MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 10:41 PM |
Hurricane Warnings Up Vero South to Florida City
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11:00AM
Katrina is now a 60mph tropical storm, with the potential to intensify into a minimal hurricane over the next few hours before it makes landfall in southern Florida near midnight tonight. A recent reconnaisance report suggests that the pressure with the storm is lower -- now 990mb -- with flight level winds of 60kt on the S side and 55kt on the N side of the storm. They'll be providing reports throughout the day, so stay tuned for the latest.
6:30AM
There is some good news this morning regarding Katrina's intensity, as far as getting beyond much more than a category one hurricane. However, this still leaves south Florida with an approaching storm.
(We and Skeetobite are looking for feedback on maps, let us know here)
Katrina has not shaken the dry air intrusion like it appeared it might last night, keeping the storm a Tropical Storm, and reducing the chance for rapid strengthening a great deal. It looks like the forecast will hold as a minimal Category 1 hurricane at this time. It still has the chance to develop during the day. Mainly due to radar presentation
The track looks good, although the National Hurricane Center admits the error for direct landfall could be anywhere from slightly north of the current track all the way to the Keys. Some features may want to bend the system back south a bit, while others would trend it more north. This is important since the storm is forecast to slow forward movement during the day. The entire warning area still needs to prepare for the system.
More to come during the day...
Report conditions in your area/read other folks reports at this link(Registration not required):p/url]
Original Update
Katrina has strengthened some tonight, and is moving more west northwest tonight.
It is expected to slow down and strengthen some more.
Hurricane Warnings are now up from Vero Beach to Florida City, including Lake Okeechobee.
Folks in the warning areas will need to prepare for the storm as soon as possible. I'd prepare for a Category 2 storm, even if it doesn't make it that high. The uncertainty with intensity is high enough to cause concern. Especially in Broward and Palm Beach counties. If you are in the warning areas, listen to local media and governmental agencies.
The current forecast track seems good, it did make the westerly turn earlier as expected, after elongating a bit and finding a real center. It's currently moving westward toward Florida, and the forward speed is expected to slow.
If the current National Hurricane Center forecast verfies it will place a 90MPH hurricane near Broward County Friday morning.
Convection around the center is high, and conditions are becoming more favorible for strengthening.
Other factors for strengthening include the relatively small core of the storm, and the slow movement across south Florida will put up a potential for floods as well.
Event Related Links
General Links
Report Katrina conditions in your area/read other folks reports at this link (Registration not required):p/url]
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Emergency Management/County info
Broward County Emergency Management
Palm Beach County emergency managment
Miami-Dade County Emergency Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Katrina
Google Map plot of Katrina
Visible Floater Satellite of Katrina
Water Vapor Floater of Katrina
Visible Satellite Floater of Katrina with storm track overlays
Animated model plots of Katrina
Spaghetti Model Plot of Katrina from Colorado State
Bahamas Radar
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Invest 97L
NRL-Monterey Satellite Data on 97L
METEOSAT-8 imagery over Europe & Africa from the Univ. of Wisconsin
Animated model plots of 97L
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 10:57 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up Vero South to Florida City
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Well, living in Ft Laud pretty much puts me in the direct path, and i'm preparing for a CAT 1 or maybe even 2. Gas stations around here are beginning to run out of gas already.
TG
| Miami Beach, FLA USA |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 10:58 PM |
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Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run
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On barrier island off Miami and concerned of this GFDL run mentioned by NHC, please give thoughts / comments?
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:02 PM |
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Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run
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Quote:
On barrier island off Miami and concerned of this GFDL run mentioned by NHC, please give thoughts / comments?
The GFDL shows a curve back to the southwest and down across the Florida keys, strengthening a great deal in the process, and then curving around Florida back into the Gulf. The initial position is already off, so I think it's fairly safe to toss that one out. The model spread is all over, from there to North Carolina. At this point there is no reason I can see to doubt the NHC's track over the next 24 hours.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:04 PM |
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Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run
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Quote:Quote:
On barrier island off Miami and concerned of this GFDL run mentioned by NHC, please give thoughts / comments?
The GFDL shows a curve back to the southwest and down across the Florida keys, strengthening a great deal in the process, and then curving around Florida back into the Gulf. The initial position is already off, so I think it's fairly safe to toss that one out. The model spread is all over, from there to North Carolina. At this point there is no reason I can see to doubt the NHC's track over the next 24 hours.
Not to say you are wrong but the NHC is paying very close attention to the GFDL model:
This forecast is rather difficult since one of the more
reliable models...the GFS...shows that the cyclone barely touches
the East Coast of Florida before moving northward....while the
outstanding GFDL moves Katrina south of due west across extreme
South Florida and the Keys as a very intense hurricane. The GFDL
scenario would be very dangerous for South Florida. This appears to
be unrealistic at this time but because of the good past
performance of this model...we must pay close attention to future
model runs.
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:05 PM |
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Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run
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Looks like the center of circulation is now visible on the Miami radar:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0Z_lp.shtml
It also looks like it is moving north of west as it gets better organized/defined.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:06 PM |
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Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run
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Quote:
Not to say you are wrong but the NHC is paying very close attention to the GFDL model:
This forecast is rather difficult since one of the more
reliable models...the GFS...shows that the cyclone barely touches
the East Coast of Florida before moving northward....while the
outstanding GFDL moves Katrina south of due west across extreme
South Florida and the Keys as a very intense hurricane. The GFDL
scenario would be very dangerous for South Florida. This appears to
be unrealistic at this time but because of the good past
performance of this model...we must pay close attention to future
model runs.
Aye, I think we can toss this particular run out, future ones are different. The next one should be more interesting. And I think the 24 hour track is pretty good, beyond that I have doubts. Just to clear that up.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:08 PM |
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Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run
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Quote:
On barrier island off Miami and concerned of this GFDL run mentioned by NHC, please give thoughts / comments?
Another angle for you. Depending on where you are on the island. You should be in the Right Front Quadrant...worst of the weather is usually there.
At what windspeed do they close the bridge?...Watch that angle too!
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:10 PM |
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Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run
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It appears that for that model to verify the ULL in the gulf and the ridge would both have to remain and basically draw the cyclone towards the WSW.
The GFDL is definitely an outlier here - its the only model showing this much influence of that weak ULL in the gulf - everything else seems to show that feature backing away and removing itself from the playing field.
I'd be warily watching this thing - if it looks to come anything south of west then be very concerned. Given that there's no consensus on this track I'd be prepared to act but not freak out at this point. The NHC is definitely paying attention to this solution but I wouldn't say they're endorsing it, and within the next 12 hours you should be able to determine if it looks like this is verifying or not. If the next GFDL update comes around to be more in line with consensus then you've got your answer.... likewise if other models start to shift south and west.
So long as motion isn't south of west I don't believe you're going to see the GFDL solution bear out.
Up here in the panhandle we're REALLY paying attention to that as well, because if that solution DOES verify then the odds of us getting a real pasting go WAY up. In fact, that particular model run and its potential to verify are basically what I'm watching in reference to the actual path of the storm in terms of attempting to calibrate the risk of it showing up in my back yard.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:12 PM |
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Welcome
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For those new to the boards, welcome! It's quite an active evening here -- we've had quite an active day already, with almost 300 posts in the course of the afternoon and evening hours. This will probably keep up through the weekend, but don't get lost or discouraged, say, if your post gets quickly sent back a page or two -- trust me, people are still reading it and a reply (if you asked a question) will be coming!
I hope you'll find the information here useful. Powered by Skeetobite's maps, users with a multitude of links and useful information, the professional meteorologists who post their thoughts here and on the blogs, and a leader (Mike) who puts a lot of time into making this site the best it can be, I think you'll find that Flhurricane.com/the CFHC has just about everything you need for informative and knowledgeable hurricane discussion. So please, feel free to jump into the conversation -- make sure you read the Forum Rules first, though! -- and welcome aboard.
The thoughts of many of the mets and other posters on this board can be found in this thread as well as the previous thread, in the blogs on the main page, and in the Storm Forum. Feel free to check those out and post a question if you have one, whether to the main board, appropriate thread, or via PM.
Those of you in the path of Katrina, please stay tuned to the NHC & local authorities for information regarding preparations and potential evacuations. The path and intensity of this storm as it crosses Florida and heads for the Gulf is still highly uncertain, making vigilence a key attribute at this time. We'll add information through the next few days to help you make those plans, but do remember -- always follow the advice of those in charge and recall that this site is an unofficial source.
Once again, welcome to those new to the boards -- and welcome back to those who haven't been here in awhile (however you may define it; for myself, it's 15 minutes; for others, it may be 15 months!).
-Clark
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:12 PM |
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Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run
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Quote:Quote:
Not to say you are wrong but the NHC is paying very close attention to the GFDL model:
This forecast is rather difficult since one of the more
reliable models...the GFS...shows that the cyclone barely touches
the East Coast of Florida before moving northward....while the
outstanding GFDL moves Katrina south of due west across extreme
South Florida and the Keys as a very intense hurricane. The GFDL
scenario would be very dangerous for South Florida. This appears to
be unrealistic at this time but because of the good past
performance of this model...we must pay close attention to future
model runs.
Aye, I think we can toss this particular run out, future ones are different. The next one should be more interesting. And I think the 24 hour track is pretty good, beyond that I have doubts. Just to clear that up.
I am in the same boat.I think the next 24 hrs they got right but IMO i dont think the track as it is now will stay the same across the state.I am going by the model runs i just seen on the TV where there were many GOOD models all over the map.There is no clear track like many storms so ALA charlie last year this storm could keep going when it hits the gulf or it may not even make it there.
I like the nogaps run as it tends to go along with the gdfl in going almost south of west before it hits the gulf.
But we shall see and i think some of the models still don't have a handle on it yet.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:14 PM |
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Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run
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Causeway bridges usually close at 50mph.
Sorry for the one-liner, but it's relevant.
Keep safe down South, guys.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:16 PM |
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Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run
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Considering that two of the normally reliable models seem to be out to lunch (the GFS and the GFDL), there is probably less confidence in the forecast track than there would normally be. The latest forecast track basically assumes that little will change from the present motion in the next 36 hours, which is a safe forecast when the model guidance is divergent.
It does bother me that the normally reliable GFDL paints such a grim scenario. The 18Z run begins to slow the storm down and drift it SW beginning around 06Z tonight. I guess we'll see how that pans out. The 00Z model runs should be telling, since those will be the first model runs where the center of the system was well defined at the initial time.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:20 PM |
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Re: Can someone advise of their thoughts of the GFDL run
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The forecast track is earily due west, straight toward Dania Beach (I start to think of the Dania Beach Hurricane roller coaster at Boomers along I-95 there) and then across the state. I'm not so sure the straight due west is going to happen. I rarely see that. But tomorrow is going to be one of those roller coaster days as far as Katrina is concerned.
Really, the hurricane warning area seems a bit large for a storm forecast to move due west. This isn't like charley where it was moving at an angle to the coast. I'd prepare either way in the warning area, even further north or south.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:22 PM |
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Bridges and Dvorak
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That type of one liner is Very Useful.
The bridges here usually close around 45 mph...as 50 is hard to handle a vehicle in.
I just checked the updated Dvorak numbers. Still at 3.1 .
However the eye temperature and the mean cloud temperature have Both dropped over the last hour.
0145Z-0245Z.
Eye cloud temp estimate is down 11.5C, and the mean cloud temp is down 7.4C.
This normally means that the storm is steady state or intensifying.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:29 PM |
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Re: Bridges and Dvorak
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any advice as far as for the tampa bay area....
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:29 PM |
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Re: Bridges and Dvorak
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clark or any other met what you think of the nogaps run? it was so good early in season and nobody talking about it now why? and what is your thought on it.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:31 PM |
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Re: Bridges and Dvorak
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which run?
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:35 PM |
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Re: Bridges and Dvorak
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the 12z run which is the only 1 i see right now.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:38 PM |
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Re: Bridges and Dvorak
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Also can anyone point me to a site which is free that i can see the latest Spagetti Model runs? i love to see them but only can find the boatus ones which are like 4 only.
Thanks.
========================================================
Set a record 20 posts in a row and no graveyard yah for me
don't push the signature ralph...
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:42 PM |
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Re: Bridges and Dvorak
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Come on Mommy !! You are on here every storm.. LOL.. Advise to Tampa Bay is keep an eye on this storm and stay vigilant !!!
