MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 02:41 PM |
Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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4:45PM Update
Ophelia makes Hurricane Status. We now have a Hurricane sitting off the east central Florida Coastline, 70-80 miles east of Cape Canaveral. Tropical Storm Warnings are still up from Sebastian Inlet to Flagler, and Watches north of that. The warning was extended southward only because the storm's windfield has expanded, not because it is thought to move toward that direction.
There are no hurricane warnings or watches currently.
More to come later.
Original Update
Not much to report new. Ophelia is still stationary off the east Central Florida Coastline, about 70 miles east of New Smyrna Beach and a little closer toward Cape Canaveral (60 miles).
Ophelia is still expected, but not certain to, very very slowly shove north and a bit east. The new National Hurricane Center forecast track takes it slightly further east away from the US much later on, so that is some good news. However it still has a loop forecast, so that may be short lived.
Ophelia may be starting to strengthen again, and Recon aircraft will be out there this afternoon to check on it more.
Due to it being a little too close for comfort Volusia county schools have closed for the day.
The area is still under a Tropical Storm Warning, and a Hurricane Watch may be issued for parts of the coast later today.
Take a look at the track models below for a good idea where it may go, in this case, we just don't know.
It has held its intensity today, and we'll be looking for pressure drops to see if it will intensify further. It was disrupted some this morning, which has kept it in check so far.
Ophelia is still off our coastline. Most of the rainshower activity has been to the south, east, and north of the center of the storm. Still most likely it will move north and east, slowly, very slowly, and then eventually loop back around toward the west.
Some bands will make their way onshore today. With me personally having family property right on the coast along New Smyrna Beach, you can be sure I'm watching this one very closely. I'll be in New Smyrna Beach tonight.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps lookhere.
Those in the area will want to keep watch on this one for any westward movement.
More to come soon.
Report conditions from Ophelia in your area In this thread
Katrina Discussions are in the Disaster Forum
Event Related Links
Radars, Satellite
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Video/Audio/Webcams
Daytona Beach Webcam (Streaming)
Daytona Beach Piercam
WESH TV 2 Daytona Beach Tower Cam
Emergency Management:
State of Florida - Floridadisaster.org
Brevard County
Flagler County
Indian River County
Volusia County
Other florida counties
Maria
Animated model plots of Maria
Nate
Animated model plots of Nate
Ophelia
Animated model plots of Ophelia
Google Map Plot of Ophelia
Floater IR Satellite of Ophelia
Floater WV Satellite of Ophelia
Floater Visible Satellite of Ophelia
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 02:48 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia Is Still There
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The new position does reflect a slight (.2) drift south, and overall it is slightly SW of where it was positioned after it reorganized two days ago.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 02:49 PM |
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|
11:00am numbers
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AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
In the last 12 hours:
The storm has moved -.3N & +.3W
995mb to 989mb
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 02:52 PM |
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Re: Ophelia Is Still There
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Only possible problem is that most of the models have this looping back to the west as the ridge builds over and doesn't allow her to escape. UKMET and NOGAPS support this idea, and the longer she sits, the more time is running out for her to escape. HPC builds the ridge on the east coast through day 7, which is a bit disturbing. She is intensifying again, and for her to get out to sea she needs to get beyond 32N/75W by Friday night. Don't see this happening. Again, this is taking the idea of the evolving upper level pattern, and where the Globals put her in 48 hours. I don't believe they will verify with their north and east positions, so she'll have not far west to go before threatening the coastline. Just my opinion though, not a forecast per se.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 03:00 PM |
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Re: 11:00am numbers
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not to be argumentative, but from 28.9N to 28.6 N in 12 hours is a drift south of .3...it has also ,as noted drifted from 79.3W to 79.6 W, also .3...this translates to a SW drift in the last 12 hours.
| CocoCrk |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 03:13 PM |
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Re: Ophelia Is Still There
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It's a good thing (relatively speaking since it has to be somewhere) that Ophelia is where she is. If she was further North off the coast of South Carolina or further South off the coast of Palm Beach/Broward County, where the coast juts out much further East than it does further up the coast, we'd be looking at major flooding and even worse beach erosion.
She's been sitting and spinning in generally the same spot now for hours and hours and the most concentrated rain bands are pummelling the same real estate (albeit ocean) over and over. So for now, I guess we can say we are very lucky!
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 03:16 PM |
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Bouy Link 20NM of Cape Canaveral
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http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNW ( 330 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 33.0 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 38.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 11.5 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.63 in
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 03:18 PM |
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Re: 11:00am numbers
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um i think thats what beach said, only easier, she said -.3N which is really +.3 S
same end result tho
i said she, im not sure if that is right, he/she sorry beach whichever
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 03:23 PM |
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Re: 11:00am numbers
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I'm a he, the picture certainly doesn't help. lol
and you are correct, that is what I said.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 03:25 PM |
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Re: 11:00am numbers
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Quote:
not to be argumentative, but from 28.9N to 28.6 N in 12 hours is a drift south of .3...it has also ,as noted drifted from 79.3W to 79.6 W, also .3...this translates to a SW drift in the last 12 hours.
It is more of a relocate of the center.When you have a TS the center reforms alot but its really not a drift just them fixing where the center is.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 03:27 PM |
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Re: 11:00am numbers
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OK, I know about the ridging to the north and what not. However, it's very strange seeing this thing right off to my east. Someone explain to me why this thing can not come west. Starting to get a little spooked here.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 03:32 PM |
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Re: 11:00am numbers
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It liooks to me that the ridge to the north also hangs down on the west side some, this is keeping this thing from moving west, i think
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 03:35 PM |
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Re: 11:00am numbers
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Overall its a power comparison between the 2 anticyclones. There has been a walking speed wobble to the ssw over the last 12 hours but it means nothing. There was a upper low that was over the mid-atlantic yesterday that moved into Penns.... it felt the trough now entering the SE U.S. and has moved off the coast. Ophelia is now SSW of it and has been meandering that way cause it lost its N push from it and also the ridge over Nate is sliding ENE. So Currently there is a weak ridge over west-central florida into the gulf. Ophelia is on its eastern side with midlevel flow out of the NNE around the weak ridge. Now as the trough digs off the east coast tonight and into Friday, Ophelia will lose the ridge as it disipates and feel the trough. This should push her ENE Friday. Into the weekend expect most of the energy with this trough to move out to the NE leaving Ophelia behind near 75-76W and 29-30N, expect her Sunday to turn back to the ssw then w into Monday. She could be a Cat 3 by then but I dont expect anymore strengthning due to NE shear and wake waters that she caused over the last few days. Movement towards the Florida coastline with possible landfalls could take place Tuesday or Weds. Too far ahead for any projection, but from Jupiter-Charleston SC should keep tracking this...................................................
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 03:40 PM |
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Re: 11:00am numbers
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I can tell you here in South Kissimmee, I am getting a lot more wind off her than I was yesterday. Very breezy, very squally, if I did not know better, I would swear this thing is a lot closer to me today than it was yesterday.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 03:44 PM |
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Re: 11:00am numbers
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My Bad
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 03:45 PM |
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Re: 11:00am numbers
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nah,,,shes same distance (abouts) from ya, her wind field is expanding though. I expect her to become a hurricane as of 5pm today still as was forecasted 2 days ago.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 03:46 PM |
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Re: 11:00am numbers
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The banding is a little better formed than yesterday. Here in Palm Bay, we're getting more rain - yesterday, the bands seemed to dissipate before hitting us, or they'd drift further west.
I like the rain though, so I really can't complain. If she gets any closer though, I'll have to consider boarding up - just as a precaution.
| Missers |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 03:52 PM |
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Re: 11:00am numbers
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The MLB area discussion is interesting. The weather here is definetly worse today than yesterday.
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 04:21 PM |
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Re: 11:00am numbers
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There`s definately been a little south south west crawl to system over the last 12 hour accordind to the radar out of Melbourne. If it keeps that up for the next 24 hours we`ll have it sitting damn close to shore south county. I wonder what the surfs like right now down at Sebastion Inlet at the monster hole......Weatherchef
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 04:31 PM |
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Re: 11:00am numbers
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Quote:
I wonder what the surfs like right now down at Sebastion Inlet at the monster hole......Weatherchef
Don't know about MH, but 2nd light and points southward have been going off all day.
Latest Dvorak numbers I saw were 3.0/3.5, and Ophelia doesn't look all that good on sat/i.r., despite a decent blow up of convection to the south. Biggest difference here in coastal Ormond Beach are the stronger sustained winds. We had some decent gusts yesterday, but the sustained winds today are a bit higher.
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 04:33 PM |
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Crazy question
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Looking at the water vapor loop it appears...to my untrained eyes...that the NE area of convection is breaking away...for lack of a better term.
Is it possible that this is what the models may have been picking up on moving NE? Is it possible for that to break away & Ophelia begin her move W os SW or whatever the heck she's going to do? It is offically confirmed she's moved S some right?
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 04:40 PM |
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Re: Crazy question
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I dont think there is one single thing confirmed about this storm, cept that it is off the east coast...
but to answer yes, i think it is drifting south, east, west, and north
a little here and there which equals nothing.
I dont think it can move west right now cuz of the ridge...
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 04:40 PM |
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Re: Crazy question
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I was wondering that myself. Could be that some of the models picked up that piece of energy....maybe not. Doesn't seem to have an effect on the overall system right now.....interesting.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 04:55 PM |
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Re: Crazy question
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looking at the radar she is showing better structure on the west and south and maybe, just maybe the beginning of the ENE movement
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 04:55 PM |
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Re: Crazy question
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Looking at the radar out of Melbourne, The storm is exactly where it was 24 hours ago.
Good to see that the official track takes this one out to sea to the NE in the near future.
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 05:07 PM |
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Re: Crazy question
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Believe the 00Z CMC model run today showed Ophelia splitting. Not on 012Z run though. A most perplexing storm for sure.
| StormSurfer |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 05:40 PM |
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Re: Crazy question
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does it look like if she is trying to reorganize a little better from the latest loops? Looks like it to me. Also, looks like some of the cloud mass around the center is diggin in with a deep curve?
