| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 09:53 PM |
Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Tropical Storm Franklin, having survived strong shear over the past few days while it hung out near Bermuda, has begun to reintensify as it accelerates to the north and east, hopefully out to sea. It's got an outside shot at hurricane intensity in the next day or so, but should become extratropical shortly thereafter.
Meanwhile, 92L continues to spawn convection, primarily on its northern periphery. It's likely to head west or west-northwest in the general direction of the Bahamas over the next few days, with some modest development possible. It certainly bears watching, particularly given the improved organization and scheduled recon mission to the disturbance scheduled for tomorrow afternoon. Any potential US impact is a week down the line and it is way too early to say where, if anyone, will be affected by this disturbance.
More as events unfold...
Event Related Links
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar Loop
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Tropical Storm Franklin
Floater Vis/IR Loop of Franklin with Storm Path Overlay
Animated Model Plot of Franklin
Model Plot of Franklin (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Franklin Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Franklin
Wave in East Atlantic (Aka 92L)
Animated Model Plot of Wave in Central Atlantic (92L)
Model Plot of Wave in Central Atlantic (92L) (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
San Juan, PR Radar Loop
Wave in Even Further East Atlantic (Aka 93L)
Animated Model Plot of Wave in East Atlantic (93L)
Model Plot of Wave in East Atlantic (93L) (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 09:57 PM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
there seems to be something that several models are picking up on and developing into a strong storm or hurricane at 96 hrs, as well as something dropping into the Gulf in 72hrs and forming a tropical system
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 10:10 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Here in S Fl. some of the local mets keep saying we will get some effects this weekend from 92L. It's broad 1014mb low is centered around 16n 56w. Now I'm about at 26n 80w. How in the heck is 92L no matter what form(Harvey) becomes, is going to effect S. Fl by this weekend. I'd say tuesday at best.If it doesn't slow down. Don't they use a calculator at the NWS??
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 10:20 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Clark, depending on the ridging, do you think there's a chance this storm could follow a similar path to the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 10:39 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Big Red Machine -- no idea. It could pull a Georges and hit every island, it could recurve harmless out to sea, or it could affect anywhere in between. It's too early to tell. Models suggest a more westward motion, but any impact to the US is over 5 days away.
LONNY -- yeah, they do, but speeds change with the evolution of the system and the midlatitude regime. Tropical systems moving fast trend faster than the guidance; those moving slow tend slower than the guidance...however, there is no hard & set guideline to that effect, as each storm is different.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 10:57 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Part of the AFD from Tally....
.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...
THE 06 UTC GFS AND 00 UTC ECMWF ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
TAKING THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER OUR AREA
NORTHWARD AND WEAKENING IT, AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS OVER OUR
AREA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN POPS RETURNING TO CLIMATOLOGY (WHICH IS
ABOUT 40 PERCENT FROM 12 TO 24 UTC THIS TIME OF YEAR), AND NEAR-
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY 550 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL
INTENSIFY AND HAVE SOME IMPACT ON OUR AREA LATE NEXT WEEK, BUT IT IS
TOO EARLY TO TELL SINCE IT COULD TURN NORTHWARD EAST OF FLORIDA IF
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE DOES NOT BUILD AS STRONGLY AS SUGGESTED BY
THE GFS.
Interesting...
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 10:58 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
I am a critter watcher and I can tell you that I wonder if the report of the 13 yr old girl being bitten by a shark at Daytona while she was wading this week, could be pointing to general location of next Us landfalling system. I noticed that hurricanes have effected areas already this year where shark bites were encountered. Now the general area I am thinking of would be between Vero Beach and Jacksonville. Just as Dennis effected the area between Penasacola and Fort Walton Beach shortly after some one was attacked by a shark in the general area. My theory holds that sharks are instinctively looking for calmer water to feed and that this chases the sharks closer to the shoreline where small feeder fish are. The thing that drives the fish to feed is the same thing that causes fish to bite in fresh water, the change of barametric pressures. When a preliminary low begins to form, the pressures interact significantly with surrounding pressures. I think critters in general sense this long before humans and computers.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 11:00 PM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
http://www.keyshistory.org/hurr35chart.jpg
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 11:04 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Lets not do that one again, OK? That would really be a lot of money to try to put back together today.
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 11:08 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Im sorry i dont quite understand? alot of money to put what back together? do you mean a major keys hit? I just thought the old map path was cool.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 11:14 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
I guess I have a problem in, at least in the short term, with 92L getting its act together. There is an ULL moving southward that appears on a train wreck course with our 92L. Maybe this is why many models aren't going for much development. It (the ULL) would have to continue to move SSW or just fill in order to give 92L a chance to develop before it gets near Florida's latitude. Does anyone else see this as a big speed bump for our invest?
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jul 28 2005 11:35 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
I was really saying that I hope that history does not repeat itself as that 1935 tack would cause much more expensive damage today than it did in 1935.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 12:11 AM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Yikes. My whole house just shook as a booming (2 second delay) clap of thunder just set off some alarms in the neighborhood. That sucka was loud. This is part of the energy that today's 00z models progged to develop over the MS/LA coast in 48-72ish hours. Still can't tell whether the inverted trof ends up as a closed ULL, something at the mid-levels or at the surface, but different models are handling it differently - from taking a closed low toward the Upper Texas Coast to sending a near-hurricane into E AL/NW FL. We'll have to wait and see whether there is any homebrew this weekend.
Steve
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 12:18 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Steve H1 -- it's certainly something that could complicate things. The models differ on how fast they move the feature out to the NW (and then weakening it and shuttling the remainder of the energy associated with the feature out in the midlatitudes), with the GFS doing so rather rapidly and the NOGAPS doing so much more slowly. It is far enough away right now to potentially be enhancing the convection on the north side of the feature (via diffluent flow at upper levels), but not so far away (or moving such) to keep form playing a role. How it evolves may determine how rapidly, if at all, 92L gets going.
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 12:29 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Guppie:
Re: the shark theory: A large percentage of every year's worldwide shark bites (msome years I believe it's more than, or close to, 50% of the worldwide total) occur in the summer in Volusia County, Florida, in and around Daytona Beach. A lot of factors contribute to this (the number of people in the water, the temperature, the rough surf, the proximity of the gulf stream, the presence of bait fish, etc.), but if your theory were correct, then many hurricanes every year would go towards Volusia County. Perhaps unfortunately, every few years the press highlights stories of these bites (most are treatable at shore or with a few stitches - accidental bites by sharks, often baby nurse sharks, looking for food, not humans, and mistakenly biting people who happen to be in the vicinity of their food) and many people interpret it to mean there has been an extraordinary number of bites in general, and an even more extraordinary number in that area. But also unfortunately, having a lot of shark bites in Volusia County in the summer is basically normal.
Interesting theory, and I'm not one to judge if it has merit generally, but I don't think the Daytona bites can be viewed as an abnormality.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 12:29 AM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
92L is now a special feature in the latest Trop Wx Discussion from NHC. Also, GOES Storm Floater 1 is now focusing on it.
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 12:45 AM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Quote:
Yikes. My whole house just shook as a booming (2 second delay) clap of thunder just set off some alarms in the neighborhood. That sucka was loud. This is part of the energy that today's 00z models progged to develop over the MS/LA coast in 48-72ish hours. Still can't tell whether the inverted trof ends up as a closed ULL, something at the mid-levels or at the surface, but different models are handling it differently - from taking a closed low toward the Upper Texas Coast to sending a near-hurricane into E AL/NW FL. We'll have to wait and see whether there is any homebrew this weekend.
Steve
That's ok Steve its booming and lightning pretty hard ova here in Bama too.And I want to see what all the fuss is all about in the GOM within the next few days.
| Hootowl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 01:01 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
I hope history doesn't repeat itself either. Can you imagine the damage going up the west coast of Florida? As built up as Tampa and St. Pete is? Holy Cow!!!!
Your shark theory is very interesting. I have another critter story that might (or not) be relevant to the weather. We noticed last year the squirrels started "burying their treasure" in August. Now - I've been known to watch critters and birds all my life and I never saw a squirrel start burying stuff that early ever before. (normally in the autumn) Then we noticed they were knocking the pine cones out of the trees and stuffing themselves. The burying was before any storm was knocking on our door (by at least 2 weeks) but the pine cone thing was just right before we started to get bands from Francis. Who knows. I do know that yesterday they started knocking the pine cones down and last week I noticed they were burying stuff in the flower beds??? Maybe a connection - maybe not.
Stay safe, Hoot
| Heather |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 01:07 AM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Hmmm...another critter story. My parents have baby birds in their chimney every year. In the spring and they usually leave early summer. Last season they stayed til well into the fall. This year the birds are still there. Only twice has this happened in 12 years.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 01:07 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
The seeds in the pine cones could be just right for eating now. The squirrels around here are always burying and excavating their treasures.
| Hootowl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 01:14 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Heather & MichaelA,
Interesting Heather. Critters do know stuff (or feel) that I'm sure humans don't understand. Just making sure of the survival of their species I guess.
Michael, The cones are green, green, green. Don't know. Unfortunately I didn't pay much attention to the color of the cones when they liked them the most.
This is the point forecast for my area - long term.......
.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT - THU)...SUBTLE DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST IN THE
MODELS SO WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLEND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM REMNANT TUTT CELL MOVING WEST NORTHWEST
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF GETS ABSORBED INTO THE SERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE ATLANTIC UPPER/SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY
BUILDS WEST NORTHWEST. DURING MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THE SERN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH RETROGRADES WEST-SOUTHWEST AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILD
TOWARDS THE CAROLINA'S WITH ATTENDANT SFC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEVELOPING MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE WILL FAVOR HIGHEST CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SETTING
UP OVER WESTERN MOST SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
IN ADDITION MODELS SHOW A FAIRLY STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE
BAHAMAS ON TUESDAY...THEN MOVING WEST INTO THE ADJACENT GULF DURING
LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
Guess they are thinking it will go in the gulf.
Time for bed - up at 4 in the am.
Night all, Hoot
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 02:14 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
I happen to have 2 parakeets and 2 cockateils and a pet squirrel. I know that when Franklin made his closest approach, they yapped and squealed non stop day and night until Franklin was not considered a threat to the US at all. They have calmed down and seem to be following the sun now up when the sun comes up and quiet when the sun goes down. We will see if this changes by the end of this weekend.My usual hints are slugs on the patio window and rain frogs trying to get into the house. I did see a waterfowl rob a local gold fish pond the other day. Another clue we get is that the beach combers start moving in to the city limits from Tampa Bay area when there is a storm in the Gulf, I havent seen any of those lately(beach combers=birds generally seen at the beach)
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 02:22 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
We had sharks showing up at Sea Rim State Park. Then there was a shark attack in Galveston. This is very unusual for this area. This happened before Dennis made landfall in Mexico. Thought it was kind of interesting also.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 02:23 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
We are having lots of stormy weather here at the moment.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 02:25 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
I think then it must have been the Cindy storm I was talking about in the Pensacola ARea. Duh. in terms of the shark attack on the Northern Gulf coast. Too many storms to remember already!
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 02:28 AM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
While we're on the subject of critters - last summer a day or two before Frances, I saw no less than thirteen manatees, all in a group, booking it south (the storm of course passed north of us in Palm Beach). In addition I probably saw five or six more head south throughout the day, in a place where you're lucky to see one lone manatee every few weeks.
ON-TOPIC CONTENT: it's getting really hard to identify a closed curculation on 92L, could it be the trailing edge of the Saharan dust event having negative effects?
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 02:34 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
I did not know there was a closed circulation already. I did not think they would declare it anything but an invest until the Recon gets out to measure and check the center or lack thereof but maybe I am wrong. ITs late.
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 02:40 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Oh, I don't think one was ever officially claimed, but it sure looked like it had more of a twist to it earlier this afternoon.