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:45 PM |
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Re: Bridges and Dvorak
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ok yea im on here every storm but i havent been on in a while and i seen a storm is out there so i thought id ask....sorry for asking
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:46 PM |
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Recon
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The Captain has turned on the seat belt sign!
Recon is now airborne out of Biloxi.
Should be about 90 minutes before they start their fix.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:47 PM |
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Re: Bridges and Dvorak
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What are the chances of this storm crossing the state, then out to the Gulf than back across the northern part of the state exiting around Jax? I saw this on some of the earlier model runs this afternoon. Also...did they shift the 2nd landfall a little to the right as of the 11pm advisory?
Also...are there any scenarios that would have Katrina just brushing the entire west coast of Florida before making the 2nd landfall?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:48 PM |
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Re: Recon
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cant count that out yet but its a outliner due to its initial position of the system at 8am was west by 100 miles also it moves Katrina inland tomorrow afternoon moving wsw at 10mph,,,,I agree with its track but it will be slower,,and since its slower ,,, it would feel the trough come down later and move more along 83W.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:49 PM |
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Re: Bridges and Dvorak
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No one isn't talking about it...it's pretty much right down the middle and not far off of the model consensus. It's not an extreme solution, so it is going to get little publicity in an NHC discussion, in the media, or on a message board such as this. It's simple, down the middle, and is probably very close to being right.
The link that someone posted earlier -- http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png -- currently shows a clustering of the best dynamical & statistical models available right near Apalachicola, FL. This is pretty consistent with the NHC forecast, too, which shouldn't be a big surprise. Since 2001/2002, the GFDL and the NOGAPS have been the two best dynamical models...the GUNS/CONU consensus models have done even better...while the FSU Superensemble has been the best overall for two years (timing issues excluded). The NHC usually strays little from the Superensemble and the best models, and this is likely no exception.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:50 PM |
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Re: Bridges and Dvorak
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The Tampa area weather from Katrina will depend of course on how soon it makes it's turn to the North and if it is in the Gulf and how far out it gets. Obviously the closer it is to the West coast of Florida as it moves NW and then N, the more rain and wind you'll get in the Tampa Bay area.
Vigilance is not a bad thing to do. We're all watching and waiting to see what this tropical system will do.
I would at least take stock of your hurricane emergency items, water, food, batteries, medicines etc.
| Puig |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:51 PM |
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Re: Bridges and Dvorak
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Just noticed on the last IR Loop that the center of the storm has taken a jog to the NW instead of due W. Also heard that this jog to the north is temporary and the center could just as easily jog to the south before making landfall. Whats your takeon this? By the looks of this jog to the north Palm Beach would certainly be closer to the center.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:52 PM |
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Re: Recon
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I can agree with that but it also shows it coming ashore around the lake area and if it stays west like it is and goes across like the nhc says then its south of the nogaps.
I think this track is going to change a few times like charlie did before it is done with.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:55 PM |
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Re: Bridges and Dvorak
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If she stays on the same track think St. Pete and Clearwater could see 50 to 60 MPH.
Dave
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:56 PM |
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Re: Bridges and Dvorak
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If I am reading that right, the new GFDL continues the persistence of the wsw movement but right into central Dade county near Coral Gables/Coconut Grove area?
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:56 PM |
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Re: Recon
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Well, it still looks like a landfall where I sit.The worse part will be not having power for a while,I am thinking a week.I base that on past storms that did not even hit here.All schools are closed Thur. and Fri.I saw a very long line at a gas station near work,there was even a fight that the police had to break up.The NHC seems to be more sure of a hit here now.The big question is how strong will she be.I don't like the fact she will be over the gulf stream soon.I will try and give local conditions as long as I have power.Wish me luck.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:57 PM |
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Re: Bridges and Dvorak
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I wouldn't be too concerned about any wobbles unless they persist for awhile. It may have taken a jog to the north briefly, but the last 30 minutes or so it appears to have resumed a westward motion on radar.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 24 2005 11:58 PM |
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Re: Bridges and Dvorak
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Don't be sorry for asking questions! We all know how fickle these storms can be. There are many factors that go into forecasting a storm, and this one is no exception!
Lake Toho is right: just stay vigilant and don't let your guard down until it's past us. If this storm continues to grow (did someone spray it with Miracle Grow or something?) in the next few days, we will most likely see some rain. Just keep tuning in and keeping an eye to the sky and an ear to the TV.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:09 AM |
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Katrina
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Latest Advisory: The National Weather Service has issued a hurricane warning for the southeastern Florida coast from Vero Beach south to Florida City. Well now it is offical.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:18 AM |
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Good Luck, Bob
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I hope that you filled up your gas tank today, Bob. Even though I live on the other side of the coast, I did. I'm sure we won't suffer a direct hit right over our house, but I didn't want to take a chance on higher gas prices.
Good luck, Godspeed, and may the force be with you.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:24 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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latest recon... south of apalah....west of tamp....in GOM....be atleast an hour or so before vortex....got to cross state too.....
URNT11 KNHC 250408
97779 04074 50276 85300 70100 08013 6475/ /5766
RMK AF300 0512A KATRINA OB 02
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:25 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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GFS has finally come around. 00z run shows the storm crossing the peninsula, then a second landfall in the general vicinity of Tampa.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_fpc.shtml
As out to lunch as the GFS has been the past few days, I don't know what to make of this. However, as it falls in line with what some of the other models are showing, perhaps the NHS will make a slight track shift east @ 5?
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:28 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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Thank you Colleen.We are getting the first batch of heavy rain now.I think I have done all I can do for now.Some of my friends that live close to the beach got together tonight,and it ended with alot of good lucks and hugs.Now it is time to pray it does not get to strong.I am ready for Katrina here.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:39 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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The NHC is concern more why the GFDL model is not in line, not the GFS, the GFS is known to go right or left with each model run..
Dave
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:42 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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No they like to run off of the GFDL model,,,thats why they said they highly recognize it....but what they are concerned about is its back to back run of a Cat 2-3 hurricane going into DADE County then Cat 3 somwhere on the 2nd landfall.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:43 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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yup the gfs has been one way then back to the other so i dont think that will do much to there thinking.
Unless the gdfl and nogaps change alot i dont think the 5am will change track much if any.
Too many models are all over the map on this one so i think the 24-36 hr is good but after that i think its 50/50 at best if this storm goes into the gulf then to the panhandle or maybe up the state.Still too early to call.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:45 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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Right Old Sailor, but don't overlook the fact that this is the first run in a while where the GFS is actually crossing the state. It represents a growing consensus in the models. Also, while the NHC did express concern over the GFDL, as you noted, it's not like they ignored the GFS. They did an interest in it, and I don't doubt that this run will play a major role in their 5AM forecast. (as the NHC seems to be heavily relying on it this season) This "ain't your ordinary model flip flop," it's a complete shift for a major model.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:46 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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but that is due to the fact the gdfl does not even have it hitting florida east coast at all.It will have to go south a bunch to make the gdfl come to pass.
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:46 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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Impressive SAT...eye clearly definable SE FL getting the first of it already
Edit: the circulation is visible on radar, but there's no well-defined eye there yet at all. If there is anything, it's a weak northern eyewall. Give it time and one might be there, but not as of 1a. --Clark
[ www.weather.com/outlook/homeandgarden/home/map/USFL0149
intermediate advisory @ 2am should prove to be interesting at the least.
When is the GFDL model set to run again?
It runs every six hours. The next run will start at 2a and be available around 5a. --Clark
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:47 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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Quote:
No they like to run off of the GFDL model,,,thats why they said they highly recognize it....but what they are concerned about is its back to back run of a Cat 2-3 hurricane going into DADE County then Cat somwhere on the 2nd landfall.
Which worries me as well. And right now the convection is really flaring up. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
And the fact that its thirteen years since Andrew just makes this all the freakier. And especially since the GFDL has run two straight runs of a strong cane hitting us in Dade. Either way, I am really interested if this continues with the next run, if so, then we may be in trouble considering this has been one of the best performing models in recent history. Either way, Dade is in line for some Tropical Storm winds in the least.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:49 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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Quote:
but that is due to the fact the gdfl does not even have it hitting florida east coast at all.It will have to go south a bunch to make the gdfl come to pass.
Check out the latest run, its on the front page from the Colorado Model plot. It has it going right through central Dade county. and it won't take much of a wobble southward to produce that.
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:53 AM |
Re: Recon
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We're at least 15-18 hours away from power outages here in Broward County if She continues to decelerate as expected.
I posted information earlier this month on using a largish computer backup power supply with those 7 1/2 watt, standard base bulbs. The bulbs look like ping-pong balls and shed a surprising amount of light. They're so low in power consumption that they'll be good 'till FPL takes care of business. (Crosses fingers)
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:58 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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It may be part of a growing consensus, but do remember that given the westward shift, it will lead to a westward shift in the consensus tracks. Despite the shift, I don't expect any real change to the track forecast with the 5a advisory unless something else changes in the model analyses.
Note that the 00z GFS track is similar to the 12z and 18z FSU MM5 runs, both of which are run off of the corresponding GFS analyses. All three show a track up the west coast of the state with a landfall in the general vicinity of Cedar Key. It helps to narrow the potential landfall points at the very least, but as with all model guidance, we need to see what kind of trends show in the model.
Given a full-fledged tropical storm, the GFDL tends to over-develop tropical cyclones; given weak storms, it flip-flops between keeping them weak and really developing them. There often seems to be little middle ground with the model's intensity forecasts; despite that, it still does a good job on track and is better than most on intensity. I don't doubt that the storm is going to get stronger -- I just don't buy it getting that strong. The islands of the Bahamas will have some impact upon the circulation, while it still needs some time to consolidate a solid core. The microwave imager passes over the storm earlier suggested some asymmetric areas of convection around the larger circulation; it'll take these contracting into a single CDO before we start to see deep intensification. Best bet is still for something along the lines of a category 1 hurricane at landfall.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:16 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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Clark i see the same as you with the gdfl.All season it either see's nothing or it has it way overboard.
I remember back on other storms it did the same thing going way over on how strong it will be.
And if it stays over land for 24 hours like the NHC says it has to lose a lot of punch and when it gets back out over the gulf it will take a little time to get its act back together again.
I want to see the nogaps and gdfl new runs to see what track change they have.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:48 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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been watching the radar for awhile...waiting on recon and i think that katrina.....which appears now on the 125nm range (center), may be going through some type of new center replacement.... the only thing i can think off...is she is getting stronger and she may be trying to fire up a new center...an inner eyewall....i would say in the last hour or two, i think the movement may just be a little south of west...a wobble of sorts....well see how many walls she has and if she is open on any side from recon soon.... i would guess open on east side....but not sure and can' tell....i would guess she has at least two inner walls around center.....also going with 50-55kts on next vortex....999-1001mb
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:48 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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2AM nothing new no change in MPH and movement still west at 8
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:51 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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THE RECONNAISSANCEAIRCRAFT THAT WAS ENROUTE TO KATRINA HAS HAD TO ABORT DUE TO
COMPUTER PROBLEMS.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:51 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
|
No gusts even listed just 50MPH and still 1000 MB.Hope this keeps up for you guys on the east coast as of this new update 3 more hrs and status quo
Just as a heads-up, they usually only list gusts in the forecasts (not the public advisories) unless it is an intense storm and there is a need to highlight overly strong gusts. A non-strengthening storm, though, is always good news. --Clark
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:58 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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well now i know AF300 plane sucks.... if i remember correctly the plane had a problem with dennis off of cuba......in july...
this was the last i got tonight
URNT11 KNHC 250501
97779 05004 50253 80900 70100 04015 6464/ /5763
RMK AF300 0512A KATRINA OB 04
AF 307 and 304 i think have the new upgrades. ( tail numbers of plane )
this sucks because there could be a lapse in next computer model runs...no data from tonight (midnight til morning)...so later runs in morning would be skewed i would think
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:02 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| laxpimpj |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:16 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200512_5day.gif
Could someone please take a look at that map and do a mspaint shop job of marking where exactly coral gables (university of miami to be specific) is. If this thing comes through do you think they will cancel classes? It is our first week of school, and that would really be something to get a cane'!
Talk about school spirit.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:25 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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university of miami, fla is here, use bar on left to zoom in or out. good thing the VMA's (mtv) are in miami on sunday! did the same thing last year with mtv down in miami. tropical wx
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:29 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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Yeah classes should be canceled on Friday. Maybe today (thursday).
