MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 11:36 AM |
Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
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3:30pm Update
Franklin continues to become better organized, despite the central pressure remaining relatively high with the system. Remember that each storm and its environment are unique; a hurricane can form with a relatively high pressure if it is embedded in such an environment itself. The storm has the potential to become a hurricane later tonight or on Sunday.
Meanwhile, TD 7 has formed in the Bay of Campeche, with 30mph winds. The first full advisory package will be issued on the disturbance at 5p ET, with tropical storm watches likely for the Mexican coastline north of Punta El Lagarto. This system has the potential to become a weak tropical storm before making landfall in the next day or so; if it does so, it will be named Gert.
Original Update
Franklin is a small storm, nearly overshadowed by the western Caribbean disturbance earlier, it has remained around to confound.
The pattern around the storm has kept it at low Tropical Storm strength this entire time, and the steering around it still suggests it will head out to sea. However, if it holds off where it is for a while it will likely get split. With the lower level part shooting off to the northeast while the higher clouds hang where they are now, effectively splitting the system vertically. This would destroy itself as a tropical system.
It's still moving around, and the bamm models still want to take it back, while everything else shoots it off to sea. Because of the shearing going on in the system, it's becomeing difficult to track where Franklin will go and what franklin will be when it gets there. (Either continuing as a tropical storm, or falling apart)
We'll continue to watch it over the weekend.
The Caribbean System in now around the Yucatan, and will eventually move back into the Gulf. At that time it has a window to strengthen. So we're watching that too.
Event Related Links
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar Loop
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Tropical Storm Franklin
Floater Vis/IR Loop of Franklin with Storm Path Overlay
Animated Model Plot of Franklin
Model Plot of Franklin (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Franklin Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Franklin
Google Map of Franklin plotted along side Jeanne from Last Year
Google Map of Franklin And Erin (1995)
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 12:32 PM |
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
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Huh, check out the 8:am bamm run. I know it's not the most accurate but this storm is confusing.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200506_model.html
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 12:46 PM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
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Good morning all. Thank you MikeC for the Franklin links at the bottom of the post.
What a droll morning: another great title for a new thread, everyone got their wish that Franklin would discuss Franklin ("Franklin...the storm...not the forecaster...has become a little better organized overnight ... It is quite possible that little or nothing will be left of Franklin...the storm...not the forecaster...in 2-3 days."), and visions of 'Lil Phil from the south (picture someone large like a linebacker) have faded into the night.
Maybe the 2005 season will also be remembered as the season with great opening lines in NHC discussions.
Seems like it's going to be a wait and see kind of weekend?
Here's to hoping the white noise level stays low ("What are the chances Franklin will hit Florida?" "I'm planning to go to the beach on Sunday and want to know if I should worry?" "Is it possible Franklin will hit Florida and cross the Gulf and go over my house located in the FL panhandle?" "What are the chances that Franklin will hit Florida, cross the Gulf, and then come and provide some much-needed rain to my back yard?" "What are the chances that Franklin will hit the Carolinas?" "Is it starting to move a little west?" "Looks like it hasn't moved at all" "Is it moving NE?" "Is Franklin going to follow the same path as Jeanne?" "I think Franklin will do a Charley").
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 12:49 PM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
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Morning Mike-
Is the Yucatan disturbance still projected to head into the GOM and threaten Northeast Mexico and Texas?
I'm also thinking that Franklin will soon split itself and that the southern portion will go on to Florida.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 01:26 PM |
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"It's 1954 all over again"
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quoth Joe B. on his trop. vid. this am.
quite an interesting little disco by JB. Despite the modeling evidence to the contrary, and the official NHC forecast, JB is sticking to his guns that Franklin will drift eastward and hang out underneath the building ridge, then make the 'jeanne-like' loop backwards towards florida/georgia; gotta give him this, he's sticking to his guns. i'm NOT ready to stick a fork in Franklin and send him to the fish yet, but i'd say that the only ones who need to worry about him are some bahamians, shipping interests, and maybe bermuda further down the road.
The Yucatan system is definitely showing signs of development as it departs the peninsula and gets into the GOM...can't say for sure whether this one is headed into mexico or the tex/mex border, but it should be Gert by the time it does landfall in a few days...whether it's TS gert or Hurricane Gert remains to be seen, but with the pattern and the GOM temps, it's just ripe for development.
i know it's been discussed here, but has anyone REALLY looked at the temps off the east coast? 80's as far north as Jersey...in JULY! even LI is well into the 70's and this is almost unheard of...this does NOT bode well for a potential cane coming north...not well at all...once "our" cane season opens for bizness in mid-August, you can be sure i'll be watching the tropics with more than a passing interest.
Finally, there's the "MDR" (i think that's what it's called - the mean development region') where CV storms coming off africa can really intensify---temps there are also way above normals...looks like, as if 2005 hasn't been busy enough already, we've got a potential 1995-type season ahead, numbers wise...busted forecasts will be the rule, not the exception.
anyhoo, sorry for the long post, but i may be heading out of town for the weekend and not back till sunday late afternoon or early evening...just wanted to get my $.02 in now if that is indeed the case.
loveta hear what some real mets think about the things i've just thrown about so casually
is it 1954 all over again?
1954
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 01:57 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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While the subject of white noise is going on I will predict that some one will eventually imply that Franklin could be another Floyd, another Andrew, another Hugo or another Erin ----again!, Jeanne has been talked to death. Meanwhile I was surprised to see how little apparent tropical shape that er uh "Franklin" has in the early sats visual and IR. I would wonder if he is already undergoing a mass weight loss program with subtropical type features, or if he is wasting away from from trough disease.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 02:20 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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A lot more convection now, and it looks like moving south?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 02:20 PM |
Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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Mebbe I missed something, LI Phil, but, why would you look at what has happened this year and ask if it is '1954'?? We have had three landfalling systems in the north Gulf and none in 1954 in the same area.....and not much else in the map matches what has happened yet...so, I don't get that.
Also..MDR= main development region.
Not busting your chops, just curious about your 'analog' choice.
Guppie--I love the 'saying' at the bottom of your post.
Looks like the Gulf system will go to Mx...and the ballot is out, all the way around (intensity as well as track) on Franklin.
We have had some great discos by TPC this year, haven't we! I love the Franklin one today, it is the best!
MM
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 02:21 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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Quote:
is it 1954 all over again?
No, because it is 2005.
Sorry, I had to reply, even though I am very much not a met.
There are so many variables, that even if *all* weather conditions across a large region at one moment in time were similar to a moment in the past, because of the nature of chaotic systems, there would be no correlation to what would happen in the next moment and the next moment after that, much less for a period of succeeding days.
Molecules of air and water do not have a historical memory...they only respond to the forces around them at that moment.
While it makes sense to talk about generalities -- i.e. El Nino has a specific effect in general on overall hurricane development, it is not logical to reference a previous hurricane or a previous hurricane season and say that tomorrow will be like that.
Why mention 1954 anyway? Isn't it just because of the large number of deaths caused by Hazel -- something that would be rather unlikely considering that advance warnings of hurricanes has improved considerably since 1954. In other words, isn't it just a way to sensationalize and dramatize and cause anxiety (or perhaps a thrill depending on your nature), much in the same way the "New Orleans is doomed" scenario was brought up several times during Dennis' approach to the northern gulf coast.
JB is entertaining and fun to watch. I think this is mostly about entertainment and not science, and using a modicum of valid scientific knowledge to leverage into the realm of fantasy.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 02:22 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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Quote:
Mebbe I missed something, LI Phil, but, why would you look at what has happened this year and ask if it is '1954'??
um...if you actually took the time to read my post, you'd see that it was Bastardi who made the quote, not me.
and, yes, my bad, MDR = Main, net mean...need to proofread better
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 02:47 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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>>Why mention 1954 anyway?
JB's analogs are 1954, 1933 and 1995 among others. There have been (or will be) elements of all three seasons in what turns into 2005 according to him. In this case, don't shoot the messenger, Lil Phil.
2c
Steve
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 03:09 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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Yes I agree with you pretty much Margie. Dice and lottery balls do not remember what they did in the past, nor do they care. There is far more involved with tropics than statistics, and fewer constants, if any. Trying to isolate the constants over time to see how the variables affect them is the challenge. However, these parameters involving the tropics are quite random. El Nino can be an indicator of a less active Atlantic basin season, but not an absolute, particularly when figuring on how it affects our lives. Look at Andrew. El Nino - inactive season - devastating. On the other hand a season like 2005 - highly active - unpredictable - destructive. We like to categorize these things in nice buckets...1954, 1933, 1995, etc., based on similarity. Yes high SSTs, neutral ENSO, high salinity?...thermocline, but different set of circumstances. It is not 1954, it is 2005, and we're in a cycle of increased hurrricane activity. If JB can find the magic teleconnection to where these cyclones will landfall here in the states, God bless him. But really the only real constant we live with IS change. Random thoguhts - now back to painting - Cheers!!
| Biowatch |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 03:09 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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Thanks for the link to the 1954 season, Phil......I hate to admit it, but I actually remember this year as a kid........and think that's where my interest began....
Also, just an interesting note.....I got a call from the Yucatan yesterday with questions as to what was going on there....."Were they getting a hurricane that no one had told them about?" Apparently they had some winds that were higher than the ones predicted with Emily in some areas...(39 mph)
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 03:16 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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Hey Phil, I see no JB video online this morning. Did he do one?? I think you may have been looking at Fridays, unless maybe you subscribe for his service.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 03:18 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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Hi LI Phil
Glad to see you're not fixin to stick a fork in Franklin - he might not like that much (the forecaster, not the TS)
As far as the TS Franklin (someone asked me today when TS Elliot was gonna show up... eek)
The 11 am advisory is out
Quote:
Tropical Storm Franklin Advisory Number 9
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on July 23, 2005
............................................................................
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours...and Franklin could become a hurricane later today or on Sunday.
Who'd a thunk it? Another system that just keeps going ... and going... even when it looks kaput..
