MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Oct 22 2005 06:34 AM
Tropical Depression 25 Forms While Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Affect Cancun

10:45 am edt
Hurricane watches are now up for the Florida Keys, and may be further north along the west coast later today for Hurricane Wilma. Hurricane Wilma is forecast to near Florida as a category 1 to low 3 system during the day Monday. The forecast track hasn't changed since the prior advisory. Mandatory Evacuations of the Florida Keys are now in affect as of this morning. Everyone in the cone of uncertainty needs to watch this system, Wilma has a chance to have a large windfield as it approaches, and storm surge may be an issue along parts of the western Florida peninsula coast. Do not focus on a specific landfall point.

Collier county (Naples area) also has asked for evacuations in certain areas. See the county websites below or local officials media outlets there for more information.

Tropical Storm warnings are up for Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Hati) and watches are up for the Southeastern Bahamas for TD#25.

9:30 AM edt
Tropical Depression 25 has formed in the Eastern Caribbean. Advisories are likely to begin at 11AM.



If it were to become a tropical storm (which is fairly likely) it would be called Alpha since the regular list of storm names for the year has been exhausted. Currently it looks like it will not affect the US, but will affect Hispaniola.

2005 is truly a record breaking year for tropical cyclones in the Atlantic in a variety of ways.

Wilma is still over the extreme northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. The situation setting up ahead of it may bring a large area under tropical storm force winds for Florida, the motion of the storm combined with the pressure gradient may create a unique situation over Florida regardless of where the actual system makes landfall. (although this still has an impact for the highest winds)

More to come later

Discussion topic for TD#25

Original Update
Cancun is getting nearly the worst combination of hurricane affects that it could possibly get. The storm is just to the south of it, moving slowly or not at all as a strong Category 3, the position for that coast brings the worst of the surge onto Cancun. (Which won't be as dramatic as Missippi during the Katrina because of the deeper sea floor along the Caribbean, but will still be quite bad)

However, the length of time it will be facing these conditions is unreal. Things will get weakend and eventually break from this prolonged exposure. Structures that normally would survive an hour of these type of conditions may fail. In general Cancun is not very pleasant today. Along the main hotel row, storm surge flooding has been reported as reaching into the lagoon.



Cancun could be in conditions like this all day, the storm surge could remain there all day until the eye passes. Playa del Carmen has been within the eye of the system for hours. A reporting station near Cancun has been reporting 90MPH or higher sustained winds for 9 hours.

Beyond this the forecast track has not changed as much, but the intensity may lower some. The forecast still is for a category 2 system making landfall.

More to come as is known.

Report Conditions from Wilma in your area here
Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.


(full size)
Image courtesy SkeetobiteWeather.com Click here for full size image
Comments/Feedback on the maps look here.


Event Related Links

Stormcarib reports from Cozumel/Cancun (Includes Photos)
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Cancun Radar Animation (Flhurricane mirror) (Note: Radar hasn't sent a new image since 7:30 it will still continue to check, but the radar may be down due to Wilma)

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar


Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News

Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Wilma approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is heading toward South Florida see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

WebCams
Royal Resorts Webcams in Cancun
The Royal Sands Animated WebCam (Flhurricane Mirrored)

Reply and let us know of other links.


Wilma

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of Wilma - Static Image
Wilma Microwave Imagery Animation
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots
cimss page

TD#25

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic of TD#25
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of TD#25 - Static Image



ILoveflorida
(Registered User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 06:49 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

In the previous thread, there was a discussion on tornadoes . It was noted a "Train" sound is heard when one is approaching.
This is not always the case. Last year, during Frances we had a small twister come through our property, that had no train sound, nor was it picked up by Noaa or radar.
We knew of the risk by listening to our weather radio when everything else was down. It's important to follow what the officials say. And in times like these, don't forget to check on your neighbors.


Rdietch
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 07:41 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

The local Paper then other day said there could be a bank of them as the front comes down so i was more worried about them then the storm.I hate to wish rain on anyone or Bad luck but i hope that thing rots right where it is for 24 hours yet.

Rdietch
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 07:48 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Very simple Forcast the longer its over Land the more south it goes.

With this in mind i have not seen much movement lets hope it stays that way for awhile.


Geoff
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 07:50 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Also, don't forget about the equally dangerous microbursts that hurricanes spawn as well.

Quote:

In the previous thread, there was a discussion on tornadoes . It was noted a "Train" sound is heard when one is approaching.
This is not always the case. Last year, during Frances we had a small twister come through our property, that had no train sound, nor was it picked up by Noaa or radar.
We knew of the risk by listening to our weather radio when everything else was down. It's important to follow what the officials say. And in times like these, don't forget to check on your neighbors.




Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Oct 22 2005 07:58 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Quote:

Very simple Forcast the longer its over Land the more south it goes.
With this in mind i have not seen much movement lets hope it stays that way for awhile.




Looking at the IR loop.. the increasingly disorganized eye is moving.... albeit at a snail's pace. Looks like it will emerge off the Yucatan into the GOM right on the forecast track, but perhaps a few hours earlier than the forecast (note: I say perhaps, but I doubt it).

Update: Confirmed by NHC... WIlma is drifting northward as of the 8am advisory. Storm is located 10 miles WSW of Cancun. Winds are down to 120mph.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:02 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

I was just looking at a composite sattelite. I know it is not a complete picture but is good. I saw an optical illusion of another circulation center in the outflow of the cane north and off in the gulf. Is it any possibility that another center of circulation could form in the outflow if the current center continues to weaken over land? It is not something I am saying will happen, but a question of could it happen, or are the dynamics not there?

Rdietch
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:05 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Drifting is the word they use so about what you said.At 8am Drifting.

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:09 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Also of note: the local forecaster here said that as Wilma approaches and *if* the cold front comes in where it is supposed to, the windfield will expand well north of where it makes landfall; some TS force winds could be felt along with heavy batches of rain on Monday. Imbedded in those could be very strong T-storms, so our weather here is not going to be pleasant. Of course, it will be worse wherever it actually hits, but DO NOT let your guard down if you live further north than where it makes landfall.
And for pete's sake, please do NOT go outside to see if you can "see the tornado coming". Do exactly what they have instructed you to do. Been though enough of them, believe me, most of the time you WILL KNOW if you've got one coming your way.
My heart goes out to the people in Cozumel and Playa del Carmen...it is so beautiful there. Unfortunately, most of the people do not have adequate housing to survive such a beating as they are taking right now. I do know that at the hotel that I stayed at that some of the people that worked there also lived there, but I can't imagine what it must look like right now. Hopefully, their torture will end soon.


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:09 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Quote:

Drifting is the word they use so about what you said.At 8am Drifting.




Drifting what a cool word and especially fitting for a Saturday morning.
I think Wilma will "drift" it's way out into the open Atlantic.
I do think there are multi millions of dollars worth of damage to Cancun and the Hotels there.
Perhaps some new inlets formed.


nicolew
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:11 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Mandatory evacuation for all Keys residents today just announced.

12 pm - lower keys
3 pm - middle keys
6 pm - upper keys


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:12 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

That's an excellent question. Could you post the link to the composite satellite you saw?

emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:13 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

I was reading the stormcarib pleas for help. It's so sad. Honestly, I want her to get off the coast and then die. What those in the area are suffering is just tragic.

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:15 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Looks to me like she's made it over halfway across the peninsula. At her current rate of drift, the eye looks like it will start emerging over water in a couple more hours. I'd guess Wilma is slightly ahead of last nights forecast, and should emerge in reasonably good shape. Fortunately, she won't be the same storm she once was.

Only question now is the timing of the bus ride to Florida.


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:16 AM
Morning Update

Lots of important information for Florida in the 5 a.m. discussion:

1-A modest strengthening may occur once the hurricane moves back over water into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later tonight or Sunday.

2-The forecast intensity of Wilma while crossing Florida is a blend between the global models which keep an intense hurricane with 100 to 115 knots and the SHIPS model that rapidly weakens the cyclone.

3-Wilma to move on a northeast track with a significant increase in forward speed. Most of the dynamical models are in a better agreement tonight making the official track forecast more certain.

4-Wilma's wind field will probably expand as it crosses the Florida Peninsula.

5-A Hurricane Watch will likely be issued later today for portions of central and South Florida and the Florida Keys.

In summary, it looks more and more likely that a cat 1-2 hurricane will cross the Naples-West Palm Beach area very quickly on Monday with a large windfield. However, based on possible modest strengthening and the global models, a cat 3 is not out of the question.


StPeteBill
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:17 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Well here in St Pete I am only planning on brining in the hanging plants, everything else stays where it is. I honestly do not think the winds are going to be that bad here.

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:18 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp.html

Here is the link. I do realize it is an angle of light, but it sparked my question due to the long time over land of the real eye.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:20 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Actually, on WV loops it looks as though it's being tugged north, with a system from TX merging with the system in midwest that looks to be moving a little bit slower and further north. If that's the front/trough whatever it is that is supposed to pull Wilma to the SE, we have to wait and see just how far south it actually gets into GOM before we can say for sure that she will stay further south.
If Wilma EVER begins to move...and it looks like she is trying to...then we can look at all the dynamics and make an educated guesstimate of where she will eventually end up in Florida.
Hopefully, that will happen sometime TODAY, so that we all don't lose our sanity...or what's LEFT of it, LOL!


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:24 AM
Significant Tornado Threat from Miami NWS

Additional middle-level dry air associated with trough and spreading out of rather substantial wind field are just two of the factors pointing toward rather significant tornado threat for South Florida on Monday as Wilma makes landfall. Further supporting evidence that seems to be a reasonably good analog for this event was hurricane Isbell in October of 1964. She spawned perhaps a dozen tornadoes across southern portions of Florida including 4 of F2 intensity on the fujita scale.

JG
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:27 AM
Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

This may sound like an insane question, but it's been a while since I've been close to a hurricane that actually rides along an actual cold front.

Since most models and forecasts indicate that Wilma will be riding ENE to NE along the cold front which will drop down near the Tampa area, won't the impact of the warm tropical air meshing with the cold front increase the risk of numerous tornadoes? My thinking is that this is the ultimate collision with the high heat and humidity from the hurricane impacting into the front creating massive instability, primarily in the areas to the north of the storm.

I'm asking this question on every board I subscribe to so I can warn my friends and relatives to be prepared. I'm concerned because we're already set up for massive amounts of rainfall being pinched between the hurricane and the cold front at my location if all the forecasts bear out.

Thanks again to all for the great job everyone does here.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:30 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

I am no weather forecaster but, I have been looking at the early satellites and the storm looks elongated in the direction of Tampa Bay. I know that we on the west side of Florida and north of Ft Myers have been saved from the effects of the direct hit. But until they tell us this storm is going to Texas I am going to prepare as though it will be a direct hit at CAT 3. As I said last night, unless people start taking down the Halloween decorations, we are going to have a lot of flying pumpkins by Monday night.(plastic ones)

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:31 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Okay, that was a cool shot. It almost appears that what may be what's left of an eye is about to exit the northernmost tip of Yucatan soon. I'm not sure or not if there's a new eye trying to form or not.
What I did notice, however, is that if you drew a perfectly straight line from Wilma to Chicago, you will see what is tugging her northward. And I cannot see anything (at least on that view) that's going to punt her NE in any big hurry. Notice what's coming in from the west...that may be what punts Wilma. If anything, it looks like Wilma may have to wait for that system to come along.
Of course, that's just based on what I saw on that one loop. There could be others out there that show a totally different scenario and I could be completely wrong. One thing I sure hope I'm not wrong about is it coming off the coast of the Yucatan. They've had enough already.


emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:31 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

Our local weather service made that point exactly. It may be a long monday for many parts of the state.

emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:33 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Colleen, the Cancun radar was just updated and the center of circ is just south of Cancun. Everytime it updates it looks to have gotten smaller.

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?12


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:35 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

Yes, there is definitely the threat for tornadoes with these two systems combining. If they are going to issue hurricane watches/warnings somewhere along the coast, expect to see tornado watches go up with them. If anything, it will be an interesting Monday.

Geoff
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:38 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

Does it appear to anyone else that the water vapor loop is starting to show improved outflow, or do I need a cup of coffee?

JG
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:42 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

Quote:

Yes, there is definitely the threat for tornadoes with these two systems combining. If they are going to issue hurricane watches/warnings somewhere along the coast, expect to see tornado watches go up with them. If anything, it will be an interesting Monday.




The Melbourne AFD stated it clearly for me and I think that this looks like a repeat of the 1993 No Name for those of us north of the eye.

