Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 09:06 PM |
Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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Wednesday- 1:30PM Update
Ophelia is moving slowly north northeast this morning near the Carolina coast, parts of the northern eyewall are along the coast and it has slowly strengthened this morning.
CFHC Recording ongoing of Wilmington, NC Radar
Also a wave in the Atlantic east of the Islands, called 95L is worth being tracked as it has about a 3/10 chance to become a depression over the next two days.
Tuesday - 6:30PM Update
Ophelia has again attained hurricane status, now with winds of 75mph, with some slight additional strengthening possible before it makes landfall late Wednesday or early Thursday. The storm has begun to move toward the north, with a gradual acceleration and turn to the northeast likely over the course of the next few days. Stay tuned for future updates.
Tuesday - 10AM Update
Ophelia remains a strong Tropical Storm although latest recon noted that an eyewall structure was attempting to form. Convective banding has also improved and so has the outflow to the northeast.
At 13/14Z, Ophelia was located near 32.2N 78.1W - movement generally now to the northwest at 4 or 5mph. Movement should become more northerly by this evening. Minimal hurricane intensity is still possible - especially with the improved overall structure that is evident this morning. Continue to monitor NHC for the latest changes to watches and warnings.
Original Post
Ophelia has had a rough day - and, at least for the moment, thats good news for the folks along the Carolina coasts. At 13/00Z, now Tropical Storm Ophelia was located near 31.9N 77.6W, or just over 250 miles south southwest of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Movement is to the west northwest at 5mph - and with a strong ridge still in place to the north and a weakening ridge to the west, I'd expect that motion to continue. Clark's article (see below) covers the expected track, intensity and landfall threat areas.
Dry air entrainment (currently still ongoing primarily from the north) and sea surface cooling (upwelling) have weakened Ophelia and dissipated the entire central core of the storm. She is now a strong Tropical Storm with a low-level circulation center surrounded by strong outer convective bands and she is beginning to look somewhat like a subtropical system rather than a tropical one. The only tropical source of energy is the Gulfstream and Ophelia is cooling off a small area of that.
With such a large disruption in structure, I'd be surprised if she can make it back to hurricane status - although I'm beginning to believe that with this storm, surprises are the norm rather than the exception. While eventual landfall seems likely in the NC/SC border area, the long-term track is still a bit up in the dry air. Some of the models suggest that the approaching trough off to the northwest will not pick up Ophelia and carry her off to the northeast. It is still a possibility that the trough will only nudge the storm a little northeast and then east back over open water again - in other words we could be tracking this storm for quite some time (which sounds a bit redundant).
Folks along the North Carolina and South Carolina coasts are beginning to feel the effects of Ophelia's outer rainbands and should continue to monitor her movement and intensity closely.
ED
Clark's comments from the previous thread:
Ophelia reminds me a bit of Isidore from 2002, albeit for different reasons. Weakened storm that is still organized enough to be near hurricane intensity, but disrupted enough by external influences (here, upwelling and potentially dry air; heard a few debates on the topic today) to result in a storm with a relatively flat wind profile that, while moving into a more favorable environment, is not conducive to any quick development (if any at all). Expect the storm to come in near this intensity. I expect this storm to come in between Myrtle Beach and Wilmington sometime late tomorrow or on Wednesday -- a little further south of the NHC position is my guess -- before turning toward the north at a slow clip. Potential threat to the DelMarVa, Long Island, and New England is there, but other than high surf, gusty winds, and a couple-few inches of rain, it's nothing to write home about.
Wave out in the Cent. Atlantic bears some watching, but the upper-low in the same area needs to fill or move out before anything is to get going out there. There has been some model support for something and those waters are largely untouched this year -- in fact, the area east of 40W contains what are probably the least-disturbed waters this season outside of the SW Caribbean, though this is likely to form further west of there -- so it bears watching. Cape Verde season, which never really got going in earnest, is largely done with troughing taking over the tropical east Atlantic.
Waters remain anamolously cool in the Gulf and off of the SE coastline due to Katrina and Ophelia, respectively. It's still enough to get something going in the Gulf, but the threat for another big storm has been greatly diminished at least for the time being -- if not the entire season, as now is the time when air temperatures begin to fall and start to take the SSTs with them. Only 6 more storms gets us to the end of the list; with another one or two likely this month and the potential for a fairly active October, it's a fair bet that we make a run at the end of the list.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Report conditions from Ophelia in your area In this thread
Event Related Links
Radars, Satellite
Charleston, SC Long Range Radar
Wilmington, NC Long Range Radar
Morehead City, NC Long Range Radar
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations)
Charleston, SC
Emergency Management:
Georgia Emergency Management
South Carolina Emergency Management
Ophelia
Animated model plots of Ophelia
Google Map Plot of Ophelia
Floater IR Satellite of Ophelia
Floater WV Satellite of Ophelia
Floater Visible Satellite of Ophelia
Wave 95L
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 09:16 PM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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Just a quick note on the latest recon: Ophelia hasn't made the expected NW movement predicted by the NHC yet, and is now west of it's predicted position and track:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 09:31 PM |
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas *DELETED*
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Post deleted by HanKFranK
| prideman |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 09:41 PM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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Voluntary evacs are starting in Myrtle Beach from East of Hwy 17. Just had a pretty good rain band move through. Still waiting to see a more northward turn so it will miss us, but the more west it moves, the more we feel.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 09:47 PM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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About 3 days ago I had the feeling that Ophellia will make land fall in Mid SC coast. Tonight still feel that more so . unless can make one hard right turn soon.
being a TS would be better for her to make a faster land fall to the west.