'shana
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 03:18 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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Good 11am discussion, Franklin is most likely a Hurricane in a very small region near the center. Like i said last night don't take your eyes off franklin just yet. He took on the shear on the west side and held together, (i think in part to that weak upper level feature from last night). Just saw recon had 62kts fl winds at 29.0n 74.8w.... also estimated SFC winds at obs 7 around 30kts.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 03:23 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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Well I wasn't going to bring it up, but -- what is the deal with the whole "teleconnection" thing? I guess the whole underlying mystical aspect escaped me. Here is Japan, and the Pacific, and this is like the Caribbean, and here's an island, this is like the Bahamas...it reminded me of Rock Hudson using sugar cubes and a napkin to describe his mythical ranch house to Doris Day in "Pillow Talk." He (JB, not the Rock) built up this analogy, and then didn't really go anywhere with it. Well, yes, an ocean here is an ocean there, and an island here is an island there, and there happens to be a tropical cyclone here and a tropical storm there. The only conclusion that leads you to is that it is hurricane season in both places, not exactly news.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 03:23 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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take a look at Water Vapor, having a time thinking he will catch the first ride out to see. Look over florida, see the spin? (UL-feature moving south between systems)
sat shot
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 03:30 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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I guess if you want to pay for JB's forecasts, that's your choice. I'd rather buy something more useful with my money.
Franklin is a non even for Florida.
Like LI Phil said, we're getting ready to ramp things up for the "real" hurricane season beginning in a few weeks. I agree that the air and water temps are very warm. Should be interesting.
Everyone enjoy the weekend.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 03:34 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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URNT12 KNHC 231531
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/15:13:20Z
B. 29 deg 28 min N
075 deg 02 min W
C. 850 mb 1456 m
D. 45 kt
E. 38 deg 032 nm
F. 158 deg 039 kt
G. 037 deg 029 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 19 C/ 1521 m
J. 21 C/ 1515 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0406A FRANKLIN OB 16
MAX FL WIND 62 KT SE QUAD 13:44:30 Z
Pressure up 1 mb, but winds look to increased some with convection
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 03:39 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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Yikes I was wondering why it was getting so dark here in the south metro. Take a look at what is about to clobber us (10:35 CDT):
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kmpx.shtml
Kind of a weird shape, usually when a line forms it is a lot longer.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 03:46 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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Franklin is overall increasing in convection, but pressure was up 1 mb probably due to some downdrafts. Yesterday steering currents died down somewhat and allowed it to dirft ene for a while. This has had serious implactionas on the track of the storm lattitude longitude wise, but based on the esemble means this will likely have no impact on the U.S. There is an outiside chance that this thing will become a hurricane later today, but with the trof nearing chances will decrease drastically, have to wait and see for that one. BAMM medium still takes it back to Florida, that is not a likely option at this time. I would side with the NHC now, but the forecast still remains tricky...
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 03:48 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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Looks like a bow echo...i would shut down the computer.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 03:50 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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based on that vortex...
Franklin made have moved a little south and west? (or a wobble)
11 am has 29.4 75.0
on this drop.... obs 16 29.28 75.02
does that seem right? i might be off
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 03:53 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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Reading Stewart's 11:00 am discussion, I am not ready to raise an all clear flag for Florida.
Quote:
JUST ONE PROBLEM...ALL OF
THE MODELS...TO SOME DEGREE...MOVE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SLOWLY
BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AFTER 72 HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS
SIMILAR TO THE MEDIUM AND DEEP BAM MODELS. GIVEN THAT FRANKLIN IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF AND SLOWER THAN ALL OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
FROM 06Z...AND THAT ALL OF THE MODELS FORECAST THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
TO BECOME NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY BY 72 HOURS...THE OFFICIAL TRACK
HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...OR SOUTH...OF AND A LITTLE SLOWER
THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
This may be more indicative of Franklin possibly tearing apart in the future. However, it also seems to indicate to me that the door is not shut on other options. I think the chances of a loop around are still small; but as long as that chance exists, I will be wary.
| EMS |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:00 PM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
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I found this part of the discussion interesting....in no way am I trying to wishcast, but I'm trying to understand what physics could force the system to go south and southwest. Could the awaited trough deflect Franklin rather than pick him up?
Most of the model guidance
...Excluding the much faster GFS and GFDL models...now slows down
Franklin through 72 hours and either dissipated the cyclone or
waits for another shortwave trough to pick up the cyclone and
accelerate it quickly to the northeast. Just one problem...all of
the models...to some degree...move the mid-level circulation slowly
back to the south and southwest after 72 hours. This scenario is
similar to the medium and deep BAM models. Given that Franklin is
currently south of and slower than all of the NHC model guidance
from 06z...and that all of the models forecast the mid-level flow
to become northwest to northerly by 72 hours...the official track
has been shifted to the right...or south...of and a little slower
than the previous forecast. This track is consistent with the GUNS
model consensus.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:00 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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I don't know that the water temps up in the NE US are all that much different than normal. Waters near-shore are warm, up to the low 80s during the day, but they cool back down to the mid 70s at night, a factor of how shallow they really are. The waters off-shore a bit are in the 74 degree range, actually below normal for this time of year (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anom.gif). Gulf Stream waters are about a degree above normal, but the waters in the NE US and along-shore are on average below-normal, and during the day so warm only as a factor of the diurnal cycle.
Another example of media irresponsibility: the following AP article absolutely gets wrong the reason why we will see extremely hot temperatures across the SE US Sunday into Monday (http://www.tallahassee.com/mld/tallahassee/12207115.htm).
"Tropical Storm Franklin strengthened as it spun away from the Bahamas on Saturday and moved farther east in the Atlantic, but blasts of warm air from its core were expected to bring extreme heat to the Florida peninsula."
--A warm-core cyclone is defined by having temperatures in its core warmer than its environment. Were there to be blasts of warm air out of the storm, it would be weakening -- not strengthening -- and for such a small storm, the effects would be very minimal. The only way for such a scenario to unfold (the storm bringing about warmer temperatures) were for the warm-core to make landfall, something that will not happen.
--The storm is already and will be even more so sufficiently far away from the coast not to have effects of subsidence on its periphery lead to warmer temperatures over land. Even if it remains near to shore, it would only affect parts of land nearest the coast -- and by that time, it will be north of the Florida peninsula.
--Most importantly, the large, strong ridge of high pressure currently over the central Plains is expected to move eastward, bringing about the warmer temperatures across the SE US...just like we've seen in the central Plains over the past week. We might touch 100 here in Tallahassee on Monday, for instance.
Pardon the rant, but I'd like to use that AP article as a learning experience regarding this storm, plus a reminder to challenge the common collective when something seems awry. People don't always get it right -- and in some cases, get it completely wrong -- and that's where education comes in.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:01 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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We get a lot of those lines that bow out here, in fact after every bout of warm humid weather...I have everything plugged into an outlet with surge protection. There's a nasty cell approaching my area.
Took a couple photos as it rolled in...green behind the shelf cloud, but we didn't see any straight-line winds or hail as of yet even though it started to rain.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:01 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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franklin has been an interesting liitle storm. Kinda confusing, but at least non lifethreatening. At least for right now...
'shana
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:05 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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Hails probably melting if the airmass is tropical...but you're in for a beating. I think the area's under a severe thunderstorm watch. A shelf cloud? Are you dealing with mesocyclone?
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:08 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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>>I found this part of the discussion interesting....in no way am I trying to wishcast, but I'm trying to understand what physics could force the system to go south and southwest. Could the awaited trough deflect Franklin rather than pick him up
No. It would be the clockwise flow around the high pressure behind the trof that would force it back on a westerly course. Will that happen? I don't know. But the flow around the trof wouldn't deflect it SW, if it were part of the steering regime. It would have SWly winds out front of it tending to steer it off to the NE. Hey, I got a big fat "F" in physics, but I do understand clocks.
Steve Hacket (vague RnR reference)
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:10 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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a surge protector is not going to help, especially with everything turned on. Trust me… my uncle in Orlando averages one tv per year.
| Unregistered User |
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| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:12 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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Quote:Quote:
Mebbe I missed something, LI Phil, but, why would you look at what has happened this year and ask if it is '1954'??
um...if you actually took the time to read my post, you'd see that it was Bastardi who made the quote, not me.
and, yes, my bad, MDR = Main, net mean...need to proofread better
Main "NET" mean?
While you proofread try spell checker too!
Be careful!
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:15 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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Quote:
>>I found this part of the discussion interesting....in no way am I trying to wishcast, but I'm trying to understand what physics could force the system to go south and southwest. Could the awaited trough deflect Franklin rather than pick him up
No. It would be the clockwise flow around the high pressure behind the trof that would force it back on a westerly course. Will that happen? I don't know. But the flow around the trof wouldn't deflect it SW, if it were part of the steering regime. It would have SWly winds out front of it tending to steer it off to the NE. Hey, I got a big fat "F" in physics, but I do understand clocks.
Steve Hacket (vague RnR reference)
I like to leave the physics for the models...Here's a link to the current 1000mb or surface level steering currents.
http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/huratl_slp.gif
Though tropical disturbances are steered much more by the 500/850 mb flow (depending on the size). Of course winds still flow counterclockwise around an anticyclone, and clockwise around a cyclone.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:17 PM |
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Quote:
Hails probably melting if the airmass is tropical...but you're in for a beating. I think the area's under a severe thunderstorm watch. A shelf cloud? Are you dealing with mesocyclone?
Not enough weather knowledge to know the answer.
When it rolled in there was that dark wedge shaped cloud stretching across the sky, with lighter greenish clouds behind it.
It's rolling through extremely fast and I think after a little rainstorm and some gusts it'll be done real soon. Didn't see any hail after all and I think maybe the main part of the cell slid by just north of where live.
I took a couple photos. What I can do is create another blog on blogger and put them there, and then come back and post the URL - it will take me a minute. Then you can tell me what you think.
OK here it is:
http://mek-weather-photo.blogspot.com/
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:17 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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I would suggest not to insult a moderator on any board as it can leave to serious consequences such as an IP BAN.
I think he was trying to be a little sarcastic there...could be wrong, though. --Clark
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:21 PM |
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OT, but weather relevant.