Quote:

SUN...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE CWA BEFORE STALLING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ASSOCIATED WITH
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVANCING NORTHWARD WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF
RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY COOLER
WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.
FARTHER SOUTH...PREFRONTAL WARM ADVECTION WILL STILL RESULT IN HIGHS
IN MID 80S. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY AS THE ADVANCING CYCLONE EXPLOITS THE INHERENT SHEAR ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.





Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:42 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

You mean the eye looks smaller or the system? Looking at that radar shot, I am simply amazed at how well organized it still looks! Almost looks as if the eastern most edge of the eyewall is over water, but that could be my eyes. I still think it will be close to exiting the coast earlier than thought, if only because it did not cross wnw as predicted earlier. The less land it has to go over, the less disrupted it is....but even so, for the amount of time it HAS spent on land, I'm truly amazed that it hasn't fallen apart. Of course, there aren't really any high mountains in that area, so that could be one reason.
Thanks for the link...awesome radar shot!


emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:46 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Quote:

You mean the eye looks smaller or the system? Looking at that radar shot, I am simply amazed at how well organized it still looks! Almost looks as if the eastern most edge of the eyewall is over water, but that could be my eyes. I still think it will be close to exiting the coast earlier than thought, if only because it did not cross wnw as predicted earlier. The less land it has to go over, the less disrupted it is....but even so, for the amount of time it HAS spent on land, I'm truly amazed that it hasn't fallen apart. Of course, there aren't really any high mountains in that area, so that could be one reason.
Thanks for the link...awesome radar shot!




The circ is getting smaller. In fact it's updated again and it's smaller yet. I have been watching it since 4:30 and it took a jog north but hasn't done much since. It you play the loop and really slow it down you can see it better.

Jackie


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:46 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

That's what I'm seeing also. But just to be sure, I am going to have another cup of coffee. Look at the radar shot that's on page 1 of this thread...see what I mean???

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:50 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Oh...I didn't see the loop, sorry. Well, if the circulation is getting smaller, than it could be dying over land, which would be nice! On the other hand, it may be able to keep some of its energy with all the water around it. I guess we won't know until later.

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:50 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

Oh wow! I remember that! It was very frightening in that it came at night and was so strong. It did not last long because it was moving so fast. But, if that is a taste of what this could be, All I can say is that for about 30 minutes we had the effects of a CAT 3 or 4 wind field, that left ocean salt all over power wires and they all started shorting out and it was a unholy mess. It was more memorable than the entire hurricane season last year.( in terms of suddeness and sheer wind velocity)

JG
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 08:55 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

This could be a weather scientist's dream study zone and worse nightmare all at once. Areas to the north getting more rain than areas to the east of the eye.

More damage inland than onshore due to tornadoes.

The potential apparently is there. And the No Name is what came to mind immediately. If the VIPIR model they showed on WTVT-13 this morning bears out, the worse part of the storm could be the region between Tampa and Port Charlotte as opposed to the usual areas with a landfalling storm.

All I can say about this season is just wow.


evergladesangler
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:02 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

It looks like two lows are meeting up with this loop:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10

My question, could the low that came in off the Pacific and over Mexico and TX tend to dampen how far the major low from Canada gets south as they meet up? That low from Canada is moving fairly rapidly east (as well as south).


charlottefl
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:03 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

Steve Lyons on TWC said that it appears the center is very close to exiting the Yucatan, bands around and to the east of the center are intensifying...

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:06 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

Allright...Jackie...I may be losing it...I was just watching Dr. Steve on TWC and he said that the eye is just north and west of Cancun...but that's not what we're seeing on that radar link. Does he have a different source he's looking at??? Or is he not looking at the right place???
As for the No-named storm...I lived in Jax Beach when that happened and it was the scariest thing I've ever been through. We had gusts over 110mph throughout the night, the intracoastal flooded out houses, wires snapped in half and I had a light pole from one of those big travel centers land on my car...with me in it. If that's what we're in for, I might just head down to Naples.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:06 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

This view tells it all. For any new viewers, after you get the picture, click on the center and it will enlarge. This shows all the powers in play and it is going to hurt somebody else.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconuswv.html


Lance Wilson
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:10 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

Quote:

It looks like two lows are meeting up with this loop:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10

My question, could the low that came in off the Pacific and over Mexico and TX tend to dampen how far the major low from Canada gets south as they meet up? That low from Canada is moving fairly rapidly east (as well as south).




Looking at that loop, the last few frames it stops going south. Now, there is a trailing section that is lower down, but not very much. Interesting, but I'm no MET.


KC
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:10 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

Sounds like some canine training is in order with a new command - CLOSET! Thanks for the info. We are inland Collier County and I am getting the closet ready.

Collier County Emergency Commission meeting is underway. They are predicting forward speed to escalate to 34mph as it approaches Collier County later on Sunday, with landfall predicted at 4am Monday followed by high tide at about 5:45am (not good). There are concerns about additional surge if the storm moves farther north. They are advising everyone to be secured and in place by Sunday afternoon.


emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:11 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

Colleen, I don't get it either. Does he not use the radar? I thought I remember HF or one of the other mets saying use the radar when you can so you can identify the center better. Are we that screwed up? ..LOL! CLARK, HF where are you...lol!

StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:12 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

The radar images seem to be old, or something strange has happened. Anyone know of any other radar sites?

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:14 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

Good question...I think it's all going to be a matter of timing...one thing I did notice was that the area to the west of Wilma seems to be getting pushed back, which is allowing the outflow from Wilma to expand. And it does appear as if she is just about to exit the peninsula. Hmmm...what if this whole thing reverses, and the northerly movement is faster than they are thinking and the move to the NE is slower?
Now, there's a stumper for ya.


emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:16 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

It says at the top it was updated at 8:39! That's 15 minutes. It's been updating well since I started watch this early a.m. I've done a google search for more sites but they all give the same one.

Updated Link

http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/rad%2dcanc.jpg


Southern4sure
(Weather Guru)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:17 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

I live in southern Pasco Co, just north of Tampa. This is the first I have heard about all the tornadoes and such. Now Im beginning to worry about what to expect from the two fronts meeting.

collegemom
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:20 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

Quote:

Good question...I think it's all going to be a matter of timing...one thing I did notice was that the area to the west of Wilma seems to be getting pushed back, which is allowing the outflow from Wilma to expand. And it does appear as if she is just about to exit the peninsula. Hmmm...what if this whole thing reverses, and the northerly movement is faster than they are thinking and the move to the NE is slower?
Now, there's a stumper for ya.




I don't believe these fronts are strong enough to move it east as quickly as first predicted. I see more movement north before movement east.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:22 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

What exactly do you mean, Guppie? That the cold front is not going to reach as far south as they were predicting? My eyes are tired...words work better for me right now, LOL.
Oh...and it does appear that it IS just about to exit the peninsula, does it not?


SEFL
(Registered User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:24 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Quote:

Very simple Forcast the longer its over Land the more south it goes.

With this in mind i have not seen much movement lets hope it stays that way for awhile.





"THE LONGER
THAT WILMA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...THE CHANCES BECOME GREATER
FOR A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS INDICATED BY SOME GUIDANCE. " This is partial quote from 5am NHC discussion. How does your comment square with this?


funky
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:26 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Quote:

Well here in St Pete I am only planning on brining in the hanging plants, everything else stays where it is. I honestly do not think the winds are going to be that bad here.




down here in 34202 (bradenton/sarasota) and thinking the same thing... i have a large gas grill out on the lanai with the pool equipment and about 12 plants in clay pots. i know the plants will need to come in, but dont' know about the grill. might do it just to be safe. if this thing shifts just slightly north (and it looks like it could since the storm is ahead of schedule into the GOM) we could have cat 1 or 2 winds, which would suck big time.


CocoCrk
(Registered User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:29 AM
TD 25 is born

On a lighter note....TD25 has been born....first advisory at 11AM...models look to take it over Hispaniola and out to sea...we can only hope...back to regularly scheduled programming.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:30 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Quote:

Quote:

Very simple Forcast the longer its over Land the more south it goes.
With this in mind i have not seen much movement lets hope it stays that way for awhile.



"THE LONGER
THAT WILMA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...THE CHANCES BECOME GREATER
FOR A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS INDICATED BY SOME GUIDANCE. " This is partial quote from 5am NHC discussion. How does your comment square with this?




Uh... that's EXACTLY what was said. A more ENE track wil result in a more south track than a NNE or NE track.


emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:30 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Quote:

Quote:

Very simple Forcast the longer its over Land the more south it goes.

With this in mind i have not seen much movement lets hope it stays that way for awhile.





"THE LONGER
THAT WILMA REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...THE CHANCES BECOME GREATER
FOR A MORE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRACK AS INDICATED BY SOME GUIDANCE. " This is partial quote from 5am NHC discussion. How does your comment square with this?




Well, your both right..LOL! If it moves off sooner it will go NE . Longer it stays the more likely ENE therefore a further south Fl strike.


Cycloneye11
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:34 AM
Re: TD 25 is born

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-FIVE (AL252005) ON 20051022 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051022 1200 051023 0000 051023 1200 051024 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.8N 67.5W 16.8N 69.9W 18.1N 72.1W 20.0N 74.0W
BAMM 15.8N 67.5W 17.1N 69.9W 18.4N 71.8W 20.1N 73.8W
A98E 15.8N 67.5W 16.5N 70.0W 17.3N 72.2W 18.9N 74.2W
LBAR 15.8N 67.5W 16.9N 69.7W 18.5N 71.6W 20.5N 73.4W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 41KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 33KTS 38KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051024 1200 051025 1200 051026 1200 051027 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.3N 75.4W 33.8N 71.3W 43.7N 53.4W 37.4N 25.8W
BAMM 23.2N 75.3W 32.3N 72.0W 41.4N 56.2W 39.8N 29.0W
A98E 22.4N 74.8W 28.2N 70.9W 34.7N 59.6W 37.7N 37.4W
LBAR 23.5N 74.1W 37.9N 66.0W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 51KTS 54KTS 51KTS 34KTS
DSHP 43KTS 45KTS 43KTS 25KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.8N LONCUR = 67.5W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 15.1N LONM12 = 65.0W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 14.3N LONM24 = 62.3W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Yep TD25 is born.Will Alpha be born here and make history?


SEFL
(Registered User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:34 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Uh... that's EXACTLY what was said. A more ENE track wil result in a more south track than a NNE or NE track.





I wasn't questioning it, I just wasn't understanding it, and since I live at 26.8N 80.2W I am very interesting in where Wilma will eventually head. Already have 1/2 the shutters up. But 39 windows are a bit of work.


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:35 AM
Re: TD 25 is born

Quote:

On a lighter note....TD25 has been born....first advisory at 11AM...models look to take it over Hispaniola and out to sea...we can only hope...back to regularly scheduled programming.




And on a related note... looking at the IR loop... Wilma is remarkably still well organized. Cold cloud tops are returning to the east and southwest eyewall. Unless there is a lot of shear I don't see, we could have a cat 4 again very soon after the eye emerges into the GOM. I'm sure the shear will make that intensification limited longer-term, but the shear will be further north.

As for T.D. 25... It definately does look like a fish spinner right now after it goes over Hispaniola, but that could change this far out... if it even survives the trek across Hispaniola, which is not a given. The people of Haiti will be likely be able to say they have been hit by the first ever Greek tropical storm, though


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:36 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Remember one thing: they are counting on the cold front digging pretty deep into the GOM causing that ENE motion. I'm not seeing it dig that far south yet, so this could all be for naught.
The weather tends to do whatever it wants...no matter what the models say...and with this system, I think we have to keep a closer eye on what the satellites are showing us than what the models are showing us.
We are getting close to end of the Yucatan Peninsula trip. Then we can start to get a good grip on what to expect after that...I hope.
Now I have to go find my coffee which I lost somewhere between the computer and the kitchen.


MissBecky
(Weather Guru)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:36 AM
After Wilma has departed

This may be a little off-topic, but I hope mods leave it up for a little while so people can read it.

I work for an insurance company. One of the best things you can do now to prepare for Wilma is to find your homeowners policy and read it. Find out what your hurricane deductible is. Know your insurance company's claims hotline. Find out what your coverages are, especially for things like mold and fungus. Many homeowners policies do not cover flood damage, but you should already have a separate flood policy if one is required.

After Wilma, call your company and make your claim. Take pictures of any damages if you can. Save *all* your receipts for repairs. If you went through a broker, do not call them - this will only add time to your claim, and most brokers will only tell you to call the company direct anyway. Here are some claims phone numbers of major insurance companies.

The Hartford - 800-243-5860
Citizens - 866-411-2742
National Flood - 800-759-8656
Fireman's Fund - 888-347-3428

Above all, know what you are covered for, and what you can expect with your claim. Your best defense here is knowledge.