Anyways looking at the models,,,(outside the GFDL cause I cant seem to get it) they are all converging on a trip along the west coast of florida over the weekend. Landfalls are near Clearwater-Cedar Key. Nogaps was the western outliner and still is but has shifted from 87W landfall to now 85W or just east of PanamaCity.
Just to note on this though, it has landfall tomorrow night and near Vero beach,,,I think its kinda too far N so it will make the turn N in the eastern gulf about 1-2dg too far w. Landfall looks on track near Cedar Key. Thing is how strong will it get Saturday night in the gulf into Sunday when it hugs near the coast and comes inland.......People from Sarasota-NewPortRichie really need to pay attention along the coastline as winds around 75-110mph could be expected in a Cat 3 hurricane on Sunday.
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:44 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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Storm exactly due East of my abode and at course 270 heading directly for my nose. I've been in many storms but never experienced the eye. This could be my lucky day, if the levee holds.
AT 2 AM EDT... CENTER OF KATRINA
ESTIMATED MIAMI RADAR... LAT. 26.1 N...LON.
78.4 WEST... ABOUT 110 MILES...EAST OF THE
COAST OF FLORIDA.
<<<<< It doesn't get any better!
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 05:18 AM |
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5 a.m.
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At 5 a.m., Katrina is 90 miles due east of Ft. Lauderdale moving west at 8 m.p.h. It looks like Northern Broward County currently has the best chance of landfall. The storm has remained the same overnight and that's a good thing. Here in Palm Beach County there is actually a half day of school until noon today, even though we have a Hurricane Warning and the storm is only 100 miles away. That is crazy! Looks like this storm may not intensify into a hurricane, hopefully(my opinion). Pressure here down to 29.80"
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 05:23 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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Glad to see lots of us got some sleep:
5am updates are in:
Full Update: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2%2Bshtml/241445.shtml
NOT a significant amount of change since 2am update. IMO, this is possibly the beginning of the forecasted slow down??
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 05:36 AM |
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Re: Good Luck, Bob
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This comment is what amazes me:
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THIS PATTERN WITH A SPREAD OF
LANDFALLS IN FLORIDA FROM THE KEYS TO NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
Sounds like we will just have to watch and see for the day. The cone is still so large for such a close storm. NHC seems to have their hands full.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 06:46 AM |
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Re: 5 a.m.
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WXMAN if the storm does go into North Broward...you will be on the worst side of the storm (can't forget that!). Does anyone notice a little south of west job of the center on radar?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0R_lp.shtml
Could be a wobble, we'll have to wait and see. Oh and get this, we have to work this morning until 12pm. I don't think folks down here GET what a hurricane warning means! It means you don't work!
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 07:02 AM |
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Re: 5 a.m.
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Miami radar is showing that the eastern half of the eyewall is getting stronger and spiral bands are now developing on the NW side of the storm. The storm appears to be nearly stationary. If convection manages to completely wrap around the center, look out for some rapid strengthening.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml
| jlauderdal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 07:05 AM |
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Re: 5 a.m.
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Quote:
WXMAN if the storm does go into North Broward...you will be on the worst side of the storm (can't forget that!). Does anyone notice a little south of west job of the center on radar?
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_N0R_lp.shtml
Could be a wobble, we'll have to wait and see. Oh and get this, we have to work this morning until 12pm. I don't think folks down here GET what a hurricane warning means! It means you don't work!
yes i saw the SW movement, lets hope its temporary and not the gensis of the GFDL solution taking place.
| teesda |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 07:21 AM |
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Re: 5 a.m.
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Go figure. I have been tracking hurricanes for over 10 years now. I am supposed to be getting married (for the first time) in Clearwater 11am Sunday morning. My finance told me that it was just destined to find me. Hopefully it will fizzle out and no one will have to worry about it, but that seems very unlikely.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 07:21 AM |
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Bouy Info
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Virginia Key
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=VAKF1
Is showing West winds:
Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 280 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 8.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 15.9 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.80 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.04 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.1 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 87.3 °F
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 07:24 AM |
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Re: Bouy Info
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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=FWYF1
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=MLRF1
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=LONF1
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 07:54 AM |
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8am
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8am just out.Still moving west at 8mph.If it does not slow down then we should be better off.Winds still at 50mph.It is stating to feel like at storm here,we had a gust from the north at 23mph.Nail biting time,will it slow down and get stronger????70 miles from Fort Lauderdale.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 07:59 AM |
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Wind Gusts
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Here in Merrit Island we had a NE wind gust of 33mpg @ 6:53am
this morning.
We just had another NE wind gust of 24 mph
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 08:14 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up Vero South to Florida City
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Going to create a new topic and link it for Situation Reports from your area at this link
Ie if a band comes through, or you find something in your immediate local area that you personally experienced, put it there. General comments and the like and public information can remain in the main thread!
Unofficial forecasts can go here
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 08:15 AM |
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Re: Wind Gusts
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Well, unless we start to get some explosive growth in the next five hours, I think we are only looking at a minimal Cat 1 on landfall. Looks to be within 20 miles either side of Deerfield Beach. Although, I would say 50 miles either side of Deerfield needs to watch out.
The solution once she crosses is still open. I am not sure I buy the coast hugger. I think that NHC's forecast path is still on target. I think a lot of the result will depend on if the storm follows the wsw track influence across Florida or the wnw influence.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 08:19 AM |
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Re: Wind Gusts
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moderate stregthning today into tonight. Pressure down to 998mb now but could be lower,,,need recon in there asap. Movement looks like sw but also there is a dry slot near the center,, that should fill in later today. 11am winds should go up to 60mph but never know what they will find...obs, etc...
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 08:27 AM |
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Re: Wind Gusts
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Looking over the models runs:
* Both CMC (00Z) and UKMET (00Z) match the NHC westerly track pretty closely.
* NOGAPS (00Z) takes the system more west northwest.
* GFS (06Z) and GFDL (00Z) are swinging the system southwest around the tip of FL.
I find the last two curious. While the GFDL has been consistantly showing a southward swing, it is the 00Z run. The GFS, which had been showing the system sticking to the Atlantic yesterday, now, on the 06Z run, is do a sudden drop south then southwest just as Katrina nears the coast. It looks like both the GFDL and GFS actually cause the system to be disrupted slightly near the coast, but then reform it slightly south allowing the jog around FL. If this pans out, it "might" be good new for east coast of FL, but certainly not for the gulf.
Given the past reliability of the GFS and GFDL models, we can't ignore these potential tracks.
Model tracks: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
I used 850mb Vorticity for the tracks, except GFDL where the 850mb is missing. There I used the 310K Potential Vorticity.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 08:35 AM |
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Re: Wind Gusts
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almost all the models for days now expected a wsw or sw turn. Some more then others yes. Anyways the NHC keeps saying it will slow down, but it hasnt yet, as of right now,,couple days ago it was only suppose to be near Nassau. Its already 100 miles wnw of that. I expect it to move wsw over the next day or 2 and almost stall out..drift NNW then move N later Saturday into Sunday with a bend Sunday to the NNEor NE even. I dont think this will pass 83.5W at the most west on Saturday night. Looks like the exit of Florida might be near Naples Saturday morning.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 08:42 AM |
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Re: Wind Gusts
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uhh....those tracks still show Hurricane Force winds in South FL...i wouldn't think that is good news...looks like it is heading on a nudge south of west right now...maybe it is a radar illusion? or the real thing?
| alfrescobeats |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 08:45 AM |
Re: Hurricane Warnings Up Vero South to Florida City
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Hi - my apologies first and foremost as I have no idea re-weather watching, although im more than used to bad weather living in glasgow, scotland.
I am due to fly into orlando sanford at 1540 local time on friday for a two week holiday and I have been weatherwatching in FL for sometime now and picked up on the severe weather alerts issued. Could you please advise me how the storm may affect my locale (orlando) and how likely is it that the flights will be delayed?
Any other advice would be greatly appreciated.
cheers
chris
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 08:46 AM |
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Re: Wind Gusts
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Based on radar out of Miami, it appears that the eye is finally starting to wrap around. We should see an increase in intensity by the 11am advisory, and my guess is that this will probably come ashore at 75-85mph.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:11 AM |
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Re: Wind Gusts
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Looking at the radar site out of Miami, it looks to me that Katrina is NORTH of Miami. Am I seeing things? If it's moving, it doesn't look to be moving very fast. If I am looking at this radar loop correctly, it is already north of Miami and it appears that landfall would occur somewhere between Ft. Lauderdale and WPB.
FYI ... anyone living on the Central West coast of Florida should read the NWS Discussion from 4:45am today. It is the most detailed disco I've ever seen.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:14 AM |
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Re: Wind Gusts
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coll
katrina is most definitely north of miami, still looks to be moving almost due west...at about 8 mph...she should landfall just south of west palm
is that thing I or thing II in your avatar?
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:18 AM |
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Update
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Looks like she is beginning to wrap around and fill in on the west side now. Believe it or not we are still in school until Noon today even though we have a Hurricane Warning and a storm less than 70 miles away. Bands are coming more frequently and more intense. A great radar site is to use the www.wunderground.com site and enter a city nearest the storm. You can then animate the radar and zoom in too. Looks like I will be in the front right quadrant as of now.
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:22 AM |
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Re: Wind Gusts
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Truly an excellent discussion out of Tampa this morning. It appears that Katrina is moving just south of due west. Oddly enough, the farther south this make landfall, the worst it could be for Florida's west coast IF it turns north and closely hugs the coastline. It will mean less time over land, and more time over the warm Gulf waters. With a track farther west, the Panhandle has some serious trouble.
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:24 AM |
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Re: Update
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where is recon at. it looks like some rapid growth maybe on the way.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:26 AM |
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Re: Wind Gusts
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LOL...that would be Lucy, aka Thing 3.
If this is north of Miami already, would you expect a track shift at 11am? I also wonder what would happen if it crosses over Lake Okeechobee. The waters there have got to be like very warm bath waters. The funny thing is (well, it really isn't funny) that the NWS for Tampa have a doom and gloom situation if the storm stays SW of us. They are waiting for more info before putting up any flood watches, inland wind watches, etc. They're hoping to be able to decide on what to issue just in time for the evening news cycles. I find it simply amazing that this thing is only +/- 100 miles offshore and it's still such a large cone of error. The poor NHC...they all deserve raises!
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:27 AM |
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Re: Update
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She does seem to be gaining strength,there is alot of wrap around.She is just about over the gulf stream,that IS were it would happen.
| naples |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:32 AM |
Re: Wind Gusts
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I was wondering the same thing if she were to pass over the everglades, warm water, but not sure if that would have any effect.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:34 AM |
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Re: Update
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Think she is intensifying now, at least the deep convection is growing around the center, and she maybe crawling now. Big problem I see is if she heads SW, stays mostly over water, crosses the keys, then heads NNE. Coming up the west coast and crossing the state towards JAX/Daytona would be terrible. CMC and UK and GFS allude to this Albeit farther north when crossing Florida from the GOM, but if she slows to a crawl, this scenario could shift east over time as the ridge moves into the SW Atlantic. Outside possibility, but not out of the question. Main deal is to see where she first makes landfall. Definitely think she'll land as Cat 1 though....bet she's near 55 knots now.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:35 AM |
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Re: Wind Gusts
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Okay, I just updated the NWS loop from Miami....you can definitely see it's getting a little better organized; also, it DOES appear to be slipping a little south.
Also, I would like to pass along to Jim Cantore in Miami: you won't be dry for long.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:36 AM |
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Ed Rappaport
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Was on Channel 10 in Miami about 10 minutes or so ago. In it he talked about how the radar showed strengthening and they were waiting for recon confirmation. And he talked about how their is the distinct possibility of it stalling out within the next few hours and staying like that for a while.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:38 AM |
Re: Ed Rappaport
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Seems to be moving at a good clip now...and wsw too! Not looking good for Ft. Lauderdale if this continues. I am still at work and can't leave until 12pm!
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:40 AM |
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Re: Wind Gusts
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where are recon. she hasnt even hit gulfstream yet. and looks to be slowing, she may get even stronger than nhc thought.
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:42 AM |
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GFS/GFDL runs
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Just looked at those & with the estimated landfall approaching would hope those in the Keys are paying close attention.
Having been evacuated several times while down there, I know what a logistical nightmare it is...one day for tourists to leave while residents prepare, then next for residents to leave if needed.
