MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 10:44 PM |
Rita Now a Category 5
|
5PM EDT Update
Rita is now a Category 5 hurricane with surface winds of 165-170mph and a sea level pressure of 906mb. This makes it one of the most intense hurricanes on record in the Atlantic basin, just shy of where Katrina was 3 weeks ago. Microwave imagery suggest that an eyewall cycle might be 12-18hr away, leaving it plenty of time to unfortunately strengthen further. More soon.
3PM EDT Update
Hurricane Rita is nearing category 5 intensity with a pressure just below 920mb and maximum sustained winds at 150mph. Recon recently reported a max wind of 173kt at 139m above the surface.
7:40 AM EDT Update
Hurricane Rita has now hit category 4 threshold with 135 MPH winds, and a pressure of 948 mb.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
7:00 AM EDT Update
Major Hurricane Rita is now well into the Gulf of Mexico still moving quickly along at 14MPH toward the west, the current model consensus still suggests the middle Texas coast, with the most likely location between Corpus Christi and Galveston. The cone of uncertainty ranges from Northern Mexico to Western Lousiana.
Rita is still set for intensifying right now, and it is forecast to reach Category 4 strength today. There is a possibility that Rita will breifly obtain Category 5 status as well. Some evacutions are already underway in the Galveston area, but no warning or watches are up for the Gulf coast as of yet.
More to come later today.
2:00 AM EDT Update
NHC has updated Hurricane Rita to Major Hurricane status.
Rita is expected to attain Category 4 status later today.
10:44 PM EDT Update
Hurricane Rita is down to 965MB in pressure, around 110MPH maximum sustained winds. The track so far is good heading generally westward then a slight northerly movement into perhaps the central to northern Texas coasts.
It is likely that Rita will strengthen further tonight into a category 3 system. The forecast calls for a category 4 storm later in the week as it moves toward the central Gulf. The door is open for Rita to possibly reach category 5 status, but shear expected toward the end would hopefully prevent that strong a storm from making landfall.
The forecast track itself hasn't changed all that much yet.
Gulf coast residents from Northern Mexico to Louisiana will need to watch Rita closely.
More available from Ed Dunham in the met blogs below, as well as in Clark Evans' blog from late Monday below Ed's latest.
Event-Related Links
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Houston/Galveston, TX Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi, TX Long Range Radar
Brownsville, TX Long Range Radar
Lake Charles, LA Long Range Radar
New Orelans, LA Long Range Radar
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Corpus Christi, TX, Houston/Galveston, Lake Charles, LA
New Orleans, LA
Brownsville, TX
CFHC Long term Key West Radar Recording of Rita
Level 3 High Res Radar recording of Rita passing south of the Keys
CFHC Long term Bahamas Radar Recording of Rita
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Emergency Management/County info
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Broward County Emergency Management
Palm Beach County emergency managment
Miami-Dade County Emergency Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Video/Audio
Local Media/Television
KHOU the CBS affiliate in houston, is former Hurricane Center director Neil Frank's station, and likely will begin streaming once warnings are up in the area
Channel 2 NBC affiliate in Houston
ABC 13 in Houston
Radio
KTRH Rado News/Talk station in Houston with streaming
Other Houston area radio
Web based Video and Audio
Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, is doing his live audio show as Rita approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here
Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is on his way toward Texas. see some of his live streaming video and audio here
Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports n the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX not affiliated with the real NHC
Reply and let us know of other links.
Rita
Animated model plots of Rita
Google Map plot of Rita
Floater satellite loops (With forecast track overlay):
Rita Floater Visible Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Shortwave Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Dvorak Loop
Rita Water Vapor Loop
Philippe
Animated model plots of Philippe
| oil trader |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 10:55 PM |
Re: Rita Nearing Category 3, Moving Away from the Keys
|
Katrina over NO and now Rita heading to Houston. Who designed this diabolic hurricane season, Osama? Two big and crowded cities, and the two most neuralgic energy networks in less than a month.
One oil analyst called Katrina "the perfect storm". If Rita affects Houston in the same way, I think that will be "too much" for the people and for the western economy. What a terrifying combination!. Meantime those oil rich nations, very hostile to US and democracy, still enjoying a lot watching this at CNN.
| JoeF |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:00 PM |
|
|
Re: Rita Nearing Category 3, Moving Away from the Keys
|
The eye should be leaving the KW Short Range shortly. Impressive site though.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.kbyx.shtml
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:01 PM |
|
72-hour forecast
|
The 72 hour forecast calls for Rita to be at 120 kt, down from 125 kt at 48 hours. While the 72 hour forecast is the last forecast point before landfall, we should be careful about saying the forecast landfall intensity is 120 kt, since the 72-hour forecast point is still a ways off of the coast. If the storm is in a weakening trend by then, it could easily weaken from 120 kt before landfall between 72-96 hours. NHC makes point forecasts, not exact landfall forecasts.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:20 PM |
|
Re: 72-hour forecast
|
Just highlighting a line from the last paragraph of the 11pm discussion...wow...NHC doesn't usually say things like this:
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY INDICATING RAPID INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. DURING THE PAST 14 HOURS...THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DECREASED 20 MB...OR AT A RATE OF ABOUT 2
DVORAK T-NUMBERS PER 24 HOURS. WHILE SUCH A LARGE PRESSURE FALL
TREND RARELY OCCURS FOR MORE THAN 24 HOURS...THE VERY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN AND 30C-31C SSTS BENEATH RITA SUGGEST
THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24
HOURS. A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL IS WELL ESTABLISHED WITH OUTFLOW
ACCUMULATING INTO A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW...OR MASS SINK...EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION... AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALSO
APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING. GIVEN THE DUAL OUTFLOW PATTERN THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS...STRENGTHENING INTO A
CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY. BY 72 HOURS... A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ABOUT SOME WEAKENING. HOWEVER...THE GFS-BASED SHIPS MODEL
THAT IS INDICATING 25-30 KT OF SHEAR MAY BE INCLUDING THE WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG OUTFLOW PATTERN DEPICTED BY THE MODEL.
THIS WOULD MEAN THAT THE GFS SHEAR IS TOO HIGH...AND THUS...THE
SHARP GFS WEAKENING OF RITA DOWN TO 99 KT AT LANDFALL WOULD BE
PREMATURE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE INTENSITY FORECAST OF 122 KT IN 48 HOURS AND 126 KT
IN 60 HOURS.
| robynsmom |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:27 PM |
|
Re: 72-hour forecast
|
Tampa Bay's Channel 10's Vortex takes Rita more Northerly...right towards New Orleans, LA.
Please forgive me for questioning whether this would be better since N.O is already destroyed and evacuated or not.
| jaybythebay |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:32 PM |
|
Re: 72-hour forecast
|
Clark or other Mets is there an area of the Gulf coast, we can say is pretty much safe at this point?(such as Ms/Al line east)
probably everything east of morgan city, la or so. -HF
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:39 PM |
|
Re: 72-hour forecast
|
No area is truly safe until the storm passes a region by. That would inherently push us to Tallahassee and points east as being "safe."
Having said that, I do not see anything that would bring this storm in any further east than toward Baton Rouge. I feel very confident in saying that areas from New Orleans eastward are safe. I feel slightly less confident for the rest of the Louisiana coastline, but I think any direct impact will be upon the western part of the state at most.
The ridge is just not budging. As alluded to last night, outflow from Max is being fed into the northern and western extent of the ridge, helping to maintain its strength. This is potentially where the GFS is failing to capture its strength from the get-go. There still isn't much to significantly erode or move the ridge in the 3-5 day time frame, though there are signs that it will begin to weaken and/or move slightly eastward. My forecast track thinking is largely unchanged from yesterday evening at this time, centered near Victoria, TX with areas from Beaumont to Corpus Christi in the main swath, though if anything I would shift it ever-so-slightly to the west given the evolution of the pattern.
Everyone from New Orleans west should still watch this one, but other than the potential flooding impacts from high waves on the far northern periphery of the storm to the city, I do not feel that there will be a direct impact from this storm anywhere from central Louisiana eastward.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:39 PM |
|
|
Re: 72-hour forecast
|
Each forecast brings the intensity up...and only a little more than three weeks after Katrina, an NHC discussion again mentions the possibility of reaching Cat 5 intensity.
Well at least Rita will be tracking to the south of the warmest pool of the loop current, the area Katrina went directly over. And while it appears now that intensity at landfall will likely be a major hurricane, much more likely to be a Cat 3 than a Cat 5 at landfall, but possibly the same issue with storm surge as Katrina (surge does not have enough time to dissipate to match the lower intensity at landfall).
for JoeF - switch to long-range and you will be able to see her eye on radar for awhile longer, although radar will be looking into the clouds at a higher angle.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:40 PM |
|
Re: 72-hour forecast
|
Quote:
Tampa Bay's Channel 10's Vortex takes Rita more Northerly...right towards New Orleans, LA.
Please forgive me for questioning whether this would be better since N.O is already destroyed and evacuated or not.
that thing has been either in line with the nhc or way off base which in this case it is again way off base.
Something not seen by any other major model or the NHC would have to happen for it to do that.Is it likely? no maybe 1% but its track record is about the same as the mm5 which is lousy.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:45 PM |
|
|
Re: 72-hour forecast
|
Just remember that a stall/slowdown or a wobble could put this thing ANYPLACE along the texas/south west LA border. The probability cone is still monstrously large and doesn't have any large currents able to force Rita to any particular place. She's going where she wants to go right now. Where do you go when the whole area is one weak pressure?
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:45 PM |
|
|
Storm Radius
|
I plotted Rita's current IR satellite image against a map of the GOM.
At 0245Z-last sat pic, Rita's outflow extended around 430nm to the North of the center. And around 397nm to the west. This is just the outflow envelope.
Very impressive in size.
By the way. The distance across the GOM, from Naples,FL to Matamoras,MX is near 850nm.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:50 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Storm Radius
|
Oh yeah, I expect by tomorrow we're going to see most of the GOM covered in Rita/outflow from Rita. It really did jump in intensity once is started clearing the tip of Florida.
| cody |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:52 PM |
|
Re: Storm Radius
|
how much of a impact do you think this hurricane will have on the san antonio area and 60 miles westward of it? I know this storm is predicted to make landfall closer to galveston, then if it went in a northward path that would put it east of SA...but it should be a big storm...any ideas of what could happen? Winds? Heavey rain? just wanting to know input..
thanks,
cody
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:55 PM |
|
Re: Storm Radius
|
Largely heavy rains, yes; perhaps tropical storm-force winds with gusts into hurricane-force, depending upon where exactly the storm makes landfall. If the storm heads into San Antonio after landfall, hurricane conditions are possible. Rita shouldn't leave quite the long-extending swath of damage inland quite like Katrina did, but what it does impact is going to be quite hard hit nonetheless. Keep an eye to what the storm is doing and make preparations as needed.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 20 2005 11:58 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Storm Radius
|
Well so you know, the current NHC track(which i personally trust more) has Rita coming in between Port Laveca and Freeport. I tend to think that tomorrow we'll see it shift a bit more north and closer to Galveston. I think San Antonio stands to get a fair bit of rain and definately some wind but I think you're going to be getting at worst Cat1 winds grazing you as the worst of the storm will be north/east of you and moving north away from you....
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:11 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Storm Radius
|
Just one more ? before crashing...how often does this large anti-cyclonic upper air movement happen over the GOM? This is the same thing that helped Katrina with her very impressive outflow.
I guess this means we'll be seeing a large windfield with Rita.
That probably means some water being pushed into Lake Ponchatrain by the next 48 hours.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:11 AM |
|
|
|
San Antonio
|
Cody,
Bookmark this link for the windspeed probabilities.
The last advisory has Sant Antonio with an 18% probability of getting Tropical Storm force winds, between 7 PM CDT Friday Night and 7 PM CDT Saturday Night.
That is subject to, and will, change.
Tropical storm force winds are 39mph to 57mph. Severe thundertorm type winds...and damage.
San Antonio should be on the NW side of the storm, but be sure to stay away from low lying places...especially those with the Flood Markers and low water crossing markers.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/NHC/PWSAT3
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:14 AM |
|
|
Re: San Antonio
|
I wouldn't put N.O. in the clear just yet. If Rita makes a NW turn sooner than expected all bets are off.
That's a big "if," though, and there's nothing to suggest it happening right now. Sure, it's a possibility and people in that area should watch the storm closely, but a direct impact is highly unlikely given the current pattern evolution. There is going to be some impact, yet, but a direct one isn't likely. Just my thoughts... -Clark
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:15 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Storm Radius
|
Definately...wonder how strong Rita is when she passes by NO. 4-8feet minimum storm surge I bet...lets pray on those levees, how far along the Corps of Engineers have come to shoring up all the OTHER levees that didn't break...
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:17 AM |
|
|
Lake Ponchartrain
|
Quote:
That probably means some water being pushed into Lake Ponchatrain by the next 48 hours.
New Orleans NWS issued this on Monday Afternoon.(edited)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
150 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005
...CURRENT MAIN CONCERN IS TWOFOLD...DEVELOPING SWELLS AHEAD OF THE
STORM MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE TIDES BY 2 TO 3 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN EAST WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 4 TO 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CAUSE A PROBLEM WITH ST BERNARD IF THE LEVEES AND GATES ARE OPEN. PARISHES AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL INCREASES OF 2 TO 3
FEET AND ENDANGER LOW AREAS SUBJECT TO TIDAL FLOODING.
