frankin rapidly NE. It could be seeing 2 things.

TAZMAN
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jul 22 2005 02:26 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Quote:

The dust storm can be seen pretty good on GOES 12 8km from colostate.edu.




Mike do you have a link ?


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 02:29 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

If I recall, it took the models a couple of false starts before they grasped on the idea of Jeanne looping last year. I will feel more comfortable if Franklin is trucking NE at a good rate right on past 70W. If the turn is going to happen, I almost doubt the models grasp it until tomorrow afternoon. It is a too close to call photo finish to me at this time.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 02:33 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Franklin pressure near 1008mb from 1007mb......expect winds to stay though at 50mph with 53kt winds at flight level or 45K near surface (abouts).

scottsvb


TAZMAN
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jul 22 2005 02:35 PM
Dust storm?

http://visibleearth.nasa.gov/view_rec.php?id=7004

This is dated back in May.... how long would something like this need to come across?

EDIT: It's probably this one? http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gallery/?2005200-0719/WestAfrica.A2005200.1420.1km.jpg


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 02:37 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Quote:

Wonder what the NASA guys are going to do this weekend. Sat at noon is when the next countdown is suspose to begin for tuesday launch. Atlantis was moved this morning to prepare for vehicle assembly.





Fortunately, there is room for two in the VAB. I think they may wait as long as possible[IE, right before they start the countdown], to make a rollback decision. I am not sure how much a launch criteria a down range storm is. That is more of an issue for booster recovery ships. I seem to recall them launching with rough weather in the recovery zone. If Franklin stalls off the coast, which is starting to look less likely, they may have to consider rollback. As of right now, if Franklin does head NE in the short term, they should be able to get a shot in for a launch on Tuesday. Anything after that would be questionable if Franklin loops back. Although, if they fill the tank and try for Tuesday and do not launch, they may be in trouble considering the 24-30 hours to empty the tank and then seven hours[I think] for the rollback.

My guess for now, they start the clock on Saturday. If Franklin hints at a turn back, they stop and scrub the countdown and prepare for rollback, holding off for as long as the safely can.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 02:39 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

yeah I think there were a couple models that took jeanne off to the ne but they werent the best models last year at the time. We saw what was clearly evident of a turn back towards the west and it was supported by 2-3 decent models that we rely more on.
With franklin,,,,,,clark sums everything up best with the Bamn models and what they take on tropical systems. All globles take Franklin off to the NE, some faster then others. Again I note looking at the 12z GFS it seeing something going into Florida early next week ( which that when it would have to happen before the next stronger trough) and its the first sign of any major model picking up on what could be Franklin. Also though it does keep the original storm heading NE and out to sea. So it could be seeing 2 things.


abyrd
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jul 22 2005 02:44 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Just a thought, and not predicting anything, but Franklin is due east of Fort Pierce right now. Fronts, which is what we hope will pick up Franklin, just don't get that far south, except on rare occasions, during July/August. Wouldn't the storm need to get even with, say Savanah, to feel the affects significantly? That's roughly 350 miles. With that in mind, any slowdown over the next two days and Franklin misses the train.

As always, just a thought. Please poke holes in my theory.


lawgator
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jul 22 2005 02:46 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Any thoughts on the blob of convection at 55W, 10 N? Future "G" storm? I'll resist any "G-string" jokes for the moment. But on the water vapor loop it looks mighty healthy, especially compared to Franklin.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 02:52 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Well you have kinda the right concept but a trough or front doesnt have to be that far down to mess up to ridge or reframe the ridges shape. For example the first trough is moving quick and isnt real strong but enough to have the ridge near Franklin erode on its NW side causing a weakness and pushing him around it. Now ridges are like bubbles,,,they are in many shapes and sizes and slide around and dissapate. A 2nd stronger trough will move down off the east coast and weaken the ridge and push it into the eastern gulf with a stronger ridge then off south of Bermuda. Now even though there is no cold front inbetween the ridges over the SE US or SW Atlantic there is no ridge. So its called a weakness.
I explain things kinda hard. I guess thats why Im not a teacher but I hope it gives ya some kind of idea.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jul 22 2005 02:52 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

It's just some low-level forced convection on the ITCZ, likely to make a rendezvous with South America over the next 24hr. Nothing at the surface, just a large blob of convection. I wouldn't be worried about that, particularly given Franklin offshore and potential development in the Gulf later in the weekend.

WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 02:54 PM
Dust Storm

Here is a fantastic picture of the duststorm

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=12979


TAZMAN
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jul 22 2005 03:00 PM
Re: Dust Storm

Quote:

Here is a fantastic picture of the duststorm

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/natural_hazards_v2.php3?img_id=12979




I reposted another up top.... they are just awesome pictures!!


Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 03:13 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

I am interested in the wave in the Caribbean. If something develops in the Gulf what areas of the Texas coast might be affected?

Reaper
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jul 22 2005 03:16 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Looks as if Franklin is trying to form an eye in the last few frames web page

It's just another convective artifact, much like yesterday's feature. Shadows from the sun passing by might be enhancing the visual effect somewhat. The storm's too weak -- per recon reports all day -- for an eye to be getting going. --Clark


LI Phil
(User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 03:26 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Quote:

I am interested in the wave in the Caribbean. If something develops in the Gulf what areas of the Texas coast might be affected?




Hey, Beaumont...

I posted this link the other day...don't know if you saw it, but you may wish to bookmark it...

Cheers,

LI Phil


00cj
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jul 22 2005 03:45 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Is it possible that the Carribean disturbance could become named a depression over the yucatan penninsula?...I know opal in 95 first became a dpression over it.. I was wondering if that was rare or what?...just curious.

edit: opal was practically over it.....really close.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 04:03 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

What is the probability that Franklin will turn west? I can't remember which hurricane it was that did a 360 (started out east than looped back to the west). Is this a possibility for Frankilin? Also, what would cause a hurricane to make that drastic of a change in direction?

Wingman51
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jul 22 2005 04:05 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Dizzy

That was Frances last year :?:


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 04:06 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Thats a 180 not a 360 :?:

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 04:08 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

What is the possibility of this thing hitting Miami?

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 04:12 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

If you look at Frances' plotted path, she did a 360, if I'm not mistaken. But I understand a change in direction would be a 180. Thanks for the clarification.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 04:13 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

No problem...just trying to avoid confusions...im already confused as it is...

Todd
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jul 22 2005 04:15 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Try Dennis 1999 if you want to get dizzy

leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jul 22 2005 04:15 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

The storm that made a loop last year was Jeanne, as has been mentioned countless times in the past 24 hours.

As for the forecast, on visible satellite you can see both a northerly component in Franklin, as well as a trough currently diving across the Carolinas and Georgia. If these meet, Franklin will be quickly swept off to sea. If Franklin doesn't make it far enough north, the ridge is likely to reassert itself, leading to the anticyclonic loop scenario.

(I'm only repeating this speculation, as it too has been discussed numerous times already in this thread)


Hurricane Fredrick 1979
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jul 22 2005 04:17 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Quote:

What is the probability that Franklin will turn west? I can't remember which hurricane it was that did a 360 (started out east than looped back to the west). Is this a possibility for Frankilin? Also, what would cause a hurricane to make that drastic of a change in direction?




That was Hurricane Erin. She got off the coast of W Fla did a 180 and came into Ms.


abyrd
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jul 22 2005 04:18 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Not Frances, it was Jeanne

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004jeanne.shtml?


pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 04:20 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Fred...that was Emily....Erin hit Pcola in 95

pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 04:21 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

no..sorry, not Emily...Elena...1985

Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Jul 22 2005 04:28 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Quote:

The storm that made a loop last year was Jeanne, as has been mentioned countless times in the past 24 hours.

As for the forecast, on visible satellite you can see both a northerly component in Franklin, as well as a trough currently diving across the Carolinas and Georgia. If these meet, Franklin will be quickly swept off to sea. If Franklin doesn't make it far enough north, the ridge is likely to reassert itself, leading to the anticyclonic loop scenario.

(I'm only repeating this speculation, as it too has been discussed numerous times already in this thread)




Can you send me a link where you can see the trough by GA? If there is one.


leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jul 22 2005 04:43 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

I was referring to The Atlantic Visible loop on http://www.wunderground.com/tropical but I don't know if that's present for non-subscribers. It is however visible in the first few frames of the RAMSDIS linked on page 1 of this thread.

emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 04:45 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

This is an interesting loop. Is the gulf system interfering with Franklin again?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html


D3m3NT3DVoRT3X
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Jul 22 2005 04:47 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

looks like it is being pushed to the east

LI Phil
(User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 04:50 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea




Can you send me a link where you can see the trough by GA? If there is one.




http://iwave.rsmas.miami.edu/surf/images/tanal.1.gif]Big Trough Image

Removed Table Breaker Image - MikeC


Rick on boat in Mobile
(Weather Drama Guru)
Fri Jul 22 2005 05:02 PM
system in Caribbean will sneak north

or at least the energy will...

we'll have action in the Gulf in a few days....


