(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 06:38 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Latest recon still at 913 mb (actually might be slightly lower, since 700mb height dropped and surface winds in the dropsonde were 15 knots). Also, the outer eyewall has shrunk to 35 miles in diameter, at least according to the report.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 06:38 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I just saw this in the news:

Carefully monitoring the storm's progress, Louisiana Governor Kathleen Blanco urged evacuations for everyone in the coastal parishes of southwest Louisiana on Thursday.

"Rita took a turn to the east last night and southwest Louisiana is now in danger," she said in a warning to the area's population of up to half a million people.

Did I miss something last night? I'm trying to remember when Rita turned east...

Scrappy

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 06:40 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Thank god (Mike) a new thread was started. Hopefuly this thread will not turn into a flame fest like the others with this hurricane as topic.

How can the NHC be so consercative in it's track predictions when 50% of this board was on target with a more eastern landfall than originally predicted DAYS ago?

I have read this board for a long time and have found the information posted on this board is sometimes 24 hours ahead of the NHC predictions.

I have a radical theory as to the reasons, politics.

This board has no political ties to government, we see the facts as they are and arent afraid to make a prediction. This position makes a profound difference in delivery of the facts as they are presented translating into absolute speed. This is how the NHC shoul be, unteathered by politics, more lives would invariably be saved as delivery of information would increase.

Any thoughts?

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 06:46 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I just posted a private message to Hugo on that exact topic. I've seen some pretty vague news releases for about the last 24-36 hours from NHC. It's like a tarot card reader...they say things like "i see money in your immediate future"...when payday is on Thursday. To say "some weakening is expected" with less than 36 hours left before landfall...if i'm hedging on possibly getting the hell out of dodge and someone says "some weakening is expected", I might just stay.

To say, "some weakening is expected" when Rita is passing over what looks like a pretty significant potentially hurricane strengthening eddy is somewhat irresponsible in my opinion.

HURRICANELONNY

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 22 2005 06:46 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I was listening to the local met(bryan norcross). He said there is a possibilty that the short wave that was deeper then forecast could pass and the high bring it back west . Not for long because the High will push east. He was saying Rita could do a little S track before it hits Texas/ Louisiana.

Cash

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 06:52 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Scrappy:

The reason the NHC is so conservative is that they have more serious obligations in their authoritative role. They can't afford to be inconsistent from hour to hour. Predictions on this board over the past two days have ranged from the mid-TX coast to the eastern half of LA. The NHC has to go with the data with which they are presented and be as scientific in their prognosis as possible. They can't afford to stare at IR loops and envision sharp right turns when the science doesn't bare it out.

And there is still a good chance that their track as it stands will bear out well. Unless the data generating the forecasts change radically, they owe it to the millions of people relying on the information to be conservative and not to overly alarm or relieve large area based on wobbles and eyeballing.

Michael Cash
(formerly of Lakeview)

errorcone

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 06:54 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

How can the NHC be so consercative in it's track predictions when 50% of this board was on target with a more eastern landfall than originally predicted DAYS ago?

Well, to be honest they aren't far off. It's about 40 miles further east right now then where predicted at the 11pm forecast last night. Less then 100 miles if you go back 24 before then to the 11pm Tuesday.

And the projected landfall is still well within the errorcone from the last several days.

This hasn't been a very easy storm to predict and they aren't doing bad.

Also, you need to know something about the predicted tracks. They will not and do not jump them long distances. They ease them out there. You could have everyone in NHC in agreement that the hurricane will land near NOLA, but if the previous track had it landing near Houston, they will not put the projected path under NOLA. Instead they'll slowly walk it towards NOLA eventually getting there in a few forecasts.
They often even tell you this flat out in their discussions. And knowing how they use the computer models to aide in their forecasts you can usually predict the direction they'll walk it to and even where it will end up if the models agree well.

They do this because these things are not easily predictable. And they don't want landfall jumping all over the map. Could you imagine NOLA at 11AM, Houston at 5pm, Mexico border at 5am and back to NOLA at 11AM? Not that any storm I can think of would have been like that, but that is worse case scenario if they don't slowly walk the landfall predictions. Of course the speed at which they walk them is directly related to time till landfall.

But either way, it isn't politics. It's not overrating to current data and throwing out everything that was previously predicted leading to large jumps back and forth in landfall projections.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 06:54 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I also would not be surprised by an S-shaped track. Before the high can slide east and push Rita more to the north, it first has to build north of the system, which would temporarily block more of a northward movement. Where it ends up is still anyone's guess, but the prospect of some subtle changes in direction before landfall increases the possible error. Nobody should be congratulating themselves on predicting a more northward track until we see where landfall occurs.

The statements from NHC earlier that "some weakening is expected in the next 24 hours" were accurate. The latest advisory indicates that some "fluctuations" are possible in the next 24 hours, so they are not indicating either weakening or strengthening, which is wise considering the unpredictable effects of an ERC.

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Sep 22 2005 06:56 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Looking at the steering currents over the last few runs (6 hours or so) it looks like the high north of Rita is slowly receeding northward which is what's allowing Rita to move further to the east than was predicted last night.

Currents - http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

The wind field on this beast is enormous! http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/center/Tropical/wtnt02.gif

wxman007

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 06:58 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

How can the NHC be so consercative in it's track predictions when 50% of this board was on target with a more eastern landfall than originally predicted DAYS ago?

I have read this board for a long time and have found the information posted on this board is sometimes 24 hours ahead of the NHC predictions.

I have a radical theory as to the reasons, politics.

This board has no political ties to government, we see the facts as they are and arent afraid to make a prediction. This position makes a profound difference in delivery of the facts as they are presented translating into absolute speed. This is how the NHC shoul be, unteathered by politics, more lives would invariably be saved as delivery of information would increase.

Any thoughts?

Yup...quite a few.

It is really easy to second-guess NHC. I have done it on the air a number of times, and on this board at times as well. But one little thing you have to remember is they are the ones responsible for issuing the warnings and watches. A hurricane watch (not warning) costs local government approx 1 million dollars for every mile of coastline in the watch. This is a huge responsibility that they have, and knowing the guys down there, they take it very seriously.

That said, the forecast method they use is actually the real issue here. Consensus model forecasting will generally give you better overall results over an entire season, but on a storm-by-storm basis it can lead to errors. In addition, you will never see NHC make huge track changes at 72 hrs out, and rarely at 48...the will make gradual shifts in the track as the certainty increases (as they have done with this storm). Right or wrong, that is the most prduent method in my opinion.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 22 2005 06:58 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

I just posted a private message to Hugo on that exact topic.

Uh, my name is NOT "Hugo"

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 22 2005 06:58 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Rita's tropical force windfield has expanded since this morning. However hurricane-force winds for now do not extend very far from the eye.

Waves and wind peaked around 4:30pm on buoy 42001, fairly near to the eye. Waves reached almost 40 feet.

Outflow to the south appears to be limited now, and while I am not certain, it appears to be due to wind shear. The upper level air divergence is no longer right over Rita but to her NE.

It appears Rita will go over the warm loop current eddy (the one to the west of the deep eddy that Katrina passed over) while completing the ERC, tonight. She has already reorganized with a solid core and increased convection during the day, and has managed to keep a very low pressure during the ERC, and impressive temp diff, instead of going up to 935mb or thereabouts, so I would expect additional strengthening the next 12 hours along with the reorganization. From the sat wv images, it appears that dry air did work its way around the edge during the day today but did not get into a farily large central core area.

It appears the edge of that high in TX moved NE over into ARK today, and just over the OK border now into KS. It seems like Rita is pushing that other high that was over AL and GA north and east into the Carolinas. It seems to me that unless the H over TX moves further east at a faster rate, and not as far north, Rita is going to track up along the east of it, more east of the existing TX/LA landfall, to somwhere between Lake Charles and Baton Rouge.

It seems lke that high is pivoting around a point near Dallas Ft Worth area. It if does that, and rolls into upper LA, upper MS, and the western edge of TN, I can see the storm sliding along the bottom of it, to just NE of a Galveston/Houston landfall.

This was confusing to me as neither of these points to the TX/LA landfall currently forecast. The way I have resolved this is I believe this track forecast is based on the high moving rather quickly over to the MS/TN valley, causing Rita's track to flatten out to the west before moving NW then NNW.

Rita has slowed down, so I believe that the key to the track will be the speed of the high, moving east, vs Rita's speed, and how far north the high goes as it moves east.

To understand that I guess you'd have to look further to the western and midwestern US, which I don't know how to do yet.

Sorry if this was already stated...I haven't had a chance to catch up and read the board yet.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 07:11 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Agreed... I have a friend in broadcast meteorology and he and I were discussing this very issue, that TPC needs to be given more latitude that the "normal" tone of bureaucracy and red tape that other agencies of the governement so enjoy...

That doesn't mean they should run out and hire a bunch of maverick dooms-day sayers, either; it's just that often times enough the intuitive approach to forecasting, particularly when so much is at stake, is the most prudent course.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 07:14 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Margie:
Your reasoning is sound enough... Essentially, the hurricane will take the path of least resistence. Unfortunately, one can not make a snap shot of the atmosphere and assume that 10 minutes (even) from now those parameters will persist. Not to insult you, but the dynamic of the synoptics precludes that as good wisdom.

Enter, the models...

Unfotunately, and it was stated earlier today, the large scale synoptic picture between the Atlantic SW Basin extending up into central and eastern NA has, for general appeal, changed little since Katrina. We note that with Katrina, the models were persistently left of the ultimate landfall location. The defining difference in the overall synoptics between the two events is the in Rita's case, it does seem that she's rattling around between higher heights - so it is a question of amplification over placement of blocking features.