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Quote:Quote:
Hails probably melting if the airmass is tropical...but you're in for a beating. I think the area's under a severe thunderstorm watch. A shelf cloud? Are you dealing with mesocyclone?
Not enough weather knowledge to know the answer.
When it rolled in there was that dark wedge shaped cloud stretching across the sky, with lighter greenish clouds behind it.
It's rolling through extremely fast and I think after a little rainstorm and some gusts it'll be done real soon. Didn't see any hail after all and I think maybe the main part of the cell slid by just north of where live.
I took a couple photos. What I can do is create another blog on blogger and put them there, and then come back and post the URL - it will take me a minute. Then you can tell me what you think.
OK here it is:
http://mek-weather-photo.blogspot.com/
Pretty undefined for something with such high DBZ's...The greenish hue is most likely due to a hail shaft, but due to the shear heat the hail melts before it reachs the ground. Overall nice...
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:23 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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>>I like to leave the physics for the models...Here's a link to the current 1000mb or surface level steering currents
Naturally. But depending on the system in question, one might go for the 800, 500 or 200 as the steering levels change in different scenarios. In the case of the flow map you posted, timing would be everything. Will the midwestern high build in and merge with the offshore high as that pattern has been repeating itself since June? Or will Franklin be up and out by then? As always, timing timing timing. Of course that and $0.50 could buy you a coke at a discount retailer.
Steve
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:24 PM |
|
Re: OT, but weather relevant.
|
Hey guys -- while the bow echo may be fascinating in nature (I've been watching it part of the morning myself), could you all take it to the other weather events forum? Sorry...just that there's a strong tropical storm offshore with an uncertain future ahead of it. Thanks!
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:27 PM |
|
Re: OT, but weather relevant.
|
been reading NOAA/NASA/HRD stuff this morning about the IFEX and so forth, found an interesting picture
ER-2 ER-2 being chased by a?
it's looks like a bird!
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:35 PM |
|
|
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Re: OT, but weather relevant.
|
Look at the thread in the E and N forum...
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:35 PM |
|
Franklin, but also looking south (and east)
|
Franklin's been trying to get better organized this morning, coinciding earlier with the diurnal convective maximum, with a big flareup of convection on the east side of the system. It appears that the center has tried reforming a bit moreso on the north edge of the convective flareup -- a bit further east than at 11a in that advisory package -- and could be a sign of the storm trying to reach hurricane intensity. Current forecast track thinking remains largely unchanged, ultimately taking it out to sea, but not really as a consequence of the global model guidance and moreso a result of mesoscale model guidance (MM5) that keeps the storm intact plus the evolution of the midlatitude pattern over the coming days.
Meanwhile, the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche has lost a bit of its convection with the interaction with land, but still maintains a very healthy low-level signature. The recon flight out there has been canceled, but the TCSP/CAMEX field experiement group will have a high-level plane in the vicinity today, gathering potential genesis data. It's an excellent case for their purposes, particularly if this disturbance makes the leap to cyclone status. It still has a chance, not as great of one as before admittedly, but it could quickly get up there to TS status -- much like Bret earlier this season.
Out in the central Atlantic near 40W, the broad area of low pressure has reformed, per QuikSCAT data, but most of the convection and organization is just to the southeast of the wave. The Saharan dust layer is loosening its grip on the region, but any development is still going to be slow to occur. Of more interest in the short (and perhaps long) term is a wave just off of the coast of Africa, SE of the Cape Verdes. Convective complexes have been persisting in that area moreso than they did earlier this season, and this one is already fairly well organized. The FSU MM5 -- best at genesis cases -- calls for some slow development over the next two days with more rapid development later. Curiously, it slows it down quite a bit later on, but I would pay more attention to the development than I would to that. How well it holds together today into tomorrow will tell us how serious this disturbance could be at getting its act together and whether or not it'll be our first true Cape Verde storm of the year (Emily excluded for this case).
As HF said in the old thread last night, the east Atlantic is now open for business...all the way until the end of September. Waters are still above normal out there, shear is low, and the atmosphere is moist. Good bet we'll see something form out that way before the end of the month.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:40 PM |
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Re: Franklin, but also looking south (and east)
|
Do you think this year is a 1954 redux, or is that just media sensationalism that you noted in your other post?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:42 PM |
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Re: OT, but weather relevant. *DELETED*
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Post deleted by Clark
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:44 PM |
|
Re: OT, but weather relevant.
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not sure but look at fl winds
URNT11 KNHC 231603
97779 15554 70286 73910 15100 23049 18089 /2569
42240
RMK AF304 0406A FRANKLIN OB 19
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:45 PM |
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Re: Franklin, but also looking south (and east)
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Deleted by Moderator
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:47 PM |
|
|
|
Re: OT, but weather relevant.
|
Quote:
Hey guys -- while the bow echo may be fascinating in nature (I've been watching it part of the morning myself), could you all take it to the other weather events forum? Sorry...just that there's a strong tropical storm offshore with an uncertain future ahead of it. Thanks!
My apologies! Next time will remember to start a new thread in another forum.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:56 PM |
|
Re: OT, but weather relevant.
|
looks like we might have hurricane Franklin
URNT12 KNHC 231653
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/16:22:30Z
B. 29 deg 35 min N
074 deg 53 min W
C. 850 mb 1466 m
D. 65 kt
E. 135 deg 025 nm
F. 224 deg 060 kt
G. 135 deg 053 nm
H. 1001 mb
I. 16 C/ 1522 m
J. 20 C/ 1528 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0406A FRANKLIN OB 20
MAX FL WIND 62 KT SE QUAD 13:44:30 Z
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 04:58 PM |
|
|
|
Re: OT, but weather relevant.
|
At 1001mb? This is kind of interesting. In the short time I've been here I've seen the pressure go down and the winds catching up later, but haven't seen the winds increase before the pressure drops.
What is the typical range for pressures for a Cat 1?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 05:00 PM |
|
Re: OT, but weather relevant.
|
65 kt means the highest estimated surface wind is 65 knots on this particular inbound leg. The flight meteorologist looks at the sea surface and can estimate how strong the winds are by what the sea looks like.
Will see if it hold together and becomes the _ hurricane of the Season.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 05:01 PM |
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|
Re: OT, but weather relevant.
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Well according to the saffir simpson scale, everything greater then or equal to 980 could be a cAT 1. Keep in mind margie that the pressure of Frank is all relative.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 05:03 PM |
|
Re: OT, but weather relevant.
|
From the TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 (NHC) at 11am
Quote:
EVEN THOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS STILL ABOVE 1000 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING INCREASED TO 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...BUT THE INTENSITY COULD BE HIGHER SINCE FRANKLIN IS EMBEDDED IN A REGION OF MUCH HIGHER THAN AVERAGE SURFACE PRESSURES.
From what I understand, the important thing to know is the surrounding pressure - it's the pressure *difference* that is one indicator of intensity.,,,
'shana
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 05:19 PM |
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|
|
Re: OT, but weather relevant.
|
Quote:
Well according to the saffir simpson scale, everything greater then or equal to 980 could be a cAT 1. Keep in mind margie that the pressure of Frank is all relative.
Thanks, I see what you mean, because it is contained within an area of generally higher pressure.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 05:20 PM |
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|
Re: OT, but weather relevant.
|
Attack of trolls? Anyway, looks like if Clark's got the center right, there's almost an eastward movement at this point per setup. It's still not out of the realm of possibility that Franklin could either be decoupled (heh) or trapped.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html
Vigorous upper level low immediately to the west providing a bit of southerly shear on the west side of the system.
91L's running out of room, but it managed some broad surface cyclonic turning. I'm not sure if it will make it to TD status before landfall which is probably only 18-24 hours away in extreme SE Mexico.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Steve
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 05:26 PM |
|
Re: OT, but weather relevant.
|
Quote:
At 1001mb? This is kind of interesting. In the short time I've been here I've seen the pressure go down and the winds catching up later, but haven't seen the winds increase before the pressure drops.
What is the typical range for pressures for a Cat 1?
<delurk>
Not sure, but it is lower than that. I can find pressure info easily, but 99% of the sites don't make the distinction between Atlantic and Pacific pressures. In the Pacific pressures tend to be (as I recall) 10+ mb lower for the same wind speed, so I don't know which these sites are reporting. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir-Simpson_Hurricane_Scale for a nice chart that doesn't distinguish between Atlantic and Pacific presures.
Anyway, as for pressure, I've noticed that both Dennis and Emily seemed to hit categories based on wind speeds well before their pressure caught up. Since Shanna mentioned that the importance is the relative pressure, could it be that we have overall higher pressure in this part of the Atlantic this year than usual? I don't have a source of historical data so I don't know - just a guess though
</delurk>
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 05:28 PM |
|
Re: OT, but weather relevant.
|
Quote:
It's still not out of the realm of possibility that Franklin could either be decoupled (heh) or trapped.
<delurk>
Storm or meteorologist?
</delurk>
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 05:29 PM |
|
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
on the visible loop it look like it starting to take an east movement to almost south east. I might be wrong but may be it going to start making a loop in the next few hours
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 05:31 PM |
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|
|
Re: OT, but weather relevant.
|
On that note, I found it interesting that Dennis’s lowest pressure and his highest windspeed did not match up (how are they going to mark the track graph?). It bothers me that a hurricane’s peak intensity is measured by the pressure instead of the winds. After all, all pressure does is hurt your ears a bit.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 05:33 PM |
|
Re: OT, but weather relevant.
|
Pressure now up to 1003 wind speed 60Kt.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 05:36 PM |
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|
Re: OT, but weather relevant.
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The can't upgrade him into a hurrcane on a rising pressure trend.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 05:40 PM |
|
Re: OT, but weather relevant.
|
324
URNT12 KNHC 231716
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/17:04:10Z
B. 29 deg 41 min N
074 deg 48 min W
C. 850 mb 1460 m
D. 40 kt
E. 225 deg 013 nm
F. 307 deg 039 kt
G. 223 deg 022 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 16 C/ 1526 m
J. 19 C/ 1519 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF304 0406A FRANKLIN OB 25
MAX FL WIND 60 KT SE QUAD 16:05:10 Z
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 05:41 PM |
|
|
De-Coupling?
|
I wonder if we're about to see the de-coupling occur? The storm appears to be tracking to the ENE but the low level flow that's exposed on the northern side seems to be heading ENE.
