MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Sep 26 2005 06:59 PM
Watching the Caribbean

After Rita, it's been fairly quiet in the tropics, except for one area in the Caribbean. Chances are slowly gaining that it will form into a new depression later in the week. This wave is being called 99L by the navy.

Right now I'd give it a 25% of developing in the next two days, it will get higher as the week progresses. It's somewhat less today because a lot of the circulation "split" and is very disorganized right now. Windshear will decrease later in the week, making the chances drift upward.

The models in the map below are dubious at best, I never like to take early model runs worth for much of anything.

We'll be updating that as more information arrives.



Hurricane Rita caused a great deal of flooding in damage in Cameron Parish in Lousiana. Where most of the damage was seen. Like initial after Katrina, damage wasn't seen as widespread until helicopters toured the area. I hope most decided to evacuate the area there.

Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from the islands

99L

Animated model plot of 99L


Storm Cooper
(User)
Mon Sep 26 2005 07:23 PM
Re: Watching the Caribbean

Thanks for the new thread Mike! As you said the early model runs are dubious. Hopefully 99L will die off into nothing but it needs to be watched none the less just in case.

stevie
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Sep 26 2005 08:11 PM
Re: Watching the Caribbean

Mike, can you send me a link to a model page or info on the front coming down. I want to find out why or if the short wave coming down through the midwest is going to pick up this system in the caribbean. Thanks

Ryan
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Sep 26 2005 10:51 PM
Re: Watching the Caribbean

oh no i really hope this stays out of the gulfff.....ugh i feel so bad for tall those on the gulf coast

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Sep 26 2005 11:47 PM
Re: Watching the Caribbean

A question on hurricane stats. Do storms towards the end of the season have much of a chance to make it to major hurricane status? I bet someone here has some numbers on previous seasons, for October and November storms.
not uncommon to get a major in october. uncommon in november, but it's happened twice in the last ten years. -HF


HanKFranK
(User)
Tue Sep 27 2005 01:45 AM
watching down the road

a few things worth watching, all of which will take a couple to few days to do anything... but definite signs of life in the models right now. quick rundown from west to east:
north gulf: a vorticity lobe peeled off of rita and has descended into the gulf. it's non-tropical and elongated and northerly-sheared, and has little model support.. but a few of the globals are watching it for the next couple of days... showing it as quasi-stationary. i'm not as certain that it will completely go away as some are showing, but am assuming the no-development idea is right because not a single model has any interest in it.
central caribbean: wave/low 99L is still undergoing some easterly shear. there are a good number of upper lows running around the basin, and this one is still tangling with them. model consensus is that it moves wnw-nw and becomes more defined later in the week in the nw caribbean. from there some show it moving over the yucatan and into the western gulf. potential threat if it develops.
central atlantic: the philippe eater. currently an extratropical low east of bermuda that's peeled back off the front it earlier merged with. it's been devoid of convection until some suddenly blew up at the center this evening. doesn't mean much.. yet. if that persists it'll transition into something. if it isn't generating gales right now it's dang close. shoul;d it develop it'll just get yanked out when the next trough comes by.
45 wave: sheared, broad, plodding west. several reliable globals show it moving wnw on a recurvature-type track this week, then getting blocked and turning west towards the u.s. over the weekend as a strong ridge develops over the western atlantic and eastern u.s. next week. it has to survive this week and miss the first trough connection... but a potential threat if it makes it through... to the southeast coast.
gfs shows waves behind perking up but common sense says they won't do anything this late in the year in the far eastern atlantic.
none of those four areas is imminent to do anything.... but at least one and quite possibly two should develop over the next week to ten days.
HF 0545z27september


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 27 2005 09:04 AM
Re: watching down the road

Thx for your comment. I suppose given the season's predictions and the way things have been going that we could expect to see one more landfall before the season's over.

I'm still seeing the edge of a LLC in 99L peaking out this morning at 17N 77W, and not seeing the shear like yesterday but looks more like outflow from last night's convection...wisps going out in diff dir from the center. That wouldn't be possible would it?


Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 27 2005 09:43 AM
Re: watching down the road

NHC isn't seeing any rapid development for these systems right now. The one over the Caribean looks to be forming better convection this morning, but it's still a long way off (hopefully).

SAL isn't very strong in the atlantic, but it covers a very broad area. It might inhibit some development. Unfortunately none of the SAL reaches the Caribean, so if and when the winds become favorable, I wouldn't be surprised to see that system form a TD. The water down there is quite warm, with deep 26C isotherms. It's capable of supporting a major storm...at least the Gulf is cool now, and hopefully will remain so.

--RC
P.S. - thx for the new thread


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 27 2005 09:55 AM
Re: watching down the road

Nothing would surprise me anymore.All the hurricanes this year formed in the western atlantic,none from the east.So if we see something develope in the east and make it over here in October,hey like I said nothing can surprise me now.Waters are still very warm.If someone said in May that we would have 8 canes,And not one formed in the east atlantic,we would all call the person crazy.

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 27 2005 10:35 AM
Re: watching down the road

This water vapor loop shows three possibly interesting areas...the tail end of the front in the Gulf, the tail end of whatever east of PR, and a little more organization of the disturbance south of the DR:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 27 2005 11:19 AM
Re: watching down the road

They actually did two SHIPS runs around 12Z this morning for the system currently over the Caribbean (99L). One was initialized at 13.6 N, 73.8 W with a initial intensity of 20 knots. The second one (run about 30 minutes later) was given an initial position at 13.7 N, 75.6 W and an initial intensity of 25 knots. Both runs indicated steady strengthening through 120 hours, so it appears that the conditions (at least in the model reality) will be favorable for this system if it can establish itself as a tropical cyclone (jury still out on that, obviously). I don't know if they decided that the system looked stronger and farther west than what they originally thought, or if they were just plugging numbers in to test various scenarios.

They also did a 06Z GFDL run for 99L, but the forecast never even made it to 6 hours before the system was considered to be dissipated, so the GFDL is not impressed yet.

