(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 14 2005 12:44 AM

Re: TD 10 is now upon us

What is the chance that td 10 will survive the trough and hitting the east coast?

Storm Cooper

(User)

Sun Aug 14 2005 12:48 AM

Re: TD 10 is now upon us

Way too far out to guess about that right now. I would give it a 60/40 chance and I am sure some of our Mets will add their thoughts on this but we have a long way to go yet.

(Meteorologist)

Sun Aug 14 2005 12:50 AM

Re: TD 10 is now upon us

If it were to become a tropical storm, it'll get the name Jose. It, like many of the storms that came before it, would be the earliest 10th named storm in recorded history in the Atlantic basin. The previous record for the earliest 9th storm has yet to pass as well, continuing the rapid pace of storms that this season has been on since the beginning of June.

Today also marks the one year anniversary of Hurricane Charley making landfall in Southwest Florida. Charley is the second costliest hurricane on record in the United States (unadjusted figures), having resulted in over $15 billion dollars in damage. Hurricane Andrew of 1992 remains in the topspot at near $30 billion dollars. Charley's name was retired, and rightfully so considering the damage it caused. Next time around, it'll be Colin in it's place.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 14 2005 12:52 AM

Re: TD 10 and NONAME

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005 (edited~danielw)

CURRENTLY...THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH SOME CURVED BANDS AND OUTFLOW EXPANDING WESTWARD.
HOWEVER...THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT MAY NOT LAST FOR LONG. UNANIMOULSY...ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE DEVELOPING A RATHER STRONG AND UNUSUALLY DEEP UPPER-TROUGH BETWEEN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE DEPRESSION. THIS TROUGH WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE DEPRESSION
TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. SHIPS MODEL FORECAST A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION...AND THE GFDL THAT FOR THE PAST FEW RUNS MADE THIS DISTURBANCE A STRONG HURRICANE...NO LONGER STRENGTHENS THE CYCLONE.
DUE TO THE UPPER-TROUGH...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE WINDS ONLY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRENGTHENING AFTER 3 DAYS...WHEN THE UPPER-TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. ALL THIS IS VALID IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES THE NEXT TWO DAYS...

Bold emphasis added~danielw

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/132019.shtml

pcola

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 14 2005 12:57 AM

Re: TD 10 and NONAME

For what it is worth, I watched Joe Bastardi today and he says that TD10 is very likely to head towards the FL east coast....but based o h9is Dennis and Irene predictions...that may be a good thing

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Aug 14 2005 01:08 AM

Re: TD 10 and NONAME

Why do you listen to Joe Bastardi his track record been bad for the last few years, but guess, people like to hear the wild side and he good at that.

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 14 2005 01:12 AM

Re: TD 10 and NONAME

Let me be the first to say"No Way Jose". Central and South Florida will hopefully win the lottery on 0 direct hits from hurricanes this season. We are 0 out of 9 right now. We are having tremendous thunderstorms in the afternoons and they are exciting and wet enough to cool us. I have a question about an area of disturbed weather in the southern Caribbean tonight. If that should form into a storm, would it influence the direction of 10 (whatever by then) ?

Beaumont, TX

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 14 2005 01:12 AM

Re: TD 10 is now upon us

Is there something in the Caribbean that could form and move into the Gulf later next week? I am not talking about TD 10 but another system. I heard something about it on the news here. Any information on that?

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 14 2005 01:13 AM

Re: TD 10 and NONAME

I watched JB's video too and i was quite disturbed when he pretty much wishcast this thing into the Fla east coast. He was using one of his maps and going from current position to the 288 hour position, which he seems to think will be South Fla.

Beaumont, TX

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 14 2005 01:13 AM

Re: TD 10 and NONAME

You must be asking about the same system I am asking about. Anyone know anything about this one?

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 14 2005 01:17 AM

Caribbean Waves

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT AUG 13 2005 (edited~danielw)

E CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SOME CURVATURE IS SEEN IN THE LOW CLOUDS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-21N
BETWEEN 69W-73W.
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS S OF HISPANIOLA FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 67W-73W.

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WAVE IS ALONG 78W S OF 15N...S OF JAMAICA... MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN....PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 77W-84W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/140014.shtml?

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 14 2005 01:26 AM

Re: Caribbean Waves

TD 10 has been going due West for last 6 hours, still a TD, Irene allmost looks to be 350 Degrese lost some of her punch.

Dave

Frank P

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 14 2005 02:20 AM

Just love this sat loop

a picture tells a thousands words but I'll add just a few more...

the convection in the east/central caribbean is associated and interacting with the ULL just south of the tip of Fl digging down deep in the central caribbean...

convection with Irene if firing back up again... movement if any to the north as best as I can tell off this loop...

TD 10 does looks to be moving slowly to the west perhaps as the convection is getting blown off to the north

another little interesting cluster of storms SE of TD10... not sure what to make of it but at the moment it has as much convection as TD10.... things to watch but nothing of any concern... yet (a dial up connection might take some time to download this link.)

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 14 2005 02:31 AM

Re: Just love this sat loop

I see that cluster of storms SE of TD10, maybe it's little sister following Him, It should be interesting to see what NHC says at 11:00 PM on TD10 in there forcast track and Tropical Discussion on TD10.
Dave

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 14 2005 02:41 AM

Re:sat loop

IRENE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH A STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVING DEVELOPED OVER AND
SOUTH OF THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. A 13/2232Z SSMI OVERPASS DEPICTED A LARGE BUT CLOSED EYE FEATURE IN THE LOW-LEVELS...BUT THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS WERE STILL OPEN TO THE NORTH. THE LAST RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND DATA SUPPORTED 55-60 KT...SO WITH THE INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION SINCE THAT TIME...AN INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 60 KT SEEMS... ALTHOUGH IT COULD BE STRONGER.
IF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES...

LVG

(Registered User)

Sun Aug 14 2005 02:41 AM

Re: TD 10 is now upon us

Hey guys,
Judging by the western atlantic surface temp's and the high ridge, #10 worries me. Could it be another Isabele? What do you think about the business coming off of the Sahara right now??
LVG

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 14 2005 02:43 AM

Re: Just love this sat loop

11pm is out - it is still going NW and the track is still the same maybe a little more NW...

(caustic reference removed)

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 14 2005 02:45 AM

Re: Just love this sat loop

Interesting little flare up se of TD10.... i would watch the carribean a little more right now.... the mid-upper feature over the southern tip of florida or keys moving west in GOM. Which i think is about to setup a pattern, and allow for favorable developement closer than we think..... i think the high is about to kick in and look like last year....this year we have had few systems that get into it, and find the weakness and move bak out to see......but i think thats about to change.....seems like everything that goes north of the islands, will miss the east coast....but that not to say one system later on might make it and turn left..... if anything gets going within next week, i would suspect it will be in Carribean and southern GOM....things will get very interesting in western carribiean and GOM in next few days....well see if i am right....

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 14 2005 02:47 AM

Re: Just love this sat loop

Where are you getting your info? I checked NHC site and the only 11pm update is the strike possibilities. BTW - Old Sailor never said the storm was heading west.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 14 2005 02:48 AM

Re: another record possible?

THE NEXT RECON
FLIGHT AT 06Z SHOULD FIND IRENE AS A HURRICANE.

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 14 2005 02:52 AM

Re: Caribbean Waves

(post deleted - personal reference)

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 14 2005 02:55 AM

Re: Just love this sat loop

Quote:

I see that cluster of storms SE of TD10, maybe it's little sister following Him, It should be interesting to see what NHC says at 11:00 PM on TD10 in there forcast track and Tropical Discussion on TD10.
Dave

Ralph - this is the post you replied to....no mention of a westward moving storm.....anyway....i'm done with this discussion with you.