Dave
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 09:58 PM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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Ed,
Just looked again at Ophelia this thing looks like it just lost most of it's Tropical Low and now seems to be a sub low. maybe wrong here.
Dave
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 10:04 PM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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I took a close look at the low level center (not easy to do with IR imagery) and it looks like a slow movement to the west northwest so I've corrected the main article. Its also possible that the LLC is just wobbling around the former inner core area - but thanks for pointing out the recon data. Also updated the main article to include all of the SC coast in the area influenced by the outer bands.
Cheers,
ED
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 10:12 PM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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Last recon fix is now showing a southerly movement. We'll see if this pans out over the long term, or if it's just a wobble. I'm wondering if NOGAPS was onto something earlier? Now NOGAPS is inline with the other models though.
It needs to make that northward turn soon or Ophelia will get quite near the coast, and likely have the core pass over more than just the barrier islands.
--RC
| CarolinaGurl |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 10:56 PM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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Here in the Wilmington/Kure Beach area we have had the beginnings of the rain bands coming in. The webcam at Kure Beach is saying the max winds today was 50 mph, they are steady at about 20 mph. We have had .15 inches of rain in the last hour. Our county has called for mandatory evac of the islands and low lying areas. The only mandatory evac is for UNCW students. We actually have some students from Tulane that I am sure are thinking they made a bad choice in coming here.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Mon Sep 12 2005 10:58 PM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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Been away from the computer for awhile. I Just saw a burst of convection to the east of the broard center. I also saw on the recon data that the flight level winds were 72kts which would transfer to the surface a 74.52mph storm in the se quad. Does anyone see this thing now strenghtening because it has to be getting very close to the Gulf Stream? J.C.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 12:34 AM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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The standard flight-level reduction rules don't apply with this storm, based upon surface wind measurements from a multitude of sources. This is not uncommon for storms in the mid-latitudes, storms that have been disrupted by land, storms feeling the effects of upwelling and/or dry air, or storms in their organization phases. Flight level winds at 700mb of 72kt which may normally correspond to that 74.52mph figure (90% reduction) are likely lower, probably necessitating an 80-85% reduction factor based upon the aformentioned surface measurements. Simply put, when you have actual surface measurements, you almost always want to go with those over estimated fields from upper-levels, as no two storms are alike.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 02:08 AM |
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ophelia creeping along
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there's a good bit more deep convection associated with ophelia this evening than there was earlier today, but the storm still has no real inner core. if it gets one back, it will be one of those ragged eye annular type storms. clark referred to isidore in 2002 as a reference system... not bad in this case. the storm is gaining vertical depth even if it doesn't do any reintensfication, so the westward jaunt will probably come to an end. today it has gone erratically wnw, now roughly due south of wilmington. i'm not really sure where it's going to come in, because it should be turning as it does, and the coastline will be oblique to it. add to that the fact that the storm center is very broad, and it could easily make the same sort of landfall that alex did in august 2004... partial. it could edge in very close to extreme eastern south carolina, around north myrtle beach. more likely it'll move across brunswick county north carolina, between calabash and cape fear. may or may not be a hurricane... but regardless there are going to be frequent squalls with gale force winds over a large area from georgetown northward all along the north carolina coast.. should be mostly a nuisance storm, but a long-lasting nuisance. the earlier progs capturing ophelia late in the week have pretty much evaported, so unless the storm unexpectedly decouples, it'll more than likely whip out to sea. might move close enough to cape cod/nantucket to mess the weather up there, but i doubt it will landfall in new england as some models have sporadically shown.
several of the globals are showing a disturbance in the western caribbean and another from the wave near the africa/islands midway point around the weekend timeframe. that mjo wave does appear to be progressing (the effect of the enhancing anomalies looks to already be present in the eastpac), so the atlantic ought to perk up some next week going into the end of the month. it looks to be coming on faster than i'd thought...
HF 0609z13september
| zacros |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 06:38 AM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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From looking at the long-range radar, Ophelia finally seems to be making the northward turn. I know that will certianly make my day a lot easier here in Charleston. Looks like about half the sand on the newly renourished portion of Folly Beach is gone. Lots of northeast wind and big waves are chewing it up.
| bigpapi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 07:52 AM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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Actually, looking at the Long Range Radar it appears a smaller center has materialized. Looks like the core could be returning. Looking at that it appears to be a slow northwest movement. Conditions here in Myrtle Beach are going downhill right now. Gusty winds and showers.
| WisconsinWill |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 07:56 AM |
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Re: ophelia creeping along
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Quote:
there's a good bit more deep convection associated with ophelia this evening than there was earlier today, but the storm still has no real inner core. if it gets one back, it will be one of those ragged eye annular type storms.
That's what I thought, too, but the latest NEXRAD imagery from Wilmington shows gradually improving organization and what I'll call an "eyewall-type" feature in progress. A meso-eddy had been rotating cyclonically around the inner edge of the much larger radius of maximum wind, and that little eddy now seems to settled into the center and is picking up some decent convection (~30 dBZ). In any case, it looks like Ophelia is poised to beome a hurricane for the 4th time. Recon should let us know within the hour.