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 05:05 PM
Re: system in Caribbean will sneak north

here's a look from the west at franklin (some-what side view)

GOES 11


leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jul 22 2005 05:06 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

5pm DIscussion is up.

Quote:


However...the GFS... UKMET...and the Canadian
models now only take Franklin as far north as 30n latitude in 36-48
hours...and then leave the mid-level circulation behind while the
low-level center moves quickly northeastward ahead of a cold front.
While this scenario is possible...it would mean that Franklin would
cease to exist as a tropical cyclone.





Also: hey, 100 posts.


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jul 22 2005 05:16 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Franklin got his work cut out for him now....he's getting pinched,

Found some info on Emily ER-2 flight from NASA
3d view of Emily from Doppler radar on ER-2 a week ago


Emily view


Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 05:30 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Thanks Phil. Yes, I have that site. Thanks for giving it to me. I guess I am more interested in that wave than in Franklin since I live in Texas.

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Fri Jul 22 2005 05:50 PM
Re: system in Caribbean will sneak north

Rick, probably have action in the GOM late tomorrow or early on Sunday... early model runs have it going into Mexico again near where Emily went inland... expect it to stay on a basically wnw track... if so, it won't be over water all that terribly long so it shouldn't be that strong a storm... unless it were to deviate from the model track and take a more northerly component, in which it would have time to work with the warm GOM waters and be over water a longer time... unless Frankie boy takes the loop and back tracks to Florida, he and "Gert" might not be too much to write about... buy hey, its not even August yet and we've done had 5 GOM storms (maybe 6 by the end of the weekend), and two Cat 4s, one a borderline Cat 5... and this is still the "preseason" .... all I can say is WOW

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Jul 22 2005 06:27 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

That is very interesting; thank you.

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Jul 22 2005 07:51 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Don'tcha hate it when the pages get too wide?

Got 3 e-mails/PM's or so on Joe Bastardi's
updated landfall intensity forecast for July. I
thought his 2004 forecast was insane, but this
one outdoes what we've already seen. I
think Phil callled 2004 the Season from Hell
or something like that. Well 2005, if this verifies,
will set a new standard for heat.

What I got from the different e-mails is that
he's looking for a major hurricane to hit
southern Florida; a hurricane for the N.E.
US Coast, a hurricane for Canada (possibly
in conjunction with the NE Coast storm),
another hurricane for Texas, a major for the
Carolinas, and a substantial threat to the
north central Gulf Coast east of the LA zone.

I don't have accupro, so I can't verify this in its
entirety, but this is what I could piece together
between the information I got. I also know that
he expects continued close-in development so
we will probably have a few more tropical
storm hits among the hurricanes he's calling for.

Hey, if this stuff verifies, and his analogs are
big for 1995, 1954 and 1933, that would be a
major victory for seasonal landfall predictions.
His earlier forecast called for the most effects
on the North Central Gulf, and between
Arlene, Cindy and Dennis, that was a good call.

We'll see.

Steve


CaneTrackerInSoFl
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 07:56 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Joe called Emily when many on here were saying he was wishcasting it. He was off by maybe 100 miles from over a week out. And he's been doing that for the past few years. Also, how do you get the emails from Mr. Bastardi on his intensity forecasts?

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:06 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

I don't get anything from him anymore.
I used to get some e-mails from him
when I subscribed. But I'm boycotting
Accuweather due to their support of S.768
and Senator Santorum. The tropical update
video is free on Yahoo. But I have some
friends around the web who send me info
because they know I used to subscribe
and would pass on pertinent tidbits.

Steve


Jane219ga
(Registered User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:08 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

You have to pay $$$ for JB's "pro secret stuff".

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:21 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Post deleted by Moderator

Lysis
(User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:22 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

thanks for sharing that with us.

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:25 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

>>You have to pay $$$ for JB's "pro secret stuff".

Yeah. If you want the column and the meterological map discussion, you have to pay for accuweather pro. It was an okay deal for $14.95/month last couple of seasons, but it's high at $24.95.

>>JB is nothing but a wind bag his score has been low for the last 5 yrs.