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 05:47 PM |
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Re: Crazy question
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Quote:
does it look like if she is trying to reorganize a little better from the latest loops? Looks like it to me. Also, looks like some of the cloud mass around the center is diggin in with a deep curve?
She looks like she is getting better organized on both radar and sat images. Check this out
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get...lette=spect.pal
| heartflower |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 05:58 PM |
Ophelia in Seminole County
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Can anyone tell me what exactly Seminole County residents should be expecting tomorrow out of Ophelia??? Right now I just see dark clouds covering the sunshine and blue skies that we normally see. Not much to speak of in the way of rain. I think we got some rain early this a.m. but haven't seen much but a little drizzle this after noon. I want to decide weather or not to send my kids to school tomorrow, basically. I do not have cable or satelite or anything, it's too expensive so I rely on the internet to get my weather primarily.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 06:04 PM |
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Re: Ophelia in Seminole County
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They can go to school,, there is no worries.
|
MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 06:22 PM |
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Re: Ophelia in Seminole County
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Eyes may be deceiving me, but it remains stationary, perhaps reforming slightly to the east of where it was before. There is no reason for Seminole to worry about tomorrow. It's mainly along the coast, and even there it isn't too bad. Erosion along Volusia county beaches is about the biggest worry at the moment.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 06:24 PM |
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GFDL, NOGAPS, UKMET, FSU
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..have it making a loop reaching cat.4-ish status and then weakening a little before heading toward the GA-FL-SC coast.
Ryan, I'm not sure where you got that information, but from first-hand experience I can tell you that isn't the case. There hasn't been a model to make this storm a category 3 storm, yet alone category 4. --Clark
| Bruce |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 06:29 PM |
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Re: Ophelia in Seminole County
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MikeC, I saw that to, and think it is also reforming the center a tad south and east.
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 06:29 PM |
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Re: 1:20 PM West Central Florida Discussion
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One of the best discussions I've seen on Ophelia thus far is the 1:20 PM West Central Florida (Ruskn) piece. Link is on the main page under Local Weather Outlooks/Discussions. Worth a read.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 06:31 PM |
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Re: 1:20 PM West Central Florida Discussion
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The 12Z GFS loops Ophelia twice before bringing it into the Carolinas in about 11 days. I have a feeling this is going to be around for awhile.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 06:34 PM |
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Re: 1:20 PM West Central Florida Discussion
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Ruskin link:
http://iwin.nws.noaa.gov/iwin/fl/discussion.html
Why is "sensible weather" so named?
| VolusiaMike |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 06:40 PM |
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Re: Ophelia in Seminole County
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The erosion along South Volusia County beaches is/will be extensive, but, Flagler County is having some problems also. Apparently two sections of State Road A1A have been washed out by the waves. Florida DOT is dumping coquina rocks into the pits, but it does not appear to be that successful in stopping the erosion.
Michael
| TAZMAN |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 06:41 PM |
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Re: 1:20 PM West Central Florida Discussion
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Have tom say that for the first time in while now... the models seem to be in agreement for the most part... not like they were yesterdayu.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 06:47 PM |
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Ophelia
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Ophelia continues to improve on satellite, as it is continually generating deep convection and there is evidence of an anticyclone building over the storm. There is a some lightning activity in the would-be western eyewall, but there isn't much going on in the eastern half of the storm at the moment. Wind speeds seem to be slowly increasing on radar. It is trying to intensify, but it will only intensify slowly until it can wrap some convection all the way around the center of the system.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 06:54 PM |
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Re: 1:20 PM West Central Florida Discussion
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Agreed to some extent on the convergence of th models, but still some very substantial outliers:
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/imagelinkbeta.asp?image=AL162005
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 06:57 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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On the radar, does it look like it is trying to form a new center of rotation just sw of the original one? I could be wrong...............
radar
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 06:58 PM |
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Re: 1:20 PM West Central Florida Discussion
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THAT WAS A GOOD DISCUSSION...CONSISTENT WITH SOME THINGS SAID HERE THIS MORNING.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 07:05 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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My guess would be that what you see is a sign of intensification and a closing off of the COC witrh convection. If it can maintain that structure the storm can now deepen a bit. Previous presentation suggested dry air into the center open on the north and east at times. The location of that COC seems to be a bit SW of the previous interpolated center in my opinion.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 07:15 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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One nice thing about having a stationary, developing tropical cyclone within radar range is that you can watch the thing evolve from a depression to potentially a hurricane on the radar, which is an evolution that we normally don't get to see. Now if it would just head out to sea after giving us this nice lesson.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 07:20 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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very nice RSO
Ophelia
looking at the outflow..... looks alot better this afternoon than this morning... would expect winds to be up in the 5pm adv... and near a hurricane (70-75mph) tonight at 11pm.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 07:31 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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Makes a nice presentation in the latest few visual frames ...could be near H1 now.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 07:43 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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on
AF300 0616A OPHELIA OB 07
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
on outbound leg
MF283 M0793 MF067
67kts.... at flight level!
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 07:49 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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Quote:
on
AF300 0616A OPHELIA OB 07
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
on outbound leg
MF283 M0793 MF067
67kts.... at flight level!
How do you converts kts to mph?
| Ed G |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 07:49 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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77.1022 mph
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 07:51 PM |
Getting Concerned
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I wasn't overyly concerned about Ophelia until today. To me, being the novice weather watcher that I am, would think that the longer she stays over open water, the stronger she's going to get. Can someone dampen my fear a little bit that she's not going to strengthen TOO MUCH? Charley, Frances and Jeanne scared the you know what out of me last year and we're 50 miles inland, pretty much due east of the Cape. We lost our roof between Francis and Jeanne. I really don't want to have to experience that again. Is there any reason she won't strengthen past a Cat 1? Please tell me there is...........
| FireAng85 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 07:52 PM |
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Re: Getting Concerned
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of course I meant due WEST of the Cape..... see what this stress is doing to me?
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 07:58 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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Multiply by 1.15. For example, 65 knots x 1.15=74.75 mph. 100 knots x 1.15=115 mph.
| moose47 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 07:58 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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Multiply knots by 1.15 to get the mph and then multiply by 0.9 to get the surface winds in mph. Basically the flight level winds in knots roughly correspond to the surface winds in mph. So 67 knots at flight level would be 77 mph. Since typically surface winds are 90% of the flight level winds, you get 69 mph at the surface. Someone correct me if I am wrong here....
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 08:02 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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Well most all of the global models 12z runs anyway take it into the fl ga border area after a loop...per the nogaps ukmet and gdfl.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 08:03 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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Thanks to all of the answers!
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 08:05 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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I believe that when they are flying at the 850mb level, as they have been so far with Ophelia, they use a 20% reduction in flight-level winds, so you would take the flight-level winds and multiply by 0.8 to get the estimated surface winds. When they are flying at the 700 mb level, they use a 10% reduction, so you would multiply by 0.9.
Those estimates may not be used if there is other evidence of the max surface winds. In this case, they can look at radar data as well to estimate the wind field.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 08:13 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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well almost a cane now
URNT12 KNHC 082001
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 08/19:43:50Z
B. 28 deg 34 min N
079 deg 27 min W
C. 850 mb 1316 m
D. 70 kt
E. 42 deg 015 nm
F. 130 deg 066 kt
G. 041 deg 012 nm
H. 985 mb
I. 19 C/ 1534 m
J. 24 C/ 1528 m
K. 24 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE
M. C15
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF300 0616A OPHELIA OB 09
MAX FL WIND 66 KT NE QUAD 19:40:00 Z MAX FL TEMP 25 C, 36 / 6NM
| moose47 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 08:17 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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Estimated surface winds of 70 knots? That would be 80 mph and would make it a hurricane. We'll see at 5:00 I guess.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 08:17 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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If the eyeballed wind estimate of 70 knots is accurate, it already is a hurricane, though it seems they usually don't seem to put a lot of weight on those wind estimates. I don't think they have sampled the SW quadrant of the storm yet, so it will be interesting to see if they can find stronger winds at flight-level.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 08:21 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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Wouldn't it be a little over 72 mph?
70kts x 1.15 x 0.9
| moose47 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 08:23 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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The 70 knots in this case is the estimated surface winds so no reduction is necessary. But it is afterall just an estimate. But if it is accurate (70 * 1.15 = 80.5 mph), it would be a hurricane. But we shall see.....
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 08:28 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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The "D" item in the vortex message is the estimate of surface wind speed by the onboard meteorologist. That is not the same thing as the maximum flight-level wind, which is noted at the bottom of the message. Human-estimated wind speed, even by a professional, is subject to quite a bit of error, so they usually don't seem to use that information very often.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 08:29 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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well they been in the southwest quad now
URNT14 KNHC 082023
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01298 10780 12507 11717 12020
02296 20782 22494 21515 11033
03295 30784 32492 31616 12026
04293 40786 42482 41818 13026
05291 50789 52468 51818 12031
06289 60791 62440 61717 13042
07288 70793 72381 72020 13054
MF287 M0793 MF066
OBS 01 AT 19:12:10Z
OBS 07 AT 19:39:00Z
OBS 01 SFC WND 10020
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01284 10797 12360 11616 32047
02282 20799 22428 21919 32074
03280 30801 32476 31616 32054
04278 40803 42485 41818 33045
05276 50803 52491 51818 32035
MF282 M0798 MF074 --74kts
OBS 01 AT 19:48:30Z
OBS 05 AT 20:07:30Z
OBS 05 SFC WND 29020
AF300 0616A OPHELIA OB 12
| moose47 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 08:35 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
When is the last time we had 3 hurricanes in the Atlantic? Granted, Maria may not be one by the time Ophelia is upgraded, whenever that may be, but I was just curious. The next several days are certainly going to be interesting to watch. I will echo the previous poster that said it was intriguing that we are watching a tropical depression - tropical storm - hurricane transition all on radar. Granted I hope it gets away from us now but it has been fascinating to watch it develop like it has.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 08:36 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
Well, I guess we'll find out for sure whether they are using 10% or 20% reduction in the flight-level winds, because 74 kts corresponds to hurricane force (67 kts) in the first case, but only a strong tropical storm (59 kts) in the latter case.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 08:38 PM |
|
|
Re: Ophelia
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This storm still appears to be drifting south. I know I am gonna hear a lot of people say it's just the center reforming, but think it has drifted a bit further south since 2 PM. Take a look at the West Central Florida Discussion, they seem to have their own ideas on this storm.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 08:46 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ophelia
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Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...28.6 N... 79.5 W. Movement
...Stationary. Maximum sustained winds... 75 mph. Minimum central
pressure... 985 mb.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 08:46 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
I'm doing a long recording of the Melbourne radar at http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?3
I had to do it quick, so I reused the spot I had for the Mobile cam from Katrina (it was messed up anyway). I just pointed the image animator software to the radar loc and will be recording it as long as it is in range. This will allow a long term view of the motion of the system. I just wish I was able to start it sooner.