For what it is worth...that's told me all along that the differences are a wash and Rita may just cause the models to have similar biases. Whether right for the right reasons or right for the wrong reason, I think we can admit at this point that the models have also been displaying somewhat of a left bias; particularly evident when compared to the progs from 2 days ago. This in mind, it would surprise me that her north component will accelerate in time, tonight. We'll see.

BTfromAZ

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 07:15 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Those interested in potential economic impacts of the storm (and the practical question of "Will I be able to get gas?"), may find this map interesting (I sure did):

Yes, the track is a bit out of date but the value of the map is so you can recalculate the potential economic damage as the track shifts.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 07:20 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Wow - that is a great map! I had no idea the drilling practices were so pervasive - but I suppose it stands to reason (won't get into that in this forum).

How to: How did you paste this image into the body of your entry...? I tried using ALT- PRINT SCRN, which is the standard hot-keys, and it didn't work earlier..

pcola

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 07:30 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Actually, in looking at the map, the potential threat line on the north of the old track is close to the new track. It shows devastation for alot more.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 07:35 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Rita appears to have moved almost due west for the last hour and has also slowed down. This would be a rather lengthy "wobble"... the ERC may be inducing some temporary erratic motion, or it may be starting to feel more the high to the NW that will want to steer it more westward for awhile. Until the trend persists, it is probably safer to assume the ERC is the main culprit here.

Humanriff

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 07:41 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I have been locked into this blog since Floyd in '99, about 2 months after I moved to Daytona from Colorado. I worked until they kicked everyone off the barrier island, boarded my house up the next day, and then realized I couldn't leave because all the evac routes were gridlock and they were telling people to stay if they hadn't already left because it was better to be in a house with no roof than a car. I had no clue how lucky I was that he decided to turn and just give us a little "brush off", which was pretty scary even so.

I've been glued to the NOAA visible and IR loops all day, with NOLA on my mind, among other things. I'm going to throw out a COMPLETELY unscientific set of observations and conclusion and let the experts here throw darts at me while we see what's really going to happen with Rita.

To show how much I have learned from you guys and gals, I could tell as soon as I fired up the NOAA loops this morning that an eyewall replacement was going on. Couple of years ago an eyewall replacement to me would have probably meant cataract surgery. As has been pointed out several times today, by watching the forecasted track superimposed on the loops, it's obvious that Rita has been "cheating" the NHC all day by maybe 30-40 miles northeast every three hours.

Now my real question. As I look at the structure of the storm now, there appears to be a central area that is the storm proper, and then the outflow and surrounding "stuff" that is very extended in the northeast quadrant. When I overlay the ground radar on the visible, there are already some pretty severe squalls around Lake Ponchartrain. By using the very scientific method of measuring the "storm proper" with the cap of a pen lying on my desk, and assuming that this central area does not significantly change in size, the storm making landfall somewhere in the area between Lake Charles and Abbeville would put NOLA on the edge of this central area. I have read reports today that even 6 inches of rain could severely stress the repairs to the levees. Having lived through the tropical storm area of 5 hurricanes, 6 inches of rain is a joke, especially if it is already raining there now.

I hope this is not coming off as Chicken Littleism. I am merely taking my admittedly amateur level knowledge and drawing a certain conclusion. The best way to learn is to screw up, so please, if I am wrong, have at it. I want to be wrong on this, believe me. My tax dollars are at work there.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 22 2005 07:41 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

Unfortunately, one can not make a snap shot of the atmosphere and assume that 10 minutes (even) from now those parameters will persist.

Not following you here, as I was talking about changes occuring over time, not about a snapshot. I don't know a lot of information about other factors in steering hurricanes, but if there are additional details, I'd be really interested in seeing a post about those. I think it's important to look at specifics rather than generalize. Without specifics, how could anyone know if a general statement like "models are biased to the left of the actual track" is valid or not. It could be a coincidence, if you're talking about only two storms.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 07:43 PM

latest vortex

The pressure has been remarkably steady this afternoon. Also, the ERC seems to be proceeding at a painfully slow pace:

000
URNT12 KNHC 222338
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/23:28:50Z
B. 26 deg 01 min N
089 deg 49 min W
C. 700 mb 2346 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 132 deg 125 kt
G. 047 deg 024 nm
H. 913 mb
I. 11 C/ 3052 m
J. 18 C/ 3050 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE-SE
M. CO16/35
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 16
MAX FL WIND 125 KT NE QUAD 23:21:20 Z
OUTER EYEWALL SMALL OPENING W

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 22 2005 07:50 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

Actually, in looking at the map, the potential threat line on the north of the old track is close to the new track. It shows devastation for alot more.

I agree; Katrina's western side was so attenuated at landfall that a lot of those offshore points did not get hit hard. Now an area of high density will be right in the strong part of the storm if the track goes any further east.

Looking at the sat images the last hour or so, is it possible that some dry air has gotten further into the core? I'm seeing the "donut" shape break back down into the spiral banding features, which would indicate weakening. However is it possible that this is related to the ERC that is still occuring? While the air to the east and south of the storm is certainly a lot drier than a couple days ago, as long as the storm was moving over warmer water it would seem strengthening would continue. Can someone post an updated image of the location of the eddy, perhaps she was going through a cooler area of water. Also could the slower speed be a factor.

for Thunderbird12: actually from what I've seen this year, they seem to take a really long time, on the order of 24-36 hours, to complete.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 07:57 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I think what we are seeing right now on the IR imagery is evidence of the ERC, with a fairly intense outer band of convection around the center and some bands associated with the inner eyewall still floating around.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 08:04 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

Rita appears to have moved almost due west for the last hour and has also slowed down. This would be a rather lengthy "wobble"... the ERC may be inducing some temporary erratic motion, or it may be starting to feel more the high to the NW that will want to steer it more westward for awhile. Until the trend persists, it is probably safer to assume the ERC is the main culprit here.

i'm seeing that as well. galveston people, take a deep breath....

...i feel like we're watching that game from "the price is right" where the person drops the hockey puck and down it goes, which way will it bounce, nobody knows...

point is, if you are anywhere near it, well....you know.

syfr

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 08:04 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

To say, "some weakening is expected" when Rita is passing over what looks like a pretty significant potentially hurricane strengthening eddy is somewhat irresponsible in my opinion.

To be fair, when it was stated , Rita was Cat V, now it's Cat IV, right?

I agree that either one means "leave now" if you're in the path, but the statement was correct.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 08:05 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 89.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 913 MB.

hrm, it's maintaining the speed/pressure even though its unstable...

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 08:08 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

Looking at the sat images the last hour or so, is it possible that some dry air has gotten further into the core? I'm seeing the "donut" shape break back down into the spiral banding features, which would indicate weakening.

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellit...ig&itype=wv

water vapor looks pretty symmetrical. let's watch that dry air on the western side. i think it will eventually creep in, but not until late tomorrow.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 22 2005 08:10 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 89.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 913 MB.
hrm, it's maintaining the speed/pressure even though its unstable...

Uh... what exactly is unstable? The CDO looks almost as symmetrical as it did 24 hours ago, although the cloud tops are not as high. It still looks like a cat 4 storm on IR. I'm a bit surprised the pressue isn't back below 910, in fact.

hawg92

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 08:13 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

I have read reports today that even 6 inches of rain could severely stress the repairs to the levees. Having lived through the tropical storm area of 5 hurricanes, 6 inches of rain is a joke, especially if it is already raining there now.

According to the local news media in Baton Rouge, the report is that the levees can withstand a 10 ft. storm surge in New Orleans, but only 5 ft in Plaquemines Parish. Obviously, the further east this storm tracks, the more likely those numbers will be exceeded.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 08:15 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I'd say its a bit unstable because the ERC has been going on for so long. The 5pm discussion explains it somewhat though:

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

RITA IS GOING TROUGH THE WEAKENING PHASE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE AND DATA FROM THE NOAA RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 125 KNOTS...AND THIS MAY BE GENEROUS.
HOWEVER...THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS REMAINED AROUND 913
MB...WHICH IS A VERY LOW PRESSURE TO HAVE ONLY 125 KNOTS. IN
ADDITION TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...RITA IS CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE EDGE OF A COLD SST EDDY. THIS COULD HAVE ENHANCED
THE WEAKENING TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER ANOTHER
WARM EDDY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE
THAT RITA COULD REGAIN SOME INTENSITY. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE...THIS MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE STRENGTHENING
THAT MAY BE CAUSED BY THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH HEAT CONTENT. THE
BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP RITA AS A 125 KT HURRICANE WITH
A SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT RITA
IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A DANGEROUS HURRICANE OF AT LEAST A
CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.

RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS NOT CHANGED AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO BE
STEERED TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST TOWARD THE
UPPER-TEXAS OR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTS AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EASTWARD. AFTER LANDFALL...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS.

richisurfs

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 22 2005 08:16 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I feel that was a well thought out answer to a problem someone had with the NHC. I live in an area where we got hit by two hurricanes last year. While I really respect the opinions of Clarke, HankFrank, Jason, and Ed, I will always make life threatening decsions based on what the local authorties and the NHC says. There is just too much at stake for them to be playing politics. Except for the opinions of the guys I listed above and a couple of others I will never make a decision based on what I read on this board as much as I love it.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 08:18 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

at 26N and 90W, she's almost over the warm Eddy Vortex

linky

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 08:22 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

at 26N and 90W, she's almost over the warm Eddy Vortex

linky

it will be interesting to see if the SW portion of rita picks up that warm eddy water and blows up that side of her.

here is another map of the current SSTs: http://www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp4.htm

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 22 2005 08:23 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

That image looks so different from the one I link to from the NHC TPC site. It looks much more symmetric, although you can see a very thin line of some slightly drier air outlining a spiral band that goes pretty far into the central circulation. OK then I think she'll get back up to a Cat 5 by late tonight / early morning, even though I haven't figured out exactly when she passes over that warmer eddy, and that small break in the outer eyewall. Temp diff has still remained decent and pressure has remained remarkably low, considering. I think for once I'll get to bed early and then up early to check the appearance after the satellite images come back online.