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:38 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Quote:

Uh... that's EXACTLY what was said. A more ENE track wil result in a more south track than a NNE or NE track.



I wasn't questioning it, I just wasn't understanding it, and since I live at 26.8N 80.2W I am very interesting in where Wilma will eventually head. Already have 1/2 the shutters up. But 39 windows are a bit of work.




Ah, sorry for the confusion then. Well, look at it this way, if you've already got half of them up, you might as well put them all up. We don't know where Wilma will eventually head, and we won't know for a couple of days likely, but better to be safe than sorry.


evergladesangler
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:40 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

With this loop it looks like the COC just wobbled west if it's the brighter yellow area with the red east and south of it:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

I might add this is the further the COC has been from water to this point if I'm seeing it right.


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:40 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Quote:

Remember one thing: they are counting on the cold front digging pretty deep into the GOM causing that ENE motion. I'm not seeing it dig that far south yet, so this could all be for naught.





I completely agree. I just don't know what the impact of the lack of the front digging down deeply will mean.

Okay... I just overlayed the front on the water vapor loop. The orientation of the front, if the map is accurate, is not what it appears on the WV loop. At least not to my eyes, unless I look REALLY close and then I do see it at the end. If the orientation does not change, the front will have to dig very deep for the official forecast to hold. That may happen, but if it doesn't...


craigm
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:46 AM
Re: TD 25 is born

I agree with you Hugh, I really expected her to get knocked down more. Especially the length of time the eye has been inland. Could be due to the flat topography and the fact that 4/5 ths of the storm is still over warm water.

g1bass
(Registered User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:51 AM
Re: After Wilma has departed *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:52 AM
Re: TD 25 is born

Quote:

I agree with you Hugh, I really expected her to get knocked down more. Especially the length of time the eye has been inland. Could be due to the flat topography and the fact that 4/5 ths of the storm is still over warm water.




And that brings up another disturbing possibility... One of the earlier hurricanes this season - Dennis I think - went over the Yucatan as a T.D. The COC then REFORMED to the north of the Yucatan... and ultimately moved almost due north. With Wilma's cold cloud tops returning over the GOM, we could see her COC reform, which would throw a monkey into the equation.


Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:53 AM
Re: Tropical Depression 25 Forms While Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Affect Cancun

We had 90 mph sustained winds during Rita. Wind damage was extensive. Probably lots of mini tornadoes also.

emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:54 AM
Re: After Wilma has departed

Colleen, you will be pleased to know we are not nuts..LOL! Steve Lyons was just on and what we were looking at was the center. It is sitting still now and is supposed to drift off the north coast later today.

GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 09:54 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

I know about the eyes. All day at work and all night on the computer at home. I was just pointing out what every one else said before I could get it cut and pasted, that the storm center appears to be about to leave the land. I also noticed the intensity starting to build as evidenced by the thicker clouds to the north. The Water Vapor loop outlines the various loops and swirls that might or might not be strong enough to push the entire storm and I also noticed the SE to NE slant, towards the Bay Area and Northward. I know all the criteria regarding the 2 dimensional picture versus the reality but after you have followed a few storms you begin to get an ability to make brain/visual allowances for 4 dimensional events squashed into 2 dimensional pictures. The overall picture looks dangerous and I will continue to harp on the deceptive quality of the intensity models (numbers vs reality) People tune out things when they are tired, or looking forward to fun, or are caught up in personal stuff. Everyone please be aware, that this storm is going to fool people from coast to coast. It will be intense in places unexpected, and a piece of fluff where people were biting their nails. (Katrina and Rita are not good storms to compare this with nor are the three Central Florida had last year). This is going to feel and act like a cold front where one minute we will be out and about and the next minute wondering what hit us. I remember noname quite well. I did not know it was coming.I learned about the system at church, shrugged it off and went to bed... Was waken by family telling me to get up and get street clothes on and I did not have time to do it and there was no place to go. IT was terrifying. No prep no time for mental preparation that we get when we see winds gradually building.

Southern4sure
(Weather Guru)
Sat Oct 22 2005 10:01 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

I keep seeing "no name storm" popping up. Can someone please tell me about this or give me a link to read about it? It sounds really scary.

Joshua
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Oct 22 2005 10:08 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

http://tampa.about.com/library/weekly/aanoname.htm

All about the 1993 No-Name storm


Southern4sure
(Weather Guru)
Sat Oct 22 2005 10:13 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event? *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

abyrd
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 10:16 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

No-Name storms are the first mention of a tropical depression. Until the 11 a.m. report where it will be classified at TDtwenty-something (I lost count), it will be refered to as no-name. The no-name will disappear in 30 minutes.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Oct 22 2005 10:21 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

Quote:

No-Name storms are the first mention of a tropical depression. Until the 11 a.m. report where it will be classified at TDtwenty-something (I lost count), it will be refered to as no-name. The no-name will disappear in 30 minutes.




Actually, on NRL, it will remain identified as "25.NONAME" until it is upgraded to "ALPHA". The NHC will refer to it as TD 25 beginning at 11am, but the NRL site uses "NONAME" to refer to any T.D.

On a somewhat related topic... I had a weird thought while eatting my Fruit Loops... (which may be the cause of the weird thought )... Looking at the computer models for TD 25, and the computer models for Wilma... the two systems could ultimately run into each other, literally, in the mid-Atlantic.


Big Tk
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Oct 22 2005 10:24 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

It looks like she's reforming at the northeastern tip of the yucatan. I do not like what i'm seeing.

KornR
(Registered User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 10:26 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

I have been watching all these threads with great fervor. I love this website. Kudos to the creators.

What I am most concerned about, as are most people in Florida, is where exactly Wilma will hit. I live north of Gainesville, and already today has been a soaking wet day. Looking at the radar, this is an extreme offshoot of the Wilma system. But I am also concerned about things picking up here in the next few days, and under what kind of threat I might be.

I have family in Sarasota who are absolutely puckered over this storm.

I know it's THE BIG QUESTION, but what will Wilma do after she passes the Yucatan?


TampaSu
(Registered User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 10:26 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

Quote:

I keep seeing "no name storm" popping up. Can someone please tell me about this or give me a link to read about it? It sounds really scary.




I think this reference was to the storm discussed in the link provided - the March 1993 storm that hit Florida.


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Oct 22 2005 10:28 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

Quote:

It looks like she's reforming at the northeastern tip of the yucatan. I do not like what i'm seeing.




You and every other resident of the state of Florida, I imagine. It will be VERY interesting to see what the NHC says about the intensity and track in the 11am discussion... and what the first recon flight in the GOM finds. With the last storm that crossed land like this and headed into the GOM... there was a plane literally waiting for it.. will that be the case with Wilma, I wonder?


Kimster
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 10:31 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

Ah, the noname storm of 93'. I was living just north of Clearwater at that time. I will never forget going to bed on a Friday evening with no idea a storm was coming. Around 5:30am I was awakened by a constant banging sound coming from my living room. Awoke to find our boat banging against our sliding door windows in the living room and about 6 inches of water in the house. We were instructed by FEMA to write across the top of the claim form, "No-name Storm - March, 1993". I somewhat remember having to do the same with IRS. My "addiction" to Hurricane season and all that is involved in same was born as a direct result of this storm.

FireAng85
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 10:31 AM
I remember No Name of 1993

Boy do I!!! My husband and I lived in Sorrento, FL at the time, just outside of Mt. Dora. Mt Dora had 5 tornadoes touch down. I knew it was coming but had no idea how bad it was going to be. Besides Hurricane Charley, that was the single most terrifying night of my life. I was just a volunteer firefighter back then and I lived in a trailer. When it was happening, we were so scared in that trailer, we scooped up my 2 very small kids, put them in our truck and tried to make it to the fire station because it was a steel building. We had a hard time just getting there because of the downed trees and power lines. Thank God I had a really big 4x4 then. We started running calls as soon as I got to the station and I ended up using my personal vehicle to get victims out of places that fire trucks and ambulances couldn't go. I have friends that lost their newborn son in that storm and the father has severe brain damage. God help us if it's going to be like that again.........

Big Tk
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Oct 22 2005 10:34 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

I doubt the TPC makes any changes to the track At 11:00 am. the models would have to shift dramatically to the north for that to occur

nl
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 10:40 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

where do we see its reforming? on what radar or sat.? ive kept my mouth shut all week about wilma. i dont have a good feeling bout her. im gonna laugh when she proves all these local medias wrong. me and my friend at work last yr in daytona was the only one that was right bout charlie last yr. people called us crazy and other names. so i went through alot calling these storms. this yr i was right about all of them. but honestly i dont know bout this one. people was coming up to at work asking me about her and i told them i dont know. and they were like whoah! if he doesnt know the we are screwed. i told them not to watch the local news. just goto this site. its the best we got. so if im wrong it wont hurt.

typhoondave
(Registered User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 10:42 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

I've been visiting this site for two seasons now. Making my first post. The information I have picked up here is awesome in its scope, from extremely technical all the way down to practical information for amateurs and hobbiests. Kudos to all who moderate and comment on this site. The NHC is still the final word for Tropical Systems but this is the best additional source of info I have found.
I was living in Spring Hill,Fl. just off of US 19 during the No Name Storm of 93. We experienced winds up to 90 MPH and had a huge oak tree snap in our front yard. If you are in the cone for Wilma please take it seriously. It does not take a direct hit to receive damaging winds. Pay attention to the watches and warnings that will be posted today or tommorow and prepare accordingly. I still have family in Weeki Wachee and my thoughts are with them and all Floridians who may be affected by this storm. God Bless.


Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 10:47 AM
Hurricane Watch for Keys

at 11 am EDT...1500z...a Hurricane Watch has been issued for all of
the Florida Keys...including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch will likely be required for portions of the
Florida Peninsula this afternoon. All interests in the Florida
Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of Hurricane Wilma.


willw
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Oct 22 2005 10:49 AM
Re: Hurricane Watch for Keys

north at 2mph 115mph winds. no track change....

TampaSu
(Registered User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 10:50 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

Thought I'd introduce myself - now that I've posted.

I have been lurking here since Wilma started. This site has been a great find - I wish I would have found it last year! You all are doing a great job keeping me informed. I do first and foremost follow the NHC, but I like to hear the little details, and the "speculation". I follow Denis Phillips (my local met) but The Weather Channel has officially lost me this time around. It angers me that they have taken Tampa out of the cone (and I've been reading the discussion about this on this board). I think removing the Tampa area out of their cone is putting a largly popluated area at risk because a lot of people follow the weather channel, and ONLY the weather channel. These people may get caught off guard this time!

Thanks for all the great posts, and like all the others here in the Tampa area, I'll continue to "sit and wait" until if/when the time comes to implement our plan.

Volusia Pam - in Port Orange... Hi to you - your area is of interest to me as well because that's where my family will go should we need to leave Tampa. Our house has no interior rooms or closets, and lots of glass. My parents' home in Spruce Creek has a "safe room".

I'm also particularly interested in the discussion regarding the spawn of many tornados. Tornados scare me - my Aunt was killed by a tornado.

Thanks again for all the great posts!

Suzanne


3rdGenFlaNative
(Registered User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 10:55 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

I must admit, this is the first time in several days that I have that familiar knot in my stomach that appears when conditions begin to point to a serious threat of danger to my area. I knew that the local mets discussing the hurricane colliding with a cold front sounded bizare, but I didn't associate it with No Name '93. Now I am beginning to become very alarmed, and wonder why local media isn't voicing more concern about the possibilities.

Agreeing with previous posters, I consider this site invaluable. If it weren't for the info I've recieved here, and were I relying solely on local mets (which most people I know do), I would relax, cease most preparations that were inconvenient, and go on with my weekend. I sincerely hope that a storm event such as No Name '93 doesn't materialize, because if it does...well let's just hope it doesn't.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Oct 22 2005 10:59 AM
Re: Hurricane Watch for Keys

Good morning all. Well this is just horrific. Just up (after this week, I needed a night to catch up on sleep!) and just quickly looked at the wv loop. At almost 10am, the center is still rotating just inland between Cozumel and Cancun, with those places still taking a huge hit from the winds and water...plus this track must have been the worst possible track for Cancun and for the lagoon hotel area as far as flooding. There must be rain records being set as well. I am afraid that most of Cozumel must be under some feet of water.

I had posted to someone at Cozumel yesterday morning that they would be taking eyewall winds until just past midnight and could probably go outside by noon today but that is wrong...they'll be getting hit the rest of the day. It's just horrible and I don't even have words to say how devastated that area is, but for certain they won't have any tourist season this year. This devastation will easily be on a par with Katrina's, for both scale and intensity. This just after Stan dumped so much rain in Central America. Truly that area has been hit this year as hard as the US.