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 02:50 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
On the topic of critters and people using slugs in their windowsills or squirrels in their chimneys as meteorlogical predictors, I can tell you that last summer there were actual dogs being taken for walks by their owners and we got four hurricanes. Also, I saw a puddy cat at somebody's house. Plus, on an Animal Planet show, they were showing monkeys. What does it mean? I don't know.
Also, this one time, at band camp ...
Alright everyone...whether or not you agree with animals being able to foretell the weather, let's respect everyone's opinions here and not lash out at others? I'm not using the above post as an example, but am using it to take care of the others below.
We are pretty lienient with what we allow here, but we don't allow attacks on other posters. As LI Phil says, no cussin' & no fightin' allowed! Thanks! --Clark
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 03:05 AM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
The waves behind 92L look really bad anymore after they look so promising anyone now what happened?
| La Nimo |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 03:12 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching *DELETED*
|
Post deleted by Clark
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 03:15 AM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm_image/92L/92L.html
look at 92L, more and more of the models are showing a northward turn..what do people think about this
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 03:24 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching *DELETED*
|
Post deleted by Clark
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 03:27 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching *DELETED*
|
Post deleted by Clark
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 03:37 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
OK. I was just commenting, in my own inartful way, that correlation does not equal causation. Not even sure there is a correlation with some of the critter stories on here. But even if there was, my point was one cannot assume (nor in most cases credibly argue) an actual relationship between events. In the scheme of things, the number of storms is too low to reach out for some of the things people notice and then wonder about.
Not to mention the fact that I see all sorts of bizarre behavior in both animals and in people ... and then there is no hurricane.
My argument was something along the lines of the science of the knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail. If she weighs the same as a duck, and ducks float just like wood, that would make her made of wood and, as wood burns just like witches, the conclusion is that if she weighs the same as a duck she is a witch.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 03:38 AM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Quote:
http://www.ourgallagherfamily.com/storm_image/92L/92L.html
look at 92L, more and more of the models are showing a northward turn..what do people think about this
Not sure what to think about this. To be honest, I haven't heard of some of those models. I know about the A90's and the CLIPPER. Those two models are quite old however, and I wouldn't put too much stock into them. The BAM models and the LBAR are *probably* the best performers out of all of the models on that map.
As 92L gets further north, farther away from the deep tropics, the global models will likely be the better choice for tracking this system. They have been known to handle mid-latitude features better than the statistical models.
| oil trader |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 03:39 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Hi everyone, I have got started tracking storms and following this forum just for more pecuniary interests; last year Ivan, remember (oil trader). However I did learn to enjoy this topic by itself. Now, hurricanes for me are business and hobby at the same time.
If both cook enough and looking at Animated Storm Model Plots, we will have 92L heading to SE coast and 93L surely landing into the GOM. Is it that right?
I am also a little confused about the possibilities of both to become a real threat.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 03:40 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
kevin-would you happen to know a link for the global models?
thanks, Ryan
| Juanky |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 03:41 AM |
|
Re:
|
Looking at the latest sat. run, seems like it is slowing down and trying to spin around itself and tighten up, then again my eyes are untrained.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 03:42 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Quote:
Hi everyone, I have got started tracking storms and following this forum just for more pecuniary interests; last year Ivan, remember (oil trader). However I did learn to enjoy this topic by itself. Now, hurricanes for me are business and hobby at the same time.
If both cook enough and looking at Animated Storm Model Plots, we will have 92L heading to SE coast and 93L surely landing into the GOM. Is it that right?
I am also a little confused about the possibilities of both to become a real threat.
i'd say thats a safe bet for 92L but saying 93L is surely heading into the GOM is a little far fetched, just my opinion
EDIT: to answer your last question, i think that 92L is a threat to the Bahamas and 93L is or will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles...just give em some time
.Ryan
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 03:45 AM |
|
|
|
Re:
|
Quote:
Looking at the latest sat. run, seems like it is slowing down and trying to spin around itself and tighten up, then again my eyes are untrained.
I"ve noticed that as well, seems like 92 is trying to "trim some fat". Could also be that we're in the nighttime hours, and this wave has shown a history of decreasing convection past sunset.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 03:48 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Quote:
kevin-would you happen to know a link for the global models?
thanks, Ryan
Yes, however, I can't currently get the link to work. It comes off of FSU's website. When the link is working again, I'll pass it on to you.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 03:55 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Quote:
kevin-would you happen to know a link for the global models?
thanks, Ryan
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 03:56 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Quote:Quote:
kevin-would you happen to know a link for the global models?
thanks, Ryan
Yes, however, I can't currently get the link to work. It comes off of FSU's website. When the link is working again, I'll pass it on to you.
It's working for me.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs
| 52255225 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 04:02 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
yeah im not so sure about the animal thing. seems theres shark attacks every year. im not sure about the frog and squirrel thing either. I live in a very secluded area not in a neighborhood basically in the woods and ive got tons of squirrels green tree frogs and mostly the dreaded cuban tree frog and they dont seem to have a clue when the weather gets weird. the snails only come out after a really heavy rain they probably sense that they might drown otherwise.
| orlandocanewatcher |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 04:08 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Hi all...just reading all the comments. Am very new to this art of hurricane predictions, but after last year..... hope not to repeat all of that this year.
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 04:08 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| orlandocanewatcher |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 04:18 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
did everyone go to bed????
| oil trader |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 04:21 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Quote:
i'd say thats a safe bet for 92L but saying 93L is surely heading into the GOM is a little far fetched, just my opinion
EDIT: to answer your last question, i think that 92L is a threat to the Bahamas and 93L is or will be a threat to the Lesser Antilles...just give em some time
.Ryan
I’ve said that in a tentative approach since the low latitude of the wave and the latest track pointing even more to the south.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 04:23 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
old traider--"I’ve said that in a tentative approach since the low latitude of the wave and the latest track pointing even more to the south. "
you mean 92L or 93L is aiming more southerly
EDIT:im gonna head off to bed i ahve to work tomorrow night
| oil trader |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 04:28 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Quote:
old traider--"I’ve said that in a tentative approach since the low latitude of the wave and the latest track pointing even more to the south. "
you mean 92L or 93L is aiming more southerly
EDIT:im gonna head off to bed i ahve to work tomorrow night
93L as you can see in the last images from "Flhurricane Animated Storm Model Plots for (2005)"
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 04:30 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
To answer a few questions...
* Waves behind 92L: the SSTs out there are just marginal, while shear has picked up a little. There is some hint of a little dry air in the region; add all three minor factors together and you get a suppression of the activity...for now. They'll pick up much like 92L did once they get to about 50W, assuming they hold together until then.
* Future paths of 92L and 93L: 92L looks to be one to moreso potentially affect the SE US coast, yes, while 93L looks like it'd head on a more southerly course through the Caribbean. We don't know if either will actually impact land, however. But yes, the threat may be there in a few days down the line.
* 92L organization: it's trying, but the surface reflection and the convection don't quite match up yet. Probably a day or two away from developing...we'll see if the recon flight gets canceled or not. My guess is they'll use the QuikSCAT data from the morning overpass to make that determination (along with satellite imagery, of course).
* FSU model plots are working once again, for those interested or having troubles earlier. A backup of some of the model output can be found at http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/, in case the FSU site is ever down.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 04:39 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Correct me if I'm wrong, but it appears that 00z GFS build the ridge back fairly strongly. Does this suggest that if 92L develops it would head into SE FL or even perhaps, the gulf?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/fp1_168.shtml
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 04:43 AM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
by whom??? and for what reason???
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 04:57 AM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
My guess would be for inflamatory or off-topic posts.
This year there seems to be a lot more negativity than I recall seeing for Frances and Jeanne. The tolerance level has gone down, and if/when things pick up, expect even more moderation goodness to occur.
Address the poster? Bad form. Address the content? Usually okay, so long as it's on-topic.
You've been here a while, I thought you'd know this
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 05:14 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Quote:
This year there seems to be a lot more negativity than I recall seeing for Frances and Jeanne. The tolerance level has gone down, and if/when things pick up, expect even more moderation goodness to occur.
Weather forums all over the net have been more tense than usual for oh... almost a week now. Maybe because we're heading into the most productive part of the season? Maybe, but I think it's everyone waiting for the other shoe to drop re 92L and 93L. I know *I'm* more than ready for them to get on with what ever is gonna happen - the suspense is higher than it ought to be. And Franklin is out there ... and may live till Christmas, but we've talked him to death
So... the "cold" front that came through... has anybody figured out if it's really going to contribute to a homegrown GOM storm? And how long before we know it won't?
'shana
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 05:44 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Its very hard to pinpoint the exact center of circulation due to the high clouds but there are t-storms near the center now (although weak). My guess its near 17N and 61W near the furthest west blowup of convection and on the south side. It maybe also near 59W...hard to tell. Anyway if the center is there, I would expect the plane to find this a TD by later tomorrow afternoon( Friday) near 64W just east of Puerto Rico, infact many might see the circulation on radar by noon. Of course that is saying its fully closed. Not sure if there is any sw winds yet.....there is S, Se, ENE but Sw we need recon or ship report or island report from down there.
Models Ukmet and Nogaps have to correct run on the OZ but still not sure how strong the ridge builds over the Se US by Sunday into Tuesday.
Correction ,,,center or vortex found near 16N and 59.5W as of 0600z. Its weak and shallow but there. Currently windshear is preventing this from becoming better organized but its doing it slowly.
| Juanky |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 06:57 AM |
re:
|
On the sat. image, it looks like this thing has been torn apart a bit.
Not to mention looks rather stuck in the mud.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 07:03 AM |
|
|
92L coming up
|
sfc obs out of guadeloupe show weak sw winds... suggests there is a poorly defined closed low pushing into the leeward islands right now. there is more convection near the western, active part of this system now that the large flareup northeast of the actual center has waned some. scott has the state of this thing pretty much on the mark. should continue to take shear, but some ridging is trying to build in near the system... modeling suggests that shear conditions should abate over the weekend. next question is.. does this thing start running over the larger islands or pass north of them. my guess would be north... most models show that.. but the initializations are questionable. do think this will make depression status friday if the convection becomes more concentrated near the center.
other features:
franklin heading out, not showing much inclination to deepen. franklin was only pesky, affecting the bahamas.
93L is still on a low trajectory. a trade wind surge and coincident saharan layer air is digging into this thing from behind.. not conducive for development. should keep it on a low glide towards the caribbean... development chances increase as it gets closer... if this low-amplitude feature can maintain its identity.
wave behind 93L is slightly lower in latitude and roughly in the same state. not going to develop soon.
complex deep layer system in the northeast atlantic is digging in. not much at the surface right now except for troughiness, but globals still showing nontropical low pressure out there. activity here is unlikely.
close-in development chances near the bahamas and gulf still yet to take any shape. the weak trough passing through the bahamas is getting close to the upper weakness forecast to propagate nw and n towards the carolinas/mid atlantic. almost no convection in the area but some may spring up shortly. most globals still indicating a low developing near the carolinas... looking somewhat baroclinic, but still noteworthy since it may have a tropical character.
late weekend/next week a variety of models are showing weak low pressure in near the louisiana coast as the dying front offshore and mid level weakness begin to tail away to the west. like the feature near the bahamas.. not showing anything yet.
looks like a new system will take franklin's place. as noted by several, the feature near the islands may present a threat to the southeast mid-late next week.
HF 0802z29july
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 07:14 AM |
|
Re: 92L coming up
|
good job Hank...always good to read your good obs.... whatcha doing up soo late?
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 09:22 AM |
|
|
5 AM EDT update
|
NRL is giving 3 area of concern.