That's kind of lame ebel. That you'd post it under an unregistered alias is even worse. I have my issues with Bastardi, the NHC, HankFrank, Derek Ortt and the rest of 'em from time to time, but I can do it in a way that doesn't try to cut them down. If you could back up the "score being low for 5 years" with something of substance, your argument might hold some merit. But he's only been doing the landfall score since 2003. So whatever I guess. He can be a windbag, I ain't going to argue with that. But your post and its circumstances really doesn't dignify anything. Pffff

Steve


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:31 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

CaneTracker -- thing is, for everyone he gets right, you can pinpoint another (Dennis, taking it to New Orleans practically up until landfall) that he got wrong. I'm not trying to incite another AccuWeather war, but Bastardi's wrong about as often as he is right. He goes out there on a limb and nails a few before others...but gets burned in a similar fashion. One's personal preference, I guess. I'm personally not too keen on his style, but I do have to give him credit where it is due...like with the initial call on Franklin (as echoed by HF) -- I was too slow and bearish on it, while the bullish nature of the tropics won out this time.

Something you all may find interesting: Derek Ortt, the guy Steve mentioned in his previous post and a forecaster over at Storm2k, is only a recently-graduated undergrad at UMiami. He does pretty well for not having had a full background, which means he should do even better once he gets the tropical & overall meteorological background under him in the next year or two; his specialty right now is the model he and John Cangelosi run over at their site. I personally feel that they probably go a little far in recommending watches and warnings, but that again is just my personal preference...otherwise they do a pretty good job. Just an interesting tidbit.


Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:32 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

I do give JB credit for his intensity forecast at the beginning of the season. His forecast showed high risk for the north central gulf, and I think that has verified well.

Steve
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:35 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

>>CaneTracker -- thing is, for everyone he gets right, you can pinpoint another (Dennis, taking it to New Orleans practically up until landfall) that he got wrong. I'm not trying to incite another Accuweather war, but Bastardi's wrong about as often as he is right. He goes out there on a limb and nails a few before others...but gets burned in a similar fashion. One's personal preference, I guess

I agree with that assessment Clark. Where he is outstanding is with the pattern recognition stuff. He's not as good with the end-game solutions. The Dennis call to the Mouth wasn't off by much considering it was about 7 days out. But he's too slow and stubborn to back off sometimes which causes him to lose credibility. For me, he carries some weight, but I still follow the NHC for life & limb.

Steve


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Jul 22 2005 08:59 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

On a different note, the NHC disco by Forecaster Stewart was excellent. Franklin will likely remain a tropical storm, especially with the large area of disturbed weather associated with the same ULL. Also, dry air has wraped around the westward side of the system once again caused by the outflow boundary of the SW caribbean disturbance. Motion has been almost due north for the past couple hours, and will become more easterly as time progresses.

Lysis
(User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:02 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Best to consider Joe Bastardi or any other divergent meteorologist as a second opinion, that helps give you a broader view of the whole picture. Tis’ not good to be so dogmatic as rely on only one source with something as complex as the weather. Imagine what would happen if we only used the GFS for everything … oh, wait.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:04 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

That's something known as consensus...but there are certain time periods when certain models are peferred. The GFS happens to have it's times, somtimes more then others, much like forecasters.

Lysis
(User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:07 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

that was a little bit of a joke, keith.

a message like this would be better served by a PM


LI Phil
(User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:08 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

The GFS is, like JB sometimes, better at "seeing" things in the long range (which is in my humble opinion, about all it's good for) than in the short range...

What's been up with the BAMs with Franklin? Talk about your outliers...


Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:12 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

I didn't see the post that got deleted, but JB's call on Franklin isn't wrong yet, and neither is the BAMM. Not until he gets taken out to sea. He may come back to the west. I don't think the fork is in it yet

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:15 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

BAM's is a basic model that takes the trajectory from AVN and adds some over unique dynamics. It's usually best when ran for shallow sheared systems, which this kinda of what Frank is....so. BAMM and BAMD are usually better, but I believe BAMS is an overall consensus of the three.

Edit: see the post two down for more. BAMS is just the shallow version of the model, not a combination of the others. The BAM-series models do best not necessarily for shallow sheared storms, but for storms in the deep tropics where there is little influence from mid-latitude features (and thus storms largely move with the large-scale flow). --Clark


LI Phil
(User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:15 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

i didn't say the bamd was wrong, just that it is quite the outlier...



Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:19 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

The BAM-series models take the GFS analysis & forecasts and computer trajectories from the storm's initial position out to 120hr. The BAMS uses the 850-700mb layer, the BAMM 850-400mb, and BAMD the 850-200mb layer, with a small correction for the Beta effect (due to Coriolis; generally <2kt in forward motion towards the northwest). Note that the GFS has been consistent in decoupling the low-level and upper-level circulations of Franklin since its inception, taking the surface features to the north and east while meandering the upper-level features back to the west and southwest.