(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))

Sun Aug 14 2005 03:08 AM

Re: Caribbean Waves

And if fact - when he said it, it was indeed moving west - and if you'll notice the Update on the Main Page, I also said it. I believe that it is still moving generally to the west. It has recently made a slight jog to the northwest, but storms wobble about - particularly in their formative stages. Meteorologists can often interpret things differently, but we gon't get in the habit of nit-picking. A little courtesy goes a long way - especially on this site.

Ed Dunham. Administrator
Chief Meteorologist (ret)
The Boeing Company

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 14 2005 03:17 AM

Re: Caribbean Waves *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

stormchazer

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 14 2005 03:45 AM

Re: Caribbean Waves

Quote:

WHILE WIND REPORTS FROM NOAA
BUOY 41041 AND A 13/2349Z SSMI OVERPASS SUGGEST THAT BROAD
CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE LOCATED NEAR 14N46W...OR ABOUT 90 NMI
SOUTHWEST OF THE ADVISORY POSITION. HOWEVER...THE SSMI DATA MAY BE
DEPICTING ONE OF SEVERAL SMALL CIRCULATIONS THAT MAY BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE REMNANTS OF THE ITCZ...SO THE OFFICIAL POSITION WAS
BASED ON CONTUNITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY MOTION AND KEPT NEAR
THE SIDE OF THE STRONGEST CONVECTION.

Another words, without a definative fix they are following contunity and following the NW movement.

Quote:

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 315/08.

Notice the term...."ESTIMATE."

Anyways, TD10 is in its formative stages and it is hard, especially at night to guage the exact movements.

Use PM to assist others. Not the Board...portion of post removed.~danielw

(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))

Sun Aug 14 2005 04:15 AM

Administrative Note

Just completed some clean-up work on the thread. I was able to recover some posts and they have been placed in the Forecast Lounge.
ED

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 14 2005 04:35 AM

Re: Administrative Note

Ed - I have a question for you concerning TD10. I watched JB's video today and he used a model (can't remember which one) and advanced it to 288 hours which would bring TD10 or Jose, to the Florida coast. He seemed pretty serious about it, but we all know that only time will tell. What was alarming was a professional Met looking 288 hours ahead and predicting a Fla landfall. Kind of scary for novice folks like myself. Whats your take??

(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))

Sun Aug 14 2005 05:02 AM

Long Range Model

For the moment, I'd take it with a grain of salt - not worth worrying about. Performance of long-range models beyond about 5 days is very poor, and the only long range model in the public domain is the GFS - which has not been stellar this season. This year it has failed at 2 or 3 days, let alone 12. Could it happen? Well anything is possible, but will it verify - not likely at all. Remember, the models are just a guide to the forecaster - they are not the gospel. Sometimes an experienced forecaster will see things that the model has missed or didn't put the proper significance on. If the system even survives, in about a week (or less) the GFS will have the storm going someplace else. I'm not a betting man, but I'd bet on that!
Cheers,
ED

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 14 2005 05:32 AM

Re: Administrative Note

Just keep in mind JB and JC and everybody else want viewers to 'stay tuned for further information about this developing situation.' So if it's an off day and there is no immediate threat, they have to get more creative. Saying 'the storm might do this, 12 days from now, according to one model' indicates it was an off day in the TC/Hurricane News business. I wouldn't make anything more of it than that.

(off-topic material removed)

(Meteorologist)

Sun Aug 14 2005 05:40 AM

Re: Long Range Model

I'll agree wholeheatedly with Ed's statement. There's a classic example of this effect with long-range GFS runs with Frances last year hanging in the halls at FSU. Two consecutive runs, out 13 days, took the storm on over 1000km different tracks -- one into southern Florida, one recurving it near Bermuda. Even though Frances did ultimately affect Florida, it did so several days later than that projection, given the weak steering regime it moved into near the northern Bahamas. Needless to say, it's best just to watch things as they unfold and then begin to make preparations if it looks like it might impact your area 5 days out.

I've added another blog post to the front page about this storm. Highlights this time include...
* Why did Irene turn out to sea and not head into the US? (A retrospective piece with some educational aspects as well.)
* Where is Irene going, and how strong will it get as it heads out?
* What about TD 10? The models don't pick up it very well, so what can we forecast in the interim?
* Analysis of the overall pattern & potential changes in it across the basin, with brief comments about future areas of concern in the long-term.
* Finally, brief comments about Fernanda, Greg, and potential future development in the East Pacific.

It's pretty long, so bear with me through it please, and please do feel free to send me any comments or suggestions (or questions) via PM. I may not always be able to update on a daily basis with these storms, particularly given that this pattern of one or two storms at a time may continue for another month, but as noted in the preface to the posting, I'd like everyone's comments on the structure and timing of the posts.

Thanks everyone -- have a good night & good Sunday!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 14 2005 06:20 AM

Re: Long Range Model

I caught Bastardis' video this morning and no way did he say FL was getting hit. He should have been more clear in what he was saying, but if you went back and viewed it, you'd see what I was talking about. Someone else said the same thing on another forum and was directed back to the video by someone else who corrected them.

He showed a GFS upper chart. The point wasn't so much that he felt like the cyclone would hit Florida as to demonstrate the positive height anomalies that are coming to the Northern Atlantic with corresponding pressure falls and potential for development south of those heights. FWIW, the 7day MRF (GFS) NAO forecast has been very good this season tracking pressures in the Northern Atlantic.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.nao_index_ensm.html

I think his bigger point in the video was that the Western Gulf could be the next place to watch for impact mid next week.

Steve

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 14 2005 06:40 AM

Re: Long Range Model

Hi all - a little sleepy & groggy. I woke up with a nightmare and sought out some familiar things to do until I could get in a good frame of mind to go back to bed. So, a day later, now Irene looks like I expected she'd look overnight yesterday, but didn't. Very tidied up. And this after looking very scraggly all day long today. Surprise again, go figure. Glanced over the thread and read discussion 38, and checked the recon which it looks like has just started to come in (I don't see anything of note in the 14/05:06:10Z).

I'm glad NHC is pretty sure about that turn. Looking at the sat image and seeing the possibility of Irene getting up to hurricane status, even just so, and still some westward movement, brings things into sharper focus.

LoisCane

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 14 2005 12:31 PM

why people listen to Bastardi

For one because his discussion on his different possible solutions to scenarios is well based and in depth and a feast of facts for people who love weather and being able to watch different scenarios played out. He gives good explanations and even when he is wrong ... I learn a lot about things I wouldn't pay much attention to otherwise and can keep in mind and utilize later.

It's fun to watch his mind work I suppose.

Either way, reading here what you all are saying and still think it is hard to say for sure what a storm will do when climo is so off as it is this year. A lot more variables than in normal years. This year is far from normal.

Read the Tropical Update this morning from NHC and had to look through it several times just to realize discussion on TD10 was a sort of PS with a reference to another site.

Agree with Frank in that the one behind TD10 looks more interesting than TD10.

Everytime I go to look at TD 10 my eyes go elsewhere.

Have a good day everyone, reading your blog Clark.

Enjoying the blogs here.. Bobbi
if you think on it.. Bastardi's column (which I prefer to his video) has been from day one sort of like a blog more than a post.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 14 2005 12:41 PM

Re: why people listen to Bastardi

Well, Irene looks like a compact Hurricane this morning and TD10.... i don't think it will make it through today. The low level center is way far away from convection (sw of blob) and moving west.... if it makes it to this afternoon....it's hanging on...

Anyway here's a nice loop this morning Irene of NC Coast

Tazmanian93

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 14 2005 12:49 PM

Re: Long Range Model

Good morning all, is this a meaningless circulation @24 and 82 just off the florida coast http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))

Sun Aug 14 2005 01:12 PM

Circulation off SW Florida

...is an upper level low (cold core) that is kicking off some thunderstorms. Read Clark's latest blog - he mentions it. Nothing to be concerned about.
Cheers,
ED

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 14 2005 01:31 PM

Re: Circulation off SW Florida

Is the shear over Td 10 worse than the shear irene had to go through. Also what else is cooking in the basin?