1-06LFRANKLIN.50kts-997mb-396N-647W (at 0815Z-4:15 AM EDT)
2-92LINVEST.25kts-1011mb-175N-608W (at 0815Z-4:15 AM EDT)
3-93LINVEST.20kts-1012mb-107N-409W (at 0830Z-4:30 AM EDT)
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
FRANKLIN STILL HAS ABOUT 6-12 HR IN WHICH TO
STRENGTHEN BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES NORTH OF THE GULF STREAM AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. AFTER THAT...THE STORM SHOULD WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
FRANKLIN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 24-36 HR...THEN BE ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM IS 48-60 HR.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM 23N56W TO 8N60W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TOP OF IT.
AN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N38W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N62W TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N77W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/290627.shtml?
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 11:11 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 5 AM EDT update
|
Wow!! Is no one up yet 92L is getting better organize if the dry air get out we could see even more devlopment. The waves behind it look rather week anymore but they could and probley will devlop at some point looks like a lot of dry air again. Also I think some windshear.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 11:21 AM |
|
Re: 5 AM EDT update
|
Currently no real model support for development of 92L even though we see it happening to some degree. GFS shows mostly an open wave getting lifted NW , then north after approaching the Bahamas, as it shows little ridging there. CMC shows about the same solution. NOGAPS and UKMET close off a low near the east coast of Florida by 144. Still have yesterdays FSUMM5 from 12Z. So the race will be on to see if 92L pulls north under the influence of the evacuating trough or, as per the Melbourne disco this am, it stays a little south and slower, and moves underneath the building it will have an improving environment and push WNW. Since the globals had this system sstalling near the Bahamas a few days ago, I'm inclined to go with the latter solution. Still, the GFS and Canadien are not too impressed by anything out there in the coming week. They should come around I believe, given the improved structure of 92L and its continued organization. Cheers!!
| Hootowl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 11:36 AM |
|
Re: 5 AM EDT update
|
Just out.......
AXNT20 KNHC 291101
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN CENTER NEAR 40.3N 63.8W...OR ABOUT
295 MILES/480 KM SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA AND ABOUT
695 MILES/1115 KM...SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND...
AT 29/0900 UTC MOVING NORTHEAST 19 KT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. SEE THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE LATEST
NHC PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 40N TO 41N BETWEEN 62W AND 64W.
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG A LINE FROM 23N56W TO A 1012 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 17N60W TO 10N61W NEAR NORTHEASTERN
VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY ARE REACHING SECTIONS OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM GUADELOUPE NEAR 16N TO 20N BETWEEN
58W AND 63W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS COVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM 16N TO 22N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THIS WAVE...FROM 17N59W
TO 25N46W. AN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE
LINE FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 33N38W TO A
SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N62W TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER
NEAR 26N77W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE WAVE IS MISSING A LOT OF THE SHEARING
WINDS WHICH IT MAY BE ENCOUNTERING IF IT WERE CLOSER TO THIS
TROUGH. AN INVERTED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
...TROPICAL WAVES...
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 32W/33W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 35W AND 37W.
CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 43W/44W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST ABOUT 20 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N TO 15N
BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. SOME OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURE 23N56W 10N61W TROPICAL WAVE
JUST EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS IS FLOWING OVER THE TOP
OF THIS WAVE.
TROPICAL WAVE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM HONDURAS SOUTHWARD ALONG
88W/89W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST ABOUT 15 KT. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS MOVING.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN EAST CENTRAL
COASTAL NICARAGUA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COASTAL HONDURAS SOUTH OF 17N WEST OF
86W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.
...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ 13N16W 11N24W 11N31W...11N33W 11N42W...10N45W 10N50W 12N55W
12N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 12N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ISOLATED CLUSTERS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN AFRICA
AND 14W...AND FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 22W AND 40W.
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 22N92W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SECTION OF THE AREA. AN INVERTED TROUGH HAD
BEEN IN THIS AREA 24 HOURS AGO. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR
COVERS THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF 26N. A TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS RUNS
FROM A NORTHERN BAHAMAS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 26N77W
TO THIS GULF CYCLONIC CENTER. A SURFACE 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER IS NEAR 25N93W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA TO SOUTHEAST TEXAS
INTO MEXICO WEST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTH OF THE TEXAS
BIG BEND. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS
FRONT ARE MOST NOTABLE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS.
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 26N70W
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 18N74W NEAR
SOUTHWESTERN HAITI. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY ARE REACHING SECTIONS OF THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS FROM GUADELOUPE NEAR 16N TO 20N
BETWEEN 58W AND 63W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE
86W/87W TROPICAL WAVE. A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG A LINE
FROM 23N56W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 17N60W
TO 10N61W.
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE RUNS FROM 23N56W TO 10N61W WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ON TOP OF IT. AN ATLANTIC MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER NEAR 33N38W TO A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N62W
TO A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER NEAR 26N77W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 30W AND 46W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FOUND FROM 24N TO 26N
BETWEEN 62W AND 66W WITH THE 26N62W CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN
76W AND 80W WITH THE 26N77W CYCLONIC CENTER.
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 11:49 AM |
|
Re: 5 AM EDT update
|
I don't think the models can be counted until a depression has formed. The low is to broad and most of the convection is coming from the ULL. If this develops at all then maybe we could consider the models.
| amonty |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 12:09 PM |
|
|
Re: 5 AM EDT update
|
good point the NHC says there's 3 points of convection. I agree they'll definiltey split.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 01:09 PM |
|
|
Just A Quick Note About Moderation
|
Quote:
My guess would be for inflamatory or off-topic posts.
This year there seems to be a lot more negativity than I recall seeing for Frances and Jeanne. The tolerance level has gone down, and if/when things pick up, expect even more moderation goodness to occur.
Address the poster? Bad form. Address the content? Usually okay, so long as it's on-topic.
You've been here a while, I thought you'd know this
Excellent observation. While the intent of this site has always been and continues to be to provide a forum for serious tropical discussion, a spot where newbies are free to ask questions and mets and other experienced weather folks provide insight and information, there have recently been some complaints/questions etc. brought to my attention. There are TWO had and fast rules: ONE: NO CUSSIN'. Everyone is abiding by this, so no problem there; TWO: No attackin'. We've had some minor as well as major activity in this area; the major ones have been sent to the graveyard...you know who you are and you should have probably surmised WHY your post has been deleted.
There are also a couple of "unwritten" rules the newer members may not be aware of, and perhaps need to be reiterated now. It might behoove some of the newer members to "go back" and read some of the discussion threads from 2004, particularly at the height of the "big four". We do NOT want to discourage anyone from posting, and everyone is certainly entitled to his/her opinion, it is STRONGLY recommended that long-timers and newbies alike to not "speculate" or "wishcast" about strength and landfall of future hurricanes, especially those that are not within 120 hours of any landfall. Such posts are irresponsible at best and could be dangerous at worst. If you feel you MUST predict 92L's landfall and intensity, for example, at the very least be prepared to back up your prediction with some kind of science; if someone questions this, it had better not be in the form of a direct attack on the poster.
Another unwritten rule is the posting of TWOs TWDs and Special Statements in their entirety on the main board. Not only is this unnecessary and wastes space, these are all available on the front page of every thread on the main board. Feel free to include a link or take select pieces of the TWO/TWD/STS to reinforce a point or ask a question. In the future, any full posting of these will result in their deletion.
Finally, try to keep the "off-topic" posts to a minimum. Often a post which begins "on topic" can quickly get off topic; discussions of animal behavior and their predictive abilities (on topic) can quickly lead to responses which get further and further off topic; they can also lead to direct attacks.
I realize that after 2004 (TSFH) and the extremely active 2005, people are justifiably on-edge. Lets all work together to keep CFHC the best and most informative hurricane site on the net.
Thanks and Cheers,
LI Phil
EDIT: I'm including a link to Site Usage Tips which should make your experience on CFHC even better. Please take time time to read through this as it explains the site's mission and some guidelines!
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 01:25 PM |
|
|
Split wave?
|
Some have the wave splitting in two, but this doesn't even occur for many days down the road while probably in the Bahamas. No wonder the models don't know which way to take it, east of Florida or through the straits.
GFSLR SLOWS DOWN AND APPEARS TO SPLIT THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND LENGTHY...TROPICAL WAVE INTO TWO VORTICITY AREAS. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE WAVE SEEMS TO LIFT NORTHWARD FEELING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHILE THE SOUTHERN PORTION MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 01:26 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
According to the navy website 92L has dorpped a pressure from 1012 to 1010 it getting stronger
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 01:37 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
How would the cold front contribute to a GOM storm if that were to happen?
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 01:48 PM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Quote:
How would the cold front contribute to a GOM storm if that were to happen?
I believe it's because the front has become sort of "hung up" and stalled over NC. In doing so, areas of low pressure move along the front, and one of those could dip down into the GOM and spawn a "homegrown" system.
Regarding the shark bites vs. tropical activity. The summer of '01 was dubbed the "Summer of the Shark" in Volusia County. There was a record number of shark bites recorded. However, only one tropical system impacted the central east Florida coast. It was Hurricane Gabrielle, and it actually formed in the GOM and came across the peninsula.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 01:50 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Will someone please look at the area of convection that flared up in the Carib? Is that anything to worry about? All of a sudden it just appeared. Too close to Florida for me. Thank you,
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 01:53 PM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
That appears to be an ULL that will provide rainfall for Florida this weekend.
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 01:55 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Could be wrong, but I think that is convection associated with a non-tropical ULL that is forecast to move into FL this weekend.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 01:58 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Thanks to both of you!!!
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 02:02 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
that flare up by the bahamas is starting to look more impresive may be we could get something like this
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 02:03 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Thanks for the explanation.
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 02:11 PM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Ah, man, no Jensen Beach for me this weekend. Especially if it is going to be raining. shucks.
I liked hearing everyone stories on the critters. Their actions just amaze me.
You know, I have so many questions but I feel like such a complete idiot, I am afraid to ask. Is there a thread anywhere on here for asking (my stupid) questions? Trying to learn as I go and ... apparently, I am not paying enough attention to details.
| Pamie |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 02:12 PM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
One of our Local TV stations here in West Palm Beach said the Low near Florida is going to just cause rain this weekend.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 02:22 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Quote:
You know, I have so many questions but I feel like such a complete idiot, I am afraid to ask. Is there a thread anywhere on here for asking (my stupid) questions? Trying to learn as I go and ... apparently, I am not paying enough attention to details.
Yes, katiebug, just go to Weather Q & A and post your questions...they might not get answered immediately, but the plethora of mets/weather pros/watchers etc. will usually be able to give you an answer within hours or less
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 02:25 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Great! Thank you.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 02:43 PM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
On 92L, I don't see any immediate organization. The north half of the wave is getting badly sheared, the system is moving fast (20 mph), and a large ULL is positioned N-NW of the system. Not to mention, part of the wave will be traveling over Hispanola. I don't think the environmental conditions will be favorable until it reaches the eastern Bahamas, probably in another 48 hours. I doubt the RECON flight will go today unless something rapidly develops.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 02:43 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
so are we still expecting a Florida landfall on 92L?.and if so, what do people predict on the strenght?
Ryan, please see post 45952 on page 3 of this thread...
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 02:56 PM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Was noticing a little something in the FSU MM5 7/28 12Z run that reminded me of JB's comment of a home grown storm developing in the NE Gulf this weekend. That run quickly develops a little system and sends it in around, of course, Mobile/Pensacola area early next week. I think my short term attention might be on the NE Gulf.
EDIT: Corrected my lack of directional sense. East, West, whats the difference?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 03:20 PM |
|
|
|
mixed signals
|
everything secondary to 92L and the close-in stuff this post.