The two BAM-series models we've been seeing are the BAMM and BAMD, neither of which include the lowest levels to any large degree in their forecasts. Thus, their forecasts are largely going to be a representation of what the GFS views as the mid & upper-level steering pattern. Given what I noted above, it's not too much of a surprise to see them steer the storm more towards the west and towards land. This suggests that the GFS has either too strong a ridge, too weak a shortwave trough, or some combination thereof. No matter the forecast, the GFS solution is a rather dubious one for Franklin (unless you believe the storm will become sheared apart and fizzle out through time, which wouldn't be a bad thing necessarily), making the BAMD and BAMM solutions rather dubious at best themselves.

You can't entirely discount all of the forecasts, but I'd rather go with a model that represents the storm better -- such as the NOGAPS or even our MM5 (which uses the GFS initial conditions to start the model, but diverges completely from there) -- when making a forecast. Both of those models -- and most of the others -- agree on taking it north and then northeast, with varying degrees of speed through time.

Edit: I've added some thoughts on Franklin, the NW Carib. disturbance, the central Atlantic feature, as well as Emily - still hounding Mexico - to the met blogs (also viewable on the front page).


LI Phil
(User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:24 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

yeah...what clark said...

actually, some good info on the models can be found here


Storm Cooper
(User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:29 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/atcfwb/docs/database/new/database.html

More model data as well


Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:31 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Thanks, obviously you know much more correct information then I.

Keith234
(Storm Chaser)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:38 PM
Is the center reforming?

Is the center reforming to the southeast?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:43 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Clark - thanks for all the info on the models. Someone asked why GOES floater 1 was still on Emily -- isn't it to track her right to the end of the lifecycle?

Lil Phil - I appreciate the many links you post (didn't bookmark some of the ones from yesterday so I hope they get the missing posts back).

Lysis - hee hee.

It will be a long time before I learn enough information to really understand what is posted here regarding forecasting. I can see I'll have to spend a lot of time organizing the many browser bookmarks, and also trying to understand all the different types of information that are used. Are many of the very knowledgeable folks here career meteorologists or involved tangentially?

Feel lucky that Franklin is not terribly interesting to me at the moment (I don't understand all the subtleties, can't even make heads or tails out of the sat pics, lack of experience, ability) - good that it hasn't grabbed too much of my time today because SHRRREEEEEK! the 2006 IKEA cat now available to download and peruse as a PDF. Sorry about the off-topic, could not control self!!!


LI Phil
(User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:47 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Quote:

Lil Phil - I appreciate the many links you post (didn't bookmark some of the ones from yesterday so I hope they get the missing posts back).




arrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

it's LI Phil as in "Long Island" not "Lil" as in rappers...

don't worry, though, you're only about the 20th person to make that mistake

what links are you looking for? i'll post those i have bookmarked if you tell me what you're looking for...


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 09:56 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Franklin looks interesting tonight....one of two things come to mind with just a glance at sats. Franklin is about to slow down or even turn to ne. Or the mid level circulation is getting sheared away from low level center. Which could be interesting, will have to see what recon finds.

Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 10:08 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Quote:

Franklin looks interesting tonight....one of two things come to mind with just a glance at sats. Franklin is about to slow down or even turn to ne. Or the mid level circulation is getting sheared away from low level center. Which could be interesting, will have to see what recon finds.




Actually looks like the low level clouds are moving S-SE...I agree...either the mid-level center is getting sheared away or the system is drifting south..I wonder if we'll even have a named system by morning


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 10:21 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

old data?

URNT12 KNHC 230204
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/01:48:30Z
B. 28 deg 11 min N
076 deg 22 min W
C. 850 mb 1462 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 135 deg 039 kt
G. 23 deg 021 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 17 C/ 1526 m
J. 19 C/ 1519 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C15
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF305 0306A FRANKLIN OB 11
MAX FL WIND 56 KT SE QUAD 00:04:20 Z


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Jul 22 2005 10:24 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Quote:

old data?

URNT12 KNHC 230204
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/01:48:30Z




Well that would be from almost 9pm CDT tonight, and I've never seen a pressure as low as 1003, only 1007, so probably -- new data.


