MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Sep 23 2005 11:00 PM
Rita weakens to a Tropical Depression

10PM Update
Rita has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression.
At 10PM CDT, Rita was located about 40 miles north of Shreveport.LA. Moving north at 10 mph.

3PM Update
Rita has become a tropical storm while inland and is located near Jasper, TX. Further weakening is expected, though the storm will likely produce localized flooding inland across the ArkLaTex region over the next few days.

11:30 AM Update
Rita continues to weaken this morning. Storm surge effects in Beaumont and Port Arthur were minimal, but there aren't too many reports east of there yet.

Otherwise in the tropics, Philippe has fallen apart, but another area near Philippe has a chance to develop over the next day or so. This will likely head out to sea.

Off to the east Atlantic an wave crossing to the west has a chance to develop over the next week.


8:30 AM Update
Hurricane Rita has made landfall just east of the Sabine Pass (southeast of Port Arthur Texas) at about 2:30AM EDT, 1;30AM CDT. It will be hours before we know the extent of damage. The direct area of landfall along the Gulf coast beach was sparsely populated but Port Arthur and Beaumont are not all that far inland, but the surge area was rather large. More to come later.

Original Update
Rita is 55 Miles southeast of Sabine Pass and still a category 3 storm, with 930mb of pressure and 125MPH winds.



Storm surge is beginning to be reported in a few areas.

Good luck and God Bless the landfall zone.

Friday - 9PM CDT UPDATE
From the NHC:
THE 8 PM CDT POSITION...28.7 N... 93.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 11 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 931 MB.

Hurricane Rita still a Category III Hurricane and she should make landfall - probably in extreme southwest Louisiana (Cameron Parish) at about 5am CDT - as a Category III Hurricane with sustained winds of at least 115mph. Rita's forward motion now appears to be shifting toward the north northwest since the 8PM CDT bulletin. Hurricane force winds will soon batter the northeast Texas and southwest Louisiana coast with extreme conditions likely in the early morning hours from High Island, Texas, to Garden City, Louisiana, and hurricane force conditions west and east of those points. High storm surge at and east of the landfall point could easily exceed 16 feet since Rita will be approaching almost perpendicular to the coast. Expected isolated wind gusts up to 140mph. Embedded fast moving tornadoes are likely over all of Louisiana and portions of southeastern Texas. Rainfall along east Texas and west Louisiana could easily exceed 15 inches as Rita slows in her northward movement after landfall and creates widespread flooding.

Tropical Depression Philippe is dissipating and NHC has issued its last Advisory on this system.
ED


Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.

Event-Related Links

I've begun recording coastal radar of Rita you can see that here It will remain until Rita is out of range.
Level 3 radar recording courtesy HCW here.

Emergency Management:
Texas Division of Emergency Management
Links to Texas County Emergency Management

Radars
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Houston/Galveston, TX Long Range Radar
Corpus Christi, TX Long Range Radar
Brownsville, TX Long Range Radar
Lake Charles, LA Long Range Radar
New Orelans, LA Long Range Radar

Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Corpus Christi, TX, Houston/Galveston, Lake Charles, LA
New Orleans, LA
Brownsville, TX

StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Video/Audio

Local Media/Television
KHOU the CBS affiliate in houston, is former Hurricane Center director Neil Frank's station, and likely will begin streaming once warnings are up in the area
Channel 2 NBC affiliate in Houston
ABC 13 in Houston

Rita news updates from Lake Charles

Lake Charles/Layfette Local Television
KATC TV
KPLC

Radio
KTRH Rado News/Talk station in Houston with streaming
Other Houston area radio

Newspapers
Houston Chronicle


Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, is doing his live audio show as Rita approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is in Galveston, Texas. see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports n the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX not affiliated with the real NHC

Reply and let us know of other links.

Rita

Animated model plots of Rita

Google Map plot of Rita

Floater satellite loops (With forecast track overlay):
Rita Floater Visible Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Floater Shortwave Infrared Satellite Loop
Rita Dvorak Loop
Rita Water Vapor Loop

Philippe

Animated model plots of Philippe

98L

leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 23 2005 11:06 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

The 0300Z numbers are out -- 120MPH, 931mb, still moving NW at 12. It almost looks to be going NNW on radar, which would land it just west of Lake Charles.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 23 2005 11:11 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

I don't know how they managed.
RECON is "inbound NE".

I'm guessing that means they are headed NE.

ralphfl
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 23 2005 11:11 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

Looks on radar to be more ragged and moving northwest

This will hit within 3-4 hrs totally and begin to weaken.


To my eye even on IF sat the eye looks worse and worse.

I would think it may weaken some yet and maybe only a cat 2 when it hits if they track it right up till landfall.

BTW is this storm as bad as Andrew when it hit the second time? just wanted to know due to a post early today.

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 23 2005 11:12 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

Quote:

The 0300Z numbers are out -- 120MPH, 931mb, still moving NW at 12. It almost looks to be going NNW on radar, which would land it just west of Lake Charles.



Wow, there are some really deep burst of powerful convection at this hour!
Radar seems to suggest this is going to take a few more hours to get the eye across the shore... It's batter time.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 23 2005 11:19 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

Pressure falls the last hour: Beaumont 1.8 mb (to 988.3 mb), Lake Charles 0.3 mb (to 989.5 mb).

Three radars (Houston, Lake Charles, New Orleans) all indicate that the eye is open to the south, which is consistent with what the last plane was reporting (will there be another recon flight?... they are running out of time if there is). The feature I had been following as the partial eyewall seems to have accelerated to the WNW and merged with another rainband. I'm not exactly sure where I would put the center of circulation based on the radar at the moment. Regardless, the intense convective bands to the north of the system will be capable of producing very strong winds for anyone in their path. The stronger the convection, the more you get the higher winds aloft mixed down to the surface.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 23 2005 11:21 PM
Recon

Back on track with Recon.
The second aricraft is 'Inbound NE' of the storm.

Aircraft currently in the storm reported a Flight Level Max Wind of 111kts at 0253Z.
Using the 91% factor this would give a surface wind estimate of 116mph.
More than high enough to destroy property.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 23 2005 11:21 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* WARNING FOR ONSET OF DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO FORCE WINDS FOR...
CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 1200 AM CDT

* AT 1000 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE HURRICANE EYEWALL APPROACHING THE WARNING
AREA.

* DESTRUCTIVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 TO 120 MPH WILL SPREAD ACROSS
CAMERON PARISH AND JEFFERSON COUNTY PRODUCING TORNADO-LIKE DAMAGE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

TAKE COVER NOW! TREAT THESE IMMINENT EXTREME WINDS AS IF A TORNADO
WAS APPROACHING. MOVE IMMEDIATELY TO THE SAFE ROOM IN YOUR
SHELTER AND TAKE ACTION TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

THESE DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE SIMILAR TO A
TORNADO. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS
AND REMAIN IN YOUR SAFE SHELTER UNTIL THE EYEWALL PASSES.



ralphfl
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 23 2005 11:22 PM
Re: Recon

Quote:

Back on track with Recon.
The second aricraft is 'Inbound NE' of the storm.

Aircraft currently in the storm reported a Flight Level Max Wind of 111kts at 0253Z.
Using the 91% factor this would give a surface wind estimate of 116mph.
More than high enough to destroy property.




Is this more intense then Andrew or not when it hit?


116 almost down to a cat 2

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 23 2005 11:24 PM
Re: Recon

Quote:

Back on track with Recon.
The second aricraft is 'Inbound NE' of the storm.

Aircraft currently in the storm reported a Flight Level Max Wind of 111kts at 0253Z.
Using the 91% factor this would give a surface wind estimate of 116mph.
More than high enough to destroy property.



I'm speculating that the current presentation on radar regarding the SE quadrant of the core circulation field may be not accurate?

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 23 2005 11:26 PM
Re: Recon

Also, the eye appears to be contracting in radar imagery, as well as making a very obvious left wobble...let's see if it sticks...If this does, it is bad bad bad...because, obviously it prolongs the assault on Louisiana's Coast before striking farther W!

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Fri Sep 23 2005 11:31 PM
Re: Recon

URNT12 KNHC 240324
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/03:00:30Z
B. 29 deg 01 min N
093 deg 19 min W
C. 700 mb 2524 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 138 deg 115 kt
G. 055 deg 031 nm
H. 932 mb
I. 12 C/ 3045 m
J. 18 C/ 3054 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN NE
M. C25
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 2518A RITA OB 02
MAX FL WIND 117 KT NE QUAD 02:50:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 19 C, 81 / 6NM

garrison
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Sep 23 2005 11:31 PM
Re: Recon

Just IMHO, too much is being made of the "lower" max winds, this monster is at 931MB, which is the biggest issue, because it is most directly related to the #1 destructive force, storm surge, in spots, 10-15 miles inland will be up in water up to the average person's neck.

ralphfl
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 23 2005 11:38 PM
Re: Recon

just looked it up and if this does not get stronger before landfall Andrew would be stronger then this storm when it hits.

Will be interested to see if it does more damage since it should be a little less then Andrew was.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Fri Sep 23 2005 11:40 PM
Winds

The max winds will do the secondary damage.
As with Katrina. Rita's storm surge is probably going to be responsible for the primary damage. From the coastline to Interstate 10.
What the water doesn't or can't damage or destroy, Rita's winds will finish off.

Lastest Vortex is showing a circular 25nm EYE.
So you virtually have an F2 Tornado that is 25nm wide.
Nearly the same size as Katrina's Eye.

I heard Stephanie Abrams quote someone this afternoon.
"Hide from the wind, and run from the water"

oil trader
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 23 2005 11:42 PM
Re: Recon

I have been following this stuff since afternoon. Maybe it is me but posts make me very confused about what is really happening.

I need from some patient poster a very simply synthesis of what is going on to understand at least something:

a) It is right now weakening or strengthening?
b) What is more likely? Landfall at Cat 2 or Cat 4, or maybe still Cat 3
c) Track is NW or NNW?
d) Landfall closer to Port Arthur or Lake Charles?
e) Why electricity power is still up in all places?
f) What is that that after landfall the system can not go anywhere and perhaps return offshore through the same inverse line?

Thanks in advance

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Fri Sep 23 2005 11:44 PM
Re: Recon

Excellent comment. The recon report listed above states a maximun flight level wind of 117 knots. That translates to a surface wind speed of 121mph - right in the middle of the Category III range. A Cat III is a major hurricane - and they are called 'major' for a reason - the destruction that they can cause can be quite substantial. So I agree - lets not downplay a major hurricane. To do so is not responsible and not acceptable.
ED

ralphfl
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 23 2005 11:48 PM
Re: Recon

Quote:

I have been following this stuff since afternoon. Maybe it is me but posts make me very confused about what is really happening.

I need from some patient poster a very simply synthesis of what is going on to understand at least something:

a) It is right now weakening or strengthening?
b) What is more likely? Landfall at Cat 2 or Cat 4, or maybe still Cat 3
c) Track is NW or NNW?
d) Landfall closer to Port Arthur or Lake Charles?
e) Why electricity power is still up in all places?
f) What is that that after landfall the system can not go anywhere and perhaps return offshore through the same inverse line?

Thanks in advance




A.Status quo maybe a little weaker

B.3 maybe a 2 but 4 very very unlikely very.

c.NW

d.inbetween but a jog may take it somewhere else.

E.Cause not enough winds to put it all out yet.

F. too tired and makes no sense.

G. My own sell your oil stocks they are droping

Ralph. That's pretty good. Go take a nap now.~danielw

F: The High Pressure system that is responsible for steering Rita into the coast. Has weakened. A trough (trof) of Low pressure west of Texas, presently, should move through and nudge Rita out of the area. BUT, the models aren't predicting that to happen for a while. Last check around 24-36 hours. That's probably where NWS is getting the rainfall amounts. One inch per hour for 24-36 hours is Way too much rainfall and water. Especailly when the rivers have crested in the 15-20 foot range.
Excuse the expression. Double Whammy or worst case scenario.~danielw

carolt
(Registered User)
Fri Sep 23 2005 11:49 PM
Freshwater canal locks

There's interesting reading on the Freshwater Canal Locks (8766072) water level. They dropped off abruptly. Could this indicate a breach of some kind or just a measurement failure?
Also, the barometer was down to ~980 mb at 2112 CST in Calcasieu Pass.

tides online

[edit] oops, corrected number

Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Sep 23 2005 11:53 PM
Re: Freshwater canal locks

Rita tide guage assemblage by CO-OPS:

http://140.90.121.76/rita.html

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))
Fri Sep 23 2005 11:54 PM
Re: Recon

a) It is right now weakening or strengthening? neither
b) What is more likely? Landfall at Cat 2 or Cat 4, or maybe still Cat 3 - Cat III
c) Track is NW or NNW? becoming more NNW
d) Landfall closer to Port Arthur or Lake Charles? probably Cameron, but it doesn't matter since both Port Arthur and Lake Charles and many other locations (see the Main Page Article) will receive strong hurricane force winds
e) Why electricity power is still up in all places? Many locations are already without power - including most of Port Arthur
f) What is that that after landfall the system can not go anywhere and perhaps return offshore through the same inverse line? See the NHC Discussion bulletin, but to be brief, Rita will become trapped between high pressure systems to her east and west.
ED

oil trader
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 24 2005 12:00 AM
Re: Recon

Thanks for your answer, but I am flat I am not trading in a face of human tragedy. I did the same during Katrina. Aditionally if you follow my posts from Wednesday you can see that I was contantly predicticting a softer landfall.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 12:06 AM
Re: Recon

Agreed.

While recon does show a trend of weakening which is basically negligible at this point, the wv sat images taken 15 min before and 15 min after the recon still show a very significant increase in convection in the core, which is just offshore.

Pressure is solidly in the Cat 4 range and the temp diff at the eyewall is still 6 deg. The limited Cat system has to officially stay at a 3 because it is based on the max sustained surface winds, but the strength of this storm still has potential beyond a Cat 3, of course in terms of surge, and I would assume in terms of localized wind gusts as well.

Starting about 30 to 60 minutes ago this powerful central area of convection was at the coast between Galveston and Intracoastal City, with what looks like the deepest area of convection about to hit right at the TX/LA state line. The convection is still very strong even over portion that extends the first 5 miles inland, probably because of the low marshy elevation.

Just pulled this from Jeff Master's Wunderground blog as it is applicable and does explain the increase in convection:

"Radar shows some very intense echoes in the northern eyewall smashing into the coast, and infrared satellite imagery confirms the presence of extremely cold cloud tops in the northern eyewall. It appears that the interaction of the eyewall with land is producing extra surface convergence of winds that is forcing up some strong updrafts, creating very high thunderstorm tops."

ralphfl
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 24 2005 12:07 AM
Re: Recon

not ready for a nap yet and oil trader can't pm you i did try early today but you got them blocked.


