MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 06:12 AM |
Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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11:45AM Update
ExTD 10 will likely be reclassified as a new system if it develops. The navy is now referring to it as 99L instead of Former TD#10 which would imply renaming. Recon aircraft are heading out there this afternoon to check to see what the area is.
Folks along South Florida will want to pay extra attention to this over the next few days.
Original Update
Tropical Storm Jose made landfall over Mexico a little north of Veracruz. This short lived storm will be another large rainmaker for Mexico.
Proximity to the US and other factors, as well as another persistent flare up have forced attention back to what was Tropical Depression 10.
Recon aircraft will likely head out this afternoon if it continues to persist today. The models are not a good indicator of what the system might do at this time, however there is a decent chance once again for this to reform.
Some call it to remain south of Florida, one ventures it more north, and yet another calls for slow erattic movement up the east coast of Florida a bit and back down. In other words, there is too much divergence to take any stock in those at the moment.
If so, it will be close enough to Florida to watch for strengthening. The area it is venturing toward may be allow it to develop. There is dry air near it, which brings enough of a check from having it strengthen too much, if it does at all. At least until it gets into the Gulf.
The chance for redevelopment of TD#10 by tomorrow night:
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------------*---------]
Beyond that, the waves off Africa haven't looked as impressive as they were a few days ago, but the core convection has persisted, so we may eventually have to watch that as well, although out to sea is the most likely ultimate track for that.
It has broken away and spans a fairly large area still. It does have the potential to develop several days down the road, but will most likely remain out to sea.
See Clark's blog entry below for more detailed discussion.
Event Related Links
General Links
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
T.S. Jose
Animated model plots of T.S. Jose
Mexican Radar
Invest 97L
NRL-Monterey Satellite Data on 97L
METEOSAT-8 imagery over Europe & Africa from the Univ. of Wisconsin
Animated model plots of 97L
Invest 99L
Visible Floater Satellite of 99L
Visible Satellite Floater of 99L With storm track overlays
Animated model plots of 99L
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 06:15 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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XTD10 is really starting to flare up a whole lot.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 06:18 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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I imagine the main reason the models are so inconsistent is because they aren't sure where the real center of the "wave" is and in this case location is everything. Question remains...where is the surface low? Where you start the models makes a big difference on where they end up. Can't wait to see what if anything recon finds. Nice blow up, begs attention.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 06:38 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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Big flareup of convection this am with SE Bahamas Trop Wave. Hard to tell but it looks like a circulation just to the west of the big blob of TS off the NE coast of Cuba. A couple of this mornings model runs are really scary. The 00Z CMC, whic has been forecasting a rapid deepening in the GOM once the system crosses S FL, creates a major hurricane in the eastern GOM and then tracks it north along the west coast of FL into the panhandle. Now the 00Z UKMET has jumped on board with a bombout in the eastern GOM too. The track seems to be getting better in focus with a closed circulation forming in the western bahamas drifting to the SE FL coast, across the southern tip of the peninsula and into the SE GOM. The 00Z NOGAPs supports this track. Yesterdays 18Z GFS did also but the 00Z GFS loses the system. All in all, gonna get real interesting the rest of this week.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cg...;hour=Animation
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cg...;hour=Animation
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 07:04 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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Just when everyone thought it was too quiet, a storm forms yesterday, possibly another today and yet another tomorrow. Here we go in to the heart of the season. Local t.v. showed viper system tracking the storm through the keys and into the gulf with very heavy rains especially in SW Florida.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 07:09 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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[moved from old thread]
Ok, NHC is very late in getting their 5am TWO up...given that it is almost 7am now...wonder what is going on? TWD from about 4.5 hours ago says there is a new wave off Africa. Yet another one to watch! Plus a wave over central America and another out in the Carribean...in addition to X-TD10 and 97L.
97L - Looking at IR:
97L Looks VERY good. It looks like it has consolidated down to a central spin, and appears to have a comma-shape with good circulation and banding to it. It has also shrunk in size, no longer the huge blob that it was, it is now a much smaller more defined system.
There hasn't been a Dvorak reading on it in about 5 hours, but what the satellite animation shows is it getting its act together in just the past 6 hours. I'd expect a decent classification soon. This might be why NHC hasn't gotten their TWO up - perhaps they are waiting on information about 97L?
Models are still inconistant on the strength and track of 97L, but they should become better once we see a TD out there. Whether it turns to sea or keeps westward is still unknown, but the models seem to think a turn to sea is likely.
I'm going to take a wild guess and say we might have a cyclone out there today just based on the IR sat.