SECONDLY...IN THE TRACK CHANGES ANY FURTHER TO THE EAST...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WILL BE CAPABLE OF EXPERIENCING 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHICH WILL COMPOUND RECOVERY EFFORTS IN THE SOUTHERN PARISHES.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDLIX&version=2&max=51
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:29 AM |
|
|
Re: Storm Radius
|
My son works at the Container Ship terminal at La Porte SE of Houston. Should Rita significantly impact the area, besides the pipeline and refinery problems, you're looking at serious troubles at one of the country's largest container ports. With the wind field and surge this storm could generate, economic impacts could be more severe than Katrina especially if the ship channel for tankers is negatively impacted. Worst case scenario is a sharp turn to the north offshore from Brownsville with a strong storm coming in almost perpendicular since that will pile water right up the channel. With a one year old daughter and living on the NW side of Houston, he's working till noon tomorrow, heading home to board up and driving to his in-laws in Fort Smith, AR. Took a little doing but I convinced him that he needs to protect himself and his family. Nothing else matters. Wherever this thing eventually goes, looks like a whole bunch of people are going to need our prayers and support.
| teal61 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:10 AM |
|
00z GFS...a new twist
|
the new run has shifted back to the southwest of Galveston, old news. However.... now it appears to stall out Rita in northeast Texas and the remnant low eventually moves back southward in response to a high building north of it. And on day six there is still a low located just north of Houston, and even on day 8+ there still seems to be some sort of reflection in the area. Unreal.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/
edited to shorten table breaking link. Click on the GFS for 21 Sep 05.
Medium...then the MSLP 1000-500mb Loop.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:22 AM |
|
|
|
Re: 00z GFS...a new twist
|
That could give something of an "Allison" scenario. Right?
| Beaujolais |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:29 AM |
|
|
Re: 00z GFS...a new twist
|
Geezus, I hope not. Cause here in SELA we received significant flooding from Alison, only a TS. With Katrina and the problems caused by that storm, Rita will only exacerbate the problems in New Orleans and surrounding areas and spell BIG trouble for Texas!! I hope that does not happen.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:54 AM |
|
|
Re: 00z GFS...a new twist
|
that's a first in the models... had been noticing the greater ambiguity in post-landfall track... there is that big high settling down that might shear off a lot of the storm and then leave the low-level feature to meander and rain itself out. just wait'n see if that recurs in future gfs runs or in other models... not a good scenario to be seeing.
HF 0554z21september
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:56 AM |
|
|
|
Rita Now a Category 3 Hurricane
|
HURRICANE RITA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 edited~danielw
...RITA BECOMES FIFTH MAJOR HURRICANE OF THE 2005 SEASON AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS...
...DATA FROM THE KEY WEST NOAA DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE NOW INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE SOMETIME LATER TODAY. ...
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:44 AM |
|
|
|
Rita
|
The satellites are back on line, and it appears that Rita is undergoing an ERC. 0715Z IR imagery is showing a 'swirl' into the NW Quad of the storm.
This was visible on all of the imagery sources.
Recon was tasked for a 06Z fix. Apparently something changed as the last flight departed the storm around 0230Z.
The Eye is still visible on Key West NWS radar. NHC is probably able to gather some data from that site. Even at the extended range. I believe the max range on the WSR88D radar is 256nm.
Rita had a 20mb drop in pressure, from 20/1203Z to 21/0204Z. If we were to extrapolate the pressure drop.
Rita could be approaching 955mb. However, if she is in an ERC that wouldn't necessarily be an accurate estimation.
Moving nearly due west would place her near 84.22W.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:50 AM |
|
|
|
5 AM EDT Advisory
|
HURRICANE RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 (edited~danielw)
INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RITA.
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES...285 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 160 MILES... 255 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF HAVANA CUBA.
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...195
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. RITA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE SOMETIME LATER TODAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/210832.shtml
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 05:32 AM |
|
|
|
5 AM discussion..and electronics
|
I don't really like the wording in the Discussion. I know they are telling us what they are seeing. But Rita is still in the backyard of many along the Northern Gulf Coast.
Here is an excerpt from the discussion.
HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 21 2005 (edited~danielw)
...THE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR THIS MORNING WAS SCRUBBED DUE TO ELECTRONICS PROBLEMS ON MULTIPLE AIRCRAFT. HOWEVER...BEFORE THE EYE WENT OUT OF RANGE OF THE VELOCITY DATA FROM THE KEY WEST WSR-88D...WINDS OF 100-115 KT WERE SEEN AT BETWEEN 9000-13000 FT...
...THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275-280 DEGREES AT 12 KT. RITA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 HR OR SO ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD...ALLOWING A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT ON
THIS RUN...AS THE GFS HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD FROM ITS PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHILE THE NOGAPS AND GFDN HAVE SHIFTED NORTHWARD FROM THEIR SOUTH TEXAS LANDFALL. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE...BEING NUDGED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK DURING THE FIRST 48-72 HR AND SLIGHTLY
WESTWARD THEREAFTER WITH A LANDFALL ON THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST IN JUST OVER 72 HR. HOWEVER...THESE CHANGES ARE IN THE NOISE LEVEL....
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/210843.shtml
(note:Electronic problems plagued the weather services last night. A computer problem prevented the airport METARs from being fed into one of the main computer systems. As above, NHC said they had multiple electronics problems on multiple aircraft.
? Was there a solar flare last night??~danielw)
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 05:33 AM |
|
|
Re: 5 AM EDT Advisory
|
My guess is that she will become a 5 before landfall. We have another monster on our hands.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 06:07 AM |
|
Re: 5 AM EDT Advisory
|
Quote:
My guess is that she will become a 5 before landfall. We have another monster on our hands.
This "conservative" wind speed estimation by the NHC is unnerving. When the guidance all shows that you have a 115kt storm on your hands, and the satellite imagery is bordering on superstorm (cat 5)... you set the intensity at 105kts? What the flub!?!? Granted, the discussion admits to the 105kts being conservative - most people don't know enough to read the discussion. They see "120 mph", and think "well, it's not to cat 4 yet, maybe it won't get there" (even though the NHC forecast 12 hours ago called for cat 4 intensity at 2pm this afternoon, not 4am). Stinks that it's out of Key West radar now basically... staged evacuations in an area that I would have considered well inland in Galveston (almost to the metro Houston area, from the map they showed?).
I'd ask if FEMA can handle this, but I know the answer. Really have to feel for the poor people in New Orleans who road a bus to what they thought was safety in Houston... and pray this thing doesn't make a hard right turn. I know, there's nothing to make it turn that way, but I'vve seen very odd things happen in the central GOM at times.
ETA: My guess, cat 5 by sunset. Who knows from there!
ETA2: From THE WEATHER CHANNEL... They're evacuating the Astrodome. Not shocking, but... *shakes head*...
ETA3: Stadium effect on IR now.. which isn't characteristic of a Cat 3, that I've ever seen. NW edge of convection is a tad ragged at the very edge, but I think that's just because the core is intensifying. We've got black back on the IR in the west and NW eyewall.
ETA3: and over 6 hours with no recon due to Gremlins. Ya think someone is trying to tell us something?
When is the next plane due into our storm of the week?
| TAZMAN |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 06:10 AM |
|
|
Re: 5 AM EDT Advisory
|
I cant help but wonder what it would have been like "back in the day" with a year like this.... and without the forecasting technology we have !! ..... also without sites like this one !! The whole Katrina episode would have been MUCH worse.
Thanks again to all here on this site... I mainly lay back and just take in all that you guys contribute !!
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 06:39 AM |
|
Re: 5 AM EDT Advisory
|
Quote:
I cant help but wonder what it would have been like "back in the day" with a year like this.... and without the forecasting technology we have !! ..... also without sites like this one !! The whole Katrina episode would have been MUCH worse.
This may be a really stupid question, but I'm going to ask it anyway. We have a High Surf Advisory up for my area, as I indicated, and I'm about as far from the projected landfall as you can get. What are the potential impacts to the N.O. area simply from high surf, even if the storm treks on through to Galveston? With the levee situation, I imagine it's got to be bad even then.
| Hootowl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 06:39 AM |
|
Re: 5 AM EDT Advisory
|
Hubby was listening to the TV (channel 10 from Tampa I think) as I was getting ready this morning. (you need to know he is not into the weather like I am). He said they were talking to "the Gray guy" (lol) and he said that Rita would be the second worst hurricane of his lifetime after Katrina. Lets hope not. Please God no!
HF - I saw that "stall" on the loop this morning too. It looked strange that Rita would go inland and "reverse". Thought I was seeing things.
Stay aware, stay safe
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 06:52 AM |
|
|
|
Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
Repost from earlier thread.
New Orleans NWS issued this on Monday Afternoon.(edited)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
150 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005
...CURRENT MAIN CONCERN IS TWOFOLD...DEVELOPING SWELLS AHEAD OF THE
STORM MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD OUR COASTAL WATERS INCREASING THE TIDES BY 2 TO 3 FEET THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. THIS ALONG WITH AN EAST WIND FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND 4 TO 5 FOOT SEAS WILL CAUSE A PROBLEM WITH ST BERNARD IF THE LEVEES AND GATES ARE OPEN. PARISHES AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN WILL EXPERIENCE TIDAL INCREASES OF 2 TO 3
FEET AND ENDANGER LOW AREAS SUBJECT TO TIDAL FLOODING.
SECONDLY...IN THE TRACK CHANGES ANY FURTHER TO THE EAST...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA WILL BE CAPABLE OF EXPERIENCING 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL WHICH WILL COMPOUND RECOVERY EFFORTS IN THE SOUTHERN PARISHES.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDLIX&version=2&max=51
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 06:54 AM |
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
Quote:
Repost from earlier thread.
New Orleans NWS issued this on Monday Afternoon.(edited)
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
150 PM CDT MON SEP 19 2005
Thanks Daniel... I saw it after I asked... definately NOT good. nothing about this hurricane season seems to have been good, though.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 07:30 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
Ok...
Dvorak estimates of 6.0 from SSD indicate a cat 4. Sat appearance looks excellent. We need a recon, and there won't be one for a few more hours, if they can find a working plane. There are supposed to be 6 hour fixes today - and the 06Z flight was canceled. Problem? 12Z fix is supposed to be the same flight that did the 06Z recon...er...I HOPE they get something up there soon. Maybe Airforce will get some of their hurricane hunters up with NOAA's not working?
GFS and CMC models are worrisome. GFS stalls the storm just after it crosses the coast...as if wind and storm surge weren't enough! CMC stalls the storm further north, over Oklahoma. We could have another Francis-like flooding situation coming up.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 07:46 AM |
|
|
Category 4
|
NHC has officially upgraded Rita to a Category 4 hurricane:
"...SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT RITA HAS BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE..."
and
"SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT RITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGHTEN AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. A NOAA PLANE WILL CHECK THE INTENSITY LATER THIS MORNING.
SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...28.00 INCHES."
Source: 8am Public Advisory
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 07:52 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
Morning.
Well there was definitely some concern about solar flares starting about a week ago I think.
OK - so 32mb drop in 24 hours (yest this time pressure was 988mb and now 956mb) is explosive deepening. This is what Katrina would have done the first day out of FL, if she had not encountered the difficulties with dry air. Symmetry looks very good on sat and looking at the 10:15Z and she looks very strong, and clearly the signature of a solid Cat 4 "donut" on the visual sat image, even if the pressure has not caught up (and with the next recon I imagine we will see that it has).
Really, really interested to see the first daylight sat image to see the appearance of the CDO and the eye, to get a handle on where she is as far as intensity, because it does look very strong. I would not be surprised if the pressures were down into the mid 940s. That would be a drop of around 45mb in 24 hours! This sounds absurd, I suppose, and I would like to think that I'm not getting carried away into what I felt was an intensity frenzy happening all day yesterday, because I'm basing it on the sat image appearance from this morning, and trying not to speculate.
Now Rita has entered the part of the loop current coming up from the western end of Cuba, and this is the day that I thought she would be strengthening...only I didn't realize she would have already strengthened to a strong Cat 3 before this time. Also she moved faster than I anticipated a couple days ago so I had originally thought she'd be going over this area Wed aft into Thurs am. Luckily her path west at around 24 lat doesn't take her over the more extreme warm portion of the loop current that is up around 26-27 lat, but it seems now that this will be enough to put her at Cat 5 today. So by the end of today, or tomorrow morning, she should be at her strongest over the entire trip through the GOM, and will likely drop in intensity before landfall. However she may not drop enough to significantly reduce storm surge, and may still maintain major hurricane status at landfall.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 08:01 AM |
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
Quote:
OK - so 32mb drop in 24 hours (yest this time pressure was 988mb and now 956mb) is explosive deepening. This is what Katrina would have done the first day out of FL, if she had not encountered the difficulties with dry air. Symmetry looks very good on sat and looking at the 10:15Z and she looks very strong,
Uh, I hate to be the bearer of horrific news, but the pressure is estimated to be 948. That's a FORTY MB drop in 24 hours (not sure when the 988 was, if it was at 5am or 8am ET, but in either case... it's a HUGE drop!)... accompanied by a satellite image that we might not find comprehensible if we had not seen the exact same imagery 3 1/2 weeks ago with Katrina.
