MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:18 AM |
Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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7:55 PM Tuesday Update
Wilma's small core is spinning up rapidly, as we've seen with several storms this year. The pressure has fallen about 30mb from this morning--but 16mb in the last few hours. Currently at 954 and still plunging.. the winds should match it near category 3 status before daybreak. Strong possibility that Wilma will reach category 4 status tomorrow. Good news is that Wilma will be likely start encountering eyewall replacement cycles, and be vulnerable to shear and subsidence based on the storm profile. -HF
12:30PM Tuesday Update
Wilma is now the season's 12th hurricane, tying the record for most in a season with 1969.
Original Update
Wilma is now a Strong Tropical storm, nearly forming into the season's 12th hurricane. It will likely do so this morning.
A tropical storm warning is up for Honduras and the Cayman islands, and Hurricane watch is up in the Caymans as well.
Wilma has moved south and west over the day yesterday, and has now stopped moving entirely. Although I dislike using models on storms that are not moving mainly because of what occured in this area with Hurricane Mitch in 1998 , most suggest the storm to move north and west, and eventually make a sharp hook back to the east.
The far end now places Florida in the cone of uncertainty, and the current forecast track has landfall in southwest Florida as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane.
There is what I would call very little confidence in the current late track, and will likely change. Folks in the cone of uncertainty will need to watch this. Until Wilma makes a definitive move somewhere it's impossible to speculate on exactly where the storm may make landfall.
Wilma should increase into a major hurricane, it is forecast to do so, but at this time it looks like when the system is forecast to arrive in the gulf, shear conditions will pick up a great deal. This should weaken Wilma back to below major hurricane status. However this is still a hurricane and can cause big problems for those in the path.
It seems that the most prudent thing to do is Watch wimla for a definitive movement and prepare appropriately if needed.
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com Click here for full size image
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.
Event Related Links
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar
Emergency Management/County info
Various Florida County Emergency Management Websites
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Wilma
Animated model plot of Wilma
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:36 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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(copied from last thread)
I'm sorry everyone. This is entirely my fault. You see, this past weekend, I decided to try out for a local soccer team after not having played for the past several years. We have a game lined up for this weekend.
Yup, all my fault here. I should just wash my car to seal the deal. Then again, I could board up today and cause the storm to inexplicably steer away...
decisions, decisions...
Seems the usual round of "should I" has already started in earnest, and that's not necessarily a bad thing. It's better to ponder now than to ignore this storm until it's closer. For now, nobody in the peninsula is necessarily safe. As the tracks get better input and the guidance is more decisive, then we'll be able to make recommendations.
As for the "stay for Cat 3 and under", that really ought to have been qualified a little better:
If you are not in a flood prone area AND you are not in a mobile home AND you are not in an early pre-fab (newer pre-fab buildings are actually very strong), AND you are more than 10-15 feet above sea level AND you are not on the coast, THEN you should be able to ride this out at Cat 3 or lower. Don't rely on neighbors who have ridden storms out before to make your decision - use storm surge maps, SLOSH models, and every other piece of data you can find. Make an informed decision and please stock up your hurricane supplies if they are diminished.
If you're going to evacuate, make your reservations early (and confirm them), and try to not run screaming from the building (as it tends to scare small children
).I think for the sake of levity, someone should break out Dave Barry's Hurricane preparedness article.
Dave Barry's 2001 Hurricane Preparedness Guide
If you get a registration request, a site like BugMeNot will save you some time.
| Birdie |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:55 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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Quote:
(copied from last thread)
I'm sorry everyone. This is entirely my fault. You see, this past weekend, I decided to try out for a local soccer team after not having played for the past several years. We have a game lined up for this weekend.
Yup, all my fault here. I should just wash my car to seal the deal. Then again, I could board up today and cause the storm to inexplicably steer away...
decisions, decisions...
I'm afraid that I need to take part of the blame too! This weekend I put the kids' trampoline back up. Hubby even pointed out to me that do so was nothing more than an invitation.
~Laura
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:06 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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Quote:
I'm afraid that I need to take part of the blame too! This weekend I put the kids' trampoline back up. Hubby even pointed out to me that do so was nothing more than an invitation.
~Laura
What were y'all THINKING?!?!? You plan outdoor activities in Florida for DECEMBER, when hurricane season is (officially) past!
Good news I suppose - the 8am intermediate advisory is out. Pressure is estimated to be down to 980, but winds are only 70, meaning we'll have to wait until a recon is in there probably before we have the latest hurricane of the 2005 season. I don't remember ever seeing a pressure that low on a tropical storm, but this season has been weird, and the pressures in NW Caribbean are quite low.
The northwest turn has been sooner than forecast, I think. What does this mean? Possibly nothing. CNN was spouting off about "the westerlies" this morning, saying that when a hurricane gets into the northern GOM, it turns east because of the westerlies. Tell the people of New Orleans about "the westerlies". In this case, the computer models are forecasting an east turn by Wilma, but it's because of a trough. Troughs are common this time of year, certainly, but to say that storms generally turn east in the GOM is at best stretching the truth, and closer to an outright lie, if you leave off the climatology behind it (troughs), which he did.
Of course, my head hurts so that might effect my judgement this morning.
:?:
| orlandocanewatcher |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:19 AM |
Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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tprach - my three kids also play soccer and all have games throughout the day on Saturday. My husband is already driving me crazy as he runs the league and we have about 200 kids. Do I line the fields on Thursday?? Do I e-mail everyone and just cancel??? I told him to just sit tight for now....we'll definitely know more by then....back to BJ's for more water and supplies....the kids keep eating all the snacks! LOL
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:23 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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Looking at visible sat. it sure seems to me that Wilma is further north and west than the points by NHC.
Input......?
| R2RICKSTER |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:24 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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Not liking the NHC inland coordinates for Sunday. Puts Wilma on top of my house in Delray
| Myles |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:24 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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Quote:
The northwest turn has been sooner than forecast, I think. What does this mean? Possibly nothing. CNN was spouting off about "the westerlies" this morning, saying that when a hurricane gets into the northern GOM, it turns east because of the westerlies. Tell the people of New Orleans about "the westerlies". In this case, the computer models are forecasting an east turn by Wilma, but it's because of a trough. Troughs are common this time of year, certainly, but to say that storms generally turn east in the GOM is at best stretching the truth, and closer to an outright lie, if you leave off the climatology behind it (troughs), which he did.
Of course, my head hurts so that might effect my judgement this morning.
:?:
Gotta love the media. They do it all the time, telling half-truths and whole lies. The westerlies are obviously not in the gulf all the time like you pointed out with Katrina.
However, the shift to the north and east you mentioned may just be a wobble of the center as is continues to come together. Also, since convection is continously firing up and dying off, that can give a false sense of movement. We need a longer term view to really say for sure, but if it is going to turn NE early it will be a good thing for us in Florida!
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:35 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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The pressure is down to 980, winds are at 70mph. The thing is though the wind field has expanded from 70 miles to 125 miles out with tropical storm force winds. It looks like that is where Wilma is focusing her energy right now. Eventually the winds will catch up though. I would expect to see a Hurricane at 11AM.
Hurricane Charley '04(Port Charlotte, FL)
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:37 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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Well, almost all GOM storms take a turn to the east just prior to landfall, so there's another "out" for a sweeping generalization like the media is known for.
Being further north and west would usually translate to a slower turn than depicted and a potential landfall further north (and further north on the crossing as well). Of course, that's an over-simplification, but something to sit on.
The NHC will probably take a few liberties with moving the 4th and 5th day points, but they traditionally try very hard to maintain consistency on their track. Don't expect an major change to the track unless something big happens to the models.
Also, I should have expounded upon my claiming the storm. I played soccer from the time I was 6 until I was 20 - many of those years were spent on multiple teams with simultaneous schedules (I drove my mom mad when I had 3 team's schedules that I needed supporting). My last competitive game was played about 12 years ago. Since that time, I've played many pickup/friendly games, but not with any degree of consistency. About 6 months ago I played every Friday night and after 2 months or so I moved. I had mentioned to a guy I played with that I was in the market to play again. He tried to get someone in touch with me, but that faded away until last week. I got a call from a local 1st Division men's team that was in need of my position. So my game last weekend was actually my first competitive game in a decade. It took a little to get into my groove, but I didn't do badly at all. This upcoming weekend is the last chance for me to "earn" my spot on the team before the season begins the following week. So, I figure there's 12 years of planning all hinging on my playing and playing well in less than a week - right about the time when good ol' Wilma should be soaking our already innundated fields.
Yeah - I'm going to keep taking the blame on this one because it feels right
Of course, I'm not scared of playing in a little (or lot) of rain, so bring it on!* *so long as that "lot" of rain isn't heralded by 100+mph winds
| wiley |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:39 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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Or maybe the media just read the morning NHC discussion:
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW WEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION OF WILMA DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3
DAYS...TOWARD THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THEREAFTER...
WILMA WILL BE APPROACHING THE WESTERLIES AND RECURVATURE WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS FORECAST.
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:50 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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Maybe you should play in the wind - - allow you to Bend it better - - seriously - what is the current forcast for the arrival and intensity of the "Front" that will ultimately create the East turn?? :?:
| ROB H |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:51 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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0600 GFDL and GFS models have shifted further north, GFDL now has landfall just south of Tampa Bay, and
GFS is a little south of GFDL. I am curious to see if this earlier than expected NW drift is a wobble or a trend and how this will effect the future track.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:10 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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Ok, IF this storm landfalls in my area, its my fault, I have put a new roof on, and a new aircondition unit in. Also, I live in an area where no one is prepared and are watching the gas prices fall from $3.06 per gallon down to $2.77 as of last night. There is no accounting for the amount of drawing force the drop of prices has on a potential disaster. Playing sports teases the storm, improving economic conditions enrages the storm.
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:15 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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Now that NCH has "somewhat"called for S. Fla landfall, could the track vary so much as to shift it closer to Tampa Bay? The landfall area usually does not change that dramatically does it, or are we still in the extreme early stage where anything can happen? I guess I am starting to feel a little safer now with the current track..too soon to feel that way?
Thanks,
Christine
St. Petersburg, FL
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:17 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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IMO yes it way too early to feel safe. You are very close to the thin line and still way within the "cone". You have to still watch this very closely.
I personally think the track will change today at 5 pm if not at 11 am. I am thinking it will move more northerly, so keep an eye (or two) on it.
| bobbutts |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:17 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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One thing that catches my eye is between 22/12z and 23/00z (landfall time) the gfdl has winds go from 94kt to 109kt @ 950mb
Was going on the assumption of some weakening just before landfall.
| Domino |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:20 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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This should be interesting to watch. I am flying to Miami on Saturday for a cruise leaving on Sunday. Hopefully the cone of uncertainly will prove true and miss us...damn this is going to be close!
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:23 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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Well according to the NHC guidelines we have hurricane Wilma now..not surprising based on her appearance this am...was actually thinking it was great not to have to put the plywood up this year...been a strange season.
| Hootowl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:25 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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I'm wondering the same thing about the intesity of the front/trough. I had heard earlier that it wouldn't have that big of a "push".
Check out this vis pic http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes
She's looking more like a hurricane - maybe at 11?
Do we know if recon is on the way? It sure would be nice to get more info.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:27 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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296
URNT12 KNHC 180614
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/05:56:30Z
B. 15 deg 40 min N
079 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 1278 m
D. NA kt
E. deg nm
F. 241 deg 065 kt
G. 152 deg 009 nm
H. 982 mb
I. 15 C/ 1530 m
J. 23 C/ 1521 m
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF309 0424A WILMA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 65 KT SE QUAD 05:53:30 Z
RADAR PRESENTATION POOR DUE TO ATTENUATION
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:28 AM |
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NHC Track
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Aha! So it's YOUR fault~I should have known!
Actually, I was supposed to meet my Mom in Tifton, GA on Thursday to pick up my 4-year old niece..I was going to have her for a week. Looks like that won't be happening....(is this a good or bad thing?
..) I don't want to be clogging up or be clogged up in people trying to evacuate on I-75 N, and quite frankly, I don't want the responsibility of keeping a 4-year old calm and safe in the middle of a hurricane~no matter if it's a 1, 2, 3 or whatever. Plus, my sister already said "Forget it".
I think that the most telling sign of all of this is the accuracy that the NHC has had with all of their tracks with the previous 20 storms. I can't see a major track shift at this time either. It may be a little north or a bit further south, but I'm tending to believe at this time that someone in the west coast of FL is going to get this storm.
I do have one question: is there any possibility that the forecasted shear will relax if Wilma takes her sweet time getting near us? Or is that shear pretty much set in stone? Just wondering.
BTW...great post on whether or not to stay for a Cat 3 or less. I live 40 miles +/- NE of Tampa and I have plenty of hurricane kit items left. Guppie Grouper and I pretty much live within 10 miles of each other; Skeetobite lives 'round the corner~ so I'm in good hands!
Keeping a close eye on Wilma...I'm
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:35 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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Don't forget the most important thing....do NOT focus on the LINE...look at the entire storm. Remember, Charley was supposed to hit Tampa Bay, but turned at the last minute. You are in the cone, I am in the cone. As long as you are in that "cone", you need to be paying close attention and getting prepared. If the tropical storm force winds have extended out from 70 nautical miles to 120? 125? miles, then that is a sign this storm is growing and I would expect it to continue to grow, especially if it does not interact with land as it makes its trek through the Western Caribbean and the Yucatan then into the Gulf of Mexico.
Plus, the Mayor of N.O. is telling people to prepare to evacuate at a moment's notice. That means it *probably* won't be heading that way. For their sake, I hope that's correct. For our sake, well...
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:35 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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It is not a given that Wilma will weaken in the Gulf, at least because of shear (lower SSTs may have an impact). Assuming it turns NE, it will moving in the same direction as the deep layer flow, so the only environmental shear will be due to changes in wind speed with height (speed shear). If it makes a further south landfall, the speed shear affecting the storm may not be very significant at all. Increasing southwesterly flow to the north of the system may temporarily enhance the outflow as well. Finally, an increase in forward speed may enhance the maximum winds in the right-front quadrant of the system. The best bet for weakening will be for the storm to pass near or over the Yucutan (like in the 00Z and 06Z GFS/GFDL) or near/over western Cuba (as in the official forecast). If the system becomes strong enough, eyewall-replacement cycles, which can't be forecast reliably, could also play a major role.
Generally speaking, storms coming under the influence of SW aloft from the mid-latitudes will tend to weaken, but there are factors that can cause the opposite to happen as well in some cases. I can recall both Opal and Charley rapidly intenisfying as they came under the influence of SW flow aloft. Opal weakened quite a bit before landfall, but Charley did not have time to cycle down before striking Florida. Wilma figures to be a larger system and probably less prone to rapid intensity changes if it enters the Gulf, but it is still hard to predict exactly how it would react to an environment where both the shear (inhibiting factor for intensity) and upper-level divergence (positive factor) will be at least slowly increasing.
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:43 AM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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I guess I should have known the answer to my question...Charley "was" our storm and mother nature won over the models.
Does she look to you all like she's moving a little NW now or am I seeing things.
Thanks everyone!
Christine
St. Petersburg, FL
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:44 AM |
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Joe B's Thoughts on Wilma
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In Florida, I expect a hurricane hit with sub 950 pressures and most of the coast from Cedar Key to Jacksonville to have at least hurricane-force gusts. I have a landfall 3:00-9:00 a.m. Sunday between Tampa and Key West and an exit within 25 miles of Cape Canaveral 12-15 hours later. Unlike the fist of fury that was Charley, this will be more of a large-scale brawler, much like Isabel. Also unlike Charley, which underachieved and disappeared farther north, this is likely to help produce plenty of wind and rain farther north.
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:47 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Quote:
I do have one question: is there any possibility that the forecasted shear will relax if Wilma takes her sweet time getting near us? Or is that shear pretty much set in stone?
Because the digging trough is what will eventually turn Wilma to the NE, it will not be able to escape the SW shear ahead of the trough. In October, it is common for intense hurricanes in the western Caribbean to weaken ahead of troughs as they turn northeast in the GOM. Granted, this weakening may not be drastic, but it should keep landfall intensity at Cat 2--and less likely a low-end 3--regardless of how intense Wilma becomes in the Caribbean. This is what happened in the October 1921 hurricane that struck Tampa: http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1921/6/track.gif. Looks like this system will come in farther south because of its current slow movement.
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:53 AM |
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Re: Joe B's Thoughts on Wilma
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Is Joe B the voice of doom or what. He sounds like he is predicting Armigedon.
MaryAnn
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:03 AM |
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Re: Joe B's Thoughts on Wilma
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Quote:
Is Joe B the voice of doom or what. He sounds like he is predicting Armigedon.
MaryAnn
That Joe B's style. Not totally unreasonable, it's better to be prepared for the worst and hope for the best than the other way around.
| KiminCanada |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:05 AM |
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Re: Joe B's Thoughts on Wilma
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HI everyone, I have come in search of info if I may. I am planning on flying into Orlando on Oct 26th....
by what you have seen so far with Wilma do you think this might be a problem?
I have been lurking on this site since last year when we narrowly missed Ivan and got out of Orlando
just before Jean hit. I have to say you are all very knowledgable and I enjoy reading your posts.
Thanks
Kim
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:05 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Those who are concerned that the NHC has a line drawn over their house, Do not take that line into consideration. It will change.. However, whats important right now is the cone. Sometimes I think NHC shouldnt use a line and should just use the cone so people become less focused on a single line (though they will draw their own little line in their heads.).
As far as if the margin of error is enough to have land fall in Naples vs Tampa, thats well within the margin of error and at this point their could be shifts north or south. While I would rather see a Mitch then a Charlie (from a track standpoint) I doubt that will happen in this case. In any case, the scenario is not looking very good. The good news and bad news is it is forecasted to be a quick moving storm when it moves across the penninsula.
Guess we will be watching this for a few more days.. and waiting.
| ZooKeeper |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:10 AM |
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Re: NHC Track
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While I don't wish any ill on anyone in south Florida, for myself, I'm praying that Wilma stays south of Tampa. The old-timers in the Cedar Key area are concerned with this storm. They've been reading signs that if this one goes above Tampa it could be pulled straight into the mouth of the Suwannee and down the River. They seem to be thinking that they're due. Something about the current patterns and because our area has cooled down too early this year (we're already in the high 50's at night). I desperately hope that they're wrong. Maybe this storm is all my fault and I'm a magnet. I just moved to this location, I live less than 30 miles from Cedar Key, in a mobile home, on stilts and a half mile from the Suwannee. After the last two years of this ten year cycle? What in the world was I thinking?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:11 AM |
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Re: Joe B's Thoughts on Wilma
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I have no idea if Joe B. is saying this will be better or worse than Charley. And I forget what the heck or where the heck Isabel did and where she was when she did whatever it is what Joe B. said she did.
Any help here?
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:18 AM |
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Re: Joe B's Thoughts on Wilma
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Hurricane Isabel, having weakened from an impressive cat 5, hit North Carolina as a sizable category 2 on September 18, 2003.
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2003/images/isabell/Isabel_18Sept03_Terra_gray_1_strip.jpg
The 06z gfdl was nice, taking the eyewall between Sarasota and Ft. Myers, as per Hank’s area of concern, and carrying strong winds far inland.
I discourage any analogue to Charley, which will invariably come up, if it has not already. If anything, I would expect a much larger event in scope, if more moderated in intensity.
If you look back at the early half of the 20th century you will see a slew of mighty west coast hurricanes. Lo and behold, nearly all of them are October storms that made landfall about this week!
Actually… 61 years ago on this day saw the arrival of the Havana Florida hurricane, which, after passing over western Cuba, accelerated northward making landfall between Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
Incredibly, the cyclones eye was reported to be nearly seventy miles in diameter as it trudged across the peninsula, exiting into the Atlantic around Jacksonville. Just as interesting was the fact that the highest storm surge (12 feet) was actually on the Atlantic side of things. Such was the storms size that it caused extensive damage to nearly every part of the state.
I was hoping to find a windfield analysis… as I want to see this bizarre storm myself.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:19 AM |
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Flying into Orlando
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I hope this helps: at this time, there is no way to tell you whether or not it will be a problem to fly into Orlando on the 26th, because we don't know for sure where landfall will be, when it will be and how large Wilma will be. Landfall is now predicted to be somewhere between Saturday night and Monday, depending on exactly where she goes. If she is a large storm, it is likely she will affect more areas than if she was a smaller storm. From all that I am seeing, she is growing larger. That means a wider area of damage. It doesn't have to be a major hurricane to do a lot of damage.
The best advice is to check with your airline (and your hotel) once the storm has passed.
Hope that helps!
Colleen
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:19 AM |
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Re: Joe B's Thoughts on Wilma
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Colleen regardless of what Joe B said or did not say it would do, one thing is for certain, he will still pat himself on the back for it.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:03 PM |
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Re: Joe B's Thoughts on Wilma
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Where'd everyone go? Did CFHC go down? Looks like the models are in good agreement now on a southwest Florida landfall. They are also saying that the shear may not have enough time to impact the intensity because it will be moving so rapidly. Which is good news and bad news...the bad news is that it could be stronger than expected at landfall...the good news is that it won't sit and spin on top of Florida for a day or two.
| MadDog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:08 PM |
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Re: Joe B's Thoughts on Wilma
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I will not rest until the GFDL shifts more in line with the others.
The site must have been down for awhile, I was unable to post myself
| D3m3NT3DVoRT3X |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:09 PM |
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Re: Joe B's Thoughts on Wilma
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yeah ur right everyone droped off .. i figure this would be bangin full of folks .. @ any rate ... i hope this one isnt the 1 for the bay area i couldnt imagine tryin to evac .. pinellas county ... would be f'n crazy hopefully it will just stay south of florida bad news for the keys tho
Edit: i no way am i sayin it will come as far north as tampabay .. i was just sayin the logitsics would be a nightmare
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:13 PM |
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Re: Joe B's Thoughts on Wilma
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Well, you've been so great at posting useful info I guess the rest of us havne't felt the need to post
Anyway...
While waiting for the 12z runs to be posted on the FSU anim site, you can still see very good convergence of the 12z runs over at http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/ - it looks like this storm is angling right through the only non-land area between Cuba and the Yucatan and will almost definately make a right hook at FL. The question is intensity. Once the storm pulls away from the Carribean and the loop current, there isn't much warm water in the gulf to sustain it. I'd expect weakening prior to landfall. The system's speed may be a major factor in how much weakening we'll see, and it has still a ways to go before it reaches full strength.
--RC
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:14 PM |
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Re: Joe B's Thoughts on Wilma
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And here I thought we in Osceola and Polk were gonna have a great season - - Oh well - - Until GFDL drops south, I won't feel real comfortable. Probably next Monday.
| KiminCanada |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:18 PM |
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Re: Flying into Orlando
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Thansk for the info.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:19 PM |
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Re: Joe B's Thoughts on Wilma
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I believe the NHC's current speed for Hurricane Wilma is on the conservative side at 7mph. I would put it at between 8mph and 12mph - 8mph if on the edge of their position of uncertainty ( 20 miles ) at both the current and last position, otherwise 12mph.
| funky |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:23 PM |
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In 34202 and getting nervous....