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X-TD10:
Again, the IR presentation is very good this morning, though I'm not seeing rotation to the signature. Again the models are highly divergent on what exactly it will do, with some strengthening it and some ignoring it. Again, once (if) it makes a TD it should get better model guidance. This is still a wait-and-see system, though I expect we'll have a cyclone within a few days.
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Any met: why have the GFDL models for 97L on both PSU and FSU been all missing images? NOAA has to be running the models or they wouldn't be listed, but why isn't there any data on those websites?
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 07:14 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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Well, NHC just posted their TWO timestamped 5:30am. Someone forgot to upload it?
They aren't mentioning much about 97L other than it has organized better since their last update. Seems conservative given the Satellite signature I'm seeing.
For X-TD10: "AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY." (Source: TWO)
--RC
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 07:15 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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We could use some rain here in SW Florida, but not to the extent that the CMC and UKMET are showing, that's for sure!
To Daniel, yes I saw the CMC this morning. Three storms all in a row! However, since that model has not impressed me much this year, I'm not putting too much stock in that solution.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 07:19 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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Yeah, I just checked CMC. I usually ignore it since it doesn't do too well with tropical systems (overstrenthening them), but I have to say, it looks impressive.
It takes X-TD10 to a strong system into the gulf and 97L to a strong system sitting out at sea. Meanwhile it builds a THIRD system off the Bahamas and sends it north. It is the only model does does anything off the Bahamas.
I wonder if it is accurate on this or not? I'd say no, but this has already been a wild hurricane season so anything's possible.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 07:26 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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New GFS model run out:
I'm not liking what it does with X-TD10. It follows the LBar track on Skeetobite's graphic, heading into the east coast of FL, hovering over FL, then bouncing off and heading back into the Atlantic and up the eastern seaboard toward NC. EEP!
It also spins 97L out to sea, but it develops the wave behind 97L into something that heads toward the Carribean at a very rapid spead, reaching the Lesser Antillies in 6-7 days! That seems almost too fast for any sort of development, but it bears watching nonetheless.
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Also, quite an impressive sat photo of 97L over at NRL!
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Also, NRL is tracking 9 systems, either formed or invests, between the Pacific and the Atlantic. Wow.
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Also, take a look at the latest satelite Wind readings from 97L.
(sorry about so many posts in a row...but I keep seeing more stuff to post on!
)
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 07:31 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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Was just about to post about the GFS when I saw yours. I'm not liking it either, especially since I am in Daytona. Knowing how these models change every day
makes me feel a lot better tho. The third system out on the GFS run.... not only
is if fast, but very far south, then further south, then moving more north. I hope any
CV system doesnt run that far south that long, it makes it easier for it to reach the U.S.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 07:36 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUCU.html
Wind from the SSW (210 degrees) at 10 MPH (9 KT)
Visibility 5 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Weather Towering cumulus clouds observed
Temperature 86 F (30 C)
Heat index 96.8 F (36.0 C)
Dew Point 77 F (25 C)
Relative Humidity 74%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.88 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
ob MUCU 222053Z 21009KT 9000 SCT020TCU 30/25 Q101
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUGT.html
Wind from the S (190 degrees) at 12 MPH (10 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Temperature 89 F (32 C)
Heat index 96 F (36 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 62%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.97 in. Hg (1015 hPa
I think we will see the circulation form close to Eastern Cuba.
Somewhere between Santiago De Cuba, Oriente, and Moa Military , Cuba
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:09 AM |
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Disreguard the previous links.
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I didn't notice the "time stamp" was wrong.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:10 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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Noticed on the CMC & Nogaps at around the 96hr time that the high over the Mid Atlantic area begins to move out toward the NE. If this happened this might would allow for #10 or what ever it will be at that time, to begin to get caught up in a more of a sw flow that could set up over the Fl east coast and push it more to the n-ne like that of Irene only a lot closer to the coast.This may explain the reasoning behind the new GFS run. I believe this will also depend on it strength and the speed of the system. A faster pace would allow it to get to the GOM, whereas a slower more erratic pace might would allow it to get caught up in some kind of flow from the sw. Just my thoughts this morning based on the new GFS run and overall patterns from earlier this season. J.C.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:15 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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This was the 4:39am from the HPC:
CONSIDERING THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE AND TPC TROPICAL
WEATHER OUTLOOK THAT INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE FEATURE NEAR THE BAHAMAS IN THE SHORT RANGE
PERIOD... THE GFS APPEARS TOO WEAK WITH THE SYSTEM THAT MAY EMERGE
INTO THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
PRELIM PROGS DEPICT YDAYS FCST BASED ON COORDINATION WITH TPC...
