MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 11:43 AM |
Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Tropical Storm Tammy forms off the East Central Florida coast, tropical storm warnings up.
Tropical Storm warnings are up from Cocoa Beach, northward to the south santee River in South Carolina.
Tammy is quickly moving north northwest, bringing much rain and wind to east and northeastern Florida and eventually Georgia and South Carolina Some portions of the east coast will feel Tropical Storm force winds, but most of the activity remains north and east of the center.
Report Tammy conditions in your area here
A spin off area from Stan, near the Yucatan, is also worth watching over the next few days as this has the potential to impact the western coast of Florida. However chances are rather low for things to develop here in the short term.
More to come during the day.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Event Related Links
Jacksonville, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University
StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tammy
Animated model plot of Tammy
93L Yucatan Area
94L
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 11:51 AM |
Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Amazing. I'm surprised without a plane it's a name and not a depression. Then again what's the difference. I'm more interested in what is coming from the Yucatan. Seems like a little spin in the convection on water vapor loop. It's heading NE towards Florida. Don't know if it will amount to anything. At this rate Alpha ain't far away.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 11:58 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Quote:
Amazing. I'm surprised without a plane it's a name and not a depression. Then again what's the difference. I'm more interested in what is coming from the Yucatan. Seems like a little spin in the convection on water vapor loop. It's heading NE towards Florida. Don't know if it will amount to anything. At this rate Alpha ain't far away.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
What the $@*! Where did THAT come from? (I know, it's been there the whole time, I just never expected it to amount to anything). It almost appears as if the whole area - Tammy and the area that is emerging off the Yucatan - is spinning around the ULL that is southeast of me. Maybe that's not such a bad thing for me. The ULL is likely to push Tammy into Georgia/South Carolina, and the would-be Vince into the Keys and then out into the Atlantic... isn't it? Or will the ULL move out of the way and allow "Vince" (if it develops into that) to move northward toward the Panhandle?
Maybe I'll just dig a hole. Looking at the "Visible" imagery on SSD for the GOM... the thing on the Yucatan definately has a spin to it. When it emerges into the Yucatan Channel (presumably later today)... will we have Vince already? The TWO doesn't even mention this, so I assume they don't EXPECT it to amount to anything... but they didn't want to send a plane into what is now Tammy last night, either, so forgive me if I have less faith in the NHC right now than some people...
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 12:06 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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I was going to say that although Tammy will give some one some trouble, the convection coming off the Yucatan is bothersome considering the models and their predictions earlier in the week. There is some untapped water off the Western coast of Florida that has not been turned up or aired out yet. If that little puff ball gets spinning, the west coast of Florida could see more trouble than it has since Charlie Frances and Jean. And, the name? Wilma..........!!!!!!? *Flintstones*
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 12:09 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Quote:
I was going to say that although Tammy will give some one some trouble, the convection coming off the Yucatan is bothersome considering the models and their predictions earlier in the week. There is some untapped water off the Western coast of Florida that has not been turned up or aired out yet. If that little puff ball gets spinning, the west coast of Florida could see more trouble than it has since Charlie Frances and Jean. And, the name? Wilma..........!!!!!!? *Flintstones*
Uh...the name would be Vince. Let's not jump names or they really WILL run out soon.
| orlandocanewatcher |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 12:35 PM |
Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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WOW!! Looks like a busy and wet couple of days for Florida lie ahead. Kinda of had a hunch about Tammy, but the Stan leftovers really look scary, especially looking at the WV loop and where it looks like it is headed.
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 01:16 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Quote:
WOW!! Looks like a busy and wet couple of days for Florida lie ahead. Kinda of had a hunch about Tammy, but the Stan leftovers really look scary, especially looking at the WV loop and where it looks like it is headed.
Yeah, the WV looks like it would suck that thing up along the western end of the peninsula, perhaps going over Key West first..... not a good scenario, and a very uncommon one - a storm coming out of the southwest?! Not the usual path!
| bobbutts |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 01:22 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Not liking the looks of Yucatan storm from where I sit here in Port Charlotte.. To my amateur eye looks like a strengthening tropical system headed in our general direction.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 01:28 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Boy, Tammy is getting no respect from us at all !!!
It's not unusual for late season storms to form in the SW Gulf and move NE.
We can survive the rain. Let's just keep the wind out of here.
| bobbutts |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 01:35 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Fron wunderground blogs:
http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
"Some moisture from Stan has also broken off and emerged into the Yucatan Channel, but wind shear in this region is too high to allow a tropical storm to form."
http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/show.html
"REMNANTS OF STNB APPEWAR TO HAVE FORMED CYCLIONE ALONG MEXICAN WEST COAST
BUT MAJOR ENERGY FOUND OVER YUCATANT THIS AM
THIS HAS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPRT YET -- BUT NOGAPS/GFS REFORM A T.C. TO
THE WEST IN 48 HOURS AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO FOR WEEKEND."
| oklahoma |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 02:01 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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When was the last time North FL or GA was hit by a Hurricane or TS?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 02:08 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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very sissy t.s. edouard hit near daytona in 2002. kyle (also very weak) brushed the coast later in the year, but no actual landfall. t.s. chris made landfall near savannah in 1988. t.s. isabel made landfall near jacksonville in 1985. the last hurricane to make landfall was david in 1979, at savannah. there have been tropical storm conditions brought to the area by systems crossing from the gulf almost as often as atlantic hits.. storms like tammy are not common. there isn't time for it to strengthen much, but it may slow as it gets closer to ga.
HF 1408z05october
| Tropics Guy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 02:43 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Looks like that huge chunk of energy left over from Stan is moving NE off the Yucatan towards South Florida. NWS has a flood watch for our area for heavy rains moving in tomorrow & friday. Hopefully the shear will keep this in check from developing too fast as it moves closer to Fla.
TG
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 02:46 PM |
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TD 19 Making a comeback? and the Stan Rainband
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Around 50W 24N.... I think that's the remains of TD19... Still firing up convection, sheared horribly but it looks like the shear is weakening and ... well... you never know it seems. Anyone elses take on that system?
And I see the Yucatan storm, looks like it's underneath a narrow ridge of high pressure, if it presists...
Be kinda sickening to run out of storm names in the first half of october.
-Mark
| LisaA |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 02:48 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Are there any model plots yet for Stan remnants in the Yucatan? It could be nearing FL W Coast by tomorrow?
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 02:50 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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NHC said last night that it would take very little for a tropical depression or storm to form, which turned out to be the case. There isn't much that a recon plane could have added about the system that wouldn't already be apparent in the radar and surface obs, since the system was so close to the coast. Given the already strong wind field to the north of where the center formed, it was a tropical storm waiting to happen and it happened as soon as there was evidence of a closed circulation. One thing a plane might tell us is the max winds in the NE quadrant. So far, there has been no evidence of tropical storm force winds that I am aware of, and the radar velocities are only maxing out at 40 knots, if that.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 02:57 PM |
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Re: TD 19 Making a comeback? and the Stan Rainband
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Nah, that thing near 24N/50W is an upper-level low, and a quite vigorous one at that. What's left of TD 19 is at about 23N/44W and is being rather ill-defined right now.
Tammy's pretty much behaving as expected (see blog on the main page), albeit moving a little faster. Bumps up landfall by 6-12hr but doesn't change anything else to any large degree.
That area just off of the Yucatan will likely get drawn toward the north and northeast around the periphery of the upper-low over the Gulf and with some ties to Tammy. Development will be hindered by interaction with Cuba and Florida...may serve to trigger something in the Gulf Stream down the line, though.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 02:58 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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I have to say that I really don't like the look of that mass moving up the side of the Yucatan.
It gives me a really bad feeling.
With Tammy moving NW I could see the Yucatan mass moving north into the GOM, intensifying and skirting the western coast of Florida, which would be on it's clean side.
Disclaimer: I'm just a novice so I hope I'm wrong.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 03:03 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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There does seem to be some sort of circulation over the Yucutan, to the west of the very deep convection which has emerged over water. Exactly what this is and to what extent it is directly related to Stan, I'm not sure, but it's there and could develop into something if the circulation remains intact until it emerges over water. Conditions aren't too favorable for intensification, considering that there is a deepening upper low sitting just to its north.