To lurkerhunter:

Thank you so much!

However that track on the image is old. She is at 26N and 89.9W...about to go right over the center of it.

OK this confirms in my mind, we see an increase in intensity tonight, even with dry air and shear.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 08:26 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Someone get down there with some spotlights so the sats can still pick up the images we need!

I agree that it has a chance to rebuild into a Cat 5. You would have thought the pressure would have ballooned today with going over so much cooler water while in an ERC.

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Sep 22 2005 08:33 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

Quote:

at 26N and 90W, she's almost over the warm Eddy Vortex

linky

it will be interesting to see if the SW portion of rita picks up that warm eddy water and blows up that side of her.

here is another map of the current SSTs: http://www.maineharbors.com/weather/seatemp4.htm

It looks like she's already starting to respond to the eddy. Look at the convection spreading and increasing to the north and east and wraping around the south. The west is still intensifying as it's still over the loop current.

If she completes the ERC while over the eddy, she might be able to regain her strength from last night.

--RC

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 22 2005 08:40 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

It looks like she's already starting to respond to the eddy. Look at the convection spreading and increasing to the north and east and wraping around the south. The west is still intensifying as it's still over the loop current.
If she completes the ERC while over the eddy, she might be able to regain her strength from last night.

I'm surprised she hasn't regained cat 5 intensity already, honestly. The last several hours on IR have been VERY impressive.

Max Mayfield on CNN just said he expects it to strengthen overnight.

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 08:41 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Do you think that Wobble to the left had to do with hitting the edge of that eddy? Just some food for thought. What do you think of that?

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 22 2005 08:43 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Max Mayfield is speaking on her meeting up w/ ythat Eddy right now and believes it will hook up and possibly increase after an additional slight decrease. Amazing watching this around 1-2pm today she was really fighting off the shear and now seems to have reestablished herself quite well

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 22 2005 08:53 PM

Re: latest vortex

In the latest recon (00:10Z), the ERC is having a tiny bit of an effect. As the inner eyewall breaks down, the eye is filling with humid slightly cooler air, and consequently the pressure has risen just a bit, however the temp diff and max flt winds remain the same, or very close. The outer eyewall continues to contract and the inner eyewall remnants to expand (from CO16-35 to CO17-32).

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 22 2005 08:54 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

wxman007, did you or anyone see Accuweather on Fox today? I was at lunch and could only see it from a distance and could not hear it. I got the impression that there was a thought from them that Rita could loop back into the Gulf post stall?? Any thoughts there, anything to support the possibility, or is that not what was said at all. I only base that off the location they had Rita @ on Monday and the positions of the Highs?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:01 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Good news!

They just had a guy from the army Core of engineers on CNN and said levees could hold up to 9 inches of rainfall in NO.

Thats great!

CaneTrackerInSoFl

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:01 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I just read Joe's tropical weather outlook. He's forecasting another close in development next week from his judgement of the tropics. He's been pretty good about the close-in stuff so I wouldn't be suprised if it were to happen.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:02 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Movement has been basically due west over the last 2 hours now, as indicated by both the satellite loops and recon fixes.

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:03 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

Do you think that Wobble to the left had to do with hitting the edge of that eddy? Just some food for thought. What do you think of that?

I cant belive that no one could give me a respons for my question.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:04 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

The 18Z GFS suggests a loop back into the Gulf, but it has been all over the place with Rita after it makes landfall. The 12Z run sent the remains SW into Mexico.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:04 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Cane, you have a link?

Thanks

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:05 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

733
URNT12 KNHC 230045
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/00:27:50Z
B. 26 deg 00 min N
089 deg 57 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 221 deg 114 kt
G. 130 deg 021 nm
H. EXTRAP 916 mb
I. 16 C/ 2439 m
J. 20 C/ 2436 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. OPEN E-SW
M. CO18-35
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 20
MAX FL WIND 125 KT NE QUAD 23:21:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
OUTER EYEWALL APPEARED CLOSED

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:05 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

Good news!

They just had a guy from the army Core of engineers on CNN and said levees could hold up to 9 inches of rainfall in NO.

Thats great!

The best news is that if the corps says it'll hold 9 inches, it'll probably hold 11. God bless those corps dudes but they sure are a conservative bunch.

CaneTrackerInSoFl

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:06 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

Cane, you have a link?

Thanks

Here is the link:

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/promotion.as...=jb_free_column

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:06 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Argh - miscontrued..
As far as the "snap shot" statement, I apologize if that some how insinuated anything to you.. In fact, I was merely stating it as a means to agree with me, as in: "people" shouldn't do that. And, yes, in general terms.

As far as specifically regarding models, I was speaking in terms of the operational models: GFS, ECM, NOGAPS, GGEM, UKMET and the only barotropic model that avails to me, the GFDL, which is actually parameterized off the GFS initialization.

Granted, I did not factor in the ensemble clusters of the respective camps.

I believe if you spoke with just about anyone in the field that studies the models daily, weather for professionally or novice, they would concur that there was a left track bias in everyone of these listed above, up until almost the day before Katrina finally came onto shore.

As far as the governing synoptics are concern. There has been a "generalized" l/w axis situated near 120W and a well teleconnected flat ridge over central plains that occasionally bulges N and ENEwards in coverage. This pattern orientation is one that has quite frankly prevailed most of the summer and still, is way place up here in the NE are having some unusually warm days so late in the year. Anyway, not to digress...point being, the "generalized" guidance must answer to these global based influencers... Details come down to mesoscale events, storm relative indices of all different kinds, etc.. Fact of the matter is, I really only meant to comment on the fact that since the pattern at large is predominantly one way, it is reasonable - albeit risky - to assume that these hurricanes coming into that arena may behave similarly.

Any thoughts?

modeleste

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:06 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

Movement has been basically due west over the last 2 hours now, as indicated by both the satellite loops and recon fixes.

Yep-- first time for such a change in direction trend in the last day and 1/2. Could mean something. Something good for NO.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:08 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Texascoast, it is unlikely that a major storm like Rita would be affected (track-wise) by such small-scale variations in heat content of the Gulf. The track has seemed to coincide with the gradient in heat content on that one image, though.

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:08 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Station 42001 - MID GULF 180 nm South of Southwest Pass, LA.
Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 200 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 75.8 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 104.9 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 20.7 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 9 sec
Average Period (APD): 7.5 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWDIR): WSW ( 253 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 27.65 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.38 in ( Falling Rapidly )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.2 �F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.0 �F

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:10 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Yes, I'm seeing that.... Hmmm. I'm almost inclined thinking that local convective processes working in tandem with EWRC events are the culprit, too.

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:11 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Larry King just said Max Mayfield to join coming up

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:13 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I. 16 C/ 2439 m
J. 20 C/ 2436 m

looks like she's starving for warm water. I bet this will change quite a bit over the next 12 hours.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:13 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Tas, the next buoy in line from that one...probably the most important one is sitting on a dock someplace waiting to be reconnected to its mooring line sometime in April 2006.(thanks Katrina!) So enjoy what you're seeing because the next buoy readings you're gonna see are at the mouths of rivers/ports.

It seems like any station thats on an oil platform is completely nonfunctional. Dunno if thats post Katrina or just bastard oil companies who don't service scientific gear.

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:16 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I know got the message back from that, was left with that one, there are many that are offline

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:17 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Thunderbird thanks for your response. But this is more than just a JOG to the left woudnt you say? Would that eddy area be rotating clockwise like a little wheel out there and Rita reacted to it . Just a thought.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:18 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

I. 16 C/ 2439 m
J. 20 C/ 2436 m

looks like she's starving for warm water. I bet this will change quite a bit over the next 12 hours.

Looks on water vapor loop like she's actually tracking slightly south of due west temporarily.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:21 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

west brings her closer to warm water which is centered at about 26.5N 91.8W
it's almost like she knows it's there.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:23 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

Thunderbird thanks for your response. But this is more than just a JOG to the left woudnt you say? Would that eddy area be rotating clockwise like a little wheel out there and Rita reacted to it . Just a thought.

No she's still stairstepping along the ridge of high pressure.

EDIT -- It's an understandable assumption. When I first started doing this a couple of months ago I wondered if water temps could be a factor in steering hurricanes. They are not. Hurricanes are steered by the atmosphere, and by different levels of the atmosphere when they are at different intensities.

pcola

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:25 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

this is a substantial jog west. Earlier today someone complained about Corpus Christi, 200 miles south of the track, being evacuated....still second guessing....welcome to the world of hurricanes!

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:28 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

Quote:

Thunderbird thanks for your response. But this is more than just a JOG to the left woudnt you say? Would that eddy area be rotating clockwise like a little wheel out there and Rita reacted to it . Just a thought.

No she's still stairstepping along the ridge of high pressure.

I agree with this "stairstepping..." It is too early to tell. She's humming along toward the WNW at a super incredibly fast forward speed of 10mph.. Right.

In other words, like all cyclones she's liable to behave eradically at slower translational velocities.
If anyone is interested:
REPEATING THE 7 PM CDT POSITION...26.0 N... 89.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 913 MB.

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:32 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Chad Myers talking about last 4 frames and the West move. Sam Champion calling it a wobble and refering to the warmer Eddy

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:33 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I believe that when Rita gets over that warm eddy, and tracks through it, I'm anticipating over CAT 5 once again. Maybe pushing 160MPH. But it will not last, a truly highend CAT 4 upon landfall along HOU/GAL coast and perhaps a little further north.

Jeffmidtown

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:33 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Just saw on CNN the latest sat and it looks like a hard left turn to the west...what in the world is going on?????

The mayor of Houston said for any residents of non-threatened areas to stay home and not evacuate.....