All in all this storm is strong but alot and i mean alot better case then what could have been and what was forcasted days ago.

But again still a strong storm i want to see what they claim the winds were at lanfall.


Fox news just said they now finally see the west jog i stated awhile ago.Takes them awhile.Now it needs to just get inland so it can finally lose its power.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 12:19 AM
Re: Recon

Pressure drops the last hour: Beaumont 3.8 mb (to 984.5 mb), Lake Charles 3.5 mb (to 986.0 mb). Beaumont reported sustained winds of 49 with gusts to 63 mph in the last hour.

The NW eyewall in particular looks very intense at the moment. While the eyewall is not closed, those parts of it that are producing intense convection will be able to produce the very strong cat 3 winds listed in the advisory.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 12:41 AM
Re: Recon

Repost:
HURRICANE Rita DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 23 2005 (edited~danielw)

DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z
INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS HOVERING NEAR 930 MB THROUGHOUT
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAXIMUM 700 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAD STILL BEEN 120-125 KT.

WSR-88D RADAR IMAGERY FROM SLIDELL LOUISIANA...LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA...AND HOUSTON TEXAS STILL DEPICT A WELL-DEFINED EYE THAT IS JUST A FEW HOURS FROM REACHING THE COASTLINE NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER.
THE EYEWALL REMAINS INTACT AND INTENSE... ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE... WITH A RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS OF ABOUT 20 N MI... SURROUNDED BY DENSE AND WELL-DEVELOPED SPIRAL BANDING.
VELOCITIES FROM THE RADARS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE WINDS HAVE NOT FALLEN OFF MUCH AND SUPPORT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY OF 105 KT.

RITA REMAINS A FORMIDABLE MAJOR HURRICANE... AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS IT HAS OVER WATER... SO Rita IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AT CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.
*******

Dropsonde released into the western Eyewall. At 0413Z indicating "Wind, last 150m (492ft) of the drop, from 300 degrees ( NW ) at 84kts"-97 mph.

This isn't the max wind. Just the Eyewall Max wind.
And this is on the western side of the center.~danielw

Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Sep 24 2005 12:43 AM
Re: Recon

I'm seeing 971mb at Calcasieu Pass, LA (it's almost due north of the eye now).

(Source: that tide link I gave before)

bobbutts
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 12:47 AM
Re: Recon

Looks the surge is starting to come in around Calcasieu Pass, LA
Big jump on the last update to over 5' above normal and the winds are still coming from ENE not onshore yet
http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?station_info=8768094+Calcasieu+Pass,+LA

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 12:48 AM
Cameron

Using this loop. It looks to be a near due North heading now.
That would put Cameron and Holly Beach in the landfall zone.

The Composite Reflectivity shows the full eyewall.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS.p37cr/si.klch.shtml

Allison
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 24 2005 12:57 AM
Re: Cameron

Question for the mets and mods....

Looking at the radar loop, there is a large "void" of reflectivity to the S/SE of the center, and a band has now wrapped back around this large area (about 60 miles?). Could this be the beginning of an ERC?

Nevermind... I looked at the loop again and answered my own question...

LSUHurricane
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 24 2005 12:57 AM
Re: Cameron

Hey fellas. Ive still got power and im in Baton Rouge right now. In the past hour the winds have really started ripping to about 50-55 mph. Currently, and since this morning, Ive collected about 5 inches in the rain gauge. I still cant believe that we have power quite honestly. The transformers are popping all over the neighborhood. I'm praying for elderly grandparents house right now that is in Sulphur, LA . They are staying at my house right now.

Rad
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 24 2005 12:59 AM
Re: Cameron

very nice radar <a href="pichttp://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/radarplus/pro/local.asp?user=66000100549&radar=KLCH&choices=radarproduct%3DV0%26surface%3DWSPD%26thunds%3Dtrue%26radarframes%3D20&ltg=false&defaultflag=1" target="_blank">pichttp://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/radarplus/pro/local.asp?user=66000100549&radar=KLCH&choices=radarproduct%3DV0%26surface%3DWSPD%26thunds%3Dtrue%26radarframes%3D20&ltg=false&defaultflag=1</a>

That's a subscription link and will not allow access~danielw

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:02 AM
Re: Cameron

When will the news media ever learn. I was watching all the news channels and they are doing the same thing they did with Katrina. Oh this is not as bad as we thought it would be. The eye of the hurricane and the 20 Foot Storm Surges have yet to approach the gulf. We are still about 3 hours from the storm coming on shore where the worst of the storm surges will be felt and the the intense and damaging winds. While it would great if they are right, they always seem to make the same mistakes over and over again. Do not get me wrong I appreciate their coverage, just wish they would learn to take a wait and see attitude.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:05 AM
Re: Cameron

000
URNT12 KNHC 240453
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/04:31:50Z
B. 29 deg 07 min N
093 deg 29 min W
C. 700 mb 2533 m
D. NA kt
E. 000 deg 000 nm
F. 201 deg 107 kt
G. 130 deg 043 nm
H. 934 mb
I. 10 C/ 3050 m
J. 17 C/ 3038 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN ESE
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 2518A RITA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 117 KT NE QUAD 02:50:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C, 126 / 26NM

Rad
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:05 AM
Re: Cameron

sorry DW

ralphfl
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:06 AM
Re: Cameron

Hurricane Rita Intermediate Advisory Number 26a


midnight CDT Sat Sep 24 2005

...Eye of major Hurricane Rita wobbling toward landfall near the
Louisiana/Texas border...strong winds and heavy rains battering
southern Louisiana and southeastern Texas...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect from Sargent Texas to Morgan
City Louisiana. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should have
already been completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the southeastern
coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Pearl
River... including metropolitan New Orleans and Lake
Pontchartrain... and from south of Sargent Texas to Port Aransas
Texas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At midnight CDT...0500z...the center of Hurricane Rita was located
near latitude 29.2 north... longitude 93.5 west or about 40 miles
south-southeast of Sabine Pass along the Gulf Coast at the
Texas/Louisiana border.

Rita is moving toward the northwest near 11 mph. This general
motion is expected to continue until landfall. A gradual
turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Saturday.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:08 AM
Re: Cameron



URNT12 KNHC 240453
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/04:31:50Z
B. 29 deg 07 min N
093 deg 29 min W
C. 700 mb 2533 m
D. NA kt
E. 000 deg 000 nm
F. 201 deg 107 kt
G. 130 deg 043 nm
H. 934 mb
I. 10 C/ 3050 m
J. 17 C/ 3038 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. OPEN ESE
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 2518A RITA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 117 KT NE QUAD 02:50:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 18 C, 126 / 26NM


URNT11 KNHC 240456
97779 04434 71296 94049 30500 06091 10109 /3804
RMK AF309 2518A RITA OB 11
OUTBOUND NW OB


i like how they add extra remarks... "inbound or outbound".... makes it easier to know which way recon is heading.... i would assume that a p-3 is up for HRD landfall data...not sure but will check.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:17 AM
Re: Cameron

It helps when you have two planes in close proximity also.
I haven't gotten any NOAA data. Lately.
But I haven't checked their site either.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:24 AM
Re: Cameron

Beaumont just reported a wind gust to 65 knots (74 mph). Their wind direction is still from the due north. Also, a ship report south of Beaumont on the coast indicated a wind gust to 78 knots (90 mph).

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:26 AM
Re: Cameron

the is the last from noaa3 i have...

URNT40 KWBC 240110
NOAA3 2318A RITA


and nooa9 did ther last at

NOAA9 2418A RITA OB 26
62626 SPL 2603N08497W 0141 WL150 13019 085 DLM WND 16009 013150 M
BL WND 13019 LAST REPORT TO KWBC

just got this
looks like another AF plane

URNT12 KNHC 240513
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/04:53:00Z
B. 29 deg 11 min N
093 deg 26 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 176 deg 113 kt
G. 084 deg 017 nm
H. EXTRAP 936 mb
I. 11 C/ 3652 m
J. 17 C/ 3658 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW
M. E36/24/16
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA02 OB 02
MAX FL WIND 113 KT E QUAD 04:48:10 Z

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:27 AM
Re: Cameron

There's a turn, toward the NE? in those coordinates

A. 24/03:00:30Z
B. 29 deg 01 min N
093 deg 19 min W

A. 24/04:31:50Z
B. 29 deg 07 min N
093 deg 29 min W

A. 24/04:53:00Z
B. 29 deg 11 min N
093 deg 26 min W

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:28 AM
Re: Cameron

URNT11 KNHC 240517
97779 05124 71279 9500/ 30400 32055 0907/ /3036
RMK AF309 2518A RITA OB 12
INBOUND SW OB


fixing to get another votex in a little bit

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:31 AM
Re: Cameron

max making the runs on fox now... 112mph wind guest reported in cameron

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:34 AM
Re: Cameron

Jeff Morrow, The Weather Channel, is in Sulphur,LA.
He has just reported that the wind is shifting at his location. Indicating the eye is moving onshore to his ESE.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:37 AM
Re: Cameron

max said landfall about 1hr away... just east of state line... he thinks that storm surge will make it to lake charles.... and is worried about it.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:39 AM
Re: Cameron

well here's landfall (eyewall is making landfall on radar in cameron)

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1153 PM CDT FRI SEP 23 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LAKE CHARLES HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CALCASIEU PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
CAMERON PARISH IN SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
JEFFERSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS
ORANGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS

* UNTIL 200 AM CDT

* AT 1150 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THE LEADING EDGE OF HURRICANE RITAS EYEWALL APPROACHING JEFFERSON
COUNTY AND CAMERON PARISH.

* DESTRUCTIVE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 100 TO 120 MPH WILL SPREAD ACROSS
CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES AS WELL AS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE
COUNTIES PRODUCING TORNADO-LIKE DAMAGE THROUGH 2 AM.

TAKE COVER NOW! TREAT THESE IMMINENT EXTREME WINDS AS IF A TORNADO
WAS APPROACHING.

THESE DESTRUCTIVE WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE SIMILAR TO A
TORNADO. SEEK SHELTER ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF THE BUILDING IN AN
INTERIOR HALLWAY OR ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET. STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.


CALL 337-477-5285 TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE WEATHER SERVICE.

HanKFranK
(User)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:41 AM
rita delivers

storm is getting close to landfall. at it's forward speed it'll probably be moving ashore at sabine pass around 4am eastern/3am central. extrapolated track takes the eyewall and core of the strongest winds right through the beaumont/port arthur/orange area.. with the significant surge extending westward from there across cameron parish. no reports from lake charles lately, but beaumont is reporting hurricane force gusts now. pressure was hanging around 930mb all evening but since has risen up a few mb.. storm will probably landfall at around 940mb. that's typically a category 4 pressure, but rita has done as many before it and come somewhat unwound. typical behavior of hurricanes that get insanely strong days before landfall; ERCs slowly broaden their cores and make them into broad, less intense windstorms. with that low pressure the surge will likely be very significant.. locally on the order of 15-18'. i believe the port arthur, johnson bayou, and cameron will see the worst surge damage; the latter two towns should be pummeled to bits. rita will be with us through the middle of next week. it'll probably be down to tropical storm saturday afternoon and a depression by sunday morning, but the center will be meandering... probably southward after the weekend as advertised by some models. there is a chance it could pull an allison and get back to the gulf, but more likely it will just rain itself out over the very areas that it has impacted worst.
philippe has left us... or rather been declassified. if some system evolves out of that nontropical low that it twisted into i'd personally rename it philippe, since the surface remnant of the former storm is the most significant vortex in the larger system. the whole thing has elongated since the other day, though, and may never acquire tropical characteristics as was earlier surmised.
wave out near 35w isn't looking too hot, but still has some model support. some shear to contend with, but it may fight its way up over the next few days.
noticed the euro seeing a caribbean system now... different from the gfs. it may be resolving it from that piece of wave energy currently near 55w sliding westward, while the northern extremity peels off up into that complex low that ate philippe. gfs still resolving an early october storm that runs at the southeast coast, so i'm not sure which bunch of ideas to buy into. bottom line is that whatever if anything does spring up at the end of the month in the caribbean will have a window to run at the u.s. as the ridge really builds up in the western atlantic during the first week of october.
i checked on the mjo graphic earlier and it is showing that the main wave is finally sliding over, after sending an early pulse in and camping in the pacific for a week or two. lot of shear in the basin now, but if that cools off a little we'll probably see another batch of wannabe storms brew up. give it a few days to calm down from the big zing rita threw into the circulation as it went haywire a couple days ago... and we may see that.
HF 0541z24september

Allison
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:44 AM
Re: Cameron


96.9 MPH gust reported at Calcasieu Pass.

This station updates frequently... ever 6 minutes or so...

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:44 AM
Re: rita delivers

URNT12 KNHC 240542
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/05:31:50Z
B. 29 deg 22 min N
093 deg 30 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 042 deg 065 kt
G. 315 deg 014 nm
H. EXTRAP 937 mb
I. 11 C/ 3654 m
J. 16 C/ 3653 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE-SW
M. C20
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA02 OB 08
MAX FL WIND 113 KT E QUAD 04:48:10 Z

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:51 AM
Re: rita delivers

eye is showing up on Base velocity 32nm, from lake charles.. at 2200ft above the ground.... just a tenth of a mile off cameron.... 71kts is a pretty good area... (max out) so i would assume 100mph and plus winds are right near the shore now....

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:55 AM
Re: Cameron

The water temp has risen about 2 degrees in the last 90 minutes at Calcasieu Pass. I guess that is a sign of the Gulf water being pushed in.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:56 AM
Re: rita delivers

have to say CNN met is kicking butt.... the titan radar and the way he ables to have someone in the background drive the machine while he's talking and for him to be able read and talk is.... i think the best coverage i seen, but have to say fox news live reports are GOOD!

bobbutts
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:57 AM
Re: Cameron

Quote:


96.9 MPH gust reported at Calcasieu Pass.

This station updates frequently... ever 6 minutes or so...



That's 96.9 KT = 110 MPH

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:57 AM
Re: rita delivers

I mentioned a turn in the Vortex reports.
I'm plotting the fixes on mapping software, and indeed there was a turn to the NE. Followed by a turn back to the NNW.
Curiosity. We have two planes flying and giving fixes. That would give a variable right...two different observers.

The last two Vortex reports yield a heading between them of 338deg Magnetic North.
That would put Rita ashore between Holly Beach and the Tx/ La State Line.
Sending more of the surge into Calcasieu Lake???