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i'm down here in sarasota/bradenton, fl and wilma is making me very nervous. i do live about 15 miles inland, 45 ft above sea level, with brand new construction, so i feel a bit ok about staying. only thing is flying debris -- our neighborhood had dumpsters full of debris everywhere.
going to get supplies tonight
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:25 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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I agree with you 100%. NHC should do away with the line or do the track in a way that people won't just concentrate on the black
line. I've heard people say here they didn't do a good job predicting Rita's path but they did an excellent job. You can't just concen-
trate on that black line and they can't be real accurate about eventual landfall more than one or two days out. Meteorologists really
need to emphasize the cone more.
| emackl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:25 PM |
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Re: Joe B's Thoughts on Wilma
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That's an awfully drastic change of direction Wilma has to take at the tip of Cuba. This is going to be a very long week. I'm afraid we won't know much until she does start the NE turn.
Jackie
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:26 PM |
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Re: Joe B's Thoughts on Wilma
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I have a question??
Please correct me if I am wrong. I thought that they thought the storm would move VERY slow to the West for a couple of days. Now that she seems to be picking up speed and foward movement, will that affect the track more? I thought that the more time that it took to get into the GOM it would be a more South FL track and the faster that it got into the GOM that it would be more a W. Central storm..or maybe the other way around..Any comments?
Thanks,
Christine
St. Petersburg, FL
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:33 PM |
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Re: Joe B's Thoughts on Wilma
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I believe that everything that was said about speed and intensity was speculation when it was said. The real facts have to do with current conditions in the Caribbean are subject to change at the drop of a hat. So, the best rule of thumb is to keep watching at least one up date per day. The CFHC site is full of meterologists and very knowlegeable undergraduates who can make very educated guesses without having all the data available. Prepare for the worst, expect the worst, and then relax and follow the news. This site is very good for actual updates on the main page. If you do not take the postings with a grain of salt, you will be making yourself crazy.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:39 PM |
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Re: Joe B's Thoughts on Wilma
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My guess is that the newer models which will reflect the NW motion will answer that question.
There is a weakness in the ridging now over the South Gulf coast as the movement of one part to the SW is occurring and the part over the SE is lifting out to the east. That can explain why the storm started moving as she has. But remember there is an expected reinforcement of the ridge along the Gulf coast followed by the sharp trough a couple of days later that is supposed to sweep all this out to the NE.
The reinforcing ridge is expected to keep the storm's northward progress slower .
The models will be sampling all this and the run after this one will be more definitive in my opinion.
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:40 PM |
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Re: In 34202 and getting nervous....
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You certainly don't need to worry about storm surge at 45 feet, and, if your construction is up to Miami-Dade standards, your roof's tied down and your garage door is secure for a good blow. Looks like the only weakness you have is your windows/doors unless your have hurricane glass, storm panels, or plywood. Got idea to get supplies ASAP. I'll honk the horn to you in a couple of days just in case I need to use my hotel reservations in Ocala.
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:48 PM |
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Re: In 34202 and getting nervous....
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Fort Myers NBC affiliate has finally decided to notice Wilma. From the station's website:
Computer models have come into good agreement, with last night's versions showing that Wilma will track slowly northwest today and Wednesday, turning slowly to the north on Thursday and through the Yucatan Channel on Friday.
From there, the storm heads northeast, with models ranging from Wilma crossing over the Florida Keys to landfalls near Charlotte or Sarasota counties.
Because the storm is still several days away and conditions may change, all Floridians need to be prepared for the possibility of hurricane conditions in four or five days.
As the storm progresses the forecast will be refined, but as of now it appears Wilma will be a quick-moving storm, producing 4-6 inches of rain.
The main threat from Wilma should be wind and a potential storm surge.
All Southwest Florida residents should continue to monitor this storm closely.
****
I'm glad they're talking about this early, so people here have plenty of time to make their preparations. I think the prevailing attitude here is, "What?? I thought hurricane season was over!"
| amonty |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 12:50 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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For everyone that is concerned about the black line used with the cone. Here is an interesting .pdf file about the "cone of error". It's from the Texas Governor's Division of Emergency Management. Please note it is a PDF file and can only be opened with Adobe Acrobat
www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/press/press051805.pdf
sorry link was bad should work now!
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:00 PM |
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Path
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It seems to my very untrained eye that the forecast predictions on track for Wilma have not been terribly accurate so far. The last advisory had her at 7 m.p.h. NW and expected to continue that for next 24 hours, but satellite imagery sure suggests that she has a much more westerly component than north right now. Also, the models seem to have bounced around a bit, at least in the short term. Bottom line is that this is somewhat reminiscent of Mitch and the lesson is to expect the unexpected, as the saying goes.
Would not be surprised to see the forecast path change a bunch between now and same time tomorrow so those with cruises and ball games (see above posts) obviously need to keep an eye on things but I don't know that I'd change plans much right now based on what we THINK we know so far.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:00 PM |
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Re: Joe B's Thoughts on Wilma
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Wilma definitely seems to have picked up speed, though that could just be temporary. The 12Z GFS moves it steadily towards the Yucutan until 36 hours, then slows it down and turns it north toward the Yucutan channel, brushing by Cuba in the 60-84 hour time frame. It then has an even sharper turn to the east, bringing the center just south of the Keys and the peninsula in about 108 hours.
Right now, it appears that Wilma is undergoing some shear from the west. The outflow is restricted in that part of the storm and there appear to be light westerly winds at some level blowing into the western side of the system at the moment.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:03 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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don't like the 12z cmc run right into tampa bay.Hope the rest don't follow suit.Can't remember what the cmc was before since it is not very good i did not look.
that's the canadian meteorological center model. it's a lot better for mid-latitude stuff... sometime's it's on and sometimes not. -HF
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:03 PM |
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Re: Joe B's Thoughts on Wilma
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The speed the NHC publishes is the estimated speed of motion at the time of the advisory ( correct me if I'm wrong anyone ) but they may also take into account the average speed between the last advisory and the current one. The speeds that I am quoting are those average speeds, between the last advisory position and the current advisory position i.e. say the distance from point A to point B is 68 miles. It takes the storm 6 hours to move between these two points, hence the average speed was approx. 11mph. Taking into account the NHC's level of uncertainty of any advisory position that they publish, the actual speed may be more or less than the original speed quoted. This may result in them making a conservative estimate of speed at the current position, in this case 8mph.
| SMOKE |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:23 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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Quote:
For everyone that is concerned about the black line used with the cone. Here is an interesting .pdf file about the "cone of error". It's from the Texas Governor's Division of Emergency Management. Please note it is a PDF file and can only be opened with Adobe Acrobat
www.txdps.state.tx.us/dem/press/press051805.pdf
sorry link was bad should work now!
Great point ... it is impossibly difficult to educate the masses. Director Mayfield and his predecessor made an overt effort publicly to point that out. The 'room' for error is advertised, however, it always comes back to .... 'what did you hear versus were you listening?'.
| Ormond Suzie |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:25 PM |
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Westward motion more than NW?
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I've been looking at the floater loops and trying to figure out if this is what I'm seeing? It looks as if Wilma is to the left of the forecast points, putting her recent motion more west than northwest.
Or is it just me?
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:31 PM |
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Keeping Cool and Wilma
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A few thoughts...
The storm is wobbling a little south of the NW line at the moment, not sure how long that will hold, but it should make for some more nervous jitters further north.
If it gets strong enough, I expect it to have a more difficult time turning, and some of those sharp right hand turns just won't be quite as sharp (as the storm will be strong enough to deflect the turning mechanisms), I hope everyone north of Tampa keeps an eye on the storm (which I suspect people will around here).
That being said, I suggest taking a bit of time this afternoon and next to relax and keep away from the computer and tracking these storms. After all, it's not going to change direction no matter how hard you stare at the pixels
and you quite possibly will need the rest and fresh mind in the weekend ahead.Wilma is looking better, the restricted NW quadrant is starting to build back, which tells me that either the dry air is being pushed back, or Wilma is able to absorb that blow.
Just my untrained thoughts...
-Mark
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:31 PM |
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Re: Westward motion more than NW?
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NEW GDFL has lowered to FT Myers so now none near Tamap.....Hope it stays that way.
| SMOKE |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:33 PM |
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Re: Westward motion more than NW?
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RECON will be on station soon enough to allow for a better fix and motion.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:34 PM |
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Re: Westward motion more than NW?
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So far out still 4-5 days away and new NOAA data not in yet until 00z runs,,,so model runs are nice to see now,, but to take them serious enough,, we need to wait 12hrs or more.
| Myles |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:35 PM |
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Re: Westward motion more than NW?
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Great, send it my way. Thats excactly what we need here in Ft. Myeres(Yeah right!)
But to my untrained eye it appears as though Wilma may be undergoing rapid intestification. The center is condesing, indicitive of strengthing. Also the convection is increasing around the CDO and outflow is starting to happen to the west of it. All this tells me that this thing is strengthing quickly. We'll have to see the next advisory, but I wouldnt be surprised to see a cat 2.
Just my 2 cents, hope it stays south of Ft. Myeres. Charlie was bad enough and we didnt even get the eye wall!
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:36 PM |
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Re: Westward motion more than NW?
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I'm looking at both the CMC 12Z and GFDL 06Z both coming in at or just south of Sarasota. do you have a link to the 12Z GFDL?
-Mark
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:38 PM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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Quote:
One thing that catches my eye is between 22/12z and 23/00z (landfall time) the gfdl has winds go from 94kt to 109kt @ 950mb
Was going on the assumption of some weakening just before landfall.
But that's a model.
However there is a very real concern for a very strong hurricane to form, which means even if it loses strength before landfall, as it undoubtably would, it could still be very strong (a warning NHC tried to convey about Katrina before landfall).
Following the NHC trail of breadcrumbs from this morning...
My earlier post (6:30am-ish) I observed that the 5am discussion was setting up the 11am for warning of major hurricane status. Look at the 11am disc, a lot about strengthening (Franklin cracked me up again). Now...check the forecast track points against the HHC...a straight shot right through the warmest deepest waters left in the Caribbean, and onward through the loop current. Finally a quote from Max M on CNN early this am: "If it goes through the Yucatan Channel, there won't be much to weaken it," Mayfield said. And, also, "People in the Gulf Coast are going to have to watch Wilma."
So I think we're definitely talking about a very good probability for more than Cat 3, something that could sustain enough strength to be a major hurricane at landfall. Early Thursday morning, once Wilma gets above 19.5N, is about when the fun will begin. Could be continued strengthening right into Friday, even if she clips Cuba's flat western tip. And while we've seen how storms can weaken dramatically from their peak strength in the hours before hitting the coastline (Dennis, Katrina), that isn't the kind of thing you want to bet the farm (or house) on. That is to say, it would be too late to leave in the possible eventuality that things turned out for the worst, even though it isn't that likely.
We know forecasting intensity at any specific point in the track is not possible more than a day or so out, and we know from Emily that very strong hurricanes can suddenly stutter and drop in intensity, with no explanation. However we can't count on that happening, but have to anticipate the strongest possible likely outcome.
That is the key thing. True, it's likely going to hit in the GOM somewhere, once they get in there they can't usually get out without hitting somewhere, and we won't be able to narrow it down where Wilma's going for another 48 hours. But we can see, starting today, the potential for a strong hurricane to make landfall, not a Cat 1 or 2.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:39 PM |
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Re: Westward motion more than NW?
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I find it very difficult in determining a storm's direction from the animated image plots. The differing levels of convection between sweeps can be confusing resulting in the perception that the storm's changed direction. A couple of sweeps later and it suddenly appears back on it's original track. Now, whether that's some kind of optical illusion or whether the storm took a little wobble is hard to say, so I suppose it's best to just ignore it and wait for the bigger picture to eventually pan-out.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:39 PM |
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Re: Westward motion more than NW?
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just what is now on Weather underground under the models which the gdfl is new on there from 30 mins ago.
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:44 PM |
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Re: Westward motion more than NW?
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Link to text of 12Z GFDL (scroll down to the bottom of the linked page):
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/05101817
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:47 PM |
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Re: Westward motion more than NW?
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FSU anims has the display of the 12z GFS out. That model is having the hurricane track do some very interesting gymnastics in order to keep it from making landfall anywhere...strong hook east just after passing the tip of Cuba, then a slight dip just before FL causing it to shoot just south of the Keys, then arcing back northeast as it clears FL. Weird.
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:47 PM |
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Re: NHC Track
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The thing that worries me down here in S FL is the speed increase right before landfall. From Saturday off the western tip of Cuban to almost all the way across the state of FL by Sunday? That's a big move in only 24 hours! Once she takes aim she'll be coming in hard and fast ...thus any changes to the forecast cone or path will need to be updated very quickly. I don't like when storms are predicted to make a hard turns because the timing is always so iffy, yet has such a dramatic effect on where landfall occurs. Friday is going to be a real nail biter around here.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:48 PM |
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Re: Westward motion more than NW?
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Hmm well at least the GFDL has dropped south 80 or so miles. But models are still moving around abit. General concensus is Florida, but where is a question that I have a feeling wont be known for a bit.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:49 PM |
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Re: Westward motion more than NW?
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The link below shows the forecast points and heading for the 12Z GFDL:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGQLM
It looks like model picks up on the increase in forward speed and more western movement that seems to be occurring right now. Interpolating between data points, the model suggests that landfall will be between 108-114 hours, with a forward speed of around 20 knots. Even though upper level SW flow will be increasing, it does not appear from the model output I have seen that the environmental shear will be very high in the Gulf until you get north of the Tampa area.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:52 PM |
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Re: Keeping Cool and Wilma
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Good points..we'll all be nuts if we watch every wobble north,east, south and west. What is finally allowing Wilma to move is the system that has finally moved into CA.
Some general points to all: I don't think that we could classify 7mph as zooming ahead. I believe that this was expected and talked about in previous discussions from the NHC. There is some dry air trying to get into the northern/western side of the system, but because the outflow is good on the eastern side, it's really not affecting it all that much. I think they are expecting it be a Cat 2 before tonight, and if it keeps intensifiying, maybe a Cat 3 before the 5am advisory. The steering currents arem
t really that impressive right now; however, we are seeing jogs to the west, jogs to the north. This may be the storm trying to get her act together and is not at all unusual. You have to look for trends, not jogs, to see things for what they really are. This year the NHC has done an excellent job with all of it's storms, and I expect no less with this one. With the weather patterns that are set up, there is no reason to expect (at this time) a major shift in the landfall area. The models are even in more agreement now than they have been since TD Wilma began her journey.
Just remember this: don't try and steer her somewhere she isn't going and you'll stay sane...and so will we. Unless she stalls out like Mitch did, and there's no reason at this time to believe she will, stay tuned and prepared if you live anywhere on the west coast of Florida. Let me rephrase that: if you live anywhere in the CONE area.
Now...wouldn't you know that the motherboard on my laptop went out today? Luckily for me, I have a desktop. This may be a good thing as I cannot sit and stare at the computer all day long.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 01:57 PM |
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Re: Westward motion more than NW?
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Intensity-wise, the 12Z GFDL bottoms the system out at around 923 mb in about 36 hours, then weakens it to 950mb as it brushes past the Yucutan in 72 hours, then keeps the intensity mostly steady in the Gulf, with some deepening back to around 947 mb before landfall.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:03 PM |
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Re: Keeping Cool and Wilma
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Actually whats moving her now is the ridge over the western gulf is weakening and moving into Mex while a ridge is building over the Hispaniola area into the SW Atlantic and Carribean,,,,,the flow around that is to the WNW... you can also see that with the cirus clouds moving now over Central Cuba and getting better defined in the NW Carribean. The system over Cal and Az wont have a good affect on her until maybe Thurs-Fri as for now she will migrate around the ridge.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:09 PM |
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Re: Westward motion more than NW?
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The latest GFDL seems to be the 6Z
There are three 12z runs up, CMC GFS, and UKMET. the effect of the WNW motion seems to be shifting the track initiall more eastward, away from Yucatan, AND further north along the Florida coast. The UK for example took the system near Yucatan south of the peninsula on earlier runs and is now is in the straight and in SW Florida south of Naples.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:27 PM |
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wilma on the move
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wilma is moving, putting the storm a little ahead of schedule. i have a very bad idea about what is going to happen based on some trends i'm seeing in the model runs. a lot of the globals are now developing a coastal low north of wilma as the storm nears and crosses florida... this being an artefact of the cut off low currently crossing the middle of the country. as this cut off low nears the east coast, it is forecast to be intercepted by and deepened by shortwave energy from the the mid latitudes, and move into a position near the great lakes by late in the weekend. pretty much all of the models are shunting wilma east of the u.s. and way out into the atlantic... except for nogaps and suggestions by the canadian, which shows wilma AS the coastal low. this would imply that the storm phases in ahead of the deepening cutoff and accelerates up the coast. hold the phone... new euro is showing this solution as well. yeah, i'm gonna chunk the gfs unphased solution... gfs gets these tropical to mid-latitude energy transfers wrong all the time. last night the models were showing a flatter mid-latitude pattern and slower system... today we've got the models showing their arrival along the eastern seaboard better timed. watch for these solutions, as they show additional trouble along the east coast as the storm blasts up the coast... a distance off hatteras but right in on cape cod and maine. this could carry a great deal of tropical moisture north for new england and the canadian maritimes... and add a second impact from the storm as a transitional system around monday-tuesday... after what looks to be a substantial hit on florida saturday-sunday.
just out of hardheadedness i'll keep the high strike window from sarasota to naples. will trim the northern edge of the overall window from crystal river.. and take the keys off (don't buy the gfs). so make that chokoloskee to crystal river, with a highest prob near the area charley hit last year. i do think this storm will be cat 2-cat 3 at landfall, and have a large envelope... i.e. swath of high winds and rains will probably encompass most of the peninsula. my dad is going to be in polk county to see family thursday-sunday... i'm keeping him appraised of the visitor on the way... and think his sunday morning flight out of orlando may not be going anywhere.
will just add this since i've got a hunch it will turn out right... pattern the gfs shows has a strong subtropical ridge building over the central atlantic during the next few days. this should actually allow westward-moving wave energy to run in brief, summer-reminiscent pattern... there is development indicated in the caribbean late in the month, so we may have another system nearing wilma's current position 10-12 days later. whether it can develop or not is tough to say at this point.. synoptically the pattern looks great, but getting enough of a wave together this time of year is a stretch. there may be a pattern-pulse type effect that causes one to appear out of nothing. i'd put money on us seeing a greek alphabet storm before the month is out.
HF 1827z18october
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:28 PM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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Some of you might find this interesting on thresholds for rapid intensification...since its been suggested by many that Wilma might be a candidate...
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2003/rapid_table1.html
I found it to be very interesting...I am looking now to see how many of these would apply. While I'm here...wonder if any of the mets would comment about these "thresholds" as they might apply to Wilma
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:29 PM |
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Re: Westward motion more than NW?
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The 00Z UKMET though is almost exactly what the 12Z UKMET is showing. So no real change there. THE CMC has moved further north, but I am not sure what to think of that. However, it hasnt done to bad with this storm as of yet, so I think it can be at least glanced at. It was the only storm for a while showing a FL hit, while the others had it going into the BOC.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:32 PM |
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Re: Keeping Cool and Wilma
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Having just gone through this with Rita this is my advice. If you are in the cone get reservations now incase you have to evacuate.
You can always cancel at a later date. I made my reservations when Rita was headed through the Keys because I knew she'd be
a Texas storm. Also, one other note. Make reservations with the hotel direct or if you make them online confim with the hotel.
I know a lot of people who made reservations online and got to their hotel and the rooms had been given to someone else because
they did not make the reservations direct with the hotel. And please, if Wilma is a 3 or higher and you can do so, LEAVE. Of course,
a lot can happen between now and then and they can't be sure what she will do more than a couple of days out but it doesn't hurt
to be prepared. Make your reservations for several days. Damage was so bad we were not allowed back into the city. Of course,
if you have relatives to go through then you don't have to worry quite as much. I know people in Florida are usually prepared for
these storms but just wanted to throw this out there.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:37 PM |
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Re: Keeping Cool and Wilma
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As a person with hotel management experience...it is VITAL that you make reservations directly with the hotel. Remember that many hotels are not owned by the chain and many are not even interfaced (especially in smaller cities/towns) to the main reservations system. Hotels routinely overbook due to cxl rates...it is a true art to actually get a "full house"
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:38 PM |
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Re: wilma on the move
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HankFrank...
So in Laymens terms you see the highest probability from Crystal River south to Sarasota/Naples?
Thanks
Christine
St. Petersburg, FL
highest prob venice to fort myers, just my reckoning. crystal river is the northernmost point of the window. chokoloskee down the coast from naples is the southernmost. don't think keys or big bend with this one... right through the middle. -HF
| sprghill |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:39 PM |
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Re: Keeping Cool and Wilma
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what are the chances of wilma comming to tampa,and when could we expect to feel the effects
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:40 PM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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Well what I'm saying is that starting in the wee hours of the morning, NHC started priming the pump (getting the word out) for potential for a major hurricane at landfall. It's just what they did with Katrina and Rita. That's a different ballpark than saying Wilma could get up to a Cat 3 while in the Caribbean.
| Kattbyrde |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:43 PM |
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Re: wilma on the move
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I understand it is way too early to pinpoint a landfall, but what is everyone's opinion on how it will cross the peninsula. Are you all thinking it's a straight east path, or more like Charley in that it will come up through the state in more of a east-north-east or north-east motion? :?:
Sorry, meant up through the state, not straight.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:44 PM |
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Re: wilma on the move
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As usual, great post. Wilma looks better every hour.
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:46 PM |
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Re: Westward motion more than NW?
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I know that the models are now shifting southward on the FL Peninsula and I am fine with that as I am in Central Florida. Since NOAA is sending the Gulfstream out on a sampling mission today and that data will be added to the models, it is likely that a more reliable output will be forthcoming tonight and into the morning so I think I will hold my judgement on where Wilma might be going until then, that is if it is okay with Ralph?!
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:46 PM |
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Re: Wilma Nears Hurricane Strength
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I agree with you there...I am trying to find information to apply to these thresholds...shear, SST's, previous intensity all are within parameters...have not calculated Max Potential, and dont know where to find the relative humidity (I would think its in the recon somewhere)...any thoughts from anyone on those last 2?
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:48 PM |
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Re: wilma on the move
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It appears likely that Wilma would take a NE or ENE track across the peninsula if in fact it heads that direction.
Looks like a plane will be in there in about an hour or so, which is good because there seems to have been a hiccup in available satellite imagery (I can't find anything that is less than 90 minutes old).
| Kattbyrde |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:50 PM |
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Re: wilma on the move
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Thanks for your input. I'm in Central Florida so a Northeast direction could have an impact.
Thanks again.
| Hootowl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:53 PM |
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Re: wilma on the move
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Remember - this has potential to be a large (diameter) system. Don't just look at the line. That cannot be stressed enough!!!