Will
| zacros |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 08:08 AM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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I see that as well. Looking at the long range radar ealier this morning, the inner core was just starting to build. It is definately starting to organize a little better, at least on radar. Also, the movement does appear to be more northwest, although the official 8 AM update says the storm is moving nnw. Maybe the inner core is still playing catch-up with the rest of the system.
| bigpapi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 08:19 AM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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Very small pressure drop. Let's see if when the core gets reestablished if pressures fall a little faster. Water temperatures are warmer now for this storm then a few days ago.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 08:35 AM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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According to recon, she's moved due north over the past 6 hours (recon's about an hour old...last one was 6 hours earlier). Looking at IR and WV, she looks to be nearly stationary again.
This is one hard to track storm!
She's also weakened, with max interpolated surface wind now at 35kt - she's barely holding onto TS strength. Flight level winds are only 53kts.
Recon fixes: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
Vortex message: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/URNT12.KNHC (copied below)
----
236
URNT12 KNHC 131149
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/11:26:30Z
B. 32 deg 12 min N
077 deg 50 min W
C. 700 mb 2996 m
D. 35 kt
E. 304 deg 072 nm
F. 047 deg 053 kt
G. 297 deg 043 nm
H. 989 mb
I. 10 C/ 3048 m
J. 11 C/ 3047 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF300 2116A OPHELIA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 53 KT NW QUAD 11:13:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 12 C, 273 / 16NM
| bigpapi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 09:09 AM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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Looks like the new core just wrapped itself around. Let's see if the convection wraps around that. Just read Bastardi's update. He still believes this gets up to a 90kt storm!! I find that hard to fathom. However I give him credit because he sticks to his guns.
| WisconsinWill |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 09:28 AM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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Quote:
Looks like the new core just wrapped itself around. Let's see if the convection wraps around that. Just read Bastardi's update. He still believes this gets up to a 90kt storm!! I find that hard to fathom. However I give him credit because he sticks to his guns.
That's certainly a bold forecast, but I find it a bit more believable now than I would have 12 hours ago -- Ophelia continues to get better organized, with WIlmington NEXRAD showing a patch of 64+kt knot winds northeast of the center, and an expanding area of 50-60kt winds west of the center -- about 10 kt stronger than when recon penetrated from the west a little while ago. I have a hunch they'll find something a bit stronger next time around. The radius of maximum wind is still quite large, but if the current trend continues, it will probably contract as we go through the day. With at least another 24 hours over water and SSTs generally 80 to 82 along the path, some intensification above the 65kt currently forecast by NHC is certainly possible.
Will
| B.C.Francis |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 10:36 AM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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I`ve been watching the radar loops out of Wilmington for the last 3 hours and I might be wrong but I don`t see any of the north component in Ophelias track. In fact I see a west north west drift and it looks like she may be heading more towards the Georgetown area. I`m in north Charleston at the moment and I`m not an expert but I know what my eyes are seeing. Large rain band off shore will affect the coast later on today I believe . It seems to be getting a tad more organized around the center. ........Correct me if I`m wrong anybody........Weatherchef
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 11:40 AM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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I think the movement of the system is ill-defined at the moment. The circulation associated with the "eye" that is trying to form is not anchored as the center of larger circulation, but appears to cyclonically rotating within the larger center at a slow rate of speed (currently appears to be drifting east on radar). It's tough to tell which way the overall larger circulation is moving, since the center is so broad and it is moving so slowly. The system as a whole does appear to be slowly progressing (or expanding) northward toward the coast.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 12:01 PM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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Yeah...where is Ophelia? Recon has her looping again. 4 hours ago she headed north, 2 hours ago it was west. Now it's south.
On Visible and IR she isn't appearing to loop, though the tracks are hard to find.
Ophelia has a mind of her own...and will go where she wants to.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 01:08 PM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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the fix they're giving is that weak, old inner core that's ricocheting around inside the large envelope of the storm. it's gonna keep doing that as long as the storm moves slowly and doesn't mix the dry air out of the center. some of that appears to be taking place, but it doesn't happen quickly. as for the earlier quote on bastardi's intensity... i don't see why it can't get to cat 2, later on. if anybody remembers gustav in 2002, it took a similar glancing path against the outer banks, and deepened baroclinically as it moved out into the north atlantic quite a bit. ophelia could do something similar. near the outer banks i doubt it will surpass category 1, however.
HF 1708z13september
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 01:15 PM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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Considering the cooled waters (both due to storm-induced and physically-induced upwelling), poor inner-core organization of the storm, and proximity to land -- among other factors -- I think a call of a 90kt storm at landfall is, quite frankly, unrealistic. It may organize a bit more than forecast, but that's by 5kt and not 30kt. We've seen storms with impressive satellite signatures actually be quite a bit weaker than they are in reality this season, including this one throughout its lifecycle -- something Bastardi hasn't picked up on all season long despite recon & surface obs to the contrary -- and given what the current state of the storm is, it's going to take a lot for the surface representation of the storm to match any improved satellite appearance. It doesn't have the time, the environment, or the state of organization to do so. That is in no way to say that people in SC/NC shouldn't be prepared for a hurricane -- we've been harping on that possibility for days now -- but to think that something intensifying to major hurricane status will affect the region is just beyond reason right now.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 03:14 PM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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Ophelia seems to be making a go at intensification. Convection continues to flare-up closer to the center, especially near that sub-vortex that is floating around in there. Radar wind speeds have been increasing in the western semi-circle of the system, possibly being enhanced by that smaller vortex. Outflow is excellent, but unless it starts jogging more to the NNE, it will move off of the Gulf Stream before too long. It also needs to develop a stable inner core for any significant intensification.