Update: Just read the latest outlook from NHC and they do seem more impressed this morning:

A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST
OF JAMAICA IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED
TODAY... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE ALSO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN
JAMAICA... THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 27 2005 12:22 PM
Re: watching down the road

Yeah I did see what I thought I saw and posted on this morning!

But you know what I didn't think to do do...but just saw on Steve Gregory's blog: check the buoy. He did. Winds went from ENE to WSW within two hours this am on 42058, located at about 15N 75W, from 7 to 9 am-ish.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 27 2005 12:31 PM
Re: watching down the road

I think this is the eastern most group of convection from what yesterday was two distinct groups...the western most hustled off to the NW and was pulled up into the shear associated with the ULL...this held back and was and still is partially under a small ridge pulling westward in the wake of that ULL. The system therefore is showing the effects of shear on the west, but the North and NE quardrants are actually holding their own, with some outflow over the top of those storms...the visual hints at a LLC. The NRL has intensity at 25 kts. It looks better today than yesterday at this same time. I still think it is a 40% go.
If I recall correctly MItch was the most recent late October cat 5 that reaped death and destruction in Mexico and Hondouras. That storm is a good example of how unpredictible these things really get later in the season when things change quickly.


lennox
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 27 2005 12:44 PM
Re: watching down the road

Buoy wind data:
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

More recently the winds have continued to swing around:
1550 NNW ( 331 deg ) 6.6 kts
1540 NW ( 316 deg ) 6.4 kts
1530 NW ( 304 deg ) 6.6 kts
1520 WNW ( 296 deg ) 5.1 kts
1510 WNW ( 283 deg ) 6.4 kts
1500 W ( 273 deg ) 7.0 kts


javlin
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 27 2005 01:08 PM
Re: watching down the road

99L has a better sat presentation as the day goes on will be interesting to see if it prevails for 24 hrs.If it should yea we should be looking for a more Northerly componet later on this week.This could in all likily hood be another WGOM threat.The models are forcasting a huge ridge from LA/MS border to the coast of Africa.You talk about moving some waves to the west..I would not be surprised to here Alpha and Beta later.

HanKFranK
(User)
Tue Sep 27 2005 01:50 PM
Re: watching down the road

99L is looking better today. those sfc reports and the satellite are showing a close low. slowing down and throwing deep convection, developing an outflow jet... you do the math. ssd still hasn't rated it... either TW or 1.0 right now i'd guess. really good chance it'll be a depression tomorrow when they recon it. i'd expect it to track south of the caymans for the next couple of days, and be near cozumel around friday. long term i'm betting it ends up somewhere on the texas coast early next week.
that system east of the islands hasn't come together yet. it'll probably be a couple more days before an invest quality system re-emerges (it was 98L a few days ago... they may reassign that number or just skip ahead. around the weekend this thing will probably be developing south of bermuda.. and it ought to run west towards the southeast coast. not sure whether it makes it or tries to turn at the coast. as always, preliminary best bet is north carolina, though it'll come in further south if it plows straight in.
HF 1748z27september


Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 27 2005 02:31 PM
Re: watching down the road

Just a note:

GOES Floater 1 is now on 99L

I'm seeing definate spin and wraping of convection starting on IR. NHC TWD also mentions the banding: "VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING ON THE N SIDE OF THE WAVE WITH SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW. "

NHC Source: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/271706.shtml?


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 27 2005 02:32 PM
Re: watching down the road

99L has been upgraded to a "Special Feature" in the latest TWD:

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W S OF CUBA WITH
A 1010 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. OBSERVATIONS FROM BUOY
42058 SUGGEST THERE IS A WEAK LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WITH
WLY WINDS RECENTLY REPORTED...THOUGH THOSE WINDS ARE LIKELY
ENHANCED BY DOWNDRAFTS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW BANDING FEATURES DEVELOPING ON THE N
SIDE OF THE WAVE WITH SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW. THIS AREA HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS. A SLOW MOVEMENT TO THE WNW IS LIKELY... PLACING THE
SYSTEM IN THE W CARIBBEAN LATE WED/EARLY THU. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13.5N-17.5N BETWEEN 74W-78W. HEAVY
RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR JAMAICA LATER TODAY AND OVERNIGHT.

They also have two recon flights scheduled for tomorrow on the latest recon POD.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 27 2005 03:04 PM
Re: watching down the road

ANY DATA ON THE SST'S DOWN THERE? THE GRAPHS SUGGEST MID 80'S...ANY SPECIFICS?

Reaper
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 27 2005 03:08 PM
Re: watching down the road

Try here:

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/anomnight.9.27.2005.gif


Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 27 2005 03:15 PM
Re: watching down the road

Quote:

ANY DATA ON THE SST'S DOWN THERE? THE GRAPHS SUGGEST MID 80'S...ANY SPECIFICS?




Yeah, VERY warm with high heat content:

26C+ SST range: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/sst2.watl.20050927.gif
Depth of 26C Isotherm: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/z26.watl.20050927.gif
Heat potential: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/hh3.watl.20050927.gif


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 27 2005 03:35 PM
Re: watching down the road

Buoy 42058, which is located in the general vicinity of 99L, reported a water temp of 85.5 F the last hour. That area has been generally untouched this season and both the obs and various analyses indicate that there is plenty of available energy in that area for any system that organizes enough to take advantage of it.

SirCane
(Storm Tracker)
Tue Sep 27 2005 03:36 PM
Re: watching down the road

I don't know, but this scares me. Looks like it's starting to develop. Spells more Gulf trouble. All we need on the gulf coast right now. Ivan, Charley, Katrina, Rita. All at least CAT 3 in 1 years time in the gulf!! Not to mention Emily that hit Mexico just south of Texas not long after Dennis hit here.

Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 27 2005 04:03 PM
Re: watching down the road

Well, I just looked over the model runs. Frankly, the models just aren't picking this thing up much yet - there doesn't seem to be any consistancy in vorticity tracks, and pressure completely loses it.

