(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:38 AM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Regarding the initial recon - and the drop of 13mb. I thought earlier (sat images from about 3 hours ago) it looked like it was deepening and the eyewall area looking better on sat. Even with that dry air, and not being able to completely close the eye wall, and with only a 3deg differential (could that be from the weak NW side?) it is still doing it's darndest to intensify.

OK so with 91kt in the NW quad, and 950mb, don't you expect to see Cat 3 winds in the SE quad? And if so, then do you think a Cat 3 status even with the open eyewall? A pressure of 950mb would seem to put it squarely in that category.

Was there a post just before the new thread that mentioned the SW quad recon info? I'll have to go back and look.

OK thanks Storm Hunter.

Well whether officially Cat 3 now or not, it's very close. Makes you wonder if the pressure will drop to something more typical of a Cat 4 by morning, even if the winds don't catch up right away.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:40 AM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

MF243 M0839 MF104 on outbound as noted.

24.3 83.9 Max. Fl Winds 104 kts....... she's a cooking!

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:50 AM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Now that I think about it. The 104 kt wind in the SE Quad. Could be from a convective tower/ spot wind gust.
No you generally see the Highest wind speeds in the NE Quadrant, in the Northern Hemisphere. Or the Right Front Quadrant, relative to the storm's heading. In this case, with Katrina heading WSW, the NW Quad...might have the highest winds. With an elongated, "open NNW", eyewall one would think that the winds wouldn't be maxed out in that area.

Coincidentally. I pulled up a Vortex report from Hurricane Andrew. At roughly the same longitude (83.6W), Andrew was at ( 25.8N) or about 80-90 miles further North.
Andrew's pressure was extrapolated to 946mbclose!, and the winds (line 'F') were 98kts with a(line 'Q') Max Flt Lvl wind of 121kts, taken 1 hr and 24min earlier.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:57 AM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

from what i think i can tell, so far the plane is flying at 10,000ft, and is in the NE quad, fixing to turn and head sw or is already..... i noticed in a report a little while ago, they reported severe turbulence..in clear air..infrequent...on obs 7. wonder on next pass what the alt will be?

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:59 AM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Using the 11 PM EDT Wind speed chart from NHC.
They are forecasting Katrina to be at or above 110mph in 6 hours.
115 mph in 12 hours.
Peaked at 135mph in 24 hours...or at 11 PM EDT Saturday Night.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/025402.shtml?chart?large

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:02 AM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

It sounds like from the posts I have been catching up on plus the existing satellite pictures, that Kat is not making that northward turn yet. Could she be a Mexico Event in the making? It does seem like everything has gone to Mexico or the Texas border since Dennis.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:10 AM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

From your post: "Now that I think about it. The 104 kt wind in the SE Quad. Could be from a convective tower/ spot wind gust."

Yes you can still see this thing on Key West long-range and there is strong convection in the SE eyewall.

OK so not quite at Cat 3 even though it is still trying to get there. I just went back and looked and pressure has dropped almost 40mb since 7am Friday morning, and winds have increased from 75mph to 110mph, so that isn't shabby.

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:11 AM

T numbers

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
27/0615 UT 24.4N 84.1W T6.0/6.0 KATRINA -- Atlantic Ocean

that supports 115Kt winds, so everything seems to be signalling a cat... 4 by tomorrow afternoon?

and to think 24 hours ago, this storm was just exiting land as a (strong) tropical storm?

(By support, I don't mean to imply that the storm actually does have 115Kt winds... just what the T numbers would seem to be signalling
-Mark

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:27 AM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Someone posted this earlier, but I'll repeat it.
Long Range Radar has it's benefits.
But at 256nm you are looking Way up into the storm.

Using a 0.5 deg elavation(standard elevation).
At 256miles has a Top Height of 28100ft.
And a Bottom Height of 14500ft.

Normal Range 125miles:
Has A Top Height of 24200ft.
And A Bottom Height of 11800 ft.

You will still get some idea of what is taking place but if the Radar were moved closer to the storm it would look much different.
http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/misc/beamwidth/beamwidth.html

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:30 AM

Oops She Closed the Eyewall Off!!

URNT12 KNHC 270722
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/07:10:40Z
B. 24 deg 27 min N
084 deg 07 min W
C. 700 mb 2646 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 146 deg 104 kt
G. 051 deg 008 nm
H. 949 mb
I. 13 C/ 3045 m
J. 17 C/ 3047 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C14
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1212A KATRINA OB 10
MAX FL WIND 104 KT NE QUAD 07:08:10 Z
STRONG BANDING IN NE QUAD

I checked this run against the first pass thru the Eye. The 104kt wind is consistant with the wind speeds prior to it and after it. The earlier report didn't look right. I'm not questioning their data...just my eyes~danielw

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:31 AM

Re: Oops She Closed the Eyewall Off!!

27/0806z
Vortex-abbreviated.
pressure down to 945mb down 4mb in an hour!
closed eye wall
12nm miles diameter
Max Flt Lvl winds at 0708Z-104kt

I hope she doesn't continue with these pressure drops. The satellites are back up and the eye is easily seen.

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:35 AM

Re: Oops She Closed the Eyewall Off!!

How much further south do you believe the Hurricane will drop before turning back North. And, do you think it will turn Clockwise or counter clockwise when it starts its turn?

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:38 AM

Re: Oops She Closed the Eyewall Off!!

have we reached 'rapid intensification' yet?

45 mb drop in about 26 hours, and still going. eyeballing everything, sat and radar... I'm pegging a 280 motion the last couple of hours... another couple of hours and I'll be more than a wobble, it'll be the new heading. for the short term, it looks like the NHC has the direction right, (the intensity.... well, can't blame them for thinking it'd take longer to get together...)

if they have this one pegged on direction, give them all the credit in the world because this has been a difficult storm to project.

-Mark

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:51 AM

5AM info

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 84.4W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.

***
I wonder if they use 3 or 6 hour averages for motion.
-Mark

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:59 AM

Position

0553Z 24.23N./ 83.59W
0710Z 24.27N/ 84.07W
0823Z 24.23N/ 84.17W

North wobble was there. Back on 24.23N now.
West +0.18min or 0.3deg, over 2h13min.
using 65miles per degree that would be 19.5miles/ 2.2=8.9mph

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:02 AM

Re: 5AM info

Quote:

I wonder if they use 3 or 6 hour averages for motion.
-Mark

I think they might use the average since the last advisory which would be 3 hours in this case but no reason other than that makes sense.

Is it just me, or did some of the computer models (not all, but a few) shift back eastward a tad? It brings them more in line with the other models but it's a disturbing trend for me.

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:10 AM

NHC Models

Interesting note on the 06Z NHC models.
At 48 hrs they have the wind speed at 123kts/ 141mph.
Somewhere between 26.8-27.3/ 88.4-90.4 offshore

At 72 hours they are forecasting 124 kts-143mph.
Somewhere between 31.0-32.9/ 84.7-91.0 well inland

That would appear to indicate an increase in wind speed before landfall. For the winds to be 1 mph above the overwater speed. Am I reading that right?

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:13 AM

Re: NHC Models

Quote:

Interesting note on the 06Z NHC models.
At 48 hrs they have the wind speed at 123kts/ 141mph.
Somewhere between 26.8-27.3/ 88.4-90.4 offshore

At 72 hours they are forecasting 124 kts-143mph.
Somewhere between 31.0-32.9/ 84.7-91.0 well inland

That would appear to indicate an increase in wind speed before landfall. For the winds to be 1 mph above the overwater speed. Am I reading that right?

What I read is 120 knots shortly before landfall, then the next position is well inland at 75 knots.

Edit: latest IR image shows more southerly motion still.

Edit2: Looking at the last 2 water vapor images I see something coming from the north dropping down into south central Alabama - could this be the trough that will ultimately take Katrina away from its home in the hot GOM? Opinions anyone?

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:20 AM

5 AM Discussion

HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2005 (edited~danielw)
..KATRINA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE WITH 115 MPH WINDS...

THE EYE HAS BECOME CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS IN
GOES-12 INFRARED IMAGERY. AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE INDICATES THE
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS FALLING... MOST RECENTLY MEASURED AT
945 MB. WHILE SUCH A LOW PRESSURE IS TYPICAL OF SOME CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANES... THE MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAVE NOT YET
EXCEEDED 104 KT WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 95 KT AT THE SURFACE.
GIVEN THE FALLING PRESSURE... AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 100 TO 115 KT... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE
INCREASED TO 100 KT... MAKING KATRINA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT
KATRINA HAS GROWN IN SIZE... WHICH PERHAPS EXPLAINS WHY THE MAXIMUM
WINDS HAVE NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE INITIAL
AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY...

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:21 AM

Re: 5 AM Discussion

Quote:

THE ADVISORY INTENSITY WILL BE
INCREASED TO 100 KT... MAKING KATRINA A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE.
THE AIRCRAFT DATA AND A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ALSO INDICATE THAT
KATRINA HAS GROWN IN SIZE... WHICH PERHAPS EXPLAINS WHY THE MAXIMUM
WINDS HAVE NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE. THE INITIAL
AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY

I guess satellites can be deceiving because the water vapor shows a tighter circulation to me.

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:28 AM

Re: 5 AM Advisory

AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE KATRINA WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST OR ABOUT 435 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 165 MILES WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

So IF Katrina were to take a straight line for the mouth of the MS River.
435 miles divided by 7mph=62 hours til landfall. That's still looking like Monday Noon.
For the Eye to reach land! Wind and rain will precede the Eye by many hours

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:30 AM

Re: Oops She Closed the Eyewall Off!!

I had insomnia, called my brother who was on night shift, and stayed up to read the 5am discussion.

Was surprised to see that 945mb reading. So just as soon as the eyewall was closed, this thing started to take off.

The discussion had good reasoning for going to Cat 3 and with 945mb it is hard to imagine the winds not catching up.

Do you think there was an ERC during the recent intensification, or is it just that the eye is clearing out now that the eyewall is closed, and that is why it appears larger?

Movement seems straight W now. No big wobbles like before so maybe intensification is done for now.

Next recon ought to report prior to the 11am and then the 3 hour fixes will have started. So if this thing keeps cooking I guess we'll be seeing something very impressive by then. It is hard to know how far to guess on intensity because anything seems possible. I guess I could say that when I wake up tomorrow and looked at the 11am (and at this point I don't know how I'm going to be able to get up much earlier than that!), would I even be surprised to see maybe 925mb? That seems outlandish, but with this thing finally in position to intensify as much as it is capable of, who knows.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:31 AM

Re: 5 AM Advisory

Quote:

So IF Katrina were to take a straight line for the mouth of the MS River.
435 miles divided by 7mph=62 hours til landfall. That's still looking like Monday Noon.
For the Eye to reach land! Wind and rain will precede the Eye by many hours

Do you think it's going to move on a straight line in that direction starting now?

I think Monday evening/Tuesday morning is more likely but it could pick up speed - forward speed that is.

Edit:: latest water vapor shows some moisture forming well NW of Katrina but well east of the "feeder band" to Katrina's west. it's been sporadic but if it ever becomes consistent it might be a sign of the trough digging in to push Katrina northward?

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:35 AM

Re: Oops She Closed the Eyewall Off!!

Quote:

I
Next recon ought to report prior to the 11am and then the 3 hour fixes will have started. So if this thing keeps cooking I guess we'll be seeing something very impressive by then. It is hard to know how far to guess on intensity because anything seems possible. I guess I could say that when I wake up tomorrow and looked at the 11am (and at this point I don't know how I'm going to be able to get up much earlier than that!), would I even be surprised to see maybe 925mb? That seems outlandish, but with this thing finally in position to intensify as much as it is capable of, who knows.

That sounds reasonable to me. Going back to bed, I mean! LOL

IF the current trend continues - a big if - Katrina could be approaching cat 4 within 12 hours I fear. Next recon, I expect pressure to be 925-930 and continuing to drop.

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:44 AM

Re: Oops She Closed the Eyewall Off!!

No that was purely hypothetical.
I just checked the GOM buoys all the way to Corpus Christi, TX. They are All showing a non-diurnal drop in pressure. Beginning at around 02Z last night.
Now these are surface pressures, and have nothing to do with the steering currents. Where's a MET?