If either one of those models pans out the call would need to be made soon...would be nasty to have to implement in those conditions on such short notice.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:42 AM |
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Re: Ed Rappaport
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Wow...that's an ugly scenario. You can see it almost wrapping all the way around the center now. I can understand the stalling out as the steering currents are so light, and that would throw a whole new wrench into the forecast. AFLAC!
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:46 AM |
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south of Miami
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is still a possibility...if it is slowing down...then change in direction often occurs..
I am thinking about a 90-100 mph cane...and then re-entering as a weak tropical storm.....might even kick down to a depression.....
then....up to a cat 3 or larger....and anywhere from New Orleans to Tampa will be under the gun...
too many uncertainties....this one is a very interesting storm....
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:50 AM |
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Katrina
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Recon will be in there with in the hour.It does look to be slowing down ,and that is a bad thing.They are saying now on tv that is COULD be a cat 2 if it slows.It would be worse for me if it went just south of here,as that would put us on the dirty side.Looking nasty outside and getting worse.
| D3m3NT3DVoRT3X |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:51 AM |
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Re: south of Miami
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anyone looked to what is south east of Kat ... alot of convections firing off there this morning .. ?? some one posted i think it was gfs showing another system showing up behind the old girl Kat ... any mets or anyone esle have any ideas ... ?
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:54 AM |
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Re: Katrina
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I will also say this, all the ingreadiants are coming together right now for a strengthening hurricane. Probally not picked up or ignored by some models, and thrown out by others. So here we are, with a huge error in size of landfall, yet the CMC and GFDL models clearly show a really large storm, but downplayed by many. Go figure!!
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:55 AM |
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Steve Lyons
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Confirmed that right now, Katrina is moving southwest almost. On the recent tropical update he said this. Which doesn't bode well if it continues for us farther south, right?
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:55 AM |
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Re: Katrina
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If you haven't looked at it in the last 20-30 mins, check out the IR loop. Very impressive bloom of storms: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:57 AM |
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Re: Katrina
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Well, Bob...you stay safe and tuned in to the TV. At this point, nothing she does would surprise me. The weird thing is that NWS Tampa says the further south it makes landfall, the worse off Tampa will have it, too. So.
JB saying it's probably a hurricane already and turning to the SW, the longer it stays over water the worse for Miami and since it would be over warmer waters, things could get ugly for the Gulf coast.
I have to say I agree...and you could almost see an eye forming. Or it could just be my eyes doing loop de loops.
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:58 AM |
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Re: Ed Rappaport
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look at that feeder band reaching all the way thru gulf. up to panhandle. infared satt. photos showing a small tight eye.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 09:59 AM |
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Re: Steve Lyons
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you wonder why an "official' has to confirm what we are all seeing.
this could easily pass south of Miami.........it will be interesting to see what the new models and tracks will show.....the current one on the site is a cartoon....
updates should show a larger uncertainty...because who the heck knows?????
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:04 AM |
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Re: Steve Lyons
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Katrina has definitely slowed down and has remained nearly stationary over the past 30-45 minutes. It looks like the system is finally working out the dry air, because the northern quadrant is beginning to fill in, as seen on radar. This will definitely be a hurricane by landfall, but not a major--at least at the first landfall.
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:04 AM |
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Offical word
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That's what I was getting at in my previous post Rick...always uncertainy with these things but Katrina is too close now & the coast is already getting weather from her.
While I definitly don't want my beloved state to take it on the chin anywhere a major shift south right now would not be good in my eyes.
| disneyfanfl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:04 AM |
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Re: Katrina
|
Feel free to move this post if it's out of place.
Currently our local mets are forecasting nor'easter-like conditions (20mph winds, periods of heavy rain) for Sunday and Monday for Jacksonville, but this is based on the current NHC track showing hit #2 south of Tallahassee. If some of the models prove to be correct that it hits east of that (towards the big bend) and crosses over Jacksonville, just how much worse would it be for us? Would be then be expecting 40mph or more winds? Just curious since it's a possibility at this time.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:06 AM |
|
|
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Re: Katrina
|
I'll make this short and simple: I think we will have Hurricane Katrina at 11am. I am seriously thinking that the further south this goes, the worse it will get and it will catch a lot of people off guard.
And yes...the further south it goes, the worse off you in So. Florida will have it. Then, where does it go? Hm.
FYI: FNC just had their met on and he said that if she stays offshore longer than anticipated, it could make landfall as a Cat 2.
Hope the people in the Keys are paying attention. If they are going to evacuate, they'd better do it soon.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:09 AM |
|
Re: Steve Lyons
|
I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Katrina will start to head towards the SW and possibly around the tip of FLA due to weak steering currents aloft. This scenario would really be bad for the West Coast of FLA.
| OcalaKT |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:10 AM |
|
|
Re: Katrina
|
Just where would they evacuate the people in the Keys to? They would be moving right into the path of the storm wouldn't they? I wouldn't want to be that Emergency Manager.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:12 AM |
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|
"policy" blows my mind
|
here we have a possible serious situation today for south Florida...and the NHC will wait their "3" hour period to update things....it's ridiculous....at this point...they should be making adjustments hourly.......to help people get prepared...
this thing, if it stalls...could get nasty.....probably a little too close to shore...but still....
I am a bit irritated at the lack of information......from "official" sources......
am I being a little unreasonable about this?....
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:12 AM |
|
Re: Katrina
|
Exactly what my last 2 posts said...evac is a nightmare down there anyway & their window is closing.
They're pros so surely their EOC is staying a step ahead.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:13 AM |
|
|
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Re: Katrina
|
It all depends on how strong she is and when and where she makes her 2nd landfall. If she makes it farther west than Apalachicola, you'll get rain. If she makes it near Tallahassee, you'll get more rain. You'll also be on the worse side of the hurricane, so the closer the hurricane is to you, the worse your weather will be.
Stay tuned to your local mets...I think the best one you have up there is the one who surfs - Tim Deegan? (I used to live there and watched him all the time) He'll keep you updated on what to expect, how to prepare, etc. He's very detailed.
The only thing you can do now is to make sure you have your hurricane kit ready and pay attention to local weather. Hope that helps!
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:14 AM |
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Re: "policy" blows my mind
|
As a storm goes on final approach, they generally go to 2-hourly updates. Given that we haven't had recon data out there and the Doppler radar-based winds aren't able to give us pressure estimates and such, they haven't had a lot to go off of other than radar and satellite presentation -- which hasn't improved rapidly enough to necessitate anything other than 3hrly advisories. I would not be surprised if they go to 2hrly reports starting at 11a, though, given that recon is on its way.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:15 AM |
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Re: Offical word
|
I don't think it is time to raise the panic flag. It definately appears that the forward motion has slowed and it has become better organized. Neither item is unexpected. Hopefully we can get some good recon soon. I doubt this system gets any further south then the Dade/Broward border even if it does start heading south. The only fly is going to be what speed this system moves. The faster the better. If she slows to a crawl and won't make landfall until after tomorrow morning, it is an all bets are off situation.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:16 AM |
|
Re: "policy" blows my mind
|
When the NHC waits, then I feel people will get trapped by the storm of no where to turn to evacuate. Could be disatorous.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:16 AM |
|
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Re: "policy" blows my mind
|
clark whats your take on this thing, is it going south and then around and ne or are we gonna wait for more info at 11 and recon to make a determination?
| Cpt.Napalm |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:18 AM |
|
|
Re: Katrina
|
Would Lake Okechobee have any effect on the storm and maintaining strength as it travels over the peninsula? It seems like a fairly large warm body of water would help keep the strength up. Or is it not deep enough to have enough volume to generate any real heat? At this point though it seems like there is quite a bit more movement to the south so the lake might not even be an issue.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:19 AM |
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|
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Re: Katrina
|
Yes, I hope they are. Good point on where they would evacuate to, also. There's no WAY I'd want to be an EOC Manager down there right now. But you have to admit...a lot of people don't leave the Keys at all for hurricanes. They usually are lucky just to get the tourists out.
Also...I wouldn't want to be Jeb Bush right now, either. He probably can't WAIT until 2006. Unfortunately, he has this hurricane season ahead of him and one more to go. I'm surprised he isn't bald yet.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:19 AM |
|
Re: Steve Lyons
|
I'm looking at the Nexrad radar out of Miami with the storm graphics and associated wind strengths turned on...
Miami Nexrad
Looking at the list of storms, I have seen the strongest winds go from 46 knots about half an hour ago ... to 61 knots just a few minutes ago. I don't know if these are gusts ... but I do think these are surface reports (please let me know if I'm wrong!)
61 knots according to Speed Conversion Online is 70.2 mph whereas 46 knots is 52.94.
That recon will be just in time...
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:21 AM |
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Re: "policy" blows my mind
|
People who needed to evacuate should have done so already. A storm 70 miles offshore is no time to make evacuations. Tropical storm and hurricane warnings were issued well in advance of the storm -- during the watch is when you make preparations, and when the warning is issued is when you get going, not when the storm is on your doorstep. They predicted a hurricane to make landfall, and it's quite possible we see a minimal hurricane at landfall. It's coming in near the predicted path that has been shown for two days now at about the intensity shown -- this should not be a surprise. Saying the NHC is dropping the ball at this point and putting lives in jeopardy is quite frankly not the case...and quite the contrary is true. If this were a rapidly developing situation, which it is not as of yet, you'd see appropriate actions taken.
As for the storm, I expect this WSW jog to be just that -- a jog -- and a more westerly course to resume later today. It will be moving very slow and somewhat erratically, so a small loop or a stair-step motion is quite possible during the day.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:21 AM |
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bad news ya'll
|
Katrina is definitely slowing down...and the deep convection is getting more and more wrapped around the eyewall....
this is already a hurricane......and could make cat 2 easily...if she stays out there....for 24 hours.....guess what could happen!!!???
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:22 AM |
|
Lake O
|
Lake O can definitly have an effect...sure someone else knows for sure...the cane in the 30's right?..those living near were devastated...that's why the levees where built to help hold the water in.
Elderly woman in my town was a girl then...wrote a book about it...amazing what happened.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:27 AM |
|
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Re: bad news ya'll
|
Quote:
Katrina is definitely slowing down...and the deep convection is getting more and more wrapped around the eyewall....
this is already a hurricane......and could make cat 2 easily...if she stays out there....for 24 hours.....guess what could happen!!!???
Here is a bit of the NWS MLB AFD supporting a slow down
TS KATRINA HAS BEEN MEANDERING TOWARD THE FL COAST AND LATEST RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY SUGGEST THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG WITH A SLOWING OF FORWARD MOTION.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:30 AM |
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Re: Lake O
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the year was 1928...and the flooding was tremendous, but i don't think the lake itself, or by itself, had any effect on the storm strengthening
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:31 AM |
|
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Re: Lake O
|
Latest Dvorak numbers that I saw were T3.5/3.5, which translates to about 63mph. Katrina has slowed which was expected/predicted, and she will probably drift erratically for a bit. Still looks pretty close to the most recent NHC plot that I looked at. I don't see her drifting as far south as the Keys.
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:32 AM |
|
Re: "policy" blows my mind
|
Clark...can only speak for my comments & thoughts but I think the point was more along the lines of the fact that the warnings only extended to Fl City...watch to 7 Mile Bridge right?
If the dynamics of this change...a steady consistent "wobble" makes a big difference in impact...a population in a tricky area getting in & out of in good conditions could be faced with a mess...not to mention the conditions those who need to leave would be in...only one way out down there & they wouldn't be traveling thru ideal conditions.
No red flags here or panic...just stating a potential scenario.
| meto |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:32 AM |
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Re: "policy" blows my mind
|
from what i saw at 5 am till right now. it maybe rapidly getting stronger. look at latest infared satt. photos. from what it looked like at 5am.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:34 AM |
|
Re: "policy" blows my mind *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:38 AM |
|
|
Re: Steve Lyons
|
Quote:
I'm looking at the Nexrad radar out of Miami with the storm graphics and associated wind strengths turned on...
Miami Nexrad
Looking at the list of storms, I have seen the strongest winds go from 46 knots about half an hour ago ... to 61 knots just a few minutes ago. I don't know if these are gusts ... but I do think these are surface reports (please let me know if I'm wrong!)
61 knots according to Speed Conversion Online is 70.2 mph whereas 46 knots is 52.94.