No idea where it's going until model come out with a stronger storm as input data.


doug
(Weather Analyst)
Tue Sep 27 2005 04:04 PM
Re: watching down the road

The satellite representation looks better all the time.
Looks like convection around a center and further development all the way around now to the west quardrant with the higher and brighter cloud tops...
Could be close to clyclone formation


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 27 2005 04:23 PM
Re: watching down the road

Emily went through there on her way to Cozumel, hugging the south shore of Cuba, but that seems like aeons ago.

ParrishNStPeteFL
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Sep 27 2005 04:41 PM
Re: watching down the road

Any idea of the time frame for development in the gulf? Doing some traveling around the 13th of October, flying...to Texas.

CoalCracker
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 27 2005 04:47 PM
Re: watching down the road

Yes, it's hard to believe that it was only about 10 weeks ago we were holding our breath with Emily. Besides breaking weather records, this year's also breaking storm weariness records. For those interested, my son and family are fine as is their home in Houston. He returned yesterday from his in laws in Fort Smith, AR and returned to work at the Barbours Cut Container Terminal this morning at the Port of Houston. Port facilities reopened today to truck traffic and to daylight ship traffic with 35 or less feet of draught. Coast Guard is still checking the Houston ship channel to ensure all navigational aids are working properly and that there are no hazards to navigation. There are dozens of tankers and container ships waiting offshore for the all clear. Looks like he'll be pulling 12 to 16 hour days until things get back to normal.

satellite steve
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 27 2005 05:17 PM
Re: watching down the road

Should 99L develop it would be long gone from the GOM by the second week of October

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 27 2005 05:31 PM
Re: watching down the road

The convection with 99L has died down somewhat in the last couple of hours. The system has improving outflow, but it may wait until tonight (assuming the usual nocturnal increase in convection occurs) to take another step forward, it it does at all.

satellite steve
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 27 2005 05:59 PM
Re: watching down the road

2 Hurricane Hunter missions sched tomorrow to evaluate 99L - as noted ocean temps are well warm enough to support a storm - shear is forecast to decrease and will likely have a tropical depression in 24 hrs

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 27 2005 06:14 PM
Re: watching down the road

Actually it looks better organized to me this aft, with a center at about 17N 77.6W. It is coming tog fast and the water it is approaching, just south of Jamaica and Cuba, are the warmest in the entire Carribean; I expect a TD shortly, and a TS shortly after that.

Convergence
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 27 2005 06:22 PM
Re: watching down the road

Yes, this kind of structure seems to be a transitional stage between disturbance and well-formed cyclone.

As an aside, Typhoon Longwang is now pointing directly at China. Yes, that's what I said.


Hootowl
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 27 2005 06:22 PM
Re: watching down the road

CoalCracker - good to hear your family is fine.
Has anyone heard from BeaumontTX yet? I'm sure he hasn't been able to get to his home at this point. Heard they are still turning people away from that area.
99L is a Bear Watch IMO. Possibly south Texas. I know they need the rain (so do we) but hopefully it will only be a TD/TS. Have watched the models today. All confused. I can't get a good handle on anything. I do think we might get something from the African coast - most models are supporting "something" but not in the near future. I've got this nagging feeling but can't quite figure it out. I "heard" someone say we may be in for a surprise in October/November - hopefully not a large one. I'm done with this season. This used to be fun.

God bless everyone. (especially the gulf coast)

Time to spend some family time. See you all tomorrow.

p.s. just heard the local met say that we will have a TD tomorrow.


javlin
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 27 2005 06:45 PM
Re: watching down the road

Even though the models are not picking up 99L as of yet look to them for guidence in ridge development for possible track.Then use some other tools like the sst's and wind shear maps to get some kind analyisis.

oil trader
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 27 2005 06:53 PM
Re: watching down the road

Quote:

Actually it looks better organized to me this aft, with a center at about 17N 77.6W. It is coming tog fast and the water it is approaching, just south of Jamaica and Cuba, are the warmest in the entire Carribean; I expect a TD shortly, and a TS shortly after that.




If you do not want a $5 price of gallon I hope you are wrong. What we need the least now it is a hurricane over the Bay of Campeche. Everybody is so confident about Rita damages because it was not Katrina. But during her path in GOM over oil and gas rigs and platforms Rita was CAT 5 and mostly CAT 4 (remember Ivan?), and do not forget TX/LA border refineries. Economic consequences and real pain on American pockets starts tomorrow with the DOE stock weekly report. We can deplete the SPR, but where the light crude (not sour) and the gas will came from? Below $4 keep your tank full and drive as less as you can.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 27 2005 07:00 PM
Re: watching down the road

I agree as the oil has dropped in price per barrel but the refineries make gasoline out of the oil and the refineries did take a beating. However, the US is going to have to pay the consequences of depending on oil so much. As for the storm, we will pray for small rain makers rather than large news makers.

Reaper
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 27 2005 07:28 PM
Re: watching down the road

Is there a new area of rotation just off the coast of Panama City, Fl?


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Tue Sep 27 2005 07:50 PM
Re: watching down the road

Our local news pointed out that there is a weak surface low with an upper level low just south. We currently are experiencing thunderstorms and nice rain. They are not making much out of it.

Reaper
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Sep 27 2005 08:15 PM
Attachment
Re: watching down the road


I couldn't figure out how to get an animation in the post, but this is the area I was posting about:


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 27 2005 08:17 PM
Re: watching down the road

Quote:

Is there a new area of rotation just off the coast of Panama City, Fl?





If it's the area I think you're talking about (Your next post didn't show an area that I could tell), I think that's the area Ch. 10's John Edd Thompson mentioned at the 5:30pm news... he said it was part of the remnants of Rita. Didn't seem to be a big deal to him.

If it does reform.... no, it's not going to reform.


Allison
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 27 2005 08:17 PM
Re: watching down the road

Quote:

Has anyone heard from BeaumontTX yet? I'm sure he hasn't been able to get to his home at this point. Heard they are still turning people away from that area.