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 02:58 PM |
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Re: wilma on the move
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Frank, seems like Wilma is indeed on the move.... but virtually due West. More than a wobble. What say ye?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:02 PM |
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Re: wilma on the move
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It does look like it's going due west. Any chance this thing just plows into the Yucatan and weakens, eliminating it as a threat to SWFL?
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:03 PM |
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Re: Keeping Cool and Wilma
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Well, I'm (insert any explitive here) annoyed! Wouldn't ya know...just went to Costco on Sunday and dropped a small fortune on meat/chicken/steaks/chops and such! How long does dry ice keep in a freezer??? Anywho...SFWD is now in "increased readiness" mode...what does that translate into? I'm keepin a close eye (no pun intended) on Wilma. SFWD is not going to get caught with their pants down as they did back for Georges. They've got a great sat image of her that the last frame is only about 1/2 hr old...movie format. She's looking impressive..might be my uneducated eye but, she seems to be trying/succeeding to fill in on her NW quad. www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/wcaribvismovie.html
I don't care (just as a matter of speech) where she's going...all of FL, central on south from all the way across from the GOM to the Atlantic should be preparing, regardless of 1,2 or 3 (I'm going with some others on the 3 thinking) she's going to be big (bigger than she is now) windfield wise and she's going to knock out power and such.
HankFrank - Your making me nervous...unusual for you to make such bold statements
Not looking good for somewhere in FL or the Northeast...just what they don't need...more rain. What's with the "breadcrumb" (to quote another poster) NHC's dropping out with the intensity? What's going on that they seem to think the shear is not going to be as much of factor that they had originally anticipated?
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:06 PM |
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Re: Keeping Cool and Wilma
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OK - - starting to get concerned here in Cent FLA - - does anyone have a link to the swfwmd spaghetti plot??
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:09 PM |
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Re: Keeping Cool and Wilma
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Everyone should just be patient and wait for at least the 00z runs to come in...NOAA has a plane going out there and that data will go into the models so we can have a better definition of maybe where its going to go. It will change the models or just give us more confidence. Anyways again its 4 days away still,,,,by later Weds or Thurs,, we can pinpoint where ,, if anywhere,, landfall might happen.,.,Cedar Key- brushing south of the Keys.....we dont know yet for another day or 2. We can start making good guess after the 0Z runs tonight.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:09 PM |
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Re: wilma on the move
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Most of the recent models show a short-term movement to the W or WNW, but still indicate the system will turn into the Gulf at some point and only one of the "usual suspects" (GFDL) brings the center near the Yucutan, with the others showing recurvature further east.
Looks like they are doing some satellite manuevers with GOES-12, but some imagery should be available again this atternoon with normal operations resuming tonight:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SATS/SPBULL/MSG2902234.01.txt
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:10 PM |
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Re: wilma on the move
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She's been forecasted to move west some before heading north then making that right hand turn...I believe some of the early modeling was even calling for further into Yucatan before the hard right into Fl.
History shows the majority of storms that form there this time of year do go into Fl...a half dozen or so have gone to mexico though so it isn't far-fetched that it could happen.
Tomorrow & Thurs will give a much better idea although some would say short notice...hence the continuation of the Bear watch for the Fl west coast.
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:12 PM |
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Re: Keeping Cool and Wilma
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Wingman - Didn't know that SFWMD had the spaghetti map but here's the one from the Sun-Sentinel...I find that their particular site updates its information the fastest:
weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:13 PM |
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Re: wilma on the move
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Well..after much thought, I have decided to stay put this weekend at home. I was suppose to go to Niceville to get pictures taken and then drive home on Saturday, but I think my place is at home. Not sure where exactly she will go but, as someone mentioned earlier - depending on the size - even if she doesn't come over me, I may still get the affects.
Is there anything out there that might slow her down weaken her a bit? The waters still appear to be pretty warm out in the GOM. Just wondering.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:14 PM |
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Re: Westward motion more than NW?
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Quote:
I know that the models are now shifting southward on the FL Peninsula and I am fine with that as I am in Central Florida. Since NOAA is sending the Gulfstream out on a sampling mission today and that data will be added to the models, it is likely that a more reliable output will be forthcoming tonight and into the morning so I think I will hold my judgement on where Wilma might be going until then, that is if it is okay with Ralph?!
Not nessasary to include me in your posts when we got people on here yesterday talking and joking about how this storm is there fault etc etc etc...I really don't care anymore what anyone says is there best guess since many on here think they know more then what the models think ill just not respond anymore.
When we got people giving out forcasts as if they are the NHC its a shame as all it does is lead to panic on some peoples part.So people got there ideas and THAT IS ALL IT IS a idea and when they are wrong its ok as its not there job.Well it is the NHC'S job so you guys play ytour im a NHC Met and ill just listen to them thanks.
well, part of the forum's purpose is to allow people to discuss what's going to happen.. that can involve a little forecasting if sound meteorological reasoning is used. you don't have to like anybody's ideas, but if properly supported they are welcome on the forum. no one is forcing you to listen to them, and no amount of complaining on your part is going to change that. -HF
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:16 PM |
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Re: Keeping Cool and Wilma
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Quote:
Wingman - Didn't know that SFWMD had the spaghetti map but here's the one from the Sun-Sentinel...I find that their particular site updates its information the fastest:
weather.sun-sentinel.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html
That's wunderground. Here's the direct link:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html
Only UKMET has it going over the warmest pools of water. The 11am NHC forecast track points are pretty close to the UKMET, but it looks like there will be another change with the 5pm.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:19 PM |
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Re: Keeping Cool and Wilma
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If you read the 11am disco, they talk about the shear issue. Margie is correct...they are trying to prepare us for what I think will be a major hurricane at landfall. I can't explain it as well as they can, so that's why I'm directing you there.
Scott....almost every channel I've watched...including TWC...has pointed out that the system in CA has finally begun to move, which is *helping* with Wilma's forward movement. It may not be the only thing, but it's one of the reasons it is beginning to move.
HankFrank...your Dad will be in my neck of the woods...I live in Lakeland. If it hits south of us, it will be ugly.
[
i]dad grew up in bartow. i'm down there every so often.. and have taken note of you and some of the other forumers who call polk home, skeet and such. never have figured out which town guppie is from, though. -HF
| Kattbyrde |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:20 PM |
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Re: wilma on the move
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Thanks. I've lived in Florida all my life (No, I'm not going to tell you how long that is)
So I've been through enough hurricanes to know that you can't just look at the line and even if you do, the line changes and hurricanes seem to have a mind of their own. My husband says, especially the females!
But, back on topic, from reading everyone's comments, I am confused with the models that keep moving Wilma further south. What is it that they think will keep her more to the south, as opposed to more north, say, the Tampa area?
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:21 PM |
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Just some thought....yea right...
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well this is what ive been reading today....and im not quite comfortable with it....are there any suggestions as this is what its doing or is he just hyping it up....also...what models are the most accurate?...thansk becky
Dick Fletcher,Tampa Bay's 10 News Chief Meteorologist:
"It's cooler than it was this summer but there is still enough oceanic heat there to support a major hurricane."
The last major storm to hit Tampa was in October 1921 .Wilma is set to take almost the exact same path. Will Wilma mean the end to our lucky streak? Watt Allen says after so many years untouched eventually the luck has to run out.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:25 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Quote:
well this is what ive been reading today....and im not quite comfortable with it....are there any suggestions as this is what its doing or is he just hyping it up....also...what models are the most accurate?...thansk becky
Dick Fletcher,Tampa Bay's 10 News Chief Meteorologist:
"It's cooler than it was this summer but there is still enough oceanic heat there to support a major hurricane."
The last major storm to hit Tampa was in October 1921 .Wilma is set to take almost the exact same path. Will Wilma mean the end to our lucky streak? Watt Allen says after so many years untouched eventually the luck has to run out.
Ok where do you see that Wilma is set to take that path to Tampa? i see no models or the NHC right now pointing there so why?
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:26 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Buoy 42057 at 17.6 N, 80.8 W (NE quadrant) reported a maximum 1-minute wind speed of 49 knots last hour, with wave heights up to 18 feet. The pressure at the station as of 3 ET was 999 mb.
Just a note of caution for everyone else -- while the NDBC does have the supplemental measurements on their website for that buoy, as noted above, that isn't the case for all buoys. Generally, their wind measurements are 8-min averages for buoys and 3-min averages for coastal stations. Just a heads-up for those who may use the data at later times. --Clark
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:27 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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ralph it was on the tampa bay 10s website....
http://tampabay10.com/news/news.aspx?storyid=20077
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:28 PM |
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Re: wilma on the move
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Basically, it's a whole lot of weather info that recon gets + troughs, lows, fronts, ridges, etc., that the models put in.
I think the best thing to do is look at the "cone" and try to figure out the middle...not the line...but the middle. The next model runs will be important because I think they will finally have some concrete information to put in there.
However, with a storm as big as Wilma is...and I think it's going to get bigger....the TS force winds extend out 120 miles (60 miles on either side of the eye). That's a lot of real estate for the size of the state of Florida, that's for sure.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:29 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Also those that think more of a west movement will bring it more north in florida that is not true it will delay it coming to florida which in turn will move it more south.Its all about the timing.The longer it stays down there the more chance it has to turn NE early.
that's essentially right... a faster approach would bring the storm across florida at more of an oblique angle. slower would imply a more direct crossing at a lower latitude. either solution could spell trouble for eastern new england/canada, dependent on whether the storm is trying to phase in ahead of that upper low forecast near the great lakes. -HF
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:30 PM |
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Eye?
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I hadn't looked at the satellite images in a while, so maybe this is old news...but the last couple of visible images suggest an eye forming or becoming better defined (perhaps the latter because I think recon at one point noted the existence of ragged eye) at around 16.7/80.9. Another 2-3 images should clarify whether this is actually an eye or merely an artefact of the images.
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:31 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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As all the Met/Mods and lots of here will tell you...DON'T DEPEND TOO MUCH ON THE MODELS! While they are great for giving you a general idea, they are not exact and often change from one run to the next. NHC is the BEST source for information you need to help make any decisions. NHC has done a bang up job this crazy season and there is absolutely no reason NOT to listen to them above all else. Lots of what is posted here (myself included at times) is simply conjecture we come up with with what limited knowledge/training we have (with the exception of the METS ofcourse)
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:31 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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I don't think he said it was going to be a Tampa Bay storm, Ralph.
Read the post again.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:32 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Some models were earlier suggesting that Wilma would track towards the Tampa area, which is probably what Dick Fletcher was talking about. It is way too early to say at this time where the storm is going and Tampa certainly can't be ruled out. Tampa is well within the error cone given by NHC, so it is not accurate to say that NHC is not "pointing" there. The best that can be said now is that the current model consensus favors a track south of Tampa. Nobody on the Florida peninsula should be panicking, but nobody should be letting their guard down either. This is still 4-5 days away from landfall if it occurs, so just keep an eye on things and have a plan ready to go.
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:32 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Ralph, not to mention that the GDFL was almost directly pointed at Tampa earlier, and is only a bit further south now.
What I really want to see is some of those cool Skeetobite graphics with the wind speed, so we can see how large an area the hurricane and tropical storm force winds will be. I know its probably too early since Wilma has fully developed yet.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:43 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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the GDFL moved about 100 miles south....Now it can move back but the idea of anyone saying what part of Florida will get hit if any is pure conjecture.
| laxpimpj |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:47 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Quick question if anyone can help me out...
If the storm follows the path that is currently being predicted (ie crossing somewhere over lake okachobee) what kind of damage could be expected in Coral Gables (Miami)?
Just a college student trying to see if there is a chance of no class on monday....!
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:47 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Quote:
Ralph, not to mention that the GDFL was almost directly pointed at Tampa earlier, and is only a bit further south now.
What I really want to see is some of those cool Skeetobite graphics with the wind speed, so we can see how large an area the hurricane and tropical storm force winds will be. I know its probably too early since Wilma has fully developed yet.
Here's a link to Skeetobite spaghetti models from this site: http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=24
I still say its going so much more West than forecast earlier that we are going to see some big track changes later tonight.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:48 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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you know i totally understand that and all but basically what i was tryign to say is this is the reason why some people are getting freaked out and panicking(sp?)...i wasnt trying to get an argument started or anything was just pointing out the fact that its being said....personally if i wasnt a member of this site id be packing my sh*t and getting out of here before she got here...
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:48 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Quote:
Dick Fletcher,Tampa Bay's 10 News Chief Meteorologist:
"It's cooler than it was this summer but there is still enough oceanic heat there to support a major hurricane."
Well...where? An unqualified statement like that doesn't mean much taken out of context.
Right now there are only a few specific places with warm deep water to support heavy duty intensification, and of course other factors are involved, and if Wilma goes there (which is getting more questionable as the afternoon wears on, which I'm really sorry about seeing as how I was the one who brought the intensity issue to the forefront), then she can probably only go downhill from there, even travelling at a fast speed.
So, roughly speaking, the max intensity at landfall is going to be based on how far Wilma intensifies before leaving the area N of Cuba for points east. If she's a monster, then there'a a chance of a major hurricane at landfall on the FL peninsula. If she's a Cat 3, then probably a Cat 2 at landfall.
Also of note -- the 5am and 8am advis/disc talk about the chance for Wilma to become an "intense" hurricane. However the 11am and 2pm talk about the chance for Wilma to become a "major" hurricane, and no longer mention the word intense. Someone please decode the NHC lingo for me. What are they saying? Is this an indication that Wilma won't get as strong as they thought at 5am (it would seem so), or vice versa?
Generally the NHC will use intense and major interchangeably. With more confidence in it becoming a major hurricane now, they will explicitly use that terminology instead of intense, which is sort of an oxymoron when it comes to hurricanes anyway -- they are all intense. Just my thoughts. --Clark
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:49 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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The model movement from Tampa to near Fort Meyers and/or Sarasota is like splitting hairs. Doesnt mean anything at this point. I am anxious to see the OOZ runs with the NOAA Data.
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:51 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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I really didn't want to post this but I must. ENOUGH ALREADY. Give the mods a break and let's stay on topic in a CIVIL manner. Although I've posted this in reply to Ralph's comment, it goes for ALL those concerned. It's understandable that many of us are quite likely and quite naturally on edge with the potential for a pretty severe storm impacting somewhere in the next few days, but the diatribes really don't help the situation. If the mods want to send this to the happy hunting ground, okay by me, but I wanted to post it before things escalate any further.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:52 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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and as was said on tv that west if it does happen will delay it going north which gives the low more time to take it east so the track would be more sotuh if it delays going north and also the models do show west early now as it is.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:52 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Quote:
the GDFL moved about 100 miles south....Now it can move back but the idea of anyone saying what part of Florida will get hit if any is pure conjecture.
No sense in getting upset by things others contribute to this forum and I wonder why you are so intent on correcting others.
We are all free to post our thoughts as long as they are not too far out in left field. That to me is what makes coming to a sight like this intersting and fun.
If we were all METS, we probably wouldn't be here in the first place. Most of us can sort out fact from fiction.
If Wilma does wind up coming further North to Tampa Bay, someone will be surprised while others will say, I told you so.
I personally don't trust the models this far out in time.
| Bloodstar |
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| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:52 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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It's almost pointless to worry about what the models say at 120 hours, it's nice to know it to be prepared or be aware, but at this point, a shift of 100+ miles will not be out of the question or even unlikely over the next 24 hours. Particularly as the storm behaves in ways that change the initializations of the newer model runs. So, yes, everyone is right. the storm could go to tampa or down through Naples, it could hit the keys or panama city (both of which I think are unlikely, but you never know).
As I said earlier, it's simply a storm and it's still several days away. We will have plenty of time to freak out in the days ahead
-Mark
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 03:58 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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I agree...the mods are going to be busy enough, we don't need to give them more to worry about.
I don't see where saying that this hurricane could make landfall in Tampa is going out on a limb, Ralph. It IS in the cone of error, as is Key West. If I said, "It's going to hit N.O. ", then everyone would have a valid beef.
Please note: you can ignore any user you want simply by clicking on their screen name and hitting "ignore this user".
I'll be using it again.
| jeangfl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:02 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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I don't usually post, just read and learn, and you guys have kept me feeling very well informed this season - but this is scaring me - I'm in Ft. Myers and want to make hotel reservations - but with all of Florida "under the gun" I don't even know where to make them! Can anyone give suggestions? Thanks
pick a place that's inland.. and since you're in fort myers, definitely north. if the storm really worries you then tally or jax, but gainesville/ocala ought to suffice. if you aren't too scared then anywhere in the interior.. say along 441 or us 27 north of okeechobee. might get some bad weather, but probably not as dangerous inland as in coastal areas. -HF
| Frank P |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:06 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Another critical factor that everyone needs to understand is that IF it indeed gets to major status, especially in the 4/5 range, but still weakens as it goes inland, which some are predicting.... it can still bring with it a much greater surge than expected .... case in point, and perhaps the hurricane which might have saved my life was Ivan... it weaken to a Cat 2/3 from being a strong Cat 4 in the GOM, but brought with it a Cat 4/5 surge (life saving lessoned learned)... and Katrina, which was a powerful Cat 5 but weakened to a Cat 3/4 going inland and still brought with it a super Cat 5 surge... also the angle of the approaching storm will also play a factor in how high the surge is... as well as how big the wind field, and how long that field generates winds in excess of 75 mph.. all contribute to the destructiveness of the surge... I've got a confirmed storm surge of 31 feet in my neighborhood from Katrina.... just be warned, if it does cranks up, just because it winds might weaken somewhat as it approaches land, that doesn't mean the surge is going to be less..... and take it from someone who knows first hand... surge can cause a hell of a lot more damage, destruction and death than just straight line wind.... IF YOU ARE IN A FLOOD/SURGE ZONE GET THE HECK OUT... everyone that I've talked to that experience Katrina's surge WILL NEVER experience another one first hand... and I've talked to quite a few
Frank P, still homeless and waiting for that darn FEMA trailer....
| Kattbyrde |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:09 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Frank P., Excellent post. Good luck putting your "home" or should I say "life" back together.
| abyrd |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:10 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Orlando is where most people come.
Usually the convention Visitors Bureau will start a hot line detailing where available rooms are. The number to find out about it is 407-354-5555.
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:14 PM |
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Vortex message
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970mb, closed eye, ragged eyewall, and "very small wind center":
URNT12 KNHC 182009
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/19:54:00Z
B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 25 min W
C. 850 mb 1169 m
D. 55 kt
E. 335 deg 020 nm
F. 080 deg 075 kt
G. 348 deg 010 nm
H. 970 mb
I. 16 C/ 1526 m
J. 20 C/ 1526 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. RAGGED
M. C10
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0524A WILMA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 75 KT N QUAD 19:50:40 Z
VERY SMALL WIND CENTER
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:15 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Yes, how about Las Vegas?? Just kidding...trying to lighten it up in here for a minute! That's an extremely good question being that Wilma stands to affect quite a bit of an area. Are you making reservations because you live on the coast and are afraid of the surge? Do you live inland but are afraid your house might not be the best place to stay? I'm not sure what your reasons are but perhaps, maybe, are there any friends or relatives you could stay with if need be? That may ultimately be your best bet....you could come to my house...I have plenty of freezer goods!
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:17 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Winds still seem to be lagging the pressure... 75 knots at 850 mb corresponds to 60 kts at the surface with the usual reduction (20% reduction from 850mb, 10% reduction from 700 mb). Obviously, they may find some stronger winds as they keep sampling the storm.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:18 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Just a bit here from NWS MLB AFD this afternoon
FORECAST DEPENDANT UPON UPON TRACK/SIZE/TIMING OF TC
WILMA. TRACK SCENARIOS RANGE FROM NE MOVEMENT SIMILAR TO TC
CHARLEY OF 2004 FROM SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY TO CAPE CANVERAL/DAYTONA...TO
ENE MOVEMENT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH PENINSULA. MOVEMENT WILL BE
DICTATED FOR THE MOST PART BY APPROACH OF AMPLIFYING TROUGH. IF
TROUGH IS SHARP...TC MOTION SHOULD BE MORE NE-WARD...WHILE BROADER
AMPLITUDE/LOWER LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ENE-WARD
TRACK. AT THIS TIME...MOST LIKELY SCENARIO / NHC FORECAST...IS
BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...ENTERING PENINSULA ALONG SE
COAST...PASSING NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND EXITING ALONG SOUTHEAST
COAST. ONE THING THAT IS FOR CERTAIN IS THE RAPID FORWARD MOTION
OF THE TC AS IT APPROACHES/REACHES THE STATE. THUS...DURATION OF
POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT IMPACT WOULD BE MINIMAL...SIMILAR TO TC
CHARLEY...I.E. 6 HOUR MOVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST COAST. THAT
SAID...ANY WEAKENING OF TC INTENSITY WOULD LIKELY BE COMPENSTATED
FOR BY FAST FORWARD MOTION...WITH THREAT FOR A SIGNIFICANT INLAND
AND COASTAL WIND EVENT FOR AREAS NORTH AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE
EVENTUAL TRACK. FOR NOW...HAVE INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF LAND AND MARINE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. EVENT IMPACT IS STILL 4 TO 5 DAYS AWAY...SO
MUCH CAN CHANGE...STAY TUNED.
| CoalCracker |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:19 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Jean,
Well, I live in Cape Coral, and for what it's worth, I've booked a room in Ocala about 220 miles north of here based on the official and unofficial information I've seen to date. But that's still within the current cone, and with HF progging Crystal River as his current choice for the northernmost landfall, Ocala may not be the best place to be but it's still way too early to tell. As you know the problem with Florida is there aren't too many places to go or roads to use with a storm crossing our skinny state at an angle. Sort of "darned if you do" and "danged if you don't" when you try to make plans in advance. Might not be until Thursday late afternoon before the NHC has a better handle on Wilma's track, but she'll likely be a large storm with impacts felt well away from the landfall point. Anyway, that's my three cents worth (which isn't worth much unfortunately).
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:22 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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I know...970. But I saw the comment on the small windfield, and the weak temp diff, and this is what I thought...the dry air is still an inhibiting factor. But as long as the mercury keeps dropping, then watch out for intensification and for winds to catch up to the pressure drop, if Wilma does get to the pools of warmer water, and shear is favorable. Remember dry air dogged Katrina and her winds remained quite low compared to the pressure drops, until she hit the warmer deep water.
BTW sat is back up and she's moving W.
| eulogia |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:22 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Quote:
Orlando is where most people come.
Usually the convention Visitors Bureau will start a hot line detailing where available rooms are. The number to find out about it is 407-354-5555.
Not to get off topic here, but if you are considering Orlando try to get on the Disney property. They have their own power source and sometimes when the rest of Orlando is without electricity, the Disney compound still has power.
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:24 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Quote:
I really didn't want to post this but I must. ENOUGH ALREADY. Give the mods a break and let's stay on topic in a CIVIL manner. Although I've posted this in reply to Ralph's comment, it goes for ALL those concerned. It's understandable that many of us are quite likely and quite naturally on edge with the potential for a pretty severe storm impacting somewhere in the next few days, but the diatribes really don't help the situation. If the mods want to send this to the happy hunting ground, okay by me, but I wanted to post it before things escalate any further.