AND DAY 7 EXTRAPOLATION. THROUGH DAY 5 THIS TRACK IS REASONABLY
CLOSE TO THE NEW 00Z NOGAPS... AND 00Z UKMET ASIDE FROM TIMING
DIFFS. LAST 2 ECMWF RUNS AND 00Z CANADIAN SHOW TRACKS FARTHER TO
THE RIGHT.
How do I see the canadian tracks? Anyone know?
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:19 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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same place u found the nogaps, it is at the top
CMC
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:36 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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Color me technologically impaired, but I can't get any animation on this link:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
What settings should I use for initial time, field, and hours to get it to work?
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:37 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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Ahhh, still learning all the model pages. Normally I use this one: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
Also, I'm stll learning the abbreviations.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:38 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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I couldn't get it to work until I clicked the faster then fwd button. May work for you too.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:42 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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when you open one of those models, scroll over to the right and hit forward
that should do it
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:43 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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Check out the Canadian at 144 hrs, I think they are wayyyy too "out there"
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:44 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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Quote:
Ahhh, still learning all the model pages. Normally I use this one: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/
Also, I'm stll learning the abbreviations.
Thanks for the link, didn't have that one
The two I usually use are:
Penn State University: http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/ (GFS, NOGAPS, GFDL, CMC, and WRF)
Florida State University: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ (GFS, NOGAPS, GFDL, CMC, UMKET, and MM5)
To make them work:
1. You have to have JavaScript enabled (this is default on all browsers, so unless you changed it you don't have to worry)
2. Click the "FWD" button after it finishes loading the images (you'll know when your Firefox/IE loading logo stops animating).
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:48 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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Visible imagery would appear to suggest that something may be forming just off the eastern coast of Cuba about midway between Cuba and Great Inagua, Bahamas. Certainly a strong convective flareup and evidence of decent outflow.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:50 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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Hey Rich,
Do you have some co-ords close so I can take a peek? Please
I always seem to have a hard time finding the centers this early
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 08:55 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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Quote:
Visible imagery would appear to suggest that something may be forming just off the eastern coast of Cuba about midway between Cuba and Great Inagua, Bahamas. Certainly a strong convective flareup and evidence of decent outflow.
I agree, Rich, looking at the IR SAT (not always good to detect circulations), I see a CC spin about 21N-74.5W in the general location u described. Looks to be moving slowly W-NW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:04 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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Difficult to locate a possible LLCC with this one, especially as it may not even be there. I would guess looking at the visible imagery, that if there is a centre it is probably somewhere around 21.1'N 74.9'W. However, the low level cloudlines dont give much support to there being a LLCC in this region, so it may be just at the mid-levels at the moment.
Also noticed that our friend 97L has a LLCC in the vicinty of 17.5'N 36.8'W. However, the convection is removed to the east of this centre. Certainly something else worth watching though
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:08 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
10 T-Numbers
23/1145 UTC 21.3N 74.1W T1.0/1.0 10
23/0615 UTC 20.8N 73.2W TOO WEAK 10
22/2345 UTC 20.7N 72.9W TOO WEAK 10
97LINVEST T-numbers
23/1145 UTC 17.1N 36.2W T1.5/1.5 97
23/0600 UTC 17.1N 35.0W TOO WEAK 97
22/2330 UTC 16.8N 33.9W TOO WEAK 97
22/1730 UTC 17.0N 32.6W TOO WEAK 97
22/1200 UTC 16.1N 31.2W TOO WEAK 97
22/0600 UTC 14.1N 27.3W TOO WEAK 97L
Looks like 10 and 97's T-number are on the rise 97 could beat 10 to an named storm. Here is the site I got my info from though.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
I think we will have TD 12 by 11 and 10 redevloped at 5
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:15 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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Ship Report at 12z:
MANE 12 21.5 -74.4 250 19.0 - - - 29.87
Location at 21.5N 74.4W reports WSW wind at 19kts.
Getting some confirmation on maybe a LLC developing.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:32 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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sorry for the stupid question but what is the Storm Floater 2 on? Do you think they may change it today to something that I personally would find more interesting?..LOL!