BeaumontTX wrote late last week and said she was evacuating to Lufkin at least through the weekend... I don't know where she is now....

Jefferson County is indeed shut down... my grandparents (also from Beaumont) evacuated and, like most everyone else, have no idea whether their house is still standing... no one can get in to find out anything... so we're moving them into our condo in Galveston for a few months while the area gets back on its feet....

Here's hoping 99L doesn't drive them out again... or anyone else for that matter...


StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 27 2005 08:31 PM
Re: watching down the road

I don't see much of anything organizing around 99L yet, but the area around 45W 28N is starting to look interesting.

CoalCracker
(Weather Hobbyist)
Tue Sep 27 2005 08:54 PM
Re: watching down the road

Hootowl,

I left Beaumont a PM on Sunday wishing her well. Last time I heard from her was about 2AM Friday morning. At that time, she was ready to leave with her pets for Lufkin where she had a hotel reservation. Not sure where she is or how she fared. Hopefully, she, her pets and her home did okay. Will follow up when I hear.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 27 2005 09:36 PM
Re: watching down the road

The deep convection associated with 99L has practically disappeared, but that could just be temporary. There is enough of a disturbance there that convection will probably refire at some point, which could push the system further towards becoing a depression.

There is a weak surface low in the NE Gulf. Given the unfavorable upper-level winds and the bone-dry air aloft coming into the Gulf, any tropical development out of that system will be virtually impossible.


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Tue Sep 27 2005 10:30 PM
all day in miami they said tomorrow conditions would be favorable

Or more favorable.

Last night this time it looked like a big fuss over nothing..roared back this morning.

I do see signs of a very, early.. "maybe" circulation.

Miami tv playing it up big.. as you can imagine though they insist will go off to the yucatan.

Lets see how it looks in the morning...


TheElNino
(Registered User)
Tue Sep 27 2005 10:41 PM
Tropical System Off of Central Florida Next Week

Some of the latest models are showing a tropical system making a Central Florida landfall about a week from now.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/%7Egadomski/CMCTROPATL_12z/cmc120.html

The latest European Model on Accuweather's Pro site is also picking up on this.

This is likely the tropical wave/low pressure that is currently at 46W 15N. Too soon to tell how strong this will be but we'll definitely need to keep our eye on it for those here in Central Florida.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Tue Sep 27 2005 10:46 PM
Re: all day in miami they said tomorrow conditions would be favorable

From the latest TWO:

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NEAR JAMAICA AND HAITI... AND
OVER ADJACENT CARIBBEAN WATERS. EVEN THOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS GREATLY DECREASED THIS EVENING... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT... AND THIS
SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW... IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.


HanKFranK
(User)
Tue Sep 27 2005 11:34 PM
no rush

99L had it's central convection from this morning puff out this afternoon into a radial half-ring near jamaica and to the east. that all went earlier this evening and now it's barely got any, just that mid-level swirl over the broad surface gyre from earlier. the stuff in the middle may redevelop overnight or it may just pitter around tomorrow... wednesday may be too earlier for it to be classified based on how quickly it's responding. same basic situation as earlier, though... slow track towards the yucatan and probably development by thursday. the ncep official has it lingering around the yucatan into next week, so this thing may only trudge... but my best bet is that it's further along and closer to a mexican or texas landfall by then.
out in the central atlantic near 14/46 that little low remnant from 98L now has some nearby convection.. albeit sheared convection. there's a weak ridge trying (probably in vain) to build over it. it's going to plod along generally wnw and end up south of bermuda around the weekend... the shortwave drawing it up should pull out and strong ridging should build overhead. globals take the energy west towards the southeast from there... none are showing much more than a surface trough, but i'm suspecting it'll be something more bothersome.
little low off the panhandle doesn't have a chance as it's getting choked out by very strong subsidence. stuff showing on the gfs in the eastern atlantic is make-believe (rare for stuff to form east of 40w after the last week of september).
anywho, if i remember anything from bastardi's teleconnection ideas.. that typhoon running at the ryukyu islands right now would teleconnect to something dashing at the southeast a few days hence. the system at 14/46 isn't anything close to a problem right now, but based on the pattern similarity it's got the hackles up a little.
HF 0334z28september


Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 28 2005 09:05 AM
Re: Watching the Caribbean

Hi, everyone. We are at my sister's in Houston. We evacuated to Lufkin, TX and stayed there for
four nights. The hotel, La Quinta, gave us and other evacuees extended stays and then kicked us out and gave our rooms to the State Farm Disaster Relief Team. Fortunately, we had a place to go but some of the people didn't.
Beaumont suffered extensive damage. Lots of trees down and metal buidlings torn up. We were lucky.
We lost one tree and it fell over the driveway. Our fence is down and some roof shingles are gone.
Rita tore down an old playscape I had wanted to tear down anyway. But there is a lot of roof damage and
so some homes are not livable. My friend stayed through the storm and she said it was scary. Supposedly,
we had up to nine hours of 90 mile per hour sustained winds with higher gusts. Anyway, this is one report
I heard. Power lines are down everywhere. My brother--in-law, who lives in Nederland lost several sheds
and his front porch. The storm came in east of Sabine Pass, Texas and so Louisiana got the worst of
it with storm surch. So we all feel lucky. The authorities are not letting us back into Beaumont (although
some are managing to get in). They are saying now it could take up to a month for electricity to be restored.
One of the sad things is we had 16,000 new residents from the Katrina disaster. The kids were enrolled
in school and were just getting used to their new home and now they are displaced again. Another
sad thing is a lot of people still left pets behind and with all of the fences down some were running loose.
One of my husband's friends (who stayed) had made a makeshift fence and was rounding them up. Federal assistance has been SLOW but hopefully the visit by the President yesterday will help. Anyway, I am glad
to have access to a computer again as I missed the site. I am praying for all of the people displaced by this
storm, and especially the ones in Louisiana whose homes were completely destroyed.


Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 28 2005 09:41 AM
Re: Watching the Caribbean

Glad to hear you survived OK, but sorry to learn of your damage and inability to return home.

GEScott71
(Registered User)
Wed Sep 28 2005 10:41 AM
Re: Watching the Caribbean

Hi Beaumont,
Glad to hear you are OK! The board has been wondering. I feel a certain kinship with Beaumont because that is where we evacuated to during Hurricane Frances last year. My brother lived in Houston and had friends in Beaumont who had stall space for our 4 horses.

Everyone in the Beaumont area was so friendly and helpful when we were the evacuees; it is so sad to see the area get hit just 1 year later. It looks like you certainly got it worse than we did from Frances and Jeanne last year. I hope everyone recovers OK.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Wed Sep 28 2005 11:24 AM
Re: no rush

The recon flight into 99L has been cancelled for today, but another is scheduled for tomorrow morning if necessary. Convection has increased somewhat this morning, though it still doesn't look terribly organized. The latest TWO mentions that a weak surface low has formed on the SW portion of the wave axis.

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 28 2005 11:40 AM
Re: no rush

Quite a bit of model divergence on where this might go:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png


Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 28 2005 11:53 AM
Re: no rush

If this develops are we looking at a TS or hurricane down the line? Also, what part of Mexico/Texas are you
looking at for an eventual landfall if it develops?


Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 28 2005 12:03 PM
Re: Watching the Caribbean

Oops! It is storm "surge". By the way, Rita left a path of destruction all of the way up into deep Southeast
Texas. So many with downed trees and no electricity or water. All of these HUGE trees just taken up by
the roots and pushed over. The storm knocked out electricity in Lufkin and we watched from the hotel
as it ripped off part of a fence and felled a tree. Anyway, we are fine, just would like to go home but there
are so many people in the same "boat". Thanks for asking about us.


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Wed Sep 28 2005 12:21 PM
Re: Watching the Caribbean

The sun-sentinel had an interesting article about hurricanes today. The prediction is 2 in October with one being a najor. It also talks about a few other items of interest. It can be found at www.sun-sentinel.com

LisaMaria65
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Sep 28 2005 12:43 PM
Re: Watching the Caribbean

Quote:

Oops! It is storm "surge". By the way, Rita left a path of destruction all of the way up into deep Southeast
Texas. So many with downed trees and no electricity or water. All of these HUGE trees just taken up by
the roots and pushed over. The storm knocked out electricity in Lufkin and we watched from the hotel
as it ripped off part of a fence and felled a tree. Anyway, we are fine, just would like to go home but there
are so many people in the same "boat". Thanks for asking about us.




So glad to hear you are ok!!

Rita was so bad for so many areas in Louisiana. Just a stone's throw from me, areas are flooded. I'm worried about one of the posters here, HeyNow. He is from Abbeville, which was under water pretty much everywhere. So many little towns were or still are under water....it just breaks my heart. In Lafayette, we were very lucky. A lot of down trees, a few on houses but nothing too major.

I hope that 99L doesn't progress into anything more than just 99L. I also hope the rest of the season is un-eventful. Our gulf shores don't need any more disasters for a VERY LONG time!!


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 28 2005 01:09 PM
Re: Watching the Caribbean

It is amazing what the high winds can do. Talked to my brother briefly this weekend and he told me that when they were getting the really high sustained winds from (most likely the eyewall or just to the east of) Katrina, that he saw a large roof lift off of a BP gas station and then fly along as if it was a rock being skipped on a pond. Afterwards when he was in the westernmost part of the county he saw a lot of evidence of extreme winds, really odd things.

Roofs seem to be constructed so that they stay in one piece. I saw many roofs from the NOAA images that had been pushed just past the debris line, from houses the surge had demolished.

Also - in Gov Barbour's recent speech to the state legislature, he spoke of 35 foot storm surge from Katrina. Anyone hear any official numbers to support anything over 30 feet?


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 28 2005 03:52 PM
Re: Watching the Caribbean

well been following this little low for a few days... now it's tracking wnw and it is too close to the coast to do anything and it's somewhat related to rita.... the part that broke off and went over the fl panahandle..... looks pretty cool on RSO sat pics .... it should come ashore near the area they don't need rain... southern Miss. and eastern LA.....

MapMaster
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 28 2005 04:46 PM
Re: Watching the Caribbean

Yes, cool little low. Good thing it won't (I hope) have a chance to blossom.

Meanwhile, the Carib looks ready to go.

MM


MapMaster
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 28 2005 04:48 PM
Re: Watching the Caribbean

I don't know about 35 ft...but FIVE people drowned ON TOP OF the Kmart in Waveland....they recovered an alliagtor our of there too.

35 ft is in the realm of possibility. Incredible...literally.

MM


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Wed Sep 28 2005 05:30 PM
Re: Watching the Caribbean

That little low in the Gulf actually got a mention in the latest TWO:

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEAS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HONDURAS. THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS SLOWLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW
MORNING... IF NECESSARY. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS FORMED IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT 70
MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE ALABAMA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWESTWARD.


Rich B
(British Meteorologist)
Wed Sep 28 2005 05:48 PM
Re: Watching the Caribbean

Just took a quick look at the Mobile, AL, radar and that little low is actually giving some pretty hefty rainfall in its skeletal bands. It is really too close to land, and moving closer, so nothing significant likely to develop - but interesting how it has blossomed this afternoon.

The Caribbean disturbance (99L) looks like it could really set off if it organises a little more and actually persists this time. However, we arent likely to see much from it til later tonight or early tomoro if it holds together. It certainly looks like it has a better shot now than it has had for the past 24 hours. Certainly something to keep a close eye on.