I'm busy today and tonight, but hope to update some from New Smyrna Beach later.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 08:48 PM |
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|
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Re: Ophelia
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Its official She's a Hurricane Now..
| gvl, fl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 08:52 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
I was just outside (in Gainesville) and the winds up in the tops of the trees seemed like they must have been at least 25 mph, if not 30. It was enough to make me go inside with the dogs, out of fear of falling branches. In other words, the winds seem stronger now (with the last passing gusts) than I've seen thusfar with this storm. I'd guess either the wind field is expanding slightly or we just happened to catch a particularly strong wind band.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 08:53 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
|
Looks like they raised it to 65 kts based on the radar velocities. The official forecast is almost the same as the previous one, but with a little more westward movement at the end of the period as it begins to loop. Looks like this is going to be a threat to the coast, either in the short-term if it does not drift NE as anticipated, or in the longer term as the building ridge likely will steer it back towards the west.
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 09:08 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
|
If I parked like Ophelia for this long, they'd have towed me by now.
| Kattbyrde |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 09:08 PM |
Re: Ophelia
|
Anyone want to speculate on the possibility of a west motion and moving inland over Central Florida?
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 09:14 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
|
NO! It like drawing straws now. Any updates as to new predictions. The loop seems like a likely scenario, but it has to move to make a loop
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 09:14 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
|
I'd have to say no way. I've been worried about that all day. However, now it looks like the NHC doesn't think it's at all possible. I'm going with them and relaxing until she does or does not loop.
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 09:17 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
|
Quote:
I'd have to say no way. I've been worried about that all day. However, now it looks like the NHC doesn't think it's at all possible. I'm going with them and relaxing until she does or does not loop.
well NHC does think that is a possibility look at the 4-5 day warning cone
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 09:18 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
|
Sorry, I thought the poster was referring to it coming in soon and not shifting NE. My mistake.
| Kattbyrde |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 09:22 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
|
Actually, I was referring to it coming in sooner and not making the northeast turn. I live in Winter Springs, so not far from the coast, still recovering from last year's storms, so I also do not want to see it head this way. However, I would rather have her just go ahead and come in now as a minimum Cat 1, than to get out there, turn around and come back at us even stronger.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 09:26 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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If you look at the latest visible, I thinks I spy an Eye. Or at least part of one through the convection. Tad further east than I thought, unless I'm catching the right side.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 09:32 PM |
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|
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Re: Ophelia
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Hello Ophelia.
This has been an interesting storm to watch as it has progressed.
Very strange as well to have a hurricane so close to the coast and have only
tropical storm warnings up.
What happens with the recurve? Does it make it all the way to the coast?
| gvl, fl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 09:42 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
|
I see what looks like an appendage (almost like a boot) sticking out of the NW side of the storm, and extending up into Jax, at the end of the latest vis and ir loops. It looks kind of unusual to me. Does this feature indicate the storm is trying to grow in size?
| Anton Ross |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 09:44 PM |
|
|
UKMET and Ophelia
|
Being in Charleston (SC), I am not liking the way the UKMET looks.
Granted, we're still a ways out from Ophelia and her possible (probable?) recurve back towards CONUS, but how well has UKMET been working with times out this far?
I know that with Katrina it didn't do well at all until the storm had really gathered all its steam, but still.
Any opinions would be greatly appreciated...
Gracias.
/Anton
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 09:52 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
|
I was just watching the weather and the met from WPB said it was located 60-65 miles east of Daytona and is expected to not move very much over the next few days. He also said if it did go west that probably wouldn't happen before Tues. or Wed. It's gonna be a long week-end
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 09:54 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
I think Ophelia may have peaked for the time being... the latest recon shows no change in pressure and no longer indicates an eyewall. The storm does not look as organized on radar, either, and the radar velocities have come down somewhat. The cloud tops in the NW quadrant are warming... there may be some sort of dry intrusion developing up there.
As noted a couple of posts above by gvl, fl, I also noticed that something appears to be tugging the cloud tops in the far NW quadrant of the storm to the north. That may be an indication of the system that is going to try to pull Ophelia to the N and then NE.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 10:27 PM |
|
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Re: Ophelia
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Very strange interaction she is having with the dry air to the northwest. Literally like the humid bands are intermixing but reamining intact with the dry air.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 10:53 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
The kicker to help push Ophelia a little bit is coming, but I'm not sure I can see much of a northward motion just yet. There's an upper-level trough over SE Canada north of the Great Lakes with a shortwave trough along it extending down into Iowa (where an MCS has fired up today), but most of the forcing approaching the storm is extending from the NW to the SE. It's almost a similar upper-level scenario to Katrina, just with a much smaller magnitude. I wouldn't be surprised to see the northward motion of the storm relatively capped over the next day or so with the general motion being toward the east instead of northeast.
In any case, it's still a battle between the features over the US (now wanting to send it SE) and the weak upper-high near the Bahamas (now wanting to send it NE) making a slow movement to the east -- or just slightly north thereof -- likely over the next few days, starting tonight. No idea if such a motion would cause the ultimate landfall location to change significantly; that depends upon how strong a ridge builds back in north of the storm and if a trough slides by again to turn it more towards the north and west. The idea of a loop out at sea is a sound one, but there are still some differences on the location thereof; right now, I'd go a little further east than the NHC but not as far east as some of the model guidance.
Intensity forecast is largely unchanged...probably low-end category 2 in 4 days. If it heads back toward Florida (except for perhaps the Jacksonville area) in the long run, intensity will likely be capped due to upwelling and cooler shelf waters as it nears the coast.
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 10:53 PM |
Re: Ophelia
|
Looks like on Melbourne radar that she is starting to move ene. Look at the last frame on the loop then look at the time of the still frame. http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml
| GLT |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 11:00 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
Just some observations form Osteen, FL - ~25 miles from the coast.
Rain since Tuesday, mostly light but it has started to add up. Light rain this morning - then little rest up the day (I cooked ribs OUTSIDE).
About 4 PM winds picked up - as the storm was making hurricane status - estimate 30-35 MPH gusts.
I trust the models - BUT if this thing turned inland there would be a LOT of surprised people. I know that is unlikely but I like to plan as if anything could happen. I'm a little unhappy the way the media is telling everyone not to worry and it is ONLY at Cat 1. Only?
GLT
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 11:07 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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Quote:
Looks like on Melbourne radar that she is starting to move ene. Look at the last frame on the loop then look at the time of the still frame. http://radar.weather.gov/radar/latest/DS.p19r0/si.kmlb.shtml
In the absense of more information than a few radar images that are inconclusive, I have to disagree with you. It's looked like that before only to turn back to the SW a few hours later (net movement: ziltch). Actually what you are seeing is not the center moving but expanding one way or the other I think. The axis of rotation does not move at all in the radar loop, to my untrained eyes.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 11:07 PM |
|
|
Re: Ophelia
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Clark:
Looking at the latest Recon data, seems pessure is up 1MB and winds down some not buying those readings yet, but could this be caused by some upwelling she passing over same water again.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 11:21 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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Quote:
Clark:
Looking at the latest Recon data, seems pessure is up 1MB and winds down some not buying those readings yet, but could this be caused by some upwelling she passing over same water again.
I'm not Clark, but I'll throw this out: looking at the radar, I see concentric eyewalls on the west side of Ophelia. Can't see the east side of the circulation clearly (or there is no east eyewall)... but could it be an EWRC? In a Cat 1 hurricane, that seems very odd.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 11:30 PM |
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Re: Ophelia
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It could be, but it's more likely temporary fluctuations inside the core of the storm. It's a rather dry environment that the storm is embedded in and it appears a temporary lull in the wind shear around the storm may be coming to an end. While the Gulf Stream has some of the warmest, deepest waters in the basin, they can't support a storm forever. It'll be tough to make a call on the storm now as to whether upwelling is playing a role, but much longer in the same area -- or a trip away and then back -- and it'd be a much easier distinction to make. For now though, the storm doesn't look quite as impressive as it did earlier today.
It looks to be more of a breakdown of the eyewall as opposed to concentric eyewalls. It's not uncommon for hurricanes of all intensities to undergo eyewall replacement cycles; you just see it more often with intense storms as they are able to maintain their eyewalls for longer periods of time than weaker storms are (which often go through phases of trying to define a better eyewall as opposed to true replacement cycles) able to do so.
| crpeavley |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 11:54 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
|
The forcasters out at Tampa Bay have an interesting perspective on how the models are forcasting Ophelia's track, specifically their reliance on the upper level (above 500 mb) steering flow rather than the mid and low level flow, and even saying Ophelia could sit still for another day and totally miss the westerlies.
Could we get some other mets to comment on this?
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 08 2005 11:59 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Quote:
and low level flow, and even saying Ophelia could sit still for another day and totally miss the westerlies.
please say that's not gonna happen, Clark.... please!!!
Anything is possible at this point, in my opinion, though.
| WXMAN RICHIE |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 12:30 AM |
|
|
Local WPB Meteorologist
|
645pm EDT Thursday September 8, 2005
Based on GFS, upper air analysis and satellite derived winds.