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:47 AM

Re: Oops She Closed the Eyewall Off!!

Quote:

No that was purely hypothetical.
I just checked the GOM buoys all the way to Corpus Christi, TX. They are All showing a non-diurnal drop in pressure. Beginning at around 02Z last night.
Now these are surface pressures, and have nothing to do with the steering currents. Where's a MET?

How much is the pressure dropping out that far? I suspect the METs are catching some Zs in preparation for a heck of a weekend.

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:07 AM

Buoy Pressure Drops

Buoy 42002. At 25.17 N 94.42 W
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/images/Maps/WestGulf.jpg

Is showing a 4.3mb pressure drop. compared to 24 and 48 hours ago at the same time.

It's 548nm at 277degrees from the 5 AM EDT Position.

I saw a 106kt wind speed in the last hour...This is Not looking good!
And I think I see a 940mb? reading in one of the dropsonde reports.

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:21 AM

Pressure drop!

New Vortex. 0932Z
That 940mb reading was correct!
Closed wall at 10 nm diameter.
Max Flt Lvl Wind 104kt NE Quad (earlier at 0708Z)
Note**SMALL HAIL SE EYEWALL (Usually a Bad Sign, Seen In Dennis-'05)

Steve H1

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:50 AM

Re: Pressure drop!

Still looks she's headed for NO according to the models. Question is will the ridge break down? she seems to have slowed her forward motion this morning. Will she begin the north turn today or meander a bit. Waiting for 12Z model runs to check out any changes, if any. In the meantime, 90L is getting better organized and is at a lower latitude then 97L. Check out the wave about to exit Africa. This will be our next invest. Cheers!!

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:30 AM

Re: Pressure drop!

Tiny jog to the south in a couple of the last frames of the IR... I know jogs don't indicate motion, but as south as Katrina has wanted to go, it's worth thinking about. I was not surprised to see the slighly westward shift to the NHC track... however, it was not as large as I was hoping for, probably because motion was due west from 2am-5am. Again, the longer the west motion, the later the turn, the more west the track will shift. As things stand right now, I expect NO to turn into total chaos. The annoying part is I really don't want to evacuate, but pressure from family will encourage this behavior. If things are going to change, they better do so quickly to prevent people in NO (my mom included) from going psycho.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:40 AM

Re: Pressure drop!

Quote:

Tiny jog to the south in a couple of the last frames of the IR... I know jogs don't indicate motion, but as south as Katrina has wanted to go, it's worth thinking about. I was not surprised to see the slighly westward shift to the NHC track... however, it was not as large as I was hoping for, probably because motion was due west from 2am-5am. Again, the longer the west motion, the later the turn, the more west the track will shift. As things stand right now, I expect NO to turn into total chaos. The annoying part is I really don't want to evacuate, but pressure from family will encourage this behavior. If things are going to change, they better do so quickly to prevent people in NO (my mom included) from going psycho.

If people in N.O. don't LEAVE now... they won't be able to get out in time, I'm afraid. The time for going psycho if you live there was about 12 hours ago. By the time Katrina makes her move - if that's where it decides to go - it will be too late to do anything but pray really hard, I'm afraid.

Having said that, it's too early to say that Katrina will even effect N.O.

Update: Just looked at the model runs - some of which have been updated. They are now tightening around or just to the east of New Orleans. It just seems to be getting worse for the Louisiana delta.

Also see a tiny northward jog in the last two or three images on the WV loop, before that it was a south jog so that is a wash. The eye has filled in, probably the result of EWR, so when it comes back Katrina will likely strengthen. Weather channel is saying 940 pressure but the recon I just read says 942 - but is labelled "Preliminary!"

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:45 AM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

#98 Published Friday August 26, 2005 at 7:00 am EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm

(off topic material removed)

At the 5:00 am EDT advisory Hurricane Katrina has become a CAT 3 115 mph hurricane. She is now easing onto a west heading or 265 deg.

I will elaborate in greater detail later this morning but I still do not buy the continued westward NHC TPC track and a landfall on New Orleans.

I am shifting my landfall window back a little eastward and widening it a bit too to between Mobile, AL and Fort Walton Beach, FL with a bulls eye on Gulf Breeze, FL. Once again I never chase model changes, live by the model die by the model.

I still think the easier forecast of the two is intensity. With very warm Gulf Of Mexico water temperature including the loop current ahead and as very little wind shear is forecasted, Katrina could easily reach a strong CAT 4 before landfall. But she could weaken back to a CAT 3 after leaving the loop current and also due to increased wind shear, prior to landfall, much like CAT 4 Opal did in 1995.

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:48 AM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

I agree i dont see a cat 4 at landfall.All things point to this getting up to a 4 then right before landfall the air getting sucked out of her by shear.I hope its enough to bring her down to a 2 but i dont see her being a 4 at landfall due to speed and the shear that is suppose to be present.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:49 AM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

I am shifting my landfall window back a little eastward and widening it a bit too to between Mobile, AL and Fort Walton Beach, FL with a bulls eye on Gulf Breeze, FL. Once again I never chase model changes, live by the model die by the model.
I still think the easier forecast of the two is intensity. With very warm Gulf Of Mexico water temperature including the loop current ahead and as very little wind shear is forecasted, Katrina could easily reach a strong CAT 4 before landfall. But she could weaken back to a CAT 3 after leaving the loop current and also due to increased wind shear, prior to landfall, much like CAT 4 Opal did in 1995.

Do you just hate me or something? :P
What is your reasoning for punishng me thusly? (I live north of FWB).

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:50 AM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

Do you just hate me or something? :P
What is your reasoning for punishng me thusly? (I live north of FWB).

ETA to Ralph: Where do you see landfall happening? If it turned toward me, I think weakening is inevitable due to shear and the fact that every storm has weakened.

TDW

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:53 AM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

It seems that most of the recent Northen GOM storms have made a slight jog NE just before landfall. That's saved us here in Mobile, but may hurt us this tme.

ftlaudbob

(Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:56 AM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

If it were me in N.O.,I would leave.They say N.O. is the city that never should have been built.I had her as a cat 1,can't even imagin how bad it will be as a 4.Good luck to all.

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:58 AM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

Do you just hate me or something? :P
What is your reasoning for punishng me thusly? (I live north of FWB).

Personally i see this going back to mobile area and only a 3 when it gets to shore and a low 3 due to shear but again i just think that by looking at the models and trends and also the shear that is to be present and history with storms that like to lose it right beofre landfall there.

Have a good day off for the day.

Frank P

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:59 AM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Per the NHC IR floater she hit the first forecast point head on... gut wretching thing looking at the forecast points on this loop down the road....esp for NO... I'll be 57 miles east of its projected landfall point..... It that were guaranteed in writing I would ride it out... but just the potential for a deviation to the east is not an acceptable risk for me attm for a storm with its projected intensity... still plenty of time... to prepare, worry, monitor, evacuate, and pray....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

meto

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 12:11 PM

Re: Pressure drop!

yes im afraid we will have two monsters on our hands. in a few days, the waver near 11.0 and the one just about to exit. and they both will be south of c.v.

javlin

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 12:12 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Look at the GHCC site Frank looking 24.5'N and 84.7'W maybe that dreaded "w" world but I did the 10:45 shot and the 11:15 both just alittle further N.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

I know what you mean tracks I would suspect should deviate little E and W from here on out.

Sneakbridge

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 12:17 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

That looks quite awful for N.O. then. Hopefully it will weaken some. I was very surprised it didn't lose more over the southern tip of Florida. That travel over land didn't seem to bother Katrina at all.

javlin

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 12:20 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Some wind shear forcast maps out to 72hrs not the best conditions but also not all that bad.When she builds a little more she might create some of her own enviroment.

http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 12:28 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

That looks quite awful for N.O. then. Hopefully it will weaken some. I was very surprised it didn't lose more over the southern tip of Florida. That travel over land didn't seem to bother Katrina at all.

Travel over the Everglades is not like moving over Central Florida. It does not degrade hurricanes very much.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 12:32 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

From experience with Dennis and Ivan, both storms ended up further East than what was projected. Can't go by the models. Everyone up here should be prepared. Ivan was projected to hit the MS/AL line and ended up hitting the AL/FL line. Dennis was expected to hit Mobile (the West side of AL) and he hit one country to the East of Pensacola.

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 12:35 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

The models are shifting a bit eastward again...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_model.html

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 12:35 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

FYI.... Cantore is in Biloxi.... Stephanie Abrams in Gulf Shores....

Steve

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 12:36 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

>>From exprience with Dennis and Ivan, both storms ended up further East than what was projected. Can't go by the models. Everyone up here should be prepared.

I agree with that. Even if the 5am landfall track held, you guys all the way to Ft. Walton & Destin would be in on at least close to tropical storm winds. I thnk she's going in east of here but not as far east as I originally thought. If I'm anywhere between Cocodrie and Destin right now, I'm weighing my options and figuring out what I'm going to do. I gotta go to the store this morning then hook up with my dad to find out what his final decision is then clean up the yard of debris. I'm sure most of you on the northern Gulf can relate.

Steve

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 12:39 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Wow..what a horrible day to be boarding up..95 degrees, I can't wait...this track reminds me so much of Ivan, and I really hate it that we are just about to lose long range radar....unlike Dennis thou, there has been no recent upwelling of water in the Gulf and the temps all the way to the coast are very warm..and the slow speed is going to create a huge storm surge for somebody, possibly all across the central and NE gulf coast

(User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 12:42 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

three observations:
that has got to be one of the weirdest wind/pressure relationships i've seen. the storm has been steadily intensifying.. the pressure has fallen to a level more commonly associated with 145mph winds. it is barely category 3 by recon data. there is usually some lag in wind/pressure.. but not like that.
radar obs out of key west are showing a strange inner core structure. the station is far away, but the echoes indicate concentric eyewall type-structure.. with a tiny inner eyewall, a huge gap in the rain shield, then an outer eyewall.
pair these structural oddities and it has me thinking that the storm has entrained a ton of subsidence. there is more feeding from the north.. but this first patch that it started on yesterday is mostly sucked down and probably being worked out. in spite of that the pressure continues to fall. katrina will probably go through an eyewall replacement cycle and adjust to a more conventional wind/pressure relationship in the coming hours.
i'll respond to something ralph said earlier about weakening... that hurricanes past their peak tend to weaken as they near the shore. when you look at the climatology of recurving hurricanes in the gulf, their weakening phase usually begins as they pass the ridge axis. the ridge axis right now is right along the coast.. and is forecast for the coming days to remain pretty much at the coast or just south of it. of the comparisons given.. opal was an october hurricane that was caught by the trough that had been baroclinically enhancing it and sheared badly, and ivan passed the ridge axis a couple of days before landfall and had a good while to spin down. on the forecast track katrina will be passing the ridge axis as it makes landfall, so by that token it would be very close to maximum intensity.
as of right now the subsidence entrainment should continue for the next day or so, peaking again late today. after that (sunday into monday) the environment should be very close to ideal for katrina to intensify. i wouldn't be surprised if katrina approaches or reaches category 5 at some point on sunday.
going to hang tight at the ms/al border. that's what i should have been doing all along. going to stick w/ a strong 3 because it's a compromise between original ideas and what i'd forecast now.
HF 1242z27august

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 12:44 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

Wow..what a horrible day to be boarding up..95 degrees, I can't wait...this track reminds me so much of Ivan, and I really hate it that we are just about to lose long range radar....unlike Dennis thou, there has been no recent upwelling of water in the Gulf and the temps all the way to the coast are very warm..and the slow speed is going to create a huge storm surge for somebody, possibly all across the central and NE gulf coast

I think you can wait until tomorrow to board up in Pensacola - maybe, anyway - from the standpoint of having time to just board up (if you're not going anywhere but just putting boards up). I *really* hope that Katrina does not hit Pensacola. Nothing against New Orleans, but Pensacola still has not fully recovered from Ivan and, well, Pensacola landfall would put me just outside of the really nasty stuff (140+ MPH winds projected).