Of course, I'm just using Mark I eyeball so....
Anyone else see what I think I'm seeing?
-Mark
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 05:46 PM |
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|
|
BOC Storm starting to spin up
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At least it looks like it is to me, Storms are starting to fire up near the current low level spin, with possible banding features already in place to kick start the storm, but it is still very close to the coast. So... it'll still take a while, but I would be more suprised if it didn't turn into something tropical.
-Mark
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 05:58 PM |
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Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up
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I dont know what everyone keeps seeing? Its still moving slowly NE, midlevel clouds are moving se from the trough to the nw outflow. Also this isnt a hurricane cause its pressure is too high. The 70mph is a high est due to convection downbursts or gusts. Outside of that it was noted in the discussion yesterday the storms winds are about 20mph lower then that. I would say Franklin is more like 50mph with gusts around 65-70mph. The Bam models are more like Bad models to me.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 06:04 PM |
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Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up
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I know that Franklin is most likely not splitting apart, but it looks like it. I mean, I used a sticky note to help figure out the straight line motion and everything!
But in all seriousness, it appears to have two componant motions to the curculation.
-Mark
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 06:20 PM |
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Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up
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Recon got cancelled out there, but the TCSP/CAMEX plane is on its way. And rightfully so, considering the SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT that came out of the NHC a little while ago
It's not very well organized, but it's something. And it too, like so many of the storms this year, is very small.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 06:24 PM |
|
Re: De-Coupling?
|
Looks like the storm is continuing to reorganize, but I don't think it's about the shear out or collapse. The infrared imagery is kinda deceiving, giving the apperance of something awry at foot, but the visible imagery shows the center still on the north side of the convective mass, not moving a whole lot but trending eastward.
My best guess is that the center is continually trying to reform underneath the deepest convection, but having a tough time staying there due to moderate shear across the storm. It's not going to not get to hurricane intensity without a fight.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 06:24 PM |
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Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up
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been looking at sat and see the low level swirl...just on left side of image. Looks to have a way to go though. There is a surface low there, but like the statement reads, it's broad!
goes-11
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 06:25 PM |
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Re: "It's 1954 all over again"
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Not to start a flame war (promise) but, there is no way to tell from your post that Bastardi said that....no enclosed quotes at the end....so I thought it was you. No harm meant!!
Also,....got my user name right this time.
Margie---you are very insightful, great posts. Agree with you about Joe.
MM
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 06:31 PM |
|
Re: OT, but weather relevant.
|
That is a shadow on a cloud.
MM
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 06:31 PM |
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Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up
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You know if Frankline was about 100 miles more or less to its sw maybe near 77w and 27N right now,, i would probably favor the Bamn model. The trough axis is about 78W right now and the northern part is moving rapidly E. Franklin is just barely ahead of it but the trough should bypass him. Thing is is Frankin too far east for the ridge over the Plains to capture him tomorrow? In the meantime another shortwave trough will ride the ridge and dropdown early-mid next week. Will Franklin Sunday afternoon thru Monday stay west of 72N? or meander SSE-SSW? There are questions but right now we have to stay on the original thinking he will catch the 2nd trough near 70W and 31N and get pushed NE during the middle of next week.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 06:31 PM |
|
Re: De-Coupling?
|
Question for ya Clark...
Looking at the latest WV Loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html
Will that chunk on energy that has been ripped off the center make it to the Coast?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 06:33 PM |
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Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up
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sorry about my SP LOL I type too fast and too lazy to go back to correct. I should log in on my normal account.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 06:37 PM |
|
Re: OT, but weather relevant.
|
Hmm, someone said there is a special trop dist statement...where is it, I don't see it on the TPC page?
MM
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 06:37 PM |
Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up
|
Well the good old Bamm or (BAD) model now takes Franklin also out to sea. No more of a east florida hit.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 06:40 PM |
|
Re: De-Coupling?
|
URNT40 KWBC 231800
NOAA2 WXWXA SUSPECT
just completed it's first obs on BOC system, and AF304 out at Franlkin is heading home.
I have been looking at alot of sats and surface conditions and am thinking that Franklin maybe moving more East the north now. he has great outflow on south of center in the upper levels, but will the low level out run the mid level circulation.... i think that it's starting to look somewhat like that....will low level move to the ne and other parts turn the loop? time will tell. Very interesting strorm now.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 06:45 PM |
|
Re: OT, but weather relevant.
|
Quote:
Hmm, someone said there is a special trop dist statement...where is it, I don't see it on the TPC page?
MM
Atlantic SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
'shana
It's on the TPC page just below the Franklin info
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 06:57 PM |
|
|
|
Attack of the trolls...
|
Quote:
Attack of trolls? Anyway, looks like if Clark's got the center right, there's almost an eastward movement at this point per setup. It's still not out of the realm of possibility that Franklin could either be decoupled (heh) or trapped.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html
Vigorous upper level low immediately to the west providing a bit of southerly shear on the west side of the system.
91L's running out of room, but it managed some broad surface cyclonic turning. I'm not sure if it will make it to TD status before landfall which is probably only 18-24 hours away in extreme SE Mexico.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Steve
The next star wars movie
anywho, Franklin may have some decoupling going on per the BAMM later today when the the axis of the trof nears. Climatology does argue that most if not all systems that form with 50 nm's of Franklin makle Landfall on CONUS. So maybe it's on to something. Speaking of the BAM models, do they take into account climatology and persistence?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 06:59 PM |
|
Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up
|
Remember, pressure is relative when it comes to wind speed. For a tropical storm -- not a hurricane -- the wind field balance is going to have some contribution from the environmental pressure gradient. Pressures around the storm are relatively high, helping to contribute to the strong winds. I believe that the surface winds may not quite be 70mph (picking nits here), but they aren't 50mph either. The NHC and the hurricane hunters know what they are doing out there...
A few years ago, we had a tropical storm with a pressure near/over 1020mb, embedded within a region of higher pressures (~1040mb). While most hurricanes have pressures under 990mb, you can see them with pressures in the 990-1000mb range as well (admittedly rare). Franklin's likely not a hurricane, but it's trying to get there.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:03 PM |
|
Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Keith -- no, they don't. That's just the CLIPER model.
MikeG -- I also think that short-term motion is more easterly, but I do think part of that can be attributed to reorganization towards the colder cloud tops to the east.
Cocoa Beach -- Not sure I see that piece of energy you mention, but I do see an upper-level low over the Florida Peninsula right now. Perhaps that is what you are speaking of?
As an aside, it appears outflow with Franklin has improved quite a bit to the south and east of the storm, with very good transverse banding (the cirrus cloud features) in both regions. If the center gets under that cloud mass and stays there, it could deepen rather suddenly (albeit likely not drastically).
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:05 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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I already posted that the BAMM or (BAD) model now thats Franklin out to sea. NO more of a florida possiblity.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:06 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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....but how would the surface low move faster then the outlfow boundary? Steering currents at the surface are much weaker then at the higher levels.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:07 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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I am glad to see Florida spared- but we do need moisture on the east coast, believe it or not.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:08 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Good..so this storms history, and my forecast verifies.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:08 PM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
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Those BAMM models could all change during the day today or tommorrow and bring it back to florida you never know what this wierd storm is going to do
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:10 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Just because a relatively poor model at these latitudes (the BAMs) decides to shift the track out to sea doesn't mean its right! There seems to be something still screwy with Franklin. He seems like a wanderer.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:19 PM |
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|
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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It's only that the other models seemed to point Franklin out to sea with the trough and other variables being considered. Of course, anything is possible.
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:23 PM |
|
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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The BAMM models did the same thing with Jeanne last year. Matter of fact, they all did. Here's the animated model forecast for Jeanne.
http://www.wunderground.com/auto/miamiherald/hurricane/at200411.asp?imgfeature=verification
When she made landfall, the models still had her going North, east and south. Franklin is still too close for me to just say he isn't coming at all and leave it at that. I agree with Steve, something with Franklin is screwy.
| COgal |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:30 PM |
Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Thanks! I forgot how wild and crazy she was!
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:31 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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OH no Joe, odds are it will go seaward, but the logic in scott's posts was earlier that BAMM/BAMD are bad models, and their solution to take Franklin back west is wrong. Then when they show Franklin out to sea they are right! I'm picking nits here, but the better way to express that is to say all the global and tropical model solutions are out to sea, therefore this agreement is the most likely solution. The other way made it sound like since the bad model is now out to sea, it is correct. ARRGG! franklin needs to get going, he's driving me NUTZ!! I know what you meant Scott.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:35 PM |
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|
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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I wonder what variable entered the picture for the BAM models to agree that seaward motion was the solution.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:35 PM |
Starting the loop
|
Could be starting his loop. E than SE
I do'nt think he is going out to sea,
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:37 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Hey Lori, where are you in Palm Bay SE/NW/.NE??? I've been here since 87. Just curious.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:37 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Outflow boundary? Huh? Sorry, I'm not quite following.
Outflow boundaries are surface features as well...albeit with forcing from downdrafts aloft. I don't see any outflow boundaries with Franklin or the other disturbance, so I'm not quite sure that I'm following this discussion, unless you are talking about the thunderstorms in the Central US, which itself is a derecho and not an outflow boundary.
scottsvb -- I'd wait for another run or two of the BAM-series models before declaring an all-clear for Florida. It's close and the threat is lessening, but it's not 100% yet.
Oh, and for everyone's general consumption...we have TD 7 in the Bay of Campeche per the NHC.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:37 PM |
|
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
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Some of these models are probabley not handeling Franklin that well that why florida it still not out of the woods till the system goes out to the sea
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:39 PM |
|
|
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Near Malabar and Emerson in NE
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:41 PM |
|
Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up
|
So according to the Special Tropical Disturbance Statement we've got TD 7 ... with advisories starting at 4pm CDT. Also
Quote:
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO...MOST LIKELY NORTH OF PUNTA EL LAGARTO.