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:39 AM |
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Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
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I think that is what is left of extratropical system of Irene. On the storm floater2.
what's left of irene is up near greenland. that's just someone being lazy and not retraining the floater on something interesting to look at. unless partly to mostly cloudy skies in the north atlantic is buzzworthy... -HF
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 09:43 AM |
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visibles
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that wind report kinda checks out with what i can see down there. there's an elongated closed low just north and west (around 22/75) the deep convection. i didn't expect it, but it looks like that upper low has strengthened to the northeast and is infusing dry air in from the north... around 15kt of shear again, too. synoptic pattern still favors this thing developing, but it's going to do it slowly. center might redevelop to the east or south as just to the east there's a diffluent outflow/shortwave ridge region.
soi has dropped negative again the last couple of days... as long as it keeps doing that the upper lows in the basin are going to keep harrassing nearby features.
away east, 97L had its t-rating jump from too weak to 1.5. that's just a function of the convective ball that started clining to the east side overnight.. the system probably isn't generating much different winds than before. it's the equivalent of a 25-30kt depression right now... the nhc doesn't like to classify these until they have a persistent convective core; this one is marginal (depend's who's making the calls, really). they'll probably do it at 11. no reason not to; it's very likely to be a tropical storm tomorrow.
HF 1343z23august
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:03 AM |
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What the H@#%
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None of these Operation Centers are showing current Info.
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUMO.html
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUBA.html
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUGT.html
Sur would be helpful to see current conditions down there.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:08 AM |
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Re: What the H@#%
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What time is Recon spose to be in TD10 to see if it has devloped and which do you think any mod/met will form first 10 or 97.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:22 AM |
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Circulation
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Question:
Is this a LLC forming between Baracoa, Oriente, Cuba and Great Inagua?
And a UL forming just NE of San Salvador?
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:29 AM |
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Re: Circulation
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I detected what might appear to be a LLC or some kind of vortex around 22.8 and 74.9 on the GOES vis sat loop
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:29 AM |
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Re: Circulation
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Water Temperature Map Link
Right now xtd10 is about to cross over into 90 degree water temps.This could develope it rather quickly,as long as it does not move faster than expected.I just don't want to be caught off quard.Things are really picking up!
Modified image to link (See rules about Inline Images) - Mike C.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:30 AM |
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Re: What the H@#%
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?
Noname,
most all of the answers to your questions can be found on the websites linked
from this site. You can find the recon info to the left and also other info
under storm links. Once you have these pages, save them to your favorites, this
way you can get to them quickly next time.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:34 AM |
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Re: Circulation
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another good sat loop link that hints of the LLC developing and moving off to the wnw...
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:49 AM |
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99L
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What we were calling Ex-TD 10 has been designated 99L Invest as per NRL.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:50 AM |
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Re: Circulation
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Navy calling XTD10 99L
25 knot winds at 22.1 74.7
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...es&DISPLAY=
beat to the punch again lol
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:52 AM |
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Re: Circulation
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that's pretty close to where I had it, perhaps a tad south... really hard to pinpoint the exact center but I do believe an LLC is in development at this time and this system is moving w to wnw at the present moment... and GOM bound perhaps...
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:53 AM |
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Re: Circulation
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Why do they have two names for it now this is getting more crazy and confusing by the moment.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 10:56 AM |
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Re: Circulation
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http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
this shows it real close to 23/75 i think
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 11:02 AM |
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Re: Circulation
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Quote:
Why do they have two names for it now this is getting more crazy and confusing by the moment.
Basicly They probably had some discussions and decided that there wasn't enough of xTD10 remaining in the new system to keep the designation. So if it goes to TD status, it will be TD11 (or 12).
I can understand the call, Tangentially, does anyone have any information that details the continuation of the name "Ivan"? It's a interesting compare to TD 10.
-Mark
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 11:08 AM |
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Re: Circulation
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
Zoom in a bit and you can see 1) a circulation, 2) WNW movement
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 11:15 AM |
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Re: Circulation
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Does anyone else think NHC will upgrade this before 5 I think will do like what they did with Jose yesterday and declare it TD10 or maybe 12 at noon.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 11:15 AM |
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Re: Circulation
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Yes, 99L (ex td10) is looking better and better on sat image, or is that worse and worse? lol I guess it depends on your point of view. Anyway, it is becoming
better organized it seems to me. Will be interesting to see what recon sends
back this afternoon
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 11:20 AM |
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Re: Circulation
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Once they NHC change the Invest to 99L no longer concerned XTD10, it will be listed as a new TD 12 if it makes a TD or TS .
Dave
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 11:21 AM |
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Re: Circulation
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Here's the "official" line on Ivan from the NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004ivan.shtml?
(Scroll down towards the bottom of "Synoptic History," where it details being able to track Ivan as an entity through the entire process.)
