MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 12:45 PM |
Tropical Depression 24 Forms in Western Caribbean
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8AM Sunday Update
Tropical Depression 24 is very slowly getting its act together. The current intensity forecast brings it to at or near a Category 2 hurricane by the end of the run (120 hours out) near the western tip of Cuba.
It is likely to become Tropical Storm Wilma sometime later today or tonight.
If this system were to impact the Gulf coast or Florida, it would be seen very late in the week, therefore there is quite a bit of time to discern what may happen and where it may go. Anything beyond a few days at this point is speculation. Therefore, it's important for folks in Florida and parts of the Gulf Coast to watch this one over the next several days to see if the suggested northward turn happens. (It may not)
If you want to let us know what you think of where the system may go, use the forecast lounge.
7PM Update
TD#24 has formed in the western Caribbean. Movement may bend toward the north in the later term. More to come in the future.
The system is expected to strengthen potentially toward hurricane status, and would be Wilma, the last name in the Atlantic list. There exists some potential for a major hurricane to form out of this.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Original Update
The tropical wave that has formed in the western Caribbean, 98L near Jamaica isn't quite tropical yet, but it seems likely that it will develop into a tropical depression this morning. And likely head generally westward toward Central America seems the most likely path at this moment. However, some models do take it northwest over Cuba, and in that case we'll have to watch it as well.
Recon may fly out to check this system later today.
Conditions are improving for development, and strengthening is a good possibility if it stays south of Cuba (which I believe is likely to happen). If so, Intensity wise, this storm will have a lot going for it in its favor in the next few days.
Chances for tropical development of the disturbance near Jamaica in the next two days (98L).
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-------------------*--]
We'll be watching and updating as necessary.
Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from the islands
98L
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 01:03 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Looking at the models, it looks like Wilma could be another short-lived storm, heading into Central America - although Lyons said it was expected to turn more to the north later in the forecast period (toward the GOM)... don't know what he was basing that on because ALL of the models show it moving WSW except for LBAR which turns it NE through the Bahamas.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 01:16 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Not quite ALL of the models - the UKMET and the GFDL both eventually turn the system northwestward as high pressure anchored to the north of the system eventually (and slowly) moves off to the east. I'll post some thoughts on this system in a new Met Blog.
ED
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 01:19 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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(repost from the other thread...which was posted before I realized we had a new thread!
)It looks to me that the 06Z run of the GFDL hooks the storm northward in the last couple frames. From that view, it looks like this thing could go an unexpected direction - so everyone better watch this system.
GFDL has, however, dropped off in intensity. It's only showing Cat 3 now...as if Cat 3 was something we should say "only" about. Given that the GFDL is a fickle intensity model, and that the runs aren't dissipating this storm, I think we've got another potentially major system on our hands.
--RC
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 01:26 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Quote:
Not quite ALL of the models - the UKMET and the GFDL both eventually turn the system northwestward as high pressure anchored to the north of the system eventually (and slowly) moves off to the east. I'll post some thoughts on this system in a new Met Blog.
ED
I see what you mean, Ed... but that's still not due north like Lyons seemed to imply. All of the models on Skeetobite's site have it eventually making landfall between El Salvador and the Yucatan... well, UKMET now that I look closely has it just missing the Yucatan.
Looking at the visible loops, I'm not convinced that it even develops a circulation before it heads into the EPac. I keep thinking of the last system we had in this area that eventually just fell apart. Of course I'm looking at big satellite loops - why does NRL always have problems whenever there is a developing system????
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 01:32 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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I was watching this through the wee hours when it was just south of Jamaica. Looking at the maps now I'd say it's been edging southwest over the the last eight hours - not a very appealing prospect for those states that suffered very badly from Stan.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 02:12 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Quote:
Not quite ALL of the models - the UKMET and the GFDL both eventually turn the system northwestward as high pressure anchored to the north of the system eventually (and slowly) moves off to the east. I'll post some thoughts on this system in a new Met Blog.
ED
Ed, I'd add the 00Z Euro to the UKMET & GFDL that turn the system NW aiming for the Yuc Straits or going through it as the Euro brings the system into the southern GOM in 168 hrs. No doubt things will change in future forecasts, but what's a little disturbing this far out is this mornings HPC Disc:
00Z/18Z NCEP MEANS SHOW LESS MID-LATE WEEK RIDGING OVER THE ERN CONUS VERSUS THE GFS/UKMET/CANADIAN... AND MAY HAVE SOME VALIDITY IN LIGHT OF THE GREENLAND/DAVIS STRAIT RIDGE. WHILE THERE ARE DIFFS IN HOW THE SOLNS ARE ARRIVED AT... NEARLY ALL 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES REINFORCEMENT OF THE ERN CONUS TROF WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER OR JUST N OF THE GRTLKS BY DAY 7 SAT.
Doesn't look good if this thing gets into the GOM for eastern Gulf Residents.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 02:40 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Do we have any cold fronts coming down from the NorthWest during that formation period? Our Eastern GOM Mexico residents have been saved by the Bell on those massive storms so often, that the complacency north of Port Charlotte is still there.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 02:51 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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If this thing is still around in 4-5 days, it will likely be pulled northward. However, if it is already moved into Central America by then, it will be a moot point. The key will be just how slowly it moves over the next few days, and how far south it ends up drifting before the steering currents become better defined. Right now, it is difficult to imagine it hanging around long enough to eventually be pulled northward as any kind of significant tropical cyclone.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 02:53 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Thanks Ron B, that is the kind of info I was hoping someone would post.
It looks like this thing will be perfectly happy hanging out in the NW Caribbean for some days, going WSW towards Honduras and Nicaragua, and then W or NW, north of Honduras, taking that last available name...and if it stays there, in the warm water of the extreme NW Caribbean, next week we may all be watching on the edge of our seats (again), depending on where it is going to be steered, if it'll round Cuba into the GOM, and if conditions will be favorable there.
But even if it makes landfall in Central America and only makes it to Cat 1 status, it'll still use up the last name on the list. Then with six weeks still left, the 2005 season could be making history once again this year.
What I'd be interested in hearing is some discussion on...fast forward back to 48 hours ago, "tropics are quiet, not favorable for development." Everything looks so different on sat today, all cleaned up (except for poor Central America). After days and days of that trough, big changes the last couple days in the western ATL and Caribbean. It really caught me off guard; I'd been lulled into complacency. What precipitated the changes? What should I have been looking for?
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 02:56 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Quote:
If this thing is still around in 4-5 days, it will likely be pulled northward. However, if it is already moved into Central America by then, it will be a moot point. The key will be just how slowly it moves over the next few days, and how far south it ends up drifting before the steering currents become better defined. Right now, it is difficult to imagine it hanging around long enough to eventually be pulled northward as any kind of significant tropical cyclone.
That's my feeling, too. It's far too early to speculate on the 4-5 day motion of a system that doesn't exist as a tropical entity yet, but it just seems like it will move too quickly to still be in the Caribbean in 4-5 days, which would be necessary for it to get pulled northward. Having said that, looking at the visible loop, it really ISN'T moving right now, that I can tell. It also doesn't look to be organizing quickly - not enough daylight images to identify a clear LLC yet. I don't think we'll have a T.D. today.
Edit: On second thought.... maybe I'm missing something cuz the TWO says it is developing.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 03:02 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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i'll second ron's take on the synoptic worry we'd have if this system gets going. it's getting later in the year for such systems to plunge westward into mexico, though that could surely happen... usually they try to come up this time of year. if i was in florida i'd keep wilma in mind next week. globals show a broad-base trough off the east coast keeping it kinda stuck for the next couple of days, then some ridging building in from the east that could push it n or nw. still not much there, and the big scatter in the dynamic and global tracks seems to be evidence that it won't move a whole lot for the next few days. a more legit ridge will be in place around mid-week, so it's more likely to come nw around then, if that's in the cards. still 98L on the navy site, so no upgrade at 11am. actually, just looked at the euro solution and that's the one i like. it's got a real system and more realistic behavior than the other globals do at this point (trying to split it, part ne, part w). euro shows a tropical cyclone in the yucatan channel next weekend.
looks like no recon until tomorrow, so nhc will downplay the system unless it has clearly developed.
HF 1502z15october
note, it does say that resources permitting they will investigate it later today. not sure of the status on that. -HF
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 03:03 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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This might be useful to you Storm Watchers.
A Google Earth overlay of the GOM and East Carribean Buoys with direct hyperlinks to them.
Looks like pressure is rising slowly from the northwest. Could that block the progress of
93L to the west? Anyone?
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com/download.shtml
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 03:15 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Quote:
Looks like pressure is rising slowly from the northwest. Could that block the progress of
93L to the west? Anyone?
http://www.ascn92.dsl.pipex.com/download.shtml
I seriously doubt that 93L is going to go west, since 93L does not exist currently. 98L might go west, or north, though.
If the pressure is rising to the NW of the system.... well, yes, that could block it.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 03:18 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Quote:
looks like no recon until tomorrow, so nhc will downplay the system unless it has clearly developed.
HF 1502z15october
note, it does say that resources permitting they will investigate it later today. not sure of the status on that. -HF
This is the TWO at 1130am ET (15 minutes from now
):Satellite images and surface observations indicate that a tropical
depression appears to be developing in the western Caribbean Sea
just west of Jamaica. An Air Force reconnaissance plane is
scheduled to be in the area this afternoon to determine if a
tropical depression has formed. This system is accompanied by a
large area of squalls which is already affecting Jamaica and the
adjacent waters. All indications are that this system will move
very slowly toward the west over the warm waters bewteen Jamaica
and the Cayman Islands during the next few days...and could become
a tropical storm or even a hurricane . Interests in Jamaica...Cuba
...The Cayman Islands...and the remainder of the northwestern
Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of this
developing weather system.
A TWO mentioning the possibility of a currently "undeveloped" system (since it has not yet been called TD 24) becoming Hurricane Wilma in the NW Caribbean... OUCH!
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 04:06 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Quote:
note, it does say that resources permitting they will investigate it later today. not sure of the status on that. -HF
...ah, yeah...i wonder what's up with that, too. i noticed that hpc has yet to reposition goes floaters 1 and 2 and they're still peering them out over nothingness - this is both annoying and odd. usually, they got at least one fixated at the slightest prefigurement of - notwithstanding synoptics of the moment.
(political commentary is not permitted on this site - ED)
models and synopsis: did anyone get a gander at the cmc (ggem) for the middle-end of next week? a potent deepener crosses cuba (which most know is a relatively flat land mass)? for this meteorologist, i would not discount any solution that runs this thing up anywhere from new orleans to even just east of florida, then charging north. so...i agree...
all the operational groups suggest something interesting... the nao (north atlantic oscillation) phase is progged to flip negative next week... hmmm... with tall heights and blocking enveloping the lat/lons around the davis straight area and greenland, the natural teleconnection would suggest some kind of counter-balancing negative in the great lakes, ohio valley and mid-atlantic regions... sorry for the lesson, but the reason i'm saying this is because the ecm, cmc, and even the gfdl, all strongly indicate a potent mid-level s/w will be plunging into the se missouri valley area. intuitively, this would configure strong S components at mid-levels along and off the east coast of the u.s.. should "wilma" flirt with such resultant ssw steering fields (if moving along fast enough she would also be less susceptible to shear...) the ne gulf and florida would be jeopardized. in fact, if these background cues become dominantly influential in establishing a path of least resistance (essentially the universal law of storm motion for hurricanes), i wouldn't even lower my guard up along the eastern seaboard - though admittedly, that is (at this time) the lesser of concerns. point being, the trough placement approaching the ohio valley and cross from the missouri valley later in times actually the preferred synopsis given to a very strongly negative assertion of the nao.. we'll just have to see where the 12z runs take this... strangely, the 06z gfs seems to go off the deep end by maintaining a large positive anomaly near davis straight, while keep the winds essentially unsavory zonal at our latitude.. that doesn't taste like the right solution.. especially with a tendency for strong gulf of alaska lows... this arrangement of players is more akin to the ecm/cmc solution, and that is why those solutions are not so easily discounted in my mind...
| bobbutts |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 05:07 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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here's the "Climatological Areas of Origin and Typical Hurricane Tracks by Month" from the NHC..
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml
October shows storms are most likely climatologically anyway to form right near where this storm is now and head north and then northeast with the prevailing track right over S. FL and up into LI area.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/october.gif
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 05:17 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Cuba isnt a mostly flat landmass.....It is mostly moutainous except in the extreme western half of the island.
| Goosus |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 05:25 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Re:
"since western europeans stole this continent"
&
"an administration that is not ultimately concerned with public safety"
How about you take this junk somewhere else other than a meteorological board?
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 05:25 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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...right, which the most likely area of a wilma transit if she comes to pass... one would think. the mountains you speak of however are not as impressive as some of the neighboring land masses or that archipelago... that is why i said "relatively" flat, because comparable to these other islands it is "flatter". at least, that was what i was taught of the area. it may very well be that there are 10,000 ft peaks there that i am not aware, but the information i've gathered over the years regarding the geography of the island is that it is lesser an inhibitor to tropical cyclone interaction than say...hispanola... that was the main point.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 05:28 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Quote:
Cuba isnt a mostly flat landmass.....It is mostly moutainous except in the extreme western half of the island.
Actually, if you go to...
http://www.geographyiq.com/countries/cu/Cuba_geography.htm
...and scroll down to "Terrain" it says,"Mostly flat to rolling plains, with rugged hills and mountains in the southeast"
You will find the same description pervasive around credible information sources, which certainly justifies my assertion that Cuba is "relatively flat"
peace
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 05:32 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Well in general Hispaniola can generally kill off systems due to it having the highest elvs. Cuba is just narrow and does have the ability of weakening a system greatly depending on if its strengthning or not coming to landfall..In general it could weaken it maybe 20-30mph or just destroy it...matters on how fast the system is moving at that time and also where it crosses and at what angle. If it crosses western cuba it can still weaken about what I posted above,,,,if it crosses central or eastern at a speed of 10mph or less then it could be alot greater.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 05:34 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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LOL @ relatively flat!
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 05:38 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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I actually read a paper while as an undergrad about tropical cyclone interaction with cuba vs. hispanola. interestingly, hispanola has saved the u.s. (statistically) much more often that cuba for system interacting with both land masses... goes to show how much 2,200ft mountains - not really the depth of the planetary boundary layer - have much less impact over 9,000 ft mountains...