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:35 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

What area would be called a Non-Life Threatening area? Have they gone mad?

modeleste

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:37 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

Just saw on CNN the latest sat and it looks like a hard left turn to the west...what in the world is going on?????

The playful god said, "man it's fun keeping 'em guessing"

Jeffmidtown

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:40 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I don't know what Larry King was talking about, but he popped that in with the Chad Meyers and the move to the left.

Chad Champion of Accuweather is talking about 30" of rain in Northeast Texas.

Also, the new tracks once the storm makes landfall are just crazy, but one brings Rita and her remnants smack dab right over Atlanta...How reliable is that track?

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:42 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Stairstepping HUMM dont stairs go up one and to the side one and so on&so on. Rita has not taking a step up in a wile is this unusual or the norm?

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:45 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

GFS, mm5 have it hitting the same area with a combo punch, GFDL has it over the same general area for about 60 hours

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:46 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Don't buy it. I think that Rita will eventually stall over TX/AR/OK area for at least 3-4 days. So a rainfall over 20 inches is not out of the question.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:50 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Deep purples are now entrained into Rita once again, an indication that the cloud tops are cooling at a rapid pace.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:51 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

URNT12 KNHC 230045
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/00:27:50Z
B. 26 deg 00 min N
089 deg 57 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 221 deg 114 kt
G. 130 deg 021 nm
H. EXTRAP 916 mb
I. 16 C/ 2439 m
J. 20 C/ 2436 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. OPEN E-SW
M. CO18-35
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA01 OB 20
MAX FL WIND 125 KT NE QUAD 23:21:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
OUTER EYEWALL APPEARED CLOSED

tpratch

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:52 PM

Incoming!

Per a brief conversation with Mike C, we're about to see what happens when a mostly troll-free Fark thread links here. Fortunately, it's late in the thread so most of the folks there are
A) all curious about storms
B) all pretty civil
C) not there solely to flame/cause headaches
D) a smaller quantity than a "true" Farking usually delivers.

In short, expect an influx of new users who should be good additions.

*crosses fingers*

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:53 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

What area would be called a Non-Life Threatening area? Have they gone mad?

The area that is non-life threatening would be Arizona or New Mexico.

Seriously, if you live in the cone - or even near the fringes - on the coast or near it in a flood zone, GET OUT!

BillD

(User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:54 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

It would be unusual for a storm like this to not wander around on its track. These are very large and extemely complex systems. Someone on this board has a statement in their signature that talks about storms dancing on satellite. That is the best way to think of it. A storm is not marching in a straight line with a specific destination. It dances around a general direction and wanders here and there along the way. That is why the NHC doesn't make major changes in the forecasted track based on a jog here or a jog there. You will also notice that all the posts on this board like "Oh my God it jogged North, it is going to hit *important city*" are posts by relative newcomers to this site. Those of us that have been hanging around here awhile have come to understand that the little changes don't matter. Take a break, take a nap, get a good night's sleep. The little changes don't matter.

Bill

CaneTrackerInSoFl

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:58 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I wouldn't say little changes don't matter when a storm is Less than two days away from landfall. But yeah, I agree about the rest of your statement.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:59 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

O.K i need an answer, how far in altitude from the surface of the water to the first layer of banding with Rita is.

Joe "B" just reported on FNC that he is still predicting a hit from Rita to take place in GAL/HOU and up the 45 corridor

(For what it is worth)

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 22 2005 09:59 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

just got home looks like the NHC track of wnw is holding unlike early when people were talking about N.O looks like a jog west.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:01 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

Just saw on CNN the latest sat and it looks like a hard left turn to the west...what in the world is going on?????

The mayor of Houston said for any residents of non-threatened areas to stay home and not evacuate.....

Wobble...wobble...she will probably do this until landfall...they all do! I think they pretty much have her pinned down to the area between Galveston/East Bay over to the Lake Charles/TX-LA State line area for landfall. Beaumont, Port Arthur, Orange, and everything in between will be in trouble come Sat. morning. The only good aspect of this landfall location is that most of the immediate coastal area is swampy until you get inland around the I-10 corridor. The bad part of this landfall area is that there are a large number of oil producing platforms/rigs along the coast. I would probably lean towards the western edge of this area.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:04 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

Deep purples are now entrained into Rita once again, an indication that the cloud tops are cooling at a rapid pace.

yes, and notice that rita's sw zone is moving into the warm eddy....just pulling that heat up on its south side...very visible on the ir.

joe b. just showed a disturbance between two ridges moving away in the last few hours, and might be possibly an early indication that the high over tx is going to start pulling rita westward. not good news for houston.

rita has seemingly followed the warm eddy off the loop current....weird!

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:04 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I wouldn't wait to fill up your cars. Do it now when you can afford it. Why, Rita if by chance comes up into GAL/HOU,area, there are 26 oil-refinieries there. You do the math.

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:06 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Outer eye is 3nm smaller than the last recon (10 posts back or so):

391
URNT12 KNHC 230159
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/01:44:40Z
B. 26 deg 03 min N
090 deg 07 min W
C. 700 mb 2381 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 227 deg 109 kt
G. 136 deg 017 nm
H. 917 mb
I. 12 C/ 3015 m
J. 17 C/ 3044 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. CO18-32
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 2018A RITA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 123 KT NE QUAD 00:04:20 Z
INNER EYEWALL RAGGED AND OPEN S-E

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:10 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Greta and Fox News are going to have a Hurricane Hunter that just came out of Rita on next segment

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:10 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I am not sure of any recent papers/studies on the subject matter, but here what I learned in tropical meteorology:
There is a very brief time dependence requirement between a cyclones encountering of differentiating SSTs. The trick is, the forward motion of the hurricane can not be too fast or too slow. If too fast, the system has too much momentum stowed in the translational vector, such that the coupled lower boundary layer sea-surface interface does not have time to register.. That is why New England (every couple few decades) gets a good "Long Island Express", there is relative cold water S of Long Island; where as the N wall of the Gulf stream is about 38degrees N extending ENE out into the open Atlantic. What happens is the steering field is humming right along, the hurricane picks of translational speed and punches deep into hostile environment before it has time to weaken substantially.

Rite, by comparison, is moving quite a bit slower... the coupled lower boundary layer to sea-surface interface probably does have enough time to impose a track behavior nuance, because by very nature, the hurricane is making use of upper oceanic heat content. If for some reason the water is that substantially warmer to the W of Rita's track, it is possible that could impart a tug, or shift W...

But there's a problem with this... The thing is, there is a ridge currently over TX, particularly the N sections of the state...I'm not sure how Rita could really garner much momentum in that direction given that as she nears, there is ever increasing conflict - perhaps this is where TPC is getting the shear from...

Speaking of shear... Deeply evolved tropical cyclones have the capacity to create a kind of protective shell about their circumvallate.. This is because they have deep layer subsidence associated, which tends to deflect lighter shear fields from encroaching....If the shear is going to get "that" strong than forget about it - the hurricane is no match. But in some in situ scenarios, the approach of a weak mid lvl shear is noted to have been shunted away by very powerful hurricane centered outward max fluxes.

BillD

(User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:11 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

What matters is how those little changes add up to an overall direction and trend, so in that context you are correct, the little changes do add up so together they mean something.

Bill

Donna, Cleo, Betsy, Andrew, Katrina (there were others but these are the unforgettable ones)

oil trader

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:11 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

With the new movement due west will allow NHC to keep his forecast path intact for tonight. Tomorrow they will start to try to catch up the storm again but toward left. Final destination: Galvestone/Houston.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:12 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

I wouldn't wait to fill up your cars. Do it now when you can afford it. Why, Rita if by chance comes up into GAL/HOU,area, there are 26 oil-refinieries there. You do the math.

When the Governor of a state on the other side of the GOM tells its residents to conserve fuel... that's telling. Of course, his brother was the Governor of Texas once...

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/local/southflorida/sfl-922bushgascrisis,0,7974047.story?coll=sfla-home-headlines

Six hours ago I was thinking that the Galveston/Houston area would be spared and that Rita would hit the TX/LA border as a Cat 4. She's not cooperating in that regard. Looks on IR like she's well on her was to 165+ again... and back on track for Galveston. Yes, the water is not as hot closer to the coast, so the storm should weaken, but the surge is already being generated.

BabyCat

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:18 PM

Re: Incoming!

Given the "climate" of the posts lately, it couldn't hurt anything...

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:20 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I don't think NHC will change their track much at 11pm. Honestly though, If I was in Houston and have not evacuated and lived on the western side of the away from Galveston Bay I would probably stay home. I think it would be more dangerous to be out in the neverending track jam to Dallas and other locations inland.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:23 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

If you look at the infra-red shots, you will see the deepening purples now surrounding the storm. This is a solid indication that the cloud tops are cooling, and cooling rapidly. What does that mean, only one thing, it is getting it's act together, CAT 5 tonight into the morning while over this eddy.

Robert

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:26 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Sorry to get away from Rita But we have a situation with Philippe. It appears,
As Philippe was moving north a couple days ago there was an upper low moving SW around
The top of Philippe It seemed then to be entraining moisture from Philippe and was beginning
Pop corn convection. The upper low has continued sw west as it is now near 25 north 61 west. It
Is Trying to work to the surface I would watch this feature as it could be left behind as the
Frontal zone takes the other part of Philippe out, and a high pressure builds into the north Atlantic
Over the weekend.
Also a tropical wave is approaching from the southeast which should aid with moisture.
It�s quite possible we could have another development In the Bahamas or Sw Atlantic by
Early next week. I�m thinking it could hang around and do an Ophelia or jeanne.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:29 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

If you look at the infra-red shots, you will see the deepening purples now surrounding the storm. This is a solid indication that the cloud tops are cooling, and cooling rapidly. What does that mean, only one thing, it is getting it's act together, CAT 5 tonight into the morning while over this eddy.