Considering that there is a very large disturbed area of weather, with some tropical and non-tropical development (depending on where you look), the predictability of this whole mess is going to be pretty low.
Edit: The system over the Yucutan is now classified as 93L
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 03:04 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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No plots yet, it is not an invest. Model runs pick something up.Just run the loops and watch the isobars:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 03:07 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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navy site just put up 93L.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 03:13 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Any Dvorak #'s on 93L yet?
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 03:30 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Looks like I posted under the old thread this morning.
Well maybe NHC shouldn't have been so quick to put out the 'last' advis on Stan because I can see rotation in one area of convection that has come off the coast, at about 16N 100W, and it appears that Stan still lives. It appears this is the piece that was the center of the UL circ as it came off the coast. But I could be wrong...
My post from earlier this am (looks like a new stew came of the convection off the Yucatan as well):
Good morning all. Uh oh, the large area of convection remaining over the Yucatan from Stan's strong feeder band that had reached into the Carribean, was not pulled into Mexico, and has quickly moved back into the warm waters of the Carribean south of Cozumel, as Stan dissipated and the remnants moved into the Pacific, and it looks like that low in the GOM could pull it up that direction, if it does not get sheared off into the Carribean south of Cuba -- or in general looks like some of Stan's remnents, or the large amt of energy still in the area, whatever you call it, could move that dir. Ick.
The other area of Stan that had been producing strong convection off Mex SW Pacific coast (fed by the energy of the remnants as they move offshore?) is still going strong.
Tammy is what she is, but it looks like, again, potential for something in the GOM, doesn't it? So many people along MS Gulf Coast still living under a tarp that they're holding up with debris they nailed tog...even the FEMA trailer city that will be complete 8-12 months from now, if it was there today, wouldn't be much shelter from another hurricane.
| ZooKeeper |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 03:33 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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2004 - Bonnie, Jeanne and Frances all came through sections of North Florida. Was there a particular area that you were looking for?
secondary hits is what they were, but then again they probably counted for more. as far as atlantic side systems impacting directly, it's been slim pickings throughout the 20th century. -HF
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 03:38 PM |
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93L
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Buoy 42056 located at 19.9N, 85.0 W recently had the winds shift from the south to the west and increase to 23 knots sustained. This either indicates that there is a surface low located somewhere to its north near the Yucutan channel, or that the deep convection in that area is in the form of a squall line that is producing some gusty outflow winds along its leading flank. Considering the increase in wind speed, the rise in pressure, and the apparent circulation over the Yucutan is still well to the west, the squall line scenario seems more likely. If that is the case, it would not be surprising to see that area of convection weaken or even puff out at some point. Whether or not the circulation still over the Yucutan can redevelop convection and wrap it around the center will determine if this thing develops or not.
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 03:40 PM |
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Re: 93L
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Below are the tropical model runs for 93L:
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.
.....THE FOLLOWING IS A TEST MESSAGE.....
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL932005) ON 20051005 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051005 1200 051006 0000 051006 1200 051007 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.0N 87.0W 21.3N 86.1W 22.8N 85.1W 24.6N 84.4W
BAMM 20.0N 87.0W 21.3N 86.2W 22.7N 85.2W 24.4N 84.1W
A98E 20.0N 87.0W 20.8N 86.3W 22.3N 85.1W 24.1N 84.0W
LBAR 20.0N 87.0W 21.1N 86.5W 22.4N 86.2W 24.3N 85.9W
SHIP 20KTS 29KTS 38KTS 48KTS
DSHP 20KTS 29KTS 38KTS 48KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051007 1200 051008 1200 051009 1200 051010 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.8N 83.9W 32.3N 79.2W 37.5N 70.6W 39.9N 64.0W
BAMM 26.7N 83.1W 31.6N 77.7W 34.6N 70.8W 35.0N 67.6W
A98E 26.5N 83.0W 30.7N 80.9W 33.9N 75.5W 34.8N 72.2W
LBAR 26.3N 86.7W 29.7N 85.3W 32.1N 80.6W 32.6N 76.8W
SHIP 56KTS 65KTS 66KTS 60KTS
DSHP 56KTS 47KTS 47KTS 42KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 20.0N LONCUR = 87.0W DIRCUR = 50DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 19.4N LONM12 = 87.7W DIRM12 = 70DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 19.2N LONM24 = 88.7W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 15KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
.....THE ABOVE HAS BEEN A TEST MESSAGE.....
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 03:45 PM |
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Re: 93L
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Navy just posted 94L as well, anyone know where that may be? WOW busy, busy, busy!
Thanks,
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 03:46 PM |
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Re: 93L
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Wow! Looks like we have a good chance of using up all of the names. I noticed on satellite TS Tammy looked like she was
getting better organized. One question...we have a tree that was twisted by Rita. Looks more like tornado
damage. Some of the damage to the area looks like small
tornadoes hit. Is it possible a number of small tornadoes touched down and were not recorded?
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 03:46 PM |
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Re: 93L
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Here is a link to a graphical representation of the forecast track of the tropical models listed in the SHIPS output above:
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_93.gif
Disregard the UKMET track... that seems to be an earlier run for 92L.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 03:47 PM |
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Re: 93L
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94L is probably the area way out in the Atlantic mentioned in the latest TWO. Here is what the TWO had to say about 93L and the presumed 94L:
AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND EAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED
AT THIS TIME...BUT SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW IN THE AREA. UPPER-
LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED WITH A LARGE TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 1700 MILES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR.
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 03:50 PM |
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Re: 93L
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Thanks for the help!
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 03:51 PM |
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Re: 93L
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And I thought it was supposed to be quiet for a few weeks. Tammy sure got her act together. Question. We have a tree
that looks twisted, like what a tornadoe would do. Could Rita have had little tornadoes come down as she passed over us and
these weren't recorded? Looks like the whole list of names may be used this season, or certainly close to it. How many times
in the past have they used up all of the names?
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 03:54 PM |
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Re: 93L
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94L is at 7.5N/ 35W
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-wv-loop.html
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 03:55 PM |
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Re: 93L
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Quote:
Wow! Looks like we have a good chance of using up all of the names. I noticed on satellite TS Tammy looked like she was
getting better organized. One question...we have a tree that was twisted by Rita. Looks more like tornado
damage. Some of the damage to the area looks like small
tornadoes hit. Is it possible a number of small tornadoes touched down and were not recorded?
Tornado's? You bettcha! We had several not recorded during last years canes. You could tell it was tornados by the path of damage.
Jackie
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 03:56 PM |
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Re: 93L
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Quote:
Question. We have a tree
that looks twisted, like what a tornadoe would do. Could Rita have had little tornadoes come down as she passed over us and
these weren't recorded?
Yeah, little tornadoes are pretty common in the eyewall and immediately near it, and due to the density of the convection in that immediate area they are often missed in the "official recording".
I had a friend's home that suffered a roof-lifting event (which did severe damage to the house) during Ivan - there was no recorded tornado at that location, but the damage to the roof and in her yard was definitely tornadic in nature.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 03:58 PM |
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Re: 93L
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Wow, it's that far south?
That suprises me, I was wondering if it might have been the ULL around 23N 50W.
The season will end... really...
-Mark
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 03:59 PM |
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Re: 93L
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It is certainly possible to get tornado or tornado-like damage near the eyewall. The effect of very strong winds passing over rough terrain and around buildings can generate short-lived swirls that cause a tornado-like damage pattern, though the features in question may not have the vertical depth to be truly classified as tornados.
| crpeavley |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 04:05 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Whats the best guess where the highest sustained winds will be felt from Tammy, when/if she makes landfall? Might make a trip if its worth it, at least 50mph.
