(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:00 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Looks like the eye wall is under construction. Usually means its going to get stronger. Spoke with my brother in law in NO. He said that I-10 is packed. People are using the shoulder as a 5th lane. North through Hammond is even worse. Also banks are going to be open late tonight . Gas is almost impossible to find.

The up side to this is that people are getting out.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:10 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

URNT12 KNHC 272105
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/20:54:10Z
B. 24 deg 38 min N
085 deg 28 min W
C. 700 mb 2646 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 171 deg 119 kt
G. 103 deg 030 nm
H. EXTRAP 949 mb
I. 12 C/ 2416 m
J. 15 C/ 3052 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. RAGGED
M. C40
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 WX12A KATRINA01 OB 10
MAX FL WIND 119 KT E QUAD 19:13:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

up and down......still in a ERC, but should be nearing end of it...

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:17 PM

Attachment

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Vortex shows not much movement during the ERC. Not sure if that will translate into a resumption west or west north west or the beginnings of another track. Of interest is the attachment which appears courtesy of wxman57 (a professional meterologist in Houston who is a frequent s2k poster). Enjoy or not.

Steve

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:22 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

I think the lack of movement can be confirmed in that the eye is still visible on Key West radar, Though the presentation is poor and telling a direction of movement not accurate, you can still see both sides of the circulation..if the west movement had continued in the last hour, thr west eyewall would be out of range, but it continues to be visible and stationary, I feel confirming the IR and Vis sats. I know that systems do these temp stalls, but movement has been consistent up until now...Any thoughts?

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:23 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

Vortex shows not much movement during the ERC. Not sure if that will translate into a resumption west or west north west or the beginnings of another track. Of interest is the attachment which appears courtesy of wxman57 (a professional meterologist in Houston who is a frequent s2k poster). Enjoy or not.

Steve

I'm getting very concerned. Looking at the visible loop, and overlaying the forecast positions, the new eye appears to be forming too far north to continue a westward motion. The entire central dense overcast seems shifted northward from the forecast position (but not west/east of it). Probably a wobble but enough of one to scare me right now.

ETA thoughts in response to Pcola: Yeah... my thoughts would be something along the lines of OH ****!

Let me clarify that... it DOES appear to me on visible and IR sat that Katrina is moving, at least in terms of the eye location... moving north or NNW or *maybe* NW. But as mets will say, we can pay much attention to wobbles.

FlaRebel

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:30 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

It also appears to me that the eyewall replacement is definitely more north. I've said all along I feel the track is too far west. I wish this thing would just go away.

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:30 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Steve, wow! What is the time of this forecast, was it based on the 5 pm info? Is Jason updating this regularly? I am certainly glad that I have completed my hurricane preps.

Kimmie

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:32 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

It also appears to me that the eyewall replacement is definitely more north. I've said all along I feel the track is too far west. I wish this thing would just go away.

Me too in both cases, but I *was* actually starting to BELIEVE the computer models and the NHC track that it would hit just west of N.O.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:33 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

One of the neat features of the CMISS floater graphic is it doesn't move the storm but instead moves the land outlines while keeping the storm's center centered.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/storm/archive/javanh2.html

If you watch the land move, the system is still clearly moving west with a slight northward movement. IR and Visible are very misleading on their own right now becuase the eye has filled in completely. Expect that to change in a few hours as the ERC (eyewall replacement cycle) finishes.

---------------

I think something people are ignoring about the potential result of the ERC is that the new eyewall is at 40 NMs now (based on Recon posted by StormHunter). That is a VERY large eye. With this large eye pressure is already at 945mb. 945mb is the max pressure usually associated with Category 3 storms. Now I realize the wind isn't yet Category 3, but wind takes time to catch up with pressure.

The problem begins when you look at what shrinking eyes do as they consolidate. They drop the presure of the system. Think of it as a valve. You have a certain amount of air that must get through it every minute. If you make it smaller, the air will flow faster. That is what happens with a shrinking eye, and the result is lower pressure becuase the air is moving faster.

With a central pressure already at 945mb, any lessening of the presure brings it easily into Category 4 range - the winds will just have more catching up to do, and expect the winds to catch up. Becuase of the size of the new eye, pressures below 920mb are not impossible when it shrinks. We need to watch this carefully.

--RC

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:33 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

That's mostly 18z and 12z runs. It's not Jason, he has another alias over there. This met is from Houston.

Steve

Evans

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:35 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

what about the wxman57 from Houston. Where do I see her Post?

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:35 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

I always err with the nhc bc they hit it 90% of the time, but it sure looks like al/fl border . I think it's history that makes our eyes lean that way. how deep and how fast is the trough moving? are there any models that have shifted to support the naked eye?

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:41 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

If you watch the land move, the system is still clearly moving west with a slight northward movement. IR and Visible are very misleading on their own right now becuase the eye has filled in completely. Expect that to change in a few hours as the ERC (eyewall replacement cycle) finishes.

Not at the end. If you look carefully the eye is NOT centered on the image at the end of the loop, it's moved up!

WXMAN RICHIE

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:42 PM

Local Met.

Local Met. in S. FL. thinks it could loop back more eastward, see below, anyone agree?

Katrina struggling to go anywhere except into least resistance. We must be careful as in cases where when we finally get a wide opening between the high over the western Central Gulf retrograding and a smaller over the Southwest Atlantic. In most cases as I looked at the old Eastern Airlines Aeronautics text book (graphical charts of movement of tropical cyclones movement of tropical cyclones section) the tendency for these storms is to move with the contour ribbon usually looking at the closely packed countours north of 35 North, in essence what this means is to look at what is going on over the 35 north latitude (My input to that also is there a trough? motion of air masses on water vapor loop??).

We can get a better picture using the water vapor loop motion of where the dry areas are going too which hurricanes will try to avoid. For now I see plenty of dry air pushing down toward Katrina and this is keeping Katrina on a quasistationary position in fact somewhat farther southwest and south of GFS runs from yesterday. I would keep a close watch on her she can still move eventually to the right if a trough or even the southwesterlies push down south of 35 north latititude.

There have been several major hurricanes that just sat there for days in the Gulf until a clear opening was present this means void of any dry boundaries or high pressure areas blocking it. If she moves farther southwest to South I would worry about a loop and change of direction when that happens the picture is completely different then and meanwhile the synpotic weather patterns are progessing along over the North American continent...remember we are getting already into the transistion to the fall upper air pattern over the U.S. Any major trough or impulse digging southeastward into the United States could help to push southwesterlies further south and east and finally break throug and capture Katrina...along with any high to the east over the Atlantic that would modify the track a little (orientation of western most contour or winds from any subtropical high from the Southwest Atlantic.

Right now you have a upper ridge/high line axis Northeast and Southwest that seperates the easterlies and the westerlies..in the Central Gulf area.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:43 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

Not at the end. If you look carefully the eye is NOT centered on the image at the end of the loop, it's moved up!

Actually, it hasn't. What is happening is the eye has become completely obscured. You're looking at a swirl of clouds over the eye that is rotating around the actual eye (almost on top of it actually). The move "north" is simply the illusion caused by the counter-clockwise rotation of central cloud the spiral.

Its hard to tell on the a storm-centered IR image, but the Visible shows it well. You can see the cloud rotating around a central point. If you use this visible CMISS link you will see what I'm talking about.

EDIT: Bad reference graphic. Fixed for the Visual one which I was talking about this time

HanKFranK

(User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:48 PM

Re: Local Met.

nope, don't agree at all. why would katrina move back through a building ridge? there's nothing to make that happen... the weakness it should sense will be north of it soon, with a building ridge to the east also forcing it north. it's more likely to go to texas than it is to head back the florida peninsula, with that ridge there.
HF 2148z27august

by the way, the 5pm twd indicates that 90L is developing. the early runs have it moving to near the NE caribbean in 4-5 days... some taking it up more to the north. we'll have to see how much of a wake 97L leaves.. 97L they're no longer paying much attention to. -HF

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:48 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Katrina is starting to enter the area of deep warm water to the west of her, this afternoon, and will be travelling over it throughout the evening.

Additional areas of warm water lay under the projected curved path to just south of LA.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:52 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

Its hard to tell on the a storm-centered IR image, but the Visible shows it well. You can see the cloud rotating around a central point. If you use this visible CMISS link you will see what I'm talking about.
EDIT: Bad reference graphic. Fixed for the Visual one which I was talking about this time

The northward motion is even MORE evident on that imagery!

hugh, two things. read the site rules about posting short, uninformative, one line stuff. if it looks like it belongs in a chat room, it doesn't belong here. also want to note that whenever a hurricane goes through an ERC, especially when it's not moving quickly, the process usually jars it around. i wouldn't make much of that north jog you're seeing. -HF

susieq

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:52 PM

Re: Local Met.

Can you give us a reference map for those ridges?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/ look at the gfs and nam 500mb plots. they show the height rises over florida, and the trough swinging down into the mississippi valley. -HF

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:53 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

Katrina is starting to enter the area of deep warm water to the west of her, this afternoon, and will be travelling over it throughout the evening.

Yeah, and the warmest water in the gulf will be beneath it just before landfall:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/05082712/10.html

Scroll down to the bottom on the link to see water temps. Don't pay attention to the storm strength parts of that graphic - GFS isn't good at forcasting tropical system intensity at all - it just doesn't have the resolution. I picked GFS becuase it was the newest of the graphics on that site, and shows a path very close to the one the NHC is predicting.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 27 2005 05:57 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

The northward motion is even MORE evident on that imagery!

Can't be the eye Hugh

- know why? The eye is 40NMs wide. What you're seeing is only about 5-10NMs.

Oh well, we'll never agree on this one. No sense arguing it for either of us

- only one solution: wait for the next recon! Should be one in about 2 hours I think, but they haven't posted tomorrow's schedule yet on NHC's website.

(Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:01 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

I only wish I saw some of these things you guys see. This stands to be the worst disaster in history. Possibly not in dollars, because things in Miami (Andrew) are more expensive than here, but the ramifacations of the current forecast track at the current forecast intensity for this city is catastrophic.

I am getting my stuff together for a early Sunday AM getaway. Hopefully one of these things you guys see comes to fruition, if y'all want it y'all can have it.

RedingtonBeachGuy

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:03 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

In preparing for evacuation, one tool you can use if you are heading towards Florida is the Florida Department of Transportation interactive traffic information website that can show you traffic flow.

http://www3.dot.state.fl.us/trafficinformation/

For instance, if you were to be heading East on I-10 from Pensacola 3:00 this afternoon, you would find the average speed to be 71 mph and more vehicles per hour than ever recorded historically.

TheElNino

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:18 PM

Katrina's Economic Impact

Just heard from the news reports that many of the oil rigs in the central and eastern Gulf are evacuating their workers from the platforms today. Also Chevron Texaco has their largest refinery at Pascagoula (just west of Mobile), it's one of the top ten largest in the U.S., so if it takes a direct hit from Katrina (which I think will be at least a strong Cat 4) the whole country may be impacted by a spike in gas prices.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:19 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

it may just be my eyes, but i think the ERC is over, or nearing the end and has moved the center a little more north than forecasted.... i haven't seen a recon report lately..... but i think the ERC moved the center north of forecasted track some.... this could just be a wobble though... i noticed in last hour new convection is flaring up on the SW side of what i think is the center...

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:21 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

it may just be my eyes, but i think the ERC is over, or nearing the end and has moved the center a little more north than forecasted.... i haven't seen a recon report lately..... but i think the ERC moved the center north of forecasted track some.... this could just be a wobble though... i noticed in last hour new convection is flaring up on the SW side of what i think is the center...

On the last visible image there is also a "deepening" if you will (a depression in the clouds) near where the new eye appears to be forming, which is north of the old eye. You can even begin to see a "stadium effect" again, which is scary. Hopefully it is just a wobble - hurricanes DO wobble.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:25 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

For instance, if you were to be heading East on I-10 from Pensacola 3:00 this afternoon, you would find the average speed to be 71 mph and more vehicles per hour than ever recorded historically.

incorrect.
more vehicles than the Historical Average

-- I stand corrected.. thank you!

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:25 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

I don't see the path for this thing to go significantly eastward (e.g. a loopback towards the FL peninsula - or really anything much east of Mobile.)

I just went through the expected pattern evolution for the next 48 hours, looking at the expected features over the US, in conjunction with the 4pmCDT advisory. Right now you can see the trough very clearly on the WV loop, along with the weakness on the tail end of it as it dives southward.

(I use the Unisys links for GOES, which can be had at http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_ir_enh_se_loop-12.html - from that link you can select WV, IR, Vis, which bird and which view, looped or single image. All in one place, very nice...)

Forecast is for that trough to lift out to the NE over the next 36 hours, leaving a weakness ahead of a second feature that is moving in across roughly the TX/OK boundary aproaching from the west. That gap looks to be roughly aligned right over the north of the system in 48 hours - right about when the forecast is for landfall. Ths is a clear weakness in the overall pattern and I see no reason for Katrina not to move into the gap, and then be forced NNE as the trailing feature moves east.

For the storm to move to the NE, the trough currently over Tennessee would have to dive further south than forecast and fail to lift out to the NE over the next 36 hours. If that was to occur then there would be a gradient that would lift Katrina to the NE - which is the scenario that some here are positing.

But - the northeast edge of that trough is already starting to fold up and back - clearly visible on the WV loop. For the trough to continue to hold its strength through the forecast period with that sort of presentation would be pretty odd at this time of year - you might see that in November, but not in August.

I'm not buying it. The high that was feeding dry air into the core from the north is basically off the table, which is why you're seeing the north and northeast quadrants explode. They were being inhibited by this inflow, and its gone. The relaxing of that influence is also what is picked up by the models in allowing the movement to the NW and North.

I buy the models at this point, absent some truly extraordinary changes in the overall pattern in the next 24 hours. If anything I'm seeing a bit east of the NHC's track, but not by much - and probably not terribly material in terms of those who are "under the gun."

In short, the cone looks good to me.... but with this system being as large as it is, the exact center isn't the issue - if you're within 100nm you're going to get some NASTY weather, especially to the east.

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:26 PM

Re: Local Met.

I have to agree a bit. I am not a weather expert by any means however, I just took a Met. Class and was wondering the same thing myself. I was looking for paths for Hurricane Elana who did something similar. Well, she stalled until she was able to find a way in. I know she was closer to the gulf coast but she was out in Gulf for several days from what I remember of it(I was eight at the time so, I don't remember alot). It just seems to me when you look at all the factors steering this storm(or not steering right now) she may make more of a turn than expected. I would hope that she doesn't because that brings it closer to me.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:28 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

The question is where is the break in the ridge going to develope? I think there is a definate nw or even NNW component now, and it looks like Katrina has found the road it wants to take. We will not know until recon confirms, but as I said earlier, the west side of the circulation is STILL visible on Key West Radar....if this trend continues, look for extension of watches to the east.. keep your eyes open Mobile

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:33 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

is it me or is this thing stalling? looks like its stalling and spinning around and around. from the last frame on the floater.

(Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:37 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

The problem is that the storm has just completed an EWRC and it's doing things in it's structure that makes it look like it moving in different directions. It will be interesting to see what happens now that the system is leveling off. There is some hint of a northward component to the system, but it's too hard to tell right now if it's a new motion or the internal structure of the system changing.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:38 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/288.jpg

don't think she will show her full eye today.... i think she tried last night and somewhat this morning...

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:39 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

is it me or is this thing stalling? looks like its stalling and spinning around and around. from the last frame on the floater.

Until that storm passes 27.34 N, I don't even want to hear that.

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:40 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Listening to the radio out of NOLA. They were interviewing someone from TWC. They said that there has not been a turn to the north, no more southern movement, going west for now. Contra Flow is now in operation and there is a bottleneck on I-10 and I-55 seems to be flowing better right now.

Kimmie

mbfly

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:50 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Part of the report from the University of South Alabama..........

Powerful Katrina is now moving slightly north of due west and will continue to curve more toward the northwest over the next 24 hours. The storm, although temporarily re-organizing its eyewall structure, will grow stronger over the weekend and a poses a grave threat to the north-central Gulf Coast by Monday.

Hurricane Katrina is presently undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle where the original eyewall becomes surrounded by a newly developing eyewall farther out from the center. Over a period of 12-24 hours, the inner eyewall dissipates and the storm temporarily weakens. However, the outer eyewall then becomes dominant and begins a contraction process which causes the eye to shrink and the storm then grows stronger. Right now, the inner eyewall of Katrina is dissipating and the storm is temporarily weakening; however a new outer eyewall is forming which will eventually begin to contract toward the center of the storm, leading to another round of significant intensification by tonight or early Sunday. It is during this next intensification round that Katrina will possibly reach Category 5 strength.

By Sunday, larger-scale weather systems in the central United States will force a weakening of the eastern U.S. high pressure ridge, which will ultimately turn Katrina northward... toward extreme Southeast Louisiana, Mississippi, and possibly southwest Alabama. It appears that Katrina will arrive on the coast of Louisiana late Monday morning and on the Mississippi coast Monday afternoon before progressing inland through the state of Mississippi with serious effects eastward into western Alabama.
All interests in New Orleans need to prepare for the worst. There is also the possibility that Katrina could turn toward the north-northeast just prior to landfall as it interacts with a jet stream disturbance over the central U.S.; in this event, the core of the storm may impact as far east as the Mobile area.

Katrina is expected to be a category 4 storm at landfall. It is possible that Katrina may reach category 5 intensity over the Gulf of Mexico loop current by Sunday before probably weakening back to a category 4 by landfall.

Because of the unique geography of the LA/MS area, an intense storm approaching SE Louisiana from the south will pile huge amounts of water into Lake Pontchartrain and the western portions of the Mississippi Sound, thereby producing storm surge elevations higher than they would otherwise be along a straight coastline. Storm surge heights could reach 18-20 feet in this region, should Katrina move inland near or just to the east of New Orleans as a category 4 storm.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 06:50 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

This storm reminds me of Ivan..it is obvious that Katrina is really getting strong because there is convection firing all around the center, but no clear visible eye..opal was just like that, even when winds hit 150mph before weakening, no clear eye, and in a similiar location

Steve H1

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:00 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Notice how the CDO is elongating from the south to north. I sense that some northward motion is imminent. The deepest convection shown on the Dvorak loop in grey is not the center. I have been looking at this storm six different ways during past few hours, and the center does appear a bit further north than previously. On visibles it is the "nipple" that is right in the center of the deepest banding. This feature is definitely north of the heavier banding we saw earlier this afternoon, when it was difficult to discern the center. I don't know for sure, let's see what the recon finds. Yes, 90L is getting better organized as it continues west, and should be classified soon.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:07 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Steve, judging by the latest vortex message, it does appear to be heading north of west now. Will have to wait to see if this is temporary or a more permanent move.

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:08 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

I live in the panhandle- Fort Walton/Destin/Niceville area. Should we be worried? Having dealt with Ivan and Dennis within just the past year I know what this is all about, but it's hard making a call on staying or leaving when it's not currently predicted to hit us head on. What do you guys think? Stay/Leave/Wait?

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:11 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

if you live in a storm surge area I say leave. There will be surge way to the east of lanfall. If you live in a good structure, stay, watch, unless there is a major change in track. I live in Gulf Breeze, staying, but the bags are packed just in case.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:22 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

I live in the panhandle- Fort Walton/Destin/Niceville area. Should we be worried? Having dealt with Ivan and Dennis within just the past year I know what this is all about, but it's hard making a call on staying or leaving when it's not currently predicted to hit us head on. What do you guys think? Stay/Leave/Wait?

I live in the same area and I never leave, but if you live in a flood zone, leave. Even if the current forecast holds - which I do not believe it will based upon the apparent northward motion that others are now seeing too I think - FWB will get surge that will likely breach Hwy 98 yet again, and maybe some heavy rain too. I'm not expecting strong winds (maybe 20-30 mph) if the landfall is N.O. or west, but that could change rapidly.

We should have a better idea tomorrow morning - wait, I said that last night. Well, maybe it will be true this time. Either way I don't live in a flood zone so I'm staying.

ETA: The IR now shows - I think - that Katrina has reached the latitude that is was expected to be at in 12 hours... which is a definate northward movement, if that's true. When is next recon due?

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:24 PM

CAT 3 Katrina Headed For Mobile To Ft. Walton Beach Landfall Window

#100 Published Friday August 27, 2005 at 7:00 pm EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm

Looking at latest satellite imagery CAT 3 Katrina is continuing to undergo an eyewall reformation cycle and has not strengthened in quite a while. She also appears to have become stationary or maybe is drifting slightly north of west or 280 deg. at 2-3 mph but it could be a trochoidal wobble.

I see no reason to change my landfall forecast that has been in effect since Friday evening, of between Mobile, AL and Fort Walton Beach, FL with a bulls eye on Gulf Breeze, FL on Monday 08/29/05.

I still think the easier forecast of the two is intensity. With very warm Gulf Of Mexico water temperature including the loop current ahead and as very little wind shear is forecasted, Katrina could easily reach a strong CAT 4 before landfall. But she could weaken back to a CAT 3 after leaving the loop current and also due to increased wind shear, prior to landfall, much like CAT 4 Opal did in 1995.

B.C.Francis

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:24 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

I was checking water temps around the possible landfall area and StationMRSL 1 Marsh Island at 29.44 N 92.06W had 93.6 degrees at 4:00 PM....Thats some warm water up there, and can that only help Katrina stay a powerful storm upon arrival on that coastline.....Weatherchef

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:26 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

Quote:

I live in the panhandle- Fort Walton/Destin/Niceville area. Should we be worried? Having dealt with Ivan and Dennis within just the past year I know what this is all about, but it's hard making a call on staying or leaving when it's not currently predicted to hit us head on. What do you guys think? Stay/Leave/Wait?

I live in the same area and I never leave, but if you live in a flood zone, leave. Even if the current forecast holds - which I do not believe it will based upon the apparent northward motion that others are now seeing too I think - FWB will get surge that will likely breach Hwy 98 yet again, and maybe some heavy rain too. I'm not expecting strong winds (maybe 20-30 mph) if the landfall is N.O. or west, but that could change rapidly.

We should have a better idea tomorrow morning - wait, I said that last night. Well, maybe it will be true this time. Either way I don't live in a flood zone so I'm staying.

Thankyou both for your replies. I don't live in a flood zone either and we have been incredibly lucky with damage from Ivan and Dennis. We had many limbs down but that was it. No roof damage, nothing. We left with both Ivan and Dennis and I really don't want to go through that again. My only concern is if Katrina turns, hits the area directly at category 5. I don't know if my family could handle that. It would be terrifying. So for now we'll just wait until tommorow and if we have to, we'll get out.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:32 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

Thankyou both for your replies. I don't live in a flood zone either and we have been incredibly lucky with damage from Ivan and Dennis. We had many limbs down but that was it. No roof damage, nothing. We left with both Ivan and Dennis and I really don't want to go through that again. My only concern is if Katrina turns, hits the area directly at category 5. I don't know if my family could handle that. It would be terrifying. So for now we'll just wait until tommorow and if we have to, we'll get out.

If Katrina strengths overnight and heads toward the FWB/Destin area... well, I don't want to think about that possibility.

One thing I just thought of: I wasn't alive in 1969, but as I understand it, people in the FWB area went to bed believing that Camille was headed toward them. Then in the morning the storm had turned toward the Mississippi coast. Hurricane Opal in 1995 was headed for a direct hit on New Orleans when I went to bed in Pensacola (I was in school at UWF at the time) - woke up and found out we were under a hurricane warning and evacuated that afternoon to Val-P, and still got slammed. Storms have a tendancy to change direction without warning.

Update: Pressure back down to 944. Here's the recon report:
URNT12 KNHC 272257
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/22:44:30Z
B. 24 deg 49 min N
085 deg 36 min W
C. 700 mb 2604 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 287 deg 083 kt
G. 207 deg 028 nm
H. EXTRAP 944 mb
I. 12 C/ 2745 m
J. 19 C/ 2746 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. RAGGED
M. E12/40/30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 WX12A KATRINA01 OB 12
MAX FL WIND 101 KT E QUAD 21:38:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
RAGGED EYE STRUCTURE APPEARS TO BE CONSOLIDATING

24 deg 49 min, 85 deg 36 min now. At 5pm it was 24.6, 85.6. There are 60 minutes in a degree aren't there? So that equals 24. 816, 85.6. There is your northward motion, it appears. Someone feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

(Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:38 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Hugh........there's no doubt that appears to be some kind of shift a tad bit north. I just question whether it was a motion or a product of the ERWC. I'm leaning towards the latter. Then again, if it wants to turn north now, by all means go on Katrina!

heynow

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:40 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

I posted this earlier in another thread here, but this thread seems more appropriate for my comments:

I live in Abbeville, LA--about 120 miles west of New Orleans and 20 miles from the coast. Everyone around here is nervous. We had a direct hit from Lili in '02 and a semi-direct hit from Andrew in '92, so the memories are fresh. Like everyone that lives on the Gulf of Mexico, we are intently watching Katrina and hoping for the best and planning for the worst. The very worst thing would be for Katrina to hit New Orleans. Not only would New Orleans be destroyed, but Louisiana's economy would be immeasurably affected. And by extension, the rest of the country. New Orleans is a major port and a major pipeline of trade and commerce for the United States. You never want to wish the devastation that a hurricane wreaks on someone else, but collectively as a nation, we do not want it to hit New Orleans (although it is just a matter of time before New Orleans takes a direct hit). Katrina could be our worst nightmare.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:40 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

Hugh........there's no doubt that appears to be some kind of shift a tad bit north. I just question whether it was a motion or a product of the ERWC. I'm leaning towards the latter. Then again, if it wants to turn north now, by all means go on Katrina!

I agree, there is some question as to what caused the northward "jog" - whether it was a jog or a relocation. I *hope* you're right, but if the eye relocated to the north, it will potentially have at least some impact on the track I would expect - if nothing else than to account for the initial position. Not necessarily significant, but a disturbing turn of events.

Once again, I HOPE you're right.

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:47 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

Hugh........there's no doubt that appears to be some kind of shift a tad bit north. I just question whether it was a motion or a product of the ERWC. I'm leaning towards the latter. Then again, if it wants to turn north now, by all means go on Katrina!

Is there a 8pm? if so it will tell us

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:48 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Wow.... I just got a freaky phone call. It was a recorded message from St. Tammany Parish President Kevin Davis. It requested evacuation of everyone in St. Tammany Parish south of I-12 by noon tomorrow. My mom talked to a friend of hers on the Parish Council and they commented that they were very concerned about all of the tornadoes that Katrina would spawn. Is there anyway one can know this in advance... I mean, shouldn't the threat of tornadoes be the same for all tropical systems and severe thunderstorms? They were also concerned about flooding, which is a logical concern for a lot of my Parish. I think I'm ok at ~24 feet elevation (if I recall).

Actually, I just put my address into terrafly.com and it spit out this info on my address:This point is at Latitude 30.383230, Longitude -90.060263, UTM Zone 15, Easting 782496, Northing 3364919 , Elevation 14 meters (46 feet +50 feet).... Can that really be??? I'm thinking the elevation map I once saw for my house was not this high...

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:49 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

Quote:

Hugh........there's no doubt that appears to be some kind of shift a tad bit north. I just question whether it was a motion or a product of the ERWC. I'm leaning towards the latter. Then again, if it wants to turn north now, by all means go on Katrina!

Is there a 8pm? if so it will tell us

Only an advisory, not a forecast track. I'm looking for the Adv but it does not appear to be out yet.

ETA to Terra: 24 ft is not very high for a Cat 5.

ETA: Katrina is now officially moving WNW at 7pm per the 7pm CT intermediate advisory. This motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Pressure is 944, winds remain 115, but the expectation is that Katrina will be a Cat 4 tomorrow.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:49 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

I am in a surge zone (potentially, exposure to the SW, on the bay - not the gulf) and stayed for both Ivan and Dennis.

Dennis didn't even get much water in the yard. Ivan threatened to flood the house, but we were home and able to stop it. Another 3-4" of water rise and all our flooring would have been destroyed, along with quite a bit of wallboard damage. The Sawzall would have gotten a LOT of use in that instance.

A storm that comes in and hooks east right over us is the worst possible scenario, which is what we got with Ivan.

As of right now I don't see the movement that causes me to want out right now.

I believe the discussion of a northward movement is overblown. I just got done looking at the GOES 12 hour loops, VIS, IR and WV, and what I saw looked like the eyewall replacement cycle.

Here's the projected short-range US forecast maps. (http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx.shtml] Note the 24, 36 and 48 hour expected weather maps.

By 6:00 AM tomorrow the trough is eroding, and by noon it is lifting out. If that verifies, then Katrina does not go east, unless it gets underneath it, which would require that it get on an eastward path in the next 12 hours so that it can stay under the trough.

I don't see that happening.

At 48 hours, the ridge (more of a hill than a ridge, really

) that is to the west is forecast to back west.

Between those two points you've got a weakness - a corridor - into which Katrina is heading.

This is what it appears the models are "seeing", and it looks good to me. There is some argument for a move to the west or east - but I believe these are small deviations, not large ones.

I'm boarded up but at this point not intending to leave. If I change my mind, it will be tomorrow late in the afternoon or evening, and will likely head east.

My "metric" is when Katrina marks north of 25 Latitude. The current projected path puts that happening at about midnight. We already got through the 4:00 CDT advisory without it happening, which was my "oh no, it may come right here" warning point. If its at or below 25N at the 10PM advisory, then that will increase my confidence in the projected paths the models are giving us. So long as we're seeing WNW - and not NW - by the AM I think we're far enough east here to get lots of rain and some wind, plus a moderate surge risk - but not the punishment we got with Ivan.