That recon will be just in time...
those higher winds are with only single, isloated vectors. the wind direction of the one I just saw was almost 180 degrees from the other vectors around it. could be an anomoly, a micro burst or a forming waterspout.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:39 AM |
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Re: "policy" blows my mind
|
Winds up to 60 mph
997 mb
moving west at 6 mph per NHC
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:39 AM |
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still a ts
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just in case nobody saw the update, kat is still a TS at the 11
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:42 AM |
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Re: still a ts
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Quote:
just in case nobody saw the update, kat is still a TS at the 11
Aircraft recon hasn't reached it yet I assume since its still estimated minimum central pressure, right?
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:44 AM |
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Re: still a ts
|
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 PM EDT AND 3 PM EDT FOLLOWED
BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
| Rob1966 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:50 AM |
|
Re: still a ts
|
Clark-
Is Re-con on the way and if so when should we get the data? I assume they flew a plan that had working computers unlike last nighs 1am flight.
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:53 AM |
|
Re: still a ts
|
Moving at 6 & expected to slow... is a stall possible? Areas will get soaked that don't need a rainshower let alone a TS/hurricane.
Gonna be a long weekend in the sunshine/hurricane state.
Like you Colleen I feel for Jeb right now...was pleased to hear he promised help for Polk cty though...this won't help any...pumping not to start till next week.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:54 AM |
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|
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Re: still a ts
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Still moving due west.The slowing down is the most troubling for me.This will be the first derect hit for Ft Laud in 41 years.It is going to be a very long night here.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 10:57 AM |
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Re: still a ts
|
First recon vortex report is due any minute, but I'm not exactly sure how close the plane is yet. They'll be flying constantly through to first landfall today.
As for the the Keys -- it'd have to dive at a pretty big angle right now to get down there, and do remember that the southern (left) side of a storm is generally the weaker side when it is moving west. Given that and that TS force winds only extend out about 70mi at their furthest from the center, I imagine they just don't feel it likely that the TS force winds extend further south except in gusts with thunderstorms. Just my feeling, though.
| TAZMAN |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:00 AM |
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Re: still a ts
|
"Bad" quadrant is front right corner.... as it is moving right?
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:00 AM |
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Re: still a ts
|
I got this last night from one of the mods maybe clark not sure but the models tend to take it more out into the gulf then the runs last night.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png
| Jester |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:01 AM |
|
Re: bad news ya'll
|
Greetings all,
Long time lurker first time poster. Suspect I will be an infrequent poster but remain addicted to lurking in the future as I don't have a whole lot to add that is not already being addressed. That being said, and recognizing the situation is somewhat different, those to the East in the Sunshine state should be mindful of the rapid deepening of Sir Charles last year. It was pretty exciting.
Stay safe,
Jeff
-- Welcome Jeff!
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:02 AM |
|
Ed Dunham's Post
|
i can't seem to reply in Ed's "Katrina Stalls" Topic so i am going to reply in here. He states that she should exit the FL/GA border line and possibly become a TS again..would it still be called Katrina and where wud it go after that happens..if anyon has models for this im interested. Thanks
Ryan
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:11 AM |
|
Forum Rule Review
|
From the Site Usage Rules:
"Low Content Posts: Please do not make single line posts containing no
content (ie, "cool" "hello", "I agree", or something else completely void of
meaning). Or general cheerleading, for example, if you think someone did a
good job and have nothing else to add send them a PM, it works better for
this. Otherwise posts like these just litter up the forums. Remember, CFHC
is not a Chat Room - it is a Niche topic-oriented site, so please attempt to
stay 'on topic' by placing your posts in the proper Forum."
The attempt here is to avoid the use of one-line posts. CFHC is not a Chat
Room, it is a site for Forum-oriented dialogue, so please use it that way.
Reviewing many of the posts over the past two days, most of the one-liners
add nothing to the exchange of information. A lot of them ask questions that
have already been answered elsewhere - sometimes more than once. Before you
ask a question, take the time to review some of the other Forums - odds are
that it already has been answered. Use the PM feature to thank someone for
their input. Personal information does not belong on this site - it just
clutters it. Keep in mind that there is another Forum for asking questions
of a more general weather nature - please use it when appropriate. When you
post a one-liner like "I think that its moving WSW" and you don't include
anything else - like WHY you think this - its going to get deleted by the
Moderators. Sometimes we let this stuff go, but when we start to receive a
bunch of complaints from other site users - we attempt to resolve the
problem. Please help us by following the site rules - it makes the job of
site moderation a lot easier ... and it provides for a more enjoyable
experience for all of the site users. Thanks for your help on this.
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:14 AM |
|
|
Re: still a ts
|
Quote:
"Bad" quadrant is front right corner.... as it is moving right?
TZAMAN: AS a general rule, yes it appears so. In the case of Katrina, most of the activity is on the entire East side of the storm, but is beginning to wrap around the top.
This link will show you the detail of the windfields forecast by the NHC (now incorporated into our maps)
Windfield Details
This link takes you to a close up of the 11am forecast path for Katrina. Note the shape of the wind fields though out the forecast period, which follow this general pattern:
Zoom of landfall forecast (this image does not auto-update)
| TAZMAN |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:20 AM |
|
|
|
Re: still a ts
|
Sketto.... is that what the shape of the "circle" is representing ? The indented south western side to be the weakest in what you had linked?
| teesda |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:24 AM |
|
Re: still a ts
|
I have been interested in hurricanes for a long, long time. My knowledge level is not nearly as advanced as the frequent posters on this board.
I would like to thank each one of you for posting such wonderful links and providing well thought out information.
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:26 AM |
|
|
|
Re: still a ts
|
Quote:
Sketto.... is that what the shape of the "circle" is representing ? The indented south western side to be the weakest in what you had linked?
The rings represent the "extent" of the winds in any given quadrant. In the example provided using the current data for Katrina, you see that there are currently NO Tropical Storm Force winds on the West side of this storm. Looking forward 12 hours in the forecast you see that the NHC indicates that the Tropical Storm force winds will wrap around the system entirely as well as the development of a category 1 hurricane wind field (yellow).
We created these maps due to the public always focusing on the forecast line instead of the true area affected.
It appears you are reading these maps correctly.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:30 AM |
|
Re: still a ts
|
May i ask what are the darker green and larger circle? that is not TS winds then what is it? and also they dont have it having any TS winds as it cross's the state till it gets back out into the gulf?
| susieq |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:37 AM |
|
Re: still a ts
|
What factor will keep Katrina from the Pensacola area? Is high pressure expected here?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:37 AM |
|
|
|
Re: still a ts
|
Quote:
May i ask what are the darker green and larger circle? that is not TS winds then what is it? and also they dont have it having any TS winds as it cross's the state till it gets back out into the gulf?
if you actually read the map key, the darker green represents TD winds
| Juanky |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:41 AM |
|
Pressure drop?
|
NBC6 news mentioned that the pressure may have dropped to 990mb which would be a considerable drop. It was mentioned in the latest discussion. Can anyone verify this?
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:42 AM |
|
Re: still a ts
|
Ok thanks time to clean off lens on glasses as i did not see it up there in the corner.Anyway i hope the gdfl does not pan out as the keys are still in the cone and yet i have not seen any ivac right? any guess on when watchs and warnings will come up on the west coast and where?
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:43 AM |
|
Re: still a ts
|
radar presentation hints of another WSW wobble.... this could make a big impact relative to who gets the most damage if it indeed reaches Cat 1 or 2 strength.... can only wait to see if this is indeed a trend or just another wobble...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:43 AM |
|
Re: Pressure drop?
|
They are going off of a recon report at about 11:05am that stated that the pressure had fallen to 990mb, so it is indeed correct. Flight level winds have kicked up as well and it is possible that Katrina's surface winds are slightly higher than estimated -- 65 to 70mph.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:44 AM |
|
|
A little confused
|
ok from:
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/1421Z
H. 990 MB
MAX FL WIND 60 KTS S QUAD 1426Z
So, did they timestamp the Vortex data message wrong
or the flight wind measurements?
and the pressure is 990 according to this recon report. hmmm any thoughts on what happened?
-Mark
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:47 AM |
|
Re: A little confused
|
The time of the center fix was at 1421z, but they went down to the southern side of the storm thereafter and found higher winds there. The actual vortex message was not transmitted until 1505Z -- 11:05am -- thus allowing for a period where higher winds could be found after the initial center estimate.
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:48 AM |
|
Re: A little confused
|
Looks to me like we have an eye folks.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:49 AM |
|
Re: A little confused
|
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml
On the last frame looks like a eye correct?
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:52 AM |
|
Re: A little confused
|
absolutely, I was getting ready to post the same... center now clear of convection and very discernable on radar... very impressive to say the least... sure looks like a hurricane on radar... if not, not very far from being one.. still creaping towards Fort L....
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:55 AM |
|
Re: A little confused
|
Still looks like the west side is still not getting any convection to hold yet but does look alot better then the 11am update.I would say its close to hutticane maybe 70mph.
| susieq |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:55 AM |
|
Re: A little confused
|
What factor will keep Katrina from the Pensacola area? Is high pressure expected here?
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:56 AM |
|
Re: A little confused
|
And I'm starting to get a little antsy here in Tallahasse based on the forecast track.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:56 AM |
|
Re: A little confused
|
You see what happens is, if there is an eye present, then it is a hurricane, which would mean the NHC would have to provide updates right away. Also, with an eye, tell-tale sign of rapid deepening, and with the falling pressure to 990mb, what are they waiting for.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 11:58 AM |
|
Re: A little confused
|
Quote:
What factor will keep Katrina from the Pensacola area? Is high pressure expected here?
It is expected to go around the high and as it pulls away from the state the storm is expected to go around it hence the forcast path.
| susieq |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:00 PM |
|
Re: A little confused
|
Is there a map anywhere that shows current highs and lows?
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:08 PM |
|
|
|
Re: A little confused
|
There is no eye yet. It may be developing one; but it is still filled in on the visible sattelite. There is a lag between pressure drop and winds increasing. As of right now, they have not found wind evidence to reclassify. Noon position update is still showing a west movement. Should have a cat 1 at landfall in mid-Broward county.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:08 PM |
|
|
Re: A little confused
|
the eye is not filled, it is simply covered with high clouds at the moment. There are numerous hurricanes and near-hurricanes where it takes about 12 hours after the eye forms to show up on satellite imagery, and sometimes it never does.
motion i see just north of due-west; it is already north of Ft. Lauderdale, and I expect landfall to be on the county line of Palm Beach and Broward, with winds 85-90. As for the recon report, 990mb and 70 mph winds in southern side (weaker) equates to about 60-65 mph at surface, which might indicate hurricane force in the northern quadrant. I expect to see winds bumped up to 70-75 on the 2pm advisory.
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:10 PM |
|
|
|
A bit north wobble of west...
|
Really nice presentation on the Miami radar loop out of...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml
Looks like a 'cane to me. Clearly visible eye feature in the last couple of frames, looks to be moving just slightly north of west with the southern edge of the eye right about over the center of Ft. Lauderdale.
If that radar presentation continues over the next hour or so I suspect the NHC will update.
It appears that the southwest turn predicted by the GFDL is not verifying....
| Cpt.Napalm |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:12 PM |
|
|
|
Re: A little confused
|
There looks like an "eye" on the Miami radar but the "eye" is still not showing on the IR or the visible loops. From the sounds of the recon it is very close to hurricane status. Does an eye or even a eye on radar by itself in a storm make it a cane? It is all dependant on the windspeed correct?
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:13 PM |
|
|
|
Re: A little confused
|
look VERY closely just to the NW of the Biminis islands (NW of Andros) and you will see a slightly darker spot, that is where the eye is about ready to show up at in about 1-3 hours
Katrina
| bobbutts |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:16 PM |
|
|
Re: A bit north wobble of west...
|
Yeah, after staring at the MIA radar I'm seeing due west movement with a position 37NM due west of Pompano Beach. Last 30 minutes have seen much improved wrap around what will become the eye though the SE quad is still returning by far the strongest echos.
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:19 PM |
|
|
|
Re: A little confused
|
Quote:
There looks like an "eye" on the Miami radar but the "eye" is still not showing on the IR or the visible loops. From the sounds of the recon it is very close to hurricane status. Does an eye or even a eye on radar by itself in a storm make it a cane? It is all dependant on the windspeed correct?
Yeah, its all about windspeed when it comes to official classification but that presentation pretty much comes with the pressure and windspeed to support the status....