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 12:45 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Thanks susie. Goes to show these models still don't really have a good handle still. It's going to depend on when the North turn takes place and I expect a NNE turn could happen before landfall.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 12:49 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

caught by the trough that had been baroclinically enhancing it and sheared badly, and ivan passed the ridge axis a couple of days before landfall and had a good while to spin down. on the forecast track katrina will be passing the ridge axis as it makes landfall, so by that token it would be very close to maximum intensity.
as of right now the subsidence entrainment should continue for the next day or so, peaking again late today. after that (sunday into monday) the environment should be very close to ideal for katrina to intensify. i wouldn't be surprised if katrina approaches or reaches category 5 at some point on sunday.
going to hang tight at the ms/al border. that's what i should have been doing all along. going to stick w/ a strong 3 because it's a compromise between original ideas and what i'd forecast now.
HF 1242z27august

Good luck. I'm enough inland that I would not leave even if it were a Cat 5 headed straight for me, but I wouldn't advise most people in the path to do that. I'll go along with your "now" forecast based upon what I'm seeing as far as intensity, despite the fact that Opal/Ivan/Dennis weakened as it came onshore. Near or slghtly above Cat 5 threshhold seems realistic right now with the deepening trend.
my now would be a low end 4. i'm playing a little weakening into the odds, because hurricanes almost never hit at full power. the strong 3 is a compromise. since you're in okaloosa i wouldn't worry too terribly much. unless you're in a mobile home and can animatedly describe 'tar-naders' and ufos to the local news in the worst of southern pidgin, you should be OK. -HF

TDW

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 12:55 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Hugh, is there really anywhere in Okaloosa County that is far enough inland if it took a direct hit?
it goes to the alabama border. yeah, in a strong structure you could weather that. -HF

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 12:59 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

Hugh, is there really anywhere in Okaloosa County that is far enough inland if it took a direct hit?

Well, when I say "far enough inland", I'm assuming that it will weaken substantially. I'm in Valparaiso, and on top of a fairly big hill so I'm away from the bayou (which will flood most of the area). When I say far enough inland, I'm referring to flood threats - which is mostly reduced by living on this hill.

Tornados would be a big problem, and we'd probably get 100+ knot (115 MPH) sustained winds if a Cat 5 made landfall at FWB, but it would do lots more damage to FWB/Destin than here.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 01:02 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Hmm, these 2 storms look a lot alike. Don't they?
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2005/katrina8.jpg

http://www.geocities.com/hurricanene/camille.jpg

Katie

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 01:03 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

(removed material that should have been sent in a PM)

NO hit....I wouldn't want to be up there. This isn't looking very good for NO at all. I have noticed that the "cone" has narrowed a lot in the last 24 hours.

Why won't she just start moving? It seems like she has just been in the same place for while now. Enough is enough.

For those of you in the NO area...good luck. Know that a Southern gal in Central Florida (along with Colleen's kids) will be praying for you!

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 01:04 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

Quote:

my now would be a low end 4. i'm playing a little weakening into the odds, because hurricanes almost never hit at full power. the strong 3 is a compromise. since you're in okaloosa i wouldn't worry too terribly much. unless you're in a mobile home and can animatedly describe 'tar-naders' and ufos to the local news in the worst of southern pidgin, you should be OK. -HF

Exactly. Although I do know people who are in a mobile home. They can't animatedly describe "tar-naders" though, and I've never discussed UFOs with them!

Cantore just mentioned Elena. I remember Elena. Elena was not pleasant. Katrina is no Elena (she's much worse! ).

ETA:
I keep going back to the water vapor loop. Now it's looking like moisture is beginning to form and loop back into Katrina from the north. In other words, a hurricane that was lopsided with most of its nasty stuff on the south yesterday looks like it may be getting its act together - getting better organized to use the technical term
Now, something just does not feel right about saying that a cat 3 hurricane is getting better organized. Is the buildup of "wet" air to the north a sign that the north turn may be beginning soon, or am I paranoid?

ETA2: I just noticed that it looks like it's just growing and growing and growing - it's actually expanded more to the SOUTH than it has to the NORTH. Egads, this is getting HUGE!!!!

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 27 2005 01:14 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

I just looked at the GFS 60-hour cumulative rainfall model for 102 hours out (about a day and a half after expected landfall). Even if you aren't anywhere near this thing, expect major flooding:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/images/gfs_p60_102l.gif

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 01:23 PM

Worst Case Scenario for NO

Worst Case Scenario

"The worst case is a hurricane moving in from due south of the city," said Suhayda, who has developed a computer simulation of the flooding from such a storm. On that track, winds on the outer edges of a huge storm system would be pushing water in Breton Sound and west of the Chandeleur Islands into the St. Bernard marshes and then Lake Pontchartrain for two days before landfall.

MrSpock

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 01:25 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

One thing that makes me think the westward adjustments should not continue is based on persistence forecasting. Granted, this is not a good way to make accurate forecasts, but can be generally useful. For example, back in 1996 ( I am sure Phil remembers this) any shortwave that moved towards the east coast generated a snow storm, even innocuous looking weaklings. It wanted to snow, and it wanted to snow over my house, and it did to the tune of 66" for the year.
Since last year, the NE GOM has a bullseye on it. Even without tropical systems, rainfall anomalies are in a well-defined pattern. It is illustrated by the drought monitor map at the link below:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
Recent climatology suggests the biggest impact will be east of the Mississippi. Eventually, this analog will no longer work, but I go with them until they do not. You can pretty much see by that map the mean position of the offshore high. That doesn't mean I think NO is out of the woods, just that I don't expect forecasts to keep shifting west.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 01:30 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

Recent climatology suggests the biggest impact will be east of the Mississippi. Eventually, this analog will no longer work, but I go with them until they do not. You can pretty much see by that map the mean position of the offshore high. That doesn't mean I think NO is out of the woods, just that I don't expect forecasts to keep shifting west.
P.S. to anyone who lives in that area: Try to get Jim Cantore and Stephanie Abrams banned from your towns. Hurricanes only hit where they sit.

Reminds me of the jokes from last year about Florida. But, it makes good sense.

kissy

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 01:31 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Well I can honestly say that I didn't get real nervous until I notcied Jim Cantore in Biloxi.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 01:31 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Good morning from Atlanta.....

In watching all our local mets and following the many different shifts in computer models, I have to feel 3 things........

1) I still think that the entire Gulf Coast from Galveston to the Big Bend is still in play until Katrina starts to make the forecast Northerly turn. With the history of this storm, it seems that Kat does not follow conventional logic or what we are used to with tropical systems. This storm is going to be studied and studied on what caused it to act the way it is. With that being said...If your local EOC tells you to evacuate, then by all means EVACUATE! That's their job to protect and save lives and a little inconvience now could save many lives.

2) I have to call onto the carpet the local TV mets here in Atlanta stating on the 11pm news that we are out of the woods here in Atlanta for any flooding rain or severe weather. Just because Kat did not produce any severe weather in the right front quadrant when she made her inital landfall, DOES NOT mean that it wont happen with the second landfall. The NWS office in Peachtree City is still calling for 4-7 inches of rain and the only thing that has changed from their forecast is the timing of that occurance.

3) I have a nagging question that someone could answer for me.....a) Would it be entirely possible that Katrina could just stay on a westerly course and go right into Mexico?

Be vigilant everyone and Thanks....

Jeff in Atlanta

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 01:36 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

3) I have a nagging question that someone could answer for me.....a) Would it be entirely possible that Katrina could just stay on a westerly course and go right into Mexico?

Disclaimer: I'm not a MET so this is just my speculation

Is it possible? Yes, ANYTHING is possible with Katrina.

It's not going to happen, though. It might take a week, but a second U.S. landfall seems certain - somewhere between Texas and Key West.

ETA: If there's a MET online, I've got a question for speculation. Could Katrina pull an Opal? I mean, head northwest toward New Orleans, but then get swept up and thrown northeast (not NNE, but NE) and hit the Panhandle? Several people are saying a Panhandle landfall isn't out of the question, but what I'm referring to is the storm moving past us here, but then swinging sharply back to the NE, potentially even wrecking havok on N.O. in the process.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 01:37 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

Hmm, these 2 storms look a lot alike. Don't they?

SirCane, Camille had more of that "buzzsaw" look, even on its feeder bands..
but it is something to ponder as we watch the pressure dropping.

Katrina
21 GMT 08/26/05 24.8N 82.9W 100 965 Category 2 Hurricane
03 GMT 08/27/05 24.6N 83.6W 105 965 Category 2 Hurricane
09 GMT 08/27/05 24.4N 84.4W 115 945 Category 3 Hurricane
12 GMT 08/27/05 24.4N 84.6W 115 940 Category 3 Hurricane

Camille
12 GMT 8/15/69 20.7N 83.8W 100 970 Category 2 Hurricane
18 GMT 8/15/69 21.2N 84.1W 115 964 Category 3 Hurricane
0 GMT 8/16/69 22.3N 84.4W 105 -999 Category 2 Hurricane
6 GMT 8/16/69 23.1N 85.2W 120 -999 Category 3 Hurricane
12 GMT 8/16/69 23.7N 85.9W 140 -999 Category 4 Hurricane
18 GMT 8/16/69 24.2N 86.5W 150 908 Category 4 Hurricane
0 GMT 8/17/69 25.2N 87.2W 160 905 Category 5 Hurricane
6 GMT 8/17/69 26.0N 87.7W 180 -999 Category 5 Hurricane
12 GMT 8/17/69 27.0N 88.2W 185 -999 Category 5 Hurricane
18 GMT 8/17/69 28.3N 88.7W 190 -999 Category 5 Hurricane
0 GMT 8/18/69 29.4N 89.1W 190 909 Category 5 Hurricane

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 01:38 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Phase 1 evacuation of Plaquemines Parish as of 9AM this morning.

Jefferson Parish is holding a news conference at noon, hopefully with the governor and mayor of NO... They will make recommendations at that time.

Contra-Slow is far off according to Jeff. Parish officials.... They want to give people time to move around. I did hear that because MS will need to evacuate too, that will present a problem for the Contra-Slow plan.

CaneTrackerInSoFl

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 01:57 PM

Well, everyone...

I am back. Katrina knocked out my power from Thursday to this morning at 510 AM. I took quite a few pics of it from my viewpoint in Kendall:

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/capefish1/...fish1/my_photos

We had tremendous flooding. I drove through Coral Gables and Coconut Grove afterwards and the amount of trees down was immense. It was unreal all the trees that were down. And many of them were on top of people's homes!

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 27 2005 01:59 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

The last hour or so has seen the eye moving just slightly north of west on IR. The eye itself is looking ragged on both IR and WV, but it is probably just a cycle within the hurricane and in a few hours it will become well defined again. The system itself looks to be pulling itself into a tighter circulation. This isn't good news in my mind.

Waiting for the 11am NHC update.

--RC

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:00 PM

Re: Well, everyone...

N.O. lucks out a lot. I remember N.O. evacuating for Georges and then it missed them. They did the same for Ivan if I'm not mistaken.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:08 PM

Re: Well, everyone...

ok..anyone got an explanation for the shift of the morning model runs to the east? I hate shifts to the east...and most models now are east of NO and starting to head for Bama.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:12 PM

Re: Well, everyone...

Quote:

ok..anyone got an explanation for the shift of the morning model runs to the east? I hate shifts to the east...and most models now are east of NO and starting to head for Bama.

I do NOT like that trend.

My thinking is this: The earlier models were accurate. Then they shifted due to temporary changes, but they over-shifted. I hate it, but it's what I believe is true.

MikeC

(Admin)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:21 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Katrina is still a bit uncertain, yes some parts near New Orleans are beginning to take actions. I'm not exactly sure where it will go. I have more doubts about Katrina than most others.

Model consensus from LA to the Western Florida Panhandle is the best guess at the moment.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:24 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Is it just me or do I see a WNW motion starting?

Sneakbridge

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:24 PM

Re: Well, everyone...

The sat. pictures are impressive. It keeps growing in size. Impressive to see the outer clouds touching Florida, Cuba, and the Yucatan.

This is a very cool site, and I've enjoyed reading the discussions.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:25 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Guess what? Navy NRL's taken their normal track graphic off and stuck up a model track graphic!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/ATL/12L.KATRINA/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html

They identify the tracks at the ends, and they don't look good for NO. I have to say, there are some models that NRL has put up on the graphic that I've never heard of before. Perhaps internal Navy models?

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:30 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Katrina is surely looking ragged now. Could it be a permanent trend?