I expect that by the 11:00 AM advisory tomorrow we'll know if the underlying features on the board are verifying or not, and there will still be plenty of time to make final preparations and split if that's warranted.

So for now, I'm standing pat, as I don't see the players on the board that bring this beast east of the MS/AL state line.

Stay tuned, of course.... and take this for whatever you believe it worth - I can be just as wrong as anyone else, as came very close to being proved with Katrina dipping SW and nearly staying offshore Miami!

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:51 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Hugh........there's no doubt that appears to be some kind of shift a tad bit north. I just question whether it was a motion or a product of the ERWC. I'm leaning towards the latter. Then again, if it wants to turn north now, by all means go on Katrina!

Is there a 8pm? if so it will tell us

Only an advisory, not a forecast track. I'm looking for the Adv but it does not appear to be out yet.

ETA to Terra: 24 ft is not very high for a Cat 5.

I know about the track change is at 11pm i was looking for the 8pm i dont see it yet.The 8pm can tell us what direction it is going so the speculation will stop which way its heading right now

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:53 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

...Dangerous Hurricane Katrina begins to move toward the
west-northwest...
A Hurricane Watch is in effect along the northern Gulf Coast from
Intracoastal City to the Alabama-Florida border.

West northwest as predicted by the NHC

Katrina has begun to move toward the west-northwest near 7 mph.
This general motion should continue tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph...with higher gusts.
Katrina is a category three hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and
Katrina could become a category four hurricane later tonight or
Sunday.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:53 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

You should be able to access online somewhere (check your state's FEMA site) the flood zone maps for your county (parish in LA), which you will be able to zoom down to your street address. It will tell you which zone you are in for evac as far as flooding.

Some mandatory evacs are not enforced (not enough manpower). If you don't evac, make sure you have lots of bottled drinking water, etc.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:56 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

I don't understand these directions... W was classified as 0.1N, 0.2W from 2-5 and then WNW was classified as 0.2N, 0.3W.... Clearly the motion is more north than credit has been given. I'm telling you... the water vapor does not show me a storm going to NO. Even the VIS is starting to make it look east.

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:58 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

I don't understand these directions... W was classified as 0.1N, 0.2W from 2-5 and then WNW was classified as 0.2N, 0.3W.... Clearly the motion is more north than credit has been given. I'm telling you... the water vapor does not show me a storm going to NO. Even the VIS is starting to make it look east.

Terra i dont see what you are talking about? i have looked and i see the center has went wnw in the last bit.The eye went through a repalcement maybe that is what you are seeing but im sure they know directions.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:59 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

The motion on the NHC takes into account the position over the last 6 hours (I believe) avoid making a mistake on wobbles that may happen over 3 hours. However, it is definately a NW motion. the question is when will it become a North motion? As forcast or earlier. I think this motion is a bit more north than the NHC forcast but we need to wait and see.

RedingtonBeachGuy

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 07:59 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

I am not a met but I can tell you this.. we thought the same thing last year with Charlie down here in Florida. My advice is to error on the side of caution.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:00 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

NHC 18A advisory mentions the turn has started, and reiterates that hurricane warnings for N GOM will be posted tonight (I'm guessing they're waiting for the 11pm on this one, to state any track and intensity adjustments; once the turn is started they'll have a better idea about landfall).

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:02 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Well, just something to break the tension, I radio station here in Pensacola has asked all residents to go outside at 9 pm tonight and point their fans to the south and turn them on at the same time....I will tell you if it works..we might as well try anything!

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:04 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

I don't understand these directions... W was classified as 0.1N, 0.2W from 2-5 and then WNW was classified as 0.2N, 0.3W.... Clearly the motion is more north than credit has been given. I'm telling you... the water vapor does not show me a storm going to NO. Even the VIS is starting to make it look east.

Terra, one reason the motion may seem more north than the NHC is saying is that it is. The NHC motion is a basis of a 6 hour average. (Thus when there a big shifts, ala Charley in 04, the NHC direction may not be the actual direction).

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:06 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

2327Z GFDL update is out, shows path just west of the LA coast - basically the same as the NHC last advisory. This is a SLIGHT eastward motion from the last GFDL run (statistically insignificant, but there.)

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif

Note that the GFDL pegged the SW jog over the peninsula - it was a bit too fast with it, but it was the only model that picked it up - it seems to have a better handle on the rest of the weather map and its influence on this particular storm.....

(Edited to fix the link - the original site has some kind of problem, so I went back to the original source.)

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:07 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

The NHC motion is a basis of a 6 hour average.

I did not know this.... and it makes a lot of things (past storms included) make a lot more sense... So, yes, over the past 6 hours, motion was 0.3N, 0.5W... which is WNW. I'm mighty interested to see motion over the next three hours... and any new model runs...

Genesis read my mind... but, I have to reboot to see the plot, as I have the red X of death for the image.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:11 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:12 PM

President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/08/20050827-1.html

STATEMENT BY THE PRESS SECRETARY

The President today declared an emergency exists in the State of Louisiana and ordered Federal aid to supplement state and local response efforts in the parishes located in the path of Hurricane Katrina beginning on August 26, 2005, and continuing.

The President's action authorizes the Department of Homeland Security, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), to coordinate all disaster relief efforts which have the purpose of alleviating the hardship and suffering caused by the emergency on the local population, and to provide appropriate assistance for required emergency measures, authorized under Title V of the Stafford Act, to save lives, protect property and public health and safety, or to lessen or avert the threat of a catastrophe in the parishes of Allen, Avoyelles, Beauregard, Bienville, Bossier, Caddo, Caldwell, Claiborne, Catahoula, Concordia, De Soto, East Baton Rouge, East Carroll, East Feliciana, Evangeline, Franklin, Grant, Jackson, LaSalle, Lincoln, Livingston, Madison, Morehouse, Natchitoches, Pointe Coupee, Ouachita, Rapides, Red River, Richland, Sabine, St. Helena, St. Landry, Tensas, Union, Vernon, Webster, West Carroll, West Feliciana, and Winn.

Specifically, FEMA is authorized to identify, mobilize, and provide at its discretion, equipment and resources necessary to alleviate the impacts of the emergency. Debris removal and emergency protective measures, including direct Federal assistance, will be provided at 75 percent Federal funding.

Representing FEMA, Michael D. Brown, Under Secretary for Emergency Preparedness and Response, Department of Homeland Security, named William Lokey as the Federal Coordinating Officer for Federal recovery operations in the affected area.

317288

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:29 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

2327Z GFDL update is out, shows path just west of the LA coast - basically the same as the NHC last advisory. This is a SLIGHT eastward motion from the last GFDL run (statistically insignificant, but there.)

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_12.gif

Note that the GFDL pegged the SW jog over the peninsula - it was a bit too fast with it, but it was the only model that picked it up - it seems to have a better handle on the rest of the weather map and its influence on this particular storm.....

(Edited to fix the link - the original site has some kind of problem, so I went back to the original source.)

Would a new eye location north of the original eye position change the land fall location much? I heard the weather channel say it was having a eye replacement cycle.??

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:29 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

OK..I usually do not make predictions but I am very concerned at all the N.O. talk. People in Pensacola are not taking this serious, Yesterday they were but everyone here says it is NO (based on the weather channel) and are doing nothing. But if you take the path over the last 2 hours, and extrapolate it in a straight line of direction, this storm makes landfall on the MS/AL border. The angle puts the extreme NW Florida Panhandle in the front right quadrant, . Also, we know strong storms wobble. Dennis made landall in Navarre when it wobbled east, If it was on the west side of a wobble it would have been Gulf Shores, 50 miles west. Do not assume this is going to NO. These storms have a history of jogs right on landfall. Also the forecast says a gradual turn to the north.Ft Walton and Destin must not let down their guard. I really hope I am wrong!!!! I just settled with my insurance company for Dennis Monday, and have roof damage. But make sure everyone from NO to Panama City stays alert. The storm surge on the east will be huge!!

Black Pearl

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:30 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

The next forecast position is 24.9N 86.8W at 0600Z (2:00 AM EST). The position as of 8:00 PM EST is 24.8N 85.9W. This means that Katrina would have to travel .1N and .7W over the next 6 hrs to match the forecast position. Would not the current WNW motion take the storm further North than .1 over 6 hours? This suggests to me that the storm is indeed taking a path North earlier than expected. Is this correct?

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:32 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Great observation. Like I said. Everyone needs to pay attention.. This storm is VERY unpredictable!!!!!!!!

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:32 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

Would a new eye location north of the original eye position change the land fall location much? I heard the weather channel say it was having a eye replacement cycle.??

Depends upon how far north. In this case I would say the change from that alone would be minor. The storm appears to be continuing to turn, though. Since the eye is not currently visible it's hard to pinpoint but it appears that the motion is close to NW, but it might still be WNW by NW. Now looks like it's headed directly for the Louisiana Delta. If it turns more toward the north that would seemingly shift the landfall potentially significantly eastward.

(Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:35 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

Quote:

But if you take the path over the last 2 hours, and extrapolate it in a straight line of direction, this storm makes landfall on the MS/AL border. The angle puts the extreme NW Florida Panhandle in the front right quadrant.

Herein lies your problem. Stop trying extrapolate a 2 hour movement. I agree with your statement that everyone in the hurricane watch (Intracoastal City to MS/AL border) needs to pay close attention, but not based on a two hour movement that in my opinion still had move to do with the ERWC than that a overall shift in motion. Give it another 3-6 hours and lets see what happens.

Also, check your XTRAP, the storm moved .2N and .3W in the last three hours. If you take that out, you get 26.8 88.9......and that is not anywhere near the MS/AL line.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:39 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

I agree WeatherUNL. My concern is the lack of preparation here in Pcola. The NHC was perfect 4 days out on the Dennis track. Therefore everyone says that this track is written in stone..it is not..Virtually no preparation taking place on Pcola beach. Trying to get a point across to a few who have written this off for Mobile /Pensacola..a dangerous thing to do. Better safe than sorry

twizted sizter

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:40 PM

Position

Look at the water vapor loop w/forecast points...she appears to me to be well east of what would be the next point...am I reading wrong or has her position just not straightened out from the ERWC?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:41 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

Quote:

Quote:

But if you take the path over the last 2 hours, and extrapolate it in a straight line of direction, this storm makes landfall on the MS/AL border. The angle puts the extreme NW Florida Panhandle in the front right quadrant.

Herein lies your problem. Stop trying extrapolate a 2 hour movement. I agree with your statement that everyone in the hurricane watch (Intracoastal City to MS/AL border) needs to pay close attention, but not based on a two hour movement that in my opinion still had move to do with the ERWC than that a overall shift in motion. Give it another 3-6 hours and lets see what happens.

Also, check your XTRAP, the storm moved .2N and .3W in the last three hours. If you take that out, you get 26.8 88.9......and that is not anywhere near the MS/AL line.

Shouldn't we actually watch a 6-12 hour loop? Like you said, 2 hours is not going to be conclusive.

(Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:41 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

Quote:

I agree WeatherUNL. My concern is the lack of preparation here in Pcola. The NHC was perfect 4 days out on the Dennis track. Therefore everyone says that this track is written in stone..it is not..Virtually no preparation taking place on Pcola beach. Trying to get a point across to a few who have written this off for Mobile /Pensacola..a dangerous thing to do. Better safe than sorry

I agree 100% with that statement, no one needs to let their guards down, that would be plain silly. You have a potential CAT 5 hurricane in the eastern gulf and that's enough for us all to be worried.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:43 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

Quote:

Shouldn't we actually watch a 6-12 hour loop? Like you said, 2 hours is not going to be conclusive.

I'm watching a 6 hour WV loop. Net motion is closer to NW by my eyes than WNW.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:44 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

If we're going to obsess over each point, I'll grant you that the 23:45 point was mighty west...

zacman2400

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:47 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

I have been a long time lurker here and have decided to post. Hurricane Katrina if she hasnt already finished her eye wall replacement cycle, she will soon. From satellite images her outflow is looker better in all quadrants, and her core has gotten stronger. I agree with the NHC that this will be a category four hurricane, but not until she opens up her eye. Her pressure might even get down to 935 MB, but her winds will not correspondingly go up until she opens up the eye.
chances of her becoming category five?
Theres more here at play than high water temperatures. Historically hurricanes have weakened before landfall going into the North Gulf Coast. The only thing to weaken her though is shear forecasted during landfall. Most likely she will landfall as a category four 145 mph, but there is a small possibly she could strengthen to a category five. I have doubts though she could hold that intensity very long, due to her extended eye wall replacement cycle today.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:47 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

By the way, I see alot of people on here who kept me and my family in their prayers when Dennis's eye came over my house. I just read the old threads today of what you said after the roof blew off the house and I went offline. I want to take the opportunity to thank you for all your concern and kind words!! Thanks everyone!

(Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:48 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

Quote:

If we're going to obsess over each point, I'll grant you that the 23:45 point was mighty west...

Terra, I am not sure who you were responding to, but my whole point is to NOT obsess over every point. I am not trying to be mean or anything but extrapolating two hour movements, and "eyeballing" movements are not necessarily good ideas when you have a MAJOR hurricane bearning down on an area.

Please understand I mean no disrepect, I am simply trying to give my educated opinion.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:52 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

Well around noon I posted that I expected to see intensification start in the evening, and I think we are there from the sat images. Can't wait to see some recon.

We've been hearing this storm will have favorable conditions to intensify to a Cat 4, practically from the beginning, and after some long days here we are, at the point where everything is in place: the deep warm water, low shear, the storm building to the point where it is pushing away the dry air, the successful reorganization after an ERC.

Everything else is off my agenda tonight except watching Katrina, starting now.

Old Sailor

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:53 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

This Plot should help clean the track up some. think it was EWR gave a temp jog to north.

NHC Track vs. Recon

Dave

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:54 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

[quote
Terra, I am not sure who you were responding to, but my whole point is to NOT obsess over every point. I am not trying to be mean or anything but extrapolating two hour movements, and "eyeballing" movements are not necessarily good ideas when you have a MAJOR hurricane bearning down on an area.
Please understand I mean no disrepect, I am simply trying to give my educated opinion.

The education attempt is appreciated. Let me explain my reasoning, though - I'm looking at the shape and movement of the central dense overcast (CDO) - the whole storm, not just the eye. As the storm changes shape, it shows in some ways how it is being infliuenced by factors that will potentially steer it one way or the other.

Currently with the eye not visible on IR, it's easy to take some dry entrenchments as being the eye which can cause confused, too. It's hard to say which was Katrina will ultimately head, but it's "pointing" toward a more northward motion than the 4pm forecast, though. The 10pm forecast could stay the same, or it could move to the east. We'll find out at 10pm (CT).

