MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 07:57 PM |
Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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Tropical Depression #9 has managed to hold together and is now Tropical storm Irene. The earliest I storm by 13 days. Irene is expected to stay away from land, and be a concern only to the fish and shipping interests.
It's still not holding together well, so I don't expect it to strengthen much, at least for a few days.
Harvey continues it's movement out to sea as well.
There is a flare up near the Bahamas, but the upper air patterns around it won't allow for development, so not much will happen with it.
Outside of the two storms being tracked, there isn't much going on, Thankfully.
Event Related Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Harvey
Animated Model Plot of Harvey
Model Plot of Harvey (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Irene
Animated Model Plot of Irene
Model Plot of Irene (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
| oil trader |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 08:00 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 08:40 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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IRENE not looking good, 5pm out
trying to hold together....
.....REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...21.1 N... 46.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 09:12 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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What would have to happen over time for the system over the Bahamas to transform into a tropical storm? I understand that there is shearing wind, and that the spin is in the upper levels of the atmosphere. However, the convection has been hanging in there and I did watch the spin moving up to the convection that was already in place. Finally how are the pressures in that area compared to the air pressures over Florida at this time. I noticed the NWS frontal lines but they do not extend to the Bahamas.
| mbrown |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 09:13 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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On current GOES Floater 2 visible image of irene there is a circulation southeast of center. Is this a low level circulation? Dual circulations? will one win out over the other?
| Hootowl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 09:47 PM |
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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Just wondering - heard TWC and the locals talking about the Bermuda High that funeled the storms to us last year may set up the same this year. I know that is not the only variable. Still learning - but I know that isn't the only thing that determines the canes directions. Question is - does that make a hugh difference? I'm also wondering about the stuff showing up in the bahamas...... I want to learn. Still new at this - but I've been a weather watcher since I was a kid.
Hoot
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 09:48 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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GFS is trying to take Irene on an anti-cyclonic loop in the atlantic. NOGAPS doesn't, but still sends it north. And GDFL is ripping it appart.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 10:13 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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After watching the Western Atlantic Water Vapor Loop, I see a distinct turning to the southeast of where the 5 pm adv position called it. Could it be possible that what I see is another LLC begining to form? If it is, it also appears to be moving slowly almost due west. Also the ULL near the Bahamas looks to be sliding under the cloud mass that has been off and on over the last couple of day's. Does anyone know if this system could transition down to the surface if the convection in the area continues to fire up?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 10:56 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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What you see to the SE of Irene is the old mid-level circulation. There is no surface reflection and, while a mid-level center can sometimes spin-up a new low-level feature, no indications of this occuring. The low-level center continues to be the feature identified by the NHC in the 5p advisory and is now seeing some convection fire near & over the center at this time. However, if the center were to reform further to the SE, it'd be a whole new ballgame with regards to this one, so we'll watch it...just be advised that it isn't likely at this time.
Wind shear is lessening over the storm, per UWisconsin satellite estimates, though overall is still marginal for development. The system should continue WNW for the next day or two before slowing and likely turning northward with time, with some slow strengthening possible.
Harvey is about to meet with its maker and start undergoing extratropical transition. It is the upper-low/shortwave trough just to the southwest of the storm that will provide the impetus for ET to occur, which it should complete in fairly short order. It'll be out of our hair in about a day, then head off towards Europe.
Conditions across the rest of the basin are gradually becoming more favorable for development. Weak ridging is present across much of the tropical Atlantic, with the trough along the west coast of Africa beginning to lift out. Irene's tango with the upper-low has kept the upper-low somewhat at bay; there are indications of the upper-level feature weakening as well. The TUTT cell pinwheeling through the Bahamas is beginning to lift NW, though the overall troughiness remains across the western Atlantic W of 65 W and into the Gulf of Mexico...don't see that part changing for awhile given the current synoptic regime. Things'll probably get kicking again in the next week or so...for now, time to enjoy a little respite.
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 11:02 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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This was discussed earlier in other threads. That is a mid level circulation to the SE. There was speculation on if that mid level came down to the surface if it would still be conidered Irene, or a new storm, that is if the LLC holds together with some convection and keeps on to the WNW. The mid level circulation seems to be mostly stationary at the moment. As of the last visibles I didn't see any low level with it, and we'll probably have to wait until the first visibles in the morning. I find it very interesting to watch these storms that can't quite get their act together.
Bill
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 11:11 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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Looks like there is a new burst of convection over the low level center now.
(I guess that this one-liner has relevance if it is in response to BillD)
ED
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 11:39 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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Irene Has reform her center a couple of time is it possible that it could reform to the south and travel on more of a southernly track and is there any forcast tracks for Irene past 5 days?
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Aug 07 2005 11:45 PM |
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Administrative Notes - Again
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Since we have a new thread, it is probably worthwhile to repeat a post from the previous thread.
"For some of our newer posters (and a few of our older ones):
It seems like every year I have to post something like this - and this year is no exception. From the Site Usage Rules:
"Low Content Posts: Please do not make single line posts containing no content (ie, "cool" "hello", "I agree", or something else completely void of meaning). Or general cheerleading, for example, if you think someone did a good job and have nothing else to add send them a PM, it works better for this. Otherwise posts like these just litter up the forums. Remember, CFHC is not a Chat Room - it is a Niche topic-oriented site, so please attempt to stay 'on topic' by placing your posts in the proper Forum."
The attempt here is to avoid the use of one-line posts. CFHC is not a Chat Room, it is a site for Forum-oriented dialogue, so please use it that way. Reviewing many of the posts over the past two days, most of the one-liners add nothing to the exchange of information. A lot of them ask questions that have already been answered elsewhere - sometimes more than once. Before you ask a question, take the time to review some of the other Forums - odds are that it already has been answered. Use the PM feature to thank someone for their input. Personal information does not belong on this site - it just clutters it. Keep in mind that there is another Forum for asking questions of a more general weather nature - please use it when appropriate. When you post a one-liner like "I think that its moving WSW" and you don't include anything else - like WHY you think this - its going to get deleted by the Moderators. Sometimes we let this stuff go, but when we start to receive a bunch of complaints from other site users - we attempt to resolve the problem. Please help us by following the site rules - it makes the job of site moderation a lot easier ... and it provides for a more enjoyable experience for all of the site users. Thanks for your help on this."
I was reminded by some of you that since the site has a direct link to the NHC (to the left, at the bottom), we tend to refrain from repeating the NHC bulletins - the site updates the NHC info as soon as it is received. Its okay to quote a section of it to illustrate the point that you are trying to convey.
ED
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 12:31 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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On this loop you can see the convection building on the NW side of the center and in addition, convection banding towards the center on the eastern side.... the mid level circulation that was off to the SE appears to be weaking or fading somewhat... its possible this next round of new convection could re-establish a new mid level center and perhaps it will be stacked closer to the LLC, it will never develop otherwise... just speculating on my part from what I can perceive off the IR sat loop.... still looks pretty disorganized but a little better than it was earlier today... it still looks to be moving off to the WNW... no change there
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-ir2-loop.html
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 12:35 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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Irene really looks to be getting her tropical "butt" kicked. She is fighting with some new convection on the NW side, I just don't know if it will be enough. Does anyone know when the shear is supposed to start subsiding ( I hope it doesn't though)?
Also, here is an interesting link to better understand how Low's and High's work with hurricanes.
http://www.meted.ucar.edu/hurrican/movncane/movncane.htm
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 12:37 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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Frank. I noticed that CIMSS was actually bumping Irene up a tenth of a point, with regard to the Dvorak Numbers.
I was surprised to see that. As Irene looks to take home the most sheared, and stiil alive Tropical System of 2005 award.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 12:46 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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that new convection on the NW is getting sheared as it develops... the dry air out in front of this thing is amazing ... check out the water vapor loop..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 12:50 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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Yeah Danny, go to this web page and run the loop on the thermal infrared sat pix on the right side of the page under the section titled "Select Images and Channels to view" pick channel 4... the fact that its still alive fighting all the shear and dry air is indeed pretty amazing....
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
| wulrich |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 01:09 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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Everybody keeps saying that she is getting her butt kicked, yet it is still ALIVE and kicking.
I've must have seen 30 times all ready where people think its going to just go away.
This puppy MUST mean business if she has been able to resist the amount of shear and dry air she's encountered over the past week.
She's got one helluva chance if she keeps up this momentum.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 01:14 AM |
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Irene and Shear
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It almost appears that the convection on the NE Quadrant is being sucked away by the ULL.
On another note. Strange... area of convection just NE of the Lesser Antilles...in an area of Dry Air?
Best seen on the RAMSDIS WV Loop.
http://www.cira.colostate.edu/ramm/rmsdsol/TROPICAL.html
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/16.jpg
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 01:15 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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That is why I said she is still fighting with some new convection. If you look at the Thermal Infrared loop that Frank just posted, you'll see why I am so pessimistic*. That's a lot of dry air ahead. IF she does make it through, than I am with Danny on the 2005 most sheared award.
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 02:53 AM |
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Re: Irene and Shear
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I'm really very sorry to interrupt but would somebody please have a look at 78W, 22N – along on the northern shore of Cuba – and tell me what that black spot is. And thanks!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 03:06 AM |
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Re: Irene and Shear
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Looks to me to be a dry area that is filling in with moisture that you see on the loop. Either that or an alien ship. Interesting on that loop is the ULL that is plagueing Irene is now pulling north. Let's see how she reacts.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 03:21 AM |
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Re: Irene and Shear
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That (the ULL pulling north) and the dry air mass are looking more and more favorable to Irene. In reference to the dry air mass, in addition to that convective cell firing up near the Lesser Antillies you can see another cell firing up in the middle of the dry air to the southwest of Irene (not associated with Irene). If convection's able to fire up in the middle of that dry air mass, maybe Irene will be less effected by it than we've been expecting it to be.
Only time will tell.
(Reference graphic: same as Spoken)
Re: Spoken's question and an addendum to Steve's answer:
On that graphic Colors (other than orange) is most mosture, white is mid moisture, dark grey is "least" moisture (of a non-dry airmass), black is borderline moist/dry, then it goes into oranges for dry air mass with the brightest ornage being the dryest. Take a look at the key at the bottom.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 05:40 AM |
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Re: Irene and Shear
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DING...DING...
Looks like round 10 for Irene. Some thunderstorms really going over the center now, but you can still see she's feeling shear. She's like Rocky in the later rounds though. The tenacity is admirable for a weak system.