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 14 2005 02:00 PM

Re: Administrative Note

Quote:

Ed - I have a question for you concerning TD10. I watched JB's video today and he used a model (can't remember which one) and advanced it to 288 hours which would bring TD10 or Jose, to the Florida coast. He seemed pretty serious about it, but we all know that only time will tell. What was alarming was a professional Met looking 288 hours ahead and predicting a Fla landfall. Kind of scary for novice folks like myself. Whats your take??

This season and even last seson, JB has been off, waaay off on his hurricane forecasts. To the point that I don't consider him a credible source of information anymore. Basicly it comes down to the fact that he seems to see EVERY storm that is moving West coming to Florida or New Orleans and it just isn't happening.
I appreciate and get much more accurate information from Clark and Ed and others on this sited.
I guess it never hurts to read what JB has to say but in my opinion, he is wrong much more than he is right.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 14 2005 02:19 PM

Sunday Morning

TD10 should be an open wave at 11am adv.... center is very exposed ......( take a look here ). Also irene appears to be suckin in some dry air on nw side there looks like two areas of convection now, with the low level center in the northern one. RSO - vis this morning looks cool.....

More interesting right now, to me is the wave north of Panama in the Carribean. Should move NW..... will see what happens in a few days.wv loop

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 14 2005 02:23 PM

Attachment

Re: Sunday Morning

On visible satilite doesnt even look like there is a circulation center if 10 opens to a wave what are the chances it could reform into a depression?

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 14 2005 03:00 PM

Re: Administrative Note

Regarding JB: yes I totally agree and in a normal world if someone were to wishcast so many storms one after the other into these potential disaster scenarios, you'd think it would hurt them. Because it doesn't, one can only assume that accuracy in reporting over time is not important to the general public, at least not as important as sensationalism. People seem to watch the news each day with no memory or concern about what was said yesterday.

OK I have a question about Irene. I realize that day-to-day intensity variations are one of the things that are hard to predict. I've been watching Irene the last couple days and every time she gets some good convection going everything looks improved for awhile and then it falls apart. Is the dry air contributing in a big way? Because I am not seeing the same effects as I saw before on mature hurricanes, where you could see the dry air making inroads between bands. In this case the blob of convection over the LLC seems round and complete, but then it never seems to turn into the cloud pattern you'd expect.

Lee-Delray

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 14 2005 03:11 PM

Re: Administrative Note

Speaking as a "layman". I have problems with JB. When he was on the O'Reilly Factor last month he was too excited that storms would hit the US. I realize his position, but we have to remember that we're talking billionsof dollars of damage, injury and death. I'm not wishcasting storms away from the US either; let's face it someone somewhere on the east coast or the GOM is going to get hit this year.

When O'Reilly said I hope you're wrong at the end (thinking like I do); he said with too much glee, "I hope not".

Just a minor vent.

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 14 2005 03:27 PM

Re: Administrative Note

Not Necessarily. I know this topic is wandering away from subject, but I think we must be aware of who is reading this site and keep it honest and reliable. Just because a large number of storms are forecast to form does not mean that they will hold together, go to any one place, or be a category storm when it gets there.
The hoopla has been driven by an anomaly of 3 storms hitting and crossing south and central Florida all in the same year and it is also driven by the unusally hot weather, early storm formation and we could go on. However, we know that many many news outlets nowdays are relying on the most twisted, outlandish, and highly exaggerated news that they can get while sitting behind a computer sorting for rumors. Intelligent people know this and the rest of society does not care. Please remember that JB is a business man first and maybe very talented in reading weather patterns, but he is not psychic.( I don't think)
Take care to only rely on the NHC for good forecasting done by hardworking people who get a government controlled salary that does not go up or down based on popularity but on the taxes contributed by hardworking people. IF there is any problems with the integrity of the reporting it is always an error towards caution rather than media popularity.

Lee-Delray

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 14 2005 03:39 PM

Re: Administrative Note

Thanks for the reply.

I agree with you, the only reliable source is the NHC. I don't fall into the hype, but don't enjoy watching it be fed by the media.

I really like reading this site though, it has helped me understand the science.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 14 2005 04:26 PM

Re: CHANGES

Would the favorable enviroment of June/July last all season. I sure doubt it. Will the unfavorable enviroment of late July,early August last all season. I surely doubt it. We were treated with a rare glimpse into the future that this season beholds. We broke all kinds of early records and I think more to come. It's almost like a switch. Somebody turned it off and soon to be turned back on. Get ready for sleepless again.

(Meteorologist)

Sun Aug 14 2005 04:36 PM

Re: Sunday Morning

Well, TD 10 was downgraded at 11a, though I'm not sure why the call was made to discontinue this one versus not discontinuing Irene. Maybe they don't think it'll regenerate, maybe the slight differences in wind speeds lead to cancelling this one entirely, I'm not sure, but given a LLC, I'm left wondering (just a little) why this one was canceled and not Irene way-back-when. Oh well. It's still one to watch, as once the shear lets up (if it does) it has the pieces to become organized, but it may not do so until later in the period.

Steve H1

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 14 2005 04:52 PM

Re: Sunday Morning

Former TD 10 is coming back to life (not sure why they didn't wait another advisory to downgrade also) and is moving toward the WNW/NW. I suspect it will be back up to TD status by sometime tomorrow. The low-level circulation is getting some convection on the NW side and the circulation is bacoming more apparent on visible satellite. Condition should improve over the next few days, once it gets by the trough completely.

Kevin

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 14 2005 05:13 PM

Re: Sunday Morning

I noticed that-there is some cloudiness where the detached/remnant LLC is. I think that the system moves wnw or nw in a generally disorganized state for the next few days. We could possibly see redevelopment by Tuesday, but I still wouldn't bet on it.

EDIT: Actually, if that is really is the LLC moving away from the larger area of convection, I'm wondering if it would be possible to see a depression reform with the LLC. It does seem to be gaining thunderstorm activity while moving wnw.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 14 2005 05:21 PM

Re: Sunday Morning

>>This season and even last seson, JB has been off, waaay off on his hurricane forecasts.

I don't see how you can say that. He doesn't give "forecasts" on storms unless you read the columns (which I don't). He gives scenarios. But his forte is not in forecasting landfalls. He's better at seasonal analysis and pattern recognition. How anyone could come to the conclusion that he was waaay off in 2004 based on his Landfall Intensity Forecast is beyond me. His 2005 LIF forecast remains to be seen and verified. He's not bee great with some storm specific ideas, but he's also been better than the NHC on some (Cindy for instance and Franklin hanging out to dry for a while). He was off on Dennis, but only by about 150 miles from 6 days out. I think you're mischaracterizing his intentions and what he does.

>>To the point that I don't consider him a credible source of information anymore. Basicly it comes down to the fact that he seems to see EVERY storm that is moving West coming to Florida or New Orleans and it just isn't happening.

Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. I fell into the same trap with the NHC in 2002 and 2004. They weren't worth squat in 2002 (I know, I got rain from 7 different storms so I paid attention). Last year they over-relied on the GFS model and turned every wave to long tracked hurricane up at 45, 50, 55, 60, 65, 70, etc. etc. etc.

>> appreciate and get much more accurate information from Clark and Ed and others on this site.

I enjoy those guys too, but they're not infailable as they'd both tell you. Hell, I've outguessed both of them a couple of times and I'm not even a doormat to the league they're in. /blind squirrel analogy

>>I guess it never hurts to read what JB has to say but in my opinion, he is wrong much more than he is right

This stuff gets bantered around the web, but how about some specifics rather than generalities. He's been wrong "how" more than he's right "how."