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:54 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

Trust me, it wasn't an insult or attack to anyone, and I am not suggesting that we obsess over one point... we just keep saying north and that point was a definite west, so I wanted to show that each point can show a significantly different direction, so again, we should not obsess over each point...

Hugh... look again on the WV, although completely irrelevant to the overall discussion the point I am referring to was indeed west, meaning towards Texas, not east, meaning towards Florida. In fact, now I can say the same thing about the 00:15 point.... but, I am not trying to give a point by point perspective, just relaying that the northern motion may have been EWR related...

zacman2400

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:58 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

Katrina on the last satellite loops is opening her eye. This is when intensification should began. My hope out to New Orleans, and anywhere on the gulf coast.

00cj

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 08:59 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

question.......When does anyone think they will issue tropical storm watches? also a guess as to where they could extend?
thanks in advance..

edit: I know there are already Hurricane watches but they usually issue tropical storm watches in the areas that will only see trop. storm conditions. and not hurricane conditions.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:00 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

I'm seeing a northwest trend over the last 4-5 hours on the IR now, though it is very difficult to tell due to the lack of a well defined eye. It could be the result of the ERC or it could be an actual track change. We'll need a few vortex reports to know for sure.

------------

A technical note for people looking at animations from NOAA or NASA: I noticed a problem with Java 1.5 compatibility with those sites earlier today. If for some reason the animation doesn't load (error: "noinit" or something similar in the status bar), restart your browser. The issue is an out of memory issue due to Java 1.5 not cleaning up memory very well. Java 1.4 doesn't have this issue with those sites.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:02 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

Quote:

Trust me, it wasn't an insult or attack to anyone, and I am not suggesting that we obsess over one point... we just keep saying north and that point was a definite west, so I wanted to show that each point can show a significantly different direction, so again, we should not obsess over each point...
Hugh... look again on the WV, although completely irrelevant to the overall discussion the point I am referring to was indeed west, meaning towards Texas, not east, meaning towards Florida. In fact, now I can say the same thing about the 00:15 point.... but, I am not trying to give a point by point perspective, just relaying that the northern motion may have been EWR related...

I agree, point-by-point comparison is rather silly. My comparison between the 23:45 point was to compare it to the forecast position for that time, not the relative motion. Katrina has move less west than she was forecast to at the 4pm CT forecast, thus far at least. The north "jog" MAY have been EWR related, I'll grant that. - also known as a "wobble"... but the overall presentation of Katrina - while becoming more and more impressive, is also becoming somewhat polar-oriented. The outflow is now approaching the Big Bend to the NE of Katrina, but has not gonna any closer to N.O. (well maybe a bit). The actual vortex may not have turned yet, and that is what the recon will tell us.

Dawn

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:20 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

Are you saying that it may still come back to Florida? If you are I agree, not that I want that to happen, look at Radar and Satellite, just not doing the NO thing that I can see. Hope I am wrong - but at this time somebody is going to get this storm and I am sorry I can not stop it.

docjoe

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:27 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

I believe it will intensify and head to santa rosa county simply because the roofers just finished my new post dennis roof about 3 hours ago!!! Seriously as one who has had enough ivan and dennis to last a lifetime i hope tuesday AM finds everyone safe and sound. Also i for one appreciate everyones opinion and take on what is going on with Katrina!

docjoe

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:29 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

OK guys, like I said, it's starting.

Recon up on NHC website shows extrap 942mb, and still 8 deg diff at the eyewall. 90kt max fl winds in SW quad, ragged elip eyewall. Surprised the winds still so low.

This was from 90 min ago on a run from the SW quad to the NE quad.

Usually we have a mod or someone who posts recon info. Guess we'll have to wait for add'l info.

teal61

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:30 PM

Well Hugh, here's your vortex comparison...

A. 27/22:44:30Z
B. 24 deg 49 min N
085 deg 36 min W

A. 28/00:01:40Z
B. 24 deg 50 min N
085 deg 51 min W

Due west for 1hour 15 min. What does this mean? Probably not much.

(Really Not an Expert)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:32 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

I think it starting to feel the affect of the trough to the north this is why it made that early turn in my guss.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:34 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

I think it starting to feel the affect of the trough to the north this is why it made that early turn in my guss.

Looks like it was probably just a temporary wobble after all. We'll see, but it does look like it will strengthen at 10pm based upon the pressure drop down to 942 again and the closed, albeit ragged, eye.

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:35 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Thanks for explaining the difference in direction! Like Terra said, that explains a lot. So, say for instance that we are seeing a more n/nw motion, the NHC will wait for 6 hours before putting that as a confirmed direction?
I've been watching TWC and I thought I was nuts because I thought I was seeing a more north/nw motion, and of course this could have been due to the EWRC. When they came out with the WNW, I thought I'd lost my mind. Which is still a possibility.

I am glad that the officials in LA are taking this storm so seriously, getting people out early; but like someone else said there are almost no preparations going on in Pensacola eastward. *IF* the track changes -- even shifts a tad to the east at landfall, it's going to be ugly. I just saw someone on CNN complaining about what a pain it is to board up his windows. Same thing in Gulf Shores. I'm sure this is not a majority of the people in those areas, but with this storm only 36 +/- hours away, I think they are playing with fire.
My thoughts go out to those in the path of this storm...I just can't believe this is happening again! Please be safe and do what you can to keep yourselves out of danger.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:40 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

Quote:

OK guys, like I said, it's starting.

Recon up on NHC website shows extrap 942mb, and still 8 deg diff at the eyewall. 90kt max fl winds in SW quad, ragged elip eyewall. Surprised the winds still so low.

This was from 90 min ago on a run from the SW quad to the NE quad.

Usually we have a mod or someone who posts recon info. Guess we'll have to wait for add'l info.

You can read vortex messages on the NHC itself or just ask away, I'm happy to pm or post them to. The mods I'm sure are swamped tonight...

000
URNT12 KNHC 280034
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/00:01:40Z
B. 24 deg 50 min N
085 deg 51 min W
C. 700 mb 2587 m
D. 45 kt
E. 217 deg 056 nm
F. 285 deg 090 kt
G. 209 deg 008 nm
H. EXTRAP 942 mb
I. 10 C/ 3042 m
J. 18 C/ 3049 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. E12/40/30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1512A KATRINA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 90 KT SW QUAD 23:59:10 Z
MAX FL TEMP 19C 320/6NM FROM FL CENTER
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700MB
RAGGED EYE WALL

MikeC

(Admin)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:41 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

Quote:

Usually we have a mod or someone who posts recon info. Guess we'll have to wait for add'l info.

There is a recon info link on the left as well. Although it's not as quick as some other sources to update. You can feed it any data.

Black Pearl

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:42 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

I know exactly what you mean Colleen. The attitude I have seen around here has been fairly relaxed, although our local met has said that if Katrina stays on the forecasted path and makes landfall near New Orleans, our area will still experience hurricane force winds and a storm surge of 7 - 9 ft.

MichaelA

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:43 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

I think it starting to feel the affect of the trough to the north this is why it made that early turn in my guss.

Not quite yet:

ConUS WV Loop

DebbiePSL

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:48 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Anyone in the cone should take heed. Katrina has a mind of her own and there is still alot of uncertainty about where she will make landfall.. hopefully we will know more with the next update. Also I heard Cantore say she is already one for the history books----- first time since 1916 that 3 major hurricanes will make landfall in the Gulf in one season

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:52 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

Anyone in the cone should take heed. Katrina has a mind of her own and there is still alot of uncertainty about where she will make landfall.. hopefully we will know more with the next update. Also I heard Cantore say she is already one for the history books----- first time since 1916 that 3 major hurricanes will make landfall in the Gulf in one season

Maybe Katrina will fall apart and be a cat 1/2 at landfall. Hey, don't laugh, I've seen it happen before.

Anyway, I think even the cone will need to be expanded in the next update if the turn trend continues - although the last recon seemed to indicate it was not continuing, so who knows? If it does appear to be turning early, the forecast track will likely shift, and with it, the cone.

No one is out of danger yet.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:55 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

OK I guess I wasn't being clear. I already saw the recon data you posted because I went to the NHC site and as you could see, I put some of the info in my post, that you responded to. I don't cut and past the recon data in full because the mods request that we don't do it. As Mike also pointed out it is right here on the board as well. What I was asking was since that was 90 min old (and now about 2 hours old) is there any other recon data? I wasn't asking to see the data that I already saw and commented on in my post.

More specifically I'm looking for information about other runs that might have found stronger winds. I realize the storm grew when it reorganized but still I was surprised at the low intensities. If you went by the recon data it looks like a Cat 2 with a Cat 4 pressure. If you look on the sat images, it is looking pretty impressive. So I am trying to reconcile this info.

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:59 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

In the many years that I have been watching these storms, I would not expect to see a track shift at 11pm. They will wait to see if this trend continues for another 6 hours (basically until 5am). However, if you see the hurricane watch expand further east, you may get an inkling of what they are thinking. I would expect to see TS Watches/Warnings go up in the watch area and further east.
**Sidenote: everytime I try to predict what the NHC will/will not do, I am usually wrong. So take this with a grain (or shaker) of salt.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:59 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

Quote:

OK I guess I wasn't being clear. I already saw the recon data you posted because I went to the NHC site and as you could see, I put some of the info in my post, that you responded to. I don't cut and past the recon data in full because the mods request that we don't do it. As Mike also pointed out it is right here on the board as well. What I was asking was since that was 90 min old (and now about 2 hours old) is there any other recon data? I wasn't asking to see the data that I already saw and commented on in my post.

More specifically I'm looking for information about other runs that might have found stronger winds. I realize the storm grew when it reorganized but still I was surprised at the low intensities. If you went by the recon data it looks like a Cat 2 with a Cat 4 pressure. If you look on the sat images, it is looking pretty impressive. So I am trying to reconcile this info.

Click on the RECCO obs and use the legend to translate. That's my best suggestion. I'm afraid that by morning, we'll wake up to something stronger and the recon data will support it. Just be patient as all of the good hurricane sites (like this one) are very slow now, at least at my location (and I'm on 5 mb cable!).

Even the NHC is slowing down and I'm sure it's because many are anticipating this to be a storm of historic proportions.

(Really Not an Expert)

Sat Aug 27 2005 09:59 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

This is the tricky part of the uncertain track of Katrina.If she keeps moving this slow at 7 MPH am pretty sure the trough is going to arive and pick her up to the N/NE. If she decide to speed up then she will start to beat the trough to the north.

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:00 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

Maybe Katrina will fall apart and be a cat 1/2 at landfall. Hey, don't laugh, I've seen it happen before.

Anyway, I think even the cone will need to be expanded in the next update if the turn trend continues - although the last recon seemed to indicate it was not continuing, so who knows? If it does appear to be turning early, the forecast track will likely shift, and with it, the cone.

No one is out of danger yet.

Agh! This is even more frustrating than Ivan and Dennis! At least we knew they were coming at us, you know?
We evacuate to Alabama only about 75mi north, so I'm not even sure if it's worth it to go. Plus, it seems they get more tornadoes there. I just don't know what to do.

-K in Okaloosa

MichaelA

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:01 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

The corresponding wind speed increase lags behind the pressure drop. Should show in the 10PM CDT advisory.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:01 PM

Katrina Drives People Away from Gulf Coast

CNN online has this headline, "Katrina Drives People Away from Gulf Coast." Just below the headline is a picture of Katrina herself behind the wheel of a very large bus on I-10, filled with a lot of crazed French Quarter partygoers, hanging out from the windows. I can just make out grafitti spray painted on the side of the bus, "The Big Easy Welcomes The Big Splash."

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:03 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

This is the tricky part of the uncertain track of Katrina.If she keeps moving this slow at 7 MPH am pretty sure the trough is going to arive and pick her up to the N/NE. If she decide to speed up then she will start to beat the trough to the north.

I believe you're right. It looks to me like she is speeding up and moving NW, but again you can't make anything of temporary jogs. The longer times goes by, the more likely a track east of N.O. is looking based upon what you indicate, though - which would be great news for N.O. but devastating for someone else.

MadDog

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:05 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html

I like the track comparison but what I would like to know is timing. Does this NHC track reflect the slowness of Katrina?

(Really Not an Expert)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:08 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

This sound crazy but everyone from just north of tampa to new orleans need to watch this system. It been real hard tracking this hurricane.

Kal

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:09 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

FYI - Local Met (NBC 15 - Mobile) reporting that current watch area will be upgraded to a warning in the next advisory, with areas east of that warning to Destin, FL placed under a Hurricane Watch/TS Warning.

bn765

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:10 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

What does everyone think the winds will be at the 11:00 advisory?

(Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:12 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

10PM will basically be an update of the 4PM advisory.

Hurricane Warnings will be issued from Morgan City to the AL/FL line and there will be Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Watches from west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City and from east of the AL/FL line to Destin.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:13 PM

Re: President Bush declares State of Emergency in Louisiana

Quote:

The corresponding wind speed increase lags behind the pressure drop. Should show in the 10PM CDT advisory.

Well it will only show in the advis if recon actually found higher winds.

From the one recon that I saw, I Katrina still remains mysteriously lacking the expected windfield and a well-formed eye, yet has impressive organization, lower-than-expected pressure, a high temp differential at the eyewall. This is a very strange storm.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:14 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

What does everyone think the winds will be at the 11:00 advisory?

Somewhere between 115 and 150. I suspect 120, but that's just a hunch based upon the pressure.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:14 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

the last few frames of the IR really show her tightening up.
starting to get that symmetrical look.

but the winds probably haven't caught up yet. I'll say 115 or 120.
the next 12 hours may be explosive deepening.

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:17 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

warning to Destin, FL placed under a Hurricane Watch/TS Warning.

Yes but what does it mean? What do they want us to do? LOL - I am totally lost over this one.

WindyWx

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:17 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Couldn't agree more. Would expect a wait and see approach.

I have noticed the southwest to northeast streaks on the Atlantic Basin WV occurring in extreme southwest Georgia. And if you look closer you can see it even more dramatically over Louisianna.

Now for the Mets.... is that the trough? If so, wouldn't that start to indicate that what we are seeing is a more significant turn earlier - (also that it's a turn that will continue as the trough moves in). Therefore indicating a further east landfall?

Not saying this is happening... just asking if this is something that we "could" be seeing.

Thoughts?

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:21 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Katrina has grown quite large since yesterday. It appears that she has almost doubled in area.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:22 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

the size of the storm alone could be the reason to expand the watches, etc east. The storm grew immensely today and that will cause greater impact further east regardless of landfall. I think?

MichaelA

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:22 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

There is also satellite analysis to fall back on.

Here is a buoy still reporting gusts to 76 MPH located 86 NM from the storm's center. Also click the Latest observations link at the top of the page.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:25 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

the size of the storm alone could be the reason to expand the watches, etc east. The storm grew immensely today and that will cause greater impact further east regardless of landfall. I think?