StPeteBill
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:00 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Quote:

Quote:

Well here in St Pete I am only planning on brining in the hanging plants, everything else stays where it is. I honestly do not think the winds are going to be that bad here.




down here in 34202 (bradenton/sarasota) and thinking the same thing... i have a large gas grill out on the lanai with the pool equipment and about 12 plants in clay pots. i know the plants will need to come in, but dont' know about the grill. might do it just to be safe. if this thing shifts just slightly north (and it looks like it could since the storm is ahead of schedule into the GOM) we could have cat 1 or 2 winds, which would suck big time.





Well funky, I just got through lugging everything in at the expense of my neighbors laughter. But I suppose I would rather be laughed at them today than to possibly crying with them later. Maybe it was premature but what the heck I can always haul it all back out.


engicedave
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:03 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

since we seem to be taking a moment to stroke flhurricane.com and those who run and participate on it, I too want to thank you.

While I trust and follow the tracking/guidence/wisdom of the NHC without fail, because they've given me no reason to do otherwise, it is nice to see and read some of the technicalities involved in forecasting a storm.

I guess I'm a geek

There are some folks on here who seem a bit off base or just flat out over-the-top, but the majority seems reasonable and balanced.

Thank you for your forum, and if there is a place to make some sort of financial donation to off-set the costs of operation (hosting/bandwidth/etc...), please let me know and I would be happy to contribute.

All this waiting is making me nuts, but this site has made good time fill as well as filling the blah, blah, blah information you get on TV.

Thanks again


nandav
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:05 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

On the left side, there is a link that says "Site donations and thanks" .. not a bad reminder to all of us!!

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:05 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

Look to the left of the screen to make Financial Donations to the Site.

WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:06 AM
Local WPB Met.

Area Weather Discussion on Hurricane Wilma
Palm Beach County Central/South Florida

Use this for supplemental Information along with the official forecast.

Broad trough with vortex low over Great Lakes will drag along Wilma. Mid to upper boundary across Vero Beach to Ft Myers...a cold front racing toward Central South Florida for Monday.

The latest on Wilma basing on the steering winds from continental Models of the ETA and NGM and analysis. Wilma now caught into a blocking wall type effect from the upper westerlies now beginning to pick it up. The motion to the Eastnortheast looks to begin later this afternoon and begin to accererate steadily Sunday and Monday. It looks like drawing a 060 degree line and also considering a mid to upper boudary or front aloft basing on the dewpoint analysis Wilma looks to go across a little farther south of the official forecast. The upper frontal boundary is located across Vero Beach to Ft Myers and usually these tropical systems especially this time of year move somewhat ahead of these boundaries. In any case shearing and the land mass effect has WIlma as a weakened system however once over water it will remain a rather punchy tropical system Cat 1 type storm for us is not to be taken lightly especially since you add the factor of the faster motion plus wind field these wind vectors and speeds are added to the overall effects of the wind damage and squally winds. In any case Monday around 1pm or so the tropical storms winds of 40 mph based on hurrivac program coming ino our area...and the strongest winds with possible squall gusts to 60-80 mph Monday starting 6pm for about 3-6 hrs then tapering off early Tuesday am. ..wind direction will be onshore...

Basically, Wilma will be more or less dragged along with broad trough to the north much like Freddy Flinstone dragging Wilma by her hair along the way on the ground not where you have the trough open up and it lifts northeast along the way but just dragged along.

Wilma will move off the extreme Southeast Florida coast Monday night and well offshore Tuesday am. cooler drier air moving into the area Tuesday night and continue into mid week with temps low mid 80's during daytime and lo 60's at nite Tuesday and Wednesday.

One last thing if Wilma accelerates a little faster and little earlier then you would adjust times of wind events a little sooner by 6 hrs or so..This would mean watches would be up by early this evening probably by the 5pm advisory...as a window of safety and margin..in case of earlier acceleration.

Right now I still favor southern most clustered tracks models..Naples to Broward-Palm Beach County Line...or more southward..


collegemom
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:07 AM
Re: Question to the Mets and all-Are we not looking at a possible massive tornado event?

Quote:

since we seem to be taking a moment to stroke flhurricane.com and those who run and participate on it, I too want to thank you.

While I trust and follow the tracking/guidence/wisdom of the NHC without fail, because they've given me no reason to do otherwise, it is nice to see and read some of the technicalities involved in forecasting a storm.

I guess I'm a geek

There are some folks on here who seem a bit off base or just flat out over-the-top, but the majority seems reasonable and balanced.

Thank you for your forum, and if there is a place to make some sort of financial donation to off-set the costs of operation (hosting/bandwidth/etc...), please let me know and I would be happy to contribute.

All this waiting is making me nuts, but this site has made good time fill as well as filling the blah, blah, blah information you get on TV.

Thanks again



on the main page left side under communication


funky
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:11 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

same here! my neighbors this morning looked at me like "uh, ok". its still nice out, and all i have to do is bring the plants in when it gets barney.

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

Well here in St Pete I am only planning on brining in the hanging plants, everything else stays where it is. I honestly do not think the winds are going to be that bad here.




down here in 34202 (bradenton/sarasota) and thinking the same thing... i have a large gas grill out on the lanai with the pool equipment and about 12 plants in clay pots. i know the plants will need to come in, but dont' know about the grill. might do it just to be safe. if this thing shifts just slightly north (and it looks like it could since the storm is ahead of schedule into the GOM) we could have cat 1 or 2 winds, which would suck big time.





Well funky, I just got through lugging everything in at the expense of my neighbors laughter. But I suppose I would rather be laughed at them today than to possibly crying with them later. Maybe it was premature but what the heck I can always haul it all back out.




Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:12 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

I'm not sure that is the CoC...if you click on that radar again, click on the "forecast points" and I think that will give you an idea of where the CoC is...looks like it is just north of Cancun.

Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:15 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

The dreaded TS/Hurcn icon has appeared in Lake County's forecast for monday

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/forecasts/FLZ044.php?zo=1&city=Northern+Lake+County

Does anyone have any idea about how much of an expansion we could see in Wilma's wind feild.


StPeteBill
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:17 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

What's the take that the Weather Channel is still reporting the storm to be stalled overland and there are no model changes? I am new to all of this and got all hyped up reading the post earlier but am not hearing any of this from the local mets or as I said the WC.

emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:20 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

It is stalled. Just a slight drift north. It's just SW of Cancun! :

AT 10 AM CDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH... LONGITUDE 87.0 WEST... JUST SOUTHWEST
OF CANCUN MEXICO... OR ABOUT 400 MILES... 645 KM... SOUTHWEST OF
KEY WEST FLORIDA

That was the 11:00 am eastern time public advis.


weatherwatcher2
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:20 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Are you all expecting a shift to the north? I thought the general consensus here was that it will be a weak 1 hurricane in South Florida?

nicolew
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:22 AM
NHC 11 am Discussion

In the 11 am discussion, the NHC says that there is disparity among the models as to the speed of the hurricane. I am new to this and know to look at the spaghetti websites but they don't give an idea as to speed and time. Can someone with more knowledge let me know how to find this info out or tell me what kind of disparity we are talking about here? What is the soonest the models say it could hit FL? What is the latest? Thanks for the help!

BillD
(User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:31 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Wilma is overland and drifting, and the models have not changed dramatically. So far the NHC forecast has been pretty much on track. One thing about this site is that you will get a wide range of opinions, some based on fact, some just pulled out of the air, and everthing in between.

Bill


willw
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:32 AM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

last night was a shift to the north. today back to where they've said. Ft.myers/naples area . If you live north of that you should be fine unless something unexpected happens.

efaulkSWFLA
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:32 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Quote:

Wilma is overland and drifting, and the models have not changed dramatically. So far the NHC forecast has been pretty much on track. One thing about this site is that you will get a wide range of opinions, some based on fact, some just pulled out of the air, and everthing in between.

Bill




And.. that is what makes everyone come back to read.. This site is been great


evergladesangler
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:33 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

It's interesting the the NHC has such a large northerly move before it goes eastward to the peninsula, given that it is stationary now. It if pivots more ENE that could greatly affect it's track. The 12Z NAM has a Keys trajectory and that model has been pretty good with this storm.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/index_slp_m_loop.shtml


laureg
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:34 AM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

Quoting this part of the update:

"...the motion of the storm combined with the pressure gradient may create a unique situation over Florida regardless of where the actual system makes landfall..."

Sorry if I missed it somewhere, but how does this make a unique situation over Florida? Just interested and curious...

We are ready here at our house...I feel like a reg'lar expert at this point. We will put up shutters probably tomorrow late afternoon or so. Grateful to be on this side of the water...we have friends in Sanibel who are already headed for an unscheduled vacay in NC for a few days.

I love that real time link you all posted. It is spectacular to see that cold front just sort of trucking along to meet up with the storm. This is a very interesting one to watch, for sure. Thanks to everyone for the great info.


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:35 AM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

I disagree with the statement if your north of that you should be fine. First, its only a line; a line that could move 100 miles in either direction. Second, where the storm and the front collide will be an area of very heavy rain and 50+/- mile winds. Third, also because of this collision, there will be an increase in the chance for tornados.

I would say that all of us in Florida need to be prepared!!!!


Multi-Decadal Signal
(Weather Guru)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:37 AM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

Max Mayfield to brief us in 15 minutes @11:45 TV time.

TinaB
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:38 AM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

Quote:

last night was a shift to the north. today back to where they've said. Ft.myers/naples area . If you live north of that you should be fine unless something unexpected happens.




Yea...that's just the problem with hurricanes, they often like to do the unexpected Personally if I lived north of the Ft. Myers/Naples area (and I do) I would not rest easy until this thing had made landfall or after (and I won't) I think too many residents of the Tampa area are way to complacent when it comes to these things. Let people laugh...I'm stocked up, I'm watching Wilma regularly. I check in here at least once an hour. My hurricane shutters are out and ready to go up. My pet carriers will be assembled and ready to secure my cats by the end of today. People here (in Tampa/St. Pete) can laugh if they want, but I'd rather be safe than sorry. I still think it's way to early to tell just where it will make landfall and I'm not buying the confidence of a sure extreme S florida landfall.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:38 AM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Quote:

looks like it is just north of Cancun.



No, it isn't moving much. It is very hard to see the center now because of all the convection, but it is still to the SW of Cancun, and if you go to the wv loop, and toggle between the 1245Z and 1315Z frames you'll see the center of circulation. First get positioned on the right frame, then zoom in three times. Above it, the purple moves to the left, and below it, to the right. It is a little closer to Cancun now than Cozumel.

Note: the movement from the loop still showed an oscillation! I was a little surprised. I thought once it got over land that would stop...I think it probably has dampened now to the point where it will be hard to see.


emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:40 AM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

Quote:

last night was a shift to the north. today back to where they've said. Ft.myers/naples area . If you live north of that you should be fine unless something unexpected happens.




If you simply follow the little black line you would be correct. However, I would rather wait until she exits the coast and starts moving and has a couple model runs before I'm comfortable with landfall vicinity. Even then it will have a large area of error.


collegemom
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:42 AM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

Right on the nose folks. I thought 11AM might give us some info. Best to wait and plan for many possibilities.

Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:43 AM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

Quote:

Quote:

last night was a shift to the north. today back to where they've said. Ft.myers/naples area . If you live north of that you should be fine unless something unexpected happens.




If you simply follow the little black line you would be correct. However, I would rather wait until she exits the coast and starts moving and has a couple model runs before I'm comfortable with landfall vicinity. Even then it will have a large area of error.






Amen!!!!


Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:45 AM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

Sun Sentinel is carrying it live

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/


nicolew
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:45 AM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

OK - looking for some advice - I live in Miami and my parents live in northern Palm Beach county. I have no shutters for my condo here and during Katrina my area suffered serious tree damage and was without electricity for a week. My parents live in a brand new house in an area with very few trees and they have hurricane-glass windows. I stayed for Katrina because I thought I'd be fine and ended up having a terrible time! Last year during Frances I went to my parents and while the area suffered damage, they fared really well. Am I crazy to load up myself and the dogs and head up to Palm Beach and put myself closer to where it looks like the storm will come in? Just looking for advice!

laureg
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:47 AM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

Right you are...remember last year, was it Charley that was supposed to go to Tampa and hit Port Charlotte instead...and we came to your neck of the woods to get away from Francis and got clobbered there anyway with tornados, flooding and I believe 70-75 mph winds. Dennis was supposed to come up our way, and we had a beautiful, sunny day off from work, while Miami took a hit...So it's just better to be prepared no matter where you are. Plus, its nice to have some feeling of being in control of at least something when you have no control over any of it...