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 04:14 PM |
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Re: 93L
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I've been watching the models closely the last couple of days, and the GFS has persistently spun up a system near the Yucatan/Western Cuba and sent it into the west coast of Florida between Tampa and Everglades City with intensification happening rapidly offshore before making landfall. Looks like I might need to dust off the storm panels and keep my bag of wing nuts handy because whatever happens will occur pretty quickly. 56 days to go until 1 December but who's counting.
Just got a quick glimpse of the 12Z GFS models on the NCEP site which thankfully depicts a weaker system than previoiusly advertised.
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 04:17 PM |
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Re: 93L
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I am *really* not liking 93L and what it means for us on the west coast. I'm at work right now and it's hard to look things up...can anyone tell if there is a recon scheduled to check out this invest? Thanks!
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 04:18 PM |
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Re: 93L
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I have been watching the models also, boy they were right! But with the shearing and so forth, what are the chances of seeing 93L turn into a cane?Is it way too early to tell?Guess anything is possible this year
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 04:22 PM |
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Re: 93L
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Well the area near the Yucatan has caught my immediate attention. There is a LLC currently crossing the Yucatan peninsula that should emerge off the east side into the water later today. It will be interesting to see how this reacts when its offshore, particularly if Tammy goes toward the north and doesn't get into the NE GOM. If tht happens, the Yucatan systemwill NOT go toward the panhandle as some models show, but further east toward the Florida peninsula, since it will not get influenced by a southerly flow, but more from the SW. Getting real interesting as we head into the next two weeks, as models have all kinds of scenarios to wind up the hurricane season. The low in the east-central Atlantic looks to be a lamb waiting for slaughter as screaming upper level flow is to its NW. If that doesn't lessen, we won't have to worry about that. But we have enuf on this side of the Atlantic to keep us concerned. Cheers!!
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 04:27 PM |
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Re: 93L
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Yeah, if you look at the WV loop here http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html you can see the ULL in the NE GOM that is backing westward and a bit south.
As that backs it should cut off the dry air being pushed down into the Bay of Campeche and provide a "conduit" for the storm coming off the Yucatan to track into.
This is your path is "least resistance". The $64,000 question is how fast will it back off and to what degree.
If the low was to cut off the dry air entirely and progress west up across LA and towards Texas then this thing could come nearly straight poleward. I don't see that happening as there is strong system brewing in the midsection of the country that is likely to pick this up and suck it out of here - but that also would tend to vector whatever this thing is northward as well, as I expect that this trough diving down is strong enough to get to the gulf over the weekend.
My "best guess" looking at the total pattern picture is somewhere along the west coast of the peninsula, but it could be anything from a minor rain event to something significant (and ugly.)
The dynamics on this one are pretty complex - I'm watching this thing even over this far west (near Destin) and I'd pay close attention anywhere from there to Key West right now, until there's more definition to the upper air pattern and the depth of whatever comes off the Yucatan is better understood.
The big risk area is that it appears there won't be a lot of warning on this from the time it turns into a real threat until it gets where its going.....
I was planning on going to Orlando for some Mouse House time Thursday through Saturday - I suspect that's gonna get rained out and I will likely cancel - tropical or no, it sure looks like we'd be heading right into some pretty significant precip.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 04:46 PM |
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Re: 93L
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yeah i agree, i see the LLC center about to exit the yucatan late this afternoon ......this is going to get interesting in about 12-24hrs.... where this comes out along the coast.... it's really warm water.... it's the actual water that feeds the loop current.... Just looks like florida can't escape any systems.... i think as of right now... 93L looks better than Tammy..... All of the stroms are mainly to the east of the center on tammy....my parents live just north of Jacksonville... across the state line into GA... said surf has been high.. but is RAINED alot!!!!
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_ls_0.html
Radar out of Canun
| Goosus |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 04:48 PM |
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Re: 93L
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I really don't know why no one was talking about this area , 93L, last night (except for Margie).
Yesterday evening, practically the entire Yucatan Peninsula was covered by a bloom of intense convection with the coldest cloud tops the IR registers (all dark grey). I don't know what temperature that correlates to, but it was dwarfing any convection areas associated with Tammy or Stan's remains. If anyone can bring up yesterdays IR images for the area, I've never seen that massive an explosion of super cold clouds, even in say Rita or Katrina. I'm sure some people were getting pounded under that rain.
Here's a question about Stan. Has a storm ever crossed from the Atlantic basin to the Pacific Basin and then crossed back into the Atlantic? I know a few storms have made the trip but have any made a roundtrip?
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 04:58 PM |
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Re: 93L
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I'm sorry if this is a dumb question but is the LLC exiting the Yucatan the same LLC that was Stan? I noticed that the computer models are using the convection on the east side of the Yucatan. If this LLC crosses out will it still be invest 93 or will it be Stan again?
Thanks, Jackie
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 05:25 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: 93L
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it will likely be a different system as the remnants of Stan are currently moving out over the Pacific
also, i have attached a radar of Tammy if anyone is interested
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 05:27 PM |
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Re: 93L
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See how the circulation is looping in the eastern part of the Yucatan? This thing will be quick to get its act together when it enters the NW Carribean/GOM.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 05:37 PM |
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Re: 93L
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Quote:
I'm sorry if this is a dumb question but is the LLC exiting the Yucatan the same LLC that was Stan? I noticed that the computer models are using the convection on the east side of the Yucatan. If this LLC crosses out will it still be invest 93 or will it be Stan again?
Thanks, Jackie
No...read further.
But first -- OK I'm sorry to keep harping on Stan's remnants but will someone please take a look at Floater 1 and tell me if I am seeing things, or does the 2nd group of convection in the Pacific (the one further to the west) also have an element of rotation? It is really hard for me to tell with the other so close by (which BTW is now invest 90E) and the shear pattern. I thought it might earlier today and then thought I better not mention it because you'd all think I was seeing too many things, but it appears that also has a circulation. Jeez Louise.
The LLC of Stan dissipated against the mountains of central Mexico, but the ULC remained fairly intact (IMHO). Yesterday evening two areas of very strong convection formed along what had been a strong feeder band of Stan's that came in from the Pacific. As the ULC moved out this morning, it merged with the rightmost area of convection, which I would call Stan, or Stan2 or whatever.
Yesterday the other strong feeder band had been arcing out of the west of Stan, over the top of the Yucatan, and into the Carribean. As Stan moved inland, that band moved south over the Yucatan and generated some amazing convection. This morning, that pulled away from the weakening circulation of Stan's ULC and started being sucked into the Carribean, where it is moving NE (unfortunately to go over the loop current, but it has no circuation, or so I thought, until it became 93L). Actually -- I don't know if it is that bloom of convection that is 93L, or the LLC some are saying they see moving out of the Yucatan, or if they are the same thing...lack of expertise. Can't find a good close up image of that area now (looks like they're going to run out of floaters!).
Yesterday the future Tammy was being posted to death and so I just kept looking at Stan and kept seeing interesting things happening. Promise until I understand more about 93L I won't say the dreaded words, "loop current."
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 05:42 PM |
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Re: 93L
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The system over the yucitan is mainly a mid-level swirl although there may be some turning of the winds in the lower levels. Its not out of the question that this thing becomes better organized later tonight if the T-Storms persists or compact around what would be a center. There is little to no model support for this as of yet.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 05:42 PM |
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Re: 93L
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Margie,
The circulation that I'm seeing is heading to the tip of the Yuc. I see it the best on this loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
Jackie
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 05:56 PM |
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Re: 94L
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Isn't 94L on page 1 old info ?
Shouldn't it be for the wave around 7.5 N
34.0 W ?
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 06:04 PM |
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Re: 93L
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Looking at the WV loop that Big Kahuna posted at 6:54 I would say that 93L is moving more towards the east and dispersing.
I now feel a bit relieved. I was quite concerned about how it was looking on my previous post.
BTW, what was that event between 90-95W and just above 20N? Just curious.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 06:05 PM |
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Re: 93L
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OK even I can see it. It looks like that is what is forming out of the energy, and that the earlier convection that exited to the right of the Yucatan is going to continue to get sheared off to the SE.
