MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 08:48 PM |
Katrina Moves North-northwest, Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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3:AM EDT (2AM CDT) Update
Satellite shows a weakness in the western part of the storm, perhaps some dry air intrusion, this is good news as it gives the chance for the storm to weaken if this spot makes it to the core, at best keep it from regaining category 5 strength before the center makes landfall.
11:00 PM EDT (10PM CDT) Update
Katrina remains a Category 5 storm, the National Hurricane center is saying that the storm may be starting to go through an eyewall replacement cycle, which may weaken the storm in the short term, but spread out the winds further. Recon recently reported that the pressure is up to 908mb, continuing the slow weakening trend from earlier today.
If it has time to finish this before landfall, it could restrengthen again. It is still a category 5 storm, the pressure is still one of the lowest ever recorded in the Atlantic Basin. So this is all relative, either way it's still making its way to New Orleans as a Category 5 hurricane.
Let us hope and pray it does not have time to finish eyewall replacement before landfall.
10:30p Update
Hurricane Katrina appears to be entering an eyewall replacement cycle this evening, suggested by recon data and radar imagery and strongly implied by microwave imager data. This could result in temporary fluctuations in intensity over the course of the next few hours with some weakening possible as it makes landfall overnight and into the early morning hours near the mouth of the Mississippi River. Conditions continue to go downhill along the coast, with a strong threat for tornadoes in the outer feeder bands extending from New Orleans to Pensacola.
A full update is forthcoming from the NHC in the 11p package.
Original Update
Tropical Depression Thirteen has formed in the Central Atlantic. It is most likely going out to sea.
Hurricane Katrina is the number one concern right now as it moves toward New Orleans. The center is starting to be seen on long range radar, so let the nail biting nowcasting style tracking begin.
The official track has shifted to the left slightly, giving New Orleans a bit more concern than the last few forecasts. Indeed, the GFDL model has shifted slightly west as well. At this point exact landfall is moot. It will be devestating to wherever it crosses. The exact point of landfall matters greatly for flooding. With this track, overflow into the south shore of the lake area is very likely.
The storm is down to a pressure of 902mb, making it the fourth strongest storm recorded in the Atlantic (by Pressure) with 165MPH winds, the winds have relaxed a bit, but will likely fluctuate up and down.
More to come as time passes.
Looking to help folks in the area, check here to see and offer suggestions.
(We and Skeetobite are looking for feedback on maps, let us know here)
For discussion on TD#13 go to this link.
Repost of Clark's Blog since it is most applicable now:
What can you expect if you are in the following locations from Hurricane Katrina?
o Southeast Louisiana, including Lake Ponchatrain and New Orleans:
This is the expected landfall region as of this time. The storm is likely to reach the shore of the state as an intense category 5 hurricane with winds anywhere from 160-185mph. Coastal flooding along the coast due to storm surge is going to be a major problem anywhere to the east of where the center of the storm makes landfall and along all sides of the shore of Lake Ponchatrain. The storm will not lose much, if any, intensity between the coast and the first 50-60mi inland due to the nature of the land.
On the projected path, category 5 strength winds will be felt in the city of New Orleans itself; this is akin to an F3 tornado over a span of 25-50 miles. Widespread destruction of a catastrophic nature is quite possible as the storm passes across the city; gusts over 200mph -- in the F4 tornado range -- could result in structural failure to many of the buildings within the city. Flooding will only exacerbate the problem as the storm passes. Many roads will be impassable for weeks, if not months, and services to many parts of the city may be out for a similar length of time.
Simply put, if you are in this area, you needed to get out a long time ago. Now is too late. It is time to head to the shelter of last resort, the Louisiana Superdome, and ride out the storm the best you can.
o Central Louisiana, including Baton Rouge and Lafayette:
You will likely be on the west side of the storm but still within the region of hurricane-force winds with this storm. Precautions should be taken to ensure that potentially hazardous objects (debris) are removed from outside and those in weak structures are evacuated to a shelter. Isolated tornadoes are possible with flooding in low-lying areas due to locally heavy rain a threat as well.
o Southern Mississippi & Alabama Coastlines, including Pascagoula, Biloxi, and Mobile:
The storm will likely pass near or just east of the mouth of the Pearl River at landfall. This places all of the coastal cities of Mississippi near the center in the right-front quadrant of the storm. Storm surge, particularly into Mobile Bay and near Pascagoula (where there are fewer obstructions from the Louisiana coastline) is going to be a major concern. Isolated tornadoes and winds to hurricane-force are likely across this region, with flooding as the storm moves inland becoming a bigger concern due to trailing feeder bands setting up to the east of the storm.
o Inland Southern & Central Mississippi, including Hattiesburg:
Similar impacts will be felt here as they will to the west, as noted in the forecast for the central Louisiana area. The threat for tornadoes and heavy rain is likely a bit higher in this area, however.
o Inland Southern & Central Alabama, including areas up to Birmingham:
Locally heavy rains, isolated tornadoes, and gusty winds are the primary threats from this storm Monday into Tuesday morning as the storm continues to move inland.
o Coastal Florida to Destin/Panama City and Apalachee Bay:
This storm is stronger but much further west than Dennis made landfall just one month ago. Despite this, high tides Sunday into Monday may bring localized coastal flooding to areas damaged by previous hurricanes. Rain of 3-6" may be realized in localized areas, though the threat for tornadoes is not quite as high as it is further to the north and west.
Remember, for those within the track uncertainty cone at this point in time, this storm has the potential to bring about catastrophic property losses, massive flooding, and the loss of life. New Orleans and all of Southeast Louisiana as well as parts of S. Mississippi are under mandatory evacuations. Do not hesitate and please, get out while you still can. This afternoon will be too late.
Event Related Links
General Links
Report Katrina conditions in your area/read other's reports at this link (registration not required).
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Graphic showing elevations of New Orleans
Emergency Management/County info
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Mississippi Emer. Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Louisiana Emergency Management
Video/Audio Links
NOAA Weather Radio out of New Orleans
Hurricane City - Live Audio and Video
HurricaneTrack/Mark Sudduth HIRT Team
New Orleans Webcams
French Quarter Cam
Flhurricane.com mirror of the Bourbon st Tropical Isle Webcam
Flhurricane.com mirror of Port of New Orleans Webcam#1
Flhurricane.com mirror of Port of New Orleans Webcam#2
New Orleans Traffic Cams
Flhurricane/Joseph Johnston Mobile Cam
Television/Radio
WWL TV 4 (CBS Affiliate in New Orleans) - KHOU is streaming WWL TV as well HERE
ABC 26 TV (ABC Affiliate in New Orleans)
WDSU Channel 6 (NBC Affiliate New Orleans)
Fox 8 (New Orleans)
WTIX 690 News Radio
WWL 870 News Radio
WTOK 11 / Missippii Alabama ABC Affiliate -- Jason Kelly is assisting Operations Here
Hurricane Now - Video reports from former CNN hurrican reporter Jeff Flock
Weathervine.com
Joseph Johnston's Mobile Bay Webcam
WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola
WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile
Other
NOLA - Everything New Orleans
-- Looking for more Video/Audio links for the approach areas, please let us know if you have any links/information!
Katrina
Google Map plot of Katrina
Hurricane Camille and Hurricane Katrina plotted on a google map
Visible Floater Satellite of Katrina
Water Vapor Floater of Katrina
Visible Satellite Floater of Katrina with storm track overlays
Animated model plots of Katrina
Spaghetti Model Plot of Katrina from Colorado State
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Mobile, AL Long Range Radar
New Orleans, LA Long Range Radar
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, New Orleans, Mobile
TD#13
Animated model plots of TD#13
Invest 91L
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 09:07 PM |
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East to Biloxi/Pascagoola
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I still believe she will turn more right before landfall. The NHC now actually still has her going NNW at landfall. A track that alls between the GFDL and the UKMET seems about right to me. I hope Mobile does not let it's guard down.
| Hawkeyewx |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 09:16 PM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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This is from the NHC 5pm discussion...
...data from the stepped-frequency microwave radiometer instrument on board the
aircraft suggest that the surface to 700 mb flight level wind ratio
is not quite as large as we typically use...and the initial
intensity is adjusted slightly to 145 kt.
Basically what they are saying is that the surface wind has not weakened, but was merely adjusted after getting more detailed info about what is going on at the surface. A small hurricane with a 902 mb pressure may have 185+ mph wind because all the energy is concentrated in a small core, but such a huge storm like Katrina has the wind field spread out so far that the inner core wind is a bit less.
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 09:22 PM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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TWC just said Pressure has been up to 903 mb...
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 09:31 PM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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Traffic on I-10 east is bumper to bumper.... no idea why anyone would go this way, but many people are. In fact, my relatives, stuck in traffic on Hwy. 90 in Pascagoula are planning on staying in Pensacola... whatever... Anyway, at what time do you think people in their cars on the Interstate (either I-10 E or I-55/57-N) will be in danger?
| susieq |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 09:32 PM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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Uh, there are no hotel rooms in Pensacola. I know - we've tried. Hope they have friends. Tell anyone you know to look in the Tallahassee area or Jax.
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 09:33 PM |
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Re: East to Biloxi/Pascagoola
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Just a note to let all my CFHC friends that I've been much to busy to post.... I've finished all my preps and will still stay in Biloxi but not near the beach.... I'm 20 feet above sea level but I've put anything of value either 3 feet higher or on my second floor.... packing up my two bassets, generator and chain saw and will be heading out...
when the 5:00 advisory came out and shifted the storm .3 degrees west I was almost overcome with elation, until I realized the depth of my selfishness, that I'm wanting this beast to go to a place that will be so much more worse than if it hit me... I've accepted the fact that there is a real possibility of losing my home.. that's the price one has to pay for living on the beach... BIloxi will be devistated for sure, but IF it continues to track 55-60 miles to our west it does not make it a worse case scenario for us but for New Orleans.. any deviations back to the east will be so gut wrenching that I'm afraid to see the next forecast update... regardless, soon we will be able to track on radar and we will know exactly what Katrina will do... it is much easier for me to track and monitor a storm when I'm not directly affected or its a minor storm... but when you are facing perhaps one of the greatest storms in our history your priorities change drastically... total and complete preparation is all you think about, have I done absolutely everything possible .... well i think I have done everything possible to save my house but still I have no idea what I'll have when I get back...
I probably won't be able to post for some time after this so to all my good CFHC family friends keep up the great work and I hope your passion for storms never fades... and to all my friends in harms way this evening and tomorrow... a special good luck and god speed....
Frank P
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 09:34 PM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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Hope they have a place to stay in Pensacola. Pensacola had no hotel rooms before the hurricane, let alone now.
Tallahassee is almost 100% too. Jacksonville and down to Gainseville might be where they end up; but that is another 6 hour drive.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 09:36 PM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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Terra, unless they have rooms reserved they will not stay in Pensacola. Actually, we are expecting winds of 70-90mph by morning, and power outages. They may want to keep going east but let them know that the I10 bridge in Pcola is backed up and only 1 lane since Ivan. But they can go south in Pcola and catch US98 east thru Gulf Breeze, no traffic and a fast straight shot east.
| susieq |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 09:39 PM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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By my calculations, the eye of the hurricane will hit approximately in 14 hours. Is this what you guys expect?
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 09:43 PM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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By the way, its time to forget the tracks, and just monitor the radar. Great presentation on N.O. radar. For those on the coast of AL and FL, this is what will tell us what to expect. They have raised the expected winds here in Pcola from 70 mph to 90mph in the morning. That is a CAT 2 and comparable to the direct hit from Erin in 95. I hope everyone has gas for their generators...Also they say they will have 100,000 in the Superdome!!!!! The Saints wish they could draw that crowd..lol
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 09:43 PM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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Truthfully,, the more I think about it. They need to go north and then go east. Try to make Central Georgia. Need to get some distance between them and the coast. The I-10 East bridge at Pensacola may be impassable by the time they get there.
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 09:44 PM |
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Re: East to Biloxi/Pascagoola
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I know we're not supposed to do this...but...best of luck to you Frank...stay safe...as well as everyone else in the path of katrina.
| VG |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 09:47 PM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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#103 Published Sunday August 27, 2005 at 4:45 pm EDT
http://www.kn4lf.com/flwx1.htm
As of the 5:00 pm EDT advisory CAT 5 Katrina has a sustained wind of 165 mph, down from 175 mph, is at position 26.9 deg. N 89.0 deg. W, with a minimum barometric pressure of 26.64" a continued fall and is currently on a NW heading at a speed of 13 mph.
I still think that Katrina will turn NNW-N-NNE due to the influence of the strengthening and digging mid level longwave trough currently located over the Southern Plains region. But as timing will be off now due to the slowly accelerating forward speed, Katrina will make initial landfall near Pilottown on the Mississippi River Delta. This will still threaten the Louisiana Delta with total inundation as well as on the east side of the City Of New Orleans.
Therefore I am shifting my second landfall window westward now to Pass Christian, MS on the left side and Gulf Shores, AL on the right side, with a bulls eye on Gautier, MS. But due to the enormous size of this tropical cyclone the damage window will extend from Morgan CIty, LA in the west to Apalachicola, FL in the east on early Monday morning 08/29/05.
It now appears that the western Florida Panhandle will be spared the worst of Katrina but it will still receive a serious blow. If Katrina were to hold her present strength then we would be looking at an incredible storm surge of 15-20 feet, with some spots seeing 28-32 feet just to the right of the eyewall at landfall. Some of the surge may also reach the west coast of the Florida peninsula too.
It takes a special set of circumstances for a CAT 5 tropical cyclone to form and it is very hard for a tropical cyclone to hold at a strong CAT 5 level for very long. But she is so strong that she may only weaken back to a weak CAT 5 (oxymoron) at landfall. But at some point she will undergo another eye wall reformation cycle (ERC), will leave the very warm loop current, enter shallower shelf water and dry air entrainment and wind shear will increase and she may weaken back to a CAT 4 at landfall. But a CAT 4 will still cause catastrophic damage.
And last and least we now have T.D. #13 which is at 15.4 deg. N 46.8 deg. W or 965 miles east of the Lesser Antilles, has a sustained wind of 30 mph, a minimum barometric pressure of 29.74" and is moving WNW at 13 mph.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 09:51 PM |
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Re: East to Biloxi/Pascagoola
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I no this breaks the rules,But for Frank and everyone else affected by this monster,The whole country is praying for all of you,and we will be there to help in anyway we can.This is a bad as it gets.We really need to come together as a nation and pray for these people,and then help them when the storm is over.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 09:51 PM |
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Re: East to Biloxi/Pascagoola
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Quote:
I know we're not supposed to do this...but...best of luck to you Frank...stay safe...as well as everyone else in the path of katrina.
FYI, things like this are ok in situations like this. I sent Frank a PM myself. But really we're not looking to kill posts for the sake of it. We are going to be leniant with certain types of posts during Katrina. Disaster Forum is intended for have you heard about XXX in YYY type of posts. But rules are relaxed, so don't worry.
| kissy |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 09:53 PM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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Just curious how often you come close to your forecasts? If what you say comes about Pascagoula would be in some deep you know what!!!
| GulfBreezeFL |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 09:54 PM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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pcola,
Have you heard anything about what to expect in Gulf Breeze? Where do you live in GB and are you staying?
I live about 3 miles east of GB Proper on the North side of 98 (Grand Pointe Subdivision) and am staying. All my preps are in place, except for my wife and 2 small children are with me (ages 3 and 2), but never again, next time any Cat2+ enters the Gulf, they are flying to the Grandparents in St. Louis or KC, MO.............. ASAP.
I don't care if it costs me $4k a year to do it, putting my family through this is the worst.
Take care!
Admins, just realized my error with this post and it will NOT happen again. Thanks, and also a donation via paypal is forthcoming!
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 10:02 PM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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Gulf Breeze, I have PM'd you. Sorry Admin but I wanted to let him Know.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 10:03 PM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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Terra, cars on the roads will begin to be in danger as soon as the first and second feeder bands start making their way onshore. It will create the potential for traffic accidents all over the place and driving will become much more difficult due to heavy rain, high winds, and the potential for tornadoes. Essentially, though, that time is about now. Bands are already moving through and becoming more concentrated by the hour. Driving is fast becoming a poor option, I'm afraid, out to Mobile and Pensacola.
| VG |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 10:07 PM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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Kissy Asked:
Just curious how often you come close to your forecasts? If what you say comes about Pascagoula would be in some deep you know what!!!