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:48 AM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

Yes, there will be no point in trying to narrow down the FL landfall at all, until 11am Sun or 5pm Sun (NHC disc).

There is an extremely good reason why NHC has not made any changes to the FL forecast track over all these days; there was no reason to do so. They know how to pick a winner (track) at the beginning and then they stick with that until there is absolutely some specific reason to change it. They always have clear logical reasoning to back up their course changes. Can you imagine what people would think if they changed their forecast track with every advisory? Oh, at 5am it's going here, at 11am 20 miles to the east, at 5pm 30 miles to the west...just because the models fluctuate; people would be so confused they wouldn't know what to think, and no one would have any faith in what they were predicting.

I couldn't believe it when yesterday aft Steve Gregory announced a specific point of landfall in FL and an intensity level at landfall. Being a met he should know better than to cave into playing that game.

It might be a little different if we were talking about a FL landfall where a very small portion of the coastline was going to get obliterated like what is happening in Cozumel and Cancun (I am so glad NHC nailed that prediction in time for Mex to take action to evac as many as possible). What is going to happen in FL is likely just the opposite; a very very large area getting affected by TS force winds. It will not be so critical to know the exact location of lanfall.


evergladesangler
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:49 AM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

12Z GFS looks like it's moved north to Port Charlotte area.

TinaB
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:53 AM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

Exactly...to get a good idea of wind swath forecast (and keep in mind this is just forecast, this could change too) you can check out SFWMD's website

SFWMD NHC Forecast Products

Direct link to the wind swath forecast

72 Hr Windswath

If this one is close then almost ALL of the peninsula will feel something from this storm. Quite franky it's the spawning of tornadoes that worries me most.

edited to change SWFWMD to SFWMD (I'm so use to SWFMD it comes naturally)


trinibaje
(Weather Guru)
Sat Oct 22 2005 11:55 AM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

can someone post the gist of what Mayfield said?

TampaSu
(Registered User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:00 PM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

Quote:

Quote:

last night was a shift to the north. today back to where they've said. Ft.myers/naples area . If you live north of that you should be fine unless something unexpected happens.




Yea...that's just the problem with hurricanes, they often like to do the unexpected Personally if I lived north of the Ft. Myers/Naples area (and I do) I would not rest easy until this thing had made landfall or after (and I won't) I think too many residents of the Tampa area are way to complacent when it comes to these things. Let people laugh...I'm stocked up, I'm watching Wilma regularly. I check in here at least once an hour. My hurricane shutters are out and ready to go up. My pet carriers will be assembled and ready to secure my cats by the end of today. People here (in Tampa/St. Pete) can laugh if they want, but I'd rather be safe than sorry. I still think it's way to early to tell just where it will make landfall and I'm not buying the confidence of a sure extreme S florida landfall.





Tina - I'm a Tampa resident also, and I happen to agree with you. We are ready to implement our plan... if necessary. Remember Charlie? It missed us at the last minute. That could happen again, but in the opposite direction. Bottom line - we don't know until we know - and that's not until after it's come and gone! Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst...


flarrfan
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:04 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Anybody else see what I'm seeing in the IR loop? Looks to me like the COC is starting that inland loop-de-loop that those "crazy" models predicted on Wednesday.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:09 PM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

One key factor regarding how much Wilma may try to reintenisfy is how well the inner eyewall feature holds up. There is a large outer eyewall evident on the radar which still seems to be in prety good shape, while the inner eyewall seems to have contracted and may struggle to maintain itself for very long. If the inner wind core maintains itself as it emerges over water, it may try to increase more rapidly (though an ERC would probably ensue shortly after that given the outer eyewall). If all that is left is the large outer eyewall when it emerges offshore, the storm would less prone to rapid intensity changes.

I recall the "No-Name" event of 1993 very well... it is now a famous case study for meteorologists. There wasn't anything tropical about that at all... it was basically a mid-latitude baroclinic system on steroids. This scenario will be different. There definitely could be an enhanced risk of tornados with this system, but the details are still unclear on exactly where and when (forecasting hurricanes is a piece of cake compared to forecasting the probability of tornados 3 days out). A lot depends on how strong the system is when approaching Florida and whether it is still generating outer bands or not.


evergladesangler
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:11 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Quote:

Anybody else see what I'm seeing in the IR loop? Looks to me like the COC is starting that inland loop-de-loop that those "crazy" models predicted on Wednesday.


To me it looks like she it totally stationary now. What will determine landfall in FL is how she pivots off the land.

emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:11 PM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

The Cancun radar took a long time to update. However, the new pic looks like it has moved north and the COC is starting into Cancun. I can't imagine what is happening there.

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?12


TinaB
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:11 PM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

Quote:



Tina - I'm a Tampa resident also, and I happen to agree with you. We are ready to implement our plan... if necessary. Remember Charlie? It missed us at the last minute. That could happen again, but in the opposite direction. Bottom line - we don't know until we know - and that's not until after it's come and gone! Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst...




Hi TampaSu...Yea, I think alot of us Tampa residents who follow these things and don't poo-poo our chances of a hit are thinking the same thing. We had three trees go down last year...and it didn't take hurricane force winds to do it. Heck, we've lost tree limbs in one of our typical summer thunderstorms! Sure we won't suffer complete destruction like with a Katrina, but those tornadoes can be scarier than a hurricane any day. I'm praying!


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:15 PM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

I think the "cone of error" is there for a reason...because there could be (and usually are) errors on the exact point of landfall. If you are in the "cone", you should be prepared whether people laugh at you or not. This has been reiterated again and again and again by the NHC, the NWS, etc. It may do exactly what they are projecting it to do and it may wobble north or south of where they think the most likely point of landfall will be. A rule of thumb that I live by is that until it passes your lat/lon, you are not out of the woods by any means and should be prepared. Unfortunately, Charley was the best example of this last year when he made his sharp right hand turn into Punta Gorda at the last minute and some people were shocked. There are so many different variable with a storm that you don't really know what's going to happen until it actually does happen.

Since I have recently been accused by a member (whose identity I will not disclose out of respect to him/her) by a PM of wish-casting this storm (and apparantly every other storm for the last year) to come to Tampa, I wanted to clear something up: if people have thought that by my saying I thought it would come in further north that I was wishcasting it to Tampa, that is not what I intended. What was intended in my posts what that this storm could still come further north than Naples -- most likely Ft. Myers if that WAS to happen. I certainly hope this clarifies this issue for anyone who read my posts and thought I was wishcasting a storm anywhere.

Now...onto the weather we can expect on Monday/Tuesday (whenever it finally decides to arrive), the cold front that is supposed to push Wilma southward will collide with Wilma and that will cause some ugly weather to rear it's ugly head. So just stay alert and tuned in and watch for any conditions that are threatening to you or your family.


tenavilla
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:16 PM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

I just hope people aren't being a little too cavalier about what would happen if this hits Tampa. We're still not out of the woods and downtown Tampa is ill-prepared to deal with the storm surge. If a storm threatens this area, they have to shut power down to the entire downtown grid because it will be flooded and if power isn't cut when the water comes in, it obviously creates all sorts of problems. Here is a link for interactive graphics showing what will happen if a hurricane hits the bay. One of the interactives shows what areas will be under water with each category of storm from "just" a TS to a Cat 5.

http://tbo.com/hurricane2005/worstcase/

Bottom line is that Wilma has a lot of water to cross before it gets to FL and anything can happen. The forecast is based upon a lot of what "should" happen with these fronts, not systems that are already in place, so...nothing is certain at all.


evergladesangler
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:17 PM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

Quote:

The Cancun radar took a long time to update. However, the new pic looks like it has moved north and the COC is starting into Cancun. I can't imagine what is happening there.

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?12




You're right it's moving ENE now. I don't see how it ever makes it far enough north to hit north of Everglades City.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:19 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

From cancun travel online site (italics mine):

Just finishing translation of a short briefing issued by Governor of Quintana Roo about Cozumel.

COZUMEL Q.ROO

"The first point of impact in Quintana Roo and for that matter Mexico was the Island Of Cozumel located off the coast of Quintana Roo near the resort destination of Playa Del Carmen. "Wilma" came across Cozumel as a Category 4 Hurricane causing massive devestation according to preliminary information I am receiving"

"The Civil Protection from Quintana Roo is reporting that the winds took down and caused severe damage to houses and businesses including those that had protection and re-inforcement against Hurricanes ."

Additionally Signs, posts, electrical poles were blown away and some vehicles were overturned and swept away as well.

The Principal streets and avenues are flooded with waters of 4 to 5 feet and there are dozens of boats with damage. There was also a that washed almost a mile of highway into the ocean on the "backend of the Island"

As of right now officials in Cozumel have not reported any serious injuries nor deaths.


The highway they are referring to runs along the mostly undeveloped eastern shore that faces the ocean.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:19 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Based on the radar, it appears that the center is generally edging to the north, but moving erratically between E and W as it goes.

Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:27 PM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

You should never rest easy until the storm has dissipated. If you are in the cone of error just be ready to evacuate if necessary.
I noticed Broward Co. is already flooding. The sad thing is Wilma is taking forever to leave the Yucatan. The damage there must be
bad.


Rdietch
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:33 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Is there anyone left in Naples or FT Myers? i mean that is where the track has had it going for days now and most likly the place for it to hit and all we hear on here is Tampa Tampa Tampa.Not saying Wishcasting but people saying Tampa is not out of the Woods.That is true but not very likely to happen and yes you have to watch but nobody is talking about the poor people who really are in the path so it makes it look as if Naples has it easy when everyone talks just about tampa.


Does not anyone think it has a shot at Naples anymore? either Tampa or Bust?


FlaMommy
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:33 PM
Need some advice....

i havent been on all morning and dont know whats goin on as of yet....i made hotel reservations for tommorrow and monday night in case it slowed down....we have to cancel by 4pm today if we dont need the room...but we cant afford to just pay for the room if we dont need it....i need some serious advice on what to do....id go with my gut feeling but im torn...and hubby says the same....can you please helppp

becky


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:33 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Someone mentioned earlier that the outflow seemed to be improving... looks that way to me as well. That will be a factor in favor of short-term intensification IF the inner structure of the storm is still intact when it emerges back over water, whenever that happens.

As it turns out, Wilma came dangerously close to stalling just near or off of the coast, which would have made things even worse for all involved. Thankfully, that didn't happen.


laureg
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:35 PM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

Fox is reporting that the flooding came from rain last night and that the weather is pretty good today; expecting the flooding to clear up before the storm has any major impact.

Wondering if not now, maybe a later post, if someone can give their opinion as to how the storm might react should it travel over Lake Okeechobee?


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:35 PM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

God I hate when the " I gotta say it first, predict it first" people come into play on this site and then are critical of someone else's thoughts and wish we could simply block their darn IP. Colleen, I think based on your posts, experience, knowledge, value added to this site, there should not be anybody accusing you of ever wishcasting. I personally respect any cogent insight, opinion you and anyone else bring to the table and believe most here do as well. If anyone were a 100% expert , then these sites would not exist and some folks on here would be in another line of work because it would be so easy for everyone to predict. I have been on this site for a while now and every storm we have someone or a few folks who seem to want to upset the apple cart. If you agree so be it, if you disagree, VALIDATE it. And do not assume that anyone sane would be wishing possible death and destruction on anyone anywhere. Now lets all get along, be safe, happy and healthy and hope for the best for anyone impacted and keep each other informed and thinking, not arguing.

weatherwatcher2
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:36 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Isnt the cold front already making it just north of Tampa?

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:40 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

I believe the southern most part (as it relates to florida)of the front is still in the Panhandle, anyone see anything diff?

laureg
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:40 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

I would tend to agree with pretty much the majority here. If you are on the west coast of FL, regardless of your city, you need to have a plan, pay attention to the cone and draw your own conclusions for your own safety.

Rdietch
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:42 PM
Re: Need some advice....

Quote:

i havent been on all morning and dont know whats goin on as of yet....i made hotel reservations for tommorrow and monday night in case it slowed down....we have to cancel by 4pm today if we dont need the room...but we cant afford to just pay for the room if we dont need it....i need some serious advice on what to do....id go with my gut feeling but im torn...and hubby says the same....can you please helppp

becky





I am in South Bradenton and not Far from the water and i have no Motel Res made at all.If it comes ill go my brothers house down the road which is not a evac for a cat 1-3 storm so unless the track changes i would just be ready but to go to a motel now and be in Tampa is to me IMO a waste of money.Call up and just keep the one for Monday or wait till tomorrow Morning at that time we will have a better grip on where its going.