If you're going to use Joe Bastardi, you don't read a second-hand account of some Bastardi hater on an internet message board to form a conclusion. You have to learn how to use him. He offers clues as to what's going on in the bigger picture that can be interpreted down by the individual who wants to incorporate them into what they're seeing. He also is great for headsup on stuff most of us don't have time to research. He mentioned early this week that the NAO was about to swing strongly positive. I verified that by going to the NAO chart to see for myself. Sure enough, the 7-day lead has been outstanding this season and is calling for a strong positive anomaly in the North Atlantic. So if this verifies as Irene pulls out, the lower pressures will be in the SW Atlantic, Gulf and Caribbean. That's the kind of stuff you want to get from Joe B, not a landfall idea.

JMO

Steve

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 14 2005 06:42 PM

Re: Sunday Morning

Finally I think Irene will be our 3rd Hurricane this season Scatt 4.0/4.0 should be update at 5:00 to Hurricane moving NNE. Last pass on use to be TD10 now slows to weak ,still a wait and see what happens..

Dave

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 14 2005 06:50 PM

Re: Sunday Morning

My earlier question was not answered:

"I have a question about Irene. I realize that day-to-day intensity variations are one of the things that are hard to predict. I've been watching Irene the last couple days and every time she gets some good convection going everything looks improved for awhile and then it falls apart. Is the dry air contributing in a big way? Because I am not seeing the same effects as I saw before on mature hurricanes, where you could see the dry air making inroads between bands. In this case the blob of convection over the LLC seems round and complete, but then it never seems to turn into the cloud pattern you'd expect. "

The last couple sat frames, am I seeing an eye now with Irene? Appears so on both visual and water vapor.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 14 2005 06:58 PM

Re: Sunday Morning

yeah looks like a very tight hurricane...just at or near 75mph. Would expect a hurricane at 5pm adv..... does Irene have an eye? looks like it....TD 10 low level is moving to the wnw....see how long it survives, hey Irene was in worse condition about a week ago and made it...

here she is

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 14 2005 06:58 PM

Re: Sunday Morning

There no eye wall there, looks to be dry air and lack of convection being drawn into Irene's center,
It seem that Irene has lost some convection, the Scatt reading was taken over hour 1 1/2 ago. Irene was a Hurricane but it may have been very short lived about 2 hours.. See if NHC says the same about Irene at 5:00 PM

Dave

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 14 2005 07:13 PM

Re: Sunday Morning

i am currently looking at some data and it looks like there is a ship to the NE of Irene heading south....if it kept its course it would pass just east of Irene late monday.....interesting, because they should be hitting ground swell now

northeast of storm

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 14 2005 07:44 PM

Re: Sunday Morning

Quote:

There no eye wall there, looks to be dry air and lack of convection being drawn into Irene's center,
It seem that Irene has lost some convection, the Scatt reading was taken over hour 1 1/2 ago. Irene was a Hurricane but it may have been very short lived about 2 hours.. See if NHC says the same about Irene at 5:00 PM

Dave

That's so interesting, now how can you tell the difference? is it by looking at the sat images or other info? Continues to look like an eye to me. Still learning...

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Aug 14 2005 08:37 PM

Re: Still a TS

latest on Irene keeps her right below hurricane

TROPICAL STORM IRENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092005
2100Z SUN AUG 14 2005
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 69.8W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.

TROPICAL STORM Irene ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2005
... <b>IRENE NEARLY A HURRICANE</b> .....

Irene 5pm Disc.

....WITH A FAINT EYE FEATURE AND GOOD SYMMETRY TO THE CDO.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 14 2005 08:54 PM

Re: Sunday Morning

Steve - I guess i never looked at JB's forecast like you put it...i always paid more attention to his landfall predictions. I like his analysis on the tropics, patterns, etc...that part was ok with me it was his landfall points that got me. You did put it into perspective......i guess i should get the info i need about the atmosphere conditions and then turn it off when he starts talking about landfall. Thanks for your insight!!!

Hurricane Fredrick 1979

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 14 2005 10:09 PM

Re: Sunday Morning

Looks like Hurricane Irene to me unless this is a earlier report.

URNT12 KNHC 142136
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/21:18:40Z
B. 34 DEG 29 MIN N
069 DEG 49 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1356 M
D. NA KT
E. DEG NM
F. 192 DEG 079 KT
G. 110 DEG 019 NM
H. EXTRAP 991 MB
I. 14 C/ 1824 M
J. 20 C/ 1831 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN W-NW
M. C20
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 NM
P. AF306 WX09A IRENE02 OB 12
MAX FL WIND 79 KT E QUAD 20:55:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 14 2005 10:10 PM

Re: Still a TS

So - it is an eye. Also I see the eye is wobbling, which is something I have seen before on the sat images when hurricanes are in a strengthening phase. And the clouds around the center are starting to have that symmetric tire shape. So it is correct to assume it is still strengthening for now, althought from previous discussions I know there is only a limited time it will have a favorable environment to strengthen.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 14 2005 10:44 PM

Re: Still a TS

It is now a hurricane gang:

HURRICANE IRENE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
630 PM AST SUN AUG 14 2005

REPORTS FROM A AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT IRENE HAS STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW A HURRICANE. AT 2144 UTC...
THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED A WIND OF 81 KT AT 850 MB...WHICH CORRESPONDS
TO A SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 65 KT...OR 75 MPH. ON THIS BASIS...IRENE
IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.

BECAUSE THIS STRENGTHENING WAS ANTICIPATED...NO SPECIAL ADVISORY IS
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

TheElNino

(Registered User)

Sun Aug 14 2005 11:26 PM

The Resurrection of TD10

Looks like TD10 may be coming back from the dead. I see some convection picking up within the low level circulation, heading WNW.

Please provide a link to the site you are using.~danielw

CaneTrackerInSoFl

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 14 2005 11:49 PM

Re: The Resurrection of TD10

I heard something to that nature from msn. I am currently trying to pull up the article but there apparently was a news alert sent out.

EDIT: Never mind, my friend who told me this just double checked and it was the original alert.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 14 2005 11:57 PM

TD10

Unless X-TD10 shows something significant quickly. NHC probably won't reclassify it until the 11PM Advisory. If then!

Especially with Irene spinning up and Two RECON planes throwing data.
Seems like Dennis was the last time 2 Recon planes were in the same storm at the same time. Almost real-time data.
Vortex fixes every 45 minutes are normally seen with landfalling Hurricanes.

(Moderator)

Mon Aug 15 2005 12:06 AM

Irene

Well, Irene finally managed to pull off CAT 1 status.
Almost hard to imagine after a week of being uncoupled from top to bottom.
Last Vortex had an extrapolated MCP of 989mb.
And Max FLT Level Winds of 85kts E Quad at 2242Z.
This is with an open Eyewall.

AF306 WX09A IRENE02 OB 19
MAX FL WIND 85 KT E QUAD 22:42:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 140 / 10NM
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 15 2005 12:21 AM

Re: TD10

I wouldn't write off the LLC of old TD 10 yet. Some recent convection near the LLC and good circulation evident on the VIS SAT. TD10 looks to be drifting slowly W-NW. The 12Z UKMET develops the depression into a storm and has it moving just to the north of the Windward Islands and then W-NW thru the central Bahamas in 6 days. A long way off and only one model run, but the global pattern of a rebuilding Atlantic Ridge after Irene is predicted by many models - thus if TD10 develops, its unlikely to go north out into the open Atlantic. And what's that feature spinning CC around 30N-55W diving S-SW. It looks like a mid latitude low pressure system - the circulation doesn't show up on the water vapor.