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 11:22 AM |
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Re: Circulation
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i checked the models, and ALL of them develop 10L/99L or whatever into a fairly decent system within 96 hours; even the nogaps and ukmet, which never develop anything, are developing this one (i do find it ironic though that the nogaps, with its missing frames, is full of gaps
)i'm now able to see a closed circulation at least at cloud level on visible images somewhere near 22N/75W
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 11:27 AM |
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Re: Circulation
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From 11:30 TWO
THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS... AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS...
THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
| Jekyhe904 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 11:33 AM |
|
Re: Circulation
|
I see that it looks to be improving but this looks like a very complex situation with still a lot of dry air and an upper low northeast of 99L moving west in tandem with the system. Looks like its going to be constantly struggling IMHO. Comments/corrections welcome. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 11:42 AM |
|
Re: Circulation
|
Just a head up that the referring of exTD10 as 99L is causing a lot of headaches with the automated plotting here, so You may want to use the old TD#10 for model animations (Under coordinates on the left) until this is fixed.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 11:49 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Circulation
|
This Tropical weather site has TD12?????????????????????????
http://weather.net-waves.com/td12.php
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 11:51 AM |
|
|
|
Re: QuikSCAT
|
http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dataimages21/cur_hires/zooms/WMBas87.png
If these are surface winds and the snap shot was taken at around 10:00 Zulu, then am I seeing most of a circulation visible? About the only thing I can't find is a southerly wind. hmmm...
You can also see some 30Kt winds in and near the center, along with some uncontaminated 40Kt winds in the rain band to the east.
Now is the rain band to the east considered a part of 99L? (it is 99L now, right? *laughs* my apologies, on even less sleep than normal).
-Mark
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 11:57 AM |
|
|
Re: Circulation
|
99L - thumbnail will update automatically when models are run under this identifier
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 12:01 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Circulation
|
Quote:
This Tropical weather site has TD12?????????????????????????
http://weather.net-waves.com/td12.php
A little ahead of the game, but AL992005 (99L) will indeed become TD12 if it achieves Tropical Depression status. It may even grow up and get a name...
Much debate will likely occur over this, like last year when the remnants of Ivan reorganized. John Q. shouldn't care about the naming conventions, it just becomes an issue for the hardcore to debate.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 12:14 PM |
|
Re: Circulation
|
Recon has left and is en route to the area now, hopefully in an hour or so we'll know more about the Bahamas area.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 12:26 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Circulation
|
Here Is one of there Messages already I think it is the bahama flight. Also can someone decode this for me I've tried and I get confused every time I tryed using there decoding and it is confusing huh.
RECCO Observations (tropical cyclone)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
URNT11 KNHC 231603
97779 16004 30268 82900 70100 99005 65721 /5762
RMK AF300 01GGA INVEST OB 03
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 12:31 PM |
|
Re: Circulation
|
Really don't care what they call it, its the NHC's call. What I am Concerned with is that most of the models don't develop this for another 48 hours, and I believe we will have Katrina by then. I am basing this on the visible satellite pix, relaxation of the shear, and current organizational trands. LCC seems to be coming together now and we should have a depression by 11 pm. This raises a few questions regarding its path and strength. I believe it will strengthen a bit faster than the models have been depicting, and that in itself may only play a small role in its track, however its general movement has been to the WNW/NW, and the right outliers (NAM and GFDL) may have a better idea (hate to agree with the LBAR) than the previous guidance, if only by shear luck! But I see this thing making a Northwesterly track for a day, then bending back to the WNW or west Thursday and Friday, ultimately ending up in the GOM. Its strength and WHERE it crosses is of interest for those in south and maybe even south central Florida in the near term. I'm glad recon is going out now to get a good read on this one. I don't believe the models have a good handle on it yet. They really couldn't, since no center is there to initialize on. Watching this one like a hawk. Cheers!! PS: This is not a official forecast; NHC does that.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 12:32 PM |
|
Re: Circulation
|
It'll be interesting to see what the plane finds. The ULL to the north of the possible surface low has developed some weak convection around its center and appears to be trying to wrap some of the convection to the south around its east side. That may end up becoming the dominant feature with respect to any tropical (or subtropical) development. It may take awhile for this whole thing to consolidate into an organized tropical system, if it does at all.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 12:33 PM |
|
|
Re: Circulation
|
>>This Tropical weather site has TD12?????????????????????????
TD #11 became Jose so this would indeed be TD #12.
