(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 01 2005 05:28 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

CNN just had some video of scores of people yelling "F___ RAY. F____ RAY." That's the mayor. Who could not be elected dogcatcher now.

Every single national/state/city leader has failed. Only the Coast Guard is spared from that assessment, those heroic men and women have had a superhuman performance.This disaster should not be a suprise... we've known EXACTLY what would happenin this scenario for years. This is probably the most talked about disaster scenario in the country. The storm did not make a sudden turn, the forecast was terrific. Other than the NHC and the US Coast Guard, no one is exempt from criticism.

Fletch

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 01 2005 05:46 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Is there anything to the convection starting to pop NE of the Bahamas? How are pressures in that area?

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 01 2005 05:50 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

The majority of the models...although I haven't checked since early this a.m. again...show something popping up on the Fl east coast by Sun...the cmc has it go east a bit, shoot north, then come back around to the west as what looks to be a decent storm...the others have into Fl quicker...certainly bears wtaching this weekend.

zmdz01

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 01 2005 05:58 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

I had posted this in the other forum, I thought you would like to take a look at the storm surge.

Everyone,

Here is a link for some video that our local NBC affiliate has of Katrina in Gulfport, MS. It is amazing raw footage. Notice how the brake lights on the floating car comes on? Probably means that someone is still inside the vehicle or the wiring shorted out (probably the later).

http://nbc4la.feedroom.com/index.jsp?fr_story=c989c514a12c6dc1725e355acc966f2d781e48dd

Ed in Va

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 01 2005 06:02 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Been watching that, too. Note the concentrated flare-up on the last frame. Maybe this is the storm being predicted by the models:
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

native

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 01 2005 06:04 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Can you please post a link to that? I cannot find anything in my usual places. Thank you.

Never mind....Ed in VA is apparently a mind reader!

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 01 2005 06:09 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Wow...that was an amazing video..can't tell me those guys didn't drop something in their drawers either.

Native...http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgengifs/

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 01 2005 06:16 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

There appears to be a weak low pressure around 30N 65W, I think there's some sort of ULL to the south and west of it where most of the convection is.

if anything is going to develop, it's going to be pretty durn slow....

-Mark

I'm more curious to see how long it takes for 92L to develop... it's got some unflagged 45Kt winds, but the lowpressure looks elongated....

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 01 2005 06:20 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Amazing video! WOW.

Did anyone see the snow job that FEMA Director Chertoff did at his news conference? What he said does not mesh with what the video and eye witness accounts at the city show. "We are bringing in thousands and thousands of gallons of water for the survivors." Not according to the thousands at the Convention Center (where three people were murdered last night and several were raped). I realize that public officials must keep morale up, but it is clear (from viewing the video, hearing the people, and listening to the streaming police and fire scanners), and will be made clear when it is revealed how many died of thirst/hunger/lack of security, etc. that Chertoff was completely out of touch with the reality of the situation.

The mayor of New Orleans just sent out "a desperate S.O.S." Sure Director Chertoff.... I believe you. What a farce of a press conference.

MapMaster

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 01 2005 06:34 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Florida has 3800 forces on the ground in the bottom six counties of Ms---our designated area of operations. Out team has saved hundreds. Literlally.

We have not failed...we are the only ones on the ground there, since Monday night, beginning.

In LA--yes, I agree.

MM

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Sep 01 2005 06:42 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Just got an e-mail with some incredible photos of the rail yards in New Orleans:
http://www.fredmiranda.com/forum/topic/274104

Also, if you're looking for sat photos, there are links galore over at Google Earth's BBS:
http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/postlist.php/Cat/0/Board/currentEvents

Ed in Va

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 01 2005 06:45 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Here is the afternoon discussion from the Charleston, SC, NWS office. Looks like there is a lot of uncertainty about how all this will be resolved:

MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE A BIT IN
THE LATE TUE THROUGH THU TIME FRAME...WITH THE 00/12Z GFS INDICATING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE BAHAMAS AND TRACK
EASTWARD INTO FL AND EVENTUALLY THE GOMEX. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECMWF
AND 00/12Z CANADIAN MODELS SUGGEST A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TUE NIGHT AND WED. ALL MODELS
INDICATING H5 TROUGHING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE CONUS DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...SO WILL GO WITH A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS WHICH SEEM MORE REASONABLE IN HANDLING OF
DEVELOPING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE BAHAMAS.

native

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 01 2005 06:48 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

They've got those Google Earth images all over local coverage here. I don't remember (translation: I'm too lazy to look) which board members were wondering where the "Hollywood" types were/are:

music.msn.com/tv/article.aspx?news=200397

Good to see that word is getting out loud and clear that this is a tragedy of epic proportions.

By the by...the article does not mention the Jerry Lewis MDA Telethon only accepting for Katrina relief the first and last 4 hours as the local radio station WRMF had stated on air this morning. That's good!

emackl

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 01 2005 06:51 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Your absolutely correct. Not everyone has failed. Yes, there has been mistakes but this is uncharted territory. Even with tons of planning it would be a total mess. I've been watching footage for the last 30 minutes of blackhawk chopper after chopper bringing in injured. I think they would be rather offended to be called failures. Lots of people need water and food. It would be a heck of a lot easier to get to them if we weren't shot at.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 01 2005 06:55 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Quote:

Your absolutely correct. Not everyone has failed. Yes, there has been mistakes but this is uncharted territory. Even with tons of planning it would be a total mess. I've been watching footage for the last 30 minutes of blackhawk chopper after chopper bringing in injured. I think they would be rather offended to be called failures. Lots of people need water and food. It would be a heck of a lot easier to get to them if we weren't shot at.