Latest advisories on Hurricane Ophelia are being issued by the NHC in Miami.
I had the chance to look at the satellite derived winds aloft water vapor loop from the SSEC web site..the 100-250mb and 500mb winds. They are of big interest to me in order to verify that a pure Northeast motion would start on Ophelia. The winds aloft at 500mb also the 400-600mb winds too! at about 35 north is westerly. Hurricane Ophelia seems to be hooked into the 100-250mb level while a dry southern dry boundary on water vapor loop streaches across the 30 north latitude basing on the water vapor wind derived satellite products. The issue here is whether Ophelia does go Northeast or will it go more easterly. In this situation it is critical to see what the wind flow is aloft to the north of Ophelia namely about the 35 north latitude. Using the known case studies made from the old Eastern Airlines (disbanded old aviation weather forecast team) weather textbook that I use for these critical and almost difficult situations, "Weather Forecasting for Aeronautics" By J. J. George in the tropical movement of cyclones and using the 500mb as guidance with this situation would basically take Ophelia by extrapolation more East-northeast if there was a motion than just Northeast. If this is the case then we need to be more concerned then a pure northeast motion. Any weather numerical model that takes this East-Northeast to East such as Jeanne of last year when it was out in the Atlantic would be a problem since the loop forecast that is expected would loop it back to Florida instead of farther up the U.S. coast.
There is no defined controlling feature such in this case and with a frontal dry boundary north of it aligned west to east. Since now the fall like westerlies at mid to upper levels has already taken place. A Westerly flow a little farther north in Latitude is not the same as a fully developed trough that would provide a more southwest flow and being or being captured by a more pronounced deeper trough. The trough in my expert opinion that officially was talked about is not going to be enough to take it all the way out far enough to the northeast. The situation as I see it is that Ophelia will be moving more with a more due east of northeast track then just Northeast as the GFS has it. Any models again that take it a more flatter east motion or ENE is my pick and I would throw out any models that take it Northeast as I see it now.. The westerly flow is over a large predominant area in the northern latitudes especially looking at about 5-7 degrees to the north of Ophelia's latitude.
I do not know whether the data I looked at here at 1800z or 2pm has initialzed well enough for the GFS to move in the direction I feel it SHOULD do.. I think the official forecast for a more East Norteast slow motion is a fairly good one and the loop will more likely take place farther south in latitude then the GFS has it or any model for that matter.
So there you have it...also if Ophelia stays stationary for a longer period the likelihood that it would be pushed farther east northeast is less so or at least be a shorter distance to the Florida east coast. This needs to be watched very carefully..it is ironic but it seems that this is somewhat a similar situation as Jeanne of last year..this time much closer to the east coast of florida... all interests need to keep watch all along the East coast of Florida for the next 2 to 3 days and see how it moves...if it moves the way I think it will it is not that good for us..if it should move more northeast it is a little better as long as it goes far enough northeast when it loops it will remain somewhat hooked into the westerlies at mid to upper levels that when it loops it will loop and even if a southwest motion will come back and loop it will be farther up the the U.S. coast like Georgia or the Carolinas! We shall see.. I hope with my technical expertise that everyone understands the seriousness of this situation..Ophelia is not something to lay back but at least we are better prepared in the event it loops back to us.
GFS extrapolation of the winds aloft.....Outlook 72 to 120 hrs... Another very strong reinforcing high will build and impinge down on Ophelia keeping from going too far north in latitude early next week 72hrs or so...also the mean layer of the atmosphere will favor a push to the south to southwest beyond the 72hr period..and that certainly could be a problem for all of Eastern Florida...we will wait and see and pray...that there is a feature that will take it well away from us into the far atlantic...but now the fact is....it hasn't moved much at all all day through 5pm.!
Bottom Line............
The closer it stays to our coast the next 24-48hrs as the pattern transitions to the north the greater chance that Florida will be effected or be threatened or for that matter be battered by this cyclone over a longggggg time into next week!...I hope my discussion helps any official forecasters or any others on standby for emergency response....that are watching this storm carefully...!!!
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 12:31 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
|
Quote:
The forcasters out at Tampa Bay have an interesting perspective on how the models are forcasting Ophelia's track, specifically their reliance on the upper level (above 500 mb) steering flow rather than the mid and low level flow, and even saying Ophelia could sit still for another day and totally miss the westerlies.
Could we get some other mets to comment on this?
Did you hear that somewhere or did you read it? What exactly did they say? Do they think that it could sit out that long? I read that it should start to move n-eastward in 12 to 24 hours. What are the chances of that? It has been basicly in the same spot since yesterday.
| WisconsinWill |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 12:35 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
|
Quote:
The forcasters out at Tampa Bay have an interesting perspective on how the models are forcasting Ophelia's track, specifically their reliance on the upper level (above 500 mb) steering flow rather than the mid and low level flow, and even saying Ophelia could sit still for another day and totally miss the westerlies.
Could we get some other mets to comment on this?
Generally speaking, the more intense the tropical cyclone, the greater the depth of its core cyclonic circulation (from the surface to above 200mb in some of the most intense cases), so as intensity increases we look at an average of the winds over a greater vertical extent of the atmosphere when attempting to define the "steering currents." For example, check out the layer mean wind page here at UW:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html
You'll notice that the steering indicated for a weak cyclone (MSLP greater than 1000mb) is much different than for an intense one (MSLP less than 940mb). This process of reducing the atmosphere to a 2-dimensional flow-field is one of the reasons that barotropic models are still used for track guidance despite their great simplicity -- all in all, they work quite well, especially when the flow regime is well-defined and well-behaved as it usually is in the deep tropics. In the subtropics, things can get a little wacky as in the present case when a TC finds itself trapped in a very weak steering environment. Initial position and convective assymetries can have a part to play in determining the ultimate track in situations like this (and who can really predict where an individual convective cell is going to develop?). It's one of the reasons the global models do so much flip-flopping. When there is greater run-to-run continuity, that's usually a sign that the flow is evolving in a way that makes the track forecast less chaotic (and hopefully!) more reliable.
hope this helps,
Will
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 12:40 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
|
I was reading at another hurricane site that the storm may be weakening to Tropical Storm strength at this time. If so, our lady may very well be pulling a Hamlet maneuver. Which would not upset anyone I know personally
Just wanted to add that we just got a pretty stiff gust of wind. I guess the outer bands of what ever she is right now is making it to Polk County.
| WisconsinWill |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 12:48 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
|
Quote:
I was reading at another hurricane site that the storm may be weakening to Tropical Storm strength at this time. If so, our lady may very well be pulling a Hamlet maneuver. Which would not upset anyone I know personally
]
I hear you. I have family in SC (where I grew up and developed this hurricane addiction I now have) and they're not at all pleased to have to wait this thing out. After the events of the past several weeks, I think everyone hopes the westerlies sink south a little early this year.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 12:53 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
|
Yes, looks like dry air is getting the best of Ophelia now, and the convection as well as the overall appearance is waning. This happened yesterday, and she'll probably ramp up again tomorrow. Getting tired of waiting her out. Oh, off to watch football
| traceyd |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 01:19 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
|
Ok, I have a really dumb question. Looking at water vapor images, it appears that the western edge of the high to the north is breaking down as well. If this western edge break downs sooner than the northern portion of the high, could that cause the strom to move more northerly, similar to the convection in the GOM?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 01:25 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
|
It might, but the predominant flow from that area is towards the SE & ESE. That would tend to dampen any sustained northward motion. As noted a little while ago, a general east to east-northeast motion is likely at a slow rate of speed over the next 2-3 days. This is in agreement with the later forecast posted by WXMAN RICHIE a few posts back as well.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 01:33 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
|
Quote:
Ok, I have a really dumb question. Looking at water vapor images, it appears that the western edge of the high to the north is breaking down as well. If this western edge break downs sooner than the northern portion of the high, could that cause the strom to move more northerly, similar to the convection in the GOM?
It would seem to me that that would make Ophelia move WEST, not NORTH.... maybe I misunderstand what you're saying though.
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 01:34 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
|
The winds here in Orlando have noticeably picked up this evening. Not anything significant, however the winds are now more "steady"...different than what they have been for the past two days. Any thoughts or comments?
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 01:38 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
|
That's weird, because I'm just south of Melbourne, close to the intracoastal, and the breezes have been fairly light all day.
| traceyd |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 01:44 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
|
I agree it would be west and then north as the high would no longer be above it. I am definited not a met, just an observer. However, the western edge does appear to be breaking down quickly.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 01:46 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
|
looking at some sats and some local obs in florida.....i think the dry that is just to the north and west of her is moving closer to her than i first thought would happen.... i think we may see some weaken late tonight and on friday....and the upwelling will help too....looks like the dry air has made to tally-aplach. and still is moving to the se towards the ophelia....
WV sat
orange is Dry air at mid and upper levels of atmosphere.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 01:47 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
|
Quote:
I agree it would be west and then north as the high would no longer be above it. I am definited not a met, just an observer. However, the western edge does appear to be breaking down quickly.
On IR that's definately true right now, but not on radar. I suspect it might be diurnal, because it happened last night too. Might also be interaction with land? Who knows with this storm. It still does not appear to be going anywhere anytime soon.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 01:48 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
|
Yep, Ophelia is definitely hurting now. Dry air or upwelling , probably both are killing her. She will survive somehow I would think, but we are quickly getting half a storm.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 01:56 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
|
Quote:
Yep, Ophelia is definitely hurting now. Dry air or upwelling , probably both are killing her. She will survive somehow I would think, but we are quickly getting half a storm.
What hurricane are you looking at? Ophelia looked a LOT worse 24 hours ago than she does now, and 12 hours ago too I think.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 02:02 AM |
|
|
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
|
Before you say anything Ophelia could be downgraded to a TS. at 11:00 PM. wait before you judge.