Steve
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 12:34 PM |
|
Re: Circulation
|
Where is the main circulation? Looks like one north around 72w 25n and one south around 73w 22n. The one north looks to be entrenched with some dry air while the one south has more of a moist enviroment. The north circulation seems to be heading NW while the south circulation seems to be heading slowly WNW.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 12:38 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Circulation
|
OB 03
Time: 1600Z
Position: 26.8 north // 82.9 West
Flight Level: 7010 meters
FL Winds: n/a
Temp/Dewpoint (C): -15/-22
Weather: Scattered clouds
400 Millibar Height: 7620 meters
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 12:45 PM |
|
Re: Circulation
|
Models have now updated: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_99.gif
Appears landfall west of the Miss. is unlikely. I'll be curious to see the runs later on when they have info from recon. Would not suprise me in the least to see this upgraded today.
Also for those wondering, the floater is off of Jose and onto the area in the Bahamas now.
I feel that another noteworthy development is the fact that the 12z GFS develops the system curently exiting Africa and takes it in the general direction of the islands in about 8 days. 06 runshowed a storm in just about the same location in 16 days (which would be a 3rd system). Obviously the long range models are only a step above the trusty magic 8 ball, but this does seem to show an unsettling pattern developing.
GFS
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 12:46 PM |
|
|
Re: Circulation
|
The north circulation is the upper level low. This may slow down any development of the LLC which looks to be forming around n22-75
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 12:51 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Circulation
|
Maybe this is what you meant, but that plot on the GFS going much further south,
is the wave just about to exit the coast. The other one, further west, moves up and out per the GFS
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 12:52 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Circulation
|
Big red, here's the latest runs that I found on the SFWMD site. Looks like I have more recent UKMET and GFDL runs while your link has more recent BAM & LBAR runs.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_10.gif
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 12:59 PM |
|
Re: Circulation
|
Thanks Ron, with so many names, I guess it may take them awhile to get the plots sorted. Unfortunately, we look to be in the crosshairs on all of them. I wouldn't book a tee time this weekend...
New Watcher, thanks for catching that. I will go back and edit my post accordingly.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 01:02 PM |
|
Re: Circulation
|
Not wishcasting here, but if it does get named, they will name it after me, Katrina. How cool is that? I think it is. My name is not that common. Any ways, we'll wait and see what happens.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 01:04 PM |
|
Re: Circulation
|
Bastardi is gonna go nuts if N.O. gets in the cone.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 01:09 PM |
|
|
|
JB
|
Is he not posting his Tropical Update anymore on Yahoo?
http://weather.yahoo.com/vidindex/index.html
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 01:12 PM |
|
|
|
Re: JB
|
Dunno, I havent been able to get it for a week now, and am certainly not gonna
pay for it.
| Hootowl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 01:32 PM |
|
Re: Circulation
|
Is this the vortex message from 99L recon or have I stumbled on something old???
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT2.shtml?
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 01:34 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Circulation
|
no those coords are from jose early this a.m.
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 01:35 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Circulation
|
That was a message from Jose I dont know if Recon is in there yet but I know there on there way does anyone know how close they are yet?
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 01:40 PM |
|
Re: Circulation
|
Recon will likely be in and surveying the area around 3PM eastern, and a little before that. 2-3PM
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 01:43 PM |
|
|
Re: Circulation
|
What are the chances of the fromer TD10 becoming a major storm before it hits land in South Fla and or the Keys? The system is moving really slow.....will it have time to strengthen into something big??
| VolusiaMike |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 01:43 PM |
|
|
Re: Circulation
|
last message I see from recon (via Hurtrack) was at 1632 UTC, at 25.8N 80.2W.
Hopefully be getting some reading from within the system soon...
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 01:44 PM |
|
Re: JB
|
You guys need to not rely on the dynamical models. They change from run to run more so then the global models. I look at them for entertainment only. Best model to use (I feel) is the Nogaps. Others though will perform well with 1 or another storm during a season. If you look at what the Nogaps and somewhat combine the GFS,UKMET and Canadian and put a plot between them,, you will have a decent forecast. The FSU model ( not mm5 ) is decent as well. Anyways you need to look at the whole picture and enviroment data also to combine what a model might not see changing before its next run.
Right now with what could be TD12 it looks like this mornings burst might of given it life. Its burst was enhanced by a midlow over N Cuba and another to its NE. A weak low near 1010mb formed near 22.4N and 74.8W. Its movement is to the WNW with a bend to the NNW later tomorrow. It should become a TS in the next day or 2.
Im not changing my projected path ( although for florida it could go eigther way) but its going to be hard. I still expect it to be near Nassau later tomorrow and just N of Grand Bahama or 50-100 miles east of Verobeach, Fl by Friday morning. It should miss the trough and move back west or even wsw and cross the state late Friday into Saturday between WPB and the Cape. Could be a weak hurricane by then. It should move into the gulf later on Saturday between Venice and Clearwater. Movement will be slow. After that the guess would be a turn to the N and head up towards the Panhandle but that is more then 5days out. Further strengthning should be expected.