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:31 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

notice how the clouds are starting to be pulled North. Possible that a turn may be taking place?

FunkyLamb

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:32 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

The eye is still showing up on Key West long range radar. Two observations.

1) To me, it still looks like its moving 270.

2) Am I crazy, or does it seem like there are two eye walls forming?

11am update will be the deciding factor for metro NO.

Cpt.Napalm

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:33 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Has the NHC mentioned why they are leaning to the west of the models on their last 2 runs where with most of their previous tracks they have leaned to the East of the model consensus?

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:35 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

Is it just me or do I see a WNW motion starting?

Yep, the much anticipated shift to the W-NW looks to have occurred during the last 2-3 hours. On VIS SAT, the eye has clouded over but there is definitely a shift in direction. We'll see if it holds. If so, from here on out, the storm should gradually start recurving to the NW and then N over the next 48 hrs.

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocal...mp;prodnav=none

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:35 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

2) Am I crazy, or does it seem like there are two eye walls forming?

No, I'm seeing it too. That means it is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle - once that finishes it can strengthen again. That would also explain the rattier appearence on satellite.

Key West radar: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/byx_N0Z_lp.shtml

twizted sizter

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:38 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Ragged isn't a term I'd use with Katrina...if anything she's getting better organized & strengthing which when in that cycle can give appearance of looking ragged.

bobbutts

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:39 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Based on the last 3 hrs of long range radar data from Key West I'm seeing motion at 290
if it's not the turn, it's quite a wobble

(Really Not an Expert)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:42 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

11 Advisory still 115 MPH moving west slower know at 6MPH. I think this system is about to start it turn real soon

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:44 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

Based on the last 3 hrs of long range radar data from Key West I'm seeing motion at 290
if it's not the turn, it's quite a wobble

Looking at the VIS loop... it's definately north of the 5am ET forecast track. Not by a whole lot, but the line is north of due west and it's long enough to be more than just a wobble - although it still might smooth out to be due west longer term. I'd call it 280-290 maybe.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:46 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

11 Advisory still 115 MPH moving west slower know at 6MPH. I think this system is about to start it turn real soon

NHC is smoothing out the motion I think. No, it CAN'T turn NOW... it must wait at least six hours! Turning now means it hits well east of the forecast track IMHO.

(Really Not an Expert)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:47 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

It has also slow down the past couple of hours this could let the trough come by and pick it up even sooner then expected what do u guys think

MadDog

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:51 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

I'm not sure it changes anything due to its forward speed. At this rate it will take awhile to make an actual change in direction.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:51 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

Has the NHC mentioned why they are leaning to the west of the models on their last 2 runs where with most of their previous tracks they have leaned to the East of the model consensus?

Expect it to change in the future. We saw a 150 mi west adjustment yesterday. With the storm 60 hrs away from landfall, there will be smaller shifts with time. The NHC likes to avoid major changes (like yesterday), so if they see a consistent trend with consensus in the models they will gradually move in that direction.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:51 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

It has also slow down the past couple of hours this could let the trough come by and pick it up even sooner then expected what do u guys think

I DON'T want to think about that possibility, although it might be the only thing that saves N.O.

andy1tom

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:53 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

it will be interesting to see if the models start shifting east in their next runs. i think it is turning a little earlier than expected

Ricreig

(User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:53 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

Guess what? Navy NRL's taken their normal track graphic off and stuck up a model track graphic!

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/ATL/12L.KATRINA/ssmi/gif/full/Latest.html

It appears that they discovered their 'error'. I saw the graphics you described and upn a refresh, it was back to the 'old' format. I can't find it again even browsing their directory structure, but it *was* interesting. All of their models depicted seemed to cluseter in and about SE La.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:55 PM

Attachment

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

As for model tracks, see the attached file.

NRL put back up their normal track graphic, but luckily I screenshotted the model track graphic while it was up. That's what I'm attaching.

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:56 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

According to the 11:00 advisory, it looks like Pensacola is out of the woods. My heart goes out to New Orleans.

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 02:57 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

I am no guy but I went and looked at the surface analysis on the Atlantic Tropical Discussion page and there are a couple of distinct highs(higher than the pressure in the hurricane) one over Texas and one over Alabama /Tennesee AND unless I am missing a few marbles(very likely), the hurricane will still follow the path of least resistance. This being said could still have the hurricane following the warmest water for fuel and into the big bend area. The trough picking up the hurricane would speed things along. This is not to be confused with a meterologist who does know what is going on.
I am really considering a trip to walmart to get a simple compass to be able to visualize the angle of motion on this storm. Either way it is fascinating. Just so long as is fizzles before hitting land. By the way here in Central Florida we are having some elevated breezes from the southeast

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 03:00 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

According to the 11:00 advisory, it looks like Pensacola is out of the woods. My heart goes out to New Orleans.

I agree regarding N.O., but I disagree about Pensacola. No one is out of the woods yet. The models drifted back east toward Biloxi/Mobile and that was not reflected in the NHC forecast - if it continues they'll update the official forecast at 4pm probably, and put Pensacola back in trouble.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 03:02 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

Quote:

According to the 11:00 advisory, it looks like Pensacola is out of the woods. My heart goes out to New Orleans.

I agree regarding N.O., but I disagree about Pensacola. No one is out of the woods yet. The models drifted back east toward Biloxi/Mobile and that was not reflected in the NHC forecast - if it continues they'll update the official forecast at 4pm probably, and put Pensacola back in trouble.

Update: Visible satellite - 14:15 image shows a tightly packed eye barely visible. Comparing that with the beginning of the loop, the next motion is definately north of due west. It's SLOWLY turning...

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 03:02 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

According to the 11:00 advisory, it looks like Pensacola is out of the woods. My heart goes out to New Orleans.

Katrina is too large and too dangerous to say at this point in time that P'cola is out of the woods.

No one along the coast from LA around Panama city should let their guard down.

Perhaps in 36 hours from now we will know more but right now, things are still too fluid.
NHC and New Orleans have to take action to evacuate do to the logistics of moving that many people out
of harms way.

Stay alert and be prepared.

(Really Not an Expert)

Sat Aug 27 2005 03:04 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

People i dont even think the big band of florida is out of the woods yet. This system been tricking us ever since it made landfall in south flordia.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 03:05 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Why did they do a Hurricane watch for such a small area? You'd think it would extend all the way to like Destin, FL or something.

richisurfs

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 03:06 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

I have to say that I sure hope Pensacola is out of the woods because they don't need yet another hit just like we don't down here. In all honesty though, as long as that thing is out in the gulf I would not let your guard down. Even though the models are in fairly close agreement nothing is written in stone and anything is still possible. I don't trust those things and I would still be keeping an eye on it if I were you. It is better to err on the side of being cautious.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 27 2005 03:08 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

Quote:

Why did they do a Hurricane watch for such a small area? You'd think it would extend all the way to like Destin, FL or something.

I suspect they did that because of evacuation difficulties with the NO area.

From the 11am discussion:
"THE NEW FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII REQUIRE A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AT THIS TIME...INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS. THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED ALONG THE COAST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT."

--RC

(User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 03:09 PM

watch area

the se part of louisiana sticks out into the gulf some. the watches were issued based on hurricane force winds possibly reaching the area in 36 hrs or so... early monday as the storm gets closer. models are fairly well clustered, with the consensus track being near to just east of new orleans.... they say in the disco that watches will probably stretch further up the coast as the hurricane gets closer.
HF 1510z27august

KornR

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 03:13 PM

Re: watch area

We live in North Florida, near to Lake City. We are still watching this storm closely. It's true that Katrina is not doing what's been predicted, and I don't know if I completely trust the models, even though all of them have it headed straight for NO. NO doesn't need anything like this. It would be decimated. I don't want it here either, but NO and Pensacola areas especially can't take a Cat4.

Ed Dunham

(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))

Sat Aug 27 2005 03:16 PM

Administrative Note - Again

Given some of the recent trends this morning, the following is a repeated post from the previous thread:

A reminder that CFHC is not a chat room and that one-line posts are discouraged. Also, do some homework before you ask a question. The answers to some of the questions being asked are readily available at the NHC site - there is even a link at the bottom left to the NHC. The Rules for the site are available in the banner at the top of the page - read them! Here is an excerpt:

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Thanks,
ED

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 03:18 PM

Re: watch area

Hurricane watches will be shifted east on the next full advisory..the reason for the watches in LA is due to evacuation time and that the center could reach this area in 36 hours (or at least effects)..remember most of this area juts way into the gulf, and thus would be impacted first no matter where a north GOM landfall takes place..as for Pensacola..no it is not out of the woods!!! don't think that..this track forecast is nearly identical to Ivan..and models are starting to shift east..remember a Mobile Bay landfall is just about the worst case for Pensacola..especially surge..don't look at the line, look at the cone..play it safe

SC Bill

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 03:19 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

I am confused, which is not unusual. The 11:00 discussion says in part "THIS PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD
CAUSE KATRINA TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HR ", and goes on to say later in the discussion: "THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS...CALLING FOR
LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA IN 48-60 HR."

Does this not seem contradictory, or at least signal a lack of confidence in the forecast track?? I mean, if the turn is going to take place sometime in the next 72 hours, how can landfall be in 48-60 hours at a point that required the turn?

NHC has been amazingly "on" this year, and this is probably just some "averaging" issue I don't understand, but I would appreciate a clue as to how these two statements can both be true.

Thanks!

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 03:25 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

I think the NHC has been as confused as we are. I would not be surprised if their track is shifted a little to the East this afternoon.

Noone should be focusing on the line. Right now, Katrina's TS force winds extend 150 miles from the Center and Hurricane force winds extend 40 miles. If the thing hits the AL/MS line Pensacola gets a LOT of rain and some very gusty winds. If it hits Mobile Bay we are screwed. Can't focus on the line because these Hurricanes are hard to predict. Remember Ivan and Dennis both hit East of the NHC's line.

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 03:25 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

No. Until this hurricane has either gone inland to Texas or has shriveled up to a thunderstorm, you should be aware of the location of this storm and be prepared for rain, and breezes. But, do not start evacuations until the local emergency management tells you to.(I am not being funny or sarcastic) The gulf has sprung surprises on a lot of people before. Ask the people in Port Charlotte Florida.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 03:28 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

Quote:

No. Until this hurricane has either gone inland to Texas or has shriveled up to a thunderstorm, you should be aware of the location of this storm and be prepared for rain, and breezes. But, do not start evacuations until the local emergency management tells you to.(I am not being funny or sarcastic) The gulf has sprung surprises on a lot of people before. Ask the people in Port Charlotte Florida.

If you feel like you're not safe, I would recommend making evacuation plans now - local EM people MAY not have time to issue evac orders. That happened with Charley and with a storm (forget the name) that hit Biloxi fairly recently, too. I still expect the forecast track to change at least three times in the next three days.

Jamiewx

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 03:36 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

Here is a link to NOAA Weather Radio KHB43 out of New Orleans.

http://www.nola.com/weather/radio/?/weather/radio/content.ssf/weather

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 03:59 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

WV really looks like it's trying to turn. It might be an artifact of the ERC, however.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

If you look at the GOM version of this... it kind of gives a feel for the overall potential motion, which now seems more east of the forecast... Am I wishcasting, or actually seeing something?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:04 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

Is some kind of shear thing happening here? In the last couple of frames it looks like there are north/south lines in the northern part of the storm. Any ideas?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:05 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

Quote:

If you look at the GOM version of this... it kind of gives a feel for the overall potential motion, which now seems more east of the forecast... Am I wishcasting, or actually seeing something?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

I've been staring at that loop til I was blue in the gills. First, it has not updated for me - I keep refreshing but the latest imaging is 14:45, which is rather old now. Second, I think you're seeing the same thing I am - a very gradual, but very distinct... turn. Potentially promising for points west of N.O. Potentially devastating for points east. Too early to tell if it is going to continue.

Updated to reply to susieq: It's dry air I think (the 15:15 image loaded for me finally).

Trekman

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:07 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

It looked to me (a stark amateur) that the highest cloud tops had left the eye and had extended west, with some seeming to go towards the north. I dont feel so foolish having only taken down one set of window boards after Dennis.