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 05:48 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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That doesnt have much todo with it in elevation.....I mean,,,2,000-9,000 tops are no different... With Hispaniola,,usually systems travel from E-W across it..while Cuba its S-N only taking a few hours to cross. So that is why Hispaniola destroys more systems plus more waves come across from that direction.
Elevation (yes) does have a impact,,but once the landmass becomes more the flat,,,then any hilly terrain will deminish the straight windflow......another example is being on water compared to a forest or just normal terrain,,,,there is no resistance on water to stop the flow.
BTW you said your a met ? Or did I miss read that? Where you get your degree if you did?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 05:59 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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URNT11 KNHC 151748
97779 17394 70237 87100 79200 99005 72901 /8053
RMK AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 03
(i think they are just off of Cancun...or southern GOM.... heading through the channel down to our system...)
pretty sure they will find atleast a TD...maybe a TS
sat vis
**the GOES-EAST Visible - Storm Relative has just be moved to 98L****
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 06:08 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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actually...elevation plays more of role, more like a tremendous, gigantic role... distance island, believe it or not, is less and inhibitor than taking a circulation field and attempting to impinge it against a wall of mountains that pokes up above the mean boundary-pause... In the end, loss of lower boundary layer coupling with the heat content of the SST is will is a factor, too, but in terms of distruction of established mechanical wind momentum, mountains of more important.
the boundary-pause is the level where the atmosphere becomes less influenced by friction with the land and what is refered to as Eikeman Layer turbulance in the pbl its self. Above about 3,000 to 5,000, feet depending on your thermodynamic values and advection parameters (i.e, strong latter pgf can help in establishing a deeper mixing level and a huge potential instability will also turn the boundary layer over and mix to greater heights), is where the turbulence of the boundary layer gives way to gradient wind. If a topographical obstruction to wind field extends to a meager 2,200 feet or so, then this does not imply enough vertical extent to inhibit the entraining air flow. It will be lesser inhibited along the established angular momentum and the circulation of the system may just run right over the top and barely be touched... . Cuba does not offer this disruption. There has been extensive study about tropical cyclone interaction with Cuba; I'm not making this stuff up...
Yes, I have a formal degree in Meteorology..
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 06:11 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Quote:
URNT11 KNHC 151748
97779 17394 70237 87100 79200 99005 72901 /8053
RMK AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 03
(i think they are just off of Cancun...or southern GOM.... heading through the channel down to our system...)
pretty sure they will find atleast a TD...maybe a TS
sat vis
**the GOES-EAST Visible - Storm Relative has just be moved to 98L****
The system is at least a TD, based on visible imagery - but the majority of the deep clouds are west of the LLC.
The SSD Floater has not been moved to 98L, however... which is kind of strange. Maybe they will move it later today.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 06:12 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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New 12Z GFDL has 98L reaching 150 kt major hurricane status moving N-NW toward the western tip of Cuba in 126 hrs.
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 06:17 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Quote:
New 12Z GFDL has 98L reaching 150 kt major hurricane status moving N-NW toward the western tip of Cuba in 126 hrs.
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation
R U serious! Where are you getting the run so soon.. Please, do tell (pant pant)....
Oh ...man, you know... I don't even have to see the run... I know exactly what is going on... There is a negative aspect to the NAO, probably indicative of a height blockage near Davis Straight and Greenland (maybe not too well picked up by the GFDL - and why would it)...But, I bet there is a low nestling into the Ohio Valley....
Uh oh - ...If you there is such a cataclysmic bomb as the GFDL ...then the forecast becomes entirely perfunctory there after... Balancing indices with well behaved synoptics (which is to say, synoptics that are a sensible fit for established teleconnections - trust me, this method ALWAYS works as an immediate correction technique) then,.......ah, don't know how else to put it but the unthinkable would certainly be plausible... (I think we both know what that is..)
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 06:18 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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wow talk about some dry air moving off the east coast!!!
water vapor
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 06:19 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Quote:
New 12Z GFDL has 98L reaching 150 kt major hurricane status moving N-NW toward the western tip of Cuba in 126 hrs.
http://bricker.met.psu.edu/~arnottj/cgi-...;hour=Animation
150kts isn't just a major huricane. It's a Katrina/Rita hurricane (150 kts = 172.5 mph).
That's an ominous forecast at this point in time. Unfortunately, the intensity models this season have not been that far off - predicting the rapid intensification of both Katrina and Rita.
Has a single Atlantic Basin season EVER had 3 cat 5 hurricanes before? It's premature to say that we'll have cat 5 Wilma in a few days :?: but... if it happens... I may have to seriously contemplate moving to Alaska!
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 06:24 PM |
Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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ok, ok...so ...using your url, i see! WOW.
Indeed, it does appear that there is a disturbance and associated lower tropospheric reflection migrating smartly toward ESE through the Nation's Heartland - about 120-126 hours...
Extrapolate... The implied destination of these feature seems to suggest this would almost HAVE to come careening due N, hooking NNE in time... In fact, I did read on here that Ivon's track rings a bell... I like that. I also like variants therein for obvious reasons..
In any event, man, that is a terrifying visage of a model run, ay?
(off-topic material removed)
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 06:24 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Yes, its showing (the GFDL) a 150 knot 950 mb storm at 120. I am not buying that solution at the moment.....at least not yet. Most of the 12Z models are not really developing the system much at all in the 144 time frame. This may be why the Euro is going with the solution HF pointed out earlier, with a split system; one going NE and the other hanging back in the Caribbean until next weekend. It also may be why the CMC is shooting the system NNE real fast, and more than likely too strong.
12Z Euro Update.....places cane over western Cuba into SW Florida late Thursday, then to the east coast of Florida early Saturday. Still way early, and the Euro can have a west bias. Maybe we can watch model trends go further east staying away from the US. Somehow I doubt it though.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 06:26 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Your right tip,,elevation does play a major role..thats what I said...but your missing the point of what I explained.
Cuba isnt mostly flat....its terrain is hilly with most of its moutains over the eastern end...the central part does have some decent tops also but not as numerous....the western 1/4 is mostly flat.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 06:27 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Quote:
Yes, its showing (the GFDL) a 150 knot 950 mb storm at 120. I am not buying that solution at the moment.....at least not yet. Most of the 12Z models are not really developing the system much at all in the 144 time frame. This may be why the Euro is going with the solution HF pointed out earlier, with a split system; one going NE and the other hanging back in the Caribbean until next weekend. It also may be why the CMC is shooting the system NNE real fast, and more than likely too strong.
Ok... hold the phone.
150kts at 950mb is not 150kts at the surface. It's 120kts (using 80% reduction which I think is appropriate at 950mb)... which is "only" cat 4, not cat 5. Not that that is much better.
The current GFDL kind of frightens me in terms of the movement - turning it NNW toward... well, toward ME...
ETA: scottsvb: I think this system will only go over the western tip of Cuba, if that.
Hmm... looking at the visible loop on FNMOC... it looks like it's moving northward already, but that is probably just because it is still forming.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 06:31 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Ok, well...my point, as derived from physical understanding and formal education is that your "hills" and so forth do not offer the inhibition that you elucidate... "that" is the point...
let it go - i don't care..
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 06:33 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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almost there.....west of cayman islands.... in the carribean..... about another hr i think until vortex... (center fix) if there is one... which i think there is....
URNT11 KNHC 151827
97779 18234 70202 85200 76200 06016 68//1 /5762
RMK AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 04
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 06:43 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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like i said.... the storm relative close-up has been switched.... not sure why either of the floaters from ssd haven't be moved... would expect a call to move on of them.... think it would be floater #1 ( #2 is on the SE GOM)
here's a pic.... it will take about another hour to get a good loop out of the link
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/285.jpg
GOES-EAST Visible - Storm Relative
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 06:49 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Quote:
like i said.... the storm relative close-up has been switched.... not sure why either of the floaters from ssd haven't be moved... would expect a call to move on of them.... think it would be floater #1 ( #2 is on the SE GOM)
here's a pic.... it will take about another hour to get a good loop out of the link
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/285.jpg
GOES-EAST Visible - Storm Relative
...don't mean to start a debate. this will be more for muse! but...doesn't it almost look like an eye?
actually, i made mention to the fact that the ssd's haven't started making images.. I got lambasted for merely suggesting that it might be for cost-cutting and trying to terminate the season early. there was a significant lull since rita; though a lot of hype of events that never came to pass - no doubt.. that could have them redirecting man-power... i'm only mentioning it because i am limited as to my sat sources and it bothers me that everyone gets to see this but me...
argh! thanks for the urls!
peace
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 07:00 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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this is out of jacksonville, Fl
235pm
.LONG TERM...CURRENT PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE UPPER TROUGH BREAKS DOWN AND IS REPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW OR
WEAK RIDGING. LOW LEVEL FLOW TO BECOME EASTERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY
BY FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. WILL INTRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
POPS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR DISTURBANCE IN
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
For some reason i think we might know what sets up..... sounds like something could make it into eastern GOM...
hmm.....To me this would put Florida under the gun if it holds.... late next week.... wed-fri....
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 07:09 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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URNT11 KNHC 151902
97779 18554 70195 82400 58100 07017 56801 /4591
RMK AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 05
should be dropping in alt... they were at the outer bands on this report....expect vortex next
also some new strong storms flaring up..... now that center is away from island.... water is warm.... but alot warmer in to the north!
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 07:15 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Quote:
URNT11 KNHC 151902
97779 18554 70195 82400 58100 07017 56801 /4591
RMK AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 05
should be dropping in alt... they were at the outer bands on this report....expect vortex next
also some new strong storms flaring up..... now that center is away from island.... water is warm.... but alot warmer in to the north!
Sure is! I'm sure you must be aware of this but the unique underwater topography of that section of the Caribbean, where the open abyssal walls against the archipelago, is a trap zone for warm currents. As a result, perinnially that is one of the hottest areas of sst on the planet, and also can bost some of the deeper thermocline. Small by comparison to the western Pacific in terms of surface area, but it is quite deep.
I'd be real surprised if the vortex message didn't contain favorable status...
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 07:17 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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I don't think the 20% reduction from 950mb winds for max intensity is appropriate in this case, considering that the pressure drops to around 898mb in the 12Z GFDL and the eyewall pressure would be quite a bit lower than 950mb in such a system. Based on the pressure forecast (the lowest I've ever seen from the GFDL), it is forecasting a cat 5 storm. Obviously, that doesn't mean it is going to happen, but we can safely say that the GFDL model thinks conditions will be favorable for intensification.
The latest SHIPS model only brings it up to around 80 knots.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 07:24 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Quote:
I don't think the 20% reduction from 950mb winds for max intensity is appropriate in this case, considering that the pressure drops to around 898mb in the 12Z GFDL and the eyewall pressure would be quite a bit lower than 950mb in such a system. Based on the pressure forecast (the lowest I've ever seen from the GFDL), it is forecasting a cat 5 storm. Obviously, that doesn't mean it is going to happen, but we can safely say that the GFDL model thinks conditions will be favorable for intensification.
The latest SHIPS model only brings it up to around 80 knots.
True - good voice of reason... A compromise is certainly in order... One contention I have with all the models is that they don't seem to be initializing the system all that well (the rarely do when in infancy)... It may take a depthier presentation in the intialization for the physics to latch onto this... Could be that the barotropic nature of the GFDL may just be more effective in processing for a developmental curve under such restrictions. That said at risk of making myself sound biased toward a deeper system, but, there is a modeled U/A anti-cylone and a system that is slated to pass over (as said in an earlier assertion) ssts that are phenomenal! That tends to draw one's thinking...
We'll see - but good points. I'd also add the ambient slp in the area isn't all that stellar high, so a system's pressure could be lower at a given wind velocity than say...Katrina, which was at the other end of the spectrum.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 07:25 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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URNT11 KNHC 151922
97779 19184 70189 80500 03400 35016 25241 /0006
40115
RMK AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 07
vortex is got to be next...
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 07:39 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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URNT11 KNHC 151934
97779 19304 70185 79900 03500 36020 25241 /0005
43615
RMK AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 08
starting to think there is not a well defined Low level center... must be weak or poor presentation on radar....
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 07:42 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Quote:
URNT11 KNHC 151934
97779 19304 70185 79900 03500 36020 25241 /0005
43615
RMK AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 08
starting to think there is not a well defined Low level center... must be weak or poor presentation on radar....
The visible satellite presentation is not a well defined as it was when the plane was well west of the LLC, in my opinion. Cloud tops have dispersed somewhat. We may see a "special tropical weather statement' before 5pm one way or the other, and the plane may stay out there looking for a LLC a bit more, but I suspect they may not find one right now.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 07:55 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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URNT11 KNHC 151951
97779 19454 70180 79300 03700 99005 23238 /0004
49905
RMK AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 09
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 07:56 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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I do not think that this will develop today, if ever. It is not much different than several days ago in the sense that at the surface it does not seem to be closed off to the NW. I also do not see a very well defined circulation center, even at midlevels. IF anything forms, i expect it to go SW into Belize or Honduras, no more than 75-85 mph.
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 08:18 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Quote:Thanks for digging up that graphic:
here's the "Climatological Areas of Origin and Typical Hurricane Tracks by Month" from the NHC..
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastprofile.shtml
October shows storms are most likely climatologically anyway to form right near where this storm is now and head north and then northeast with the prevailing track right over S. FL and up into LI area.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/october.gif
So... the NHC's graphic indicates that a tropical cyclone forming where one seems to be forming now could approach Central America... but other than striking the Yucatan Peninsula (and maybe in the general vicinity of Cabo Gracias a Dios) the storm would be unlikely to make landfall until it was somewhere east of Texas?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 08:22 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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URNT11 KNHC 152014
97779 20004 70174 78700 03700 99005 24238 /0004
49905
RMK AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 10
above pressure 1004mb?
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 08:41 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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We have TD 24 per the NRL site.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 08:47 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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that would mean recon reported a low level center..... vortex should be in within 20mins of posting on
http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 08:49 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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well now i know
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 08:53 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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THE
CIRCULATION IS RATHER BROAD AND THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE COULD
BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 MILES FROM THE INITIAL POINT IN THE ADVISORY .