I completely agree. As I said in my earlier post, the only ones I called failures were the city/state/national leaders .(I made no mention of those working in the areas, only the "brains at the very top") The rescue workers themselves have performed above and beyond the call of duty... these men and women are heroes. My post specifically is talking about the catastrophic situation in New Orleans, not about any other area affected by Katrina. The effects of the storm should come as no suprise to anyone, the effects of a hurricane on the city has been studied perhaps more than any other disaster scenario for YEARS. (And when it comes to state leaders I refer only to Louisiana. Unlike officials in LA, the governors of Texas, Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi have done an amazing job.

StormHound

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 01 2005 06:58 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Quote:

Not according to the thousands at the Convention Center (where three people were murdered last night and several were raped). I realize that public officials must keep morale up, but it is clear (from viewing the video, hearing the people, and listening to the streaming police and fire scanners), and will be made clear when it is revealed how many died of thirst/hunger/lack of security, etc. that Chertoff was completely out of touch with the reality of the situation.

Do you have a source for the above comments of murder and rape?

I'm sure that Chertoff knows better than us what is going on inside the Superdome. What is he supposed to say? "People are dying left and right and we can't do anything about it?"

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 01 2005 07:00 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Yes. A CNN reporter at the convention center a little while ago said that multiple people came up to him and told him "how much worse it was at night." He said they told him that at least three people were murdered and there were several rapes. (He specifically mentioned this as fact, that not just one person had told him this, but many)

No he should not say that, because welll... they CAN do something about it. He should be honest with the public, and tell them how dire the situation is.

When the Mayor of New Orleans makes a statement a few moments after the press conference issuing, "a critical SOS..." we know that things are bad.

Brad in Miami

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 01 2005 07:02 PM

Miami NWS's take on trough near Bahamas

Regarding the complex setup in the Western Atlantic (which HF discussed in some detail this morning), this is from the 243 pm EDT Miami National Weather Service discussion:

"THE GFS DEVELOPS A LOW ON THE FRONT NE OF THE GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND AND MOVES SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHWEST AND THEN THROUGH
THE EXTREME SOUTH PART OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND THEN WEST INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THE NAM IS SLOWER WITH THIS
LOW AND SOMEWHAT DEEPER. THIS SITUATION BEARS WATCHING. BELIEVE
ATTM THIS LOW MAY NOT BECOME TROPICAL AND WILL BE JUST A LOW ALONG
THE FRONTAL TROUGH. "

CoalCracker

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Sep 01 2005 07:04 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Just read a recent online article which said Tex Gov Perry has agreed to house an additional 25,000 people in San Antonio. Report didn't mention a location but the only place capable of handling that many people is the Alamodome. Another big hand from a big state with an even bigger heart.

emackl

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 01 2005 07:14 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

"A CNN reporter at the convention center a little while ago said that multiple people came up to him and told him "how much worse it was at night." He said they told him that at least three people were murdered and there were several rapes"

My biggest problem is I only believe a little of what the reporters say. They want a story. Unless I can see what's going on for myself I'm going to assume everything is being done as quickly as possible. Afterwards, when I get the facts I'll make my decision. Also, I just heard on FNC that there's a lot of "rumors" going on about what happens in the dome. That was by Shep Smith. I happen to loath the man. All he says is no one is telling the people on the bridge where to go. HELLO Shep, why don't you tell them. You have contact with the police. He says they need water. Funny how he can get all his equiptment there but can't get water. Of course not, it would kill his story.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 01 2005 07:21 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Unfortunately, I this case I think the reporters are much more reliable than the state of LA or federal officials. They are the ones on the ground going through this themselves. The officials are the ones getting second and third hand information.

Explain this to me: WHY IS A SNIPER FIRING AT CHARITY HOSPITAL?? Why was the captain of a ferryboat just shot? What do the people gain from this? There was some significant fire exchanged. These folks are truly more and more like insurgents.

jeangfl

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Sep 01 2005 07:41 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

the head of LA police, Gov. Blanco and other "big wigs" just announced that there were NO PROBLEMS at the hospitals - at the same time CNN is talking to a Dr. at one of the hospitals saying they are being fired upon! What on earth is going on? As private citizens I think we could do a better job than this government is doing. Why can't they drop water and sandwiches from the air? Why can't they get help for these people? Hotels hired buses and the government commandeered them - people are talking on CNN now from the Ritz Carlton begging for help -
My heart is broken........................

Juls

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 01 2005 07:41 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

I definately saw alot of water being given out by the case on the videos I watched late last night.
It's getting there, just slowly and very unorganized.
Watching all of this - I am proud of how my fellow floridians came together after our storms - more like what you see in MS and outside of NO.

Takingforever

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 01 2005 07:44 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Calling them insurgents must mean that you can forget that they are human. and you know humanity when you are pretty much cut off from the rest of socity.

That is what happening in New Orleans, they are pretty much in a hole in the ground with no one to lead them and no easy way to get help when the whole city is flooding. It's easy for Texas and Alabama and and Mississippi to look like they have things organized when they aren't surronded by water and have thousands stranded in the middle. Mississippi doen't have to worry about picking people up off of roofs and having people loot and canals break hours after the storm, most of there people were already dead in the hurricane zone, whereas NO got cut off from the law and order and quick help and this is what happens.

Organization is easy to say and plan, but not to do when you have limited resources because your city got cut off from the rest of the world and two states over are jsut as bad if not worst off as you are and we have most of our trained people who would be on stand-by to deal with this are in a war on the other side of the world(Don't believe tthem when they say we have enough people to handle this disaster, if we did, then we wouldn't be having this problem). There are so many peopel vs so little helpers who are ready and no one knew the real damage and mentality of what people woudl do in this situation till Tuesday.

Insurgents, why don't you just call them Terrorist...