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:09 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

MissouriHurricane2008

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:10 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

Katrinas track takes it right in to the New Orleans area, that is not a good sign, with a huge lake on one side and Mississippi River on the other. Throw storm surge and 20 inches of rain on top of that we could have a disaster. Prepare Now

Darron&Amber

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:10 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

My husband has been living in SE Louisiana for 35 years, and this Hurricane got him worried.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:11 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

Quote:

It looked to me (a stark amateur) that the highest cloud tops had left the eye and had extended west, with some seeming to go towards the north. I dont feel so foolish having only taken down one set of window boards after Dennis.

Not sure what you mean aabout extended west - although I guess I see something that could be interpreted like that. Did you fill up with gas is a more important issue tha boards for FWB *right now*. This afternoon/tonight everything could change.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:12 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

URNT12 KNHC 271545
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/1514Z
B. 24 DEG 28 MIN N
85 DEG 06 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2650 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 130 DEG 87 KT
G. 040 DEG 44 NM
H. 949 MB
I. 12 C/ 3001 M
J. 16 C/ 3393 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. OPEN NW
M. C013-40
N. 1234/7
O. 1/3 NM
P. NOAA3 1312A KATRINA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 87 KTS NE QUAD 1441Z

mbfly

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:13 PM

Re: Katrina Strengthens - Destination Uncertain

I heard that the pressure is UP to 949. Does this indicate an eye replacement cycle or is the dryer air it's running into actually weakening it some ?? With it being out in the open warm water where it is, I am doubtful that is would be weakening yet. Maybe when it gets closer to land (I hope) ?

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:13 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

That dry air that is getting trapped between north of the storm, and now west of the storm, where will it go? Is it going to affect what happens next? I'd love to hear from a met on this...

(User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:15 PM

new vortex

it's been harder to track since the eye has been moving out of radar scanning distance... but the last looks and recon suggest that an eyewall replacement cycle is underway. convective symmerty has gotten shoddy since mid morning... until that smooths out and the eye becomes coherent again, looks like the hurricane will stay where it is (cat 2 by wind, cat 3 by pressure).
HF 1616z27august

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:17 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

The movement seems to be to the west judging from looking at the overall cloud pattern.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:18 PM

Re: new vortex

Quote:

it's been harder to track since the eye has been moving out of radar scanning distance... but the last looks and recon suggest that an eyewall replacement cycle is underway. convective symmerty has gotten shoddy since mid morning... until that smooths out and the eye becomes coherent again, looks like the hurricane will stay where it is (cat 2 by wind, cat 3 by pressure).
HF 1616z27august

I think you mean Cat 3 by wind, Cat 4 by pressure, don't you? 115 mph is cat 3, not 2. Otherwise, I think you're right in that it will maintain current intensity for a few hours at least.
nhc is probably reluctant to drop the winds based on the pressure, but i'm sure they've sampled the hurricane a lot and 87kt is kind of slack for a cat 3 FL wind. the pressure was last measured at 949mb, which is in cat 3 range. -HF

(Really Not an Expert)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:21 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

May be it started to feel the trough to the north of it and it starting to move know more W/NW.

wxman007

(Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:23 PM

Headed Out...

Since the threat level is decreasing here, I am departing for Meridian, MS to assist a sister station that is down one met for this event. I will be out of pocket all day, but should be able to give inland reports tomorrow and Monday.

To those in the path, stay safe and you are in our prayers...

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:28 PM

Re: Headed Out...

Quote:

Since the threat level is decreasing here, I am departing for Meridian, MS to assist a sister station that is down one met for this event. I will be out of pocket all day, but should be able to give inland reports tomorrow and Monday.

To those in the path, stay safe and you are in our prayers...

Travel safely, Jason! Hopefully Katrina won't turn and put PC back in danger!

Rick on boat in Mobile

(Weather Drama Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:30 PM

still haven't prepared

For the Mobile area...it appears things will be ok...if you look at things...any chance this will swing back east?...still appears to be going west...maybe it will continue to do so...huh?

heynow

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:34 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

I live in Abbeville, LA--about 120 miles west of New Orleans and 20 miles from the coast. Everyone around here is nervous. We had a direct hit from Lili in '02 and a semi-direct hit from Andrew in '92, so the memories are fresh. Like everyone that lives on the Gulf of Mexico, we are intently watching Katrina and hoping for the best and planning for the worst. The very worst thing would be for Katrina to directly hit New Orleans. Not only would New Orleans be destroyed, but Louisiana's economy would be immeasurably affected. And by extension, the rest of the country. New Orleans is a major port and a major pipeline of trade and commerce for the United States. You never want to wish the devastation that a hurricane wreaks on someone else, but collectively as a nation, we do not want it to hit New Orleans (although it is just a matter of time before New Orleans takes a direct hit). Katrina could be our worst nightmare.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:34 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

Quote:

For the Mobile area...it appears things will be ok...if you look at things...any chance this will swing back east?...still appears to be going west...maybe it will continue to do so...huh?

Don't bet on anything.

Jim Catore just announced that a voluntary evac order has been given for Biloxi. No one knows where it will go yet.

damejune2

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:37 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

Rick - Anyone in the cone of error i would say is not ok.....you should be preparing now, while there is time. Shutters should be up, bags packed, car gassed up, etc... Better to be safe than sorry. I don't know why people get mad when they get evac'd and it turns out they didn't have to. Wouldn't you want to be safe than sorry? People need to get off the computer and start listening to their local outlets for instructions, evacs, routes to take, etc.....You are not going to find local info on here about that stuff.

I would hate to see people in the cone be in grave danger because they sat on their computer hoping and wishing for a shift right or left. If i lived in NO or any where close......i'd be in Texas or the Carolinas by now.

Sorry if i am preaching, but you don't want to mess with a Cat 4 or Cat 5. I wouldn't even ride one out in a shelter....but i am a wuss..LOL....i would rather stay in a motel for a day or two - at a safe distance. There are a lot of folks on here that live in that cone....please be safe and god bless.

Genesis

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:49 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

My boards went up yesterday morning.

It only takes me an hour and a half to do - if I do it in nice weather in the cool of the morning.

If I have to do it in 40mph squalls, then it takes a LOT longer and is a totally MISERABLE experience.

Do it now folks, while its nice out and easy. If you spend the hour or two and its for nothing, you've lost an hour. If you can't get it done for some reason, it could be your LIFE.

Do not screw around with this storm. While the models are all converged now, and have been for the last 24 hours or so, the fact remains that it can and WILL shift, and confidence is high only for a direct impact anywhere in the cone. Especially to the EAST of the impact point there will be serious problems in the areas of surge and wind. Inland the rain impact could be severe as well.

I do not consider Pensacola "out of the woods" by any means; I'm 40nm east of there, and I'm boarded up. If it appears necessary we WILL leave. I am not fooling around with this storm - and this is coming from someone who stayed for both Ivan and Dennis, right here, and didn't find either "intolerable."

Hawkeyewx

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:53 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

Katrina has definitely looked ragged this morning, but the latest visible loop is darn cool. You can easily see the concentric eyewalls, probably moreso than any sat loop I've seen before. This is not wishcasting, but wouldn't it be darn cool if the inner eyewall collapsed and we ended up with a storm looking like Isabelle did with an incredibly huge and distinct eye(again, only over the open water while it is harmless)? With this particular loop you can get 30 frames with each frame separated by only 5 to 10 minutes.... again, very cool. This NASA site rocks for hurricanes threatening the US.

In addition to the eyewall replacement attempt it is also very obvious the outflow is getting better each hour. It is good to the north, but in recent hours the outflow is really beginning to shoot outward toward the southwest.

I read the posts of several people who thought Katrina had turned wnw, but that appears to have only been a wobble for now as a due west movement of the eye has resumed. The eye will be leaving the Key West radar range in the next couple hours so it is satellite only until it approaches landfall.

Visible Loop

Sheeper

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 04:59 PM

Re: Headed Out...

Jason,

Stay Dry, Stay Safe.

In our neck of FL (Indian River County on the beach), we had a quick squall this morning. 20mph wind and heavy rain for about 12 minutes. Now calm and sun.

Some of my Red Cross folks wanted to head down to Miami-Dade but i'm hoping to hold 'em here. If need be we'll release them for assignments out to MS or LA depending on what happens......

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:00 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

Quote:

I do not consider Pensacola "out of the woods" by any means; I'm 40nm east of there, and I'm boarded up. If it appears necessary we WILL leave. I am not fooling around with this storm - and this is coming from someone who stayed for both Ivan and Dennis, right here, and didn't find either "intolerable."

I won't consider myself out of the woods until Katrina is downgraded to a depression after making landfall whereever it makes landfall.

Looking at the water vapor now... it appears that the storm MAY be getting pinched in the NW section. Signs of a shift north?

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:09 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

supposed to go to west coast today or tomorrow. live 2 hours from ms gulf coast. should I worry about family that far in, center to east of state?

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:10 PM

Eyewall replacement cycle?

Based on radar a few hours ago, the eyewall replacement cycle was going on replacing a tiny, 9 NM eye with a larger one about double the radius.

However, looking at IR, WV, and Visible it appears this new eye has formed, and a 2nd, giant-eye eyewall replacement cycle has begun more then doubling the recently formed eye. Can anyone confim this? The visible is picking up a new circular pattern outside the central eye, convection (IR) and WV show a nearly completely inactive zone between the new eye and the even newer forming eyewall.

I wish this thing was inside radar range so we could see for sure.

Source: SSD Floater 1

Again, can anyone confirm what I'm seeing?

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:13 PM

Re: Eyewall replacement cycle?

Quote:

Based on radar a few hours ago, the eyewall replacement cycle was going on replacing a tiny, 9 NM eye with a larger one about double the radius.
However, looking at IR, WV, and Visible it appears this new eye has formed, and a 2nd, giant-eye eyewall replacement cycle has begun more then doubling the recently formed eye. Can anyone confim this? The visible is picking up a new circular pattern outside the central eye, convection (IR) and WV show a nearly completely inactive zone between the new eye and the even newer forming eyewall.
I wish this thing was inside radar range so we could see for sure.
Source: SSD Floater 1
Again, can anyone confirm what I'm seeing?

I see the same thing. The WV makes the eye look VERY large. I can see a bit of a WNW trend on the WV but not on visible of IR. If the new eye compresses to the north instead of the south that could signal a change in motion (couldn't it?). Still looks on WV like someone punched Katrina's upper left corner in.

dkpcb

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:18 PM

Re: Headed Out...

If Jason is leaving Panama City Beach,
we must be out of danger here, good news
for us.
But we still keep on eye on this storm, if this storm
turns to the east, channel 7 will be without there
main man (Chief Meteorologist) and we have to watch channel 13.
We are very supprised about Jason leaving.
Hopefully Katrina won't turn our way.

Travel safely, Jason!

Who ever will end up in Katrina's path you are in our prayers !

DK

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:21 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

URNT12 KNHC 271725
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/1651Z
B. 24 DEG 22 MIN N
85 DEG 15 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2653 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 220 DEG 96 KT
G. 125 DEG 29 NM
H. 949 MB
END

URNT12 KNHC 271725
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/1651Z
B. 24 DEG 22 MIN N
85 DEG 15 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2653 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 220 DEG 96 KT
G. 125 DEG 29 NM
H. 949 MB
NOAA3 1312A KATRINA OB 11

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:27 PM

Re: Headed Out...

I'm not comfortable about this. Ivan moved eastward before landfall. Just afraid something like that could happen, which is why this area is in that cone. I do know some nasty weather is on the way as it pushes North. Those are some nasty outer rain bands. Just ask the people in the keys!

MikeC

(Admin)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:34 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana *DELETED*

Post deleted by MikeC

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:36 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200512_model.gif

Look how close together these models are. Go by those N.O. may be spared. Looks more like a Mobile/Boloxi hit if you go by that. People should not let their guard down anywhere up here.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:38 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

models are moving east again...

just have a bad feeling about southern Miss... MS/AL would be my landfall right now.....

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:39 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

I still hold to what i said last night and early today in that this is will ALA and be a cat 3 maybe a low cat 3 even when landfall.This is setting up this way for 2 reasons IMO #1 the models have tranded back towards Mobile and #2 there looks to be alot of shear in the forcast before landfall,and since this torm is going to be slow moving i see a opal type storm in the making.

Now will this happen? no idea it is what i am feeling now looking at the models and the projected shear.