Does this mean they might be naming TS Gert at 4pm? Or am I overanticipating?
'shana
edited to add... I was wondering how they picked points to say 'north of ...' and tripped over this while trying to figure out where the heck in Mexico they were talkin about..
Official Breakpoints
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:51 PM |
|
|
Re: Starting the loop
|
Quote:Vis sat. loop seems to be showing a SE drift in the most recent couple of frames. Hmmmm....
Could be starting his loop. E than SE
I do'nt think he is going out to sea,
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:52 PM |
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Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up
|
Probably not quite a TS -- they note a 25kt TD, subject to change by the time the official package is put out -- but enough of a threat to become one in a short span of time to hoist tropical storm advisories. They are likely on the line with those in charge in Mexico now about that very topic.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:56 PM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
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I do agree i see a east to south east motion with tropical storm Franklin on the visible satalite
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:56 PM |
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Re: Starting the loop
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you mean you are hoping it loops back,,,so u have something to get excited about
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:59 PM |
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Re: Starting the loop
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Quote:I recall one doing a loop and hitting Florida last year,hmmmm what was her name?Jeanne.Hopefully this will not be a repeat.Quote:Vis sat. loop seems to be showing a SE drift in the most recent couple of frames. Hmmmm....
Could be starting his loop. E than SE
I do'nt think he is going out to sea,
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 07:59 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Deleted by Moderator
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:01 PM |
Re: Starting the loop
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wobble south?.. if there is such a thing..
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:02 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Holy Moly! Was that really called for?
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:04 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Quote:I'm thinking not and the mods will be here soon.
Holy Moly! Was that really called for?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:04 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Hey guys, Dont abuse the Unregistered status, It gets really boring when you can't reply.....
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:04 PM |
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Re: Starting the loop
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Got a question for those who think it might loop back around?
if it does or when it loops around how long or how many days does it take to complete the loop and hit Florida? :?:
| Shalafi |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:06 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Quote:
Holy Moly! Was that really called for?
My word...no it wasn't but then again it was probably someone who didn't read the disclaimer that states this is a site for weather hobbyists and NOT an official source for info. I wish people would understand that....
Thanx mod!
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:07 PM |
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Re: Starting the loop
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wackier things have happened, but if Franklin has started its loop, I'd be rather suprised. Personally I think the storm splitting in two is more likely, with the midlevel center reforming a LLC at some point (I would presume that it would retain the name Franklin if that happen? or not?)
-Mark
| AlexK |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:07 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Yay, Im actually registered now...anyway people, I dont think we need any personal attacks.
As for any loop, very premature to believe that. It could just be drifting southeast, then about to accelerate away from the mainland.
Or it could be looping. thats why we ought to watch this, but we need not wishcast.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:07 PM |
Re: Starting the loop
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could someone give me the reasoning to why it may "loop"? thanks much
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:09 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Quote:Agreed. Could be simply a SE wobble before resuming a NE track. Deserves watching, though.
Yay, Im actually registered now...anyway people, I dont think we need any personal attacks.
As for any loop, very premature to believe that. It could just be drifting southeast, then about to accelerate away from the mainland.
Or it could be looping. thats why we ought to watch this, but we need not wishcast.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:09 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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I know it's off topic and will probably be moved, but why not just register? even if you only make a few posts a year, at least they're *your* posts and under your ID. That way you can enjoy the site and post even when locked down.
and again my apologies for continuing wandering off topic, particularly with 2 tropical systems in the Atlantic!!!
-Mark
| AlexK |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:10 PM |
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Huri Hunter shut up.
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Why can we all be civil. but we cant right now, so i merely ask Hurihunter to "desist from speaking"
Your above post is obscene and degrading. It belongs on no board, much less this one.
Someone find a moderator please
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:13 PM |
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Re: Huri Hunter shut up.
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I think this guy deserves an IP Ban
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:13 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Quote:Make that the Atlantic basin since one is in the far SW GOM and not quite a named storm.
particularly with 2 tropical systems in the Atlantic!!!
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:13 PM |
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Re: Starting the loop
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Mark -- that'd be a tough call by the NHC, were it to occur. Ivan gave them precedent to keep the same name, but if you get two distinct trackable entities...well, that's a new one!
Franklin may have turned more towards the east, but I don't think there's any true southward motion yet. It's more a reflection of the cloud pattern trying to become better organized coincident with the center (and vice versa); overall, the motion is generally east. The storm is likely to move slowly for some time to come; while a loop is not out of the question, there's no telling to what it might do if one occurs. What may happen is a small loop in place followed by a northeastward motion...or just wobbles around a slow overall motion.
Even if it does end up looping, any potential threat to land is a good number of days away. Like I mentioned earlier, you can't sound an all-clear for the coastline yet, but the threat isn't as high as it once was.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:16 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Nevermind, it was a stupid question.
No, no, not necessarily...I just wasn't quite following. Send me a PM and I'll try to latch on sometime this evening. --Clark
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:16 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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true
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:19 PM |
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Re: Starting the loop
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Very useful information.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:27 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Quote:Quote:Make that the Atlantic basin since one is in the far SW GOM and not quite a named storm.
particularly with 2 tropical systems in the Atlantic!!!
*grins* Semantics...it's all semantics! But you are correct. Atlantic Basic is more accurate. I was just being lazy.
Speaking of unnamed storms, I'm rather suprised they actually called it a depression, I've seen much better looking systems go unnamed... what makes this one stand out, potential for development?
-Mark
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:28 PM |
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Re: Starting the loop
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Looks like the center is reforming more toward the East in the latest vis sat pics. Still, the upper level outflow seems to be expanding toward the SE. To hard to tell if it's a distinct motion or just a result of some reorganization within the environment.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:31 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Quote:Could be the closed circulation coupled with the wind speed and pressure. They also noted the convection building near the COC.
Speaking of unnamed storms, I'm rather suprised they actually called it a depression, I've seen much better looking systems go unnamed... what makes this one stand out, potential for development?
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:34 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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No Keith, this is a stupid question (albeit one that has been bothering me)...
when a cyclone "loops" do the quadrants swap, so to speak? Otherwise, it would be going backwards. How does this work?
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:36 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Quote:
No Keith, this is a stupid question (albeit one that has been bothering me)...
when a cyclone "loops" do the quadrants swap, so to speak? Otherwise, it would be going backwards. How does this work?
Not a stupid question
your first instinct is correct, the quadrants are based on the direction the storm is moving, so if the storm is moving west, then the northwest side is the 'right front quadrant' if the storm is moving east, it's the southeast side that becomes the 'right front' quadrant.
Follow up question, what happens if the storm is stationary?
which quadrant is which then? is it based on the last definate motion of the storm before it stalled, or do they just avoid using quadrants to make sure people don't get more confused? 
-Mark
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:37 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Quads remain the same NE is NE no matter what, etc.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:41 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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He-he-he! The two year old has been sent to his room. Thanks to the mods.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:41 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Lysis/jeff
the quads remain the same.. but the strongest winds are just located in a different part ot the storm.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:43 PM |
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T.D 7 forms in the BOC
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000
WTNT22 KNHC 232024
TCMAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072005
2100Z SAT JUL 23 2005
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA
NORTHWARD TO CABO ROJO...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO NORTHWARD TO
LA CRUZ.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 93.2W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 93.2W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 92.9W
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 19.9N 94.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 20.4N 96.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 21.1N 97.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 21.9N 98.8W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 22.5N 101.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 93.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z
FORECASTER STEWART
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:45 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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TD 7 forms and Franklin is up tp 70mph, moving ene at 9mph.
WOW what a season!
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:47 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Quote:I had good English teachers.
Semantics...it's all semantics!
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:47 PM |
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Re: BOC Storm starting to spin up
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Tropical Depression Seven Advisory Number 1
Statement as of 4:00 PM CDT on July 23, 2005
is now out. (And it's only 3:45 CDT lol)
Quote:
At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Depression Seven was
located near latitude 19.4 north... longitude 93.2 west or about
180 miles... 290 km... west of Campeche Mexico and about 295
miles... 475 km...east-southeast of Tuxpan Mexico.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph
... 9 km/hr...and this general motion...at a slightly faster forward
speed...is expected for the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph... 45 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and
the depression could become a tropical storm by early Sunday.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb...29.85 inches.
Looks like they think it's goin into Mexico but south of where Emily hit a few days ago...
'shana
I seriously need to learn to type faster than Keith!
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:48 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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I hope someone can help me out here. I've posted a lot but am obviously quite the newbie, and have not really understood what I have seen in the sat images for Franklin from practically day one, which is a little frustrating. I am trying very hard to read the sat images. So please tell me if this is correct.
I can see something spinning counterclockwise to the west over the FL and that is a low, right? Then to the N is some kind of boundary? It is less distinct now than some hours ago - what is that.
It looks like, where Franklin is, I am seeing two different layers of clouds spinning 'round instead of one, not exactly on top of each other. Why is that. How are folks determining where the center is and the direction, if this is the case. Is it a matter of being very skilled at looking at the sat images? Am I wrong in seeing what appears to be a move to the S for one layer of clouds and a move to the E for another lower layer?
At least I did see one thing - the transverse banding Clark was talking about. I looked it up on the web and then did see it on the sat image. I guess cirrus are the easiest clouds to recognise.
| yecatsjg |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:48 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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So, do I have this right? When Frances came through it wasn't too bad here in Bradenton. When Jeanne came through we thought it was worse. Is that due to the flip/turn/loop? We were always on the south-west side of the storm, which usually isn't bad....but in the loop did that turn the "bad" side around?
Stacey
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:50 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Quote:
TD 7 forms and Franklin is up tp 70mph, moving ene at 9mph.
WOW what a season!
Well Franklin's window to become a hurricane is winding down fast. The trof axis is digging, and dry air is already starting to be entrained. Unless the center reforms to the south and decouples under the outflow cloud mass, the storm will quickly lose it's intensity...
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:51 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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No; when Jeanne headed for Florida, it was moving towards the west, making the right side of motion -- the northern quadrant -- that favored for the strongest winds. Many factors can come into play once a storm hits land, however, including downdrafts and friction (to name two).