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 01 2005 07:46 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

When I... a staunch conservative... agree with Jack Cafferty WHOLE HEARTEDLY... it is truly an awful situation. If anyone heard him earlier today, he really let loose, and I couldn't agree more.

Those inside the city right now are clearly much more reliable sources than those who have not entered the city. Just as an example: The governor insists that no National Guardsman was shot at the Superdome earlier. If she were to even just listen to the scanners, she would know this she is wrong.

Yes they are terrorists. Exactly. They are inflicting terror on the innoncents in the area. The thing that gets me is this shouldn't be a suprise. This area has been studied time and time again for this particular scenario. That's what I don't understand. Why we can't react better. From the reports inside New Orleans (not just some reports... all reports) there is virtually no organization.

cwia

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 01 2005 07:53 PM

Re: katrina

i am sick at heart. we have babies dying up there, we have senior citizens dropping in the streets, we have walking wounded and people dying from dehydration. it hurts so bad thinking about the police, the service people, the medical people who are risking their lives every MINUTE up there. the "crazies" are most likely druggies in the middle of forced withdrawal. why else would anybody with a shred of humanity point a weapon at a hospital or steal from an institution trying to keep their neighbors alive?? why must the liberty and life of so many be compromised by a few, and they do it with impunity.

dear God, President Bush get OFF TV, away from in front of the reporters, and SEND HELP.

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:01 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

I really don't want to bury my head in the sand, but this coverage is overwhelming. I don't want to turn my TV on. The only thing I can think to do is to go in city block by city block with national guard and army troops and move everyone out forcibly. Calling them insurgents implies that they're fighting the US government, when in reality most of them are simply taking advantage of the preception of lack of law.

Getting into a psychological side for a moment. A lot of law enforcement is mental, if you do something you will be caught. That even if you don't see the law enforcement, it's still present. The reality is, most laws broken are not enforced nor can they or will they (ubiquitous tracking and cameras not withstanding). In NO, the mental preception of law has been ripped away. And you have enough of a subset of people who want to take advantage of the reality to either impose their will upon others, or to treat this as an 'end of the world' and that their actions have no consequences.

In order to get the mental preception back in place, a massive physical presence is going to be needed, as the reach of law in NO will now be limited to the places where law enforcement phsyically is. I don't know where the US can find the troops that will be needed (not police officers, they would get massacred if they went in right now), But they're going to need a ton of them just to regain control of the groups that are out of control.

As far as blaming the leaders. I won't give them a pass, because they are the ones who HAVE to make the tough choices. I know the Mayor of NO is never going to be the same (and you can say, at least he's alive), but he is going to live with the fact that he knows that he could have done more. Every one of those deaths are going to be on his mind, probably for every day of his life. Same thing with the Governor. I won't give them a pass, but I hope that I never ever find myself going through anything even remotely like what they must be going through and will go through.

As far as the relief effort. They're trying, they really are. Maybe the coordination isn't what it could be. But Honestly I think they are doing about the best they can do in an impossible situation. Sure some officals won't admit the truth, that the situation is out of their control and has been out of their control for a while. They have to recognize the situation and accept that things are out of control. Then work to regain control.

Maybe the priority is to find survivors. But... people 'rescued' are dying, Lawlessness is now an increasing threat to the remaining survivors. It is time for the priority to change slightly.

-Mark

My apologies for the rambling nature...

Takingforever

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:03 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Quote:

Why we can't react better. From the reports inside New Orleans (not just some reports... all reports) there is virtually no organization.

Well I think the blame comes down to how everyone is seperated. if everyone was in the Dome and it didn't fall apart and the tolets didn't run over, we see a better story right now.

But with all of stories of "Everyone for themselves" on the blog networks I'm reading(the#1 source for info from the human POV), I can see why no matter how many police/guards there were, most wouldn't listen to them in the first place(I read many stayed in NO because they wanted to protect there livelihood, idiots). I think we can blame culture in the Big Easy for that one.

I mean they could of started beating people and shooting them if they didn't listen..but hey I don't think anyone would want that...after all in some spots the poeple out number the police/guards. This isn't a small town in Mississippi or Florada with a coupel of thousand of peoplewho got hit by a hurricane or one section of New york City fall down, we are talknig about a whole major city(Million plus) and it suburbs with tens of thousand of people trying to get ot one place(The Superdome) and others doing what they need to do to survive, since most of them(Black) don't trust the goverment in the first palce...

Ron Basso

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:08 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Big red I completely agree. The local and state governments (both LA and MISS) have been completely overwhelmed by the shear size and scope of the storm - this is MAJOR chaos unfolding. They were interviewing the head of FEMA last nite on CNN (Aaron Brown) and he was hammering this FEMA guy Mike Brown for not having pre-storm supplies and troops in place knowing a CAT 5 storm was on its way. Aaron Brown really put this FEMA guy on the defensive and he tried changing the subject about we can analyze this at a later date (their slow response) - we just need to get supplies in now (amen to that!). Heaven forbid we have a major terrorist attack if this is the way the federal government responds. A paltry eight search and rescue boats on its way when there are tens of thousands of people that need to be brought out? A meager 25,000 troops spread out over 3 states plus NO? We need tent cities and all the supplies necessary now for at least several hundred thousand people.

Jax Chris

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:08 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Quote:

Amazing video! WOW.

Did anyone see the snow job that FEMA Director Chertoff did at his news conference? What he said does not mesh with what the video and eye witness accounts at the city show. "We are bringing in thousands and thousands of gallons of water for the survivors." Not according to the thousands at the Convention Center (where three people were murdered last night and several were raped). I realize that public officials must keep morale up, but it is clear (from viewing the video, hearing the people, and listening to the streaming police and fire scanners), and will be made clear when it is revealed how many died of thirst/hunger/lack of security, etc. that Chertoff was completely out of touch with the reality of the situation.