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 02:15 AM |
|
|
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
|
Agree Old Sailor, still looking organized on radar, but we shall see when the next recon comes in. Also Steve H1, I am on S. Merritt Island and we have seen winds gusting in the upper 30s with a peak of 40 in the late afternoon in rain bands http://home.cfl.rr.com/h2ocean/weather/currentwx.gif
Also of interest, the barometer here has been up and down today, but the last hour or so, it has been slightly increasing more...hopefully that means a turn to the east or ne. Only time will tell....
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 02:20 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
|
Quote:
Before you say anything Ophelia could be downgraded to a TS. at 11:00 PM. wait before you judge.
True. It was not a 75mph hurricane when it looked much worse than it does now. Looking at the satellite I would not be shocked if it were down to 65-70. That's hardly "dead", though.
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 02:23 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary *DELETED*
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Post deleted by the ongoing active Atlantic multi-decadal signal
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 02:26 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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looks to me to be doing what the gdfl has it doing going due east but slow.If you look at the loops it looks to be slow crawl to the east IMO.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 02:31 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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OK, maybe "killing" was overstating it a bit, but she has lost much of her convection during the last 4 hours; has shrunk quite a bit. Still a TS no doubt, but how long can she sit and spin in this environment?
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 02:31 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Quote:
Please direct me to the site where the projected tracks from the different models are shown all together.
I'll take this post down ASAP...
Here are two sites....
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_16.gif
http://hurricane.methaz.org/cgi-bin/maps...473&img.y=2
With each new thread here on the board, we post links to several different model sites after the news article. There are a couple of such links with the current article, including a link to the excellent Colorado St. site with all of the major models (except the private FSU Superensemble) and their output. Just a heads-up. --Clark
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 02:35 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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still a cane....
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 28.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.3 WEST OR ABOUT 80
MILES... 130 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA.
OPHELIA IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A NORTHEASTWARD DRIFT IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES... 35 KM...
| gailwarning |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 02:40 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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So hurricane-force winds extending out 10 mi further than the last advisory? And do my untrained eyes detect some slight nnw movement?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 03:02 AM |
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ophelia in loiter mode
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maria heading out, nate following suit... by the end of the weekend we should be down to just ophelia in the basin. looks like the crawling ne motion has finally begun. track should be more or less in that general direction for the next couple of days, perhaps a little faster at times. i don't think the intensity will change a whole lot until it stalls again around sunday/monday. at that time, should be at roughly 30/76. forecast track i have in mind is more or less the official, just more exaggerated to the west at the end of the forecast period. whether the storm tracks back over upwelled waters should determine the end intensity... if it goes back to the east coast of florida it probably won't be very strong... ga or sc it might be a bit stronger. it'll probably come back to the coast between tuesday and thursday next week in the cat 1- cat 3 range. clark has it pegged as a cat 2 already and the philosophy looks good to that.
nothing doing elsewhere in the basin. mjo has reactivated and has become strongly inhibiting in the western hemisphere. mjo has been out of phase for most of the season... and it should keep the deep tropics quiet for much of this month if it persists like it is. with the strong highs and pattern-pulse near the eastern u.s. in play already that may dictate much of the remaining activity this month. enhancing mjo may get back around october and liven things back up.. but the rest of september may be a good deal quieter than the last couple of weeks.
HF 0303z09september
| berserkr |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 09:08 AM |
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Re: ophelia in loiter mode
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downgraded to TS strength at 65mph. The models are all over the place with this thing
| Ormond Suzie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 11:48 AM |
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Opelia taking aim at Savannah area?
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Haven't posted in ages, but the 5 a.m. NHC path has me concerned about my mother, who lives alone in Sun City Hilton Head just north of Savannah.
(I'm also posting as a bit of a "test" since I can't believe that no one else has posted for the last hour and a half.)
Skeetobite's map of the models seems a bit old now and I don't seem to be able to open some of the other spaghetti model sites listed at the top of this thread. Can anyone point me to alternate places that might have groupings of updated models. If I'm heading up to help my mother with a possible evacuation, I need to start making plans soon.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 11:52 AM |
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Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area?
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hard to make plans on a forcast that is 5 days out, especially when the models are not in agreement.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 12:00 PM |
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Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area?
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Suzie even the NRL page is not allowing its model page to be enlarged and needs updating. The best preliminary advice is to find out what the mets are saying that are up in your mother's area. You might go to the nearest NWS area forecast to see what the locals are saying about the weather conditions. This is the only thing anyone can do until the official forecast becomes more clear.
| SC Bill |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 12:06 PM |
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Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area?
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Suzie:
At least your mom has pretty direct access to I-95. Don't know how long she has lived there, but evacuations from Hilton Head can be pretty messy affairs with basically one way out. NWS Charleston is saying forecast doesn't "bode well" for SE GA and Southern SC, but too early to tell.
Don't know what your circumstances are in terms of having time to get to your mom and then have it turn out to be unnecessary, but I recall stories of folks sitting on highway 278 for 8-10 hours, so my advice is obviously watch carefully, but if you can, err on the side of "too soon".
Bill
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 12:06 PM |
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Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area?
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Quote:
Suzie even the NRL page is not allowing its model page to be enlarged and needs updating. The best preliminary advice is to find out what the mets are saying that are up in your mother's area. You might go to the nearest NWS area forecast to see what the locals are saying about the weather conditions. This is the only thing anyone can do until the official forecast becomes more clear.
The "official" forecast may not become clear for a week, unfortunately. FWIW I'm looking at the models on WeatherUnderground and they are up-to-date (2am, except for NOGAPS which is 8pm). The 8am runs aren't posted yet but it's only 8:05 ET, give them time. Looks like the models are putting Ophelia somewhere along the Georgia/South Carolina coast in 5-7 days, after a brief excursion out to sea.
Having said that, as of the 8am ET advisory... Ophelia is once again moving nowhere. She's stalled again!
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 12:09 PM |
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Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area?
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http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
The above link gives this information as of 7:00 am.
| Ormond Suzie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 12:13 PM |
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Re: Ophelia taking aim at Savannah area?
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"hard to make plans on a forcast that is 5 days out, especially when the models are not in agreement. "
No kidding! LOL!
Where my mother lives they STRONGLY suggest that they not wait till mandatory evacuations are announced, because the exit roads get so clogged by all the people coming off the one bridge from Hilton Head Island. (They direct the Sun City people across 278, going north a bit before going toward I-95.) Add to that lead time my half-day drive just to get to her house and you can see why I'm keeping a close eye on the situation.
(At least my question has proven that people are awake and reading. Ha!)
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 12:21 PM |
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Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area?
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Good Grief, the models on WU are such a mess I can't tell what that Bamm is doing. All I know is it has it in central Florida at some point..yikes. Can anyone else tell what's it's doing?
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200516_model.html
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 12:24 PM |
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Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area?
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The spagetti models are really spagetti for this storm:
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
A full 360 degree possibility of movement now!
| WisconsinWill |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 12:30 PM |
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Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area?
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Quote:
Good Grief, the models on WU are such a mess I can't tell what that Bamm is doing. All I know is it has it in central Florida at some point..yikes. Can anyone else tell what's it's doing?
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200516_model.html
You can see the text output for NHC's guidance suite here:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGHUR
It's not as visual as the graphics obviously, but you can pull out a tracking map and plot the model of your choice by hand.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 12:30 PM |
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Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area?
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Am I reading this right? It looks the the BAMM has it going SW from where she is. That can't be right. In other words it must be way off so I should ignore that for now correct?
http://weather.net-waves.com/model.php
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 12:58 PM |
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Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area?
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It has got to be frustrating to try and forecast this storm. Everyone on the east coast is waiting to see what she will do.
Are there any waves out there that are worth watching for development?
| richisurfs |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 01:05 PM |
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Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area?
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I'm no expert on this but its my understanding that the Bamm model is the least accurate. Everytime I look at models it seems to be going in some totally different direction than all the rest. My advice to you is not try to analyze all these on your own but listen and look at what the NHC is saying and projecting.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 01:12 PM |
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Re: Opelia taking aim at Savannah area?
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I think the Bamm was trying to make a tornado watch box.
Model soup right now. I think NHC's idea is currently best for a conservative basis. Maybe if motion remains settled today, the models can get a better grip on it. After she passes 30N, the forecast enters the twilight zone. I am hoping for the out to sea forecast; but it just seems like there are enough reasons for that not to happen. Can probabbly put ping pong balls with model names in a hopper and pull one out at the moment.
| jaxmike |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 01:45 PM |
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Strengthening Again?
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Latest recon shows minimum pressure at 983. This would be an 8 mb drop in the past few hours. Is she getting her act together, again?
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 01:55 PM |
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Re: Strengthening Again?
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Why is the 5am update the lastest update on the NHC web site? Where's the 8am update? What else did you find out besides the pressure? Please let me know. I can't tell if it still moving NE or not. Thanks
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 02:05 PM |
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Re: Strengthening Again?
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200516.public.html
try this
| jaxmike |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 02:16 PM |
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Re: Strengthening Again?
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Quote:
Why is the 5am update the lastest update on the NHC web site? Where's the 8am update? What else did you find out besides the pressure? Please let me know. I can't tell if it still moving NE or not. Thanks
The normal updates are done every 6 hours at the 5's and the 11's. They do intermediate brief updates on the 2's and 8's though when a storm is a threat to land. After checking the NHC site I realized that the 8AM is not showing up, so, I would suggest looking on the front page of this site where it lists the information for the active storms.
The pressure I found on the links to the recon data on this site.
Seems to not be moving at all again.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 02:27 PM |
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Re: Strengthening Again?
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Does anyone know what happens if she stalls again this early? It wasn't taken into account was it? From this a.m. disco it refers to slow movement to the NE for a day or two! If she stalls now will it help to send her out to sea or could it mean trouble sooner for someone on the coast? I don't really understand the ridging well enough to figure it out on my own.
Also, do you think she's stalling or just moving very slow?
| Reaper |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 02:34 PM |
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Re: Strengthening Again?
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000
URNT12 KNHC 091355
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1326Z
B. 29 DEG 21 MIN N
78 DEG 53 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1285 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 024 DEG 51 KT
G. 315 DEG 49 NM
H. 984 MB
I. 21 C/ 1560 M
J. 23 C/ 1638 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 0916A OPHELIA OB 14
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 67 KT SE QUAD 1332Z
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 02:39 PM |
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Re: Strengthening Again?