Thomas Says:
I correctly forecasted all landfalling tropical cyclones last season and all so far this season. But answering your question will probably get me censored.
| cmoore |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 10:16 PM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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Has anyone realized that as soon as winds get to tropical force they will close the I10 bridge in P’cola? It is not structurally sound enough to handle anything more! Folks may consider hwy90 through Pace/Milton and also hwy98 through Gulf breeze. Good luck all~ Not good to be on the raods as these bands are coming in but it would be worse to be in that bridge.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 10:21 PM |
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The End Game
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It's now down to the End Game for Katrina, moving at a healthy clip to the northwest. Landfall is likely within 10-12hr along the extreme S. coast of Louisiana, not far from the Venice and Buras areas -- maybe slightly NW of there -- with a date with New Orleans growing ever likely for Monday morning. Currently, the storm is located about 150mi offshore and 215mi south to south-southeast of New Orleans, as located by Doppler radar, and moving more or less between the northwest and north-northwest at this point in time. Outer rain bands are beginning to affect regions of the entire northern Gulf coast and conditions are only going to go downhill from here.
At this rate of speed, the storm should be near New Orleans, likely as a category 4/5 hurricane, in about 18hr. Landfall is projected at or near the current intensity of 140kt within 10-12hr along the SE Louisiana coastline. As the system draws closer to the coast, the potential for a "saving grace" such as an eyewall cycle or increasing shear diminishes, increasing the potential catastrophic effects this storm may bring.
Further updates through the night.
| debwire |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 10:22 PM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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I imagine that it's probably a little too early to predict that tropical depression #13 will be a fish spinner considering that Katrina started as tropical depression 10, which fizzled out 8/14 only to reform as tropical depression 12 on 8/23. Am I incorrect in this assessment? So much for her fizzling out or becoming a fish spinner because she's now one of the largest, most powerful hurricanes in history.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 10:23 PM |
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whew
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Battened down the boat.....they're saying a surge of at least 15-20' in Mobile Bay....
what's the latest ya'll? Just got back on line. Been hearing all kinds of rumors....People are going crazy around here...
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 10:24 PM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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Heard Max Mayfield say on fox news the law enforcement officers, ect would need to start getting people off the highways soon as the first bands are moving in which I think is now?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 10:25 PM |
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Re: whew
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geezus rick, good luck and godspeed...you too frank p, mbfly and everyone else in her path
rick, if there's any specific info you need, post it here and we'll all do what we can...
best to you in this time
| Hootowl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 10:32 PM |
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Re: whew
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I know if "it's not tropic it's toast" but...This is sincere.....we (my family) have already discussed what we will do for the affected area (s). We sent lots of food and stuff down south after Charley. Will do the same again. Hope your site will give us the info on where/how to send it. If I get any info I will PM one of the mods to let you know where/how to send help.
God bless and godspeed all.
Dotty and family
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 10:33 PM |
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Re: whew
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I was thinking… this is going to receive more media coverage than perhaps any storm in recent times. With so many people in New Orleans and the surrounding gulf coast covering the event, both media and storm chaser, I expect we will have a comprehensive record of this absolutely tragic and unprecedented event. The fact that this is looking like a day landfall will give everyone a clear and present look at this disaster, which is really beyond all comprehension to the layman. While I am sick to my stomach knowing what so many people are going to be experiencing at daybreak, the filmmaker and weather enthusiast in me is very anxious. I think people will finally be able to see what a super hurricane is like so that they may be able to fear and appreciate it as they should. It is unfortunate that so many people will have to suffer for this appreciation to be earned, however I think we may be at a threshold in the forecasting of this event. Watching the local media and the anchors “bringing you into the eye of the storm”, I can’t help but feel that I am seeing “dead men walking”, so to speak. Wayne Salade (our emergency manager) spoke to a limited audience at my school that I was fortunate enough to be a part of. One of the topics we were discussing is the advent of increasingly dangerous “stunts” partaken by the media, and how one day it is going to catch up to them. I cannot believe that the one guy in New Orleans on Fox has any idea what he is getting into. Katrina may be host to a media fatality like this… hopefully not on the air.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 10:37 PM |
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Eye of the Tiger
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Katrina's eye is now visible on the NO radar
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 10:41 PM |
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Re: whew
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Lysis, funny you should bring that up, I was just discussing that here at home. The mainstream media should take heed of the fact that (1) most major hurricane trackers will not be in New Orleans or anywhere close to the expected points of landfall and (2) the weather channel will not be having a man there. With each storm many of the networks are willing to take greater risks and continue to send out guys who are not meteorologists. With so many close calls, it's only a matter of time. Cooper on CNN almost got himself killed during Dennis and a local guy (Donald Forbes on Orlando CBS 6) came pretty close during Charley. Hopefully these guys will play it smart, but unlike in a Cat 1-4, in a 5... you really can't hide... especially in a giant bowl surrounded by water.
| Sportsfreak1989s |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 10:48 PM |
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Re: whew
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Well we just got our first rain band through here in Lafayette Louisiana. The way it is looking that if Katrina does not start to make that "curve" that it is suppose to make it will come up into Morgan City, but please don't use my words, that is just what would happen if it continued on it's current North - West path. I am starting to get more and more worried as I see these bands slowly coming ashore. I hope everyone in New Orleans stays safe and god bless everyone in its current path.
Is there still that possibility of Kat coming my way (Lafayette, Louisiana)?
Alot of my family members are also starting to worry, and it is starting to get turned into chaos mode here in Lafayette. I don't know what to think anymore. I would not mind it coming my way because I have an aunt in Mobile Alabama who is just recovering from a stroke she had 3 days after Dennis ( they think she had it due to extreme stress due to Dennis). But then again with it coming my way it would put other people in extreme danger
. I am in total confusion right now. What do ya'll thing about it staying on that North West path and coming my way?Everyone is in my prayers and I hope everyone can get out of this safely with their family because life is not replacable. GOOD LUCK ALL AND GOD BLESS
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 10:58 PM |
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Re: whew
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Quote:Just one question,Why are you still there???Just watching the news and it is showing people on the beach in Mobile.Are these people insane??Just wondering what goes through peoples minds that stay with a monster storm like this coming.I video taped her coming on shore in Ft Laud.,but that was a cat 1,And I left when things got bad.I am just trying to understand these people.
Battened down the boat.....they're saying a surge of at least 15-20' in Mobile Bay....
what's the latest ya'll? Just got back on line. Been hearing all kinds of rumors....People are going crazy around here...
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:06 PM |
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Re: whew
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Clark, I am watching the movement of Katrina on radar here in Pcola and I see very little movement..am I missing something because local weather said it is slowing down and your last blog said it was moving at a healthy clip. Am I missing something that radar may not show forward speed well? I am using the NHC site.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:08 PM |
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Re: whew
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I am afraid that if wishing made it so, the storm would have already been torn to shreds by the ones who want it to go another direction and by those who might ignorantly want it to come their way because they do not realize it is not as romantic as the storm stories channel makes it sound. This advice is for those who find benefit in it: the rain will not hurt anyone. The winds will not hurt most people if they are in a shelter of basic construction of stone or wood. If the preparations were made in advance. As the winds become stronger, the barometric pressures will start to drop and this will cause physical and emotional anxiety. Some feel stuperous and drowsy. This is not a good time to drink alcohol, take stimulants or other mood altering chemicals if you do not usually do so. Just remember that it is not all emotional that there are some real physical things going on with your body in response to the changing atmosphere. Do as much as you can to save energy and keep your mind occupied on pleasant things for as long as possible. I can only say that when and if it becomes an emergency, do not panic and do not strike out in the dark or in areas that you are not familiar with and do not go alone if you can avoid it. Last remember those in Florida that you do not know are praying very hard for your safety and survival. We need for you to defeat this storm.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:09 PM |
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Re: whew
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The TWC met that was previously in NO is now in Mandeville. I guess I understand the person's signature file that comments about Jim Cantore broadcasting in your backyard. He did say that he didn't expect to be there tomorrow morning, but thought they would just move slightly north to I-12. Although I do live in Mandeville, the I-12 interchange is only ~5-6 miles from the Lake, so if TWC reporter is planning on staying there... how bad can it be?
P.S. Is Steve from Metairie out of town yet?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:10 PM |
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Re: whew
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>>>> This is not a good time to drink alcohol, take stimulants or other mood altering chemicals if you do not usually do so.
it's not a good idea to drink or take other mood altering substances even if you USUALLY do so...but you do otherwise offer excellent advice...
| flarrfan |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:12 PM |
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Re: whew
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Quote:
Is there still that possibility of Kat coming my way (Lafayette, Louisiana)?
It's not looking that way, as satellite and radar for the last couple hours seem to show a slight turn consistent with the NHC track. If that happens you're on the west side and in for some pretty good wind and rain for the next 36 hours, but likely not nearly as much as 75 miles east of you. You could very well see some hurricane winds, though.
Unfortunately, the best case scenario for the largest number of people would be to aim the storm toward you. If the storm could somehow overpower the trough and stay on a NW course toward Morgan City, that would bring the worst of it in over the Atchafalaya swamps, with the least population density of any location on the central coast. That would be bad news for Lafayette, but at least NOLA and points east would miss the Cat 4 and 5 eye.
Been lurking here for a year, since last September...this is the best place on the net to keep up to date on what's going on. Sorry my first post is wishcasting the storm right toward you, probably won't happen, but it would spare a lot of people who are staring down the barrel right now.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:13 PM |
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Re: whew
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I was covering the Gammut of illegal activity to medical activity that people some times have to take. But you are entirely correct it is never a good time to drink or take stimulants. It is even more dangerous during storms because good judgement is going to be the one thing that will take care of crises.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:15 PM |
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Re: KAT Movement
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I noticed the last hour or so a northward motion of Katrina. While it may just be a temporary wobble, if it persists this may have some implication on ultimate landfall (i.e. NO). The on-air MET on MSNBC mentioned this possibility too. It's much too soon to tell, but an interesting development. I think NHC maintains a N-NW motion all the way up to the mouth of the Miss River.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocal...ne&pid=none
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:15 PM |
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I am certainly NOT on the boat...
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I am at a friend's house inland 30 miles....I brought my Honda generator, loaded up my valuables on my truck...and got out of there 2-3 hours ago.
I am sure there will be some stubborn people who will not evacuate. We are north of I-10...and the rule of thumb is to evacuate if you are south of I-10....
many will not....
Ivan just missed us last year....It kicked right at the last minute...and we got 60 mile an hour winds....nuthing....
This one is on our west side....and that is not good..
I am seeing more of a northerly turn...ya'll.....!!!!
We could...and I repeat...we could take this on the chin....
If it hits New Orleans...it'll be the natural disaster of the century for the US....
If it hits Mobile.....ouch
| Magic Hat |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:16 PM |
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Re: whew
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I took his statement to be for those like me who are on medication, not anyone who would use illegal drugs. Which reminds me, I forgot to take my menapause meds this morning. Thanks for the reminder
Lu
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:23 PM |
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|
Re: whew
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Hi all - took my 4-hour nap and I'm monitoring this now along with everyone.
OK I heard from my brother who works for the sheriff's dept in Pascagoula. They understand the storm surge situation and that most of the county if not all will be underwater, at varying depths, and that will be the threat, not the wind, there. My brother put his meds in a waterproof pocket in his vest. He will be stationed on the west side of the county. We talked about where a little strip of land might be above water there, and he promised to take a close look at the maps to remember where the highest points are when the surge comes. They will be working out of a little sub station right by I-10 there, using armored vehicles to go out and make rescues until it is not possible any more.
I think everyone is starting to realize what a vulnerable position Jackson County is in as far as surge. The maps are online if anyone wants to look.
They will be doing rescues, among other things, until it is almost too late to go out. Then they try to wait it out in a "safe place." He's already considered that it's entirely possible he mght spend part of the night clinging to a tree! Anyway, he's prepared as he can be, and he'll try to find a way to get in touch with me at times. We both think that unless Katrina turns east, the cell phone towers will survive even with the flooding.
My mother and one of my other brothers evacuated and are heading to my 4th brother's house in TX. The other brother who lives in the back county, no one has heard from but supposedly he hasn't left because his wife had to work at the Wal-Mart, which did not close (no comment here).
My brother was on the East Bank (of the Pascagoula River) when he called, and they were just getting ready to deploy to the west side of the cty. He said the water is already very high there.
One thing I couldn't find readily and that I'd like someone to post if they know, and that is, exclusive of the steadily rising water, when do they expect the surge to hit that area? If so, can you please post, and PM me on it as well.
A friend asked that I spend the evening with them rather than be alone, but I can still log on here from their laptop, so I'll be checking in.
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:24 PM |
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Re: I am certainly NOT on the boat...
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Quote:
I am at a friend's house inland 30 miles....I brought my Honda generator, loaded up my valuables on my truck...and got out of there 2-3 hours ago.
I am sure there will be some stubborn people who will not evacuate. We are north of I-10...and the rule of thumb is to evacuate if you are south of I-10....
many will not....
Ivan just missed us last year....It kicked right at the last minute...and we got 60 mile an hour winds....nuthing....
This one is on our west side....and that is not good..
I am seeing more of a northerly turn...ya'll.....!!!!
We could...and I repeat...we could take this on the chin....
If it hits New Orleans...it'll be the natural disaster of the century for the US....
If it hits Mobile.....ouch
If it hits New Orleans no doubt it will devistating, but Disater of the century was 9/11.
Anyone else here thinking that it will hit land earlier then they predict?
9/11 was horrible...but lets focus on Katrina please
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:30 PM |
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storm surge simulation
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of new orleans during a slow moving cat iv...
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:30 PM |
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Re: I am certainly NOT on the boat...
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Quote:
If it hits New Orleans...it'll be the natural disaster of the century for the US....
If it hits Mobile.....ouch
The scary part is how both could potentially happen. Worst-case for NOLA is an east pass, with the west eyewall pushing Lake P over the levees and in to the city. Obviously, Mobile's worst-case is a west pass, with the stronger east eyewall flooding the Bay. This is looking really, really bad
WEATHER CONTENT: from looking at the NOLA radar, it also looks to me like the eye is moving nearly due-north at this point. In the last few frames there's a dry pocket that formed just outside the west eyewall, let's hope we get an ERC soon.
| MrSpock |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:39 PM |
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Re: I am certainly NOT on the boat...
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It looks like that to me too, although 2 frames does not a trend make
The reason I feel it may be more than a wobble is that on the water vapor loop, I can see the effects of the shortwave to the west, and also, some of the cloud features are eroded on the western side. The IR floater loop I use isn't much help right now as the picture shifted a few frames ago. It also doesn't look like it wants to do an ERC before landfall either.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:40 PM |
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more NO storm surge
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storm surge information concerning NO...
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:41 PM |
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Re: KAT TRACK
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The on-air MET on MSNBC just mentioned the northward motion again. I roughly calculated the movement the last 3.5 hrs, 8.5 mph - so it looks like it has slowed down some.
http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocal...mp;prodnav=none
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:45 PM |
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Re: I am certainly NOT on the boat...
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Unfortunately Dan, if we get an ERC right now, Katrina may have enough time to begin strengthening again right at landfall. At this point though, debating intensity is almost insignificant, as the surge is the big factor for Nawlins, and when it comes to wind... well it doesn't make a whole heckuva lot of difference if I hit you with a sledgehammer or a basball bat... either way it's not pretty. I'd like to post a link Old Sailor posted a few days ago again. It has been a tremendous help for me in determining the true motion of the storm. http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
It's a game of mere miles for New Orleans right now, I can't really make a call. If by some miracle, the storm passes far enough east to avoid devasting the city, it’s still going to be a close shave. I don’t think we’ll be able to forecast it either, we’ll simply know it when it happens.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:47 PM |
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Re: KAT TRACK
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I also saw the slowdown. What is really interesting to me is here in Pcola (Gulf Breeze) we are experiencing lightning and thunder. very rare in a tropical system. Actually the last storm I remember this was Erin in 95, and well after landfall.
| Todd |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:50 PM |
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Re: more NO storm surge
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LT Phil and others .. here is a link to a rather large pdf which explains the levee system and what can go really wrong here in NO Specifically what happened in Hurricane Betsy http://www.nola.com/hurricane/images/goingunder.pdf ..
It's 24 mgs
The smaller JPG http://www.nola.com/hurricane/popup/goingunder_jpg.html
Here is the JPG for the current levee system in place . their last line of defence
http://www.nola.com/hurricane/popup/nolalevees_jpg.html
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:51 PM |
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Re: KAT TRACK
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WWLTV just reported that Oil is now at 70 dollars a barrel.. Get ready for a huge gas price increase.
There is only speculation at this point in time that gas prices may reach $70/barrel on Monday or Tuesday; but, right now, the oil markets are not currently open to react to any impact of the storm. --Clark
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:53 PM |
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Re: whew
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Radar loops are generally only one hour long, particularly those from the NWS. Thus, they are not going to show forward speed all that well; movement on satellite is better for that right now. Overall, it's still going at a decent clip, but it's going to fluctuate up and down between 7-8mph and 14-15mph.
As for the "dry slot" on radar -- long-range radar through areas of heavy precipitation often suffers from what is called attenuation, where echoes may not be able to be detected at such ranges due to the heavy precipitation capturing all of the echoes sent out by the radar. That's more likely than not what is occurring in the last couple of radar frames at this time.