| bigpapi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 03:21 PM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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Tropical Storm force winds just began here in Myrtle Beach. Some good gusts. Looks like the rain is beginning. This should be the beginning of what may be a long 24 hours. Also looking at radar it appears to be still moving NNW. Also latest DVORAK have Ophy at a 4.0/4.0. Should be a Hurricane again.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 03:29 PM |
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Atlantic activity
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Looks like they did a test SHIPS run of a system at 9.5 N, 38.5 W:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGHUR
Perhaps they are getting a little more interested in the disturbed area of weather out there. The output suggests that conditions would be favorable for strengthening, but keep in mind it is still just a wave at this point and may never be more than that.
| Chris Bryant |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 03:33 PM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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FWIW- the NWS "experimental" radar page has doppler wind velocity images- http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/ltx.shtml
. It does look like the entire North Corolina coast is going to get a whole *bunch* of rain at the least- and more wind than I like
.
| rexsc |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 03:40 PM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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Weather is beginning to deteriorate in Charleston. The winds are picking up with bands beginning to make an impact. It looks as if Myrtle Beach will get take a bit more of a beating than first anticipated. Radar looks as if it still has somewhat of a western component/wobble left in it before heading due north.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 03:45 PM |
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Invest 95L
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We have invest 95L out in the Atlantic:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...es&DISPLAY=
Here are the model tracks:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_95.gif
========
Rexcs: Here's the 48 hour rainfall estimate from GFS (rainfall ending 8am Thursday): http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_p48_048l.gif
========
BTW - take a look at the Katrina sat loops at NRL. I made a thread about it over at the Hurricane History section
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 04:12 PM |
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Re: Invest 95L
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Yep. Time to start looking in the rear view mirror once again. 12Z 850 vort CMC, GFS, UKMET, and to a lesser degree the NOGAPS runs are showing the possibility of something spinning up and approaching the Lesser Antilles in the next 6 days. Believe the models have been picking up on this the last couple of runs. Way too early to tell, however, what'll play out.
| bigpapi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 04:17 PM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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It's been raining nonstop now for a while. Gusts come and go. Probably nothing over 40mph yet. I have a question for the mets. Now that Ophelia is getting her core back. We've seen what looked like an enormous eye for the past few days. Cat 1borderling TS storms don't usually have eye features. Will this fill in completely over the next few hours making the "appearance " of a weaker storm even though it's slightly intensifying?
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 05:37 PM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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5pm advisory kept Ophelia as a tropical storm, but they just did an update to upgrade it back to a hurricane with winds of 75 mph, based apparently on new recon data.
No mention of 95L in the 5:30 pm outlook, so they aren't expecting anything to happen soon, apparently.
| amonty |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 05:58 PM |
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Re: Invest 95L
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I Was just watching TWC. At the end of the tropical update "Dr. Lyons" waved is hand across the Atlantic and Caribbean and said " Look at this, a beautiful Atlantic and Carribean ocean with no worries there are no other tropical systems out here it's beautiful weather for you vacationers."
Keep in mind he said this as he waived his hand right over Invest 95L. You can make what you want of that!!!
| bn765 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 07:57 PM |
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Re: Invest 95L
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Bad news....Ophelia has stalled......
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 08:23 PM |
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Re: Invest 95L
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Quote:
Bad news....Ophelia has stalled......
Yep, I'm seeing that on radar. Last hour has no movement. IR still shows a slight northward movement and the next recon fix is probably about an hour off..could be more or less though.
It could be just a wobble, or an artifact of the reorganization she's undergoing. Only time will tell with this storm.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 08:27 PM |
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Re: Invest 95L
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So what is the deal with 95L? Is this anything to be concerned about in the future?
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 08:34 PM |
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Re: Invest 95L
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Quote:
So what is the deal with 95L? Is this anything to be concerned about in the future?
Several models show possible development, and the daily TWD's from NHC have been steadily making this system seem more and more organized over the past few days. It is still a ways from being a TD, but I wouldn't be surprised if it turns into one.
--RC
| bigpapi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 08:48 PM |
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Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
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Dvorak up to 4.5/4.5. So that supports 979 pressure and 89mph. Wonder what the next advisory will say.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 09:37 PM |
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ophelia, 95L, and the guy in the middle
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basin should start going active again soon, maybe later this week, maybe the weekend.
ophelia may technically miss the north carolina coast. the models as a group have shifted very close to cape lookout/carteret and hyde counties. with the broad wind field and large eye structure, the hurricane doesn't have to score a direct hit to do its damage... albeit that shouldn't be too dramatic. with how dry the storm looked yesterday nobody was saying/thinking much about flooding, but now that the convection has returned the immediate coastal counties from georgetown to kill devil hills stand to take quite a drenching. those are strong rainbands and they're training like crazy. ophelia should keep pummeling the coast with that sort of jazz all tomorrow and into thursday.
i'm surprised invest 95L was instated.. that's not a terribly impressive wave. usually when a wave has a defined low on it or a strong, sustained convective burst with some sort of cyclonic turning, an invest will be instated.. 95L hasn't reached that point. nevertheless the whole slough of models sees it... a couple keep it as a wave, some take days for a low to develop on it, some develop it over the next day or two. basic movement is, as noted, toward the lesser antilles. usual principle of later development = lower latitude should apply. there's a weakness that should drag on it as it approaches the islands, probably draw it up far enough for a later recurvature, but it could well approach the islands in spite of that. the easterlies are nowhere near as strong as they could be, and there's actually some westerly shear that far down in the basin, which may affect it in coming days... it's not going to move very fast.. maybe approaching the islands in 5-7 days. most of the ensembles are showing a weakness in the ridge north of hispaniola around then, that's why i'd inevitably call for a recurvature of whatever may develop.