I know what guidance and the experts say, but it's systems like this that I pay attention to 'til they are gone. Example, Andrew in '92 didn't even have the pressure of a thunderstorm while in similar predicaments. It followed a weakness to about 24 N, then got snagged by the ridge. We all thought it would spin down and go out to sea before that. Emily '93 was another surprise with less consequence. But it still effected the Outer Banks. So I'm afraid to speculate. Would rather just monitor it as it lives out it's life and hopefully dies out at sea.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 05:55 AM |
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march of the weaklings
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harvey is down to its last hours, heading out.
irene is persistently moving wnw. the convection has reflared since around midnight, but as the shear is only slowly abating i doubt it will do more than minimal strengthening until later in the week. the later model runs are taking the system a bit further west than the last official track... to bermuda or so. the only model keeping irene on a threat track is the canadian. don't see that going down.
three other areas i'd mention right now worth watching.
persistent convection near the bahamas continues. the low level convergence point from the last couple of days near 26/72 has had the upper low swing right over it.... probably disrupted whatever was going on there. there's a newer convergence max near southeast florida. since it was related, the low/mid layer low that was on the northern gulf coast is having some of its vorticity drawn up towards the mid atlantic. some of the models show a potential hybrid feature offshore there in a couple of days. the entire area has an overall low potential, though.
behind irene is a rather low amplitude wave that had early model support... none really now (except for fsu mm5). there is a low shear zone east of the islands.. it should be into that in a couple of days. no dice until then. low potential for now.
now for the oddball. yesterday i watched a weak low drift north out of the itcz convection southwest of irene. it has been moving more or less due north along 49w, and seems to have slowed near 15/49 as of now. convection is firing near the center. it's just far enough away from irene to not be entrained (unless irene starts to deepen) and may fester down there if it can keep firing convection. if it persists it may interact with irene or cause something similar to the fujiwhara effect. low potential here as well.
the basin is getting close to reactivation. over the next week or two i'd expect to see a general increase in the vigor of tropical waves and a decrease in shear deep in the basin. by late this month we may have one of those storm parades that get lots of attention (but often result in a bunch of recurvatures).
HF 0555z08august
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 07:36 AM |
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Re: march of the weaklings
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I keep pegging Irene as travelling closer to due west. and this time is no exception, Of course there's a nice little band of storms to the south of Irere this time, and the shear is still there, but perhaps it's starting to weaken just a hair. I'd be willing to say with the southern band of convection, we might be seeing a modest strengthening at 5am, and a WNW track (even if the last few hours have been more west).
quickscat has a couple of 45Kt uncontaminated winds. T numbers up to 2.0/2.0, So despite everything thrown at it so far. it's still fighting and still strengthening. As to where it goes... Well, The models as still pulling it poleward. So the fish spinner is looking more and more likely.
I don't see any other players currently (Harvey is heading out) The stuff in the bahamas... maybe. But I would want to see some presistant convection before I'd look at it seriously.
-Mark
| Susan in Jupiter, FL |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 10:09 AM |
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Irene Name
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I was just wondering, I thought if a hurricane name was used before, that the name is retired. We had Hurricane Irene in 1999, so why are they using the name Irene again?
Thanks.
a storm has to be very destructive to get it's name retired. irene '99 wasn't deemed destructive enough. -HF
| Major7 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 10:26 AM |
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Re: Irene Name
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They only get retired if they were responsible for a large amount of death and/or destruction.
(More information can be found at this NHC link:)
Tropical Cyclone Names
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 12:31 PM |
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Re: Irene Name
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Hey Hank, I was wondering if you could elaborate on what you mentioned about fujiwara, and its relevance to Irene. If something like that were to occur, how could/would that affect the immediate and long term tracks of either system? I couldn't figure out if you were just hinting at something happening, playing with an idea or what.
nah, that little feature puffed out last night. fujiwhara is the tendency of two lows to rotate around a common point between them... or at least bend their tracks in a likewise fashion. -HF
ok...thanks
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 01:00 PM |
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Re: Irene Name
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From the Wakefield VA (eastern VA) moring discussion...seems to hint at some development (tropical?) later this week:
AGN...SYSTEM OFF BAHAMAS NOT CURRENTLY RESOLVED WELL...AND COULD PLAY INTO
FCST.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 01:17 PM |
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Re: Irene Name
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It seems, to me anyway, that Irene is looking pretty much awful this a.m.
Also, the area over the Bahamas is catching my attention....
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 01:35 PM |
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Re: Irene Name
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Irene is still spinning her way across the Atlantic. Some flare ups have been occuring off and on in the last few hours, and she just doesn't want to die quite yet. Reminds me of Emily in terms of tenacity. Emily looked doomed at some points due to how far south she tracked, but she held it together longer than some expected.
The feature over the Bahamas has been hanging out for a few days, and to me has been looking a bit better on the sats. It's got quite a ways to go for anything to form, but worth keeping an eye on.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 01:45 PM |
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Re: Irene Downgrade?
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Irene's LLC is completely exposed and pulling W-NW away from the convection to the east. I'd expect, given the fact that she is primarily a low level swirl, that Irene will be downgraded to a depression by NHC at 11 am.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 02:07 PM |
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Re: Irene Downgrade?
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irene has to completely go away for it to be forgotten. noticed that the euro and gfs this morning have it missing the trough connection and heading into the western atlantic. sure enough bastardi thinks this is right and it's going to make it through. that's the thing with these storms that stay weak and keep working their way west.... they persist long enough and they'll end up finding a favorable environment. the shear pattern over irene has been slowly decreasing over the last few days and really shouldn't be enough to kill it. irene has to survive for a couple more days... then make it past the trough that is supposed to snag it near bermuda. i'm more doubtful than last night, but still think it's going to catch that trough in a couple of days, and then get left to meander in the central atlantic like franklin and harvey have recently.
harvey should be extratropical later today... possibly getting dropped by the westerlies and cut off west of the azores in a few days.
disturbance south of irene lost its convection overnight and is probably washed out. more convection/low level vorticity is working brewing up southwest of irene closer to the islands. enough of the models that were recurving irene were still showing wave energy getting west under the ridge... something brewed up down here could represent what the models were showing.
still a nagging home-brew option near the east coast, but the pattern is such that it would be a coast-runner out to sea now. joe b outlined his version of things in his TWO (mostly picking on the eta feature that's been shown working up the coastal plain during runs over the weekend).
wave behind irene not doing anything as of yet... mostly itcz confined and of low amplitude.
HF 1406z08august
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 02:36 PM |
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Re: Irene Downgrade?
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interesting irene analysis, hf...just read jb and checked the modeling...some model guidance is not responding to the weak upper trough in the central Atlantic and are keeping irene on a west-northwest track through Day 5...there is a chance irene may have been written off too quickly...while i still think the trof canl pick up irene and carry her to fish territory, there is still a chance, albeit slight, she can slip underneath the ridge and pose a threat to the EC and Bermuda down the road...jb thinks wednesday will be the "make or break" day for this...he is also concerned, as hf mentioned, about a little homebrew off the east coast, but this would be at best a 'coast skimmer'...
i would say it's prolly 50/50 that irene remains a TS at the 11:00, although ships keeps her intensity steady and increases it to 55 kts at 72 hours...
i'll go contrary to the nhc at this point (and hope that i'm wrong) and say irene DOES persist, perhaps even almost becoming an open wave, but maintains her westerly track for the next several days...this would indeed pose an ec threat next week...again, i hope i'm wrong...only time will tell...
as far as any other tropical activity, africa continues to produce a wave train, but they don't seem to be holding together as well at the moment, and they also are a bit further north; anything that does develop should simply spin the fish...
remember, we're already up to "I" and we haven't even hit the peak of the season yet...still plenty of time for tropical trouble to brew and we should really be grateful for a few more days of relative calm before the fit hits the shan...
BUCKLE UP
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 03:27 PM |
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Re: Irene Downgrade?
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Well,Irene is no longer a TS.If it can hold on to a TD this may help move it more west,and re-develop after it gets over warmer water and less shear.She looks really bad right now.But not writing her off yet.
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 04:25 PM |
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Re: Irene Downgrade?
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Na Na Na Na---NA NA NA NA--Hey hey, goodbye!! (Old song)
That is what Irene is telling us....she might hang on, but, I think not. The comments about Andrew elsewhere have caused me to consider it MIGHT come back.But...
I still say..never should have been upgraded to start with...how many 'better' systems have we seen that DID NOT get upgraded, at least until after the season, if at all?
A new record....maybe not.....how did this figure into the upgrade decision? Science now sees what is really there.... and we return to reality, re: Irene
(sorry to sound cynical- this is not new, news).
MM
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 04:39 PM |
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Re: Irene Downgrade?
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Still "plenty of time" is a bit of an understatement LIP, remember its only August 8th. We've waited many seasons in which we didn't have a storm until mid-August!! Lots ahead of us I'm afraid. TD #9, ghost of Irene, may do some more haunting before she is done. Latest visibles shows her heading on a due west course and she should vasilate between west and westnorthwest during the next 24 - 36 hours. Yes, I did see JBs video this morning, and I believe he is correct by and large, with his idea of the TD sliding underneath the trough. They are both relatively weak systems, and Harvey moved NE a little quicker than expected, which should weaken the troughs effect further. When (if) it gets beyond the trough things get interesting. There is an upper level trough that is moving through the Bahamas that may attempt to get down to the surface before running into the mid atlantic in a couple of days. Meanwhile, ridging should develop over Florida and shift northward up the peninsula as the ULL in the Bahamas moves NNW toward the mid atlantic. If TD #9 misses the connection with the trough tomorrow night/Wednesday, its possible that she could affect the southeast states over the weekend. Its possible - lots of uncertainty since she could get deflected to the north also with all the mid-atlantic confusion. Regardless of which scenario plays out, I think conditions will become more favorable for her to strengthen once she gets past the trough and beneath some ridging. Again, this seems to be whats on the table right now - everything could change this afternoon, so we'll see if she continues to stairstep to the north and out by Wednesday or slip under and make a beeline toward the west. Cheers!!
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 04:42 PM |
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Harvey&Irene
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it looks like Harvey is starting to turn again, could he turn back towards the US?
as for Irene, she looks sick but has the potential to become a TS again, i dont think she will be a hurricane ever, but my question for all of you is can TD Irene affect the East Coast?, or will she also turn out to sea?
thanks, Ryan
Harvey isn't coming back. He's a goner. We have no idea on Irene. Most guidance suggests recurvature or dissipation at this time. --Clark
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 05:00 PM |
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Irene
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If Irene can hold together for 2 more days or so,We could get somehing interesting.Looked into the history of Andrew,and that will really get you thinking about what Irene could POSSIBLE do.She seems to be taking a more westerly track if you follow the dots.Thunder storms have fired up again just to the east of the center.To early to write off this system yet.Here is Andrew's track http://www.hurricaneadvisories.com/andrew92.html
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 05:01 PM |
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Re: Irene Downgrade?
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MapMaster:
If by "better" systems you mean "better looking" systems, that's exactly why science is so much more important than simple appearances. To some extent, classification/non-classification of a system that far out is often a guessing game because of the lack of surface observations and/or flight recon and/or ship observations. However, relying on the "look" of a system is far more unscientific than relying on what NHC relied on to classify Irene: not merely the look, but also Dvorak, Quickscat, etc. As we see from time to time, systems may look very much like tropical cyclones, but recon flights or surface observations reveal they are not; and sometimes systems do not look like tropical cyclones, but recon flights or surface data (e.g., reports from ships or islands) reveal that they are.
Based on the objective data - again, e.g., Dvorak, Quickscat - it's hard to argue that this wasn't at some time at least a depression. And although deciding when/if to upgrade to Irene was a tough call, a good argument can be made that the NHC should've upgraded EARLIER, when Dvorak and Quickscat arguably supported the existence of a tropical storm.