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 06:05 PM |
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Re: 93L
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this link has a better shot. i does look like Stan split.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/epac-wv-loop.html
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 06:09 PM |
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Re: 93L
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There's a definite rotation on the eastern side of the Yucatan - is has come across roughly half the land area of the Yucatan in the last six hours. At that rate of movement it should be over water this evening, at which point we'll find out if it can start to wrap and fire anything up or not...... a large part of that will be determined by whether the ULL over the eastern gulf cuts off the dry air - if not then the shear and dry air should keep this thing from doing much.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 06:11 PM |
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Re: 90L
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Amusingly enough:
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
05/0600 UTC 41.0N 23.2W ST1.5/1.5 90
Who knows anymore...
heh
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 06:11 PM |
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Re: 94L
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Quote:
Isn't 94L on page 1 old info ?
Shouldn't it be for the wave around 7.5 N
34.0 W ?
yes it is. if you look at thi pic on the front page the dates are from September.
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 06:27 PM |
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Re: 90L
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Confused....I see something at that lat but at 32 degrees long, not 23,,,is it a typo, or am I in the wrong place???
That was about 2am....
MM
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 06:28 PM |
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Re: 93L
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I would not be overly concerned about 93L unless it redevelops convection closer to the center of circulation. The old convection seems to be slowly fading as it moves away to the east.
They have scheduled recon flights into 93L for tomorrow, making for a busy recon POD:
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE FLIGHT TWO
A. 06/1500Z A. 07/0300,0900Z
B. AFXXX 01IIA INVEST B. NOAA2 02IIA CYCLONE
C. 06/1230Z C. 07/0130Z
D. 25.0N 84.0W D. 26.0N 83.0W
E. 06/1400Z TO 06/1930Z E. 07/0200Z TO 07/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE
A. 07/1200,1500,1800Z E. 07/1030Z TO 07/1830Z
B. AFXXX 03IIA CYCLONE F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
C. 07/0900Z
D. 27.0N 82.5W
2. TROPICAL STORM TAMMY
FLIGHT ONE
A. 06/1500,2100Z
B. AFXXX 0321A TAMMY
C. 06/1245Z
D. 31.0N 81.0W
E. 06/1330Z TO 06/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: CONTINUE 3-HOURLY FIXES ON SUSPECT
AREA IF IT DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 06:37 PM |
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Re: 90L
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If you look at the visible loop you can see either a mlc/llc around 22n 85w which is on the tip of the Yucatan peninsula. When this approaches the gulf waters it could develop into something or just bring more rain to Florida.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-vis-loop.html
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 06:41 PM |
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Re: 93L
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There is a low-midlevel swirl over the Yucitan, the split the NHC has been talking about,,,last night the blow up was over land with the midlevel circulation....the CDO caused a weak LLC within the midlevel low. Now that the land based T-Storms have come over water, they dissipated, like typical land based storms do. Now when the center emerges just N of cancun we will see if T-Storms refire near and east of the center. The western half is being dryed out with the upper low pushing dry air down into the Yucitan. As this ULL moves w slowly and the LLC moves NNE it will pull moiste air up on its eastern side. Currently nothing more then a TS could happen if anything does happen at all, but if the upper low weakens some and moves into the western gulf states then there might be enough time for it to strengthn more with ssts near 84dg.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 06:45 PM |
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Re: 93L
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Why doesn't the same land-based principle hold for storms coming off Africa during the CV season?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 07:00 PM |
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Re: 93L
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They are part of the ITZ the interaction of the wind fields just N of the equator.... this happens mostly all along it....while typical T-Storms further N will build heat convection then disappate over a different ground mass such as water..... Clark could probably explain it better then me on this. I hate going into detail..sorry.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 07:04 PM |
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Re: 93L
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what does the time table look like on this? i careless about it as what it becomes since nobody on here like me can do but guess.But our local forcast says nice Sunday and that is what i want to know about in the tampa area Sunday.
if all we can do is make guesses of no more value than yours, why bother asking? -HF
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 07:15 PM |
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Re: 93L
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Thanks for the answers. The eyewall did pass over us. I heard one report we had nine hours of 90 mph winds with
higher gusts. Cleanup is going well although a lot still without power. This season has been so active and the storms are still
forming.
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 07:15 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Just a passing comment. Trying to watch the remnants of Stan over the mountains of Mexico, then Tammy, then 93 L, and then whatever lurks in the East Atlantic reminds me of that line in the original Diehard movie when the FBI helicopters get blown up on the top of the building.
"Looks like they're going to need some more FBI guys."
If this keeps up in coming years, looks like we could use some floater satellites.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 07:24 PM |
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Re: 93L
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tammy--going inland near jacksonville/brunswick. might be some t.s. winds along the immediate ga/ne fl coast. good bit of rain on the way, but the system is moving quickly enough that severe flooding is unlikely. it also hadn't rained here since august 30th, so the light rain outside here now is welcome.
93L--well, since tammy isn't looping out into the gulf like the models were generally progging, and the upper low out there isn't looking at all tropical, the energy is concentrating near the yucatan. there's been a good fetch off the pacific for a few days... stan was the benefactor, but now that stan is a surface trough along the mexican pacific coast the stuff is running across a little better. add to that the sharp wind shift from the easterly flow across the gulf and there's a really good convergence area. since the upper low is still backing westward, its diffluent effect should increase over this area.. even bring a little ridging in. should the system move nne ahead of the oncoming shortwave, there is a chance it could form a tropical cyclone and deepen baroclinically as it approaches western florida. still formative right now, but this could range from a rainy low to a solid tropical cyclone. older nogaps runs weren't showing it come up, so it could potentially meander ne or even stall over the gulf. when/if something more substantive shows up we'll have a better idea. the origin of this feature might actually be that disturbance that was on the pacific side of mexico from stan.. that it pulled inland over guatemala.
94L--yeah, why not. the eastern atlantic now has a very low latitude contribution, with healthy convergence and some ridging aloft. it's effectively sheltered from the deepening upper trough over the central atlantic.. for now. at that latitude, any development would be very slow due to weaker coriolis deflection.
near p.r.--nothing doing... the peristent convection in the region has puffed out. if there's any mid level vorticity in the mess it is tailing tammy nw.
former td 19/upper low--se of bermuda theres this amalgam of the upper low at the core of the deep trough in the atlantic, and the swirl from td 19 following it westward. since its trapped under the ridge and has a makeshift surface reflection, am wondering if it will try to dig down. also has the energy from that hybrid that earlier model runs were taking across.. or at least what didn't go into that low near the azores (which recently got a st 1.5 t-rating, but is not tropical).
there ya go, a follow-up to stan, maybe another, and the odd wildcard.
two more names and then we're speaking greek.
HF 1921z05october
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 07:24 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Aren't things supposed to be slowing down by now? And what records have been set this season? Quite a few. I think one
of the most interesting things is how so many times they'd say something was going to dissipate and then well, it didn't.
Really interesting season. I know we are supposed to be in a more active cycle at the moment but I wonder if this active season
trend will continue into the future. Tammy sure got herself together fast.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 07:40 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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looks like to me tammy may have made landfall... or is making landfall with the current center... in the last few hrs.. new storms fired up on the NE side of center...and that may have caused the center to be thrown around...... by looking at the vis shot and not jax radar... i think it would be less that 20 miles off the coast.... i think the 2pm had 20 miles northeast of Daytona Beach.... i do think with the lastest convection... it threw the center or it jogged to the left some... she is just off of St. Augustine
Jacksonville, FL National Weather Service Experimental Radar Loop
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 07:42 PM |
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Can't make sense of the data
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Is Tammy really a closed circulation? There seem to be multiple low level circulations floating around. I was actually puzzled to check my home weather station in Poincianna, just SW of Kissimmee, to see that the pressure has dropped from 1009mb this morning to 1004mb now. Winds are currently out of the WSW-SW. Not the direction I would have expected. Granted she is not really organized.