LI Phil
(User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 10:27 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Storm FRANKLIN: Observed by AF #305
Storm #06 In Atlantic Ocean
Total Flights For Storm #06: 03
Date/Time of Recon Report: July 23, 2005 01:48:30 Zulu
Position Of The Center: 28 ° 11 ' N 076 ° 22 ' W (28.18° N 76.37° W )
Minimum Height Measured At Standard Level Of 850 Millibars: 1462 Meters (Normal: 1457 Meters)
Maximum Surface Winds Were Estimated At: 0 Knots (0 MPH)
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured At: N/A Nautical Miles (N/A miles) From Center At Bearing °
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 039 Knots (44.85 MPH) From 135°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 021 Nautical Miles (24.15 Miles) From Center At Bearing 23°
Minimum Pressure: 1003 Millibars (29.617 Inches)
Maxium Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Outside The Eye: 17°C (62.6°F) / 1526 Meters
Maximum Flight Level Temperature / Pressure Altitude Inside The Eye: 19°C (66.2°F) / 1519 Meters
Dewpoint Temperature / Sea Surface Temperature Inside The Eye: 17°C (62.6°F) / NA°C (NA°F)
Eye Wall Was Characterized As Being: OPEN NW
Eye Form Was Characterized As Being: C15
Center Fix Established Using: Penetration Radar Wind Pressure Temperature
Center Fix Established At Level(s): 850 Millibars
Navigational Accuracy Measured At: 0.02 Nautical Miles
Meteorological Accuracy Measured At: 3 Nautical Miles

Other Information:
1: Maximum Flight Level Winds Were 56 KT SE Quadrant at 00:04:20 Z


1:48 zulu time = 9:48 EDT


Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 10:39 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

I might be seeing things, but the low level swirl of clouds for Framklin looks like it's moving southwest the last hour or so

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10


Floridacane
(Weather Guru)
Fri Jul 22 2005 10:40 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Here's a pretty good link to understand the types of models that are out there.

http://www.hurricanealley.net/hurmdls.htm


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Jul 22 2005 10:40 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Margie -- well, it's not really over Emily right now. There are certainly people tracking it to the end of its lifecycle (using mainly GOES-10 instead of GOES-12 now for satellite imagery), but the main reason why floater is still over the western Gulf is that they can be slow in changing the floater locations for new situations. It's about in the right spot for the NW Carib. disturbance to appear in it soon, so I don't imagine they'll be shifting it too much in the near-future.

Phil -- at this rate, maybe you need a caricature for the "Lil' Phil" persona as your avatar!

Recon data -- that'd be new data. The Melbourne radar hints at an eye-like structure, but I didn't run with it because it's on the far edge of the radar and without being able to see to the east, it's tough to make that call. Obviously, recon has it much better. The convective pattern is still somewhat disorganized, but the surface circulation is still there. It's trying to get its act together, possibly even reforming a little to the SE like some have suggested (though that might be partly a visual trick due to the convective pattern). Like last night, I expect we'll see some better organization as we all wake up for the weekend.

NW Carib. disturbance: here's a snippet from the 10:30p ET TWO --

"UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION..."

Don't see that wording all too often with developing tropical systems. I don't expect this recon mission to be cancelled, unfortunately, and we might have something by the end of the day Saturday...depending on how well-organized it is once it emerges into the Bay of Campeche.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Fri Jul 22 2005 10:53 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Quote:

Phil -- at this rate, maybe you need a caricature for the "Lil' Phil" persona as your avatar!




I don't know anything, not anything at all about rappers. Well come to think of it I guess except Will Smith (does that count?). I just thought it sounded Southern -- y'all know what I mean, like, 'Lil Phil and Bubba went fishin'

actually, that sounds kinda gay...not that there's anything wrong with that


HurricaneSteph
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:18 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Is there any reason to give any validity to the two models still taking Franklin back towards Florida, a la Jeanne??

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti.asp


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:20 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

That is a old AM Model run latest has only One going SW back to FL. Always a chance maybe 20% it could happen.

HurricaneSteph
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:25 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Gotchya.....thanks. I did see that it was last updated at 7 am today, so things certainly have had time to change. It's just funny to see one model, out of the 5 or 6 out there, do something completely different. "Five out of six models agree, this one's heading to sea!" Er, what's up with the sixth one? Just HAS to be different.......

damejune2
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:28 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

I doubt it will double back to florida. The NHC's 11pm pos of the storm has it well north of the bahamas and their track has it heading out to sea....a shipping problem more or less.