You might have cause to argue against the NHC's classifications from time to time, but I don't think science is on your side in arguing that Irene was NEVER a tropical storm (or depression).
-Brad
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 07:11 PM |
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take a glance
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want to see something ridiculous? check the ghcc hi res shot zoomed way in near 16/62 (about 200 mi SE of puerto rico). that's a pretty tight little vortex for such a little puff of convection. wonder if the obs from the islands saw that thing last night? lots of shear ahead of it, so i wouldn't expect it to do anything.
HF 1909z08august
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 07:16 PM |
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Re: Irene
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There is NO comparison, really...Andrew did get to a point where is had a very high cp (1015 mb), BUT was able to maintain 45 mph winds due to the high surrounding pressures.
My comment about Andrew was just a nod to the idea that just because a storm is in an unfavorable environment, doesn't mean with time and distance it CAN'T overcome that.
With Irene---it's a real outside chance it'll even survive....there is NO Andrew potential seen here...the atmospheric conditions are way different.
MM
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 07:22 PM |
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Re: Irene Downgrade?
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Agreed it was, and is, a td...not agreed on TS...as you said, previously there were even higher quiksat indications...but objective dvorak #s never showed a tropical storm...if they did, I stand to be corrected.
My main point...WHEN they upgraded it, it was NOT a tropical storm...and hasn't been since. NHC made a judgement call...I just, in this case, disagree with them; usually, I agree, this is an unusual case. I think they got trigger happy.
MM
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 07:22 PM |
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Re: Irene Downgrade?
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Thanks for your well reasoned, and reasonable, response, however!
MM
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 07:24 PM |
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Re: Irene Downgrade?
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Oops, sorry ..I missed one thing...no, I did not mean 'better looking'..I meant better organized and more consistent (continuity) systems.
MM
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 07:26 PM |
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Re: Irene Downgrade?
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Convection quickly developing into Irene, we'll see if it lasts. HF, was just looking at that area near Puerto Rico.....impressive for such a small feature. Back to Work.
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 07:29 PM |
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Re: take a glance
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That is amazing! An Emily type of vortex (Emily from, hmm....1999?)..was a tiny little storm east of the islands that blew up...then down.
Lotsa shear, but, it is trying....which I admit I see Irene doing again, more convincingly.
Time and data...we shall see.
MM
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 07:31 PM |
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Re: Irene Downgrade?
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Actually, was just typing this before I read your second post:
I just looked at some of the early Dvorak numbers, and I think you are right about that. So this might have been a much closer call at all times than I assumed.
Interesting, if nothing else.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 07:41 PM |
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Re: Irene Downgrade?
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The convection is pulling in toward the east side of the depression again. Course the last several hours looks due westerly. Peeking at the water vapor, it looks like Irene will miss the weakness (trough) of Harvey and cruise more or less west or W-NW for the next two days. There is an upper level ridge building east of the big ULL north of the bahamas & I expect Irene to at some point get into a good environment to strengthen. The only limiting factor is dry air. Be real interesting to see where she goes after 60W - will the Atlantic Ridge fill in behind the ULL and leave Irene on the westerly course or will this weakness carry her north up the west side of Bermuda? So far the numerical models have been pretty useless with this storm.
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 07:56 PM |
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Re: Irene Downgrade?
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Maybe we are seeing cyclogenesis s of PR...lotta shear...but, very interesting.
MM
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 08:09 PM |
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Re: Irene Downgrade?
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You be better off to register, then just throwing ideas out, The models have been doing good job, just Irene has not . a weak storm will allways travel to the west 270 to 280 degrees. If Irene gets back up to 40 to 50 miles per hour feel she start turn northward of NW.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 08:12 PM |
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Re: Irene Downgrade?
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Harvey is starting to look like an extratropical system, and i expect it will be classified as so at 5pm; as for Irene, it may be reclassified a tropical storm on the next advisory
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 08:20 PM |
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Irene Possible Upgrade?
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It looks like Irene is heading west as it sparks back to life. It's almost totally due west.
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 08:31 PM |
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Re: Irene Possible Upgrade?
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Re: being almost due west
Don't forget: the official forecast only has it gaining .4 or .5 in latitude (I forgot which) the 1st 12 hours, so a few hours (or more) of nearly due west motion is not, standing alone, indicative of it being off the forecast track.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 08:32 PM |
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Re: Irene Possible Upgrade?
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Got a link to support that? I'd like to check it out, thanks!!!!
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 08:47 PM |
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Re: Irene Downgrade?
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I didn't (don't) see ANYTHING to suggest Irene would be upgraded...and it hasn't been.
And, adios to Harvey...definitely looks, and is, XT. Interesting little storm.
MM
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 08:59 PM |
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Re: Irene Downgrade?
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MM, my only qualm with your thinking is this: how do you account for the QuikSCAT passes that showed non-rain flagged 35 & 40kt winds within the circulation on multiple occasions? The apperance of the storm was very similar to that of Franklin and Harvey -- among many others in the past -- at times, storms that we know to have been of tropical storm force from recon observations. It certainly did not have the classic look of a lowly-sheared tropical storm, but it had the winds, convection, and circulation to support the TS intensity. There have been many studies done on sheared TCs that show them to be more resilient to shear than originally thought -- and as has borne out this season. Just because there isn't a CDO or persistent region of convection -- e.g. a better satellite apperance -- doesn't mean the winds aren't tropical-storm force. Remember -- the Dvorak technique can be as much as 20kt off in the long-term mean -- even higher in some isolated spots (source: discussions with forecasters from the NHC; NHC seasonal reports; storm discussions). QuikSCAT has some error inherent to the measurement system, but not that large.
Just my two cents.
| superfly |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 09:35 PM |
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Re: Irene Downgrade?
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The LLC seems a lot less defined in the last 2-3 hours and could be starting to become unwound. The center definitely looks open right now.
| disneyfanfl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 10:16 PM |
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strength versus track
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I forget where I heard it, it may have been from JB, but since this depression was starting to form I've heard that if it stayed weak it would move more to the west whereas quick development would make it easier for it to be caught up in the trough and move north. This seems to be JB's continuing thought process as well. Is Irene's weakening (assuming she doesn't fall apart entirely) sort of a bad thing in that respect? Is this still the case? I'd rather have a strong storm moving out to sea than a wave moving our direction that will hit favorable conditions as it goes. I'm hoping that it still ends up a fish spinner.
| Edubrasileiro |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 10:41 PM |
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South of Puerto Rico
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Is this not a clear closed surface circulation, with showers completely surrounding it?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.tjua.shtml
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 10:55 PM |
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Re: strength versus track
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Quote:
I forget where I heard it, it may have been from JB, but since this depression was starting to form I've heard that if it stayed weak it would move more to the west whereas quick development would make it easier for it to be caught up in the trough and move north. This seems to be JB's continuing thought process as well. Is Irene's weakening (assuming she doesn't fall apart entirely) sort of a bad thing in that respect? Is this still the case? I'd rather have a strong storm moving out to sea than a wave moving our direction that will hit favorable conditions as it goes. I'm hoping that it still ends up a fish spinner.
You're pretty much on track with your reasoning. Less developed storms are more shallow systems and thus they are steered more by the low level wind fields. In the tropics, these wins are easterly. As a system deepens, the upper level environment has a more profound effect. Most of our numerical models strongly weight the upper level features in determining track. The models don't usually do a good job with intensity, so if a storm weakens suddenly (or strenghtens) they take a bit of time to catch up. With Irene, along with Franklin and Harvey, because these systems were relatively weak and sheared, track forecasting is more difficult.
The NHC in the 5 PM discussion points out the problems with the long range guidance with a weak storm (Irene). I think JB probably thinks the storm will remain weak and not turn NW. We shall see.
AND THERE IS A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THIS TRACK NOW
SINCE SOME OF THE MODELS THAT WERE EASTERN OUTLIERS THIS MORNING...
SUCH AS THE UKMET AND NOGAPS... HAVE SHIFTED WESTWARD.
THEREFORE... MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SYSTEM
OF MODERATE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOWER/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE SLOW MOTION SHOWN AT THE END OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS INDICATIVE OF THE GREAT UNCERTAINTY LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHEN
THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS IS STILL QUITE SIGNIFICANT
| Rob1966 |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 11:41 PM |
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Re: strength versus track
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RJB-
Which "field" should I select to see the track you are referencing? Thanks
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 11:58 PM |
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Re: Irene Downgrade?
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Don't know if this is in the models or not but it looks like Irene is in for the same 'hammer milling' Franklin and Harvey received on their trip northeast along the coast. I'm not a machinist but one type of 'hammer mill' has a cross with pivoting hammers at the ends. Basically the stuff getting hammered passes underneath. In this case the hammers are a succession of fronts emerging from North America into the skies over the Atlantic while (ordinarily) pivoting more or less around the Arctic. The stuff getting hammered appears to include storms like Franklin and Harvey. The result of the hammering seems to be shear. Not sure how accurate that analogy really is but that's what the images have me imagining.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html
Incidentally today's images appear to include a portion of the satellite that took them – perhaps part of its dish or something. Maybe it turned to get a little better look at the space shuttle's reentry (which was rescheduled due to weather).
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 08 2005 11:58 PM |
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Re: Irene Possible Upgrade?
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The support for that statement was the sat imagery showing the LLC moving due west.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 12:03 AM |
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Re: Irene Possible Upgrade?
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Looking at the visible it look almost a little south of west now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 12:30 AM |
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Re: South of Puerto Rico
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Edubra:
Scroll back to some of the posts earlier today; HF and others discussed that interesting little feature. The NHC mentioned it in the 805 tropical discussion:
AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SHIP
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOW CYCLONIC TURNING. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NEAR PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-18N BETWEEN
65W-67W...AND IS OVER VENEZUELA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 62W-64W.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 12:45 AM |
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Re: strength versus track
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Quote:
RJB-
Which "field" should I select to see the track you are referencing? Thanks
Sorry for the delay. The home page has some model links at the bottom. Here is one.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_09.gif
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 01:01 AM |
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Re: South of Puerto Rico
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I noticed that feature earlier today appear to 'grab an arm' of a system moving NNE across Hispaniola. The feature now seems to be 'rising upwards' to perhaps meet with the rest of the 'donor system' somehow – though I'd imagine it's in for a surprise if it follows that 'train of systems' into the TUTT. But also the feature seems to have formed connections with a system moving east across northern South America. You can currently click on the fifth little green square from the left to omit the (black) 17:15 UTC image in the following sequence.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 02:48 AM |
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Re: Irene Possible Upgrade?
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lets say Irene does follow the NHC predicted path, Harvey and Franklin already had the turning factor by now, so what is Irene going to turn out to sea or stay on course and possibly affect the northeast or Canada?, im just wondering what poeple opinions on Irene for now, please lemme know
Ryan
PS-i hope the weather clears up for Discovery to land tomorrow
also, Jim Cantore just said at 10:45 Irene only a TD but the US isnt completely out of under the gun(if that made sense)..ill have to watch the the tropical update!