Conditions have begun to really deteriorate in Southeast Louisiana & New Orleans and will continue to do so through the night. The first well-defined feeder band is just off-shore, stretching from New Orleans to south of Pensacola along the extreme northern Gulf coast. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes are likely with this band. Future bands will only ratchet up the winds, rain, and the waves. Storm surges of 20' are not out of the question over a wide area from Mobile to SE Louisiana where the storm makes landfall.
At 7:45p ET, the storm is located 200mi. SSE of New Orleans and 130mi. due S of the extreme SE tip of Louisiana, moving NNW at between 8-11mph. The latest recon report shows a central pressure of 904mb, only 2mb higher than earlier this afternoon. This storm is likely to maintain itself over the course of the evening, aided in time by the diurnal convective maximum and warm waters off of the coast of Louisiana. It is a good bet that this storm will landfall as a ~165mph category 5 hurricane in SE Louisiana and at it's current rate of speed, will do so in the region before sun-up tomorrow. It will be near New Orleans sometime several hours on either side of noon (CT) tomorrow, moving inland and accelerating through the evening. Impacts will be felt all the way to Pensacola in the form of high winds, surge, and heavy rainfall.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:56 PM |
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Re: whew
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Thanks for the update Clark. Not a lot of good new there.
I just saw in the last vortex message that the eyewall is open to the SW. I would think this would be good news, as perhaps it is a sign of weakening? Or is this a sign of possible rapid intensification about to occur? I realize this is insignificant, the storm won't get weaker than a 4, but I'm looking for any sort of possible silver lining.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:56 PM |
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Re: KAT TRACK
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Clark,
Acutally oil trades electronically tonight so that $70 may be accurate.
Watch MSNBC for more detail.
Thanks for the heads-up. I don't believe any major action will be seen until the work week begins, however, and the main markets open, partially due to waiting and seeing what happens with the storm. --Clark
| leetdan |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:57 PM |
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Re: whew
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Absolutely right, I wasn't even thinking about attenuation when I saw that (aspiring electrical engineer here, radar is just a big old antenna at heart). Thanks as always for your insight!
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 28 2005 11:58 PM |
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Tornado/Svr. Thunderstorm Warnings
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Mobile & Baldwin Counties are now under tornado warnings, with the Dauphin Island under the gun from this particular cell. To follow watches and warnings as they are issued -- especially if you do not have a weather radio -- visit http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/. It is likely that as Katrina approaches the coast, parts or all of the area in which in the inner core is projected to pass through will be placed under tornado warnings to highlight the threat of wind damage from this storm. Essentially, this is an F3 tornado with a center 28mi wide and strong winds out to 25mi from the eye in all directions...not something to be messed with.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:01 AM |
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Re: Tornado/Svr. Thunderstorm Warnings
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Remember how amazing it was when buoy 42040 (S of Dauphin Island) reported the 50ft wave for Ivan?
Well at that buoy right now the waves are already 30ft.
Margie, many of us remember the buoy that "stopped" reporting...ivan ripped it out of the sea floor...buckle up
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:03 AM |
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excellent post Clark
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You all have no idea of how much this site means to me.....without a doubt........awesome.
we were just placed under a tornado watch....the band coming in right now made them issue it...because radar is hinting at possible formations.
In a hurricane like this one also has to be aware, not just of the sustained winds, but also of spin-off tornadoes and downbursts...
shoot....my boat is toast, ya'll....toast.....
I had an awesome view in the mornings of Dog River, Alabama...just beautiful....
well, we all go through it one way or another, don't we?
I just hope it misses New Orleans....I really do....
my current gut feel...if you don't mind me posting this...
slash the tip of Louisiana...and hit the Alabama/Mississippi line....
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:04 AM |
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Re: Tornado/Svr. Thunderstorm Warnings
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New Advisory has the Strom moving NNW and Winds down to 160, Pressure is up to 904mb..
Lets just pray this continues and it turns or falls apart.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:04 AM |
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Re: whew
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Could be a sign of some slight weakening...might be an eyewall replacement cycle, but if that were to be occurring, the hurricane hunters would have full recognition of the cycle and would be noting this in the remarks sections of the vortex messages. Instead, it's probably some temporary reorganization, but we can always hope that it is something more substantial than that. I don't anticipate any Isabel-style rapid weakening, though...there's nothing to really support that right now.
It does appear as though that attenuation may not be quite the factor that I thought it might have been, judging by the last few radar frames and collaborating it with the recon report. However, attentuation is still likely playing some role with the representation of the storm on land-based radar.
Edit: on second thought, it might well be the start of an eyewall replacement cycle. The microwave data earlier today apparently -- taking the word of some pros much more trained in this than I am -- showed a second eyewall in the formative stages, something that may only have a very weak signature in radar or in wind data until the point that it is about to replace the first eyewall. What is happening now is somewhat similar to what occurred with the past cycle, where the inner eyewall remained as a fragment along the periphery of the new eyewall. This helped to keep the storm at a constant intensity for some time, longer than normal, before it really ramped up again. I'm still not sold in the least on this being the very beginnings of an eyewall replacement cycle, but feel it's probably 50/50 on that right now. We can only hope that it is.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:08 AM |
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Re: Tornado/Svr. Thunderstorm Warnings
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Quote:
New Advisory has the Strom moving NNW and Winds down to 160, Pressure is up to 904mb..
Lets just pray this continues and it turns or falls apart.
i haven't checked the radar/sat in a bit...lemme check...let's hope this is the beginning of an erc...if clark would like to postulate on this, it would be appreciated...
| richisurfs |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:09 AM |
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Re: KAT TRACK
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Concerning a huge price increase in gasoline, I saw a report today on one of the networks that the US has enough of a crude oil reserve to cover a years worth of production from this region. It is there for a catastrophic event such as this. If our President will step up and tap into these then a huge price increase in the price of gas can be avoided. I would personally like to see him act quickly on this to prevent the oil corporations from using this as another excuse to raise prices. I also agree with Clark in that we shouldn't speculate on things like these before it even happens.
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:12 AM |
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Re: excellent post Clark
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Quote:
You all have no idea of how much this site means to me.....without a doubt........awesome.
we were just placed under a tornado watch....the band coming in right now made them issue it...because radar is hinting at possible formations.
In a hurricane like this one also has to be aware, not just of the sustained winds, but also of spin-off tornadoes and downbursts...
shoot....my boat is toast, ya'll....toast.....
I had an awesome view in the mornings of Dog River, Alabama...just beautiful....
well, we all go through it one way or another, don't we?
I just hope it misses New Orleans....I really do....
slash the tip of Louisiana...and hit the Alabama/Mississippi line....
Rick, you stay safe bud. I hope everyone makes it thru safely. I do see a more northerly movement to the eye. If it stays that way, it may spare the worst to NO, but wouldn't be good for Biloxi an Mobile.
my current gut feel...if you don't mind me posting this...
| flarrfan |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:13 AM |
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Oil Storm
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Found this on a hobby forum I check a few times a day. Poster is one of the more solid regulars at this forum and says the country's only deep water transfer port for big oil tankers is just off of Grand Isle. Anybody here that can confirm this info?
http://forums.flightsim.com/ts/dcboard.p..._id=76466#76466
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:15 AM |
Re: Oil Storm
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sure looked like the weather channel just moved the track east a bit? Did I dream that or did they barely adjust it?
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:16 AM |
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storm surge map
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Link to Image
No Image leeching from private sites - Mike C.
| BTfromAZ |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:19 AM |
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Re: KAT TRACK
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Clark: Your comment about oil is incorrect. Oil is now trading in the far east (Singapore, to be specific): http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20050828/bs_nm/markets_asia_nymex_dc
Thanks; already accounted for above with another post. -Clark
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:21 AM |
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Re: KAT TRACK
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ok...from now on...and i know this may be important to some people...please put the oil trading price posts in another forum...
next post on this goes bye-bye
thank you
|
Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:25 AM |
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Re: whew
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Actually, attenuation is no big deal at the NEXRAD sites (WSR88D and WSR98D) - these are S-band radars (10cm wavelength) and slice right through the hurricane. Some of the best radar images of Andrew (when the NHC radar antenna was blown off the roof) came from the Melbourne WSR88D.
Cheers,
ED
(sorry LIPhil - I just edited myself!)
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:29 AM |
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Re: whew
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the IR is definately cooling off.....or warming up should I say.
(the red is disappearing)
reasons?
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:31 AM |
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Re: whew
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People haven't mentioned anything about tide levels, so here is a great link showing what to expect:
http://140.90.121.76/katrina.html
Looks like worst case scenario - a landfall right about high tide.
Source is NOAA Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS)
----
Edit - reply to Genesis below: Actually, where I am, our max tide shift is generally about 2 feet (on the Chesapeake Bay). --RC
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:40 AM |
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Re: whew
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Tidal range down here is only about a foot.
However, a foot is a foot, and if you're a foot away from a breach of a seawall or levee, then it matters a LOT!
Nonetheless it is NOT like the tidal range you get up on the east coast, where there is a large swing from low to high tide.
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:44 AM |
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Re: whew
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Clark - the eyewall seems to be enlarging, pressure is up a tad, and the land based winds speeds lower a fraction.. it appears to resemble an ERC that I have seen in the past. But, with 88 - 90 degree water ahead of Katrina, is it possibly too early and she may well gain more strength?
| WhitherWeather |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:47 AM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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Don't know if this vindicates Thomas's call on where she'll come ashore, but I made my own anim I could follow of the last Visible Satellite Floater that's on the first page of this thread, because the one linked too jumps back and forth between different views and I couldn't tell what was happening. The one I made is below. I just lined up the coastal outline for each shot, so the cropping of the outer bands is different, but at least the eye can be followed. I put some crossing lines demarking outer edges of the eye from first frame to last frame, and it seems to me that in the last three or four frames, she takes a northward lean. YMMV.
WhitherWeather
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:51 AM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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That was cool...been looking as well & noticed the shift...but it was predicted to turn north about this point...looks like her eye has grown...what an amazing storm.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:53 AM |
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an interesting parallel
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flipping thru the major media...just caught msnbc & chris matthews...he asked the question "a lot o f people have seen the tsunami photos...will the people here see a 'wall of water' like that?'" before he could answer, i mouthed, "yes"...
unfortunately...storm surge is like that...it is going to resemble a "wall of water" which piles up on shore, and then, on top of the water which has piled on shore, and then on top of that...
i hope there is a remote camera to capture this, because i sure hope no human tries to...he/she won't be around to describe it...
| Sneakbridge |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:53 AM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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The eye might have grown but doesn't look as cylindrical, which means it could weaken before landfall... let's pray..
| Miami Beach, FLA USA |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:57 AM |
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ERC?
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may be the beginning stages of an ERC...let's hope so
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 01:00 AM |
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Re: whew
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Ed,
Thanks for the information. I had been taught otherwise in a mesoscale course here, but have absolutely no reason to go against your comments since it was just an overview course. It does help to clarify the situation, certainly.
Thanks -Clark
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 01:00 AM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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sorry for the long post. I couldn't find the link for this but it seemed worth it.
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED
STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT
LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL
FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY
DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.
PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD
FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE
BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME
WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A
FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.
AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH
AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY
VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE
ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE
WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN
AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING
INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY
THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW
CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE
KILLED.
AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE
CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE
OUTSIDE!
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 01:01 AM |
|
Re: ERC?
|
Even if it IS an ERC, there's too much time left until landfall. An ERC cycle only takes six hours... six hours might be a few hours too short.
ERC Info
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 01:04 AM |
|
Re: ERC?
|
Geraldo is running pics to the bulletin the NWS issued today to put in perspective I guess.
| Trekman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 01:07 AM |
|
|
Re: KAT TRACK
|
We are getting vivid lightning and thunder here in Ocean City (North Ft Walton Beach). We got lightning and thunder with the first feeder bands of Dennis as well. Lightning flashes every 10 seconds or so. Gonna be an interesting night here.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 01:17 AM |
|
|
Re: ERC?
|
I'll tell you what...looking at those pictures on TV of the people trying to leave New Orleans scares the heck out of me. Are those people going to make it to safety before tomorrow morning?
I just heard that the bottom of the Superdome will be under water; that's why they have all the people in the stands.
I still cannot comprehend the strength of this storm. It baffles the mind that something like this could actually happen.
I think it was FNC that had the former director of FEMA on and they are saying that the loss of human lives could be between 20,000 - 50,000 people. She had him repeat it because it's unbelievable.
I am still praying that this monster weakens somehow, and despite the people who say that they doubt it will, I still have my faith in the Big Guy and right now He's about the only one who can do anything about this.
I hope that all the people here on this forum that are in the path of this storm are long gone and safe. You know who you are...and you BETTER NOT respond to this!
| VG |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 01:19 AM |
|
|
Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
|
From the NWS:
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL.PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOODFRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOMEWALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED.
THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION.
PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.
POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLYTHE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 01:22 AM |
|
Re: ERC?
|
Quite a monster she is and maybe a met can answer this-- how much difference to NO would it make if this storm became a cat 4? My thinking is the outcome still would be terrible. I think a cat 3 would be quite destructive also
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 01:26 AM |
|
|
Storm surge totals - explanation
|
I looked at the graphic depicting the probable storm surge.
The surge was estimated between 20-30 feet in the New Orleans area.
I have a question. Is storm surge 20-30 feet above sea level? Or does it mean 20-30 feet above the normal water level in the area in question. For example, N.O. is 12 feet below sea level.
So do I add twenty feet to -12 or.....
I'm confused. Clarification appreciated.
Thanks,
Bev
| VG |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 01:28 AM |
|
|
|
Re: an interesting parallel
|
Actually the storm surge will not visibly flow towards the shore like the Tsunami on December 26, 2004. It actually rises vertically in a very abrupt manner and almost seems to come out of the ground.
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 01:28 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Storm surge totals - explanation
|
Quote:
I looked at the graphic depicting the probable storm surge.
The surge was estimated between 20-30 feet in the New Orleans area.
I have a question. Is storm surge 20-30 feet above sea level? Or does it mean 20-30 feet above the normal water level in the area in question. For example, N.O. is 12 feet below sea level.
So do I add twenty feet to -12 or.....
I'm confused. Clarification appreciated.
Thanks,
Bev
Surge is the rise above current level, so you also have to adjust for the normal tide.
You then add on top of the surge the wave height. So if you have a 20' surge and 10' waves, the top of the water is 30' above the normal water level.
If you have a 20' surge and a 20' levee, you'd think you're ok - and you are, unless there are another 10' worth of waves on top of the surge......
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 01:29 AM |
|
|
Re: Storm surge totals - explanation
|
Nasty rain band going through here right now. Looks like a due north motion now. How it wobbles is going to tell us a lot about impacts to the East and whether N.O. is spared at all. Remember Ivan shifed east,
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 01:31 AM |
|
Re: Storm surge totals - explanation
|
Interesting, WDSU in New Orleans is actually being broadcast from WESH in Orlando while the N.O. station evacuates north. I was watching, and I thought, "hey I know those guys..."
So for those of you who were curious, as I was, even some of the tv stations evacuated. Also of note, everyone who was outside the Superdome earlier is now inside (according to WDSU).
|
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 01:38 AM |
|
|
Re: ERC?
|
Quote:
Quite a monster she is and maybe a met can answer this-- how much difference to NO would it make if this storm became a cat 4? My thinking is the outcome still would be terrible. I think a cat 3 would be quite destructive also
Max Mayfield was asked this question (difference between a Cat 4 or Cat 5 into New Orleans) on MSNBC about an hour ago. He said "at this point, it's really the difference between being hit by an 18 wheeler or a frieght train".
This is such a scary event. I'm having difficulty getting my brain around how powerful this storm is and the certainty of pending damage to life and property.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 01:38 AM |
|
Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
|
Quote:
The eye might have grown but doesn't look as cylindrical, which means it could weaken before landfall... let's pray..
I have been saying that since yesterday and today that IMO it will not hold a 5 but they got my post taken off since back then it was 175.
I still hold to what i said early today and yesterday that praying this drops some to lesson the devestation NOT stop it but lessen it..
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 01:47 AM |
|
|
Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
|
We all hope she will weaken.. even just a little but afraid that the problem with New Orleans is we don't need it to weaken as much as we need her rainfall to go poof and as that is not going to happen.. there is a real problem. The problem is not the difference here of 5 or 10 or even 20 mph winds.. it is the rainfall and New Orlean's inability to handle it.
We all are hoping for some miracle. Read somewhere about dry air intrusion somewhere.. right now I'll grab onto any possible scenario where the damage is not quite catastrophic and just 'bad'
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 01:48 AM |
|
|
|
I'll stay online as long as possible....
|
Hard rain right now....things will soon deteriorate...