Agreed, and that may be the sole reason for extending the warning and puting the watch and t.s. warning up in Florida at this point in time. I would expect further changes at the 4am advisory package, too, if current intensification and movement trend continues. It's going to be a long day tomorrow, watching, waiting, and praying.

Pressure drop down to 939. Basically storm is now due south of FWB.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:27 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

It's going to be a long day tomorrow, watching, waiting, and praying.

... and evacuating... sigh... since I am now under mandatory evacuation order by noon tomorrow. I don't understand why St. Tammany Parish south of I-12 is under mandatory order, but Orleans Parish is still only suggested.

Edit... maybe it's because if you xtrap (where's my model when I need it!) the storm ends up hitting my Parish directly.... rather than the up from the south scenario. Better for NO, I guess, but not for me...

Kal

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:27 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

Yes but what does it mean? What do they want us to do? LOL - I am totally lost over this one.

At this point Baudelaire there is no official guidance from Okaloosa County. According to the school board's website the county stood down from emergency mode sometime today. At last report this morning Hurlburt Field had opted not to evacuate aircraft. I'm a little concerned that any shift eastward could bring the fringes of the windfield over our way, and catch more than a few of us on the Panhandle off-guard. Time will tell I suppose.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:32 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

At this point Baudelaire there is no official guidance from Okaloosa County. According to the school board's website the county stood down from emergency mode sometime today. At last report this morning Hurlburt Field had opted not to evacuate aircraft. I'm a little concerned that any shift eastward could bring the fringes of the windfield over our way, and catch more than a few of us on the Panhandle off-guard. Time will tell I suppose.

Hurlburt website says HurriCon 3 declared yesterday I think, no update beyodn that. Eglin at HurriCon 4 still as of last update. I didn't know Okaloosa EOC every got activated - thought that usually did not happen until watch/warning was posted. Since one now HAS been posted, EOC may be activated tomorrow at least partially. I'm MORE than a little concerned that any shift eastward could bring more than just fringes of the windfield over our way. Having said that, it may not continue this way at all - too early to say.

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:34 PM

Katrina

The Watch area has been extended east ward due to Katrina adding a northward component to her movement. ( In other words she began to turn slightly toward the NW )
The latest winds that I'm seeing from recon indicate no change in the Max sustained wind. At This Time!
They eye is down to 30nm diameter and the pressure has dropped to 939mb based on the latest fix.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:35 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/01:48:30Z
B. 24 deg 56 min N
086 deg 12 min W
C. 700 mb 2572 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 045 deg 104 kt
G. 320 deg 030 nm
H. 939 mb
I. 10 C/ 3047 m
J. 18 C/ 3045 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1512A KATRINA OB 09
MAX FL WIND 110 KT NE QUAD 00:18:10 Z
EYEWALL STILL SOMEWHAT RAGGED

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:35 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

I sure wish we could get a comprehensive met post tonight. Looking at the trough and the current path it is hard to imagine it won't turn and hit the al coast again. but I suppose there are other factors they know of that I'm unaware. This time of year these troughs weaken significantly around the Ark area and dive off and if that happens , I suppose it would stay w and then nw. my eyes look through history unfortunately and keep making me look at gulf shores.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:37 PM

Re: Katrina

what are your thought on the hatties.... area? how's flow tonight?

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:39 PM

Request

Due to the amount of post being generated and the seriousness of the current situation.

Please do not use the quotes. They take up entirely too much room. If you have a question about the origin of the post...Please PM the member that posted it. Thanks At this time there are 541 people viewing the site. 0239Z~danielw

Bev

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:39 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

Quote:

It's going to be a long day tomorrow, watching, waiting, and praying.

... and evacuating... sigh... since I am now under mandatory evacuation order by noon tomorrow. I don't understand why St. Tammany Parish south of I-12 is under mandatory order, but Orleans Parish is still only suggested.

I recently read some of the scientific papers written on the difficulties of evacuating Louisiana. It was interesting and somewhat frightening.

They implement incremental mandatory evacuations in order to allow as many people out as possible without causing gridlock. i.e. Mandatory for this area causes x number of cars on x number of roads. Those should be lessening within x hours, so implement next mandatory. So on and so forth. The problem is that in order to evacuate New Orleans successfully it requires 72 hours, which at this point, we don't have.

No easy answers. Should officials call early and often for evacuation when a storm has even a small chance of hitting within 72 hours and risk the "crying wolf" reaction to creep into the populace' mindset or should they wait until 48 hours as they have in this instance and risk losing some who will be unable to escape?

-Bev

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:42 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

vortex

Ok this is what I expected to see about 90 min ago.

I guess it is taking longer for the eyewall to form but now it is no longer eliptical and the appearance is improving.

There are winds I expected to see, and we're now just below 940mb.

Thanks dw!

MrSpock

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:43 PM

Re: Katrina

I hadn't seen anything in a few hours, but looking at the sat pics, it looks clear that the storm is to the right of the forecast point using the CIMSS link. If it's going to be this strong anyway, it would be nice to have a clear eye to track. It is also striking how much this storm has grown in size. Earlier I posted that I felt this would stay east of the Mississippi, and I think this track slightly to the right increases that possibility. Eventually this pressure drop is going to have to wind up the winds. I guess I should check, but one possibility is that maybe surrounding pressures are lower than normal.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:46 PM

Re: Katrina

Yes, the surrounding pressures earlier were lower than "normal" - someone mentioned that. Still, 939 seems very low for a cat 3 storm, and a "minimal" cat 3 storm at that.

ETA: 10pm CT package. Forecast changed by .1 of a degree to the east I think, if at all. Intensity remains 115 MPH, forecast is basically identical. Storm moving at 290 degrees now at 6kts, expected to turn to the NW tomorrow. Landfall projected intensity near 125 knots. Discussion indicates the difficulty in intensity forecasting with regard to ERC.

Weather Underground map shows landfall at New Orleans., between Sunday and Monday, which is the current global consensus, although I still believe that is too far west.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:46 PM

Re: Katrina

recon on leg.... inbound had MF104 and on outbound had MF102 ....first time i think in two quads... winds over 100mph at flight level..... katrina is doing better... still ragged eyewall though

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:51 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Yes, you're right...and the NHC may be giving a hint to the people in Destin to get their act together. TS watches/warnings would be necessary because they will be on the east side of the storm.
I wish this storm would speed up like Dennis did...this must be absolute torture for those in her path.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:52 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

I wish this storm would speed up like Dennis did...this must be absolute torture for those in her path.

I think the slower it goes the less we (southern LA) will be in its direct path. I'd rather slow motion that turns away from a direct hit, then fast motion that continues right at us. No offense to anyone east of me, of course.

WindyWx

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:53 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Quote:

I sure wish we could get a comprehensive met post tonight. Looking at the trough and the current path it is hard to imagine it won't turn and hit the al coast again. but I suppose there are other factors they know of that I'm unaware. This time of year these troughs weaken significantly around the Ark area and dive off and if that happens , I suppose it would stay w and then nw. my eyes look through history unfortunately and keep making me look at gulf shores.

will be interesting to watch for any sign of further shifts to the right of the current 305 degree heading

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:54 PM

Wow, look at the last IR *DELETED*

Post deleted by danielw

LoisCane

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:54 PM

Re: Katrina

She's so big. Amazing to watch spin. With all the models in agreement they have to take action in evacuations. And, truth is... many people wait.. make a plan A and then a plan B and how far inland can you go? So much depends on so much. If she hits left or right... angle she comes in.. either way the storm surge is going to be immense (as data already shows) as there is no where else for all of that water to go. And, remember after Dennis there was a town flooded far from landfall.. just the way the water fills up and hits the shoreline there makes a big difference.

Then again.. Key West had tremendous flooding from Katrina and they weren't expecting much so.. even though it's hard to not think on exact landfall point.. with so many low lying areas both east and west of New Orleans.. it's going to be a mess.

Miami-Dade is still a mess and Key West and the lower Keys are pretty bad.

A really hard one for the forecasters to have to work with as so far she has tended to do her own thing.

Bobbi.. much prayers and much luck and prepare all you can
Run from the Water, Hide from the Wind.. good saying to remember

Sportsfreak1989s

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:54 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

I have one question to ask. I live in the Lafayette, LA area and was wondering if there would be any chance of Katrina taking some type of a different track and come our way. There are two models up on the latest advisory that are taking it into a near-by Parish which would still be devastating. So I guess to sum it all up, can Katrina come up through Intracoastal City and into Lafayette Parish or a near-by parish?

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:55 PM

Re: Wow, look at the last IR

In the last couple of frames the eye has started to become well defined:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

Stevie D

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:56 PM

Re: Katrina

Just went to visit the I-10 US HWY 49 Interchange in Gulfport. East bound traffic was heavy, comparable to the 4th of July Weekend traffic, but moving at 70+. Traffic Northbound on 49 was moving fairly well, comparable to 5PM Friday afternoon traffic flow, but no trucks, boats or RV's in the traffic.

For every body that leaving St. Tammany Parish, come on over, the traffic is fine.

Me? I am staying. House is 26 ft above sea level, business is 35 ft above sea level, and both are 6 miles inland. Gosh darn, the business must be on the equivilent of a Mississippi mountain.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:56 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

I just went to the Okaloosa County website. EOC has apparently either just been activated, or will soon be - the site is autoforwarding to the EOC site which it was not doing between the TS warning was posted. The only notice is that county offices and schools will be open Monday, and that there are no closures and no shelters open.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 10:58 PM

Re: Katrina

The 10pm NHC discussion mentioned the sat features we have been seeing this evening:

"the wind field is expanding...The satellite presentation...has been changing from a coil to a ring of very deep convection throughout the evening"

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:02 PM

Re: Katrina

I especially liked the comment "FANCY WORDS FOR A WARM OCEAN" personally. Looks like the track was shifted ever so slightly east? Or, am I hallucinating... nah... neither, it just changed direction slightly once it hit LA (in the same place). Goodnight... see yall around 5AM... hoping for the best...

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:06 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

You really need to listen to what your local mets are saying and heed any evacuation orders. I live 40 miles inland from Tampa and Charley hit the southeastern part of this county --- and Orlando -- really hard. Same thing with Frances and Jeanne.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:19 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Katrina this evening is beginning to once again look like a monster on the IR and WV imagery - not that it didn't look like a monster before but it's REALLY looking like a MONSTER now. When a hurricane IR signature resembles a doughnut it's time to get out of the way. I would be surprised if the next recon does not find a pressure in the 920-930 range and winds in excess of 130mph. But Katrina has surprised me so many times so far...

Kal

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:25 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Earlier a few folks were asking about storm preps in Okaloosa County, FL. According to the latest Battle Staff Directive from the 16th Special Operations Wing at Hurlburt Field, they are currently processing cargo and personnel for a possible aircraft evacuation. Key personnel are to respond within 1 hour of (any) notification. The next Battlestaff briefing is now scheduled for 28 Aug 05 at 0700L. There is no scheduled evacuation at this time.

No evac, but Hurlburt Field is definitely taking notice.

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:25 PM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

#101 Published Friday August 27, 2005 at 11:15 pm EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm

At the 11:00 pm EDT advisory CAT 3 Katrina has a sustained wind of 115 mph, is at position 25.0 deg. N 86.2 deg. W, with a minimum barometric pressure of 27.73" and is currently on a WNW heading or 290 degrees at a speed of 7 mph. But looking at latest satellite imagery she appears to be on a 300 deg. Also is continuing to undergo an eyewall reformation cycle and has not strengthened in quite a while.

I continue to see no reason to change my landfall forecast that has been in effect since Friday evening, of between Mobile, AL and Fort Walton Beach, FL with a bulls eye on Gulf Breeze, FL on Monday 08/29/05.

I still think the easier forecast of the two is intensity. With very warm Gulf Of Mexico water temperature including the loop current ahead and as very little wind shear is forecasted, Katrina could easily reach a strong CAT 4 before landfall. But she could weaken back to a CAT 3 after leaving the loop current and also due to increased wind shear, prior to landfall, much like CAT 4 Opal did in 1995.

By the way it strikes me as kind of odd that the NHC/TPC has extended a tropical storm warning eastward to Destin, FL well east of the forecast track error cone!

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:26 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Heres my thought, I think she will be east of the track predicted. She is moving awful slow and that alows for her to turn sooner than they thought. I am just wondering what effects we here in Tampa may feel? As of right now its just breezy, no biggie. She is a monster of a storm. Big girl. I really hope all the people told to go, leave. Not worth staying for. :?:

Myles

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:28 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Wow, katrina is looking very impressive now. Almost as good as when Emily was at her strongest with 150 mph winds. Take a look here and scroll down until you see the animated infrared loops and you'll see what I mean. If this monster doesnt go through another ERC before landfall it very well could be a cat 5, because unlike waters where Ivan and Dennis went through before landfall, the gulf is still pretty deep as long as Katrina doesnt curve too far northward. With deep waters that only get hotter the closer you get to the coast, this thing is going to wreak some havoc.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:29 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

I'm surprised that Eglin has not gone to Hurricane Condition 3. Hurlburt did last night or this morning.
I'd expect Hurlburt to go to HC 2 tomorrow, though - maybe Eglin is far enough away that it won't have the impact that Hurlburt will. That was the case with Dennis.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:31 PM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

"By the way it strikes me as kind of odd that the NHC/TPC has extended a tropical storm warning eastward to Destin, FL well east of the forecast track error cone!"

Not really. Tropical storm force winds extend 160 miles out. If Katrina struck on the East edge of the cone that's about the same distance to Destin.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:36 PM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

all posts from florida feel like it will turn east and hit florida. That's just history speaking to you. watch the current situation, it ain't turning east but n, nw. big difference

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:38 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

As big as she is (and I'm not sure if she is as big as Georges was) if she hits further east, Tampa will get more of the outer bands like we experienced with Georges. I am also wondering if her size will have any effect on her movement. I *thought* that larger storms usually like to move more poleward --- toward the north. I do not know if that is actually a fact, but it's been mentioned many times here and on other forums. She just has so much water to work with and at the slow pace she is going, I believe she is only going to get larger. I am not usually in disagreement with the NHC and I am not saying that I am, but at this point I think there is still a good possibility that the track will shift east...how much? I have no idea. I do know that MSNBC (only one station) has said that this forecast is not set in stone because of the slow movement. I wanted to email him and say, "NO DUH!"
If you wake up tomorrow morning and noticing it starting to get breezier, you'll know.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:39 PM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

it's SOUTH of Florida still. If it turns N or even NNW, it hits Florida. And it's also possible it COULD swing a bit NNE. History means something.

It's more likely that it will end up between Biloxi and the AL/FL line, though.. in which case, Pensacola is in for a rough time of it again. Someone kept mentioning that it keeps looking like Gulf Shores again... and I'm not sure I disagree.