Stay Safe, Have Fun Doing It
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 02:49 AM |
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comments on the day
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two consecutive runs of euro are bringing irene across now. the model probably keeps it too weak in the near term though. fact stands though, most of the globals have shifted west. i'm not ready to buy into irene making it across... still think it goes out (and stalls) near bermuda. the setup is potentially there, however.
weak low in the ne caribbean from earlier is just that.. weak and helpless. nice comment MM relating it to emily 1999. it's a tight low-level swirl with no cdo.. maybe it's also a relative of td 4 from 2000? well, lots of shear ahead... no chance.
that weak low i was commenting on now se of irene... the other night i said it might do some fujiwhara thing.. well, the tracks were as such today. irene sort of pivoted around it.. probably a function of upper steering.. but still kind of cool. there's a wind surge, saharan air burst.. and oncoming wave which should crunch the little swirl near 17/50. wave axis has a broad turning near the itcz se of there. if there wasn't a ton of subsidence near the center we'd be talking about an up and coming invest. it may look more impressive as it works further west.. nothing doing right now. more waves marching off. none looking like slam-dunk developers... which in a way could work out for the worse. early developers usually recurve.. negative-phase mjo can activate them further west when it gets cranking, potentially.
home brew option still open, for probably the seventh or eighth day. if that mean trough position had been a couple hundred miles west we'd have seen something already. as is, still low potential for cyclogenesis along the southeast coast, but nothing too happening.
eastpac is trying to blow two systems right now... and has been showing active waves for about a week. the atlantic response should be days away now.
HF 0249z09august
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 02:59 AM |
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Re: comments on the day
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The ECMWF has Irene heading to the SC coast,, I agree not buying into that one yet .......One reason for that track to happen if Irene remains a TD or min TS...
Dave
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 03:25 AM |
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Re: comments on the day
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Shear is gradually improving across the basin as well. The upper-low that has been affecting Irene is about to get kicked out by the same system that grabbed Harvey; at the very least, it should kick it far enough north to keep it out of the tropical basin for awhile. The upper-low near the Bahamas is riding along the west side of a developing ridge across the western Atlantic, while the connected TUTT cell over the Yucutan shows signs of weakening and moving NW. Ridging has developed in the extreme southern Caribbean and out into the tropical Atlantic, with signs of this becoming more prevalent across the basin.
Models suggest a low might become cut-off over the central Atlantic near 35N/50W late in the week -- from the UKMET and GFS showing a midlatitude low diving south and cutting off to the NOGAPS showing Irene recurving and getting stuck -- which could help set up a pattern to allow a lot of the waves to recurve as they develop if it reaches far enough south, or could just set up a blocking pattern to allow for the pattern to maintain itself for a long period of time. They also suggest another trough might become established across the eastern part of the basin...with the pattern we're in now and potentially forecast to stay in looking a lot like early June did. We'll just have to see this weekend.
While Irene is pretty far north and still a bit more likely to get sent out to sea than turned back to the west, anything that gets going down the line is going to have a better shot at getting across. If nothing else, Irene & the waves down to the south should help moisten the central Atlantic a tad. Everything is moving into place for something to kick up in about a week, from the basin-wide conditions on down to the climatological and intraseasonal factors. GFS kicks up about three systems over the next 6 days in the EPac; there's some support for at least 1-2 storms in the other models as well. Give it a few more days and the Atlantic should follow suit, if not to an even greater degree given what we've seen this season.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 11:04 AM |
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Re: comments on the day
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Well, Irene is looking good on satellite this morning and wouldn't be surprised if she gets upgraded today. Tropical models have shifted west further. Let's see what the setup will be 4 days out on the eastern seaboard before saying whether it will afffect any land areas, but its becoming increasingly possible. Off to work. Cheers!!
| zacros |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 11:08 AM |
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Re: comments on the day
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I agree. The IR and the first visuals from this morning definately indicate the storm is strengthening. It almost appears that the center is no longer exposed, but is located underneath the main area of convection.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 11:16 AM |
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Re: comments on the day
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Good morning all! Irene looks a little more impressive this morning with a new flair up near the center of the storm. Now that the storm has a less amount of shear and perhaps and little more oceanic heat to work with, does this explain the new round of convection? Also as an untrained eye the convection seems to be close enough to the center that the center is not detectable on Sat pictures. Models also now beginning to bring this system closer to the US east coast. Should people along the east coast from say SC to New England pay more attention to this system or is it still just a Bermuda event?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 11:43 AM |
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Re: comments on the day
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The ITCZ is looking more pumped up this morning. From within Africa to out in the Atlantic convection has been picking up. Is it a sign to come? Most likely as we are approaching the heart of the season and the MJO should be favorable pretty soon. It won't be long till we will be tracking many names. Everybody should be prepared this season. It's going to be a wild one.
| zacros |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 12:21 PM |
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Re: comments on the day
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This may be a little off topic, but the shuttle just landed flawlessly in California. To keep it on topic, I will mention that it landed in CA because of all of the unsettled weather around Florida, especially off of the East Coast. I'm on vacation (hanging around the house) and dying to go fishing with the family, but the unsettled weather is keeping us in port. Looks like decent surf will be in our future, especially if Irene can build. Let's just hope it actually curves.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 12:41 PM |
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Re: comments on the day
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I too have noticed the westward shift of the numerical models on Irene. The BAM series now take the storm toward the east coast of Florida while the global models turn her NW toward Bermuda. What's interesting though, is that both the UKMET and NOGAPS stall the storm near Bermuda and then move her due west toward the Carolinas on the last day of their run - with both models showing a building ridge north of storm that turns her west. In addition, GFS, GFDL, and the CMC never intialize a storm & pretty much keep it an open wave. Lot's of uncertainty still in the final track and intensity. I'm not ready to write her off yet as a fish-spinner.
http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=9&Year=2005
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 12:51 PM |
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Re: comments on the day
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Assuming Irene will remain a TS (out 72 hours) I wonder if the BAM models would be accurate for tropical storms.
I still see this storm heading west-but I really haven;t seen much success with BAMS solutions this season.
| susieq |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 01:14 PM |
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Re: comments on the day
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Is there any chance this Irene could make it into the Gulf?
about the same as the chance eminem will win at the country music awards. -HF
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 01:27 PM |
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Re: comments on the day
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The rule of thumb is be aware, until the storm has dissapated, gone past your lattitude/longitude/ or has made landfall far enough away that all you will get is rain. No one can say what a storm will do out at 53.6W except educated guesses. It is too far away to bother anyone. on the US mainland.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 01:41 PM |
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activation
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irene is plodding west this morning under a progressively weaker shear pattern. franklin did the disco this morning and he's always conservative, but irene should be upgraded later today. i'm kind of scracthing my head on the forecast track as it takes irene right through the center of a 500mb ridge axis. the globals that don't kill irene are stalling the center near bermuda then drifting it west in 4-5 days. notable that gfs builds a longwave ridge near the east coast going into next week... if irene is still under that it'll be paying a visit. i'm going to hold off on calling for recurvature anymore until i see the storm get through that first ridge... the track through it looks spurious... and the shortwave being progged to get irene isn't very substantial and isn't going to dig.
other features to eyeball... wave nearing 50w has all of its convection away from the axis. weak swirl trailing irene is becoming indistinct. weak low in the ne caribbean now south of d.r., under about 20kt of shear. signature is still apparent, but the shear should kill it today. two itcz clusters (one near 35-40w, another near 20w).. gfs likes neither, fsu mm5 likes both. convection is still largely inhibited in the eastern atlantic. home brew chances still very low as the weak low remains parked near the ga/al border with a trough axis dangling into the gulf... little convergence off the east coast. the shortwave moving by may trigger something, but it would be a coast-runner.
news on the pattern evolution is... upper trough in the western caribbean appears to be finally weakening, and the western part of the basin is becoming more favorable for development. the westpac is still active and after rising to near neutral soi took another plunge... maybe a last gasp before mjo negative anomalies shift east at last. the eastpac has activated as evidenced by the depression nrl is tracking well southwest of the baja. timer usually works that the atlantic will respond in 6-10 days... august 15-20 timeframe in this case.
HF 1341z09august
| Reaper |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 01:42 PM |
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Re: comments on the day
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LOL...The direction Country music has been headed lately, I would discount that possiblilty so easily...
On subject....Is that area of convection around 10N-50W part of the same wave as IRENE???
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 01:49 PM |
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Re: comments on the day
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Interesting that the BAMM model RUN AT 8am, has it heading west and a little north of west heading close to the N Bahamas in 72 hours. What I`m wondering does it have chance and if no, what is going to pick it up and throw it out to the fish......Weatherchef......... web page
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 02:08 PM |
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Re: comments on the day
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Still don't think IRENE is much of a threat to the U.S. but certainly the storm has stayed together well enought to reform and strengthen.
The more West it comes, the more attention IRENE will get.
Not time to run to the Home Depot just yet however.
| abyrd |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 02:11 PM |
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Re: comments on the day
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Quote:
I'm on vacation (hanging around the house) and dying to go fishing with the family, but the unsettled weather is keeping us in port. Looks like decent surf will be in our future, especially if Irene can build. Let's just hope it actually curves.
No need to stay in port. Seas 2-3. Easy fishing weather.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 02:25 PM |
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Re: comments on the day
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I am more concerned today than yesterday about Irene.She looks much better,and if you follow the dots she is moving west.I have to bring up Andrew again,as far as the track goes.If it is to stay on the forcast track she will have to turn more north sometime tonight.There is no way I am taking my eye off this one.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 02:36 PM |
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Re: comments on the day
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Good Morning all....i was wondering about the wave in the Carribean, has anyone put their thoughts on that yet and if so where can i find that...thanks,becky
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 02:41 PM |
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Re: comments on the day
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anyone have that bam model link?
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 02:43 PM |
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Re: comments on the day
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Definitely better organized with convection over center and some slight banding features appearing. Still looks a little asymmetrical and the center looks to be on the west side of the CDO. Probably upgraded to a weak tropical storm today. I don't see any rapid deepening since there is still light northerly shear and a relatively dry atmosphere. Plenty warm SSTs though. On the track, if she gets stronger, than it'll probably follow the globals (UKMET & NOGAPS) which initialized her as a storm today. If she stays a weak TS, then the BAM solutions may be a better track. While she has been weak the last 2 days, the BAM models have outperformed the globals.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 02:45 PM |
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Re: comments on the day
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Quote:
anyone have that bam model link?
on the bottom of the CFHC homepage but here is the lastest run:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_09.gif
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 02:53 PM |
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Re: comments on the day
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11:00 discussion...turn to west.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/082051.shtml
please do not post the discussions (in full) in the threads...if you wish to highlight certain portions of the discussion for emphasis, that is fine. Thanks!
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 03:14 PM |
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The Facts on Irene *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 03:18 PM |
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Re: comments on the day
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Quote:
I am more concerned today than yesterday about Irene.She looks much better,and if you follow the dots she is moving west.I have to bring up Andrew again,as far as the track goes.If it is to stay on the forcast track she will have to turn more north sometime tonight.There is no way I am taking my eye off this one.