different story with the monkey in the middle. the trough in the central atlantic right now is lifting out some, and the energy it's leaving behind is shown by numerous models to induce a surface trough in ophelia's wake. almost all of the globals see it.. and it's precursor is apparent ne of puerto rico right now on satellite. mid level ridging should push it toward the bahamas/cuba over the next few days... it may interact with ophelia's wake trough, may stall, may continue westward... not a great deal of agreement from the models on this. based on the placement, oncoming mjo wave, and pulsing positive soi index... i'd say it will need to be watched around the weekend.
the eastpac is going active.. numerous models are showing systems forming south of mexico over the next few days.. there is also an active depression and a good looking invest at the present time. the atlantic usually responds a few days after the pacific, so by next week we'll probably have another system or two running around our basin. the long range prog is for the ridging in the east to slowly flatten, and for a more zonal profile to develop across the basin. the mean ridge position is still shown around 85-90w... so anything pushed under it will either go into mexico or ride up towards texas or western louisiana if it can catch a passing trough. the weakness off the east coast should be filling and perhaps breaking down as the ridge in the east flattens. it'll still probably be enough to fling anything in the atlantic out, unless it comes in low through the caribbean.
HF 0137z14september
| prideman |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 09:45 PM |
|
Re: Invest 95L
|
Quote:
So what is the deal with 95L? Is this anything to be concerned about in the future?
It looks like from radar that it is even nudging a bit west at the moment. Maybe just a wobble or it may be just spreading out more. Don't need a west movement though. It is to close as is.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 09:46 PM |
|
|
Re: ophelia, 95L, and the guy in the middle
|
think its possible to have an even more active season in late sept. HF or is that like imposible or unusual or what, i mean if all went well, we pretty much are sone with peak season?
in agree, 95L doesnt look good, bad for it, good for us..but i mean i dont see howthe seasoin could gt any woerse, after Ophelia..do you see another system affecting us or was this the full swing?
i know what katrina did, so i am sympathetic, especially me..but im jw
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 09:50 PM |
|
|
Re: ophelia, 95L, and the guy in the middle
|
At this point we need to remember that the peak of season was only yesterday, I believe, correct me if I am wrong
| Convergence |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 13 2005 10:35 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
|
Recon reporting 982 mb...
| NONAME |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 01:19 AM |
|
|
Re: 95L INVEST
|
I think that 95L could spin up pretty quickly even with the shear Mainly cause a anticyclone is over it (NHC). Here are reasons why.
Accuweather
"A tropical wave along 37 west south of 17 north is showing some signs of organization. During late Tuesday and Tuesday evening satellite images were starting to show an organized lower level circulation in the cloud motion. Some computer models are suggesting this wave might slowly organize into a tropical system in a couple of days. So, this wave will be closely monitored for possible development."
NHC
"EAST ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 17N MOVING W 10
KT. THE WAVE IS STILL LOW LATITUDE BUT HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE A
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS IT BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN
THE TRADE WIND FLOW REGIME. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 36W-40W."
" AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED DEEP IN THE TROPICS
NEAR 13N35W AND IS PROVIDING A FAIRLY DECENT ENVIRONMENT ABOVE
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 36W."
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 02:51 AM |
|
|
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
|
So, Recon is now reporting 980 mb with a 50 Mile wide eye. That's not something you see every day. *whistles* Fairly ragged they say, which you can see on the radar presentation, but. I admit that the 50 mile wide eye sorta raises an eyebrow for me. It's trying to get it's act together, just so long as the eyewall doesn't contract, if it does, there could be problems with unexpected intensification...
-Mark
(Falcons 1-0)
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 07:24 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
|
She could strengthen:
303
URNT12 KNHC 140904
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/08:50:00Z
B. 33 deg 07 min N
077 deg 49 min W
C. 700 mb 2930 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 114 deg 064 kt
G. 025 deg 047 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 9 C/ 3043 m
J. 14 C/ 3049 m
K. 8 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C50
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF300 2416A OPHELIA OB 15
MAX FL WIND 77 KT SE QUAD 07:23:10 Z
EYE STILL RAGGED
STADIUM EFFECT VISIBLE IN MOONLIGHT SE QUADRANT
| Cycloneye11 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 07:43 AM |
|
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
|
URNT12 KNHC 141134
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 14/11:19:10Z
B. 33 deg 21 min N
077 deg 48 min W
C. 700 mb 2927 m
D. 45 kt
E. 136 deg 104 nm
F. 226 deg 080 kt
G. 129 deg 032 nm
H. 980 mb
I. 9 C/ 3052 m
J. 14 C/ 3048 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E06/60/50
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 2416A OPHELIA OB 20
MAX FL WIND 80 KT SE QUAD 11:09:40 Z
EYE STILL SOMEWHAT RAGGED, BUT RADAR PRESENTATION IMPROVED FROM EARLIER FIXES. CENTER IS CLOUD FILLED BELOW FLIGHT LEVEL.
| zacros |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 08:05 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
|
Looks like Ophelia is starting to show some eastward movement and seems to be picking up speed. The 8 AM advisory confirms this. It will be interesting to see if she simply grazes the coast or if the eye actually crosses land at some point. Looks like the NHC forcast track is right on. The floater IR on opening page shows that pretty clearly.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 08:19 AM |
|
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
|
What's with the left hook into NJ on these models (you have to scroll down a ways)..anything to be taken seriously:
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 08:29 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
|
It isn't a hook into NJ. If you look at the UKMET model run (http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/) you will see exactly what happened. The computer app that takes the UKMET output and finds the low pressure center didn't find the same low for every datapoint.