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:01 AM
Re: rita delivers

eyewall just came ashore it looks like it was a tight curved line as it came across the beach... and then it looks like it collapsed and spreaded out... on next radar image..... which would mean there getting the crapp kicked out of them in, from Cameron to the west......
NHC sayes eyewall is making landfall...just in

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:07 AM
Re: rita delivers

max back on.... msnbc... eyewall on the coast....

BabyCat
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:12 AM
Re: rita delivers

I'm watching Fox. They are interviewing 2 people that work at a casino/hotel in Lake Charles on the roof of a parking lot. I keep expecting to see them fly away in the wind.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:12 AM
Re: rita delivers

URNT14 KNHC 240609
SUPPLEMENTARY VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
INBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01281 10949 13020 11009 32051
02283 20947 23997 21010 32054
03284 30945 33969 31010 31061
04286 40943 43923 41210 32069
05288 50941 53846 51010 31046
06290 60939 63774 61810 30065
07292 70937 73659 71810 32069
MF291 M0938 MF075
OBS 01 AT 05:16:50Z
OBS 07 AT 05:42:50Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
OUTBOUND
LAT LON jHHH TTDD ddfff
01296 10934 13610 11414 14095
MF297 M0933 MF107
OBS 01 AT 05:57:10Z
OBS 01 AT 05:57:10Z
OBS 01 SFC WND /////
AF309 2518A RITA OB 16


based on this.... i think this shows eye is making landfall

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:12 AM
Re: rita delivers

0540Z 29.6N 093.3W Max flt level wind 120kts

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:14 AM
Vortex at landfall

URNT12 KNHC 240602
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/05:49:50Z
B. 29 deg 23 min N
093 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2539 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 309 deg 075 kt
G. 214 deg 024 nm
H. 935 mb
I. 17 C/ 3063 m
J. 20 C/ 3047 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN SOUTH
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 2518A RITA OB 13
MAX FL WIND 117 KT NE QUAD 02:50:20 Z

Allison
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:15 AM
Re: Cameron

Quote:

Quote:


96.9 MPH gust reported at Calcasieu Pass.

This station updates frequently... ever 6 minutes or so...



That's 96.9 KT = 110 MPH



Maybe I need another nap...

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:16 AM
Re: rita delivers

URNT12 KNHC 240602
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/05:49:50Z
B. 29 deg 23 min N
093 deg 32 min W
C. 700 mb 2539 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 309 deg 075 kt
G. 214 deg 024 nm
H. 935 mb
I. 17 C/ 3063 m
J. 20 C/ 3047 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. OPEN SOUTH
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 2518A RITA OB 13
MAX FL WIND 117 KT NE QUAD 02:50:20 Z


can tell that with two different planes.... 935mb or 937mb.... hmm... who's right?

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:18 AM
Re: rita delivers

URNT12 KNHC 240617
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/06:08:10Z
B. 29 deg 27 min N
093 deg 36 min W
C. 700 mb 2548 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 055 deg 060 kt
G. 334 deg 011 nm
H. EXTRAP 937 mb
I. 0 C/ 0 m...0 Celcius, that looks very strange!
J. 17 C/ 3046 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN SOUTH
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 2518A RITA OB 18
MAX FL WIND 109 KT NE QUAD 05:59:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:25 AM
Re: Cameron

Allison. You can't nap yet. You and Storm Hunter are helping me with the data. LOL
Thank You both.

nate77
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:28 AM
Re: Cameron

Just to let you guys know.. KHOU.COM out of Houston is streaming live coverage online.

They say this thing will weaken greatly when it hits land, TS by the afternoon, possible.

Anyone get any surge reports yet?

Thanks

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:31 AM
Re: Cameron

From the Lake Charles radar loop. I would say that the brunt of the storm and the surge has probably hit Cameron and Holly Beach. Head On!
With the eye being off to the west of Cameron. I would suspect that a huge surge will spread up into Calcasieu Lake.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:32 AM
Re: rita delivers

yeah thats weird..... i am seeing some strange things on landfall.....it's like the main eyewall in northern part at higher levels (alt.) threw its self towards the coast and as it hit spreaded out... thats normal (friction casues the eyewall to collapse and winds shoot out as they hit the surface... but now appears there is another eyewall about to come ashore just west of cameron... much smaller and maybe weaker than first... the offical landfall is nearing soon.... looks like to me the center is contracting and is smaller....

landfall works out works out pretty good, cuz the center is really close to lake charles radar... including base veloctiy 32nm... (level III).... i would expect that level II datat is just amazing... alomst as good as katrina going over the NHC and miami radar. and i would think maybe two more vortex reports.

BabyCat
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:35 AM
Re: rita delivers

The surge reports should start coming in soon, I would think.

A gas well just blew in Montegut, LA. Reports that you can smell the gas parish-wide (Terrebonne)

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:36 AM
Re: rita delivers

here's a pic of what i was talking about
the "first intense eywall" is already shore above cameron


http://stormhunter7.tripod.com/landfall.png

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:40 AM
Re: rita delivers

Seems like that has been happening most of the evening... the eyewall will try to develop around to the E and SE side of the center, but it doesn't "stick" and the eastern part of the eyewall fragment gets tossed to the north, with a new one developing in its place. It's not really a steady-state eyewall, but rather a continually regenerating feature, at least on the eastern side. The NW side of the eyewall has been pretty steady.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:42 AM
Re: rita delivers

fox dude on top of parking deck (lake charles) just showed a boat or ship out in the river... i hear there is a missing "casino boat"... but i bet that ship is coming in with the strom surge...from the south... had a light on.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:43 AM
Re: rita delivers

URNT12 KNHC 240617 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/06:08:10Z
B. 29 deg 27 min N
093 deg 36 min W
C. 700 mb 2548 m
D. NA kt
E. 000 deg 000 nm
F. 055 deg 060 kt
G. 334 deg 011 nm
H. EXTRAP 937 mb
I. 10 C/ 3046 m....this has been changed. It was 0.
J. 17 C/ 3046 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. OPEN SOUTH
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 2518A RITA OB 18 CCA what's this?
MAX FL WIND 109 KT NE QUAD 05:59:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB

CCA-means the observation has been corrected...to some degree~danielw

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:46 AM
Re: rita delivers

URNT12 KNHC 240624 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/06:15:30Z
B. 29 deg 30 min N
093 deg 34 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 037 deg 076 kt
G. 294 deg 015 nm
H. EXTRAP 938 mb
I. 11 C/ 3665 m
J. 17 C/ 3650 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE-SW
M. C24
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA02 OB 14 CCA
MAX FL WIND 113 KT E QUAD 04:48:10 Z

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:47 AM
Re: rita delivers

fox dude sayes its a barge..... just broke from the port and heading towards the 1-10 bridge... uh oh...

BabyCat
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:49 AM
Re: rita delivers

I think it's at the 210 by-pass.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:54 AM
Re: rita delivers

yeah i just did a google on that area.... its looks like the 1-210 bypass would be near that area....

aslo center of rita... center of eye... about 3-6 miles off coast...

Allison
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 24 2005 02:57 AM
Re: rita delivers

It looks like the station at Calcasieu Pass is out... no report for more than an hour now...

Various news reports:

-- power outages all over the area

-- 2 fires reported on Galveston Island, including one in the historic Strand district... one person seriously burned

-- also on Galveston, trees down, windows blown out, etc.

-- no water service in Freeport

-- in Beaumont, water in street and some debris (unsure whether water is from rain or storm surge)

-- WWL in New Orleans reports that 95% of Lake Charles evacuated earlier today (hopefully Cameron did the same)

-- container ship adrift on Lake Charles and there are concerns that it could hit the IH-10 bridge

-- no storm surge reported in Lake Charles (yet)

HanKFranK
(User)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:02 AM
Re: rita delivers

looks like landfall is now 60-75 mins away. pressure is slowly rising so it may come in closer to 942mb. that'll put it way up on the rank list of storms by minimum pressure at landfall, but the winds are low-end cat 3 now. recon data is now only supporting cat 2, but i doubt nhc will let that ride as it would be kinda stupid to have a hurricane with a cat 4 pressure and cat 2 winds. the center of the hurricane is unleashing its full fury on cameron parish. it looks like final landfall will be a few miles east of the sabine pass, then over sabine lake. the impact at port arthur should resemble what pensacola got from dennis, only with a stronger surge factor. orange should get raked pretty hard too. with the eye track beaumont should get some hurricane force winds, but the weaker western eyewall and not quite as much damage as if the storm were 10-20 miles west. rita already appears to be slowing down a little, and should keep steadily slowing as it plows inland tomorrow... by sunday it should just be drifting northward. some kind of cyclonic loop should ensue near the tx/la border west of shreveport sunday-monday... steering currents will be weak so it's hard to say where the storm will track from there (range of possibilities include almost every direction except for north and northwest. most likely it will begin to drift more to the south. the red and sabine river valleys are likely to face a significant flood threat during the coming week.
HF 0701z24september

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:03 AM
Re: rita delivers

new tornado warning for eyewall until 400cdt

landfall within next 30-45 mins for eye

hang on, you're right on the timeframe. i needed to refresh that radar loop... -HF

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:08 AM
Re: rita delivers

Hank, All of the New Orleans evacuees, that were staying in the Lake Charles Shelter, were evecuated to Shreveport.
I hope they have them on high ground!

oil trader
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:09 AM
Re: rita delivers

Quote:

... steering currents will be weak so it's hard to say where the storm will track from there (range of possibilities include almost every direction except for north and northwest. most likely it will begin to drift more to the south. the red and sabine river valleys are likely to face a significant flood threat during the coming week.
HF 0701z24september




Have you seen the last run of GFDL model with a short loop following the whole Texas coast aftermath?

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:12 AM
Re: rita delivers

still seeing 938mb and 939mb in the eyewall...

expect last vortex was just dropped....


CNN is looking good right now... they have three of there best live right now

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:14 AM
Recon

I'm still seeing reports of 108kts at flt level.
0651Z 29.6N 092.7W 108 KTS

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:16 AM
Re: rita delivers

The satellite presentation is a moot point right now, but the latest IR image (0645Z) shows some extremely cold cloud tops, less than -80C in spots. That is some very intense convection on the north side of the eye.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/215.jpg

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:17 AM
Re: Recon

max is on...(cnn) like he's watching the networks and when he see something live... he likes to jump on...pretty cool.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:21 AM
Re: Recon

URNT12 KNHC 240715
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/07:03:20Z
B. 29 deg 38 min N
093 deg 39 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 184 deg 108 kt
G. 093 deg 047 nm
H. 936 mb
I. 9 C/ 3657 m
J. 19 C/ 3651 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE-W
M. C24
N. 12345/NA
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 WX18A RITA02 OB 23
MAX FL WIND 111 KT SE QUAD 06:39:10 Z

HanKFranK
(User)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:21 AM
Re: rita delivers

wherever they've moved evacuees i'd expect they're not in a flood zone. i'd expect that emergency planners are well prepared for inland flooding... hopefully they'll keep things shut down if severe flooding starts occurring later this upcoming week. can't have people running around like business as usual when a major flood event is underway...
speaking of flooding, large parts of cameron parish ought to be underwater at this point (aside from the large parts that are usually underwater in that tangle of bayous). orange, port arthur, and the outlying areas of lake charles are likely to see concentrated surge damage. for the folks who didn't leave cameron parish or the low parts of jefferson and orange counties in texas... i just hope they've got higher ground to escape to. after katrina i'm sure that only the most stubborn or cuckoo are left. i mean come on, they just had a hurricane kill hundreds of people in their state less than a month ago...
HF 0721z24september

HanKFranK
(User)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:23 AM
Re: rita delivers

it looks like those two recon planes have their instrumentation calibrated just a little different... but whats a millibar or a couple of knots when you get down to it?
HF 0723z24september

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:28 AM
Re: rita delivers

Each one of these storms, it always gets worse. I find out that I know people in the hardest hit regions, and that just brings it that much closer to home. Seriously, as a meteorologist, I feel both pride and regret in what I do. I feel pride in that I know what I know and can help others with that information; I feel regret in what these storms actually bring to an area. It's a quandry we all deal with at times.

Nevertheless, Rita is making landfall. The winds never came back up, largely because it never really truly completed an eyewall cycle, jumping from one right into another. The inner southern eyewall is gone, leaving an outer southern eyewall that won't come in until sunrise. The storm is likely to sit in the ArkLaTex for some period of time, bringing lots of rain from areas between Little Rock, Paris, Ft. Smith, and even Jackson to Baton Rouge, Lafayette, and New Orleans. Things took a turn for the worse on the east side of NOLA this afternoon, and this certainly isn't going to help.

A few minor things worth watching out in the Atlantic tonight, but nothing of imminent concern. Rita's coming ashore, thankfully much weaker than expected, and once the storm is gone...good riddance.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:30 AM
Re: rita delivers

lost lake charles radar... winds should of been around 65kts or so at radar site...

KLCH radar

Allison
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:32 AM
Re: rita delivers

The station at Sabine is still reporting from the western eyewall...

82MPH sustained winds and 99MPH gusts as of 2:00 A.M...


also, radar shows NW movement currently... looks like she'll pass right over Sabine Lake.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:40 AM
Re: rita delivers

espect landfall by NHC at any moment now... they lost KLCH radar... must use houston.... based on that radar.... center of eye coming ashore now....

HanKFranK
(User)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:41 AM
Re: rita delivers

center of the eye should be coming onshore in the next few minutes between johnsons bayou and the sabine pass. central pressure is lower than ivan last september by a couple of mb. structure of the storm and history make it compare quite well with ivan in that sense. impact should be on par, but the worst is limited to the sparsely populated cameron parish coastline.. as somewhat of a buffer to lake charles and the cluster of towns around beaumont in texas.
HF 0740z24september

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:42 AM
Re: rita delivers

it's offical from NHC... just reported

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:42 AM
Re: rita delivers

LCH radar is back... it is probably having some transmission delays at times. Looks like the center is now onshore.

nate77
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:43 AM
Re: rita delivers

Offical made landfall..

Near LA-TEXAS BORDER.

nate77
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:46 AM
Re: rita delivers

Rick Sanchez of CNN is reporting that building are falling apart in Lake Charles.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:47 AM
Re: rita delivers

landfall pic i have


http://stormhunter7.tripod.com/landfallrita.png

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:49 AM
Re: rita delivers

later rita, say goodbye to GOM..... (for now?)