This path will be simular to Erin almost a decade ago but not exactly (of course).
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 01:46 PM |
|
Re: Circulation
|
The latest RECCO ob at 1725Z (1:25 ET) had the aircraft at 23.0 N, 76.1 W.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 01:48 PM |
|
Re: Circulation *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 01:54 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Circulation
|
NHC moved floater 1 over to 99L and floater 2 over to 97L
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 01:56 PM |
|
Re: Circulation
|
Initial Recco observations seem to support at least a tropical depression, however I'm going to wait a bit to make sure. A circulation hasn't been found yet.
| VolusiaMike |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 01:56 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Circulation
|
If you are referring to the recon flight information, I get it from a subscription program called Hurtrack. It takes all the information from NHC and provides it in graphic format. Also provides recon flight data as received and publishes it on a map so you can see where they are...
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 01:56 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Circulation
|
You can find Recon Messeges at the NHC website and go to the left in the blue You will find Aircraft Recon in the Storm info area.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 02:08 PM |
|
Re: Circulation
|
So far, the recon appears to traversing the circulation in a counterclockwise manner, flying from the west side of the storm around to the south side now. I'd place the center around 22N/74W -- still somewhat disorganized, maybe not entirely closed off but getting there -- generally drifting WNW. A microwave imager pass from earlier today suggested low-level banding features beginning to develop; the infrared & visible satellite images are beginning to catch up to that. Still broad and overall relatively weak, but it's got warm waters and low shear ahead of it. Scottsvb's post a little while ago pretty much sums up my track thinking for this one -- maybe a bit further south than Erin 1995 and in line with the UKMET & GFDL runs earlier today -- with intensity still up in the air. Interests in both Florida and the northern Gulf east of New Orleans need to watch this one.
The first two reports I have from near the storm suggest flight level winds on the west side of the storm of about 25kt and sea level pressures near 1010mb. It'll depend upon what they find on the east side of the system -- and whether there is definitively a closed low or not -- as to whether or not we have a TD at 5pm.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 02:13 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Circulation
|
Here's a nice high resolution VIS SAT of the bahamas system.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html
| Floridacane |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 02:21 PM |
|
|
Re: Circulation
|
I happened to stumble across this collection of models from Penn State. They call it the electronic wall. Looks to have almost every model on there so you won't have to jump around from different websites looking for something. They even have satellites, visible and IR.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/ewall.html
Sorry if this is in the wrong area mods!
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 02:29 PM |
|
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
|
Sounds like if former TD 10 gets into the Gulf it would eventually landfall on the east gulf coast, and not head more west towards Louisiana or Texas, correct? When will they have a better handle on where the storm will track if it does become a depression/storm?
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 02:35 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Jose's Landfall and Former Tropical Depression 10
|
99L keeps disappearing from the NRL list anytime you click something on the site--i have a feeling they are in the process of changing it and we may have TD12
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 02:39 PM |
|
Different area of low pressure...
|
Recon is reporting that the area of low pressure with the depression is not where satellite estimates had it pegged and is instead further north, at 23.5N or so. This places the center underneath a new band of curved convection forming SE of San Salvador and east of Rum Cay.
I expect this storm to be upgraded to a tropical depression at 5pm based upon the findings of a definitive closed center of low pressure. As recon has traversed the storm in a counterclockwise pattern, winds have come from the west-southwest on the southern side of the storm to the east on the north side of the circulation. Winds on the eastern side of the storm have been measured as high as 37kt at flight level (which here is about 240m ~ 750-800ft above the surface), with a pressure of about 1010mb. Given these reports, I estimate this will be a 30kt depression -- or, if it continues to organize -- Tropical Storm Katrina -- at 5pm. Still waiting on the first vortex report from the recon, but that isn't due until closer to 3pm as I recall.
Oh yeah -- 97L -- indications are that the low-level center may be reforming near a mid-level center embedded underneath the deep convection near 17.5N/35.5W. Despite lacking convection for quite some time, this storm has maintained excellent low-level banding features and now appears to be taking that next step towards development. It probably won't beat the Bahamas disturbance as I thought last night, but I do expect this to become a tropical storm before it gets to 45W...perhaps even 40W if the center is indeed reforming underneath the deep convection. Probably won't be upgraded at 5pm, but might at 11p if trends continue.
Got a feeling this place is going to get active again in quite a hurry...
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 02:41 PM |
TD 12
|
Now officially a TD
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005
...TWELFTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE SEASON FORMING OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIADSAAT+shtml/231837.shtml?