UKMET track:
Ophelia goes across easter NC and back out to sea, and dissipates quickly. Meanwhile, a 2nd low forms over VA and tracks north across northern NY. The UKMET track on your link skips from Ophelia to this new low that is forming, thus making it appear that Ophelia moves inland.
Edit: It's easier to see on this model animation: http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/model?MO...one&C1=pmsl
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 08:54 AM |
|
|
New Invest
|
Having just looked at the model runs - I need some "Professional" input on the 4 to 5 day projections from FSU and UKM - - they seem to agree that the new invest spins up to Storm status by this weekend. What can keep this from happening, and why don't the other models pick it up? (Probably stupid question but wopuld really like to know)
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 09:07 AM |
|
Re: Ophelia Crawls Toward the Carolinas
|
Could Ophelia affect Chincoteague Island in any way? Also, what is the average number of storms for September?
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 09:09 AM |
|
|
Re: New Invest
|
In my opinion the FSU tends to overintensify storms and the UKMET is taking it out to sea so far, so no worries, yet.... will have to wait for more model runs with more model consistentcy.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 09:14 AM |
|
Re: New Invest
|
Looks like the earlier jog to the east has now stopped and part of the eye/center circulation is making landfall:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 10:52 AM |
|
Re: New Invest
|
New watches and warnings. Kind of curious, as track has not changed. Maybe due to new areas now being in a closer timeframe than before:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200516.public.html
| TheSkyGuy-in-OZ |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 11:22 AM |
|
|
Re: New Invest
|
I think your right ED, it looks like it will make landfall and she's a bit stronger
They may be expecting a NE turn, but the radar loops still seem to show NNW
I guess it will happen soon (hopefully for people in the path)
I would think land should weeken her, but she's a tough one!
Any MET's with updated info?
| Todd |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 11:30 AM |
|
Re: New Invest
|
Ed.. You might find this interesting..
http://home.earthlink.net/~ctccbc/main.html
| TheSkyGuy-in-OZ |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 11:46 AM |
|
|
|
Re: New Invest
|
Latest Rain radar has the NW tip of the girl's big eye over land and the Sat pic's seem to confirm this too.
anyone have reports from that area? and is it prone to flooding?
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 12:03 PM |
|
Re: New Invest
|
Winds have increased to near 85 mph. Could they go any higher? Could this storm affect Chincoteague, Virginia?
Worried about those ponies.
| TheSkyGuy-in-OZ |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 12:12 PM |
|
|
|
Re: New Invest
|
The only thing you can count on is that anything can happen.
This storm is doing what she wants, not what is expected of her
so if your near by, be ready for anything (Get those Ponies to safety)
| sailor |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 12:35 PM |
|
Re: New Invest
|
JB still says this will track more westward and pass between block island and cape cod. NHC discussion state that some models are going west as well after the NC passage. Any thoughts?
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 01:11 PM |
|
Ophelia
|
12Z GFS appears to be further left compared to its previous runs, though it still takes the storm east of Cape Cod in about 72 hours. It may take awhile for the storm to weaken significantly, assuming interaction with land doesn't do it in as it passes along the NC coast. Outflow will temporarily be enhanced by the approaching trough and then favorable baroclinic influences should keep it as an intense cyclone as it gradually becomes extratropical.
Even if it still has minimal hurricane or strong tropical storm intensity as it approaches New England, though, the strongest winds will likely be displaced to the eastern half of the system by then, so it will have to take a track a fair amount west of what is currently expected for anyone up there to get some significant impacts from this system.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 01:20 PM |
|
Re: New Invest
|
95L got a mention in the Tropical Weather Outlook for the first time:
A LARGE WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 01:31 PM |
|
|
Re: Ophelia
|
well just talked to my family up in NC... grandma lives in Brunswick County... Just outside of Southport (lowest part of NC that Sticks out on map).....power is out, been out since 7:00 this morning and local news tv is saying most of ILM is without power...(they have a Generator).... The also heard and seen reports of MAJOR beach erosion on Caroline - up to Atlantic Beach.... Sayed this biggest problem is the RAIN... they have rain guage... 8 inches of rain in 5hrs today.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 01:43 PM |
|
|
Re: Ophelia
|
Level 3 radar images updated every 5 mins with warnings. Hopefully next time Mike can set up a mirror for me
http://hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php?t=3744
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 01:49 PM |
|
|
Re: Ophelia
|
winds 85mph earlier but at 80mph on 2pm adv on wunderground.com
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 01:55 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
The 2pm advisory has been corrected to reflect the 85 mph maximum winds.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 01:58 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
check the radar out and see the more NE movement now with the storm.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kltx.shtml
As i stated before this storm may not ever hit the coast and now with this new loop it looks more like it won't.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 02:09 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
Don't agree...to me, Morehead City looks dead in the middle of its current movment. It's currently moving NNE and would need almost a due east motion to miss it.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 02:13 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
Opehlia has basically been one of the easier storms to forecast. Still going to brush the carolinas with TS force winds and hurricane force over the outerbanks then move NNE-NE near eastern Long Island and brush Cape Cod. There is a chance it might go further out to sea but this has been my forecast for the past 5 days now. The system has been moving slightly slower then I forecasted though last week.