On the bright side... the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season OFFICIALLY ends November 30. That's only 2 1/2 more months of potential pure H****.
UPDATE: Newest IR imagery shows an EWRC - I think. The really nasty (black) on the northern eyewall has been replaced by much less threatening dark orange (which is less intense than even the bright red that covers much of the central dense overcast). Impossible to tell what this will bring, I think... but it's a sign that the blasted thing may not strengthen to a Cat 5 in the next three hours, at least.
UPDATE2: EWRC may have been premature on my part. The very next IR image shows the bright red returning to the northern eyewall. Eye looks a tad ragged (almost binocular-like).. could be shrinking... bad bad bad.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 08:14 AM |
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
Ok now that we are thoroughly aware of the potential of Rita My question is still how many more major hurricanes are going to form and who is left on the list to obliterate. The only potential danger that has not been met with a major storm is a direct hit on Tampa Bay. I believe all the coastlines have been struck: Pensacola, Fort Walton, Louisianna, Mississipi and Texas. I KNOW the Bucs are a favored football team to some of us but they ain't that good......Gallows humor Hopefully Rita will burn her fuel before she gets to Texas and she will be a rainstorm.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 08:15 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
I'm not seeing any sign of a ERC on IR. The covection is blooming again after a 1-frame lapse:
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get...mp;numframes=20
--
GuppieGrouper: Based on SSTs and heat potential of the waters...the areas where major storms could form right now are southwest (northern hemisphere) Atlantic and south of Cuba.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 08:51 AM |
|
|
another cat 5 in the GOM within 3 weeks?????
|
there's been a lot of posts lately that poo-pooed the idea another cat 5 could form. But what perhaps missed their thinking was that the energy levels in the Gulf of Mexico may have been far from expended..
Rick, we know the energy is there, just not how much of it and what the storm can do with it. It's a crapshoot, really, given Katrina's passage and highlights how much we still don't know about intensity forecasting. The NHC has generally been below most others' calls for the storm thus far, which isn't a bad thing but does highlight their conservative nature and wanting to wait for actual data before upgrading a storm (which is what a certain member of the media always screams for but convieniently ignores when it doesn't prove his point). -Clark
since Katrina, we've had NO rain in Mobile...further, the humidity and heat index has been 105-110...August like stuff.
the weather this morning was less humid. Rita is sucking the moisture and heat into her llc....which means that we will have beautiful weather while she slides south of us, and on to happless Texas. I don't think New Orleans will be affected. However, if the forward speed slows...then that will be a harbinger of a change in direction.
things change...and so will the projected landfall.....she might just stay west....or could hook toward Louisiana...
who knows?...but the NHC does an admirable job of forecasting, I think.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 08:54 AM |
|
Re: 72-hour forecast
|
Here in Beamont the met is saying we could see TD or Cat 1 winds (not maintained, but some gusts) and rain. Possible power
outages. Projected landfall at this time is about 100 miles from us. Everyone is getting ready, stocking up and getting gas, etc.
(just incase the path changes). My sister lives in Sugarland so I am concerned. What effects will this storm have on the Houston
area if it hits between Palacious and Matagorda Bay as projected. Also, they are saying the storm may weaken before landfall.
Weaken to what catagory?
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 08:55 AM |
|
Re: another cat 5 in the GOM within 3 weeks?????
|
Today in Beaumont we are supposed to reach 101degrees.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 08:57 AM |
|
Re: 00z GFS...a new twist
|
We don't need another Allison. She just didn't want to go away.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 08:57 AM |
|
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
Hugh, you sir are not the bearer of the horrific news.
Unfortunately, we have all been shaken by this hurricane season
and the monster storms it has produced.
Its great to see government leaders taking action in Texas to protect life and property as
much as possible.
What we had in Central florida last year with Charley, Jeanne and Francis was
and afternoon thunder storm compared to Katrina and now apparently Rita.
I've said it before that for me at least, knowing how horrific these storms are,
has begun to take the "fun" if it can be called fun out of tracking these things.
I'm ready for the season to be over.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 08:59 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
Just heading off to work but wanted to note - look how much she's grown since 1am, and the eye looks very impressive.
Still seeing a distinct spiral pattern to the convection but I imagine if she continues to increase in intensity we'll see that smooth out and become very symmetrical.
| trinibaje |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 09:03 AM |
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
You are right these storms are taking the fun out of tracking...
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 09:08 AM |
|
|
|
movement
|
w-wsw
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 09:09 AM |
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
Hi,
I´m a storm tracker and meteorologist from Germany. Fortunatly enough, we don´t have hurricanes here.
I found this interesting forum some days ago and decided to join.
I have a question: Given that Rita heads for Texas. What would be the "best" location to make landfall there and what the "worst"?
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 09:12 AM |
|
|
|
Re: another cat 5 in the GOM within 3 weeks?????
|
Rick I was definitely not seeing the ability to strengthen over the last 24 hour period that has just occured, because of a couple things I'll mention below. But I also don't care for the hunger for hype, and hunger for devastation. You only have to drive 60 miles to the west of you to be reminded of the eastmost edge of a horrible trail of coastline devastation that extends all the way to the tip of LA, so you would think people would have had enough, and wouldn't crave more. I've never understood that national cultural bent of the last 20 or so years.
It was not clear to me how much SSTs could support increased convection even with the increase in speed, without significant depths of warmer water, also I didn't pick up on the wind shear forecast to be as low as it turned out, but mainly I have begun to think since last night that the most important factor, which I knew about but which I did not put in proper order of importance, is the large anti-cyclonic movement in the upper atmosphere over the GOM. I now think this is the main factor beyond anything else in the past 24 hours that has facilitated strengthening, not the depth of warm water or lack of depth. I think this is key to whether high-intensity storms can form over the GOM.
I had always anticipated however that strengthening would occur during the time period we are in now, where the deeper warm waters exist in the southern GOM. So I think we'll definitely see continued strengthening right up until this evening.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 09:19 AM |
|
Re: another cat 5 in the GOM within 3 weeks?????
|
Margie,
I was not going to say it, but I will anyway, there was nothing to keep Rita from intesnifying like she did as well as kATRIna, that is RITA inside her. I said yesterday that I expected Rita to be a CAT4 by 48 HRS, well it has been only 24 HRS. I my memory serves me right, it was you who commented that there was no way the Rita would gather strength like she did due to the fact that the SST's were too low. Well, the water temps being reported all over the Gulf are well above 86 degrees. Hopefully for Texas Rita will start to diminish prior to landfall, but I don't see it in the forecast. It is never what you want to report, due to what Katrina left behind. There is no way knowing what she is going to do, and again, if the ridge slides east and weakens, then N.O is not out of the woods yet, only till Rita crosses that Longitude.
Rita's letters being inside of Katrina has nothing to do with its intensity. The sea surface temperatures are still warm, but they are not everything. That's what myself and many others, including Margie, have been looking at to try to diagnose the future intensity of the storm. Just because Katrina did one thing does not mean that Rita will do the same. -Clark
| Lisa NC |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 09:23 AM |
|
Re: another cat 5 in the GOM within 3 weeks?????
|
I was just doing some comparing between Katrina's location and presssure and Rita's. Based on Advis, ( http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/2005/KATRINA/track.dat )Katrina was in about the same location and same pressure but weaker winds.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 09:36 AM |
|
Re: 5 AM EDT Advisory
|
They're evacuating the Astrodome because it's not safe in a hurricane - it has a glass roof!. All the NOLA evacuees that were still in shelters along the coast (including the Astrodome) were flown either to Arkansas or Tenn. Mostly to Arkansas.
At this point, with Rita as big as she is - I don't think there's a 'best' place for it to hit Texas - Bret hit Kenedy County as did Allen (I think) but Rita is bigger. The 'worst' place? The place I know best is Galveston and up the Houston ship channel. You can see what a catastrophic hurricane might do in this video that the Harris County OEM put together - The Serpent's Coil at http://www.hcoem.org/videos.htm there are other videos there too about hurricanes and Harris County.
Well, now some tv mets here are saying we'll see TS winds and some are saying hurricane winds here. Guess it will be pretty close!
I'm still trying to figure out Rita's physical size vs other hurricanes like Katrina and Carla...
| Cindi |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 09:44 AM |
|
Re: another cat 5 in the GOM within 3 weeks?????
|
Thank you all for replying to me yesterday regarding the storm hitting the FL Panhandle. I do have another question, though...if this storm is going where it wants, what keeps it from doing a loop and coming back towards FL? I have lived in Panama City for the last 17 years, and only recently (since those darn "IVAN" spawened tornadoes we went through last year) have I really gotten itchy about these storms. I have told my husband we are LEAVING if any come our way... I'd rather watch it on TV at my sister's house than go through that mess again.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 09:45 AM |
|
|
|
Margie...
|
You posted this.....But I also don't care for the hunger for hype, and hunger for devastation.
You adjective is understandable....but perhaps replace "hunger" with fascination or awe....that's what it is. NO ONE wants a cat 5 storm. no one. (well, maybe a sado-masichist does...but I doubt there are any on this board...ha!
but it should teach mankind how puny he really is...and perhaps....how ineffective he is at governing and ruling himself. I mean, truthfully, if the hurricane hits Galveston, thousands will die....they know it...yet thousands will still die.
go figure....
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 09:47 AM |
|
Rita
|
Well, I suppose it is a guessing game on how strong Rita is until they can get a plane in there. It looks very well organized, but does not quite look as good as Katrina did when it became a cat 5, with more of a spiral organization compared to the big donut that Katrina turned into. My guess is a central pressure of 940 mb with a top wind speed of 125 knots.
I kind of hope that it at least maintains itself until a plane gets in there and we can see how strong it has gotten. After that, I hope it begins a long weakening trend.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 09:53 AM |
|
|
|
Re: another cat 5 in the GOM within 3 weeks?????
|
Yes, katrina didn't turn into a monster for about another day after it's initial entrance into the florida straits/GOM. It was moving at about 1/3 of the speed and took much longer to build. Katrina was also held back by a dry ridge that kept feeding dry air into it. God, now that I remember, imagine what Katrina COULD have done if that dryu ridge hadn't chomped on her for about a day. Inconceivable. Unfortunately, Rita doesn't have anything like that at all...
The problem with Rita is that she is covering alot more distance/quicker so it has a greater source of energy from the warm waters then Katrina did.
As for the people who say that Katrina took alot of the energy out of the GOM, lets remember its been 3 weeks of hot temperatures since Katrinca came through. The SST's have had a chance to rebound some and i'm sure that enough mixing has occured that I personally don't see the waters Katrina mixed up as slowing this monster's growth down.(and I think that the explosive growth we've seen proves that as well).
I told Hugh in a private msg that all of us amateurs AND the professionals are thinking of Rita about 6-12 hours behind what its actually doing. We were talking of it like it was a CAT2 when it was already a CAT3 and heading for a 4. 40mb in 24 hours is astounding! We need to get ahead of this one.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 09:56 AM |
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
Worst would be Houston/Galveston. But a Cat 5 could affect the whole coast, much like Carla did in 61.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 09:56 AM |
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
No eyewall cycle appears imminent and given the current representation of the storm on microwave imagery, none appears to be in the offing for at least 12hr -- and probably longer. The storm is very symmetric on this morning's microwave offerings with no signs of a concentric eyewall present on any of the shots. There *may* be the makings of what could eventually congeal into an outer eyewall, but this feature is more of a band in nature right now and only extends about 25% of the way around the storm (and is broken at that). An eyewall cycle is coming, but not right now. Recon will tell the tale later this morning, I believe.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:02 AM |
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
What intensity are we looking at for landfall? Also, how big will the storm be? Also, do you think she will continue with this
fast pace or slow down any? I
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:02 AM |
|
Re: Margie...
|
Rick,
How did you fair with Katrina?
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:03 AM |
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
I think an ERC is inevitable at some point. The big question is the timing of when it happens and how the storm rebounds from it. If it weakens somewhat, how much will it be able to recover further west in the Gulf and will the timing favor an intensifying or weakening storm as it approaches the coast? I guess we'll find out.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:06 AM |
|
|
|
my boat
|
went through the top of the covered pier...10,000 damage...but insured.
people are getting gas around here. fearful of the fact that the GOM has LOTS of drilling platforms...lots of them...and NONE of them are built past a category 3 threshhold....
look for another spike in gas prices, and long lines. anyone along the coast OUGHT to gas up today....
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:06 AM |
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
Beaumont,
The storm in diameter is probally a little larger as compared to Katrina at the same point in LAT/LONG. It has been reported that the storm now covers over 400 Square miles. Now I don't know if that answers your question or not, but also believe that Rita will maintain a highend CAT 4 intensity prior to landfall. There was some suggestions that the shear out of the SW might be injected into the storm, but as of right now, doesn't look like anything is going to impede Rita.
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:10 AM |
|
|
Off Topic ???
|
A question for the Experts while RITA is in the Gulf - - I've been watching the destruction of Philippe and I am curious about the chance of the southern end of that energy breaking off and developing into something we need to be concerned about??
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:10 AM |
|
Re: my boat
|
Glad to hear that you yourself made it through, material things can always be replaced. I believe you should tell the residents of Texas what to expect and to heed the warnings, as you have first hand exeperiance from the most destructive storm in our history.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:11 AM |
|
Phillipe?
|
Sorry to get off Rita but what is Phillipe doing. I know the NHC mentioned that the GFS was keeping part of him around in the early am run. Now I'm seeing it from other models turning south,
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early2.png
The 06 GFS has it turning back south also:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/05092106/3.html
What is going on? I thought he was out of here?