There is no deep purple currently, only red... and even that is less than it was two hours ago. The storm appears to be growing in size once again, though. Eye looks cloud filled at the surface. Definately mixed signals, but it could strengthen to cat 5 by the intermediate advisory if not sooner.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:29 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

eyewall is open and ragged.

linky

Sportsfreak1989s

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:30 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Exactly what is the possibility of this thing coming within 20-30 miles of Lafayette, Louisiana ? I have been "iffy" about the track to the Houston area. I just don't see it going there for some reason. I think it is going to hit Port Author or some where east of it. Im getting pretty worried about it coming to Lafayette. I don't wanna go to sleep tonight because I don't feel like waking up and having this thing on a more easternly track and back up to a Cat. 5; because thats what seems to happen to me everytime I lay my head down for 6-8 hours.

But where ever it hits.... god bless all.

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:35 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

eyewall is open and ragged.

linky

You can clearly make out the outer eye at almost double the radius to the inner eye that is now clearly open. I'm thinking it will finish the ERC before it's fully over the eddy, and then it can grow again.

Here's the same graphic animated for 6 frames: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get...amp;numframes=6

jr928

(Weather Guru)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:36 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

everybody did this with katrina, changed their minds over every wobble. you have to look at the days track and the models clustering usually is good indication. It will do the normal north turn as 90% of them do in this area and hit that la/tx border like nhc is saying. Joe b just never backs off a position. He' s rarely accurate but when he is , he says it over and over.

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:38 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

Exactly what is the possibility of this thing coming within 20-30 miles of Lafayette, Louisiana ? I have been "iffy" about the track to the Houston area. I just don't see it going there for some reason. I think it is going to hit Port Author or some where east of it. Im getting pretty worried about it coming to Lafayette. I don't wanna go to sleep tonight because I don't feel like waking up and having this thing on a more easternly track and back up to a Cat. 5; because thats what seems to happen to me everytime I lay my head down for 6-8 hours.

But where ever it hits.... god bless all.

well the last 2 hrs she has went almost due west.I dont wish it anywhere but really dont want to see it hit Gal Hou as this will only help the oil traders who are holding oil stocks.But i would wait on the 11pm update and see then see what they say.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:39 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Here is an interesting link to the TAOS wind model on the current landfall prediction by NHC:

TAOS Model

Don't forget that it is just a model of the current track forecast. It will change.

MikeC

(Admin)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:40 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

This is the nervous time, where everyone starts trying to figure exactly where a storm will go, tomorrow night we'll find out. But in any case it won't matter much, the area that gets hit and to the east of it will be pounded, the area south and west will be as too, just not so much with the extreme surge.

Angle of approach, forward motion, and position along with tide timing will be the major factors with Rita. Rita's pressure is up a little bit, but I think it will hold around here, or weaken some more overnight.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:40 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

It is becoming clear to me that Rita peaked 24 hours ago and is in fact leveling off during the day this evening as a category 4. I think warm eddies or heat sink, it is too difficult to ascertain if these differences are having quantifiable impacts with regard to her structure very readily. Hurricanes over very warm water can have disrupted intensities in lieu of the mechanics of EWRCs. Moreover, where the water is "cool" we are still talking 81, 82-ish, which isn't exactly floated ice-bergs... We may be making too much out of this, particularly when said eyewall mechanics (events that top scientists readily admit they no very little about) have much more discernable affects by the hour.

In any case, I grew suspicious of cat-5 return, but not impossible...

Jonathan Franklin

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:40 PM

Patience and caution

I've enjoyed reading everyone's 2 cents here. Here's 2 more, the turn North may not come as soon, and it may still skirt slightly more West than current predictions.

May all who are in front of this find safety!

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:44 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I've just spent about an hour trying to understand the different steering currents. I get it now.

OK there is undoubtably some stairstepping element to the movement along the ridge of high pressure, but the westward movement is because the high has started moving to the northeast, pivoting around the NW corner of Louisiana (I think in about 12 hours it'll be over Arkansas and Missouri), and has given ground on the west of Rita, so now it is allowing more of a westward movement, but less northward movement.

The interesting thing is, please correct me if I'm wrong, that if Rita stays very strong, the stronger she stays the more of a W movement will occur and the landfall point will go back to SW of Galveston.

Eventually she'll be curving around the SW side of the ridge and moving north along the western side of the ridge, to make landfall.

I'm not sure but it looks like the more she weakens, the more she can edge a little northward in this process?

Note: on the sat wv loop, you can see the convection forming mainly to the south, I am presuming over the eddy of the loop current. Notice in the more recent recons that the temps have gone up. I trhink the completion of the ERC is going to go a lot faster, after some time over these warmer waters, with additional convection. The west movement will allow more time in those waters.

TejasTiger

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:45 PM

Re: Patience and caution

Hey folks, great site you have here.

I'm a newbie who---drumroll---made the failed attempt to evacuate from Houston (I'm in west-central Houston) to the east very early this morning (at that time, I thought I was safe in doing so), turned back due to lack of gas, and now am getting worried that this storm will move more west than north and plow over my city.

Anyways, I love all of your conjecture and info. I'm learning quite a bit in an abstract sense, but for all practical purposes youse guys are scaring the crap out of me with the discussion about the westward jog(s).

Ugh.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:45 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

It's odd to see such a sharp and concentric presentation of an eye feature in the IR (not a coincident of cloud motion) presentation and than have the vortex message say INNER EYEWALL RAGGED AND OPEN S-E...

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:46 PM

Re: Patience and caution

Do you have shutters on your home? If not and the storm does come to Gal/Houston..you should be concerned.

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:49 PM

Re: Patience and caution

...Extremely dangerous category four Hurricane Rita continues
west-northwestward toward the southwestern Louisiana and Upper
Texas coasts...
A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Port O'Connor Texas to Morgan
City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions
are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the southeastern coast of
Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl River
including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain....and
from south of Port O'Connor to Port Mansfield Texas. A Tropical
Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect from south of Port
Mansfield to Brownsville Texas...and for the northeastern coast of
Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward to the Rio Grande.
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 10 PM CDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located near
latitude 26.2 north... longitude 90.3 west or about 350 miles...
560 km... southeast of Galveston Texas and about 310 miles... 495
km...southeast of Cameron Louisiana.

Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr. A
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24
hours. On this track...the core of Rita will be approaching the
southwest Louisiana and Upper Texas coasts late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Rita is an extremely dangerous category four hurricane on
the Saffir-Simpson scale. Some fluctuations in strength are
expected during the next 24 hours.

Jonathan Franklin

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:50 PM

Strengthening...

I know most everyone has this storm steadying or weakening, but seems like there is the potential for it to get up a little more steam. Just too many irregularities with this one.

BTfromAZ

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:51 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

What area would be called a Non-Life Threatening area? Have they gone mad?

I believe his comments are in response to what has become a monumental traffic jam on the roads leading away from the Houston area. People are sitting in parking lot mode and running out of gas. The Houston mayor is attempting to get army help to airlift stocks of gasoline to strategic spots along the highway to refuel cars that are blocking the roadways. But the point is, it may be that anybody left in Houston simply can't leave now without risking being caught on the highways in the storm.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:51 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

It's odd to see such a sharp and concentric presentation of an eye feature in the IR (not a coincident of cloud motion) presentation and than have the vortex message say INNER EYEWALL RAGGED AND OPEN S-E...

The vortex was at 01:44 and the last IR frame I'm viewing is at 01:45. I would say the eyewall is open W-E, if at all... although I think it looks like it's just not as high cloudtops. Guess that's why they fly the planes.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:51 PM

Re: Patience and caution

11pm closer to the TX/LA border:

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:51 PM

Re: Patience and caution

drops 10 more and its down to a 3...........Track the same

danielw

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:51 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

Exactly what is the possibility of this thing coming within 20-30 miles of Lafayette, Louisiana ?

If you live south of I-10 in the Lafayette area, and for that matter...
South of I-10 From Lafayette/ Baton Rouge to the Houston area. Please leave as soon as you can.
Acadiana Will be in the NE Quadrant of Rita.
Probability of 100 mph winds for 3 hours or more.
Depending on her forward speed.
Take your important papers with you. And throw the breakers to OFF at your power meter. If you don't feel comfortable doing that. Then turn eveything off at your inside breaker panel.

Andrew came close to flattening Acadiana in 1992. This storm will be at or above Andrew's windspeed at landfall...even without a direct hit.

The storm is forecast to stall, after moving inland.
The Atchafalaya River will certainly go to and possibly above flood stage.
Hindering rescue and recovery efforts.
Tidal surges near the coastline will wipe out roads and bridges (based on Katrina's damage).
Further hindering rescue and recovery efforts.
Not to mention Power Co. crews.

If you are in an area that has water standing after a thunderstorm moves through. I would seriously-Get Out.

I haven't heard how the Corpus Christi area is. For the TX viewers it might be an option.

WWL Radio 870 has excellant coverage...always does.
You don't have to go to the Interstates to evacuate. Take the State Highways and go North. You can get on the Interstates later.
Alexandria, Shreveport, Monroe..even Vidalia and possibly Natchez.
Don't try Mississippi...All of the rooms south of Jackson are taken. And rescue and recovery crews from the MS Gulf Coast are being evacuated temporarily to safer locations inland.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:53 PM

Re: Patience and caution

And the AL/MS border is now in the long-range cone!?!?!? Does the NHC really think this thing could go southeast after landfall?????

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:56 PM

Re: Patience and caution

Well look a the guidence, Hugh - almost every one of them is recurving toward the coast now!

Not pretty if it stalls over TX.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:56 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

This storm will be at or above Andrew's windspeed at landfall...even without a direct hit.

What was Andrew when it hit there? cause this storm can (most likely not) but can drop more yet.

Beaumont, TX

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:58 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Almost everyone in the neighborhood is gone. We will leave about 3 in the morning headed to Lufkin. Traffic is finally thinning out.
I don't imagine I'll be posting anything for awhile. It's been interesting hurricane season, hasn't it?