I can't help but think about this ya'll....it keeps changing......wnw......nw.......nnw.....
soon n....
then nne
plenty of time for that....
shoot...I just hope it misses New Orleans...to many people will die if it hits New Orleans...I hope it misses...and then they will get busy and build those levees...instead of bombs and aircraft carriers....
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 01:50 AM |
|
|
|
Brian Wiliams
|
Yeah.. he was talking about how many knives and even guns they took away from people during the pat downs.
Oh... and in the rush to go..if you forgot proof of your prescription.. you couldn't take your drugs with you .. were told there were EMT inside if you have a problem.
Oh.. and you were allowed to take lighters in but told you could not smoke.....or maybe no lighters but told you could keep your cigarettes but no smoking.
Well...while the power holds and back up holds.. we will have live coverage I suppose.
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 01:55 AM |
|
|
|
Interesting - Research on Hurricane effect on New Orleans
|
This article is from the New Orleans Time-Picayune. It is an interesting explanation of the dangers inherent in the topogrphy of N.O., the pumping stations, the levees, etc. in the event of a Cat 3 Hurricane. They barely brushed the possibility of a cat 4 or 5. Cat 3 appears to be enough to cause devastation due to the unique features of N.O..
Hurricane effect on New Orleans from Times-Picayune
-Bev
Charley eye-witness
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 01:56 AM |
|
|
|
Restrengthening?
|
is there such a thing as an outer layer replacement cycle?
on IR loop it looks like Katrina expelled a pulse of energy (orange and red) and is now restrengthening again.
| Rad |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:03 AM |
|
Frank in Biloxi & Steve in New Iberia & Nawlins
|
Hey Buddy hunker down and save me some crawfish,this has been years in the makin' and to steve in nawlins , good luck bro hope you guys are allright . Still have them cold budweisers here for yas in florida . BE SAFE !!!!
ST. Pete
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:05 AM |
|
|
|
Re: I'll stay online as long as possible....
|
please turn right...
no offense to the good folks in Mobile and eastward...
i just hope those who were asked to evac (or told) to did so...
otherwise...
(crying
)
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:05 AM |
|
|
|
I think the nhc has it pegged perfect
|
I have been looking at wobbles and getting nervous...it is still NNW.....
New Orleans
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:10 AM |
|
Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect
|
Yes nnw still has not made the north turn and at this rate it will (the center) miss N.O. if no turn north happends and mobile even better so waitging on the turn or no turn.I think best case is if there is no turn there would be less devastation.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:11 AM |
|
|
|
Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect
|
Quote:
Yes nnw still has not made the north turn and at this rate it will (the center) miss N.O. if no turn north happends and mobile even better so waitging on the turn or no turn.I think best case is if there is no turn there would be less devastation.
where ralph?
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:12 AM |
Is she strenghtening again
|
On the radar loop there is yellow starting to show more around the eye. Is this just because she is getting closer to the radar or possible strenghtening? Sorry about the spelling errors.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lix_N0Z_lp.shtml
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:15 AM |
|
Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect
|
If it does not turn the local TV guy said there would not be as much since N.O is big.Sure wherever it hits is going to get nailed but there is a lot less pop west of N.O then if it went over N.O.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:16 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Is she strenghtening again
|
I didn't want to say this, but I am seeing the same thing. The eyewall looks like it's strengthening, although the NHC did predict it could strengthen just before landfall.
I don't think it matters where it hits, it's going to be devastating no matter where it goes, however, if N.O. takes a direct hit it will be something that we have never seen before.
Just keep praying.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:16 AM |
|
|
|
Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect
|
currently looks like COC is 89.3W 27.5N
West eyewall is 89.55W.
NO is 89.9W 30.1N
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lix_long.shtml
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:17 AM |
|
Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:18 AM |
|
Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect
|
Winds down to 140 might make my prediction of cat 3 yet
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:18 AM |
|
Re: Is she strenghtening again
|
I am a bit ignorant on this topic so would like some insight. Where is this former FEMA guy saying thousands may die if this storm sustains its winds. I thought only 267 people were killed when Camille hit?? Hasn't the city been completely evacuated> This former FEMA guy seems like an alarmist. I hope the city is pretty much empty now.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:19 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Is she strenghtening again
|
Mayor of Biloxi just said on FNC that winds have come down to 140mph. Could that have something to do with the feeder bands interacting with land?
| wulrich |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:19 AM |
|
Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
|
Change in the strength?
I don't know if I just heard correctly, but accroding to the Mayor of New Orleans, winds are down to 140MPH. He said he just had a conference call with the National Hurricane Center.
Should be interesting to see if this comes to fruition.
That's about the only glimmer of hope I've heard today.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:21 AM |
|
Re: Is she strenghtening again
|
Quote:
Mayor of Biloxi just said on FNC that winds have come down to 140mph. Could that have something to do with the feeder bands interacting with land?
Has to do with a lot of things as i stated yesterday.
#1 cooler (not much) water befoire landfall.
#2 storms cannot keep the 175 that long
#3 the little bit of shear that was forcasted the other day is getting to it some.
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:21 AM |
|
Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect
|
Where did you see a CAT 4 at?
Also latest NO Radar shows strong bands not reachcing the se coast and I wouldnt be surpised if Hurricane force winds isnt felt soon.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:22 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Is she strenghtening again
|
ya'll might as well say it...hell...i'm done with any more edits tonight...post away about gas prices...
how in the hell did the storm everyone has been talking about/planning for/doing storm surge maps on/lecturing college students on...
how the hell did it happen THIS WAY?
especially after 2004...
is not NO always listed as one of the top 3 most vulnerable cities? after Miami & Hattaras???
i didn't see this (not that i'm a met) but did anyone see a cat I-II scraping FL in the end of August striking NO (or even if not somewhere close to there) as a CAT V???or at best a CAT IV?
good luck & godspeed...to all
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:22 AM |
Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
|
WOW, so we could see cat 2 by land? if it dropped 20 in 2 hours and has several more to go? is this a silver lining.? wow that's good news.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:23 AM |
|
Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect
|
Nate the new update in a few mins will have the winds down to 140 mph per a few different people who were talking to the NHC.
140 is cat 4.
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:23 AM |
|
Re: Is she strenghtening again
|
Steve H1, if you are talking about New Orleans, there are an estimated 100,000+ people still in the city. About a quarter of them are in the Superdome. The mayor of NO was offering some advice to those still in the French Quarter. He said try to get the 3rd floor of a 3 story building, and take something to break through the roof in case the water gets that high. I'd say there's a good chance an awful lot of people could die.
Also, some of the parishes around New Orleans are reporting that only about 80% of the people evacuated. Some of those parishes aren't in much better shape to weather a Cat 5.
| Black Pearl |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:23 AM |
|
|
Re: I'll stay online as long as possible....
|
Quote:
please turn right...
no offense to the good folks in Mobile and eastward...
None taken. We totally understand and are praying for New Orleans as well.
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:25 AM |
|
Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect
|
Katrina is still on the NHC forecasted path. With a more northward movement not expected for a few more hours.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| collegemom |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:25 AM |
|
|
Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect
|
Certainly you jest. I pray for God to just suck Katrina up to heaven and spare the rest of us.
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:28 AM |
|
Re: Is she strenghtening again
|
Thanks Ralph, Max Mayfield kept bringing up CAT 3 when Larry Kin was talking to him. There is a good cgance this thing could go down to CAT 3 before landfall? Espiaclly with the cooler waters on the coast.
I would love to see it go down to CAT 2, But I dont see that happening.
Meterologist on WWLTV just said that a new eyewall may be forming and that could cause strengthing. NOT GOOD.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:28 AM |
|
Recon
|
UNtil I see a drastci rise in pressure, I will not believe this storm has truly weakened that much. I know some on here don't like him, but Joe B was on FNC earlier with scathing comments about how the NHC should use pressure and not the winds found by Recon as a measuring stick. I mean it is truly a shot in the dark if Recon finds the highest winds.
Also, I still believe she will clip the very tip of LA and hit near Biloxi.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:29 AM |
|
|
Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect
|
Let's not all forget that just because the focus is on NO, that the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama are also going to get hammered severely. This storm will have a very large impact all the way through the midwest and Great Lakes.
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:29 AM |
|
|
|
Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect
|
Question - where is the NHC getting the updates? The last vortex fix I have on the NHC track .vs. fix (from SWFMD's web page at http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html) still shows 904mb and a track right on the projected path.
A 20+ mph drop in windspeed would be associated with significant pressure rise....
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:31 AM |
|
|
|
Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect
|
The Mayor of Biloxi, A.J. Holloway, was just on FNC about 10-15 minutes ago. He said he had just heard that the winds had dropped from 160 to 140. FNC is trying to corrobarate that information, but I seriously doubt that the Mayor would go on TV saying that without being absolutely positive.
A Cat 4 is nothing to play with, but it's sure a hell of a lot better than 175mph.
| Trekman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:31 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Is she strenghtening again
|
TORNADO WARNING FOR DESTIN FLORIDA UNTIL 10 PM MOVEMENT TO THE NORTHWEST
As of 942pm the tornado warning has been cancelled. Doppler radar evidently thought it saw a rotation, but then could not find it in subsequent sweeps. Okaloosa county is very awake now
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:32 AM |
|
Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect
|
Max Mayfield is coming on CNN, If anyone wants to see what he has to say.
Also, I agree that the NHC should look at the pressure, still the cold water could help this out alot (To Slow it)
Also dry air is building in western Louisana.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:32 AM |
|
|
Local Met. on weakening
|
Based on the latest analysis of the upper air and moisture and wind field ahead of dangerous Hurricane Katrina.. There appears to be dry air and more southwesterly shear across the area of approach for Katrina. This could weaken Katrina somewhat as even the satellite enhancement is beginning to show some raggedness to the north. This is the area where the dry air aloft is located and the upper southwesterly shearing winds are located analyzied on the didgiatamosphere program I have plotted here.
So several things that could weaken Katrina is dry air aloft to it's north and west of approaching katrina. Also the rapid change to a more baroclinical type air mass with polar westerlies already pushing rapidly as has been the last few days south and east from the Middle of the U.S.
Let's hope and pray that the hurricane coninues to weaken before landfall. The latest recon data shows the beginning signs of the weakening effects from what I described above. The enhanced colorized satellite picture shows the raggedness on the outer northern circulation of Katrina..this is some evidence of the more unfavorable environment.
I am crossing my fingers that Katrina weakens enough it would not be surprising that it weakens rapidly too and joggles east a bit bumping into the dry air to the north and west and stronger soutwesterlies now over the deep south.
| jth |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:32 AM |
|
Mayor of Biloxi was mistaken I believe
|
I think he corrected himself upon questioning by Geraldo and said that it would be great if Kat would come in at 140mph. I would be very surprised with that kind of a change in strength.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:32 AM |
|
Re: Is she strenghtening again
|
NO. Unfortunately guys, it's not weakening. If anything it actually appears to be strengthening. Intensity is still 140 kts. The mayor was wrong. He confused kts with mph. Storm is looking better on IR. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
Not likely at all to become cat 3.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:33 AM |
|
|
|
Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect
|
Actually the warmest water 32C is along the coast - especially along South LA shore.
here's the last clean (cloudless) shot
http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/05aug/gm_merged.n15.05aug21_1137.png
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:33 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Local Met. on weakening
|
you can always count on cnn to phuck up a live nhc broadcast...sorry
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:38 AM |
|
Re: Local Met. on weakening
|
Anyone have any cam links or hear anything about the SE Corner of Louisana. I feel they should be seeing some serious winds right now.
| WhitherWeather |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:38 AM |
|
Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect
|
904 mb is what it still says in the upper left here, too, and a nice reality check would be 904 vs. Camille. Factor in the size of Kat vs. Camille. Until the size and MB change significantly, I don't think that those whistling "Cat 3" past the waveyard are necessarily providing a useful service to those in the cone.
WhitherWeather
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:41 AM |
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Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect
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Quote:
still the cold water could help this out alot (To Slow it)
Also dry air is building in western Louisana.
Nate, there is no cold water. The storm is in the warmest eddy in the entire Atlantic basin.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:43 AM |
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Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect
|
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=BURL1
Southwest Pass, LA Station
28.90 N 89.43 W
about 90 miles from current COC
sustained 60kts (69mph)
gusts to 78kts (90mph)
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:44 AM |
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could be no one wants to believe this
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The mayor may have been hoping....cause he knows what this is gonna do......
yeah, when ya think about it...to go from 140 to 120 is a serious drop...SOMETHING would have to cause that....and nothing is....it's a huge freight train.
Andrew had these winds.....but was smaller.....
I'd like to think we're out of the woods...but we're not.
Interestingly...the last storms to hit when they go north....about 5 of them....all kicked right before finally hitting land...
Ivan did.
Opal did,
Dennis did
most of them kick right....there must be some sort of pressure gradient difference that causes the hurricanes to do that...
wonder why the models and forecaster don't pick it up...maybe it's a coincidence...don't know.
| WhitherWeather |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:47 AM |
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Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect
|
Re: "Nate. there is no cold water."
The met for one of the N.O. TV stations made a point this afternoon of pointing out that the water temperatures right off the coast around N.O. were 90-91--further saying that that's about as high as they get. He was comparing that to the 80-odd degree temps of the waters for an earlier hurricane that came through there (I think the one last year, but don't recall exactly).
WhitherWeather
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:48 AM |
Pray !
|
I pray for all people who left in effected area .
I am from central florida, originaly from Euroope, and i am here a little more then one year, just enough to get all Fla hurricanes, and i have some clue what this people have ...
GOD BLESS THEM ALL ...
Vladimir - Sebring
| collegemom |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:48 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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Goodnight from Arkansas. Temp already dropping here. Goodluck and Godspeed to all. Kevin
| G. J. |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:49 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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Rick,
I'm with you on that. I thought almost every hurricane moving n/nw will shift right just before landfall in the northern Gulf.?.?.?
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:49 AM |
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Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect
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Current SSTs are pretty uniform at 85º F. Getting the buoy data is iffy right now.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:50 AM |
|
Re: could be no one wants to believe this
|
11PM Coming out.
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the north central Gulf Coast
from Morgan City Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida
border...including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect from
east of the Alabama/Florida border to Destin Florida...and from
west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from Destin Florida
eastward to Indian Pass Florida...and from Intracoastal City
Louisiana westward to Cameron Louisiana.
Hurricane center located near 27.6n 89.4w at 29/0300z
position accurate within 10 nm
present movement toward the north-northwest or 335 degrees at 9 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 904 mb
Max sustained winds 140 kt with gusts to 170 kt.
64 kt....... 90ne 90se 50sw 80nw.
50 kt.......110ne 100se 75sw 100nw.
34 kt.......200ne 200se 150sw 180nw.
12 ft seas..325ne 250se 250sw 225nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
...Potentially catastrophic Hurricane Katrina continues to approach
the northern Gulf Coast...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the north central Gulf Coast
from Morgan City Louisiana eastward to the Alabama/Florida
border...including the city of New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.
A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect from
east of the Alabama/Florida border to Destin Florida...and from
west of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana.
A Tropical Storm Warning is also in effect from Destin Florida
eastward to Indian Pass Florida...and from Intracoastal City
Louisiana westward to Cameron Louisiana.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Katrina was located
near latitude 27.6 north...longitude 89.4 west or about 105 miles
south of the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 170 miles
south-southeast of New Orleans Louisiana.
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:54 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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does anyone see dry air getting to this on vapor.?
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 02:56 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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The NOAA hurricane hunters also reported an erosion of the eyewall
in the southwest quadrant. These observations suggest that there
could be some weakening of Katrina prior to landfall.
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:01 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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does the naked eye not show dry air coming in from southeast?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:01 AM |
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Re: Local Met. on weakening
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Sorry about the initial report of what the Mayor said..he was incorrect.
Geraldo is speaking to Major John Gordon who is flying recon: 145knts - 160mph. He said the best hope for weakening would be an EWRC just before landfall.
I'm not sure what Max Mayfield said on CNN, Phil, but the 140mph winds were from the Mayor of Biloxi.
The news channels have the worst timing for commercial breaks...here is Geraldo speaking to the guy who is flying IN THE EYE of Katrina and he cuts him off so we can all hear about how they are going to have CONTINUOUS coverage. ARGH!
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:01 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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Quote:
The NOAA hurricane hunters also reported an erosion of the eyewall
in the southwest quadrant. These observations suggest that there
could be some weakening of Katrina prior to landfall.
WWLTV Has it hitting land as a CAT 4.
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:04 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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Quote:
WWLTV Has it hitting land as a CAT 4.
i can't believe i'm saying this but...
let's hope...