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:11 AM |
|
Re: Off Topic ???
|
Do you mean Katrina?
| oil trader |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:13 AM |
|
Track
|
Does anyone has a huge disagreement with the NHC path forecast and landfall point at this juncture?
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:14 AM |
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
Clark,
Have a question.
What causes hurricanes to go through a ERC?
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:16 AM |
|
Re: Track
|
If I lived along the TX Gulf coast, I would leave now. It is better to be safe than sorry. Right now you have to assume the worst and hope for the best. Why put yourself and possibly your family lives at risk. Considering you have a family of course.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:17 AM |
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
Thanks for the information. Size of the storm matters. If it makes landfall where it is supposed to we will have some wind and rain,
possibly tornadoes, from the outer bands. I know size of the storm can matter as much as intensity because it will effect a
broader area. Everyone is stocking up here...just in case. Hank Frank, looks like you called it right a couple of weeks ago when you
said Texas might get a storm.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:20 AM |
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
What everyone fails to remember, the size of the storm really does matter. Everyone gets transfixed on the center, but it is the size of the storm that creates the huge storm surge that comes with the most powerful storms. They can push an unbelievable amount of water for greater distances and time. This is where peolple make the fatal mistake of sometimes choosing to stay behind to guard their property.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:22 AM |
|
|
|
what to expect....
|
at landfall, Katrina's eyewall flattened out, and it covered the entire coastline of Mississippi. the storm surge was 35 feet...it was 5 ft higher at my marina than when George hit a few years ago...and George was much closer.
Katrina maintained cat 5 strength for quite a while.....all along the coast....for the first 1500 yards....either nothing, or just slabs....a few toilets...etc...(Mississippi).....
I am hearing of report after report of people missing that elected to "ride it out"....an engineer here showed me a picture of a neighborhood miles inland....total devastation. he showed me his friends house....and then said...see that slab over there?.....they stayed....an middle aged nice couple who thought they were safe. never found.
that story could be repeated, I'm sure. impossible to determine the death toll. interesting that the government will NOT really talk about that...
anyone who does not get inland at least 5-6 miles...to avoid the storm surge...is risking their lives. period.
the surge was estimated at 35 ft. to get an idea...go look at a telephone pole...and imagine the water that high....(at landfall).....
Storms are getting stronger. global warming has risen the temperatures about .5 degrees world wide...(1/2 degree)...and some scientists are saying that is more than enough to cause these canes to be so much more destructive.
cat 5 storms are no long 100 year events....for now...they are monthly....
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:24 AM |
|
Re: Off Topic ???
|
Wingman 51, That's what I'm wondering too. The new GFS runs are hinting at that. Time will tell I guess. I'm not good at diagnosing the weather patterns. I don't know what will happen if he turns south or a piece of him does.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:27 AM |
|
Re: what to expect....
|
Great post.
Everyone from the GAL/HOU area should take these wanring seriously.
| flarrfan |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:32 AM |
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
Quote:
Hi,
I´m a storm tracker and meteorologist from Germany. F
I have a question: Given that Rita heads for Texas. What would be the "best" location to make landfall there and what the "worst"?
Worst obviously is the major metro area of Galveston/Houston, with its important port, oil facilities, and two million plus people. Best scenario would be a SW deviation from current forecast track, bring it in about midway between Corpus Christi and Brownsville. Aside from vacation homes and condos along the narrow South Padre barrier island, there is almost nothing on the mainland aside from large cattle ranches. One of the counties south of CC has, per my atlas, a population of less than 500 people in an area about half the size of Harris County (Houston). So wishcasters need to keep that high pressure ridge in place and steer the storm west without any north turns, for the least damage and destruction.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:33 AM |
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
Beaumont,
Take this for what it is worth: By Joe B.
I BELIEVE RITA WILL BE THE STRONGEST HURRICANE EVER TO HIT TEXAS...
Now that should say alot about the storm that hit GAL.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:37 AM |
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
This is Joe B's full post:
WEDNESDAY: RITA HITS TEXAS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT BETWEEN PORT LAVACA AND GALVESTON AS A CATEGORY 4 OR 5. CARLA'S PRESSURE TO BEAT IS 935. A MAJOR SHOT OF COOL AIR INTO EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION SIGNALS END OF SUMMER PATTERN.
1.) No major changes on Rita, the though timing and end game path tweaking will be needed later as we get closer to landfall. Expected landfall is southwest of Alicia, but northeast of Carla, the last two category 3 or greater storms to hit here. Comparisons to Carla to be contained in later day disco. Model swings will not influence forecast here until at least tomorrow, if ever.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:42 AM |
|
|
|
Re: what to expect....
|
Have not seen any surge numbers above 30 ft for Katrina. 30 ft measured in Biloxi, and 29 and 30 ft measurements in BSL, these are official numbers. Am going to be getting some more info on this soon. Remember there were waves on top of the surge, but only right at the shoreline. The surge right at the coast went inland an average of 1/2 mile and for the most part between 1/4 mile and 3/4 mile, as can be seen by comparison of NOAA high-resolution images showing the debris line at the edge of the surge, with topographic maps that show elevation. Exceptions: All of Plaquemines Parish was at a low enough elevation as to probably be completely underwater from Venice to some points northward as Katrina passed over. Also the topography of St Bernard rendered it very vulnerable to flooding from the Gulf side, even without the levee and canal failures. Some areas inland of BSL continued at a low enough elevation to allow the surge further inland. The surge also affected shoreline bordering bays, inlets, rivers, and streams. The key to determining if surge will hit a location would be the elevation and proximity the coastline, which would be hit with waves as well.
It will be interesting in future to see classification and categorization of hurricanes beyond the intensity scale. I will be interested someday to see analysis of more subtle characteristics that will point to specific behaviors.
For instance, with Katrina, the pressure drops came first and then winds caught up. This catch up took a long time to complete; the first several days over the GOM pressures were always lower than the corresponding windspeeds while fighting dry air.
With Rita, the windspeeds increased ahead of the pressure and organization of the storm. The time this discrepancy was most obvious was when the winds increased to Cat 2 level.
Looking at it from a casual point of view you might say each storm has its own personality. However I am sure it is a set of commonalities that will eventually be defined and will be able to lead to identification of storm characteristics that will help forecast intensity and other behaviors.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:52 AM |
|
Re: what to expect....
|
11am has 140 mph winds and the same track basiclly.My question is what city and area is the landfall track right now? if it were to hit where they got the dot (not likely but) that that be med bad or worse then north or what?
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:52 AM |
|
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
Just heard that the Hurricane Hunters are having electrical problems on the plane so there is difficulty getting accurate and current data. No mention of another plane going out. Could be later today for accurate readings
| pryord1 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:52 AM |
|
Re: another cat 5 in the GOM within 3 weeks?????
|
Cindi,
I will try to address your concerns from the post you placed earlier. There is a very strong high pressure ridge that has settled over us in the FL Panhandle. This, along with other factors, is protecting us from Rita (like a "bubble" over us), pushing the storm west. The high has the potential to weaken and move east over the next couple of days and that is what should cause the storm to turn north and head toward TX. But by then the storm will be well to the west of the FL Panhandle. There is a front dropping from the NE that could influence the path but it is weak and will probably not have too much influence on it. The front is probably not strong enough to force is back to the extreme NE- our direction. I believe the most the front could do is push it into LA or perhaps extreme sw Mississippi, but it is unlikely that will even happen. I think we can breathe a sigh of relief for ourselves. Just pray for the people to the west of us- they need it again!
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:53 AM |
|
|
|
Re: what to expect....
|
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND COULD REACH CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.
OUCH. It's still dropping like a stone and there is nothing stopping it. 140mph and 944mb...could be a CAT5 within hours if no ERC occurs...
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:56 AM |
|
Re: what to expect....
|
so if this is the landfall spot http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518.html is that real bad area or does it save the ports some with that landfall??
| Marknole |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:57 AM |
|
|
Re: Track
|
Even this far out, almost all models (including the FSU Superensemble) show a landfall close to Matagorda Bay. So far (and it is too early for more than speculation), no one has mentioned potential devistating effects of a slowly weakening hurricane well inland.
Victoria at first, but later Luling, Austin (and if the sharp right-hand turn predicted happens), Bryan/College Sta.
As the track becomes more certain, most sane people will get away from the coastal areas. Texans living inland should remember the effects of fast-moving Hurricane Charlie, and the 100+mph winds all the way up the peninsula through Orlando and Daytona.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 10:59 AM |
|
|
|
we need skeetobite *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:00 AM |
|
Re: Track
|
Quote:
Even this far out, almost all models (including the FSU Superensemble) show a landfall close to Matagorda Bay. So far (and it is too early for more than speculation), no one has mentioned potential devistating effects of a slowly weakening hurricane well inland.
Victoria at first, but later Luling, Austin (and if the sharp right-hand turn predicted happens), Bryan/College Sta.
As the track becomes more certain, most sane people will get away from the coastal areas. Texans living inland should remember the effects of fast-moving Hurricane Charlie, and the 100+mph winds all the way up the peninsula through Orlando and Daytona.
totally different monkey as charle was over flat land which texas is not.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:01 AM |
|
Re: we need skeetobite *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:02 AM |
|
|
|
Re: what to expect....
|
the NHC has the track a little N/E of that position which i tend to agree with...point really will be moot though because it's going to be monstrous and will probably affect almost all of the Texas Gulf Coast with at least Cat1 winds/monster storm surge...
You never want to wish harm to one set of people to spare others but its better that it hits there instead of hitting NO/Biloxi again. If i was within 100miles of the Gulf Coast in Texas, i'd seriously consider going inland more right about now.
| ShanaTX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:04 AM |
|
Re: Track
|
True, but fast moving strong storms can come inland quite a ways. Carla was a 4 in 1961 and was still a 1 when she got near Austin. It all depends on where it hits, the angle and direction. Carla caused alot of damage all the way to Dallas.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:06 AM |
|
Re: what to expect....
|
It should be noted that nobody really knows exactly how strong the storm is right now... the winds and pressure are conservative estimates based on the satellite appearance. If the winds and pressure from the next recon flight come in signficantly different from the current values, that will not necessarily mean the storm is rapidly changing, but that the original estimates were off.
There is a NOAA plane in the air right now. I assume we will be getting some recon fixes from that in an hour or two.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:10 AM |
|
Re: what to expect....
|
To all Weather Experts:
We all seen earlier in the season what the African dust did to elimiate the developemnet of tropical lows/depressions/storms.
So why can they have 4 planes go into each quadrant of the hurricane and drop 10,000 lb bags of sand into the storm. What effects will this have to reduce the size or intensity if the African dust was capable of doing it.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:10 AM |
|
|
|
Re: we need skeetobite
|
Quote:
Does anyone want to predict the price of a gallon of gas by Saturday/Sunday timeframe.
Just paid $2.55 last night. I'm sure it will push $3.50 or more but what concerns me more than price, which does concern me is the availability. If you can't get it, it really doesn't matter how much it cost.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:12 AM |
|
Re: what to expect....
|
well i tend to try and look at best case not worst like wondering what gas will be the weekend and how strong thw storm will be.I tend to try and look for good things that may happen like this from the nhc....The heat content in the western Gulf of
Mexico is not as favorable as in the area of The Loop current so
slight weakening is anticipated....but Rita is expected to make
landfall as a major hurricane...at least category three.
Hey its hope and maybe the north turn won't happen.Im not saying for anyone to let there guard down but many people are like Fox news in that unless its bad they won't post.If this storm got weaker from some reason many would stop posting.say its not true but your wrong.
We live in a day of the more bad the news is the more we talk about it.So posts like lets bet how many rigs wash ashore or what the price of gas is going to be sat to me are ....................... anyway yoiu guys build it up ill try and pray it down.
| pryord1 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:12 AM |
|
Re: we need skeetobite
|
I don't think gas prices will be the big issue soon- it will be a matter of just being able to get your hands on it!
FYI- conditions in NW FL Panhandle: Rita is almost directly below us, offshore about 350 miles. Pressure is fairly steady, humidity very low 65%) for our area, N winds about 5 mph, not a cloud in the sky. East Bay flow is moving rapidly W and the mullet are jumpin'! The fish are having a party... I don't hear any birds but the cichadas (sp?) are partyin' too!
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:13 AM |
|
|
Re: Track
|
Quote:
totally different monkey as charle was over flat land which texas is not.
Actually, the part of Texas that Rita is heading for is very flat like Florida.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:13 AM |
|
Re: what to expect....
|
Objective Dvorak T-numbers of 7.0 indicate for Rita suggest cat 5 intensity. I guess we'll find out soon how well the satellite estimate corresponds to reality this time.
| Marknole |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:13 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Track
|
Shana, I don't know the geography of S.E. Texas too well, (but N.W. of San Antonio is the "Hill Country", so there must be some elevation.
Ralph, I see your point, but the path Charlie took is the Highlands Ridge (Polk, Orange, Lake Counties, etc.) Not exactly a mountain chain, but it never did break up the circulation enough to elevate the highest surface winds. My point was a major hurricane, moving along at a fast clip brings inland winds to places that don't see more than an occasional Severe T.S. (Remeber the damage from Hugo all the way to Columbia & Charlotte...)