URNT12 KNHC 240740
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/07:25:20Z
B. 29 deg 40 min N
093 deg 41 min W
C. 700 mb 2555 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 186 deg 111 kt
G. 100 deg 016 nm
H. 937 mb
I. 16 C/ 3046 m
J. 18 C/ 3045 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. OPEN SOUTH
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF309 2518A RITA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 111 KT E QUAD 07:20:30 Z
EYE PRESENTATION ON RADAR DETERIORATING

BTfromAZ
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:52 AM
Re: rita delivers

Haven't checked the radar feed myself but CNN is reporting the Weather Service radar in Lake Charles is down and they can't communicate any longer with their reporter there.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:52 AM
Re: rita delivers

It is hard watching the radar when you know what is happening on the ground. Katrina was worse for me knowing my brother was out in the storm rescuing people in the ATV until the surge hit.

Startiing about 0700Z (2am CDT) on the Lake Charles radar you can see the eye coming ashore between Sabine and Constance Beach. Looks like it came in with the west side of the eyewall just touching the TX/LA border, looks to be heading up the state line. NHC couldn't have called this one better, once again (nothing has been said though about the circulation possibly going back out into the Gulf). Looking like the center of the eye making landfall like 2:45am. For a minute I thought the Lake Chas radar was gone, but it came back. Lake Charles the largest community getting the bit hit, also Lafayette, and all those little coastal communities up to about 15 mi inland, to the east of the eye, probably devastated. Wondering how far to the east the coast took a hard hit; I would think all the way to Plaquemines Parish, although I'm kind of hoping it wasn't that bad east of Pecan Island. What a difference for this hurricane, having the major population centers inland; still very sad, especially because now the remaining part of the LA coast getting a direct hit, when they had more than they already needed to deal with from Katrina. Places like Grand Isle getting a pretty hefty hit twice in a row, too.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:57 AM
Re: rita delivers

The center of Rita is officially inland, only to weaken yet bring some really bad damage to W Louisiana/E Texas. Band setting up to the east of the storm will keep Lafayette and the Atchafalaya basin under the gun through the morning hours. Slow movement of the storm is going to result in some incredible rainfall totals and I can only hope people are far enough inland and at high enough altitude to be able to escape the inevitable flood waters, whether along the coast or due to rains.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 04:04 AM
Re: rita delivers

Cloud tops on the IR down to around -85C. That's about as cold as you'll ever see.

Beaumont reported sustained winds of 53 knots with gusts to 80 knots about 10 minutes ago, with a pressure of 956 mb. Hopefully everyone down there is out of harm's way.

BTfromAZ
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 04:10 AM
Re: rita delivers

CNN: 10 inches of rain in parts of Lake Charles already and coming down at 3-4 inches per hour.

BabyCat
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 24 2005 04:12 AM
Re: rita delivers

I wonder if the truck on that roof top will make it through. I keep expecting to see it slide away.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 04:13 AM
Lake Charles NWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
300 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...FIRST EXPERIENCE IN A HURRICANE FOR THIS ILLINOIS BOY.
PARTICULARLY MISSING HOME RIGHT NOW. SOUNDS AS IF A 747 IS SITTING UPON THE ROOF REVVING ITS ENGINES. WIND EQUIPMENT HAS FAILED HERE BUT BELIEVE WE ARE NOW SEEING WINDS POSSIBLY IN A 70 TO 90 KNOT RANGE HERE AT LAKE CHARLES.
NOS GAUGE AT CALCASIEU PASS REPORTED A
GUST TO 112 MPH...AND THEN FAILED. ANTICIPATING A 15 TO 20 FOOT STORM SURGE AND UNSURE AT THIS TIME IF THIS WILL IMPACT US. WAS JUST INFORMED THAT AIRPORT TERMINAL NEXT TO OFFICE HAS COLLAPSED.
JUST HAD A BRIEF COMMS FAILURE BUT NOW BACK UP. UNFORTUNATELY...SINCE WE ARE NOW IN A DIAL BACKUP MODE...WILL BE UNABLE TO UPDATE GRIDS AND WILL TURN THIS RESPONSIBILITY OVER TO OUR CURRENT BACKUP OFFICE SAN ANTONIO.
WE WILL MAINTAIN SHORT-TERM RESPONSIBILITY...NOWCASTS...HLS'S...TAFS...WARNINGS...AS LONG AS WE HOLD TOGETHER.

RITA CURRENTLY MOVING ONSHORE OVER EXTREME SOUTHWEST CAMERON PARISH
ON A NORTH NORTHWEST TRACK...AND RIGHT ON WITH NHC FORECAST TRACK.
SYSTEM PROGGED TO CONTINUE GENERAL MOTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS.

INPORTANT TO NOTE THAT LATEST MODELS INDICATING SYSTEM WILL NOT STALL ACROSS REGION...THUS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS GOING INTO THE NEW WEEK. JUST A BIT OF GOOD NEWS TO END ON.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LCH/AFDLCH

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 04:15 AM
Re: rita delivers

Well looks like 2:42 was the last radar from Lake Charles. Looks like that is when they got hit with a band of strong convection. So now you're left to hope that the worst that happened was that their instrumentation blew down or their generator failed.


Overall it seems as though many of the strongest winds are not making it to the ground in the areas where reporters are live. Does it seem that way to any of you as well?

The difference between Rita and Katrina at landfall seems considerable. Unfortunately NOLA had no time to repair those canal walls (they'll have to be redesigned), so they took a hit with flooding again.

BTfromAZ
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 04:15 AM
Re: rita delivers

CNN: Sherriff in Lake Charles reporting sustained winds of 100mph

Allison
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 24 2005 04:17 AM
Re: rita delivers

KLVI radio in Beaumont has some sort of internet feed... it's not great, and the official information they're giving seems to be about 30-60 minutes behind, but it seems to be the internet feed nearest to the center of the storm.... right now, people are calling in with their observations and damage reports....

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 04:18 AM
Re: rita delivers

OTHER MARINE REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES, LA
210 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

MARINE OBSERVATIONS AT 2 AM,

AT CALCASIEU PASS AT CAMERON JETTY, THE TIDE LEVEL IS 5.02 FEET WHICH IS 2.83 FEET ABOVE TIDE TABLE LEVELS. THE WIND IS OUT OF THE EAST AT 64 KNOTS GUSTING TO 88 KNOTS.
THE AIR TEMPERATURE IS 80 DEGREES.
THE WATER TEMPERATURE IS 82 DEGREES.

AT SABINE PASS COAST GUARD STATION, THE TIDE LEVEL IS 6.35 FEET WHICH IS 4.41 FEET ABOVE TIDE TABLE LEVELS,
THE AIR TEMPERATURE IS MISSING
AND THE WATER TEMPERATURE IS MISSING.

Allison
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 24 2005 04:37 AM
Re: rita delivers


There's interesting water level data from the stations at Morgan's Point and Eagle Point in Galveston Bay... water is obviously being pushed out of the bay...

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 04:51 AM
Re: Lake Charles NWS

Quote:

ANTICIPATING A 15 TO 20 FOOT STORM SURGE AND UNSURE AT THIS TIME IF THIS WILL IMPACT US. WAS JUST INFORMED THAT AIRPORT TERMINAL NEXT TO OFFICE HAS COLLAPSED.


!!! The airport at Lake Charles is only 10-12 ft above sea level and is bordered on the E and W by two canals or tributaries to the main waterway. Is this where the NWS is located?

Edit -- note the 08:51Z radar image from Houston/Galveston radar shows the concentric eyewalls very well, as well as the area of intense convection that is to the NE of the inner eyewall.

Also -- there is one feeder band that has been basically sitting in the same position for a couple of hours now, going over the western shore of Lake Ponchatrain. This will be dumping rain in the lake as well as pummeling Grand Isle (southernmost tip of Jefferson County) with onshore wind and water for a very long time.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 05:14 AM
Re: Lake Charles NWS

Quote:

!!! The airport at Lake Charles is only 10-12 ft above sea level and is bordered on the E and W by two canals or tributaries to the main waterway. Is this where the NWS is located?



I checked their web page but they don't list anything other than "being at the Lake Charles Airport".
I hope that the elevation is enough to keep them dry.

edit: I found it. At 30.1N/ 93.2W. About 5 mi NE of the Northern end of Calcasieu Lake. And not surronded by water.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 05:30 AM
Recon

Both Recon planes have departed Rita and are currently near the MS Coast.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 05:34 AM
Rita

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005 (edited~danielw)

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D RADARS INDICATE THAT RITA MADE LANDFALL JUST EAST OF SABINE PASS ABOUT 0730Z WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF NEAR 105 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 937 MB.

SINCE LANDFALL...THE CONVECTION IN THE REMAINS OF THE NORTHWEST EYEWALL HAS BECOME QUITE INTENSE...POSSIBLY DUE TO INCREASED FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE OVER LAND.

OVERALLL...RITA SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM IN 18-24 HR AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN 36 HR. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE IS UNLIKELY TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BEFORE 120 HR. THIS...COMBINED WITH THE FORECAST SLOW MOTION...WILL CONTINUE A THREAT FOR VERY HEAVY RAINS LONG AFTER THE WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/240855.shtml

Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 24 2005 05:42 AM
Re: Rita

Any reports of the storm surge near Galveston? The wind should push the water out, I think.

Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 05:53 AM
Re: Rita

In all my dealings with hurricanes any time I was on the west side of a storm we NEVER got any significant type of surge.... north winds always blew the water out, not in.... I would expect the same thing to happen in Galvaston... even for Georges in 98 when we had the eye sit over us in Biloxi for four hours the surge in my part of town was insignificant... 20 miles to the east Pascagoula was dealing with a 12 foot surge... Ivan no surge, Dennis no surge... all on the west side of the storm... hard for the water to rise when you have hurricane force winds blowing it out...

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 06:01 AM
Re: Rita

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 228 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 edited.....

..STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS WATER LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RECEDING IN THE UPPER PORTION OF GALVESTON BAY AS STRONG OFFSHORE WINDS HAVE PUSHED THE WATER BACK SOUTHWARD.

REACHES UP NEAR THE HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL AND EAGLE POINT COULD FALL AS MUCH AS 4 TO 5 FEET BELOW NORMAL. THIS WILL CAUSE WATER TO PILE UP ACROSS BAYSIDE LOCATIONS OF GALVESTON ISLAND AND BOLIVAR PENINSULA AS THE WINDS EVENTUALLY TURN MORE WESTWARD.

SURGE MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A 4 TO 5 FOOT SURGE BEING TRAPPED IN THE BAY SIDE PORTION OF EASTERN GALVESTON ISLAND...ALONG THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA... COUPLED WITH A 2 FOOT HIGH TIDE AT 2 AM...WATER LEVELS WILL BE 6 TO 7 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER.

FURTHER WEST ALONG GALVESTON ISLAND...ALONG THE NORTH FACING BAY SHORES...WATERS LEVELS SHOULD BE 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW WATER...
COUPLED WITH A 1 TO 2 FOOT HIGH TIDE AT 430 AM. THIS FLOODING WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.
THE GULF WATERS HAVE ALREADY DRASTICALLY RECEDED IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG NORTH WINDS PUSHING WATER FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS EVENING.
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE MOST SEVERE SURGE IMPACTS WOULD BE MAINLY EAST OF GILCHRIST.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 06:06 AM
Re: Rita

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 450 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 edited....

ONSHORE FLOW IS STILL SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY MAINTAINING COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.
TIDE GUAGES IN OCEAN SPRINGS SHOWS 3.5 TO 4 FEET...
IN GRAND ISLE TIDES ARE 5 FEET AND IN THE MIDDLE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN TIDES WERE 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 06:10 AM
Re: Rita

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 448 AM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005 edited...

..STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES AND CAMERON AND CALCASIEU PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGES OF 15 TO 20 FEET LIKELY ONGOING IN AREAS ALONG THE COAST. THIS STORM SURGE WILL ALSO LIKELY COME OVER THE TOP OF THE SEA WALL AROUND PORT ARTHUR TEXAS.

LOW LYING AREAS IN BEAUMONT AND LAKE CHARLES COULD SEE UP TO 4 FEET OF STORM SURGE ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVERS AND BAYOUS AND THEIR TRIBUTARIES.

VERMILION PARISH...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 FEET IS LIKELY ONGOING. THIS WILL FLOOD LAND AROUND PECAN ISLAND AND INTRACOASTAL CITY...WHERE SURGE WAS BATTERING THE TOWN EARLIER FRIDAY EVENING. SECTIONS OF DELCAMBRE WILL BE UNDER WATER.

IBERIA AND ST. MARY PARISHES...MAXIMUM STORM SURGE BETWEEN 6 AND 10 FEET IS LIKELY ONGOING. THIS WILL FLOOD SECTIONS OF CYPREMORT POINT AND BURNS POINT...AND LOW-LYING AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 90 FROM FRANKLIN TO MORGAN CITY.

I apologize for the lengthy posts. These are the updated Hurricane Local Statements from the affected areas. Apparently, due to communication problems and other problems, no reports of damage or surge have been received by the NWS offices.~danielw

Multi-Decadal Signal
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 24 2005 06:24 AM
Re: Rita

"I apologize for the lengthy posts. These are the updated Hurricane Local Statements from the affected areas. Apparently, due to communication problems and other problems, no reports of damage or surge have been received by the NWS offices.~danielw"
Given the yeoman-like service you have contributed to this site for hours on end and on many days, the last thing in the world that you should have on your mind is the thought that you have need to apologize to us. We here are all greatly in your debt for your service to us.

collegemom
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 07:55 AM
Re: Rita

Central Arkansas here. Skies heavy clouds but no rainfall yet. Temp has dropped to 70 with a slight intermittent breeze--a very welcome relief. Calls for 1-4" of rain this afternoon but I can't find anything on how fast. Late summer here always means the ground is like virtual concrete. Storms that dump fast and heavy mean serious issues throughout the state. Can anyone steer me to helpful info?

nate77
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 08:50 AM
Re: Rita

very surprised this sit is soo slow on this storm..

been up watching this all night, early morning assesment that alot of the major cities like NO, Houston, Galveston esacped the damage.

collegemom
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 09:35 AM
Re: Rita

I hear that. Solid cloud cover and steady breeze here. I sure hope the 100's are gone for the year......

pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 24 2005 09:38 AM
Re: Rita

I see the Gfdl and another model are bringing Rita back into the Gulf south of Alabama...could this be like Ivan last year, regenerating again?

hurricane expert
(Really Not an Expert)
Sat Sep 24 2005 10:29 AM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

And what intersting that if it does regenerate into a storm again florida would possibley deal with this storm by next week.

wiley
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 24 2005 10:49 AM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

Speaking of which, NWS says there's still a chance for Phillippe to reform. If so, where is it going and isn't it odd for a storm to sit for so long, dissipate, then go north and reform over what i assume is colder water???

TheSkyGuy-in-OZ
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 24 2005 11:21 AM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

Hi, just wondering were everybody is? during katrina's landfall the place was packed with reports and info, but with Rita hardly any news?
anyway i hope all are well and Rita has not done to much loss of life.
A quick question:
If Rita or Phillippe redevelop will they be renamed like the TD that was before Katrina?
thanks

Stay Safe, Stay Smart, Leave before the storm.