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:06 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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Guys... minor fluctuations. Insignificant in the long run. Storm will NOT be below a 4. Even if it does weaken... which I don't think it will... the wind is far less significant than the location, as the flooding of New Orleans is the big story. The storm is strengthening. Not weaking. Recon pilot said they found 145 kt flight level winds. That's appx. 125 kt at surface. One last word: LOOK AT THE PRESSURE NOT THE WINDS. They cannot always "find" the winds that the pressure corresponds to. We need pressure to rise. The drop in wind speed does not always correspond to a weakening.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:08 AM |
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Re: Katrina Moves Northwest Still Forecast Toward New Orleans
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Debbie...that's exactly what I was afraid would happen. Seeing all those people still on the highways was like looking down the barrel of a gun. Now here's the question: where the heck are they going to go?
Newest track has it making landfall as a Cat 4, still in N.O.
| WhitherWeather |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:11 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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The met on WWL just expressed another view: that it appears that a second eye wall might be forming, with the possibility of a new redevelopment phase resulting in a new, tighter eye and possible strengthening just before landfall.
Just for equal time...
WhitherWeather
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:13 AM |
|
Satellite image !
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Not too much dry air around !!!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/WV/20.jpg
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:13 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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NHC Discussion
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:14 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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Yesterday the ERC lasted about 6 hours from first sign on sat until the new eye began to clear out, from 11am to 5pm. It is now 11pm. 5 am is before landfall, and we aren;t seeing the old eye cloud over. I'm personally concerned the ERC will finish before landfall with enough time to strengthen just before it hits.
Only morning will tell, and I'm going to sleep becuase I want to be able to get up to see this thing before landfall! --RC
| KATFIVE |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:16 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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I agree that the pressure is the most indicative thing. And I've been looking at the most recent IR loop and I don't see any evidence of eye wall erosion. It looks like this perfect circular thing. Further the water is extremely hot ahead of the storm, and it seems that it will strike perpendicular to the coast which in the case of previous strong storms (e.g. Andrew, Camille) has led to intensification at landfall. This thing remains incredibly dangerous and any incremental weakening is unlikely to enough to prevent major major damage.
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:17 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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The eyewall is also shrinking. I used a ruler to measure the width on water vapor loop frame by frame. the recon flight info of open on the SW was on the recon information we already had from 2345 UTC. My thinking is it doing ERC.
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:17 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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New vortex message is out and its right on the projected path:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
Right up the middle..... Pressure up 4mb though..... that's good news....
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:19 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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Information if you know of evacuees on the road. The florida Dept of Hwys. is shutting down thw I-10 bridge in Pensacola, the same one that washed away in Ivan. Those heading east need to exit at FL exit 5, US 90 and follow it Approx 15 miles to Avalon Blvd South in Santa Rosa County, between Pace and Milton, then back to I 10. We have lost power 3 times here in Gulf Breeze thus far. Boy am I glad I have a lantern.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:24 AM |
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Recon Info
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I thought that when Geraldo had on the Major that he DID say the pressure was up to 908mb. It was hard to hear him but this would correspond with the new recon data.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:28 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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Quote:
My thinking is it doing ERC.
Which is exactly what the Recon pilot said would be a saving grace for N.O. Let's hope that this happens. Anything, anything that helps to weaken this storm will be a blessing.
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:28 AM |
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Re: Recon Info
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Tornado warning now for Souther n New Orleans.
| WhitherWeather |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:29 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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Quote:
Pressure up 4mb though..... that's good news....
The new National Hurricane Center discussion says: "RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES" (Caps in original).
Could that account for the rise in mb--after which it could drop again?
It is good that it's gone up, but it's still in a rarified range.
I'll also quote this quote of note from the NHC discussion: "KATRINA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OF AT LEAST CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST" (Caps in original, bold added).
WhitherWeather
| BTfromAZ |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:30 AM |
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Re: Is she strenghtening again
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Quote:
ya'll might as well say it...hell...i'm done with any more edits tonight...post away about gas prices...
Assuming you mean that, I will try to say again what was deleted earlier, not because it's about gas PRICES but because it's about gas AVAILABILITY and may make what is a local disaster, however awful, into a national one. 30% of US gasoline is refined in the 12 or so refineries in the path of this storm. Also in the storm's path are 500,000 barrels per day of production and the only US oil terminal capable of offloading the largest oil tankers. The Mayor of New Orleans has said this is potentially a catastrophe for the country, not just for his city.
I personally love New Orleans. I go there every winter if I can and I really love it. I've also travelled all through the Mississippi and Alabama Gulf coast and while I don't want to see any of it destroyed, for the sake of the nation and the national economy, we will all be better off if the storm veers somewhat east and spares the oil industry in southern Louisiana. That's a fact.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:32 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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Quote:
Which is exactly what the Recon pilot said would be a saving grace for N.O. Let's hope that this happens. Anything, anything that helps to weaken this storm will be a blessing.
Unfortunately not. There is still time for the storm to have an ERC and come in strengthening, or regardless of if it doesn't strengthen the overall windfield will increase due to the ERC. It's a moot point anyways. I know we want to find solace in the little victories, but 5 or 4 it does not matter. New Orleans would be much better served by a jog to the NE than weakening to a four.
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:32 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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Quote:Quote:
Pressure up 4mb though..... that's good news....
The new National Hurricane Center discussion says: "RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT AN OUTER EYEWALL IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES" (Caps in original).
Could that account for the rise in mb--after which it could drop again?
It is good that it's gone up, but it's still in a rarified range.
I'll also quote this quote of note from the NHC discussion: "KATRINA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OF AT LEAST CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST" (Caps in original, bold added).
WhitherWeather
They said thi is exactly whats happening..
They also said it has enough water to re-intenisfy and for the pressure to drop.
I wouldnt read too much into this
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:36 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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It also slowed down, which means re-intensifing is likely
I hear one guy say the water temps on the coast is warm, another says there is a patch of colder water on the coast.
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:37 AM |
Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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What time is projected landfall?
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:37 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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Oh, I didn't read much into it, just that I suspect the folks over in NO will take every millibar they can get right now, and the more of them they get, the better it is.
With that said, I don't know that a 4 or 5 makes much difference, as has been noted. The flooding potential here is huge - does it really matter if your house is reduced to matchsticks or just the roof comes off if its filled with 15' of water?! I don't think so!
| Puig |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:37 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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I saw a MET on Fox news (Accuweather) where he was claiming that the winds in NO wont exceed 120 to 125mph. He says the worst of the storm will pass NO to the east. The MET actually wanted to be on the record to state the above. Did anyone else hear this as well? Seems like a hopeful prediction to me.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:38 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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I just doesn't have the appearance on satellite that it is undergoing an erc... I mean, I hope it does, but I hope it does in such a timely fashion that it landfalls during the weakening stage and doesn't have the opportunity to restrengthen.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:38 AM |
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being realistic..
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and looking at the loops.....there isn't really any real hope for New Orleans....the post by Big Red, I think...of a kick right..is their only hope....if you look at the path...the right side of the eyewall will pass over New Orleans.....it HAS to start kicking north and North East...or....what we all knew could happen...
is happening....
20,000 dead....maybe more
I hope that your decimal points were omitted!~danielw
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:41 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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Terra, I hope this si right too, but what scares me is the sudden decrease in forward speed from 13 to 10 MPH. This could really help intensify it.
120-125 MPH is still deadly and can cause extensive damage.. Im worried about sea surge in NO.
| BTfromAZ |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:42 AM |
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Re: I think the nhc has it pegged perfect
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I believe the big difference if it goes east of NO vs west has to do with the city's topography. Lake Pontchartrain being NORTH of the city, if it goes east of town, the winds will be from the north and drive the lake waters (and waves) into the levees, possibly over them, and into the city. If it were to go west of NO, the winds would be southerly and drive the lake water away from NO. Much of the damage and loss of life is likely to be from flooding and a passage west of NO could significantly diminish it.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:42 AM |
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Hurricane force winds
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are probably now hitting this station.
gusts 80-90mph
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=burl1&unit=E&tz=STN
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:45 AM |
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Re: Hurricane force winds
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Quick question...
WWLTV is goinf off the air at midnight and a station in Baton Rogue will pick up coverage.. Will it be aired?
| BTfromAZ |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:45 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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Yes, Puig, I heard it however my attention was most focused on his other prediction of substantial flooding in the city of NO in spite of his more easterly track.
By the way, I have been wondering through all this why I have yet to hear anyone (here or on TV) talk about the Bay St. Louis/Pass Christian area. They are so lovely and if Accuweather is correct, I think they could take the worst hit of all.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:50 AM |
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Re: being realistic..
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Quote:
and looking at the loops.....there isn't really any real hope for New Orleans....the post by Big Red, I think...of a kick right..is their only hope....if you look at the path...the right side of the eyewall will pass over New Orleans.....it HAS to start kicking north and North East...or....what we all knew could happen...
is happening....
20,000 dead....maybe more
I would not get into predicting deaths.God knows how many will perish and to throw out a number of 20,000 people dying is just not a good statement.
(I agree - lets not get into this kind of a discussion.)
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:50 AM |
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CNN reporter
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I was just watching CNN and they have a reporter riding out the storm in The French Quarter. Are rating more important than safety!!!
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:50 AM |
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God Help Those On The Gulf
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God be with all those on the gulf coast, and my heart goes out to all of you and your families safety. This news devestates me and i am not even down there, When Jim Cantore says this is the worst hes been in, there's gonna be problems. I am praying for you, all of you.
and TD#13 looks to be a fish spinner as of now, i hope, if it developes at all or anyhting developes..it has some sympathy on those who lost and will lose homes in the Gulf.
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:52 AM |
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Re: CNN reporter
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Quote:
I was just watching CNN and they have a reporter riding out the storm in The French Quarter. Are rating more important than safety!!!
I saw a report this afternoon and the reporter said they all had to sign waivers that the station wasnt responsible if they decided to stay after tonight.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:53 AM |
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Re: Hurricane force winds
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WWLTV is currently switching the base of operations from NO to Baton Rouge. Same station, different anchors. Should still be on the net. They're at LSU using a combo of students, WWL and KHOU personnel.
There are quite a few people riding it out in the Quarter in various hotel ballrooms
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:55 AM |
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Re: could be no one wants to believe this
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Waters are near 90 F along the coast; there is no colder water there, unless you go to the ocean floor (where even there, it's still warm).
The posts about gas prices were not deleted, they were just moved to a more appropriate forum.
The eyewall cycle may or may not complete before landfall. If the previous one is any indication, it will not. That may not be a saving grace for New Orleans, but every little bit helps.
A jog to the NE may not be the best thing for the city of New Orleans. A motion like that is going to pile all of the water in Lake Ponchatrain, only to have it sent southward towards the city as the storm passes by to the east on the west side of the circulation. While the west side of the circulation may be weaker, category 3 conditions are still being felt and these winds would likely be enough to take all of that water and topple the levees. A storm that passes over or just west of the city would be better for surge, but bring about stronger winds. Pick your poison, I guess.
Heading for bed, will update in the early am if need be. Stay safe, all.
i'd take the stronger winds. city splintered vs. city splintered slightly less and under water. -HF
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 03:55 AM |
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Re: Hurricane force winds
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yes it is thanks Shana...
Anyone watching the cams on Nola.com???
The Street cam is unreal right now with wind and rain.
| Disaster Master |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:06 AM |
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Re: Hurricane force winds
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http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?2
Unfortunately the destruction will be televised. The above link (power permiting) will show the flooding as it happends. My heart goes out to the people of New Orleans. The way FEMA and Local officials are talking N.O .may be a ghost town when this is all over. I work for the National Flood Insurance Program, I have seen towns along the mississippi turned into ghost towns. These towns where uninhabitable after the flooding. I hope this is not the case but im afraid it might be. N.O. you are in my familys prayers. God Bless you all. They are estimating 7600 people in the Super Dome. It is rated for 130mph. All of those folks need your prayers tonight. It is unclear what will be left tomorrow along the coast. God Bless you all.
| cjzydeco |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:08 AM |
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|
ERC?
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It seems to me that it has been forever since the last ERC, but someone earlier posted that there was one yesterday? Uhg. This storm has been going on for too long -- the days are starting to blur.
I just don't see the typical signature of an ERC. I keep looking, and there is certainly what looks like a double wall on radar, but I just don't see anything on IR or WV. I concur with earlier posts that if this is an ERC, it is happening too early and we may end up with a brief weakening phase before a reintensification right before landfall. Not trying to sound doomsday-ish. Just want any potential ERC's to hold off a few more hours.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:08 AM |
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Re: Hurricane force winds
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They've been saying all day that the Superdome is rated for 200 mph winds and they don't expect it to flood.
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:12 AM |
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Re: Hurricane force winds
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Richard Knabb of NHC was just on CNN and said that Kat was still on forecast track and also said 160 mph wind speed. Said both twice.
| Disaster Master |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:12 AM |
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Re: Hurricane force winds
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It is rated for 130mph. It is in the middle of downtown N.O. . Ive been there several times to watch Ricky Williams when he was with the Saints. Its hard to beleive that that is the only structure in N.O. (below sea level) that will not flood. I'll try and fing the article i read earlier stating the 130mph rating. Will post it in a few mins
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:13 AM |
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Re: Hurricane force winds
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FOX Just said looked like its weakening..., Lets hope.
Im having probelsm getting WWLTV to play. Did they get knocked off?
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:15 AM |
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Re: Hurricane force winds
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Terra- I heard it has been tested for up to 130mph the Mayor said it would hold up to 200mph but it has not been tested at that speed
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:16 AM |
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Re: Hurricane force winds
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Not that I doubt you read that.. but, I googled superdome hurricane winds and found this site:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/weather/july-dec98/georges_9-28.html
that does say 200 mph winds... I just have to believe this is true and the city wouldn't lie to so many citizens.
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:17 AM |
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Re: Hurricane force winds
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CNN and MSNBC both have said it is rated for 200 mph. They also said that emergency personal said they expect the playing field to be flooded by morning. The last video still showed people on the field but they were slow filing up into the stands
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:18 AM |
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Re: Hurricane force winds
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Very little is ever engineered beyond 130mph - except for hardened military installations.
That doesn't mean it won't hold. Many homes that are built to 110mph windload codes hold at 130 - witness Ivan, where many did, with only shingle and tarpaper loss.
But within the eyewall is often embedded tornadic activity that radically drives the gust levels up, and sustained 160s can lead to gusts north of 200.
Bottom line is that nobody knows for a fact if it will hold, but its the best bet that people who can't get out have. When your alternative is a home or business that you have every reason to believe WILL fail, you take what you can get.
The only way to know that a structure of this kind WILL hold in that sort of wind is for it to happen. You can engineer for it, but even if you do, there's no guarantee that the construction meets the engineering specifications.
May God be with everyone still in NO and spare a human tragedy. Property can be replaced.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:19 AM |
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FEMA Preparing
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I don't know if this is totally true but i had this passed along to me by a friend of mine.
FEMA is expecting:
1 million (yes, million) homeless for the next year as a result of this storm
50,000 dead
NO underwater for 8 months
Engineers have put it at 60/40 that the Superdome even survives this storm (yes, do the math on those inside if the 40% turns out to be right)
Army Corps of Engineers says subtract 3 ft. from all the levee heights you've heard on the news - the levees were built in the 60s, and avg. subsistation in La. since then adds up to the levees "settling" approximately 3.5 ft. lower than their stated heights
FEMA has put half its man power available nationwide on standby for the aftermath
| Disaster Master |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:19 AM |
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Re: Hurricane force winds
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http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl092304thanh.1295648.html
Her you go. About the 4th paragraph down. It wasnt the City that was stretching the truth. Media.... Go figure.
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:20 AM |
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Re: Hurricane force winds
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Quote:
Not that I doubt you read that.. but, I googled superdome hurricane winds and found this site:
http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/weather/july-dec98/georges_9-28.html
that does say 200 mph winds... I just have to believe this is true and the city wouldn't lie to so many citizens.
Here is a link from New Orleans that sayd 130 MPH.
http://www.wwltv.com/local/stories/wwl092304thanh.1295648.html
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:23 AM |
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Re: FEMA Preparing
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Quote:
I don't know if this is totally true but i had this passed along to me by a friend of mine.
FEMA is expecting:
1 million (yes, million) homeless for the next year as a result of this storm
50,000 dead
NO underwater for 8 months
Engineers have put it at 60/40 that the Superdome even survives this storm (yes, do the math on those inside if the 40% turns out to be right)
Army Corps of Engineers says subtract 3 ft. from all the levee heights you've heard on the news - the levees were built in the 60s, and avg. subsistation in La. since then adds up to the levees "settling" approximately 3.5 ft. lower than their stated heights
FEMA has put half its man power available nationwide on standby for the aftermath
I fing it hard to believe that a organization like FEMA that is suppose to be helping people would make a statemnt on predicting how many people would die.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:23 AM |
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Re: FEMA Preparing
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Superdome:
Last went through wind model tests at 130. Since then, downtown NO has been built up/changed creating what are essentially wind corridors - completely invalidating any tests.