She was close at the 11 AM without the presentation - with the convection wrapping around the center like this its pretty clearly deepening enough to support the upgrade.
| susieq |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:28 PM |
|
Re: A little confused
|
If you look out into the Atlantic, it looks like we have a convoy approaching...
http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlstorm12/tropicalatlanticsatellite_large_animated.html
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:34 PM |
|
|
Re: A little confused
|
Models are so crazy after Katrina crosses FL I don't know what to think after that.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:35 PM |
|
|
|
Other features
|
If any Mets (or anyone else in the know) would mind pinging us with a few features out there. For example, the thunderstorm complex around 47W 11N, can it help reinvigorate 97L? (which is still spinning around 47W 17N, but increasingly seperated from associated convection).
There is also a thunderstorm complex in the southern Carib. 78W 11N or so. Looks like a mid level twist, nothing organized, but it seems to be drifting wnw and if it keeps together who knows (after all this season isn't lacking storms....)
Finally there is the thunderstorms around 68W 22N or so, (caused by a divergent flow in the upper atmosphere?) I don't think it'll develop, but it's certainly worth the look - see (assuming anyone can tear their eyes away from Katrina).
I'm curious what other peoples thoughts are....
-Mark
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:36 PM |
|
Re: A little confused
|
Interesting that the 12Z GFS has Katrina off the SW FLorida coast just north of the Keys, then takes her to just west of Tampa and stalls her there for 2 - 3 days, then slowly moves her toward the big bend, then has her near Charleston and intensifying again
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:37 PM |
|
Re: Other features
|
I am working right now in Longwood/Lake Mary area and it is really coming down and is really windy with thunder and all. First one today!
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:43 PM |
|
|
Right front quadrant
|
A few pages back someone was asking about the right front quadrant...the following is from the Hurricane Local Statement for Southwest Florida.
...TORNADO IMPACTS... LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF KATRINA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... INCREASING THE THREAT FOR QUICKLY DEVELOPING TORNADOES.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:43 PM |
|
|
|
What They Are Waiting for....
|
is confirmation from RECON. If you read the discussion, it also mentions that although the pressure has dropped down to 990mb, the winds have not yet reflected that pressure drop. This happens with a lot of storms...I remember Charley as a distinct example.
They can't just "up" the winds if data does not support it.
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:44 PM |
|
Apopka - squally..........
|
Yeah, I'm working in Apopka today and I am hearing thunder in the distance. Been kinda breezy until now. Rains coming, winds blowing......... Let the games begin!
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:45 PM |
|
|
|
Re: A little confused
|
RE: Steve:
And then look at the GFDL from a couple hours ago. It is still insisting that the storm will make a sudden, strong southward jog in about 3-9 hours and the eye will miss Florida to the south. These models are definately not in agreement at all.
To all:
I'd be concerned if I were anywhere along the southern half of the FL east coast today, and as for tomorrow...better check back closer to midnight and the next model runs! Do not assume that becuase the extrapolated track is west, and the central cone of the NHC guidence is west, that it won't deviate north or south. Remember Charley from last year and its sudden jog just before landfall.
| TAZMAN |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:47 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Right front quadrant
|
Quote:
A few pages back someone was asking about the right front quadrant...the following is from the Hurricane Local Statement for Southwest Florida.
...TORNADO IMPACTS... LEE AND CHARLOTTE COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF KATRINA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... INCREASING THE THREAT FOR QUICKLY DEVELOPING TORNADOES.
I asked........ but it was in reference to the motion of the storm or N - E - S - W as being the "right front quadrant:
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:49 PM |
|
|
|
Katrina Update
|
Channel 9 out of Orlando just announced that the winds have been bumped up to 65mph...this update came from NHC.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 12:51 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dry slot working into the center?
|
Well radar is also showing a potential dry slow working into the center... hopefully that will keep the storm down in strength.
It's wobbling so expect to see some varation on the 270 degree track, but it'll probably even out to about 270. (though I think it may peek a little south of due west when it's all said and done)
at what point would the interaction with florida inhibit growth? or is the water too warm and shear to low to have land interaction do much more than slow it down (until the center crosses over....
-Mark
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:00 PM |
|
|
|
Re: A little confused
|
I stand by my statement that an eye is developing; but not quite there. A true eye is a center of circulation clear of precipitation and most clouds. IR would show an eye covered by high clouds. Radar presentation is still extremely ragged and filling in from time to time.
She will be hurricane within the next few hours, though.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:01 PM |
|
|
Re: Dry slot working into the center?
|
>>It appears that the southwest turn predicted by the GFDL is not verifying....
I disagree and think it's pretty evident on radar that the system is at least moving WSW over the sum length of the MIA radar loop (usually +/- 50 minutes or so). Not that this implies anything, but it certainly appears to be taking a little dive to me.
Steve
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:03 PM |
|
Re: A little confused
|
Here is a link to a close up of Katrina.
http://weather.sun-sentinel.com/global/Region/g4/2xpxIRSatellite.html
Looks like the CDO and the outflow to the North and to the Southwest is getting it's act togehter rather rapidily. I would assume that by the 2PM update we will have Hurricane Katrina.
| ROB H |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:03 PM |
|
|
Re: Models
|
ukmet, gfs, cmc, all mm5 all have seem to be in agreement now on Katrina turning
north in the gulf and running parallel to the west coast and exiting in the lower big
bend area. nogaps is similar to nhc at landflall but track is to the right. gfdl has not
been updated. I think 5:00 advisory will have track adjusted to the right.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:08 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Models
|
That's probably pretty good news Rob H especially since majors don't usualy go in between Cedar Key and St. George (can't think of any historical storms that have, though there probably are one or two over the last 150 years). Obviously there are tidal issues up that way that will need to be contended with, but it's not the same type of situation as if a major was bearing down on Destin, Ft. Walton, Pensacola or Panama City.
Steve
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:08 PM |
|
Re: Models
|
Since no one has mentioned him so far, I will. JB has stated that there where be a ridge building out west and that will force Katrina up and along the East Coast by New Jersey by next week, If you look at the CMC plot to 144hrs, then JB would be correct in his prediction. He believes the trough/front will merge with Katrina and really intensify off the East Coast by next week. We shall see.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:09 PM |
|
Re: Models
|
I don't think you'll see any major shift of the track at 5pm. Some members are still to the left of the NHC landfall position, including the GFDL, with the NOGAPS and CONU very close to the official track. As with the past three advisories, I imagine the track forecast will largely be an extension of the previous one. Recall that the NHC doesn't use the CMC very much and the MM5 hardly at all in making track forecasts.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:09 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Models
|
Quote:
ukmet, gfs, cmc, all mm5 all have seem to be in agreement now on Katrina turning
north in the gulf and running parallel to the west coast and exiting in the lower big
bend area. nogaps is similar to nhc at landflall but track is to the right. gfdl has not
been updated. I think 5:00 advisory will have track adjusted to the right.
Not what I'm seeing about which tracks have update. Take a look: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif
What's your source?
I'm seeing GFDL has also updated, and is still showing a jog around FL. Really wierd that one of the most reliable models continues to be an outlier, and also seems to be one of the most consistant about where Katrina is going.
BTW, TCGenisis at FSU and PSU haven't brought all their models to the latest it seems - some are up to 12 hours old.
--RC
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:10 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Models
|
Looks to be moving due west to me
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:11 PM |
|
Re: Models
|
1PM REPORTS FROM A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...
AND KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE BEFORE THE
CENTER REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES
...110 KM FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:11 PM |
|
Re: Models
|
The population is much less, but the surge potential is much, much higher. Cedar Key was devestated by an extratropical cyclone in the mid-80s, while the whole coastline was ravaged by Dennis this year despite the storm making landfall 150-200 miles further west. It likely won't be a major -- probably high end 1 -- but that's still going to do a lot of damage, particularly given that this is a heavily wooded area without a very strong infrastructure (the power grid in Tallahassee, for instance, is unreliable during strong weather at best). Less population & monetary damage, but the overall impact to the coastline will be far greater, based off of experience.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:12 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Models
|
Quote:
Looks to be moving due west to me
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml
If you watch the center of rotation, it looks to me like it is heading just south of due west. Hard to tell.
An hour ago it still looked due west to me.
(sorry about the short post mods
)-- thanks for thinking of us!
| MARK32366 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:15 PM |
|
Re: strengthening
|
The dry air doesen't seem to be bothering it much. With winds up to 65 I still believe we will have a 75 mph hurricane this evening. After landfall I'm just not sure how slow this system will be moveing durring the night but if landfall is around 10pm tonight then I se Katerina reaching th gulf Friday afternoon. The areas along the west coast need to watch what happens. I live in Fort Myers and forecasts still predict 5-10 inches of rain but if this storm makes it into the gulf as I think it will the heavy rain should be over here by noon saturday.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:17 PM |
|
|
|
Update
|
Schools finally closing in Palm Beach County with the storm only 40 miles away(Boca Raton). CRAZY! Winds and rains definitely picking up. Pressure down to 29.72" here with almost an inch of rain and winds to 20 m.p.h. At Delray Beach a report of a possible missing surfer. Storm looks due west towards the Broward/Palm Beach line putting me in the front right quadrant.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:19 PM |
|
|
Re: Models
|
That 'SW' movement may be just one of a series of jogs. I do not see anything that would contradict NHC forcasted path heading West. I am surprised that the UKMET model is biased to the right on both coasts; it's showing a landfall in PB County and has it looping to central Fl from the GOM.
I am also wondering why the NHC has not discontinued the hurricane warning north of St.Lucie inlet,
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:20 PM |
|
Re: Models
|
Quote:
The population is much less, but the surge potential is much, much higher. Cedar Key was devestated by an extratropical cyclone in the mid-80s, while the whole coastline was ravaged by Dennis this year despite the storm making landfall 150-200 miles further west. It likely won't be a major -- probably high end 1 -- but that's still going to do a lot of damage, particularly given that this is a heavily wooded area without a very strong infrastructure (the power grid in Tallahassee, for instance, is unreliable during strong weather at best). Less population & monetary damage, but the overall impact to the coastline will be far greater, based off of experience.
Clark any inkling on what we might be in store for here in Tally??
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:22 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dry slot working into the center?
|
I have just finished looking at about 8 different loops. Although it appeared to be going almost due west for a while, I am seeing jogs to the sw just like you are, Steve. It's almost "stair-stepping" at this point. This morning it looked like it was going to make landfall near WPB (at least to my eyes), now it is further south near Ft. Lauderdale.
Also....NWS in Tampa is very concerned about Katrina. The latest disco urged people in West Central and South central Florida to not let their guard down.
I have a question: if this is only 45 miles due east from Ft. Lauderdale traveling at 6mph heading due west, why (according to NHC) would it be making landfall around midnite or 1:00am? If it's 1:00pm now, wouldn't they be expecting landfall around 7-8pm tonight?
I'll admit...I was never really good at math...so please feel free to correct me if I am wrong!
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:23 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Models
|
Quote:
I am also wondering why the NHC has not discontinued the hurricane warning north of St.Lucie inlet,
I'd guess becuase of what Charley did last year with sudden last minute jogs. Just becuase it doesn't look like it might hit there doesn't mean it won't. With the strongest quadant generally the NE/NW one (depending on direction of movement), the warning extending further north isn't surprising.
--RC
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:26 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Models
|
When I posted the SW note, the center of circulation stopped above the last A in Lauderdale. Now it's down on top of the "r and d". I realize that Florida and the United States jut out in a weirder angle than are depicted on flat maps, but based on the maps, it's moved a bit south. I realize that the last 3 positions (11am, 12 estimate and 1pm) show it at 26.2. But it's hedging downward a little IMHO (may be the angle of Florida as depicted on the maps as noted).
>> Less population & monetary damage, but the overall impact to the coastline will be far greater, based off of experience.
I realize the shallow issues they have from the bay eastward. And it's not like I didn't acknowledge it, but we usually measure hurricanes by monetary damage, loss of life, strength and windspeed. Hey, in New Orleans, a tropical storm off the Texas Coast (such as Frances 1998) feeding training rainbands on top of the city is worse than any direct hit of a Cat 1 or 2 on this city. So it's all relative to locale-specific and storm-specific problems. In this case, tidal damage and surge could flood much of the low lying areas of the Big Bend similar to what happened at St. Mark's during Dennis. But a high-end 1 isn't really comparable with a 3 or 4 IMO.
Steve
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:34 PM |
|
Re: Models
|
26.5 N 80.1 W
Hurricane Warning, Flood Watch
This was a previous post.