I read some where on the NHC site that explains the differences in the models and how the bam medium and deep models don't take certain things into consideration. METS, want to help me out here? Maybe they mean certain atmosphere conditions?


damejune2
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:34 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

I also read some where that the two waves off Africa were not doing well. One dissipated because of the sand storm and the other is not organized at all. The one system that bears watching is the one in the northwestern Caribbean.

Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:38 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

I think the chances of a reversal have definately slimmed down as the day has gone on. I still think that Franklin needs to be booking past 70W heading generally NE or NNE to feel safe about it. I would say the chance of loopback is probably down around 10%. Not willing to completely count it out yet.

Interesting that inspite of such a poor structure that the pressure is still able to drop.


LI Phil
(User)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:46 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Quote:

I I read some where on the NHC site that explains the differences in the models and how the bam medium and deep models don't take certain things into consideration. METS, want to help me out here? Maybe they mean certain atmosphere conditions?




See posts 44797 (Keith234/Clark), 44799 (Clark), 44800 (LI Phil), and 44801 (Storm Cooper) from the previous page and post 44812 (Floridacane) from this page for model explanations.

Edited to help in finding those old posts --Clark


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Fri Jul 22 2005 11:52 PM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

The 12Z NOGAPS is an interesting run. Especially since the NOGAPS has been reliable this season so far. If I am reading it right, it appears to just barely avoid hanging the system in the no mans land of 70W. Still takes it out to sea. Hope it continues that way in future runs.

MM5 looks like an even closer situation. Yeah, still think the chance is only about 10%; of a return loop; but not ready to close the door on it.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Jul 23 2005 12:25 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

pressure still falling

URNT12 KNHC 230341
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/03:26:50Z
B. 28 deg 21 min N
076 deg 18 min W
C. 850 mb 1455 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 213 deg 055 kt
G. 113 deg 010 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 18 C/ 1526 m
J. 19 C/ 1517 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. OPEN W
M. C15
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 0306A FRANKLIN OB 16
MAX FL WIND 55 KT SE QUAD 03:23:30 Z

SE still has 55kts winds at fl level


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Jul 23 2005 12:41 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

also appears to me that an UL feature (spinning in W V ) is begining to spin around north florida (just east of tally) and appears to be moving south....looks to my eye it may be getting stronger... i think it will help the slow down the shear on west side of franklin for a little bit, but i am not 100% on the ne turn and exit with franklin, say 80% right now. Looks to be holding on the best he can right now, cuz he sure is taking a beating from shear on the west side.
I think the feature fixing to enter GOM or BOC midday tommorrow looks to be in very favorable conditions.


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sat Jul 23 2005 01:22 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Good catch on that weak upper-level feature. However, it could also be a detriment to Franklin's well-being; it could serve as a means of evacuating the outflow from the developing disturbance in the Bay of Campeche, serving to shear the storm even further by providing a focusing mechanism for such an event. It's pretty weak, though, so I can't see it spinning up and deflecting the shear, nor can I see it helping to further shear the storm all that much. We'll see come tomorrow what happens.

As for right now, though, Franklin's looking a little better on IR imagery, though the entire SW side is still exposed. The diurnal convective maximum should help to temporarily take care of that, maybe allow the storm to peek up to 55-60mph in intensity, but we'll likely see more of the same as today tomorrow unless the storm starts to accelerate to the NE.

QuikSCAT passes tonight show some broad turning over the Yucutan and out in the central Atlantic...unfortunately, the former is over land and had its east side gapped, while the latter was largely gapped as well. Convection has become more concentrated with the latter; it may just be a matter of time (re: a day or so) before we see an invest on that one. The weak area of low pressure with the Caribbean disturbance is convection-less at this time, but a large area of convection exists just along the western shore of the Yucutan/Belize. If the center reforms out there, development may take longer to get going; if not, then it may be more along the lines of what I posted earlier (with new convective development in the Bay of Campeche Saturday).


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Jul 23 2005 01:25 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

I Think Franklin is moving slower than the forecast, this will make loop a possibility, sadly.....