THIS IS COMMON IN DEVELOPING SYSTEMS. THE CYCLONE HAS NOT DEVELOPED
A TIGHT INNER CORE YET. DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SHOWS SO
FAR A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT WINDS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 08:54 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Quote:
well now i know
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N... 78.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB
yeah ...you really cannot have that kind of rotation on both vis/ir imagery without somekind of affirmation from p3... anyway, the 0z model runs will be really interesting now that this will (hopefully) be initialized better).
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 08:56 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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yeah the GFDL got there attention.... sounds like there are going with ships for time being....
"ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE COULD BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS."
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 08:59 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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the five day doesn't look good.....
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/204741.shtml?5day?large
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 09:06 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Quote:
yeah the GFDL got there attention.... sounds like there are going with ships for time being....
"ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE COULD BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS."
The issue here really is bureaucracy... They actually have guidelines surrounding what they are allowed to disseminate from to the public.
I can confirm this because a friend of mine is an on camera Meteorologist of certain local noteriety (for many years) here in easter New England, and he has elucidated this to me in the passed, that particularly during model runs over Nor'easters on the east coast sometimes NWS seems to almost be obtusely missing the boat. It's not that they are... It's really that they have rules that unless they are absolutely certain of elements requiring they do so, they are not supposed to over step...
It's no different for HPC - trust me. You probably already know this anyway... And, actually , it kind of makes good sense... Even though there is enough synoptic appeal to this thing to support a rapid and profound intensification scheme, the fact that only 1 model really depicts it is a smoking gun for needing more time...
Counter point, unfortunately, not likely.. It probably will be a smart event. As of 5pm we indeed have a broadly defined circulation center, inside of which lurks a 1004mb low and that is guidelines for upgrade. TD 24 has sprung to existence... (Amazing 24 named storm is almost a certainty and utterly incredible). Also, one thing I've noticed about system this year - actually, over the last decade for that matter - is that they invariably seem to stemwind up into a deeper more intense system than the officials initially estimate...
Now that TD-24 is defined, it will be interesting to see how the 0z model runs depict. I suspect you are going to see some intensity corroboration by the SHIPs model for starters; though likely shy of 150kts. May not be so in the global based models, however, because obvioulsy a 898mb core amid 150kt winds is just not something that fits inside the resolution of those models. However, I am virtually certain they will in the least have a better fix and a much deeper system out in time. We'll see.
In the meantime, the more I look at the synoptics for next week the more I am convinced that this system will likely not have a demise in the southern Gulf like the last... Which, unfortunately for our storm weary denizens of the Gulf States, the plausibility is on them. OUch.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 09:26 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Early thinking is for a pretty climatological path for this one -- initially west for a few days at a relatively slow rate of speed before a turn toward the north and, ultimately, northeast. Everyone in the entire Gulf needs to watch this one, sure, but I would put the most likely region of impact from Cedar Key, FL southward...most likely between Sarasota and Key West. It's too early to have a lot of confidence in that, but that's what I'm looking at right now. We're getting pretty late in the season to see a monster storm, but there is precedence (Mitch 1998) for a very intense storm. I don't buy the GFDL's solution quite yet, but with a favorable upper-level pattern, upper lows well to the E & NE providing potential outflow channels, and underlying water temperatures & heat content that are still well up there, the potential is certainly there to see a major hurricane out of the last name on the list. Would bank on slow but steady intensification over the next day or two followed by the potential for some more rapid intensification thereafter. Landfall, if the above holds, is looking to be around this time next week, give or take a day or so.
Complications could arise if this one heads west faster than anticipated...it'd likely end up in the Bay of Campeche region if it did so, with all bets off from there.
Stay tuned...this is certainly one a lot of people are going to need to watch and potentially need to make preparations for this week.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 09:35 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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from TAE afternoon discussion......
.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN...LITTLE
CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. AS SAID ALL THIS
WEEK...THE VERY ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CONTINUE TO SEND A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN US. THANKS TO RIDGING
SURFACE AND ALOFT...NOT MUCH CHANCE OF ANY OF THESE SYSTEMS DIRECTLY
IMPACTING US HERE IN THE SOUTHEAST. ON TUESDAY...A WEAK FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTHEAST...BUT WILL LIKELY WASHOUT
NORTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. AS THE MAIN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ALIGNS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY CAUSING FOR A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
MOISTURE LEVELS. AT THE SAME TIME... THE CUT OFF LOW OVER THE
SOUTHWEST US WILL EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SPAWN A RATHER
STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AT THIS
TIME...AS STATED EARLIER IN THE WEEK...MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN US.
WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE NORTHEAST US BY FRIDAY... A WEAKENING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND LIFT. HAVE CONTINUED THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS...BUT DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY LARGE SCALE FORCING AND
INSTABILITY...HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SHOWERS AND NO MENTION OF THUNDER.
so looks like what someone wrote earlier..... the ohio valley will have a strong low up there.... if this sytem in carrib.. gets a going.... then it looks like late next week as clark said will be very busy for the eastern GOM..... just don't think we would have a strong cane that far up... maybe in western carrib... were the heat content is very warm... the gulf of mexico and the loop current is down some in heat
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 10:35 PM |
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|
wilma on the way
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another gfdl monster looms in the western caribbean. we've seen this before. also seen a tendency in recent years for the big ones that form down there to go either left (mitch '98, keith '00) or right (lili '96, michelle '01) of florida. the only storm in recent years to hit florida from the south late in the season was irene in '99. like all the active years prior to this last couple we've had to contend with, there has been a persistent trend of tracks left and right of florida for the late season storms, while long-term climatology shows florida being the target more often (florida got hit by a whole lot of late season major hurricanes from the southwest and south in the first half of the 20th century). so anyhow, here we are again... situation with models showing erratic movment in the short term, and some long terms tracks suggesting a u.s. impact. from here it all depends on whether the trend reversal of storms favoring u.s. landfall tracks as opposed to staying out to sea or going into central america.. now applies to the october systems that frequent the caribbean.
preliminary judgment says that a westward drift with gradual and then rapid intensification, and a turn to the north, are what is in the cards. i'm thinking it will reach t.s. status tomorrow and hurricane around tuesday.. then jump categories rather quickly. best bet is that a hurricane wilma will peak around mid week and then weaken as it curves up into florida. it could wash up the coast if that shortwave out over the plains gets it well enough... the threat for more heavy rains in the northeast will have to be watched beyond whatever hurricane impacts may befall florida around friday.
rabbit's idea that it may get stuck in the caribbean isn't out to lunch, either. there have been enough cases where these things confine themselves to the caribbean that i wouldn't discredit a continued westward motion. it'll have to do it rather quickly, though, as ridging will build to the east by midweek and heights will begin falling to the northwest. if there isn't a quick exit, the pattern is setting up for a classic october recurvature.
we're at the end of what is traditionally the dangerous part of the hurricane season. upcoming wilma is likely to be the last big shot. of course, we have no idea what greek letter names will do to hurricanes....
HF 2235z15october
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 10:43 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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URNT12 KNHC 152159
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/21:43:30Z
B. 17 deg 58 min N
079 deg 11 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 216 deg 008 kt
G. 163 deg 043 nm
H. EXTRAP 1004 mb
I. 24 C/ 367 m
J. 24 C/ 361 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 15 nm
P. AF309 01IIA INVEST OB 16
MAX FL WIND 27 KT SE QUAD 20:23:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 11:51 PM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
|
Hi,
The link to Col. State spaghetti models was on the front page and I can't seem to find it. Could someone please post the link? Thanks a million!
Christine
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 11:54 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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If this storm does come at Florida, what would cause it to weaken before hitting the state? Did you mean weaken after it makes landfall which further means that we may be facing a cat 3 or higher? Please speculate about the intensity you think it might be. Here i was thinking we were pretty much done with this season and the way you guys are talking we may be getting a katrina or rita type storm on the central west coast of florida.
The water temp is barely 84 degrees around here and not much better a little south...not sure what it is in the Caribbean though. I also thought with the cold fronts pushing their way into the Gulf and Fla that that would push any storms more easterly and away from the state. I don't know...not an expert. This is why i am asking you all.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Oct 15 2005 11:56 PM |
|
Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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Quote:
Hi,
The link to Col. State spaghetti models was on the front page and I can't seem to find it. Could someone please post the link? Thanks a million!
Christine
Try: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 12:10 AM |
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Re: Watching Near Jamaica
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(messages to thank someone should be sent via the PM capability - not posted. One line posts tend to consume bandwidth).
ED
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 12:13 AM |
|
Re: wilma on the way
|
Wouldn't wish a Katrina or Rita on anyone else. Enough for the season. Looks like we will get a Wilma out of this one.
Think there will be an Alpha before the season is over? Wouldn't that be the first time in recorded history? This will be an interesting
storm to follow, just hopefully not a major cane. Rita was only a 3 and the damage here is overwhelming.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 12:15 AM |
|
Re: Watching Near Jamaica
|
Quote:Quote:
Hi,
The link to Col. State spaghetti models was on the front page and I can't seem to find it. Could someone please post the link? Thanks a million!
Christine
Try: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
...i'd suggest the impetus is in that header on the url, "early-track guidance", and is what is paramount there...
one thing that can be assumed from these early guess machine tracks is that the leeward islands are probably safe
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 12:20 AM |
|
|
thanks clark and others
|
thanks... looked forward to going on tonight and hearing your thoughts
thanks for posting.. kept seeing it take a path similar to what you spoke of (cedar key..south of there, give or take)
speed right now determines a lot, the slower she goes... the less and less of a chance that she stays west
because... it's only a matter of time that something will lift her northward somewhere
thanks hank frank, everyone
appreciate your discussion more than words can express
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 12:23 AM |
|
Re: wilma on the way
|
Quote:
Wouldn't wish a Katrina or Rita on anyone else. Enough for the season. Looks like we will get a Wilma out of this one.
Think there will be an Alpha before the season is over? Wouldn't that be the first time in recorded history? This will be an interesting
storm to follow, just hopefully not a major cane. Rita was only a 3 and the damage here is overwhelming.
Yeah know...i think right away of how Rita really only fringed the NO area with outer bands/squalls and there was in immediate exacerbation of the levee failures/flooding. So, so fragile is that area - or at least was... I wonder how make-shift the plugs really are, or if a even a category 2 storm running up against that area of the Gulf wouldn't almost have to have a profoundly disasterous result... The fragility of the area that lays in the wake, wouldn't that augment the heck out of a category 2, maximizing it's distructive potential? Intuitively yes... It's really is a horrible, horrible prospect.. Just think what goes through the minds if they saw another psyclops out there with it's eye peering at them...
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 12:48 AM |
|
Re: wilma on the way
|
Quote:
If this storm does come at Florida, what would cause it to weaken before hitting the state? Did you mean weaken after it makes landfall which further means that we may be facing a cat 3 or higher? Please speculate about the intensity you think it might be. Here i was thinking we were pretty much done with this season and the way you guys are talking we may be getting a katrina or rita type storm on the central west coast of florida.
The water temp is barely 84 degrees around here and not much better a little south...not sure what it is in the Caribbean though. I also thought with the cold fronts pushing their way into the Gulf and Fla that that would push any storms more easterly and away from the state. I don't know...not an expert. This is why i am asking you all.
I cannot speak for HankFrank (and wouldn't quite frankly) but I can tell you that there are 3 conceivable reasons and forth that is more conceptual why "Wilma" may be weakened prior to a direct Florida strike.
a) Interaction with Cuba... I had a discussion with a person on here earlier where we were in a dissagreement about the amount Cuba can adversely affect hurricanes. The fact of the matter is, climatology suggest only "some" reduction in strength would be incurred should Wilma stray across.. The western aspect of the landmass has very low elevation - or not sufficiently tall enough to impede the large circumvellate of Wilma. Nevertheless, "any" interaction with Cuba would certainly punch a category 5 storm in the belly because at the envelope of intensity such as that, they ironically become prone to weakening at least excuse to do so.
b) Cooler water... Rita and Katrina have processed the Gulf loop-current and Gulf waters in general considerably. Should Wilma cross from those warm tuck waters that are between Cuba and the Cayman Islands, she will likely get a big, big shot of octane... But then, the waters on the N side of the Islands drops by as much as 4.5C by the time you get to the latitude of the Florida Keys... You simply cannot maintain even a category 4 storm under such conditions, considering that the U/A is also not cold enough to compensate for less potential instability (cold upper atmosphere relative to sst can sometimes offset for ssts of only 79F, a.k.a, Vince).
c) Shear... If Wilma goes ahead and evolves into a category 4/5 system and then starts interacting with veering steering field, those winds initially will be a hostile impactor. If she's moving smartly N before those winds are excited by the approaching s/w from the Nation's Heartland, then it is conceivable that she would not really be as adversely affected by them; moving along with the wind field means relative to the flow she is thus encountering limited shear vs. fighting those wind vectors off..
...The forth and conceptual notion was touched on, and that is that Category 5 intensity is seldom held for too long because it takes nearly perfect parametrics to maintain such intensities. Losing any one is bad. It seems that she will have a window to reach GFDL intensity, but then that window closes once the influence of said s/w NW begins to assert and influence over the Gulf as a whole.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 12:54 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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"We have no idea what Greek names do to Hurricanes"
Well, if we are not being strictly scientific here, we can look at the names and syllables of names of media fetching sound bytes with An-drew, Bet-sy, Don-na, Op-al, Iv-an, of course the simple 2 syllable philosophy breaks down eventually into reality of the conditions and ebb and flow of the water, air pressures, and temperatures. I also want to remind those who are simply relying on water temperatures for protection, that sub tropical systems do not seem to have to rely on hot ssts, nor any other particular hurricane rule to tear up the land,.and drown the fishes. So, here is to a weak thunderstorm over Cuba.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 01:03 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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The latest GFDL run has 24L peaking at 112 MPH..
Dave
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 01:09 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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New GFDL model out taking it to a Cat 3. Given the track record on the GFDL intensity forcasts for the last major storms this year, the running average of intensity is generally a fairly good average:
00Z GFDL predicted a weak Cat 5
06Z GFDL predicted a strong Cat 3
12Z GFDL predicted a strong Cat 5
18Z GFDL predicts a weak Cat 3
Based on the average of these model runs, I'd expect a Cat 4 out of this system right now. Even more amazing, none of the GFDL model runs are trying to disipate the system, so it might be that the Cat 5 runs aren't so far fetched.