The mayor of New Orleans just sent out "a desperate S.O.S." Sure Director Chertoff.... I believe you. What a farce of a press conference.

I see that Chetoff didn't say, "We have brought thousands and thousands of gallons...," he said, "We are bringing..." Since you're saying that he's incorrect, you are contending that there's no water on the way. Please, tell us the source that leads you to believe that no water is on the way. Or, if the problem is you think that water has taken too long to get there, where would you have shipped the water from, over what routes, and how would you have delivered the water to its final destination in the Superdome? What leads you to believe that those routes are available?

You also indicate that a supply of water would have prevented murders and rapes. I can imagine some circumstances where a water supply would prevent murders, but I would appreciate it if you could explain how a source of water would prevent rapes. I guess I'm just dense; I would contend that people having respect for each other would have prevented these alleged (since I've not heard reports, but I'll admit that they possibly did occur) murders and rapes.

I don't expect answers to these questions, especially since this isn't the correct forum for this discussion. But the tone has gotten increasingly shrill, and seems to have descended into attempting to manufacture evidence that people involved in handling the disaster aren't doing all that can be done to ease the situation. Sitting back, arm-chair quaterbacking, is easy. "I'd get them food." Fine. From where? How much? How to get it there? Can we go all the way by road, or are parts impassable? If we need to change from one form of transportation to another, where can that be done? What could we have used the space to bring in if we didn't bring in food; insulin, for example? How do we distribute it at the end without causing a riot? It's these little details of actually doing it that are hard.

Well, I guess I've made my first post that'll get sent to the graveyard (except for this sentence saying it'll be sent to the graveyard, and the moderator's note, "You got that right"). But these constant complaints about the disaster management team not living up to an impossible standard are getting tiring.

Jax Chris

i'm not gonna graveyard it, but other mods might...but you didn't get it right either

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:16 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Found a link of a lot of photos:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/galleries/305-5.html?SITE=MIDTN&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

They've also added New Orleans photos to the NOAA sat page:
http://alt.ngs.noaa.gov/katrina/KATRINA0000.HTM

And from that page, here's the main levee breach:
http://mfproducts.nos.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24425580.jpg

(we almost need a seperate thread for photos and images...)

StormHound

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:17 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Quote:

You also indicate that a supply of water would have prevented murders and rapes. I can imagine some circumstances where a water supply would prevent murders, but I would appreciate it if you could explain how a source of water would prevent rapes. I guess I'm just dense; I would contend that people having respect for each other would have prevented these alleged (since I've not heard reports, but I'll admit that they possibly did occur) murders and rapes.

See above comments by Bloodstar as to how food and water can prevent murders and rapes. The normal boundaries we build around us to keep us an orderly society have been ripped away in New Orleans. Basic human neccessities like food, water and shelter go a long way to alleviate mental stresses.

Rick on boat in Mobile

(Weather Drama Guru)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:19 PM

consider this

there are situations in life where there is no available help right away. That's the way it is. Sad, but true. And to suggest humans are capable of producing perfect scenarios is unrealistic. The best thing to do is help...

We humans sometimes get ourselves into situations that we cause. But even if that is so...officials can't just wave a stick and it happens....Only God can do that...

I have a work mate who'se sister lives here in Mobile...inland 30 miles. Her name is Katrina. She decided to ride out the hurricane in Long Beach, Mississippi, about 1.2 miles from the GOM, because she wanted to be there for the "excitement".

Now my workmate's wife and parents are traveling there to hopefully find her.

I heard an elderly woman walked for a solid 24 hours and made it to the French Quarter..where it is drier and there is food.

Perhaps they need to just "walk, swim, wade...out of New Orleans..don't know.

as for the looters and rapers....if the government or police don't catch them, they still won't get away with it.
The Creator is watching, and they WILL render an account.

The best thing to do is provide help, one way or another.

Criticizing this situation may make people give up. Hope is what they need...not despair. When they lose hope, is when they die.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:19 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

I didn't intend to imply that food and water would prevent rapes. Food and water would prevent the dehydration and help the health effects. The rapes and murders were a reference to the Director's comments on the limited nature of the criminal activity. (I'm sorry I did not have the verbatim quote on the water, but he implied that there were very few people without water, and that is certainly not the case.)

Here is why I am upset:

http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/wetlands/hurricane_print.html

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf?/washingaway/thebigone_1.html

http://hurricane.lsu.edu/_newsbriefs/hefmtg.html

http://64.233.187.104/search?q=cache:2iF...trina&hl=en

This was supposedly our "A-1" priority for natural disaster planning. They did a mock of it last year and planned for it the year before!! This isn't 9-11 where it came as a complete surprise... we've had YEARS to plan... and the men and women at the top (from the Mayor on up) bungled it.

Anyways...I don't want to post anymore about the blame. We can always come back to it later. It may be too late to stop this discussion, but we really should get back to the actual disaster.

LisaMaria65

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:20 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard* *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

tpratch

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:20 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Not being in their exact situation, I can't speak too eloquently, however...

The convention center is in an area without flooding. Why exactly are they needing to get rescued before people who are living on rooftops again? Surely there is one able-bodied person there who could walk to officials and bring assitance for those in need, but wow - this is pretty bad. Nobody has brought us water? Perhaps it's because they're actually taking care of folks with no easy means to get out of their situations?

The depth of human selflessness is eclipsed only by the depth of human selfishness.

Again, I'm not there and I realize that yes, there are thousands of tragic stories in NO, but I don't think that people who are able-bodied and not flooded are necessarily chief amongst them.