KC
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:46 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Yes - there are people left in Naples and Fort Myers. Lots of them. And they are all paying attention and getting prepared. If you look at the probabilities, Fort Myers and Naples are listed at 24%, Venice at 23% and Tampa at 22%. The point is that much of the west coast of Florida is at risk. This is a very difficult storm with a lot of variables that can still affect the path. I recall questions about Tampa but I guess I missed anyone saying that Wilma was definitely going to Tampa.

weatherwatcher2
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:48 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

I'll bet the further down the cold front comes the further the track will shift south. All depends how far down it comes.

lulu
(Registered User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:48 PM
Re: Need some advice....

Quote:

i havent been on all morning and dont know whats goin on as of yet....

becky




Me, neither. I'm in Ft. Myers. We have hotel reservations in Orlando and West Palm. Where should we go? When should we leave? What about tornados? Where is that cold front? Should we just head for (OMIGOD) Georgia? Tornadoes scare me more than hurricanes. And now it's flooding on the east coast (Ft. Lauderdale). Help!


Rdietch
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:50 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Quote:

Yes - there are people left in Naples and Fort Myers. Lots of them. And they are all paying attention and getting prepared. If you look at the probabilities, Fort Myers and Naples are listed at 24%, Venice at 23% and Tampa at 22%. The point is that much of the west coast of Florida is at risk. This is a very difficult storm with a lot of variables that can still affect the path. I recall questions about Tampa but I guess I missed anyone saying that Wilma was definitely going to Tampa.





KC that is for the center to pass within 65 miles of you.If it were to hit Naples dead on that is within 65 miles of Naples just about so the probabilities don't mean that much right now as with all storms they are pretty close this far out since that is for within 65 miles.If it was within 20 miles you would see alot of dofferent numbers.


Don't let the % fool you.


komi
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:55 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Yesterday i have really bad storm here in Spring Lage, and seems like will like this all around Fla in next fiew days ..

http://65.75.66.73/ktbw_compref124_current.jpg [keep reloading]

Will try to have last image uploaded as long as i have power !


Multi-Decadal Signal
(Weather Guru)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:56 PM
Re: NHC 11 am Discussion

Quote:

I noticed Broward Co. is already flooding.


partial edit

This part of the county has poor drainage. We had a tornado warning last night and they had 4-6 inches of rain in an hour or two. There was no touchdown.


pincty
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Oct 22 2005 12:57 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

I feel the same way as you regarding Tampa. For three days now all I've heard is Tampa, Tampa, Tampa. Last night I kept reading posts that the hurricane would exit Cancun in a few hours and the track would change to the north. Then from 8 this morning there were many more posts stating that Wilma would exit the Yukatan soon and the track would be shifted north. Well, guess what? The storm is still stuck in Mexico and the track did not shift north. In fact, it may have shifted south. A year ago someone posted advice on this board which I always keep in mind: A majority of the persons who post on this forum are not mets, they are accountants, engineers, cooks, teachers, etc. They are giving their opinions on storms based on various information which they analyze. However, they are not professionals (I understand that the pros at the NHC miss a few) thus we should depend on the NHC in the analysis of these hurricanes. I love reading the posts on this site however I take most opinions (other than the opinions from the moderators, Scott S., and couple others) with a grain of salt.

emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:07 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Actually, I personally think Tampa has been mentioned so much because there are several posters on here from the area. Some are asking if they are safe and some declaring their safety. As far as I remember the majority of the posts have simply been the basics. No one knows who is safe yet. I'm no met. I'm a mother. I'm not going to say, "yea, eat your extra food and lift the sail on your yacht"!

komi
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:08 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Winds: http://65.75.66.73/ktbw_vwp_current.jpg

gvl, fl
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:11 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Here in Gainesville, we didn't see many effects at all from Charley. There was some dry air that infused from the west, if I remember correctly, and that sort of protected us. We definitely got hit pretty badly by Francis and Jeanne, even though we only experienced winds of 60-70 mph with some stronger gusts. Our local tv forecasters have implied it could be bad for us if the track is more to the north, like toward Tampa, but they haven't gone into detail yet. Does anyone think it could be worse than Francis and Jeanne, for this part of the state? Or even as bad as those storms were? I realize it depends on the size of the windfield and how quickly it is moving. Both the other storms took a long time to pass through. They were both only about Cat 1 or 2 at landfall, right?

Rdietch
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:12 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Genesis
(Weather Guru)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:14 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

There is no good way to know - yet - exactly where the impact will be in Florida, or if it will hit the mainland at all (e.g. a path over the Keys)

HOWEVER, there are a few things that are reasonably-well known.

1. The front is vigorous. It is 79.5F here right now. Yesterday at this time it was in the mid 80s. Humidity is WAY down (50% at present) and the wind has shifted and is out of the NNW - the front has passed us. This happened fairly early this morning and a surface map confirms this - the frontal axis is pretty much across Appalachicola right now. The trough is clearly visible on WV imagery; there's no doubt where it is. It also is not moving much in terms of eastward progression at this time; again, WV imagery confirms this.

2. The front is running basically on a SW-NE axis, NOT SSW-NNE. If WIlma was to exit right now and get picked up, I would expect a NE motion - not a ENE one.

Wilma is drifting northward at the present time, and has yet to make a solid connection with the trough.

The key as to WHERE she goes will be determined by how far down the front has travelled before she gets picked up, and how long it is before the pickup happens. Were the connection to be missed, behind this front is a STRONG high - that would confound ALL the existing models. I do not see that happening though - but I mention it because if the trough were to lift NE - not impossible - it could leave WIlma behind. Again, though, there is no model support for that scenario.

The models prognosticate the front reaching nearly to Tampa by late tomorrow. Should this happen, Tampa obviously would not take a direct hit, as the storm will run south of the frontal boundary. HOWEVER, this does not mean that anything south of that boundary is "in the clear" - quite to the contrary - anything along that boundary is likely to get positively hammered with nasty weather, as all this tropical moisture feeding into what is already a vigorous trough can produce incredible amounts of rainfall, tornadoes, hail, and extreme straight-line wind levels. As a consequence I would be expecting ugly weather from wherever your "current surface map" shows the front to be all the way well south of there.

As well, Wilma at last report had a 200nm radius windfield for tropical storm force winds. That's big! Add baroclinic enhancement and sustained 35kt winds with gusts into the 60-70kt range are not unreasonable at all to expect over most of the Peninsula when the storm comes across.

I do think that the extreme NE event that I was fearing may come to pass is less likely, simply due to time - it is likely that the low associated with this trough will be off the seaboard by the time WIlma comes up. That's a piece of good news for the rain-soaked NE coast.


dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:14 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

I agree. Everyone has a right to their own opinion. As long as they have a thought or reason for stating such, I have no problem with it. Bottom line is that nothing will be known until if and when the storm emerges and begins its turn toward the peninsula. I dont think in your face comments or i told you so's is productive or proper for this forum. Please refrain from dissing the people you do not agree with. I think everyone here is genuinely concerned for their own safety and are not wishing for this storm in their back yard. Now back to our regularly scheduled program

Geoff
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:18 PM
Front Location

You can look at the Weather Buoy data (5 day temp graphs) to get a feel for where the front is. Buoy 42040 has just registered the drop, as has Buoys 42046, 42038 and 42020. Buoy 42039 appears to be starting to register it. Buoy 42001 has not shown any temperature change to speak of yet.

What is most interesting is that Buoy 42002 (25.17 N 94.42 W) has not shown any signifigant changes yet, althought it appears as though it is at the front based on the NWS info.

Could this mean it is not dropping as low as thought?


Quote:

I believe the southern most part (as it relates to florida)of the front is still in the Panhandle, anyone see anything diff?




Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:18 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Here's a clip from the NWS - Ruskin Hazardous Weather this morning:

MARINERS AND RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
SHOULD KEEP UPDATED ON THE PROGRESS AND FORECASTS OF WILMA...AS
CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
CONDITIONS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE ON
SUNDAY...AND HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
MARINERS SHOULD PLAN TO REMAIN IN PORT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.


That's an OFFICIAL source. Therefore, I think it is a given for people in Tampa to be a little concerned. Nobody has forgotten Naples or Miami or any other place. It's just an up-in-the air situation right now. Take it with a grain of salt or don't. In the end, no matter where it ends up, most Floridians are going to feel some type of effect from Wilma. Of course, others will feel worse, but with the cold front colliding with a tropical cyclone, it will not be pretty.


nicolew
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:18 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Well, I would venture to say that Ft. Lauderdale is a pretty major city in Florida, in a very populated county (Broward) in the most populated area of the state without a doubt. But it is natural that people are most concerned about the area in which they live. Many of the posters on here are from Tampa and so they mention Tampa frequently. This is human nature and totally normal! The word Tampa might get the people on this site going. I live in Miami and there has been very little south Florida talk on here - but I'm not complaining! I totally understand why.


Quote:

Its fine to give a opinion and where you think its gonna go but some like to to get others going.Why has there not been so much of watch out Keys or watch out Ft Laud or Port Charoltte....Because its not a major city.But to say the word Tampa gets people going.

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:21 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

There is a rule of thumb in life, "Do not make others look bad to make yourself look good". Frankly everyone is a little nervous about the impact of this storm. Frankly, this storm can have severe impacts on the South and Central Florida area. The risk of tornadoes are very high, the risk of severe lightening storms are also high, and tropical storm force winds or gusts are also can provide anything from isolated to extensive damage.

There is a tendency to look at the storm as one dimension riding on a line from point a to point b. However, environmental influences of many dimensions influence the severity of weather. The cold front that is to sweep down the state is like adding gasoline to a fire. A strong cold front meets a warm core system. That in itself is a setup for some very nasty weather regardless of if you live in SFlorida or Central Florida.

Everyone should be taking this storm seriously. Regardless of if that little line is right over your house, or 60-100 miles north or south of you. To claim people are acting like Chicken Little or Wishcasting does not contribute to this board. As far as I know the moderators welcome productive discussions on where this storm goes even from people who are not Mets (the housewives, the engineers, the accountants, and even people who can not spell or make grammatical errors).

The stress level is going to pick up soon, and its important that we be tolerant of everyones opinion, even opinions that clash with our own.


emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:26 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Does anyone know how many MPH a drift is...ROFL! TWC just said the center is 10 miles WSW of Cancun. There's not much land North of Cancun.

pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:32 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

The best thing is that this storm will really be moving as it crosses the peninsula..that will really hold down damage, unlike last years storms. Ivan and Dennis were almost identical cat 3's but the damage from Dennis was a fraction of Ivan because one moved at 7 mph and the other at 18 mph....Opal was the last Cat 3 to hit FL in October. It was moving at 24 mph, and we had power the next day...the slow movers are the worst...hpefully a CAT 1 will move and keep damage minimal to a few trees and powerlines near landfall

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:33 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

The marine forecast at 11 AM was stating the storm moving at 2 Knots.. Guess that is their definition of drift.

Rdietch
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:33 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:33 PM
Re: Front Location

The E edge of the front as it realtes to the Panhandle does not seem to be dipping enough for me to feel good at this point, it's early and still plenty of time, but I see Wilma being cornered/pinched between MSLP 1012 and that front and riding the rail. Again it's early

HanKFranK
(User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:34 PM
movement

storm has been drifting steadily northward and if the trend continues it will be moving back over water around early evening. the inner core of the hurricane hasn't become disorganized due to the center having gone inland only a few miles, so the likelihood of it weakening significantly isn't there. the models indicating a central pressure in the 960s at feet wet probably have it on the mark. based on the somewhat improved outflow to the west today and strong jet gradient to the north i'd say the hurricane will be in very good condition for regeneration on sunday. don't be surprised if it reintensifies back to cat 3, as per the official. i see the potential for it to be stronger as well... would be surprised if it hits florida in the 945-955mb range. the jet winds appear to be streaking over the lower outflow levels, so once the core of the hurricane starts getting affected by those it will really accelerate and likely stabilize or begin to weaken. almost no model support for it to phase now, except for a few left outliers. some still bring it close enough to the northeast to cause some rainfall and coastal wind impact, but nothing on the order of some of the scary intense storm direct impacts shown on earlier runs.
going to keep the bullseye on fort myers out of stubbornness though i'm not convinced that the threat of a direct hit to naples is less likely. due to rapid movement the windfield asymmetery noted earlier by others will cause the strongest winds south of the impact point. if that's mostly driving into the glades then not such a big deal (would be much weaker on the southeast florida coast)... but right into marco, naples, or fort myers and that's a recipe for significant wind damage. surge potential is high on that section of coast, but even if the storm comes in near high tide we'll be near a last quarter phase moon, and that's the astronomical parameter for less tidal amplitude.
25L has a 18-hr run to the hispaniola coast to intensify to a tropical storm... the island will probably knock it down a good bit and it may not recover. by monday it will be close enough to wilma to begin arcing sharply northward... models still show a little window for intensification there too. satellite appearance is good right now, so it has a modest chance at t.s. in the short term. it won't get strong enough to be more than a rain event.
globals showing the kind of pattern that can generate more caribbean action later next week. a persistent, broad surface low should be hanging east of nicaragua, while another wave should come drifting in towards the islands under the persistent ridging north of the eastern caribbean.
HF 1735z22october


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:46 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Not sure if someone mentione this earlier, apologies if it was. Keys Watch is up

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1145 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

CORRECTED FOR ERRONEOUS HEADER

FLZ076>078-GMZ031>033-052>054-072>075-231000-
MONROE UPPER KEYS-MONROE MIDDLE KEYS-MONROE LOWER KEYS-
FLORIDA BAY-GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM-
GULF WATERS FROM EAST CAPE SABLE TO CHOKOLOSKEE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY OUT 20 NM-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE OUT 20 NM-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST OUT 20 NM-
OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
CRAIG KEY TO THE WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST 20 TO 60 NM OUT-
KEY WEST TO 20 NM WEST OF DRY TORTUGAS OUT 60 NM...INCLUDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY-
1145 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADJACENT WATERS...