The runs now take her into western Cuba heading north. The Gulf coast and all of Florida needs to watch this system. I don't think the SSTs in the Gulf will support yet another Cat 5 system, but we said the same thing when Rita went through and look at what it did. If Wilma (yeah...it's almost certain she will be Wilma by morning...) heads toward the pan handle of FL, she will be heading over the worst oceanic conditions (in terms of SSTs). If she heads east, she'll hit land before having a chance to weaken much. If she heads west she will go up strait over the hot loop current. The track in the 5+ day period will be the determining factor for this storm's strength at landfall.
--RC
GFDL model runs: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
Hurricane Heat Potential: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/hh3.watl.20051015.gif
SSTs: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/sst2.watl.20051015.gif
(NRL SST/HHC Index for the above two links: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/all_watl.html)
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 01:11 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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yep, though that looks little too weak considering what she will have to work with for the first 72 hours anyway.. where as the former runs looked too strong for climatology as well as her margin for success was razor thin in the GFDL - anywhere outside that spatial-temporal arrangement wouldn't do it.
Also, there is some question in my mind whether said weakness in the n gulf, associated with approaching trough from nw, will even be amplified enough to really get wilma actively "moving" n.. she may just get tugged, then abandoned - i believed that was mentioned on this forum recently, anyway.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 01:18 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Wow - I wonder how the values in http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/hh3.watl.20051015.gif
are derived and reduced, because if you look at
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/FS_km14nat00.gif
anything beneath ~37N in off the East Coast (for example) has average SST's of ~27C, where as the site that illustrates the "hurricane heat" has this same area at 0 content. Ummm....
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 01:32 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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When entering information for the models, like the GFDL, what do you enter? Vorticity? Sea Surface Pressure? What do i put in the fields??
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 01:50 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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If you want to know what the track is for the sea pressure it will show the various isobars of pressure at the time entered, say 00Z.
If you want to know about vorticity you have to be able to understand what the symbols mean but it lays out the wind fields in the area that is described by 98L or whatever storm.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 01:57 AM |
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Looking back on models from earlier this week
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It seems that some model runs from a few days ago actually hinted at two systems from this area. One piece heading more towards South Florida and the other looping out into the GOM and then back to Tampa Bay. I wonder if this is playing into some of the comments made in the NHC's discussion about genesis. Have not seen the latest runs to see if this is still ocurring.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 02:20 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Quote:
When entering information for the models, like the GFDL, what do you enter? Vorticity? Sea Surface Pressure? What do i put in the fields??
I'm not sure I understand the nature of this question...
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 02:22 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Quote:Quote:
When entering information for the models, like the GFDL, what do you enter? Vorticity? Sea Surface Pressure? What do i put in the fields??
I'm not sure I understand the nature of this question...
I will answer it then.
Sea surface pressure is what you want for GFDL. Vorticity isn't public to my knowledge.
But pressure is self explanatory, if you understand what it means. Vorticity is the potential spinning, If I remember, in the atmosphere at various pressure levels. Basically, stick to sea surface pressure if you have no idea what the others mean.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 02:25 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Quote:Quote:Quote:
When entering information for the models, like the GFDL, what do you enter? Vorticity? Sea Surface Pressure? What do i put in the fields??
I'm not sure I understand the nature of this question...
I will answer it then.
Sea surface pressure is what you want for GFDL. Vorticity isn't public to my knowledge.
But pressure is self explanatory, if you understand what it means. Vorticity is the potential spinning, If I remember, in the atmosphere at various pressure levels. Basically, stick to sea surface pressure if you have no idea what the others mean.
...I understand what the parameters are and mean...he wanted to know "what do I put in"? what does he mean by "IN"
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 02:31 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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If you want to look at the vorticity output. You will have to select the "upper air" section of the particular model that you are using.
It is possible to have a vortice (spin) at the surface and not at higher level...example: tropical depression or wave. It's also possible to have an elevated vortice that may or may not develop a surface reflection.
Similar to a Funnel Cloud and a Tornado. The funnel cloud is elevated and the Tornado is on the ground. By NWS definitions.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 02:50 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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11 pm is out. NHC says gradually organizing. New track bodes badly for gulf coast. Much more definitive northward turn.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 02:53 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Quote:
If you want to look at the vorticity output. You will have to select the "upper air" section of the particular model that you are using.
It is possible to have a vortice (spin) at the surface and not at higher level...example: tropical depression or wave. It's also possible to have an elevated vortice that may or may not develop a surface reflection.
Similar to a Funnel Cloud and a Tornado. The funnel cloud is elevated and the Tornado is on the ground. By NWS definitions.
...oh, I see what happened here... You guys were on a topic or something, probably having to do with a user-interface and some url, and the person who originally asked me the question assumed that i was also tagging along with the coversation...which i was not...
Now I get it... sure, if a model requires input parameters, you should know what they mean...agreed then...
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 03:14 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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how big is this system predicted to get?
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 03:29 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Quote:
how big is this system predicted to get?
Right now, at 5 days, Cat 2.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 03:34 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Just when I tholught we were done here we go again!
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 03:38 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Okay,
So Clark mentioned earlier a "possible hit between Cerdar Key and Sarasota" I am in St. Petersburg(Tampa Bay) and have already written OFF Hurricane Saeson 2005!(of course Murphy's Law kicks in)Really guys, what is the chance??? NHC has been very accurate in forecasting this year. so I am not liking what I see, but the early models are more in favor of a southward motion. I guess I am looking for some reasurance:)Thanks Everyone...You guys are GREAT!
Christine
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 04:03 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Quote:
Wow - I wonder how the values in http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/hh3.watl.20051015.gif
are derived and reduced, because if you look at
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/FS_km14nat00.gif
anything beneath ~37N in off the East Coast (for example) has average SST's of ~27C, where as the site that illustrates the "hurricane heat" has this same area at 0 content. Ummm....
Typhoon Tip:
This is becuase the Hurricane Heat Content (HHC) map heavily deals with not just the SST but also how deep that warm water penetrates. If you look at the depth of the 26C isotherm and compare it to the HHC map you will find that they are a fairly good match.
26C Isotherm depth: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/z26.watl.20051015.gif
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 04:05 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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This is the best looking TD I have ever seen (haha...that is the same as saying this is the best looking TD I've seen this season).
It seems again that outflow was so critical. The outflow was well-defined already by Friday afternoon (looking at 1800Z & 2100Z upper level winds on the 14th), when the low was centered over Jamaica.
| debwire |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 04:06 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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I'm also in St. Petersburg and as some of the current images indicate, we're potentially within that cone of threat. I certainly wouldn't like to see another hurricane hit anywhere but for the Tampa Bay area, should we ultimately be the target, please don't let this scenario be how it all plays out with WIlma (or any future hurricane):
http://tbo.com/hurricane2005/worstcase/worstcase.html
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 04:09 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Re heat content...they have certainly gone down significantly since a month ago, for the entire GOM.
Floater 1 now over TD24.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 04:23 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Quote:Quote:
Wow - I wonder how the values in http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/hh3.watl.20051015.gif
are derived and reduced, because if you look at
http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/FS_km14nat00.gif
anything beneath ~37N in off the East Coast (for example) has average SST's of ~27C, where as the site that illustrates the "hurricane heat" has this same area at 0 content. Ummm....
Typhoon Tip:
This is becuase the Hurricane Heat Content (HHC) map heavily deals with not just the SST but also how deep that warm water penetrates. If you look at the depth of the 26C isotherm and compare it to the HHC map you will find that they are a fairly good match.
26C Isotherm depth: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/z26.watl.20051015.gif
yeah, I figured it was the thermocline...
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 04:28 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Not sure what the real big difference between the two plots is, typhoon_tip. The hurricane heat content product is one that also takes into account sub-surface waters. Anywhere you see SSTs of ~27C or greater on the one map, you do see a non-zero (even if it is 1-10 kcal/cm^2) value of HHC; do note that the SST map only goes out to 60W (as noted in the header). However, those waters in the north Atlantic are only warm at the very top; the waters just beneath the surface are much cooler (<26C) and thus do not provide any heat content for the storm to use to maintain/increase its intensity. Waters in the Caribbean and Gulf, however, are warm to very large depths, bringing about very high values of HHC -- especially associated with the loop current and the climatologically warm waters in the NW Caribbean.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 04:37 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Quote:
Not sure what the real big difference between the two plots is, typhoon_tip. The hurricane heat content product is one that also takes into account sub-surface waters. Anywhere you see SSTs of ~27C or greater on the one map, you do see a non-zero (even if it is 1-10 kcal/cm^2) value of HHC; do note that the SST map only goes out to 60W (as noted in the header). However, those waters in the north Atlantic are only warm at the very top; the waters just beneath the surface are much cooler (<26C) and thus do not provide any heat content for the storm to use to maintain/increase its intensity. Waters in the Caribbean and Gulf, however, are warm to very large depths, bringing about very high values of HHC -- especially associated with the loop current and the climatologically warm waters in the NW Caribbean.
As I laid mention just moments ago, I had reasoned that they must be talking the thermocline, which indeed deals more with a vertical mixing layer... But, either way, if you see ~27C, that doesn't mean that it is "O" now does it?
As far as "60W" goes, I'm looking at a still anam that covers the entire wester/sw Atlantic Basin, when I'm looking at : http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/data/FS_km14nat00.gif... That clearly shows a warmer surface...However, I am willing to concede that this may be shallow, which is (quite frankly) hard to believe because a) the Gulf stream is there and that is 100 meters deep in some cases, and
b) there hasn't been anything to process the upper oceanic heat content this season in that district of the open ocean. Nor, has there been a substantial arctic outbreak spreading seawards from the continent.
Sorry, I still believe there may be a statistical disparity between what the ir impression of the sst is and these plots at the other site are. But, that's just opinion until I can see a better write up that tells us what the physics of the derivation and methodology is beyond the supposition of this forum
peace.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 04:40 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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The other thing is that http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/z26.watl.20051015.gif .....does not jive with 0 content in the other url, either... not the outline of the region that is greater than 0 that is... Maybe they mean "virtual" 0
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 05:03 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Ok, now that I am catching up...http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/z26.watl.20051015.gif is a better depiction I must say! bravo...
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 05:20 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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ssts... i use those with caution. seen enough atlantic storms over waters that supposedly couldn't support them maintain or even intensify in a baroclinic environment while over subpar waters. i believe the tropical cyclone threshold is really closer to 75-77F/24-25C. to get a mature, tropical hurricane in a marginal environment you probably do need the traditional 27C/80F, but there are enough exceptions in the subtropics early and late in the season that i don't really take it as a rule of thumb.
as far as those really warm ssts pools go, and the ocean layer depth, and all that... those are nice to know to fine tune intensity forecasts... i won't give them more than that. there seems to be a bit of intensity lag between a storm's energy source and how quickly it intensifies. environmental conditions also seem to really set the intensity threshold on a storm more than it's potential intensity as dictated by ssts.
just some observations... i'm sure tip and clark have more scientifically sound ways of explaining this stuff.
HF 0520z16october
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 05:33 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Convergence |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 05:48 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Woah there, there might be a small chance of the storm making Cat 5, but there is no way in hell it's going to maintain that to a US landfall. Cuba, maybe, but land interaction and significantly lower heat potential in the Gulf are going to keep Wilma's intensity down. Making claims like that before we even have a TS is at best speculation, anyway.
I expect we'll be getting a better picture when the models have a tighter system to work with... probably tomorrow night.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 05:52 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 06:17 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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sats back up.... some pretty cold cloud tops on the west side.... would expect the 5am to increase the winds to 35mph or even a TS status.... system is looking the best it has in the last 24hrs....... sadly.... its only going to grow now from here.... did some research today....on the water SST and depth.... i think that we may see another Rita type system.... I think the GFDL is on to something with a major cane.... the conditions from what i can tell will be almost peferfect i think for a strong major cane in about 2-3days.... only way it wouldn't happen is for some dry air to disrupt the cane......one thing is for sure... it's not going anywhere anytime soon....
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_wv_loop.gif
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 06:31 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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GFDL twenty-fo24l 2005101600
NOT LOOKING GOOD....... this model keeps getting worse...... Florida looks like it's next on the list for a cane.... notice at end of run... there is a low coming out of the central plains.....shooting up to the NE towards the ohio valley..... hmm....... seems to me there would be a front with this swinging south.... questions looks to be how strong and how far south..... weak... more north track.... stronger.....more NE track........ we will know more on about this i think late mon/tues...... GFDL backed off some again in strength.....
* i think though this run is a little to the right.... i did how ever like the UKM 00Z track....but maybe just a a bit slower*
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 06:44 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Since it is not April I guess the name of the game is trick or treat. I am hoping that the models are being played with by some little imp and that the white little area in the Caribbean near Jamaica is a dust storm off of Africa. My mind is having a hard time with figuring out whether or not to be alert or to be bored.
| Sneakbridge |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 11:28 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Quote:
My mind is having a hard time with figuring out whether or not to be alert or to be bored.
How about cautiously interested? =)
First things first though, it has to achieve TS status. The next 72 hrs will be interesting to watch.
| tornado00 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 12:38 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 24 Forms in Western Caribbean
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Just two days ago, we have our first cold front...more of a dry out front than a cold one, but in any terms an "illusion" of fall. Had a sense in my mind that hurricane season was now probably going to be anemic, and our chances of getting hit here is Central Florida pretty minute. Then..TD 24 pops up, and it looks like a familar face with the projected path, can you say Charley anyone? Obviously were not out of the dog house yet, just hopefully it doesn't amount to anything really powerful, or better yet, just fizzle itself out of existance. Lets wait and see.
| swimaway19 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 12:47 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Quote:
GFDL twenty-fo24l 2005101600
NOT LOOKING GOOD....... this model keeps getting worse...... Florida looks like it's next on the list for a cane.... notice at end of run... there is a low coming out of the central plains.....shooting up to the NE towards the ohio valley..... hmm....... seems to me there would be a front with this swinging south.... questions looks to be how strong and how far south..... weak... more north track.... stronger.....more NE track........ we will know more on about this i think late mon/tues...... GFDL backed off some again in strength.....