95L should become a TD in a day or 2 movement will be difficult after 3 days as many models show a trough over the eastern carribean N towards bermuda. Also possible 96L in a day or 2 N of puerto rico should swing Sw then W and be near hispaniola by the weekend.
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 02:19 PM |
|
|
Re: Ophelia
|
Looks to me like shes already hit land and is off the NHC forcast track alittle
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| La Nimo |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 02:28 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
Didn't you have Katrina making land fall between Cross City and Cedar Key.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 02:30 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
The northern eyewall has hit land, but the center of the storm has not. The center appears to be headed in the general direction of Cape Lookout.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 02:41 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
The storm to me is tracking due North now. Away from forecasted track. Does anyone else see this?
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 02:42 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
I don't think a brush, but a battering!!
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 02:48 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
It does like north at this point, but too early to see if it's a trend. There have been some other fluctuations during the day.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 02:57 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
Ed,
Where are you located in Va? I expect the Tidewater area to get some of the fury of this storm.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 03:01 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
Williamsburg...so don't expect any big impact here. Tidewater could be another story.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 03:02 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
To my eyes, the VIS, IR, and radar loops all indicate an eastward component to the motion. It certainly isn't moving very quickly, though.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 03:12 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
You're right, especially for the last frames. Note how the flow on the northwest part of the storm is being affected by the incoming ridge/front.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 03:18 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
yeah I was off on Katrina but that was also 5 days out forecast.Dont forget NHC changes theirs every 6hrs. Anyways I put down Katrina as a miss on forecasting, 2nd this season. I did get her exact path from 36 hours out though.
| DebbiePSL |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 03:24 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
I happen to remember last season scott and you did a great job. I really enjoy reading your thoughts on these storms. Nobody gets them all right. Jeanne and Frances were had to track last year but if I recall you did very well with those two
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 04:27 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
Quote:
yeah I was off on Katrina but that was also 5 days out forecast.Dont forget NHC changes theirs every 6hrs. Anyways I put down Katrina as a miss on forecasting, 2nd this season. I did get her exact path from 36 hours out though.
Scott go back 5 days maybe 6 but i think 5 days ago you had it going to FL GA border its on the other posts.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 05:42 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ophelia
|
NHC now mentions 95L in their TWO: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/142057.shtml
We've got to watch him (why him? Next storm is Phillipe.)
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 06:57 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
The IR loop of Ophelia is interesting... it looks like some of the higher cloud tops from the outer eyewall are being wrapped into the eye, perhaps by some sort of smaller circulation. There isn't much precip under these tops based on the radar.
Looks like the eastern half of Ophelia is starting to become the dominant side, a trend which will likely continue as it starts to feel more effects from the approaching trough.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 07:15 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
Quite frankly, I can't see anything more than a brush -- if that -- to Long Island and Cape Cod. Landfall is almost entirely out of the question. The approaching trough is nearly at the longitude of the storm and should start accelerating Ophelia at a pretty good clip any time now. There is a pretty strong jet behind the trough, keeping it and the rest of the flow moving along at a good clip, with the end result being a storm that heads out to sea. The current NHC track looks good from my point of view, keeping the storm well away from land. People further north should watch it, sure, but I do not foresee any direct -- and minimal indirect -- impacts from Ophelia that far toward the north.
| syfr |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 07:31 PM |
|
|
Re: Ophelia
|
Vy little storm effect here just south and east of Raleigh NC. Intermittent light rain bands, winds from the NNW gusting to 25. Much less rain than what we were forecast for.
John
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 08:35 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
Any chance she'll afffect Chincoteague Island? Also, what is your opinion on 95L?
It'll brush by there with the western side of the storm. No idea on 95L...haven't had the chance to follow it. -Clark
| Daytonaman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 08:50 PM |
|
|
Re: Ophelia
|
And Ralph's forecast from Sept. 9...
"For a few days now and a few pages back i posted that my thinking was the GA FL border,Now what i use to base it on is the same thing i used when i said that Kat would hit the LA miss area when it left the Fl coast which is a blend of the GDFL runs and blend them with old runs.
When Katrina went off the florida coast the gdfl had the right track a day before then changed as it went along.
The other day the gdfl had it going to the GA Fl border and my thinking is it has it now moving faster then what it is and will be doing.
So just like with Katrina ill go with what worked last storm and for 2 days now been saying this will hit the GA FL border as a cat 1-2 storm and error range up to the GA SC border and as low as Daytona beach."
Edited by ralphfl (Fri Sep 09 2005 02:00 PM) OR
Ralph's Forecast
I lurk on here often, trying to be a student. So I post very rarely. I know that no one gets their forecasts all right or all wrong not even the NHC, but it makes for interesting discussion and debate. I have to vent this in that it gets very old very fast when people make habits of saying things about others posts but give no reasoning why the post they are commenting on is wrong in their opinion.