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS HURRICANE CONDITIONS...WINDS OF AT LEAST 74
MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SURROUNDING WATERS WITHIN
36 HOURS. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS WILL BE DEADLY CLOUD TO
SURFACE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

CONSULT THE LATEST NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ADVISORIES CONCERNING
THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY OF HURRICANE WILMA. CONSULT THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENTS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN KEY WEST FOR LOCAL EFFECTS AND IMPACTS FROM HURRICANE WILMA.

A THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL EXIST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE TORNADO THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

HEAVY RAINFALL AND FRESHWATER FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. STRONG AND DAMAGING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD AS HIGH AS 10 FEET BY LATE
SUNDAY...AND IN EXCESS OF 12 FEET...POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 20
FEET...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GULF WATERS NORTH AND WEST OF KEY WEST...AS WELL AS THE DEEP WATERS
SURROUNDING DRY TORTUGAS NATIONAL PARK.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST MONDAY EVENING AS HURRICANE WILMA ACCELERATES TO THE NORTHEAST. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJOINING WATERS...USHERING IN COOLER AND LESS HUMID AIR FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY RAINFALL GREATER THAN ONE INCH...AND WIND GUSTS 40 MPH OR GREATER


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:48 PM
Re: Front Location

Ed...is the cold front that is supposed to be coming down the feature near lower Mississippi and central Alabama or is it not showing it on this WV Loop?

WV Loop

If that's what you're talking about, you're right...I don't see it coming down as far unless it really speeds up. Looks like we might see the tail end of that one IF it's the cold front...but I could be wrong about it being the cold front.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:49 PM
Re: Need some advice....

Someone posted earlier the eye is moving erratically...it is not. Wilma's eye continues to have a pronounced oscilatory movement, and I have determined that the current oscillation of the center is around the outer eyewall (not much left of the center eyewall at this point).

Wilma looks to spin up rapidly once off the coast.


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:53 PM
Re: Front Location

I believe that's the one, Mets/Mods, more aptly educated, any different perspective?

k___g
(Weather Guru)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:57 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-wv-loop.html

I have been following this loop for a few hours and it appears that the dry air entering the Gulf is eroding back to the NW in response to Wilma. Could it be that the hurricane may influence the progression of the front?

Just something I've been watching....


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:58 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

It sure looked like a Tug O' War to me the last couple of hours also

Rdietch
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:59 PM
Re: Front Location

what city is about 26.1 Latt in Florida anyone?

Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 01:59 PM
Re: Front Location

If you look at this link and turn on the fronts you can see it.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html

Rdietch
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:01 PM
Re: Front Location

2PM update back to Drifting northward (model change coming again) and now a cat 2 storm down to 110 mph...Lets see if she can go to 100 before back out.

engicedave
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:02 PM
Re: Front Location

26.1 is Marco Island

efaulkSWFLA
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:02 PM
Re: Front Location

Quote:

what city is about 26.1 Latt in Florida anyone?




I know I am in Ft. Myers. and we are at 26.5 north. Dont have a grid to pin point 26.1, but that is a bit south of Ft. Myers


tpratch
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:02 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

The storm was definitely being artistic with it's spriograph-like path upon landfall.

I realize that they points are so close to each other that without my usual legend, you may not be able to see the trend.

At any rate, doing things around the house today, so this is the extent of the graphic for now. I'll knockout the bearings at a later point.




*NOTE: there is a degree of uncertainty on the actual center being shown on radar. Based on the elongation and outer wind maxima, it's entirely possible that I'm about 15 pixels left of actual.

YMMV SPSFD


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:03 PM
Re: Need some advice....

I think I was the one who said it was moving erratically, or at least moving erratically between E and W superimposed on a northward drift. I think we are talking about the same thing, only using different semantics. I'm still more focused on the inner eyewall, though that may not be appropriate for much longer. Most of the outer eyewall is over water and it appears to be maintaining itself quite well.

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:05 PM
Re: Front Location

That would be Naples, precisely, 26.1 would be right around A&B Charter Fishing

Rdietch
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:06 PM
Re: Front Location

Quote:

26.1 is Marco Island





Ok thanks the 12z GDFL has it right off 26.1 heading to the coast NE so the 12z GDFL has it going then just north of there so between there and 26.5 the new GDFL is.


Thanks.


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:07 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

Reminds me of Lite Bright

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:09 PM
To The Moderators *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:10 PM
Re: Front Location

I saw that. It has it exiting way to close to Melbourne for my taste. Is there a 12z GFS. I'm not sure when all the models run. I'd be curious to see that one though.

Rdietch
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:12 PM
Re: To The Moderators *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Geoff
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:12 PM
Re: Front Location

Quote:

If you look at this link and turn on the fronts you can see it.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html




That's the front graphic I had mentioned earlier in relation to the Buoys. I would have thought based on the front location that Buoy 42002 (25.17 N 94.42 W) would have registered a temperature drop by now. The ones farther north and northeast have already.


Rdietch
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:13 PM
Re: Front Location

Quote:

I saw that. It has it exiting way to close to Melbourne for my taste. Is there a 12z GFS. I'm not sure when all the models run. I'd be curious to see that one though.





that one is even a little more north then the GDFL.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:13 PM
Re: Prolonged Hurricane Force Winds Now Affecting Cancun

That could be...the outflow from Wilma is huge...but I'm not sure if that's what responsible for it pushing it back to the NW. It is definitely going back towards the NW, though. Just another piece of the puzzle to throw in there, huh?

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:16 PM
Re: To The Moderators *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:18 PM
Re: Need some advice....

Alot of disagreement among people on where this will go cause alot want to hear the storm will come close to them. People complain about it hitting down in SW florida when they live in Tampa saying, No it will shift N towards here....then the people down there say the same thing about I Dont want to hear about Tampa cause its staying here........Well people can predict what they want cause until it makes its turn and at what angle ( cause of the angle of the trough digging in) we dont know quite yet.

My forecast is a premature one........I feel with the trough digging to the N central gulf across to Central Florida...the steering flow will be SW-NE...at first a movement N will happen due to the ridge over the SE Bahamas getting fed heat from the TD-TS in the Carribean this ridge (although not very big) will enhance a nearterm N-NNE movement later tonight into Sunday with a bend NE later Sunday into Sunday night...the trough over N-Central Florida will lift to Ocala-Jax as the Hurricane moves NE Sunday night-Monday...

Landfall will be from the mouth of Tampa Bay south to Port Charollete....it could wobble just north over tampa or just south near Ft Myers...... still too early to tell....

The strongest winds will be near and just southeast of the center.....the heaviest rainfall will be near the center and also just N of the center cause of the interaction of the Hurricane and the trough to its N squeezing out the moisture in the Atmosphere........so even if you live 100 miles N of the path,, you will recieve heavy rain and TS winds due to the transition of the hurricane into more of a hybrid system as it leaves Florida.....so the winds will expand near landfall......

Anyways I will update my path late tonight cause things will change and it just matters on how it leaves the Yucitan and how much N or NNE it goes before the bend NE,,, 25N and 85W is the path N or S of where it comes into Florida.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:19 PM
Re: Need some advice....

Quote:

Quote:

i havent been on all morning and dont know whats goin on as of yet....

becky




Me, neither. I'm in Ft. Myers. We have hotel reservations in Orlando and West Palm. Where should we go? When should we leave? What about tornados? Where is that cold front? Should we just head for (OMIGOD) Georgia? Tornadoes scare me more than hurricanes. And now it's flooding on the east coast (Ft. Lauderdale). Help!




Either Orlando or West Palm would be a good place to go if you end up evacuating. The storm will probably pass closer to Orlando, but that is far enough inland to where conditions should not be too bad. I would try not to worry too much about tornados... even if there are a lot of them, the vast majority of people aren't going to be affected by them. Just be sure to be somewhere that would be a good shelter just in case.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:20 PM
Re: Front Location

Question: is that front actually there or is that where they think it is? If it is there, is it as deep as they thought it would be? I'm not sure, so I thought I'd ask. Thanks, Geoff!

ThirdRay
(Registered User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:22 PM
Re: To The Moderators *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:27 PM
Re: Need some advice....

Quote:

i havent been on all morning and dont know whats goin on as of yet....i made hotel reservations for tommorrow and monday night in case it slowed down....we have to cancel by 4pm today if we dont need the room...but we cant afford to just pay for the room if we dont need it....i need some serious advice on what to do....id go with my gut feeling but im torn...and hubby says the same....can you please helppp

becky




The model consensus if for landfall sometime on Monday morning with the system moving quickly off to the NE. The model consensus is also for a track south of Tampa, with the strongest winds on the southern side of the system. Based on the model consensus and the current official forecast, you would not need a hotel room again Monday night, unless you feel your home would be susceptible to damage even from tropical storm conditions. However, if you are going to be stressed out about not having a room Monday night because of the uncertainty involved, you may want to keep it for peace of mind.


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:27 PM
Meanwhile off the coast of Hispaniola...

In case anyone has missed it... the 2pm ET advisory on TD 25 indicates that we will probably have Alpha very soon.

Rdietch
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:29 PM
Re: To The Moderators *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:29 PM
Re: Front Location

To T12 - essentially the inner core has been spnning around, inside of the outer eyewall, like a ball inside of the rim of a hola hoop, giving a wobbly appearance, but actually is a predictable movement. Now that the center over time has gotten mashed up so to speak, the effect of the oscillation on the storm as a whole was reduced and movement outside of the large eyewall was minimized, but movement inside of it was still oscillating, while over landfall since early this morning. Tpratch's diagram shows the movement a bit when it was approaching the Yucatan (it looks like a series of curves like a bouncing ball). However now as the inner core becomes more disorganzied, even that will become less discernable, and once over water, the larger eyewall will eventually clear out and the radius will decrease.

This is generally only a feature of stronger storms and especially in cases of lopsided circulation.


Southern4sure
(Weather Guru)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:29 PM
Re: Need some advice....

Once Wilma starts moving across the gulf, how fast is she predicted to move? I have heard about 30 mph, is this correct?

engicedave
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:31 PM
Re: Front Location

IMO - Here's the train that's going to move it eastward...ALL ABOARD!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html (look in upper left corner)

Long distance view of the same
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

I swear, it seems like some of you are just looking for problems and not at what it is.
It doesn't have to bang it in the side to move it, that just blocks the north and the eastward movement will bring it along sweeping it eastward...


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:33 PM
recon

000
URNT12 KNHC 221820Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1749Z
B. 21 DEG 13 MIN N
87 DEG 05 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2735 MA
D. 65
E. 045 DEG 60 NM
F. 140 DEG 90 KT
G. 042 DEG 40 NM
H. 958 MB
I. 11 C/ 3061 M
J. 14 C/ 3062 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E36/80/60
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1824A WILMA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 90 KT NE QUAD 1739Z
RAGGED EYEWALL


Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:33 PM
Re: To The Moderators

Colleen, I've been on this board a while now and I always enjoy your well thought out posts. Just ignore it & keep posting your ideas on this storm.

StPeteBill
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:34 PM
Re: To The Moderators

I am new here and have learned a lot and enjoyed reading everyone’s post with their prospective but am really getting burnt out with all the bickering. Everyone knows the old adage concerning opinions. There are professional ways in disagreeing with another ones opinion with out bashing and getting nasty. I am sure I am not the only one here that feels this way.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:34 PM
Re: To The Moderators *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:35 PM
Re: Need some advice....