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Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 09, 2005
...Ophelia moving away from the U.S coast...for now...
at 11am EDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning for the East Coast
of Florida from Sebastian Inlet northward to Flagler Beach...and a
the tropical storm watch from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina
Beach have benn discontinued.
Interests from northern Florida through the Carolinas should closely
monitor the progress of Ophelia during the next few days.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Ophelia was
located near latitude 29.5 north...longitude 78.9 west or about
130 miles...east of Daytona Beach Florida.
Ophelia is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph and this
motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Ophelia
has the potential to become a hurricane later today or Saturday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles from the
center.
Latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA reconnaissance
plane was 983 mb...29.03 inches.
A high risk of dangerous rip currents exists from Florida northward
through the Carolinas.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...29.5 N... 78.9 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 5 mph. Maximum sustained winds...65
mph. Minimum central pressure... 983 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
5 PM EDT.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 02:40 PM |
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Re: Strengthening Again?
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Wait a minute....984 mb??? She must be strengthening or there is a typo. Is she a hurricane again? Seems pretty much still sstationary. Where has E. Dunham been with this storm? Does he have an opinion on this?
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 02:40 PM |
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Re: Strengthening Again?
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Notice it says 2 things it is moving and then it says "for now" still think this is going to the GA coast IMO.
the NHC has it going into GA SC border Late tues or early wed.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 02:42 PM |
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Re: Strengthening Again?
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5-day out...Charleston/HH landfall.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200516_5day.html
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 02:47 PM |
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Re: Strengthening Again?
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Quote:
Wait a minute....984 mb??? She must be strengthening or there is a typo. Is she a hurricane again? Seems pretty much still sstationary. Where has E. Dunham been with this storm? Does he have an opinion on this?
If you read the 11am disc they explain why the pressure and then winds.But if they don't find the winds they can't just up it due to pressure.So its a TS till they say otherwise.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 02:55 PM |
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Re: Strengthening Again?
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It looks like there is high pressure coming out of the NE. According to the time it gets here that is what is sterring it into the Carolinas. What if that high comes faster? Will it be a different sterring path? Follow the link of the gfs
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 03:09 PM |
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Re: Strengthening Again?
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The models are now narrowing from a bowl of spaghetti to a giant beach ball aimed somewhere between Miami and Hatteras. There is now consensus that the storm will not go out to sea. Now is the time the next few days that a coastal landfall zone will begin to narrow. Look for trends over time (as an example the GFDL has shifted its landfall from Charleston SC, to Savannah, to now just north of JAX the last 3 runs). It all likely depends how far north and how far offshore the big O gets, before we'll know with greater certainty. Remember, the global models just a few days ago had her drifting NW to just offshore JAX, and we know she just sat off of the Cape for more than 24 hours. So...........
| raine |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 03:09 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Hi everyone, I am new here, getting a little worried about the storm. I live in Augusta GA. Does anyone know how this storm could affect us here. I have never been in one this close. Only rain and some wind from Hugo in western NC. which was not alot. I am not really sure what I need to do to prepare my family, if this storm comes close or over us. We are about 140 miles from Hilton Head and Savannah. Thanks for any info.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 03:36 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Raine, you are far enough inland to where you should not have to worry too much... the worst you would likely have to worry about would be tropical storm conditions (heavy rain, winds 40-50 mph). As long as you are in a sturdy building, there shouldn't be too much to worry about. Flooding might be another concern, but it is too early to tell how much of a heavy rain threat Ophelia will be when and if it comes inland.
| prideman |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 03:37 PM |
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Re: Strengthening Again?
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Quote:
It looks like there is high pressure coming out of the NE. According to the time it gets here that is what is sterring it into the Carolinas. What if that high comes faster? Will it be a different sterring path? Follow the link of the gfs
News here in Myrtle Beach area are saying it will be upgraded to hurricane status again on the next advisory. Also telling everyone to get prepared early in case evacuation is called. Watching it real close. This thing could really do about anything it wants right now. I remember it was a High in the NE that steered Hugo our way, but Hugo took aim far out and made a straight shot at us at high speed.
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 03:42 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Raine,
Suggest you go to the Augusta GA Emergency Managment site for information relative to Disaster Preparedness, notices, etc. This far out it's impossible to tell what, if any, effects you'll see from Ophelia but being prepared and having a plan, just in case something happens, will set your mind at ease.
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 03:46 PM |
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Re: Strengthening Again?
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But what if the high comes out of the NE faster then the models are showing?
| wiley |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 03:49 PM |
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Re: Strengthening Again?
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Anyone know what's up with the NHC website??? It's still listing 5 am info.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 03:57 PM |
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Re: Strengthening Again?
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The person who updates the NHC site is on his lunch break....supersizing his fries.LOL, Anyways they might have a update problem on their info there. Try other links.
| raine |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 04:04 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Thanks guys for the info. I hope if it does not come this way, and that the rain will not be bad if it does, I live in a very sturdy stucco home, but our sub. has problems with flooding, We had special drainage put in( $15,000) to keep the water flow from coming to the house. We can get hard rains now and the drainage ditch will overflow, my front yard looks like a lake and our poor neighbors get it bad to. I will go to GA Ema site. And I will also keep updated from everyones posts here. Thanks again, Raine
PS. Do not know about storms alot.. But I have a very stupid question.. Can the storm travel up the savannah river.. I know this is a stupid question, sorry
| SC Bill |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 04:13 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Does anyone have a link to an intensity forecast? 5 am discussion referenced, I believe, SHIPS taking it to a major in 36 hours. Any consistency on that?
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 04:14 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Raine, whether the storm moves over the river or not, it would weaken substantially by the time it gets 100 miles inland. The river makes no difference. These storms need much, much larger bodies of warm water to sustain themselves.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 04:23 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Bill, it's the GFDL that has been making Ophelia a major hurricane in the last few runs, though it weakens the system from its peak intensity before bringing it onshore. The SHIPS model has consistently been capping the intensity at cat 1. I believe the official forecast brings the system to 75 knots before landfall, with the usual error bar on either side of that estimate.
The 12Z GFS brings the system into the NC outer banks from the south in about 120 hours. While the GFS has had a tendency to be further north and east than the other models with Ophelia, people in North Carolina should obviously keep an eye on this system as well. Tropcial systems have a way of finding themselves there, it seems.
| OcalaKT |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 04:44 PM |
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Re: NCH Website
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Quote:
Anyone know what's up with the NHC website??? It's still listing 5 am info.
NHC Website now updated with 11:00 a.m. info.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 04:46 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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12z GFS brings this storm up the coast to New England now, hugging the coast up to Maryland, then toward BOX. Also, it is developing lows in the longer range off Africa.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 04:55 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Steve,
Do you have a link...clicking on GFS goes to the FSU site which has only 06 data.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 05:00 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Quote:
12z GFS brings this storm up the coast to New England now, hugging the coast up to Maryland, then toward BOX. Also, it is developing lows in the longer range off Africa.
im looking at gfs and it doesn't shwo that at all it's showing Ohelia going into the GA/SC region
EDIT: they just said on TWC the track is very uncertain and that the majority of the easst coast should watch Ophelia's movements over the next few days.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 05:10 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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I dont like to go against the models but I cant see how this will get too far N in the short run. Right now the best idea is along with the models and thats for it to get up to near 31N and 76W on Sat afternoon. Then be pushed down to 29.5-30N by sunday evening then move w towards florida and georgia monday with landfall Tuesday-Weds between Fl-Ga boarder and HH S Carolina. Thats my current forecast but I still have 24-36hours before I will make it official too look at more data for my 3 day forecast.
Anyways I said above I dont think this will go much more N for somereason. It might get up around 31N but my guessing (before the loop) is 25% chance 31N or more,,,50% around 30-31N and even 25% chance it stays just near or under 30N. Reason I say thats also a possibilty is that the troughs southern extent is more of a E-W flow and then quickly becomes NW-SE and should impact her tomorrow. Also there is a upper low that might want to try to hold (although very slight ) down to her SE near Hispaniola... this might want her to not move as fast during the next 36 hours as the 00z and 12z runs show. By time the upper low moves to just N of Cuba Saturday into Sunday the trough will be off the east coast as ridging will be building in stoping any ENE movement that was slight. Then she will wobble S then SW then W from 30N on Sunday, 28.5-29 on Monday then ( just a odd speculation) threatning Tuesday into Weds Daytona,Fl -Savanah. Climatology does come in where it would say No that storms hardly come in from that way, kinda like W-Central Florida.Note Charley was considerd Sw Florida. Anyways there is a thinking to consider. Movement will be slower then the models show over the next 36 hours mainly due to the fact of the upperlow having a slight affect on her over the next 24-36 hours and the trough axis has more of a e-w then nw-se Saturday evening.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 05:16 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Ophelia should become a hurricane again by 5pm if not 2pm. Winds support possibly 80mph but they might just have it as 75mph.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 05:23 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/index_m.shtml
Plop that into your browser and go down the center column.
| gogogabby007 |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 05:25 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Hi, I'm new here and really enjoy reading everyone's postings. My question is: with all this new data, is it completely out of the question that Ophelia will enter of the GOM? Thanks, Gabby.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 05:26 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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I don't see how it would go that far north either Scott (NOGAPS now shows further north) and I was looking at the ULL in the Caribbean as well. As the ULL moves west it may allow a WSW opening if the ridge is strong and to the NW and if SHE stays around 30W. I'm real curious as to where she'll be in 36 hours.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 05:45 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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well right now, my current thinking is along the lines of moving her to 31N before the turn but wouldnt suprise me if shes like just over 30-30.5N Just matters how fast the trough is moving and how much influence is with the ULL.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 05:57 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Quote:
I dont like to go against the models but I cant see how this will get too far N in the short run. Right now the best idea is along with the models and thats for it to get up to near 31N and 76W on Sat afternoon. Then be pushed down to 29.5-30N by sunday evening then move w towards florida and georgia monday with landfall Tuesday-Weds between Fl-Ga boarder and HH S Carolina. Thats my current forecast but I still have 24-36hours before I will make it official too look at more data for my 3 day forecast.