The direction with respect to the storm changes when the storm changes direction (e.g. right front, left front, and so on), usually leading to the strongest impacts of a storm being felt in whatever region is the right front region, but the actual quadrants themselves (NE, SE, SW, NW) of course do not change. Land complicates matters, as described above.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:53 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Clark FYI.... it is a Bellsouth account in Miami. They are working with me now on this.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:54 PM |
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TD7
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It is worth noting that the center of TD 7 that the NHC is tracking is just along the northern shores of the Mexican coastline in the southern Bay of Campeche, currently lacking convection -- and not the larger cloud mass to the north and west. The whole region is an area of broad cyclonic turning, but they are tracking a center just along shore at this time. As the storm organizes, expect all of this to consolidate into a better defined system.
More tonight or tomorrow...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:56 PM |
Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Deleted by Moderator
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:57 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Quote:
I hope someone can help me out here. I've posted a lot but am obviously quite the newbie, and have not really understood what I have seen in the sat images for Franklin from practically day one, which is a little frustrating. I am trying very hard to read the sat images. So please tell me if this is correct.
I can see something spinning counterclockwise to the west over the FL and that is a low, right? Then to the N is some kind of boundary? It is less distinct now than some hours ago - what is that.
It looks like, where Franklin is, I am seeing two different layers of clouds spinning 'round instead of one, not exactly on top of each other. Why is that. How are folks determining where the center is and the direction, if this is the case. Is it a matter of being very skilled at looking at the sat images? Am I wrong in seeing what appears to be a move to the S for one layer of clouds and a move to the E for another lower layer?
At least I did see one thing - the transverse banding Clark was talking about. I looked it up on the web and then did see it on the sat image. I guess cirrus are the easiest clouds to recognise.
1. The NHC is determining where the center is by seeing where the lowest pressure is.
2. What you are seeing is the different cloud layers, e.g high level and low level clouds. They don't necessarily move in tandem, but it gives you a perspective of how deep the storm actually is.
3. To the north there a trof digging down, that was associated with the rain and severe thunderstorms that we had in the NE yesterday.
4. Cirrus clouds are the easiest to reconginze because they are the highest. Figuring out clouds from visible satellite imagery takes time and practice.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 08:58 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Quote:Jeanne came a bit closer and was a bit stronger than Francis over West-central FL.
So, do I have this right? When Frances came through it wasn't too bad here in Bradenton. When Jeanne came through we thought it was worse. Is that due to the flip/turn/loop? We were always on the south-west side of the storm, which usually isn't bad....but in the loop did that turn the "bad" side around?
Stacey
Look at it this way. The storm spins (rotational) and also moves along a given direction (transaltional). Typically, as a storm moves WNW or NW, the strongest winds are in the NE quadrant (rotational speed plus translational speed) and the weakest winds are in the SW quad (rotational speed minus translational speed). If the storm is moving NE, then the strongest quad would be the SE.
| yecatsjg |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 09:02 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Quote:
If the storm is moving NE, then the strongest quad would be the SE.
So, Charley's strongest quad was the SE instead of the NE, then, right?
Stacey
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 09:05 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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yeah... he was moving east north east at an oblique angle so the south east was his right front.
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 09:05 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Quote:
Quote:
If the storm is moving NE, then the strongest quad would be the SE.
So, Charley's strongest quad was the SE instead of the NE, then, right?
Stacey
Correct becasue Charley at landfall was moving due east.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 09:06 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Quote:Technically, yes.
Quote:
If the storm is moving NE, then the strongest quad would be the SE.
So, Charley's strongest quad was the SE instead of the NE, then, right?
Stacey
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 09:07 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Actually the best way to think about it, take the vector the storm is moving in. everything that is to the right of the center of the storm is going to have that motion added into the winds. The strongest (theoretical) influence the forward motion will have is perpendicular to the forward motion. So whatever heading the storm has, 90 degrees clockwise from that heading will be the area with the strongest winds... so if charley was moving in a heading of 045, the strongest winds would be in the area of the storm that would be about 135 degrees. Of course, it's probably more complicated than that, but that's how i figure where the strongest winds would be...
I wish I had graphs.
-Mark
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 09:19 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Quote:
Well Franklin's window to become a hurricane is winding down fast. The trof axis is digging, and dry air is already starting to be entrained. Unless the center reforms to the south and decouples under the outflow cloud mass, the storm will quickly lose it's intensity...
OK now I think I can see what you are talking about on the sat image. One end of the trof, as it has moved SE, is curving and cutting into the edge of Franklin just to the NNW, or rather is getting pulled in at that location. Well I guess if you go by the actual center of the circulation, those spinning lower clouds, it seems to be wrapping around it, west and south of it.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 09:38 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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can someone give me the coordinates from the last recon on franklin
the ones i am getting from hurrtrak cant be right
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 09:40 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Ha! The Ramsdis floater overshot Franklin. Likewise, TWC's tracking map is almost completly north of the cyclone. C'mon guys!
EDIT: look to the top left of this page for the coords (29.9N 74.3W?)
.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 09:56 PM |
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The Weather Channel
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So, what is the weather channel showing the storm doing?
And is it just me, or does the BOC depression look like it's partially onshore? I'm wondering if it's going to have to reform back into the open water ... Ok, Looking further, it looks like the LLC is reforming to the NW of the former LLC. Still horribly disorganized. But it's there.
-Mark
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 10:04 PM |
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Re: The Weather Channel
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Quote:The COC is very near the coast. The NW motion will move it away from the coast as time progresses.
And is it just me, or does the BOC depression look like it's partially onshore? I'm wondering if it's going to have to reform back into the open water ... Ok, Looking further, it looks like the LLC is reforming to the NW of the former LLC. Still horribly disorganized. But it's there.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 10:05 PM |
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Re: The Weather Channel
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its only July 23rd and we have Franklin and possibly Gert!!
When will all this development end?!?!
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 10:05 PM |
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Regarding T.D 7.
|
T.D 7 is located in a area of broad cyclonic flow, and the depression that they classified happens to be partially onshore. Also keep in mind development could be very rapid, with the BOC hosting some of the warmest temperatures in the atlantic, and shear is low. The monster high in the central plains will govern movement, but due to the fact that it is ill-defined movement will be wobbly.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 10:08 PM |
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Re: The Weather Channel
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This will end when all the warmest waters have been turned up. The cooling phase of winter will probably stop all TS development by December. But then you will have converted over to Blizzards which are for all intents and purposes winter hurricanes.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 10:11 PM |
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Re: The Weather Channel
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Quote:
This will end when all the warmest waters have been turned up. The cooling phase of winter will probably stop all TS development by December. But then you will have converted over to Blizzards which are for all intents and purposes winter hurricanes.
Actually, at the rate things are going, I'm wondering if we're going to see something really crazy like a january Sub-Tropical Storm develop. Would that count in the 2006 season or 2005 if it happened?
-Mark
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 10:12 PM |
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Re: The Weather Channel
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2005 1/2
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 10:13 PM |
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Re: Regarding T.D 7.
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from what I can tell TD 7 appears to be in the very extreme southern central BOC and moving off to the WNW... unless it slows down even more or changes track to a more northerly component this system will not have much time to do anything and should be inland nto Mexico within the next 24 hours or so... still could get TS status however... at the moment it just looks like a broad area of low pressure and overall associated convection not all that impressive either...
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 10:13 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls... *DELETED*
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Post deleted by Storm Cooper
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 10:14 PM |
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Re: The Weather Channel
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OK Franklin must have strengthened because now even I can see it on the sat image, LOL. It is moving east ahead of the trof and in the past hour a lg burst of convection - correct or no?
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 10:25 PM |
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Re: The Weather Channel
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Correct Margie, but he is getting pushed from the NNW and the center may be re-organizing further to the SE. Notice the largest burst of convection to the SW of the center now bursting. Generally its moving along to the east, but I'm interested in seeing if he adjusts himself
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 10:25 PM |
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Re: The Weather Channel
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I just noticed that the NWS has posted a Tropical Storm Warning for CAPE FEAR TO 31N OUT TO 32N 73W TO 31N 74W.
500 PM EDT SAT 23 JUL 2005
It's an offshore warning.
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 10:25 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls... *DELETED*
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Post deleted by Clark
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 10:25 PM |
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Pattern favoring development
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Quote:
its only July 23rd and we have Franklin and possibly Gert!!
When will all this development end?!?!
Well with the MJO giving off in it's weak phas, a negative NAO, and a near neutral el nino index I would suppose we would be good for a couple weeks. Especially with the large area of disturbed weather associated with the ITCZ and a couple tropical waves. I would say that there should be at least one area of development (not necessarily the same one) for the next 3 weeks...
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 10:26 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Don't bother replying to losers like him...
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 10:27 PM |
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Re: Attack of the trolls...
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Quote:Don't feed the troll.
Don't bother replying to losers like him...
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 10:29 PM |
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|
Re: Regarding T.D 7.
|
Naw, what your seeing is outflow cirrus clouds. The exposed LLC is just making it off the Yucatan. It's not that impressive yes, but it will start strenghtening in the next couple of hours; and GFDL and ships both bring it up to strong TS status in the next couple of days...
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 10:33 PM |
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Re: The Weather Channel
|
If a sub-tropical storm developed in January (highly unlikely) it wouldn't be part of any season as the hurricane season runs from June 1st to Nov. 30. NHC would handle it though, and issue adv's.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 10:37 PM |
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Re: Regarding T.D 7.
|
I beg to differ Keith, go look at the vis sat loop, you can plainly see the LLC of TD 7 as it is at 19.4N and 93.5W, and this has nothing to do with outflow cirrcus clouds... which is pretty consistent where the NHC had it located per their last advisory, and this is over water not land... now there maybe another LLC or MLC trying to form off the Yucatan but I can't find it .. yet
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 10:38 PM |
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|
Re: The Weather Channel
|
Quote:
If a sub-tropical storm developed in January (highly unlikely) it wouldn't be part of any season as the hurricane season runs from June 1st to Nov. 30. NHC would handle it though, and issue adv's.