I just saw the 06Z run for the GDFL and it looked like the model sped it up a little, with the Tampa region receiving Cat 1 winds by Fri. Afternoon. This does not look good.....
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 12:53 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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yep! just saw the 06 GFS...looks like it has a thing for tampa.....
Read the discussion from stewart this morning.... was very good.....
we should have wilma by 11am.....i am starting to think she will miss the tip of cuba when she starts to head that way.....anyway recon will be out there later...
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 01:01 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Remember that the pattern isnt set yet for the next 36hrs until maybe mid-week, so the models may jump around still and infact most likely will. I will say I think landfall looks like Friday but wont know for sure until Tuesday evening. The Keys to Panama City looks like a good bet. Matters exactly on when the trough over the SW gets moving along combined with energy coming down into the Mississippi valley by mid-week. I expect the models will increase the speed of the system during the late week and move at modest pace 15-20mph by Friday. For the next 24 hrs though this should just drift w.
scottsvb
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 01:30 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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11am or 5pm? Probably when recon will go out there but the system over the last 6 hrs has gotten better organized with convection now almost completely over the center. Pressures are near 1002mb which would normally = 45mph but this is a large oval system so I would take off 5 mph for now and call it a possible 40mph. Sat obs also support 40mph at this time. Bouys dont show any winds over 25kt but there probably is near the deep convection at least.
Overall its very close to TS status.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 02:37 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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no TS at 11am.... and she is not going anywhere anytime soon...
...DEPRESSION STALLED IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...
REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...17.1 N... 79.3 W. MOVEMENT
...STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 02:38 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Since the satellite presentation is ambiguous as far as whether this is a TS yet or not, I would assume they would wait until they get some confirmation from the next aircraft before upgrading it, unless there are some recent buoy reports to suggest stronger winds.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 02:43 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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11am discussion
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS
MODEL EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT FAVORS THE GFDL LATER ON.
THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...AND PERHAPS MAY HAVE DRIFTED A LITTLE NORTHEAST OF THE
ADVISORY POSITION.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 02:49 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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LOL just read what franklin says in his blog at the NHC and read my previous 2 quick posts above and you almost get word for word again,.....shees,,,,,,,anyways we are generally word to word the same on whats going on or what might happen, just funny how we at times say almost the same things.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 02:58 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Quote:
ssts... i use those with caution. seen enough atlantic storms over waters that supposedly couldn't support them maintain or even intensify in a baroclinic environment while over subpar waters. i believe the tropical cyclone threshold is really closer to 75-77F/24-25C. to get a mature, tropical hurricane in a marginal environment you probably do need the traditional 27C/80F, but there are enough exceptions in the subtropics early and late in the season that i don't really take it as a rule of thumb.
as far as those really warm ssts pools go, and the ocean layer depth, and all that... those are nice to know to fine tune intensity forecasts... i won't give them more than that. there seems to be a bit of intensity lag between a storm's energy source and how quickly it intensifies. environmental conditions also seem to really set the intensity threshold on a storm more than it's potential intensity as dictated by ssts.
just some observations... i'm sure tip and clark have more scientifically sound ways of explaining this stuff.
HF 0520z16october
Honestly, HankFrank... I was really more conceding with those others to tone it down some...
Personally, I have contentions all over the place with science's definitions and attempts to quantize boundaries in nature, not just for what temperatures can support this or that in Meteorology, but also, the storms that result them selves...
In essence, I agree with you in whole.
First of all...the sounding structure and ratios of wet and dry air between the ss and the U/A are equally as important in the physics of these beasts. That is why your assertion of mid 70's water has merit... Notwithstanding, storms of lore, such as the "Perfect Storm", this season's Vince, perhaps the event on the Brazil Coast last year in April, these are all quantized hurricane or hurrinace like events that didn't have waters temps of 80 to draw from... But, if you look at the sounding, you'll see that the remarkable similarities - both to one anothers anticedent conditions as well as comparable (by ratio) to the potential instability of a purer tropical sounding...
If all that wasn't enough, the "President's Day Blizzard" of 1979 had and eye, and a quasi-warm core!
Fact of the matter is, there are extremes on the spectrum of storm types that are wholey unique compared, however, the spectrum does not really have a black and white area where you either get one kind or the other.. .i.e, there are warm cores, hybrids, hybrid warm cores, hybrid cold cores and you could define these to Jupiters Great Red Spot and back and still not come up with enough definitions of the storms that can fall in between.
Certaintly a fascinating area of study and I won't bog this page down with Skew-T plots to diagram this stuff, either..
That being said.... Have you seen the 06z GFS! Oh My Goodness... what do we have here... I tell yeah, the GFS tries to do this every autumn in seems... We have Wilma now smartly evolved in the GFS and moving parallel to the East Coast; why, because as we elucidated yesterday, the NAO supported notion of a deeper Ohio and Upper Ohio Valley trough (suddenly, that appears in the overnight runs...) seems to be appearing in the runs. This logically imparts S components along the East Coast. Anyway, the GFS is taking a powerful piece of polar energy and plunging into a closing solution near the New York Bite water area of the N mid-Atlantic, in the area of said trough greatest amplification. This is eerie...because at that time, Wilma is careening N just off shore and appears to be captured by this polar energy, the two phasing, and bombing to 960mb or so in the Gulf of Maine! It's incredible! You think that you have a pure warm core feature being captured by a closing U/A low that almost has winter characteristics for have a core down to like 526dm heights!
But, I've seen this in the last couple of autumns frankly; yet to see this type of exotic phased result pan out. Notwithstanding, the typic huge margin for forecast errors this far out in time, particularly when throwing Wilma into the fray are quite large as an understatement... So, if nothing else, this more for, 'can you imagine if that happened'.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 03:17 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
|
First off, I can't see every post on here all the time, so I don't always know if something has already been addressed. Having said that, there is absolutely no statistical discrepancy between the two products.
The HHC product is one based off of simple thermodynamical principles relating temperature to energy content. If you take the temperature over an oceanic depth (100m) and convert it to an energy using those equations, you can obtain the HHC product. Substantial values generally arise for SSTs >27C; non-zero values arise for SSTs >= 26C. I have the two plots up on my browser right now -- the only area where you may see a discrepancy is near the 26C isotherm on the edges, and that is solely because of the color scale used that has all HHC values from about 0-2 kcal/cm^2 as the same color. Those waters drop off in temperature fast below the surface and you'd expect the contributions to the HHC to be near-zero.
I'm not sure what you mean by there being no systems in the western or SW Atlantic this season to churn up the waters...Ophelia did a number on the Gulf Stream waters not all that long ago and the area near and just south/southwest of Bermuda all the way to Florida has seen many, many storms this season -- Tammy, Rita, Katrina, Nate, the aforementioned Ophelia, Irene, Franklin, and Harvey. The near-shore waters -- between the shore and the Gulf stream -- are also going to be cooler than you might expect due to Ekman-related divergence of the waters away from the SE US coast.
Finally, that product is limited in that it doesn't really account for cases like Vince -- the extratropical-subtropical-tropical conversion cases over typically sub-standard SSTs/atmospheric conditions. The only one that really does is MPI, and that doesn't account for shear at all and is generally an overestimator of a storm's actual intensity by 20mb or greater. There is no single product and all of them should be used in concert with each other to balance out their weaknesses. However, for a case in the NW Caribbean such as future-Wilma, it is a pretty useful product to show the energy available to the system. Unlike in the Atlantic, these waters have not been tapped since July with Dennis and Emily.
Simply put, there is no perfect utility to use -- and as I and others have always said, they are just that, utilities. For a storm in the tropics, they work reasonably well. In the subtropics, not as well.
And trust me, I know the differences between all of the types of storms and what they can/cannot do...and I also know that model representation of tropical cyclones AND extratropical transition often borders on pathetic. Intensity forecasting is not an exact science.
As for the climate indices...color me unconvinced. They are more reflections of what is actually occurring as opposed to indicators of what is to come (other than those such as ENSO). The NAO is derived from projecting surface pressures onto rotated EOFs across the northern hemisphere, with different modes from the EOFs proving to be more important than others during particular times of the year. The leading mode only accounts for about 20% of the variance in the entire data set. It's good to know, but once again -- just a utility, not a robust forecast product. And, ultimately, for extratropical transition, we're finding that patterns more consistant with the Arctic oscillation may be more important than the NAO...again though, it's still in the formative stages and only just a utility.
| weatherwatcher999 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 04:15 PM |
Re: wilma on the way
|
This is a tough forecast...
It could go to the yucatan, or central cuba (i hope not, i'm going there in december).
I personally think that soon to be wilma might take a charley, or hopefully not an ivan/katrina/rita track. But the models have the sunshine state under the gun... but whatever the track is, i think this thing can easily become a major hurricane if it goes into the GOM, and it could still be one if it takes a charley track...
I think this one could even be a H4 if it passes through the straits of florida-three hurricanes (charley, katrina, rita) have underwent explosive deepening there, so it's still possible.
But nothing's certain with it being stationary-so this should be closely watched.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 04:33 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
|
Quote:
First off, I can't see every post on here all the time, so I don't always know if something has already been addressed. Having said that, there is absolutely no statistical discrepancy between the two products.
The HHC product is one based off of simple thermodynamical principles relating temperature to energy content. If you take the temperature over an oceanic depth (100m) and convert it to an energy using those equations, you can obtain the HHC product. Substantial values generally arise for SSTs >27C; non-zero values arise for SSTs >= 26C. I have the two plots up on my browser right now -- the only area where you may see a discrepancy is near the 26C isotherm on the edges, and that is solely because of the color scale used that has all HHC values from about 0-2 kcal/cm^2 as the same color. Those waters drop off in temperature fast below the surface and you'd expect the contributions to the HHC to be near-zero.
I'm not sure what you mean by there being no systems in the western or SW Atlantic this season to churn up the waters...Ophelia did a number on the Gulf Stream waters not all that long ago and the area near and just south/southwest of Bermuda all the way to Florida has seen many, many storms this season -- Tammy, Rita, Katrina, Nate, the aforementioned Ophelia, Irene, Franklin, and Harvey. The near-shore waters -- between the shore and the Gulf stream -- are also going to be cooler than you might expect due to Ekman-related divergence of the waters away from the SE US coast.
Finally, that product is limited in that it doesn't really account for cases like Vince -- the extratropical-subtropical-tropical conversion cases over typically sub-standard SSTs/atmospheric conditions. The only one that really does is MPI, and that doesn't account for shear at all and is generally an overestimator of a storm's actual intensity by 20mb or greater. There is no single product and all of them should be used in concert with each other to balance out their weaknesses. However, for a case in the NW Caribbean such as future-Wilma, it is a pretty useful product to show the energy available to the system. Unlike in the Atlantic, these waters have not been tapped since July with Dennis and Emily.
Simply put, there is no perfect utility to use -- and as I and others have always said, they are just that, utilities. For a storm in the tropics, they work reasonably well. In the subtropics, not as well.
And trust me, I know the differences between all of the types of storms and what they can/cannot do...and I also know that model representation of tropical cyclones AND extratropical transition often borders on pathetic. Intensity forecasting is not an exact science.
As for the climate indices...color me unconvinced. They are more reflections of what is actually occurring as opposed to indicators of what is to come (other than those such as ENSO). The NAO is derived from projecting surface pressures onto rotated EOFs across the northern hemisphere, with different modes from the EOFs proving to be more important than others during particular times of the year. The leading mode only accounts for about 20% of the variance in the entire data set. It's good to know, but once again -- just a utility, not a robust forecast product. And, ultimately, for extratropical transition, we're finding that patterns more consistant with the Arctic oscillation may be more important than the NAO...again though, it's still in the formative stages and only just a utility.
Hi Clark... None of what you said is incorrect.. It's all reasonable to me... Just 4 small points:
First, what I was just touching on with HankFrank is that these numbers are less important as better understanding about the spectra of possible storms is becoming better understood. (I sense we are in agreement here). Events such as Vince, Brazil last April, maybe the Perfect Storm and so forth, they all demonstrate that 26C vs. 27C are not limitations; perhaps looked on with too much rigidity sometimes? Those plots in question, they do have usefulness - that's not even open to debate for obvious reason. It is, however, important to point out that 0 energy is indeed a bit of a misnomer; that is, when we acknowledge the former reasoning. I would just like to add, unless the ocean is frozen over with ice there is always potential energy; it's really a matter of the vertical profile of your troposphere that dictates whether it is usable energy or not... It just so happens that planetary mean tropospheric values favor the end of the spectrum over 80F. It is of course obvious that 90% of systems need the warmer SST, indeed. Having said all that, please elaborate on "The only one that really does is MPI"... I've never heard of such a tool - sounds fascinating.. Is there an availability to the public?
Secondly, the area of the Atlantic that I was referring to when the discussion got under way (....ah, late last night when I was probably to tired to be lucid about the subject matter...my apologies) was the region bounded by 25N and 33N, and between 60W/75W. That area in particular looked at first glance to be a dubiously characterized based on the two urls when in comparison. But, if you go back across the logs I did concede once I saw a decent enough presentation. I agree that Ophelia traversed the area of the Gulf Stream on the western fringe of said area, but, that is not necessarily "in" the said area. Also, the Gulf Stream (as you know) is not a stationary entity... Check this, but I think it moves along at 3kts average? Anyway, that being the case, a month at 3kts, combined with last weeks full latitude southerly flow over that area (as also evidenced by ir anyway) suggests that any processing by Ophelia is pretty much negligible and/or indistinguishable at this time. You are correct that a couple of predators really stalked Florida from the east, but they originated in an area beneath 27 or so N, by more than 65W, making them irrelevant to said bounded area above. As far as Katrina, Rita and on and on...Sure, I have no issue with what they did to any SST's outside the area in question. Though it is too late in the season to expect this, if a system developed and moved N of the Islands and stayed 200naut miles N of Puerto Rico, and curved N near 72W by 25N, it would in fact be traversing an area that has not been processed, or has not been processed in so long that it wouldn't matter... (stated just as a facsimile). Now, that does not discount the possibility that the warm water that is evidenced there may be shallow - I'm fine with integrating for depth.