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 24 2005 11:23 AM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

I hope those models are just bored because Rita has lost her figure!

collegemom
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 11:26 AM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

Anybody on near Nachadoches? I understand she just went over taking roofs in town. Was talking to my Dad's USNA roommate from '51 when the phones went dead.

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 24 2005 11:28 AM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

I can tell you that when the situation becomes serious or catastrophic those of us who have nothing intelligent to add, back off to give the space to people who can provide guidance, or need to get guidance. When the storm is approaching from a safe location, we who have nothing important to add will conversate about the storm in order to glean facts in general about the weather. For those who are being directly affected by the storm, they either have no internet service or are protecting their families. It is not lack of interest. I have read every single post since this storm became threatening to anyone, but have posted very little. And, you can see above, I have very little to contribute.

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 11:40 AM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

There's just not that much information to be had with Rita yet. Many of the hardest hit areas from the storm are likely without any means of communication, while the slow motion of the storm is keeping it unsafe for people to head out into those areas and see what has occurred. Coupled with an overnight landfall, keeping many awake into the early morning hours following the storm, there's just not going to be a lot of news coming out right now. It'll trickle out through the day today but really start to come out on Sunday, once the storm is a bit further away and more people get into the hardest hit areas.

TheSkyGuy-in-OZ
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 24 2005 11:57 AM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

thanks, GuppieGrouper
I thort as much, but it was much different thro' Katrina
as this is my only source of information on this storm, I was hoping for some reports.
but it is much more important that people help each other over there (I can wait)
Hopefully this is your last big one this year
we have our season coming up (its reported to be a big one too)

Best of luck from OZ

HanKFranK
(User)
Sat Sep 24 2005 12:29 PM
onward then?

center is inland near jasper, tx right now. should be up near marshall as a a tropical storm late this afternoon, and weakening to a depression near texarkana overnight. system keeps moving and the models stalling/looping have shifted more eastward, so now it's a slow east jog to ms. the potential for it to move back out into the gulf is advertised by some models, but their newer reluctance to turn it back has me thinking it's inland to stay. one note is how the media has already reported that new orleans got off better than expected... that they hardly got the rain they'd expected. of course, anybody up on current events will notice that rita is still dumping a lot of rain and should get new orleans wet intermittently through the next few days. the tandem surge/heavy rainfall threat appears low, so they're right in at least that respect... but the threat of more trouble for new orleans hasn't gone away. they called the storm a bust just a little early on august 29th; hopefully they aren't going to repeat the mistake less than a month later.
kinda wondering if philippe will be back. the swirl from it has been looped around inside the broader low that 'absorbed' it, but it's about as absorbed as a rock would be in your stomach. if it serves as the main cell around which a tropical system generates out there, i'd consider it a regeneration of philippe.. though not sure what the nhc would call it. whole mess is moving northeast now.
wave out near 33w appears to be the only other game in town. it won't develop anything for a couple more days if at all, so we're probably down to tracking a decaying rita for the weekend. enjoy the peace and quiet.. mjo is switched 'on' right now and as soon as the basin shear ticks down a notch in places we'll see some more action.
HF 1629z24september

ssd has a too weak rating on the 33w wave/low. still probably won't do anyting before monday. -HF

JMII
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 24 2005 12:36 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

Quote:

as this is my only source of information on this storm, I was hoping for some reports.



http://www.click2houston.com has a live video stream up, but since Houston was spared from a direct impact there coverage right now is more focused on traffic jams resulting from people trying to get back into the city (no gas). Wind is still gusting to around 40 mph in Port Authur TX where the eye came ashore, combined that with the number of trees down and they simply can't get into the most damaged areas yet. Lake Charles, LA took a hard hit, check the main news sites like CNN, MSNBC, FoxNews, ect. Seems the coastal flooding (storm surge) is not as bad as first feared, it's mostly wind damage so far.

bobbutts
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:27 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

I think the other thing is that the coastline of LA most affected is sparsely populated to start and probably close to fully evacuated which is a big difference from the areas East of Katrina's landfall. For Rita most of the media was on the west of the landfall location but for Katrina there was coverage on both sides too.

I think it's safe to say that there is lots of wind damage in a big area. Surge, especially well inland at low elevation (where the people are) is the big question right now I guess. It was forecast to be high, but I haven't seen info to support or discount that yet.

bobbutts
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:42 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

Just saw the Mayor of Sulphur LA on TWC say that he was not aware of any major surge flooding so that's good news.. Flying around the area east of Lake Charles and south of I-10 in google earth it pretty much appears to be swamps and farms all the way to the coast. Makes me a little more optimistic about the surge impacts.

BabyCat
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:54 PM
Texas Oil and Gas Assoc.

Texas Oil and Gas Association just came on CBS and asked that people NOT try to return to Houston yet. They said there is a shortage of gas along the evacuation corridors. Since they are running supplies out of Corpus right now, the priority is for emergency vehicles.

Allison
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 24 2005 01:59 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border


KLVI radio in Beaumont has a live internet feed... they occasionally switch to KTRH in Houston, but they are still on directly from Beaumont too...

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 24 2005 03:15 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

It is not "swamps and farms."

Go to mapquest and zoom in. There are lots of tiny communities throughout the area, which is lowlands with lakes and bayous.

Cameron Parish alone is home to about 10,000 people and approximately 1/3 of its land is water. About 13,000 people come to visit for the annual Cajun festival, and about 20,000 come per month to the wildlife refuges there, in much the same way that many go to the Boundary Waters Canoe Area in MN.

Vermillion Parish just to the east has over 50,000 people.

News reports say that Terrebone Parish took 7 to 8 feet of water.

Water is continuing to rise in Lake Charles.

From Steve Gregory's blog: " we are again seeing 'initial media' reports of not so bad -- only to find out hours later that there was and is extremely bad damage -- but the media just wasn't there. Overall -- it appears this storm produced the same type and scope of damage that IVAN did last year "

He also said that as of 11:30am a strong feeder band was still producing gusts of hurricane strength to the east of Lafayette all the way down to Grand Isle (which is the tip of Jefferson Parish). Since then it appears this band has moved north and is over Jackson MS.

ralphfl
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 24 2005 04:16 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

well what was the offical winds at landfall? was it 120? or did they downgrade it before land? im glad there was not too much damage but God be with the ones who lost there homes and loved ones.

oil trader
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 24 2005 04:29 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

Fortunately Rita was not Katrina.

But just to make some comparison; would anyone be so kind to explain me the similarities and differences between Rita (2005) and Ivan (2004) about wind speed, track speed, possible damages aftermath and so on?

BTfromAZ
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 04:36 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

CNN is interviewing officials in Abbeville who are describing the rescue of hundreds or "up to 1000" people from homes in marshy land to the south. The Mayor of Abbeville said, at one point, that the marshes normally extending to the Gulf "look like the Gulf of Mexico" and one person described a 2-story house being under water to its roofline.

I have not heard any reports from Cameron. Has anyone? Until all these smaller communities are accounted for, either by communication with locals or visits by rescuers, we won't know the real story of Rita in my opinion.

BabyCat
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 24 2005 04:49 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

Check the blogs at WWLTV.com and NOLA.com for local information. I think I recall seeing information re: Cameron but have read so much lately.
There is also a weather forum at WWLTV that is good.
Hope this helps.

Dawn
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 24 2005 06:04 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

There are models suggesting that Rita will move back in the Gulf if not picked up by the Cold Front - also saying that a piece may break off with the cold front some going north and the piece or entire system moving back in the Gulf.

Clark what is your take on this?

Would like any mod or met to give their take on this.

Thank You

Clark
(Meteorologist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 06:43 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

It's possible, but it's not what we're looking for right now. An area of lower pressure may head down there, but it is debateable as to whether or not it is Rita or just the tail end of a cold front projected to slide through the eastern US this week. Given the forcing behind it all, (re)development would be unlikely in the short term; it'd have to stick out there for awhile.

collegemom
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 07:10 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

Light sprinkle started about 5:25. Downpour 5 minutes later with sighted rotation at 5:40. Clearly visible and traveling west rotating to the north.

collegemom
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 07:42 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

It's been 50 minutes since the sirens stopped. Wow what rain we've had in the last hour. I took a single stem vase outside and put it on the picnic table as a gauge. The wind comes from the east then shifts from the west . It's gonna be a long night--I knew there was a reason I slept from 4pm Friday until 2 am this morning.

Sheeper
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 08:26 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

no doubt. Stay dry, stay safe.

I'm heading back to Mississippi later in the week continuing to work some relief efforts. This time i'm bringing in a medical team that is preparing for long-term followup. Anyone here who knows of firm needs or groups that could use this team, send me a private message. The medical team's mission is to support those that may be "foregotten".

meanwhile, i'll be hoping the florida east coast stays clear for the rest of this season!

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 08:26 PM
Rita and cool front

Several of the MS and LA NWS Offices have mentioned this 'cool' front in their afternoon Area Forecast Discussions.
My understanding from reading the AFDs is that the front should push Rita's remnants toward the NE. Allowing for cool and drier air to take hold. I saw temps into the 50s and 60s, later in the week, for the Jackson,MS forecast area.
I like Clark's explanation better.

edit: I'll throw this snippet in for emphasis on the cool front.
Reference to "Katrina"...should be "Rita".
The mind plays tricks on METS too!

...WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW TREND OF GFS TO LIFT REMNANTS OF KATRINA GRADUALLY TO THE NE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. MAINTAINED HIGHER POPS CENTRAL AND ERN ZONES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NEAR THE MS RIVER. HOWEVER INCREASED MOS POPS WRN ZONES SLIGHTLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF SPEED OF SYSTEM...KEEPING THIS AREA IN HIGH END CHANCE CATEGORY. MODELS FALLING INTO CONSENSUS THAT UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD SHIFT MONDAY WITH NWLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS REDUCING PRECIP CHANCES FROM THE WEST. WILL DECREASE MOS POPS SLIGHTLY FOR WRN ZONES BY THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK....

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 09:03 PM
SE TX and SW Louisiana Update

Quote:

I have not heard any reports from Cameron. Has anyone? Until all these smaller communities are accounted for, either by communication with locals or visits by rescuers, we won't know the real story of Rita in my opinion.



You may have more up to data info than I do.
CNN was reporting that the roads/ highway into Cameron were under water and it would be a while before anyone could get in.
My hope is, that everyone got out of there in response to the evacuation request. Otherwise they will be like the 1000 or more in Vermillion Parish that are having to be rescued from rooftops.
Vermillion Parish road equipment was under water and they weren't sure if it would be usable after the water receded.
I'm still looking for more recent data.
WWL 870 AM and 740 AM (KTRK??) in Houston are both clear channel, high power radio stations.
1200 WOAI in San Antonio is also a clear channel station and may have SE TX information.

To those wishing to return to their homes in the Houston, Beaumont, Lake Charles areas.
The Officials in those areas are asking that you delay your return until at least Monday.
There are areas with limited fuel supplies. The fuel supply that is there will be dedicated to emergency personnel and vehicles, and medical personnel required in the area.
If you run out of fuel, enroute to your home, you may become stranded...This is from the Mayor of Houston,TX.
Areas of Cameron, Calcasieu and Vermillion Parishes in SW LA are still underwater and non-accessable.

bobbutts
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 09:32 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

Quote:

It is not "swamps and farms."



Yeah looking deeper I'm definately wrong about that. I picked out some of the counties most likely to be affected.

Data from http://county-map.digital-topo-maps.com/louisiana.shtml

Coast
Parish Population
Cameron Parish LA 9,991
Vermilion Parish LA 53,807
Iberia Parish LA 73,266
St. Mary Parish LA 53,500
Terrebonne Parish LA 104,503
Lafourche Parish LA 89,974

Inland
Calcasieu Parish LA 183,577
Jefferson Davis Parish 31,435
Lafayette Parish LA 90,503
Acadia Parish LA 58,861
St. Martin Parish LA 48,583
Assumption Parish LA 23,388

misunderestimator
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 24 2005 09:33 PM
Let's give NHC their props

Long time lurker - first time poster.
It's been a great education listening to the opinions (sometimes loudly voiced) on this site over the course of Rita's journey (so far). It's really given me an appreciation for the difficulty of predicting these intense forces of nature.

Having said that, I am amazed at how good the NHC does in predicting these storms. Go to the archives for Rita and Katrina

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/KATRINA_graphics.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/RITA_graphics.shtml

you'll see that 3 days ago, the eventual landfall site was well within the 3-day cone. 5 days ago, it was well within the 5 day cone. The same is true for the Katrina archive. NO was within the 5 day and 3 day cones even though the track was considerably off at that time.

It reminds us that the actual path is almost impossible to predict, but their probability estimates are pretty darn good.
It's pretty simple, if you are in the cone, you better pay attention!

So, kudos to NHC!! (as a side note, the attack on NHC graphics by accu that someone linked to earlier made me mad enough that I will never go back to that site).

Best of luck to all those affected by the storm.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 09:51 PM
Extended Models

Mention of another tropical entity for the latter part of the week. I have inserted the full word in ( ) where applcable to the discussion.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 443 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2005 edited~danielw

VALID 12Z WED SEP 28 2005 - 12Z SAT OCT 01 2005

...ON DAYS 6/FRI AND 7/SAT...THE TROP WAVE PASSING THRU FL IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE NOON 09/23 COORD CALL WITH TPC. IF THE DAY 7/SAT MEDR(medium range model) THINKING IN THE E PANS OUT...THE SYS WILL ENCOUNTER SHEAR AS IT PASSES THRU FL AND ENTERS THE GOMEX. THE 00Z ECMWF CARRIES A LOW WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER TIMING EWD(??) THRU THE CARIBBEAN AT THAT TIME...SO THEIR IS STILL SUPPORT IN THE PREFFERED OP MODELS FOR THE SYS.

http://kamala.cod.edu/HPC/latest.fxus02.KWNH.html

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 10:01 PM
SW LA Roads

This may be off topic. So I'll copy the post to the Disaster Forum. In case it's removed.

This is a link to the current road closures in Louisiana.
http://www.lsp.org/roadandincident.nsf/$ViewAll?OpenView

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 10:46 PM
Rita now a Tropical Depression

TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
10 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2005

...RITA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION BUT REMAINS A HEAVY RAIN PRODUCER...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 40 MILES NORTH OF SHREVEPORT LOUISIANA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 10 MPH. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 24 2005 11:05 PM
Rita

In addition to the 24 fatalities, nursing home evacuees, that occured in TX.
A tornado spawned by Rita has resulted in a fatality near Belzoni, MS.
The tornado was reported to NWS offices around 2:40PM CDT, and the fatality was reported around 3:13PM CDT. Report also lists extensive damage to 2 subdivisions near Belzoni, and at the Jockey Manufacturing Plant also in Belzoni.
As of 9:06PM CDT, the Storm Prediction Center had received reports of 17 tornadoes in MS and AR.