92L still appears to have a weak sfc low attached to a trough, with the convection strung out sw/ne along it. it's moving into the virgin islands... if there's something classifiable this afternoon we'll know as recon and san juan radar will be on it. track wnw towards the bahamas looks good with this feature. ridging is trying to build near/south of it presently.
three areas near the u.s. that will need to be watched.. how they play off of the pattern or each other varies from model to model.
that feature that was supposed to appear near the bahamas magically did early this morning.. wouldn't be surprised if they divert recon to make a pass through it this afternoon. some deep convection is firing along it, and the curvature from the surface trough is still apparent. anticyclonic ridging behind the weak upper low near the florida straits has this thing looking like a late-blooming troublemaker this morning. since it's acquiring definition early and the mid-layer ridge appears to be partially intact.. it may move nw/wnw towards florida. whether it moves n near the east coast or over the state is iffy... but if this thing starts developing watch things get hectic in fl this weekend.
the cousin of this thing is up over nc... the disturbance that was supposed to be there doesn't seem associated with the bahamas feature at all as i was earlier reckoning... it's a wave on the dying front. already some deep convection around hatteras, with the circulation over eastern n.c.... what appears to be an open frontal wave. it's getting a little sw shear, which should lull ahead of the next shortwave. this may be a hybrid/conversion system off the virginia capes this weekend.
still a mix on what models want to do in the gulf. the feature that has been appearing near the la coast may in fact be related to the bahamas wave.. or a propagation of it. could also just be a function of convergence with the 500mb weakness which is going to start backing towards texas. nothing there yet, and for something to be there it would have to collect at least some distance offshore.
the other features out there don't look to be in play. 93L has lost a lot of its definition, the wave behind it is low-amplitude, low-latitude. bastardi mentions mjo activating the westpac.. with soi negative there should be some backing in the deep tropics, but generally when the westpac is active the north atlantic slows down. early august will probably be slower than july, unless the normal relationships don't hold up. when that mjo pulse gets into our part of the globe mid-late month all hell may break loose again. it isn't a strong mjo wave regardless, but even a little mjo activity should work to cluster activity... create flurries and pauses.
should be a very interesting weekend.
HF 1620z29july
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 03:28 PM |
|
Re: mixed signals
|
Thanks for the update Hank. I always appreciate hearing your views on the tropics. The feature in the Bahamas caught me off guard this morning.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 04:19 PM |
|
Re: mixed signals
|
Yeah, the TWO also mentioned it, but it would have to slow considerably if it wants a window of development. 12Z GFS still shows no development in the tropics, at least in the short term (only out to 96 right now), and shows no ridge to speak in the east. It does show troughiness along the east coast due to frontal sag, but it keeps the trough there way too long IMO. 92L will have to develop under moderate sheaar until the ULL moves SW away from it. I don't agee with JB and his idea of it getting into the GOM through the straits. That would really surprise me. Now it could get into the GOM, but probably by going through the peninsula. Tropics are interesting but nothing besides Franklin is there yet. Dunno what to make of it all, but things could change in a hurry. Cheers!!
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 04:25 PM |
|
|
|
Re: mixed signals
|
i agree with steve i dont think 92L will go thrr the straits of FL, but it could go thru the FL peninsula unfortunaltey, then into the gulf where it sold strenghten or weaken and landfall or not landfall, only time will tell my friends
.Ryannn
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 04:43 PM |
|
Re: mixed signals
|
Can someone look at this link and tell me what to make of it? Is there something on there that looks bad?
web page
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 04:43 PM |
|
Re: mixed signals
|
Bahamas feature looks like it's trying to build in amplitude and maybe even close off a circulation, but the outflow boundary coming out of the convection to the SW right now doesn't bode well in the short term. It needs the upper pattern to stay as it is to have a shot; if either of the upper-lows on either side start to approach the system and erode the mid/upper-level shortwave ridge it is currently under, it'll probably fade.
I'm not as bullish on 92L being classified today, however. The area of low pressure is broad, elongated NE-SW, and relatively disorganized -- much like the convection -- and there are little or no banding features or concentrated convection in association with the feature. Recon may find a closed circulation today, but my belief is that it'll be too weak for classification. It's going to be a close call for this one as to whether or not it misses the Greater Antilles or plows into them; the flow pattern would suggest a weak storm (i.e. not influenced greatly by the upper-lows to the northeast and northwest) would pass near or over them, while a stronger storm would likely miss them by a bit to the north. Part of it also depends upon whether or not the circulation consolidates to the north of the islands or to the south -- still don't know what'll happen there. Given the current environment, I'd imagine the former (near/over the Greater Antilles) is more likely. Nevertheless, some slow development is possible over the weekend...just not explosive into a monster by any means.
93L and the wave behind it aren't threats for development in the short-term. I missed 93L -- thought it'd develop -- but it got caught up by some drier air and increased shear. It still has a shot further west, but it's a couple of days away from doing anything significant.
Any other close-in development is still a few days away or will likely not be of a tropical nature, along the lines of what HF mentioned.
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 04:50 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
I kind of started the bad posts in this thread and wanted to take a moment to apologize to anyone I offended. I really did not mean to attack the posters. But, I was being extremely sarcastic about the substance of the critters posts and it would surely seem that way, in retrospect. I love this site. Such great information. Sorry I got carried away.
Now for an on-topic question. As I watch the AVN loop for 92 L, I notice the thunderstorms sort of "chasing" what appears to be to be a mid or upper level low. Its almost as though the t-storms got sheared off of the low and are now trying to build back on. In the alternative, it could be that the low is just racing along too far ahead of the t-storms. I have seen the pattern before in the tropics. Wondering if shear is the issue here and, if so, am I right that it may be weakening to allow more convection?
i thought your post was funny without being mean. wit is just more fun than blunt force hollering and browbeating. folks willing to discuss the merits of drooling dogs and startled parakeets as weather forecasting tools have got to be ready for the occasional aside. -HF
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 05:14 PM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
I just checked the NHC site and they said that the system behind 92L has pretty much diminshed. They were talking about the shower and thunderstorm activity, but i would assume that means the end for 93L or 94. They didn't mention invest number. They gave coordinates. Anyway, also, the NWS short term forcast for my area is below....they mention 92L crossing Fla and going into GOM.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/TBW/AFDTBW.0507290712
Please DO NOT post entire discussions in the threads. Use a link or HIGHLIGHT specific portions of said discussion as emphasis. Thank you!
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 05:27 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Well windshear is really keeping 92L from developing. I really dont have anything different to say from Clark. Models on this have been delayed on anything developing. Its hard to tell if the recon will find anything. There is a low there but not organized enough due to the shear. Up to NHC to classify it or not. Still it will become better organized over time.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 05:33 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
The area over the se bahamas is associated with a upperlevel low forecasted to move across S Florida on Saturday. No development will happen from this till maybe when it gets into the gulf. Nothing else seems to have a chance for development outside of 92l over the next 2 days.
| Major7 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 05:36 PM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Well, some dogs can detect cancer.....
and have a sense of hearing that can hear thunder before humans can....
I also think that dogs may be able to feel the drop in pressure.
Does this make them smarter than the meteorologists? No. (well, maybe smarter than some LOL) But I think that, just like animals can sense an imminent earthquake, it is indeed quite possible that animals can detect other natural phenomenon as well.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 05:41 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Sorry about that....didn't know!!
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 05:47 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Anyone watch JB's video today? I did...he was talking about Typhoons having similar tracks across the lats as the atlantic storms. Also said that disturbance over Bahamas will move into GOM as will 92L. He has also been talking, for days now, about a storm developing off the coast of LA and hitting TX. He also claims a storm will develope off Eastern seaboard near carolinas and head northward. What do you guys think of that??
| jbmusic |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 06:09 PM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
I usually take what JB has to say and watch it as the days progress. He is real good at seeing what is not there, sometimes what he see becomes visiable to the rest of us and other times it doesn't. He definitly has a different way of looking at things and he is very entertaining while he does it. My advise to you is keeping watching the areas he is pointing out but don't go cancelling plans, because alot of times his theories don't pan out
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 06:09 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Intersting wind are gusting to 29 MPH in st.thomas with wind and rain right know this may mean we have a deppression let wait and see what the national hurricane center has to say
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 06:15 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Rain & 29 mph winds (with no indication of direction, even)? Seems hard to say anything about being a depression or not based solely on those facts. With that wave over the Virgin Islands right now, I'd be surprised if there WEREN'T rain and gusts of at least 20 mph, but that doesn't mean much as to whether it's a depression. Info. on wind direction throughout the region and P.R. satellite imagery would be a lot more helpful.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 06:18 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Oh i don't take him seriously. I just wanted to know what you guys thought. Although, he may be right about the trouble in the Bahamas; even the NHC said developement, if any, would be slow to occur (as with 92L) because of shearing.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 06:24 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
I agree with you Brad. Gusts of 29MPH don't mean there is a depression. We get gusts a lot higher than that with our every afternoon thunderstorms...well, you know about that, you live in Florida. I don't know why someone would say they "think" there is a depression just because winds are gusting to almost 30. I guess that means we had a depression here yesterday because the wind gusted to over 35 a few times!!
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 06:32 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
What time would 1430Z be and what time would 1930Z to 2300Z be? I assume that is the departure times and completion times for the RECON plane. I still have not been able to figure that out. Also, does anyone know how to convert knots to mph?
edited: also what time is it using UTC
eastern standard time subtract 4 hrs to get our time. for daylight (like now) subtract 5 hrs. 1930z is 2:30 PM EDT.
Other way around, HF. Subtract 4hr now -- e.g. the NHC 11am discussion on Franklin came out at 14:35 UTC or 10:35am ET -- and when we fall back in November, it'll go to 5hr. --Clark
i confused myself. -HF I think I am now too.
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 06:48 PM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
To convert knots to mph multiply the knots by 1.15: for example, 20 knots x 1.15 equals 23mph; 100 knots equals 115 mph.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 06:53 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Thanks Clark, and thanks cool!
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 06:57 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Quote:
Anyone watch JB's video today? I did...he was talking about Typhoons having similar tracks across the lats as the atlantic storms. Also said that disturbance over Bahamas will move into GOM as will 92L. He has also been talking, for days now, about a storm developing off the coast of LA and hitting TX. He also claims a storm will develope off Eastern seaboard near carolinas and head northward. What do you guys think of that??
when you talk about a storm developing of NC/SC are we talking depression or like hurricane, just wondering, and also when should i start watchingg out?
| Pamie |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 06:59 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
The Weather Channel just showed in there Tropical Update that plane is on it's way to check it out and that we may have information by 4pm.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 07:01 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 07:04 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Ryan - JB doesn't always know what he is talking about. I was watching TWC and the area that JB was talking about, an area of thunderstorms, looked to be diminishing as it exited the coast into the atlantic. BUT, i am no weatherman, so you'll have to keep yourself tuned into NOAA, NHC and your local weather.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 07:04 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Can someone tell me where to find out the pressure (mb) in the areas of interest? Someone mentioned the navy site earlier, but I can not find where to go on that site.
Edit: If we want to stay on-topic, could someone then let me know the answer to my question if someone knows it?
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 07:06 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
My post is still there and wasn't deemed by any Mods as being rude....i think they saw the humor in it. I am sorry if you were offended by my comments, but i didn't see the need for a private message telling me i was rude. I was trying to be funny and i am sorry i thought you would think the same.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 07:08 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
the PM for the rude-ness was for the comment before the funny one, i understood the funny one.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 07:08 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
I am sorry, but some people on here need to lighten up a little!!!!! Laugh or something!!!!!