YMMV SPSFD

As for Bush being an idiot and to blame, I think you're a touch out of line. Our government is a bureaucracy - Bush put people in charge (FEMA/DoHS) of making things happen. The president is not given a wand to wave to make things happen. Next-day response to a lot of unknowns is somewhat unrealistic. Even in a country like ours, a relief effort this large needs to know what they're stepping in to and they need a plan.

As for a comparison, you're right. You can't compare NO to say, Gulfport. New Orleans still exists, even though it's flooded. Portions of Gulfport are just plain gone. Trying to compare LA to MS or AL is just ridiculous. All 3 states have massive areas of concern that need addressing. The media is just focusing on NO because it was their doomsday scenario, and people on rooftops make for better media than people with concrete slabs.

Sickening to be certain, but welcome to our society.

bigpapi

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:27 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Ryan

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:32 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/refresh/danger_atl_latestBW+gif/144711123_sm.gif

thats a lot of areas to watch, the invest 92L definatley has to be monitored more than Lee and 14.

emackl

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:36 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Ron, you still around? Please look at what's flaring up east of Fl and tell me it won't be anything to worry about. Everytime I look it still there. I'm thinking I may just not look anymore..LOL!

VandyBrad

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:36 PM

Great words...

I just received an email from my alumni association at Vanderbilt University. Chancellor Gordon Gee wrote the following words as part of this address to the Vanderbilt community in response to Katrina:

"As an institution, we are committed to helping, and also to enabling the members of our community to help to the extent they are able and needed. Our only option is to respond. No other option exists, or is even possible."

If those words don't sum it all up, I don't know what words can.

- "Our only option is to respond. No other option exists, or is even possible."

Takingforever

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:36 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Saddest part is people are trying to blame this on someone..There is no one to blame this on. Five days a month time to prepare, opeopel would still be trying to blame this on someone.

how about we all forget trying to blame people and get out of this situation first? Hell even those in NO forgot about help and are going with good old chanting of who to blame...

And we aren't even done yet with this Season from hell 2. The next storm is going to cause panic like we never seen before.

TSFH and all it's subsequent incantations are the explicit rights of LI Phil

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:43 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

I just checked the model runs on 92L...

WOW

GFDI brings it to a Category 4 in 4-5 days...about the time it's passing south of Cuba.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

Right now Frame 1 is 92L, but I don't know how long that will stay.

Rick on boat in Mobile

(Weather Drama Guru)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:43 PM

my workmate

just came in...he said they found Katrina. The roof had been blown off the house, and a tree went through it...

they are alive and fine....a mile from where the hurricane came in. wow

Brad in Miami

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:52 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Random:

Check the forecast tracks of 92L in the link you provided; even if it went WNW, it probably wouldn't even be in the Caribbean, or would be just in the eastern Caribbean, in 4-5 days. Definitely not south of Cuba.

Ryan

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:53 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Quote:

I just checked the model runs on 92L...

WOW

GFDL brings it to a Category 4 in 4-5 days...about the time it's passing south of Cuba.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

Right now Frame 1 is 92L, but I don't know how long that will stay.

yea we are going to have to watch 92L, especially if it goes intot he lesser antilles of the PR/DR/HAITI regina, and the Bahamas(obviously)

and as Brad said its not Cuba your looking at, i think it may be PR or DR

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:57 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

BAMM's seem to show some sharp recurvature.

Other models really run the gamut. I don't think they have too hot of a grasp on the system yet.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_92.gif

(User)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:57 PM

Re: my workmate

Quote:

just came in...he said they found Katrina. The roof had been blown off the house, and a tree went through it...

they are alive and fine....a mile from where the hurricane came in. wow

interesting name she has...maybe she can use her middle name for a while...

Just gotta lighten the mood for a second...Phil and I are good at using our middle names! --Clark

naples

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Sep 01 2005 08:59 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

The gfdl model guidance of 92L sure does paint a scary picture. Hope it is wrong. http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation

Dawn

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 01 2005 09:00 PM

Re: my workmate

Thanks for the chuckle Phil, I think we all needed that. Glad that she is OK!

Dawn

Big Kahuna

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Sep 01 2005 09:08 PM

Re: my workmate

Well this is the first time I have ever seen the NHC put TD 14's information directly over florida on the 5 day cone track. ....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/204603.shtml?5day

JMII

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 01 2005 09:11 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Quote:

And we aren't even done yet with this Season from hell 2. The next storm is going to cause panic like we never seen before.

This is my big fear - in the next storm nobody will go to a "shelter" instead they will clog the roads with traffic resulting in a whole new set of problems.

Lee-Delray

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 01 2005 09:14 PM

Re: my workmate

TD 14 Looks very far east of Florida to me
i think he's talking about the information block sitting atop florida. -HF

zmdz01

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 01 2005 09:16 PM

Re: my workmate

Big Kahuna,

When I look at the 5 day track of TD14, I'm not seeing it over Florida. In fact it doesn't even show it getting very close before it turns towards the North. Am I not seeing something that you are?

Marcus

naples

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Sep 01 2005 09:18 PM

Re: my workmate

Big Kahuna is reffering to the storm information being placed over florida, not the storm itself.

native

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 01 2005 09:22 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

BRM - I pray your right man. On the one hand I keep saying...it's not a "system" yet...the models will do a better job once it is, they're just models, etc. But I HATE the GDFL.,.,.,.,please let this be the beginning of horrible forecasting streak!

Lee-Delray - Big Khauna met the NHC's INFO box is right on top of Florida...not the storm! LOL..

wannabemet

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 01 2005 09:22 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Just wanted to say about your post...in freeking incredible! Why would we planning officials not have heeded this kind of warning? As a native CA, I guess I can kind of understand this mentality, cause most officials are not prepared for a major earthquake when it comes.