But the NHC says poss a 4 at landfall so by all means listen to them.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:40 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

URNT12 KNHC 271734
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/17:15:50Z
B. 24 deg 25 min N
085 deg 15 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 60 kt
E. 310 deg 019 nm
F. 040 deg 083 kt
G. 314 deg 038 nm
H. 950 mb
I. 9 C/ 3657 m
J. 18 C/ 2436 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C50
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 WX12A KATRINA01 OB 05
MAX FL WIND 83 KT NW QUAD 17:05:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 21 C, 309 / 16NM
OUTER EYE ON RADAR 50 NM DIA OPEN SE.
INNER EYE 40% COVERAGE SSW - SE

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:40 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

Quote:

models are moving east again

Do you mean MORE east than the 8am models went? It looks now on the VIS and WV loop that Katrina is definately pinched in the last image - elongated north/south, which if I'm not mistaken is a sign that a northward motion could be imminent.

Update: Latest pressure is up to 950, another MB from the last reader and 10 MB from the lowest level this morning. That's a bit much for an ERC, isn't it?

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:41 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

Good morning (yes I'm a sleepyhead).

Looks like the southerly movement has stopped and that she's in an ERC, and because of that she hasn't gained any overall intensity since 4am, looking at recon. So my guess is that we will be seeing pretty much the status quo for today with strengthening later tonight or tomorrow, at earliest very late afternoon.

There must be a reason the winds didn't catch up before the ERC this morning. It would appear she tried to intensify but something kept the process from completing successfully, and whatever that is, is still holding her back.

Remember how Emily "tripped" and fell apart just a half day before hitting Cozumel? That was definitely something different going on in that particular case, but in general there seem to be many processes that haven't been identified yet that affect intensification, as we learn more about these complex storms.

bn765

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:43 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

So what time does everyone think Katrina will start to strenghten again?

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:44 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

OK..this is why I tell everyone to not look at the line and look at the cone..I just went out here in Gulf Breeze for gas and everyone has let down there guard because they all say its New Orleans..no boarding up or anything..I come back and ALL the models are now east of New Orleans.. EVERYONE from Central LA all the way to Appalachiacola needs to stay alert....NOBODY is out of the woods yet!!!!

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:46 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

The 1:00 intermediate advisory is out, and it shows the same landfall as before - around NO. THAT track has not shifted east.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_5day.html

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:46 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

Quote:

So what time does everyone think Katrina will start to strenghten again?

Got a 12-sided die? Roll it and you'll get as good as guess as anyone could give you I think.

Seriously, I expect it will begin to intensify overnight if not before.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:47 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

"H. 950 mb
I. 9 C/ 3657 m
J. 18 C/ 2436 m"

Wow 9 deg differential...so is it correct to conclude the pressure will be back below 950mb before too long.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:48 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

NHC tracks are not updated on every advisory..only every full advisory, which will be at 4 pm central

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:48 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

Quote:

The 1:00 intermediate advisory is out, and it shows the same landfall as before - around NO. THAT track has not shifted east.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_5day.html

The TRACK is NOT updated for an intermediate advisory - only the intensity and current position and watches/warnings. The Intermediate Advisory is just that, a public advisory only, not a complete package (which has a forecast and discussion added to it). The track will be updated at 4pm - it may not change but it probably will slightly at least.

ETA:
Every water vapor image I look at makes me think that a turn to the north - not WNW or NW but north - will happen sooner rather than later. Katrina appears to my untrained eye to be becoming elongated north/south rather significantly - and appears to not be expanding at all to the west in terms of the overall cloud pattern over the last two hours. Maybe it is just my eyes.

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:50 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

Im not going to make any predicitions on this cause really right now I cant say where it will go. My speculation forecast isnt out of the woods but looking dim as she never slowed down, also the strong ridge to the N hasnt weakend as much as the NHC forecasted. Anyways that was a speculation forecast.
If I was though between the current Hurricane watch area,,,I would really get started now on the current path shes in cause she hasnt slowed to make the N turn. All the models, NHC and Mets expect a bend towards that area. They might want to extend the current watches up to the Florida line cause Hurricane force winds could exceed 80miles near landfall if its near Biloxi.
scottsvb

(User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:50 PM

what's going on w/ katrina

the latest vortex says the inner eyewall is decaying. that's what it looks like on visible as well.. you can see the gap. diameter of the outer eyewall is 50nm. the inner one is going now, so the outer one should start contracting in. should get a good run of intensification going later this afternoon.
people are talking about the models wavering.. they're actually still pretty well painted on southeastern louisiana, as a previous poster said. almost all of them are btw pascagoula and houma. center of that spread is the delta up to west of biloxi. the official is shaded left from that, almost directly over new orleans.
HF 1751z27august

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:56 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

The NHC usually only makes a big change in their track at 11AM or 5PM from what I've noticed.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:56 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

Just saw the Gov of LA on TWC and CNN and FNC and looks like they are starting evacuations this afternoon with a number of parishes and it looks like they will start the Contra-Flow out of the state this afternoon using I-10 and I-59. Also , the mayor of New Orleans will start evacuations tomorrow and that the Superdome may be used as an evacuation center as well according to WDSU-TV.

Steve H1

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:02 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

Still lots of questions concerning where this will end up, but the models seem to have a good consensus. Having said that, I'm not so sure that's a lock, she's still at a low latitude. I haven't seen much trend east with the models, but we'll have to wait for tonight's runs. I can see the trough in the plains moving SE on WV under a big low in the Upper midwest, but how far will it reach? I'm also interested in 90L, which should be classified as a depression now, as convection is wrapping nicely. Will this be a labor day event? First things first....Katrina. Cheers!!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:07 PM

Re: what's going on w/ katrina

Steve Gregory's blog on wunderground tropical weather is an easy read and very informative.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html

I've cut and pasted from the latest. Not sure if this is in line with the forum guidelines (in spite of repeated posts by the mods) so if the mods want to edit that out and just leave the web addy, that is okey dokey by me.

"The latest Vortex RECON Report show Katrina has continued to intensify over night, but has just begun a temporary weakening cycle due to an eye wall replacement that began 3 hours ago with a pressure rise of 9mb to 949mb from early this AM. The CLOSED eye wall that was only 9NM across -- has just 'opened up' again to the NW, but has concentric eyewalls of 13NM and 40NM across. " ...

"That said -- the very same southwesterly winds that will initially aid in increasing the outflow channel ahead of the storm in the NNW quadrant, will also end up increasing the shears along the north Gulf coast just before Katrina reaches land. This will then, in spite of the extremely warm coastal waters of near 90deg -- lead to some weakening of the storm just prior to landfall. In some ways, a very similar situation to Dennis and last year, IVAN. One real 'memorable' difference between Hurricane Camille and IVAN, as probably Katrina, is that the storm headed for the coast around the western edge of a ridge line and came ashore prior to the arrival of an upper air TROF that would of produced some shears near the Gulf coast. Hence, Camille came in at full force. In this case, the ridge is first eroding away precisely because of the development of a major upper level TROF, and the shears will be increasing near the Gulf coast before Katrina makes landfall - as I've been expecting now for the past 2 days."

Exerpts are ok, but full reposts aren't, I respect other sites too. Weather Underground is ad/subscriber supported so out of respect I'll remove most of the article. Links are ok, the link for this is also at the bottom of the main page too. -- Mike C.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:08 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

there is a lot of drier air to her wnw-nw..... and at this time yesterday was a lot less....not sure how this will play an role in her movement or strength.... here's a water vapor shot of Katrina from esl.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:09 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

Quote:

looks like they will start the Contra-Flow out of the state this afternoon using I-10 and I-59.

That Contra-Flow was well named. I can't figure how that slipped in as a valid evac plan. That is the one that shuttles people from NO over into MS and prevents MS coastline from evacuating.

On the phone to my brother last night I was talking about what a huge mess it would be if they ever had to evacuate Jackson Cty MS. The entire cty is low-lying and any serious hurricane threat would mean evacuation of pretty much everyone in the cty.

According to an article from WLOX online I read yesterday:

"Following Hurricane Dennis in July, which caused scattered damage and flooding problems from Jackson County northward along the state's east side, Latham said he had serious concerns about the numbers who chose not to heed evacuations. He said based on a survey conducted after Dennis, it appeared 'the general public is very tired and weary of evacuations. We are worried many people will not evacuate.'"

My brother told me that when Georges (a Cat 2 that made landfall at Ocean Springs) hit, that in the eastern part of the cty, near the AL line, there were people who didn't evacuate and who drowned in their homes. He said there was over 10 feet of water in some places there, and he had participated in rescue efforts there, where he was using a boat and the street signs, which he said are 8' high, were under water.

Anyway he said that the county sent everyone a map recently in the mail showing the evacuation routes and the funny thing was that they highlighted every road out of the county. There are only about four or five roads out of the county (not counting I-10 which simply runs along the coast), and they are all tiny back roads that are prone to flooding in places. In the event of a coastal evac, some of them would be congested just north of the county with people leaving from AL or from Biloxi area, preventing residents from getting very far. Of course you can't specify additional roads if they don't exist.

There are so many problems with resources and $$$ even beyond the evacuation logistics, for this area of the N GOM. I really hope the models don't start to turn east because by then all the NO folks will be in hotels in central MS, which will be full, and many of the gas stations will be out of gas, and where will those people on the MS coast go. At least in MOB they can head towards Montgomery or ATL on I-65 or east on I-10.

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:09 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

Quote:

The 1:00 intermediate advisory is out, and it shows the same landfall as before - around NO. THAT track has not shifted east.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200512_5day.html

They dont shift tracks at the inter update no matter what they wait till 5 pm so the track is the same because they dont change it only during the full updates at 5pm and 11.

Look for a slight shift east at 5pm

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:11 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

This has probably been posted several times in the past 24 hours, but in case it hasn't this is a fascinating article that I found online several years ago and bookmarked (little did I know that our current setup would so closely resemble the article).

http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/wetlands/hurricane_print.html

For those interested, here is a second excellent article: http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0BJK/is_15_11/ai_68642805

I am appalled at La emergency management and the reports of what a few of the N.O. mets are saying. Of course you can't incite the public into a panic, but folks need to face the grave reality of this situation. I'm getting the impression that John Q. Public in New Orleans (who isn't an avid weather watcher like those of us here) may not realize exactly the potential of what he is facing. It takes 72 hours to evacuate the city of New Orleans... we are approximately 48 hours from a time when it would become very very dangerous to attempt to evacuate. If Katrina does follow the current NHC path and strike N.O., I think the government officials in La would have blood in their hands and should face impeachment. I understand not wanted to incite a panic, but as the saying goes, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.

I feel like I'm sitting at an intersection watching a car crash about to occur.

Kevin

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:13 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

Quote:

Still lots of questions concerning where this will end up, but the models seem to have a good consensus. Having said that, I'm not so sure that's a lock, she's still at a low latitude. I haven't seen much trend east with the models, but we'll have to wait for tonight's runs. I can see the trough in the plains moving SE on WV under a big low in the Upper midwest, but how far will it reach? I'm also interested in 90L, which should be classified as a depression now, as convection is wrapping nicely. Will this be a labor day event? First things first....Katrina. Cheers!!

What's up?

As for Katrina...the more wnw motion hasn't come into play yet. If we don't see a more northerly component by tomorrow afternoon, then I could imagine a landfall WEST of NO. That would be a very, very bad scenario for that city. I also think that Katrina may be going through an ERC at this point. The core of the storm looks a little disorganized right now. With that being said, Katrina could bomb out later tonight.

90L looks very good this afternoon. It's not of much importance attm given the massive threat that Katrina is posing. That may change over time though. The models are somewhat spread out with their future tracks of this disturbance. We have plenty of time to watch it .

(User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:20 PM

scenario

worst possible scenario for NO is just east of the city. northerly winds left of the eye would bank the surge against the ponchatrain levee, and push it over. just west would be more wind damage, but the lake would probably stay on its side of the levee.
HF 1820z27august

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:23 PM

Re: scenario

I have not heard how strong the trough coming thru the midwest will be. I know this will be the deciding factor. I remember Opal made it all the way to 92.3 west before itm turned north and then northeast, making landfall at 88.6

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:25 PM

Re: scenario

Link of Intrest:

http://www.mvn.usace.army.mil/eng/edhd/watercon.htm

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:29 PM

Re: scenario

Would anyone be kind enough to give me a good link of a sat loop of the storm? i have been watching the radar loops but now its out of long range for the key west.