Next post like this will go to the graveyard! Ha Ha Ha
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 07:32 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Animals rely more on instinct than we do. We have learned to rely on technology so much that we have lost some of our ability to "sense" what is happening in nature. Because we no longer have to rely on our senses as much we don't use them as much. Animals have to pay attention to "signs" for survival purposes, of course. They are simply more in tune with what is happening in nature.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 07:40 PM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
It would seem that NWS in Miami are leaning toward less development of 92L at this time. Here are some key points from their AFD. The full product can be found here
ALTHOUGH IT WAS LOOKING MORE IMPRESSIVE EARLIER (FRI MORNING) IT NOW SHOWS A MORE RAGGED LOOK. OBSERVATIONS FROM THE LEEWARD ISLAND/AND QUICKSCAT SHOW NO CIRCULATION WITH THIS SYSTEM.
SOME GUIDANCE DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE AND BRING IT TO NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEFORE TURNING IT NORTHWEST WITHOUT MUCH EFFECT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. GFS ON THE OTHER HAND...TREATS THIS SYSTEM AS OPEN WAVE AND BRING IT TO FLORIDA SOMETIME BETWEEN LATE WED THROUGH THU EVENING. WILL TEND TO GO CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION...GIVEN THE RAGGED LOOK OF THE SYSTEM...BUT STILL WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER RUN OF THE MODELS BEFORE MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
| Dawn |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 07:47 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Please you all be carefull-do not post or say anything that you cannot back up. This is a hobby! You all have to remember you are a novice except for a select few on this forum, please do not read between the lines, trust the select few here and learn! I am still learning after 1 year on this forum and living in Florida since 1954.
Dawn
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 07:49 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
What are you talking about? I didn't post anything that needed backup, did i?
| Dawn |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 07:51 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
It seems we have alot of new people on this site which required lock down,they register and now can post. Nothing against you!
| amonty |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 08:04 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Quote:
Please you all be carefull-do not post or say anything that you cannot back up. This is a hobby! You all have to remember you are a novice except for a select few on this forum, please do not read between the lines, trust the select few here and learn! I am still learning after 1 year on this forum and living in Florida since 1954.
Dawn
Your right this is a hobby. I personally don't see anything wrong with anyone saying anything that can't be backed up because of the fact they're not meteorologists. Anyone who takes a "hobbyist" speculation seriously
isn't thinking right. That's like asking a nurse to perform brain surgery. Sure she knows the basics but lacks the personal experience and the full schooling of a real brain suregeon.I personally use this website for insight as to what is going on in the tropics. For factual information I only use the NHC that's they're job! To protect the public and keep them informed.
| jbmusic |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 08:08 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Thank you I Agree 100%
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 08:15 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
BRING BACK PALOMA
yeah, lets bring back polio and boy george while we're at it. -HF
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 08:26 PM |
|
Broad area of low pressure center trying to form south of St. Croix
|
Using the long range radar loop out of Puerto Rico 92L appears to be trying to develop a center south of St. Croix... it has SE, E and NE motion to the rain pattern but not discernable W component yet, but that could develop at any moment...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/jua_N0Z_lp.html
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 08:29 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Paloma... hehe, now those were the good old days...
Steve, interesting to see if we get any home grown stuff late in the weekend... the atmoshere in the area is quite charged the past two days as we've been getting pummeled with some pretty good thunderstorms...
| Dawn |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 08:30 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
I also use the NHC for the final word. I just worry about the hobby taken to the point that people believe and not know who the people are that have the smarts to post something we can look at or trust their thoughts.
I depend on this site to keep my sanity(sp) and to teach me.
I am sorry I started this-it is now over!
Dawn
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 08:32 PM |
|
Re: Broad area of low pressure center trying to form south of St. Croix
|
Quote:
Using the long range radar loop out of Puerto Rico 92L appears to be trying to develop a center south of St. Croix... it has SE, E and NE motion to the rain pattern but not discernable W component yet, but that could develop at any moment...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/jua_N0Z_lp.html
Does it really look like it trying to wrap around? Looks like it to me. But I am still unexperienced.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 08:33 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
>>Paloma... hehe, now those were the good old days...
Glad someone remembered. He's around on other forums and has improved quite a bit in coherence (most of the time)...
>>Steve, interesting to see if we get any home grown stuff late in the weekend... the atmoshere in the area is quite charged the past two days as we've been getting pummeled with some pretty good thunderstorms...
We didn't see anything today but yesterday evening it was booming by my house. Maybe I need to go look at the radar to see if something's cooking for later today.
Steve
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 08:38 PM |
|
Re: Broad area of low pressure center trying to form south of St. Croix
|
study the loop and you can see it trying to wrap around... I'm not sure at what levels this is occurring ... it could the either be at the low or mid levels... I have not checked out the sat loops to see if I could verify... ..... you can see it wrapping from the S, SE, E, NE and a touch of N... but still NO NORTHWEST or WEST rain bands.... you start seeing some type of west component then this thing could become a depression...
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 08:43 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
another point, and I'm not saying 92L will develop but if it does, and at this particular location SE of St.Croix, none of the model runs would be correct because none ever had it at this particular location... its also heading for the Dominican Republic, which is not a place a struggling TC wants to visit because of its high mountains...
| RyanRedCross1 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 08:53 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Yes Frank, I hope the Dominican rips it apart!
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 08:55 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Looking at the latest recon reports show a pressure found so far of 1013mb, at 17.7N and 64.0W. With a southeast wind 21 knots.
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 08:57 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Quote:
Looking at the latest recon reports show a pressure found so far of 1013mb, at 17.7N and 64.0W. With a southeast wind 21 knots.
Would that be enough for a depression? I'm not keen at converting KTS into MPH. Is a depression 30mph?
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 09:09 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
that plot is about 65-70 miles ENE of the radar center that I've been tracking
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 09:14 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
As of 4:57 pm 16.5N, 64.2W, wind east wind 5 knots, pressure 1013mb. I am really not sure there going to find a closed low. Maybe a broad low, we shall see...
The 21knot wind speed is equal to about 24 mph.
5:06pm, 16.3N, 65.4W, east wind 5 knots, pressure 1013mb, LARGE CELL JUST NORTH OF FLIGHT TRACK
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 09:22 PM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
No cigar yet still not a TD maybe late tonight or Tomorrow just a strong Wave as of 5:30PM...................
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 09:23 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Per the NHC TWO at 5:00
CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE VICINITY OF PUERTO RICO AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS. ANOTHER RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 09:27 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
for all the newbies to the site, one could monitor the PR radar loops tonight and perhaps see the evolution of a TD via the radar presentation, if it even comes to fruition... if so, and it continues to develop I would expect the models to shift perhaps more to the left and the potential impact to Southern Florida a real possibility, including as far south as the Keys... prematurely speculating on my part....
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 09:27 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
I think recon found a wind from 200 degrees at 17.2/64.0, so (assuming I'm reading this correctly) an LLC may be in the process of forming, or a weak one may have formed:
URNT11 KNHC 292056 97779 20304 60172 64000 04100 20012 24208 /0013 41815 RMK AF304 01FFA INVEST OB 13
Is 17.2/64.0 in the vicinity of the possible center you were tracking, Frank?
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 09:28 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
I agree with you there is this does hit the Dominican Republic.... those mountians will take the wind of that system..........
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 09:28 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
I disagree with the idea of mountains of DR/Haiti having any effect where there is no closed low-level circulation. If there isn't one, then there isn't one that can be destroyed or interrupted by the mountains. JMO but it would require a TD, TS, or H to be affected below 10,000 feet. The wave will march on unless it's closed off by that time.
Steve
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 09:34 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Steve:
I think we assume that it would be a TD or TS by the time it reaches mountains of DR/Haiti , if not then you are right a wave would not be effect by the mountians,
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 09:34 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Brad, the broad center I was tracking was around ~17.2 and 65 and that would have been east of the center, so if it were a west wind that would confirm some type of closed low, albeit quit broad in nature...
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 09:36 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Yeah, that makes it appear there is a closed low. But presumably too broad, and/or without enough sustained convection near the center, to be classified. Good call on the center you were tracking; appears to be the one recon found.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 09:39 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Looking at the radar loop it going to be close as to if it goes right over the island or perhaps stays just south...... per the NHC it could gain TD status as early as tonight, in which case the interaction with the DR is certainly not going to allow it to develop too much during the interaction
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 09:43 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
thanks Brad, the really interesting thing I find about this broad area of low pressure is that it is absolutely nowhere near any of the models plots that have been run... could get interesting for south Florida if 92 L can get its act together.......
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 09:59 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Hey guys,
i think this system has a good shot at development of some sort, and i am aliitle surprised we havents seen a SPecial Tropical Disturbance Statement yet. Givent he radar and satellite imagery, it would appear that if it does develop it will be initially poorly organised and will take a while to consolidate.
| RyanRedCross1 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 10:26 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Hi RichB... greetings from the SE Coast of Florida. I am so glad to see that this thing has not gotten its act together today-- or may i be wrong? I like to think time is on our side!
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 10:37 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
i think we may see a S FL landfall but im not sure it has the potential of becoming a hurricane so im think a TS by the time it reaches south flrorida..a lot of the models have it going thru a lot or islands before reaching florida. So i mean this thing wont have much space for developement it looks like.
The spaghetti model plots have it going thru DR/HAITI then going thru many or the "Bahaman" islands..so as time goes on, i think the possibility or a hurricane weakens..what do others think?
Edit -- the link you provided is to someone's mirror of subscriber (i.e. for-pay) content off of another website. I don't think the people who run Hurricane Alley would be too appreciative of their data being posted elsewhere for free; it also violates copyright laws. It's one thing to mirror something freely available or with permission; it's another to do it without permission and of something not freely available. Please use the freely available SFWMD images (accessible on the front page of this site) in the future...thanks! --Clark
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 10:42 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
I believe 'spacing' is not an issue. The water temp is warm enough to cause a rapid growth spurt. It may be too early to even assume that this could grow in our own backyard.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 10:44 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
treu, i mean its awfully close to becoming something to worry about, and we still have not even a TD so i mean if there is a growth spurt, it will most likely be a growth spurt into a strong TS
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 10:58 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Lets say that 92L does get it's act together and heads towards south florida...what kind of conditions do you think we may be looking at once it arrives? Is there enough time for this thing to grow into a major storm, or are we looking at a TS, perhaps minimal cat 1??
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 11:03 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
If something does form, i hope it does now because the mountains of Haiti and DR will tear it apart....if nothing forms, then all you have is some squally stuff going over mountains - not going to do anything to it.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 11:15 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Quote:
Lets say that 92L does get it's act together and heads towards south florida...what kind of conditions do you think we may be looking at once it arrives? Is there enough time for this thing to grow into a major storm, or are we looking at a TS, perhaps minimal cat 1??
Too soon to say..looks likely it will develop though. I would expect rapid intensification once the system clears the island of Hispanola..if it stays north of Cuba..warm SSTs..upper level winds become more favorable..although none of the models really have a good handle on it..even the GFDL keeps it a weak system..but we all know these models aren't real good at intensity..& I agree LI Phil..the location further south then earlier models puts S FL (& keys) at greater risk..as well as the SW FL coast
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 11:22 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Quote:
[I agree LI Phil..the location further south then earlier models puts S FL (& keys) at greater risk..as well as the SW FL coast
wtf? i didn't say that...please don't confuse me with ryan
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 29 2005 11:57 PM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
wtf? "what the frank".. .... hehe........
radar presentation on 92L this evening from Puerto Rico not quite as good as late this afternoon's presentation as the center or what appears to be the center south of the very eastern part of PR..
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 12:07 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
It is too soon to say that 92L will affect Florida. However, hypothetically, I think history has shown that rapid intensification is possible in that area. Not sure if the atmospheric dynamics will support explosive intensification there, though. I think the SST's would allow it, though.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 12:10 AM |
|
|
|
Bear Watch
|
wtf? Is the abbreviation for World Turf Football.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 12:15 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Quote:
It is too soon to say that 92L will affect Florida. However, hypothetically, I think history has shown that rapid intensification is possible in that area. Not sure if the atmospheric dynamics will support explosive intensification there, though. I think the SST's would allow it, though.