Regards


zmdz01
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Sep 28 2005 05:49 PM
Re: Watching the Caribbean

Recent T numbers on 99L are up from "Too Weak" to "1.0/1.0". We need to keep an eye on this one.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Wed Sep 28 2005 06:37 PM
Re: Watching the Caribbean

Last few runs of the NAM have been developing a system and taking it to the Yucutan in about 72 hours. The GFS continues to do basically nothing with 99L. The latest GFS run (18Z) appears to try to develop something out of the convection currently developing on and north of Cuba, which seems to have more to do with the upper low over Florida than with 99L. While there is some enhanced convection north of Cuba in the SW Bahamas, the chances of anything developing there seem much more remote than in the vicinity of 99L.

Ryan
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 28 2005 06:49 PM
TD15--EPAC

well if it follows NHC's path, it will go into the Bahia Totugas as TS Otis, that would be the first in a while huh?..what do people think of this?

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Wed Sep 28 2005 07:18 PM
Re: Watching the Caribbean

Quote:

Last few runs of the NAM have been developing a system and taking it to the Yucutan in about 72 hours. The GFS continues to do basically nothing with 99L. The latest GFS run (18Z) appears to try to develop something out of the convection currently developing on and north of Cuba, which seems to have more to do with the upper low over Florida than with 99L. While there is some enhanced convection north of Cuba in the SW Bahamas, the chances of anything developing there seem much more remote than in the vicinity of 99L.




...Yeah, it's gonna be real real hard to get the models to do much with a tropical wave that merely has a weak gyre closed on its axis somewhere... For one thing, the disturbance is not deep enough in the atmosphere for the dynamicals models to latch onto.. That is why the GFDL (for example) is the weakest of them all, like it was with both Katrina and Rita, but as soon as they became vertically integrated in the troposphere, boom!

...I'm actually disappointed in the Cape Verde season this year...Everything's been a Bahama Bomber...


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Wed Sep 28 2005 07:29 PM
Re: Watching the Caribbean

Man, just lookin' at that Mobile radar...That's got to be about the most torturous thing anyones ever seen... We are less than a month out of a the most elaborate Natural enormity the West has seen probably since Galveston Disaster, and here we are with this rotating thing....mocking the mouth of the Mississippi...


Also, should anything labor to existence from 80W/17N it would certainly be quite plausible that it would end up in the Gulf... I wonder if we can actually make the entire shore of the Gulf of Mexico (some 3 thousand whatever miles of it) unlivable by the holidays...


Frank P
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 28 2005 07:38 PM
Katrina's surge...

Two interesting facts that I can validate regarding Katrina's surge...

My front Oaks had severe debris marks from surge at the29-30 foot level... more impressive is the pecan tree in my backyard... which even amazed me that it is still standing... it had some serious debris damage from the surge that was measured by my clean up crews who were cutting some damaged limbs on the pecan tree at 35 feet above sea level... this WAS NOT wind damage but the debris from the houses that were being demolished along the beach front...


SMOKE
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Sep 28 2005 07:44 PM
Re: Watching the Caribbean

I'm sure that Low south of Mobile is causing some minor concern and perhaps thoughts of 'should have gone to church more'.
The LLI scheduled for the AM should provide a better feel for this disturbance's chances. It's shallow but if does develop and move into Mexico .... <sigh> man, tough on the psyche. Mental fortitude now a PASS/FAIL requirement for gulf coast inhabitants.


HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Sep 28 2005 07:51 PM
rita jr, 99L, and the precursor

been watching this pattern unfold, trying to prog what would happen from days out. about a week ago i was thinking the se caribbean would supply what we would see as the early october ridge is ready to set up over the east u.s./western atlantic. idea has changed nominally as the current 99L has gone through most of the caribbean, and has slowed and is trying to develop north of honduras now. was thinking we'd have two storms to worry about next week, and i think i've got the evolution figured out now. here goes.
it's not a real development threat but just an item of interest, because the rita shear-off remnant idea worked. that little piece of energy that was deposited off the fl panhandle yesterday in rita's wake has developed a little surface low that has wended nw towards the mississippi coast today. it's weak and in a high-subsidence environment, but the little thing showed up nonetheless.
bigger concern is 99L, which is very slowly organizing into a tropical cyclone. the system has had a surface low for three days now, but convection has consistently not concentrated near the center, flaring to the east repetitively. today the overall organization is a little better, though i'd still hesitate to call it a depression. if the stuff near the center winks out overnight look for thursday to be another day in limbo with a half-formed system moving slowly wnw or nw in the caribbean. best bet is that it does finally develop. models are inconsistent with its future movement, but i'd bet on a cross-yucatan/western gulf track, and a very slow one at that. the yucatan is probably going to see flooding out of this one... and it could eventually end up in texas later next week.
the precursor is what i'm calling the system i'm expecting to form off the east coast next week. i've seen the pattern that is trying to make something be there coming for a while, but haven't been sure what trigger the system would develop around. think i've spotted it today. earlier i was looking for a wave interacting with the shortwave energy that gets left as that fast-moving frontal system moves off the east coast and lifts out over the weekend... but the wave energy to the southeast has been blown hither and yon by those elongated troughs deep in the tropical atlantic along 50-60w. a little bit of that may make it up, but now i'm becoming convinced that the little swirl firing convection near 28/73 is what will meet with the shortwave energy and get trapped under the ridge next week. a load of the globals are showing an inverted trough/hybrid system moving towards the southeast mid/late next week... nogaps in particular sees the weak little low there now (under a sheared/diffluent atmosphere as the florida upper low lifts out northeast) getting picked up briefly by the front and left behind to press against the ridge. by sunday or monday i'm expecting this to either be a closed deepening storm or a very sharp trough... and it ought to run west towards either florida or up to the carolinas depending on how much the shortwave initially grabs it and how the ridge evolves next week. i don't entirely trust the evolution since it isn't showing a tropical cyclone crossing the yucatan yet. when it gets that system in the mix i'll have a better idea where the precursor might go. if it's any hint, the typhoon (longwang.. not joking) running the ryukyu islands and chinese coast next week teleconnects to a system running westward towards the southeast).
anyhow, in case any of that's over anybody's head, here's what i'm reckoning on:
the system in the caribbean will develop and move slowly nw. may eventually target texas or north mexico later next week.
another system will likely form off the east coast and run westward as long as the ridge holds. i'm expecting it will be a tropical cyclone and that it will reach the coast also late in the week.
down the road gfs is showing more activity in the gulf/caribbean. i think it's losing a grip on the pattern past ten days, so not going to speculate yet on whether those are legit possibles.
HF 2351z28september


essan
(Registered User)
Wed Sep 28 2005 08:45 PM
Re: watching down the road

So is it safe to say a new storm is soon going to develop?