Thirdly, NAO is defined as a climate index, not doubt...However, it is factually evident that a negative NAO is strongly statistically correlated to a negative anomaly in the Ohio Valley area... And, the NAO has a very short none-linear periodicity that flips phases sometimes weekly in more chaotic times; and, sometimes these changes are almost immediately impacting the westerlies above 30N. The only reason that point was brought up is because (as you know) there is at least "hints" in a lot of the runs that Wilma (should she be named) may get hung up in one such trough... The is particularly evident in the 06z run of the GFS (if you haven't already seen)... There's a lot at stake with that. We have a water -logged New England area that is, for lack of better words...categorically opposed to the notion of a strong tropical or hybrid transitioning system careening at them from the S... Also, obviously the stakes are high in the upper Gulf Coastal region... Point being, all this vulnerability is exposing when the NAO is negative and in tandem, the models just happen to have a teleconnected mid-latitude trough willing to do the steering.
Lastly, I hope no one's knowledge was ever in question... If you ever felt as though that was being questioned, feel free to disregard any of those comments, particularly by me, because I try to go out of my way to consider everyone's point of view.
Can't wait to see what the 12z runs do with this thing...
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 04:39 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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The runs will change from each one, especially out more then 2-3days. When it gets within 72hrs of landfall, then we will really need to locate a general area where it might impact but still that can even change.
| k___g |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 04:45 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Will this season ever end? I was really beginning to feel as if we were able to signal the "all clear". YIKES!!!
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 04:50 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Thanks to all the mets on here... I am trying to understand the way the weaknesses in the ridge will affect TD24's ultimate track. For obvious reasons, comparisons to Charley are not exactly comforting right now!
Anyway, I understand that the ultimate effect will be to pull the storm northward, but is there anything out there to indicate whether it would go due north toward the Florida panhandle, northeast toward the Florida coast, or northwest, more toward the battered Gulf Coast states? For instance, with Charley it was known days in advance that there would be an eventual northeasterly component to the storm's movement. Is this known yet for TD24? Or is it simply too soon to say? Thanks.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 05:01 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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You just asked the $64,000.00 questions as to where she will go, It still to soon to say looking at a landfall 7 or 8 days maybe, think everybody on south coast,west coast, panhandle needs to watch this one..
Dave
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 05:08 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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It is interesting that the GFDL, while wavering on how exactly it gets there....is fairly persistent on the upper-interior Gulf Coast side of Florida. Also, the CMC has been fairly consistent with a crossing central Cuba and then parelleling the East Coast before taking the right turn into the grave yard. As usual, the best hope is:
(model compromise+special insight)/2
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 05:09 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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How accurate have the GFDL and the GFS been this year with early forecasting? Sure don't like what they have to say
Thanks
Christine
St. Petersburg, FL
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 05:14 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Think the one thing that is a given here is that a good part of the FL peninsular will be in a storm watch eventually unless further down the road the Canadian and the GFDL group come together more...
This time of year when a storm is SW of Florida you have to worry.
More curious what everyone here thinks on timing issue.
Will she sit there a long time or when will she begin moving north?
Thanks for sharing your thoughts
| bobbutts |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 05:14 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Since last night's 2100z forecast and today's 1500z the NHC have snuck the storm a bit farther west and stronger in the long term forecast. Still too early to say confidently, but it's starting to look like here in Port Charlotte we'll be watching another storm that is forecast to parallel the coast west of us hoping that it doesn't curve ne. As with Charley, on this course even a small change, in heading would mean a big change in landfall point.
initial 15/2100z 17.6n 78.8w 25 kt
12hr VT 16/0600z 17.5n 79.5w 35 kt
24hr VT 16/1800z 17.5n 80.0w 45 kt
36hr VT 17/0600z 17.5n 80.5w 60 kt
48hr VT 17/1800z 17.5n 81.0w 70 kt
72hr VT 18/1800z 17.5n 82.0w 80 kt
96hr VT 19/1800z 18.0n 82.5w 85 kt
120hr VT 20/1800z 19.5n 83.0w 85 kt
INITIAL 16/1500Z 17.1N 79.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 17/0000Z 17.1N 79.6W 35 KT
24HR VT 17/1200Z 17.2N 80.0W 45 KT
36HR VT 18/0000Z 17.3N 80.5W 55 KT
48HR VT 18/1200Z 17.7N 81.2W 65 KT
72HR VT 19/1200Z 18.5N 82.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 20/1200Z 20.5N 84.0W 90 KT
120HR VT 21/1200Z 23.5N 84.5W 95 KT
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 05:16 PM |
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|
how far west she goes makes a big difference
|
A storm that goes through the Yucatan will go over more water, warm water.. various currents and get into the Gulf stronger.
A storm that goes NNW or N through Cuba will obviously take longer to reform.
Projected strength goes hand in hand here with path.
Meanwhile..she is still stationary officially.
thanks for the numbers
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 05:20 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
|
I have noticed that every time Florida is named early on by the models to be effected, the conditions seem to change and the direction seems to change. (That has been a really good thing this year). But, as the year gets later, the models do not seem to do as well and there are surprises. Kate in the 1980's is an example of a surprise. She hit the panhandle and was still gusting 90mph winds or greater when she was 50 miles in land. (car miles). It might not be 50 miles from the shoreline to Tallahassee,.The best thing is to have your supplies topped off. If you are going to need gasoline this week get it now before there is an official storm, if your family is like mine, they have already gotten into the good stuff you bought and now you will be left with the stuff that you would not eat unless desparate. So get a little more of the good stuff that you can enjoy while watching the news reports on the blizzards up north. Learn some of the lessons of Katrina and Rita. The government, no matter how good its intentions are, is not capable of personally rescuing you from a mobile home that is not tied down, that is sitting on a water front property next to a river or a bayou. If you paid some one a really good deal on a roof from last years storms, rethink how much you paid compared to the going rate around you.Is it still a good deal? For Goodness sake don't get caught up in the last minute buying frenzy. Doing something helps relieve anxiety. Standing in a line waiting for 2 hours to buy food that you don't even like is a waste of time. If the storm gets closer start eating the stuff in the freezer first. While it is fresh and you have electricity. ITs cool enough to enjoy those steaks, chops, or other meats that will spoil if the freezer goes off for long. Insect repellent and flash light batteries are a very important thing. Even if we do not get a storm here in Florida, some one during the excitment of the chase, could run into a pole that has your neighborhoods transformer on it. The time is still long even if there is not a storm. One last suggestion, everyone stand on the shore or from their homes and puff really hard, maybe the storm will stall in the middle of the Gulf and Die.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 05:47 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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the evolving synoptic pattern favors a hurricane strike on the west coast of florida at the end of next week, is what everything boils down to right now. a semblance of the subtropical ridge should build in and strengthen to the east, while the heights fall to the northwest and north by later in the week... this general pattern should produce a recurvature over western cuba and the florida peninsula. i'm not buying into western solutions that take it over the yucatan or perhaps to the panhandle for now as they imply a more robust ridge and either a very small or sharp, lagging ridge. the eastern cmc solution would be best for everybody but it doesn't see any ridge, which doesn't look right for now.
based on the normal phenology of such storms over warm water/upper anticyclonic circulation i'd expect wilma to get named and slowly spin up until later tomorrow or tuesday, then start deepening like crazy as the inner core becomes well-defined. around wednesday/thursday the storm should bottom out.. probably as a category 4 or so. as it begins to move northward, interacts with cuba, and crosses over the slightly less warm waters of the gulf, and begins to feel the westerlies.. i'd expect it to weaken to a category 2 or 3 level storm. if i had to put money that's where it would be. as far as impact location the peninsula ought to consider themselves threatened, but especially the southwest and west-central coasts... the keys to cedar key region more or less. the tampa bay area, sarasota, fort myers, and the i-4 corridor need to worry about this one.
depending on how sharp the trough is and how robust the ridge to the east is... the storm may stay close enough to the east coast to continue creating troubles. baroclinic energy sources can keep a system ahead of one of these mid-latitude troughs quite strong... from the outer banks to new england there may be a secondary impact zone if the storm is to try phasing in to the westerlies as tip mentioned. aside from what florida would have to deal with, this would be the worst case scenario... a hurricane following up the flooding already ongoing in the northeast would likely cause the worst flooding new england has seen in decades.
i'll just toss out that there's a weak low in a sheared environment with that former invest in the eastern atlantic near 20/35 right now.. which may find itself under better upper air conditions in another couple of days. with strongly positive SOI and zonal ridging in the atlantic even an unlikely system like that would need to be watched for some development potential.
the fact that positive SOI is here favoring zonal ridging, and negative NAO is here favoring blocking and troughiness in the eastern u.s... in tandem, suggests that the storm will be near the dividing line of the potential spheres of influence of either teleconnection. it'll be interesting to see whether the zonal ridging tendency of SOI+ or the phasing/amplified tendency of NAO- wins out with this storm.
HF 1747z16october
worth noting that a typhoon is recurving past japan and should pass by in 3-4 days. that would favor a trough in the east roughly 6-7 days later... which is beyond the timeframe that wilma should be threatening... i guess that's modestly encouraging because a few troughs have bypassed typhoon kirogi south of japan, letting it wiggle around for days. maybe wilma will buzz by florida and leave the rest of the coast alone. -HF
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 05:48 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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well recon didn't make it in time for 2pm.... but they are close:
(just SE of the cayman islands)
URNT11 KNHC 161735
97779 17304 10191 82210 61000 04022 57768 /8038
RMK AF309 0224A CYCLONE OB 09
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 06:10 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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URNT11 KNHC 161800
97779 17524 10185 80700 02100 05013 26231 /0005
40515
RMK AF309 0224A CYCLONE OB 10
pressure 1005mb?
they are very close to center..... but based on latest sat....not sure there is a well defined inner core yet... there is only a small set of storms over the center...... appears that dry air is some how keeping her strained...
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 06:14 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
|
Quote:
Think the one thing that is a given here is that a good part of the FL peninsular will be in a storm watch eventually unless further down the road the Canadian and the GFDL group come together more...
This time of year when a storm is SW of Florida you have to worry.
More curious what everyone here thinks on timing issue.
Will she sit there a long time or when will she begin moving north?
Thanks for sharing your thoughts
You are definitely right that a system sitting in the Western Carribean Sea in mid October should not sit well with Floridians... The climatologically derived regions for hurricane frequency shows the area, together with the eastern Gulf of Mexico, as well as the area off the SE U.S. Coast have the greatest numbers of occurrences. In addition, most tracks after in situ generation tend to be N, NNE and NEwards. This unfortunately places Florida in a climate favored location to be affected.
The trouble with climate is its an accumulation of past behavior... It doesn't ultimately say anything about what the pattern at hand will command. In this case, however, there are governing parameters in the synoptics that connote a fairly climate-friendly behaved system; which is to say, Floridians have much to be concerned about. All that means is a track close to western Cuba and then NNE toward the West Coat of Florida is a preferred solution when balancing synoptic prediction of major influences to track guidance, at this time. Not absolute - never a certainty, just favored. This will also be suggest below by model depiction.
As far as timing goes... The trick is, does the amplification in the Nation's Heartland penetrate deeply enough in latitude to induce a southerly steering flow? That will be established if said trough incurs upon and then erodes the ridge over the N Gulf. That would tend to initiate a NW motion to Wilma....and then, the subsequent thinking that a NW motion would have to take on N, then NNE becomes entirely intuitive. The devil's in the details as my mentor always used to say.. It is still possible, though seemingly less likely, that the trough to the N never fully amplifies and leave Wilma after only tugging her N - then all bets would be off.
I am a bit uneasy about the global models handling the expected trough in the Heartland, days 5-7. Take the difference between the 06z and the 12z GFS for example: In the former run, a large positive height anomaly evolves near the Davis Straight area (this being relevant because having a positive height departure there tends to signal troughing in the contiguous eastern U.S.), and in concert a powerhouse U/A impulse slices into the northern Ohio Valley and cuts off... This definitely has enough amplitude to grab hold of Wilma a sling her up the East Coast (having crossed Florida), even impacting areas of Eastern New England. Where as, this day's 12z run is much, much less amplified with the westerlies in the Ohio Valley, and this results a much weaker less influential steering field along the East Coast. These types of large scale mass discontinuities across single model runs do not lend much confidence.
The average of the models I have seen,against my personal intuition, suggests "potentially" impacting in western Florida, 6 days out? The deciding factor pulling me this direction would be the interesting agreement in timing (and almost placement) that the GFS has with the GFDL.. Thereafter, it will remain to be seen how Wilma is lifted in latitude, whether N component or more E component; that will come down, again, to how amplified the trough slated to settle into 80-ishW lon really becomes. But...in the end the bottom line is that it is too early to be precise with much credibility. ho-hum, how would a crystal ball help us now?
| weatherwatcher999 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 06:39 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Well, she looks like a teardrop in the satellite images when you click on the track of 24. Maybe tropical depression 24 is depressed
I'd say once the pressure gets down to under 1000 MB, we'll have wilma, and since we still have a month and a half of the season left, alpha is waiting to start it's engine.
Wilma looks like it'll be our october major hurricane, number 13 if i'm not mistaken.
I have a question-What year on record had the most hurricanes???
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 06:40 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Quote:
.... appears that dry air is some how keeping her strained...
Yes and so it's going to take a little longer to get going. NHC mentioned the dry air in the 5am disc. The lower-level circulation is well-developed, and we have seen these to be tenacious. And the area of circulation has grown considerably in the last 24 hours; I am beginning to think when these storms can't intensify, the energy goes to increase their size. Also the outflow continues to be very strong. So to my eyes this TD continues to look very good, even with the inroads the dry air has made to the NW side. So even if dry air keeps development on a leash, she won't fall apart.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 06:49 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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The models confuse me. I ran all the models and the only one that takes #24 close to Florida is the GFDL. The Canadian model takes the storm through Cuba and then NE through the Bahamas. NOGAPS takes it near the Yucatan. GFS doesn't do much with it and the FSU model appears to be having problems. For some reason the only GFDL i can run is sea surface pressure. All the other options don't work; something to do with Java.
Edit - The UKMET takes the storm through the Yucatan Peninsula and then looks to take a NE turn after that....weird stuff.