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:14 AM |
|
|
|
Re: what to expect....
|
Just got a chance to look at the satellite images.
Looking stronger, more symmetric, and larger, and appears to have strengthened in the last couple of hours. On visual, the "buzzsaw" appearance much clearer, the eye looking more like a Cat 5, and the area of the eyewall just surrounding it as well; seeing more smoothed appearance with those little ripples/crinkles all around. On Dvorak IR, has the appearance of a strong Cat 4 or Cat 5; buzzsaw appearance even more striking. Most recent image from 14:45 shows this most pronounced and the continued move towards complete symmetry in the core windfield. Also this image shows the stadium effect quite well, which means windspeeds have increased significantly since a couple of hours ago. The eye looks like it has tightened up (because of the stadium effect it still appears to be larger).
I am seeing some shear to the W and N, on the high winds of the outflow, but this doesn't seem to really be affecting the storm.
Like Katrina this storm has very strong spiral banding feature and the eyewall characteristics also seem to be very similar.
The difference in organization and growth of the core windfield between the 09:15Z and the 14:45Z images are striking on wv loop.
| Chris Bryant |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:15 AM |
|
Re: we need skeetobite *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
I found one here: http://gom.rigzone.com/rita.asp
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:15 AM |
|
|
|
dumping sand in storm *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:17 AM |
|
Forum Posting
|
From the Site Usage Rules:
"Low Content Posts: Please do not make single line posts containing no
content (ie, "cool" "hello", "I agree", or something else completely void of
meaning). Or general cheerleading, for example, if you think someone did a
good job and have nothing else to add send them a PM, it works better for
this. Otherwise posts like these just litter up the forums. Remember, CFHC
is not a Chat Room - it is a Niche topic-oriented site, so please attempt to
stay 'on topic' by placing your posts in the proper Forum."
The attempt here is to avoid the use of one-line posts. CFHC is not a Chat
Room, it is a site for Forum-oriented dialogue, so please use it that way.
Reviewing many of the posts over the past two days, most of the one-liners
add nothing to the exchange of information. A lot of them ask questions that
have already been answered elsewhere - sometimes more than once. Before you
ask a question, take the time to review some of the other Forums - odds are
that it already has been answered. Use the PM feature to thank someone for
their input. Personal information does not belong on this site - it just
clutters it. Keep in mind that there is another Forum for asking questions
of a more general weather nature - please use it when appropriate. When you
post a one-liner like "I think that its moving WSW" and you don't include
anything else - like WHY you think this - its going to get deleted by the
Moderators. Sometimes we let this stuff go, but when we start to receive a
bunch of complaints from other site users - we attempt to resolve the
problem. Please help us by following the site rules - it makes the job of
site moderation a lot easier ... and it provides for a more enjoyable
experience for all of the site users. Thanks for your help on this.
| pryord1 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:18 AM |
|
Re: we need skeetobite *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
Boy, that doesn't look good at all...
| Ed G |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:19 AM |
|
Re: what to expect....
|
"drop 10,000 lb bags of sand into the storm"
LMAO! Great plan!
Please make sure it's not over residential area when the bomb bay doors are opened.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:20 AM |
|
Re: we need skeetobite *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
Quote:
I found one here: http://gom.rigzone.com/rita.asp
thanks nice map.If it stays the way it is that will miss many rigs lets pray it stays south like the track has right now.
Thanks for that post,.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:20 AM |
|
Re: what to expect....
|
Ralph,
I was not posting or hoping the magnitude of a particular storm. It is by nature, and I use that word, because we all seen the panic that came with Katrina at least 3/4 days in advance of landfall. The prices were hitting $6.00 a gallon in Atlanta. Then there after were still quite high. The nature of these storms causes panic especially the oil platforms and pipelines. It is a fact of life, that when a storm with the size and wind field potenial as Rita has, the concern for oil prices take a hit and spike up. That is all I was trying to relate to.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:21 AM |
|
|
|
Re: what to expect....
|
Just read the 11am NHC discussion.
I think the intensity forecast will be increased even more once they get some recon info. Hard to believe now that I look at the 12-hr throught 36-hr intensity forecast and see it as being conservative, but looking at the satellite images it would seem so.
| traka |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:22 AM |
|
Re: what to expect....
|
You are not serious are you, Force?
There is an artical in Scientific American about controlling hurricanes.
Here's a Slashdot link to it.
Controlling Hurricanes
I think that the last thing we need to do is try to control them. Well... plugging up volcanoes is the last thing we need to do, but controling hurricanes is a close second.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:24 AM |
|
|
|
Re: we need skeetobite *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
Actually over the shear speculation of the storm, gas prices already jumped I believe yesterday or the day before, barrels were up $3-4 per. Let us not also forget that all of the off shores that were previously damaged and then folks sent back to those to work will be moved out again. Anything that Katrina missed and or damaged will sustain more of the same this time. I know in Tampa I have seen the prices spike a couple of cents the last couple of days. I would suggest filling now to avoid the increase and rush. Here is a site that will tell you the cheapest in your areas http://www.gasbuddy.com/
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:29 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Track
|
You are correct, the area at this point forecast is very flat and marshy/swampy much like the SW side of FL in which Katrina passed over prior to getting into the GOM
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:29 AM |
|
Re: we need skeetobite *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
but if you look at the map http://gom.rigzone.com/rita.asp and look at it if the strom stays that dir or even some south it will not do as much damage as if it goes north.
What im saying is if it stays the path it won't be worse case for Gas.IMO i don't see as bad as katrina if the path holds since not alot of rigs in its path as with the other storm.
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:30 AM |
|
|
Re: Track
|
Quote:
Shana, I don't know the geography of S.E. Texas too well, (but N.W. of San Antonio is the "Hill Country", so there must be some elevation.
Houston is as flat as a pancake... 55ft. elevation.
As you head up towards Dallas (about 500ft. elevation), where the storm is headed, there are rolling hills.
The hill country is way far west of Houston, past Austin and San Antonio, but the storm's not headed that way....
And to continue the geography lesson, the population of metro Houston is 4 million+, not 2 million as suggested earlier...
Allison
{This post to be sent to the Hurricane Graveyard...}
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:36 AM |
|
NOAA plane
|
Assuming I am interpreting the data correctly, the NOAA plane found flight-level winds of 136 knots and surface winds (from the SFMR) of 123 knots in the NE quadrant of the storm about 15 minutes ago.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:36 AM |
|
|
|
Re: we need skeetobite *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
I had already looked that the Rig Map prior to responding,
Edit - I think we need to move oil price future posts to another thread.
| pryord1 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:37 AM |
|
Re: we need skeetobite *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
Could anyone please tell me if Rita will keep her forward speed as she approaches the coast? She's moving pretty quickly. Our saving grace w/Dennis (if you could call it that) was the fact that he didn't stick around- he was not looking to vacation here and so the damage in Navarre was alot less than it could/should have been for a Cat 3. I'm hoping this will be the case again for TX... but professional input would be appreciated.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:40 AM |
|
Re: what to expect....
|
Margie,
This goes back to my post yesterday in why I thought Rita would reach CAT 4 in 48hrs. Everyone has to understand that the GOM is an incapsulated body of water. Katrina left the area 3 weeks ago. It is like a sheet of ice in the summertime, and with no storms to arouse the water or whitecaps, it sits there and ferments. Again, the Surface temps are running well above 86 degrees, and with the fast movement of Rita, it is not upwelling cooler water to affect her weaking process. It is not what everyone wants to hear, but it is a reality, we are witnessing possibly another worst case scenario for another big city.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:44 AM |
|
Re: what to expect....
|
what big city? i don't see a "big" city in its path at this time its not showing that?
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:44 AM |
|
Re: we need skeetobite *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
There are indications and the models are picking this up as well, to stall the system inland. hope this answers your question.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:46 AM |
|
|
|
Re: we need skeetobite *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
There is nothing in the way of Rita to slow her down (at least until she lands) other than her natural progression to start to loop a bit more to the north.
| KATFIVE |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:47 AM |
|
|
Re: what to expect....
|
One thread that got lost back a little while ago seems very germane at this point: the question of size. Everyone agrees Katrina's size had a crucial impact on storm surge, but is hard to find a lucid discussion of what factors influence cyclone size. Why were Andrew and 1935 Labor Day "little" cat 5 storms in contrast to Katrina which was a very "big" cat 4. Rita seems to be trending towards the latter scenario, but I don't know why. Any guidance for the perplexed?
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:47 AM |
|
Re: Lake Ponchartrain and New Orleans
|
We had flooding from Carla in this area (our Midcounty area).
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:47 AM |
|
Re: what to expect....
|
I don't want to predict in this forum, but it has been well stated, the cities of Houston/Galveston. Now I'm not saying that these are the cities in the "Bullseye", but worst case scenario cities as was N.O. That is all I was trying to refer to.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:49 AM |
|
dropsonde
|
A dropsonde into the eyewall a little while ago indicated a pressure of 948 mb, so the actual central pressure is going to be less than that.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:50 AM |
|
Re: what to expect....
|
Carla hit around Matagorda Bay and the whole coast was affected by the storm. It will depend on the size and intensity of
Rita.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:51 AM |
|
|
|
Re: what to expect....
|
Quote:
...the question of size...Any guidance for the perplexed?
Yes the upper-level anti-cyclonic motion allows for a lot of outflow, and this allows the windfield to expand. There are probably other details that I am missing due to lack of knowledge but hopefully one of the board mods can respond.
| pryord1 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:53 AM |
|
Re: we need skeetobite *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
I saw that also, but I was concerned that it would have the potential to stall before then. I don't see that happening either, but, as you know, other factors can change things in a heartbeat. It might not be a bad thing for the midwest- they are parched right now. However, be careful what you wish for! It will probably be flooded for several days because of the stall- I just wanted to find out if there was a possiblity that the Gulf Coast would bear the brunt of it instead of the mainland. Rain is really needed in the mainland areas we are discussing- just not the quantity that the stall might bring. Thanks for your input!
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:53 AM |
|
Re: Track
|
S. E. Texas....flat, flat, flat. That about sums it up. Some areas prone to flooding.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 11:58 AM |
|
Re: dropsonde
|
Another dropsonde just measured 935 mb. Since the mean wind was over 100 knots, the dropsonde was not into the center and the actual central pressure is likely lower than that.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:03 PM |
|
vortex message
|
000
URNT12 KNHC 211600Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/1517Z
B. 24 DEG 11 MIN N
85 DEG 42 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2522 M
D. 65 KT
E. 070 DEG 27 NM
F. 180 DEG 137 KT
G. 075 DEG 09 NM
H. 934 MB
I. 12 C/ 3056 M
J. 22 C/ 3062 M
K. 07 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C25
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA3 WX18A RITA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 137 KT E QUAD 1516Z
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:13 PM |
|
Rita
|
I posted earlier this morning that I thought Rita had more of a spiral shape compared to the big donut that Katrina turned into, but now Rita is starting to take on the symmetric donut shape of a very intense hurricane. Based on the improvement in symmetry the last couple of hours and a fair amount of lightning in the eyewall, it still seems to be intensifying.
| Scrappy |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:18 PM |
|
|
Re: what to expect....
|
So does anyone want to go out on a limb and predict..
Edit - let's not start a prediction service please. We'll let the Mets do the predicting.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:19 PM |
|
|
|
Re: vortex message
|
Yeah I just saw it too.
Well all the numbers say solid Cat 4, not a Cat 5 yet. Sat presentation seems stronger. Well waiting to see what shows in the NW quad.
So far a drop of 54mb in the past 30 hours.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:26 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
The plane recently reported 152 knot winds in the northern eyewall at about 10000 feet and 125 knot winds at the surface.
| pryord1 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:33 PM |
|
Re: what to expect....
|
As you know, size doesn't necessarily matter- and it's moving fast. Scary thing for our country- it doesn't matter where you live.
Edit the prediction game.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:36 PM |
|
|
|
Re: vortex message
|
Quote:
The plane recently reported 152 knot winds in the northern eyewall at about 10000 feet and 125 knot winds at the surface.
Well that is getting very close to Cat 5 - and as all along, the winds in this storm increasing before the central pressure drops. Very interesting. I wonder what the call will be at the intermediate advisory. Guess there'll be a special advisory soon to mention the recon results.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:37 PM |
|
|
Re: what to expect....
|
Air Force up and on the way!
URNT11 KNHC 211631
97779 16244 40295 86800 30500 07021 08062 /3202
40615
RMK AF300 1418A RITA OB 01
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:37 PM |
|
|
|
Re: what to expect....
|
Could be just my eyes or a slight wobble, but speeding up the visible it appears that she hopped just a tad bit N of W ?? And I know, she may do that alot from here on out.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:40 PM |
|
Re: what to expect....
|
That is not a true statement. Size does matter. The size of Katrina was large, and she came with an extensive storm surge. The larger the storm, the largewr the wave action and storm is larger. Remember, the wind field that surrounds the storm is large, so it affects a greater amount of area as well as producing a larger storm surge for a greater area of land.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:41 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
A recent dropsonde into the southern eyewall measured 160 knots at 925 mb, which is not far above the ground since the surface pressure of the drop was 937 mb. The next dropsonde measured a surface pressure 928 mb with 35 knot surface winds, so the actual central pressure is probably a little lower than that. I don't know if there has been a really good central pressure fix yet.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:43 PM |
|
Re: vortex message *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:50 PM |
|
|
|
Re: vortex message
|
have to say this is the best pictures i have seen on sat of a cane ever.... i thought Katrina was amazing... this is up there with her.