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Jul 23 2005 01:53 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea


After looking at the radar from cancun,
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad-canc.jpg
i think the system will enter GOM in mid morning now and be in GOM, or very far eastern BOC. I think we may get a pretty good system blowing up in morning, and would not be susprised if we had Gert by late tommorrow night, early sunday.

here' WV from system
Sat shots

I wouldn't take my eye of Franklin, just yet. Been a unusal season so far!!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Jul 23 2005 01:55 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

oh yeah:
with last statement

look at pressure

URNT12 KNHC 230541
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/05:01:30Z
B. 28 deg 36 min N
076 deg 12 min W
C. 850 mb 1448 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 279 deg 049 kt
G. 218 deg 034 nm
H. 1001 mb
I. 13 C/ 1529 m
J. 21 C/ 1521 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.12 / 2 nm
P. AF305 0306A FRANKLIN OB 20
MAX FL WIND 55 KT SE QUAD 03:23:30 Z


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Jul 23 2005 01:59 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

Recon done for the night or until next plane get's there in about less than 6hrs i think.

URNT11 KNHC 230555
97779 05444 70300 76210 76200 10015 7075/ /5765
RMK AF305 0306A FRANKLIN OB 23
LAST REPORT

so will have to see what franklin does in the morning!!!


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Jul 23 2005 02:01 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

1001 mb?

It was at 1007 last time right? about 3 hours ago?


HanKFranK
(User)
Sat Jul 23 2005 02:29 AM
Re: Franklin Ragged, Likely out to Sea

franklin looks like it's just about stopped moving again. the upper shortwave is getting close... it's gonna push it east some.. how far i'm not sure. i'm still betting on it breaking loose and turning back as the shortwave passes by and ridging builds over it early next week. surprised that it's managed to intensify some tonight in spite of the shear and small anticyclone trying to maintain near the storm.
91L entering the gulf tomorrow... whatever low was trying to develop with it friday near the belize/yucatan coast is probably going to reconsolidate along the west yucatan coast between campeche and merida. early track may be wnw, but i expect it to bend right towards the texas coast as the ridging to the north migrates eastward. that's my best bet... if that doesn't verify it'll get pushed more to the west. recon will clarify how quickly the system is going to develop tomorrow.
big 'ol wave nearing 40w has all its convection trailing it.. moving into and through a good upper environment. huge gyre with the wave, lots of subsidence though... further west it gets the better the chances convection will start to get through the dry layer. wave behind it around 20w is running through a much moister environment. mediocre model support for either, but worth watching... that lead wave especially if it starts blowing convection in that large gyre.
the east atlantic is open for business.. through late september.
HF 0728z23july


Brett
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Jul 23 2005 02:39 AM
Stalled

Is it me, or does it appear that either a) the mid-level circulation is heading NE and stalling, while the low level has moved a bit SW, or b) the whole thing has just stalled and the shear makes it appear the LLC is exposed? looks a bit odd right now.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Jul 23 2005 03:00 AM
Re: Stalled

Now I can say, franklin is going back to the west, is not catching the trough

zacros
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Jul 23 2005 05:27 AM
Re: Stalled

5 AM advisory shows Frank is still moving away from the coast. However, he has had a nice convective outburst overnight and does not appear to have moved to much. One thing is for sure, the bouys are up overnight and the wind is light and variable on the beach, something we normally don't see in Charleston until September. Gone Surfin .....

LadyStorm
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 23 2005 05:45 AM
Re: 5 am discussion

The NWS actually has a sense of humor. Here is an excert of the 5 am discussion on Tropical Storm Franklin written by Forcaster Franklin. I thought it was cute.


FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT.

THE
SHORT-TERM PROSPECTS FOR INTENSIFICATION ARE GOOD. HOWEVER...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE LONG RUN APPEARS LIMITED...WITH
AN INCREASE IN SHEAR AND A DECREASE IN SSTS SEEMINGLY IN THE
CYCLONE'S FUTURE. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT LITTLE OR NOTHING WILL
BE LEFT OF FRANKLIN...THE STORM...NOT THE FORECASTER...IN 2-3 DAYS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


Domino
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 23 2005 07:19 AM
Re: 5 am discussion

I loved that last discussion by Franklin (the forecaster, not the storm). That was very cute. I wondered when he'd get to be the forecaster for his name sake. I also wonder now how long before we have other storms with NHC forecaster names. You know they are going to be jealous! Hurricane Kelly, Tropical Strom Clark....coming to a CFHC near you soon.

NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Jul 23 2005 07:54 AM
Re: 5 am discussion

Hmmmm Woke up this a.m. and looked at the IR. Franklin doesnt seem to have moved in the last 8 hrs. Wassup?

Floridacane
(Weather Guru)
Sat Jul 23 2005 08:10 AM
Re: 5 am discussion

Franklin has actually moved about 55 miles or so NNE from his 11pm position last night.

Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sat Jul 23 2005 08:15 AM
Re: 5 am discussion

New Ariticle (Thread) posted.


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