BillD

(User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:59 PM

Re: Patience and caution

Several of the models have Rita stall inland and loop back around to the north, east, south and then west. So, yes that is a possibilty.

Bill

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 22 2005 10:59 PM

Re: Patience and caution

Quote:

Well look a the guidence, Hugh - almost every one of them is recurving toward the coast now!
Not pretty if it stalls over TX.
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

Yeah I saw the guidance. Some models move it southwes, others east and then south, some pretty much not at all. I also realized that the NHC forecast points for day 3 through 5 show NO MOVEMENT. Not good for Texas as you said.

But worse could be if it actually does manage to backtrack and get into the Gulf. We'd have an Ivan situation, except much quicker potentially. I don't see that happening but I didn't see it happening with Ivan either.

garrison

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:01 PM

Re: Patience and caution

917MB seems very low for 140 mph sustained, one of them have to give, wouldnt be suprised if the winds came back up to match the pressure

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:01 PM

Re: Strengthening...

Quote:

I know most everyone has this storm steadying or weakening, but seems like there is the potential for it to get up a little more steam. Just too many irregularities with this one.

...Believe me, I was in the camp of cat 5 zealots earlier in the day, too; especially when Rita went through that explosive regeneration of her CDO later in the afternoon... I was puzzled at the recon reports as the day grew old, the winds never really responding. I was also puzzled by the fact that the pressure stayed low, while this CDO prominence took shape which only underscores the former statement. Only 145...?

Don't get me wrong. I don't wish 200mph of body parts and building components in a froth of a storm generated tsunamis on anyway (not that the latter could ever happen - sounds good in sci-fi though!). However, just when we think we're getting the hang, more curve balls... It's called Tropical Meteorology. And, to add insult to injury, the pressure begins to rise subtly ...ish this evening. So, for whatever physical implausibility she may or may not be achieving, the winds may never need to respond to anything... That is why I'm beginning to pull back on return to cat 5...don't like pressure rises..

TDW

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:02 PM

Re: Patience and caution

was the 917 extrapolated?

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:03 PM

Re: Patience and caution

Quote:

917MB seems very low for 140 mph sustained, one of them have to give, wouldnt be suprised if the winds came back up to match the pressure

I just replied to this affect... I'm not sure why that has to be... The pressure has been low all along and the CDO was almost as impressive as last night during the late afternoon...Yet, no response... Can't knock consistency you know...

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:04 PM

Re: Patience and caution

convection strengthening.
eyewall less open.

link

garrison

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:05 PM

Re: Patience and caution

advisory said the 917 was "reported" by HHA

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:05 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I didn't know we had Beaumont members on the board....I want to wish you the best of luck and safe travels as you get as far away from your area as possible. Looks like your town may be in trouble this weekend. I think you are making the right decision!

Robert

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:09 PM

Philippe

TPC discusssion

PHILIPPE REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. IN FACT...BOTH SAB AND TAFB BEGAN
SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC ON THE BROADER LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF PHILIPPE

Subtropical storm is developing sw of philippe from the upper low it should continue to become tropical in nature over the next 48 hours.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:09 PM

Re: Patience and caution

Quote:

advisory said the 917 was "reported" by HHA

Also said data did not support even 140 mph winds but due to the impressive satellite imagery they would keep that intensity... and that the ERC was nearing completion. Strengthening overnight is possible while it crosses the eddy, but weakening expected before landfall... which could be a net wash.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:10 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

11PM Discussion

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:14 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Sustained hurricane force winds for over 6 hours.
Gusts over 121mph
Seas over 38ft

Buoy

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:15 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/222049.shtml?

key right here:

ITA IS CURRENTLY
MOVING OVER THE EDGE OF A COLD SST EDDY. THIS COULD HAVE ENHANCED
THE WEAKENING TODAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER ANOTHER
WARM EDDY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THERE IS SOME CHANCE
THAT RITA COULD REGAIN SOME INTENSITY. BECAUSE THE SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE...THIS MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE STRENGTHENING
THAT MAY BE CAUSED BY THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH HEAT CONTENT. THE
BEST OPTION AT THIS TIME IS TO KEEP RITA AS A 125 KT HURRICANE WITH
A SLIGHT WEAKENING BEFORE LANDFALL.
This Quote is from the 5 PM CDT Discussion~danielw

Looks like there prodiction of CAT 3 Landfall could be right on as usual.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:16 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Nothing of surprise in the 11pm discussion, except that they don't raise the intensity much, but they don't drop it much before landfall either: a solid Cat 4. At that intensity it's going to be bad.

The track at point of landfall remains essentially the same as the last two discussions (I plotted them all)...just west of Port Arthur. CNN just showed a visual which indicated most of the land there would be under water in a storm surge. Wistfully wishing they'd thought to do to that before Katrina hit the MS Gulf Coast. Might have saved several hundred lives.

Rita's large windfield is about to run out of real estate. Won't that have a significant effect on intensity starting about 12 hours from now?

Note -- you can see the convection around the outer eyewall on the sat wv 02:45Z image.

What does shortwave IR show vs IR? The shortwave IR is looking very symmetrical and values around the storm maxed out on the scale.

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:19 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Nate, your quote is from 5PM not 11PM.

forecast is for landfall as 125knot/140mph Cat 4.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:24 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

Sustained hurricane force winds for over 6 hours.
Gusts over 121mph
Seas over 38ft

Buoy

It's the water temperatures that are also really interesting.. 84.7 to 81.3! drop of almost 4F... You can really see the Eikmen layer spreading by that..

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:25 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I apologize I just got a new laptop and still working out the learning.

Here is the 11PM

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/222049.shtml?

HE BOTTOM LINE IS
THAT THE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY FLUCTUATE DURING THE NEXT 36
HOURS...AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.

I havent seen anywhere where forecasters say a CAT 4.

If you have a link please show me,I still have relatives in that area.

garrison

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:27 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/031210.shtml?table

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:28 PM

Re: Philippe

Quote:

TPC discusssion

PHILIPPE REMAINS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A BROADER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. IN FACT...BOTH SAB AND TAFB BEGAN
SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS AT 0000 UTC ON THE BROADER LOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF PHILIPPE

Subtropical storm is developing sw of philippe from the upper low it should continue to become tropical in nature over the next 48 hours.

You know what is also interesting about that is that the operational versions of the global based models have no clue there is a subtropical low is there.... They do have a representation of what's left of shreaded Philippe, accelerating and obsorbing into N Atlantic extratropical features.... Hmmm, what's to happen with subtropical low - stay tuned... Also, impressive wave comes off Aftrica... Note, the waters between Africa and the Islands have not been processed much this year... It is getting late climate wise for Cape Verdi cyclones, but seeing as the waters are both anomalously warm and unprocessed, could be a signal that Dr. Gray is onto something...

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:29 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

also, to elimnate the effect of daytime heating.
a drop of over 4 degrees from one night to the next.
10:50PM last night 85.1F
9:50PM tonight 81.0F

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:30 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Nate, look at the bottom of that same discussion.

24HR VT 24/0000Z 28.4N 93.0W 120 KT
36HR VT 24/1200Z 29.8N 94.2W 115 KT...INLAND

danielw

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:32 PM

Re: Philippe

I'll leave the above Philippe posts up.
As they do have other information in them.

Please stay on Topic. Once Rita is onshore we can discuss and follow Philippe. Thank You~danielw

Any further posts on Philippe will be graveyarded.

javlin

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:33 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I don't think it would of save that many lives to be quite honest.Most of the lives were lost up the rivers and bayous.It was here that some places had 20-30 feet water overflowing the banks and taking whole families in some instances.I think no one and I mean no one saw this coming or they would of gotten out.I think that part of the problem was that everyone thought that cat 4 surge was coming not a cat 5 derived from a 175 mph storm at 902mb.Now wherever Rita goes she will carry much the same wave with her.

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:33 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

also, to elimnate the effect of daytime heating.
a drop of over 4 degrees from one night to the next.
10:50PM last night 85.1F
9:50PM tonight 81.0F

...hm, do you really think 'daytime heating' factors into a region that has been densely shrouded over by clouds, rain and wind?

Either way, getting a mass of water that large to change temperature by that much, that quickly, takes quite a taking ay?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:37 PM

Re: Philippe

Ok, when I worked in the weather field I use to have all this stuff.

But does anyone have a Knots to MPH scale?

Thanks

kts x 1.15=mph ~danielw

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:38 PM

Re: Philippe

I multiply by 1.15

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:38 PM

Re: Philippe

I believe it is 1.146 mile to every knot

KATFIVE

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:39 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Tip (a nice historical reference btw) or others, I've been out of the loop for a most of today and I have to say this thing gets more interesting all the time. As of early this morning, I expected a drop in intensity, and then I looked at the IR and the eye and the central pressure at 11pm.. This must be a "historical" freak. The eye looks only a little less perfect than last night. The pressure, given ERC and cold water and dry air and milder waters, still looks very impressive. Anyone want to venture a theory explaining these various factors? Has this storm shown how statistically driven models necessarily falter when confronted by an "outlier?"

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:41 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

03:25 eyewall still ragged and open.
struggling to complete cycle.
dry air entering from the WNW?

link

good night!

gman

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:41 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I noticed on the recent satellite loop that the eye took a distinct west (actually a tad south of west) jog right at the end. ANYONE ELSE NOTICE THIS? This movement did not look like a wobble. There had been some speculation that the high might actually strengthen and rebuild westward, thus moving landfall back toward Galveston / Freeport. But, if that jog has an actual south component to it, then one wonders where this storm will eventually make landfall.

(Weather Master)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:46 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Looks like in the last few frames that she is back on track to the forecast points?