I'm not quite following your Rapid Intensification post.
Unclosed Low, at this time, and a good part of the future track is over land/ islands.
Terrain above 5000ft and/ or the 850mb level. Any vortice that might spin up, or down will have a very hard time holding together against the Greater Antilles topography.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 12:20 AM |
|
|
|
Rapid Deepening
|
Tropical Cyclone:
A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center.
Rapid Deepening:
A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 1.75 mb/hr or 42 mb for 24 hours.
Explosive Deepening:
A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 2.5 mb/hr for at least 12 hours or 5 mb/hr for at least six hours.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 12:28 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Rapid Deepening
|
WTF? If that were me, it would have been sent to the graveyard.
I am not a met, in fact, like Dawn put it, i am novice when it comes to weather, but i don't see this thing getting too strong considering the terrain it will endure and the short distance between land and sea.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 12:53 AM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Sorry guys,But I don't see much of anything there.Looks like a mess.Maybe that will change,but as of now,not much to worry about.
| susieq |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 01:15 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
What are those tiny red dots that appear from time to time in this loop? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 01:21 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Have you forgotten to take your medication today Susie??
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 01:22 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
I checked it out and zoomed in on it.....the red dots could be little areas of thunderstorms popping up....not sure though......the other guys probably know.
| susieq |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 01:28 AM |
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Love it!!
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 01:29 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Quote:
What are those tiny red dots that appear from time to time in this loop? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
The red dots are probably thunderstorm cells that are very short-lived. Under better conditions, these 'red dots' are what you would see grow into large red areas and possibly into a CDO. Under near perfect conditions.
One other explanation. I didn't see them shear off. They grew vertically and just died.
Dry air aloft...above the 'red level'.
Collapse of the 'convection'...rained itself out.
| susieq |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 01:30 AM |
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Must have been the wine.....
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 01:38 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Daniel - I was watching the loop for the system/disturbance over the Bahamas and it looked really disorganized and coming apart, perhaps. Did you happen to see it when you looked at 92L loop?
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 01:39 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
or the beer.
Anyway, will it develop near PR or farther East to the NE of the leeward islands? or not at all? Looks to be a very complex system.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 01:44 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
I agree with you there but it's a mess!
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 01:47 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
92L is looking pretty sick..it must be coming down with something..what are peoples predictions for the storm?
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 02:16 AM |
|
|
|
Franklin is Gone. 92L-Another Day
|
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2005 (edited~danielw)
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FRANKLIN IS QUICKLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. AS SUCH...THE NHC ISSUED ITS LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY FOR FRANKLIN AT 2100 UTC...
A 1013 MB LOW PRES CENTER CONTINUES TO BE ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 18N OR JUST SE OF PUERTO RICO.
HOWEVER...DATA FROM AN EARLIER AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INDICATED THAT A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION DID NOT EXIST.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/300005.shtml?
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 02:17 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Alright. General prediction: The atmosphere "burped" pretty significantly in July. I'm thinking nothing major will form for a while, but the season will produce a couple of major (historical) storms late August through September. We'll probably see some lesser storms before then. I think we're in a lull for the time being.
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 03:02 AM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
92L looking worse than earlier in the day, wind shear is getting the best of it right now. The shear conditions are not expected to lessen significantly until Sunday when IMO is when there will be a better chance for development.
TG
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 03:20 AM |
|
|
92L Bears Watching
|
Looking at the airflow, If a depression is going to develop, the best spot appears to be further back. say 60W 18N or so. Of course the spin is still evident on PR radar, but I think the main action will be further to the east and North of the current low. The biggest question for me is, will the energy continue to transfer west into the massive blob of convecion (that is unorganized but still fairly presistant). I'd say you might see something popping up in 12 - 24 hours east of PR.
The southern track looks like it's still stifled for moisture, so I think it'll kinda trek along for a while doing a whole lot of nothing.
Of course, I've been wrong before....In fact I'm usually wrong so
expect a hurricane south west of PR in 36 hours
(I kid, but it sure feels like you should expect the opposite of what I think)-Mark
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 03:26 AM |
|
|
|
What used to be 93L...
|
I'm hazarding it would be around 13N 50W or so... looks like it's gaining a little moisture, but even with storms now, how long would some presistant convection take to get something fired up down there...
(I'm presuming that used to be 93L correct me if I'm wrong please
-Mark
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 03:38 AM |
|
Re: 92L Bears Watching
|
I agree with ya... almost looks like the wave is splitting in half via the IR loop, the western most part probably move off to the west, and the section lagging behind off to the northeast that you are discussing... this might be the area that eventually develops, who knows... would expect this to perhaps move more northwesterly over time... heck, by tomorrow no telling what will be going on with 92L, can say this however, the convection and center that we were tracking south of PR is pretty weak now and really opening up in the southern half.... just your normal weak tropical wave trying to figure out what it wants to do.... if its going to do anything....
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 03:45 AM |
|
Re: 92L Bears Watching
|
Windshear from the upper low to its N has pretty much destroyed the weak circulation 92L has yesterday into today. Recon found almost a closed low near St Croix but it wasnt closed.
Anyways if 1 does develop it wont be for at least a day or 2. The windshear has really hurt its chances. Expect it to continue towards the wnw and be in the bahamas by Sunday with another oppertunity to develop.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 04:03 AM |
|
Re: 92L Bears Watching
|
it came really close this afternoon into closing off the low but it just wasnt in the cards I guess... it was interesting tracking it on the PR radar loops... nothing else to to but watch and see what happens... guess I'll have to watch for bears on the discovery channel late tonight with 92L fizzling
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 04:11 AM |
|
|
|
Bear Watch
|
Another...small area to watch. It appears that the 'cool' front is making a push into the Northern GOM.
I noticed a MCS, moving offshore, just SE of Galveston.
With a front (weak front at that) pushing into the GOM, you can always watch for a Low to develop along the front.
Climatology for this year seems to be out the window. So it might be wasted energy on our part.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 04:17 AM |
|
Re: Bear Watch
|
yeah several local mets from NO were talking about something home grown... one said a weak system would develop off of Morgan city while another mentioned that something could develop south of the MS/AL line, and remain basically stationary... there was a very weak circulation south of the AL/FL this afternoon but it was amost impossible to see on the sat loops... extremely weak to say the least... both mets said that the system, if it comes to anything, would remain weak...
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 04:33 AM |
|
|
|
92L Update
|
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1157 PM AST FRI JUL 29 2005
.UPDATE...THE TROPICAL WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE CROSSED THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS IN THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. VIGOROUS PRECIPITATION NOW CONTINUES IN BANDS OF A V FORM ON BOTH SIDES OF THE WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN. PRECIPITABLE WATER HAS INCREASED TO 2.38 INCHES SO THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY MOIST. RADAR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE IS NO CLOSED CIRCULATION SO WILL NOT EXPECT DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 04:44 AM |
|
Re: 92L Update
|
yeah no doubt... from what I can tell its not as well organized as this afternoon either, however, a slight increase in convection is showing up on the IR loops in the general area of what once was almost the center.... boy its getting late for me
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 09:19 AM |
|
|
|
92L 5 AM EDT Update
|
San Juan Radar is indicating at least one, if not two, areas of circulation in the rain and thunderstorms.
One is indicated South of the Mona Passage (SW Puerto Rico) and the other, just off the NW shore of Puerto Rico.
The southern circulation appeared to have more convective type precipitation. And the area on the northern side of Puerto Rico appeared to be more stratiform type precipitation.
Aquadilla and Ponce are reporting lightning this hour.
San Juan, Charlotte Amalie-St. Thomas, and Christiansted are reporting light rain.
Charlotte Amalie and Christiansted were noted to have backing winds over the last few hours.
| zacros |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 11:56 AM |
|
|
Re: 92L 5 AM EDT Update
|
Does anyone have a link for long range radars out of PR?
Nevermind, I guess I should have googled it before asking the questions.
Puerto Rico Radar
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 12:24 PM |
|
|
Re: 92L 5 AM EDT Update
|
Watching 92L for the past several days, it doesn't appear to be organizing at all. If it brings some rain over Florida that would be welcomed. It's been a very dry Jully in most areas.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 12:42 PM |
|
Re: 92L 5 AM EDT Update
|
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS JUST OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF FLORIDA.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY IN
SOUTH FLORIDA...IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND NEAR THE BAHAMAS.
Are they referring to the blob on the eastern tip of Florida or are the satellites behind on the update?
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 01:55 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 92L 5 AM EDT Update
|
Quote:We get a thunder storm here almost every day,with brief heavy rain.And given how much rain we got in May and June,we do not need any rain.
Watching 92L for the past several days, it doesn't appear to be organizing at all. If it brings some rain over Florida that would be welcomed. It's been a very dry Jully in most areas.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 02:14 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 92L 5 AM EDT Update
|
Quote:The Tampa Bay area is above normal for the year so far - slightly below normal for July.Quote:We get a thunder storm here almost every day,with brief heavy rain.And given how much rain we got in May and June,we do not need any rain.
Watching 92L for the past several days, it doesn't appear to be organizing at all. If it brings some rain over Florida that would be welcomed. It's been a very dry Jully in most areas.
| Major7 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 02:22 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 92L 5 AM EDT Update
|
On the first day of hurricane season here in Hollywood, FL., we were down 6.65 inches of precipitation below normal for the year. By July, we made that deficit up and were actually a quarter of an inch above normal, which is basically where we stand now on the last day of the second month of the season.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 03:19 PM |
|
|
Re: 92L 5 AM EDT Update
|
We're a bit above average here in Pensacola too.....28.5 inches above average! We certainly don't need any more rain..until maybe Christmas. The good thing is that 92L's circulation is very near the Hispanola coast and formation looks like a long shot for the next 24 hours.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 03:26 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 92L 5 AM EDT Update
|
Georges was 1998 - Not 1997. I say that because i was working for an insurance company in Sarasota at the time and me and a few other guys had to drive to Venice to rent ryder trucks. The company wanted to pack up all their important stuff. I worked at this place in 1998, and if memory serves i believe it was August when Georges skimmed our coast and headed north towards Pensacola/Mobile.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 03:39 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 92L 5 AM EDT Update
|
Your right...Sept 98...too many storms to remember the last 10 years...4 eyewalls will do that too you....
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 03:53 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 93L coming back to life?
|
Looking like old 93L which fizzled yesterday is starting to come back to life. Recon may check it out tomorrow:
ANOTHER WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES
EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20-25
MPH. SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS WAVE HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED
DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE SOMEWHAT
FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE AVAILABLE TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.
As far as 92L is concerned, shear pretty much tore it apart and looks like it will be heading in the general direction of the bahamas as an open wave during the next few days. Overall looks like a relatively quiet weekend on hand.
TG
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 04:27 PM |
|
Re: 93L coming back to life?
|
Yeah parts of central florida are below avg for July rainfall. They need a couple days of .5 inches or rain.
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 04:31 PM |
|
|
Re: 93L coming back to life?
|
I'm not sure 92L is dead yet. The latest runs of NOGAPS and the MM5 show the remains of 92L making it into the Gulf. MM5 even shows it becoming a major storm right off the west coast of Florida.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 04:44 PM |
|
Re: 93L coming back to life?
|
93L has no west wind with it. Moreless a east and north wind, hard to see but maybe a south wind. Cant get any ship reports from there. Anything if any does develop will be very slow. There is no model support for this as of 12z.