EDIT: Winds are a bit light at the location, so it may actually be more of a westerly wind now that I take another look.
check another station nearby to see if that isn't an instrument error or fluke. doesn't look right. -HF
| Yikes |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 08:03 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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No landfall yet for Tammy. Projected to be N. FL/S. GA.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 08:04 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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The center of Tammy appears to be very close to the coast, though with the way the storm is structured, the center location is not necessarily that important. With nearly all of the action to the north and east of the center, the center will have to get well inland before significant weakening occurs. The main story appears to be the rain, anyway.
93L is starting to resemble Tammy of a couple of days ago, with an apparent weak surface low or trough that is somewhat removed from the main convection and an upper-level low to its north that is currently shearing the system but may provide a slightly more favorable environment if the ULL digs further west. One difference is that the pressure gradient across the area is not nearly as steep as it was with Tammy, so it will take more surface development than what Tammy needed before cranking up the winds to tropical storm strength. There is also more upper energy and dry air digging into the backside of the system, which may result in more of a hybrid system if anything develops further.
| crpeavley |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 08:26 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Where's the best guess that will see the highest sustained winds from Tammy?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 08:36 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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well was close!
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TAMMY WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 81.2 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND ABOUT 15 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA.
TAMMY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. A TURN TO
THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF TAMMY SHOULD MOVE INLAND IN EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA OR EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 08:40 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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My question is this: What are the chances of 93L becoming a major hurricane? I can deal with a depression, trop storm and even minimal cat 1, but not anything higher. Well, who would want to?? Anyway, any educated guess on the intensity and future path of 93L would be greatly appreciated. Reply to this post or PM me. Thanks!
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 08:43 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Don't often see a 45-kt tropical storm producing tropical storm force winds up to 260 miles from the center (NE of the center in this case), but that is the case this time. If Tammy moves far enough inland, it looks like there could be a threat of isolated tornadic storms near the coast to the NE of the center. If it stays near the coast, the most likely tornadic activity will remain offshore.
well, it's not that uncommon with these storm with a good pressure gradient and all the weather on one side. get one or two a year, usually. -HF
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 08:51 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Your pain threshold is higher than mine. Having seen what Charley's Cat 1 winds did in Cape Coral last year, I opt for nothing more than a depression. Track, intensity? Can't hazard a guess at this time. I just don't want to see an "UH, OH!" system that intensifies quickly right before making landfall. Keeping a keen eye on the models and satellite pics on this one for sure.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 08:55 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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I thought Charley's winds were over 125 when it hit Port Charlotte/Cape Coral area? Anyway, i would rather see the thing not develop at all, but if it did, a trop storm or less is not too bad.
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 09:09 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Hurricane Charley was a very compact storm and while cape coral saw wind gusts close to 100mph sustained winds were cat 1 strength. Up in Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda we experienced sustained winds around 150mph with gusts much higher. Maximum radius of highest winds were only between 6-10 miles across. Very small but very destructive. I'm interested to see what 93L develops into cause we still have a lot of trees hanging by a thread here.
Hurricane Charley '04(Port Charlotte)
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 09:17 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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model runs and lastest Sat images from all of our systems
http://img108.imageshack.us/img108/9588/james27to.png
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 09:25 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Quote:
I thought Charley's winds were over 125 when it hit Port Charlotte/Cape Coral area? Anyway, i would rather see the thing not develop at all, but if it did, a trop storm or less is not too bad.
from the NHC report:
Charley made landfall on the southwest coast of Florida near Cayo Costa, just north of Captiva, around 1945 UTC 13 August with maximum sustained winds near 130 kt. Charley's eye passed over Punta Gorda at about 2045 UTC, and the eyewall struck that city and neighboring Port Charlotte with devastating results. Continuing north-northeastward at a slightly faster forward speed, the hurricane traversed the central Florida peninsula, resulting in a swath of destruction across the state. The center passed near Kissimmee and Orlando around 0130 UTC 14 August, by which time the interaction with land caused the maximum sustained winds to decrease to around 75 kt. Charley was still of hurricane intensity, with maximum sustained winds of 65-70 kt, when the center moved off the northeast coast of Florida near Daytona Beach at around 0330 UTC 14 August.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2004charley.shtml?
93L doesnt look all that great right now, look like just another glob of crap that going to bring rain. we'll have to wait and see.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/EAST/GMEX/RGB_loop.html
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 09:29 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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I leave for work having just seen 92L become Tammy.
I come home from work and we have 93L and 94L.
Wow.
Now here is the interesting question. Looking at model track guidence, 21L (Tammy) and 93L (spun off part of Stan) appear to be on a colission track in about 48 hours. Will these two storms be able to survive such close proximity to each other?
--RC
Model Tracks: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
yeah, they'll do fine as close as they are. the systems are about 600-700 miles apart... and fairly weak. tammy is on the way up... 93L is moving more slowly. separation is not an issue. -HF
| bobbutts |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 09:30 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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There's a chart that shows estimated winds from Charley here:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/data/pdfs/CharleyPSDA.pdf
figure 3
You can easily see how compact he was with Cape Coral well outside the area of strongest winds.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 09:39 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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I just ran a run through of the models...there seem to be lots of closed lows forming over the next week - I wonder how many of these are real?
93L, remnants of Stan, moving north.
94L, tropical wave, moving NW
Low with associated circulation forming south of Cuba toward the end of the week as seen on NOGAPS
Low with associated circulation forming just east of the Caribbean as seen on NOGAPS
And there are a couple other lows and circulation centers poping up on other models, though none looking significant yet. We might see a busy week of systems (let's hope they are weak).
--RC
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 09:46 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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I, too, cannot keep up with all of these storms...isn't Tammy like the 4th or 5th one to just "bubble" up this year? I saw that piece of energy that broke away from Stan this morning and thought, "Uh-oh". Than I though, "NAH!"
Having just watched some of the local news channels, what caught my eye was that most of the spaghetti models have it moving right into Central Florida. Unless it has a forward speed like Tammy, it could have just enough time to get to T.S. status -- although they are talking about wind shear, don't know how strong it is or what effect it will have on 93L. I would imagine that no matter what, it will bring a ton of rain for the West Coast of Florida.
| Jane219ga |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 09:55 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Well, I am in Valrico and it has been dry here for a month. Got a wee bit of rain with Tammy yesterday and the day before. I think we need some rain to tide us over for the upcoming dry months.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 10:43 PM |
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quick
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looks like tammy will landfall as a 45kt tropical storm at cumberland island, ga around 8pm local. the nhc forecast track taking it nw keeps looking goofy and hopefully they'll adjust it right with the next cycle. center of the storm may pass close to here late morning tomorrow, i'm thinking. we stand to get a couple inches of rain overnight and tomorrow morning. haven't seen any real wind reports, but st simons and savannah should get a good squall or two in the next few hrs.. maybe some ts force gusts. kinda doubt any ts force winds will encroach on land, but they're definitely occurring off the ga coast right now.
as for 93L... the upper trough digging on its western side has really swept into what looked like a formative low earlier. there's still a sharp bend in the surface wind flow northeast of cancun... which should migrate ne towards sw florida and potentially form something over the next day or two. then again the energy from this system may refocus further southeast in the nw caribbean. synoptic pattern looks right for another formation, but i'm not buying into that nne track anymore.. best bet is either s. florida... and if something crosses there it will probably turn north and head for the eastern carolinas. i very much doubt that more than a tropical storm would cross florida by the weekend. it is worth noting that most of the globals show something trapped east of the se us after the weekend. this will either be a system or a bunch of energy that gets caught under the next ridge and may try to develop as well. the processes forcing this pattern are set to repeat, so we're by no means done after this week.
actually a pretty good shot that the 94L system will act up if it can gain a little latitude. long term track would tend to be nw, slowly. it's way out there and an atypical thing for a system that far east in october to bother the continent. the upper low north of there is a longshot at a cold-to-warm core conversion system, but only showing the slightest of tendencies in that direction.
HF 2242z05october
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 10:56 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Man, it was hot and humid in Central Florida today !!
Except for the cloud cover, you would never even know a tropical system was
nearby. Sure could have used more rain here.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 11:09 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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" i very much doubt that more than a tropical storm would cross florida by the weekend "
Do you promise? My family has already devoured the canned goods I bought for hurricane season and now the prices are up more than 30 cents or more on everything. I made the mistake of buying edible food during the hurricane tax free week here in Florida.