Ftlaudbob, the scenario is trending toward the US east coast. It's still too far out to call, and this storm has proved unpredictable, but the global patterns are migrating toward a large ridge settng up over the eastern coast this weekend into early next week. If it verifies, it will force the storm west at some point (or continue it west). I noticed the BAM models show this in their latest runs. This is a somewhat similar pattern to what happened with Andrew, but let's not alarm anyone yet. This is a weak storm and NHC is not predicting more than TS status. From HPC this am on the building ridge:
THERE IS REASONABLE SUPPORT FROM THE D+8 MEAN FOR A MORE
PERSISTENT H5 RIDGE OVER THE E COAST THAN THE PREVIOUSLY PREFERRED
00Z GFS. THE 00Z NCEP ENS MEAN HAD SUPPORTED MORE RIDGING OVER
THE E COAST...AND NOW THE 06Z GFS AND DGEX ARE EVEN MORE
PRONOUNCED WITH THEIR RIDGING ON DAYS 6/MON AND 7/TUES THAN THE
00Z GFS. WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE IN THE E...A LESS PROGRESSIVE
H5 TROF IS PREFERRED IN THE NWRN/N CNTRL CONUS THE SECOND HALF OF
THE PD COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS.
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 03:21 PM |
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Re: comments on the day
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I guess we`ll have to wait and see what old Irene is going to do. Whats going on in front of her that would turn her more N.W. and then N. and keep her away from the East Coast ??.....Time will tell.......I hope she turns and sleeps with the fish.....Weatherchef........ web page
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 03:21 PM |
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HPC instead of NHC issuing advisories on Irene
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I noticed that the hydrometeorological (sp?) prediction center, not the NHC, issued the 11 am advisories and is scheduled to issue the 5 pm. I've never seen that with a depression at sea, and it seems particularly odd for a depression that still has the potential to head in the general direction of the Bahamas or U.S. over the next week. I've only seen the HPC issue advisories once a storm/depression has been inland for a time.
Is this standard practice? Or is there something about Irene, its weak state, its forecast track, or something else that made her a candidate for this?
Maybe I am just an idiot (well, I know the answer to that one) who hasn't noticed that this is done all the time.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 03:23 PM |
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Re: The Facts on Irene
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Anbody got any data on the track of storms that have hit the NE? My recollection is that they have come up the coast...see this link on LI hurricane history:
http://longisland.about.com/cs/weather/a/hurricane_past_2.htm
and not from this direction. Wouldn't recurving be a huge issue for this possible track?
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 03:24 PM |
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Re: HPC instead of NHC issuing advisories on Irene
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Almost forgot: if I'm not mistaken, the fact that the HPC is now issuing advisories means we don't get the graphics representations of the forecast track, among other things.
Will the NHC issue advisories again if this becomes a tropical storm again? This is so intriguing to me, particuarly because I can't find a reference to the "switchover." In the times I've seen this, I've seen one final advisory from the NHC saying something to the effect of, "Future advisories on Irene will be issued by the HPC."
OOPS--Just found this in the 5 am advisory:
THE NEXT ADVISORY ON IRENE WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NWS/HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER AT 11 AM AST.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 03:26 PM |
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Re: HPC instead of NHC issuing advisories on Irene
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i could see advisories being issued in Brrmuda..but where else?
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 03:28 PM |
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Re: comments on the day
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I am not worried yet,but I am really watching this one.If it makes it to about 67W,it could rapidly intenceify,there is little or no shear there and water temps are about 87 degrees.It is hard not to think of Andrew when looking at Irene.But it still is to early to know though.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 03:29 PM |
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Re: The Facts on Irene
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Quote:
Anbody got any data on the track of storms that have hit the NE? My recollection is that they have come up the coast...see this link on LI hurricane history:
http://longisland.about.com/cs/weather/a/hurricane_past_2.htm
and not from this direction. Wouldn't recurving be a huge issue for this possible track?
recurving would reallly affect the track Ed but i mean not all the storms affecting LI or the NE have traveled upt he coast.
Bob in Ft.Lauderdale..i dont think this will be another storm like andrew..i mean there is litle evidence of rapid intesification and littee possibility for a turn toward florida by now
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 03:39 PM |
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Re: The Facts on Irene
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"lit[tl]e possibility for a turn toward florida by now"
I don't know about that one. Yes, the odds are against it, but with a storm whose intensity is very much in the air and several of the tropical models now pointing towards Florida, I wouldn't bet too much against a weak storm making its way in the general direction of the Bahamas and Florida. (Of course, reaching either of them is an additional step away.)
Again, it's not the most likely scenario, but it's still days too early to discount the possibility.
(And technically, it wouldn't really be a "turn toward Florida," but rather a failure to turn away from Florida.)
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 03:49 PM |
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Re: The Facts on Irene
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I think the NHC or whoever is banking on the TD to stay east of any ridging that build near the east coast later this weekend, thereby nudging TD Irene to the NW and N. At least I hope so, 'cause if she stays south of 26/27N at 70W we could have a problem along the SE coast, particularly if the HPC is correct on building a ridge on the east coast. As I mentioned yesterday, I have preferred the BAM M since Irene's development due to its consistency, and I'm eyeing that model right now, though I think the shallower of the BAMs is the BAM D. The plot is definitely thickening though and we need to watch carefully as a turn out to sea is not a certainty. Cheers!!
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 04:41 PM |
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Irene...
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Looking at the Visible loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-vis-loop.html
I think that Irene will be a TS soon looking at the Sat. image.
Seems to have banding features and outflow.
Should be fun to watch.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 04:44 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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I find it interesting that everyday the thinking on what Irene might or might not do changes. Only certainty is there is a depression out there that needs to be watched. My question is if she did hit the East Coast how far down the road would that be?
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 04:49 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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anyone watch jbs update? pretty scary stuff.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 04:53 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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Please elaborate what JB's video has to say.
Thanks.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 04:54 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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My question is if she did hit the East Coast how far down the road would that be?
I would think early to mid next week, but I could be wrong at that.
For anyone who did not watch Joe Bastardi's video today, I highly recommend it. It is 13 minutes long, and he really lays down a distinct possibility (if only TWC's 'updates' were like this). The most recent satellite imagery shows a good looking storm, and I may be somewhat disappointed if it is not given ts status in a later advisory.
Here is the link to JB. Click on tropical update:
http://weather.yahoo.com/vidindex/index.html
EDIT: Guys... I posted the link.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 04:55 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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Quote:
anyone watch jbs update? pretty scary stuff.
send me the link for that please
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 04:58 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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So Lysis, after teasing us with mentioning JBs video, what was his basic take on Irene?
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 05:00 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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Who is JB and how do u see him Have wondered this for awhile and it also looks like irene should be a TS soon and has convection all around her and banding feature are loot better. Also nogaps it indicationg a North carolina Hurricane threat. The convection near the Cape Verdes is also worth watching now.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 05:09 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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His take on Irene was that the Carolina to NE need to stay tuned, but he did not discount the idea of Florida. What I see on the 12Z runs is that the GFS and NAM are pretty close in their solutions of sneaking Irene through a hole between a finger of a ridge from the Central Atlantic and a building ridge near the east coast at about hour 54 - 60. If that's going to happen Irene needs to get farther north during the next 2 days. In fact, this is so close that the GFS, if taken literally, has the high pressure center about 75 miles west of Irene (not too likely). The NAM has Irene slipping N and the high building to the SW of her. Very close call. IF Irene does not get as far north as the models show and gets under the building east coast ridge as SHOWN ON THE GFS, she will get blocked from moving northward as the high continues to build over the SE coast. I capped the GFS only because its what that model shows as far as ridging. The EC is near the east coast but further north and never touching land. That's JB and my own obs, Cheers!!
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 05:14 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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Thanks for your summary and having the perserverance to get through his update...I gave up after 11 mins.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 05:29 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Irene...
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What is the Eye like Feature in irene is that the low level center I know it cant be a eye though sence it is only a depression. Also when is Recon going to go out there?
It is just an artifact of the convective pattern...nothing to be worried about. Recon is not scheduled to go out to the storm until Friday at the earliest as of right now. With it being no immediate threat to land and the amount of money finite for an entire season's worth of flights, there's no pressing need to head into the storm. --Clark
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 05:30 PM |
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Re: HPC instead of NHC issuing advisories on Irene
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The HPC is the backup center for the NHC. If the NHC were for some reason unable to issue advisories on any given storm, the HPC would take over responsibility. From time to time, they will test the backup systems when there is a non-threatening storm out there, such as Irene is now, and that is likely what they have done this morning. NWS offices and all other branches of the government have a backup system in place....pretty smart if you ask me.
As for Irene...it's about where we thought it would be 5 days ago at this point, but the means to the end have been completely different. The intensity isn't there, the structure isn't there, and the steering flow pattern isn't there yet. There are signs the storm might turn back more towards the west with time...so we'll have to see how this one plays out. NHC track to 3 days and the overall intensity forecast look good; the 4 and 5 day track is probably a little too fast and too far north. A slow drift WNW-NW is more likely, IMO, at this point.
As for JB's update vs. TWC/others -- you'll never see any other media source go for anywhere near 13 minutes on a discussion. There's not that much to talk about out there, really. The potential is there for it to head back towards the west before curving up near the coast, while the potential is also there for it just to linger around the Atlantic for some time. No possibility can be discounted at this point. As myself and others have mentioned here, the factors and probabilities change all the time with these storms...but you can never discount anything until it happens.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 05:38 PM |
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Re: HPC instead of NHC issuing advisories on Irene
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Irene is a storm where yoiu have to "wait and see", as orf right now JB says anywhere from the carolinas northward should really watch Irene, but florida isnt out of the picture yet. The European models have Irene going into the carolinas i mean theres so many possibilities for her so all we can do is....
...
...
wait and see
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 05:47 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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I wouldnt worry about florida or the east coast till maybe tomorrow evening if she is still under 24N and 60W. I said here last week that with everyone and the models taking this out to sea near 50 W that it could stay weak and move more west then by mid-late week (this week) that we could find a strong system or hurricane just east of the bahamas near 70W. Well I think it will be now Friday but still we dont know if it will get under that ridge off the Se U.S. For now expect Irene to move wnw (possibly reorganizing her center with the midlevel low to her east) and taking a path towards the NW by Weds and heading towards bermuda.
I do agree with JB that she should become a storm again and if she does stay south and heads for the Bahama area then it will become a hurricane and strong 1 at that....For now, the option of heading towards the bermuda area is the best bet until later tomorrow we will see.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 05:52 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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unless the center is under the mid-level low, i see nothing more than a depression being sheared into a wave, similar to Erin in 2001
is there a reason btw that the HPC is issuing Irene advisories?
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 06:13 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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Rabbit:
Look back a few posts; Clark answered my similar question re: why the HPC instead of the NHC is issuing advisories.
Re: your comment about the LLC, I see 2 areas that might be it (one of them perhaps even a re-formation a bit NE from the earlier position?), but I wouldn't be surprised to learn I'm wrong; that it's a tropical storm; or that it's opening into a wave, as you suggested. Irene continues to be difficult to pin down.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 06:17 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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Quote:
Rabbit:
Look back a few posts; Clark answered my similar question re: why the HPC instead of the NHC is issuing advisories.
Re: your comment about the LLC, I see 2 areas that might be it (one of them perhaps even a re-formation a bit NE from the earlier position?), but I wouldn't be surprised to learn I'm wrong; that it's a tropical storm; or that it's opening into a wave, as you suggested. Irene continues to be difficult to pin down.