THANK YOU!!!!! I don't even come here very often any more because of the drama. I miss the accurate information I get from the guys but some of the drama on here in the past few months is way too much to handle.
Back to the storm.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:24 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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An eyewall dropsonde in the NW quadrant recorded 64 knot winds at the surface and 65 knot winds at 850mb, so the usual reduction from FL winds may not be valid in this case. That would suggest 70-75 knot intensity based on the max 75 knot winds recorded at flight-level if they want to extrapolate the dropsonde wind profile to the other observations.
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:24 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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A cold front is what would be sending Wilma over Fl right? From what I'm reading at various other sources they're calling for a doozy...serious cold air in places & a big cool down for Fl...finally!
My question is with tornados...I know, can't predict those suckers...but the majority of fronts that come into Fl bring stormy weather...how will or will this react with Wilma? Will the tornado chance be higher? Just seems it will be a nasty ride no matter what Cat she comes in at.
| Katie |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:27 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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I think the tornados are always my main concern especially since I am not on the coast and that is why I am not sure if I should stay or leave. Tornados are my worst fear. I am just going ot wait till we get a little closer to see what side I might end up on.
| jeangfl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:29 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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After Charlie - entire family - kids, grandkids, dogs, cats, etc. - decided would not stay for anything above cat 2. We live close enough to the Caloosahatchee River (1/8 mile) to be impacted by storm surge under just the right conditions. The house can probably withstand more than my nerves right now. Thanks again everyone for all you do. And thanks for the Orlando numbers!
| oil trader |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:30 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Quote:
Also those that think more of a west movement will bring it more north in florida that is not true it will delay it coming to florida which in turn will move it more south.Its all about the timing.The longer it stays down there the more chance it has to turn NE early.
All models agree right now with a landfall in Florida.
Is there anything that can change the recurvature to NE and keep holding the path of the storm straight to NW or N?
Can we say that TX, LA, MS and AL are pretty safe for the moment? I mean the accurancy of the models is similar forecasting a 180 degree turn than a soft change in direction of less than 90 degree ?
| jeangfl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:32 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Thanks Native - hope your freezer has LOTS of food!
| zmdz01 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:33 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Thunderbird12,
Did you notice the minimum pressure reading (970 mb)? Isn't 970 mb indicative of a stronger hurricane?
Marcus
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:34 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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The VM ended with the words "very small wind center".
Much has been said here about the envelope size of this being greater than Charley, which of course resembled an F3 tornado as much as a Cat 4 hurricane as far as real damaging wind coverages.
Does this comment mean that the structure of this is similar?
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:39 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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970mb is indicitive of a strong Cat 1 storm. Right now Wilma is acting like a weak cat 1, but her form is continually improving. Lets watch the pressure falls becuase that's more indicitive of what the future will bring than the wind data.
As for it moving west, it's hard to know for sure if there has been any due west movement becuase we've had so few recon's on her so far, however, her latest recon is well west of the predicted NHC track. It will be interesting to see how tonight's models adjust for this difference - unfortunately I don't think the recon made it in time for the early evening models. http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:40 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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You are correct...a CAT 2 to be more precise. However, the day is still young and we have 2 more full updates to come. Check out Brad in Miami and Margies exchanges...explainations in their posts..dry air, SST's, etc.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:45 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Not always -- pressure is a good measure of intensity, but is not always directly correlated to wind speed. The environmental pressures are lower-than-normal in the NW Caribbean, making the pressure gradient between Wilma and its environment weaker/flatter, lending itself to at least somewhat lower winds. Normally, however, 970mb would be indicative of a cat 2 hurricane -- we just don't have any data to support near that sort of intensity right now, though.
Wilma's a larger storm overall than Charley, but with a similarly small inner core. Rapid fluctuations in intensity are possible both up and down as the outer core evolves; any tightening of that outer core would likely bring about both a period of enhanced intensification as well as a greater resileiency to negative effects in the Gulf due to shear. An impact similar to Charley is possible, but I do not think this storm will be strengthening up to landfall, merely holding its own. I do expect it to peak at least as a major hurricane, if not a category 4 storm, as it evolves over the next two-three days.
Landfall region from two days ago of between Cedar Key and Naples still looks okay, though I'd probably shift that further south to New Port Richey to the Keys. I do anticipate this making landfall in some part of the state of Florida and not skirting through the Fl. Straits. Wave impact, due to the intensity of the storm and its fast forward speed, could be higher than expected -- and certainly much larger than the unique scenario presented by Charley last year. Some models are calling for 18ft waves on the east side of the storm; for the populated areas along the coast, hopefully those are either not realized or felt only in the relatively unpopulated areas of the Everglades.
You'll hear a lot of comparisons between this and Charley over the coming days. Some will be valid, others will not. Separate the two and you'll probably have a good idea as to what this storm can/will do later this week into the weekend. Be wary of the hype from the news media, particularly in the Tampa region...they mean well but sometimes take it too far. That's not to say no one should be prepared, however, anywhere from the Apalachicola area all the way around the coast to Jacksonville...and then further up the coast into New England for whatever a transitioning TC might bring in a week's time.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:51 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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I have to make a correction on something I posted earlier...I said that the TS force winds extend out 120 miles from the center, and that would mean TS force winds 60 from either side.
I just watched MSNBC, FNC and a host of others who said that TS force winds extend out 240 miles from the center, meaning 120 miles on either side of the eye.
My bad...sorry for the incorrect post.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:56 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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It's too early to assess the possible tornado threat, but this particular scenario (hurricane moving NE in relatively strong SW flow) is more favorable for hurricane-spawned tornadoes than some of the previous storms this season, because the storms that would form in the outer bands would be in an environment of greater wind shear with the increasing SW flow aloft. Hurricanes don't like wind shear, but tornadoes need it to form. Even if the shear over Wilma itself isn't that strong (which is possible), the shear for the storms rotating around Wilma's circulation would be fairly strong, particularly in the NE quadrant.
There are other aspects of tornado formation which are simply impossible to predict this far in advance. If there is a huge swath of rain well ahead of the system, then the atmosphere will be more stable and less conducive for tornado formation, but if there are peaks of sun between the outer bands, that would increase the available instability. Nobody should be overly alarmed by the tornado threat right now, but it is always a potential hazard with hurricanes.
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 04:59 PM |
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5 pm disco
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Wow..possible cat 4 & shear & dry air aren't expected to have much affect on landfall intensity...hopefully others who don't frequent sites such as this are watching & preparing.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:01 PM |
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5PM Disco...
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This is the "intensity" part from the 5pm Discussion:
WILMA CONTINUES TO HAVE VERY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
CHANNELS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT AHEAD OF WILMA IS HIGH...INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR IS THE
DRY AIR MASS IN THE GULF AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF RAPID STRENGTHENING CONTINUES TO BE INDICATED BY THE
SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX. WILMA COULD BE A MAJOR HURRICANE
BY THIS TIME TOMORROW...AND REACH CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH BEFORE
ENTERING THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. AS WILMA ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD IN THE GULF...WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY...BUT AT THIS TIME DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
WEAKEN WILMA VERY QUICKLY. HOWEVER...IT IS WORTH REMEMBERING THAT
THERE IS LITTLE SKILL IN LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECASTS.
I think it's worth mentioning that what FlaMommy posted from Dick Fletcher's Tampa Bay's 10 Weather site is noted in this discussion. What's also worth mentioning is that they are not calling for any rapid weakening before landfall...sometimes what they don't say is more important than what they DO say.
No major shift in track at this time...concentrating on the southern half of Florida.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:11 PM |
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Re: 5PM Disco...
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Ok, now i'm scared...........As of right now i live pretty far north of where the forcasted landfall is, BUT, should i worry anyway? Should i pack my family up and leave? This is what sucks about these things...and the way people talk on here, there is a better chance of Wilma hitting North of Ft Myers then where the NHC says it may go, which is in between Ft. Myers and Naples. I am in Bradenton....what do i do? Prepare...hmmm, no budget for supplies other than what i have and definitely no $$$$ for generator or wood for windows. Someone on here said something about the Tampa Bay media hyping it up...that may be true, but i also think some on here really hype it up as well. What are the chances of this thing hitting my town? I am in the cone of error, but a good 120 miles or so north of the 5pm projected path. Any indications that Wilma will make that right turn? This is ridiculous....i think it's time to move the HELL out of Florida. Snow, sleet and freezing rain look pretty good right now.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:18 PM |
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Re: 5PM Disco...
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Just about to post on this myself...well, there you go. Now they mention Cat 4 for the first time. The way they map everything out in each succeeding discussion is really an art. They are not changing the track (to come up more to the west, near the tip of the Yucatan, like some of the models), and all the stuff I posted earlier applies. They think she'll take that path that goes over the warmest pools of water. Also Franklin mentioned the dry air.
Since Wilma is moving faster than this morning, she's going to reach the first pool of warm water (at about 20N) sooner than I thought - by tomorrow evening. NHC has her at a Cat 3 just before she gets there. The slightly more west track does take her to the west of some of the warmer water, but she'll still hit the main pool and also the warm water north of Cuba, if she stays on the NHC track.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:20 PM |
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Re: 5PM Disco...
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im in the same city as you and its wait and see.Im sure we will get something in the way of wind and some rain but the rain won't be much since its going to be fast but really all you can do is wait and see what happens come thursday as its only tuesday and who packs and leaves now is insane as you might move to where it goes.
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:23 PM |
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Re: 5PM Disco...
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Prepare for the worst and hope for the best. If your not on the coast then just bunker up the best you can. Make sure you have flashlights,water and some canned food. Don't forget the beer. Make sure you have a cooler. Fill it up with ice after the power goes out. Keep the ice in the freezer. That was my mistake. If you drink coffee fill a thermos up before the storm comes. That was another of my mistakes.
If you don't feel safe then goto a shelter.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:23 PM |
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Re: 5PM Disco...
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Well if I was in Manatee county definitely stay tuned to what's goiing on. My daughter is supposed to go to an outing this weekend at Zolfo Springs, just up the road from Arcadia. Wilma has looked funny all day, kinda like when Fred heads off to the Moose lodge. But now she is beginning to get her act together. If you can, check out the last visibles before we lose them to the night. She is beginning to get that formidable look, and seems to be heading wnw, but the NHC has her at 290 heading...guess they have the instruments to back that up.....looks more like 280 maybe. Cheers!!
Sorry, it was the water buffalo lodge
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:25 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:In the attached image (originally from http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/VIS/20.jpg ) does the line of clouds between Apalachicola and Cancun indicate a boundary between areas of differing pressure? Incidentally the line seems to be shifting slowly westward, particularly along more southern portions of it.
...pressure is a good measure of intensity, but is not always directly correlated to wind speed. The environmental pressures are lower-than-normal in the NW Caribbean, making the pressure gradient between Wilma and its environment weaker/flatter, lending itself to at least somewhat lower winds...
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:25 PM |
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Re: 5PM Disco...
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Let me just add a few more comments here. Obviously if a person is in the direct path of a storm, say three days out, then that person would want to make plans to evac. Evac meaning if it's a cat 3 or higher and if you are forcasted to be in or near the eyewall. Now, say you live on the outer part of the "cone of error". Common sense will tell you not to evac, three days out, because you are forcasted to only feel minor effects from the storm. Two days out, the forcasters were wrong, the thing doesn't make a big right turn and it's coming after you. Two days out, not even...how are you going to leave? Roads are juiced from the poor sob's south of you who thought they had to leave the day before....see what i am saying here folks????? If there is better than 75% chance that Wilma will NOT make the turn and hit Sarasota or Tampa or even Venice, then why have the landfall point be 150 miles south of Tampa??? Makes no sense!! Tomorrow at this time and even wed and thurs....still may not know what the heck is going on...when will there be time to evac if necessary? No time........once in the gulf Wilma is supposed to haul some butt NE. Trop Storm, Cat 1....fine, can deal with it.....cat 4 or weak cat 3.....i am outta here...but no time if the track isn't known until 24 hrs before landfall.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:32 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Anyone on here can answer this.....................
What is your opinion about the right turn Wilma is forecasted to make?
What is your opinion about the conditions in the atmosphere that are supposed to turn her to the right?
What is your landfall guess? Is it on with the NHC? Accuweather has a different idea - they are saying Ft. Myers/Port Charlotte area.
| nowhammies |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:44 PM |
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Possibly off topic, but concerned none the less
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I live in Orlando, about 5 miles north of the airport. We huddled in the bathroom of our aprtment and prayed that our windows didnt break during Charlie. The other storms were much more gracious to us
My question is this: I am 27 weeks pregnant, and really cant remmeber if all of the ideas about pregnancy and hurricanes are Old Wives tales or if I need to follow any different precautions. I am categorized as Hi risk, but not having any current issues.
I pray that we have a more gentle effect from this storm, but I am "preparing for the worst and praying for the best as I have read so many times" I just can not remember if I am supposed to do anything differently.
thanks for any help - if this is too off topic please feel free to PM me and then delete the post (or move it to where it belongs) - I will not be offended - just need to find the info
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:44 PM |
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Re: 5PM Disco...
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A perfect example of what can happen when an area is in the cone: look at all the people who got stuck in N.O., MS, AL, Houston, etc.
Need I say more?
I'm not planning on going anywhere because a) I live inland (40 miles NE of Tampa) b) there's a shelter right across the street and c) I don't want to sit in line for 18 hours with a storm going at a large rate of speed.
For those of you who *think* you might get evacuated, just go ahead and make plans to do so NOW. Don't be like a bunch of sheep waiting for your turn to come.
You know who you are... good luck.
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:50 PM |
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Re: 5PM Disco...
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The Lee County Board of Commissioners has declared a 7-day local state of emergency here.
And here is a link to a storm surge map for Lee County. Find yourself on it, and begin making your plans now.
http://www.bonitafire.org/page20.html
Or here is another one.
http://www.leepa.org/GISDepartment/StormSurge1.htm
| tpratch |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:55 PM |
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Re: 5PM Disco...
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My thoughts on evac which I posted elsewhere today (edited minorly for content since posting guidelines there are more lax):
In Florida, our Emergency Management folks don't mess around. You will be given at least 72 hours of evacuation time. If you take either I-95 or I-75, you will encounter heavier than normal traffic flow, but there will be gas the whole way (or trucks on the way to refill). The line will move, but there's a secret. If you pay attention to the NHC (or this board), you'll have plenty of time to get the jump on folks. Just do your preparation now if you're in that cone. Have things packed for a week out-of-town and ready to load if/when needed.
OR...
Wait until about 6 hours before you receive TS force winds. You'll find either interstate to be almost completely devoid of traffic and will make better time than you ever have before.
Most importantly, know what you're going to do and where you're going to go NOW. If you're hoping to get a hotel closer than Virginia, you better make your reservations NOW and make sure to confirm.
So, in short (as a former inhabitant of Bradenton who remembers the flooding from the noname storm in the early 90s): go ahead and make your arrangements, but don't leave yet. If you know a friend on the east coast of FL, or someone further north and farther inland, you arrange to stay with them in a few days. Then you wait. The E/W roads (aside from the turnpike and I-4) tend not to be so crowded. If for example, you knew someone in Indian River or Brevard Counties, you take SR 60 (I think) across the state and it'll only take you a few hours.
The major highway flooding comes with the first mandatory evac notices. If you are prepared to, and leave within the first hour or two, you'll be just fine. If you wait just a little bit, you might find yourself in the logjam. That jam moves, but not very quickly at all.
If you feel you've missed the window and want to evac to the north, simply wait a bit longer and enjoy the slightly rainy/windy drive on an almost-empty interstate.
YMMV SPSFD
| Ned |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 05:59 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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For what its worth-
Look for Wilma to take a hard rt. clearing Cuba,and stay low,Keys?
your new ned, so just letting you know.. if you're gonna post on the main board try to keep it conversational and add some reasoning. posts like this belong in the forecast lounge. just fyi. -HF
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:01 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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000
URNT12 KNHC 182158
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/21:42:20Z
B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 32 min W
C. 850 mb 1112 m
D. 55 kt
E. 34 deg 051 nm
F. 111 deg 082 kt
G. 024 deg 009 nm
H. 963 mb
I. 17 C/ 1524 m
J. 20 C/ 1526 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C7
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0524A WILMA OB 13
MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z
| nuwatcher |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:03 PM |
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Re: Possibly off topic, but concerned none the less
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nowhammies,
Suggest you contact wesh.com (Channel 2). Weather persons Amy Sweezy and Leslie Hudson (sp?) were both PG during last year's hurricanes. Bet they can help you.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:03 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Pressure down 7 mb in about 2 hours, with the eye contracting to 7 mi in diameter... looks like a rapid deepening is underway. The satellite presentation is drastically improved in the last hour or so, with deep convection becoming more symmetric around the center and a tiny eye visible on the 2115Z and 2145Z IR images.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:03 PM |
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Re: 5PM Disco...
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The eye is just starting to peek out on IR and WV.
I've gotten so used to watching the oversized hurricanes of this season...it is funny to see such a petite little core (outlined somewhat by a string of dry air that has spiraled in), surrounded by those monsterous feeder band arms.
| bobbutts |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:03 PM |
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Re: 5PM Disco...
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Here's a good surge map.
http://www.swfrpcgis.org/website/landsurge/viewer.htm
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:04 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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963? Wow. Is it just me, or is it starting to rapidly intensify?
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:12 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Well this is interesting because the temp diff has not improved beyond 3 deg. I think again that the dry air is a factor. Some of it may have worked its way into the core circulation. I wouldn't count on the winds catching up any time soon, but I wouldn't be surprised to see pressure keep dropping. I think things will shake out in a little bit, to allow steady intensification.
| MissBecky |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:13 PM |
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Re: 5PM Disco...
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Quote:
Here's a good surge map.
http://www.swfrpcgis.org/website/landsurge/viewer.htm
Ah, yes. That one is much better than the ones I found. Plus it contains Charlotte, Collier and other SW Florida counties.Thanks!
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:21 PM |
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Hmmm...
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Just heard this on Channel 11 ABC News Tampa Bay affiliate:
What will be the deciding factor of whether or not Wilma stays further south is this: there are two systems spinning out there: the one that has just entered CA and one off of the Gulf of Alaska. Dennis Philips said that *if* the two of those can get together, the more likely it will stay further south of Tampa. If they DO NOT come together, the turn will be further north. When will we know? He says by tomorrow we will see how close they are to each other.
Seems to make sense because if the two systems merge together, it will be stronger and push it further to the south. If they stay apart, there will be an opening for a further NE turn.
Make any sense to you?
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:21 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:
Anyone on here can answer this.....................
What is your opinion about the right turn Wilma is forecasted to make?
What is your opinion about the conditions in the atmosphere that are supposed to turn her to the right?
What is your landfall guess? Is it on with the NHC? Accuweather has a different idea - they are saying Ft. Myers/Port Charlotte area.
a)"What is your opinion about the right turn Wilma is forecasted to make?"
- High probability of occurrence; the trick will be, what is the degrees of the parabolic motion. 'That' will be virtually impossible to forecast because subtle nuances in both the storm structure its self and how those variants interact with the outside environment that's causing what is also the climate favored motion, cannot be deterministically modeled as they are perturbationally driven.
b)"What is your opinion about the conditions in the atmosphere that are supposed to turn her to the right?".
-The prefered synoptic reasoning at this time is that the models are in concert with what one would expect of the current state of the indices; those being the SOI and NAO. The combination of these connotes a troughing digging smartly into Ohio Valley area, and this began appearing in earnest in the models 4 days ago. The global models are coming into decent agreement about the existence of this trough; there is however some divergent solutions regarding its exact amplitude and therefore, any subsequent affects it will ultimately have on determining both the amount of right turn of Wilma, but her speed in the flow thereafter. So, a few things to iron out there, but the gyst of all is that S Fl (Accuweather or NHC both have acceptable prognosis given the data at hand) will likely have big, BIG problems. Right now the timing best fit for both experience and model output is about 4.5 days, from 12z this morning.
c)"landfall guess? Is it on with the NHC? Accuweather has a different idea - they are saying Ft. Myers/Port Charlotte area".
-As mentioned, both Accuweather and NHC have acceptable track guidance and have equal likelihood of positive result. As a clue though...I would not be surprised if the GFS solution is a bit too far S at 120 hours. The other issue I have is that there is still some uncertainty about the meridinal amplitude of the well-advertised trough slated to settle into the Ohio Valley over the next few days. That feature could still impart a steeper steering field over the SE U.S. and East Coast, which still makes it not implausible to have the more N aspects of the "Cone of uncertainty" being the correct route.
In addition, a very strong Wilma will likely produce a bit of resistence to any differentiating steering components as she's first encountering them, and this can sometimes serve to conserve a given vector somewhat longer then anticipated - not something readily foreseeable however... Curving N, NNE then NE means that any one of these directions would likely be held slightly longer given her deeper structure and better ability to perform what is often refered to as "creating her own environment". She just has absolutely AWESOME mechanics in her favor right now. This has underdone NHC intensity profile written all over it if you ask me.. Time and time again we see this...the storm out guns the marshals trying to assertain her vitality out in time, ending up being vastly more powerful. (Not sure why, but as a side note, these types of storms, where the parametrics are astoundingly good, are almost always "officially" underestimated)
Lastly, the 970mb low at core is a tad lower than the ideal pressure wind ratio. I'm sure this is because she's born in a region with lower than normal ambient sl pressure to begin with...As she smartly leaves the region and encounters high pressure to the N, she will likely begin seeing increases in her wind velocity measurements - depending on how quickly she can adjust to the new environment she's invading. It will be interesting to see this play out.
The other thing that interests me is that her best predicted track takes her over sst's that are balmy the whole way; what's ironic, its the only route left there without processed oceanic heat content from earlier season activity. That's just catastrophic bad luck for people who may be directly affected by her.
Frankly - and I hold no allegence to them - I favor Accuweather's solution over NHC. Mainly because I think the trend for a deeper trough in the Ohio Valley has not yet completed finding a resolution, and therefore, there may be additional adjustments to the predicted steering currents that re-orient them with more S component in time... The tough part about that is, were talking about stuff that hasn't shown up in the models...
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:21 PM |
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Re: 5PM Disco...
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Here is the NOAA Evac Zone tool ( I went ahead and preselected FL):
http://ekman.csc.noaa.gov/website/FEMA_EvacZ/AddressPage.htm?state=florida
I usually look at the storm surge layer rather than the evac layer. If this isn't a link on CFHC it should be; it goes down to the street address.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:24 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:
Well this is interesting because the temp diff has not improved beyond 3 deg.
Also the eye was open or ragged until this last recon. It's probably that there was a good bit of mixing going on since the eye wasn't well formed. Now that it has formed a closed eye I'd expect the temp difference to increase. Anyone know if the airforce recon is doing another pass before heading home?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:24 PM |
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Re: Possibly off topic, but concerned none the less
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I was high risk also. I would think that the best person to contact would be your doctor. He/she will tell if of any dangers you should be aware of. There are women who go into labor because of the pressure drops. It all depends on where you live. I bet the two weather people would also tell you to call your doctor because they won't want to be held responsibile if anything happens to you.