(Meteorologist)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:47 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

Tip (a nice historical reference btw) or others, I've been out of the loop for a most of today and I have to say this thing gets more interesting all the time. As of early this morning, I expected a drop in intensity, and then I looked at the IR and the eye and the central pressure at 11pm.. This must be a "historical" freak. The eye looks only a little less perfect than last night. The pressure, given ERC and cold water and dry air and milder waters, still looks very impressive. Anyone want to venture a theory explaining these various factors? Has this storm shown how statistically driven models necessarily falter when confronted by an "outlier?"

...Not that it "should" carry much weight to say this but Rita's eye, IR appears to be "wobbling" (getting sick of that word) NW again.

...There is one difference here, however. The eye is still clearly defined, but has apparently shrunk.... Hmm, they did say in the 11pm that the inner eyewall was finally giving up and the outer eyewall was beginning to contract. Interesting if someone can verify these observations as related?? I'll tell yeah what, I apologize if I seem to be wavering over this but it will definitely be interesting to note the next vortex message for wind...

...As to your questions regarding anomalous behavior, I'm not sure about the cause, but I am sure about the method. When this EWRC began, the winds came down and the pressure has for all intents and purposes been fairly consistently low (notwithstanding these slight rises this evening). Essentially I pose the supposition that Rita has never actually really weakened, rather, is taking an unusually long time to actually replace her rings. Any thoughts??

danielw

(Moderator)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:47 PM

New Max Wind

132kts MaxFlt Level Wind at 0330Z.
Location of max wind 26.4N/ 90.0W

That's roughly 152mph.

ozzystorm

(Registered User)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:51 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I am a novice(not even that) but was looking at some ir radar and was wondering what the system starting to rotate east of florida is? Could it be another tropical storm/hurricane forming. Also is it possible for rita to suck in energy/warm water from down south. i noticed there r some storm cells that seem to have migrated north of the southern gulf into rita in the latest satellite images.
would appreciate any one enlightening me.

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:52 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

Hmm, they did say in the 11pm that the inner eyewall was finally giving up and the outer eyewall was beginning to contract.

No, but the latest recon indicates it has:

081
URNT12 KNHC 230338
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/03:24:50Z
B. 26 deg 10 min N
090 deg 19 min W
C. 700 mb 2406 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 311 deg 107 kt
G. 219 deg 018 nm
H. 919 mb
I. 11 C/ 3050 m
J. 17 C/ 3044 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30 no mention of the inner eyewall here!
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 2018A RITA OB 17
MAX FL WIND 125 KT NW QUAD 01:50:40 Z
INNER EYEWALL REMNANT VERY RAGGED FROM E-W

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/URNT12.KNHC

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Sep 22 2005 11:58 PM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I think everything you're seeing is either related to Rita or Philippe. There are a few ordinary t-storms also, but all rotation is in relation to our two systems.

There was a convection zone somewhere off FL that was discussed for possible development earlier today, but NHC dropped it when the convection died down. I never paid much attention to it becuase of Rita. Almost everything in that region is being ripped into Rita's feeder bands, so nothing has a chance to survive if it starts to get going. The next concern points are still well out in the Atlantic, and, until Rita and Philippe clear, will probably not be able to develop (except possibly the new wave off Africa).

Hope that answers your question

--RC

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:01 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

I am a novice(not even that) but was looking at some ir radar and was wondering what the system starting to rotate east of florida is? Could it be another tropical storm/hurricane forming. Also is it possible for rita to suck in energy/warm water from down south. i noticed there r some storm cells that seem to have migrated north of the southern gulf into rita in the latest satellite images.
would appreciate any one enlightening me.

Ozzystorm,
After having followed both features in question for a number of days I am virtually certain that the subtropcal low spinning up E of Florida is a separate entity and has not (yet if ever) benefitted from the circulation field of Rita, or the impact Rita has had on the oceanic heat content where the subtropcal feature is..

Aside from the matter, there is still plenty of warm ocean E of Florida.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:02 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Looks like a NW motion had resumed in the last few satellite frames, of course now we are getting into the nightly satellite outage time. Also looked like the inner eyewall was finally giving up the ghost on the last few frames. Once again, we are faced with a system that could look a lot different on satellite when the eclipse period is over. Some erratic motion may still be possible until the new eye establishes itself.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:04 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

Quote:

Hmm, they did say in the 11pm that the inner eyewall was finally giving up and the outer eyewall was beginning to contract.

No, but the latest recon indicates it has:

081
URNT12 KNHC 230338
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/03:24:50Z
B. 26 deg 10 min N
090 deg 19 min W
C. 700 mb 2406 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 311 deg 107 kt
G. 219 deg 018 nm
H. 919 mb
I. 11 C/ 3050 m
J. 17 C/ 3044 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30 no mention of the inner eyewall here!
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 2018A RITA OB 17
MAX FL WIND 125 KT NW QUAD 01:50:40 Z
INNER EYEWALL REMNANT VERY RAGGED FROM E-W

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/URNT12.KNHC

11 PM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

FLIGHT LEVEL WIND DATA AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
CYCLE MIGHT BE NEARING COMPLETION. THERE IS NOW ONLY A SINGLE
FLIGHT LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM AT A RADIUS OF ABOUT 20 N MI...ASSOCIATED
WITH THE OUTER EYEWALL THAT THE AIRCRAFT RADAR INDICATE IS SLOWLY
CONTRACTING... WHILE THE INNER EYEWALL CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:06 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

The 11pm discussion did mention that there was only one wind maximum (rather than two seperate maximums) on the last recon pass, so the latest recon report of only one eyewall follows nicely from that observation.

gman

(Registered User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:09 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Yes, I just looked at latest loop and it appears as though she resumed previous track. ANYONE: Any indication from someone with recent data whether the high pressure is rebuilding or ceased its retreat to east?

collegemom

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:38 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

"daytime" heating about today was 100 so where were you?

collegemom

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:44 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

then again it's late and we all might be a bit frayed/farked. It's time for a short nap. From central Arkansas I will crack a window and keep an ear tuned Friday thru Sunday. God Bless us each and every one.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:53 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

The 00Z GFS appears to be a little further west with its landfall forecast, though still north of Galveston. It also continues to take the vorticity remnant of Rita back into the Gulf after a few days inland. I think we can safely assume that the steering currents will basically collapse for awhile after it makes landfall, so somebody could get a lot of rain. Exactly where it drifts will be difficult to say.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 23 2005 12:53 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Waveland, right on the coast, reported 52 people missing, they couldn't find any bodies for those folks because they were washed out to sea.

------------------

Bad news from Jackson County, MS.

My brother just called to find out some info about the weather. Serious flooding has already occured in Gulf Park Estates area of Ocean Springs, cutting off some residents from escape, and no one in that area seems to know anything about Rita's surge. There are people camping out on their slabs in tents, all along those tiny subdivisions along the coast there in the west county. A lot of the coastal areas, if houses are left habitable, don't have power. Also my brother said the land lines went out today so no one has any phone service, that includes the sheriff's dept.

They have no teletype or any way to have received any info from the NWS.

So he did not know about the high tide/surge being caused by Rita. I let him know to expect 5-8 ft. The trouble is I don't know how much of that has already arrived and how bad its going to get. I'm afraid people are going to have problems overnight and not know about the flooding until it is happening to them.

He said that they are getting a stiff SW breeze over 20mph.

My brother did notice this aft before he went to work: water washing over Beach Blvd in Pascagoula. He didn't know about getting this much water though.

Right now he's trying to pick his way around into these areas if he can get in, to see if anyone needs to be rescued. He couldn't get into Gulf Park because all the roads to get in there are already underwater; he just took a causeway to the next subdivision to the east to try to see if he finds anyone there.

I have to think that the water is going to continue to rise some more tonight? Looks like they're going to get more water than was mentioned in the warnings (warnings that no one down there could receive).

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 23 2005 01:15 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

thought this was an interesting article.....

Blast a hurricane away? Forget about it!

KATFIVE

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 01:17 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Any sense of how rita's windfield compares to Kat's? She looks very big

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 23 2005 01:19 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I'm a little busy trying to get help for my brother.

Why don't you look it up yourself on the NHC TPC website?

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 23 2005 01:21 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

the water here in PCB is high, i went down to the beach about 20mins ago and water is up to the Condos/dunes/houses....you can't see the beach anymore....waves around 6-10 ft from what i could tell.

PColaDogg

(Registered User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 01:26 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

KATFIVE, Jeff Masters said this on his Weather Underground blog:

"I expect that the area of extreme storm surge from Rita will be less than Katrina's, since Rita is a smaller storm."

That said, I don't know to what degree Rita is smaller. I suspect that now that she's more or less through an EWRC, she'll continue to get bigger. Whether she reaches Kat size, I dunno.

I'd like to find something that would let me compare them (and other storms like Charley, Dennis, maybe even as far back as Camille), preferably graphically, but I don't know of any such thing yet.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 23 2005 01:38 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

pressure is up more..... also open in eyewall

URNT12 KNHC 230534
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/05:07:30Z
B. 26 deg 23 min N
090 deg 33 min W
C. 700 mb 2432 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 043 deg 112 kt
G. 311 deg 020 nm
H. 921 mb
I. 11 C/ 3052 m
J. 16 C/ 3045 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN W
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 2018A RITA OB 22
MAX FL WIND 132 KT NE QUAD 03:31:30 Z

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 01:41 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

KHOU.com is reporting that outter bands has reached LA.

Port Forchuida and Golden Meadows have 52 Mile Gusts this hour.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 23 2005 01:44 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

almost can see the shear about to kick in

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

so much for Probabilities

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tropical/climo/ns_prob_sep.htm

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 23 2005 01:57 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

sats back... can see a ragged west side of storm.... goes with open eyewall on west side..... over all appearance looks weaker than before... i think she has once last chance with the eddy vortex when she passes it, but i think shear and dry air will start affecting her midday today....and on.....