She's on the Loop Current now i think... based on what i see.
High Speed Floater (RSO)
Closer up Shot
Rita Close up
| cmiller324 |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:54 PM |
|
Re: we need skeetobite *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
Quote:Quote:
I found one here: http://gom.rigzone.com/rita.asp
thanks nice map.If it stays the way it is that will miss many rigs lets pray it stays south like the track has right now.
Thanks for that post,.
Missing rigs to the south by 40-50 miles is not enough. I work for Pride Offshore and we have 5 rigs in the High Island area and a few in West Cameron. They have all be evacuated. In Katrina, we lost one of our smaller rigs. It isn't looking to good for the 5 we have in that area. 40-50 miles away from the center to the N/E and your talking about major waves in access of 30+ feet.Many of the structures in that area are old and falling apart. Taht rigzone site only shows drilling/workover contractor facilities. There are many more permanant structures in that area that are not on that map. It will not be good for the western Gulf this time around.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:57 PM |
|
|
|
Re: vortex message
|
NOAA3 is going back through the eywall... or may have just done it... see what the next fix or drop gives.
if i am decoding right... the eyewall pressure was 939mb
| Jeffmidtown |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 12:57 PM |
|
|
FYI
|
Just for informational prposes, since Katrina, the Hurricane Hunter planes have been relocated to Dobbins ARB here in Atlanta, but since there was a report from the vortex, it looks like that they were able to fix any gremlins that they may have had.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:05 PM |
|
|
|
Re: vortex message
|
Quote:
The next dropsonde measured a surface pressure 928 mb with 35 knot surface winds, so the actual central pressure is probably a little lower than that. I don't know if there has been a really good central pressure fix yet.
Well that is 6 more mbar since the 10:17am (CDT) reading...in about two hours.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:05 PM |
|
|
|
Re: vortex message
|
all kinds of crazy crap on the board today. just keep in mind that katrina maxed out close in to the coast, and we're probably 60hrs from landfall... so the storm will have plenty of time to go through all sorts of eyewall cycles and probably end up in the 3/4 range. the heat content in the western gulf is high, but not nearly as high as what it's getting right now. now, will the storm have a large cumulative surge and really large wind field? yeah, probably. i will address some of the ideas i've seen floating around that look erroneous, though.
don't think the killing potential of this storm will be anywhere near katrina. people have had a good dose of coverage on that storm and don't want to deal with a similar situation themselves. being stuck in a major disaster zone is no fun, and even if there's someone foolhardy enough to want to experience the storm, probably not too many folks want to deal w/ the aftermath.
official track is right into matagorda bay, which is sort of a 'gap' in real estate and damage value potential. up the coast near houston the potential is a lot higher.. down the coast near corpus it's higher. the stretch between has victoria and some smaller towns, but not more than a couple hundred thousand people that can be affected the worst. my landfall point is closer to houston/galveston, so hope i'm wrong. i'm sure port lavaca and matagorda residents aren't fond of my preference, but it's really better overall if the storm doesn't directly impact houston.
the gfs and euro are slowing the inland progression of the storm now. i'm not sure how that will verify, but it's a multiple-run thing now. all of east texas and the arklatex region would be in for tremendous rainfall were this to occur... it's a worst-case post-landfall scenario.
hearing joe b comment on this possibly being the strongest hurricane to hit tx.. it would have to beat the 1880 indianola storm which was borderline or possibly a cat 5. i don't suspect it will be that strong. closer to carla, possibly a little bit weaker, seems more feasible. i don't think texas coastal waters will support a cat 5, and the storm will probably be weakening when it comes in, unless it's on the upswing of an eyewall cycle.
HF 1705z21september
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:07 PM |
|
|
|
Re: FYI
|
Quote:
Just for informational prposes, since Katrina, the Hurricane Hunter planes have been relocated to Dobbins ARB here in Atlanta, but since there was a report from the vortex, it looks like that they were able to fix any gremlins that they may have had.
Those guys are unsung heros. You couldn't pay me enough to strap into a 20 year old plane and fly through a rotating 150mph wall of water.
| Cash |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:07 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
Thunderbird12, where are you getting the information regarding the 160kt (!) wind at 925mb and the 928mb central pressure?
That wind measurement would translate well into Cat 5 status and make Rita one of the strongest storms ever in the central gulf.
Cash
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:12 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
The report came from one of the dropsondes. Keep in mind that wind speed just above the ground are often much higher than the surface winds and even higher than the normal flight-level winds we see reported. The dropsonde data can be found here, along with info on how to interpret the reports:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml
Unfortunately, they don't archive the reports at that address, so you can only see the last report.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:14 PM |
|
Re: FYI
|
Rita continues on path to the west towards the Tx coast. Making my 3 day forecast its pretty simple one as the models all agree a path from Lake Charles LA- just south of Galveston. Im alittle worried about Galveston. Although there is no relationship in the key west of 38 and the 1900 Gal storm but something tells me that since she went just south of key west she will do the same to Galveston but it will be close and should no matter what get at least huricane force winds. Also I feel LA will be the florida of last year so I wouldnt doubt it going as far east as Lake Charles. Anyways with some model support (even though Im on the right) I will go with this as my forecast landfall, Just south of Gal-Lake Charles.
Anyways nothing really intiment anywhere else. Will keep an eye on the mid-upperlow just NW of Philippe, it might in a couple days want to come down to the surface and head towards the Se Bahamas by the weekend. Anyways just another thought.
scottsvb
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:16 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
So far, the highest winds from the dropsondes at the usual flight levels that I have seen have been 160 knots at 850 mb and 144 knots at 700 mb. Both of those would typically correspond to about 130 kts at the surface. I'm not sure how NHC would reduce the 925 mb report I mentioned earlier.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:19 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
I've also noticed a big difference w/ Katrina...size of the eye. When Katrina finished the first ERC the eye was huge which is systemic of an annular hurricane. This allows a storm to more closely approach its maximum potential (ref Isabel, Ivan, Frances at cat5...all had very large eye diameter) as well as larger time frame for the eye to "contract" and pressure to fall...thus not as many ERCs and slower weakening. Note that Katrina only had 1 ERC in the gulf which resulted in the huge eye and did not go through another one. It will be interesting to see what happens after the first ERC and if we get a larger eye as a result with Rita...IMO I dont see this happening
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:20 PM |
|
Re: FYI
|
Scott,
Is the upper level low what is showing at 25/65:
http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
Do you have any model links on where it is heading?
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:24 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
AF dropsonde into the eye just found a pressure of 922 mb.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:28 PM |
|
|
|
Re: vortex message
|
I hope that that is at like 10000 feet or something
| zmdz01 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:32 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
Psyber,
Regarding the 922 reading, the decoding key at the Hurricane Hunter site shows that the reading was at sea level.
PART ALPHA (A)
Identifier: 99 – Indicator for data at the surface level follows
Identifier: PoPoPo – Indicator for pressure of specified levels in whole millibar (thousands digit omitted)
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:37 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
If the pressure was as high as 922 mb at 10000 feet, then we would have something else to worry about besides a hurricane
Here is the latest recon:
000
URNT12 KNHC 211728
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/17:02:40Z
B. 24 deg 12 min N
085 deg 56 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 142 deg 142 kt
G. 036 deg 013 nm
H. 923 mb
I. 12 C/ 2447 m
J. 26 C/ 2436 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. STADIUM
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / nm
P. AF306 WXWXA 05092114306 OB 02
MAX FL WIND 142 KT NE QUAD 16:58:40 Z
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:41 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
Ed in VA, it will go sw- then west over the next couple days but most likely nothing will happen. Anyways Rita should be about 150mph at 5pm adv at the least maybe higher.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:43 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
2 more MBs and it passes Andrew on the list of most intense
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:47 PM |
|
|
|
Rita hasn't peaked yet...
|
perfect eye wall now. When the deep convection finally becomes completely circular.....in about another 2 hours...she'll be a 5...maybe already is.
she "appears" to be starting to inch northward. does anyone else see that?.....hope I am wrong but I haven't seen wobbles from her....which makes me think she is starting her banana curve....
ewrc's will start soon.
excellent posts everyone...hope Hank Frank is wrong on Galveston area.
edit - removed the NO part - let's not cause needless panic.
| Cane Watcher |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:47 PM |
|
Re: FYI
|
Those guys are unsung heros. You couldn't pay me enough to strap into a 20 year old plane and fly through a rotating 150mph wall of water.
You are absolutely correct about that!!!
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:55 PM |
|
Re: FYI
|
Psyber,
These are state of the art aircraft. These are newer c-130's specifically for these missions.
| zmdz01 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:55 PM |
|
Re: Rita hasn't peaked yet...
|
You can almost feel the tension on the boards...waiting for the 2 PM to be posted.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 01:57 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Rita hasn't peaked yet...
|
Yep, thought I saw the same posted @ 12:37 of the 05:15:45 UTC image. Could have just been a hop, though have not seen her do too much hopping as of yet
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:00 PM |
|
Re: Rita hasn't peaked yet...
|
Unfortunately, there is no 2pm advisory scheduled, since no watches or warnings are currently in place. Hopefully, they will at least throw us a bone and give us an official update before the 5pm advisory.
The weather geeks among us can really appreciate the 26C temperature reading at 700mb found in the eye. That is hard to comprehend if you have spent any time looking at 700mb charts.
| LSUHurricane |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:00 PM |
Re: FYI
|
i believe that the eye has great potential to become larger in size (like katrina), if you look at this loop posted already posted by someone?, it has grown pretty rapidly in about 12-18 hrs. web page
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:00 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
You know the intensity is alot stronger now when RECON is reporting a Stadium effect.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:04 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
Climatology is interesting...no recorded Sep3+ storm at the same location has hit TX directly.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518_climo.html
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:05 PM |
|
Re: Rita hasn't peaked yet...
|
Quote:
Unfortunately, there is no 2pm advisory scheduled, since no watches or warnings are currently in place. Hopefully, they will at least throw us a bone and give us an official update before the 5pm advisory.
There are intermediate advisories three hours after the main advisories. So, at 2pm EDT or 1pm CDT, there will be new coordinates, and I'm sure a decrease in pressure due to the recon report that just came in. The track forecast and discussions only occur every 6 hours...
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:06 PM |
|
|
|
Re: FYI
|
Looks as if she gets any larger she could cover TX
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:06 PM |
|
|
Re: Rita hasn't peaked yet...
|
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
4 PM CDT.
there are not int. adv. unless there are watches or warnings
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:11 PM |
|
|
New Recon
|
153KT Flight level winds
920MB pressure
Ok, Now I'm worried...
heh
-Mark
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:11 PM |
|
New vortex
|
000
URNT12 KNHC 211808
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/17:53:20Z
B. 24 deg 17 min N
086 deg 10 min W
C. 700 mb 2400 m
D. 110 kt
E. 277 deg 005 nm
F. 016 deg 153 kt
G. 287 deg 007 nm
H. 920 mb
I. 9 C/ 3040 m
J. 26 C/ 3050 m
K. 3 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1418A RITA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 153 KT W QUAD 17:51:30 Z
| Hurricane Fredrick 1979 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:15 PM |
|
|
Re: New vortex
|
WTNT63 KNHC 211807
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005
DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS INTENSIFIED
A LITTLE MORE AND WINDS HAVE REACHED 150 MPH WINDS WITH A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 920 MB. THIS MAKES RITA A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE.
FORECASTER AVILA
$$
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:16 PM |
|
|
|
last three frames direction is definitely more northerly *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Lsr1166 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:17 PM |
|
Re: Rita hasn't peaked yet...
|
From the NHC 2:15 Update
000
WTNT63 KNHC 211807
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
215 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005
DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS INTENSIFIED
A LITTLE MORE AND WINDS HAVE REACHED 150 MPH WINDS WITH A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 920 MB. THIS MAKES RITA A STRONG CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:17 PM |
|
Re: New vortex
|
Thats correct next update will be at 5pm unless a special report is issued.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:18 PM |
|
Re: last three frames direction is definitely more northerly
|
Rick,
What are you looking at to say it is turning towards N.O?
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:21 PM |
|
|
|
Re: vortex message
|
Oh boy, most recent recon drops pressure to 920mb, a high15deg temp diff.
Special update just stayed with Cat 4 intensity.
Well for anyone keeping track, that is 68mb in the last 32 hours: 32mb in the first 24 hours, and 36mb in the last 8 hours, or, in other words, an average drop of 4.5mb per hour for the last 8 hours.
BTW, movement is no longer due W but now N of W, doesn't appear to be a wobble, the last few sat images...look at the high. Any extended movement to the N over the next couple hours could keep it in the loop current longer, and also move landfall significantly east.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:21 PM |
|
Re: last three frames direction is definitely more northerly *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:21 PM |
|
|
|
Re: last three frames direction is definitely more northerly
|
No one has said it but Rita just dropped from 944 to 920 in a little under 3 hours. This could go/is heading for sub 900!
Perhaps not the time for levity but do you wonder if the aliens on Jupiter are saying, "Holy crap, look at that mother of a storm on earth!"