Many of us who work at fixed incomes are experiencing the gas crunch and saving food budget by consuming what is on hand, holding out and praying for divine escape from a media event.
Surely we can find it within ourselves to say that the possibility of a significant storm event will escape Central Florida this year Right?
| laureg |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 11:17 PM |
Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Hey everyone, just wanted to pop in and say this is my first ever post. Have learned a lot this hurricane season; probably know enough now to keep me thoroughly alarmed at all times...but very thankful to have been able to found you all and really appreciative of all the great information. Have even chuckled at the occasional posting drama.
Watching that system to the southeast of me and hoping it doesn't wreck up my weekend.
And...here's hoping the rest of the season is just a bunch of wimpy 'fish spinners'...
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 05 2005 11:56 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Quote:
Surely we can find it within ourselves to say that the possibility of a significant storm event will escape Central Florida this year Right?
Hopefully. It looks like a "significant storm event" is not on your horizon this week, anyway. 93L is really looking sad this evening - the moisture is going to move around the ULL before it ever has a chance to develop now, it looks like. So, that's one less name that the NHC will have to use this year.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 12:01 AM |
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Re: quick
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Quote:
looks like tammy will landfall as a 45kt tropical storm at cumberland island, ga around 8pm local.
Per the 7pm CT Intermediate Advisory:
Doppler radar and surface observations indicate that the center of
Tammy moved inland near Mayport Florida within the past hour. At 8
PM EDT...0000z...the center was estimated near latitude 30.5 north
...Longitude 81.6 west...very near Jacksonville Florida.
Looks like it took a left turn at the last minute (where have I heard that before?)
well, it'll go up like ten miles west of cumberland. i probably was figuring the center in the wrong place by radar. -HF
Could be, Hank... although, looking at IR, it's moving perpendicular to the coast now....or am I losing my mind?
| Yikes |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 12:10 AM |
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Re: quick
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St. Simons has had 12" of rain in the last 3 days, thus far today 3.25". Strong intermittent rain bands, estimated at 4-6" of rain per hour. Winds relatively calm except right along the coastline. Extremely high tides due in part to the nor'easter we have been experiencing in addition to Tammy. Hoping for a relatively calm night.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 12:13 AM |
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various thoughts
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Not quite so sure we'll get something out of 93L. If it happens, I think it'll be the perturbation currently in the NW Caribbean as opposed to the main feature heading toward Florida. The upper-level environment just isn't terribly conducive to tropical development; anything that does form, I think, is more likely to be of a dubious tropical nature at best. Wouldn't be surprised to see something subtropical or extratropical form out of that, really.
Tammy is also of dubious tropical nature. Recon has found an ever-eroding temperature gradient inside versus outside of the storm -- currently even -- and earlier reported a flat temperature gradient that has continued to get flatter. The strongest winds are being found well away from the center in the NE quadrant, generally 50-100mi away from the center. The cyclone phase analyses from all available models imply a hybrid structure with only a shallow warm core. Given the satellite appearance and the available data, I don't think Tammy is a tropical cyclone and is instead a subtropical storm. However, that has little bearing on what we'll get out of the system, just that the landfall area will see little in the way of significant weather while areas well-removed from the storm center are going to see the brunt of the storm. I do think Tammy will start to pivot to the NW and WNW and slow down with time; the ridge to the north still remains, the trough projected to swing through is still well to the west, and the storm is at the extent of the upper-low now. Think this one ends up somewhere between Albany, GA and the Savannah River tomorrow.
94L...not too keen on its impacts. That deep upper level trough will kill it if it gains too much latitude and unless the pattern significantly changes in the tropics/subtropics, it's a goner by 50W no matter what happens. I don't really see the pattern changing, so unless it gets its act together shortly it's likely just another depression for the record books at best. The low way up there at 40N/20-25W...those happen on occasion, not a likely candidate for anything interesting. Should slide south and sit there for the next few days, though. The upper low over the subtropical central Atlantic similarly is not likely to result in a whole lot, though the GFS develops something along the convergence zone to its south and drives it toward the north and northwest. Not buying that yet, just like the CV storm it's been advertising.
Anything we get close-in in the short term is likely to be another Michael (from last year) at best -- a hybrid system that moves at a fairly decent clip but brings a couple-few inches of rain to some area. That's the end result from Tammy and the likely end result from 93L...I just think the environment is more conducive to hybrid/extratropical development, particularly as that upper trough approaches from the central US, than anything tropical. Time will tell.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 12:16 AM |
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Re: quick
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just got off the phone with parents.... there is st. mary's... really in kings bay....(sub base).... winds are light and just shifted in the last 30mins... they said most of the yards around the area are underwater (6inches or so)... the ditches are very full and it just quit raining in the last 15 mins or so...told them i was tired or seeing storms in the GOM... so i sent them one.... *L*
anyway looks like south florida in for some rain next!!!
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 12:57 AM |
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Re: various thoughts
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Quote:
Anything we get close-in in the short term is likely to be another Michael (from last year) at best -- a hybrid system that moves at a fairly decent clip but brings a couple-few inches of rain to some area. That's the end result from Tammy and the likely end result from 93L...I just think the environment is more conducive to hybrid/extratropical development, particularly as that upper trough approaches from the central US, than anything tropical. Time will tell.
I agree, Clark... there is lots of incredibly dry air in the western GOM, and 93L seems to have gotten the punch squeezed out of it rather severely this afternoon. Still seems like we'll get some rain from it in the panhandle, but only if the ULL moves out of the way. Is that still looking possible at all? Watching the WV loop, it looks like the ULL isn't budging. Also, I notice on the WV loop and the JAX radar over the last hour or two that Tammy isn't moving as far north as it was earlier, relatively so anyway. Am I seeing things? Is there a chance it could get pushed back south?
| Colleen A. |
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| Thu Oct 06 2005 01:08 AM |
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Re: various thoughts
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I just looked at the visibles for 93L. If you hit the "NWS Fronts" box it almost appears that this system is *trying* to get itself together tonight. Yes, it's true that all the convection is to the north and east of it, but Tammy didn't look all that great yesterday either. My eyes may be deceiving me, but it also appears that it's trying to work itself down to the surface.
Please keep in mind that I am not predicting that a major hurricane will hit the west coast of Florida this weekend...no alarm sirens going off with this post. However, I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes classified as a T.D. before hitting land. I think people (besides us) who hear "a tropical depression" think "Ah, well, no biggie". They forget that even a tropical low or a tropical depression can cause major problems with rains and flooding.
And after the way this hurricane season has gone, anything is possible.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 01:10 AM |
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Re: quick
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safe to say your pop has something to with missile subs, then? probably a really wet night around my old stomping grounds up in hinesville tonight. if the storm does in fact carry its convection with it as it weakens and curves left into the low level flow, should train rainbands over south carolina all day tomorrow. i've got a hunch the deep convection shears off and keeps riding north overnight, but we'll see.
i'm a little more optimistic about 94L's chances than clark... the sharpening upper trough to its west should induce the diffluent/ridging aloft deal over it as it trudges nw. it may slingshot left around it in a few days if it gets close enough to the chunk of ridge poised to set up in the central atlantic early next week.
93L has had a serious shear/dry air intrusion and i have nothing to add to clark's analysis. if anybody's been worrying you about a hurricane in the eastern gulf during the rest of the week i've got some prime arizona swampland for sale they're welcome to purchase. i'm more concerned that part of it feeds into a baroclinic type system that may develop near south florida or east of florida during the next couple of days... a good pulse should come up this oncoming trough and if something tropical forms then it may end up clipping the eastern carolinas or new england (not your cue to go nuts, ryan). then again listening to clark's analysis of how tammy has been dubiously tropical there's not much reason whatever comes up won't be just a frontal trough.
in the long range gfs nogaps euro ukmet.. you get the picture, all of them.. have disturbed weather strung from the western caribbean to off the southeast. the period of unrest is likely to keep our eyeballs glued through the first half of october.
by the way, stan may make a comeback off the mexican riviera tomorrow. i'm going to send the nhc hate mail if they give it a pacific name... it's still stan, dammit. stan has put in its papers for retirement already, actually... it came about timed with a westerly pacific moisture surge and really rained on central america. latest reports number around 120 dead. deforested hillslopes are probably as culpable as heavy rains with these fatalities, i'm guessing.