I hope the reports of a possible tropical formation off the east coast of Florida is completely incorrect. To any real mets out there...I know there have been discussions in the past about how much one storm can affect sea tempertures by mixing the different "layers" of water, and thus prevent another storm from brewing up? Since Katrina created storm surges of 20+ ft, would that have an impact on current Gulf surface temps? Would enough mixing have occured that it would prevent another Cat 3-5 from forming if that low travels across FL as possibly anticipated? What are the surface temps out there right now?

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Sep 01 2005 09:23 PM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Quote:

The gfdl model guidance of 92L sure does paint a scary picture. Hope it is wrong. http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation

Here in Maryland I do NOT like that track.

It's showing a 918mb 133kt storm heading toward the east coast in 5 days.

-------------

As for SST mixing, it doesn't look like it. While the SSTs have fallen a little in the Gulf, they still are very high: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/sst-pac-loop.html

You can also look at the hourly scans of SSTs, but these are highly effected by cloudcover:
http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/?product=sst&region=gulfmexico&nothumbs=0

HanKFranK

(User)

Thu Sep 01 2005 10:47 PM

lee 14 92

okay, the rundown today.
lee... same as before. sheared, removed convection, drifting north. if the convection redevelops near the center it may intensify. it may also go belly up soon.
14... is a tropical storm, rated a depression. scatterometer overpass missed it, but that little core that shear peeled the convection off of last night is the kind you find with a tropical storm. i'd guess there are 40-50kt unflagged vectors on it. if it redevelops convection near the center.. perhaps it'll get the nudge up. in spite of southeasterly shear the system is maintaining 2.0 and 2.5 t-ratings... sheared systems are usually stronger than their t-ratings would suggest. globals don't show much happening with it.. most weaken it or trough it out.
92L has threat written on it. the system is getting better organized.. holding down 1.5 t-ratings and under decreasing easterly shear. the globals are developing it and the gfdl types are making a monster out of it. most track it to the northeastern caribbean or thereabouts in about five days. i'm not a big proponent of the vacillating gfdl open trough/major hurricane progs... but early indications are that it may be a hurricane at that time. big ridge settling in off the east coast around that timeframe.. if it isn't hanging on the trough ahead of it, this may become a threat further west.
have said much about the pattern-forced pressure falls that are going to happen ahead of the canadian high coming down into the mid atlantic this weekend. should be disturbed weather and low pressure trying to form along a line roughly from north of the yucatan to near bermuda. models show a variety of features developing within this region... different version of events pretty much everywhere. fairly safe to assume that a system or two will try to develop within this area, around the weekend timeframe. the most common version is a system near bermuda that goes out, with another further west.. roughly centered around florida. it may end up being a frontal or high-shear situation. whether something develops will partially depend on how quickly the trough can split and lift out.... if it lingers a shear zone with struggling activity will likely prevail.
another wave will come off africa this weekend. mediocre model interest. could be a brief subtropical-type cutoff south of the azores as well.
that about does it. it's just september... in a hyper-active year.
HF 2246z01september

MikeC

(Admin)

Thu Sep 01 2005 11:31 PM

Re: lee 14 92

Clark has posted a pretty good roundup regarding the new systems. The only one that might be of concern is the wave in the eastern atlantic called "92L", mentioned on the front page. The others are most assuredly fish spinners.

Hopefully nothing will even get close to the gulf in the next few weeks.

Littlebit

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 02 2005 12:12 AM

Re: lee 14 92

I just watched the tropical update on The Weather Channel a few minutes ago and they mentioned needing to keep an eye on an area in the GOM near the panhandle of Florida. Anyone have any information on that?

Thank you, Donna

Go Bucs!!

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Sep 02 2005 12:23 AM

Re: lee 14 92

There IS a weak tropical wave over the Carribean right now, but a weak anticyclonic vorticity in the gulf should prohibit any storm forming. None of the models develop anything into the gulf until at least mid next week, and then it is hard to tell whether the system that develops would go gulf or atlantic side of Florida.

However, there is the chance that something develops late in the forcast period that we have to watch. That may be what TWC was talking about, but I'm not sure.

bn765

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 02 2005 12:38 AM

Re: lee 14 92

There has been talk that the models have been picking up on a very strong hurricane next week headed towards the east coast?? Anybody have any say in this?

(User)

Fri Sep 02 2005 12:41 AM

a solution for the gangs shooting at rescue choppers...

next time a looter or gangbanger shoots at a chopper, i suggest they come back with one of these:

that'd restore some law and order pretty quick...

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 02 2005 12:58 AM

Re: lee 14 92

Quote:

There has been talk that the models have been picking up on a very strong hurricane next week headed towards the east coast?? Anybody have any say in this?

Sorry, but we now have to create a new scale for hurricanes.

Heard from several different people today that cell phone coverage out of Harrison and Jackson Counties very spotty...calls trying to get through from there lasting only seconds before losing the signal.

I have been looking at additional satellite images and figuring out the distance in of the storm surge in various areas along the MS Gulf Coast. I'm working out more details about how the surge developed so differently from the standard pattern, and looking at the debris fields. I earlier posted ideas on this sometime in the past two days. I am just curious to see if I can possibly feel worse than I do right now about how things worked out for the Gulf Coast, so I thought this was just the thing.

I doubt any accurate numbers are out but if anyone has heard storm surge estimates in feet for anywhere on the MS Gulf Coast I would appreciate if you could PM them to me.

Since MS has no other coastline I suppose I should stop saying Gulf Coast as it is slightly redundant, but it's an old habit.

BillD

(User)

Fri Sep 02 2005 01:00 AM

Re: a solution for the gangs shooting at rescue choppers...

Great pic LI Phil! I just do not get the looter mentality at all. I remember after Andrew driving down US1 into Cutler Ridge (I had friends of the family down there we had not heard from, as well as family down in Naranja) any way, while waiting at a National Guard checkpoint I remember watching looters stealing CD's from a big music store. I never could figure that out, we didn't have power for weeks, what were they going to do with those CD's?