(Weather Watcher)

Mon Aug 15 2005 12:29 AM

Re: TD10

This was your forecast a few days ago on Irene now your shot at 10 coming back

Quote:

The ridge is centered just to the east of Bermuda with a bridge over to another center off of the east coast of Florida. The storm likely will not split the ridge betwen the 2 high centers because its strong and forecast to strengthen over the next couple of days. The western axis is also forecast to slowly drift north to a latitude of Daytona Beach by Sunday. What does this mean? In the short term, probably a slowing of the storm and perhaps more of a W-NW or W motion. Some models show an eroding of the western side of the Bermuda High in 72 hours and this is what NHC is forecasting to move the storm N-NW.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Aug 15 2005 01:23 AM

Re: Irene

actually i think there were 3-4 planes up yesterday at one time....i know there were two af planes at once....an old one and a new (had different data transmissions) and i know the G-IV was up and i think there may have been a P-3 up too.... (with Irene) With the TCPS going last month and the early storms, and not to mention air fuel prices going way up.....the AF and NOAA will be going over budget this year in recon missions!!!!! Think old TD is on the come back, noticed all day the swirl stayed there and move NW some, with a few flare ups durning the evening and now.....they may wait one more adv. to bring it back to see if it holds.....

Ryan

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 15 2005 01:29 AM

TD#10 Coming back for more?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation

check out the GFDL models, they have TD#10 becoming a cat. 3 hurricane in about 114 hours, and then in the llaasttt frame you can see a little spec of cat. 4 force storm. What are peoples opinions on this event?

EDIT: also, in 48 hours is has it being a TS Jose, we'll just have to seee

Ryan, as richisurfs mentioned in a later post, you can't use just one model run for any given system. The previous two runs of the GFDL, at 6z and 12z, both dissipated the storm within 48hr -- whereas now, after it has been dropped by the NHC, it takes it to category 4 status in five days. It's got a shot at regenerating down the line, probably in a day or so, but not like that. --Clark

52255225

(Weather Guru)

Mon Aug 15 2005 01:32 AM

Re: Irene

can you please tell me the current current coordinates of td 10? Thanks!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Aug 15 2005 01:37 AM

Re: Irene

so what's the count now with the atlantic?

9 storms
5 hurricanes
2 major
-----------
9 + 1 TD?=10

CaneTrackerInSoFl

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 15 2005 01:46 AM

Re: Irene

Quote:

so what's the count now with the atlantic?

9 storms
5 hurricanes
2 major
-----------
9 + 1 TD?=10

Lets seeL

Tropical Storm Arlene
TS Bret
TS Cindy
Hurricane Dennis (M)
Hurricane Emily (M)
TS Franklin
TS Gert
TS Harvey
Hurricane Irene
TS Jose?

By my count we have had 9 storms, 3 canes, and 2 major canes.

Steve H1

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 15 2005 01:54 AM

Re: Irene

That is interesting. TD #10 isn't done, and I stated earlier that I think it could get classified sometime tomorrow again, but there is quite a bit of shear to get past as an unusually deep through in the central Atlantic digs southward. It is hitting it with southerly shear at the upper levels. This should abate, but not sure how long it will take. These things are difficult to forecast (shear). But as the "TD" movew NW/WNW, conditions should improve and develop would be likely IMO. Cheers!!

richisurfs

(Weather Guru)

Mon Aug 15 2005 01:54 AM

Re: TD#10 Coming back for more?

Ryan...I think thats one model run thats subject to change numerous times between now and 114 hours out.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Aug 15 2005 02:26 AM

Re: TD#10 Coming back for more?

is this the old TD 10 that is back?
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD (10L)
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 13.6N 45.9W

that would be WSW of the 11am, but that doesn't seem right?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Aug 15 2005 02:30 AM

Re: TD#10 Coming back for more?

nope not tonight

but we do have a New Hurricane....Irene
TWOAL

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ARE LOCATED ABOUT 875 MILES
EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WITH THIS SYSTEM TONIGHT...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR REDEVELOPMENT AT
THIS TIME.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Aug 15 2005 02:33 AM

Re: TD#10 Coming back for more?

Irene:
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 69.2W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Aug 15 2005 02:40 AM

Re: TD 10 is now upon us

The ukmet has TD 10 by the bahamas later on in the week this model hasent done that bad

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Aug 15 2005 02:50 AM

Re: TD 10 is now upon us

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Aug 15 2005 03:41 AM

Re: TD 10 is now upon us

(Moderator)

Mon Aug 15 2005 03:42 AM

Final Advisory

To eliminate any and all confusion to some of the readers here.
This is the Final Advisory on what was TD 10. Issued 12 hours ago.
There is No TD 10. Only the remnants remain.
End of discussion. Until NHC makes a determination that it has regenerated.
Any further posts will be removed from the board.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 14 2005

VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE DEPRESSION. THERE IS STILL A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS EVIDENCED BY LOW CLOUD MOTIONS AND A QUIKSCAT PASS...BUT IT IS WEAK...20-25 KT. BECAUSE THE SYSTEM DOES NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION...IT NO LONGER
MEETS THE CRITERIA FOR A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THEREFORE ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR MAY RELAX OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR
REGENERATION...AND THE DEPRESSION'S REMNANTS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

THE SYSTEM HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT AND INITIAL MOTION IS ROUGHLY 320/6. THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO MOVE ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD TRACK...TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.

FORECASTER PASCH

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/141440.shtml
Bold emphasis added~danielw

(Meteorologist)

Mon Aug 15 2005 05:53 AM

Re: Final Advisory

It's near the diurnal convective maximum, so the standard short-term caveats apply in this case, but TD 10 is looking, well, like a tropical depression once again. Convection has flared up around the center in curved bands, primarily to the northwest and notheast of the center. It is still in a shearing environment and will likely remain so for the next day or two, but it is looking quite a bit like Irene did for several days. I mentioned earlier that I'm not sure why the NHC downgraded it so quickly, particularly given what they maintained with Irene, but they are the experts and I'm not going to say it was a bad call...just one I'd like some clarification on.

If current trends continue, I expect they'll pick back up with advisories sometime Monday. That said, I'd only put it at 50/50 that current trends continue, given the shear in the vicinity of the disturbance. No matter whether it gets picked back up or not, it should continue largely to the west or west-northwest and be near the northern islands in a few days. The weakness of the storm plus it missing the weakness from the trough to the NE are the culprits in this motion. Beyond that, model solutions diverge, with the potential for this to either head back out to sea (NOGAPS, GFDL) or turn more towards the west (GFS, UKMET) -- needless to say, it's way too early to make a forecast on this, given that it isn't even a depression right now.

The GFS forecasts a more favorable upper-level environment to develop near the storm in the next day or so, while the UKMET tracks an identifiable entity through 6 days to a position near the Bahamas, suggesting some development may be possible later in the period. The NOGAPS is a bit more bullish than the GFS on developing this ridging, a departure from what was forecast in most of yesterday's runs. They will all have to be watched for continuity and to see if this all actually occurs, but given the model concurrence, it's a good bet things will get more favorable through time.

So, to recap...it's not TD 10 right now, but it's not out of our hair just yet. We'll watch it.

Interesting to note...it's 5-6 days out, but all of the models are picking up on a strong feature coming off of the coast of Africa at that point. Another upper-low is forecast to build into the central Atlantic in 3-4 days, but start to move out about the time this feature hits the coast. The favorable environment conditions are coming, as advertised...we'll have to see how this pans out.

More Monday or Tuesday.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Aug 15 2005 11:50 AM

Re: WAVE

The latest wave coming off Africa has finally not disappated. Looks like the Sal is decreasing off Africa and the trough that was out there is moving away. There seems to be a low around 18w 11n as the wave comes off. Will this be the locomotive?

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 15 2005 01:06 PM

Bye Bye Irene

Can we finally put Irene to rest as far as the CONUS is concerned? Hope so as it's definately just a threat to fishermen on the great banks brining in their catch.

TD 10? looks to be just a simple flareup of thunderstorms heading generally in a NNW direction. Definately nothing to be concerned about.

All seems well in the tropics at least for now.