And...it was a GREAT question.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:25 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Based on the observed relationship so far between the surface winds and FL winds, the intensity is probably somewhere between 75-80 knots right now. 963 mb is absurdly low for a cat 1 hurricane, but this is probably approaching cat 2 as we speak.
7 mi is a very small eye diameter... I would expect it to either grow to a little more reasonable size at some point, or else collapse and attempt to reorganize.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:29 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:
963 mb is absurdly low for a cat 1 hurricane, but this is probably approaching cat 2 as we speak.
Yeah, under normal Atlantic conditions 963 is borderline Cat 3 - but as Clark mentioned, the western Carribean has lower-than-average pressure right now, so the pressure gradient isn't as high as 963mb would normally indicate.
--RC
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:30 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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It appears as though a small eye is becoming apparent on the 21:45 UTC Infrared:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:32 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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...and...overall, Wilma is looking more symetrical in the CDO.
| bobbutts |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:33 PM |
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Re: 5PM Disco...
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While we're at it with the maps... here's one just for Charlotte County. The spot elevations layer has surveyed elevations all over the county.
http://ccgis.com/
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:36 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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I was wondering if anyone has a link to stats on gfdl accuracy? Where did their model go in conjunction with actual landfall? Local mets keep bringing up the gfdl model and its track. Thanks in advance!
| Big Kahuna |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:37 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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I read this in the "how to" vortex message:
An eye diameter that shrinks (compared to the previous vortex message) may signal strengthening: just as a twirling ice skater spins faster as she pulls in her arms, a hurricane may "spin" faster as its eye gets smaller. Eye diameters are usually 10-20 nautical miles, while we sometimes see them as small as 5 nm to as large as 60 nm.
http://www.hurricanehunters.com/vortex.htm
Also in the lates Vortex message it stated that max winds were at 82kts so that would be just shy of a cat 2 storm
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:40 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:
963 mb is absurdly low for a cat 1 hurricane, but this is probably approaching cat 2 as we speak.
I agree. Katrina was a bit slow getting there, but at least she had the good sense to have 110mph winds when she was at 963mb. Wilma really is in the stone age when it comes to Hurricane Dos and Don'ts.
RC, I forgot about the eye being ragged before...you're right, that makes a huge difference.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:46 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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I think the combination of lower-surface pressures surrounding the storm and the flat pressure gradient inside the storm itself (which are not necessarily directly related) are causing the underwhelming wind speeds so far. Wilma seems to have a very large radius of tropical storm force winds for a cat 1 storm, indicating that the system has not really wound up like a hurricane normally does. That will likely change if it keeps deepening like this. It may always have somewhat lower winds compared to what you would expect because of the surrounding below-average pressure field, but it still has a lot of tighening up it can do.
| iuhoosiers |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:54 PM |
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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I am new to this so please excuse me if i get this wrong, but if the storm continues to move west and then make a late turn to the north wouldn't that give the cold front enough time to come down in the gulf and push the storm south of florida as it begins to move north???????
| Spoken |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:55 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:Looking at the IR, the section that's over the Caribbean currently seems to have more than one hot spot. Perhaps resulting in unusually slow wind speed for such a low pressure?
963 mb is absurdly low for a cat 1 hurricane, but this is probably approaching cat 2 as we speak.
But it looks like the Cuban land mass is about to 'lance' the largest group of those hot spots to the northeast of Wilma's center.
| crpeavley |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:56 PM |
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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Can someone confirm that the 00Z runs tonight at midnight will include the NOAA jet data?
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 06:58 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:
I think the combination of lower-surface pressures surrounding the storm and the flat pressure gradient inside the storm itself (which are not necessarily directly related) are causing the underwhelming wind speeds so far. Wilma seems to have a very large radius of tropical storm force winds for a cat 1 storm, indicating that the system has not really wound up like a hurricane normally does. That will likely change if it keeps deepening like this. It may always have somewhat lower winds compared to what you would expect because of the surrounding below-average pressure field, but it still has a lot of tighening up it can do.
Looking at the IR loop, two things are apparent to me:
1. It's rapidly intensifying.
2. It's slowing down in terms of forward motion, at least in the last hour or two.
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:03 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:
Pressure down 7 mb in about 2 hours, with the eye contracting to 7 mi in diameter... looks like a rapid deepening is underway.
SECOND HALF OF QUOTE HAS BEEN EDITED OUT BY ME.
I am just adding a fact and mean no criticism of original post.
Explosive Deepening:
A decrease in the minimum sea-level pressure of a tropical cyclone of 2.5 mb/hr for at least 12 hours or 5 mb/hr for at least six hours.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:05 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Wilma looks like it is intensifying fairly rapidly to me. However, I notice the NHC wind speed projections level the storm off after a couple of days. This is apparently due to the expected influence of the front in the latter period.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:26 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:
Wilma looks like it is intensifying fairly rapidly to me. However, I notice the NHC wind speed projections level the storm off after a couple of days. This is apparently due to the expected influence of the front in the latter period.
I just don't know... looking at Wilma right now, it appears to be moving almost due west again. Experts say that the delay in the northward jog will ultimately put the storm further south along the coast of Florida (or even in the Keys or below), but what if the currently-expected trough MISSES Wilma completely? This would cause the storm to continue moving west, or maybe WNW, into the Yucatan and ultimately the BOC, wouldn't it?
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:28 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Wilma has some of the the deepest central dense overcast I have seen in a long time. In fact, I don't think I have ever seen a storm with the grey cloud tops encompassing that much of the core.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:31 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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It looks like Wilma is moving more west than the tropical forecast points. Try this link and check off the "Tropical Forecast Points" if it is not already.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:32 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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I'm sure the objective Dvorak numbers have shot through the roof for Wilma in the last couple of hours. It easily has the satellite appearance of a major hurricane, but it may take a little while for the wind intensity to catch up, assuming it maintains this level of organization for awhile.
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:34 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Do some of the 18Z models at Colorado State seem to be edging farther North from the 12Z..hmmmm?
I know that they will change a lot, but just thought I'd post.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:35 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Guys, a jog is a jog is a jog.....I wouldn't get so excited about it.
Yes....Wilma is spinning up quite rapidly.
She has a tight eye like Mitch did - and in the same area of the Caribbean.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:38 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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000
URNT12 KNHC 182328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/23:09:50Z
B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 41 min W
C. 850 mb 1037 m
D. 45 kt
E. 178 deg 049 nm
F. 257 deg 080 kt
G. 167 deg 007 nm
H. 954 mb
I. 18 C/ 1518 m
J. 22 C/ 1524 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C8
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0524A WILMA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 101 KT N QUAD 23:12:10
VERY TIGHT WIND CENTER
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:38 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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The CDO is incredible on this storm. I too have never seen this symetry of CDO on such a weak hurricane. I note, however, the NHC guidance on wind seepd probability after a couple of days - leveling off with a very wide margin of error. The NHC guidance is at the higher end of this intensity forecast.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:40 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:
Guys, a jog is a jog is a jog.....I wouldn't get so excited about it.
Yes....Wilma is spinning up quite rapidly.
She has a tight eye like Mitch did - and in the same area of the Caribbean.
Oh, I'm not "excited" about the jog. If it extends to more than just a jog, I'll be intrigued a bit, though.
I don't remember ever looking at a WV image of Mitch, much less at its strongest period, but Wilma certainly looks stronger than 80 mph - I'd estimate closer to 105 based on the satellite.
Looking at the U.S. national water vapor loop... the trough appears to me to be oriented almost due N/S right now. How is this going to push the storm ENE or NE? The trough also looks like it will take longer to make an impact than I would have expected given the forecast. If I were in the Yucatan, I'd be a bit nervous.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:41 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Am I reading the Vortex information correctly - 954mb with Max winds at the start of 82 and 101 at the end of the recon?
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:41 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Pressure drop of 9 mb in less than 90 minutes... pretty impressive. The dropsonde into the eye measured surface winds of 13 knots, so the actual central pressure is probably slightly lower.
A dropsonde in the southern eyewall measured 82 kts at the surface right before that recon fix, which was actually slightly higher than the flight-level winds in that area. If the same relationship holds true in the northern eyewall, the max surface intensity is close to 100 knots. The flight-level winds in the northern eyewall increased from 75 knots on the inbound leg to 101 knots on the last outbound leg, in a span of about 3 hours.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:43 PM |
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Re: Vortex message *DELETED*
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Post deleted by lunkerhunter
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:44 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:
H. 954 mb
MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 101 KT N QUAD 23:12:10
VERY TIGHT WIND CENTER
GEESH this thing is going to be packing quite a punch VERY soon. I know, the pressures are overall quite low in the NW Caribbean... but one thing I always look for is an incredible pressure drop, to signify a strengthening storm. Forget the actual pressure - a drop of 16 MB in a couple of hours (I forget exactly when the last recon fix was) is incredible. We saw it with Rita, too, so it's not shocking, but it's significant. The phrase "very tight wind center" is indicative of a Dennis-like storm. It's like history is repeating itself repeatedly this season.
| swimaway19 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:44 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Official intesity posted is 100 mph w/ motion at WNW @ 8mph
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:46 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:
actually slightly higher than the flight-level winds in that area. If the same relationship holds true in the northern eyewall, the max surface intensity is close to 100 knots. The flight-level winds in the northern eyewall increased from 75 knots on the inbound leg to 101 knots on the last outbound leg, in a span of about 3 hours.
Given the current satellite signature (very impressive), it's definately on the way to Cat 3 (100 kts+) if it's not already there.
Intermediate advisory headline says it succintly:
"...Wilma undergoing rapid intensification..."
"only" up to 100mph so far, but that'll probably change by 11pm, if not before.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:47 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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pressure has dropped 16mb in a little over 3 hours.
whoops......actually it was Gilbert.
Gilbert with small eye
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:49 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Accuweather has a new post up as of 19:41 ET.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:50 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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The 7pm advisory raises the intensity to 85 knots (100 mph). Looks like they went for the by-the-book reduction of max flight-level winds, which is probably a conservative estimate. The 82 kt surface winds in the southern eyewall, which figures to be the weaker side of the system, would argue for something higher than 85 kts.
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:51 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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-16 mb in about 3 1/2 hours. Well on the way to meeting "explosive deepening" criterion.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:52 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:
pressure has dropped 16mb in a little over 3 hours.
whoops......actually it was Gilbert.
Gilbert with small eye
"The aircraft reports that the central pressure is falling rapidly... and Wilma is expected to
become a major hurricane later tonight or on Wednesday."
I've never seen the NHC say anything like that in a public advisory. They've said it in discussions before, but in a public advisory they are usually less dramatic.
I must say, if you move Wilma a bit further north, you pretty much have a satellite signature like Gilbert.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:52 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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orlandodan, what does it say on Accuweather?
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 07:55 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:
orlandodan, what does it say on Accuweather?
Here's a snippet:
Given that we have had a drop of 16 millibars in pressure during the past 2 hours suggest Wilma is undergoing rapid intensification similar to what happened with Katrina and Rita. Often it takes 2-6 hours for the winds to correspond to this drop in pressure. So, its a good bet that Wilma is a category 2 hurricane and should become a category 3 hurricane by Wednesday morning. At this rate its very possible Wilma will become a category 4 hurricane before it reaches the Yucatan Channel Thursday night.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:00 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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"At this rate", Wilma would be a category 4 storm in the next 6-12 hours. How long the storm can continue deepening at such a rate remains to be seen, though.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:04 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:
"At this rate", Wilma will be a category 4 storm in the next 6-12 hours. How long the storm can continue deepening at such a rate remains to be seen, though.
I know, Thunder... I was just reposting what Accuweather stated.
One thing we should keep in mind... several times, rapid intensification is followed by a leveling off, or even a rapid weakening trend. It's like a ballerina spinning rapidly. As she contracts, she spins faster, but when she finally topples over, she stops spinning. The analogy is not perfect of course, and it's likely that Wilma will only gradually weaken due to westerly shear once she gets into the SE GOM. Just something to watch for as we stay out of the way of yet another monster hurricane in 2005.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:08 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Well, a couple of days ago I wrote on this forum that Wilma is here to stay, and will probally strengthen to a CAT4 or possible a CAT5. After looking at all the observations, and trends of storms in the area of the CARIB, and the very warm SST's along her track, well it is only obvious what would take place. These were only my word for discussion. But I guess if you are not a MET on this site, comments that would indicate such a storm to develope, goes to the GRAVEYARD like my observations and comments 2 days ago. Well, look at how many people on this forum have commented now, over 215 for this storm. I guess I will continue to watch Wilma as she continues to grow more and more each day. We on this forum must be allowed with no fear of getting the graveyard by saying or calling things the way we happen to seee it. These are only our interpertation of what the atmosphere is doing. This is a serious storm not to take likely. Those on the West Coast as I said in my previous comment which was graveyard, to heed all the warnings now. I don't wish anything on anyone for any particular area of this great land of our. We must be free to say and comment as hobbyist's to give discussion on any storm but keeping within the boundaries as stated.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:08 PM |
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Accuweather Post
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Okay, they agree with the NHC. That's what they've been predicting since the 5am advisory. So much for a low-end cat II, huh? Sheesh.
Does Max have any hair left?
Here's what my prediction for tomorrow's activities will be:
1) Governer Bush will sign a State of Emergency so that the state and local EOC's can begin preparations and the National Guard can be put on alert. Later on, President Bush will declare Florida a Federal Disaster area.
2) Voluntary evacuations will go into effect tomorrow night and mandatory evacuations begin Thursday sometime...depending on the estimated arrival of landfall.
3) The media windfall will begin with CNN, MSNBC, FNC and gas prices will begin to rise again, so fill up your tanks tomorrow if you live ANYWHERE in Florida. Everything else going on in the world will be forgotten as Florida braces for what could be "a devastating storm" (media term) tearing up a good portion of the state of Florida. Reporters will prepare themselves to be thrown into trees, cars, windows, etc., while claiming "this is just the beginning, folks".
4) No one will watch Jim Cantore or the WC because they don't create enough panic out there.
The above scenarios are not all that unlikely, given what we are seeing tonight with Wilma. All of them make sense ...with the exception of #3, of course. I am getting very concerned with the rapid intensification of Wilma and how she will be able to grow over the next days. I surely hope that people ALL ALONG the Florida peninsula from coast to coast are preparing for this storm. I don't like the wording that the NHC is using. It's nerve-wracking.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:12 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Post
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The 23:45 IR of the CDO is just incredible:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:12 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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I wouldn't be too sure of that, Hugh. Katrina managed to stay a Cat 5 for almost 2 days...and barely weakened upon landfall. Of course, I'm HOPING it will weaken, I'm just not all that sure it will happen given this season's track record.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:13 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:
We on this forum must be allowed with no fear of getting the graveyard by saying or calling things the way we happen to seee it.
No you musnt. The ability to post on this site whatever you want to is NOT A GIVEN. The admins and mods have the right to tell you what you can post and when. There must be a lot of people related on this site as they all make the same mistakes when posting...
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:15 PM |
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Category 2
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She's officially a Category 2 storm now at the 8pm update.
100kt winds.
954mb pressure (which should be cat 3 normally).
She's got excellent IR presentation with a clearly defined eye surrounded by deep, intense convection.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:15 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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I would love to see your graveyarded post. Is there any other reason it might have benn sent to the great hurricane in the heavens?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:16 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Post
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Holy Cow~
That's not just incredible, it's unbelievable! I wouldn't be surprised if we have a "Special Update" before the next scheduled advisory. It's a beautiful sight, I just wish it was a fish-spinner.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:18 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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You did not read my post correctly. I was saying that when posters post using everything available to observe conditions surrounding a storm and making a comment for discussion, is that when you say CAT4/5 or the strength of a storm that it gets critisized and or dumped to the graveyard.. That is what I was trying to convey.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:18 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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plenty of reasons, and you can see them. they are in the graveyard which is a completely different forum on this site. when you go there, make sure you have on your sound, it is quite funny.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:18 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Post
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Its absolutely amazing. As I said before, I have never seen a CDO so intense before, ever. My god. This thing is strengthening at an absolutely incredible pace.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:19 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Wilma maintaning her strength after this rapid intensification cycle is not a given. Storms like this that travel to higher latitudes this time of year often meet with dry air penetration and fronts, causing a fair amount of weakening.
We should all just remain vigilante and watch the projected path and intensity forecasts. It is still a good distance and time away.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:21 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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I for on Pam in volusia think that the force 2005 made a reasonable and intelligent statement. However I have noticed that you are like a rubberband waiting to snap sometimes. I dont think there was anything wrong with his post. Try and be a little less critical!
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:24 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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I belive it was sent to the graveyard, because I had commented on the fact that Wilma, which wasn't classified a storm yet, was saying that Wilma would become a storm, hurricane and possibly a CAT4/5 hurricane in about 5 days. Rhis was based on current conditions, looking at trends of prior hurricanes and the very deep warm SST's. That is all. But I must have scared someone for such a post to be graveyard.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:25 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Well, Force, I read your posts. I see your insight now, but posting on this board is a privledge, not a right. You can't tell a cop that he's wrong or does not share your opinionion and he is wrong without risking a ticket.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:28 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Thank You
The Force!!!
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:31 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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I read the last 5 posts and looks as though they may be sent to the graveyard, so i may as well jump on board...LOL....
Force - I don't think your post scared someone and thats why it was sent away...maybe it was because of the speculation, especially when your prediction, 5-6 days out, didn't jive with any of the current info from the NHC. They never said anything about a possible cat 4 or cat 5....thats probably why they 86'd your post. You guys should know that these people want factual information or else they will delete it. I don't have a problem with you Force.....just adding why i think they got rid of your post.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:32 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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As I recall, this is a site for open discussion. My comments are there for such discussion. If there are posters on this site, that somehow get affected by what is being said or commenting on, then we as all posters on this site are should look at the very essence of why we are here. We love the weather and the storms it creates.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:34 PM |
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Check This Out...
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..because it could be *key* as to whether Wilma takes a turn to the NE further north or further south:
NOAA WV Loop for Western US
You'll see there are two features twirling...one just exiting near Nevada and one near the Gulf of Alaska. If these two can get together, they will push Wilma further to the south. If they do not, Wilma will make her turn later, moving it further up the western coast of Florida. I've heard that like 100 times tonight on TV, but I wanted to show the link. It's pretty neat. However, to my untrained eye, it does not appear to me that they have any chance of meeting up. Does anyone else see a chance of that happening?
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:34 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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back to basics, in looking at the 18z gfs and gfdl it looks as tho both of them have moved further north from the 12z, interesting...
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:35 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Post
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Good heavens. I leave for home a 6pm and get home about 7:15, grab something to eat, console kitty, run to the computer, and find a dramatic drop in pressure, and a very striking CDO. The symmetry of the bands in the 23:15Z is beautiful (on WV), with two symmetric commas of cold cloudtops in the CDO (I had to zoom in and keep looking at it!), and the jump in the size of convection from 22:45Z to 23:45Z is amazing.
Now the compactness of the central core, with the dry air partially separating it from the feeder bands, becomes an advantage, and it can quickly turn into a small buzzsaw of a storm. Wonder if pressure is still dropping like a rock.
Well this throws off my analysis. If she's going to ramp up this fast now, I expect an ERC to throw a wrench in the works by the time she gets to the deeper warm water tomorrow.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:36 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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I'll jump on too!
I think the issue is non-backed up info. You posted that you believed the storm would hit Cat 4/5. That is all fine and good based on what the GFDL model was doing at the time, the problem is you didn't specify that you might have looked at the GFDL or indicated how SSTs would effect the storm strength, or whether there would be favorable atmospheric conditions, etc. If you give evidence to back up your acsertation, then the posts generally get left. If you don't, then the posts generally are sent to the graveyard as either "wishcasting" or "uncorroborated worry-mongering" - you get the idea
.End result: If you're going to say something's going to become a monster, you better say why you feel that way based on conditions and/or models. In the same manner, one should do the same if they think a monster is going to dissipate to nothing before landfall. Anything that is well off of guidence needs some logic behind it, or it is usually graveyarded (just from what I've seen at least).
--RC
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:37 PM |
Re: Vortex message
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Hello, idiot noob here
Been lurking awhile though, found this place last year
My question for the hurricane wizards is:
"How does the storm intensity affect the steering of the storm?"
For example, in reading all the posts in this thread there is quite a bit of mention about how west Wilma is in relation to when the trough picks it up, that that would make her go more southerly
BUT, if she is at a high (extreme) intensity, would that not correct some of that westerly movement in relation to the overall long-term forecast track?
I mean, since it's so strong, will that intensity counteract any westerly movements and that is why the track is where it is, because they pre-planned this level of intensity from the beginning?
Thanks,
Your new stupid noob
Dave
Boynton Beach, FL
Projected exit point off the east coast for Wilma
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:39 PM |
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Re: Check This Out...
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WOW.. Thats interesting! Thanks Coleen:)
Re: the models further North. Yeah, I see that as well
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:40 PM |
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Re: Accuweather Post
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Wilma is certainly going to town right now, but I'm not sure how long it will last. There is still dry air lurking to the north, and the outflow still seems restricted somewhat to the west. The eye is so small that it could come apart rather quickly if it falters. I guess we'll find out in the next few hours.
Considering that this is still at least 4 days away from potential landfall in Florida, there could be several cycles in intensity between now and then. Whatever Wilma peaks at when this cycle of intensification is over, it will very likely come down some from that at least temporarily. Subsequent cycles in intensity will likely occur after that, but predicting the details of those is pretty much impossible.
As it usually does after a storm commences rapid intensification, the latest SHIPS guidance has gone berserk, bringing Wilma to 129 knots by 48 hours and maintaining most of that intensity until landfall:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGHUR
|
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:40 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:
As I recall, this is a site for open discussion.
You are correct...Open Discussion of Tropical Weather. Not why your post was graveyarded. I have read the posts in question. I didn't send them to the grave yard. But obviously the MOD or ADMIN that did send them there thought they were out of context, wishcasting, or wave mongering. I can't speak for that person.
If you wish to discuss your posts please use the PM feature to exchange information.
Wilma, is apparently in a Rapid Intensification mode and needs to be watched carefully. Read Colleen's previous posts and please don't waste Any time on your preparations. If you have time to go fuel up tonight. You might want to do that. As the lines will be tremendous tomorrow, and I'm sure they will raise the prices. As Colleen commented.
Now back to our Regular Programming.~danielw[b/]
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:40 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:
Hello, idiot noob here
Been lurking awhile though, found this place last year
No one's an idiot
Quote:
My question for the hurricane wizards is:
"How does the storm intensity affect the steering of the storm?"
The pressure level of the storm effects what steering layers of the atmosphere effect it. I'm not a met, so I can't tell you "why" this is, but it is. To see what the steering layers are, take a look at CMISS: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html - the pressure of the storm is under "for TC MSLP of..." on each row.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:41 PM |
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Another Look
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Here's the Visible for those two features I was talking about:
NOAA VISIBLE WESTERN US
These may be why the models are shifting more to the north. I don't see them coming together to keep Wilma pushed further south. What do you guys think?