CoalCracker
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 11:10 PM
Re: Extended Models

DW,

Is the tropical entity mentioned in the HPC discussion the wave located approx 18N/37W which the NHC has flagged as an area of possible development or something else I'm not seeing? Somebody needs to tell Mother Nature to take a couple of weeks off. Let's see--only 67 days till 1 December--but who's counting.

BTfromAZ
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 24 2005 11:31 PM
Re: Rita

Quote:

In addition to the 24 fatalities, nursing home evacuees, that occured in TX.
A tornado spawned by Rita has resulted in a fatality



Yes, I must admit I became rather annoyed while watching Lou Dobbs this afternoon as he kept insisting that NO DEATHS had been reported so far as a result of this storm. Not only was he forgetting about those poor people on the bus, but it seems to me fairly certain that when all affected communities have been accounted for, there will be others. Declaring the death count "zero" is not only wrong, even ignoring the bus incident it is way premature.

Sportsfreak1989s
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 24 2005 11:32 PM
Re: Extended Models

Well I am from the South-West part of Lafayette Parish and right now I am very lucky to have power. Last night at about 3:30 AM we were getting around 65-75 MPH (Gusting at about 90) sustained winds with a wall of water being hammered into the east side of the house. We lost power at about 8:30 PM and got them back around 5:00 PM the next day. It was a very interesting night to say the least. We have multiple branches down in our yard with one really huge branch that figured to go ahead and spare our house and fall oppisite ways, thankfully. Unfortunately other areas don't have power in Lafayette much less west of us either. I hope everyone that got pounded by this hurricane is alright and god bless all.

-ANDY

mojorox
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Sep 24 2005 11:45 PM
Re: Extended Models

I just got back yesterday evening from Ocean Springs, Ms. I went with my sis to sift through the rubble of her house. We camped in her yard for a week and she had a boat that no one recognized wedged between her house and the neighbors.

The storm surge had gone over and through her house which is on a street in between two bayous. The street was filled with rubble and furniture and smelt of rotting meat from the refridgerators strewn everywhere.

We caught the first squall lines of Rita on Thurs when we broke camp in the wind and rain. I hope she does not dump any more rain there. When we left the water was coming up the seawall in her back yard.

HanKFranK
(User)
Sat Sep 24 2005 11:56 PM
ignoring the fat lady

the media types like to sound authoritative whether they really know what they're talking about or not. i don't think lou dobbs has thoroughly checked through what is left down in cameron or vermillion parishes... or has the foggiest how many more tornadoes will form in the lower missisippi valley this evening (heck of a lot of warnings last two hours). how many of y'all remember the newsies in the french quarter the evening after katrina hit declaring new orleans saved and open for business? that turned out a little wrong, didn't it?
rita's weakening remnant isn't going to stop at texarkana as earlier thought.. right now is slowly decelerating as it moves into sw arkansas. official takes it east across the state and then southward in missisippi. it may just wash out as a frontal boundary approaches, or do the much-advertised jaunt back towards the gulf. there isn't a whole lot of confidence in any of that because of the weak currents and now shallow system.
philippe got deemed history last night, but it's low-level swirl has remained discrete inside of the larger disturbance and has now swung back into the convergence line, with deep convection and probably some slight reintensification. system as a whole actually looks like one of the best candidates for a subtropical storm that i've seen in a while. bet is that nhc just mentions it in the TWO for the next couple of days as it remains steady-state. the wave out near 35w is under a good bit of southerly shear, which probably won't improve a whole lot. firing some deep convection in spite of that, but not very likely to do much. globals aren't getting the pattern down very well, so anything closer in over the next week or two is a lot trickier. the conditions to produce close-in development have shown up in numerous model runs, but not with the kind of consistency needed to really believe in them (though the gfs was showing a caribbean development for a couple of days, it's totally switched the pattern in later runs). best bet is a quiet week coming up, with maybe an odd invest struggling along.
HF 0356z25september

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 25 2005 12:12 AM
Re: ignoring the fat lady

I heard some of the radio news people saying the same thing this morning on the drive home.
Statements like. It was bad but not as bad as we thought. Lot of truth in that statement, but at the time it was said 630AM CDT. First light hadn't broken and the water was still piling up in LA and TX.
Hank refered to the New Orleans episode. Just before the levees began filling the city with water.
I hope the storm surge moves out after high tide. Because Rita dumped copious amounts of rain in her path. And most of it flows into the GOM via the rivers and bayous that were in storm surge.

MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sun Sep 25 2005 07:28 AM
Re: Rita weakens to a Tropical Depression

There is not much going on at the moment, so it's Slow for a bit, thankfully.

Catmando
(Registered User)
Sun Sep 25 2005 09:06 AM
Re: Rita weakens to a Tropical Depression

I saw on TWC a few minutes ago that Rita is moving faster then expected, and it being pushed back into the Gulf is very unlikely. I watched Joe Bastardi predict that yesterday and thought, "If Joe Bastardi is so sure that Rita will go back into the GOM, then I don't think it will happen." I'm fairly new to this board. Is it me, or does it seem you can take all the predictions J.B. gets RIGHT, put them in the butt of a gnat, and still have room to parellel park a winnebago?


"You don't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows."-Bob Dylan

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 25 2005 10:57 AM
Re: Rita weakens to a Tropical Depression

JB finally did get it right this year a storm did hin New Orelans. I don't buy into him, but I do find him entertaining.

Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Sep 25 2005 11:01 AM
Lull

From everything I saw on the 11pm and the 5am, it looks like the NHC was happy for a break. They gave minimal details on anything in the Atlantic, repeating the 5pm TWO at 11pm, then throwing everything that "might" develop in for the 5am TWO. Meanwhile, their 11pm discussion of Rita was minimal and then they passed it off to the HPC for the 5am. Similarly their TWD suffered last night. Maybe they had a post-hurricane "it's over" party?

Anyway, looks like we have a couple systems to watch: Remnants of Philippe that are now absorbed into a broader low. A wave that might develop eventually is near the Carribean. And a wave that looks promising to develop well out in the Atlantic. Wonder how long before the NHC's "break" is over and they have another Atlantic system to track? Given how the season's been going, I'd guess at most only a few days.

--RC

heynow
(Verified CFHC User)
Sun Sep 25 2005 11:27 AM
Heading back to Abbeville

Hey all. We are headed back to Abbeville today to check on our neighbors, homes and our flooded city. Hopefully things aren't too bad.

We rode Rita out in Baton Rouge, which suffered power outages but no major damage.

I will update once I get an internet connection.

Ricky

hope you guys are more than a few ft above sea level... or on an elevated foundation. here's to no water in house.... -HF

HURRICANELONNY
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 25 2005 12:08 PM
Re: Rita weakens to a Tropical Depression

No it's not Bastardi. That was the NHC official forecast that didn't verify. Thank God! Here in S.FL were getting a little tail end trof from Rita this morning. It rained and it wasn't suppose to. Were decades away from better forecasting. Some times the models get it right and some times they don't. Can't blame it on any one person and for those that do go to school and see if you can forecast better. I hope the season is over but something tells me we have one more big pulse coming. Hopefully no landfalls. :?:

HanKFranK
(User)
Sun Sep 25 2005 01:33 PM
last few days of september

rita may have been the last shot of the month. if anything else does develop it won't be until the middle or more likely late in the week. when things do liven back up it'll be trouble again, though.
first off rita is moving a lot faster than i'd expected... or the models were predicting just 24 hr ago. the shortwave has the storm right now, and may deposit it to drift further east, or more likely will just take it out off the northeast coast in a couple days as part of a front. it's keeping the rainfall totals down at sane levels and has actually made rita a boon inland as it's moistened areas that were suffering from drought.
the philippe/98L hybrid system is getting carried off and looking extratropical with time. the models were showing a piece escaping, but it looks like most everything that could develop is going out and leaving a little wake trough behind. the system near 35w continues to be sheared and has little/no model support to develop now.. most take it wnw/nw into the weakness in the ridge east of bermuda and lose it.
globals are getting a little more concerned for a mid/late week evolution in the nw caribbean. euro has been most consistent showing something there, while gfs has moved its feature over that way now, and most of the others are showing lower pressure there but no system. however, the pattern-pulse is setting up to want to kick something off there, with a fairly consistent strengthening of the ridge near the east coast, wedging inland next weekend into the week after. here's how i see the possibilites:
1) the system develops in the middle of the week and pushes more to the n, gets caught on the trough going by prior to the ridge buiding in, and goes out across florida and/or gets trapped off the east coast.
2) the system develops more slowly and misses the connection, drifts up into the gulf and turns w as the ridge builds above it. eventual threat to n mexico/s texas in 10 days or so.
3) the system develops very slowly and drifts into mexico, or remains quasi stationary.
4) the system doesn't develop.
the pattern pulse may try to kick off another system further east as well, as gfs is showing the front system winking out over the gulf (not likely under the paired upper ridge it's showing) and another brewing up right where it was a few days earlier. the culp for this first system is probably the wave currently in the se caribbean. it'll be near jamaica and probably looking more prominent in 3 days time or so. gfs is also showing more action out near the cv islands, but none of its quickbrew systems have developed all year, and it's almost october and past the traditional time for that part of the basin to work, so i'm discounting them until they get much further west. the caribbean and western atlantic are the source regions now.
HF 1733z25september

WeatherNut
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 25 2005 01:38 PM
Re: last few days of september

I dunno...that wave in the eastern caribbean is starting to look a little better organized...might not be a very long break...and most of the rules this season seem to be out the door for the most part

Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 25 2005 02:40 PM
Re: Rita weakens to a Tropical Depression

Yes, that's how I take JB. Entertaining. I truly believe that when tracking storms we need to get our information from as many souces as possible and then form our own opinions on where the storm is heading and what course of action to take.

It's really great to have a break in the action. Let's hope it stays this way for awhile.

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 25 2005 02:55 PM
Re: Rita weakens to a Tropical Depression

I was hoping someone was noticing the caribbean besides me. I am in Central Florida and we have not had a severe threat since last year for a hurricane, but everytime one starts to develop this year I wonder if it will be Tampa Bays turn for real. I am not panicked because I know I am as ready as any one person can be who lives less than 50 miles from the gulf. Going inland is not much further from the shore than I am already. We have seen all the predicted spots along the Gulf get slammed and so far we have been left out of the consequences.We have already practiced and we know not everyone will be able to leave that wants to leave and not everyone who is able to leave will want to leave. The biggest problem in this area are the endless mobile home parks that give a false impression of security. We have at least 6 more weeks of tropical storm season officially and unless Miami freezes over before then, we will get another storm. For those who wish that they could cool the gulf, the atlantic has nor'easters all the time and the winds and snow do damage as well. God Bless America and its Friends.

HanKFranK
(User)
Sun Sep 25 2005 04:04 PM
tornado time

alabama and mississippi are lit up like christmas trees with tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings. that stuff'll be over here tomorrow i guess. not all bad though: hasn't rained here since august 30th and we could use some.
HF 2004z25september

dave foster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 25 2005 05:31 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

Hi,

I followed Rita all the way on CNBC Europe and boy, was it tense. I was up 'til 4or 5 in the morning every night.
When Rita got into the Gulf as a cat 1 I thought 'here we go again'. And what a ride it was. I couldn't believe how fast she intensified - cat 1 to cat 5 in 26 hours.

I could see it heading for Texas/Louisiana and the oilfields and I thought there was going to be a total catastrope. Coming such a short time after Katrina I was praying that such a long trip across the gulf would take the steam out of her but, for what seemed an eternity, she continued to barrel on. Then 24 hours later she wobbled a bit, dropped to cat 4 and looked like she might be taking a turn to the north.

By Friday at 4am it seemed like Galveston and Huston might be spared and I breathed a sigh of relief. As she approached the coast she further decreased and looked like she might just take the ideal route (if you can call it that) between Galveston and New Orleans. And the rest is history.

I tracked the whole event on Google Earth from Rita entering the Gulf until she made landfall and gained Tropical Storm status.

Take a look at my website for the Google Earth enabling project files and the NHA maps.

http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com/index.htm

pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 25 2005 06:25 PM
Re: Rita weakens to a Tropical Depression

The NHC never had Rita coming back 9into the Gulf. That was Bastardi, Mr Entertainment> The NHC has been awesome all year. Accuweather, or "the Penn State University weather dept." has been awful! Why they put them on the news networks makes no sense to me. Even our local statuion here in Pcola shows the NHC track instead of Accuweather, who they subscribe to. They even had Ophelia crossing FL and hitting Gulf Shore AL.. How wrong can you be!

Just as a note of full disclosure, while AccuWeather is located in State College, PA, where Penn State is located, the two entities are separate and probably happy that way. -Clark

Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sun Sep 25 2005 06:33 PM
Re: Rita weakens to a Tropical Depression

While NHC never had it looping back into the gulf, about half the models did. About half the GFS ensemble runs still show that loop back, though all the others have picked up a decidedly eastward trend. There are presently 4 distinct tracks I'm seeing for the remnants of Rita:

1. Loop back to gulf.
2. Stall
3. Move east and out into the Atlantic over SC/NC/southern VA.
4. Move east and up into the New England area over PA.

It seems that the eastward track is panning out, but whether it takes the southerly or northerly one is something we will have to watch. Since I'm stuck between the two eastward tracks, I'm not sure whether either is better than the other. I'm just hoping we get rain from this thing - going on 3 weeks of no rain now.

--RC

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Sun Sep 25 2005 07:15 PM
Re: Rita weakens to a Tropical Depression

They have JB on because he's entertaining and always is a proponant of the worst case scenario. The media wants guys like this.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 25 2005 07:49 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

Your Katrina note on your website, which only discusses NOLA, reflects the problem with what many people like yourself see, by watching and reading the media from both the US and the UK; they did not cover the affected coastal areas, only NOLA, which is not on the coast.

NOLA was not the hardest hit area from Katrina; instead it was the three Louisiana parishes of Plaquemines, St Bernard, and SE portion of St Tammany, and three coastal counties of MS: Hancock, Harrison, and Jackson. This 200 miles of coastline which was completely destroyed received little press, and not a single headline, on any national news media, in the days and weeks afterwards. There were many people in these areas who could have been helped in the first three days after the hurricane, had word gotten out via the media about their plight.