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 28 2005 08:52 PM
Waveland

Quote:

I don't know about 35 ft...but FIVE people drowned ON TOP OF the Kmart in Waveland....they recovered an alliagtor our of there too.
35 ft is in the realm of possibility. Incredible...literally.
MM




I used to work the Bay St Louis/ Waveland area, and I find it hard to believe that someone on the top of the Kmart building would/ could drown.
The intersection SW of the building is benchmarked at 14ft above sealevel. and the contour north of the store,(running east to west) is at 10ft above sea level.
The roof would be in the 30-34ft above sea level range.
The closest body of water to the store would be the GOM Beach(SSE) at 1.4nm. And the Bay of St Louis(NE) at 1.5nm.
I've seen Frank's pictures and I know that the water did reach these heights at his house. But that was around 100yds or less from the Gulf of Mexico (Mississippi Sound).


SC Bill
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Sep 28 2005 09:17 PM
Re: rita jr, 99L, and the precursor

HF-

Over my head? Please, I'm right with you . . . . got it. My thoughts exactly.

Actually, please just let me know when I should start packing the car.

if it shows up this weekend, i'd consider it. it's kinda out on a limb for now, though.. this could happen differently. -HF


Ryan
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 28 2005 09:29 PM
Re: rita jr, 99L, and the precursor

HF, YOU WROTE THIS: "another system will likely form off the east coast and run westward as long as the ridge holds. i'm expecting it will be a tropical cyclone and that it will reach the coast also late in the week."

i was wondering that if that storm developes, where would it head...you said westward which is toward land im just wondering where on the coast...today on the local news channel, they had a if LI was to be hit by a cat. 3 hurricane my town(noth shore of nassau county) would most likely be under 19 feet of water and the south shore by jones beach, the water will go as far inland as i think they said 10 miles..thats a crazy scary thought...im just hoping we are spared like we have been for a good number of years now.

i'm not certain, just see a strong potential for this thing to exist next week. if it does pop up, more than likely it will go in south of hatteras. big ol' ridge is going to be parked over the northeast. -HF


MapMaster
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 28 2005 09:29 PM
Re: Waveland

Verified...by the DMAT (field hospital) there, in the K-Mart parking lot, and through other sources in MS.

MM


MapMaster
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 28 2005 09:46 PM
Re: Waveland

Just food for thought...KMart is less than 2 miles from the Gulf; I-10, miles further north, had watermarks 2 feet from the top of the embankment (saw them myself and documented by survey pics) AND in some spots, I-10 was OVERTOPPED and there are debris lines in the trees 100 feet PAST the interstate, higher than the road. And debris from waves hanging in the trees...

In some spots, we saw watermarks in the median of the highway....

How did that happen? Water flowed UNDER the interstate where there was a drainage way and piled up against the trees, and then against the NORTH side of the enbankment when it tried to drain BACK to the Gulf- the interstate acted as a dam, water actually flowed back OVER it going out, in some places. And, the constriction (overpass) increased the velocity. The overpass at 603 and I-10 in Hancock was undermined by the velocity flow...emergency work had to be done to fill in the embankment...miles from the Gulf. This is only about a mile or so SOUTH of the Hancock relocated EOC (at the school), btw.

If I hadn't seen it, I too would dismiss it...but it really happened...will be studied for years as THE worst storm surge in American history due to a hurricane storm.

How high was that.?...at least 35 feet, probably higher in spots. With wave action on top in some locations.

Amazing, but true..I saw this myself, as did other members of my team.

MM


TheElNino
(Registered User)
Wed Sep 28 2005 09:54 PM
Attachment
Waveland K-Mart Photo

I was recently at the K-Mart parking lot in Waveland a couple of weekends ago. I took this photo while I was there.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Wed Sep 28 2005 11:02 PM
Re: Waveland K-Mart Photo

Facinating info MapMaster!

Here is the NOAA high-res image that includes the KMart (as luck would have it I hit it on the first try):

http://ngs.woc.noaa.gov/storms/katrina/24431500.jpg

For what it is worth...there does appear to be mud and debris on the roof of the KMart, although other nearby rooftops appear to be pristine.

There was that story floating around here a day or two after Katrina about a woman reporter who, supposedly on I-10, stopped at the BSL exit and the exti ramp went off into a lake. (Later note: that exit is over land that is only 5 ft above sea level).

When considering water height inland, remember that elevation is key. A water source such as the Pearl River or St Louis Bay might have been nearby. Hancock County is very shallow for a good ways inland, so being inland does not necessarily imply a higher elevation.

Well LSU measured 29 feet officially for Waveland, and then a different group in Waveland measured 30 ft. I'd sure like to know some other numbers if there are some higher than 30, because that would be the new record. It seems likely though, because Biloxi did get 30 ft, and the strong northern eye wall was centered just to the west of Waveland, with the western winds driving the storm surge parallel to shore into a dead end (the curve of land at the edge of the MS coastline) right at the Waveland / Clermont Harbor area.

I do believe the Biloxi number of 30 ft because of my brother's experience of seeing 1 ft of water at a 25 ft elevation 3.5 mi NNE of the tip of Biloxi just in from Back Bay (the St Martin substation). So it would not be at all surprising if Waveland/BSL got a higher surge.

We do know that the BSL courthouse at 30 ft had a wall eroded either by surge or by waves and debris on top of the surge.