So there is a southerly movement with this last update at 1PM.
| Myles |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:34 PM |
|
Katrina
|
Looking at its current motion and sat appearence, I think we might dodge a bullet here. It might get up to cat 1, but I think it will make landfall before anymore strengthing can occur. Looking at all the sats, the coulds have warmed up a bit, but the overal look of the storm is very good. That large band to the south is impressive and cold cloud tops are starting to band around the center. The worst possible scenario is that it stalls, but it doesnt appear to be right now. But if it does stall, Katrina might be a heck of a storm by landfall.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:41 PM |
|
Re: Models
|
yeah sorry rob but they are continuing to shift westward. The Models are shifting towards the Nogaps cause they now see it wont sit east of Florida till tomorrow, it will come on shore near Hollywood later tonight. I do think the Nogaps and the CMC is allittle too fast ( Nogaps) and too much west ( CMC) but I am in agreement with the GFS and UKMet. I also havnt seen the GFDL track or initiation. Thing is,,if this doesnt come onshore before midnight, doesnt exit SW florida by tomorrow evening,, then it will move along 83-84w with a bend to the NNE or NE just N of clearwater on Sunday evening. I expect the most strengthning of the system into a Cat 3 Saturday night into Sunday morning. I expect landfall around midnight tonight and exiting the coast around 3-5pm Friday. Saturday it will begin a bend to the NNW and then N later Saturday night into Sunday.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:43 PM |
|
Re: Models
|
Quote:
ukmet, gfs, cmc, all mm5 all have seem to be in agreement now on Katrina turning
north in the gulf and running parallel to the west coast and exiting in the lower big
bend area. nogaps is similar to nhc at landflall but track is to the right. gfdl has not
been updated. I think 5:00 advisory will have track adjusted to the right.
The new GFS takes it out more in the gulf by 100 miles more then its last run so you can take that out of those and as said the mm5 has done really bad.
I wonder what the gfdl will do now that the south part has not come about shall see soon i guess.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:46 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Models
|
Hey Scott, look at the loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
check off the MLSP
Won't the storm follow the lower numbers?
If so, the UKMET would seem appropriate.
Yes / NO ??
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:50 PM |
|
Re: Models
|
If you look at that floater, Katrina has moved south of predicted track.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:50 PM |
|
Re: Models
|
I havnt seen the Ukmets 12z run actually,, its not updating for where I see it so if anyone has a link, that would be great to the 12z run.
Anyways, I dont see where your saying ralph? I had almost no sleep last night,,hehe. The path for the 2nd lanfall will be determined on how fast it goes from now till saturday and how fast the trough comes down.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:54 PM |
|
Re: Models
|
i was talking about the guy who said the gfs was up the coast which it was in the early run but the latest run of the gfs takes it out into the gulf 100 miles more then the gfs last run.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_model.html
Has the latest gfs which which is different then the one posted on there a few hrs ago.
| Myles |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 01:55 PM |
|
Re: Models
|
From what I see, The Force, she is almost excactly on track moving pretty much due west, albeit a bit slower then she was. Even the speed factor was predicted by NHC, so, as of now, they seem to be right on the ball.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:01 PM |
|
Re: Models
|
Well looks to me there is a dramatic shift to the west,,,UKMet now has gone 400 miles to the west with landfall and the GFDL has gone more west. Even the crappy GFS shifted west by 100miles or so.
Again if she moves slow and doesnt exit sw florida by late afternoon tomorrow then she missed her oppertunity to hit anything east of 85W.....if she continues on with a speed of 8mph or more then she will continue towards maybe even Pensocola area.....( the usual hurricane magnet area).
Edit: I think Scott meant to say "west of 85W" given slow motion, not east. --Clark
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:02 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Models
|
As for the GFDL, the GFDL wasn't predicting the southward jog until this afternoon. It was predicted very close to the coastline, so we still have to watch for it.
I just checked the storm-centered IR floater at CMISS and the floater is moving due-west.
The radar from NWS in Miami is showing an almost complete stall with the only apparent motion to the south southwest! (Just a half hour ago it was showing a west southwest track) Take a look for yourself and tell me if you're seeing the same thing I am about the movement of the center of rotation. I'd like someone to confirm what I'm seeing.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:02 PM |
|
|
|
NWS Miami
|
AT 150 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATRINA WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 36 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE...OR DIRECTLY EAST OF LAUDERDALE BY THE SEA.
KATRINA HAS STRENGTHENED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND NOW HAS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 MPH. SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOW APPROACHING THE BROWARD COAST...AND WILL APPROACH THE PALM BEACH AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COASTS WITHIN THE NEXT TWO HOURS.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:03 PM |
|
New models not so nice for the Mobile area
|
Several new models are now pointing more towards Mobile/Pola....again.......GFDL and UKMET are two of them. THis could be a very powerful storm if it follows that path.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:05 PM |
|
Re: Models
|
Bryan Norcross just mentioned that on TV. He is getting his info. from NHC. 2pm.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:07 PM |
|
|
|
Re: A little confused
|
a true eye is anything with an eyewall--Bonnie, at 50mph in the Gulf last year, never showed an eye on satellite appearance, but recon plane and NHC stated that there was indeed an eye present
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:07 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Models
|
Looking at that loop --- is the center of circulation just to the left of the
symbol? If so, then it IS moving SW.Also...just heard from Janice Dean on Fox News Channel that they *may* extend the hurricane warning further south into the Keys. Also...it shows it making landfall tonight around 8pm but not exiting the coast until sometime Saturday. Which I guess would be bad news for everyone, including the SW and Central Gulf coast of Florida.
A new track is supposed to come out at 3pm --- according to Janice Dean. Hm.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:09 PM |
|
Stationary at 2pm
|
WTNT52 KNHC 251748
TCEAT2
TROPICAL STORM KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z... THE CENTER OF SLOW-MOVING TROPICAL
STORM KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN MIAMI
TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST... OR ABOUT
40 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 40
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA RATON FLORIDA.
FORECASTER STEWART
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:10 PM |
|
Re: Models
|
Im kinda frustrated watching TWC programming.. too much is based on News and not enough information on what the systems doing and where and why its going there. News briefs are fine but detail to the people is better. I would like to see them not just say,,," we expect landfall here and a turn to the N cause of a front up here". Well why? give people details, maybe show diff model runs. Understandably they dont have the time to go over eveything but its better then hearing about people boarding up or what the stores are doing. Thats for Fox and CNN.
Anyways NHC has detailed well in their discussions but have been off on the speed. I, myself been off too. They originally had this 2 days ago about Nassau right now,,been saying for days, " A decrease in forward speed" but its been moving between 7-10mph for 48hours. Track has been accurate to the model blends but the public can see that. Anyways Ill leave my rant at that...........
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:13 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Stationary at 2pm
|
if latest trends with models keeps going i would expect a slight shift in the forecast after 48hrs to the left or west....moving second landfall back towards apalach.....in the 5pm adv...... more west would also allow further strenghting.
| schmoo |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:15 PM |
|
TWC
|
Is TWC running Storm Stories like they did when Cindy came through New Orleans?
She was just a tropical storm as well but we had no Cantore.
Kinda funny -- I guess.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:15 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Models
|
Katrina seems to be moving due west now; if you look closely the center seems to be directly between the two storm forecast positions on the floater.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:16 PM |
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Re: Models
|
I see it, too. The link you gave showed the circulation just below "r" and "d". I updated my loop and it now shows it almost below and between the "e" and "r".
Isn't that the most scientific explanation you've ever heard??
Accuweather.com just showed the center...it almost looks like it's on top of the last "i" in Miami.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:17 PM |
|
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Re: Models
|
Chaos,
Check the time on what you're looking at. Sometimes sat lags radar from :30 to an hour or more.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:17 PM |
|
|
Re: NWS Miami
|
WXMAN RICHIE - I hope your weather station stays up (along with the power), nice to get data directly from someone only a few miles down the road verus the generic "Ft Lauderdale" weather which (I assume) is from acutally from Ft Laud/Hollywood Internation Airport and nearly 20 miles SE of me. However the pressure is already off the scale - so is there anyway you can tweak the scale? I guess the daily statistics will good enough. Once again thanks.
Looks like the forecast is right on track both in direction and intensity, aside from the slight wobbles all these storms have. A hit anywhere on the Broward Co coastline would be pretty much dead on in my book.
Everyone keeps saying its going to slow down and gain strenght but I just don't see it... it's almost on top of us now. So surely the interaction with the land is going stop it from any rapid intensification.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:21 PM |
|
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|
Re: Models
|
Hey Scott,
The U of WY has a pretty good model page on the UKMET model that allows you to play a bit with variables. It also updates faster than the FSU or PSU sites.
http://weather.uwyo.edu/models/fcst/ukmet.html
| RBL |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:23 PM |
|
Re: NWS Miami
|
Looks to the NBC6 Radar that is realtime and is closeup.
http://www.nbc6.net/wxmap/1195199/detail.html
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:28 PM |
|
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Re: NWS Miami
|
URNT12 KNHC 251800
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 25/1718Z
B. 26 DEG 12 MIN N
79 DEG 30 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1336 M
D. 50 KT
E. 340 DEG 20 NM
F. 073 DEG 64 KT
G. 343 DEG 16 NM
H. 990 MB
I. 19 C/ 1556 M
J. 22 C/ 1630 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. OPEN WEST
M. C12
N. 12345/8
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA3 0612A KATRINA OB 13
MAX FL WIND 64 KTS NW QUAD 1713Z
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:29 PM |
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Re: NWS Miami
|
New models out.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif
GFDL is still pushing it south, but not as much as before. It seems more in line with the percieved motion on Miami radar than the other tracks, and no longer a huge outlier at the same time, though it still has a sudden southward jog just before the coast.
Miami radar looks like the extrapolated track is now toward Miami.
--RC
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:30 PM |
Hurricane Katrina?
|
25/1745 UTC 26.2N 79.7W T4.0/4.0 KATRINA -- Atlantic Ocean
More evidence supporting a Hurricane Intensity!
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:35 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Katrina?
|
Did the NHC web site go down?
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:41 PM |
|
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Re: Hurricane Katrina?
|
With that huge pressure fall that we got this morning does that mean that the winds will come up in the 5pm adv ?
Live level 3 images of Katrina updated every 5mins
http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php?t=3356
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:41 PM |
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Re: A little confused
|
My bad, you are right. it is the definition of an eye and that is called so by NHC. Just not a very well formed one.
That aside, not really doing much to improve structure. I think 90 MPH at tops at landfall. Probably closer to 80. Will be interesting to see what happens on the other side of Florida. I suspect this will be a very bad rain event for most of S Florida. Small center. I would not expect much in the way of wind and surge damage. Would only worry about leaving home if in a trailer, weak structure or a flood prone area. However, that is just me and not any official advice.
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:42 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Katrina?
|
NHC is down for me too.
I'm in quite the pickle myself... I'm at UCF in Orlando, and I need to be in Jupiter tonight. I'd leave now, but with one more class and Katrina stalling/drifting further south, I think I can get away with holding out one more hour.
Before you say it, don't worry, I know what I'm up against and am not looking forward to driving through the bands. But alas, work is work
| Myles |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:43 PM |
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Re: NWS Miami
|
Quote:
Everyone keeps saying its going to slow down and gain strenght but I just don't see it... it's almost on top of us now. So surely the interaction with the land is going stop it from any rapid intensification.
I agree completely. It doesnt look like it will stall out right now, but from a few different radar loops it appears to be moving SW. Sat still seems to show a due west movement, but burst of deep convection did appear south of where you would think the center is. So its up in air where the hell this thing is really going.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:45 PM |
|
Re: Models
|
I'll believe the GFDL solution moreso than the UKMET solution, which I will disregard for the time being as 1) it has been one of -- if not the -- worst major dynamical model for TC forecasting over the past 3 years (after a stellar 2001) and 2) there's nothing to suggest that an reasonably deep TC will move SW in the Gulf like that. Even still, the storm is just 25 miles from shore -- or about 5hr -- and given no synoptic forcing to do so I cannot see this storm moving south into Miami, yet alone the Keys. The wobbles of the storm are largely that -- wobbles -- and the storm is overall on a 270 heading towards Ft. Lauderdale. Other than internal oscillations, the trough that was trying to impart a southward component of motion upon the storm has now passed it by, leaving weak steering currents in its wake. The storm should drift across Florida at about 5-6mph before slowing in the western part of the state or offshore as the trough in the northern US draws closer.