There was a great deal of secondary damage in NOLA due to the failures in the canals of the level system. The media did not differentiate between canals and levees, consequently the failures were all perceived by the public to be levee failures. The canals will most definitely have to be redesigned. Most of the failures had areas where the walls lining the sides of the canals completely buckled. The levees of the city did pretty well even being overtopped by some of the high water, with the exception of the levee south of St Bernard on the MS River, which was hit from floodwaters from both sides. The levees just have to be upgraded because they are old, and raised a little to handle higher waters.

NOAA has taken high-resolution photographs of all of the affected areas from Katrina (as it does for every storm). Here is the link so you can see the large area of coastal damage that the media ignored. Start with the SE tip of LA and work your way around to Mobile AL. You'll be very surprised.

http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/katrina/KATRINA0000.HTM

LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 25 2005 07:50 PM
Re: Extended Models

Smell of rotting meat is bad.. even in Miami in some parts just to drive around areas w/o electric for 5 or 6 days.. people kept saying it smelled like dead animals. Was bad food from fridge and freezer rotting in the mid-day sun.. 95 in the shade.. and asthma and allergies were way up from dealing with all of that

may seem trivial but rotting meat stinks up a place in summer.. even rotting vegetation

and in SW Louisianna.. going to be a big clean up and hope FEMA can find money for them because most didn't have flood insurance..only wind..

Heard some lady say on the news she really wishes a tree or two (lots there) would have fallen on the house, that they were insured for.. this they weren't.

Even though it hadn't flooded in over 40 years.. still is bayou and still does flood .. just like the deep SW in Miami which was just reclaimed from the Glades a few years back.. floods fast in a heavy rain

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 25 2005 07:58 PM
Re: tornado time

The rain is good for places like George County, with most of their timber on the ground now. Possible fires were getting to be a real issue there in the weeks after Katrina. I do think it was a blessing however for all the people that were left out in the open along the entire MS Gulf Coast in the weeks afterward that had little shelter, that they didn't have to contend with rainfall. Of course there are still folks camping out on their slabs (Frank P is going to be one of them, but at least he'll have a trailer).

BTW heard from my brother today and they did manage to get all those folks out of the flooded Ocean Springs communities overnight Thursday night before Rita hit and they had the 4-5 additional feet of water plus the 2.2 foot high tide. He said that they just barely got the patrol cars out on the last trip, as the flooding was increasing, just as they picked up the last folks. The water didn't start to go down until about mid-morning Friday.

Also - he said that now since it has been a month and there is still no housing for about 80% of the people in the county, with a lot of houses that are intact having maybe four, five families in them, he said it is really getting on everyone's nerves. This last four days he was on duty he says they answered the same amount of "domestic dispute" calls they usually handle in a month.

Also - saw an overhead shot from a helicopter on Fox News today that was labeled "Campron LA" (under a photo section called "Scenes from Rita") but which was clearly Holly Beach, although they may have meant to say Cameron instead. There was nothing left except pilings, slabs and telephone poles. The city was completely gone.

I found more on Holly Beach, also apparently called "The Cajun Riviera" as well as this comment:

"The structures, which appear to be of a temporary nature, are "built to be rebuilt." Their close proximity to the Gulf makes them a prime target for the ravages of hurricanes and other tropical storms."

Here's a story about the last two people to leave town before Rita:

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/c/a/2005/09/23/MNG64ESMQE1.DTL

I also found these great USGS coastal classification maps of the entire western LA coastal area:

http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2005/1261/holly-beachSW.html

Ryan
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Sep 25 2005 08:25 PM
Re: tornado time

Quote:

The rain is good for places like George County, with most of their timber on the ground now. Possible fires were getting to be a real issue there in the weeks after Katrina.



I agree, but disagree more only becuase witht eh ground soo dry, the rain wasn't absorbed it just sat there, and may sit there for a good week and a half or so.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 25 2005 08:41 PM
Re: last few days of september

Hank. I'm for number 4. "the system doesn't develop".
But after reading the flash flood warning from NWS San Juan. Seems there is an abundance of tropical moisture present.

The Jackson,MS afternoon AFD, is sticking with a cool frontal passage around mid-week.
Progging lows in the upper and mid 50s by week end.
Indicating the "GFS is forecasting 850mb temps of 0.0 Celcius in Northern MS on Thursday evening and surface dewpoints ( read-really dry air! ) in the 30s at most locations Friday".
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDJAN&max=51

Lake Charles and New Orleans NWS Offices are in agreement with the cool down late this week.

The forecasted cool front, if and when it appears, could provide a 'block' to any tropical systems.
Hypothetically this could result in a barrier to storms in the Central and Western GOM. Leaving Florida and possibly Alabama open.

Worst case scenario, similar to Charley '04. Where a weak cool front deflected/ turned Charley prematurely into the Punta Gorda area.
Presently we have NO organized Tropical systems. And here's to hoping that last until 01 November.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sun Sep 25 2005 08:52 PM
SE Texas

Here's the best reason I've seen yet to stay out of the SE Texas and SW Louisiana areas.

RECORD HIGHS FOR TOMORROW (SEP 26)...

IAH________CLL________GLS
96 (1931)___98 (1920)____90 (1939)
( IAH-Houston Airport, CLL-College Sta,TX, GLS-Galveston)
EXPECT RECORD HIGHS FOR ALL OF ABOVE TO BE BROKEN TOMORROW.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDHGX&max=51

Very few places have electricity. Evacuees returning early are now faced with Record Breaking Temperatures, no running water, air conditioning or ways to cool themselves.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 26 2005 01:17 AM
Re: SE Texas

not sure if it's already be posted.... there is a storm chaser who has a close-up of that tornado the wbrc news is showing on cnn, near tuscaloosa, ala... yesterday afternoon.... i was watching it on my GRLevel 3 program and saw the warning and said it was being tracked by local tv station and storm spotters and chasers and was an extremely dangerous tornado.... being tracked.... saw the tower cam footage and it looks almost like what i and jason saw back on sept. 15th, 2004 (ivan)......although this one looked bigger and wasn't heading towards the camera!!! ..... i am trying to find a link.... a know there was a news station airing it.... i did find this pick
here....There is tower cam footage.... but i saw an up close video somewhere........ rita put down some tornados yesterday.... i saw up too 30-40 warnings out of BHMX and Huntsville NWS..... within 3-5hrs..... busy guys up there!!!
thanxs to rita.

Here's WBRC Fox 6 tower cam page for there web site....would of seen it live on the internet yesterday...


WOW Check out this pic..... here.... (report: the tornado was on the ground for 12mins)

http://www.nbc13.com/news/5018913/detail.html#

mojorox
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Sep 26 2005 01:17 AM
Re: Extended Models

Yes, it did smell like dead animals. By day there were bobcats, backhoes, helicopters and chainsaws. Whenever a car or truck drove fast on the street it stirred up a cloud of drywall dust and fiberglass which about choked us. There was a ban on any open fires as it had not rained since the storm, at least not till the outer bands of Rita started coming in.

At night we were the only ones on the street and we were armed in our tent as every so often a strange car would slowly drive up the street and as we were two women alone...You could see through the houses where the surge had taken out the walls of the houses coming and going.

In the tree above our tent hung trophys and stuffed animals among other things from peoples houses. We salvaged exactly enough to fill one tote. My sis was devestated.

I came home and slept for the best part of two days and I still feel shellshocked. It truly was like someone had dropped a bomb on the place. I can't begin to convey the destruction and how I feel after the experience. I think it will take a while to get over it. I went through Charlie last year and this was nothing like what I experienced then. I feel for the people who are living there right now.

heynow
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Sep 26 2005 10:09 AM
Re: Heading back to Abbeville

I finally made it back home and all is well with my house...but my community is in shambles. Personally, I was very lucky, but my community wasn't. Almost every city in the parish (parish=county) is underwater. And the parishes to the west (Cameron and Calcasieu) are not only underwater but most of the structures along the coast are completely gone. Not only houses, but telephone poles, electrical lines, etc. It is as if they never existed. Keep in mind, many of the structures along the coast in the region are built on stilts and not slabs.

We are experiencing record heat down here, which adds to the desperation. The high that helped steer Rita also brought record-breaking heat all last week and continues to do so. We have been seeing temps at around 98 degrees with a heat index of 110. Today, we expect 95 with a heat index of 108. Luckily, a cool front is supposed to come in tomorrow and drop our temps considerably. Yea! A bright spot.

I know this is not a chat room, but I had to post what is going on in my neck of the woods. I have been a registered member here since last year and although I am not a weather expert, I have learned so much from all the members here. Because I am a part of this online community, I feel like I have insider information when it comes to the weather. And because of the exchange of knowledge at flhurricane.com during the run-up to Rita, I was fully prepared and knew what to expect. Thank you.

Ricky

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 26 2005 10:09 AM
Re: Extended Models

Where in Ocean Springs did your sis live? Just wondering if she was one of the folks my brother rescued on Thursday night with the flooding from Rita. He said there were folks camping in tents on their slabs in some of the devastated neighborhoods; that was why he was risking driving through the flooded streets to get down that way. He also organized some other patrol cars as well to make sure they got everyone.

Hootowl
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 26 2005 10:11 AM
Re: Lull

Shhhhhhhhh.......

99L is up enough already!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (shakes head and has instant headache)

Had to use the backup site. The regular Navy site isn't working for me today.


http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 26 2005 10:25 AM
Re: Lull

And we're off! Here are the models on where it may go:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

and its possible intensity...couple models to Cat 1:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png

HanKFranK
(User)
Mon Sep 26 2005 10:34 AM
i get it...

models are finally collectively showing something that makes sense about the evolution later this week. there are two areas that have development prospects. i'll mention a third just because it would be weird as hell if it came about.
one: the wave in the caribbean. most of the models have it slowing down in the nw caribbean as the environment becomes more favorable. still a goodly bit of shear down there, so this may come about more slowly than shown... but several globals have a system present near/east of the yucatan in 3-5 days. if it develops, like a mexico or maybe south texas thing. more likely mexico, but it may get stuck down there.
two: the wave in the eastern atlantic near 40-45w. this is the system the outlooks have been saying 'could be entering a more favorable environment' for a couple of days now. the environment isn't getting a whole lot more favorable, but it is going west and remaining coherent. several globals don't develop/recurve this thing now, instead getting it stuck near the end of the run over the coming weekend as that early october ridge blocks it off the east coast. now i see where that wave underneath was coming from. if it gets caught, we may have it running at us between florida and the carolinas.
three: remember all the talk about rita coming back to the coast? well, it is in a fashion. the surface system went out like a shot to the ne unexpected by all those models that stalled the system.. but there's still a lot of rain over ms/al. a lot of the mid-level energy did get left behind instead, so the models/forecasts were partially on. it isn't rita, but this vestige does have the slightest chance of moving s and sw into the gulf and redeveloping. some of those earlier forecasts were totally nuts after all.
checked the soi index and its still trending positive with negative interludes. this is a favorable pattern for bursts of atlantic development, that we've had in both july and much of september. the period between october 3rd and 7th or so ought to be a strike window for the east coast, so we aren't rid of threats by any means, even though it's getting later in the season and when we'd more traditionally just look at florida/the caribbean.
HF 1434z26september

twizted sizter
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 26 2005 10:52 AM
Re: i get it...

Maybe if everyone quit wishing for a lull we'd actually get one LOL!!

Seems to consensous for the Yucatan at the moment...noticed the CMC wants to spring something up in the Bahamas in a couple of days & ride it up to Ga/SC...guess that's what you were talking about...see if/how the others come in line on it.

You know who is real bullish on things as well...surprise surprise...but he does seem to have a knack for noticing pattern setups.

ETA>>>possible recon tomorrow as well.

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 26 2005 12:22 PM
Re: i get it...

That little system in the central carribean looks pretty good to me. Isn't it the same one that was going through the lower islands last week? Looks like building convection and some ridging over it thanks to that weak ULL moving west over the Florida straights..
The METS here have been suggesting a GOM low later in the period too. The trough from Rita and the front will be hanging around to be sure.
If as HF says the SOI will become favorable and as Clark stated a few days ago the MJO will reinvigorate, we may be seeing things go in these areas sooner than we like. I hope not as I am leaving for about ten days this weekend, and I don't want that uncertainty.

I think the season will halt abruptly around the middle of the month.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Sep 26 2005 12:56 PM
recon

I think the possible recon was listed for Wednesday, not tomorrow (it was listed on the outlook for the succeeding day in tomorrow's POD). The ULL that currently appears to be centered north of Cuba could play a role in making the upper-level winds somewhat unfavorable for development in the next couple of days, both for the system over the Carribbean and anything that might try to develop out of the disturbed weather over the NE Gulf.

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Mon Sep 26 2005 01:08 PM
Re: i get it...

HF,

Looks like that energy you mentioned in #3 is dropping into the Gulf...be worth watching:

http://intellicast.com/Local/USLocalWide...ne&pid=none

yeah, most of the models show it dropping in and fading out. it doesn't look like it'll shear out, it's just probably partially baroclinc right now and will tend to weaken as the upper trough pulls away unless it can tap into tropical energy sources. -HF

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Mon Sep 26 2005 01:31 PM
99L

Floater 1 is now on 99L a possible banding feature, but still very disorganized. No real surface circulation according to QUIKSCAT. So it'll take some time to become anything... if it ever does...

-Mark

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 26 2005 02:00 PM
Re: 99L

I was just looking at that. You can see the shear blowing the clouds to the SW on the clouds to the east, and to the W on the clouds to the west. I'm trying to understand the models...does the ULL over Cuba move a little west the next couple days? Well there is warm water over both of the general tracks indicated by the models, but a lot of shear will keep much from developing for the next couple days, right? It seems so difficult to make anything out of these clouds before they form into a tropical depression...I thought I saw some low level clouds moving a little circularly for a time, more to the west of where the center is supposed to be, at around 14N 73W, but I guess it isn't anything.

dave foster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 26 2005 03:33 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

Point taken.

I understand that when such natural disasters occur, as in the case of Katrina, the media are usually first on the scene, and that they head for those locations where they are able to achieve maximum exposure. This can seem tough on the outlying districts that may have taken the brunt of the storm, but The fact of the matter is the majority of viewers expect to see those areas where the most hardship and loss of life has occurred, and that is what the media gives them. I'm sure you would agree that the number of casualties and deaths that occurred would have been within the city of New Orleans, not the coastal parishes that you mention, so I believe that my observation is just.