The 200 mph figure was the raw paper number when it was originally drawn up in the 70s.
As I iterated earlier - it truly is a "last resort" place to evac. My prayers are with everyone there, and honestly, I don't believe it's going to hold up nearly as well as people are hoping. Regardless of the numbers FEMA is giving out, I really hope and pray that we only see a fraction of that. Even half of their estimates would be nothing short of a miracle.
YMMV SPSFD
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:24 AM |
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Re: Hurricane force winds
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WWLTV seems to be having bandwidth probs. WDSU.com is doin a combo with a NO station - up and broadcasting
They are saying 3 nursing home residents passed away on the bus from NO to Baton Rouge ...
Earlier I caught an interview w the guy running the Superdome. He said it WILL flood .. -14 sealevel. I read they don't really know what wind it will support because of the new buildings near there can cause a wind tunnel effect. There are about 30,000 people there now
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:29 AM |
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Re: FEMA Preparing
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Yeah, consider 10,000 people in a building when power is lost and all that's left is the emergency generator - which runs on diesel fuel, and probably has a relatively short (hours) supply. This assumes the generator is not damaged or destroyed by either wind or innudation, and the electrical panels and distribution system in the stadium isn't located down low where it is subject to flooding and subsequent short-circuits. Oh yeah, the dome has no outside light entry, so when its dark, its REALLY dark. As in CAVE dark. Once the diesel quits all you have left is the battery-powered emergency lights.
Now add to this the loss of lift stations and water pressure into the stadium. You now have 10,000 people in a stadium with limited electrical power, no toilet facilities, and hundreds of thousands of gallons of fetid water on the field.
It certainly beats being in a building that is knocked flat and then innudated by 20' of water.... but I wouldn't call it an ideal place to evacuate to!
| Disaster Master |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:29 AM |
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Re: Hurricane force winds
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I've been in conference calls all day with my superiors with FEMA. There is conflicting information coming from everywhere. FEMA is expecting fatality #'s in excess of 10,000 . In a perfect world everyone has gas money and a dependable vehicle. This is not the case in N.O. I just got word that the superdome has 36750 souls inside of it. It is below sea level. 40 ft waves 14ft below sea level. do the math. this will be ugly.
| age234 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:30 AM |
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Re: FEMA Preparing
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Those numbers on FEMA's expectations, I have heard similar ones several times today on FNC, and that the 'Dome is expected to flood.
(edit) The estimate af 50,000 dead comes from a NHC official, based on a landfalling Cat 5 on its current path (said it again on FNC at 12:54am ET)
They're talking massive refugee camps in northern LA, west TX, and surrounding areas, where people may have to live for weeks or even months. The FEMA rep they were interviewing said there are FEMA camps (of sorts) in FL where people are still living from hurricanes some time ago (maybe years, not 100% on that).
And Accuweather is saying on the record that 50-75% of NO will be flooded.
Long time lurker, first time poster.
| Saint Taz |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:30 AM |
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Re: Hurricane force winds
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For WWL TV goto www.khou.com. It is WWL sister station in Houston and is streaming WWL.
| Disaster Master |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:33 AM |
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Re: FEMA Preparing
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I was in Punta Gorda the day after. Spent almost 8 months in FL last year for 4 canes. There are trailer parks full of trailers and tents still in that area. Red Cross still serving 3 meals a day.
Tent cities in Miami after "the Almighty One" where absolutely terrible. Spent many days tracking people down in those camps.
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:41 AM |
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Re: FEMA Preparing
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Was it possible to raise the levees to higher levels or was this city always living on borrowed time? It was inevitable that a storm would eventually hit, I just can't figure out why FEMA's own models show such casualties and destruction and nothing was done about it.
| age234 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:44 AM |
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Re: FEMA Preparing
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AFAIK the levees aren't even finished yet. They were shooting for a 2018 completion date, if I remember right. But with the damage that is coming, who knows?
| Disaster Master |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:44 AM |
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Re: FEMA Preparing
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Army Crp has been filling in the voids in the leeve for 3 days. There is only so much they can do. This is a 4 day GOM storm. Not much warning for a project that would take a year to complete.
| palmetto |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:46 AM |
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Re: FEMA Preparing
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I recently read in an issue of Popular Science that there was a plan to build new levees and flood walls to protect the city, but I don't think it ever got off the ground.
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:47 AM |
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Re: FEMA Preparing
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I should add that the long range New Orleans radar still shows a west of north movement and the center is almost due south of the city. If the center goes west of the city at least the wind won't push the water directly back into the city, which I guess will only help if the surge itself doesn't flood the city.
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:48 AM |
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Re: FEMA Preparing
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If it goes west of the city, that leave sthe city of that north eastern side. That is the worse side of the storm.
| Disaster Master |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:49 AM |
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Re: FEMA Preparing
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Pick your poison. 165mph winds or 30ft storm surge. east you get one. West you get the other. What would you rather have?
| Disaster Master |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:51 AM |
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Re: FEMA Preparing
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Hurricane force winds are now on land. Eye of storm is expected to make landfall around 8am eastern time on monday.
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:53 AM |
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Re: FEMA Preparing
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I'd take my chances with the wind. If the bowl fills up everything is pretty much destroyed. The storm could be weaker if it's over land longer which it would be on a more westward tack.
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:53 AM |
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Re: FEMA Preparing
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Honestly I see the Eye hitting land sooner then 8AM, Maybe around 5-7 AM..
Where is WDSU airing from?
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:55 AM |
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Re: FEMA Preparing
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Everglades, it's an optical illusion
New Orleans is 89.9W and the west edge of eyewall is 89.75W
COC is 89.5W 27.9N and is about 165 miles from NO
north edge of eye is 55 miles from land
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lix_long.shtml
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:55 AM |
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Re: FEMA Preparing
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Max Mayfield is being unusally somber about this system, stating "New Orleans May never be the Same". I hate to agree with him, but I don't think this possible Eyewall Cycle is going to do much to stop it.
God Bless everyone who decided to stay in New Orleans. If areas flood, get to the highest ground, but remember animals, and insects will also be trying to get there. Beware of snakes, balls of fire ants, and more fighting for the same spots.
Hope for a miracle tonight, I don't see any good news right now.
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 04:56 AM |
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Re: FEMA Preparing
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Quote:
Those numbers on FEMA's expectations, I have heard similar ones several times today on FNC, and that the 'Dome is expected to flood.
They're talking massive refugee camps in northern LA, west TX, and surrounding areas, where people may have to live for weeks or even months. The FEMA rep they were interviewing said there are FEMA camps (of sorts) in FL where people are still living from hurricanes some time ago (maybe years, not 100% on that).
And Accuweather is saying on the record that 50-75% of NO will be flooded.
Long time lurker, first time poster.
I can confirm that FEMA "camps" still exist in Florida. Many people have been unable to recover money from insurance companies, or cannot afford to rebuild. FEMA kept threatening to shut down the "camps" but didn't know what to do with the thousands of families still living in them.
They are very small white mobile homes, squeezed in tightly together in barren areas that were once cow pastures. Not a pretty sight or a nice place to be.
I'm not sure how many of them there are, but I do know there is still a very large camp near Port Charlotte. These people were Charley survivors from August 13, 2004.
-Bev
| heynow |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 05:00 AM |
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Re: FEMA Preparing
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Here in South Louisiana we have been begging for help. We have been pleading for years to finish I49 into New Orleans, thus giving a much needed additional evac route. The real problem is that there is only one major road in and out of NO. The other thing we have been begging for is the restoration of our wetlands, which act as a buffer.
Of course, the immense poverty and the fact that the city has the fundamental flaw of being below sea level considerably contributes to the dire predictions, but we have been proactively seeking some remedies. Unfortunately, our requests have fallen on deaf ears.
I really don't think the rest of the country understands how vital New Orleans is to our nation. Unfortunately, we are about to find out how vital the city is.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 05:02 AM |
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Re: FEMA Preparing
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I think at this point the only thing we can do is pray for a miracle. May God protect those in harms way and know that we are all praying and thinking of all of you in the path of this storm.
| Anton Ross |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 05:10 AM |
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Toxicity and Envorinmental dangers
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All,
Someone mentioned "fetid" water inside the dome? I'll go one further and raise the reality of floodwaters from the east bearing toxic waste from the Industrial Canal area, and from the west, floodwaters might be flowing through the Norco Industrial Complex (with refineries and chemical plants)...and all of these facilities will likely suffer catastrophic failure.
Looks like on top of the straight "damage" the Crescent City will have to deal with, there may likely be severe air and water pollution as well from all the chemicals being blown out.
It's been a few years since I was down there, but I spent a lot of time in 1989-1991 (I was in School in Pensacola, girlfriend was in Law School in NO) and I seem to remember that the gas stations all had above-ground tanks? I can just imaging those being knocked down and blown open...potential fire danger with fuel floating on top of flood waters...
I think this may get as nasty as some of the FEMA people have mentioned off-hand.
Katrina is bad enough on her own, but the area around N'ahlins is pretty toxic if not contained properly.
Oy.
/Anton in Charleston
| Disaster Master |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 05:16 AM |
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Re: Toxicity and Envorinmental dangers
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From experience in cleaning such tanks in my younger years, ill say that the valve side of those tanks are the heaviest. They will flip and spill if the water gets high enough. I experienced the same with fuel oil tanks in Shady Side Maryland after Hurricane Isabel. Completely coated everything in fuel oil. Houses where tworn down due to fire hazard after being soaked for a week in water with a 3 inch layer of fuel oil on top.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 05:17 AM |
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Re: Toxicity and Envorinmental dangers
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I agree Anton, people have no idea what is in store for us. I have my own hypothesis of what the results of Katrina will be. Simply put, people need to read the studies that abound online about a storm such as this and steel themselves.
I have read about this particular disaster for years, but one thing that I did not realize until earlier that their is a nuclear plant in the N.O. area.
Nuke Plant Info
Brace yourself folks. This is going to be nasty.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 05:19 AM |
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Wind Fields
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This is an image of the near real-time wind field of Major Hurricane Katrina. Courtesy of the crews and staff at the Hurricane Research Division. Who, by the way, have been providing a lot of the data and updates this afternoon and evening. Along with the regular updates from the AFRES Hurricane Hunters.
This is only an example of the wind fields as they were sampled at that time and Does Not reflect prsent or Future wind fields.
However...since there is a Strong Probablility that Major Hurricane Katrina will be at the current wind profile as she makes landfall.
This should serve as a rough guide, Only!
http://cat5.nhc.noaa.gov/Hwind/AnalysisOutput.html
| ohioaninmiss |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 05:19 AM |
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Re: Toxicity and Envorinmental dangers
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I just saw a report on MSNBC that they shut down and evacuated the nuclear power plant...
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 05:25 AM |
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Re: Toxicity and Envorinmental dangers
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I wouldn't worry too much about the structural integrity of the nuclear plants.
There are two things that alleviate the flow of radioactivity: very thick concrete and lead. These things are extraordinarily thick concrete construction, and in relatively areodynamic shapes. Due to the cooling needs of the reactors, they will also have wonderful water tight door systems. Not to mention, plenty of controlled pressure environments - in short, they're Fort Knox.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 05:27 AM |
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Re: Toxicity and Envorinmental dangers
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No, I'm not worried about the structural integrity of the nuke plants either, they'll likely be fine. However it certainly adds another interesting wrinkle to the story.
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 05:28 AM |
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Re: Toxicity and Environmental dangers
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Waterford is for a beautiful table. Not supposed to be a vehicle of possible death and destruction. It seems to look worse and worse as more info. comes out on the storm and the region.
I'm with Anton on this. Oy Vay...
I pray for all and my friends just to the east of Easy.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 05:29 AM |
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Re: Toxicity and Envorinmental dangers
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URNT12 KNHC 290525
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/04:49:20Z
B. 27 deg 53 min N
089 deg 31 min W
C. 700 mb 2314 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 283 deg 116 kt
G. 195 deg 014 nm
H. 910 mb
I. 14 C/ 3018 m
J. 21 C/ 3007 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C28
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 2012A KATRINA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 134 KT SE QUAD 0249Z
Latest recon.... closed wall.... hmm.... pressure seems up
| Disaster Master |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 05:29 AM |
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Re: Toxicity and Envorinmental dangers
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80-90mph wind in Grand Isle at this time. Red you are correct. The scope of this event is off the charts. Everyone in the country was glued to the television on 9-11-2001. Tomorrow will be the same. I fear that the loss of life will be much greater. It makes me think about the 70's . Along the Mississippi in the 70's companys used to spray oil waste on the dirt roads to keep the dust down during dry summers. Doing a simple Google search will expose alot of info that people do not know about. There are towns that where evacuated and fenced off due to chemical contamination alone. These are now ghost towns. Still fenced off by the Corp of Eng. Search : Mississipi River ghost towns . Ill call my father who is a GA for the National Flood Insurance Program for the names of towns and post in a few minutes.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 05:35 AM |
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Re: Toxicity and Envorinmental dangers
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just a heads up... right now as of 12:35cdt... two very tornadic cells offshore of MS, moving wnw...very quickly....
one 18-20 miles southeast of gulfport...headed towards that area....
other farther off.....
will try to post pix soon
update: moving towards gulfport MS pix time 12:31:10am cdt
radar winds mobile
web link to radar
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lix.shtml
click on Storm Relative (winds) and look for areas where the green and red are tight together... like a ball...
expect if not already warning for that area ..... (tornado)
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 05:39 AM |
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Tornadoes
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If you loop that Velocity Product...it looks as if one pass over Ship and Cat Island toward Slidell Radar. And the last frame is showing two smaller cells off shore moving toward East New Orleans or Orleans Parish.
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 05:44 AM |
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Re: Tornadoes
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watch the streetcar cam at www.nola.com
http://www.nola.com/bourbocam/
its going nuts, alot of lights fkashing.. Trees blowing over.
| Anton Ross |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 05:50 AM |
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Re: Toxicity and Envorinmental dangers
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TWC just now started a story about the flooding dangers...but only "briefly" touched on the issues of toxic wastes and other chemical factors.
But man...everything that the storm surge pushes "in" to the downtown are is going to be stuck there. For a while. Levees will keep just as much in as out. I know jokes have been made about snakes and bugs and excrement floationg around...but man, with all of the sanitation plants under water and the petro-chemicals floating around...this may turn into the biggest toxic waste dump in the country. Perhaps the world?
It is only now really hitting me that the physical damage is probably going to be eclipsed by the environmental damage.
And anyone who knows NO will understand that once the emergency crews do come in, navigating will be almost impossible without really good GPS gear. Street signs gone...water two-three stories high...this is certainly going to challenge the crews.
Man...sort of unthinkable...all of this.
/Oy and Vey.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 05:50 AM |
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Re: Tornadoes
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I can see it now that you mention those barrier islands.
Just got back home and ready for the waiting game.
It's strange to see everything flying across the radar so fast when I'm used to watching the derechos that approach the Twin Cities area.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 05:51 AM |
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Re: Tornadoes
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update to cells... should come ashore west of gulf port...more towards bay saint louis or maybe farther west...they are moving more west than north...they appear to be weakening now...would est. in the next 15-25mins ashore or near shore.... of course this are will be busy will cells like this for the next 8-14hrs.
| royener |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 05:57 AM |
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Re: Wind Fields
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The wind speeds and direction from station BURL 1 - South west pass, LA at midnight were showing wind speed of 73 kts with gusts up to83 kts and the pressure tendency to be falling rapidly
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=burl1
station 42383 Mars MC 807 further south seems to have been evacuated or shut down it is a Shell platform
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42363
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 06:00 AM |
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Re: Tornadoes
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acorrding to radar: farthest tip of "land" of LA is only 25-35 miles away from northern eyewall....
edge of center now starting to show up on 124nm scan of radar : 12:53am cdt
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 06:02 AM |
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Re: Tornadoes
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SXUS54 KLIX 290535
OSOLIX
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS OBSERVATIONS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1235 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2005
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS OBSERVATIONS
RECEIVED DURING THE LAST HOUR
WIND AIR DEW WTR WTR
STATION DIR SPD PEAK TMP PT TMP LVL PRES
EAST LAKE 48 24 38 79 85
MID LAKE 27 21 28 80 86 2.88
MANDEVILLE 47 15 23 79 75 999.8
WEST LAKE 33 31 40 83 87
LITTLE WOODS 30 13
http://kamala.cod.edu/la/latest.sxus54.KLIX.html
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 06:04 AM |
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Tide Data
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...LOUISIANA COASTAL TIDE DATA FOR...MON AUG 29 2005
CALCASIEU PASS...LIGHTHOUSE WHARF
HI 2 45 AM STAGE 2.4 LO 6 42 PM STAGE 0.0
SHELL ISLAND...ATCHAFALAYA BAY
HI 5 53 AM STAGE 1.8 LO 7 27 PM STAGE 0.0
BARATARIA PASS...GRAND ISLE
HI 6 31 AM STAGE 1.7 LO 6 08 PM STAGE 0.0
RIGOLETS...LAKE BORGNE
HI 8 44 AM STAGE 1.4 LO 8 49 PM STAGE 0.0
SOUTHWEST PASS...MISSISSIPPI RIVER
HI 4 41 AM STAGE 1.8 LO 4 36 PM STAGE 0.0
WINE ISLAND...TERREBONNE BAY
HI 6 39 AM STAGE 1.8 LO 7 20 PM STAGE 0.0
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 06:05 AM |
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Re: Tornadoes
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Wow, that's close. Not that it really matters too much in the scheme of things, but it looks like the ERC may not be able to complete before landfall. Small solace. Those poor people.
| Anton Ross |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 06:05 AM |
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Re: Toxicity and Envorinmental dangers
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I just did some light reading about the fact that NO has built up a lot of its areas on top of former dumps.