92L again wont develop untill Sunday( if at all) as the upper low to its NNW is moving WSW. By later tomorrow the shear will become ventilation as a ridge forms over or just east of 92L. As 92L slows down near the Turks it could become better organized. CMC and some GFS want to take a piece of this and take it NE towards bermuda by mid week. While also taking it west across florida Tuesday. Whatever is near the bahamas or south of there will be pushed west into the gulf with the ridge over N florida.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 04:50 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 93L coming back to life?
|
I live on west coast of florida, south of Tampa and we are above average in rainfall. As a matter of fact, we have been under a flood watch/warning for a while now. Well, every other day they say we are under a watch and or warning. It doesn't take much rain for the manatee river in myakka city to flood and of course there is Lake Manatee and it's reservoir. The last two to three years we have been doing well in the rain department - time or a lull!
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 04:55 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 93L coming back to life?
|
I just checked the forecast discussion for my area and it says two tropical waves will make their way through the southern part of the state mid week....says nothing of them being too frisky.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/TBW/AFDTBW.0507301633
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 05:00 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 93L coming back to life?
|
Quote:
I just checked the forecast discussion for my area and it says two tropical waves will make their way through the southern part of the state mid week....says nothing of them being too frisky.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/TBW/AFDTBW.0507301633
Thanks for the link. The Ft. Myers ten-day forecast shows slightly lower temperatures beginning Tuesday of next week, but the chance of rain has not gone up. Here's hoping that doesn't change. We don't need any more rain here. We're already 9 inches over our normal precipitation levels.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 05:05 PM |
|
Re: 93L coming back to life?
|
Just matters where you live in florida for needed rain. Little Manatee River floods all the time down there. I dont think your under a floodwatch but anytime it rains that could happen.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 05:15 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 93L coming back to life?
|
Currently we are not under a watch, but at least three to four times a week we are.....you know the scene.....you are watching a local tv channel, maybe it's your fav sitcom, when all of a sudden, *BEEP, BEEP, BEEP* this text rolls the bottom of your screen saying there is a flood watch...LOL....happens almost everyday!
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 05:19 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 93L coming back to life?
|
You are welcome! I think the whole west coast from Tampa to Naples has seen enough rain for a while. Here is something interesting and maybe the mets on here can offer an explanation: When i first moved here in 1987, the everyday summer thunderstorms arrived between 1pm-4pm. Gradually over the years the storms arrive later and later and now, even though it clouds up around 2pm, the thunderstorms don't hit until almost 5pm.....is this do to the change in the Atlantic??
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 05:24 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 93L coming back to life?
|
LOL I think the storms hit at 5:00 because that's when everybody has to drive home from work!
In all seriousness though, that's a good question. I'm curious to know what the answer is.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 05:32 PM |
|
|
Re: 93L coming back to life?
|
I know the feeling - the big line that came through MD on Wednesday hit between 6 and 7 pm. I was without power for a full day...
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 05:45 PM |
|
Re: 93L coming back to life?
|
Actually parts of the Tampa area are up to 2 inches below normal for the month of July...my grass can use some rain..hehehe.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 05:51 PM |
|
Re: 93L coming back to life?
|
Thunderstorms hit when there is enough instability in the atmosphere. Matters where in florida you live and which way the winds are blowing. For example a east wind across the state would mean the west coast should recieve the storms due to their sea-breeze colliding with the east wind by noon but some areas might not get it till later in the afternoon. Also vice versa. Also some days a upper level low or trough might be in the area causing the storms to pop up almost anytime during the daytime hours.
Overall its how much moisture is in the atmosphere,daytime heating and wind direction that will determine where and when storms arrive. Florida during the summer is hit-miss so you may not get hit till 5 but others might get hit hours before or after even. There is no change to this since recordings started in the late 1800s.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 07:28 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 93L coming back to life?
|
JB said a couple of days ago that it was possible for a system to form on the tail end of the recent front, in the NE GOM. Have not heard much talk about it but there is a lot of convection firing and lots of Rain here in the panhandle today. Might be worth watching .
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 08:21 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 93L coming back to life?
|
93L seems to be getting better organized this afternoon. It is also in the same area that Emily formed. Not good.
Latest Trop Wx Discussion
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 08:29 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 93L coming back to life?
|
Yes, but that 2" could come today and tomorrow.
| schmoo |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 08:33 PM |
|
Re: 93L coming back to life?
|
Is the low south of AL/FL starting to do something?
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 08:36 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 93L coming back to life?
|
Quote:That appears to be mostly onshore, so I don't think much will develop there.
Is the low south of AL/FL starting to do something?
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 09:05 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 93L coming back to life?
|
Both systems look much better this afternoon.Thunder storms are really flaring up.Will have to wait and see if this continues.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 09:47 PM |
|
|
|
92L, 93L and GOM
|
Looking at the sat shots, there might be some sort of low pressure around 21N 67W in 92L. We'll have to see if that bears out, but it looks like there could be something trying to brew up there. Nothing organized at the moment on PR Radar, but it's still worth a look-see.
The GOM low appears off shore but it's very disorganized with another possible low onshore, and there looks like some shear in the area that could complicate any possible development. Tallahassee radar shows a small small hint of a turn in the storms that are due south of Mobile, but it's quite possibly just a transient feature.
93L seems to have it's main energy to the south 11N 55W or so, which, similar to Emily, could mean running into South America if it doesn't start poking north. Again, nothing really organized at the moment, so whatever is going to develop, it's going to develop slowly.
Not quite a Nothing to see, move along, But I don't think we'll see a depression before August.
-Mark
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 10:32 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 92L, 93L and GOM
|
Quote:
Tallahassee radar shows a small small hint of a turn in the storms that are due south of Mobile, but it's quite possibly just a transient feature.
-Mark
Mobile is at the extreme edge of TLH radar.
Vortice at that range would be above 15,000 feet.
Not low level.
| Major7 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 10:38 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 92L, 93L and GOM
|
NHC 7/30/05
5PM
TAFB Atlantic Forecasts and Analyses
There are no tropical cyclones in the Atlantic at this time.
TAFB East Pacific Forecasts and Analyses
There are no tropical cyclones in the East Pacific at this time.
*sigh*
| Major7 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 10:49 PM |
|
|
Re: 92L, 93L and GOM
|
What kind of feature is spinning in the Atlantic at
30N 40W ?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 11:06 PM |
|
Re: 92L, 93L and GOM
|
I, for one, am kinda glad there's nothing out there for once! We went 28 straight days -- from July 2nd to 29th -- with no gaps in classified systems in the Atlantic basin. That's pretty active for any time of year, yet alone July. I don't think the break is going to last, however. 93L is progressing along rather well and is the biggest candidate for development. Recon might head out there tomorrow; I've got some thoughts on it in my latest blog entry, available on the front page.
The feature near 30N/40W is an upper-level low -- akin to what HF was harping on early this week -- and isn't a likely candidate for tropical development. It's firing convection, however, which may kick into gear some sort of tropical mode of development (and perhaps a hybrid-type structure down the line)...but that's certainly not a given.
| Major7 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Jul 30 2005 11:46 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 92L, 93L and GOM
|
Clark,
If you've got a minute to play teacher again....
When you and others say "hybrid-like structure", what exactly does that mean?
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 12:07 AM |
|
|
Re: 92L, 93L and GOM
|
The short of it is... not tropical, but not quite extratropical either. A system that shares characteristics of both.
Nicole last year was a subtropical storm.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 12:24 AM |
|
Re: 92L, 93L and GOM
|
Lysis took care of the basics in the post above, but it's essentially a storm that isn't entirely cold-core (i.e. extratropical) or entirely warm-core (i.e. tropical). Often, these storms develop a shallow warm-core at low-levels, maintaining their cold-core structure aloft. The wind field isn't as expansive as an extratropical system, but not as tight and well-defined (or as strong) as a tropical system. Convection has some organization with colder cloud tops near the center, unlike an extratropical system, but does not consolidate into a core feature nor does it tend to maintain itself over a period of days (instead opting for bursts), unlike a tropical system.
Sometimes they undergo "tropical transition" (the opposite of extratropical transition), where they sit over warm waters for a number of days well-removed from the mid-latitude pattern and gradually acquire tropical characteristics, like Nicole last year and Ana in 2003, but more often than not they do not. Persistent convection and a contracting wind field (which you can judge with QuikSCAT fields) are generally the best signs that something might be occurring; it takes convection and its associated updrafts coupled with inflow at low levels generally found with a surface area of low pressure to get something going, much like with a tropical wave, but it has the added requisite of overcoming a cold core aloft.
Needless to say, we'll have to watch it, but anything that happens is going to be slow to get going and not anything that should threaten land.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 01:42 AM |
|
Re: 92L, 93L and GOM
|
Perhaps it's just my eyes, but could someone knowledgeable explain why 92 looks better now... when it's over Hispaniola... than it did over open water?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 01:43 AM |
|
|
|
Something going on here?
|
I don't see anything, but.....
TRAINING CELLS ARE MOVING OVER PALM BEACH WATERS AND ONSHORE BETWEEN BOCA RATON AND WEST PALM BEACH. THIS HAS PROMPTED SOME CONCERN ABOUT MINOR FLOODING.
OVER MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES...WINDS ARE NORTH TO NORTHEAST...AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FROM NASSAU TO FREEPORT.
THIS HINTS AT WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...COMPLETE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS CONVECTION IS SHOWING UP ON RADAR.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 01:47 AM |
|
Re: 92L, 93L and GOM
|
yeah I was just watching that loop, it does have more convection now than it did yesterday afternoon when it "almost" formed an LLC.... and its been over the DR/H all day....
the GOM system is non existant at the moment... 93L is also losing quite a bit of its convection this evening in the southern part but convection busting loose on the northern end as it approaches the islands...
regardless none of em appear to be in any hurry to develop, if they ever develop..... slow night in the tropics....
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 02:14 AM |
|
Re: 92L, 93L and GOM
|
92L is getting a boost from the daytime convective cycle over Hispaniola and from diffluent flow aloft in association with the upper low just to its north. It's got much more convection n association with it, but that's about it.
I'm not sure what the NWS is getting at with those winds down in South Florida. All of the other South Florida reporting stations along both coasts show offshore winds, indicative of the nighttime land breeze becoming established. The slight turning in the winds could be an indicator of the approaching rain band from the east, but the QuikSCAT pass from just a couple of hours ago shows nothing significant. Wouldn't worry about it.
93L looks a bit better organized this evening; while the convective tops are cooling a little near the center of the mid-level feature, the banding structures are becoming better defined on IR satellite imagery. A QuikSCAT pass from about 5hr ago suggests a weak circulation center was forming near 10N/57W, or about where the convective complex was at that time. Convection to the north is firing along an outflow boundary put down by the convection that was around 14N/53W earlier this afternoon and isn't too much to worry about. Expect things to go slowly.
Before, I had said that recon would go out there if the convection held up and the low-level center stuck around. Well, in the two frames after I initially posted this, the convection almost entirely went kaput. It's gotta make a recovery overnight to see recon out there tomorrow...long-term the prospects for development are still there, but something needs to stick consistently. Seeing the outflow boundary go out earlier isn't necessarily all bad -- the whole setup fits well with one of the researched theories of tropical development -- but beyond that, I still need to see more to be bullish again on this one.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 02:16 AM |
|
Re: Something going on here?
|
the area of convection off the SE coast of FL is associated with an ULL which is evident on the water vapor loop... radar loop out of the keys also shows poorly defined associated circulation
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 11:37 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
Still gone for most of the weekend, but Gert was the last storm for July. Neither of the waves will devellop before the end of the Month. And this is a very good thing.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 11:51 AM |
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
93L is looking very impressive on the IR this am.... if recon goes in today its possible they may find something later this afternoon... 93L may not develop today but looking at it at the moment it sure gives every indication its probably going to develop, sooner rather than later...
92L has lost its convection overnight after an early evening flare up..... lets see if it can make a comeback today ...