Another aspect of media coverage is the need to convey to the viewing public the wholesale devastation that can occur in these situations in order to stimulate a response from the authorities that might otherwise fail to materialise. The destruction that Katrina wrought on the Gulf coast was widespread, and it would have been physically and logistically impossible for news companies to get crews on the scene at every concievable location where damage was expected. I believe that the media's coverage of the storm was fair and balanced considering the circumstances. Yes, the residents of the communities that you mention have every right to be upset with their lot but, in the wider context I also believe that, on reflection, they will come to understand the media's justification for their actions.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 26 2005 04:11 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

No I don't agree. NOLA most definitely did not get the brunt of Katrina. Didn't you look at any of the images in the link I provided?

The situation in NOLA was that there was no evac plan for a very large number of people, and there was also as assumption that the levees wouldn't break. NOLA actually did not receive a great deal of damage from the storm; the afternoon when Katrina had passed NOLA, national news media were saying NOLA had "dodged the bullet," because of that very reason -- the lack of destruction from the hurricane. At that point it truly had. At that moment there was total destruction along a separate 200 miles of coastline that was being ignored.

One levee did actually get destroyed but it was not in NOLA - it was in St Bernard Parish to the east. Four breaks then developed in three canals in NOLA (these have been referred to as levees by the media, but all were actually failures of concrete walls along the edges of the canals, like the sides of a tub, that buckled). Following the breaks to the canals, extensive flooding of NOLA did occur. Then, loss of life occured because there was no plan to get food and water to the people that remained in the two large shelters because there had been no evac plan originally to get them out, and those that had remained in their homes in flooded areas were trapped in their attics or on roofs. NOLA did not have an evacuation plan. Now Houston on the other hand had a successful plan and a successful evacuation, even if it did not end up taking a direct hit from Rita. Houston has many more residents than NOLA.

In other words, NOLA's failure to address evac issues was what caused the loss of life, not damage from the hurricane storm surge and winds.

However storm surge and winds from Katrina wiped out about 200 miles of coastline, and that is not a trivial amount of damage. That is actually where the damage from the hurricane occured - along the coastline in LA, MS, and AL.

The MS Gulf Coast has been through the hurricane drill a number of times. All three coastal counties not only have a comprehensive plan, they spend money just on hurricane preparations. Jackson County purchased two ATV from the National Guard when they were upgrading, for the express purpose of rescuing people from the western and eastern sides of the county during a hurricane (that county is completely divided by water when storm surge occurs). Most people will leave the low-lying coastal areas. That did not leave thousands of people in the direct area of the storm surge, only because they moved out of the way. But most of these people did not move very far inland, only a couple of miles, until the surge had passed. Afterwards, there were and are thousands more in MS, than in the NOLA area, that are homeless -- not because their homes were flooded, but because their homes are gone. Gone. For instance, Biloxi is home to over 50,000 residents. In Pascagoula, somewhere between 90 and 95 % of homes were destroyed, and all those people are now homeless, as there are still no FEMA trailers a month later. In Hancock County, the cities of Waveland, Bay St Louis, and Pass Christain were almost completely wiped off the map. Virutally no buildings were left standing in Waveland, and in Pass Christian I believe less than 30% were left (it may be much less). Even inland communities in Hancock county were destroyed: Diamondhead, Kiln, Pearlington. Extensive damage was done to the cities of Long Beach and Gulfport because unlike Biloxi they were mostly right along the coastline. Ocean Springs, Gulf Hills, D'Iberville - areas that are all pretty much destroyed, where very few buildings remain on the coastline.

A comment from someone just a couple of posts back on this forum: she had just returned from Ocean Springs where she said it looked like "a bomb had gone off" from Katrina.

The type of damage you might be seeing from Rita in Holly Beach, in Cameron -- that is what happened along 200 miles of coastline with Katrina, to approximately 100 communities! Most definitely NOLA was not the primary point of impact for Katrina. Simply because they were able and willing to evacuate, and were not killed, does not mean that they don't suffer more hardship. Plus, 1/4 of the deaths from Katrina were in these areas, not NOLA, and there are many more missing from these areas, where bodies were washed out to sea, that have not yet been added to the total, and will not be added for many more months. This includes over 50 people from Hancock County alone. Once the total toll of life is determined, especially from places like St Bernard and Plaquemines Parish, the number of dead from the areas hit hardest by the storm will most certainly rise to a more significant percentage of the total.

Here are specific images from many of the coastal communities that were wiped out by Katrina. You look at all of these, in detail, then come back and say whether you think canal breaks in NOLA that caused flooding, compares. There is no question that he media coverage was not balanced and not appropriate, and they know it, and that is why they are bending over backwards now with Rita to make an effort to cover the actual damage, rather than focus on Houston and Galveston.

Plaquemine Parish:

Orchard
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24730161.jpg

Venice
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24730156.jpg

Dubic
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24727112.jpg
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24727088.jpg

Boothville
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24727074.jpg
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24726646.jpg

Fort Jackson
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24727046.jpg

Triumph
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24729669.jpg

Gulftown
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24729674.jpg

Buras
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24729683.jpg
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24729709.jpg

Sunrise
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24729722.jpg

Empire
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24729757.jpg
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24729766.jpg

Tropical Blend
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24729775.jpg

Hesperides
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24730577.jpg

Bremond
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24737412.jpg

Port Sulfur
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24737445.jpg

Happy Jack
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24737483.jpg

Point A La Heche
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24727834.jpg

St. Bernard Parish

Chalmette
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24425452.jpg
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24425441.jpg

Venitian Isles
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24724436.jpg

Two small coastal LA towns, on a peninsula between two large lakes, nothing left except slabs and mud, not even a debris field:

Pike Fort
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24715253.jpg
Greens Ditch
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24738260.jpg

St Tammany Parish

I-10 bridge spans missing over the lake, at Slidell LA (observe the boat on the interstate bridge)
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24431127.jpg
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24431089.jpg

Wind and water damage at Slidell LA:
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24615646.jpg

Slidell and areas just east got nailed by a particularly virulent piece of the eyewall as it rotated from N to SW when it was right over the city. That area, and to the east, has quite a bit of wind damage in the forest where there are large swaths of trees just snapped off and laying down.


Extensive flooding in Slidell:
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24618502.jpg

Hancock County

Surge and high wind damage in Pearlington MS (east of Slidell)
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24615646.jpg

Part of Lakeshore, MS (nothing left except slabs; no debris field)
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24331584.jpg
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24331589.jpg

Clermont Harbor, MS
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24331220.jpg

Waveland, MS
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24334523.jpg

Bay St. Louis, MS
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24431539.jpg

Diamondhead (BSL area)
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24439874.jpg

Hwy 90 bridge between BSL and Pass Christian
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24334580.jpg

Harrison County

Henderson Point (Pass Christian)
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24331100.jpg

Pass Christian
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24331067.jpg

Long Beach
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24330940.jpg

Gulfport
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24330924.jpg

Gulfport, going east
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24330907.jpg

Western Biloxi
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24333396.jpg

East Biloxi
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24332305.jpg

East Biloxi, Back Bay side
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24334981.jpg

East Biloxi, Back Bay, mud on rooftops!
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24335004.jpg

Hwy 90 Biloxi – Ocean Springs bridge
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24833615.jpg

D’Iberville
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24806826.jpg

Jackson County

Ocean Springs
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24411679.jpg

Gulf Hills area, Ocean Springs
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24807869.jpg
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24807879.jpg

Gautier
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24332498.jpg

Pascagoula
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24329662.jpg

Mobile County

Bayou La Batre, AL
http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24529686.jpg

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Sep 26 2005 04:11 PM
Re: 99L

It does not look like a LLC is evident yet on 99L.. The NHC will probably need more evidence to send a plane. As for shear from the ULL It looks like it is east of the shear zone and may actually be benefited by the flow over the top of it as far as ventilation is concerned.
I would say 4 on a scale of ten to get something here.
I would guess 2 for the GOM.

HURRICANELONNY
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 26 2005 04:44 PM
Re: 99L

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
209 PM EDT Monday Sep 26 2005


Discussion...middle level trough southwest of Andros moving west and
approaching South Florida showing up well on water vapor. 12z sounding
showed cooling from 700 mb to h4 but we still have a weak subsidence
cap around 600 mb. Short wave and front to move into North Florida
and northeast Gulf and stall. GFS shows a low developing in the
northeast Gulf of Mexico possibly on the south end of the front.
That seems to weaken and fade away by Friday but another low forms
over the northwest Caribbean and moves northwest through the
Yucatan Channel early Saturday. This one really needs to be
monitored.


MapMaster
(Weather Guru)
Mon Sep 26 2005 04:51 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

Margie:

I appreciate your fervor and zeal. I agree with your conclusion re: media overfocus on NO. However, your pictures don't show much, sorry. Aerials aren't as convincing as ground shots.

However---I WAS THERE for weeks in S. Mississippi, on the ground, in many of the places you (and others) are talking about. There is terrific destruction, but NOT to the degree you are stating. However, we are merely talking about differences in terminology/degree, most likely. It IS terrible in S. Mississippi...and directly related to the storm, not to subsequent events ("levee'" breaks).

I dispute your assertion about planning by the three counties....if there were plans, that were executed and executable, I didn't see them.

It was criminal that the public safety agencies didn't pull back out of harms way...one of the first rules for responders...."don't become a victim yourself"... if you become a victim, then you are of no help to anyone and actually absorb resources that could be better used. I heard about police swimming out of their stations ...saw a fire station ONE BLOCK from the coast that had all apparatus still in it, destroyed of course.

Hundreds of cars were abandoned along the median and sides of 603 and 607--in neat lines..by folks who thought they would be safe there. All destroyed...and people died in some of them....planning, I didn't see it.

Many people died due to lack of planning and lack of executable plans...I saw the proof of that.

The % of damage you stated in some of the coastal communities are true for the areas SOUTH of the RR tracks and /or US 90, but not true overall. Some figures have been highly overinflated (90% of Pascagoula was not destroyed...I was just there).

However...everything south of the RR tracks in Gulfport, Waveland, BSL and Pass C..yes, gone. Heartbreaking.

FEMA has started putting in trailers...and blue roofs went up much faster than last yr in Fl.


As in most cases--extremes on both ends can be discounted...the truth is in the middle. The truth is pretty terrible, any way you look at it. And NOLA was not the main damaged area by the STORM direct effects.

MM

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 26 2005 05:13 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

In Pascagoula, the buildings are destroyed, because they are inhabitable due to four feet or more of flood waters. They are all going to have to be razed! It is exactly the same results as if nothing was left but a slab.

Those images do show complete destruction...did you use the zoom feature to look at the details?

Because my brother was in charge of rescues in the western part of the county, I know there was a great deal of hurricane planning done in Jackson County (by the way the county with the least number of deaths along the MS coast). I think it was more planning than was done by the other two counties. Harrison County did not have a mandatory evac and was not very proactive in asking people to leave the coastline; they did have the highest number of fatalities so far, but that may also be because they have the highest population.

Do you know that ATV in the western part of the county saved 23 lives before the surge hit? That's 23 people that didn't have to die from storm surge. That is a poor county and they didn't have to spend money on those vehicles; they had a long-term plan to save lives and it worked.

The police that had to swim out of the station were in BSL, I believe, in Hancock County. That is also the county where the EOC almost didn't make it. However they were in a building 30 feet above sea level. The surge there was 30 feet with waves on top of the surge, and ate away one of the walls of the building.

The EOCs across the MS Gulf Coast did set up according to the surge forecast (which was 18-22 feet, higher locally). In Jackson County they did not anticipate the max surge, being so far from the eyewall - and remember the original track was to go to the west of NOLA. There was really no way they could anticipate an 18 foot surge there; the EOC, at 13 feet of elevation, was felt to be out of the area of danger. Remember that "locally" turned out to be 90 miles to the east of the center of the eyewall (Ocean Springs had a surge higher than 22 feet). This had never happened in any other storm, and I don't believe that NHC warnings specifically anticipated this. The western deployment area in Jackson County was felt to be safe at 25 feet and I don't think they anticipated a 26-foot surge there.

Vehicles were not safe regardless of whether they were in the surge area or not. All glass was blown out of vehicles due to the wind whether they were flooded or not.

Also in Jackson County the upper part of the county, where they might have "pulled back" to, did not have any buildings to pull back to. That is totally rural up there; all the public buildings are on the coastline, and no one really travels to the back county unless they live there. In fact, so much of that county is water, that by "pulling back" to the rural area, they would have probably been surrounded by water and trapped, and unable to get to the populated areas to be of any service.

There are only a couple of roads, all rural, out of that county to the north. The only interstate, I-10, runs along the coast to Mobile, in AL, or to Biloxi, in Harrison County. Even parts of I-10 were flooded after the storm in Jackson County, and impassable. All the local roads into and out of the county were initially flooded somewhere during the surge.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Sep 26 2005 05:26 PM
Caribbean

Here is what the afternoon TWD mentions about the wave in the Caribbean:

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 20N MOVING W
15 KT WITH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 13N70W. THE WAVE HAS BEEN
REPOSITIONED SLIGHTLY TO THE E BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE ABC ISLANDS REPORTING LIGHT SW OR NW WINDS. PRESSURES
FALLS ARE OCCURRING WITH THIS WAVE THOUGH THE CONVECTION PATTERN
IS DISORGANIZED. A BAND OF TSTMS MOVING AWAY FROM THE WAVE IS
ALONG 17N71W TO 15N75W WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
CLOSER TO THE BROAD LOW FROM 13N-15.5N BETWEEN 66W-71W. WITH
THE ITCZ SO FAR TO THE NORTH IN THE EPAC.. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THIS WAVE WILL ENCOUNTER A CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE W CARIBBEAN IN A COUPLE
DAYS.

dave foster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 26 2005 05:38 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

Quote :

[ No I don't agree. NOLA most definitely did not get the brunt of Katrina. Didn't you look at any of the images in the link I provided? ]

Yes, I did take a look at your images and they are indeed disturbing but, you obviously never read my post properly. If you care to read it again you will find that your assertion that I said 'New Orleans got the brunt' is most definitely incorrect.

Whether the loss of life in New Orleans can be directly attributed to the storm, the lack of an evacuation plan or the subsequent breach of the levees is not the issue now. The loss of life in New Orleans was terrible and, as you state later, considerably greater than in the 200 miles of coastline.

On a final note, I consider the loss of life, whatever the circumstance, to be more profound than the destruction and loss of property.

Sheeper
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Sep 26 2005 06:31 PM
Re: Rita Nearing Landfall at the Texas / Louisiana Border

the kind of destruction that these storms bring is teriible, the loss of life worse. As a professional, i tell civilians that "if you value your property and things more than your life and the life of your family then you WILL die." Plain and simple. I'll be back in S. Miss with a medical team and relief later this week. This group is a private organization that has engaged my services to understand US disaster response (they have experience in global relief). I'll ask anyone here that if they know of specific needs and/or specific contacts that this group can work with and/or help to let me know.


Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center