Toxic dumps....
SNIP
"In 1994, Blanco's home, 66 others, and 221 townhouses were officially declared a superfund site. Since that time, the Environmental Protection Agency has been battling with homeowners over how to handle the problem. Then this spring, the EPA launched its $20 million cleanup plan, a plan that residents reject as unsafe. When initial tests were conducted, the primary toxin found was lead, but 149 other pollutants were also identified. Carl Edlund, EPA chief of the Superfund branch now cleaning up the neighborhood, says testing showed 17 feet of toxins that became more toxic the deeper they dug."
Read More: http://www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/environment/jan-june99/epa_6.21.html
This gets uglier and uglier...not just from the human cost, but the impact on the land itself (which of course impacts humans).
Don't know what else to say about this...
/Oy. Vey. Oy. Vey.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 06:07 AM |
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Re: Tide Data
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If I'm reading those correctly Danny, this storm is hitting at high tide?
Storm surge + wave height + high tide= _____
Wow, I did not realize this. Is there typically a big tidal fluctuation in the MS/LA area? Or is the difference between high and low normally negligible?
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 06:14 AM |
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Re: Tide Data
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CNN reported that SouthWest Pas had A gust of 101.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 06:16 AM |
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Re: Tide Data
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Quote:
If I'm reading those correctly Danny, this storm is hitting at high tide?
Storm surge + wave height + high tide= _____
Wow, I did not realize this. Is there typically a big tidal fluctuation in the MS/LA area? Or is the difference between high and low normally negligible?
Not in Jackson Cty, MS where the difference between high and low tide is at most a couple feet...but yes I checked earlier today, only for that area, and I think high tide was around 9am-ish.
| Anton Ross |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 06:18 AM |
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Line of Traffic?
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Anyone else notice that there is still a streaming line of residents trying to get out of the general area? (CNN live update, WX Live Update)
Granted, some of the roads are pretty high up above the city itself, but they don't seem to be making much progress?
That is somewhat disconcerting?
I hope I am seeing old images.
/Anton
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 06:19 AM |
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expectations
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i'm a little confused by people posting that 50K people are going to die. if FEMA was talking like that, wouldn't it be all over the major networks? sketchy also on the intensity forecast now. it does look like the track is on, but i'm watching the inner core on radar (satellite eclipse for now) and it does look like an ERC or just plain ol' erosion is taking place, especially on the SE side of the inner core. now, if at sunup tomorrow the appearance is solid annular, yeah, i'll know the worst is on its way. but i sense the fairy godmother, if you know what i mean.
now, as for N.O. being flooded.. i'm not going to argue that. yes, it's going to flood. a lot of the city will be under a lot of water. as for the people in the superdome... not sure the roof will fail. they'll need cat 4 winds, and that isn't a certainty. i'm betting N.O. winds will peak around 120mph late morning tomorrow. worse east of the city and from slidell to gulfport, surely... but N.O. will probably get the west side. also not sure how many people are playing chicken and staying behind in the city. a lot of the older architecture is going to get destroyed, so hopefully not too many people were dumb enough to stay in that. i'm sure they got folks out of the areas to be totally submerged.. that just leaves people in a very windy version of venice, i guess.
i think this hurricane will probably kill more people than any in recent years, but the huge numbers some of y'all are fronting.. nah, just can't see that happening. local and government authorities aren't going to let that happen.
okay, i've said my piece. hope i wake up to less of a hurricane tomorrow.
HF 0620z29august
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 06:20 AM |
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Re: Tide Data
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42040 B 0550Z 29.18N -88.21W 103nm 41deg(NE) of center
wind from 100deg at46.6kts gusts to 58.3kts wave ht 40.0feet 13sec period - - baro29.20 -0.18tend AirT81.7 SeaT84.6 DewPt79.7 -
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42040
| komi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 06:29 AM |
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Satellite Image !
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Photo for history:
http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goeseast/hurricane/color/0000_latest.jpg
Table breaking Image removed[ -- this is the same in the upper right corner.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 06:32 AM |
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Re: Tide Data
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heard a report early this afternoon. est height of waves near center.....65-70ft high.... will try to find text information to confirm..... new orleans should be getting hammered right now with high winds from cells and feeder band coming through
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 06:39 AM |
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Re: Tide Data
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hurricane force winds now ashore
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=burl1
**Note: this report is more than 1:30 old...last report from station.~danielw
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 06:39 AM |
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Winds
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KMSY...New Orleans Int'l Airport isn't reporting.
KNEW is Lakefront Airport on the South Shore of Lake Ponchartrain.
KASD is Slidell Airport. Near NWS OFFICE.
Conditions at: KNEW observed 0623 UTC 29 August 2005
Temperature: 26.0°C (79°F)
Dewpoint: 24.0°C (75°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.35 inches Hg (994.0 mb)
Winds: from the NE (40 degrees) at 47 MPH (41knots; 21.3 m/s) gusting to 59 MPH (51 knots; 26.5 m/s)
Visibility: 0.75 miles (1.21 km)
Ceiling: 2100 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 400 feet AGL broken clouds at 2100 feet AGL overcast cloud deck at 2900 feet AGL
Weather: +RA BR (heavy rain, mist)
SOME DATA ABOVE MAY BE INACCURATE!!!
"$" is an indication the sensor requires maintenance/
Conditions at: KASD observed 0624 UTC 29 August 2005
Temperature: 25.0°C (77°F)
Dewpoint: 23.0°C (73°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.43 inches Hg (996.7 mb)
Winds: from the NE (40 degrees) at 18 MPH (16 knots; 8.3 m/s) gusting to 30 MPH (26 knots; 13.5 m/s)
Visibility: 4 miles (6 km)
Ceiling: 1900 feet AGL
Clouds: scattered clouds at 100 feet AGL overcast cloud deck at 1900 feet AGL
Weather: -RA BR (light rain, mist)
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 06:43 AM |
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Re: Winds
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URNT12 KNHC 290631
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/05:34:50Z
B. 28 deg 02 min N
089 deg 34 min W
C. 700 mb 2329 m
D. NA kt
E. 000 deg 000 nm
F. 326 deg 121 kt
G. 209 deg 020 nm
H. 910 mb
I. 12 C/ 3027 m
J. 21 C/ 3013 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 2012A KATRINA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 134 KT SE QUAD 0249Z
oh yeah i was thinking it was 1:00 now....opps!
based on radar... winds should be in 120-140 now in that area!
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 06:45 AM |
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Re: Tide Data
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Yeah I checked that when I got home about an hour ago and they were running almost that high then, but what I thought was interesting was the wave steepness was still only average - just really really high running seas.
Now it looks like they are starting to go from 'average' to 'steep.'
Looks like the additional recon showed consistent info...intensity did inch down, but nothing more than that. Does it appear they will be dropping the sustained windspeed on the 2am?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 06:57 AM |
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Re: Tide Data
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sats back....look at west side..... land appears to be affecting her now.... she may begin to weaken some
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 06:58 AM |
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Re: Tide Data
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And they did drop the winds to 155 at the 2am.
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 07:03 AM |
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Re: Tide Data
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very good news, plus the forward speed incresed to 12 MPH to the north. this means it wont have that much of a chance to intensify, maybe even decrease further.Possible CAT 3?
| bobbutts |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 07:06 AM |
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Weakening and Heading North
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Based on satellite and radar the west side of this storm is falling apart and the motion is 350-360 deg. Really good news for NO at least for the wind effects as I suspect the city will see around 100mph sustained as they should be at least several miles from the W eyewall. I'm not qualified to guess on the flooding (not that I was qualified to guess the wind either), but obviously the weakening will lessen the effects.
As I write, the NHC update confirms the turn to the north and weakening to cat 4..
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 07:09 AM |
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Re: Tide Data
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from what i can tell dry air got in on the west side inflow... i would expect mid cat 4 by time it passes New Orleans, now...maybe high cat 3.... I don't think the a ERC saved the area.... think dry air got into her. this area may fill in, but i think highly unlikely....
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 07:10 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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Quote:
Based on satellite and radar the west side of this storm is falling apart and the motion is 350-360 deg. Really good news for NO at least for the wind effects as I suspect the city will see around 100mph sustained as they should be at least several miles from the W eyewall. I'm not qualified to guess on the flooding (not that I was qualified to guess the wind either), but obviously the weakening will lessen the effects.
As I write, the NHC update confirms the turn to the north and weakening to cat 4..
I wouldnt say its falling apart, looks like some dry air maybe mixing in. Nnabb from the NHC said that it is still well developed and that it can still re-intensify.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 07:10 AM |
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Re: Tide Data
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So that explains the lopsided wind fields that danielw posted, and that would make sense since that is the part that is being fed with air from over land now. You could see it on radar but I wasn't sure if that was a true lack of precip on the SW or if the radar just couldn't see it that well at that distance.
Quite a change, but as you would expect the core still looks pretty solid.
If only this wasn't such a large storm...there is still going to be quite a lot of the core left on landfall even with the dramatic changes on the W side of the storm. And the E side, with the strong winds, will continue to be fed from the warm Gulf waters.
So is this what affects the motion and makes it go more east upon landfall? The storm becomes lopsided and so tends to be pulled from all the strong winds that are left on the east? I was wondering about this last night.
| Doombot! |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 07:17 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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It seems from the long range radar out of NO the there is now a slight east of north movement; I'd say 005 degrees. Good (late) night and good luck everyone.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 07:18 AM |
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Re: Tide Data
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on present course.....gulfport, ms should be real close to center.... atleast ne eyewall, later on in morning.
base ref. titl 1 on level 3 data...shooting lowest part of eyewall at 12700ft now
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 07:22 AM |
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Re: Tide Data
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recent storm relative velocity LIX....
http://stormhunter7.tripod.com/radar/lix.png
shear on second cell...one on right...100kts plus at 4000ft
| nate77 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 07:23 AM |
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Re: Tide Data
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Is it me or on NO long range radar the far southern tip of Louisana is near the eye wall?
| mightygringo85 |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 07:24 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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By the looks of the latest IR Image, it looks as if the dry slot is closing up. Maybe it's just me.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 07:27 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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west side of eyewall looks like its about to collapse
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 07:31 AM |
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More Data
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NOAA 3 is now airborne to augment AFRES 305 with the data.
My Local TV Met is also and change in the water vaopr imagery.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 07:31 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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URNT12 KNHC 290725
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/07:00:10Z
B. 28 deg 22 min N
089 deg 35 min W
C. 700 mb 2352 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 095 deg 122 kt
G. 356 deg 039 nm
H. EXTRAP 915 mb
I. 9 C/ 3028 m
J. 20 C/ 3011 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. OPEN SSE-SSW
M. C32
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.01 / 1 nm
P. AF305 2012A KATRINA OB 18
MAX FL WIND 134KT N QUAD 02:49:00 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
NO should come out better now i think.... she's going to weaken now i think... i think she on the down trend now....thanks to DRY AIR!
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 07:32 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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Regarding that drier air on the west between the core and the spiral band...
I went back and looked at the visual sat images before the nightly blackout, and that could be seen as early as 0215Z, and definitely by the 0315Z. Of course then it was on the E and NE sides of the storm. You can see it start to peel away in a sense.
And since that was being fed by the Gulf at the time I'm not sure what to attribute it to except being near land, and the storm being so large it needed to be totally surrounded by water in order to maintain a tight structure.
Anyway then during the blackout it rotated over the N side which was near or over land, and that is when it really deteriorated.
Going back to the 0045Z visual sat image the clouds above the core are symmetrical, like a donut. After that you could see the core of the storm start to break down into the spiraling bands on subsequent images.
So in spite of the large eye and solid small core around the eye, it doesn't appear to have an annular structure any more.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 07:42 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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Darn I was afraid of this (going from C30 to C32 and from closed to open, and so quickly).
The eyewall is expanding and this will continue, and the strongest winds which comprise the eastern eyewall, will migrate to the center of the MS Gulf Coast by landfall (Gulfport and Biloxi) instead of reaching only say to Waveland or west Bay St. Louis.
Earlier today I thought that the storm was going to turn eastward so that the east side of the eyewall would make landfall between Gulfport and Biloxi (and it is still too soon to tell if that can still occur or if the storm will track to the NHC predicted path). But this could be just as bad...say the storm stays close to the NHC track, but the eye, which is already so large, expands so that the worst part of the storm clobbers the entire MS Gulf Coast.
It now appears that if the storm tracks to the E of NO, they will be spared the highest winds and may not see any sustained winds much over 100mph. However this will still be enough to cause problems with flooding.
Edit -- the appearance of the eye on the 0645Z wv sat image is no longer round. Also the wv sat images shows just how significantly the western side of the storm has eroded. Since she's so large, I'm wondering now if we're not going to see her fall apart rather spectacularly and quickly.
The argument is usually made that change affects smaller hurricanes faster (well at least in the sense they might be able to spin up and spin down faster), but consider that with such a very large eye and with the core covering a larger area, it could be harder to maintain a stable structure close to land.
I'm wondering what's going to happen when that eroded west side spins around. As the storn spins around, the strong east side will go around the north, partly over land, and should also deteriorate. So when the already weak west side comes around, how much will it be rejuvinated by the Gulf waters before going over land again. I'm thinking that because the storm is so lopsided right now, this is going to be more of an issue than you'd normally assume. Also it's possible that it will never be able to get the eyewall closed again.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 07:42 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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looks like i see the eyewall breaking on the SSW side.... i bet thats dry air feeding into center at 15000ft or so..... i also would expect a change in track coming up.... a SLIGHT east shift i would think.....
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI5_wv_loop.gif
take a look at above WV....
| mightygringo85 |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 07:49 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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just saw the latest WSI Image on FNC eyewall has closed back up
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 07:52 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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recon reported open on on south side... that would take a while to fill back in... time is not on her side now.. she's about to make landfall on the coast line in SE part of LA... northern eyewall is less than 10miles from land/swamp area.
| mightygringo85 |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 07:54 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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WVTM's Live Doppler One Million shows eyewall has closed back up and dry spot is dissapearing
| mightygringo85 |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 08:02 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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According to FNC, Power going on and off in Downtown New Orleans
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 08:05 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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Out of curiosity.
I mapped out the coordinates for a theoretical track to landfall. It appears that Katrina has started her Northward motion. Using Vortex for the Lat/ Longs.
From 0631Z to 0725Z she moved 0.20minutes North and 0.01minutes West.
These are Aircraft minutes and not decimal points.
In decimal points the last fix would convert to N 28.03333 and W 089.58334.
Plotted due North this would approximate a 'theoretical' landfall about 7 miles S of Buras,LA or 12 miles SW of Boothville,LA.
If she were to continue a due North run/ track from that point. She would make a second landfall at or near the MS/LA border at the Pearl River. This is near Lake Borgne and just south of Pearlington,MS.
ALL of the above comments are based on a "theoretical" due north track and are not implied or forecast by NHC or the NWS.
They are purely...conjecture.~danielw
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 08:09 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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i give her credit, an outer feeder band is trying to flare back up in the dry air on the west to southwest side....just think time is running out now... i do think NO is in much better conditions now, they won't see nearly as bad as i thought they could have.... BUT the Gulfprt area, 20-30miles east or west.... is going to get the worst part. (STORM SURGE/WAVES and 100mph plus winds)...... i went with an AL/MS landfall with a 10mile east or west buffer...appears i didn't miss by much! i am not sure about eyewall beeing closed right now.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 08:09 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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Well its getting noisy here in Gulf Breeze, that all to familiar sound of the wind hitting the plywood outside the window. Hopefully she is weakiening a bit. I'm afraid that the small land area she will be crossing soon will not have that much effect since the srea is 80%. WV imagry seems to show a path just east of north. This will put the eye, even if it heads due north, east of the city which sits at roughly 90 degrees longitude, but makes an impact on the mississippi coast even more likely. She still has plenty of time left over water.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 08:13 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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tornado warning up north of hancock MS...cell near Bay saint louis from what i can tell...going right over city now
AT 304 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES EAST
OF BAY ST. LOUIS...MOVING WEST AT 55 MPH.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 08:16 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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I went back and looked at the map plot that I just referenced.