Thanks.

twizted sizter

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:34 PM

images

Ralph...in the column on the left of this page is a link to the NHC...several different images to choose from.

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:37 PM

Re: images

Models are swinging back west again.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:38 PM

Re: images

OK... somebodies best guess...a slow moving Katrina at cat 3 or low cat 4 hitting MS/AL border..storm surge totals off to the east? I know Ivan had surge 150 east of landfall near 8 feet....and Georges completely flooded Mobile when it came in as a strong 2 weak 3.....

dkpcb

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:48 PM

Re: scenario

That’s what we are watching out for pcola.
I remember Opal very well, no warning,
I remember having to leave town, and the traffic
being so bad, we could not get out of town in time.
got about 20 miles out of town by 3:00 pm that afternoon,
and the traffic just stops for 2 hours, the wind started picking
up and we had to turn around and go back. Went to a friends
house in town. We hade to wait for about 4 days before we could
go back home to the Beach to see our home, we could only find
half of the house.
Let's hope this is not going to happen this time.

DK

KimmieL

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:48 PM

Re: scenario

I really appreciate all the great posts! Looking like the ERC could be completed in the next few hours. Motion continues to be west! Lines for gas, ice, and propane are expanding as we speak. We have made the decision to stay basing it on the facts that it will be a weak Cat 4 at landfall (if there is such a thing!)

Kimmie
Betsy '65
Andrew '92
.

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:49 PM

Re: still haven't prepared

Louisiana is now in full preparedness/evacuation mode. The emergency managers were on television not long ago stressing the need to prepare and evacuate in an orderly manner. Given less than a day's lead time since the track shifted and still 2 days to landfall, there's not much else you can do. It is simply too expensive to begin planning evacuations for the city when the projected path takes the storm into Panama City, FL with no real signs of a substantial shift west until within the 3 day window. Simply put, this storm is reminding us that we still don't know a lot about these systems and must rush to make preparations when things do change. Watches were placed in accordance with policy; shortly thereafter, evacuations and the like went into effect. It's about the best you can do right now, unfortunately.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:52 PM

Re: scenario

Quote:

I have not heard how strong the trough coming thru the midwest will be. I know this will be the deciding factor. I remember Opal made it all the way to 92.3 west before itm turned north and then northeast, making landfall at 88.6

The trough in the midwest is too far north to affect Katrina and sliding off to the east. There is another one further south and west moving SE from west Texas. You'll notice that the clouds over coastal Texas are now moving NE. Upstream of the Texas trough there is some bowing off the coast of Oregon, usually a sign of building high pressure which could eventually sharpen up the amplitude of the trough in W Tex (causing it to dig deeper into the N Gulf). As usual, its a timing situation with the trough and storm but there should be some turning of Katrina toward the NW within the next 12 hours.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10

Steve

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:55 PM

Re: images

Good call Kevin and a reason why people shouldn't use long-range radar to plot motion of a storm. There was a brouhaha over this on another website yesterday where the guy (vested NW FL interest) kept talking about the "turn had begun" I kept reminding them all not to watch long range or the IR at night, but if they were going to do that, consider the vortex fixes because those are the only true measurements not taken from certain angles or with certain optical biases. So what do we have now? We've got a storm at 24.22 which is nearly as low as it has been all day (had bee up to 24.55 for a while earlier) and a continued trend around 270+/-. The NHC's New Orleans East to Waveland track crosses 25N at 87W. They're probably going to hit it fairly close. We'll have to see what comes out in another hour or so as for track updates and such. Model guidance @ 12z (GFS/GFDL) swung from their MS 06z runs back into Louisiana. The low level models run off of that should reflect similar solutions as they are updated. There's a shot the 18z's move further east while the 00z's may swing back west.

But if you're on the Gulf Coast, don't be complacent. Deal with the potential risk for what it is. Just because you're in Mobile, Pensacola, Seaside, Houma, New Iberia or whatever, understand your threat and your tolerance for inconvenience and decide accordingly. I'm next to positive that I'm going to try to ride things out here with my dog who has taken slightly ill. My kids and wife will be out. I have places to go if necessary and a bike to ride to get there should auto curfews go into effect at some point.

As for Louisiana, they're doing the right thing. They didn't want to panic everyone considering we don't have the time required to implement the contra-flow plans via the phased in systems they use because we're too close to landfall. Several of the low lying areas called for mandatories early today and many of the parishes have also called for voluntaries. The contra-flow isn't just on the I-10 east through MS, it also utilizes the I-55, I-10 west to Houston and the I-59. All tolls are canceled and they're allowing as many people as possible to still go about their planning and business before they kick into high gear.

Steve

(Really Not an Expert)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:58 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

If Katrina continue to move at 7 MPH I think this trough is going to have time to take her to the east more then expected. How fast does a trough moves?

belfast-jj

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:01 PM

Re: images

Hi i'm new round here - just wonder if anyone had links to live internet News Stations ?

jj.....

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:02 PM

Re: scenario

Quote:

I Lines for gas, ice, and propane are expanding as we speak. We have made the decision to stay

Since evac plans have been on my mind, I'm curious why you would consider evacuation since you live in Baton Rouge. Wouldn't Baton Rouge be one of the places that people from NO would be evacuating to, since it is so many miles from the coast (I am guessing around 50mi?).

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:03 PM

Re: images

Has anyone noticed on TWC that Jim Cantore's last two reports at 2 & 3 pm have been on tape? I wonder if he's heading towards NoLa or what?

twizted sizter

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:10 PM

Re: scenario

Coastal cities aren't the only places that will feel the effects from this...I'm 75-80 miles from either coast in Fl...we had evacs here last yr for mobile homes & low lying areas...we lost 15% of structures here & many more sustained some type of damage...10 miles west of me was severe damage from Charley...along the lines of 75% damage...either total loss or varying degree of structural damage...inland areas also have greater chance of tornado damage as well.

KimmieL

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:11 PM

Re: scenario

We made the decision to stay based on our past experience and what our local gov. is telling us. Know several people in BR who are leaving town. For Andrew we had hurricane force winds and had no power for over a week. Same thing for Betsy when she came through. We may be inland, but we do still experience the wind and we are under an inland hurricane watch at this time.

Kimmie

Old Sailor

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:34 PM

Re: scenario

NHC Track Vs. Recon Data..

Dave

NHC Track Vs. Recon

zacros

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:38 PM

Lingering Storms off Carolina Coast

Anyone else see a slight rotation in the storms lingering off the coast of South Carolina?

Savannah Radar

(Really Not an Expert)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:39 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

It looks like Katrina is making a slightly north turn know very slowley it might be a begin of a major track shift.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:42 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

Quote:

It looks like Katrina is making a slightly north turn know very slowley it might be a begin of a major track shift.

Every single time I have seen it look like it was making a slight turn north in the last several hours, it has then smoothed out back to the west. It's still 6-12 hours away from the turn in the forecast, I think.

Having said that, the water vapor continues to make me think that the turn is going to begin sooner than that if it has not already begun.

ETA:
Forget the wobbles for a few minutes. Just LOOK at the latest VIS imagery. Katrina IS becoming MUCH LARGER based upon my untrained eyeballs. It's clear that even if the motion does not have a northward component (yet), the CDO is EXPANDING northward in a fairly dramatic fashion. The trend of non-weakening that I said I figured would last for several more hours may be over already.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:46 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

huh? water vapor shows nothing to turn this hurricane for another 12 hours min. my guess, 4pm cst advisory stays the course or further west land and then quick east turn. just my two cents, but vapor sure shows staying the course.

(Really Not an Expert)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:47 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

One's this baby turns north i dont think it going to head back west more of a N/E track.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:50 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

Quote:

huh? water vapor shows nothing to turn this hurricane for another 12 hours min. my guess, 4pm cst advisory stays the course or further west land and then quick east turn. just my two cents, but vapor sure shows staying the course.

You're not looking at the same WV I am, then. I don't see anything to make the storm turn north necessarily - I see the storm expanding northward more than it's moving westward.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:50 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

Recon just reported a reading of 119 knot winds ... that's 137 mph...

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:55 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

Quote:

Recon just reported a reading of 119 knot winds ... that's 137 mph...

I don't see the recon report at NHC - what was the pressure?

MikeC

(Admin)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:56 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

I added a few radio/tv links on the main page article for those looking for them.

(Really Not an Expert)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:57 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

That trough north of Katrina is going to turn the hurricane more to the N/NE but my question is when is this going to happend. It might happend sooner than expected that trough extend's real far south just passing texas right know so it all depends on the forward speed of the hurricane on how fast it moves. If the trough beats it then we have a different ball game that would cause a more treat to Florida than Louisiana.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:58 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

can't say that I disagree hugh. I would say my very untrained eye is seeing the stronger storm tightening again and since it grew during eye wall repl it look more northward. but I'm an idiot when it comes to real weather so bear with me

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:00 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

Quote:

That trough north of Katrina is going to turn the hurricane more to the N/NE but my question is when is this going to happend. It might happend sooner than expected that trough extend's real far south just passing texas right know so it all depends on the forward speed of the hurricane on how fast it moves. If the trough beats it then we have a different ball game that would cause a more treat to Florida than Louisiana.

I've always been of the understanding - based upon what I've heard from meterologists on TV - that you could tell which way a storm was going to turn (sometimes) by the elongation of the cloud pattern. If there is any truth to this and if it applies to Katrina (nothing much ELSE has seemed to apply) - Pensacola is in trouble.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:00 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

great sats and visibles

http://www.geocities.com/tropicwx/

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:02 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

Quote:

can't say that I disagree hugh. I would say my very untrained eye is seeing the stronger storm tightening again and since it grew during eye wall repl it look more northward. but I'm an idiot when it comes to real weather so bear with me

Me too - but as I said I know what I have heard on TV from "weather guessers" if you will - and putting two and three together I get six and a potential turn SOON.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:05 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

Yeah, check out the explosion of convection on this IR SAT. The CDO has really expanded to the north and east over the last several hours. This looks like one massive storm - may be our 21st century Camille.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10

pryord1

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:09 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

I would like to know the same thing. Have you received a response for this posting? If so, would you please share it with me? Thanks!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:11 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

Well on wv sat images it looks like Katrina is reorganizing quite rapidly.

Looking at conditions on buoy 42003 as the hurricane moves past, south of it. This buoy is located NW of the storm, at 1.5N and 0.5W relative to the storm's current position (could someone work out how many miles away that is). Wave heights have averaged over 20 ft since early this morning and are currently approaching the 25 ft mark as windspeed has been increasing (up to around 40kts steady now). The waves will probably be even higher shortly, as the storm is directly S and the wind shifts to due E.

It looks like the only other buoy before landfall will be 42001, tomorrow, because 42041 is not in service anymore.

Edit - Oh WLOX has an excellent online hurricane center for resources for MS, and also tracking map that shows buoy locs and the shortcuts to the NOAA page for each.

http://www.wlox.com/

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:19 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

Quote:

I would like to know the same thing. Have you received a response for this posting? If so, would you please share it with me? Thanks!

No one has mentioned the pressure on that recon yet, and it is still not posted anywhere on NHC that I can find.

Reaper

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:21 PM

Attachment

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

The eye is getting that cool "stadium Look" to it now....

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:22 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

Quote:

Yeah, check out the explosion of convection on this IR SAT. The CDO has really expanded to the north and east over the last several hours. This looks like one massive storm - may be our 21st century Camille.

and it still has all day tomorrow at the very least to intensify even further. I suspect even if it makes landfall at N.O., we may get hurricane force winds in the Panhandle as huge as it is becoming. Not 140+, but 75 is possible in gusts maybe.

Edit to reply to Reaper:
I do not find anything "cool" about the stadium effect in a hurricane, personally!

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:23 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

Quote:

Quote:

Recon just reported a reading of 119 knot winds ... that's 137 mph...

I don't see the recon report at NHC - what was the pressure?