I Said 2 areas but u only told us one? So Where is the Other area?
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 06:20 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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I watched JB's video and usually do everyday. I think he does ok, but i think he is a little more extreme than need be. Maybe it's because they want ratings and or members (JB has a "pro" service you can purchase) i don't know. Most of the time i can understand what he is talking about but today he lost me....i think his segment was too long thats for sure. He uses all them graphs, charts, etc....i think it's a little too much, know what i mean? It's like this - you go to the track, you buy a program and place your bets based on the program and the current odds. They also sell a more comprehensive guide that will supposedly show you how to pick all the winners. Thats where JB comes in - he is the comprehensive guide filled with a bunch of fancy graphs and charts that you really don't need whereas the NHC and NWS are the basic, no BS guides. They give you the information you need to know and without all the poetry. Thats my take anyway......
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 06:25 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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It seems that "JB" is a Mister Joe Bastardi at Accuweather.com – who seems to be going through some sort of a midlife crisis at the moment. At least that was this viewer's impression. I gave up after two minutes. Actually it was the first time I can remember hearing a commercial meteorologist warning that a big storm was poised to do something "dangerous" and widely unexpected. Might that be an example of wishcasting? Anyway that's what I thought I heard him saying. Admittedly for one minute it seemed refreshing not to hear a professional reassuring me that everything is going to be beautiful in its own way.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 06:29 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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Looks that the LLC of Irene is just to the NE of the blob of convection on the south end of the storm. That would put it about 22N,54W. I don't think it's a wave - just the opposite. I think she is back to TS status with convection over the center and banding features starting to form. I wouldn't expect rapid intensification due to the light northerly shear and dry environment - but slow intensification from here on out. I thought earlier the storm would vanish when it's LLC was exposed w/o convection, but she's managed to pull it back over. Amazing, this storm will just not die.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 06:35 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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At times Jb gets 1 right. He will spot every area where there could be development and if he gets one to form there then its a 'told ya so'. I think hes just being himself. He gets excited about systems like many of us do. He wants to keep people interested on areas so they will get excited to see if they form or go in that direction. Some is entertainement but some is just speculation. Overall its ok to hear his thoughts. Like mine or anyone elses, dont take anything for granted even if we do get it right cause we could be wrong the next time around.
WIth Irene I said last week to watch east of the bahamas by mid-late week this time. I also said that was the outside chance. Now its almost a 40% chance of happening but I still think the better choice is to go towards Bermuda with the midlevel low taking over tonight. Time will tell ....
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 06:36 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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Noname:
Don't know if you were addressing me, but I suppose I meant to say I could see 2 areas that potentially were the LLC, but I would not be surprised if I were incorrect and neither was it (or even, as Rabbit suggested, that the LLC was falling apart).
Basically, in the earlier visible satellite images, I did not think it was possible to pick out the LLC, but there did appear to be - and continuity would suggest - some turning close to the main area of convection, just on the west side of it. But in the last hour or so before I typed that message, there appeared to be another area of turning (again, this is based on just a few frames from the vis satellite, so it could be artefact or the mlc or a short-lived vortice) a bit to the NE of the area which continuity (i.e., an almost due west motion from the 11am advisory) would have suggested.
Quite frankly, looking at the vis satellite images now, you could convince me that a different area, sort of in the middle of the two I was looking at before, is either the mlc or llc.
All that this might demonstrate is my lack of skill in finding it, but I suspect the center is not well-defined (although I'd be surprised if it's opening into a wave, given its tenacity before; the previously well-defined surface circulation; and what still appears to be well-defined turning, either at the mid-levels or lower levels) and that the only way to get a good estimate of its position right now would be Quickscat. Of course, until a plane or ship goes in there, that will still be just an estimate.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 06:36 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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The afternnon HPC take on Irene:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 06:37 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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Hmmmm.....looking at the lastest trends in models.....don't count her out yet as a fish spinner. It's going to get interesting in the nest 2days or so. Noticed the (left or west) bends in some models towards the west.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 06:38 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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Latest from HPC:
E COAST INTERESTS SHUD KEEP AN EYE ON T.D. IRENE IN THE ATL.
WHILE THE PREFERRED 06Z GFS DISSIPATES THE SYS BY THE MEDR
PD...THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND UKMET CARRY THE SYS ALONG THE SWRN
SIDE OF THE SUBTROP RIDGE IN THE MEDR...WITH THE 12Z NOGAPS
ALLOWING THE SYS TO APPROACH THE MID ATL COAST BY THE END OF ITS
RUN ON DAY 6/MON. NOON COORD LED TO A SLOW NWLY TRACK AROUND THE
SWRN EDGE OF THE RIDGE...BUT AS UNCERTAINTY IS GROWING IN THE
AMPLITUDE AND TIMING OF THE H5 PATTERN OVER WRN NA BY MID PD...IT
ALSO GROWS ON THE E COAST. SEE THE LATEST BULLETINS ON IRENE FOR
THE OFFICIAL THINKING ON ITS FORECAST TRACK.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 06:43 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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I am a total novice when it comes to weather lingo and i have to say that i couldn't understand a darn thing the HPC was saying. Whats the deal....where is this thing going???
Ok, now i get it....i didn't read that far. I was lost the first paragraph.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 06:44 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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New Tnumbers are still at 2.0 but I suspect on the next run it will be at T.S. Status because banding features are more evedent it is getting more symetrical and convection keep firing with the shear lessing it sould strengthen slightly for a while.
Also somethign I am wondering is how do u become a moderator and how many are there.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 06:48 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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At the bottom of this page is an area titled "extra information". In that section they list the moderators...there are 11 of them i think. As far as becoming one - have no clue.
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 06:57 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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irene has been moving west since last night. it is moving due west today. if ridge builds north, as expected. it will not be able to turn to the nw.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 07:08 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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That's where its dynamics count- if Irene can increase power to TS status then it can start on a NW turn eventually fulfilling the sloutions to some of the models- as UKMET.
If it continues acting 'shallow' and being confined to its size due to the 'FUTURE' ridge above it than it may indeed continue its merry way west. But nothing is set in stone.
Stay tuned.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 07:56 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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Irene is looking a bit better organized, though the strongest convection is still displaced to the south of the surface circulation. The storm is currently located in some weaker convection to the north of that region, though the storm looks a lot like it did when it was reorganizing a few days ago with new centers developing -- so it remains to be seen whether or not the storm is trying to reorganize closer to the deeper convection. Shear is weakening across the storm, though it is still there from the west, so slow strengthening is not out of the question.
As for down the line...mentioned my thoughts in an earlier post...but the NHC intensity forecast looks good on this end, maybe bump it up a little bit from 12hr on out to 120hr to account for the current organization trends of the storm. Track still looks good, with a bit further west and slower at 3-5 days my current thiking. It, like Franklin, will probably slow down quite a bit near Bermuda as a trough passes it by to the north. What will happen from there is anyone's guess. Best guess is still for it to ultimately recurve out to sea, but there is still the threat of it making it past the trough. We'll watch this one through the rest of the week, no matter what happens, and should know more by Thursday or Friday. Unfortunately, it is one of those watch-and-wait storms...both track and intensity-wise.
If it becomes a threat to the US, it is at least a week away, making any forecasts towards that end uncertain at best. Everyone should be watching this one in case trends towards the west with this storm continue...or if the opposite happens and the model guidance trends back to sea.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 07:56 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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I checked all weather sites i know and most are still saying that Irene may follow the periphery of the ridge and turn to the NW in the coming days....guess it's a waiting game.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 07:57 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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Ok, this is weird, I swear we're missing a page...LOL! Anyway, someone just posted about how some mets just say the basic info and not get into detail about other possibilities. Do you all remember Jeanne from last year. I watched the models all day and kept seeing them start to do the loop and head back to Florida. None of the mets ever mentioned it. When I mentioned to friends and family that Jeanne may be in fact a problem they thought I was nuts. Regretably I was right. It was bothersome how it was totally blown off even when the loop was mentioned in NHC discussions.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 07:59 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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dora 1964 look at the track and climatology. ???????
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:01 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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You have to remember that with these storms, the local meteorologists get their information from the computer models and the NHC -- just like the rest of us. Most of them, even in Florida, do not have specific experience tracking tropical cyclones. Thus, they are going to go with the information available to them more often than not, with a bit of their own experience & information added in for clarity.
Jeanne's track was a complicated one, as the model guidance was split for quite some time as to what the storm would do...if it even survived Hispaniola. The NHC showed the potential for this storm to slow down -- and ultimately loop, later on down the line -- and about that time, the local meteorologists started to pick up on that. It's all a gradual trend, however, in the interest of not alarming the public needlessly. Once the track was shown towards Florida after the loop, everyone was on board...and that, really, is about the time to be prepared for the storm.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:04 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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And to add to what Clark just said, do realize that by that time, those in the hurricane's path were well versed and weary of the season, and certianly took the storm in the proper light when they needed to do so. By that juncture in the "season from hell", so called, I don't think it was much of a suprise to the general public.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:06 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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Point well taken. I think the fact that it hit us so soon after Francis made some of the mets in the area even more worried about panic then usual.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:09 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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Ironic part is everyone in my area was so tired that very few evacuated. Yes, they did take precautions but most stayed and rode it out. We were very lucky that we in Melbourne didn't take as much of the storm as was predicted.
| wulrich |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:10 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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What happened to one of the pages? I guess things got a little to heated for people.
Irene defintely is a threat...the model trends continue to be the west, so we all have to keep our eyes and ears open to this puppy. She wouldn't have made it this long if she didn't want to stir up some sort of trouble.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:15 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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Quote:
Irene is looking a bit better organized, though the strongest convection is still displaced to the south of the surface circulation. .
Clark, do you think the center could be re-forming in that southward burst? In watching the IR radar loop, it sure seems as though the banding is centered there, and not to the north of the burst. I am suggesting this based on the IR loop -- if you believe that the low level circulation is still to the north within the system, is there some other tool I should be looking at in the future so as not to be confused between the cloud tops and where they seem to be centered, versus the low level circulation.
Thanks.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:20 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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Actually, I remember quite a lot of folks evacuating for Jeanne after having ridden out Frances.
I hadn't caught on the loop soon enough, so I finally caved in to my wife's pleas for board removal. 2 days afterwards, I put them back up again *sigh*
I'm in a much better house for riding out these storms now, but because I have children, if a Cat 3+ comes towards the Space Coast, I'm going to be boarding up and taking off.
I agree that most mets didn't mention the chance of Jeanne heading our way (much less making landfall within 17 miles of Frances' eye) because we had just seen Frances, and most of us were not mentally ready for another storm, even if we were physically prepared (my old next door neighbor still hadn't taken down most of his plywood by May when we finally moved
).Far too early to start preparing any specific location for Irene's arrival, simply because there's too much that could play out to make her nothing but a fish spinner. The next 3-4 days will do much to solidify her plans and there are many folks in Florida who, after last year, are already prepared for everything - we just need the go ahead to put up boards
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:22 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Risk's updated August forecast
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Using the trade wind speeds over the Carrabean and the Atlantic basin and the SST's in the entire basin as the two primary factors and based on the level of activity to date the Tropical Storm Risk ( the insurance industry's contractor for hurricane activity predictions) has now revised its forecast effective August 5 to: 22+ storms, 11+ hurricanes and 6+intense.