Ed in Va

(Weather Master)

Mon Aug 15 2005 03:21 PM

Re: Bye Bye Irene

Kind of a slow morning. Anyone with any thoughts on the SW Carribean? What about the wave dropping SW towards PR...is than anything?
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

(Weather Guru)

Mon Aug 15 2005 03:42 PM

Re: Bye Bye Irene

Was the Shear worse over Irene or over tropical depression 10. I am tottaly lost at why the NHC downgraded td10 yesterday it look just like irene did last week.

Ryan

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 15 2005 04:02 PM

The Tropics

so, as of now, besides Hurricane Irene we have nothing to worry about for a couple days at least, i just hope that maybe this will be a quiet period of sctivity in the troics, all we can do is wait and see. Could someone refresh my memory, whats peak of the season?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Aug 15 2005 04:04 PM

Re: The Tropics

That would be Spetember 10.

craigm

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 15 2005 04:32 PM

Re: Bye Bye Irene

Actually there is still a LLC, just to the south west, associated with this convection . Follow this link. Click on animation then 30 image loop then double click on the remnants of TD10 and you will get a 1Km loop of this area. Do not click on animate image below. You can clearly pick up the LLC moving west right along that latitude line. Hopefully you have a broadband connection.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

Rabbit

(Weather Master)

Mon Aug 15 2005 05:03 PM

Re: Bye Bye Irene

Irene appears that it is still strengthening, and the eye is now very evident on visible images, although seems to be covered with thin high clouds, which is why it is not showing up on the IR image. TD10 seems to be completely done with, i expect what little is left of the LLC to completely disappear by midweek.

Irene going out to sea, TD10 dissipated, and nothing looks like it will form--we seem to be in that brief lull that is seen at some point in every August. Some examples just in the last decade:
2004: nothing formed Aug 15-24 (the week before Frances developed)
2003: August 16-27 nothing but a TD on 8-21
2002: NOTHING between Aug 9 and 29
2001: the quiet period between track segments of Dean (Aug 23-27)
2000: NOTHING in August after the 24th
1999: entire first 17 days
1998: entire first 18 days
1997: entire month
1996: entire first 18 days
1995: nothing formed Aug 11-21

Lee-Delray

(Weather Master)

Mon Aug 15 2005 05:33 PM

Re: Bye Bye Irene

I've been seeing in other places that they are talking about the dust coming off of Africa as an inhibiting factor as it's drying the air. It makes sense, but it has to end sometime.

(Weather Guru)

Mon Aug 15 2005 05:39 PM

Attachment

Wave off of Africa

The wave coming of a Africa look healtheir then any that i have seen this year it looks like it could be associated with a low. Met do you got anything on this one and are any models devloping it. Here is a attachment of it

CDMOrlando

(Weather Hobbyist)

Mon Aug 15 2005 05:49 PM

Re: Bye Bye Irene

As a practical matter I think that the NHC did not want to have TD-10 in it's current state effect their forecast error. Aswe all know the strength of the storm has a major effect on the track. As they found with Irene, they could not predict the strenght and missed the forecast path. Since this is no danger and not knowing if or when it will develope, no need to forecast a path what will be wrong. The "1st." models had the storm moving hundred of miles in a different direction than the current local.

Ryan

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 15 2005 05:51 PM

Re: Wave off of Africa

no name, it looks like a big cluster of thunderstorms, i htink it may have to get its asct togrther a little bit

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 15 2005 05:56 PM

Re: Bye Bye Irene

Rabbit, nice summary of August calm periods. Really not unusual. You may be right about former TD10, but it still has a pretty impressive LLC. I remember Irene in a similar situation not too long ago. If it can survive the shearing environment another day or two, it may have a chance to develop convection around the center again. And it's alot further south in latitude, which over the long run probably gives it more favorable conditions to develop.

(Weather Guru)

Mon Aug 15 2005 06:25 PM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

Look Like What is left of td 10 is just a remant low it looks like it is dissipating and I dont think the LLC will last till the shear relaxes I think is spose to realaxe in 2-3 days but i'm not sure some could help me find this out I would be very happy. It had almost none if any convection left. So anything intressing going on in the basin sence Irene Is Heading out to sea and 10 looks dead what is next.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 15 2005 06:28 PM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

Latest run on Old TD 10 or invest 96 it's not doing anything except west like a wave.

15/1745 UTC 14.8N 49.9W TOO WEAK 10
15/1145 UTC 14.6N 49.3W T1.0/1.5 10
Dave

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Mon Aug 15 2005 06:33 PM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

which means what old sailor?

Ryan

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 15 2005 06:46 PM

Down Time

whats nexy you ask, some down time to get ready for the peak season, unfortunatley i think their will be more systems to watch around august 24th...or just mid-late august in general.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 15 2005 07:00 PM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

Means right now Old TD10 is moving west no signs of coming back right now, However if in a few days it does become a TD again we just may have a GOM problem instead of a East Coast problem.

Dave

(Weather Master)

Mon Aug 15 2005 07:32 PM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

old sailor what are you looking at that shows a GOM as even with wave the models show going north west down the road so what model are you useing for that call???? or is it a gut feeling which we all have.

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 15 2005 07:49 PM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

What I was saying old TD10 is traveling west at about 285 to maybe 290 if this LLC does not delevop it will most likely keep tracking w, w-nw Lets say in 48 hours TD10 start to come back to life, by then it be in the east Carrib, right now the models just being toild a low is there. LLC I hope it just stays a low ,it could gain TD back in a few days if that was to happen just MAY be a problem in the GOM.

Dave

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Mon Aug 15 2005 08:27 PM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

>>Steve - I guess i never looked at JB's forecast like you put it...i always paid more attention to his landfall predictions. I like his analysis on the tropics, patterns, etc...that part was ok with me it was his landfall points that got me. You did put it into perspective......i guess i should get the info i need about the atmosphere conditions and then turn it off when he starts talking about landfall. Thanks for your insight!!!

No problem. It's a case of not wanting to throw the baby out with the bathwater for me. I don't want to completely knock his landfalls, because I have seen him outperform other forecasters and the NHC a time or two (Isidore, Lili, Cindy). But his value is more in the realm of "heads-up, look at this possibility" than in the "Dennis will be landfalling near the mouth of the MS River").

Anyway, the Western Caribbean is fairly active today. I'm wondering what, if anything, might come out of that. Some of the globals have shown some bulging in their isobars either near/on the Yucatan Peninsula or in the Bay of Campeche. That was a little less pronounced, but there is some persistence.

daniel,

Why would you want to delete any future posts about the remnants of TD #10? While it's fairly evident we don't have anything to even think about now, there is still a low-level swirl, and some of the models are taking an inverted trof toward the SE FL coast near the ends of their runs (weekend time frame). It's just my opinion, but I wouldn't want to stiffle any reasonable discussion about any potential this season.

Steve

craigm

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 15 2005 10:23 PM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

Here I go again with my 85GHZ that I refer to so much. I realize this is bordering on being sheared apart but, how much energy are we actually observing here. Keep in mind this is more than water vapor radiance -liquid water, clouds and Ice at the top of the convection. Right now it it is a fairly organized feature compared to infrared and visible imagery. This image is about 4 hours old. (darn polar orbits)
Maybe we could call this'The depression formerly known as 10'.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/SS85/20.jpg

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 15 2005 11:12 PM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

Maybe Danny's thinking was the fact that the NHC wasn't holding anymore discussions on it and de-classified it - thus the reason he wanted everyone to drop the TD10 talk. I don't doubt anyone's ability on here, but until the NHC says that this thing will come back, i am going to say it's a goner. The 5pm tropical discussion says that upper level winds are not favorable at this time and that formation is not expected through Tuesday. So, once again it's a waiting game. I was on earlier today and people were talking about TD10 and the posts were not removed.....perhaps the mods changed their minds.