I can understand someone not having had something to eat for several days wanting to snag a couple of cans of tuna, but what do you do with 100 pairs of BVD's?

To get this back on topic, I am watching 92L and do not like what I see. It is too early to really tell what it is going to do, but it has all the makings... It will all depend on what the ridge(s) do over the next week or so.

And a quick Katrina report from South Florida. I was not prepared. My power went out about 6:30 PM Thursday, and it wasn't until about 9:00 PM that I realized this was not just a tropical storm. To make a long story short, I just got my power back yesterday and we are still cleaning up. But we were lucky.

Bill

SkeetoBite Administrator

(Master of Maps)

Fri Sep 02 2005 01:02 AM

Re: a solution for the gangs shooting at rescue choppers...

LOL Phil, you crack me up. Alternatively, I hear they use the 105mm Howitzer on an AC130 as a rifle with a laser scope.

Larry

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 02 2005 01:07 AM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

[quote This is my big fear - in the next storm nobody will go to a "shelter" instead they will clog the roads with traffic resulting in a whole new set of problems. [/quote

Indeed. The extended version of NBC nightly news covered the 3,000 people at the NO convention center who have been without food or water for days. The report established that the convention center was recommended as a secondary shelter after the Superdome. The people there are waiting for help, with no armed thugs around like other places. A very sad story that described the deaths of babies and the elderly from the conditions. After the story, the reporter interviewed Mike Brown, head of FEMA, who he today made it a high priority to get relief to these people. When questioned why they hadn't done it before, Brown stated that "honestly they just learned the people were there at the convention center today" after media coverage.

Duh!!! This speaks volumes about why there is such continued chaos. Down the road after this is over, there needs to be a long hard look at the lack of management coordination for the relief efforts, or this will not be the last time lives are lost.

(User)

Fri Sep 02 2005 01:10 AM

Don't Look Now...But

GFDL animation brings 92L to CAT IV status...

chase 22

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 02 2005 01:11 AM

Re: a solution for the gangs shooting at rescue choppers...

it will be interesting to see what 92L does in the next couple of days

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 02 2005 01:12 AM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Quote:

Indeed. The extended version of NBC nightly news covered the 3,000 people at the NO convention center who have been without food or water for days.

It's actually 20,000 people. It's just sad. I just saw an old woman die in her husband's arms. MSNBC just had some awful pictures of the site.

Thanks for the good news Phil.

According to William Gray... 8 more to go. With all of the current activity, that's starting to seem low.

There's no way FEMA could even handle that. They were already having problems this year due to the big four last year. Then Dennis. Then the worst natural disaster in our nation's history. There's not enough money or people to help if another major, god forbid, were to hit.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 02 2005 01:17 AM

Re: Don't Look Now...But

Quote:

GFDL animation brings 92L to CAT IV status...

Which model is the one you were trying not to grouse about - was it the GFDL?

(User)

Fri Sep 02 2005 01:19 AM

Re: Don't Look Now...But

the GFS

good for nothing

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 02 2005 01:21 AM

Re: Don't Look Now...But

Quote:

the GFS

good for nothing

as in good for "nothing"

Miami Beach, FLA USA

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Sep 02 2005 01:22 AM

NBC Nightly News interview of FEMA Dir. Brown

Ladies and Gentlemen, we have complete incompetency running this relief operation, and although I commend him and provide the utmost respect for any individual attempting to undertake this rescue operation (Dir. Brown), the statement, "that just today" he learned of these poor people suffering at the Convention Center and throughout the City of New Orleans is possibly the most disconcerting thing...causing me great fear and anxiety for those poor souls trapped in the toxic waters. Our outrage at this type of response must be known...this could easily be any of us from Florida going through what our neighbors are... we learned this all before from Andrew.

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 02 2005 01:24 AM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Just learned today? Impossible...has he not looked at a tv or read a paper the last 4 days? I'm afraid things are only going to get worse in NO.

Phil...not liking the models either...I think your "crowd control" idea is great!!!

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 02 2005 01:30 AM

Re: Tropical Depression 14 Forms in Central Atlantic, No Threat to Land

Looking at the aerials over MS again...mind numbing destruction...but how the heck did that McDonalds sign survive? Maybe we need to look into that when rebuilding.

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Sep 02 2005 01:30 AM

Re: Don't Look Now...But

Quote:

GFDL animation brings 92L to CAT IV status...

Take a look at 1 frame before the end. That's Cat 5 with 116mb 142kt winds.

don't put too much stock in a wave the gfdl blows up into a cat 5. happens all too often. -HF

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 02 2005 01:32 AM

Re: NBC Nightly News interview of FEMA Dir. Brown

It almost hurts too much to talk about any of this any more, but I think it is obvious that it is not FEMA that is the problem. There is a huge difference at the state level. Granted, MS has had to deal with coastal hurricanes before, and LA has an unimaginable unique situation on their hands, but MEMA has been totally on top of things just as much as was possible given the huge scale of the coastal disaster.

MEMA had all their resources ready. As soon as the winds had died down to the level just above what might be considered safe, MEMA moved in to initiate search and rescue right away. Because of the size of the problem, search and recovery is going to be difficult, but in the areas that are left with any significant population, they are working as fast as they can. And MEMA was not sidetracked by the huge amount of wind damage sustained at Hattiesburg and other locations inland, in addressing the coastal effort, which has been very focused, organized, and coordinated.