OK at this point I'm speculating that surge coming from the GOM, meeting the surge coming inland from the bay, could have risen higher than the surge height, right at that point, for a short time, and could have washed things up onto high points such as the tops of buildings in that area. If so it would likely have been a very narrow point where the waters met, and so that might explain why one roof coiuld have been topped, but not another nearby.

The debris line from the GOM does not go in any further than the railroad tracks, for the most part, in Waveland, but it is clear that the entire area was under water to some extent because of the pools of water and the mud covering streets, etc, inland of the tracks, in the NOAA images. Remember Frank P finally found parts of his home much further in than the debris line along the GOM in Biloxi.

Note: the KMart is at a 10 foot elevation...that "14" on the topozone map is not an elevation number (there are a lot of other numbers on those maps that I don't know what they are referring to).

By the way -- having come across a lot of elevation numbers that were inflated in various stories...apparently the BSL courthouse is on Court St practically on the bay, about 500 ft from shore. Elevation maps show it is not at 30 feet as specified. It is between 20 and 25 ft, and looks to be closer to 20 ft in elevation. So I am hoping that the actual courthouse the Hancock County EOC stayed in was some other location and not the one that I found. But I think that it is the one.

Do you know what...except for a tiny little stretch of land over 25 ft nearby, there just isn't anything higher in all of BSL and Waveland; not until you get north of I-10, which is unincorporated. There were simply no structures for the Hancock County EOC or other support orgs to use except those in the city.

That is why it was absolutely critical to determine the height of the surge. They had to go by the NOLA NWS HLS (Hurricane Local Statements). Remember that 1) Katrina was forecast to hit at least 15 miles more to the west than it did, and 2) the flood forecase of 18-22ft...up to 25 ft "near and close to the center" (which was changed to a max of 28 ft only at the 5:45pm Sunday HLS) for any other hurricane in anyone else's experience certainly would not have been more than 5-10 miles to the east of the center. By the time it was determined the center was going to hit to the west of Waveland, at the MS/AL border, it was much too late to pick up the EOC and other agencies and try to move elsewhere, as winds had started picking up a couple of hours earlier.

The problem with these low-lying counties like Hancock and Jackson is that there are very few places that are above a Cat 5 surge level, and those places are inland with little development, far from the coastal cities, and even in that small-town environment are known as the backwoods or boonies area. So there are really no structures to pull back to out of the storm surge area. Sheriff's depts will have to consider rebuilding some secondary structure in these rural areas. For surges that would be at the Cat 5 level, all of the county, possibly even emergency personnel, would have to be evacuated anyway because it would end up mostly underwater like Cameron County in LA did.

Now that I've reviewed elevation height for Hancock County I can see that surge wouldn't have to be over 30 feet to cause that kind of devastation.


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Wed Sep 28 2005 11:17 PM
Re: rita jr, 99L, and the precursor

what is more amazing than the actual 1938 event its self is the fact that civility returned in such droves in the decades that followed, so that by the turn of this century population and construction was/is many times over in greater magnitude than the 1938.

long island is a particularly primed location for a tempest with a bad attitude; moreover, new york city could suffer a fate as dire as new orleans should a cat 3 hurricane be moving rapidly up the coast and then quasi-hook nw into the bite waters that nexus ne new jersey with the western end of long island. that area would effectively funnel the storm surges impinging on both coastlines into that "v", which would then spill (probably) a 20+ foot storm surge into downtown manhatten and surrounding areas. the entire infrastructure of the city would be toast. think of that...high voltage lines, telecommunications, subways, not to mention contaminants, all under 20 feet of sea water while 120mph wind gusts are funneling between the dangerously rocking sky-scrapers...probably shedding huge amounts of glass and peripheral construction components in a rain of utter chaos and terror. and, it could actually take more lives for shear process of population densities. anything going over the arm of the island would simply be awesome in this day and age...
low probability event. it's hard to get a cat 3 that far north unless it's moving fast. really fast movers don't have quite the surge, usually. but yeah, there is a lot of real estate to wreck up thataway, but strong hurricanes approaching western new england are pretty rare, because you need a really high latitude ridge and a trough coming along at just the right time to draw it due north across the cool coastal waters fast enough for it to still be strong. -HF


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 29 2005 12:59 AM
Re: Waveland

That's really an exit at 43 and I-10. If you take 43 north, then you hit 603 north of Kiln (the exit might say 603 on it though).

Anyway...the land that exit is on is at 5 ft elevation. So even if I-10 was 25 feet higher it would still only jibe with the 30-ft surge number.

The damage from the surge there is not surprising and probably doesn't have to do with velocity so much...water is quite heavy. One cubic foot is about 62 pounds, and a cubic yard weighs as much as a car. Water doesn't compress for all practical purposes. For this reason moving water packs quite a large force, which can do seemingly amazing things (such as in Mobile float an oil rig downriver and wedge it under a high bridge).

So...with all the water towers that have survived, I'm wondering if the new model for successful beachfront homes is steel girders sunk into the ground and a house built to withstand strong winds that can be raised and lowered on that framework. Not cheap, but would it work. I think the houses that were already on wooden piers washed away because they weren't high enough above the surge and coastal waves.


Ryan
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Sep 29 2005 04:06 PM
Re: rita jr, 99L, and the precursor

Quote:

low probability event. it's hard to get a cat 3 that far north unless it's moving fast. really fast movers don't have quite the surge, usually. but yeah, there is a lot of real estate to wreck up thataway, but strong hurricanes approaching western new england are pretty rare, because you need a really high latitude ridge and a trough coming along at just the right time to draw it due north across the cool coastal waters fast enough for it to still be strong. -HF




i hope your right HF about that ebcuase i mean 1038 was supposedley a cat 3 and so was gloria if i am correct, i also think with global warming the high of the water temp up here was like 75, thats unusual up here..and also, about the system you expect to for off of the coast..you said it was supposed to go in south of hatteras..as a weak storm do you have any imput on the strenght..thanks...Ryann



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