Steve H1

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Aug 15 2005 11:43 PM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

There is no need to NOT DISCUSS the remnants of TD # 10 because it is a vigorous low pressure area that we may have to deal with down the line. I don't see this dissipating, and it is not just a swirl of low clouds.

tpratch

(Moderator)

Mon Aug 15 2005 11:58 PM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

I'm pretty sure they would have been deleted for other reasons. Afterall, this thread is entitled "TD 10 is now upon us".

This place is run very well - this year there is a little bit of a schism, however, due to the new "forecast" forum. What was fair game previously in the main news threads, can now sometimes be off topic, or rather, be better-suited for the forecast threads.

Storm Cooper

(User)

Tue Aug 16 2005 12:17 AM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

tpratch, Thank You for that post! Along with other things that may have been going on at the time, I am not sure what went on with the TD 10 posting in question.... BUT... lets use the PM feature to inquire about things like this and not flood the main board with it, please.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Aug 16 2005 12:41 AM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

Interesting thing Steve Gregory from wunderground stated in his latest post is that saharian dust layer could cause a lot of problems for storms to form the rest of the year. Note the word could. Just something interesting for thought

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Tue Aug 16 2005 01:09 AM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

Nobody's flooding the main board, and I'm certainly not bagging on daniel - especially since I like him - but the the quote was:

To eliminate any and all confusion to some of the readers here. This is the Final Advisory on what was TD 10. Issued 12 hours ago. There is No TD 10. Only the remnants remain. End of discussion. Until NHC makes a determination that it has regenerated. Any further posts will be removed from the board.

Unless someone was calling for an immediate intensification into a Cat 5 that was going to hit the Bahamas or something, that would be like banning talk of future African waves or upper lows with a shot to work their way down to the surface in the Central Atlantic. Maybe it was the content of the posts themselves (which I didn't see) but it didn't make a lot of sense to me that we'd want to cut off discussion of an entity that many Globals still maintain as a trackable one through the weekend.

Steve

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 16 2005 01:18 AM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

My question is..if we didn't have the remnants of TD10 to discuss, would there be any posts today? But, its not like there isn't some potential here. Look at the latest IR SAT, convection is starting to refire around the north semi-circle of the LLC. Did anyone see Accuweathers video "point/counterpoint" today (http://weather.yahoo.com/vidindex/index.html). JB discusses features with another MET & he is still talkin about Jose forming from old TD10 and cruising to the Bahamas on the southern periphery of the Atlantic Ridge. I have to admit ole JB looked rather beaten down today. He just couldn't understand why Irene went northward through this tiny crack in the Ridge. He said, quite correctly, that there were no obvious upper level features to steer her north. I was in JBs camp on this one. I too thought the Ridge would be too strong also. He was also lamenting the fact that the GFS model for some reason this year is out to lunch. Anyway, too early to write off the remnants of TD10 - Western Carribean looks like one big convective blob tonite - might be something developing over the long-term with high pressure building over top and some of the models hinting at development.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 16 2005 01:40 AM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

Everyone has been discussing the demise of TD10 - Well, I just looked at the GFDL 18Z run, and it has it up to a 113 knot hurricane in 5 days. Who knows what will happen, but it certainly doesn't leave it an open wave.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation

HanKFranK

(User)

Tue Aug 16 2005 01:46 AM

the more things change, the more they stay the same

situation hasn't changed a whole lot since when i left saturday morning. irene is the only system out there, and it isn't going to affect land.. and there's another system which needs to be watched in case it gets through the trough and starts deepening.
a'ite.. irene.. well, irene is hurricane #3. we've had nine systems so far this year and only three hurricanes... that's low. when you factor that three four were gulf tropical storms (two almost hurricanes) and that the two open-atlantic systems (franklin/harvey) were solid tropical storms at times.. it's a little more sensible. the ridge is pretty flat and sharp... so irene didn't work towards nantucket.. the westerlies north of the ridge were too strong. it's gotten about as strong as it can given the synoptic environment and will be gone in a couple of days in the north atlantic.
td 10.. has come and gone while i was out.. and should come again if it's anything like irene was. the declassification has been noted by several to be inconsistent with sheared t.d. 9/irene hanging around for days on end. this evening it's throwing a decent amount of convection in what are probably going to be <6hr bursts. the general progression of the system has been wnw since it's stayed shallow.. it should end up near 22/60 around thursday as the upper trough slowly weakens, and come under the influence of the ridge from there. i'd expect there to be a discernable low pressure area though it may or may not be a rated tropical cyclone at that point. i'd say 3 to 1 odds the storm will regenerate. some track models are poking it nw into the ridge in the western atlantic (as irene/harvey/franklin have done into progressively stronger ridges.. something to keep in mind).. others taking it more to the west near the bahamas around the weekend. there are too many variables to talk about a threat to the u.s. other than to say that it could be assuming it survives and that the ridge doesn't let it poke through. how vague is that?
mjo is working in slowly. the active convection in the western caribbean makes this evident.. as do the systems which have been developing further east in the pacific as time goes by. late last week bastardi was mentioning the lowering pressures in the gulf some of the globals were showing.. quite a few still are. in a couple of days there should be some disturbed weather in the western gulf.. is as far as i'm willing to interpret that right now.
fairly robust wave coming off africa... they've been evaporating with the sal and lackluster convergence. northeasterly flow east of the strong ridge near the east coast has a trough strung from east of bermuda to the ne caribbean. it's a sheared environment near an upper trough, but anything that works west from this area (or the td 10 feature if it breaks through) would be worthy of notice.
with the mjo anomalies trudging west, soi has been dipping negative every time it goes near neutral. the index should shift this week and the mjo wave finally become more influential in the atlantic. by the end of the month the 'wave train' should be going.. although right now we're only seeing waves activate further west.
so to recap.. td 10 regeneration looks quite possible, western gulf may trigger an invest in the next couple of days, and the eastern atlantic is quiet but should begin to perk up over the next week or two.
HF 0146z16august

(Meteorologist)

Tue Aug 16 2005 01:47 AM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

The upper-level features that propelled Irene to the north may not have been present a week ago, but they were 4 or so days ago. As model guidance changes and as the pattern changes, you've got to go with what the storm is doing, not what you originally predicted. The North Carolina landfall never happened because as the upper-low in the central Gulf moved northward, it shifted the bulk of the westerlies further northward, allowing a ridge to build in near and over Irene, keeping it moving slowly for some time. The ridge, however, was (and is) progressive, which isn't too big of a surprise given the westerly flow that did persist in the region and that the Rex block along 40W was far enough east to allow for the ridge to progress eastward (and now the block has completely broken down).

Three days ago, it became even more apparent that the channel for Irene to move through was coming, and lo and behold it did. Remember -- given weakened steering currents, the natural tendency of a storm is to drift towards the north and west. As a storm moves further north, the natural tendency is for it to recurve out to sea as it meets the westerly flow once and for all. Given this factor alone, once the steering currents collapsed with the storm so far away from the coast, the storm was basically destined to move out to sea.

It was a little surprising to see the steering flow evolve like it did early last week, when things looked more hairy for the SE United States. But, as I mentioned in my blog post from Saturday night, minor evolutions in the steering pattern can make a huge difference, as they did with Irene. To say that the way for it to head north wasn't present/visible isn't really correct; to say that it wasn't there about a week ago is more correct. That's why JB draws a lot of heat, fairly or unfairly -- he's stubborn. I'm stubborn at times too -- I haven't given up on TD 10 quite yet -- but you've gotta know when you swallow your pride and your forecast and revise things. That's why the NHC is usually conservative with their forecasts, in case things change, and why they generally do an excellent job (as borne out by the statistics).

That said, let's see what the next 5 days bring. TD 10's remnants are still around (just as a heads-up, I think Daniel's comments were designed to try to quelch the speculation that TD 10 still existed, when in fact it did not), the flareup in the western Caribbean bears watching (though is largely forced by an upper-low at this time), and the model guidance is in pretty good agreement on something substantial coming off of the coast of Africa in 4-5 days. While Irene may thankfully be heading out to sea, there's still plenty worth watching.