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:22 PM |
|
Re: Rita hasn't peaked yet...
|
I stand correct they posted a early update and winds 150mph.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:24 PM |
|
Re: vortex message *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
|
This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Thunder |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:25 PM |
|
|
Re: last three frames direction is definitely more northerly
|
Who says anybody is trying to push anything into a trend?
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:26 PM |
|
|
|
Gilbert
|
was the lowest recorded Atlantic cane...888 mb....
Rita has a ways to go....but definitely possible...
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:27 PM |
|
Re: last three frames direction is definitely more northerly *DELETED*
|
Post deleted by ralphfl
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:29 PM |
|
|
|
Re: vortex message
|
If one of the Mets could comment, does it appear over the last 3 hours that the High has in fact deteriorated? It look to be taking on a more oblong shape
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:31 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
Not sure, but I think they are waiting for a really good fix before either sending out a special advisory package or just waiting for the 2pm package anyway. Flight-level winds are up there; I've seen obs of both 150kt and 152kt -- and as you noted, the pressure is down there with 928mb reported but with 35kt surface winds (120deg winds = NNE of the center). I'd estimate surface pressure at 925mb with surface winds likely to ramp up shortly in conjunction with the increasing flight-level winds. Height of the 700mb surface is at 2488m -- pretty low and abour 45m lower than the vortex message reported. Unfortunately, we may have yet another cat. 5 storm on our hands in the Gulf -- still not nearly as strong as Katrina, but very powerful nonetheless.
Added: typed this awhile ago before sending...920mb, probably 1-2mb lower than that given ~20-25kt at the surface, with 153kt FL. On the way to cat. 5.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:31 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
Well, Margie see's too. Could this wobble or movement to the North be indicative of the High moving East or weakening sooner than forecasted.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:34 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
What has been the longest track that you know of, a particular hurricane to remain at CAT 5?
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:39 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
To me it looks like it just bumped up a little bit to the north a couple frames ago, and that the movement is still west. I'd definitely call it a jog...
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:39 PM |
|
SHIPS
|
Latest SHIPS output brings the storm to 142 knots in 24 hours, then drops it down to 131 knots by 60 hours and 109 knots (68 kts in DSHIPS) by 72 hours, with landfall occurring somewhere in between. I'm not sure how relevant the model output is anymore, though... unpredictable processes like ERCs are going to have as much effect on the intensity from here on out as the environmental conditions, though the latter will modulate how much the storm will be able to recover if it goes into a weakening phase.
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:39 PM |
|
|
|
Re: vortex message
|
Hey there's nothing saying that this can't go Cat5, do an ERC then go back to a Cat5 right before landing...
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:41 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
Could it be possible that the jog is an indication that Rita is cutting through the High and weakening it.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:43 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
Can anyone on here explain to me what causes the storm to go through an EWR cycle?
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:46 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
Quote:
Can anyone on here explain to me what causes the storm to go through an EWR cycle?
The reasoning for that is not well understood.
See here for info:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/D8.html
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:49 PM |
|
|
|
4 frames now
|
movement wnw-nw.....definite over last 2 hours ....
i'm a novice...but it sure looks like it's a direction, and NOT a wobble...which changes everything....
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:51 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
Are they pretty sure of the track? I know the high will move some but could it slide even further east? People here are not
evacuating (except Sabine Pass...storm surge potential). But everyone is paying attention...just incase. Does look like on
the current track forecast we will have rain and wind.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:53 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
Right now, there is pretty high confidence in the forecast track. But, keep an eye on it nonetheless.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:53 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
Quote:
movement wnw-nw.....definite over last 2 hours ....
i'm a novice...but it sure looks like it's a direction, and NOT a wobble...which changes everything....
A degree north with a jog IS NOT NW let alone wnw.I guess we are going to go though this until the 5pm comes out and states otherwise.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 02:58 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
There is some dry mid-level air oozing into the northern Gulf ahead of Rita... that may play a role in initiating a weakening trend if it does not get shoved out of the way.
| amonty |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:00 PM |
|
|
Re: vortex message
|
I don't think it will because all of the other 'cane's i've watched this year have all just plowed through the dry air. I think it may just impede development a little bit. IMO
| cmiller324 |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:10 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
To me(I'm a major rookie at this) it looks like she is starting to stairstep. But that is just my 2 cents worth. I just hope the steps don't get too big. SE Louisiana doesn't need another. For that matter no one needs another.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:11 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
Clark,
Why is lightning such a phenomenoum in hurricanes when it is built around and surrounded by thunderstorms?
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:14 PM |
|
|
|
Rita may be Jogging, but it's heading west
|
As of 5am, the storm was at 24.3N
As of the last recon, the storm was at 24.3 North
There might be some wobbing going on, but the storm has been heading pretty close to true due west.
The storm may turn, the storm may not, maybe even the storm will fizzle out (though I'm thinking no)
-Mark
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:18 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
Here are the longest lived Cat 5s for the Atlantic since the start of the reconnaissance era (1944). These times are based on the six hourly advisories issued by NHC or JTWC.
Atlantic
ALLEN (1980) 3.00 days
DOG (1950) 2.50 days
ISABEL (2003) 1.75 days
DAVID (1979) 1.75 days
MITCH (1998) 1.75 days
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:18 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
Might be just a wobble northward. Nothing to write home about yet. It may respond just slightly to a slight weakness in the ridge over Arkansas, but that is largely accounted for in the track. There is no reason to believe that the forecast track is in error at this point in time, particularly given how well the observed motion and forecast motion match.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:20 PM |
|
|
Re: vortex message
|
Is the dry air part of the ridge that's eroding? If so, it would have no effect (right?).
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:21 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
Lightning isn't a big phenomenon seen with tropical cyclones because the conditions conducive to its development generally are not found within tropical convection. It's not my expertise, but simply put -- that's the reason.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:24 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
Would this be a rare event if Rita reaches Cat 5 after another storm that reached Cat 5 (Katrina) was in the Gulf?
Has this ever happened before, one really strong storm following another into the Gulf within a few weeks of each other?
| KATFIVE |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:26 PM |
|
|
|
Re: vortex message
|
Speaking of cat 5, I looked at the latest recon and it would seem that if one adjusts the flight level wind you would get a 156+ figure for surface winds.. The temp differential is larger than Kat's when it peaked, I believe. So I would guess this thing is cat 5 as we speak. As for maintaining that strength--history is against is making landfall with that sort of intensity, but there are UNUSUAL conditions this year so all bets are off. btw a question: has there every been such a short gap between storms that have reached cat 5?
| StormKrone |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:28 PM |
|
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
Quote:
Would this be a rare event if Rita reaches Cat 5 after another storm that reached Cat 5 (Katrina) was in the Gulf?
Watching FOX and the guy from Accuweather.com is saying that Rita is a CAT 5 already...
their site says: "AccuWeather.com Meteorologists believe Rita has become a Cat 5 hurricane. "
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:28 PM |
|
|
Re: vortex message
|
Hi!
I am a new user and I have been looking for a site like this since last year.. I am so happy to find it. I live in St. Petersburg, FL .
I was wondering if someone could post a link to a site that would allow you to see the acctual ridge of high pressure ( if there is such a site), I also see the wobble and just wanted to see this high pressure area. I look at accuweather and noaa, but accuweather is not always updated with their sattelite photos. Thanks everyone!
Sincerely, Christine
| Convergence |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:30 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
Not to mention Dennis and Emily, which were both borderline 5's at one point or another. This season has pretty much destroyed the idea that the 2004 season was about the worst it could be.
Don't take this the wrong way, but this year has been incredibly exciting in terms of meteorology.
| bobbutts |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:30 PM |
|
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
Who knows if it will persist but when I look at the loops they really remind me of how Charley made a right hand turn. Maybe effects of coriolis force or upper level winds on the storm since she is so intense?
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:31 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
Cat 5s are rare, so, A rare even followed by a rare event.... is .... even more rare. (Very Rare on the Encounter table) However we only have a fairly short timeframe, climatologicly speaking, to work with.
There could have been more Cat 5 storms before the 1960's and unless a ship or hurricane was unlucky enough to be in the way of it, we wouldn't know.
I don't think there's been 2 cat 5's in the atlantic basin within a month of each other in the last 40 years or so. But I'm sure the pacific basin has them happen from time to time (wow that was a convoluted sentence...).
Also, since 95, we've been in an active period in the atlantic. So, who knows, maybe we'll be unlucky enough to have this become a more common event for the next 20 years or so.
-Mark
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:33 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
But the sad part is, that there is still over 2 months to go to this season. Greek letters soon to follow.
| JYarsh |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:35 PM |
|
Re: Rita Now a Category 4, in the Gulf
|
has anyone else noticed a northward jog in the last few hours? I would just say just a jog but its been going on for quite some time now...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:37 PM |
|
|
|
News Around Houston
|
Here's some interesting stories that are developing in and around Houston....
-- Mandatory evacuation in effect not only for coastal residents, but also for those in flood-prone areas of Houston -- around the bayous, etc.
-- Evacuees leaving Galveston and traveling north toward Dallas are being told to expect at least a 12 hour commute just to get out of the northern Houston suburbs!
-- The "One Country Hurricane Katrina Benefit Concert" has been cancelled.
-- Officials in Matagorda County have told residents with children who refuse to obey the mandatory evacuation order that Children's Protective Services will take their children and the parents will be prosecuted....
-- Johnson Space Center closed today at 1PM... local refineries also shutting down.
-- Katrina evacuees from the Astrodome and Reliant Stadium are being flown to Fort Chaffee, Arkansa, and other locations.
Local news outlets:
CBS -- www.khou.com (Dr. Neil Frank's station)
NBC -- www.kprc.com
ABC -- www.ktrk.com
Also:
houstontranstar.org -- click on "Real Time Traffic Map" then "Camera List" and you can see live shots from all over the city, including the Galveston Island Causeway, etc.
I'm hearing a wide variety of responses to the storm... relatives near the coast have already evacuated (thank goodness)...
relatives near the bayous are also leaving...
my parents in far west Houston are staying, even though they are about 30 miles from where the center is expected to pass...
as far as other friends in areas well-inland -- all but a few are staying (the most amusing explanation I heard from an evacuating friend is that, the power might go out, and she "doesn't like to sweat...")
Allison
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:41 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
not sure, but looks like there are two AF planes out there... AF300... and AF306.... but have awhile til they have to depart.... and NOAA9 and NOAA3 are still up.... so tonights models runs should have much stock in them.....i also think i saw where there is a Navy Plane up.... helping to feed real time data from the planes back to NHC/HRD/NOAA....
**ALSO I THINK I JUST SAW A 908MB READING**** NOT SURE BUT WILL CHECK
| cmiller324 |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:41 PM |
|
Re: vortex message
|
Quote:
Hi!
I am a new user and I have been looking for a site like this since last year.. I am so happy to find it. I live in St. Petersburg, FL .
I was wondering if someone could post a link to a site that would allow you to see the acctual ridge of high pressure ( if there is such a site), I also see the wobble and just wanted to see this high pressure area. I look at accuweather and noaa, but accuweather is not always updated with their sattelite photos. Thanks everyone!
Sincerely, Christine
You can use this link Clicky .
The bright orange is dry air or high pressure. Greens are moisture. If I am wrong would someone please clarify.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:43 PM |
|
Re: News Around Houston
|
"Officials in Matagorda County have told residents with children who refuse to obey the mandatory evacuation order that Children's Protective Services will take their children and the parents will be prosecuted...."
God Bless Texas! I love that state!
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:47 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
also based on the sats.... i noticed it looks like the center.... low level is cloud free....the stadium should amazing if your flying through right now.... so i would expect to see some pictures in the coming days atleast from HRD..... i have a feeling that an ERC in going to start within the next 12hrs or so....
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/285.jpg
Cloud free surface in Center? (it could just be the sun glare too!)
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:49 PM |
|
Re: Rita Now a Category 4, in the Gulf
|
If you look at that SAT, and plot the forecast track, I can see a definate swing to the right in the last couple of frames. Clark, how about it. What would you say, trend or wobble, considering that Rita maybe breaking through the ridge to the East.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:49 PM |
|
|
|
5TH FRAME IN A ROW...
|
FOR 2 1/2 HOURS...ever since she cleaned up the eyewall, a definite wnw direction.....I don't think this is a wobble....
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:51 PM |
|
|
|
Re: vortex message
|
I am not an expert but this is the site I use, I use the 700-850 layer, you can adjust in 3 hour increments and there are even more options on the home page.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.html
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:54 PM |
|
dropsonde data
|
A recent dropsonde in the NW eyewall reported 149 knot winds at the surface and a mean boundary layer wind of 165 knots. The next dropsonde in the eye reported a pressure of 908 mb with surface winds of 28 knots, indicating the actual central pressure may be slightly lower.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:55 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
I definitley agree on ERC beginning soon. When you get "stadium" effect and the eye tightens it seems the the "top" of the stadium becomes the edge of the outer eyewall that forms. It seems as the slant on the stadium effect becomes more pronounced the closer you come to ERC. Once again...I could be wrong...just an observation as not much is know about ERC triggers.
Also...definite WNW movement and it doesn't seem like a wobble. The motion seems rather clean and not jerky like a wobble.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
Click on the "lat/lon" box on top of the loop...makes it easy to see
| Psyber |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:56 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 5TH FRAME IN A ROW...
|
It's not a wobble, you can see it clearly starting to curve north...