Edit 2 - GFS takes it through the Yucatan and then north towards LA/MS.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 06:50 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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URNT12 KNHC 161834
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/18:19:40Z
B. 17 deg 36 min N
079 deg 18 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 14 kt
E. 290 deg 090 nm
F. 055 deg 014 kt
G. 305 deg 094 nm
H. EXTRAP 1002 mb
I. 24 C/ 301 m
J. 24 C/ 366 m
K. 23 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 1
O. 0.02 / 4 nm
P. AF309 0224A CYCLONE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 14 KT NW QUAD 14:58:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
SCF CNTR WITHIN 5NM OF FL CNTR
| Hootowl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 06:59 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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The models have swung left (west) since this morning. They are probably having a little difficulty since TD24 isn't moving much right now. Wait a day or so. They will have a better handle on things then. IMHO
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 07:02 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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I checked the models again and it seems they have moved west a little since this morning and last night. Looks as though maybe and thats a big maybe, this thing might just go further north before recurving towards Florida. Just my observation though - take it with a grain of salt; i am not a pro.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 07:07 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Exactly, it's not moving at all which means it could decide to start moving more north now or continue west...it's a waiting game.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 07:14 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Damejune, look for general trends within the models, not just at the most current graphics. Keep in mind that being the most up to date solution does not necessarily imply the most accuracy. The GFDL, for example, has been somewhat consistent with the last three runs, oscillating more with intensity and speed than location, I think. Check out the 06z GFS, which took it through the Yucatan straight and landfalls somewhere north of Sarasota. Granted, it does like to nudge the storm west more and more with each run.
The cyclone’s eventual landfall is way out of the good timeframe for these things anyway , so there really isn’t much to say at this juncture.
This is going to be a painful wait, methinks.
EDIT: To answer your below question, you can do this in the ‘initial time column’. Scroll down and pick whatever one you want; 2005101612, 06, 00, etc (they do a new one every six hours).
Be careful with the gfdl, which is a limited area baroclinic model. To get the super detailed images of the hurricane's eyewall and crap like that, they have to focus on a small area, as it would be too time-consuming to render the entire basin. The different grids of focus are designated by storm name, so be sure to pick td24, not the east pacific thing.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 07:20 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Just a snippet here from NWS TBW AFD
"THERE IS GREAT UNCERTAINTY THROUGH THE REST OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD DUE TO TD 24. CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS A HURRICANE
(WHICH WOULD BE NAMED WILMA) JUST OFF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA BY
FRIDAY MORNING. BEYOND THAT MOST LONG RANGE MODELS CURVE IT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND TAKE IT SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SOMETIME
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT AS
TO WHAT EXACTLY WILL HAPPEN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND CONTINUE TRENDING TOWARD A WETTER FORECAST IF
THESE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE."
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 07:23 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Gotcha. But i checked what you were saying and the models don't give an option that brings the storm close to land. How do i advance it to that point, like landfall north of sarasota? The farthest i get is 144 hrs which is right near the coast. North of sarasota is where i am at so i hope that solution doesn't come to fruition.
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 08:26 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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We're stretching the outer limits of the models by looking at things 144 and 168 hrs out. Any model that far out is really not very practical for storm forecasting anyway. Looking that far out, one has to assume climatology and the general setup at the end of the model period. All of that suggests that potential Wilma would be heading NE or NNE by that time. So take your favorite model, and extrapolate out the general area from the end of the model following the general path given from the preceding 48 hours.
Basically, if this thing develops, one would expect it to head perhaps a bit west, then N then NE. That puts the eastern side of the Gulf Of Mexico most in play, with Florida being the highest odds. That said, the odds aren't all that great of a Florida hit at this point, the odds are just better for Florida than anywhere else right now.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 08:39 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Does anyone have a good link to spaghetti models for Wilma? Greatly appreciated.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 08:42 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Based on what i seen with recon.... and now the 5pm confirms... still a TD....
...AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED...
REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...17.7 N... 79.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
| bobbutts |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 09:06 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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spaghetti model
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_24.gif
another shift to the west long range from the NHC on the 5 update
I'm wondering what that would translate to after 120hrs.. a more perpendicular path to the fl west coast or perhaps somewhere on the N Gulf?
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 09:55 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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By the looks of the models it appears the northern gulf but obviously way to early to tell. Weve faired really well so far!
| crpeavley |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 10:52 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Looking at the freshly released 18Z GFS, the only thing that has changed from last night's runs is the time of projected impact, from an early Sat. to a late Mon/Tues event. Otherwise, the west coast of Fl. remains the primary area of concern.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 11:16 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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The only GFS I get is the 12 and it shows it going to New Orleans. Please note that I am a rank amature reading these things and could very well be making a huge mistake.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 11:33 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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I just saw the 18z GFS and it looks like the model slows it and moves it further west then the 12z
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 11:39 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Yes, the 18Z run shows it going over the Yucatan. If that confirms over time, I'll feel better since I'm going to Grand Cayman on Thursday to do inventory through the 30th. I really wouldn't want to be away from my family while they were facing a hurricane.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 11:45 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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I agree, I'm going to Louisiana to assess damage to some property. I don't need any more floods
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 11:46 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Try cleaning out your old cache and then looking at the various hours out. Remember also that some of the moderators and posters on here have access to data due to their professions that we lay-people do not. There is not a lot of data available to the general public without a fee. Now and then some one will publish something that they themselves purchased but they are not really supposed to. Any way, those models given at the end of the front page are considered to be experimental and are just a taste of the data used to actually determine the direction and intensity of these hurricanes. That is why the posters who know what is going on are very careful not to give out specific information as fact because it is not complete information.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Oct 16 2005 11:49 PM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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So, the models we see (GFS) when we click on a link aren't complete; they go out 144 hours? I was looking at the trend of the runs too. Again, I repeat for anyone reading my posts, I have no experience with this, I'm just making asumptions with my untrained eye.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 12:25 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 24 Forms in Western Caribbean
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No way this storm could head for Texas, right? If it does get into the gulf we are looking at the northeastern Gulf, correct?
Not that I'd wish a storm on anyone but we are still cleaning up from the last one that hit here. This has been an
interesting season, hasn't it?
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 12:49 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 24 Forms in Western Caribbean
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The way it's been looking this last 24 hours it could just as easily fizzle out, but I don't really think we'll be that lucky.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 12:51 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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You could also use this site
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/...5101612!!!step/
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 12:58 AM |
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Models
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Here is a standard NCEP link that is available on the NOAA site. It may be of some help. The GFS is usually available about 4 hours or so after the 'run' time, i.e., the 00Z GFS would normally be available shortly after 04Z. Keep in mind that after about 4 or 5 days the forecast accuracy really is subject to considerable change.
ED
NCEP Caribbean Model Output
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:07 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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The second link is scary! I wonder how accurate that one is?
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:10 AM |
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Re: Models
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Hey--long time since I've made a post. I've been pretty busy with college apps and senior year, but I have been watching the tropics as well.
For TD24...I'd say that the 18Z GFS shows a reasonable scenario with an eventual sharp turn to the right. To echo what others have been saying, it is still too early to make a call on this storm. There are still many model runs as well as much time to watch TD24.
I suppose we could see an intense hurricane out of this eventually. At the same time, the very slow strengthening that has recently occured isn't overly impressive. We'll see...
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:10 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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The 2nd one predicts Central Florida on Sunday!
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:16 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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BAMM Medium & Depp now show it going almost due west into the yucatan over the next 5 days. That's going to be some right turn into Florida.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:18 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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how accurate have they been? So whats all; the hype with the extreme right hook?
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:23 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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I just say it to note that the models keep shifting further west. The GFS shows it heading west into the Yukatan and then a right across the GOM in central Florida a week from today. The storm needs to be watched.
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:29 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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I realize that making a sharp right hook from the yucatan is not the same as being there already and heading east. But just a reminder that Hurricane Mitch in 98 after it split into 2 pieces one re-emerged into the bay of campeche, became tropical storm mitch and landfalled near Ft. Myers, with a similar large scale pattern in place, but I think the real key here is time since the thing is barely moving I don't think the models have gotten a good handle on it yet.
Hurricane Charley '04 (Port Charlotte)
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:31 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Quote:
BAMM Medium & Depp now show it going almost due west into the yucatan over the next 5 days. That's going to be some right turn into Florida.
BAM Models aren't all too good with track.
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:32 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Quote:
how accurate have they been? So whats all; the hype with the extreme right hook?
BAMx and LBARx are fairly simple models (compared to some of the more recent dynamic models) and they tend to be less accurate - especially the further out you go.
The various BAMx models look at different layers in the atmosphere for steering information, which is why they often come up with VERY different tracks. The problem with relying on them is that a storm isn't steered by the same layers of the atmosphere at different points in its life, and at different strengths .....
Its too early to know what's going to happen with this one, but the synoptic pattern at this time of the year tends to support recurvature as storms come northward, and it also tends to support a general northward motion over time. The reason is that as fall progresses troughs tend to make it further down in latitude, and they tend to be stronger - in the summer they almost never make it all the way to the gulf - in the fall they often do.
First, we have to see this thing gets its act together. I'm in the camp that says it probably will, but I'm still on the fence in terms of what I think about an ultimate track. Note that the NHC's "track" is basically just up the middle of a big BLOB - its not until they (and everyone else) are able to come up with a better handle on what they think is going to occur in the atmosphere that will steer what this turns into, and the ultimate strength that this thing has at that time, that a better prognostication of where its going to go can be made.
IMHO anyone from the Keys to roughly NO needs to be paying attention to this thing right now - that's obviously a HUGE swath of real estate, but looking in on this system at least daily right now would not be a bad idea. In the next 3-4 days a significant part of that area can probably be eliminated from consideration - but right now that would not be prudent.
My best guess right now is that IF it develops as expected the most likely path is east of north from the Yucatan channel - that is based on the synoptics and climatology. Looking at the current upper-air pattern there is no solid support for anything more specific than that which I can find - but I don't do this for a living, I'm a hobbyist......
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:39 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Excellent post Genesis. Thank You! We will keep a close eye out.. I wonder when it will start moving?
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:46 AM |
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Models and TD24
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Great explanation, and thanks.
Part of the reason in the further westward track is that the TD is drifting toward the West.
See the "XTRAP" line on the SWFMD plots. XTRAP is the direction of storm movement over ' x ' time frame.
One of the above posts explained the other question. In regards to the "Right Turn, Clyde". A cool front has passed throught the Lower Mississippi Valley and is currently along a Mobile-Panama City-Jacksonville Line. As this front pushes south, it should or could act as the 'deflector' for any low level tropical system.
Low level being a TD or TS. Anything above TS status has a tend to overrun a weak cool front.
Further explanation is probably better left to one of the METs.
As they deal with this daily and I am not qualified to make that call.
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:47 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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There seems to be a pretty large blow up of color on the recent Water Vapor. Is Is that where the "center of circulation" is. Thanks
Christine
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:54 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:55 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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can you share your thought behind that? Thanks!
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 01:57 AM |
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Bear Watch
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Quote:
IMHO anyone from the Keys to roughly NO needs to be paying attention to this thing right now - that's obviously a HUGE swath of real estate, but looking in on this system at least daily right now would not be a bad idea. In the next 3-4 days a significant part of that area can probably be eliminated from consideration - but right now that would not be prudent.
My best guess right now is that IF it develops as expected the most likely path is east of north from the Yucatan channel - that is based on the synoptics and climatology. Looking at the current upper-air pattern there is no solid support for anything more specific than that which I can find - but I don't do this for a living, I'm a hobbyist......
I'm with you on the area of concern and I'm a hobbyist.
If you live along the Gulf Coast, from New Orleans to Key West, and up the Eastern FL Coast to Jacksonville.
Please keep a close eye on this one.
Charley-like behavior is not out of the question. Proximity to land, possible tracks and cool fronts all throw the models off to some degree.
If you aren't sure about your "Hurricane Kit" and it's contents. Give them a check in the next 24 hours.
Hopefully No One will need a kit. But just in case.
After being here through all of the 2004 season. And seeing and hearing what people went through.
I thought my kit was okay prior to Katrina. I had No Clue..believe me.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 02:03 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Good points...can I just add something?
I'd be real weary of biting onto any left adjustment (not that you are of course). The reason why she's shifted in the models (in my opinion) is because Pre-Wilma is a weak entity. She's very susceptible to slight perturbations in successive runs, regarding the nearer term.. Sparing the physics to describe, which will just give us all unnecessary headaches...it's sometimes tough to rap our minds around the concept that t-cyclones behave like a log floating in a river.. The heavier the log, the longer it takes to change the direction of its drift/momentum..
Although path of least resistance is always taken by these systems, if more momentum is stored and providing the counter current isn't too overwhelming (causing shear and such), they do need time to respond. That is why a strong hurricane (a heavier log), will often slow down or even stall completely before resuming a new heading; i.e, while their momentum in a given vector is exhausted. Pre-Wilma is a twig with virtually no momentum - only needed a slight variance in the ridge strength anticipation and she's summarily shunting west, and if those influences were already verifying, she'd certainly verify that way. (we are still talking about the prognostication)
However, in the long run she'll be stronger and the righter course is preferred. I'm fairly confident once she's established herself in truer form, the models will re-establish a righter course....probably sooner once they latch onto a her as a stemwinder. And, a lot of that is timing because the westerlies will be in the beginning stages of change right about the time she gets a social security number from the weather gods.
The fact that the runs are unanimously shifted left may be a bit disconcerting for NNE track enthusiasts.
However, I looked at it...we're talking all of a paltry 3-5dm so it is natural that a weaker gyre would be prone to wobble in track guidance accordingly to such small ridge tweaks... My personal experience in watching these things, if she bombs overnight and has a really strong vertical profile, she'll thumb those ridge ripplets in the model runs thereafter, and their track guidance will easily shift back right; notwithstanding that the climatalogical course for all hurricanes tend to have a right bias given enough time; notwithstanding the synoptics slated to evolve. (not saying she'll bomb of course). The upshot here is that the changes in the westerlies that are expected to impact the area with an opportunity to move her N and NNE, will also effectively disallow too too much left motion...
I was surprised that she did not really take off today... She's got very impressive U/A mechanics working in her favor and copious upper oceanic heat content to feast on... The reason after deeper eval is that she's got most of her convection in her outer bands and these are not allowing convergence to maximize coriolis driven angular momentum to her core; as the convective ingest only spirals a small distance before ascending... That is actually important because some of the ingest by the cyclone is actually being pulled from all directions, which is a disruption to centricity.. (Don't bother; it's not readily observable by sat. I've deduced this from the 5pm discussion and what I've learned in college). But, I have noticed a small but intense sub- -70C cloud top region very near the perceived axis of rotation so we may actually be on the threshold of an implosion - so to speak...