(Weather Watcher)

Tue Aug 16 2005 03:14 AM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

It's funny we only post what we want pin point, last night the GFDL 18Z run, same time same results, however the next 3 runs a 00Z,06Z, and 12Z showed no TD in there runs, you should give all the information out not just cherry pick to have things your way.

Edit -- to clarify, I don't think Ron is "cherry picking" just to have things his way. Sure, it's just one run of the GFDL, but there have been others that also showed similar intensification yesterday. It's about a 60/40 split favoring nothing happening out of that model, making the wishy-washy nature of the solutions dubious at best, but I really doubt Rob's just cherry picking, given his previous contributions to the forum. --Clark

Ryan

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 16 2005 03:20 AM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

Quote:

That said, let's see what the next 5 days bring. TD 10's remnants are still around (just as a heads-up, I think Daniel's comments were designed to try to quelch the speculation that TD 10 still existed, when in fact it did not), the flareup in the western Caribbean bears watching (though is largely forced by an upper-low at this time), and the model guidance is in pretty good agreement on something substantial coming off of the coast of Africa in 4-5 days. While Irene may thankfully be heading out to sea, there's still plenty worth watching.

yea i saw that storm coming of the african coast, it looks to be pretty impresive but it may reach up to the point where TD#10 died and were Irene sustantially weakened before re-gaining strenght, it seems like there's always somehting to watch, hey clark are the expecting that caribbean flare up to become an Invest or a TD or TD10 to re strengthen?

curious,ryan

Brad in Miami

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 16 2005 03:49 AM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

Just to clarify, even setting aside other issues regarding that GFDL run (i.e., it's only one run off an unclassified low, the model has been changing run to run, it's 5+ days out, etc.), that GFDL run doesn't bring the remnants of TD 10 to a 113 kt storm. The 113 kt forecast winds are at a height of 950 mb, so, according to the GFDL's translation, surface winds would typically be 15-25% less, ie about 85-96 kt.

To see that caveat, look at the lower left hand corner of the model run.

The former TD 10 still has a pretty vigorous circulation. My money is still against regeneration - looks like it has a decent amount of shear left to fight through - but not by too much. I'm surprised it's held on this well through the last 36 or more hours, but I suppose I shouldn't be in light of the shear-survivors that came before it this season.

(Weather Watcher)

Tue Aug 16 2005 03:54 AM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

Good point Brad, I miss that caveat, last night GFDL had the same output but today the other runs had showed really nothing there out 120 hours. most long range models not showing very much.

HanKFranK

(User)

Tue Aug 16 2005 05:04 AM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

we went through all this with irene. even in some of today's runs various globals aren't initializing it as anything, though it's a hurricane.
we've seen the nhc maintain classification systems like td 10 before. forecasters vary in how to classify such systems, i guess.
if you watch the cimss estimated shear, you'll notice that the shear zone is weakening and becoming less proximal to former 10. it's still too strong to allow the system to do more than minimal strengthening, but not what i'd consider strong enough to kill it. there is dry air infringement on the envelope of the low, but it isn't becoming more pronounced either. i'd put my money on its survival as of right now. all it has to do is keep bursting convection to do that.
HF 0504z16august

Storm Hunter

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Tue Aug 16 2005 06:50 AM

Re: Bye Bye TD 10

i think the low east of the islands might make a come back.....there is shear but the thing is still holding on...

why keep running models, when its just an open wave, or weak low?

Cycloneye11

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Aug 16 2005 10:55 AM

Ex TD10 making a comeback

The low center is this morning much more closer to convection and that indicates that the shear is not as strong as in the past few days.I would not be surprised if this system be renamed TD later today or tommorow.

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Tue Aug 16 2005 11:30 AM

Re: Ex TD10 making a comeback

Good morning. First, I want to say that I did read the Tropical Atlantic Discussion this morning and read the part about the trough of low pressure over the gulf etc as well as the Burmuda High that has been sitting squarely over Florida lately. After having said that, I am going to comment that the flareup of thunderstorms in the Bay of Campeche look familiar to other times of disturbed weather when a low pressure developed into a storm. My last understanding is that the Burmuda High is to remain in place until perhaps Thursday. Then there is no information about where it will be. Are there any comments on this? I personally am tired of playing with TD 10 .

MichaelA

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Aug 16 2005 11:48 AM

Re: Ex TD10 making a comeback

There is still a significant amount of SWesterly shear over the former TD10 as seen in the WV Loop this morning. It also appears that the Atlantic ridge is building westward behind Irene. I hope the ridge axis will be North of FL so that we can resume our usual SEasterly air flow and get back to "normal" summer weather.

VolusiaMike

(Weather Hobbyist)

Tue Aug 16 2005 12:04 PM

A Learning Opportunity

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
Since things are relatively quiet, how about using this set-up as a learning experience:

Looking at the TPC forecast for 72 hours in the link above, with the ridge building and the low moving toward it, and the Bermurda high above it, what chances for development do you folks see?

If you believe the low will build, where do you see the system going and why, again based on the information presented within the link

Thanks,
Michael

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 16 2005 01:10 PM

Re: Ex TD10 making a comeback

I don't think the remnants of TD10 are dead yet. From this mornings TWO:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN...
IS LOCATED ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE
ORGANIZED AND CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER THIS MORNING. WHILE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
REDEVELOPMENT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD REGENERATE INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH

NewWatcher

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 16 2005 01:18 PM

Re: Ex TD10 making a comeback

I am thinking TD10 might make a comeback based on the conditions ahead, also thinking in the interim it will moke w to wnw for 3 days then we wait and see what happens with the ridge and the system, if there is one at that point

Random Chaos

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Aug 16 2005 01:50 PM

Re: Ex TD10 making a comeback

Looking at the recent track the remnants of TD10 are not following the "west northwestward" track that NHC has been continually calling for, and instead over the past 24 hours it has slid more west southwest. It seems that a lot of the more recent systems out there this year (Franklin, Harvey, Irene, this one) seem to like ignoring the NHC guidance, both in tracking further south and in not getting torn appart by other systems that the NHC is predicting will do such. I suspect that the NHC has picked up on this, and that's why (a) Irene wasn't downgraded and (b) TD10 remnants are still being so closely watched.

If systems are able to survive in such hazardous conditions as Irene and TD10 seem to be able to do, I wonder what will happen with a truely strong wave like the one that Clark mentioned might come off Africa in about half a week.

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Tue Aug 16 2005 01:55 PM

Re: Ex TD10 making a comeback

I think next week will be very busy.What was once TD10 could make a comeback,there is a wave coming off Africa and there is a low that should come off Africa in a couple of days.A low in that postion is not a commen thing,THAT could be real interesting to watch.Enjoy the little lull were are in,cause I think next week will be the start of alot of action.

The Force 2005

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 16 2005 02:06 PM

Re: Ex TD10 making a comeback

To the MOD's on this blog, any chance of changing to a new thread, since TD-10 is longer? A new subject should be given here.

Ryan

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 16 2005 02:18 PM

Re: Ex TD10 making a comeback

yea bob i see where your getting that one from, in the models a pretty impressive wave is shown coming off Africa in 4 days give or take a day, and remnats of TD#10 picked up some convection and thunderstorm activity, and its moving into waters more favorable, just like Irene, it weakened and its now regaining a little of it's former strength. We'll have to wait and see.

One thing is for sure, i'm going to Montauk tomorrow till saturday and there should be some pretty biiigg waves and dangerous rip currents.

Ryan

NewWatcher

(Storm Tracker)

Tue Aug 16 2005 02:21 PM

Re: Ex TD10 making a comeback

6z gfs, 00z cmc and the fsu all have a really significant wave coming off africa sometime between 120 and 144 hrs. This one might be interesting.... as for no-longer td10, i still think we will see a general w wnw track overall for a few
IMO