For anyone who missed my earlier posts, these two features are being keyed in on by the local forecasters as to why Wilma would stay further south or move further north. I explained the reasoning in the WV post.
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:42 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Random,
You make a very valid and correct statement about my posts. I guess I need just a little more to back it up. But here is my point, what if the NHC comes back with an update that says Wilma wind's have increased to over 130 MPH. do we as hobbyist's tell the NHC that what proof do you have when they said otherwise that this would occur. That is why it's called an open discussion. I will rest and get back to the storm itself. If I offended anyone on this forum, well, please accept my sicere apologies.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:44 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Yes colleen i saw your posts and agree totally. i hope hank or clark or someone can tell us we are wrong and this isnt gonna trend more north tomorrow. at any rate I for 1 am gonna heed the warnings and gas up just in case, everything else is in order so might as well i can always use it in the lawnmower if need be
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:44 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Very well explained and tactfully done as always!
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:47 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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So what you are saying, Colleen, is that the trough over the NM/TX border will not make it in time to push Wilma to the NE as it is now forcasted; therefore makeing that NE turn later and further North than indicated? I agree with you. Does anybody know exactly how fast the trough is currently moving?
| iuhoosiers |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:51 PM |
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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The computer models don't look to be going up to the north, Bamm was just ran and it is the exact same, if anything the storm will move more south of florida because it has yet to make that definite turn to the north as lyons said on the WTC. I'm just hoping that this storm goes south of florida and out to sea.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:51 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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You are right. No need to freak out but I can tell you that with Rita I had my reservations 120 hours out and I am glad I did.
So, if you anywhere in the cone decide where you will go now and make plans for it. You can always cancel later.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:52 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Be sure and call the hotel direct for reservations.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:53 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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I somehow think that the mets are whistling in the dark about those western features. I can not see how they would be able to combine unless one of them slows down or speeds up.
I believe the best hope for a good outcome would be for the storm to max out before it gets near Florida.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:53 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Yeah, major storm here we come. Just caught this quote off an AP wire report:
Quote:
"We just don't see why it should not become a major hurricane, if not a Category 4 hurricane" over the warm waters, said Max Mayfield, director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami. "That should get people's attention."
P.S. - Mods: When you move a post to another forum any reply gets moved too. Just happened to me. Wierd!
I'm sorry about that. I tried to move it as fast as I could. Computers are only sooo fast. You can copy and paste it back here if you wish.~danielw
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:53 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Colleen, I think Dennis Phillips is thinking the same scenario. I guess we'll find out soon enough.
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:54 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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I saw the same thing on the news stations tonight. I agree with you Colleen that it doesnt look like the two will hook up. The one in the gulf of alaska would have to really speed up to catch the other low. Unfortunately for all of us on the west coast, this is not going to become more clear on landfall until i feel there will be little time for evacs and preps. I would suggest to all on west coast to start getting there preps going. Better to be prepasred rather getting caught with your pants down. I am pullin out the boards tomorrow and get them at the ready, so that they can go up at a moments notice. Gassin up in morning. Hopefully for us here in the tampa area it will stay south. But I am not sold on that just yet.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:54 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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I checked the 18z runs and GFDL and GFS still have Wilma going through or south of Ft. Myers. The GFDL is the Ft. Myers area and GFS is south of there. The features that the NHC was talking about was a system in California, high pressure in gulf area and a trough...nothing was said about Alaska. The NHC said the system in Cal was already doing what they said it would do and the high pressure system in gulf is doing what they forecasted. That should complete the northward turn....the NE turn depends on the trough....all models are still keeping with that trough because they are still pin-pointing southern fla - ft myers and southward.
| nicolew |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:56 PM |
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Florida Training Exercise - Hurricane Wilma in 2002!!!
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Was surfing around on the Internet and found this:
http://www.dca.state.fl.us/bpr/preparedness/wilma/hurricane_wilma_narrative.htm
It seems Florida did a training exercise with a simulated "Hurricane Wilma" back in 2002!
Most of the discussion here is about landfall on the southwest Florida coast - if that happens, what kind of effects would we be feeling in Miami?
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:57 PM |
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Re: Just some thought....yea right...
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Well, the METS at the NHC are now saying that. But they said a couple days back that it would not intensify to this level. What do we call this latest report, SPECULATION!!
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:57 PM |
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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Quote:
The computer models don't look to be going up to the north, Bamm was just ran and it is the exact same, if anything the storm will move more south of florida because it has yet to make that definite turn to the north as lyons said on the WTC. I'm just hoping that this storm goes south of florida and out to sea.
Exactly! But, also the further West Wilma moves before turning to the North (and eventually NE) the farther North the track will be
Let me explain myself. Lets say Wilma turns more NNW and brushes the southern tip of Cuba and the turns NE. It would then probably stay in the Florida Straights based on the angle.
Now, if Wilma stays more Westerly and brushes the Yucitan Penninsula and the turns N to NE it could hit anywhere from Punta Gorda to Cedar Key.
So the bottom line is that any body living on the west coast of Florida should be preparing for a Cat 2/ Cat 3 hurricane.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:58 PM |
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Re: 5PM Disco...
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What we did was make the reservations 120 hours out just in case but we didn't leave until 3 in the morning on Friday and the storm
hit around 3 in the morning on Saturday. You can't really make plans two or three days out because you might not have a place
to go (unless you go to family then you are okay). So make reservations early. You can always cancel them. That is the most impor-
tant thing. Another thing, make sure you take flashlights. Rita tracked right through Lufkin as a Cat 1 (she hit here as a Cat 3) and
so power was out for a day in Lufkin. Take lots of food and water with you. If it is a Cat 3 or higher, leave if you can.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 08:58 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Colleen - Where is the northward shift with the models? I looked at the models and only two - the GFDL and GFS are 18z. All others are still 12 or 00. Do you have an updated link for the models you saw? The ones i saw still look pretty much the same. Unless you mean northward shift as in south of Naples to Ft. Myers. The models, currently (except LBAR) are at or south of Ft. Myers.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:00 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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New Dvorak rating out - way up! (not that this wasn't expected)
Code:
-> 18/2345 UTC 16.7N 81.8W T5.5/5.5 WILMA
18/1715 UTC 16.6N 80.9W T4.5/4.5 WILMA
Source: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:02 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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I agree! I am also in St. Pete and I am getting ready as well(just in case). I did not hear what Dennis Phillips had to say, but he will go out on a limb sometimes and give his true opinion no matter what the NHC says.. I remember that clearley from last year.
Thanks again Colleen for that link, I had no idea that it existed!
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:02 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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it's exploding
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:03 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:
...the issue is non-backed up info.
If you give evidence to back up your acsertation, then the posts generally get left. If you don't, then the posts generally are sent to the graveyard as either "wishcasting" or "uncorroborated worry-mongering" - you get the idea
End result: If you're going to say something's going to become a monster, you better say why you feel that way based on conditions and/or models.
--RC
I agree with that. I try to provide some basis. My post from 6:35a this morning, before Wilma was even a hurricane:
"...it is possible that Wilma is going to go higher than a Cat 3 in the Caribbean. This newest track is over some of the warmest deep waters that are left. However, NHC doesn't forecast this, and they know a lot more than I do, so we'll see, but I did see the word "intense" hurricane so I think that it's possible they're laying the ground for ramping up the intensity forecast."
| swimaway19 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:04 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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If Wilma were to make landfall S of Ft Myers, what do you think the effects would be as far north as Tampa?
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:05 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Front page "spaghetti models" at Colorado State 1800UTC
updated models
| the young weatherman |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:06 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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I am seeing another hurricane Andrew hiting florida
(luckily I don't live there)
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:07 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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What's the deal with the A98E model? That's quite a right hook!
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/imagelinkbeta.asp?image=AL242005
| swimaway19 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:08 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Any thoughts on the most recent Canadian Model? I know its always been an outlier, but could the new run have a hint of merit?
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:09 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Quote:
it's exploding
The feeder bands are being sloughed off (life support that is no longer needed), and she's consolidating.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:09 PM |
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Re: 5PM Disco...
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You can avoid being stuck in a lot of traffic. We are very glad we evacuated. But we left at 3 in the morning after most people had
already left. One of the problems with Rita was Houston evacuated (and theirs was voluntary except the coastal parts). They came
up our evacuation routes and filled up our shelters and the hotels. We, of course, had a mandatory evacuation because Rita was
headed for us. Also, Houston didn't have contraflow soon enough. We had it early on. It was still slow but part of that was because
of the Houston traffic coming down 69 (which they weren't supposed to do). Overall, our county did well considering. We flew lots
of people out including Katrina evacuees that had been staying in Beaumont, Port Arthur, etc. Very few stayed here and that was
why the death toll was so low. We had so many HUGE trees in and on houses that I think more would have died if a lot had stayed.
There were people who stayed but about 90% of the county evacuated. It has been a little over three weeks since Rita and most
have electricity but some still don't. You have to think about all of that if you plan to stay. We had NO services in the city
and so for those who stayed it was rough going for about four days. FEMA was slow to respond also. And please, everyone, if you
leave take your pets. Some of the stories I am hearing about pets that were left behind are so sad. It makes me so mad.
I think Wilma will be a major cane when she hits with the way this season is going so be prepared now just incase.
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:10 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Isn't LBAR pretty unreliable??(new Skeetobite).... Lets hope so for Pinellas County
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:10 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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I'm looking at the 18Z GFDL model, which, along with the WV imagery has a truly frightening scenario appearing to be possible.
Now follow this one along folks, because I don't think I'm completely off-base with it.
The WV imagery clearly shows the two low-pressure centers - the foci of the trough(s) involved - over Alaska and just east of southern California. These two features are moving at a decent clip towards the east, with the Alaskan feature, as is the usual for such things, diving south and the other moving slight north of east.
I do not see these combining as some of the models suggest - rather, I see an amplification effect rather than a combinatorial one setting itself up. For them to combine one must basically "run over" the other, with the stronger being the one who does the running over (the Alaskan). It looks to me like the southern feature is going to get here first, before it gets overtaken though. This is consistent with what happens frequently this time of year - you get a first impulse that drives a trough towards the gulf, and a second impulse of energy rides "shotgun" and forces it further south.
In addition the WV loop clearly shows the high near the BOC that has been suppressing northward and west motion backing off, as predicted.
The GFDL appears to think that Wilma gets picked up by a frontal boundary that is approximately N-S off the MS/LA coast by the 23rd, and that the weakness in front of that is what drives the storm to the north and east.
However, the GFDL doesn't "see" the obvious low over the NV/CA border right now, looking at this model run. So....
If we get the "impulse" model, then the storm should run somewhat more north of the predicted track. This puts it in closer to Tampa than Sarasota. What's potentially ugly about this scenario, however, is that it will likely exit closer to Jacksonville and ride up the coast - and if the intensity forecast is to be believed, the GFDL shows (weak) Cat 3 windfields (to the east of center, natch) off Long Island at 00Z 24 October, with a 976 mb central pressure and a wild-looking hybrid system off the east coast.
Plausible? Maybe. Much worse though if its about 75nm west of the forecast position.... and if that combination of troughs does not happen, but we get the "impulse" scenario instead, I'd expect a somewhat left and northward shift..... which could set that up. Given the pounding from the weather that this part of the nation has taken over the last week, a strong tropical system off the NE coast is exactly what they don't need come early next week.
The bad news is the forward motion - this sucker is going to be really hauling butt once it gets picked up, so there will not be a lot of warning in this sort of situation, and a few degrees of error in the turn - or a few hours of error in the timing - could make the difference in terms of endpoint as well.
This one bears watching folks - that same GFDL model shows a small area of Cat 4 winds (not sure I believe that!) on the east coast just as the storm is about to exit back over water. Certainly, a 6-hour transit time over the peninsula looks plausible.... quick - too quick for it to lose much definition and strength in the process.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:12 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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How about a link there pal......got one to that colorado site??
| CMS |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:12 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:
Random,
You make a very valid and correct statement about my posts. I guess I need just a little more to back it up. But here is my point, what if the NHC comes back with an update that says Wilma wind's have increased to over 130 MPH. do we as hobbyist's tell the NHC that what proof do you have when they said otherwise that this would occur. That is why it's called an open discussion. I will rest and get back to the storm itself. If I offended anyone on this forum, well, please accept my sicere apologies.
I find this a very interesting issue. Certainly wild "no science" predictions from some nut case peering into a cyrstal ball don't belong on this forum. But some of us use long range models, research previous paths of October storms, looks at water temps and can come up with great forecast like Force 2005 did in this case. I'm better with Cape Verdes storms and accurately determined Isabel's landfall within 50 miles, 8 days out. I guess it's hard for a moderator to decide the basis for these predictions, but maybe the rule could be relaxed if the person posting a prediction adds a little background info into how and why (ie science) he's coming up with the forecast.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:14 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Does anyone have a link to those spaghetti models from colorado state??? Supposedly they are up-to-date and moreso than the 18z runs i looked at a bit ago.
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:14 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Unfortunatly, I don't know how to post a link otherwise I would have... Can someone please post a link to the Colorado State Spaghetti models.. Thanks
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:15 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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this storm just started moving decently this morning. the models havent had a chance to get a hold of it yet and really wont until the oz runs tonight i think. after that, tomorrow we will have a better idea what is gonna happen and even then nothin is set in stone
peace
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:16 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
| the young weatherman |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:17 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:Quote:
Random,
You make a very valid and correct statement about my posts. I guess I need just a little more to back it up. But here is my point, what if the NHC comes back with an update that says Wilma wind's have increased to over 130 MPH. do we as hobbyist's tell the NHC that what proof do you have when they said otherwise that this would occur. That is why it's called an open discussion. I will rest and get back to the storm itself. If I offended anyone on this forum, well, please accept my sicere apologies.
I find this a very interesting issue. Certainly wild "no science" predictions from some nut case peering into a cyrstal ball don't belong on this forum. But some of us use long range models, research previous paths of October storms, looks at water temps and can come up with great forecast like Force 2005 did in this case. I'm better with Cape Verdes storms and accurately determined Isabel's landfall within 50 miles, 8 days out. I guess it's hard for a moderator to decide the basis for these predictions, but maybe the rule could be relaxed if the person posting a prediction adds a little background info into how and why (ie science) he's coming up with the forecast.
Most people here I believe,forecast with enough info to support there forecast. I will say that person is a nut case if they say that Wilma will suddenly vanish the next few hours. any forecaster from a Cat 1 hurricane to Cat 5 hurricane is good for now if they have good proof
| sara33 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:17 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Thanks Pam
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:18 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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I still believe things will be clearer late tonight and tomorrow morning when I assume, the new NOAA G-IV sampling will be in the model mix.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:19 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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She is really looking good. Always amazes me...to watch these storms develop. And haven't we seen some develop this season!
Wilma seems to really be growing.
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:20 PM |
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Timing
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I have a timing question on the models. Want to make sure I understand this correctly.
The time for the models is in military terms, i.e. 1800 = 6 p.m., and is bound to Zulu, or GMT time. GMT is 4 hours ahead of those of us on the East Coast of the U.S. So, for example, as I write this it is 9:18 p.m. here and therefore 1:18 a.m. at GMT, i.e. 0118 Zulu.
So, an 1800 Zulu run is 6 p.m. there, meaning 2 p.m. here. Ergo, if I look at an 1800 Zulu run right now at about 9 p.m EST., its seven hours old and does not include anything that happened in the last seven hours in terms of movement or recon data.
Have I got it right or am I way off? Any help getting me corrected would be much appreciated.
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:20 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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I know it's just a jog but that last shot on the IR loop looks south of west to me.
| swimaway19 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:21 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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yeah, I just saw that too
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:22 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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probably some sideways rain on and off, slight gusts, and humid conditions. I would imagine it all depends on the intensity and size of the storm. I think pretty much all the models are in agreement that it will exit into the Atlantic rather than going up the 1-4 corrider. If it went up the corrider so to speak it would have the same effects as Charlie did last year if you were here then.
| the young weatherman |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:22 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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We will see what really happens as the storm moves on, we'll see
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:22 PM |
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Re: Vortex message
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Quote:http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/late1.png
Does anyone have a link to those spaghetti models from colorado state??? Supposedly they are up-to-date and moreso than the 18z runs i looked at a bit ago.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:23 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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I would agree, I have been seeing a straight west movement. Also, does anyone see that compared to 9-12 hours ago that the ridge is backing off to the west? Timing being everything, if it pulls back enough without the jet dipping Wilma could just go west? Any agreement at all out there.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:24 PM |
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Re: Timing
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You are correct. The 18Z model run is 2PM EDT.
Not exactly a current run..but the latest run.
I just checked the NCEP site and the GFS Model out to 120 hours won't be out for another 3 hours, at 0420Z.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:24 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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000
URNT12 KNHC 182328
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/23:09:50Z
B. 16 deg 36 min N
081 deg 41 min W
C. 850 mb 1037 m
D. 45 kt
E. 178 deg 049 nm
F. 257 deg 080 kt
G. 167 deg 007 nm
H. 954 mb
I. 18 C/ 1518 m
J. 22 C/ 1524 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C8
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 0524A WILMA OB 21
MAX FL WIND 82 KT NE QUAD 21:39:30 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 101 KT N QUAD 23:12:10
VERY TIGHT WIND CENTER
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:26 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Quote:they grow up soo fast dont they? you blink your eyes and their gone. lol just a little humor. sounds like a mother or grandmother referring to her children. .
She is really looking good. Always amazes me...to watch these storms develop. And haven't we seen some develop this season!
Wilma seems to really be growing.
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:27 PM |
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Re: Timing
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Quote:
You are correct. The 18Z model run is 2PM EDT.
Not exactly a current run..but the latest run.
I just checked the NCEP site and the GFS Model out to 120 hours won't be out for another 3 hours, at 0420Z.
Thanks for the reply and the info. Out of curiosity, why so long between runs?
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:27 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Wilma is rapidly intensifying tonight, not unlike that seen with Charley last year. After my previous post, I took a look at some of the microwave imagery -- the infrared imagery implies that the actual core of the system is much larger than in actuality. The microwave data further confirms the tight inner-core structure of Wilma, something that both lends itself to rapid intensification and rapid weakening. The eyewall is likely relatively stable right now, lending itself to another 12hr or so of strengthening. The 12z GFDL prediction of a 932mb central pressure at 12z Wednesday is turning out to not be that far off; if anything, right now I think it might be a tad conservative.
It is important to emphasize two things: one, I do not anticipate this storm becoming as strong as Rita or Katrina, though the possibility is there. I do anticipate it to become a category 4 hurricane, potentially by the 11a advisory tomorrow or sooner. Two, I do not anticipate this storm being nearly this strong at landfall in Florida. More like, we're looking at somewhere near the intensity of Ivan, or about 125mph, at landfall. Increasing shear will have a greater impact upon this type of storm than it would normally, particularly for an accelerating one like this one is projected to be.
Interests in the NE US should watch this one too. While it is projected to head into the Atlantic and pass between Cape Hatteras and Bermuda, some of the models are suggesting that the storm may turn back more toward the north and phase with the upper-level pattern, resulting in a very, very intense area of low pressure somewhere between the northeast US and Canadian Maritimes. The latest ECMWF projection shows 952mb over Caribou in about a week...probably on the high end, but for a transitioning storm and the intensity of the projected trough, not out of the realm of possibility. For now, just something to watch; notably, the GFS is much weaker and further east with this scenario.
Summary -- cat 4 sometime tomorrow, cat 3 at landfall (NHC path looks good from this end, maybe a touch further north), potential for a significant extratropical cyclone in about a week's time.
More later.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:29 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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I agree. I want to see the 0Z runs that contain the most recent recon data. The storm enviroment changed since the last good data dump. Personal feeling is that there is sometimes a bias in the GFS to be a little overly agressive on fronts in October. Going to be interesting to see what comes out. I am not sure there will be a shift, however. Have to be aware of what a strong storm does this time of year.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:33 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Thank you, Genesis. You explained exactly what I was trying to show with those two features in the western part of the U.S. I do not believe, at this time, that there is any possible way for these two features to meet and combine, which would keep Wilma further south. I just read the NWS Ruskin update and they mention these two features + some others, and they are backing off on calling this a Southern Florida event right now because there are too many ifs.
I don't believe the models have picked up on this yet, either. Denis Phillips is an Accuweather forecaster and he was the first one to point out this new feature in the Gulf of Alaska. Which would probably explain why Accuweather.com has Wilma making landfall a little further north than the track is right now.
Thanks for taking the time to explain this ... because it will be a significant player in who gets what.
Colleen
| crpeavley |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:38 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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It is also possible that these changes will be relfected with the 00Z runs when they take in the data from the NOAA Jet. I am still trying to get some meteoroligical opinion on this.
| swimaway19 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:38 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Does anyone know where I can find the recon schedule for Wilma?
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:41 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?
| swimaway19 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:42 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Thanks, its tough trying to fill in the gaps of whats been happening when I come back from school!
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:42 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Recon is tasked with a 05Z (1AM EDT) fix tonight. The second plane is enroute at this time and is over the FL Peninsula. They should be over the GOM in the next 30 minutes.
Roughly around 3 hours before a new update on the pressure and winds.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:46 PM |
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Re: Timing
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Lawgator, most of the global models take 5-6 hours to run to their completion, which is why they are only run every 6 hours and why the data is always somewhat delayed from the initialization time.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:52 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Colleen - I am glad you elaborated and wish you would have mentioned Accuweather's track earlier...i saw that too and figured they were going along with their own mets and not the NHC. So thats what you meant when you said a shift in the models...it looks as though Accuweather is following the GFDL seeing that that model is pretty close to their projected path. I am confused though...if the two systems DO combine, then Wilma will move further south? Or if they DONT combine, Wilma will move further south?
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:55 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Clark, do you think that Wilma will maintain its current its tight inner-core structure throughout its lifetime? The models seem to suggest that the size of the storm will increase as it gets near the Gulf of Mexico. I'm not sure what to expect myself... I wouldn't be surprised if it reinvents itself as a larger, less tightly wound system after the current tiny inner core inevitably breaks down at some point.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:58 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Im pretty sure she meant if they dont combine it will pull further north. Accuweather doesnt think they will combine.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 09:58 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Clark - i was wondering the same thing and also, get this. The GFDL run 18z shows a higher wind speed once over the Fla peninsula than it does just before landfall in Lee County. I think the knots are 109 prior to landfall and then the model shows 121 when Wilma is crossing the state. That's weird!
Please feel free to check my numbers they may not be exact, but i do know that the wind speed was less while still over water and more once the eyewall was totally over land.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:00 PM |
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Earlier (18Z) Models
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Examples of how the differences in the models.
Excerpts from the:
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
137 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005 (edited~danielw)
VALID OCT 18/1200 UTC THRU OCT 22/0000 UTC
...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
......HRCN WILMA...
THE 12Z GFS AND UKMET SOLNS OVERALL SHOW BETTER CONTINUITY AND HAVE MORE SIMILAR TRACKS WITH WILMA THRU DAY 3. BOTH OF THESE MDLS SHOW WILMA TRACKING OFF THE WRN TIP OF CUBA AND INTO THE SERN GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE DAY 3.