GOM this am is firing up some convection centered about 215 miles south of Pens ...... quickscat data (could only get the western side of the GOM) indicates some w and sw winds that could be feeding into the area of convection building up in the GOM... long range radar also hints of come rotation, but it being so far out its not conclusive...
perhaps a little home brew for us to watch for...
perhaps not...
its only a matter of time before something busts loose....
and my give a damn is NOT busted.... :
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 12:20 PM |
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
The TPC Discussion gives it little weight this morning though...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 58W/59W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 20 KT.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO 13N
BETWEEN 56W AND 59W...AND FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ACTIVITY WHICH HAS WEAKENED IS
FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY
ORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON IF NECESSARY.
I thought it looked a little better then advertised above and it looks like the shear could be lessoning in the Caribbean in the next day or so, based on some of the Shear Maps I have seen this morning. Maybe one of you more educated guys or gals could comment on the shear because I by no means am an expert. The environment does not look ideal, but I think the Recon will go unless 93L just dies this morning.
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 03:01 PM |
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
92L is so shot that the NHC moved Floater1 to 93L. I think I got that right. Floater2 was moved to former Franklin.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 03:08 PM |
|
|
NHC FLOATERS
|
I dont think that is former Franklin
I think it is the wave at 30/40
Well I guess it is not a wave....
but anyway it is not Franklin
definitely not a tropical wave... it's a deep upper low with a surface reflection. may be going a little bit hybrid... -HF
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 03:12 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Franklin Reintensifies, 92L Bears Watching
|
I guess it is not looking that good as the Recon has been canceled. Oh well....we shall wait and see what happens...
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 04:15 PM |
|
|
|
92L, 93L linger
|
ideas a lot of us had here since mid-week have failed to verify. the kind of presentation waves were giving last week, any time during the last month would have implied an imminent system. there's more shear in the basin now, however.. and with soi negative (not in a quick pulse, just sort of stuck there) the basin may stay slow for the near future. there isn't a golden lining to that trend, however.. this is probably the leading downturn effect of an mjo pulse that will get across to cause trouble in a few days to a couple weeks.
92L is being discredited in the recent TWO, but the trailing part of the wave (which has been ne of the focal area we've had for days) is now north of puerto rico and still has an upper anticyclone and surface trough associated. conditions aren't ideal, but this could still continue to fester. globals showing it not moving much for the early part of the week, then taking off ne out to sea. some models still showing westward movement but little development.
93L isn't showing well on the models at all but still looks to have a surface low... though disorganized and moving west at a decent clip. recon was skipped today (there will be sfc obs from the islands) but still pending for tomorrow. the eastern caribbean is usually not storm-friendly.. but there is an upper high over this system and if it slows down it has every chance to develop.
weak surface trough in the ne gulf too close to land to do much. some models still show a low riding out off the nc coast ahead of a shortwave... dubious nature and not a land threat should something tropical try to assemble.
the non-tropical low near 30/45 has a convective ball near its center and may be trying to hybridize... that'll happen if the convection lingers. this cut-off has already dived to its lowest latitude and is starting to rise north into the atlantic... slowly. the ssts are marginal and will get cooler.. so if something came out of this it would probably be labeled 'subtropical'.
african waves depressed in latitude and not perky. gfs shows the region reactivating after the coming week. will see.
HF 1614z31july
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 05:25 PM |
|
|
Re: 92L, 93L linger
|
93L might get it together.
In Trinidad:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TTCP.html
We almost have W wind:
Conditions at Jul 31, 2005 - 11:00 AM EDTJul 31, 2005 - 10:00 AM CDTJul 31, 2005 - 09:00 AM MDTJul 31, 2005 - 08:00 AM PDTJul 31, 2005 - 07:00 AM ADTJul 31, 2005 - 06:00 AM HDT
2005.07.31 1500 UTC
Wind from the SSW (210 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 KT)
Grenada has West wind:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TGPY.html
Wind from the W (280 degrees) at 5 MPH (4 KT)
In Antigua we have a East Wind:
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TAPA.html
Wind from the E (090 degrees) at 15 MPH (13 KT)
I'd say something could spin up between the two Islands.
HF your thought.
:?:
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 05:28 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 92L, 93L linger
|
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Sure looks like it from Space.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 05:35 PM |
|
Re: 92L, 93L linger
|
Well island reports dont necessarily show if there is a true west wind unless more then 1 shows it. Beach you are correct though cause there are 3 islands showing more then 1 hour of a W or SSW wind. 92l had a west wind in the islands also but only for a hour then switched direction,..small vortex or just wind coming in the channel from the sea or near a mountain pass redirecting the wind. That happens alot near reported areas.
Again though now with 93L more then 1 island is showing a W or SSW wind for more then a hour or 2. Visible imagery also show a broad circulation but hard to pinpoint how much of a west wind there is. Anyways recon (disapointedly) didnt go out probably cause there was no pressure falls late last night into the morning. Infact pressures went up ( like they do at sunrise). If there is a circulation ,,its fluctuating between 1011-1012. I would suggest the low is just NE of Grenada moving W or WNW near 290dg. Upper level winds are quite favorible for development but it doesnt have model support. Its pretty much a wait and see event. Should continue its path for the next 2 days.
92L is right on path, just never developed due to shear. Should cross florida on Tuesday as expected.
scottsvb
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 05:43 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 92L, 93L linger
|
Thanks Scott for your thoughts on my question
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 08:20 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 92L, 93L linger
|
slightly different take on 93L. visibles and sfc obs have me thinking the center of the broad low is a little south of barbados. thats a little south of where most of the convection has been going off. a lot of that has blown off to the w and nw... a low level gyre is visible now that they're sliding away. the end effect isn't much different than what scott was alluding to, though. there does seem to be a low there, but it's weak.
92L's emphasis has shifted to what was the northeastern part of the disturbance... the convective blow up which has consistently been stuck behind and poleward of where the low had been trying to form. now it's the only game in town as the part over the islands has pretty much quit. ridging is still trying to nudge in over this thing.. the upper low to the west is slowly sliding wsw... and if the trough associated with it starts to pinch off it should become more of an aid than an impediment. not sure if there's enough mid-level ridge to keep it moving west... lot of the models are turning it up as a shortwave is forecast to dig in for a spell mid-week off the east coast. really not sure.. it might keep trudging west, too. the upper air environment should slowly improve.. eventually. we've been expecting that for days, but that upper low has been persistent.
the gulf and central atlantic features don't seem to be doing much. disturbed weather keeps persisting near the nc coast, but that's up and out if it ever closes off.. and wouldn't be very substantial.
HF 2020z31july
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 08:26 PM |
|
|
|
Pressure Falling
|
In Trinidad:
Latest 2 PM (18) Jul 31 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) NW 6
Grenada:
Latest 2 PM (18) Jul 31 82 (28) 78 (26) 29.88 (1012) N 5
1 PM (17) Jul 31 78 (26) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) W 8
Saint Lucia :
Latest 2 PM (18) Jul 31 77 (25) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) SSW 12 light rain
Just a Point:
These two Islands are close:Saint Lucia & Vigie, Saint Lucia
One has wind out of the Wind from the SSW (200 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT
and one Wind from the NE (040 degrees) at 13 MPH (11 KT)
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 08:37 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Pressure Falling
|
The trade winds, run from 15 to 25 mph in the afternoon on the windward Islands, at this time I don't see anything that would call a a closed LLC....................
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 11:47 PM |
|
Re: Pressure Falling
|
Looks like we have a horse race between 92L 93L and 94L The winner gets a trip to Disney World (right?)
Oh well, here is hoping there are a lot of fish out there.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Jul 31 2005 11:58 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Pressure Falling
|
Looking at IR, 93L looks like its cloudtops are warming rapidly the last hour.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 01 2005 12:17 AM |
|
Re: Pressure Falling
|
yeah the convection is on the decrease but its overall cloud presentation and outflow pattern is pretty good looking at the latest sat pixs.., probably still needs at least a couple of days to get its act together as it moves across the Caribbean... probably not going to develop any time soon but if it keeps its presentatiion for a couple of days it should be in a better environment to develop...
| EMS |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 01 2005 12:42 AM |
|
Re: Pressure Falling
|
The convection is on the decrease but based on the latest IR loop, there appears to be a broad center of circulation at roughly 12.5 N, 66 W. Signs of a "turning" in the atmosphere is the most evident it ever has been with this wave. Interesting to see what happens overnight.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 01 2005 01:54 AM |
|
|
|
93L
|
93L looks severly anemic. Actually looked more intense at Daybreak this morning.
Looks like the East Caribbean Tropical Graveyard is back in play. That, and the effects of the TUTT Low just west of 93L.
Hank made a reference to the SOI being solidly negative. That should give us a break for a few days. Maybe more!
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 01 2005 03:12 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 93L
|
93L, though it is passing through the "graveyard" is starting to fire up some convection around the circulation center and looks like there is still some circulation evident. IMO we'll see a continued upswing in convection tonight and continued organization tomorrow.
TG
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 01 2005 04:48 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 93L
|
I like tracking numbers rather than names.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 01 2005 06:30 AM |
|
|
|
92, 93, and those wacky hybrids (94L)
|
I am noting a possible circulation around 23N 67W Not sure what's there. morning light will give a better picture... 92L is sputtering conversation on the northern section but still trying....
93L looks scattered but to be honest, I can't really find it on IR. So, nothing's going on there....
94L our Hybrid Theory, is firing up a little convection near the center of the circulation, with a HUGE envelope of winds around it. I looks like it could become something, but.... it seems to be drifting north, and probably won't have much time to go ST but it could happen
there is some convection around 15N 53W but nothing really promising yet... (though, with this season, every batch of thunderstorms seems to bear (bare?) watching....
What does it all mean? Well, nothing really seems to be heading our way, but there's still a couple of interesting spots that might suprise us...
-Mark
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 01 2005 08:37 AM |
|
Re: 93L
|
Very well then – goodbye and good luck.
Oh, and thanks for showing me something new.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 01 2005 09:56 AM |
|
|
|
August Already??
|
Hah! You went to sleep in July and slept until August. The first of August, that is.
edited at 1013Z
Small cyclonic circulation seen in the GOM. Near 25.3N/ 87.7W at 0945Z, and the 42001 buoy. At this time winds and pressures appear to be consistant with 24 hours ago. Very little change.
92L appears to be wrapping around a mid-upper level Low, NE of the Turks and Caicos. Moderately sized area of convection in East Quad at 0845Z.
93L-While I thought this Inves was beyond dead last night. First peeks this morning are showing it is still alive.
Circulation center should pass just north, if not over, the ABC Isles. In the next few hours. Convection had begun to look slightly impressive. But is now on a decline.
Back behind the main circulation of 93L is an area that fired up some rather intense lightning. At 0845Z this complex was located in the Eastern Caribbean, just west of Grenada.
I'll move 93L up one notch, but it still has a large area of wind shear ahead.
94L- or the system located well NE of the Virgin Isles and Lesser Antilles. Still appears to be cold-core. WIth the eastern semi-circle maintaining light to moderate convection.
Other areas of interest, to me, at this time.
A small area near 8.7N/ 48.7W, at 0845Z.
Small cyclonic circulation, and increasing intensity of the convection over the last 5 hours. This area is due south of 94L and separated by what appears to be another cloud of SAL dust.
System appears to have gained about 4 degrees of latitude in the last 24 hours.
Another cyclonic circulation is seen, near 7.4N/ 32.0W at 0845Z.
These are my observations, Not Official Statements. Please refer to Official NHC and NWS Products for your area.
| VolusiaMike |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 01 2005 11:47 AM |
|
|
Re: August Already??
|
Looks like the MM5 is trying to bring something up from the Caribean into the GOMEX later this week. Doesn't look like the wave that currently approaching the Islands...
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 01 2005 10:00 PM |
|
|
|
Re: August Already??
|
== New thread ==