I know we're drifting further and further off topic, but Ana in 2003 formed in April and was considered a part of the 2003 season.
I was just curious if there was a cut off for the season besides the Dec 31/Jan 1 date...
-Mark
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 10:39 PM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
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I cant tell that well where the center of franklin is but i do see the south side of it diging south
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 11:03 PM |
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Re: Regarding T.D 7.
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I see what your saying, my bad. I saw the NHC track and then looked at the floater and saw it in a different area then where I thought. Since it's so disorganized there could be multi LLC that form throughout the night, and there are pockets of warmer water to the north of where the current center is, so maybe they're betting on that some reformation for the center?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 11:04 PM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
why has franklin not been picked up by the trough
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 11:29 PM |
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Interesting note in the discussion...
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THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 060/08. FRANKLIN HAS BEEN MOVING
STEADILY TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS
OR SO AS THE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY. THE NEW 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CREATES
SOMETHING OF A QUANDARY WITH THE TRACK FORECAST. THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY ALONG THE U.S. EAST COAST IS FORECAST BY ALL THE
MODELS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST OF FRANKLIN AND LEAVE AT LEAST
A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION BEHIND BY 36-48 HOURS. AFTER
THAT...THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY AND THEN DRIFT SOUTH OR SOUTHWESTWARD BY 96 HOURS...
WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. IF FRANKLIN
REMAINS INTACT AT 72 HOURS...THEN THE SOUTHWARD MOTION IS QUITE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT ALL THE MODELS INDICATE THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AND THEN NORTHERLY. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
AND A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE GUNS AND GUNA MODELS.
If so, that doesn't bode well now does it for the coast.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 11:29 PM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
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Quote:
why has franklin not been picked up by the trough
I am going to take a guess that it is because Franklin was not well defined enough. It would have been like trying to pick up melted mozzarelli. You can do it but you don't get all of it the first time you try.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 11:34 PM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
What a strange image this is!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT2/VIS/20.jpg
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 11:35 PM |
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Re: The Weather Channel
|
While the official hurricane season lasts from June 1st-November 30th, anything that forms during any given calendar year will be classified with that season's totals. There was a storm 30-40 years ago that formed in January; it was classified with that year's hurricane season. As always, NHC has judiciary over anything in the Atlantic in the rare event we get another such system.
The official spot of TD 7 is along the coast, as previously mentioned, but there are hints that it might try to reform further NE in the midst of the convective flareup now coming off of the Yucutan. This is something only occuring within the past hour, however, and requires more time to see if this is a definitive reformation or just a convective blob coming off of the coast.
As for why Franklin hasn't been picked up by the trough: largely because the trough over the U.S. hasn't been strong enough to slide south and cause the storm to accelerate to the north and east. It has turned Franklin towards the east, but not enough to get it out of our hair. It's a tough storm to call, just like was mentioned in the 5p discussion from the NHC, and isn't likely to go much of anywhere for the next few days.
As for the unregistered user who has tried to wreak havoc here today, just ignore them; it's attention they seek. Storm Cooper and I have tried to take care of as many of the posts as we can -- and thanks to those of you who have alerted us of them via the "Post Notify" feature! -- and hopefully we'll be able to move on from here.
Because, of course, we're in the 2005 Hurricane Season. As LI Phil says, Buckle Up!
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 11:36 PM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
Quote:
melted mozzarelli
giggle!
edited to add
7 pm advisory on TD 7 is out ... looks alot like the 4pm advisory...
Quote:
Repeating the 7 PM CDT position...19.5 N... 93.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained winds...30
mph. Minimum central pressure...1011 mb.
'shana
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 11:46 PM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
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LI Phil or Rollie - I am trying to get either of you!! Check your PM
| Keith234 |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 11:48 PM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
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LI phil is away for the weekend...Rolltide will be back in a few.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 23 2005 11:59 PM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
This may have already been addressed but and I will go back and look for the answer if it has been, but I am looking at the forecast points on this storm and it looks like the forecast has this storm still bursting through a 1016 mb high with a 1001 mb low. Is the forecast old ? This is what I am basing my question on:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir4-loop.html
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 12:01 AM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
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Hey Katie
I think that your issue has been solved . Have a good evening
| KingTex |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 12:32 AM |
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Re: The Weather Channel
|
Quote:Ana in 2003 is the earliest that a storm has been given a name. It was named Tropical Storm Ana on April 21.Quote:
If a sub-tropical storm developed in January (highly unlikely) it wouldn't be part of any season as the hurricane season runs from June 1st to Nov. 30. NHC would handle it though, and issue adv's.
I know we're drifting further and further off topic, but Ana in 2003 formed in April and was considered a part of the 2003 season.
I was just curious if there was a cut off for the season besides the Dec 31/Jan 1 date...
-Mark
There was a subtropical storm that formed in January of 1978 that was not given a name, but is on the list of 1978 storms. So I'd imagine any storms forming after 12/31 go to the following year.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 12:41 AM |
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Re: The Weather Channel
|
866
URNT12 KNHC 240028
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/00:06:10Z
B. 30 deg 04 min N
073 deg 25 min W
C. 850 mb 1455 m
D. 40 kt
E. 243 deg 064 nm
F. 301 deg 040 kt
G. 237 deg 081 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 17 C/ 1529 m
J. 22 C/ 1526 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0506A FRANKLIN OB 05
MAX FL WIND 40 KT SW QUAD 23:39:30 Z
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 12:45 AM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
GuppieGrouper -- no, not necessarily. Remember, that high will move as the storm does; and, strangely enough, a lot of times they don't get those points exactly right. Nevertheless, the storm's path shouldn't bring it in conflict with the high -- it'll move/weaken (or even strengthen if conditions are right) accordingly.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 12:54 AM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
Looking at the WV loop, either the East coast trough is going to miss Franklin or the closed ULL over Florida will open up and become part of the East coast trough and then kick Franklin to the NE or something else could happen. Really tough to call.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 01:07 AM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
Thanks. I knew some but did not the whole story.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 01:36 AM |
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Dvorak Current Intensity Chart
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Some on here have asked about The Dvorak Chart vs. Pressure
Dvorak Current Intensity Chart
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CI MWS MWS MSLP MSLP Saffir-Simpson
Number (Knots) (MPH) (Atlantic) (NW Pacific) Category
1 25 KTS 29 MPH (Approximate)
1.5 25 KTS 29 MPH
2 30 KTS 35 MPH 1009 mb 1000 mb
2.5 35 KTS 40 MPH 1005 mb 997 mb
3 45 KTS 52 MPH 1000 mb 991 mb
3.5 55 KTS 63 MPH 994 mb 984 mb
4 65 KTS 75 MPH 987 mb 976 mb 1 (64-83 KTS)
4.5 77 KTS 89 MPH 979 mb 966 mb 1 (64-83 KTS); 2 (84-96 KTS)
5 90 KTS 104 MPH 970 mb 954 mb 2 (84-96 KTS); 3 (97-113 KTS)
5.5 102 KTS 117 MPH 960 mb 941 mb 3 (97-113 KTS)
6 115 KTS 132 MPH 948 mb 927 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
6.5 127 KTS 146 MPH 935 mb 914 mb 4 (114-135 KTS)
7 140 KTS 161 MPH 921 mb 898 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
7.5 155 KTS 178 MPH 906 mb 879 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
8 170 KTS 196 MPH 890 mb 858 mb 5 (136+ KTS)
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 01:47 AM |
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Re: Dvorak Current Intensity Chart
|
Sometime a year ago I found a site that showed graphics indicating what the various Dvorak levels looked like, but now I have no clue where I saw it. Anyone know of one?
(oh, and I got unlazy and registered)
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 01:55 AM |
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Re: Dvorak Current Intensity Chart
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web page
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 01:55 AM |
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Re: Dvorak Current Intensity Chart
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Thanks for registering!
Here's your prize.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/dvorak.html
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 01:59 AM |
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Re: Dvorak Current Intensity Chart
|
I know about those two. No, I was talking about a graphic that showed what the satellite represetation was supposed to look "appoximately" like for each Dvorak level. Lots of places have the charts you posted links to, but I haven't been able to locate where I found the graphic. I know it wasn't NOAA site.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 02:22 AM |
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|
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
Quote:
Looking at the WV loop, either the East coast trough is going to miss Franklin or the closed ULL over Florida will open up and become part of the East coast trough and then kick Franklin to the NE or something else could happen. Really tough to call.
Looks to me that the trough to the north will pass Frankie by...A high pressure system is anchored off the Georgia coast and the ULL in southwest FL is sliding off to the S-SW...I think this high will expand eastward and block Franklin from moving northeast & actually push the storm to the southeast and then south..It may be starting to happen now...I wouldn't be surprised if it makes a clockwise loop and starts heading southwest in a day or two..however, with the north-northwest flow aloft from the Georgia High...I'm not sure what kinda of system will be left..the storm will be badly sheared
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 02:31 AM |
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Re: Dvorak Current Intensity Chart
|
Yep, I got it Random Chaos, that would be me who posted that link a little while ago, but here it is again
http://www.tropicalupdate.com/atlantic_tropic_watch_guide_to_d.htm
Happy B-day to Rabbit
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 02:33 AM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
Franklin still moving East as of 10:00PM 30deg / 73deg
897
URNT12 KNHC 240213
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/01:51:20Z
B. 30 deg 07 min N
073 deg 08 min W
C. 850 mb 1453 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 087 deg 034 kt
G. 349 deg 013 nm
H. EXTRAP 1003 mb
I. 20 C/ 1527 m
J. 22 C/ 1531 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0506A FRANKLIN OB 10
MAX FL WIND 40 KT SW QUAD 23:39:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 02:38 AM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
Ron, you may be on to something there. RECON just reported that the highest flight level winds were found in the SE quadrant.
| Major7 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 02:50 AM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
Is something developing just below the Florida panhandle in the NE section of the GOM??