All i see was this....must of missed something

URNT12 KNHC 271909
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/18:56:30Z
B. 24 deg 28 min N
085 deg 21 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 55 kt
E. 47 deg 016 nm
F. 146 deg 098 kt
G. 049 deg 030 nm
H. EXTRAP 950 mb
I. 13 C/ 2438 m
J. 20 C/ 2438 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. WEAK NW
M. C45
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 WX12A KATRINA01 OB 09
MAX FL WIND 98 KT NE QUAD 18:47:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 8000 FT
INNER EYE REMNANT 25% COVERAGE SW - S 5 NM FROM FIX POINT

i think this means ERC is about over

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:26 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Recon just reported a reading of 119 knot winds ... that's 137 mph...

I don't see the recon report at NHC - what was the pressure?

All i see was this....must of missed something

URNT12 KNHC 271909
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/18:56:30Z
B. 24 deg 28 min N
085 deg 21 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 55 kt
E. 47 deg 016 nm
F. 146 deg 098 kt
G. 049 deg 030 nm
H. EXTRAP 950 mb
I. 13 C/ 2438 m
J. 20 C/ 2438 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. WEAK NW
M. C45
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 WX12A KATRINA01 OB 09
MAX FL WIND 98 KT NE QUAD 18:47:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 8000 FT
INNER EYE REMNANT 25% COVERAGE SW - S 5 NM FROM FIX POINT

i think this means ERC is about over

That does not mention anything about a 119 knot wind, though... which is the report I was asking about.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:26 PM

Re: Hurricane Watches up For Southeast Louisiana

Quote:

H. EXTRAP 950 mb

Guess they didn't sample over the eye... wonder why it's extrapolated... Maybe it's extrapolated from flight level, but generally it doesn't say this.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:28 PM

Am I seeing this right on Key West Long Range Radar??

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.kbyx.shtml

Tell me that's just the short term part of the loop and nothing else. I hope that's just a wobble.....

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:30 PM

Re: Am I seeing this right on Key West Long Range Radar??

Quote:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p38cr/si.kbyx.shtml

Tell me that's just the short term part of the loop and nothing else. I hope that's just a wobble.....

That's just the short term part of the loop and nothing else.

Oh, you want the truth? Ok, it's just an artifact of Katrina being too far from the radar for a reliable track to be obtained.

CaneTrackerInSoFl

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:31 PM

Re: Am I seeing this right on Key West Long Range Radar??

Thats just the remainder of the old eyewall being, I guess, filtered out. Doesn't look like it has any implications on the overall direction of the storm, though.

tpratch

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:32 PM

Re: Am I seeing this right on Key West Long Range Radar??

It's been mentioned that due to the distance from the tower, that radar data is at an angle that makes motion unreliable.

Take anything you ascertain from it with a large helping of NaCl

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:34 PM

119Kt

Hugh, I am unsure of the exact website where you can find that at, but the reading is in another website's forum.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=71478&start=400

Hit control f and then type in 119. It will take you to the correct post.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:35 PM

Re: Am I seeing this right on Key West Long Range Radar??

Watching the streaming coverage of WWL-TV and they are saying that the contra-flow of the interstates at 5pm ET and watching the traffic cams from NoLa, it looks like that the folks there are getting out now. Major traffic delays it looks like......

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:36 PM

Re: 119Kt

URNT12 KNHC 272030
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/2009Z
B. 24 DEG 33 MIN N
85 DEG 23 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2634 M
D. N/A
E. N/A
F. 035 DEG 85 KT
G. 300 DEG 29 NM
H. 945 MB
I. 11 C/ 3062 M
J. 19 C/ 3066 M
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN W
M. C08-50
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 1312A KATRINA OB 23
MAX FL WIND 108 KTS NE QUAD 2015Z

ohhh......here we go! How big will she get?

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:37 PM

Re: 119Kt

Hmm I'm seeing a NW motion. Is that right? Mann

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:38 PM

Re: 119Kt

Quote:

Hugh, I am unsure of the exact website where you can find that at, but the reading is in another website's forum.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=71478&start=400

Hit control f and then type in 119. It will take you to the correct post.

Registration required

ETA: Advisory is out. Hurricane Watch extended to the AL/FL border. Pressure down to 945 but winds remain 115. Have not read the Fcst/Discussion yet if it is even out.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:38 PM

Re: 119Kt

HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2005
...KATRINA RE-ORGANIZING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 4 PM CDT...2100Z...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS EXTENDED WESTWARD TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA AND EASTWARD TO THE FLORIDA-ALABAMA
BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER.

new watches!!

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:38 PM

Re: 119Kt

Pressure has been as low as 940... it's just rebuilding after the ERC... I wouldn't be surprised if the winds were in the ballpark of where they've been all day. In fact, just out... sustained winds are 100kts still...

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:39 PM

Re: 119Kt

Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...24.6 N... 85.6 W. Movement
toward...west near 7 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...115 mph. Minimum central pressure... 945 mb.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:40 PM

Re: Am I seeing this right on Key West Long Range Radar??

Quote:

It's been mentioned that due to the distance from the tower, that radar data is at an angle that makes motion unreliable.

Take anything you ascertain from it with a large helping of NaCl

Thank you....

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:41 PM

Re: 119Kt

Not much movement, but at least finally the WNW (0.1N, 0.2W) that I've been seeing (or imagining on the WV) last couple hours. The vis hasn't been as obvious, but every bit north helps.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:42 PM

Re: 119Kt

Quote:

Quote:

Hugh, I am unsure of the exact website where you can find that at, but the reading is in another website's forum.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=71478&start=400

Hit control f and then type in 119. It will take you to the correct post.

Registration required

ETA: Advisory is out. Hurricane Watch extended to the AL/FL border. Pressure down to 945 but winds remain 115. Have not read the Fcst/Discussion yet if it is even out.

I'm registered there and let me tell you that the recon data is invaluable. I just hope we can keep a plane in there almost non-stop for the next 36 hours. This storm will or could be as devestating as the 'C' word when all is said and done....

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:44 PM

Re: 119Kt

Here you go Hugh: "WITH THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 945 MB. THE AIRCRAFT HAVE FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 119 KT AT 8000 FT IN THE OUTER EYEWALL"

From the 5:00 Discussion. Those were flight level winds. I must have read the report wrong. My apologies.

I thought that seemed a bit high...

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:45 PM

Re: 119Kt

I have to agree, it does not seem to be moving much on the IR...almost none in the last third of the loop...I don't know what you mean though by north movement helps..it helps someone, but hurts another

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:46 PM

Re: 119Kt

advisory says basically hold the course, further west landfall? quicker turn but after landfall, I'd leave N.O now. possible 5 before landfall, eek

pryord1

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:46 PM

Re: 119Kt

Can anyone tell me how much the trough digging down from the NW can affect this system? Is there still a possiblility that it can pull back to the east before landfall?

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:47 PM

Re: 119Kt

Quote:

Here you go Hugh: "WITH THE LATEST CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 945 MB. THE AIRCRAFT HAVE FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AS HIGH AS 119 KT AT 8000 FT IN THE OUTER EYEWALL"

From the 5:00 Discussion. Those were flight level winds. I must have read the report wrong. My apologies.

I thought that seemed a bit high...

I assumed it was flight level (but didn't want to say it

). Anyway, they have not YET measured stronger winds at the surface. The 7pm advisory may see an increase there if the EWRC is finished by then, which looks possible anyway.

bn765

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:48 PM

Re: 119Kt

Wow... a possible cat 5 before landfall....Katrina means serious business

bobbutts

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:49 PM

Attachment

Re: Am I seeing this right on Key West Long Range Radar??

Quote:

It's been mentioned that due to the distance from the tower, that radar data is at an angle that makes motion unreliable.

Yes I believe the default Tilt for br radar is .5 deg
I'm using GR level 3 to view this storm from Key West radar and on this software the altitude of the return echo is displayed as you mouse over the radar. The display is ~32k feet at the eastern eyewall and ~45k feet where I'd guess the western eyewall would be. Katrina's core is passing the maximum range of this radar station.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:50 PM

Re: 119Kt

NHC says in their latest advisory that the replacement eyewall is currently 45-50 NMs wide. This is very large, and as it shrinks, could lead to substantial intensification.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:51 PM

Re: 119Kt

Quote:

Wow... a possible cat 5 before landfall....Katrina means serious business

Some people have been saying that since last night - but now the NHC is admitting/agreeing to it. Hopefully if it goes to N.O. they wil have had time to evacuated everyone - hopefully. I'm STILL not convinced that it won't swing east of that track though like Opal and Ivan.

UPDATE: The Weather Channel just showed an IR image where you could see the new eye potentially forming.

BLTizzle

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:52 PM

Re: 119Kt

this may have been asked already....but.....could this be THE ONE for New Orleans? With them being below sea level and all, with the current forecast track the storm surge would push all the water toward Lake Ponchetrain......could this be the one? I hope not for everyone's sake there....

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:53 PM

Re: 119Kt

Quote:

this may have been asked already....but.....could this be THE ONE for New Orleans? With them being below sea level and all, with the current forecast track the storm surge would push all the water toward Lake Ponchetrain......could this be the one? I hope not for everyone's sake there....

Forgive the simple, one-word answer, but... yes. Not only COULD it be, it looks like it IS.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:58 PM

Re: Am I seeing this right on Key West Long Range Radar??

Once again, MS is slow with coastal evac (Kissy in Pascagoula confirms this through PM). From CNN online:

"Robert Latham, director of the Mississippi Emergency Management Agency, said evacuations of tourists along the coast could begin late Saturday afternoon, followed by mandatory evacuations of coastal residents on Sunday."

JG - recon fixes every three hours now.

wiley

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:59 PM

Re: 119Kt

Then again, it's looked like a lot of things in the past few days...

bn765

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:04 PM

Re: 119Kt

Wow Bastardi was just on Fox News and he is very confident this will be at least a high Cat 4 and maybe a 5.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:05 PM

Re: 119Kt

Both the IR sat and visible are showing very little (if any) movement in the last hour...I think that we should have a good idea of its NW direction by tonight, but never forget about the right hook these things do at the coast...Opal, Erin, Dennis, and Ivan all went between 30-50 miles east of track in the last couple of hours..and if it gets as big and strong as forcasted, it may be able to go anywhere it wants...I like them better when they are moving at a fast clip like Dennis did...

hunterdm

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:06 PM

Re: 119Kt

Hi all, i 've been a lurker for awhile, and I must take a moment to say that you guys are all great, I have learned soo much! The thought of this being "THE ONE" for LA is extremely frightening. the affects of That kind of hit would not only wipe out NO, but would affect us all, wherever we are located. I will being Praying for anyone in the path of this bad girl. I am on the west coast of fl in alittle town called Crystal River that is sub sea level and cat 2 would swamp us for sure.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:07 PM

Re: 119Kt

joe's said the last 3 canes would bury new orleans, so 1 in 4 does not make his predictions that trustworthy. Now, when the nhc says a possible 5, then I start driving west.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:10 PM

Re: 119Kt

Quote:

joe's said the last 3 canes would bury new orleans, so 1 in 4 does not make his predictions that trustworthy. Now, when the nhc says a possible 5, then I start driving west.

You had to say that, didn't you?

From NHC 5pm Discussion:

Quote:

KATRINA SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT COMES OUT OF THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
CYCLE. THE GFDL IS NOW CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 131 KT...
WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL IS CALLING FOR 130 KT AND THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE 128 KT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR
STRENGTHENING TO 125 KT AT LANDFALL...AND THERE REMAINS A CHANCE
THAT KATRINA COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL. THERE REMAINS THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL CYCLE BEFORE LANDFALL...WHICH COULD THROW OFF THE INTENSITY
FORECAST A BIT.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:13 PM

Re: 119Kt

Quote:

Wow Bastardi was just on Fox News and he is very confident this will be at least a high Cat 4 and maybe a 5.

so is the NHC.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:14 PM

Re: 119Kt

like I said, DRIVING WEST

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:17 PM

Re: 119Kt

Quote:

Quote:

Wow Bastardi was just on Fox News and he is very confident this will be at least a high Cat 4 and maybe a 5.

so is the NHC.

SHIPS according to WU is forecasting 149 in 48 hrs, 141 in 72.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:18 PM

Re: 119Kt

New thread up folks.

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=tb2005&Number=50884#Post50884

Head on over there.