Correction: the perceived axis of rotation appears to be NE of where the current impressive, albeit small area of very intense convection is occurring; should this persist inside the large circumvellate, I suspect if possible we could have a center refix...
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 02:06 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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Interesting Climatology Image from weatherunderground.
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200524_climo.gif
I have seen a couple of maps now suggesting that Florida would be the Climatologically favored target.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 02:28 AM |
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|
confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps
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how can these two sources have such different data?
The Navy
NOAA
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 02:31 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 02:33 AM |
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Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps
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Quote:
how can these two sources have such different data?
The Navy
NOAA
Hm, there's only one area that looks bad to me and that is that dark region in the central gulf that you find on The Navy
Other than that, I think there is a resolution issue here, where
NOAA
is a close up and is also like correcting for an error point.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 02:48 AM |
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Re: wilma on the way
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Quote:
Correction: the perceived axis of rotation appears to be NE of where the current impressive, albeit small area of very intense convection is occurring; should this persist inside the large circumvellate, I suspect if possible we could have a center refix...
Yes, the perceived axis of rotation does appear to be northeast of the convective blob and this is not the first time today. I have already seen it go through this cycle once today over approx. 18 hours and it now appears to be repeating the cycle. I have been following it on the map that Storm Hunter posted earlier today.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif
I put the center at n17.5 w79.0. Check the point of convection at 0145z. What happens next, if the cycle is repeated, this bubbles up for three or four hours then swiftly moves to the southwest (where the current blob is now) and quickly disperses. It's as if the initial convection from the center gets to a certain level then gets sheared from the northeast.
These are just my observations for what it's worth.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 02:48 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*
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This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 02:50 AM |
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Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps
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Tip, that blacl dot is the Loop Current which NOAA all but ignores.
But how about the huge divergence for the coastline?
The Navy has it very warm and NOAA has it very cool,
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 02:52 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 24 Forms in Western Caribbean
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I just think that there no way that this storm is going to make it that far out west in the gulf if there suppose to be a trough coming by and picking this system up and taking it to the north east. But for some reason you just never know what going to happend.
| abyrd |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 03:02 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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Ralph,
Not that it means anything, but the 18z GFS shows Wilma crossing Central Florida from the west in 8 days. Of course, the chance of error at 8 days is HUGE, but Florida is not out of the clear. I don't think anyone in the gulf is in the clear.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 03:15 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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don't thik i sounded the all clear at least i don't see those words.I said the trends are to the west if that keeps up maybe it will cross alot of the coast of the yucan and as has been said if its a cat 3 cane no little front is going to move it.
This thread should be called the speculation thead since other then looking ast the models which are trending west other then that its speculation for the next 72 hrs or so enjoy.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 03:22 AM |
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Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps
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Quote:
Tip, that blacl dot is the Loop Current which NOAA all but ignores.
But how about the huge divergence for the coastline?
The Navy has it very warm and NOAA has it very cool,
Oh, I see the issue... It depends on your point of view but I suggest they are peering at the same actual temperature. What is distracting, perhaps only appearing erroneous is that the coloring is set to different temperature scales per respective source. For example, the cut off between the cyan color and the blue (NOAA) is around 50kj/cm^2, where as the cut off between cyan and blue on the Navy site is down around 10. That is why the near shore water temps are much cooler in appearance on the NOAA site.
Any thoughts?
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 03:27 AM |
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Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps
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true.
and measuring in Cal vs Joule. not equal?
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 03:29 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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Quote:Quote:
I have look at all the observations and must say by tomorrow we will have Wilma, and that the West Coast of FLA will be impacted by a significant hurricane. As I stated last night SST's along her path will be above normal, around 86 degrees or higher. No one wants to say it, but I believe that a CAT 4 is not out of the question.
there and NONE at this time not any models that show the west coast of Florida.I don't dispute you on the cat 4 that could happen but what are you useing that the NHC is not?
Hi, actually, NHC points out on their site that those charts are "Experimental"....But, you are right that they've shifted W. I wrote something extensive about this subject matter. If you like, read it and then tell me what your opinion is; I'd be interested in hearing it. Also, as far as that "cone" goes - wow, it's a biggy ay? I suggest bigger than usual, and perhaps an homage to their own uncertainty. Lastly, it does bring the threat of tropical storm force winds upon the Pennisula so they certainly are not out of the woods.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 03:30 AM |
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Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps
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...And, that was dumb on my part: I shouldn't have said "temperature", I should have said "heat content"; must remember to conserve my units
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 03:35 AM |
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Re: confusing Hurricane Heat Potential maps
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Quote:
true.
and measuring in Cal vs Joule. not equal?
Also, they are not equal - to answer your question..
Joule to cal conversion -> (Joule) * .23006
This would definitely skew those plots...
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 03:51 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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My advice to everyone. Have a plan and have it early. Once this thing (if it gets into the Gulf) gets into the Gulf and they have
a better handle on it look at that cone of error and if you are in it figure out where you will go if the storm
is headed for your area. Make reservations then if you need to. You can always cancel if the storm
heads somewhere else. One word of advise--if you make them
on-line double check with the hotel. This is what I did and so I had my reservation when I reached my destination. But I had
friends who made them online and then when they got to the hotel the rooms had been given to someone else. They did not call
the hotel direct. Make sure you check with the hotel to see if you have a reservation before you head out. Plan to be gone at least
a week. We were gone 10 days but some here were gone over 2 weeks. If you don't have to evacuate, get everything done early to
shelter in place. Stock up on LOTS of water and canned goods. And if you leave take water, food, and flashlights. And don't leave
your pets. We had pets running loose looking for food here (with all of the fences down). If you do
have to evacuate leave at an "off" time if you can. We left at 3:30 a.m. the Friday morning before Rita hit.
Anyway, those are my tips.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 04:01 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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Quote:
Interesting Climatology Image from weatherunderground.
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200524_climo.gif
I have seen a couple of maps now suggesting that Florida would be the Climatologically favored target.
No way this thing is coming to Florida. I refuse to even consider the possibility.
THe weather is getting so absolutely gorgeous the past few days that it is simply
unthinkable that a storm would dare cast a shadow on the Sunshine state.
Seriously, I know it can happen and I'm keeping an eye out like everyone else.
I am just not in hurricane mode anymore. Enough is enough.
Go away Wilma.......who ever heard of a cane named Wilma anyway.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 04:23 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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Models are not gospel either. They are interpretations of what could possibly be. So in reality they are speculation also, albeit with some accuracy. So everyone keep there cool, its all speculation to a certain extent.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 04:57 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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Hmm models trending west does not mean that they will not trend east again once this develops. Low intensity systems such as waves and depressions and for the most part tropical storms usually move westward until they develop into more intense hurricanes, then they tend to move more polar. While I have over simplified this, with ridges, troughs etc also playing their role, its not usual to see what is occuring happening. The storm hasnt picked up much steam as earlier models thought, and have corrected themselves with each model run. Does that mean that this wont be picked up by a trough and moved to the north and east ? Sure it does not.
I think I can say is that I appreciate everyone's responses, those who go out on a limb and 'speculate". Its important to think out of the box and noone should be put down for doing so. What is important is the sharing of ideas and thoughts, in a constructive manner. The moderators do a great job and the meteorologists point out when we they think we are off base.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 05:06 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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One other note, the latests 101700Z CMC Model does show a hit up the I4 Corridor (as horrible of a peformer as it has been) and the GFS hints at a NE Turn, as does the UK MET..
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 05:22 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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well from what i can tell 00 CMC, still going with a tampa landfall, late in the weekend....
and if this is the 00z GFS ..... it's now going into yucatan, then into BOC ...then a loop back to the east and out towards cuba and ne
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 05:39 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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Quote:
One other note, the latests 101700Z CMC Model does show a hit up the I4 Corridor (as horrible of a peformer as it has been) and the GFS hints at a NE Turn, as does the UK MET..
Ok now that you are posting some facts and just not off the top of your head the cmc yes it shows tampa but as said if 1 other model showed that i would even look at it.#2 the GFS does not take it into florida it takes it east way down the road under Florida and #3 i have no clue what ukmet you are looking at but that run you posted it has it going to south america with no turn at all.
So 1 model which NHC does not even use has it going to tampa ill sleep ok if that is the only model showing a I4 area hit.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 05:45 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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hmm..... models appear to move more west.....
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 06:05 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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They appear to be moving west, but also appear to be keep it moving at a snails pace. Models usually have difficulties with a developing storm. So we shall see if and when this thing intensifies, what the models will do. This storm isnt moving to fast at this point. Its anyone guess at this point. Just watching and waiting, but my gut tells me this one should be interesting at least to observe.
Just finishing up the reconstruction of my house thanks to Charlie last year. Roof done, drywall work done, new wood floors, and hurricane windows... Screening to go on my newly expanded and roofed back patio this week. Last one was sucked up by a small tornado off Lake Toho last year, and I am sure Dorothy and the Tin Man are enjoying it somewhere in Oz, because it remnants still have not been found.
I hope everyone is enjoying the nice dry weather and cooler temperatures. Wish it was here to stay, but this weather system at most will drive the humidity, temperatures and rain chances back up to summer time temperatures, hopefully for the last time this year.
As far as the 00Z GFS goes, it does turn the storm across the pennisula later in its Forecast, but it is so far out, (more than a week) that its highly suspect. Once the intensity moves on up, then I will pay more attention to what the models are saying. This is a developing system and models cannot be believed until it gets stronger.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 06:09 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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The models will continue to change from run to run....been more w latly,,,for the near term,,expect a path towards the Yucitan and possibly coming onshore on Friday. After that it is speculation,,,,it eventually has to turn N and NE but it could just go right into Mex Yucitan and just stay south and west into the BOC. Currently I favor a track right now inline with the GFDL and the NOGAPS and bring it ashore near the end of the week. After that ,, again we have to see whats coming or not coming into the N Gulf states,,if nothing then it should just continue w towards Tampico next week or of course head up along any trough or weakness to its N. For Florida.....there is alot more time then we all thought 2 days ago.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 06:12 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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Excerpts from early morning Area Fcst Discussions from FL NWS Offices.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
140 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 edited~danielw
.LONG TERM...THU THRU SUN...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS UNCERTAIN SINCE MUCH DEPENDS ON THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF T.D. #24.
THE 00Z GFS RUN HAS FLOPPED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS...NOW ADVERTISING THE STORM WILL LINGER NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND THE CURRENT NHC/HPC TRACK GUIDANCE ADVERTISE THE CYCLONE BEING PICKED UP BY A MID LEVEL TROUGH FRI AND MOVING NE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THIS WEEKEND. THERE REMAINS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
145 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2005
....LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
ON THURSDAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP CLOSE TABS ON THE TROPICAL SYSTEM (SOON-TO-BE NAMED TS WILMA) IN THE WRN CARRIBEAN AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST BY THIS WEEKEND.
NOTE: THE 00Z GFS TAKES THE SYSTEM WWD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH MUCH LOWER POPS OVER OUR CWFA.
THE UPSHOT IS NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FCST...
These are excerpts from the current AFDs in FL. Please use Official NHC products for current storm information and planning purposes.~danielw
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 06:19 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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Actually the New UK Met does not have it going into South America, but into the Bay of Campeche, off the Mexican Coast line, or just north of Central America. South America, is much further south, just south of Panama. If you are looking at the map, South America is that big land mass just south of 10 degrees. Maybe SKEETOBITE can label the continents for you to make it easier.
The OOZ GFS does have it going across the peninsula and reforming east of Florida, but as you stated its so far out that its purely conjecture at this point.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 06:27 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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well i may have missed a land mass since its late but my eyes still can see left or right and that ukmet does not have it going right < thats right > thats left. so why the post before saying it was? just something off the top of your head?
Owell bedtime hope to wake up to a good story for everyone and ill be sure to check out that ukmet 06 run and see if it has it going to florida on that run.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 06:50 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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nothing is going to florida for many days,,,,there is nothing to push it there for almost 5 days.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 10:21 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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Quote:
nothing is going to florida for many days,,,,there is nothing to push it there for almost 5 days.
Hmm... the models are very suspect right now, having changed their tune completely in the last couple of days. However, the current model tracks make the current NHC forecast look ... well, crazy. If the models stick with a Yucatan/BOC solution in the next run, the NHC will probably change their forecast significantly too, one would think.
Having said that... Wilma could still impact Florida after a Yucatan landfall, depending upon the location of the trough. It's very common in October for hurricanes to hit Florida while moving NNE/NE.
| SMOKE |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 10:44 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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/SARCASM
It's par the course .... FL has been out of soundbite reel for too long.
/END SARCASM
The model agreement for the Yucatan/BoC is good. Intensity and organization prior to landfall will be interesting.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 11:03 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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Quote:
/SARCASM
It's par the course .... FL has been out of soundbite reel for too long.
/END SARCASM
The model agreement for the Yucatan/BoC is good. Intensity and organization prior to landfall will be interesting.
I was thinking that since Rita hit Texas, Louisiana had fallen out of the soundbite.
In all seriousness, I think the media are over-dramatizing Wilma. Unless and until it gets moving, we don't know where it's going to go longer-term - which gives people time to watch and prepare... both Wilma and the surrounding environment. The next model runs will be interesting to see.
| SMOKE |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 11:23 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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RECON update:
18Z FIX.
1 alpha pattern with 3 fixes requested. Hopefully we can define the circulation and surrounding winds.
True words on the media hype. We'll see. I'd believe the public has been beaten up enough this year. I know I'm saturated.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Oct 17 2005 11:40 AM |
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Re: Bear Watch
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So, TD24 finally blossoms into Tropical Storm Wilma. It's taken what seems like an age since the NHC classified her as a TD and for a while it looked like she was stagnating. I've seen the model runs like everyone else and it appears to me now that the only thing that's predictable about a tropical system is it's unpredictability. NHC now has it moving over the Yucatan and into the GOM but, who knows really, Wilma may decide to take a turn to the west and move over central America into the Pacific. We'll have to give her more time before she truly makes her intentions known.
Just my slant on things.