THE 00Z HI-RES ECMWF IS NOT TOO DIFF BUT
IS A LITTLE SLOWER. THE 12Z CMC SOLN IS FASTER THAN THE 12Z MDL CONSENSUS BUT SHOWS A RATHER SIMILAR TRACK THRU THE SAME TIME PD OTHERWISE.
THE NAM IS THE BIGGEST OUTLIER ONCE AGAIN WITH A TRACK WELL TO THE LEFT AND MUCH SLOWER THAN THE 12Z MDL CONSENSUS.
PLS SEE LATEST NHC FCST DISC FOR ADDITIONAL TRACK INFORMATION AND
GUIDANCE.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:02 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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I noticed that about the GFDL, however the Cat 4 winds are off the east coast of FL, not over FL. It could be the result of the inner core breaking down...though it's strange. It then maintains itself as a strong assymetrical storm heading up the east coast.
I suspect we'll get better guidence as the storm gets closer to landfall.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:02 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Sorry about that! This is what Denis Phillips said tonight:
1) If the area near the Gulf of Alaska and the area near the TX/NM border combine, then that scenario will keep Wilma further south, because it would push her further south before she could make that turn.
2) If they do NOT combine, Wilma will come further north before making the NE turn, in which case, you may be looking at a landfall a little closer (not in) to TB than the track is at right now.
That's why I think the models will move a little further north than they are right now. I just cannot see how they can catch up with each other. Today was the first time I even heard about the Gulf of Alaska feature.
Sorry for the confusion...sometimes I just get caught up and don't exactly explain everything in writing that's in my head.
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:03 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Depends on how they "combine".
Two things can happen, basically....
The two lows could "merge", forming a much stronger single impulse of energy. This is the scenario that most of the global models seem to be favoring, and it would tend to drive the storm further east, thereby leading to a more southerly impact point and, once it has exited from the peninsula, reduce the risk of a "part II" event in the Northeast US.
I see this as rather unlikely, just from the relative motions of the two features, the WV imagery, and the upper level atmospheric support. I won't call it "impossible", but I'm not buying it, particularly since some of the models, most notably the 18Z GFDL, completely miss the southern feature that is obviously present at this time!
What I see as more likely is an "amplification" scenario, where the first trough gets here and sets up roughly at the MS/AL border and then the second amplifies and drives it further south and eastward, possibly even to the extent of inverting it somewhat. This would tend to promote more of a poleward as opposed to eastward motion, as there would be a more poleward "tilt" to the trough axis.
That scenario would tend to run the storm more of a NNE track than NE or ENE - that is, a more northward impact point.
SMALL changes in heading with a storm paralleling the coast make for big differences in exactly where it goes in, as we saw last year with Charlie.......
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:06 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Quote:
I think the knots are 109 prior to landfall and then the model shows 121 when Wilma is crossing the state. That's weird!
I'm not a MET, but I would think that the wind speed increase you are seeing could possibly be due to a pressure gradient interaction with the cold front in the area.
That could change some of the impacts from the wind.
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:07 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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So...Does anybody know how fast the trough is moving?? What about the Low in the Gulf of Alaska?? Now I know that systems speed up and slow down, but wouldn't knowing the speeds of the two answer alot of questions??
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:08 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Just an interesting tidbit I noticed: Wilma's prejected landfall point (line, not cone) is almost exactly the same as where Katrina left Florida:
http://www.solar.ifa.hawaii.edu/Tropical/GifArchive/atl2005.gif
| ChessieStorm |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:15 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Last year Frances and Jeannie hit almost in the exact same spot (3 weeks apart). I think it was like 10 miles difference but the effects were the same.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:23 PM |
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NWS Tampa Area Forecast Discussion
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Here's a late update to the Wilma situation from NWS Tampa,FL.
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
910 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2005 (edited~danielw)
AS FOR WILMA...SHE`S UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION AS PREDICTED...
AND SPINNING SLOWLY TO THE WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN.
MOST RECENT SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT FAVORING THE WORST IMPACTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA/KEYS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...IT`S FAR TOO SOON FOR ANYONE TO
LET THEIR GUARD DOWN GIVEN THAT THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF THE "PLAYERS" IN THIS EVENT...UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND BEYOND...IS STILL TO COME. SLIGHT DEVIATIONS IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ANY ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE MOST IMPACT WILL BE EXPERIENCED WHEN WILMA APPROACHES. STAY TUNED
emphasis added~danielw
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=AFDTBW&max=51
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:24 PM |
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models
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Conditions at Buoy 42057, incredible how they have gone downhill throughout the day. Water temps @ 85.1
| iuhoosiers |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:28 PM |
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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HAS ANYONE TAKEN A LOOK AT THE A98E MODEL? OBVIOUSLY THAT IS THE BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR US ALL, DOES ANYONE KNOW HOW ACCURATE THIS MODEL IS? AS FOR THE MODELS MOVING NORTH THEY LOOK THE SAME TO ME, LBAR MAYBE A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH TAKING THE STORM BETWEEN TAMPA AND FT, MYERS, BUT BAMM AND BAMD ARE QUITE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING THE STORM OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:29 PM |
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Re: Another Look
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Actually a good track as far as development/buildings/people, to have it come in right there in the Everglades. The natural ecosystem there has had years and years to adjust to surviving powerful hurricane landfalls.
Looks like convection peaked with the 0115Z, which was the most impressive of the wv images from the past couple hours. The central core has that rounded rising-donut appearance right now that I've come to associate with Cat 4 intensity. I have a strong belief that recon will find a pressure in the 930s.
Note: I meant the 1am recon mentioned earlier. The 11pm gives an est pressure of 945mb.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:32 PM |
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models
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I know it doesn't mean much, but i checked several buoys in the area projected to be the landfall point and the water temp is 80-83 degrees F. I also checked a buoy way out in the gulf - off the Ft. Myers shore and the water out there is 82 F.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:34 PM |
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models
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11 p m out at wunderground
...Wilma continues to rapidly strengthen...should become a major
hurricane in a few hours...
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200524.public.html
winds up to 110 Estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb...27.91 inches.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:35 PM |
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models
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Sorry, don't understand...I see the same water temps all day.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:38 PM |
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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That would be a good scenario! As far as the other models being consistent in keeping it further south, keep in mind that sometimes they do not pick up on the speed or strength of the other players ... like the ones we are talking about tonight. If the A98E is the only one doing that, that's an outlier.
I believe Denis Phillips said we will know by tomorrow whether the two features in the Western US will combine. That's when we will a *pretty* good idea of what's to come down the road.
The models are only as good as what information is put into them...some don't pick up features, some overstrengthen them, some understrengthen them. That's why it's usually two days out before we have good idea of where the general area of landfall will be.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:40 PM |
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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11pm Advisory:
( http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/190231.shtml )
Quote:
REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N... 82.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 945 MB.
from the advisory~danielw
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:41 PM |
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models
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Those are current environment temps. Reference to throughout day is pressure and winds.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:41 PM |
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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The NOAA g4 jet flew its first synoptic surveillance mission on
Wilma this evening...and it will be interesting to see the impact
on the 00z model runs.
i think forcaster Beven has been reading our posts .....
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:42 PM |
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Re: NWS Tampa Area Forecast Discussion
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Quote:
MOST RECENT SUITE OF MODEL GUIDANCE IN REMARKABLE AGREEMENT FAVORING THE WORST IMPACTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA/KEYS BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...IT`S FAR TOO SOON FOR ANYONE TO
LET THEIR GUARD DOWN GIVEN THAT THE ULTIMATE EVOLUTION OF THE "PLAYERS" IN THIS EVENT...UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. AND BEYOND...IS STILL TO COME. SLIGHT DEVIATIONS IN TIMING AND INTENSITY OF ANY ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE MOST IMPACT WILL BE EXPERIENCED WHEN WILMA APPROACHES. STAY TUNED
emphasis added~danielw
I'm just wondering; if the storm continues WNW to NW, that should or could put the northern scenario into play. Experts tell me if I'm "exhausting" hot air or not....
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:45 PM |
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models
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People plz try to stop with the tropical model suites ( LBAR,BAMN,BAMD, etc...) those models are horrible and run in paralle with the GFS......if a system goes the direction one of those goes,,then its just a couincidence.. Anyways the main models are the Nogaps, GFDL,ECMF,GFS,UKMET, CMC,, those are the global models.
Like I been also saying,,tonights 0Z runs are what too look at and also every data input on next flights...Now we will have a General ( but not exact) Idea of what and where this might do.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:48 PM |
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models
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Discussion's out, and a wow in it - something you don't see NHC saying all that often:
Quote:
THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BECOME MORE COMPLICATED. THE CURRENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BRING WILMA TO CATEGORY FOUR STATUS IN THE NEXT 24 HR...AND IT WOULD NOT BE A SURPRISE TO SEE IT REACH CATEGORY FIVE BEFORE IT BOTTOMS OUT.
HOWEVER...SSM/I DATA SHOWS THAT THE CONVECTION WITH THE EYEWALL COVERS A VERY SMALL AREA...WITH A DISTINCT DRY MOAT ALREADY PRESENT OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL. OUTSIDE OF THAT IS A BROKEN CONVECTIVE BAND
THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OUTER WIND MAXIMUM.
THUS...IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WILMA WILL GO THROUGH A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL CYCLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HR...AND SINCE THE INNER EYE IS SO SMALL THERE COULD BE NOTABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE OUTER EYEWALL
CONTRACTS. SINCE THESE CYCLES ARE HARD TO TIME...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL HOLD AT 125 KT FROM 24-48 HR. WHEN WILMA MOVES INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO...IT SHOULD ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GRADUALLY INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SLOW WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH IT IS PROBABLE THAT WILMA WILL STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
Entire discussion: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/190236.shtml
| harmlc.ath.cx |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:48 PM |
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models
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It looks like the NHC cone has shifted it a hair south. Will we see a shift in the cone more north come wednesday morning?
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:51 PM |
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models
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Question: NHC mentions SSMI microwave imagery. Is this the data they are talking about?
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...CT=1degreeticks
(That is the 85hz image from SSMIS - the question is, is 85hz the microwave one? I don't feel like hunting my Optics book to look up the frequency range on microwaves right now
)
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:53 PM |
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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What does 00z run stand for.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:58 PM |
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models
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Well there it is, from the 11pm:
IT IS PROBABLE THAT WILMA WILL STILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
Have to add I laughed when I read the opening statement. In stressful situations like this the odd bit of humor that they can insert into the discussions is something I do appreciate. Seems like their formula is to put it in the first sentence and then get down to business.
An almost guaranteed ERC will make the next 36 hrs interesting. Also noted in the advis that my earlier take on the increase to Cat 4 coming Wed aft/evng appears to be the thinking at NHC as well (even if she peaks tonight/early tomorrow morning as a Cat 4 or 5, then an ERC, and possibly coming back up to a Cat 4 tomorrow when reaching the warmer deep water).
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 10:59 PM |
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11PM Updates
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The Category Five reference isn't used very often.
However...it has been used two or three times This Year.
The cone will shift North, South East and West. From now until Wilma is no longer a Tropical System.
Please remember...Do Not look at the thin line in the cone. If the Cone covers your area. You are within the dangerous area of a Landfalling Hurricane and it's aftermath. The cone can widen to include areas not previously affected/ included in the Cone.
Please take this time to prepare your property and make preparations for evacuations.
As of the 11PM Advisory...The Whole Florida Peninsula is in the 5 Day Cone.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT24/refresh/AL2405W5_sm2+gif/023803W_sm.gif
| Circinae |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:01 PM |
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models
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Our area has been very lucky so far, but I am wondering if this storm has our name on it. I just read the 11 PM discussion. What is so dreaded about a pinhole eye?
Thanks
| bobbutts |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:01 PM |
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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Quote:
HAS ANYONE TAKEN A LOOK AT THE A98E MODEL? .....
Here's what I could dig up on 98E
Quote:
NHCA98E -- Climatology-based "model". Not really a model, just compares the current storm position to previous storms and "guesses" where it might go. Completely useless everywhere.
may I politely ask that you remove caps lock if you post again.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:06 PM |
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models
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They have shifted the track a bit to the left at 11pm, through the next 48 hours, then back to what the models were at earlier. I would imagine that the shift to the left is due to the WNW motion that it is currently on right now.
I am with Scott: right now, the most important thing is to see what the models come out with later on. That's when you'll see a track shift for the Florida peninsula either way. Remember, it's only Tuesday night...this isn't even supposed to make landfall until Saturday. So trying to project out a path right now of an exact landfall is impossible. Too many varying scenarios. If we're in the cone, then we are just as vulnerable as southwest Florida.
I have to say: I'm not very excited about the intensity forecast. A category 3 at landfall is going to be a major problem for whoever gets it.
Best advice? Stay alert, be prepared. In the meantime, try to get some sleep because it's going to be a rough road ahead mentally. Believe me, I know!
| D3m3NT3DVoRT3X |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:06 PM |
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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dennis phillips on abc is sticking to his guns an the left side of the channel .... and he was talking about the 2 lows if they dont join together he doesnt feel like it will be enough to push wilma south
| JG |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:08 PM |
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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Quote:
dennis phillips on abc is sticking to his guns an the left side of the channel .... and he was talking about the 2 lows if they dont join together he doesnt feel like it will be enough to push wilma south
I saw the same thing and I wonder; does anyone have some good graphical model presentations (links please) of the rest of the U.S. so those of us in the "CONE" can see if Dennis has a legit concern. I would like to see the projected positions of these lows...
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:09 PM |
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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Whats Dennis Phillips track record? Isnt he the one who said Charlie was going to make a right hook?
| The Force 2005 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:12 PM |
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Re: 11PM Updates
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From Accuweather:
Hurricane Wilma has rapidly gained strength since being upgraded to hurricane status Tuesday morning. The 12th hurricane of the 2005 season is now at Category 2 strength, and Accuweather.com forecasters say it will continue to intensify, gaining Category 3 strength by Wednesday morning. Taking advantage of ideal conditions for intensification, Wilma is expected to become a Category 4 storm by late Wednesday, with the potential for Category 5 strength by late Thursday.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:13 PM |
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models
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The "dreaded" pinhole eye means this is a very strong storm...the tighter the eye, the stronger. You don't want a hurricane bearing down on you with a "pinhole eye".
Actually, you don't want a hurricane bearing down on you with ANY kind of eye.
Now I'm going to hit the sack and get some rest. We all have plenty of time to watch this. If, however, you are in "the cone", I hope that you are making preparations or that they have already been completed. A storm this big threatening to make landfall as a Cat 3 is going to cause of lot of people to be out and about tomorrow. And it ain't gonna be pretty.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:14 PM |
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models
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Yes it is, but the 37gig usually shows the eye better...
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:17 PM |
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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Go to NOAA.gov and look for Satellites. Then click on them and you will see what he's talking about. He's got a pretty good track record. He doesn't really try to hype things up; he pretty much tells it like he sees it.
And yes, he was the one who predicted the right hand turn that Charley took. He didn't see it as a wobble, and he was correct.
He can be a little cocky sometimes, but that doesn't mean he doesn't know what he' s talking about. Personally, I prefer a local met who is willing to tell it like it is, not to stick solely to the discussions.
Heck, I could do that!
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:21 PM |
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models
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Quote:
in "the cone", I hope that you are making preparations or that they have already been completed. A storm this big threatening to make landfall as a Cat 3 is going to cause of lot of people to be out and about tomorrow. And it ain't gonna be pretty.
I have NEVER seen bright white on a water vapor loop before, yet it was there in the 0115z image of Wilma - and lots of it. Not as much in the 0145z image but still some. Almost looks like it is moving south of west again. I keep thinking of Mitch. Same great satellite presentation... same basic location... and same basic computer model forecast. It made landfall in Honduras. Anyway... the water vapor loop DOES show some moisture streaming off Wilma to the north, which could indicate that a turn will ultimately occur.. or could just be a sign of incredible outflow which would mean who knows what we'll wake up to intensity-wise.
ETA: I just zoomed into the IR loop and it makes me dizzy. The eye moves west, south, and then north. What a wobbler!
| ChessieStorm |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:26 PM |
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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Quote:
Whats Dennis Phillips track record? Isnt he the one who said Charlie was going to make a right hook?
Dennis only said Charley would hit the Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda area after the the storm began making a turn to the right around 1 p.m.. He didn't predict that turn until it actually happened, while most said Charley was wobbling, Dennis said no it is turning.
Actually Channel 8's met predicted a Punta Gorda landfall early that morning and before Charley turned according to the Viper technology he was using.
I like watching Dennis and was watching today (and tonigh), but after Charley he gloated too much on how he said it would affect the areas it eventually affected.
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:26 PM |
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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Dennis has said again. He says on his latest forecast that if wilma comes up the west side of the yucatan channel she will go further north. if she goes through on the east side, she will go to the south. He talked about the two lows again and how he doesnt see the two combining and he feels the storm will come up the west side of channel and head further north toward central florida. I hope he gets this one wrong this time.
| ChessieStorm |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:32 PM |
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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Quote:
Dennis has said again. He says on his latest forecast that if wilma comes up the west side of the yucatan channel she will go further north. if she goes through on the east side, she will go to the south. He talked about the two lows again and how he doesnt see the two combining and he feels the storm will come up the west side of channel and head further north toward central florida. I hope he gets this one wrong this time.
I don't see those two ULL's combining. The one moving out of the 4 corners is too far ahead of the northwest Pacific ULL.
The question will be how much does the southern Rockies ULL erode the high pressure and affect the winds out ahead of it to pull Wilma north/northeastward.
| Multi-Decadal Signal |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:40 PM |
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models
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FORECASTER BEVEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.8N 82.1W 95 KT
12HR VT 19/1200Z 17.2N 83.1W 110 KT
24HR VT 20/0000Z 18.1N 84.2W 125 KT
36HR VT 20/1200Z 19.2N 85.0W 125 KT
48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.4N 85.5W 125 KT
72HR VT 22/0000Z 23.0N 85.5W 115 KT
*96HR VT 23/0000Z 26.0N 81.0W 90 KT...INLAND****
120HR VT 24/0000Z 33.0N 72.0W 75 KT
$$
11:00 has eye right over my castle @ 96 hours!!
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:41 PM |
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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Well he also just said he thinks punta Gorda so don't make it sound like he said tampa or above tampa he said in fact he feels like it maybe punta Gorda.
With that said he has been wrong before and like everyone else its all conjecture till the cone is real small and the storm is a day or less from hitting.
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:42 PM |
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models
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I like this animation the best. The last frame looks like a perfect blue eye.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI2_ir_loop.gif
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:46 PM |
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Re: Earlier (18Z) Models
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Hey, Wilma is going to go right over buoy 42056 tomorrow. If it stays running imagine the waves we'll see.
Note: also the eye can now be seen on visible sat image.
| flacameraman |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:47 PM |
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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I am just curious if anyone knows when, and where watches or warnings may be posted
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:48 PM |
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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He said punta gorda,but at the end of his discussion he pointed out that if the storm went to the western end of yucatan channel that it would be more of a central florida problem. I did not say tampa at anytime. Dont put words where they are not. I am not a wishcaster. I really hope they are all wrong and it goes on out further south and out to sea. I was just stating what our local met had said. nothing more.
| mommy21 |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:49 PM |
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Re: Possibly off topic, but concerned none the less
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Hi...
I just had my second at the beginning of hurricane season and had the same questions (also high risk).
Make sure you contact your OB and follow any instructions given by them.
Have your OB give you a copy of your file to keep with you if it should be needed.
Have PLENTY of water on hand, dehydration can cause contractions/pre-term labor.
If you are on any meds to stop contractions, make sure you have the RX filled and within reach.
And of course follow the normal hurricane precautions.
God Bless,
Fellow Orlando Mommy
| ChessieStorm |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:50 PM |
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Re: Wilma Becomes Season's 12th Hurricane
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Quote:
Well he also just said he thinks punta Gorda so don't make it sound like he said tampa or above tampa he said in fact he feels like it maybe punta Gorda.
With that said he has been wrong before and like everyone else its all conjecture till the cone is real small and the storm is a day or less from hitting.
I know this isn't a message board, but I didn't say he said Tampa or northward, he said tonight Punta Gorda and points south IFit stays on the east side of the Yucitan Channel.
If it is westward, it could affect the Bay area more.
Right now I'm just waiting and getting prepared just in case.
| DJINFLA |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:50 PM |
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Stupid question. . .
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OK, here's the stupid question of the day. Forgive me, but I'm still learning. Lake Okeechobee is pretty darned big. What type of impact (if any) would it have on Wilma if it were to cross right over it?
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:56 PM |
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Re: Stupid question. . .
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Well,I will say this for the record,This one scares me.I do not like what the models are showing and I do not like what the NHC is saying.Looks like this will be much much worse for my area than Katrina.There will be alot of stress around here the next few days.
| flacameraman |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Oct 18 2005 11:57 PM |
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Re: Stupid question. . .
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There are no stupid questions, but my uneducated guess is that it would not have much impact at all, but the storm would stir it up mightily. There was a hurricane in the late twenties, that killed several thousand in the Belle Glade area, due to flooding. Because of that, they built the Herbert Hoover dike around it
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:01 AM |
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Re: Stupid question. . .
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I believe you are right it doesnt affect it too much. But i would think that it would slow weakening down just being over water. But not much, I think a met explained a while back that it was because the lake is so shallow it wouldnt make that big of an effect. I think i have read that here before, but could be wrong.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:04 AM |
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Re: Stupid question. . .
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An early look at the 00z GFS seems to indicate perhaps a more northerly track than previously indicated. In 66 hrs storm WSW of where the 18z run had it.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/fp1_066.shtml
Will be very interested to see the end of this run. If the track does shift north a bit, perhaps Wilma will be another storm the GFDL nails.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:05 AM |
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Re: Stupid question. . .
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and that is not ture that if it goes to the west more that it will go to central Florida as that is only his conjecture.If you look at some of the models they have it going right to the coast of the Yucatan then a sharp east turn so just because it goes more west does not 100% mean it will go more north just his opinion.Which by the way he has been wrong before he is not God.
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:05 AM |
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00Z GFS
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The GFS is in out to day 4 so far, looks as if it is taking Wilma more to the western side of the Yucatan Channel. Check it out here
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/index_slp_l_loop.shtml
hmm, frame 14 and 15 there look like thats a pretty sharp eastward turn.
| weatherwatcher2 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:06 AM |
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Re: Stupid question. . .
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web page
| ChessieStorm |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:08 AM |
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Re: Stupid question. . .
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Quote:
OK, here's the stupid question of the day. Forgive me, but I'm still learning. Lake Okeechobee is pretty darned big. What type of impact (if any) would it have on Wilma if it were to cross right over it?
Here are some sites on that storm to help you read about what damage was done. At one point that storm had winds of 160 mph before it hit.
Link #1: http://www2.sptimes.com/weather/HG.2.html
Link #2: http://www.tommymarkham.com/Hurricane/AListPage.htm
Wilma would have to be Cat 4-5 to cause the damage that was done in 1928, but they have done some things around the Lake since then to keep this sort of event from happening again. Only time will tell if that holds true.