HF 0110z06october
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 01:12 AM |
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Re: various thoughts
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You have that right Colleen. People forget or do not realize that in Florida, we can get tropical force winds in an afternoon thunderstorm and that Tropical Depressions can throw very destructive tornados especially if the surrounding relative pressures are sharply different in intensity.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 01:24 AM |
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Re: quick
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Quote:
by the way, stan may make a comeback off the mexican riviera tomorrow. i'm going to send the nhc hate mail if they give it a pacific name... it's still stan, dammit. stan has put in its papers for retirement already, actually... it came about timed with a westerly pacific moisture surge and really rained on central america. latest reports number around 120 dead. deforested hillslopes are probably as culpable as heavy rains with these fatalities, i'm guessing.
HF 0110z06october
I remember a major hurricane (I think it was a major hurricane) several years back that cross Cetral America named Juan, I think. Don't remember the year and I may be completely wrong on the name, too, but for the sake of this discussion I'll call it "Juan"). Anyway, "Juan" crossed into the Pacific as a tropical depression - the NHC was still issuing advisories on it as "Tropical Depression Juan" even after it entered the EPAC. It strengthened and was upgraded to a Tropical Storm name "Kate" (again, I don't remember the exact name). The Weather Channel was referring to it as "Tropical Storm Kate (Juan)" or something like that - using both names for several days. Eventually the dang thing crosses the International Date Line and became a Typhoon. I think it set the record for the longest-lived and most-travelled tropical cyclone - with advisories initiated by the NHC, then transitioned to the CPHC and ultimately to the JTWC... I think it eventually died out in the WPAC.
Anyway, if a tropical system traverses from the Atlantic basin to the EPac, the name changes - I don't know of a situation where it hasn't. But, the CPac and WPac have their own set of names, too... yet if an EPAC system moves past 140 degrees, it just transitions to the CPHC - no name change. Same if it goes past the date line... it transitions to the JTWC from the CPHC, and becomes a Typhoon instead of a Hurricane if winds are =>74, but it doesn't change name, so there is no consistency.
In this case, it won't be Stan because Stan split in half. If you call the EPAC system Stan you have to call 93L Stan and that would just be too confusing!
you're probably talking about john in 1994. it didn't start in the atlantic, but did have a very long life. actually crossed from eastpac to centpac to westpac and then back to centpac as it recurved, if my memory serves. either way, it had an extreme 31 day life span. -HF
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 01:29 AM |
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Re: various thoughts
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Quote:
I agree, Clark... there is lots of incredibly dry air in the western GOM, and 93L seems to have gotten the punch squeezed out of it rather severely this afternoon.
That's what I was thinking. There was a time today when I was more than a little concerned about 93L's intentions. I really believed it was heading up the west coast of Florida as an intensifying system, so I was quite relieved when I saw the dry air get going from the north and push into the back of 93L and edge it off towards the east.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 01:36 AM |
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Re: various thoughts
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Quote:
That's what I was thinking. There was a time today when I was more than a little concerned about 93L's intentions. I really believed it was heading up the west coast of Florida as an intensifying system, so I was quite relieved when I saw the dry air get going from the north and push into the back of 93L and edge it off towards the east.
I'm a BIT concerned about Tammy still. It made landfall 90 minutes ago or so... and has done nothing but looked MORE impressive on IR since then... it's gonna dump a lot of rain... hopefully that's all.
| Brown Brown |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 01:42 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Take a look at the Water Vapor or IR animations of it. All that stuff is clumping together over Cuba, with something big happening south of Cuba in the last hour. Strange. The Stan thing headed south of Cuba, and has an increasingly mean look about it. A lot meaner looking than Tammy. Just a trace of circulation too, it seems.
Keeps that up overnight, we'll wake up to a Hurricane tomorrow.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 01:45 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Oh please a hurricane in the morning LOL maybe the Cat 5 i predicted a few days ago will come and eat it up and make a cat 6 as that is about as much a chance as this being a cane by morning.Please!
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 01:46 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Quote:
Take a look at the Water Vapor or IR animations of it. All that stuff is clumping together over Cuba, with something big happening south of Cuba in the last hour. Strange. The Stan thing headed south of Cuba, and has an increasingly mean look about it. A lot meaner looking than Tammy. Just a trace of circulation too, it seems.
Keeps that up overnight, we'll wake up to a Hurricane tomorrow.
There's no trace of a circulation south of Cuba. There might be one north of the Yucatan Channel, but there are no clouds there. I don't know what IR animation you're looking at, but it doesn't look mean to me.
Edit: As much as I hate to say this... I agree with ralph! No offense intended, but this is not gonna be a hurricane tomorrow morning.
| suziqt |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 01:50 AM |
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Re: quick
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Raining hard in Midway, GA. Here on the coast had ~6 inches in the last couple of hours. Expecting more. Flood warnings all over. Wind gust ENE around 38. Waitin' on that cold front and some fine south GA fall weather. Think it'll make it before November?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 01:56 AM |
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Re: quick
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The NHC's intentions on storm naming protocol were released when we had Adrian in the EPac back in May (seems like so long ago, eh?) -- if the storm maintains classifiable status, they will keep the name. If a storm in either basin is no longer classified but something (re)develops in the other basin, it will get a new name. They aren't particularly concerned with the differences in names because a) most people don't care about EPac storms other than hurricane followers and b) they don't get worked up about the "sex change" in terms of names; in fact, they always say that people should refrain from giving these storms a personality because of the name.
Anyway, I don't believe it is quite the same low level center firing up over the EPacific waters as was associated with Stan. Last night saw a major convective burst fire up near Acapulco and move WNW; today saw another one. The center slowed down as it approached the coast and remained just east of the convective bursts...for development to occur, either it will have to move out over water or give way to a new circulation. The latter looks more likely than the former...in which case it definitely wouldn't be Stan (and in either case, it'd get a new name with Stan's declassification). In any case though, it's a very ambiguous circulation.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 01:57 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Just been looking at the GOM Water Vapor Loop. There's now some moist air definition forming at the centre and the whole mass is rotating, albeit clockwise.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 02:00 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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That mess you see near Cuba is a combination of daytime convection over Cuba and the old convective complex. There is little organization to it with the low "center" well to the WNW of that area. No hurricane is going to form out of that anytime soon...and I say that with extreme confidence.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 02:01 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Quote:
Just been looking at the GOM Water Vapor Loop. There's now some moist air definition forming at the centre and the whole mass is rotating, albeit clockwise.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
I just looked at that loop... I guess I'm blind. I see NO circulation in any direction.
| Brown Brown |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 02:06 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Edit: As much as I hate to say this... I agree with ralph! No offense intended, but this is not gonna be a hurricane tomorrow morning.
I said if it kept doing what it was doing overnight. "IF".
Here's where I'm looking.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
Better hurry up, don't want to miss the hurricane...
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 02:13 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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if there's a hurricane in the morning.... someone would be in trouble.... i just can't find anything to support a TS/TD right now..... just alot of Moisture and a "weak" surface low....
Radar crapped out on last frame
But i do see signs of rotation just off of the tip of yucatan....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-ir2-loop.html
storms well to the east of low
| Brown Brown |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 02:23 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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That shortwave infared doesn't show the really powerful parts, not enough resolution or something.
The Water Vapor and normal IR has pegged the meter about the width of Cuba. And every half hour, it doubles.
Oh no, something's up.
| Brown Brown |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 02:27 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Hard to say, but a litte white dot in the middle now... Particularly on the Water Vapor. And the worst stuff in a circle around it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html
| Convergence |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 02:29 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 02:30 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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I stepped through the loop quite a few times and felt sure I could see some rotation, but I do not have a trained eye so I guess I must have been mistaken.
| La Nimo |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 02:30 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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You need to get your act together son.