PS...Mod's feel free to send to the graveyard, but this is a great site and sometimes one needs to vent....Thanks.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 09:16 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ophelia
|
I hate to say it, but over the last hour on radar I fail to see any movement of Ophelia. It looks like the coastal areas of NC are going to be really wet.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 09:29 PM |
|
|
|
a little more ophelia
|
ophelia has probably done it's worst to the mainland. the counties along long bay and onslow bay from northeast sc up across southeast nc have taken long hours of strong gusty winds and intense rainfall.. parts of brunswick county north carolina have doppler estimates ranging near 15". the waccamaw river is going to be up for a while, needless to say. right now the center is approaching what will be considered a landfall.. if only partial... at cape lookout. the large eye should trace the barrier islands to near hatteras, with the core of strong winds running from carteret county to dare county. ophelia has been fairly stable today at around 980mb, with the winds roughly matching the minimum pressure. based on the outflow and convective pattern i wouldn't expect it to intensify any more. terminal track from here should be close enough to nantucket/cape cod to merit issuance of t.s. warnings for a late friday passage.. and the storm will likely move even closer to nova scotia on saturday as it becomes extratropical. there is a chance it will baroclinically interact with the shortwave to the west and move more to the north, affecting eastern new england more severely. the nhc doesn't think this is likely and neither do i... as the storm has tended east consistently and the shortwave doesn't appear to be digging or amplifying much. if this occurs the track will be slower in the short term and ophelia will pass the areas to the north perhaps 12hr later than otherwise.
rest of the basin:
95L has an ever growing envelope of convection. the low pressure at the surface is elongated east-west, but slowly consolidating. if it takes longer then the ultimate track will be further west, and quite possibly over the caribbean islands. most of the models are favoring a quicker development and more northward track, and based on the appearance of the system i'd agree with them. this will probably be a classified system by the weekend. most of the globals and ensemble runs are showing a persistent weakness in the subtropical ridge near 65-70w, so this system will likely end up closer to bermuda than the u.s.
what has me far more concerned is the feature north of puerto rico. the consensus of globals track this feature westward through the straits of florida around early next week.. some showing a closed surface low at that point. the hpc official even tracks it as such. ensemble forecasts show the zonal steering ridge centered over the gulf states weakening around the time this feature would be nearing the western gulf... if it hasn't developed and done something strange in the meanwhile, it will be there late next week. very strong upper ridging is shown in the gulf at this time... looks like a very favorable scenario for development if it pans out. i've been mumbling about texas maybe seeing something later this month for about a week now... the candidate has shown up. western gulf is still very warm... it's something to keep an eye out for.
globals are showing other activity as the month progresses. the mjo pulse has sort of split, going out of phase again. we'll probably see a more strung out, less concentrated pulse.. but if you look at the tropical eastpac right now you get the picture that it's vigorous enough. also been watching the sst anomalies in the tropical pacific. there's a more clear cold signal than we've had all year... la nina may be coming on this winter, after a 3 1/2 year hiatus.
that'll do her.
HF 0129z15september
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 09:39 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ophelia
|
Beaumont,
Last 850 vort model runs on FSU site:
18Z GFDL and GFS and 12Z UKMET have 95L NE of Lesser Antilles @ approx 20N/55W in 5-6 days.
12z NOGAPS shows 95L further west just off northeastern PR @approx 22N/65W in 5-6 days.
12Z CMC in 3 days has 95L moving NW approaching the northern Lesser Antilles.
My take as of now--no threat to the Gulf. Probable fish spinner.
The more interesting feature for us Gulf dwellers, however, is the current tropical wave near PR which majority of the models want to take into the Gulf next week (that's the monkey in the middle HF referred to last night). Bears watching.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 09:52 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
I never had it going up to the fl, ga boarder with Katrina. Alway had it going across the gulf maybe as far up as a Erin like path.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 09:55 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
I said on Ophelia that she might get turn more s then sw then forecasted and possibly go towards Fl,GA but said that was speculation and said my forecast is brushing the carolinas and brushing eastern longisland and capecod.
| Ryan |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 10:50 PM |
|
|
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Re: Ophelia
|
scott, i do not think it will come close to LI, NYor cape cod MASS..i mean the only thing it will do is liek give us some showers and waves but i mean not landfalling and prob not brushing but i mean it did look ike it sould brush us a couple days ago..shows how dramatically things change.
-RYAN, LI
| bigpapi |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 11:09 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
Rain finally ended here in Myrtle Beach. We escaped pretty easily. Some gusty winds overnight, no damage, etc... I was remarking around 3pm how odd these storms are, because I could at that point got in my car and drove route 17 for about an hour and been about 15 miles from the eye of the storm. Such a slow mover. Anyway, I have to say the late models yesterday were dead on in keeping Ophelia just off the coast. Not a bad job in general from the NHC either considering the slow movement of this storm. Looking at the latest radar it seems a little more of a North jog...We'll see.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 11:23 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
Our local meteorologist mentioned this one near PR this evening. He also said the Gulf waters are warmer again, 86 degrees here.
Think this could develop?
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 14 2005 11:28 PM |
|
Re: Ophelia
|
HankFrank, just saw your opinion on it. We'll be watching it here in Texas if anything develops.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 15 2005 01:32 AM |
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|
Re: Ophelia
|
well....talked to family tonight.... power is back on... but grandma said she can't stand the rain....she lives in Boiling Springs, NC... South of ILM....and she had 13inches of rain or so...... said curfew in effect for New Hanover and Brunswick Counties and a few others until mid morning until they can check the damage....... and there are parts of US-17 under water....(hwy runs from north to south along NC, close to beach)
but all is doing well......
side note....was browsing ESL and found some interesting (SAD) links... below are sat shots taking in the last week or so... http://katrina.esl.lsu.edu/katrina/
Courtesy NOAA NESDIS and RADARSAT INT
Sep 4, 2005 showing NO and lake
The dark/black area that is in the lake is what is being pumped out of NO into the lake.....possible oil/chemicals, etc.
Sep 2, 2005 showing Oil slicks the blackness in this shot is possible oil slicks in SE LA.
more oil slicks/spills from katrina.... sept. 2