90% increase in probability of US Atlantic coast hit.
These numbers and increased risk factors are consistent with those of Dr. Gray and the NHC...
Looks like a long summer and fall.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:25 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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Interesting, the new 18Z BAM, NHCA98E, & LBAR runs all keep the storm more on a W-NW heading and then sharply break west during the latter time periods. These models must be picking up on the Atlantic Ridge building north of the storm. The ridge axis is progged to move north to central FL peninsula by thursday and JAX by sunday. The general troughiness that has persisted over the SE appears to be lifting north or northeast and being replaced by higher pressure.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_09.gif
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:27 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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Agreed! I have kids too so anything that has the potential to be cat 3 or higher and we're out of here. Honestly, tornados scare me more then the hurricanes. Speaking of that can someone explain why I heard last year that the Storms that come from the west coast of Florida produce more tornados then east coast landfalls??
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:27 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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Well, I for one don't want to go through that again! She is still a ways out there, and still not likely to visit us in Brevard Co. I'm watching the ULL that's heading to the east at about 32N. Looking at the WV loop, one would almost conclude that Irene would get swept out to sea by this feature. The only factor that would question that opinion is that its 10 degrees of latitude north, and a ridge could stay between the two keeping her on a westward course. Let's pull mfor the ULL to move SE!! Cheers!!
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:30 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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NWS Melbourne's only mention of Irene:
MARINE...NO HIGHLIGHTS. LIGHT SW/S FLOW LESS THAN 15 KT GRADUALLY
BECOMES SE BY LATE WEEK OR EARLY WEEKEND. SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS...WITH LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING EASTERLY SWELL FROM TC IRENE BY LATE WEEK. FOR NOW...HAVE INCREASED SEAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY...AND MAY NEED TO TREND HIGHER IN LATER FORECASTS DEPENDING ON EVOLUTION OF TC.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:32 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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emackl , I don't really understand how that could be true. Frances... an east coast storm, was one of the largest tornado producers on record. And trust me... you have much more to fear from a hurricane if you live in coastal Florida.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:36 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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My sense is based on a quick look at the sat.pics through 4:35 is that Irene is back to TS status. The big convection mass to the south seems to show signs of being incorporated into the circulation which show more of a S signature. Good outflow now on the north and increasing to the nw and west...some convection in the center...best it has looked since formation in my opinion. No opinion on where she's heading past tomorrow...but certainly is due west for now.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:37 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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Actually let me clarify. I'm afraid of the tornados produced by the hurricanes. Makes no difference if we live inland. Our house is very stable but throw a tornado on top of the hurricane, that scares me. About what I heard. I heard it after Charlie had all those tornados. One of the stations said that there are more if it's a west coast landfall. Not sure which station I heard it on.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:42 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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Anyone feel free to correct me, but I think that is an erroneous statement. It may be statistically true (or not), but I see no reason for the dynamics to be different so that there would be more tornadic activity with a west coast storm. The hurricane doesn't care where it landfalls. Look in the Hurricane ask/tell forum for a thread on hurricane-spawned tornadoes for a more detailed discussion. Perhaps you can ask the question there, and someone much wiser than I (which is like about 90% of the people here) will answer it.
To posts below:
Oh... I think you are talking about tornadoes that either coast recieves, and not what the storm produces (?). If you go to the thread in the ask tell forum, it explains the process of hurricane spawned tornados, and how they mostly form in the outer circulation and feeder bands. Perhaps that is what you are refering to. I think you guys should really take this line of thought there.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:46 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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I may be wrong but I always thought that we, on the east coast, got more tornados
out of the west coast landfalling canes when they were big enuff to be dragging
out over the atlantic during landfall etc.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:47 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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it looks to me, like the "center"is near 22-55 now...yes?
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:48 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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i agree tornadoes in my opinion are scarier than hurricanes. You only get if you are lucky a 10-20 minute warning for a tornado and 379 mph winds in a rare f5. And w/ hurricane's a 3 or 5 day warning. Uh yeah the only difference is the widespread impact of a hurricane versus localized horrific damage of a tornado.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:51 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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I would assume with the better presentation this afternoon, Irene should be back at TS status on next adv.
things look to be getting interesting in next day or two. The east coast of US is not out of the woods yet! From southern Florida to the Outer Banks (NC) need to keep an eye on Irene.
visible sat of IRENE
| VolusiaMike |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:55 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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The 5PM advisory isn't out yet that I can find.
Anybody seen it yet?
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:58 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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the 5pm adv is out at wunderground but the discussion is not yet
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200509.public.html
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:58 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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I heard that it depends on what side of the hurricane you are on as to tornadic activity. When Dennis passed us last month we had tornado warnings posted for Manatee County - we were on the northeast side of the storm - or the NE Quandrant. This is how TWC and local news explained it. It doesn't matter what coast you live on.......
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 08:59 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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es it's out
Irene becoming better organized...
at 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of tropical depression Irene was located near latitude 22.6 north...longitude 54.4 west or about 925 miles...1485 km...southeast of Bermuda.
The depression is moving toward the west at 9 mph ...15 km/hr...and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 09:01 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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5 pm disc
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200509.disc.html
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 09:02 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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Last tornado post I promise..LOL! For those interested I found this.
http://www.cimms.ou.edu/~schultz/papers/verboutetal05b.pdf
Haven't read it all. Way to long but still interesting.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 09:03 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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not liking that 5pm 5 day now
hope it all changes in the interim
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 09:06 PM |
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/ATL/09L.IRENE/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html
Looks like we have a player now.
|
MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 09:09 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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The ridging is interesting, looks like the weakened irene kept it from getting caught up too early. Chances are, though, that it will still recurve out to sea, but this makes it a little more interesting. I don't think it will affect Florida directly, I thankfully see too much keeping it away from there. Further north may happen, but still overall a recurve is the most likely situation now.
Persistance, as usual, will be the key.
.
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 09:14 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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East coast????.....Its going to be an interesting weekend.......Weatherchef..... web page ]
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 09:17 PM |
Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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Water off the coast of Hatteras is 84.7 about 8.5 degees above normal.
I guess we'll have a pretty good idea by friday. any further west of this track and im afraid the curve wont matter.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/ATL/09L.IRENE/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html
what do you guys think?
| wulrich |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 09:41 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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Well lookey dehhh...
All those nay sayers about a East Coast storm look to be wrong thus far.
Remember the phrase: Trend is our friend.
The models CONTINUE to trend to the south and west. Not only that, but, some of the models hint at the storm moving towards complete west and some SSW after day 4 or 5! This has to be given into consideration since half of the meteorologists out there have SWORE that this thing would have recurved by now.
I'm sorry, but the majority of the models for this storm have been useless.
Now that only one or two models actually have it recurving anymore, lets see how many mets say "its still going to curve out."
Should be interesting.
| StormTrooper |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 09:55 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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Up to this point all anyone could do was "go by the book". I remember watching Andrew. If my memory serves me right they called for an early turn out to sea.
Think of Irene as a runningback. Once she gets through the Linebacker (the trough) she's home free. God i miss football so bad.... anyway. once that High builds over the carolinas and Georgia this weekend , the book it out the window.
Nothing this season has been by the book! HURRY UP AND WAIT!!!
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:04 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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West African wave train heating up
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:06 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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I like how the title of this thread started with "No Threat to Land".. just makes you realize you can NEVER write a storm off
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:08 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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I don't know what models you are looking at but the ones i checked had only one, the BAMM model heading the storm in a west-southwest direction in a few days. The BAMM models are weird that way and i am not sure how, but they always end up different from the others. As for your comments about the mets.....they are going by info they get from other mets and the NHC......and until you can prove otherwise you should refrain from putting them down.
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:10 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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Quote:
Well lookey dehhh...
All those nay sayers about a East Coast storm look to be wrong thus far.
Remember the phrase: Trend is our friend.
The models CONTINUE to trend to the south and west. Not only that, but, some of the models hint at the storm moving towards complete west and some SSW after day 4 or 5! This has to be given into consideration since half of the meteorologists out there have SWORE that this thing would have recurved by now.
I'm sorry, but the majority of the models for this storm have been useless.
Now that only one or two models actually have it recurving anymore, lets see how many mets say "its still going to curve out."
Should be interesting.
I'd rather it not be interesting. I remember my trip to Homestead in 1992. Your comment about the models not catching this storm is what concerns me. I hope it misses the U.S. but the patterns indicate, IMHO, that this storm is destined to impact the East Coast somewhere. The last model runs show more and more of a W to WSW curve as the high intensifies. I guess we'll see if there's a recon set up in the next 72 hours to give us all a clue.....
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:12 PM |
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Re: Irene...
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Thanks for the link to the discussion found at:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
Granted, I'm with Damian (pronounced similar to dame-hune too perhaps?) on the weather lingo used therein. Also, is this Clark of the HPC/NCEP the same as our Clark of Tallahassee, FL?
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:12 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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I don't worry about those waves until they get closer to the Caribbean. Time and again they have shown some spunk at first and then three days later - gone with the wind. Like someone on here told me a few months ago....don't get too worried about these storms until your local news starts telling you so.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:13 PM |
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History of Andrew similar....(conditions)...
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"Andrew started modestly as a tropical wave that emerged from the west coast of Africa on August 14. The wave spawned a tropical depression on August 16 which became Tropical Storm Andrew the next day. Further development was slow, as the west-northwestward moving Andrew encountered an unfavorable upper-level trough. Indeed, the storm almost dissipated on August 20 due to vertical wind shear. By August 21, Andrew was midway between Bermuda and Puerto Rico and turning westward into a more favorable environment. Rapid strengthening occurred, with Andrew reaching hurricane strength (sustained winds greater than 73 mph) on the 22nd and Category Four status on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale on the 23rd. After briefly weakening over the Bahamas, Andrew reached Category Five status as it crossed south Florida on August 24. "
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:16 PM |
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if a storm reaches a 4 or a 5....look what happens inside of 'em
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As with all high intensity storms (categories four and five), the worst damage is thought to have occurred, not from straight line winds but from vortexes or embedded tornadoes. There were thousands of these vortexes in Andrew; many of them could be traced for several miles, as they usually destroyed every building in their paths.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:20 PM |
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Re: History of Andrew similar....(conditions)...
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You are right, Andrew was fierce and something i hope this state never has to endure again. However, i am with Clark on this - Although Irene may take a similiar path to Andrew, i do not believe that Irene will have the intensity Andrew did. The conditions now compared to those of 1992 are a lot different. We had four major storms strike last year...three right through the middle of the state, so pretty much everyone felt something. For you to keep talking about Andrew and Florida taking a hit is just ludicrous and i think you were warned earlier by a mod. Please stop talking like Florida will take an "Andrew" type hit from Irene.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:21 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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I notice with the latest model runs that the UKMET is the odd model out - seems to be an outlier in taking the storm to Bermuda (maybe the UKMET is just more at home there
). Anyway, I've been posting since this am about the BAM models shift to the west so perhaps the global models will swing that way. NOGAPS has shifted to the west so maybe we're seeing a trend. The globals such as CMC, GFS, & GFDL are behaving rather poorly since they didn't intialize a closed circulation today. I look at the water vapor, and frankly, I don't see anything like a trough to pull Irene northward. In fact, soon she'll be under an upper ridge and this ridge is forecast to build west and north. Looks like east coast of Florida is becoming increasing under the gun. Irene the evil sister of Frances and Jeanne??http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_09.gif
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:24 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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Ok, that link you posted has two Bam models bringing Irene towards the wsw......i put more stock in NOGAPS and the others than i do Bam. The other models on there bring it more to the west, but not close enough to Fla East Coast.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:24 PM |
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Re: History of Andrew similar....(conditions)...