Center of storm was 85 miles off shore at the time of the last fix...based on a due north movement.
This would take Katrina over a few towns in the Lower Parishes, but mainly over marshy area with few trees.
In other words...not much to slow her winds...topographically. We would have to hope for dry air entrainment to take the 'wind' out of her.
The bad thing about her going up the East side of New Orleans is that I would think that she could push the MS River backwards in addition to pushing water into Lake Ponchartrain. I think I'll put that theory away. I don't like that thought.
***Note: WLOX TV Met just put up a track from his "Viper-like" computer with the same points that I had come up with. Then turning some toward the east after passing over the MS/LA border at the GOM/ Pearl River.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 08:21 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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Well that's not good for MS Gulf Coast. That's less than 10mi W of where Camille hit, and she was a much smaller storm. Even with just due N movement and no eastward component at all that puts the (remainder of?) the eastern eyewall right around Long Beach or Gulfport, and the remaining strongest winds from there to the MS/AL border.
However there is likely to be some eastward component to the movement, and in addition, migration of the eastern eyewall to the east as the eye expands and possibly even falls apart. So that moves the eastern eyewall even further east on the MS coastline.
Regarding my earlier post, it does appear that the remaining stronger bands on the east side of the storm are taking a big hit as soon as even the leading part of the band approaches land. In fact there even seems to be a kind of shock wave propagating effect down the band, reducing the water vapor along the entire length of the band that is still in the gulf, when even just one edge of the band comes in contact with land (0645Z to 0715Z wv sat images on floater).
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 08:33 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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wow another plane was able to get up and take off while Biloxi is getting hammered right now
URNT11 KNHC 290825
97779 08224 21291 91418 30400 02048 08088 /3997
RMK AF306 2112A KATRINA OB 01
two AF planes up... one nearing end.. not far to fly home though!
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 08:38 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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They aren't recovering to Keesler. That last plane up should be the last plane out of Keesler. Gulfport is reporting winds near 24mph right now...so it's not too bad.
I had a PM earlier that indicated the planes were recovering to a base in TX...which is normal for Hurricanes landfalling near Keesler.
Local TV anchor said the NWS has reported a 60 foot wave offshore...somewhere.
That would break Ivan and Dennis' records. Wow!
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 08:46 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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yeah, but i think there was an underwater measurement of 91ft wave from IVAN. Yeah i also heard they would recover in TX...
winds here now 20-25mph... on the beach... guest to 30 or so.... nice wind sound right now...
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI5_wv_loop.gif
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 08:46 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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still open:......PRESSURE WAY UP
URNT12 KNHC 290834
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 29/08:23:00Z
B. 28 deg 38 min N
089 deg 37 min W
C. 700 mb 2367 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 159 deg 130 kt
G. 070 deg 018 nm
H. EXTRAP 917 mb
I. 10 C/ 3013 m
J. 19 C/ 3012 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE-SW
M. C32
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 2012A KATRINA OB 22
MAX FL WIND 132 KT SE QUAD 07:06:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
EYE OPEN 150-230 DEGREES
well we had a very stong cat 5 yesterday... and looking more like we won't see it again from katrina.... she about to make landfall in the swamp area....i waitng to see the ne turn....haven't seen it YET!
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 08:51 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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Thats great news on the pressure but did you ever think that you would see a pressure of 917mb and follow it with "pressure way up""! What a storm.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 08:54 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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Quote:
PRESSURE WAY UP
EYE OPEN 150-230 DEGREES
No...the last recon was 915 it's only gone up 2mb since then.
However that's really something about the eyewall, er, half an eyewall. Of course the sat images are some time behind this but recall how the eye has looked since 0715Z on sat
Edit -- the 4am downgrades the winds to 150mph and speed increases, as expected, to 15mph. Still, says she won't reach the LA/MS border until this aft. Some long morning for MS Gulf Coast.
Well the NHC discussion doesn't mention anything about an ERC or a 2nd eyewall, however on radar it appears there is a 2nd band (also only halfway around) and my thinking was that the inner eyewall would collapse and we'd be left with a ~50mi wide eye. The NHC discussion pointed out the remainder of time before 2nd landfall in LA/MS was near warm water and raised the possibility that the existing eye could redevelop. They seem to allow however for the possibility that Katrina may be down to a Cat 2 by 2nd landfall with this statement, "...may be enough to keep Katrina a major hurricane when it reaches the Louisiana Mississippi border area."
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 08:55 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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from a 905-08 to a 915-17...yeah... looking at latest sat..... she's on a down trend now i think.... there could be ONE last chance just before sunrise i think for her to throw up something, but i don't think so.
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 09:03 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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how many times did I say dry air last night. finally, I hope it keeps pumping in
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 09:03 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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another twarning for area just north of NO
* AT 353 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF PASS CHRISTIAN...OR ABOUT 9 MILES SOUTH OF LONG
BEACH...MOVING WEST AT 60 MPH.
mile a minute?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 09:23 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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making landfall over swamp now....part of LA, could be considered swamp fall?.....just east of little town grand isle, LA
County names on map
http://stormhunter7.tripod.com/radar/lixswampfall.png
| MarcoResi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 09:27 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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HI How far from New Orleans is the Eye of katrina is she going to be a direct hit on NO? thanx
| jr928 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 09:31 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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what does the eastern track of N.O mean with the surge there?
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 09:34 AM |
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morning
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small gusts inland in Mobile...expect things to deteriorate..
when I went to sleep....it was gonna hit to the left...now it looks like the
eye will pass to the east of New Orleans...
Isn't there an easterly component to this?
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 09:38 AM |
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Re: morning
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Movement now is due N.
Looks like right now all those little towns along the "toe" of LA are getting hit with (what is left of) the eyewall of what is a strong Cat 4 right now. i didn't intend to stay up this late but I am really curious to see just how much going over this peninsula will further disrupt the eyewall.
It looks like many hours of the MS coast getting hammered by this thing.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 09:40 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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nothern eywall about 50miles away fomr NO.... think eye will past just to east of NO.....
been watching the SR velocity loop of time fram from 2:42 cdt to just now 4:30cdt.... i think it may show a small vortice inside of the "stadium" or center of storm....as it moved to the north.... pretty cool.... it may not be that, but that's what i come up with....watched it a hundred times....
you may be able to see it on the ridge site
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/lix_N0S_lp.shtml
click the Storm Relative loop
watch the center spinn faster than the rim of center.... look in the middel...
works better if you set the speed all the way up
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 09:45 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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just east of MOBILE
AT 433 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO OVER I10 NEAR
THE BATTLESHIP ...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 65 MPH.
| Black Pearl |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 09:48 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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Tornado Warning: Mobile-
I-10 at the battleship moving NW at 65 mph.
| MarcoResi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 09:54 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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Is There abyone here who can give us first hand whats happening where they are?
http://www.nola.com has some webcams still operating if you'd like to see.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 09:59 AM |
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NEXRAD
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some strong stuff is moving in around NO
one cell on the east edge of Lake P is moving 113kts @ 4000ft.
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbla...6&map.y=239
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 10:01 AM |
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Infared Loop
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may be strengthening
strong band of Red
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir4-loop.html
looks like she spit some dry air out.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
| Sportsfreak1989s |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 10:02 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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Right now it is 4:58 AM here in Lafayette Louisiana and the wind is at about 10 MPH sustained and every once in a while I can see a 20-30 MPH gust come blowing through. It is raining slightly and the way it looks on radar there could be alot more rain coming our way.
I hope everyone else is doing okay. CAN SOMEONE AROUND GRAND BAY ALABAMA TELL ME FIRST HAND HOW IT IS OVER THERE Thanks
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 10:10 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=ILDL1
Isle Dernieres, LA / CSI05
Shorebased Tower
29.05 N 90.53 W (29°03'12" N 90°32'00" W)
60 feet high
4AM CDT
Wind Speed (WSPD): 62.0 kts (71mph)
Wind Gust (GST): 79.1 kts (91mph)
| MarcoResi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 10:16 AM |
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Wave Heights
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Some crazy Wave Heights http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/Maps/WestGulf_inset.shtml
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 10:18 AM |
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Re: Wave Heights
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Any public or private use of this data must
reference the project: the Florida Coastal Monitoring Program. Detailed
information about the program can be found at www.ce.ufl.edu/~fcmp.
Katrina - Tower T1 - Belle Chasse - Upload 050 since (re)start
29° 49' 31.0" N
90° 01' 55.0" W
http://grove.ufl.edu/~fcmp/Katrina/T1/
Peak Winds Measured to Date
10-m Gill: 60.0 Sec 31.3 m/s ( 70.1 mph) @ 37.7° @ 29/10:07:56
10-m Gill: 3.0 Sec 40.0 m/s ( 89.6 mph) @ 38.6° @ 29/10:07:55
10-m WM: 60.0 Sec 32.9 m/s ( 73.5 mph) @ 37.7° @ 29/10:07:56
10-m WM: 3.0 Sec 41.7 m/s ( 93.3 mph) @ 37.9° @ 29/10:07:55
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 10:19 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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I've been waiting on GDIL1's 5am report and when it came...no windspeeds. I think the anemometer broke when the eyewall hit.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 10:22 AM |
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Re: Wave Heights
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CURRENTLY NW OF EYE
Katrina - Tower T2 - Galliano - Upload 030 since (re)start
29° 26' 38.8" N
90° 15' 45.9" W
DISCLAIMER: The FCMP is providing this information for research
purposes only. Accuracy of this data cannot be confirmed until
post-processing. Users assume all risk. Consult the "DeployUpdate.txt"
file before using posted data for information concerning instrumentation
damage and malfunction. Any public or private use of this data must
reference the project: the Florida Coastal Monitoring Program. Detailed
information about the program can be found at www.ce.ufl.edu/~fcmp.
Peak Winds Measured to Date
10-m Gill: 60.0 Sec 34.6 m/s ( 77.4 mph) @ 10.0° @ 29/09:35:48
10-m Gill: 3.0 Sec 43.6 m/s ( 97.5 mph) @ 8.5° @ 29/09:35:22
10-m WM: 60.0 Sec 35.2 m/s ( 78.7 mph) @ 257.4° @ 29/09:35:48
10-m WM: 3.0 Sec 44.8 m/s ( 100.3 mph) @ 278.1° @ 29/09:35:22
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 10:32 AM |
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Re: Infared Loop
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Quote:
may be strengthening
looks like she spit some dry air out.
If you look at the 0715Z wv sat image, it looks like that outer band starting in the NE came around intact, and then contracted towards the center and filled in that dry area to produce a symmetrical shape again (0915Z).
The size of this storm is so incredible. If the remaining eyewall did not disintegrate further, and stayed the same size, and the storm went due N until LA/MS landfall...the west eyewall would be in NO and the east eyewall over east Bay St Louis. The next larger concentric band would range in diameter from the west end of Lake Ponchatrain to Pascagoula.
Edit -- The 6am advis mentioned that 47 ft wave height on buoy 42040!
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 10:46 AM |
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Re: Weakening and Heading North
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I'm not in Grand Bay but in N Mobile. And here we have a sustaind winds of about 40 with gust up about 60. Raining lightly. Winds are out of the ENE. So we are in for the long haul.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 10:58 AM |
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deteriorating....gusts to at least 50....
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Kinda wonder when the power will go out. Hope it holds....but the gusts are pretty intense. In fact...it's gusting more now than when Ivan came in...Ivan hit to the east of us...
right side naughty side......
should get 75 plus soon....
wonder what New Orleans will be like after the storm passes. Water being forced in from the east to west...
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 11:03 AM |
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Re: deteriorating....gusts to at least 50....
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Folks - here is a TV station broadcasting:
mms://a844.l1291238843.c12912.g.lm.akamaistream.net/D/844/12912/v0001/reflector:38843
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 11:08 AM |
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Re: deteriorating....gusts to at least 50....
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Looks like KATs sliding off to the N-NE and will skim the eastern side of the LA marshes on her way to Gulfport/Biloxi. Rick, you should be getting some hurricane force conditions within the next hour or two.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.klix.shtml
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 11:10 AM |
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Landfall
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Fox News is confirming landfall in Grand Isle, LA
Looks like N.O. Still has power for now but as they were doing a live feed, trees started falling all around them.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 11:13 AM |
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Ron..
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thanks for the link. I think you're correct....cause it's getting interesting out there. heard that power all along the Mississippi coast is gone.......I'll keep posting. We will be firing up the generator soon....
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 11:20 AM |
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Re: deteriorating....gusts to at least 50....
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Thank you!
That is so cool. I turned it on just in time to see someone broadcasting live from Ocean Springs in Jackson Cty MS! They had very good graphics on the storm surge and wave heights.
Looks like that station is in Jackson MS.
7am - The gov of MS talked about how they are already having flooding issues in Jackson County and the peak of the storm is hours away. They said 24ft storm surge in Bay St Louis, and the main brunt of the storm winds from there to Biloxi. They also mentioned the NE movement of the storm.
| mightygringo85 |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 11:27 AM |
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First Reports from NOLA
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All the nets are reporting that power is out in the Superdome. They are relying on Generators, but lack Air Conditioning. Fox is reporting that power has gone out in the French Quarter.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 11:30 AM |
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Re: deteriorating....gusts to at least 50....
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WWLTV is back online streaming at www.wwltv.com , www.kvue.com , www.dallasnews.com all owned by Belo. khou has quit streaming for now - they're also Belo. If you need to register at any of them, the registration works at all.
wwltv.com also has an audio only low bandwidth option too
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 11:33 AM |
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Re: Current Obs
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5: 53 CDT NO Lakefront Airport - NE Wind 61 mph, gusting to 84 mph, pressure 28.81
5:55 CDT Keesler AFB Biloxi - E wind 40 mph, 61 mpg gust , pressure 29.08
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 11:34 AM |
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Re: deteriorating....gusts to at least 50....
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Tornado radar confirmedat Bay Minette in northern Baldwin county heading towards I-65 and heading near Stockton
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 11:34 AM |
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Re: deteriorating....gusts to at least 50....
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Quote:
Looks like KATs sliding off to the N-NE and will skim the eastern side of the LA marshes on her way to Gulfport/Biloxi.
Well I had hoped you weren't right (even though this was my prediction this same time yesterday) but sure enough zooming in on the radar there is definitely an easterly component to the movement over the last hour.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 11:39 AM |
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Re: deteriorating....gusts to at least 50....
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Florida Coastal Monitoring Program.
Katrina - Tower T1 -Belle Chasse, LA
29° 49' 31.0" N
90° 01' 55.0" W
Peak Winds Measured to Date
10-m WM: 60.0 Sec 36.1 m/s ( 80.7 mph) @ 23.7° @ 29/11:26:17
10-m WM: 3.0 Sec 44.8 m/s ( 100.2 mph) @ 22.1° @ 29/11:22:25
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 11:49 AM |
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Re: deteriorating....gusts to at least 50....
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great pic from earlier shows and explains it all
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 11:54 AM |
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Re: deteriorating....gusts to at least 50....
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Here in NW Florida we are having wind gusts in excess of 50mph..surge is coming up ontp Pensacola beach ...we do not expect the worst here for a few more hours, especially since Kat has a few more hours over water on its present track, after swiping LA
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 11:59 AM |
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Re: deteriorating....gusts to at least 50....
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I just heard that the pumps are out in NO! Not good news. Anyone else hear that?
|
SkeetoBite
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| (Master of Maps) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:01 PM |
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Re: deteriorating....gusts to at least 50....
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Quote:
I just heard that the pumps are out in NO! Not good news. Anyone else hear that?
Yes, this report is apparently accurate. This is terrible news as the local TV station is also reporting that water is rising rapidly in Lake Ponchartrain.
| collegemom |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:09 PM |
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Re: deteriorating....gusts to at least 50....
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Quote:Quote:
I just heard that the pumps are out in NO! Not good news. Anyone else hear that?
Yes, this report is apparently accurate. This is terrible news as the local TV station is also reporting that water is rising rapidly in Lake Ponchartrain.
Exactly how much water can the lake assume before the levee(s) give? Anyone know?
I just answered my own question by doing a forum search. Todd's post yesterday scares the dickens outta me.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:15 PM |
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Re: deteriorating....gusts to at least 50....
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FYI, it appears that the primary tide gauge at NO guage for Lake Pontchartrain has broken. Here's the raw data from the backup gauge:
http://140.90.121.76/cgi-bin/co-ops_qry_...ormat=View+Data
Data in Meters
Source is NOAA CO-OPS
| LI Phil |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 29 2005 12:16 PM |
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NEW THREAD
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mike has put up a new thread...
please post all replies there.
thanks