Landfall looks to be maybe 4-6hr earlier than the NHC forecasts from two days ago, which isn't a bad call at all, and right about at the same location. Again, other than to bump up the intensity forecast at landfall (as noted yesterday), I see no reason to change my forecast from Tuesday evening. I'll update it again tomorrow as we move past the first landfall and towards a second landfall on the north-central to northeast Gulf coast.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:45 PM |
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Re: NWS Miami
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the advisories are comming out every two hours; there is another advisory before 5pm, in about 15 minutes
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:54 PM |
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Re: NWS Miami
|
Good aft all.
Is the reason the eye wall has not been able to wrap around to the west due to influx of dry air?
Will be interesting to see 2pm (CDT) update.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 02:56 PM |
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Re: NWS Miami
|
It could well be. The overall environment is favorable, but there is a bit of dry air that is still infiltrating the system. This should gradually mix out and not be replaced, as the base of the trough to the N of the system (where the dry air largely has come from lately) has now passed the storm...but that'll be too late for any significant intensification over water.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:00 PM |
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Re: NWS Miami
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RSO floater now on storm....7 min shots..... noaa3 recon should have vortex report out soon
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:01 PM |
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Re: NWS Miami
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70mph at 2pm cdt west near 6 990mb
| rhendryx |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:04 PM |
|
Re: Models
|
In regards to the various models, someone asked this questions in the last couple days: Why is the NOGAPS model not receiving much discussion attention?
I must have missed and cannot find any resulting discussion from this question.
It seems like NOGAPS was the model of choice the last couple of years and now there seems to be no discussion of it and I am just wondering why?
Thanks!
Bob
| Hawkeyewx |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:05 PM |
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Re: NWS Miami
|
Katrina could have revved up pretty good but that dry pocket has continuously eroded the northern and western eyewall. One thing that appears to be happening now is the northeast through southwest sectors are filling in with heavy precip and if not for the upcoming landfall the strengthening band of precip attempting to wrap around the center could contract and become the new eyewall. There definitely seems to be a slow but steady movement just barely south of due west and Fort Lauderdale should be the approximate point of landfall later this evening.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:07 PM |
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Re: A little confused
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i dont see where everybody is getting south of west from--Katrina has moved due west right along 26.2 since 5am, and now it seems to actually be slowing down--it has been moving .1 degree per hour and in the last advisory has moved .1 degree in two hours
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:07 PM |
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Re: NWS Miami
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the ceneter looks real close to land if it dont slow it will hit before midnight for sure.The NHC has been right on so far but will be interesting to see the 5pm track with the new model runs out.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:19 PM |
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Re: NWS Miami
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I'm looking at IR on NASA's GHCC GOES anims. The track looks to be drifting southwest.
Click "submit" on my page to see the GOES loop
(I built a quicky PHP page to take a GET string and change it to a POST string needed for GHCC's GOES animator.)
--RC
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:20 PM |
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Re: NWS Miami
|
Well the NHC from 2 days ago is about 6-12 hours off,, just matter when landfall is. At 8pm tonight , they had it between Freeport and WPB but now they have it inland. Path,,well anyone can be off by 100 miles 2-3days out.
Anyways with the NOGAPS I mention that model almost everytime I forecast, so I dont know why you say its not being discussed rhendryx.
scottsvb
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:22 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up Vero South to Florida City
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Is there a chance this system could slowley pass south florida and enter the gulf and head back to the florida penensula like charley did. The NHC computer model is saying that right know
| kissy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:23 PM |
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Re: NWS Miami
|
Hi all! I read more than I post but figured I'd ask this. I'm close to MS/AL border and I notice that a couple of the models have moved landfall (once it's over florida) over to us. NOGAPS has been pretty good this year right? So overall for this board is the consensus still a florida landfall next week? Just curious! Thanks!
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:25 PM |
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Re: NWS Miami
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Well i have and i seen scott talk about it but yes there has not been alot of talk about it since it was a middle of the road model.
What i mean is it was right in the middle of the rest so nothing like the gdfl which since it was going way out on its own people have taslked about it alot as well as gfs since it was the worse case model it was talked alot about also.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:26 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up Vero South to Florida City
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what model do you show that? i have not seen one please post a link to it.
Man i wish we had that link sign
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:28 PM |
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Re: NWS Miami
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Quote:
Hi all! I read more than I post but figured I'd ask this. I'm close to MS/AL border and I notice that a couple of the models have moved landfall (once it's over florida) over to us. NOGAPS has been pretty good this year right? So overall for this board is the consensus still a florida landfall next week? Just curious! Thanks!
Well, all the models are somewhat accurate, and all the models have inaccuracies. A track 1 day out is usually pretty good, but as we can see with Katrina, even one day away we are having pretty big divergence. I wouldn't discount any model for this storm - none are real outliers.
In fact, of all the models and tracks out there, the one the NHC is predicting is the one that least matches any model concensus.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif
And NOGAPS (scroll down for the track): http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ngp/fcst/archive/05082500/29.html
And GFDL is looking like a really strong system: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfdl/katrina12l/fcst/archive/05082506/1.html
------
Looking at the Miami radar the system has resumed a westerly motion. It is as someone said earlier: stairstepping to the west southwest. I'd say landfall looks like it will be somewhere between Ft. Lauderdale and Miami.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kamx.shtml
--RC
| sprghill |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:34 PM |
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Re: NWS Miami
|
why are most of the models moving more west now after it leaves florida
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:37 PM |
|
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Re: NWS Miami
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would expect a major shift in 2nd landfall now.....would go with pensacola to panama city cat 1-2....in 5pm adv
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:37 PM |
|
Hurricane Katrina
|
Max Mayfield on CBS 4 just said Cat 1 Hurricane right now.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:37 PM |
|
Re: NWS Miami
|
My guess would be the faster landfall then the before idea of friday afternoon.
So IMO its the fasster movement of the system.
| teesda |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:39 PM |
|
Re: NWS Miami
|
Looks like the dry pocket to the N and NW are starting to fill in. Thank god that the storm does not have a lot of ocean to play with and not a lot of time to intensify.
| rhendryx |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:40 PM |
|
Re: NWS Miami
|
Scottsvb,
Yes, i have noticed you have mentioned NOGAPS.
1.You, Scott, seem to be one of the few mentioning it.
2.NOGAPS is not appearing in any of the "spaghetti runs" I have seen. I am looking at the same websites as years past, swf emergency management, boatus hurricane center, etc., and am not seeing NOGAPS in the "spaghetti runs". Maybe there is somewhere else to see it?
I have access to the NOGAPS model at this page: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
So, I know it is out there....my question is....Why is it not being included in these consolidated "spaghetti runs"?
Anybody else?
Thanks.
| Justin in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:42 PM |
|
Re: NWS Miami
|
Pressures are going down here in Ft. Lauderdale as well..steady rate...now 1001mb (at my house) Question: does it make a difference if my barometer is inside my house or outside for the most accurate reading?
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:42 PM |
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Re: NWS Miami
|
Quote:
why are most of the models moving more west now after it leaves florida
Models take into account current conditions throughout many layers of the atmosphere on both a global and local scale. These conditions change, and when a previous model run's +6 hour prediction doesn't match what happens 6 hours after the run, then the run 6 hours later will be different. What you are seeing is the models continually updating themselves, and thus pushing the storm further west, based on differences between actual conditions and what they had prediction the conditions would be.
If you want to read up on how the various tropical models work, take a look here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml
Frankly, hurricanes are very erratic systems, and very difficult for models to predict. Think of them as a spinning top that doesn't always go where you think it should.
A lot of this comes back to the action principle (also known as the Lagrangian). Any system will take the path of least action. Action includes energy and momentum. The problem is understanding what the conditions that effect the energy and momentum of a hurricane are, and accurately detecting them in the atmosphere. While dynamical models are good on normal systems, hurricanes just cause problems sometimes
.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:44 PM |
|
Re: Hurricane Warnings Up Vero South to Florida City
|
Dont expect this system to go that far west there is a high pressure building off the coast of texas so i think the computer models are going to far west. I agree with the NHC model which takes it more to the east then the other ones.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:44 PM |
|
Re: NWS Miami
|
some models have shifted quite west with three now aiming at the MS/AL line... this is quite a change from just 12 hours ago.. I wonder what they are seeing that would cause such a change.... I would imagine that the 5 day forecast would also reflect a minor shift to the left at 5:00 pm.... if IF IFIFIFIF this comes to fruition this could be setting up for a significant tropical cyclone for the northern gulf coast due to the extended time over the GOM and high SSTs... interesting development to say the least... but you all know that its probably going to change over time.... not quite ready to test out them brand new storm shutters I just built...
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:47 PM |
|
Re: Hurricane Warnings Up Vero South to Florida City
|
Quote:
Dont expect this system to go that far west there is a high pressure building off the coast of texas so i think the computer models are going to far west. I agree with the NHC model which takes it more to the east then the other ones.
the 5PM is not out yet wait till it comes out and see if they move it west more or keep it the same util then you just don't know.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:49 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Warnings Up Vero South to Florida City
|
High pressure turns clockwise--if there is one over Texas that would push it west, not north
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:50 PM |
|
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|
Hurricane Katrina
|
Hurricane Katrina is now official:
Full text: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT2+shtml/251940.shtml
HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
335 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTS AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATES
THAT TROPICAL STORM KATRINA HAS STRENGTHENED INTO A HURRICANE...
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 03:50 PM |
|
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Re: NWS Miami
|
velocity on my level 3 radar program is showing 60KT+ winds in the southern eyewall.
http://www.hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php?p=39774#post39774
| Joe |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 04:00 PM |
|
Re: NWS Miami
|
Much talk about the westward shift in the models this afternoon and for good reason. Although I doubt there is any major change in the track at 5pm as this is really the first run models have shifted to the west. I would much rather wait and see some consistency in the models before jumping to far west. Also Noaa9 high altitude aircraft is out there flying around now and this data will be put into the the 0z runs this evening, and may give a better read of the steering currents.
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 04:01 PM |
|
|
Re: Hurricane Katrina
|
I just checked the recon vortex date message and its still stuck on 1718z. You'd think they would update it a little faster....
| OcalaKT |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 04:03 PM |
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Re: NWS Miami
|
Looking at the Miami radar loop, it looks to me like it is making land fall right now. If I am reading this right, and the eye is the black area in the center, looks to be hitting Fort Lauderdale.
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 04:03 PM |
Re: HURRICANE
|
It's official. Hurricane Katrina is born.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 04:07 PM |
|
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Re: NWS Miami
|
Quote:
Looking at the Miami radar loop, it looks to me like it is making land fall right now. If I am reading this right, and the eye is the black area in the center, looks to be hitting Fort Lauderdale.
No, that black area is a dry air infusion to the east of the eye. The eye is between the A and the U in Lauderdale.
--RC
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 04:09 PM |
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Re: HURRICANE
|
do you know where i can find the 4pm position update without it showing the 2pm one instead?
| OcalaKT |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 04:14 PM |
|
|
|
Re: HURRICANE
|
ZCZC MIATCEAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE POSITION ESTIMATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2005
AT 4 PM EDT...2000Z... THE CENTER OF RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE
KATRINA WAS ESTIMATED BY NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA... AS
WELL NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM MIAMI...TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 26.2
NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.8 WEST... OR ABOUT 25 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF
FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 25 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BOCA
RATON FLORIDA.
FORECASTER STEWART
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 04:17 PM |
|
Re: NWS Miami
|
The spaghetti runs use easily available text output. The NOGAPS model (run by the Navy) does not do that for tropical cyclone tracking. Scripts must be run to have that output and usually, it's too much work for those creating those plots. NOGAPS has been one of the best models for tropical storms for the past few years and certainly bears credence...just because no one is really talking about it doesn't mean that much. Trust me when I say that the NHC is very much using it.
Creating a new thread shortly. Let's all move on over there.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 04:17 PM |
|
Re: HURRICANE
|
for the guy who wanted the new nogaps it is on this new 12z run and it also is taking it more west.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/late2.png
| rhendryx |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 04:21 PM |
|
Re: HURRICANE
|
Many thanks to clark, ralphfl and scott! Bob
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 04:22 PM |
|
Re: HURRICANE
|
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png
New 18z runs are out
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 04:23 PM |
|
|
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Re: NWS Miami
|
And off to the New Thread
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 25 2005 04:34 PM |
|
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FSU
|
EDIT:moved this post to new thread.