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Andrew was also 5-6 degrees further south than Irene was at this point and under quite different environmental conditions. Point being, no two storms are alike. There have been many, many other weak storms that came through this particular region and dissipated or recurved...like Erin 2001.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:27 PM |
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Re: History of Andrew similar....(conditions)...
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Clark - Lets say these two guys are right and Irene takes the Bam med model run....looks as though it would go wsw......would it be likely for it to hook back around go northwest through the state or w through the keys? Seems to me if the storm takes that kind of path then i don't see how it could go wsw and then turn back around near H/DR, Cuba and head NW through Fla.......???
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:30 PM |
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don't mean to be an alarmist...if I am..sorry
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I am NOT predicting an Andrew hit...only the possiblity of one...if it is alarming to think about it...I'll also put something in there about the odds are infinitesimal for it to occur, which they are...however, I feel global warming and the fact we are in an increased period of activity all warrant looking carefully at these things...I would hate to make people fearful for no reason. I never said an Andrew storm was imminent..only that it is going through the same things Andrew did...but I am a complete novice....
Joe Bastardi was alarmed about it...and that's what I got it from. He noted the
possibilities...and if it makes you fearful, I am sorry...I didn't mean to throw unnecessary anxiety on anyone. I like exploring all the possibilities...but realize inside it could do a lot of things...ya know?
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:32 PM |
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Re: don't mean to be an alarmist...if I am..sorry
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well dude, you just put up the histroy of andrew, with NO forcasting info about irene. All it was was Andrew... if you don't mean to be an alarmist, don't post stuff like that. I thought we allready went over this.
EDIT: do note that JB also talked about many storms in tandem with Andrew in a similar bust a trof situation. These storms hit all up the eastern sea board… so it was more of a general parallel he was making.
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:33 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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Finished reading the 5PM Discussion from NHC and found it to be very interesting. Alot of words were thrown out like... METAMORPHOSIS, OCCASIONAL, DIFFERENCES... and my favorite which nobody can forget "ASSUME" !
In my opinion or should I say MY GUESSTIMATION im gonna wait couple of days because its still unpredictable, but it is interresting and entertaining.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:35 PM |
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Re: don't mean to be an alarmist...if I am..sorry
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I understand what you are saying and thanks for clarifying. As the disclaimer says on this site - always go with the word of the NHC and i do and they haven't really mentioned anything about Fla being under the gun. They keep mentioning Bermuda, in fact, Bermuda is on the strike possibility list. I do understand that things can change rather quickly overnight, so you are correct, there is a slight possibility that the storm could hit the east coast of fla.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:39 PM |
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i dont think
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i do not think Irene will be like Andrew at all, i dont think she wil have the strength nor the pressure or time to develope. Im seeing a Carolina's TS-Cat 2
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:41 PM |
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Re: i dont think
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Andrew went from tropical storm to hurricane category 4 in 24 hours
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:42 PM |
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Re: i dont think
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Ryan - Thanks for the extra assurance, but you cant really say where it's going to go without some hard proof - you dont want to excite/tick off the folks from Carolina. I see what you are saying and even JB said that the Carolinas could be where Irene goes, but at this point we have to wait and see.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:44 PM |
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Re: i dont think
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Thats correct Rick - Andrew intensified rather quickly and any storm, given the right ingredients, can do that. Warmer water, less shear, etc...could make a TS into a major storm in 24 hrs. Lets hope that does not happen here.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:47 PM |
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Re: i dont think
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Anyone remember Hurricane Lenny? That went from Tropical Depression to a hurricane in like a day. You can't ever tell with storms and their mechanics. They may just rapidly intensify like the dickens out of nowhere. You can never say never with a storm till its long gone.
lenny came up fast.. but the nhc dragged their feet on classifying it. -HF
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 10:54 PM |
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Re: i dont think
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true damian..i mean this is a "guess-timate" but i mean i see what people are saying now with andrew becuase Irene, like Andrew is now escaping the shear winds and enteringg even warmer water so i mean we could see rapid intensification..but as JB said, the Carolina's could be where Irene landfalls, but then again i think it was UKMET that has Irene turning out to sea and making a ladfall in Bermuda, i could be mistaken but i think she will most likely take a track relative to NOGAPS or MM5FSU.
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 11:00 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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Quote:Then how about the 'tawdry romance novel' model? Does it seem as if Irene feels in some way attracted to that little 'social climber' on the south shore of Hispaniola – apparently moving west and growing larger it seems?
I'm sorry, but the majority of the models for this storm have been useless.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
I noticed however that with Franklin and Harvey their 'errant behavior' seemed primarily due to getting hammered by moist air coming from North America. But such hammering didn't appear to have altered their NHC projected paths – beyond a few squiggles and delays.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/210042.shtml?5day
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 11:07 PM |
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Re: don't mean to be an alarmist...if I am..sorry
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Quote:
I understand what you are saying and thanks for clarifying. As the disclaimer says on this site - always go with the word of the NHC and i do and they haven't really mentioned anything about Fla being under the gun. They keep mentioning Bermuda, in fact, Bermuda is on the strike possibility list. I do understand that things can change rather quickly overnight, so you are correct, there is a slight possibility that the storm could hit the east coast of fla.
Actually, Bermuda is out of the gunsights according to the latest NHC 5 PM track. It appears the NHC now thinks it may go west of the island. The fun of this site is perhaps beating the NHC to the punch, looking at trends, and using some knowledge of weather to justify your position. Yes, the BAM models have notoriously been bad, but for this system they've actually been the best. Noboby is saying it will hit the EC of FL, but the possibility is alot more than it was just 24 hrs ago. The analogy of Andrew was brought up earlier today by another poster - but it was in respect to the track. I think most METs would agree that this storm is no Andrew but then again, could it become a hurricane and threaten the EC of FL or the US - sure. Heck, we Floridians need to accept the fact that hurricanes will become a part of our lives. Dr Gray has been warning about the increase in storms now for over 10 years. Forget global warming, we are in a warm phase of the AMO that will likely lead to an above average storm seasons for another 10-20 years. Just look to the 1930-40s in FL (another AMO warm phase), u can barely see the outline of the peninsula when the storm tracks are overlaid.
| oil trader |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Aug 09 2005 11:31 PM |
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Re: i dont think
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Maybe I am missing something. There is a track on a system called 89. Is it anything to worry about?
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_89.gif
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 01:20 AM |
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Re: i dont think
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From NHC TWD (8:05 PM EDT):
"EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 70W-74W. "
If they are doing model runs on it now, that means it must have enough signature to warrent tracking. Looking at the latest IR loop of the Atlantic it seems that the area around Hispanola has increased convection over the last day, and tightened up over the last couple hours. I wonder if there will be a watch on it in the TWO by midnight.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 03:25 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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Earlier today I could almost pick out 3 swirls within the convection. Looking at the satelitte page linked from the NHC it looks like those 3 have started to consoladate to 1, but is the low level center lined up with that swirl? Its hard to tell on the infrared pictures. I'm guessing no real strengthening can happen till they line up. Is that correct?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 04:36 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Irene Forms from TD#9, No Threat to Land
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thought i'd use the old header from a couple days ago when irene was supposed to have recurved already. thought i'd keep things fair and balanced after all, so ralphfl doesn't start calling me a wishcaster.
speaking of wishcasting... every time there's a weak storm moving north of the islands progged to come west the references to andrew start.. andrew did this, andrew did that.. a cat 5 analog is after all the best thing to use in every situation, as cat 5 hurricanes happen almost every week. really, i saw some smart person toss in dora of 1964... not bad. dora was already a great deal stronger, but the evolving pattern may be something of that ilk.
anywho, the status. irene is being sheared at different heights... northerly shear very high up, sw shear associated with the upper trough that missed it at the outflow levels. this pattern caused irene's brief improvement overnight to result in a decoupling today.. the mlc is still trailing the llc a tad at this hour. dry environment, persisting shear and stack problems (real disorganization in my book) are keeping it moving just south of west and not allowing it to strengthen. of course there are still models killing irene (gfdl and lots of the globals have been losing it for days).. but irene isn't going to die. the scenario that bastardi outlined is coming into play with the escape hatch being the reorganization of the ridge around fri-sat. if irene is far enough north at that time.. it'll do something like felix 1995 did. if irene isn't... it'll come west like a rocket next week and hit somebody like a ton of bricks around wed. irene has probably been at t.s. status all day (and yesterday... t-numbers are usually a little low on sheared systems with sporadic convection... the llc with irene has been solid). should get the official upgrade tomorrow and move west a little more quickly.. slow down around the weekend.. and either meander near bermuda next week or be accelerating and deepening under the ridge. potential impact is still tuesday, august 16th at earliest. it isn't certain by any means... but the configuration is there if the storm evolves correctly to verify what joe b has cooking up.
other areas... wave train is depressed, but an itcz focal area near 45w may activate as a tropical wave approaches. there's good low level convergence, a kick from a wave may start something. there's already a weak trough trailing se from irene leading up from there.. there's the potential pathway.
that little swirl i was eyeballing yesterday tracked south of puerto rico.. showed well on radar.. then there it was running south of hispaniola today. tomorrow morning it should be passing jamaica if it hasnt' become indistinct. hostile shear conditions present, but they are lessening. that little bugger had better be gone tomorrow.. it's like an baby evil clown or something. creepy.
still waiting on the home brew. not expecting. there's a couple of weak impulses moving up ahead of the shortwave near the mid atlantic (hopefully what will pull irene out of from the starting gate)... nothing doing. weak low still near the fl/ga/al confluence... keeping it moist over the southeast day after day.
t.s. fernanda in the eastpac has come up, so the atlantic should go active in a week or so. that relationship works often enough in this type of season. the ensemble means have ridging near the east coast for days... better hope the ridge is amplified rather than zonal to the east.. otherwise this is going to be a long month.
HF 0435z10august
| berrywr |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 10 2005 08:09 AM |
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No model is that accurate at Day 7 or 8!
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I beg to differ with you; no model can be expected to be that accurate let alone be within any kind of reasonable margin of error one week out. I grant you the GFS goes out 2 weeks, but no one even remotely looks at it beyond day 7 or day 8. There are too many variables that far out. You also have to remember, NWS doesn't sample the upper air until a storm is within a 96 to 120 hour window and there is next to nothing in the way of upper air data out there. The only tool forecasters have is satellite. It irritates me when I see this type of post. Forecasting has gotten really good over the past decade or so, but it's isn't an exact science. Please cut the people who forecast and the models that computers generate some slack; 7 days out?