Here's another link:
Water Vapour Link Showing N-N-W Curve.
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:57 PM |
|
|
|
Re: vortex message
|
WOW! Thanks..
Thats just what I was looking for!
Does it look like the ridge is weakening or maybe has not shifted to the East as expected. I myself am NO expert, but very interested in learning!
Thanks everyone!
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 03:58 PM |
|
Re: dropsonde data
|
If this isn't a cat 5 storm by now, it has to be the deepest category 4 storm in history.
A WNW movement was anticipated and the current movement is only slightly more northerly than the official track suggests, so nobody needs to panic any time soon.
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:01 PM |
|
|
|
Re: News Around Houston
|
Quote:
"Officials in Matagorda County have told residents with children who refuse to obey the mandatory evacuation order that Children's Protective Services will take their children and the parents will be prosecuted...."
God Bless Texas! I love that state!
This is actually the first real test of Texas' new mandatory evacuation law -- we didn't have one until a few months ago.... before that, officials could legally only "recommend" evacuations...
The practical effect isn't much different, I'm afraid -- it's unlikely they're going to force people out -- but the language itself should provide the necessary encouragement....
Allison
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:02 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Rita Now a Category 4, in the Gulf
|
So I guess what Rick and I saw @ 12:30 today was not a wobble/jog but apparently a trend since it is now 4:00. Would still like to know what a Met/Prof think of the Ridge right now
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:02 PM |
|
Cat 5
|
Watching Fox...just said they heard from NHC...she's a 5 now...165.
| Lsr1166 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:03 PM |
|
Re: dropsonde data
|
000
WTNT63 KNHC 211955
TCUAT3
HURRICANE RITA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
255 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005
DATA FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT RITA HAS REACHED
CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY WITH ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS OF 165 MPH. THIS WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE 4 PM CDT ADVISORY.
FORECASTER AVILA
| StormKrone |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:04 PM |
|
|
|
Re: dropsonde data
|
Quote:
A recent dropsonde in the NW eyewall reported 149 knot winds at the surface and a mean boundary layer wind of 165 knots.
This is what I am hearing also... 165 mph...
what a dame!! or _itch!!! <g> (sorry mods)
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:08 PM |
|
|
|
Re: dropsonde data
|
Surface winds 165, Cat 5, just heard from Met in Tampa, believe currently is stronger than Katrina
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:08 PM |
|
|
|
North motion
|
There is a north componant, and I usually view wobbles as changes up to 3 hours. if it keeps up much longer though... I'm not sure why recon fixed things at 24.3N ... unless it'd moved a little south of due west at some point and is coming back north.... but either way, a north motion is bad bad bad
Han Solo said it best, "I gotta bad feeling about this"
| bn765 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:11 PM |
|
Re: dropsonde data
|
Never.......and i mean never would i have ever of thought something that would be stronger than Katrina...especially in less than 3 weeks. This thing is strengthning and it will probably will be stronger than Katrina.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:12 PM |
|
Re: North motion
|
The inland flooding is going to be horrific. Here's the afternoon HPC, with Rita still over OK in 7 days.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day7nav_color.html
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:15 PM |
|
Re: North motion
|
if you look it jogged south then back north so net gain is about west.And yes you got to give it more time before you call it a nwnw movement.WHICH btw it is suppose to do in order to get as far north as the NHC track is.
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:15 PM |
|
Re: North motion
|
Taz & Bloodstar...have been tracking that myself this afternoon...too much to just be a wobble...be interesting to see what's going on in another hour or so.
Others have jumped on this bandwagon...as well on some other boards...definitly not a popular opinion to voice.
My question is why not? I know...the high blah, blah, blah...but hasn't climitalogy been thrown out the window this year? Haven't these storms thrown us plenty of curveballs? Why is this one so different? Not bashing NHC or any mets...very legit question as to why we shouldn't expect any surprises from this monster.
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:16 PM |
|
Re: North motion
|
A Good way to get a handle on how the storm is moving as compared with the offical forecast track is to goto www.nhc.noaa.gov then click on satellite imagery, GOES 1 Infared loop. There are several options at the top, check trop forecast points and it will show them over top of the satellite and you can compare Rita's motion with the offical forecast.
Hurricane Charley '04(Port Charlotte)
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:17 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
Both windfield and intensity continue to increase: on sat images, windfield continues to expand since noon, and NHC officially updates intensity to Cat 5 with 165mph max sust surface winds.
Just for a reference point - Rita is not currently stronger than Katrina was. Katrina's highest sust winds were 175mph and lowest pressure, 902mb. Also at that time Katrina was over six times larger in area than Rita, which in terms of overall energy was tremendous, although comparisons are more commonly in terms of pressure or windspeed.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:19 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
Latest spaghetti model shows a little more spread in the track, but most are still focused on the mid-Tx coast.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
| FlaRebel |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:20 PM |
|
Re: North motion
|
Quote:
A Good way to get a handle on how the storm is moving as compared with the offical forecast track is to goto www.nhc.noaa.gov then click on satellite imagery, GOES 1 Infared loop. There are several options at the top, check trop forecast points and it will show them over top of the satellite and you can compare Rita's motion with the offical forecast.
Hurricane Charley '04(Port Charlotte)
To make the next projected plot she will have to move DUE west. I don't think that will happen. I hate to see another storm of this magnitude so soon after Katrina. I won't be surprised to see all models trend a tad more to the right in the next runs.
| KATFIVE |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:21 PM |
|
|
|
Re: North motion
|
I don't see why anyone would dismiss a possible northward jog out of hand. As you say, records are falling this year and there have been many times on this board and others in which I have seen meterologists and very very knowledgeable storm trackers get it wrong, especially concerning intensity. There is a lot we still don't know so keep watching that track and keep us informed!
| R2RICKSTER |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:29 PM |
|
Katrina and Rita
|
Twins
Katrina- 26.2 88.1 175mph 907mb
noaa
Rita 24.7 86.2 150mph 920mb
noaa
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:32 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
Eyewall replacement cycle is still some time away. Updated microwave imagery suggest that the makings of an outer eyewall are about 50-60% complete with no inward movement noted. The outer eyewall has to form before it starts moving inward, then it takes some time before the cycle actually completes with the new eyewall. The storm can still intensify and/or maintain itself up to the point where the inner eyewall begins to collapse -- technically about 75% through the cycle but the starting point of what we normally consider the eyewall replacement. I think there are about another 12hr, 18hr max before we get to that point. There's a chance the storm gets below 900mb.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:32 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Katrina and Rita
|
URNT12 KNHC 212027
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 21/19:36:50Z
B. 24 deg 21 min N
086 deg 21 min W
C. 700 mb 2360 m
D. 125 kt
E. 053 deg 009 nm
F. 134 deg 161 kt
G. 048 deg 016 nm
H. EXTRAP 914 mb
I. 8 C/ 3063 m
J. 27 C/ 3042 m
K. 2 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF300 1418A RITA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 161 KT NE QUAD 19:32:00 Z
SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700 MB
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:34 PM |
|
Re: dropsonde data
|
Keep in mind that the timestamp on that vortex message is before the dropsonde that indicated a pressure of 908 mb:
| KATFIVE |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:35 PM |
|
|
|
Re: North motion
|
Cnn says it is looking at the possibility of a shift a bit north. Pressure is down to 906mb
| KATFIVE |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:39 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
What is your source on Katrina being 6 times the size of Rita. The latter looks pretty darn big. I can believe K was larger, but 6 times larger?
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:43 PM |
|
|
|
Re: North motion
|
Impressive Floater pic http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:43 PM |
|
|
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
Quote:
What is your source on Katrina being 6 times the size of Rita. The latter looks pretty darn big. I can believe K was larger, but 6 times larger?
There are several ways. You can review the satellite images and calculate the distance from the lat/lon. You can also review NHC archives which do give the distances for the hurricane-force windfield and tropical-storm force windfield from the center, in various directions, and calculate the area from that.
Katrina was an unusually large storm.
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:49 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
If there was no 2pm EDT advisory, why does weather underground have 2pm coordinates, windspeed, and pressure? And, if they were measured, why aren't they updated here?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200518.html
| gailwarning |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:51 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
A couple questions...
1. I read on this site awhile back that the larger the storms get, the more they tend to spin themselves north. Is that in play here?
2. Is there any theoretical or actual limit to how strong hurricanes can get?
| bobbutts |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:52 PM |
| Attachment |
|
|
|
Re: North motion
|
I photoshop'd a few satellite images over each other and connected the dots (attached). This is likely to be at least somewhat inaccurate, but I came up with a 300 degree heading.
The images are from 12:15 to 19:45 UTC
Worth noting that if it is heading 300deg it would still be in the very northern edge of the NHC cone.
| gogogabby007 |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:53 PM |
|
Re: 5TH FRAME IN A ROW...
|
According to that link, Rita looks big enough to cover a good portion of SE and NE TX and LA. Is this realistic (meaning the relative size to US and Rita is accurate) or is it just my perception? Thanks.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:53 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
for the NW people 5pm bam Hurricane center located near 24.4n 86.8w at 21/2100z
position accurate within 15 nm
present movement toward the west or 275 degrees at 11 kt
...Rita reaches 165 mph winds...becomes an extremely dangerous
category five hurricane...the second of the 2005 season...
at 4 PM CDT...2100z...a Hurricane Watch has been issued for Gulf of
Mexico coast from Port Mansfield Texas to Cameron Louisiana.
At 4 PM CDT...2100z...a tropical storm watch has been issued for
east of Cameron to Grand Isle Louisiana and from south of Port
Mansfield to Brownsville.
At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the government of Mexico has issued a tropical
storm watch for the northeast coast of Mexico from Rio San Fernando
northward.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours. A tropical storm
watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area...generally within 36 hours.
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:54 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
Quote:Quote:
What is your source on Katrina being 6 times the size of Rita. The latter looks pretty darn big. I can believe K was larger, but 6 times larger?
There are several ways. You can review the satellite images and calculate the distance from the lat/lon. You can also review NHC archives which do give the distances for the hurricane-force windfield and tropical-storm force windfield from the center, in various directions, and calculate the area from that.
Katrina was an unusually large storm.
According to the NHC archives, Katrina had TS force winds up to 230 miles from the center, Rita has them 140 miles from the center. According to my math, that makes Katrina not even 2x the size. No question she was larger, but nowhere near 6 times.
BTW, new thread.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:56 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
5:00 is out...you have to scroll down to see it:
http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html#AL18
| Terra |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 04:59 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
I'm only saying this because I learned it with Katrina and not everyone may remember it.... the motion that the NHC gives is a 6-hour average. So, in the past 6 hours, the storm moved 0.1N, 0.9W, which is essentially due west. This type of binning of data averages out small wobbles and focuses more on true, long-term motion.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 05:00 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
or look at few posts above.Wierd no mention AL ALL about a NW N shift.From 24.3 to 24.4 the whole day seems kinda west to me.
| bn765 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 05:07 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
Ive seen that people are gettin reports of the pressure down to 906mb?? This means it would be lower than Katrina was when she was 175. any thoughts?
| tenavilla |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 05:08 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
While it's true that 6 hour averages give overall, long-term motion, the bad thing is that if a turn begins shortly before the new advisory comes out, the average motion can be deceiving. For instance, the motion for the first 5 hours may be due west, but if in the last hour a turn begins, it won't necessarily be reflected accurately in the average. Charley taught us that lesson down here. I seem to remember that when he made landfall, the motion for the last official advisory was obviously wrong.
| Lilcaeser |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 05:17 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
Quote:Quote:Quote:
What is your source on Katrina being 6 times the size of Rita. The latter looks pretty darn big. I can believe K was larger, but 6 times larger?
There are several ways. You can review the satellite images and calculate the distance from the lat/lon. You can also review NHC archives which do give the distances for the hurricane-force windfield and tropical-storm force windfield from the center, in various directions, and calculate the area from that.
Katrina was an unusually large storm.
According to the NHC archives, Katrina had TS force winds up to 230 miles from the center, Rita has them 140 miles from the center. According to my math, that makes Katrina not even 2x the size. No question she was larger, but nowhere near 6 times.
BTW, new thread.
NHC is saying now TS winds extend 175 miles. Just to clarify.
| Lilcaeser |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 05:22 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
I'm counting 5 frames now. Correct me if I'm wrong.
| Rick on boat in Mobile |
| (Weather Drama Guru) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 05:27 PM |
|
|
|
back west
|
but still a tad north of the official track. the thing about that is that any deviation this far from land makes landfall change hundreds of miles.
looks like a Houston/Galveston thing.....maybe east of that. remember the envelope the NHC uses. It should not suprise us that the hurricane is deviating from the projected path a little. but if it keeps trending like this...it could go into Louisiana...I am not wishcasting...just observing.
| Takingforever |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 05:50 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
Quote:
2. Is there any theoretical or actual limit to how strong hurricanes can get?
I read in Wired Magazine that the limit is 214 MPH I believe. That's the limit the atmosphere can take before it rips itself apart. lol
So, this is the Season from Hell II: Ultimate Destruction. Makes last year look like it was jsut the rehearsal....
Ok, they are breaking heat records in Texas..what effect, if any will that have on Rita?
| pryord1 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 21 2005 07:00 PM |
|
Re: 4 frames now
|
Still seems like it's moving more NW now- even after 2 hours' worth of frames. Isn't it a little early for this turn?