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Fri Sep 02 2005 01:34 AM

Re: NBC Nightly News interview of FEMA Dir. Brown

The hardest thing in the world to do is sit in your living room and watch the horror and not be able to reach through the screen and change something.
In response to the models for 5 days out. Are they in any type of agreement on direction and intensity or are the models simply beginning to suggest conditions may be right for this storm to occur. I usually understand the models are based on the current conditions but with all the recent new data, from the past year to now, Are the different data more reliable now than in the past? Or is it less reliable than in the past. Its one thing to speculate on possible formation and another to prepare for a coming event. Even those of us who prepared with our knowledge from last year here in Florida, have had to use some of our supplies, or have donated some to those less fortunate and need to replenish. With the gas prices starting to climb as well as the newer product in the store beginning to climb in price, conservative consumerism is still important right now.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 02 2005 01:40 AM

Re: NBC Nightly News interview of FEMA Dir. Brown

Well the main thing is that we don't see it hitting LA or MS.

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 02 2005 01:44 AM

Re: NBC Nightly News interview of FEMA Dir. Brown

Franklin Graham on FNC right now said the same thing I did earlier...round these able bodied men up & put them to work cleaning & helping...they do it overseas in situations such as this...food for work...why not now..especiallly now...the man power is needed & it will certainly help them & their families get back on their feet sooner.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 02 2005 01:48 AM

Re: NBC Nightly News interview of FEMA Dir. Brown

I couldn't believe my ears when I heard Director Brown either. How could the man in charge of the recue and recovery efforts NOT know about the second largest shelter in the city? It's not like they had huge shelters all over the place. With all of the flyovers during the past few days... I'm pretty certain somebody had to have seen the people. It's kind of hard to hide 20,000 folks. I'm not sure I believe the man. But if he was telling the truth and the FEMA organization did not know about this until today... 3 days after the storm... that is a sad statement of the entire rescue and recovery efforts. I'd almost rather he be lying to me than have it be the latter.

I hope that the authorities exercise due dilegence before letting people back in the city. The whole city is should qualify as a superfund site. If they let people back in too soon, before they have had time to clean it up properly, the health effects could likely last generations. Contamination will be hidden everywhere.

ralphfl

(Weather Master)

Fri Sep 02 2005 01:53 AM

Re: NBC Nightly News interview of FEMA Dir. Brown

Ok the TS looks like a fish the TD looks like a fish but 92l what is the long range sotry right now with this? we know from the past till it becomes a strom the models don't pick the track up well but what is the 10 dasy showing right now? GOM or below or easy coast or fish? all i see right now is the Islands.

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 02 2005 01:56 AM

Re: NBC Nightly News interview of FEMA Dir. Brown

I'd like to post once more time for those who missed it earlier, a few of the many studies of a hurricane and the city of New Orleans. This is why I'm so upset by New Orleans, Louisiana, and Federal officials.

http://americanradioworks.publicradio.org/features/wetlands/hurricane_print.html

http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf?/washingaway/thebigone_1.html

http://hurricane.lsu.edu/_newsbriefs/hefmtg.html

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0BJK/is_15_11/ai_68642805/pg_

This was supposedly our "A-1" priority for natural disaster planning. They did a mock of it last year and planned for it the year before!! This isn't 9-11 where it came as a complete surprise... we've had YEARS to plan...

Beaumont, TX

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 02 2005 02:00 AM

Re: NBC Nightly News interview of FEMA Dir. Brown

I am wondering what the long range forecast is on 92L is also. Anyone have any ideas on what may be happening with this system?
Any chance it could get into the Gulf? We have evacuees from Katrina here at our Ford Center and kids attending our schools.
Evacuees are in Houston and San Antonio. I hope all the states will do what they can to help these people. This is a national disaster.

ralphfl

(Weather Master)

Fri Sep 02 2005 02:09 AM

Re: NBC Nightly News interview of FEMA Dir. Brown

Not really a lot of talk on here about coming storms people want to just talk about what we see on tv each Min of the day.We know its a bad situation and the people need water and food the mayor is a dummy (better for lack of words) but everything that keeps being said is on tv 24 Hr's a day when there are 2 storms right now and a 3rd that looks bad on the 5 day that people want to know about.Yet we can't get any info on that.Other then the gdfl 5 day.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 02 2005 02:12 AM

Re: NBC Nightly News interview of FEMA Dir. Brown

I come to this board for lots of reasons and I realize others have theirs as well, but just want to say while I understand how it may feel good to vent, what happens for me as a reader is that it really brings me down, when I am coming here for some perspective and breathing room.

I don't mean any post in particular or tonight in particular, but the last couple days have been hard on all of us, and this has been reflected in the board, with angry posts spinning things up faster than an August hurricane in the loop current (I just love how truly hoaky that sounds).

We all wish we could do something about the situation; anything except having to sit and watch it play out. But if the board continues this way, I suspect we may possibly be without a board. The mods are more stressed out than us, because they have to deal with us! So give them a break.

As for my posts, I am sorry that I cannot focus at all on any new storms or invests. I'm still trying to get rid of the personal demons brought on by Katrina guilt. But I'm happy for those that do want to, and hope they don't mind my posts in return.

ralphfl

(Weather Master)

Fri Sep 02 2005 02:14 AM

Re: Don't Look Now...But

From that GDFL it looks like a low maybe off the east coast at that time guess too early to tell but looks like more of a east coast US thing then a GOM to me.

tpratch

(Moderator)

Fri Sep 02 2005 02:41 AM

Re: Don't Look Now...But

Yeah, a little venting is good, this is bordering on obsession

To that note, the man very well may not have seen a TV in many days. If you're knee deep in this stuff 18 hours a day, would YOU turn on a TV when you had a chance to take a breather?

/rhetorical question only

What's the comment from a few days before Kat hit Cat 5? When the models tend to see a strengthening storm they don't necessarily get a handle on anything other than the fact that it's going to get big?

Please God, let 92L spin the fishes. Pretty please?