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 02:35 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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post snipped by author after accomplishing intended purpose
Nothing to see here, move along...
| Brown Brown |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 02:36 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Sarasota3G |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 02:44 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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I agree, let's listen, and understand, to what the Mets are saying. They have the best idea of what's happening. I live directly in the current "Target Zone" Sarasota, for 93L and until I hear an expert say "GET OUT" I'm not going to make travel plans.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 02:51 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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IR channel 2 - information.... i think IR 2 works best at night to see lower level clouds... mostly i think was designed to help with fog/low surface features.... IR sat - information water vapor information - will try to find more detailed information....
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 02:54 AM |
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Re: various thoughts
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Quote:
I'm a BIT concerned about Tammy still. It made landfall 90 minutes ago or so... and has done nothing but looked MORE impressive on IR since then... it's gonna dump a lot of rain... hopefully that's all.
That's another thing I've been watching all day. Earlier, 93L was puhing NNE, Tammy was moving north up the coast and was forcing the back of 93L to turn around her. Since Tammy got further NW and 93L got pushed out to the east the air flowing off 93L's back has been given room to manoevre behind Tammy. It now looks like that air could be re-inforcing Tammy and spinning her at the same time.
Like I've said all along, I'm new to this, and I could be mistaken again. I hope I am otherwise Tammy could turn quite vicious.
| Brown Brown |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 03:06 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Looks to me it's beginning to start to spin in the right direction, like it's big and bad enough now, and the tentitive eye is still there, after a couple hours, and now totally ringed with clouds near 40,000 ft.
Where's Nostradamus?
Um, there's no eye there. You're looking for something out of a disorganized mass of nothing. Your posts are the one being debunked by the pros here -- and at the NHC, for which I refer you to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/060221.shtml -- not anyone else's. We welcome and encourage all comments, but quite frankly this is just getting a little out of hand. If you have any questions, please PM one of the moderators or the poster in question instead of using the message board as your personal discussion forum. Thank you. --Clark
| Convergence |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 03:07 AM |
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Re: various thoughts
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At best, the improved environment will allow Tammy to maintain its integrity for a bit longer. Looking at the IR and WV pics, though, I certainly haven't seen any improvment. Should just be lots of rain.
| Convergence |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 03:07 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Quote:
Looks to me it's beginning to start to spin in the right direction, like it's big and bad enough now, and the tentitive eye is still there, after a couple hours, and now totally ringed with clouds near 40,000 ft.
Where's Nostradamus?
You do understand that it's impossible for any kind of "eye" feature to form at his stage, right?
| Brown Brown |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 03:09 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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IR channel 2 - information.... i think IR 2 works best at night to see lower level clouds...
Yeah, I think you are right. Always seemed kinda useless to me.
| Tracey |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 03:11 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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I have been busy all day and haven't heard anything about the system trying to form in the Gulf - Yucatan ...Cuba, whereever, ... . Can anyone tell me what what the mets are saying about its forecast?
| jbmusic |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 03:14 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Brown Brown |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 03:15 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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"You do understand that it's impossible for any kind of "eye" feature to form at his stage, right?"
Well, let's just call it the little clear area closely surrounded by clouds 40,000 ft. in the air, in the interim.
And your predicition is? Forget that part?
| tpratch |
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| Thu Oct 06 2005 03:19 AM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Tammy Forms off East Central Florida Coast
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Quote:
Is there an ignore button we can use on this guy?
One of the benefits of registering an account:
Click on the user name of interest. When viewing their profile, there is a link at the bottom titled "Ignore this user". Click the link and your profile remembers to ignore any posts by that user. If you ever feel like listening again, going to their profile, that "ignore this user" link now says "stop ignoring this user".
Simple, easy, and adviseable. This type of troll doesn't listen to polite encouragement or even less-than-subtle warnings about what is tolerated by this community.
Anyone else find it humorous that someone claiming "Ad-hominem" is being used against him is attempting the same by belittling others?
/just sayin...
//thanks again oh mighty mods of the CFHC for cleaning up the mess
brown knows enough big words so that he obviously isn't stupid. i'm of the opinion that he knows better and all that crap was just to stir up the forum. if we see anymore i'll make it disappear, so no matter. -HF
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 06:20 AM |
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fun with follow-ons
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forget all the early modeling was pushing our yucatan disturbance nne: the focus of that system has shifted east, south of cuba now. there's actually a good bit of convergence down there and the shear isn't as much as an issue... maybe that mid-level vorticity to the northwest will induce a surface feature there as well. if something stirs up it will be more of a bahamas issue, maybe southeast or east florida... but do the math in the long-run--if it develops and rides up ahead of the oncoming shortwave, it'll make an intensification run up the eastern seaboard. so yeah, big deal if it closes off. the eastern carolinas up to new england would be the endgame of such a system, so stay appraised.
94L may beat it to classification. the system has gotten incrementally further from the lowest latitudes and is in a modestly good environment with some improvement.. as the trough to the northwest will likely force ridging over the top of the weak system. this may be classified during thursday or friday.
watch the disturbed weather persistently firing near the center of the upper low that sits at the 24N51W in that upper trough axis. some globals favor a surface system developing there, and as long as it moves in tandem with the larger upper system it can continue to work the system downward in the atmosphere. if the convection keeps going as it has been, expect the TWO to start picking up on it tomorrow.
outside chance another low forms in the disturbed weather riding up east of tammy. minor model support for such a thing... with all the confused feedback in the models it's hard to know what to buy into.
HF 0620z06october
| Susan in Jupiter, FL |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 08:56 AM |
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Re: fun with follow-ons
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Last night between 10 p.m. and 12 a.m. in Jupiter we had tons of thunder, lightning, and rain. Don't know if this was the tail end of Tammy or the beginning of whatever is happening S/SW of us. The thunder just had a really weird sound to it. Just wonder if there's any reason for thunder to sound differently.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 10:31 AM |
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Re: fun with follow-ons
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Looking at the dieing burst of convection south of Cuba, that definately looks like a blob of nothingness. The models aren't even initializing 93L in that location - 93L is initialized between the tip of the Yucatan and the end of Cuba in an area that looks to have very little convection. I'm seeing some convection starting up there this morning, and some weak turning, but there just aren't enough convective cells yet. This system lacks the time to develop deep convection and get organized before reaching Florida. If it had another week over water, we could see something out of it, but it doesn't.
94L is getting better organized...but it's hard to tell what it's doing since there isn't a floater on it and it's right on the break point between the western atlantic SSD frame and the slower updating eastern atlantic SSD frame. Using GHCC GOES instead, I can see that the system's deep convection has weekened overnight, but it still is presenting a formidable picture on IR. There is little evidence of turning, and its organization is lacking. However, it still has several days before it reaches the any islands, so it will be a system we will have to continue to watch. There is no SAL out there to affect it, but I'm also not really seeing anything that will make this system bloom. I'd guess we're in for another weak storm in the near term. We'll have to see how its track moves before guessing at the long term.
--RC
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Oct 06 2005 10:54 AM |
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Re: fun with follow-ons
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Quote:
Looking at the dieing burst of convection south of Cuba, that definately looks like a blob of nothingness. The models aren't even initializing 93L in that location - 93L is initialized between the tip of the Yucatan and the end of Cuba in an area that looks to have very little convection. I'm seeing some convection starting up there this morning, and some weak turning, but there just aren't enough convective cells yet. This system lacks the time to develop deep convection and get organized before reaching Florida. If it had another week over water, we could see something out of it, but it doesn't.
--RC
Uh.... 93L is initialized where the center of circulation is. Looking at the latest WV loop.... there is moisture there, albeit not a lot of it. It's going to be slow to develop if it develops at all. The problem to me isn't lack of convection, but more the upper level winds just are fighting it too much. Interestingly, the low level center seems to have stopped moving overnight, after moving rather briskly yesrerday.