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:39 PM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

edited to the most recent models runs on the site~danielw

those are the tighest i have seen any runs yet.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:39 PM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

I really dont think those are safe remarks for the people evacuating from La. and Ms. WishCasting this late in the game could effect peoples oppinions of this monster. Could very well put people in danger that look to this site for guidance anf info. Please folks read the disclaimer at the bottom after reading the remarks of amateur weather casters. Stick with the facts. Do what the local law enforcement tells you to do and keep you eyes on the NHC updates.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:42 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

"If you wake up tomorrow morning and noticing it starting to get breezier, you'll know."

That's what frightens me. It appears to be slowly but surely creeping toward the coast. People in the Panhandle MIGHT wake up and face a dreadful situation - in the path of a cat 4/5 hurricane and insufficient time to evacuate. I don't expect it to move that fast but I didn't expect it to turn east of the forecast track, either.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:42 PM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

boy , I agree. the trough that turned ivan was showing storms firing up ahead and running north well out into the gulf and the water vapor shows this occuring but well back into texas and not moving much ahead. Current track looks stable.

SirCane

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:43 PM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

I am really concerned about Katrina's size and current movement. Katrina looks a lot like Ivan did in size and she could be stronger! Ivan was scary enough. I am very concerned. With the size of the wind field on this thing, EVERYONE in that cone should be ready!! Time to be ready!!

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:44 PM

History

Since History was brought up. I relocated a link to the Hurricane Camille Bulletins.
I'm not saying Katrina could be similar to Camille.
It's just that Camille was forecast into NW FL and the warnings weren't extended into Biloxi until 6 AM the morning before she made landfall.
That's 16 hours Notice!

If a HURRICANE WATCH or WARNING is posted for the coast near you.
Please pay Very Close attention to all Advisories on Katrina. NHC track models are tightly cluster on the MS/LA area right now.
That could, but probably won't,change.

Here's the link to the Camille Bulletins. Notice the signatures at the bottoms of the Bulletins. Names like (Robert)Simpson, the late (John)Hope, and(Neil) Frank to name a few of the more prominant ones.
The Bulletins are in jpeg format.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/prelimat/atl1969/camille/

Steve H1

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:46 PM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

ralphfl, those are plots from 6z this morning. The 0z nam is a bit east now, making landfall on the AL/FL border. Like what dismaster said, stay with the NHC until they tell you differently. I also think we will have Lee before the weekends over. 90L is heading almost due west, and the Leewards and Puerto Rico may have to deal with this one in the coming days.....then possibly the SE US Coast since the western Atlantic ridge should build back with the depa.ting Katrina.

I have corrected Ralph's link to the 00Z runs.~danielw

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:46 PM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

Quote:

it's SOUTH of Florida still. If it turns N or even NNW, it hits Florida. And it's also possible it COULD swing a bit NNE. History means something.

It's more likely that it will end up between Biloxi and the AL/FL line, though.. in which case, Pensacola is in for a rough time of it again. Someone kept mentioning that it keeps looking like Gulf Shores again... and I'm not sure I disagree.

The other poster beat me to it.These models [http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png (SORRY WRONG LINK

are tight and no a little more then we do.To say it will more likely end up well east of where the experts AND the models say is not a good thing when you are talking about lives in LA who might say we are ok then get hit with a 150mph cane.

The reason i get so upset with people saying stuff like that is last year people on these sites said Its coming to tampa better evac now when charlie came.....Now when they posted that on here some people with no clue got scared and left a safe location in tampa for a spot in Orlando where they were killed.

Its about lives.

-- edit -- 2 folks lost their life in Orlando from Charlie and neither of the two were folks who evacuated from another area.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:47 PM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

EDIT: Ralph updated his link - so the first part no longer is needed.

Also, SSD is now clearly showing an eye on IR.

--RC

{ Oh yeah, and I sleep now! }

Rasvar

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:48 PM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

I don't consider his to comments to be wishcastiong of any kind. He is giving an informed opinion. Truthfully, I see the logic in his comments and have concerns about the warning areas not being large enough. Granted there is still a little bit of extra time for the pnahandle; but not that much. Anyone from LA to Florida should follow evacuation instructions from officials. I would consider his comments as more of a heads up to panhandle residents to not let their guard down. The storm did rid on the eastern edge of the guidence on the last few hours. i would rather over warn then underwarn in a situation like this.

EDIT- I am assuming you were refereing to VG's comments.

bn765

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:50 PM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

We now have an eye on Katrina....TWC just confirmed the pressure is down to 936 mb.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:52 PM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

And wave heights up to 36ft. WoW

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:53 PM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

Been waiting to see this for two days.

On the 3:15Z sat image (visual, ir, and water vapor), Katrina for the first time has come together and looks like a Cat 4, and also has the strong buzzsaw signature.

Even the image just before this one did not have this appearance. This image dates from 10:15 CDT so this is what the NHC was seeing at the time they put out discussion 19 that we had not seen yet.

Can one of the mods post this image?

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:57 PM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

NHC Recon Vortex Statement (my notes in italic):

000
URNT12 KNHC 280338
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/03:26:30Z
B. 24 deg 59 min N
086 deg 23 min W
C. 700 mb 2558 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 119 deg 114 kt
G. 023 deg 020 nm
H. 936 mb
I. 12 C/ 3052 m
J. 19 C/ 3048 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C30 this means a 30 NM circular eye
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1512A KATRINA OB 13
MAX FL WIND 114 KT NE QUAD 03:20:40 Z
LIGHTNING OBSERVED BRIEFLY IN NE EYEWALL

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:58 PM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

Guys and gals, she's exactly on the NHC forecast track. Rignt up the middle. Don't count some wobbles and ignore the others!

Look at the link....

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html

Right up the middle guys and gals. The graphic doesn't lie.

The track - thus far - is verifying.

BEWARE THIS STORM; you do not have to be "on the line" to get hurt or killed by it!

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:58 PM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

Also 1 saving grace with this storm which is just my opinion from reading what some of the discussions have been saying lead me to think this may reach its peak before it hits and i still say a cat 3 when it hits due to shear before landfall which is in the NHC forcast.....Just my gut feeling that this will fade out some before it hits.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:58 PM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

No wishcasting at all. Why would I wish a category 5 (potential) hurricane on myself!?!?

I am simply saying that it is too soon to declare anywhere safe. But to say that the models are accurate is, well, putting too much faith in computers. I'm a software engineer. The computer models are initiated with data that is 6 hours old at times, which is what leads them to sometimes flip-flop. Plus, well, no computer is perfect. Every storm I can think of has moved somewhat off of the forecast track.

Does that mean that people in N.O. should rela\x? HECK NO! It means that NO ONE should relax!!!

WhitherWeather

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 27 2005 11:59 PM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

I've believed since this early this afternoon that she was going to turn more northward. I don't know what the Google track is being plotted from, but extrapolating from its last four or five plot points, Katrina will have to make a decided westerly turn now to follow the models to N'awleans. Google's "projected" path is still going there, but it will require a significant "left" deviation from the last few path markers.

Whither Whether

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:00 AM

Re: New Orleans Prepares for Katrina

Thanks, I am in no way wish casting it my way. I like storms just not big ones. I was just watching the troff and thought at her current rate she may do something unexpected... not at all unheard of. I certianly hope the good people of the panhandle do not see another storm, there may no longer be a panhandle. Katrina seems to be a hard storm to forecast. I expected to have felt the effects on friday and today. I guess it will just be a wait and see thing.

Rasvar

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:00 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

I find the lightning comment interesting. Lightining in the eyewall is pretty rare. If I recall correctly, usually only in very strong storms and ones that are getting stronger. That is from memory, so I may be completely off. Anyone care to correct me?

(Really Not an Expert)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:01 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

Could someone give me an image on water vaper where it shows the trough to the north.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:04 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

Lightning in the eyewall is something I have heard about before - but you're right, it's not common except in EXTREMELY powerful (cat 4/5) storms.

Something to consider: Last night at this point in time, where was Katrina forecast to be headed? Not where it currently is headed, I don't believe. Forecasts change - that's why they are forecasts. No one is safe!

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:06 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

Good point. Doing some google searches on "lightning in eyewall" and I hit an interesting one:

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/resources/askjack/wahlight.htm

A quote in it from Peter Black who apparently used to (and may still) fly into hurricanes: "There was lightning reported in Camille's eyewall by the last Air Force recon crew that flew into it before landfall...."

Another discussion about lightning, including in eyewalls:
http://www.weatherwise.org/qr/qry.hurlit.html

SirCane

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:06 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

Here's a good water vapor image. You can see the trough digging down into Louisiana. Going to be interesting.

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:06 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

I honestly don't think that people from Florida WANT another storm here. I think what you are observing are possible scenarios that could effect PARTS of Florida. It is correct that at this time the current forecast track looks good, but as we all know hurricanes can and will deviate from current tracks. Katrina was supposed to hit near WPB; she ended up slamming Miami and the Keys, and I believe there was only one model that had that scenario. So there is some reasoning behind people saying it could shift more eastward. As of yet, that has not happened, it may not happen, but it COULD happen. Unfortunately, many of us have learned the hard way that hurricane forecasting is not an exact science and that they are very fickle. Those of us in Florida do not want anyone to go through what we've been through, nor do we want to go through it again ourselves.
Time will eventually tell the story of what exactly will happen with Katrina.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:06 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

Can anyone come up with lightning data. Images or anything? :?:

-- here is one link:
http://www.flamedia.com/lightning/light.htm

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:09 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

i have no problem with your opinion just like me i dont think it will make it to NO but as with you just IMO and also i think the winds will get sheared before landfall just my feeling.What got us was your remark of "more likely" will go to Florida panhandle.I think that was the part that got a few people is All.

Girlnascar

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:09 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

From personal experience with 3 canes last year, and seeing some of the same mistakes being stated this year, I don't think it is being stressed enough, the projected eye is only a point on a graph. Some have a real problem seeing beyond that dot. A hurricane is not just a dot/eye. And at the at last report from the hurricane center - the storm is 210 miles wide 45 miles eye and 160 tropical storm winds. Not to scare people, but people need to really realize this no matter where you are. Take care people listen to the Emergency Officials. Not only a wind field to deal with the storm surges alone need to be a major concern. Most of the hurricane damage claims I dealt with from Ivan and Dennis were the destruction from the SURGE. This is a powerful storm and will only bring larger and more powerful waves/surges. Remember when Dennis hit in July areas of Florida well east and well away from the dot/eye were flooded.
Take care everyone and Listen to the professionals NHC, police, fire rescue, emergency officials, and those in hear who been through this before.

Rasvar

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:09 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

"Guys and gals, she's exactly on the NHC forecast track. Rignt up the middle. Don't count some wobbles and ignore the others!! "

I wouldn't say exactly. It is well within guidence however. The six hour error appears to be roughly 30miles on the NE. That is not a siginificant error. though. This is a dangerous storm that no one should discount. If I were in NO, I would be getting out and heading to Houston.

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:11 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

If the trough continues to dip down further that would cause more of a turn, am I right on that? She is a big storm though. Just wondering.

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:14 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

"If the trough continues to dip down further that would cause more of a turn, am I right on that? She is a big storm though. Just wondering. "

Depending on the timing and how strong and that is not even a given.

As said the tip of the panhandle is still in the cone so they better watch out as much as NO but right now they are on the border but still in the cone.

And as was said if you are in the cone you should prepare as much as the ones right in the middle of it.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:16 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

your right. i am a Flood adjuster for N.F.I.P. I am handling flood claims from Hurricane dennis 45 miles east of Apalachacola. Dennis made landfall @ Navarre Beach 145 miles away. Surge will be the biggest threat.

SirCane

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:18 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

Right Ralph, especially when you consider the SIZE of Katrina. She is HUGE like Ivan so all points east on that projected track and probably beyond that will be affected somehow. This is a dangerous situation.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:21 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

If my research is correct, 936mb should equate to about 145-150mph.
Any comments?

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:22 AM

That is interesting...I guess it all depends on how fast, how strong and how far it digs down into LA to see what effect it has on Katrina in the long term...or short term. It also depends on if Katrina speeds up or not.

As for the lightning comments, I do remember hearing that about Ivan and maybe even Dennis.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:22 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

I made a post similar to this earlier today. I remain disgusted tonight with the LA officials (specifically those in N.O.). Less the 20 hours (give or take) before the roads out became almost too treacherous to drive and STILL no mandatory evacuation order for the city.

-- let's allow those in charge of public safety to make the best desisions for all concerned.

RedingtonBeachGuy

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:24 AM

Revisiting Forum Rules

To keep the forum a great source for information, please adhere to the following rules:

Before you post: Before posting, please ask yourself the following question: "Am I making a post which is informative, or interesting or adds to thoughtful discussion on any level? If is a reply, does it offer any significant advice or help contribute to the conversation in any fashion?" If you can answer "yes" to this, then please post. If you cannot, then refrain from posting.

Low Content Posts: Please do not make single line posts containing no content (ie, "Thanks!" "Great Post" "Cool!", "I agree", or something else completely void of meaning). Or general cheerleading, for example, if you think someone did a good job and have nothing else to add send them a PM, it works better for this. We appreciate the thanks, but otherwise posts like these just litter up the forums. Remember, CFHC is not a Chat Room - it is a Niche topic-oriented site, so please attempt to stay 'on topic' by placing your posts in the proper Forum. Main page articles are usually focused on one particular topic, the other forums are open to use as well and are moderated less strictly.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:24 AM

Katrina

Three things!
P. AF300 1512A KATRINA OB 13
MAX FL WIND 114 KT NE QUAD 03:20:40 Z
LIGHTNING OBSERVED BRIEFLY IN NE EYEWALL

Lightning is usually a sign of a storm intensifying. As reflected by the current pressure and it's drop.

Margie used the "Buzzsaw" word that's the worst thing you want to see or hear before a landfall. It usually signifies a storm that will have it's name retired.
Gilbert, Mitch to name a few. Do a Goggle Image search for those two storms and see the similarity in the appearance of the 'saw'.

If there are watches and warnings posted close to you. I'll say 60 miles of where you are. Please make sure that you have a plan ready for daylight.
This storm may change it's course before landfall. I don't want Anyone to be caught off guard!
Secure your home and family and get the heck out of Dodge. I would rather leave Dodge than have to dodge trees, flying debris and flood waters.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:25 AM

Pressure & Wind Speeds

Sometimes the pressures may drop and it takes the winds some time to catch up with it. Now that we have a nice eye formed, I think the winds will begin to reflect the pressure drops in the next couple of hours. I would not be surprised to see them up at the 1:00am advisory. Hope that helps.

BabyCat

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:25 AM

Re: History

Fascinating archive.
thanks for posting it.
Can't image hearing that the storm heading toward you has 160mph winds and is expected to intensify.
190 mph at Kessler, unbelievable.
Grew up hearing stories from survivors, very interesting seeing the official advisories.