Anyways I said above I dont think this will go much more N for somereason. It might get up around 31N but my guessing (before the loop) is 25% chance 31N or more,,,50% around 30-31N and even 25% chance it stays just near or under 30N. Reason I say thats also a possibilty is that the troughs southern extent is more of a E-W flow and then quickly becomes NW-SE and should impact her tomorrow. Also there is a upper low that might want to try to hold (although very slight ) down to her SE near Hispaniola... this might want her to not move as fast during the next 36 hours as the 00z and 12z runs show. By time the upper low moves to just N of Cuba Saturday into Sunday the trough will be off the east coast as ridging will be building in stoping any ENE movement that was slight. Then she will wobble S then SW then W from 30N on Sunday, 28.5-29 on Monday then ( just a odd speculation) threatning Tuesday into Weds Daytona,Fl -Savanah. Climatology does come in where it would say No that storms hardly come in from that way, kinda like W-Central Florida.Note Charley was considerd Sw Florida. Anyways there is a thinking to consider. Movement will be slower then the models show over the next 36 hours mainly due to the fact of the upperlow having a slight affect on her over the next 24-36 hours and the trough axis has more of a e-w then nw-se Saturday evening.
For a few days now and a few pages back i posted that my thinking was the GA FL border,Now what i use to base it on is the same thing i used when i said that Kat would hit the LA miss area when it left the Fl coast which is a blend of the GDFL runs and blend them with old runs.
When Katrina went off the florida coast the gdfl had the right track a day before then changed as it went along.
The other day the gdfl had it going to the GA Fl border and my thinking is it has it now moving faster then what it is and will be doing.
So just like with Katrina ill go with what worked last storm and for 2 days now been saying this will hit the GA FL border as a cat 1-2 storm and error range up to the GA SC border and as low as Daytona beach.
| Adam |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 06:10 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Quote:Quote:
I dont like to go against the models but I cant see how this will get too far N in the short run. Right now the best idea is along with the models and thats for it to get up to near 31N and 76W on Sat afternoon. Then be pushed down to 29.5-30N by sunday evening then move w towards florida and georgia monday with landfall Tuesday-Weds between Fl-Ga boarder and HH S Carolina. Thats my current forecast but I still have 24-36hours before I will make it official too look at more data for my 3 day forecast.
Anyways I said above I dont think this will go much more N for somereason. It might get up around 31N but my guessing (before the loop) is 25% chance 31N or more,,,50% around 30-31N and even 25% chance it stays just near or under 30N. Reason I say thats also a possibilty is that the troughs southern extent is more of a E-W flow and then quickly becomes NW-SE and should impact her tomorrow. Also there is a upper low that might want to try to hold (although very slight ) down to her SE near Hispaniola... this might want her to not move as fast during the next 36 hours as the 00z and 12z runs show. By time the upper low moves to just N of Cuba Saturday into Sunday the trough will be off the east coast as ridging will be building in stoping any ENE movement that was slight. Then she will wobble S then SW then W from 30N on Sunday, 28.5-29 on Monday then ( just a odd speculation) threatning Tuesday into Weds Daytona,Fl -Savanah. Climatology does come in where it would say No that storms hardly come in from that way, kinda like W-Central Florida.Note Charley was considerd Sw Florida. Anyways there is a thinking to consider. Movement will be slower then the models show over the next 36 hours mainly due to the fact of the upperlow having a slight affect on her over the next 24-36 hours and the trough axis has more of a e-w then nw-se Saturday evening.
For a few days now and a few pages back i posted that my thinking was the GA FL border,Now what i use to base it on is the same thing i used when i said that Kat would hit the LA miss area when it left the Fl coast which is a blend of the GDFL runs and blend them with old runs.
When Katrina went off the florida coast the gdfl had the right track a day before then changed as it went along.
The other day the gdfl had it going to the GA Fl border and my thinking is it has it now moving faster then what it is and will be doing.
So just like with Katrina ill go with what worked last storm and for 2 days now been saying this will hit the GA FL border as a cat 1-2 storm and error range up to the GA SC border and as low as Daytona beach.
Im fron Hilliard, a little town on the FL/GA border and 25 miles inland, I have been watching the GFDL runs for the past 3 runs and have been thinking for a while that the NHC track made the loop too aggressive and taking to far north. So it will be interesting to see where she is in 24-26 hrs
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 06:17 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Gabby,
If you check the NHC 1100 strike probality list or alternatively check the strike probability map on Weather Underground, you'll see the NHC 72 hour probability locations range from Atlantic City, NJ down the east coast, south to Cuba, up the Florida Gulf coast and across the Florida Panhandle to Mobile!! That shows how much of a handle the NHC feels the models have on Ophy's ultimate direction and destination. The old gal is still an enigma and probably will be for the next 24 to 36 hours. Be interesting to see how long it takes the models to come into agreement.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 06:18 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Scott and Ralph, it that the center of circulation on the long range Melb radar? If so, does it look like she's going more ene then ne now? Or does it just look that way?
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml
EDIT! Nevermind, now she looks like NE....ROFL! I swear if I refresh too often I start seeing things.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 06:29 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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I noticed that the models have changed and have the storm going up the coast anywhere from GA to NJ. How many model runs does the NHC need to see before they adust their track, 3 day & 5 day bubbles.
Not concerned here in Delray, just curious
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 06:39 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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How come NHC still (@ 2:38pm) does not have the 2pm Public Advisory information up yet??? What's going on?
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 06:40 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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My thinking is this: the projected path has changed so much since the wave developed into a storm then hurricane then storm again, I think we'll know were shes going when she gets there. You know that the path will change again at 5pm.
URNT12 KNHC 091740
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1709Z
B. 29 DEG 41 MIN N
78 DEG 36 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1281 M
D. NA
E. NA
F. 022 DEG 60 KT
G. 349 DEG 32 NM
H. 983 MB
I. 18 C/ 1516 M
J. 24 C/ 1659 M
K. 19 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE
M. C10
N. 12345/8
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 0916A OPHELIA OB 37
MAX FL WIND 72 KT OUTBOUND SW QUAD 1721Z
GOOD RADAR PRESENTATION
82 mph winds should ophelia be a "cane" again
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 06:41 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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The 11:00 disc said the next advisory will be at 5:00. I thinks it's because she's no threat for the time being.
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 06:42 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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At the 11am on the bottom said they will advise at 5pm. Its going away from land.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 06:42 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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2 and 8pm are for watches and warnings,,there are none as of now.
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 06:46 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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I see at the bottom of the 11am it says next one at 5pm....what happened to the interim 2pm?
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 06:47 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Scott,
Looks like the mets at NWS in Ruskin (West Central Florida) agree with you per their 1:30 PM discussion. IMO, they're the best NWS site in Florida in their presentation and documentation. Link's on the CFHC main page under Local Weather Outlooks/Discussions.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 06:52 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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so does that mean that Tampa and west central florida are pretty much all clear with ophelia?
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 07:00 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Maybe this will help.... info on advisories.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/help/tcp.shtml?NEXTADV#REPEAT
scroll to the bottom.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 07:02 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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i really hope she doesnt follow the spaghetti model plots for A98E, BAMD, and BAMM...becuase that could mean some problems for us up here in the NE..MID-ATL. region.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 07:07 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Not so sure about the Ruskin thinking. The newest models tend to be more north and east. Wouldn't be surprised if the NHC track is adjusted accordingly at 5.
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/imagelinkbeta.asp?image=AL162005
| jaxmike |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 07:07 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Quote:
I see at the bottom of the 11am it says next one at 5pm....what happened to the interim 2pm?
Might not be doing the supplemental update because the cyclone is not an imminent (sp) threat to land.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 07:13 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Quote:
i really hope she doesnt follow the spaghetti model plots for A98E, BAMD, and BAMM...becuase that could mean some problems for us up here in the NE..MID-ATL. region.
i meant to put what do people think of this, like can it happen...and also...LBAR model looks good..haha out to sea pleaseee
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 07:19 PM |
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Moving SE?
|
The last few frames of both the IR loop from the NHC and also the IR loop out of Melbourne suggest a SE component to Ophelia's driftt. This is especially interesting when you watch the water vapor imagery from the NHC because it sure seems like she is getting pushed SE. Granted, its only a few frames. Still, hoping this is not the loop beginning already!
| jaxmike |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 07:21 PM |
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3:15 Eastern
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Am I seeing some impressive images from the satellite with this storm? Seems to me like there is some impressive convection popping south of the COC. Is it almost wrapped around the center now? Is this thing back to hurricane strength? Also, is it just me, or is it STILL moving slower and less decisively than forecast?
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 07:21 PM |
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Re: Moving SE?
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Was just going to post that...seems to struggle to get past 30...maybe underestimating the force of that ridge?See if it persists I guess.
| jaxmike |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 07:22 PM |
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Re: Moving SE?
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Quote:
The last few frames of both the IR loop from the NHC and also the IR loop out of Melbourne suggest a SE component to Ophelia's driftt. This is especially interesting when you watch the water vapor imagery from the NHC because it sure seems like she is getting pushed SE. Granted, its only a few frames. Still, hoping this is not the loop beginning already!
I think what you are seeing is an increase in convection to the south. I believe, but am not totally sure, that the center is still moving SLOWLY to the ENE right now.
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 07:31 PM |
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Re: Moving SE?
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I think what you are seeing is an increase in convection to the south. I believe, but am not totally sure, that the center is still moving SLOWLY to the ENE right now.
You might be right but look at the Melbourne radar.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kmlb.shtml
I dunno, looks at least E if not ESE. Not seeing the Northward movement. At least not yet.
| Adam |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 07:33 PM |
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Re: Moving SE?