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 02:44 PM |
|
Re: TD 12
|
I put up a new main page article on this because it'll be getting a lot of attention soon. I don't expect much out of it, but it will be interesting to track.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 02:45 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Different area of low pressure...
|
HPC confirms Clark's thinking on the system.
From this afternoons NWS HPC Extended Weather discussion:
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
218 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2005
VALID 12Z FRI AUG 26 2005 - 12Z TUE AUG 30 2005
FINAL MEDIUM RANGE DISCUSSION...
TO THE SOUTH OF THESE HIGHER LAT ANOMALIES...MID LEVEL HTS ARE
FCST TO BE NEAR NORMAL IN A FLAT RIDGE ACRS THE SRN TIER OF THE
NATION. THE STRENGTH OF THIS RIDGE AND THE DEGREE OF WEAKENESS IN
IT WL BE CRUCIAL FOR THE TRACK OF THE AREA OF TROPICAL WEATHER
INVOF THE BAHAMAS THAT MAY AFFECT FL AND THE NERN AND NCNTRL GULF
THIS PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE MED RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATE THIS
LOW MOVG ACRS THE SRN PORTION OF THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO THE ERN
GULF BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT CONTS ON THE S SIDE OF THE WEAK UPR
RIDGE. THE GFS CONTS TO BE ON THE RT HAND SIDE OF THE MODEL SOLNS
IN SHOWING A TRACK ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FL FRI-SUN AND THEN
ALONG THE SERN COAST MON-TUE. THE ONE THING ALL THE MODELS DO
AGREE ON IS THAT THERE WL BE EVENTUAL WEAKENESS IN THIS UPR RIDGE
FROM THE STREAM OF STRONG SYSTEMS PUSHING IN THE NRN STREAM ALONG
THE U.S./CAN BORDER. THIS WOULD THEN SUPPORT A MORE NWD COMPONENT
TO THE TRACK AND POSSIBLE EFFECTS FOR THE ERN GULF COAST. THE
LATEST MED RANGE PROGS ARE FOLLOWING THE TPC PREFERRED AND MODEL
CONSENSUS SOLN...ALBEIT SLOWER...IN PUSHING ACRS SCNTRL FL
FRI-SAT (DAYS 3-4)..INTO THE ERN GULF BY SUN (DAY 5). AT THIS
POINT THE ADVERTISED WEAKNESS IN THE E-W RIDGE ALONG THE GULF
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE NWD COMPONENT TO THE TRACK...WITH A
THREAT FOR THE CNTRL TO ERN GULF COASTAL AREA BY THE BEGINNNING OF
NEXT WEEK. SEE LATEST TPC DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST UPDATES ON THIS
STORMS POTENTIAL.
| troy2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 02:45 PM |
|
Re: Different area of low pressure...
|
Wave out east is lookin better. TD12 on the horizon (literally and figuratively),...yep gonna get busy around here...
Havent been on yet this season. Shuttle's been keepin me busy...
hello everyone
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 02:46 PM |
|
|
|
Re: TD 12
|
so am i right to assume that if an invest disappears off of NRL that it is about to be changed to a TD then ? (unless of course it is dissipating which this one isnt)
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 02:47 PM |
|
Re: Different area of low pressure...
|
good obs clark,, hard to go against recon but I dont see it. LOL. I think they found a vortex in the main flow. I think the center is down more near 22.8N and near 75W.
Reasons comparing are there is nothing on the recon to show a closed low up there ( maybe just a vortex swirl) while the one near 22.8 clearly shows a rotation with a wsw,sse and ene wind. I guess Ill see if recon outdoes me. Just to note people,,recon is the best source of info, so this is just my speculation,,its probably that there are many vortexs in a broad circulation on a developing system. Anyways thanks Clark for the update on the recon.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 02:52 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Different area of low pressure...
|
this is likely developing in a similar manner to Arlene earlier in the year in that when it first formed there was a closed circulation, but no difinitive swirl or center, but instead a broad disorganized rotation
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 03:08 PM |
|
Re: Different area of low pressure...
|
new thread is up,,go to that forum
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 23 2005 03:18 PM |
|
|
|
agree with scott
|
they are the official source but would rather go with the lower center down near cuban coast, really see that as the one that is pulling this.. maybe recon cant go there as part of it is over cuban air force? are there any issues here.. know they allow the gulfstream jet but not the recon..
either way...
can't believe they up the numbers but calling this #12 not 10 because it is clearly still 10 and know the old days of Bob Sheets that would never have flown