HanKFranK

(User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:26 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

first, in response to someone asking if the trough goes further down would it turn the storm more:
if the trough digs more, it would imply more amplified ridging upstream and a further west track. the trough would have to slip by to the north and erode the northwest side of the ridge to do that.. with a strong hurricane like katrina on the ridge periphery pumping the ridge and trying to force itself northward, i doubt you'll see the track shift much to the right.
the symmetry on katrina is excellent, but when you look at the inner core it's still kind of uneven. there's finally an eye trying to redefine itself on satellite, but the inner core bands are still uneven.. there isn't that circular eye and solid convective ring that is indicative of a strong four/five. i'm not certain that katrina will develop that traditional structure, since thus far it's kept a sloppy inner core even with lessening, weak shear and a barometric pressure more often associated with a category 4.
invest 90L is moving faster and on a lower trajectory than i'd anticipated. it will be to the islands in three days if it keeps a similar pace and track... the upper air environment currently involves some weak easterly shear.. but that should lessen as it gets further west. that's gonna be lee. 97L seems to have given up on developing (shear has pretty much decoupled the low and the vorticity perturbation aloft driving that convective burst coincident with the system's track).
irwin is looking rather pathetic in the eastpac... and may be the last in the burst they've had over there for a while. i'm not sure but the atlantic may start revving down for a while... will look into this when a major hurricane isn't threatening NO/biloxi anymore.
HF 0426z28august

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:34 AM

Attachment

Buzzsaw

Here is the "buzzsaw" image refered to by Margie.
The 'teeth' are beginning to show.

Click on the attachment. above.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:40 AM

Re: Buzzsaw

Are there more recon flights going out tonight? Are they going out on a certain schedule?

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:43 AM

Re: Buzzsaw

AF300 is flying the storm right now. I'll have to check the POD for the next flight.

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:46 AM

Re: Buzzsaw

Ok going to bed but before i go i wanted to see 1 last Sat loop and the Noaa site still is showing the 03:45 loop anyone have a newer loop?

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:49 AM

Re: Buzzsaw

Quote:

Are there more recon flights going out tonight? Are they going out on a certain schedule?

Recon every three hours now.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:50 AM

Recon and Satellites

Satellites are in the nightly eclipse for the next few hours. I'm not sure when they come back up.
Around 0800Z 4 AM EDT would be a good guess.

FLIGHT FOUR
A. 28/1200Z
B. NOAA9 1612A KATRINA High Altitude Surveillance Flight
C. 28/0600Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT FIVE
A. 28/0900,1200,1500Z
B. AFXXX 1712A KATRINA
C. 28/0630Z takeoff scheduled for 1 hour and 40 minutes from now.
D. 26.9N 85.7W
E. 28/0800Z TO 28/1530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:53 AM

Re: Buzzsaw

Listening to TWC talking to the NOLA weather station. They are saying that the 1 am advisory will probably have an increase in windspeed to 125 to 130 mph. Saying the storm is symetrical, the eye is now showing, and is actually pulling in storm from Texas into it. Interesting.

Kimmie

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:53 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

The forecasting today has been superb. About as good as you can get. Nearly all of the models are in alignment and the NHC has been consistent in its track for about 24 hours. This is about as good as you can hope for 3 days out. My hat goes off to the forecasters. History will look kindly on the forecasting, but the decision to not order a mandatory evacuation... who knows. The shoes of an emergency manager are certainly difficult ones to fill. We shall see.

Anyways, being that the people of the Gulf Coast are facing a fearsome challenge, perhaps in the next day or so, the users of CFHC can spend a moment in prayer to the deity of their choosing, as many will need this helping hand. I am sure we will be amazed in the wake of the storm, wherever it hits, to hear of the miraculous tales that emerge and to see people banding together.

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:55 AM

Re: Recon and Satellites

"Satellites are in the nightly eclipse for the next few hours. I'm not sure when they come back up.
Around 0800Z 4 AM EDT would be a good guess.

FLIGHT FOUR
A. 28/1200Z
B. NOAA9 1612A KATRINA High Altitude Surveillance Flight
C. 28/0600Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT
FLIGHT FIVE
A. 28/0900,1200,1500Z
B. AFXXX 1712A KATRINA
C. 28/0630Z takeoff scheduled for 1 hour and 40 minutes from now.
D. 26.9N 85.7W
E. 28/0800Z TO 28/1530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT "

Ok thanks for the info never paid att to it before guess ill see them when i get up.Hope when i wake up we dont have a cat 4 storm ill pray the people in N.O get spared since they don't want to evac it lets hope and pray it won't be too late or it moves elsewhere.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:57 AM

Water Temps

here's the best estimation I could find on what the Water Temps are. the more recent shots are too covered by clouds.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:58 AM

Re: Buzzsaw

Just checking in here. It's pretty natural and even subconcious to statecast or citycast from time to time. Because of our various self-interests, we tend to focus on things that might indicate danger to us. It's probably a natural response. No, I didn't stay at a Holiday Inn *interruption*

That was a trip. All of the sudden this super heavy rainfall just passed through and I had to run back to my deck to get the carpet I had drying in the sun and breeze after my dog hurled on it this morning. Wonder if that was just an outter fringe element or part of the trof? Guess I should have been watching radar! Okay, I did. It came from the ENE so that's a rotating element. Damn, and the carpet was almost dry.*

Back to the post...

Okay so here I am sitting here wondering what I'm going to do. On the one hand, do I want to evacuate and miss the opportunity of a lifetime or do I want to play it safe? My thinking all along has been that the storm would be east of here. That needs to be caveated by the fact that I'd still see some tropical storm winds if Katrina went into Alabama. We had them on the lake sustained for 3 hours+ with Dennis out on Lake Pontchartrain and also with Opal* (*due to pressure gradient stuff with Opal). As mentioned earlier, I got 2 of my 3 kids out and up to Alexandria with my sister. My wayward middle child was out playing with his friends so he'll be heading up there tomorrow with my wife after she gets home from work and then also gets some sleep. I'm leaning about 70/30 against evacuating desipte the evidence to the contrary. I haven't seen true hurricane conditions since I was 1 year old in Betsy, so the passions of the heartstrings are being tugged against concious sanity that says if you don't get the hell out, YOU'RE GONNA DIE!

I've been watching the main trof since it was an upper low in Saskatchewan (or however you spell it). What I didn't count on was a south Atlantic high building in from the east. I knew there were two ridges of high pressure - 1) the upper high that had been spinning over the GC states for the last few days and the other one out there, and we knew that a trof would help amplify a weakness between the two ridges. But this is August, not October. It's not like a cold front is being dragged down to kick anything up northeast of me. It's quite the contrary situation (as amply explained by HankFrank above).

So for tonight, it's another night of chainsmoking and beer. I slept all of 2 hours last night (5ish to 7) and woke up realizing I had to evacuate because the condo/house/apt. I was living in had too many windows* and no place to hide (which is eerily similar to my own house).

I've got a dilemna on my hands for tomorrow. I'm thinking if the track shunts a bit west or stays roughly where it is and if Katrina is a Cat 4 with no letup in sight and the warmest waters in the Atlantic Basin fueling the fire, I'm going to go. But if she's gonna be heading farther east, I'm probably going to stay.

One last tidbit - funny thing about the north and east scenarios (ones that I've been latched onto since Wed. morning). Latest plot from Old Sailor's verification chart shows Katrina is currently south and west of the forecast track. Sat tracking before I started this post showed a decided WNW motion. No, that's not NW, it's WNW. Wobbles will turn into trends which will turn into parabolic curves. Should Katrina cross or be approaching 88 by tomorrow afternoon, the city pays or possibly is doomed. If she's already heading NNW in the 86th parallel (or whatever they call Longitudes), then people in Alabama will probably be forgetting about Ivan.

I'm looking for at least tropical storm conditions between Grand Isle/Golden Meadow/Port Fourchon and Seaside, FL. Somewhere in that swath will be a 70 or 80 mile stretch of a combination of gusts > hurricane force and sustained hurricane winds. And nestled within that zone will be a life-altering event for thousands of people.

Good luck to everyone.

Steve

Hawkeyewx

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Aug 28 2005 12:59 AM

Re: Recon and Satellites

The satellite blackout period, and I'm assuming it is the same length every night, goes from 0400 UTC to 0600 UTC. I know from last night there was at least a 0615 satellite image, if not an 0600 image.

belleami

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:02 AM

Re: Wave Heights

Went through the huge surge from Dennis here, and I have been wondering, if this is a Cat 4 coming in, any idea of what the wave height, storm surge might be? Is there a way to find that?

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:04 AM

Re: Buzzsaw

Mayor of NO will be issuing a mandatory evacuation beginning in the morning. Head of NHC personally just called him and told him that it was looking bad for NO and to get everybody out. Resources are on the way to the area now.

Kimmie

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:12 AM

NOLA

I may be out of line here.
It's about time!! I can't believe they have waited so long!
With all of the technology we have and they are just kind of sitting there. Waiting on the turn that may not ever happen.
Where's an EXTROP?
4 out of 7 model tracks put New Orleans in the NE Quadrant. Do they know something I don't.

Steve I wish you the best. But I would seriously consider leaving for Alex with the wife and kids.
Metarie floods pretty bad sometimes. Especially around Moisant Airport.

edit: I see that the MS Gulf Coast Counties are in the same boat with New Orleans.
Voluntary evacuations of low lying areas and mobile homes. I think that will change drastically in the morning!

Brad in Miami

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:18 AM

Katrina in Miami

Hi everyone. Sorry if this post is in the wrong forum or repetitive of what others have posted - I just got power, and hence internet, for the first time in a little more than 2 days so I haven't kept up to speed with what's been posted.

I realize the second landfall of Katrina is a much more important issue, but if anyone hasn't gotten firsthand information re: the first landfall, my house was a few to ten miles SE of the eye, just south of South Miami, and after driving around to survey damage today I see that I was pretty much in, or close to, the worst swath damage-wise. Thursday was actually a very nice, balmy day, until I lost power at around 530, then things went downhill quickly. Had pretty typical strong TS to CAT 1 conditions for 5 or 6 hours - probably sustained winds around 70-75 mph, gusts into the 80's or low 90's - then another 3-6 hours of moderate TS conditions (and intermittent TS-strength squalls after that). Lots of trees, signs, portions of fences down; very little structural damage - shingles off here and there, and some problems caused by falling trees, but not structural damage caused purely by the wind, as opposed to by impacts from objects carried by the wind. Plenty of impassable roads, and very few businesses & homes in the area had power this afternoon. (Some odd experiences with trying to shop: e.g., CVS letting in 1 customer at a time; giving me a cart, a light, and a pen to write down the prices of things I picked out; wandering through the dark store alone, with 4 employees up front and a line of people outside waiting for me to finish my trek through the store; only cash transactions everywhere, with calculators and wads of bills - no change provided - the norm.) Hot as anything, of course, although we (unfortunately) benefited from Katrina's expansion today with a reprieve from from the heat because of the re-arrival of her outer clouds/bands this evening.

Anyway, power is back in my neighborhood, and I believe FPL (with the much-appreciated help of out-of-state companies, including many employees from N.C.) is aiming to restore 90% of Miami-Dade residents' power by Tuesday and 100% by Friday.

What amazed me the most about this storm was how most of the local mets downplayed it even into Thursday evening, despite the fact we were very much within the hurricane warning area (I heard news quotes such as "This is a tropical storm and we get plenty of those in South Florida, so there's no need to prepare for this one," and "This isn't going to be more than a minor rain event for us" as late as Thursday afternoon), how shocked many residents seem to be by the storm we got (which was almost exactly the stoorm that was predicted, or at least the one we were told we had a decent chance of getting; even the NWS forecast for our area on Thursday and Friday predicted up to 85 mph winds, which was close); and how many locals claim this was stronger than a CAT 1 when it passed through S. Fla. (Despite all the downed trees and power lines, the minimal structural damage certainly tells the story of a minimal CAT 1.)

For me, it's yet another lesson that even in Miami, where we are no strangers to tropical systems, no matter how many times we go through this drill, no matter how well the NHC forecasts a storm and how explicit the NHC's warnings are, and no matter how recently we seem to have experienced similar "suprises" that really were right in line with the NHC's forecasts (e.g., Irene 1999), for some reason the message does not make it to, or sufficiently effect, a large portion of the public. I suppose this is a problem the NHC continually deals with. Is it a problem of translation when interpreted through local mets? People's need to have concrete answers (will it hit or not?) when no such answers can be given?

Whatever factors are going into those issues, nobody seems to have been able to figure them out, least of all me.

Anyway, after 2 sweaty, uncomfortable days, my wife, baby, and I are immensely enjoying the a/c.

I wish everyone in Katrina's path luck. We got just a taste, and I hope you all evacuate so you don't experience the real deal.

-Brad

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:24 AM

Re: Wave Heights

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 15 TO 20 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 25 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE
CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/272350.shtml

(Meteorologist)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:26 AM

Re: Buzzsaw

Steve, I've gotta suggest that you get out of there tomorrow with the others. This thing may hook back a little to the right at landfall, as some of these storms tend to do, but it may likely go a bit further west initially than predicted as well. It's already past 86W and well on its way to 87W...this thing means business and I know you'd rather stick around, but there will be other storms to ride through down the line that won't pose the danger that this one does and the thrill of going through something like this would seriously (and quickly) be outweighed by the repercussions to come shortly thereafter. Things look more ominous than when we talked earlier and I've really gotta suggest that you strongly consider leaving tomorrow.
-Clark

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:27 AM

NHC calls Mayor of New Orleans

NHC called the Mayor of New Orleans and advised him if at all possible to issue a Mandatory evacuation for all residents of New Orleans.
This is the big storm that no one ever wanted to see hit New Orleans.

It's sometimes fun to track hurricanes. This one is not fun.

Please, everyone along the gulf coast, take proper preparations and stay safe.

God Speed to all in harms way.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:33 AM

Re: NHC calls Mayor of New Orleans

URNT12 KNHC 280525
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/05:11:20Z
B. 25 deg 07 min N
086 deg 39 min W
C. 700 mb 2530 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 225 deg 122 kt
G. 140 deg 019 nm
H. EXTRAP 935 mb
I. 10 C/ 3053 m
J. 19 C/ 3047 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E12/38/32
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 1512A KATRINA OB 16
MAX FL WIND 122 KT SE QUAD 05:05:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
MAX FL TEMP 20C 310/9NM
LIGHTNING OBSERVED IN ONE OF THE OUTER BANDS, BUT NOT IN SE EYEWALL

ERC is over and now looks like we should have a cat 4 soon.....last few shots on sat had an eye!