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Quote:Quote:
The last few frames of both the IR loop from the NHC and also the IR loop out of Melbourne suggest a SE component to Ophelia's driftt. This is especially interesting when you watch the water vapor imagery from the NHC because it sure seems like she is getting pushed SE. Granted, its only a few frames. Still, hoping this is not the loop beginning already!
I think what you are seeing is an increase in convection to the south. I believe, but am not totally sure, that the center is still moving SLOWLY to the ENE right now.
I agree she is really looking impressive, I think the convection on the S side of the storm gives the illusion of a SE drift, but she is still moving sloowww, cant figure out why all the models have been moving further east and north all day, guess we will see.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 07:35 PM |
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Re: Moving SE?
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i agree there maybe be a little east movement.... maybe a slight SE step.... i how ever think that the turn may be sooner than forecasted.... look at this WV loop and notice the Dry air build up over Kent.-Tenn... thats pushing SE towards Ophelia.... i think she may move more east and maybe a little south... well see...
*also look how far that dry air got into the GOM off the panhandle of Fla...hmm...
Water Vapor
| Adam |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 07:41 PM |
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Re: Moving SE?
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after looking at the long range rader i think there is some validity to a slight E maybe even ESE movement.
| disneyfanfl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 07:41 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Ed,
I think CoalCracker is making his point that the models don't have the best handle on things, so he understands the models have been trending north and east but still thinks this in spite of what the models show. From what I've heard, it's the too fast NNE movement they are relying on that makes it trends up to SC, NC, etc. I'm thinking Georgia, probably GA/FL border about 31N.
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 07:43 PM |
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Re: Moving SE?
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Quote:
i agree there maybe be a little east movement.... maybe a slight SE step.... i how ever think that the turn may be sooner than forecasted.... look at this WV loop and notice the Dry air build up over Kent.-Tenn... thats pushing SE towards Ophelia.... i think she may move more east and maybe a little south... well see...
*also look how far that dry air got into the GOM off the panhandle of Fla...hmm...
Water Vapor
Hard to tell right yet. But, having watched her on the Melbourne site for two days straight, this is the most consistent display of movement I've seen in 72 hours.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 07:51 PM |
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Re: Moving SE?
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Someone tell me what it means if she's going ESE...LOL! She's still on the Melb radar. Waaaaayyy too close to be doing anything goofy now. Also, while checking the wv loop I noticed that swirl going towards the bahamas. That's nothing right? Ok, I think total paranoia has set in...LOL!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
| jaxmike |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 07:55 PM |
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Re: Moving SE?
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Quote:
Someone tell me what it means if she's going ESE...LOL! She's still on the Melb radar. Waaaaayyy too close to be doing anything goofy now. Also, while checking the wv loop I noticed that swirl going towards the bahamas. That's nothing right? Ok, I think total paranoia has set in...LOL!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html
This is a total guess (I am in no way a Wx), but that could just be standard afternoon thunderstorm activity. However, it could also be feeder bands wrapping around the storm more to the south. If it organizes itself with all it currently has to work with I think it could be a nice sized storm. The shear is still present, but I think the storm itself is growing in size, if not strength.
| AgentB |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 08:10 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Been watching Ophelia all morning, and she's definitely north and east of where she was early this morning(looks a bit more east than north though). At first she didn't seem to be moving that fast, but appears to me, based on the sats/charts I've looked at, that she's picked up just a bit more speed in the recent hours. Now we'll just be watching to see where the loop begins.
| Kattbyrde |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 08:13 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Does anyone think she may be starting the loop now?
I'm a brand new observer, so still learning how to read the radars, etc.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 08:15 PM |
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Re: Moving SE?
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The Vortex data AND the radar loop all suggest ENE at 4-5mph. The WV shows a sharp W to E flow ahead so it may be nearly maxed out on latitude until the loop occurs.
The ULL from the SE has a strong westerly flow with it so if it does not gain much latitude there is some cause for concern in the Florida peninsula after the loop. Im not sure how much that ULL has played into the model calculations.
I agree it will be reclassified to Cat 1 this p.m. I don't think cat 1 is its limit, but not more than 2.
Will see how the strom progesses in latitude before I buy a solution as far as South Carolina.
| jaxmike |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 08:22 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Quote:
Does anyone think she may be starting the loop now?
I'm a brand new observer, so still learning how to read the radars, etc.
Honestly, no. But it's still way too early to tell for sure.]
| jaxmike |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 08:26 PM |
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Re: Moving SE?
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Quote:
The Vortex data AND the radar loop all suggest ENE at 4-5mph. The WV shows a sharp W to E flow ahead so it may be nearly maxed out on latitude until the loop occurs.
That was my take on the motion as well. I have been watching the WV loop for a few days now and at no point did I see this thing getting very high (latitude wise). I don't think it's going to make it as far north as is forcast, which is bad news for me here in JAX.
Quote:
The ULL from the SE has a strong westerly flow with it so if it does not gain much latitude there is some cause for concern in the Florida peninsula after the loop. Im not sure how much that ULL has played into the model calculations.
I think it has been under represented, It's looking pretty healthy today through my untrained eyes. I really don't want to have to go through a hurricane living 4 miles from the beach, right on the St. Johns river..
Quote:
I agree it will be reclassified to Cat 1 this p.m. I don't think cat 1 is its limit, but not more than 2.
Will see how the strom progesses in latitude before I buy a solution as far as South Carolina.
For the most part I agree. However, I would not be suprised to see it reach 2, but I don't think its going higher than a low three max.
| Kattbyrde |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 08:28 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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What is that is going to make her go North after the loop. I tend to agree with some of you that the projections are too far north. Do they think the ridge that is causing her to loop will become weaker?
Sorry if I'm asking dumb questions, but again, I'm a novice at this.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 08:33 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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now people seeing loops LOL...... the 5pm is out she is a hurricane again and still truging along as they have said NE at 6-7 so sorry no loop yet/ Pressure down a little.
Winds back to 75 and the track about the same but the cone is way north now.
How far west the hurricane will go
depends on the ability of each model in forecasting the intensity
of the high to the north of Ophelia. We are putting all the bets in
the formation of the high and the official forecast calls for a
turn toward the U.S. Coast in about 24 hours.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 08:34 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
...OPHELIA REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH... COULD BECOME A THREAT TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST...
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...30.0 N... 78.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 08:36 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Quote:
What is that is going to make her go North after the loop. I tend to agree with some of you that the projections are too far north. Do they think the ridge that is causing her to loop will become weaker?
Sorry if I'm asking dumb questions, but again, I'm a novice at this.
Some of the models weaken the ridge on its west side. The latest 12Z GFDL does not weaken this ridge and keeps the cyclone on a westward heading after the loop (or change in direction) until landfall along the central Georgia coast. However, the GFDL run has the storm making 31.5 N in latitude by tomorrow night and then stalls and turns her toward the coast. If she doesn't make it that far north - and to me it looks less and less likely as time goes by, then a more southward landfall along the FL east coast may be in the works. The speed and direction of this storm the next 24 hrs will be real critical to where she makes landfall. I also think a landfall by Monday night is not out of the question with this storm.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 08:38 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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It's a battle of two features: a sharp upper-level torugh sliding through the mid Atlantic into the southeast and the upper-low spiraling in from the southwest. As that upper-low passed south of Nate, it didn't stop the eastward motion of the storm but kept it moving slower than it otherwise would have. Here, it might help keep Ophelia from heading out to sea, as it might be want to do with just the trough passing by. Nevertheless, it's headed towards the northeast now and should continue to do so for another day or so before slowing, turning, and then heading back toward the west-northwest. There is a ridge there to the west of the trough that should build in, but it's not one of those ridges that will keep it headed west or slightly south of west. Thus, my landfall region centers on the coast between Brunswick and Savannah, with everyone from St. Augustine to New England needing to watch it. Ultimately, after it moves inland, it should continue to curve more towards the northwest and north with time, potentially heading into the NE late in the week. My forecast is slower than the NHC 5p advisory by about 12hr, mainly due to a slower turn toward the west, but nearly the same intensity at landfall. Landfall point is about the same, just not from the angle the NHC shows (I'd have it further south and curving up to meet that landfall point myself).
| Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 08:40 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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Quote:
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 09 2005
...OPHELIA REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH... COULD BECOME A THREAT TO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST...
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...30.0 N... 78.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 75 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 983 MB.
southeast coast meaning where?
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 08:42 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200516_5day.html
read the track at that link or read the disc i posted above the other post.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 08:49 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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looks like South Carolina is the target now, I'm thinking at this moment northern South Carolina or southern North Carolina, then up the coast, similar to Bertha in 1996, probably near the same intensity.
Also, has anyone else found it odd that the eastern Atlantic has been unusually quiet this season? Numerous strong waves dissipated, Emily stayed weak until in the Caribbean, Harvey failed to develop until SW of Bermuda, Irene was a depression most of the time east of 50W, TD10 dissipated, TD13 dissipated before regenerating further west as Lee, and Maria didnt form until around 50W.
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 08:51 PM |
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Re: Moving SE?
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today:
0300z 28.7N 79.3W
0900z 29.3N 79.1W
1200z 29.3N 79.1W
1500z 29.5N 78.9W
1709z 29.7N 78.6W ( 29 deg 41min N 78deg 36min W.... not possitive on this one.)
2100z 30.0N 78.2W
1.3 degree north 1.1 degrees east movement
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 08:59 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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To quote Kansas:
"Dust in the wind"
Luckily, so far there has been a lot of dirt in the waves coming off Africa keeping them dry.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Sep 09 2005 09:51 PM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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The models take this thing in to shore anywhere from southern Georgia all the way through the southern tip of the Chesapeake (though the later location, predicted by the GFS, brings it along the coast skimming all the way past Deleware).
This is one I'm keeping an eye on.
--RC
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Sep 10 2005 04:00 AM |
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Re: Hurricane Ophelia Sitting off East Central Florida Still Stationary
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http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200516_5day.html
if she follows that track, would and could she re-emerge out of the NC/MD coastline or around their and regain strenght n make a second ladfall anywhere from NYC-Nantucket or Cape Cod, MASS?