DEBRN77

(Registered User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:02 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

If you hear anything from your brother please let me know, my son is there he is suppose to be leaving in the morning for the Panhandle. You have me worried now

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:04 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

OK, got my brother connected with NWS NOLA for storm surge info. They are also going to get high tide tonight and it will be an additional 2-3 feet.

At about 24 hours before landfall, Katrina's windfield was as follows: hurricane-force winds extended out 105 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extended out 205 miles from the center. These distances increased before landfall, as well (to 125mi & 230mi, when the eye was still 2 hours south of NOLA at 8am).

However before landfall the western side of the storm was attenuated greatly, so damaging winds did not extend out that far to the west of a line running along, say, Jefferson Parish, LA.

By comparison, right now Rita is at 80mi and 205mi respectively, about 24 hours from landfall.

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:06 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

If you hear anything from your brother please let me know, my son is there he is suppose to be leaving in the morning for the Panhandle. You have me worried now

Well the big concern are folks that are now living in tents on their slabs, who may be asleep when the water comes in. Does your son have a home that was washed away by Katrina's surge in that area?

DEBRN77

(Registered User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:08 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

No, my son is an insurance appraiser, he is staying in a RV in Bilioxi.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:37 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/230542.shtml

New Advisory is out..

Good news

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 921 MB...27.20 INCHES.

KATFIVE

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:40 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Marg--I understand you are busy--just thought given your previous posts (very adept and full of technical info) that you might have some observations at your finger tips. It is okay to ask even stupid questions in this forum?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:42 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Is it me or did NO short Range NWS radar just go out?

Beaumont, TX

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 02:54 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

We will be leaving shortly. Just wanted to thank everyone on the forum for the information I get here.
We all know if you live on the coast long enough eventually you'll be visited by a hurricane. Talk to ya'll later.

Allison

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:01 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Take care, Karen...

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:16 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

katfive I answered it when I had a chance...go back and review the posts you'll see it, #56786.

Raymond

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 03:56 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I f I look on the infrared loop, I would say, that there are a lot of positiv signs last two hours. Cloud top temperatures are generally raising. The eye looks not that concentric anymore. It�s very ragged. A lot of wobbling. Dryer air seems to be entrained from the west. So, it seems to me that Rita has some serious "diggestiv" problems.
It also seems to track somewhere near the TX/LA-border, what shouldn�t be the worst, compared to other possibilities.
So, I would hope, that this would continue and that we`ll have a weaker Rita at landfall than expected.

Susan in Jupiter, FL

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Sep 23 2005 04:35 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I haven't been able to access the NO or Lake Charles radar, either.

zacros

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 05:25 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Just when you thought it was safe to go back into the water, another potential site comes up. This snippet is from the NHC outlook.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE HAS FORMED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
BERMUDA...AND A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF TROPICAL STORM
PHILIPPE. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...BUT THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

The low looks like it spun off of Philippe. All we can do is watch and see.

One note about Rita and the tropical systems of late, there have been so many "wow, what a storm" type of systems that it is getting hard to say that anymore.

Frank P

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 23 2005 06:15 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

wind wise she might be weaker but expect a significant storm surge, lessons learned from Isadore (Biloxi 03), Ivan 04 and last but not least Katrina.... RIta should bring with her a strong Cat 4 or even 5 storm surge.... worse case would be to hit directly at a right angle, which she probably won't do, but might be close

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Sep 23 2005 07:09 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

927mb, but she's over the warm eddy:

349
URNT12 KNHC 231036
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/10:07:30Z
B. 26 deg 53 min N
091 deg 11 min W
C. 700 mb 2468 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 233 deg 114 kt
G. 139 deg 019 nm
H. 927 mb
I. 14 C/ 3052 m
J. 17 C/ 3048 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 2118A RITA OB 13
MAX FL WIND 126 KT NE QUAD 08:25:00 Z
SOUTH 20 PERCENT OF EYE WALL BULGING OUTWARD 8NM; REST CIRCULAR.

jr928

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 07:15 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

sat does show her beginning to look very ragged and falling off of her tight spin. won't help surge any but should keep winds from being so wide and devastating as was katrina. only hope she continues this for the rest of the day.

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Sep 23 2005 07:20 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Yeah, I'm seeing that with the IR, but it also looks like she's growing in size and that's part of why she's looking ragged. She also looks to have ingested a small amount of dry air which is working its way in.

I think she's going to weaken only becuase her wind field is spreading. She should stay a Cat 4 or strong Cat 3 until landfall. I don't think she'll regain Cat 5 anymore.

--RC

Frank P

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 23 2005 07:21 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

also signs of some dry air on the NHC IR floater loop... see what affect if any this might have down the road.... she could wind down to a Cat 2 and the surge will still be catastrophic for SW LA....if it hits at the LA/TX line, coastal flooding occurring wide spread throughout coastal MS.... right now reports are 3-4 feet above normal in Hancock county and evacuations are ongoing....

HURRICANELONNY

(Weather Guru)

Fri Sep 23 2005 07:44 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Yep. Some dry air is getting in. That's great. Also she might hit north of galveston/houston which is also great. The bad part is Louisiana could get more surge and wind. It's very possible that Houston will get what Katrina gave me here in Ft. lauderdale. If that is all they get wind wise that would be great. I hope the computer models are wrong with her stalling or looping to. The Houston traffic is amazing on the news but you know what they say prepare for the worst and hope for the best. Hopefully Rita is the end of the season. I'm done!

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Sep 23 2005 07:47 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I just checked the strom position in relation to the eddy - it's over the eastern edge of the warm eddy now, and the strong burst of convection on the band west of the core is directly over the warm eddy. I think we are starting to see the effects of this warm water, but dry air is inhibiting development of the system right now.

Models are very worrisome for track, with almost every one of them stalling it over Texas somewhere. We're looking at the potential for major flooding.

Wind field is ENORMOUS! http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/center/Tropical/wtnt02.gif

---

On a different tropical note, the overnight TWD has 3 waves out in the Atlantic, two of which appear to have the possibility to become invests in the near future.

--RC

Frank P

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Sep 23 2005 07:50 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

that makes two of us... I think I done for a long long time.... when I get my little FEMA trailer on the beach I don't even want a depression to come to Biloxi as it will be in my front yard about 50 feet from hwy 90, and another 100 yards from the GOM...

Jax Chris

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 07:54 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Random Chaos did say:

Quote:

927mb, but she's over the warm eddy:

349
URNT12 KNHC 231036
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
...
H. 927 mb
I. 14 C/ 3052 m
J. 17 C/ 3048 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
...
SOUTH 20 PERCENT OF EYE WALL BULGING OUTWARD 8NM; REST CIRCULAR.

Yeah, the eyewall's now closed and she's got the warm water, both of which should help with strengthening. However, there's only a 3 degree temperature difference and she's not circular, so I suspect we might see a little more weakening before she starts to strengthen. At the least, I would think she's going to take a little time to strengthen, and we're not going to see anything explosive.

Chris

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Sep 23 2005 07:56 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

We can really see the steering currents that will push it into eastern TX now:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Sep 23 2005 08:14 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

(yet another post...)

For those of you wondering what kind of rain to expect, here is the 60 hour rainfall ending 72 hours from now (GFS 06Z):

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_p60_072l.gif

remember that yellow is 9+ inches...and with some forcasters saying 25-30 inches possible, you could have some areas that are a LOT more than 9 inches.

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Sep 23 2005 08:17 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

(and another...)

New recon out. ERC underway!

URNT12 KNHC 231207
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 23/11:43:10Z
B. 27 deg 05 min N
091 deg 27 min W
C. 700 mb 2481 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 309 deg 098 kt
G. 215 deg 017 nm
H. 927 mb
I. 12 C/ 3043 m
J. 17 C/ 3046 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. E36/30/25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF307 2118A RITA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 126 KT NE QUAD 08:25:00 Z
INNER EYEWALL RAGGED ON NORTH SIDE, THIN S.

NewWatcher

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Sep 23 2005 08:23 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

RC,

Do you know a site to lookup hurricane info not by year but by statistical input. In other words, I am trying to find out the last year we had 2 cat 5's hit in the same year. someone said 1915 but i heard it was in the 60's sometime.
thanks

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Sep 23 2005 08:27 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I don't know a site that sorts by that sort of info. However, I remember the news from last night when they said it

Check 1960 and 1961

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/history.asp

(P.S. - Skeetobite, could you make it so it checks both GETs and POSTs so I can give direct links to years? I'll drop this in the Suggestions forum also.)

SMOKE

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Sep 23 2005 09:20 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

Quote:

RC,

Do you know a site to lookup hurricane info not by year but by statistical input. In other words, I am trying to find out the last year we had 2 cat 5's hit in the same year. someone said 1915 but i heard it was in the 60's sometime.
thanks

Would this suffice?
RE: NHC The Deadliest, Costliest, and Most Intense United States Tropical Cyclones From 1851 to 2004 report.

tpratch

(Moderator)

Fri Sep 23 2005 09:38 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I'm betting he has GET turned off for security reasons. Planning what he is, he's gotta think ahead towards being big. There may be another solution.

I can't believe she keeps going through ERCs. I honestly expected her to be strengthening instead of weakening. That being said, she's not exactly a weak storm right now.

(Meteorologist)

Fri Sep 23 2005 09:50 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

I'm not sure that dry air is that big of a problem for Rita right now... the main issue is the disorganized state of the inner core of the storm. It appears to still have some opportunity to intensify in the short term, since there is little sign of shear affecting the storm and the outflow is excellent for now. However, if it remains stuck in an endless cycle of ERCs, any deepening would be minimal and the max winds will end up being less than what the pressure would indicate.

tpratch

(Moderator)

Fri Sep 23 2005 10:00 AM

Re: Hurricane Rita Tracking West Northwest in the Gulf

New thread, btw