WeatherNut

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:35 AM

Re: Buzzsaw

I just read Clarks blog and it gave me a sick feeling in the pit of my stomach. Steve get out while you can. I'd hate to think that someone who posted here died in a hurricane that we all so carefully tracked. I also think that your family would miss you terribly. I think there is going to be tremendous loss of life with this storm...possibly 100s or 1000s. People just dont realize what is coming. This could truly be the NO "perfect storm". I dont know how many have left at this point but I dont think they will be able to get everyone out of NO...not at this late stage...got that sick feeling again

Sportsfreak1989s

(Registered User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:43 AM

Re: NOLA

In my opinion I think it MIGHT make one last wobble to the west then start it's "curve" that it is SUPPOSE to make. I honestly would hate for this thing to hit N.O. because the impact it would have on everyone living there and most likely everyone in the south if not the US. (to bad this thing just couldn't go "poof" and be gone)

I hope most people in N.O. do not ignore the issued warning that they have been given. I pray that everyone who is within 200 miles of this Monster (which is me) can come back home and still have a home to live in and none of their possessions are destroyed. Honestly we all know that somewhere in this storm's "humble" path there will most likely be some type of destruction, unfortunately. Hopefully the type of destruction that won't happen is the loss of life

.

There was one nagging question I do have though, if you could answer for me.... Could Katrina still make landfall near Intracoastal City? I know there is a chance but actually, how big is this chance? There is that slight urge of being worried still in the back of my mind right now and I must know what everyone else thinks about this possibility. Whats ya'lls opinions on this?

Thanks to all, and all my prayers go out to everyone that might be affected by this "beautiful" Storm.

-Andy.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:43 AM

Re: Buzzsaw

To quote Hank's saying. "What Clark said".

I can't think of the NHC Director calling me and telling me to evacuate my City. Steve, that call kind of filters down to you. Please get out. And that goes for anyone in the Warning area. Do what you have to tonight. So you can leave at first light.

I-10, I-59 and I-55 will be crowded to say the least. I think this was expected, as I saw Barricades in place along the Interstate on my way to work tonight. I'm 90 miles North of Gulfport and 150 North of New Orleans.
Do the math with 250,000 vehicles and see how far they stretch. At 25 ft per vehicle. That's 1184 miles of road. I'll let you finish the rest.

Like I said earlier, and a few times last year. If you are near an area under a HURRICANE WARNING. Do not wait for the order to become mandatory!

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:44 AM

Re: NOLA

nhc is fixing to issure a spc. adv....Katrina is a CAT4 145mph....per TWC

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:44 AM

Re: Buzzsaw

Just heard winds at now at 145 mph

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:46 AM

Re: Buzzsaw

HURRICANE KATRINA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1240 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...SHORTLY AFTER 1215 AM CDT... 0515Z... AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT REPORTED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE KATRINA
HAD INCREASED TO NEAR 145 MPH... CATEGORY FOUR ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY IN A
SPECIAL ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED AT APPROXIMATELY 1 AM CDT...0600Z.
THE SPECIAL PUBLIC ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE INTERMEDIATE
PUBLIC ADVISORY PREVIOUSLY SCHEDULED FOR THAT TIME.

FORECASTER KNABB

(Meteorologist)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:47 AM

Re: NOLA

Indeed, the NHC just issued a special statement saying the winds are now to 145mph. The winds have finally caught up to the storm's pressure. This intensifies the danger to the coastline.

I don't put out phrases like this lightly, but I need to emphasize it right now:

IF YOU ARE IN SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA OR ALONG THE COAST IN S. MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING AND ARE PLANNING ON STAYING OR DEBATING WHETHER OR NOT TO LEAVE, GET OUT NOW.

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:48 AM

Re: Buzzsaw

Where do you live steve in LA? how close is it to the coast? Do you have alot of people that might loot your house in the neighboorhood or are you kinda isolated? Anyways if your close to the water then I would go. If not then I might stay cause even if my house is/not destroyed,,whatever is left might be looted...maybe take valuble info you need and $$$ info. Then you can stay at the Holiday Inn and ask if the Pool would be open? LOL I Would!!! Anyways I would love to fly up there but work says I cant. I probably should of went to Miami and stayed with a friend but again WORK!!!
Anyways be safe like all should along the gulf coast.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:50 AM

Re: NOLA

well are friends find a cat 4 and now are headed home.....

URNT11 KNHC 280547
97779 05434 10264 88109 30500 06058 10108 /3056
RMK AF300 1512A KATRINA OB 17
LAST REPORT

next plane arrives in a few hrs.

ShanaTX

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:50 AM

Re: Buzzsaw

At this point you have to remember - stuff can be replaced, people can't.

Get out. Please.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:51 AM

Re: NOLA

Quote:

edit: I see that the MS Gulf Coast Counties are ...Voluntary evacuations of low lying areas and mobile homes. I think that will change drastically in the morning!

Actually, perhaps not, and I have made a couple posts about this the past day. You know I have a brother who works in Jackson Cty law enforcement. For some reason they don't even enforce mandatory evac and I am not sure of the reason. Time after time officials drag their feet as far as evac and if you hear from Kissy on the board tomorrow she will tell you the same thing, that they never received notice to evac until too late, etc, just as with Dennis. And by the time they are told to leave, no hotel rooms, no gasoline, roads starting to flood, etc.

I know there are many many people in the county there who will never evac, period; for one, another one of my brothers that I don't speak to very often but who told me bluntly so on the phone. Why? I have no clue.

There is a terrific online web site for all 3 MS coastal counties of Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson along with very detailed flood zone maps labeled by Cat number. There were many SLOSH studies done to create these maps. At some point along the line many smart people put in a lot of time to identify what they could to help evac.

Now why the mobilization part fails I don't know.

This is why whenever a storm heads to the N GOM I go on about these things and it just gives me fits.

Now NO knew about the required 72 hours minimum for evac, and you are right the models clustered there two days ago. I guess it is the mentality that unless it is just parked right outside Lake Ponchatrain they really don't believe it is there, I don't know. If it is true that NHC personnally made a call to the mayor of NO maybe it is because they were having fits too wondering when the sam hill everyone was going to evac.

Playing devil's advocate for a moment, consider that since the severe damage swath is so small and the cone of error so wide, many people feel that the odds are against them getting the direct hit.

Do you know that when Dennis hit FL, that many people who evac from Jackson Cty returned to find their homes looted. The reason why was that because of the NO evac plan, all the Jackson Cty folks who were only told to evac the last minute had to drive even as far as TX or TN to find a hotel room. It took them awhile to get back and the curfew was lifted maybe a day or two early, and enough people were still gone that crooks had a field day looting unoccupied homes. I know that because my brother told me just how many robberies he had to take care of the next couple days after Dennis (it was under 100, but way up in the double digits). So nobody wants to leave their home knowing that it could be looted before they could come back.

People would evac more readily if there was a safe place a couple of hours away, where they could get home fairly quickly afterwards, after the roads had been cleared.

Now people can't even be sure if they get a little ways out of the county on these back roads, spending hours stuck in traffic jams (it took on average six hours to leave Jackson Cty for Ivan to get just as far as places like Hattiesburg or Jackson), because there are no freeways, that they'll be able to get gas and keep on going. Chances are they could be stuck in their car out in the open, not too far away, where there is danger from winds once the storm has struck.

Finally, a lot of these people don't have a lot of money. Evacuating costs them a lot: food, gas (more, because of the slow traffic), hotel.

The population is so large that it seems there is no reasonable solution to this evac issue.

CaneTrackerInSoFl

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:51 AM

Re: NOLA

Since its a Cat 4 now, does the NHC up the intensity forecast?

I was telling my family all evening, that once this eyewall replacement cycle is over, and the winds catch up to the pressure, this thing is going to become a monster.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:53 AM

Oh NO!!

25.2N 086.5W 137 kts at flight level...158mph x 0.91equals surface speed of 143.4mph.
Rounds to 145mph!!!

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:57 AM

Re: Oh NO!!

Steve.. and others.... In light of the:
1) new windspeed update... 145...
2) tight model clusterings
3) panic that's going to result when people catch up in the AM
4) well-defined storm on sat
5) recommendations of everyone....

I'm thinking I am leaving in the next hour... not tomorrrow.... I still see this coming east of us... but, even a little east will still be bad.... and what if it doesn't turn.... shreveport, here I come....

WeatherNut

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 28 2005 01:59 AM

Re: Oh NO!!

I think that might be a good idea...if you have the energy to leave now...DO! There is going to be panic at first light no doubt about it

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:02 AM

Re: Oh NO!!

Terra, Godspeed, be careful out there.

Kimmie

(Meteorologist)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:03 AM

Re: Oh NO!!

People and the anchor on 870am are suggesting routes for people to use to get out of the area, whether New Orleans or further west/east, and really providing a good service to those who need it. This is the time to get out -- do not wait for first light, take advantage of the time now to get out of town. A mandatory evacuation may be issued for the entire city of New Orleans at first light, the first in that city's history. Please, take what you can and head out as soon as possible.

JustMe

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:07 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

is there any way that this storm can turn back east?

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:07 AM

Re: Oh NO!!

anyone got the link to models from the university web site thats been posted a few times? had a bunch of models on it. i lost the link.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:07 AM

Re: Oh NO!!

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200512.marine.html

Forecast valid 29/1200z 29.0n 89.8w
Max wind 130 kt...gusts 160 kt.
64 kt... 60ne 45se 45sw 45nw.
50 kt... 80ne 80se 65sw 80nw.
34 kt...140ne 100se 100sw 140nw.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:10 AM

Re: Oh NO!!

Wife's at work until 7 or 8 am. We're stuck until later in the day because she's going to have to sleep and we ain't sitting in hours and hours of traffic. I guess I'm starting to consider ramifications a little more as you guys have some convincing arguments.

scotts,

I live in kind of an exclusive section of Metaire called Old Metairie which is a mix of up to multi-million dollar homes, really old 900sf homes and older homes like mine (1953) that have been added onto. We're in an isolated subdivision but I think most of the criminals know where the pickins' are. I don't have anything but all those doctors and lawyers that live in this neighborhood kind of lay out the welcome matt for everyone else should looting take place. Funny thing is, my house (assuming viability of the city) would be worth far more demolished than standing due to the high land value ratios for the old houses (mine's probably 65% land). I could build something twice as nice for the proceeds (not that I want all my stuff to get destroyed).

If at all possible, I'm going to try to crash before 3am so I can wake up early enough to get all the crap done that I put off today.

I'll check back a few more times before bed.

Steve

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:11 AM

Re: Oh NO!!

Thanks Clark. Shana in TX had PM'd me about WWL.
I listen to them Everytime there is a Storm in the Gulf.

870 on the AM Radio Dial.

And the TV station link. They may be in Simulcast.
http://www.wwltv.com/

By the way. This will hint on my age. But I listened to them in 1965 when Betsy was bearing down on New Orleans. You Just can't beat WWL AM. For Storm Coverage!!

KATFIVE

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:12 AM

Re: Oh NO!!

Hello folks,
Well we've been waiting for this storm to organize and spin up to an intensity commensurate with the pressures we've been seeing. Even so, I have to say I'm a bit shocked how fast this thing has jumped into cat 4 status. So just to open up the discussion for you weather geeks: what does the intensity situation look like from here forward? I know the water is extremely warm, low shear etc. But does anyone have some insights into what we will see vis a vis intensity as the projected path seems to be bad no matter what jogs this storm might take prior to landfall.

(Meteorologist)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:13 AM

Re: Oh NO!!

Storm Hunter: try http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png for the early-cycle guidance and http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/late1.png for the late-cycle guidance.

Bev

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:17 AM

Re: Hurricane Warning Up Morgan City, LA to FL/Alabama Border

"The reason i get so upset with people saying stuff like that is last year people on these sites said Its coming to tampa better evac now when charlie came.....Now when they posted that on here some people with no clue got scared and left a safe location in tampa for a spot in Orlando where they were killed.

-- edit -- 2 folks lost their life in Orlando from Charlie and neither of the two were folks who evacuated from another area."

I agree with the original poster's intent if not complete accuracy. I obeyed a mandatory evacuation order from coastal anna maria island for Charley. I boarded up my home and headed inland to Arcadia, well above sea level and not predicted to be within the hurricane wind swath.

Several hours later I found myself hiding under the staircase of my parents' home and praying very loudly. Charley changed direction at the crucial last hours and we suffered hours of terror I would never wish on another human being.

As the eye of Category 4 Charley passed within a mile of us, the floors of the thankfully well-built old home rose and fell with the gusts. My stomach would flip-flop as the floor literally breathed below us. The closet doors upstairs began slamming open and closed and continued without ceasing. One magnolia and 7 huge old oaks crashed down around the house, with one large limb peeling a large section of roof open like a sardine can.

Water poured down the hall and pooled around us as we held cushions, mattresses, and anything we could find over our heads. Judging by the noise we agreed we had lost the entire second story of the home.

Debris flew in all directions and continually slammed the walls near us. We sat in the big old home in a huge puddle of water and prayed for deliverance from the monster storm. It eventually grew so loud, we couldn't even hear each other, only the slamming of objects into the home, the scream of the wind, the rattling of windows, the crashing of trees and the odd wailing sound of pine floors as the wind lifts them ever so slightly before letting them settle again.

We were delivered, but the world outside the walls of that home was not the same as the one we had left to take refuge from the storm and won't be for many years to come. Power was not restored in many areas for six weeks. The entire area remains a sea of blue tarps on roofs and all trees were stripped of their leaves and limbs. Many homes and businesses collapsed entirely and the roof over the only open shelter also blew away. The church where I was married was demolished. Our barn was blown 1/4 mile away.

I can't beging to describe, although I've tried, the devestation or the fear, or sorrow that comes after experiencing such an event.

The lesson here isn't to ignore warnings. But rather, to think for yourself and take precautions even after you have heeded warnings because a pin-point simply isn't possible with a hurricane.

We returned to our home on the coast after the hurricane to find that not one old palm frond had been disturbed in our absence. And our windows remained safely boarded. The contrast was shocking and remains so in my mind.

My prayers and thoughts are sincerely with all of those who are facing this storm. Think carefully and take every precaution to protect yourself and your family. And pray.

-Bev

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:19 AM

Re: Oh NO!!

does anyone have current intensity forecasts from SHIPS, GFDL and FSU Superensemble?
last I saw SHIPS was showing 149/150mph.
thanks!

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:21 AM

Re: Oh NO!!

if you live in this area (place you posted)............LEAVE......don't wait!!!! NO may never look the same again for awhile....... she's already 24hrs ahead of strength......forecasted to be a Cat 4 sunday..... most likely a few more ERC today and she could be a CAT 5 later on .... ALOT OF WATER is headed for the northern GOM coast.....just like IVAN did last year.... pretty sure now we will here the media reference this to Ivan later today....and people will PANIC....especially in NO!

heynow

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:22 AM

Route

I usually wouldn't do this on this forum (been a registered user for almost a year) BUT...my brother is leaving NO right now (1:19 am cst). Can't find any info if he should take I-10 or HWY90. Does anyone know if 90 is backed up and I-10 is a better route?

(Meteorologist)

Sun Aug 28 2005 02:23 AM

New Thread

Given the impact of the storm and the latest information, I'm going to go ahead and post a new thread. We'll pick up the discussion there. Thanks everyone....