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 02:51 AM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
11 PM advisory states max winds at 65 MPH. Not surprising since the max convection is now south of the center as seen on IR sat. The center does appear to be moving nearly due East, though.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 02:59 AM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
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Quote:Just the remains of the day's thunderstorms moving off-shore.
Is something developing just below the Florida panhandle in the NE section of the GOM??
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 03:00 AM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
I was woundering if you guys think there any chance that the storm could split up and reform a new circulation in the south convection of the storm
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 03:05 AM |
|
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
Read the Discussion
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/240255.shtml
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 03:12 AM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
Interesting day on this forum.
Franklin appears to be moving NE away from any land mass.
Hopefully we will have a breather before the next system cranks up.
Here's to clear skys and smooth sailing.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 03:17 AM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
Yeah - looking at Saharan Air Layer graphics it doesn't look like much is likely to form out in the Atlantic for a while.
oops - misread 10 latitude as equator
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 03:18 AM |
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Re: Regarding T.D 7.
|
11pm discussion TD 7 out.
Says the depression has a well-defined circulation with wind gusts of tropical storm strength. Still heading for Mexico - still looking for possible upgrade to TS (Gert) tomorrow.
'shana
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 03:19 AM |
|
New Birth From Africa?
|
Looking at the models, the MM5 SupEnSamb shows a LLC forming in the mid Atlantic. The birth of our new storm to start tracking. Looking at the ir sats, there is a good wave and a hint of rotation in the mid levels. Long ways to go, looks like a fish spinner. What do you think?
Just as a note -- the FSU MM5 and FSU Superensemble are two entirely different things. The Superensemble does not include MM5 data in its forecasts. --Clark
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 03:32 AM |
|
Re: New Birth From Africa?
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The models actually show 2 developing over the next 6 days; one near the Leewards and one halfway between there and Africa. No rest for the weary. And Franklin may be up to something.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 03:38 AM |
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Re: New Birth From Africa?
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I think he may be up to something too!!!!! Looks to me like the convection is all pushing southward and getting squashed from the north. Will he now change direction too? Some models have a wave/disturbance approaching Florida next weekend.
| Girlnascar |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 03:44 AM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
I have been reading this site for over a year. Usually just watch, listen and learn. So take it easy on me!
Has anyone noticed that off the Fl coast near Ft Pierce or so a line of storms off shore that look like line/link or something to Franklin? Whats up with this thing?
http://www.wunderground.com/satellite/vis/1k/US.html
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 03:49 AM |
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Re: New Birth From Africa?
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Quote:
The models actually show 2 developing over the next 6 days; one near the Leewards and one halfway between there and Africa. No rest for the weary. And Franklin may be up to something.
Right right...I was off on my equator position on the Sahara Air Layer map - and thus was reading much more particles at the hurricane development latitudes than there is - oops! (I was thinking 10 was 0...)
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 03:54 AM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
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Quote:
Has anyone noticed that off the Fl coast near Ft Pierce or so a line of storms off shore that look like line/link or something to Franklin? Whats up with this thing?
http://www.wunderground.com/satellite/vis/1k/US.html
Hmm? Are you talking about Franklin itself and not realizing it? I dont see any storms that might link up - nothing else near the storm:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
| Girlnascar |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 03:59 AM |
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|
|
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
Yes, but since Franklin is supposed to have been moving ENE all day wasn't sure what I was looking at. Thanks!
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 04:16 AM |
|
|
Re: Franklin, decoupling?
|
Looking at the latest Satellite pics Franklin does appear to be decoupling as the LLC appears to be heading ENE while the MLC is being left behind or drifting in a more SE or possibly eventually S direction.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 04:16 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
Quote:
Has anyone noticed that off the Fl coast near Ft Pierce or so a line of storms off shore that look like line/link or something to Franklin? Whats up with this thing?
That's a heavy line of thunderstorms. Just east of Ft Pierce.
The line is moving toward the SE.
Affiliated with Franklin? I can't really tell at this point. Seems to be something of an outflow boundary...but from where.
Looking at a IR shortwave loop. The thunderstorm complex apparently developed in an area between Franklin and the mid-upper level Low over S Florida.
Similar to the area in front of a electric hand mixer.
Converging winds mixing/ forcing their properties together.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.kmlb.shtml
| Girlnascar |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 04:44 AM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
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Been trying to figure this one out but not enough experience I guess. Franklin's LLC is heading northeast and MLC is staying behind?
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 05:06 AM |
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
Don't feel left out. RECON is flying circles out there, literally!
Probably have two areas to deal with now...if the two levels split.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 05:45 AM |
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|
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
Love the hand mixer analogy. I've been watching everything getting squeezed through there on the water vapor loop tonight. I was noticing an optical illusion, not sure what you'd call it, that even though Franklin is spinning the same dir as the low, counterclockwise, because the outflow feathers off and you can see the thin wisps of the clouds getting pulled into the rotation of the low, it looks sort of the opposite (clockwise).
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 05:48 AM |
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|
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Re: Franklin, the Little Storm that Could
|
Because after this morning's experience people were throwing some new words at me (derecho, mesocyclone), I did a lot of reading today. I have posted a new thread on the other forums about my experience in 1998 which I now learn was a derecho (apparently a pretty large and infamous one). I had been driving home and was caught out in it.
| Domino |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 05:54 AM |
|
TS Gert is born - earliest ever for the 7th name storm
|
I am surprised nobody has posted this but anyway...
TROPICAL STORM GERT SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT SUN JUL 24 2005
THE PURPOSE OF THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPGRADE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN TO A TROPICAL STORM...AND PROVIDE A COMPLETE
ADVISORY PACKAGE INDICATING SUCH.
DATA FROM THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...SFMR...ON
BOARD A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS
STRENGTHENED AND BECOME TROPICAL STORM GERT. WITHIN THE PAST
HOUR...THE SFMR REPORTED SURFACE WINDS OF 36 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK OR INTENSITY OF GERT. THIS SPECIAL
ADVISORY UPDATES THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND THE 34 KT WIND RADII.
GERT IS THE EARLIEST 7TH NAMED STORM ON RECORD...BREAKING THE OLD
RECORD OF AUGUST 7TH. THE MEAN DATE OF FORMATION BEING SEPTEMBER
23RD.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 05:55 AM |
|
Re: Hello TS Gert...
|
I was wondering if this was why it was takin so long on the advisory...
Quote:
Tropical Storm Gert Special Advisory Number 3
Statement as of 1:00 am CDT on July 24, 2005
...Seventh tropical storm of the season forms in the Bay of
Campeche...
Reports from a NOAA research aircraft indicate that Tropical
Depression Seven has strengthened and become a tropical storm.
I really really need to type faster... or not preview so much... or something
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 05:59 AM |
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|
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Re: TS Gert is born - earliest ever for the 7th name storm
|
From all that I've seen and read, I expected to see it (Gert) in the morning, I figured with the 5am advisory.
Well another record bites the dust. This'll be it for July right? One more week to go.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 06:05 AM |
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Re: TS Gert is born - earliest ever for the 7th name storm
|
Honestly? I don't know. I really thought we were gonna catch a break after Emily. Obviously I was muy confused.
I don't see anything out there, but others do. Guess we'll find out on what... Monday? Tuesday? That would be about right...
'shana
| 00cj |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 06:33 AM |
|
Re: TS Gert is born - earliest ever for the 7th name storm
|
Just wondering...Say franklins LLC headed NE and the MLC stays behind could it reform a new LLC and once again be a tropical storm? Also if that were to happen would it keep the name franklin or get a new name? just curious.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 07:07 AM |
|
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Re: TS Gert is born - earliest ever for the 7th name storm
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hmm.. there's gert. danged thing didn't form like i was guessing, so my prog up to texas will end up being crap. franklin is still undecided as to the future track... northerly shear is really kicking in but the storm is still coupled. since the shortwave is passing perhaps now franklin will stall and then start getting pushed around the upper ridge.. or maybe keep drifting east. i don't see that the next shortwave is all that impressive either, so not certain... still think franklin can turn back at this point.
if the storm decouples and the mlc generates a new surface low... i dunno, they might rename it. probably, after t.d. being considered the same as bonnie after almost vanishing as a wave last year.. and ivan's 'ghost' circling back into the gulf. it's one of those weird cases... nhc would play it however it chose to interpret the situation.
1011mb low nearing 50w is still buried in the subsidence, but i've got a hunch the environment will allow it to organize as it rolls steadily closer to the islands. wave behind it at 30w low amplitude and not all that impressive right now. gert might be it for july... still a week to get through though.
HF 0807z24july
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 07:22 AM |
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Re: TS Gert is born - earliest ever for the 7th name storm
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Thing about that Frank is that the stronger of the ridges will be the 1 I mentioned a few days ago se of bermuda. It will get stared by that moving NE around it and eventually E near 55W. The ridge off the U.S. east coast monday and tuesday will be weak as the main ridge over the plains now will be over the mississipi valley. It will be surpressed down there cause of the next trough moving thru the great lakes and the eastern U.S. by weds.
IF Franklins midlevel low moves south and ssw sunday into sunday night as is still near 72W and south of 28N then it could be stared west into florida as the trough to its n bypasses him taking anything N of 28 and east of 70-75W NE.
I guess we will see during the day today.
| yecatsjg |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 11:08 AM |
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Franklin is weakening
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Quote:
FRANKLIN IS STARTING TO BECOME DISORGANIZED AND WEAKENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 11:35 AM |
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Re: Franklin is weakening
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Franklin never looked like much of a storm to me. I think where it formed in the North Central Bahamas is not that favorable an area anyway.
Looks like there may not be anything to track for a few days. That would be nice.
I'd mention Gert but to me, there's nothing to mention about that weak TS.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 02:23 PM |
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Re: TS Gert is born - earliest ever for the 7th name storm
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Morning - well now I can finally see Franklin's low level circ quite well on this morning's sat loop. Now I can't see Gert's. It just looks like a blob of clouds to me. Sigh. Well I have only been doing this a couple weeks...maybe in a year I'll be able to read the sat images better.
Off to have some fun, see all of you later today!
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun Jul 24 2005 02:26 PM |
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Re: TS Gert is born - earliest ever for the 7th name storm
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