Wilma will be weakening as she approaches the coast. It'll probably still be a major storm, but not Cat. 4-5 (at least I hope not)
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:10 AM |
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Re: Stupid question. . .
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This is not the place to argue this out. You got a problem with me, pm me. I am ending this nowhere nonsense now.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:13 AM |
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Re: Stupid question. . .
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you know i was about to say something....thank you so much dolfin...i appreciate it...afterall dennis phillips is a meteorologist....and i have faith in his prediction and explanations....well im packing my overnight bag tommorrow just in case....everyone have a great night and keep us updated...stay safe
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:14 AM |
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Re: Stupid question. . .
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Quote:
An early look at the 00z GFS seems to indicate perhaps a more northerly track than previously indicated. In 66 hrs storm WSW of where the 18z run had it.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/fp1_066.shtml
Will be very interested to see the end of this run. If the track does shift north a bit, perhaps Wilma will be another storm the GFDL nails.
the last few frames at 84 hours takes it to south florida and does not move it up as of yet.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:15 AM |
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Re: 00Z GFS
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I think it is important not to get too sold on the idea of Wilma moving further north in the long term if it moves further west in the short term. The features that are steering it now are not the same as the feature that will potentially turn it NE. The sharpness of the digging trough will affect whether the deep layer steering flow becomes SW or more WSW. The short-term motion likely has little to do with how that will turn out. If it moves more west and less north than expected in the short-term, that could actually make it more likely to affact areas further south, depending on how things turn out.
The recon plane should be into the center of Wilma within the hour. It'll be interesting to see what it finds. While the cloud pattern is not quite as symmetric as earlier, it still continues with exceptionally deep convection in all quadrants with a small, well-defined eye. The pressure should be substantially lower than the last report, and may even be shockingly lower.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:19 AM |
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Re: 00Z GFS
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Quote:
The pressure should be substantially lower than the last report
I agree...she clearly has a Cat 4 signature on satellite.
| Big Red Machine |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:19 AM |
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Re: Stupid question. . .
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/fp1_102.shtml
00z GFS landfall point is maybe just a hair further north than 18z. Will be interesting to see if it trends northward tomorrow or not. This run also brings Wilma in as a strong system, some tightly packed isobars. Also slows the storm down considerable with landfall in about 102 hrs, versus land fall in 90 hrs (which was was 18z showed).
Interesting. Will certainly keep an eye on it tomorrow. Still feel that the models are wrong in terms of the trough, I expect a more NNE than ENE movement across the peninsula, but will have to wait and see if that bears out.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:21 AM |
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Re: Stupid question. . .
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The GFS is only one of the models. . So we shall what the concensus is later. Also keep in mind that we are still far out and many things can happen and scenario will unfold soon enough.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:25 AM |
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Re: Stupid question. . .
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Quote:
OK, here's the stupid question of the day. Forgive me, but I'm still learning. Lake Okeechobee is pretty darned big. What type of impact (if any) would it have on Wilma if it were to cross right over it?
Could be dreadful I'm afraid... In 1928 there was a great hurricane; in fact, the first ever official Category 5 hurricane. ...It was also known as the "San Felipe Segundo Hurricane". Anyway, when it made landfall in Palm Beach County it was a Category 4 hurricane. 929 mb and winds "in excess" of 150 mph! Damage along the coastline from the heavy winds and 10-foot storm surge was catastrophic; however the area was only sparsely inhabited at the time.
...Insland the storm crossed the lake...ah...with winds measured on the ground at around 140 mph. Yeah. The low pressure and south-blowing wind caused a storm surge and the resulting flood covered hundreds of square miles with water that in some places was over 20 feet deep. Houses were floated off of their foundations and dashed to pieces against any obstacle they encountered. Most survivors and bodies were washed out into the Everglades where many were never found. As the rear eyewall passed over the area the flood reversed itself, breaking the dikes along the northern coast of the lake and causing a similar but smaller flood.
Now, I wouldn't say this to frighten anyone but sometimes the reality of a situation is paramount. In addition, the dimensions of such a catastrophe are not impossible with Wilma, though we never wish such on anyone! Moreover, Wilma is a going to be much massive in aerial coverage by the time she gets to Florida, because as always...these storms expand as they evolve and also gain latitude... It is important not to focus on the pin point eye. Bottom line....I got a bad feeling here.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:26 AM |
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Re: Stupid question. . .
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odd, it looks like the GFS brings it really hard hard right turn south of the keys?
I'm not sure I'm buying that right now.... but
we'll see
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:30 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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I do think that the first eyewall cycle will probably help to expand out the inner core of the system, whenever that occurs. My thinking is probably sometime tomorrow afternoon. As it heads up the coast, it'll really expand...but the thought of hurricane-force winds 300mi from the center is not very enticing. Unfortunately, it's also a real possibility, depending upon the evolution of the pattern.
Starting to get worried about the potential for a cat. 5 out of this one sometime tomorrow. Cloud tops are way up there, the eye is becoming better defined on satellite imagery (i.e. clearer pinhole), and the oceanic and upper level conditions are near ideal for something major to go down. Would not be surprised to see the NHC have to issue a special advisory package before 5a, unfortunately. Dual outflow channels and upper-oceanic heat content of 140kJ/cm^2 are pretty favorable, I'd say. Not an annular storm, but another very intense one...and if it does get to cat 5, it'll be the first season in recorded history in the Atlantic to see 3 category 5 storms.
It's going to be a good test of a theory someone I respect immensely has put forth. The dry air on the periphery may prove to be a limiting factor on initial organization, particularly in terms of dry air intrusion, but once the inner core becomes established, it can actually help to supress the outer banding features and lead to a very tight inner core that can spin up in quite a hurry. Any disruption to that inner core could of course lead to pretty substantial weakening, but as long as it maintains itself, the potential is there for intensification.
We'll have recon in a little while to tell us where the storm is at intensity-wise right now. Would not be surprised to see another major pressure fall -- even into the 920s. Better bet is something in the 930s with a very tight wind maximum. How low it gets depends upon the timing of the first eyewall cycle. Again, I do not anticipate a category 5 (or even 4) hurricane at landfall in Florida -- but I do anticipate a major hurricane making landfall somewhere in SW Florida later this week.
| ralphfl |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:36 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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clark i agree with you on all fronts with this storm.As we go on in time the cone will get smaller and we will get a idea of where it is going.
it's nice to hear someone with with logic rather then conjecture thanks.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:43 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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Quote:
I do think that the first eyewall cycle will probably help to expand out the inner core of the system, whenever that occurs. My thinking is probably sometime tomorrow afternoon. As it heads up the coast, it'll really expand...but the thought of hurricane-force winds 300mi from the center is not very enticing. Unfortunately, it's also a real possibility, depending upon the evolution of the pattern.
Starting to get worried about the potential for a cat. 5 out of this one sometime tomorrow. Cloud tops are way up there, the eye is becoming better defined on satellite imagery (i.e. clearer pinhole), and the oceanic and upper level conditions are near ideal for something major to go down. Would not be surprised to see the NHC have to issue a special advisory package before 5a, unfortunately. Dual outflow channels and upper-oceanic heat content of 140kJ/cm^2 are pretty favorable, I'd say. Not an annular storm, but another very intense one...and if it does get to cat 5, it'll be the first season in recorded history in the Atlantic to see 3 category 5 storms.
It's going to be a good test of a theory someone I respect immensely has put forth. The dry air on the periphery may prove to be a limiting factor on initial organization, particularly in terms of dry air intrusion, but once the inner core becomes established, it can actually help to supress the outer banding features and lead to a very tight inner core that can spin up in quite a hurry. Any disruption to that inner core could of course lead to pretty substantial weakening, but as long as it maintains itself, the potential is there for intensification.
We'll have recon in a little while to tell us where the storm is at intensity-wise right now. Would not be surprised to see another major pressure fall -- even into the 920s. Better bet is something in the 930s with a very tight wind maximum. How low it gets depends upon the timing of the first eyewall cycle. Again, I do not anticipate a category 5 (or even 4) hurricane at landfall in Florida -- but I do anticipate a major hurricane making landfall somewhere in SW Florida later this week.
Some interesting observations regarding the models:
GFDL,
12z position at 126 hours: 74W/32N
18z position at 114 hours: 75.5W/32.25N
…at first glance I too would be inclined to suggest that although this represents a left shift once leaving Florida, it may be too subtle to distinguish any significance. However, it is the overall synopsis from the Great Lakes to NNE of New England that may lend a clue.
…Which requires observing the Global models.. They have been trending deeper with trough amplification in near the upper Ohio Valley to where we now have a -3SD anomaly centered on PA, which also has an embedded potent s/w negatively tilted (ECM 12z run). This is interesting for me after Wilma crosses Florida.. Another meteorologist who uses this site and I were hammering out the details and it appeared to us that the veering components of the winds near and off-shore the East Coast are not etched in stoned and if anything have been trending more S in time… In fact, the 12z ECM actually fully captures Wilma and rockets her N as a transitioning hybrid monster, crossing her over Cape Cod, Down East Maine, to a 952mb low N of Caribou. … That would be a huge problem for SE Massachusetts and Down East Maine in the form of a odd-ball Nor’easter from heck! It’s an unusual scenario, admittedly, but not too implausible at this time. What is also lending confidence is that this was intuitively plausible for basic synoptic reasoning (also incorporating teleconnectors) a few day ago, so seeing a few whiffs of model guidance trending this way is a bit alarming to say the least.
I also agree with your cat-5 intimation: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg
…Having said that I am sure many of you are aware that the dropsondes for synoptic sampling have taking place and are expected to be initialized in the data suite in tonight’s 00z run – do out any moment.. It will be interesting to see how the samples affect the runs; however, they are obviously not intended to indicated anything about how Wilma interacts with the westerlies, just that she may end up with a greater left component near Florida … Which of course would then have to be conserved farther N should the trough in question continue to trend deeper, veering winds more S.
| superfly |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:49 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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0431. 1656N 08155W 01540 5580 115 154 174 174 162 01006 0000000100
This is a cat 5 folks. 154kts sustained FL with gusts to 162kts.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:50 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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000
URNT12 KNHC 190446
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 19/04:32:40Z
B. 16 deg 52 min N
081 deg 56 min W
C. 850 mb 516 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 116 deg 162 kt
G. 15 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 901 mb
I. 17 C/ 1537 m
J. 26 C/ 1557 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C4
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 07
MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:51 AM |
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Unreal
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Sorry for the one line post.Wilma becomes a cane in the morning & bombs by evening?!?!?
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:52 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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How many times in history as a hurricane gone from tropical storm strength to category 5 in a 24 hour period? Not sure if this is officially at that rank - it's likely they'll call her a cat 4.. 90% conversion to the surface is a cat 5 however.
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:52 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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Quote:
Iif it does get to cat 5, it'll be the first season in recorded history in the Atlantic to see 3 category 5 storms.
I thought so...but wasn't sure.
Practically all day I've been convinced Wilma will get to Cat 5 (but not today!). I just found out from reading Steve Gregory's update that the water temps in that area of the Caribbean are actually still a couple of degrees warmer than the SSTs, below the surface. I was glad to see this because as I posted early this morning, I expected Wilma to hit the warm deep water starting Thursday (then pulled that back to Wed aft/evng as her speed increased) on through Friday. I was wondering where I'd gone wrong reading the HHC map, because I didn't expect Cat 4/5 this evng. Steve, while being a litle behind the eight ball on this one (he's been busy with a family emergency), nevertheless managed to provide, as he almost always does, some interesting and relevant piece of information. Anyway that explains the rapid intensification tonight.
The dry air on the periphery may prove to be a limiting factor on initial organization, particularly in terms of dry air intrusion, but once the inner core becomes established, it can actually help to supress the outer banding features and lead to a very tight inner core that can spin up in quite a hurry.
I felt something along these lines earlier in the evng when I posted that the feeder bands, being partially separated by the dry air from the center convection, were more easily being as I thought of it "sloughed off" to leave the pure central convective core. I've seen several times now where the irregular or banding features are let go and separated from the central rounded core, as part of the intensification process.
But I also noticed that even in the purest smoothest central core visual sat images, such as Katrina's when her winds were at their peak, the seeds of the original spiral bands are still somehow maintained, because when weakening occurs, then the consistency of the CDO falls away and spiral banding again becomes evident (as could be seen with Katrina once the dry air and land started having an affect, before LA landfall).
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:55 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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When I saw the extrap 901 my jaw dropped.
I expected 920s but didn't have the nerve to post that...cautiously said the signature was a Cat 4, didn't have the nerve to post Cat 5.
TS to Cat 5 in 18 hours.
Well will someone do the math and find out how long it took to drop from 954 to 901 while I try to regain composure?
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:56 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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Wow, 53mb drop in 5 hours... that must be some kind of record.
I would expect NHC to upgrade to cat 5, assuming they haven't all passed out from astonishment.
| harmlc.ath.cx |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:57 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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Just over 4 hours I believe. That is simply amazing.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:58 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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I can't believe they did the recon fix at 850mb, considering the 850mb height was only a little over 500m. 1500 feet is pushing it as far as flying around in an intense hurricane.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:58 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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OMG 175kts now at 1245am,,4mile eye??? Even for me thats incredible and never seen before.... that much of a pressure drop in 12 hrs of about 70mbs and winds at the surface near 160mph.....
You never know how much a pressure is unless the plane happens to go in at the right time....so such storms in the past there were near this level,,we only knew what the recon and sat said,,..I guess the plane went in the right time..
Anyways the 0z models are in and pretty much the same,,,,Nogaps inland near Sarasota...GFS Naples,, Same for CMC ( but that model has odd shifts in it ) Ill tend to see the GFDL...New data went into the runs,,,guess that helped out during the first 48hrs,, so we know that it will move close to Cancun,,,then when the next flight goes in again tomorrow afternoon,,,tomorrow nights 0z runs will be important for the Gulf movement..
Thing on the GFS though,,,its really slow especially during the 60-84hr time frame,,,,I think it will go slightly further N if it does go near Cancun like the models show the first 60 hrs,....
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 12:59 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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Quote:
Just over 4 hours I believe. That is simply amazing.
Well that's the record for this season.
I have to go back to my (scribbled) notes but I believe 10mb per hour for several hours was the previous record (Rita).
*******
Guess Rita didn't even drop that fast. These were my handwritten notes for Rita:
988 5am Tue
956 5am Wed
934 11am Wed
928 12 noon
914 2:30p
904 4:16p
898 6pm
And...did I read that right, that the eye is now only 4mn in diameter? I'm glad the recon caught this one because it is sure to be short-lived.
| BriahH |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 01:00 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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Jaws dropping with the pressure all around. This seems to be unprecedented in terms of a pressure drop and I say that in a season of unprecedented pressure drops from hell. It seems unreal. Is Wilma over one of those eddies we've heard so much about? Do any of you savants have data on these eddies?
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 01:02 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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hyper bomb... If she get to such prominence it will be difficult for me to buy that subtle influence in the way the trough first begins to influence her steering field will be all that affectual in actually inducing recurvature that quickly.. Trust me, Wilma will be creating her own environment during the day on Wednesday, as soon as the surrounding atmosphere begins to respond to her bombogenisis intensity curve. (There's a lag time for rapid cyclogenisis of any kind with peripheral). Anyway, she's going to have a truly massive circulation envelopement and I don't think the residual dry air will have as much a adverse affect on her because a) I've noticed that the water vapor imagery is moistening things up nw and b) the fact that she's pretty much mostly cdo is going to "perhaps" mean that she protected by dry air because of distance...
gettin' a bad feeling.
| FlaMommy |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 01:02 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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does the 175 knts mean thats how fast the winds are or what? is it a category 5 storm already? if so OMG i cant believe my eyes...im absolutely amazed and scared...to be honest....
| dave foster |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 01:03 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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Are we sure that really is 154kts sustained? I make that 176mph which is higher than Rita made.
Looks like Wilma 'bounced' off the Honduras coast and is now heading due north.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 01:08 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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So in english what does that mean Typhoon ?
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 01:08 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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Dropsonde in the NE eyewall measured a surface pressure of 943 mb. A 42 mb difference between the eye and eyewall would be quite extreme, so there may be a QC issue on the surface pressure (which was extrapolated). On the other hand, the observed wind speeds are consistent with a storm of that intensity.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 01:09 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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You still have to take 154kts *.9 and that is the extrapolated surface wind speed - that you convert to mph gives around 160 - 165...but who's quibbling...those are terrifying numbers!
| Myles |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 01:10 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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Take a look at the atlantic view of things. You can see how Wilma went from a west loaded weak hurricane to this beast of a storm that is now a cat 5. Its an amazing thing to watch really, just amazing...
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 01:10 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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Updated advisory just raised the winds to 130 knots sustained (150 mph). A new forecast has been issued as well, mainly to reflect the increase in intensity.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 01:12 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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Quote:
Updated advisory just raised the winds to 130 knots sustained (150 mph). A new forecast has been issued as well, mainly to reflect the increase in intensity.
...That's what I thought.. I knew they would give this Cat 4 status...just to chap our hinies..
| Margie |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 01:14 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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Here's something else I just noticed going back and looking at the wv loop...over the last five or six frames you can see the humidity clearing out of the eye, as the color changes down through the spectrum from red to grey-white.
Notice they kept the intensity at Cat 4 because of the winds. A tersely written special disc. I assume the plane will be sticking around to measure any record low central pressures, and to see if winds spin up to match the pressure. Guess the ERC is going to come hard on the heels of this intensification phase. Can hardly believe the eye went from 7 to 4nm. Is it even possible for it to get any smaller? Possibly that is why the winds cannot spin up as they normally would?
| FelixPuntaGorda |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 01:15 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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I hope this isn't the wrong place to ask this, but I'd like some information on storm surge with a Cat 4/5. I know about being on the "good" side vs "bad" side. I learned a lot about surge from Katrina. So my question is, does the surge stay with the storm or does it expand out, like dropping a rock into a pond? What are the surge implications at the point of the hard right turn?
In other words, even if you're on the 'good' side, do you still have to worry about surge ahead of the storm?
Thanks.
--Fay
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 01:15 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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130 knots is the by-the-book 20% reduction of 850mb winds, which were reported at 162 kts in the NE quadrant. I'm surprised they went ahead and issued an official update to the forecast, since stronger winds may exist in the NW quadrant, which has not been sampled yet.
| harmlc.ath.cx |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 01:16 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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At 5:00 it was at 80 mph sustained, so in about 8 1/2 hours it nearly doubled its sustained winds.
| Lake Toho - Kissimmee |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 01:18 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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Well now starts the wobbles and the its going north, its going south, its going just south of west but north conversations.. LOL.. BTW: Its now wobbled slightly north of the forecast points and appears to have a fairly NW Component.
| Tazmanian93 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 01:18 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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Evening all, I walk away for a couple of hours and I am in total amazement. INCREDIBLE
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 01:19 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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Quote:
So in english what does that mean Typhoon ?
...In other words... hurricanes often produce a ring a few hundred naut miles from their cores which is marked by subsidence and a surface higher pressure reflection... The more intense the hurricane, the more prominent this type of "moating" becomes..
"Typhoon Tip" in the Pacific Ocean, when combinging all factors used to gauge hurricanes, ranks number 1 as the most intense tropical cyclone on record. On October 12, 1979 he (or she) had winds gusting as high as 190 mph and the central pressure came down to 870 mb! The size of the circulation around Typhoon Tip was approximately 1350 miles (2174 km) across. If placed over the continental U.S., it would almost cover the western half of the country. This is the most profound example I can think of to elucidate the nature of "creating own environment"... Not that Wilma will ever be a Typhoon Tip, but, sufficed to say, a storm of that magnitude is a demonstrative example of how so much momentum and physics starts to dictate its surroundings...
Beyond this example, which I'm sure you can find on line, the discussion gets really complex with physics to described why such mega amounts of ascending air tend to be counter-balanced by descending air, at scales larger then meso; which tend to mitigate outside influences and effectively protecting the core.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 01:27 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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Quote:
I hope this isn't the wrong place to ask this, but I'd like some information on storm surge with a Cat 4/5. I know about being on the "good" side vs "bad" side. I learned a lot about surge from Katrina. So my question is, does the surge stay with the storm or does it expand out, like dropping a rock into a pond? What are the surge implications at the point of the hard right turn?
In other words, even if you're on the 'good' side, do you still have to worry about surge ahead of the storm?
Thanks.
--Fay
Storm surge varies with the topographical layout of the near shore marine bottom.. If you have a sharp declination in oceanic depth very close to the shore, the storm surge of a cat 4 hurricane (for example) won't be as inland inundating as one that occurs where there is a long distance of shallow water... The reason is that the mass carried along with the storm surge in shallow water does not have as readily, a means to disperse before impacting elevations higher than absolute sea-lvl.
The point is, much goes into the calculations for storm surge. There are models on line now specifically designed to calculated surge potentials per wind speed, for various locations.. I'm not a regular user of those products, though, so you'll have to do a little research to find them.
There are some general guidlines however, that can be used for categories of storms and their counterpart surges:
Category One Hurricane:
Winds 74-95 mph (64-82 kt or 119-153 km/hr). Storm surge generally 4-5 ft above normal.
Category Two Hurricane:
Winds 96-110 mph (83-95 kt or 154-177 km/hr). Storm surge generally 6-8 feet above normal.
Category Three Hurricane:
Winds 111-130 mph (96-113 kt or 178-209 km/hr). Storm surge generally 9-12 ft above normal.
Category Four Hurricane:
Winds 131-155 mph (114-135 kt or 210-249 km/hr). Storm surge generally 13-18 ft above normal.
Category Five Hurricane:
Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr). Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal.
...These values are then augmented based on particular incidences of coastlines being impacted...
Oh, and to answer your question - the "good side" is always better... If a storm has a 20ft surge, they are not meaning the area with offshore wind components...they are talking about areas in the eyewall where the winds are normal to the coast - the surge values tend to drop off considerably outside the eyewall, then taper more gradually in the tropical storm force areas..
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 01:28 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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Quote:
130 knots is the by-the-book 20% reduction of 850mb winds, which were reported at 162 kts in the NE quadrant. I'm surprised they went ahead and issued an official update to the forecast, since stronger winds may exist in the NW quadrant, which has not been sampled yet.
yeah...sorry... I was just reading the vortex message more closely...I had it in my head that they were talking about a lower altitude...
| evergladesangler |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 01:55 AM |
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Re: Another Look
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Any chance it's actually good that it reached this strength so quickly? Or can these pinhole storms sustain this strength for long periods of time?
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 06:00 AM |
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HOLY CRAP!!!
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IT NOW HAS THE LOWEST PRESSURE EVER RECORDED. Unbelievable.
| collegemom |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Oct 19 2005 06:50 AM |
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Re: HOLY CRAP!!!
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Incredible storm. I sure wouldn't have believed we would be here again.
God bless and good luck to anyone nearby.
And as Fred would so aptly say.......WWWWIIIIIILLLLLLMMMMAAAA!!!!!!!!!