Quote:

Once Wilma starts moving across the gulf, how fast is she predicted to move? I have heard about 30 mph, is this correct?




Latest GFDL model has Wilma's forward speed of 20 mph at west coast of FL landfall.


Heather
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:36 PM
Re: Front Location

Noticing the dry air that is usually bad for a hurricane's health, but it would almost appear as Wilma is "fighting back" and pushing the dry air back. Is this right?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:38 PM
Re: Front Location

Quote:

IMO - Here's the train that's going to move it eastward...ALL ABOARD!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/gmex-wv-loop.html (look in upper left corner)
Long distance view of the same
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html
I swear, it seems like some of you are just looking for problems and not at what it is.
It doesn't have to bang it in the side to move it, that just blocks the north and the eastward movement will bring it along sweeping it eastward...




I don't mean to sound argumentative... but....
Using your logic that it doesn't have to bang it in the side to move it... Wilma should already be making landfall on the west coast of Florida, because in a sense the front is already blocking movement to the north. As far as the "train" goes... I just don't see it. Are you talking about the little bit of moisture over Texas? Are you talking about the "train" of moisture coming off of Wilma and moving across Florida from the Big Bend area south through the Keys? The area over Texas is too far away, and the stuff over Florida is the outflow from Wilma. I really don't see anything on that loop to pull the storm northward.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:38 PM
Re: To The Moderators

BTW with Charley,,everyone kept saying it was going thru tampa but I said for 2 days before it was going to bend right and make landfall in Sarasota county...I was off by 25 miles? not bad for 2 days out.

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:40 PM
Re: To The Moderators

I'm never wrong, I just wait till it makes landfall and edit and backdate LOL

engicedave
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:41 PM
Re: Front Location

I am talking about the moisture in Texas (1016mb) moving eastward.
As Wilma drifts more northerly, I believe that is what is going to initiate the turns and a eastern movement

IMO, going to pull her out of the hole, so to speak

but hey, I'm an idiot, what do I know?


Rdietch
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:42 PM
Re: To The Moderators

Quote:

RDIETCH... And where do you think it will go??? south florida?? it could.. but I have only missed 2 storms this year and 1 by only 100 miles from 3 days out.,..so really 1 and last 2 years 2 times each. My forecasts are 2-3 days ahead of time. Not 24hrs or less what the NHC gives. I have contacts and sources from all over, including the NWS in Tampa and the NHC.... so if it gives ya confidence that Im wrong, then fine,, cause I could be wrong, I said we and I dont know forsure probably for 12 hrs more.





Was not saying you are wrong becuase how do i know where it is going? i mean the hurricane center only has a idea so i hvae no clue so i really don't have any idea where its going to go.I know where i would like it to go but im not a forcaster so ill leave it to them and if you really read my post i was jesting.Which means i was more or less saying it toung and cheek.It could come here as easy as Naples i just hope the latter


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:42 PM
Re: To The Moderators

Scott I always read your posts. Even when you are wrong you are coherent. You are not ever so wrong that I can not take your ideas into consideration. I believe you are correct on this one because Central Florida Weather is always tricky this time of year. I think it is our distance from the equator that makes this so. In the dead of winter we can climb into the car and drive to Cross city change clothes from shorts and shirts to long pants and coats and the temperature difference can be 20 degrees or more different from where we started.

Lance Wilson
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:42 PM
Guess

Quote:

BTW with Charley,,everyone kept saying it was going thru tampa but I said for 2 days before it was going to bend right and make landfall in Sarasota county...I was off by 25 miles? not bad for 2 days out.




What is your call on this one? (I missed it somewhere along the way.)

Thanks to all, and I too like reading Colleen's posts.


Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:42 PM
Re: Need some advice....

Nice reasoned forecast. May pan out & 12Z GFS model does support your thinking.

efaulkSWFLA
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:43 PM
Re: Front Location

question... at its current pace, what N.2? How long before the entire COC is over water again? just curious.. Thanks...

Ned
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:44 PM
Re: To The Moderators

Scottsvb-
Been watching your takes since last 4last yr.You are very accurate.Iam still holding w/low hit into S.Fl from tue.nite.Thanks,learn a lot from you.
Ned


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:45 PM
Re: Front Location

Quote:

I am talking about the moisture in Texas (1016mb) moving eastward.
As Wilma drifts more northerly, I believe that is what is going to initiate the turns and a eastern movement
IMO, going to pull her out of the hole, so to speak
but hey, I'm an idiot, what do I know?




You might be right, but I just think it will stay too far south for that to happen. Another trough is supposed to be stronger and dig down later though.


Addicted2Cane
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:45 PM
Re: To The Moderators

All I have to say is.... MOVE ALREADY!!!! ..... much more of this and everyone will be fighting,,,, WHHHHIIIIIIIILLLLLLLLMMMMMAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!! I have had about all the coffee I can take, no hair left she needs to get jiggy with it and do something.... Feces or get off the pot!

Oh sorry everyone just venting it won't happen again.


Heather
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:49 PM
Re: Front Location

Don't know if this has been discussed or not, but with the current forecast track Wilma will be too close to Lake Okeechobee. I'm really concerned with my southern neighbors in Moore Haven, Clewiston, Belle Glade and Pahokee. Any thoughts on this?

Rdietch
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:50 PM
Re: To The Moderators

Quote:

All I have to say is.... MOVE ALREADY!!!! ..... much more of this and everyone will be fighting,,,, WHHHHIIIIIIIILLLLLLLLMMMMMAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!! I have had about all the coffee I can take, no hair left she needs to get jiggy with it and do something.... Feces or get off the pot!

Oh sorry everyone just venting it won't happen again.





Its kinda funny but i hope we argue till tomorrow with the storm over the Yucatan as that would mean its about done.I don't want harm to come to anyone so i don't forcast storms.I have ideas but i keep them to myself with that in mind the people in cancun im sorry you are taking more then your share at my expense.


But really till it turns NE nobody really knows much see ya guys and gals tonight later got to get meds refileed incase scott is right


Lake Toho - Kissimmee
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:50 PM
GOOD NEWS BAD NEWS

000
FXUS62 KTBW 221810
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
207 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...WILMA AND THE END OF SUMMER ARE NOW ON THE WAY...
...ROUGH WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THEN HAVE THE SWEATERS
READY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY)...WELL HERE WE GO. WILMA WAS SPINNING
SLOWLY ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN VERY NEAR CANCUN...
WEAKENED BUT STILL FORMIDABLE AS NOT TOO SURPRISINGLY THE STORM WAS
UNABLE TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO CAMPECHE PROVINCE BUT RATHER HAS
REMAINED NEAR THE COAST...AND LOWER TERRAIN...OF QUINTANA-ROO.

SOON...THE CYCLONE WILL EMERGE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF AND LIKELY
REGAIN CAT 3 STATUS FOR A SHORT WHILE BEFORE THE DEEP LAYER WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER AND BEGINS THE ACCELERATION PROCESS.
THE ACCELERATION WILL BEGIN IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...AND THE HURRICANE
WILL RACE THROUGH SOUTHWEST FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY.

THERE IS GOOD AND BAD NEWS HERE. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT CONFIDENCE
IS GROWING FOR A SOUTHWEST FLORIDA LANDFALL. THE BAD NEWS IS THE
EXACT LANDFALL POINT IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WHICH WOULD MAKE A HUGE
DIFFERENCE IN A VERY IMPORTANT HAZARD: STORM SURGE.

ON THE GOOD NEWS SIDE...FOR AREAS FROM SARASOTA COUNTY NORTHWARD TWO
HAZARD THREATS ARE REDUCED: STORM SURGE AND TORNADOES. IN FACT...
STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TIDES WELL BELOW NORMAL IN
THESE AREAS. ALSO...THE EVENT WILL LAST NO MORE THAN 12 HOURS...
PROBABLY 6 HOURS GIVEN THE RAPID ACCELERATION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
OTHER GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAINFALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH
SUNCOAST...THOUGH QUICK...WILL BE QUITE WELCOME.

NOW THE BAD NEWS. FIRST...WILMA WILL LINK WITH A STRONG
AUTUMN COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL ENHANCE WINDS AND SEAS WELL NORTH OF
THE CENTER...WITH HURRICANE FORCE GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS AND
BARRIER ISLAND BEACHES UP TO THE TAMPA BAY REGION. SO...FOR ALL
AREAS...EXPECT MINOR WIND DAMAGE RANGING FROM LOOSE ITEMS BLOWN
AROUND AND TWIGS/LEAVES OFF TREES TO PERHAPS MODERATE (OR MORE)
DAMAGE LEVELS CLOSER TO THE STORM AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
SHORELINES FROM TAMPA BAY SOUTHWARD. DETAILS WILL BE SPELLED OUT IN A
LIKELY HURRICANE STATEMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHEN WATCHES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE HOISTED FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
COASTLINE.

OTHER POTENTIALLY BAD NEWS IS THE MOST RECENT 12Z RUN OF THE GFS...
WHICH IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS HAS BEEN VERY ACCURATE WITH
LANDFALL VERY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RUN
NOW BRINGS THE CENTER OF WILMA TO THE CHARLOTTE/SARASOTA COUNTY
LINE...ALL THE WHILE RACING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THOUGH FAR TOO
SOON TO BUY OFF ON A SINGLE MODEL RUN...THE FACT THAT ALL MODELS
FAILED YESTERDAY TO PICK UP ON THE PLAIN MOMENTUM OF THE STORM
TO CARRY IT ALONG THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN SHORELINE...ALONG WITH THE
GENERAL "LOOK" ON WATER VAPOR WHICH SHOWS THE MIDWESTERN U.S.
TROUGH ELONGATING TOWARD AN EAST-WEST POSITION NOW AND A CHANNEL THAT
SUPPORTS A SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHWARD MOVEMENT LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO
THIS SOLUTION. SHOULD THIS VERIFY...THE THREAT FOR EMBEDDED
TORNADOES AND WORSE YET A TRUE "SURGE" OF WATER INTO LEE COUNTY
WOULD BE REALIZED. NOTE THAT THE SURGE WOULD BE REPRESENTATIVE OF
A HIGHER HURRICANE CATEGORY GIVEN THE SIZE OF THE STORM AND
EXPANSION OF HIGH SEAS...COMBINED WITH ACCELERATION.


I hope that clarifies things for some people. Good News, Bad news it up to you to decide. Excellent discussion though, by real weather people.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:53 PM
Re: Front Location

Don't forget that the cold front will be pushing all of the available warm air over into the Gulf of Mexico which might enhance the intensity of the storm when it gets back over water completely. I know that the warm water is the source of energy and the waters near the western coast of Texas Mexico have had a few days to recuperate.I am not looking forward to that 30mph forward push even if it is only a depression by that time.

ShelleyMcD
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:53 PM
Re: Interaction of Cold Front and Wilma after Florida Landfall?

Quick Intro: Longtime Lurker, and Serious WxJunkie (I must have been born during a Tornado watch, because I've been watching ever since). Thanks to everyone who provides this board with real technical knowledge, as well as the reminders that this is as much an art as a science.

That said--
Tampa media ran their nifty "VIPIR"- and I know it's probably not designed for hurricane prediction, but I couldn't help but notice something. The VIPIR has Wilma's eye landfall slightly north of NHC official track (not Naples like NHC, somewhere around Ft Myers), HOWEVER, the big rain event appeared to be in the north-northeast quadrant of Wilma, along the I-4 corridor from Tampa, up through Orlando, even with Wilma moving thru at speed. I assume this has to be because of interaction between Wilma and the cold front? Anybody know if there are other models or forecasters who support this? The weathercaster really didn't seem to make any big deal of it, but it sure looked like there was a possibility of some localized flooding.


engicedave
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:56 PM
Re: Front Location

Hugh, In my non-professional (but somewhat experienced) opinion, that's the starter

That will get her moving, the initial pop-out and turns, the other trough will be the accelerator


Joe
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 02:57 PM
Re: To The Moderators

Well after looking over the data going to stick my head out and go with a landfall similar to what Scott said above. I am going to go somewhere around Sarasota county area (Sarasota-Venice). Been kind of sticking with this the last few days and dont see any reason to change for now (much depending of coarse on how far north it gets in the Gulf?). Well written discussion per Tampa NWS which explains the situation rather well., including the latest GFS run which now has landfall near Sarasota/Charlotte county lines. GFDL has been somewhat consistent over the past day on landfall near Charlotte harbor, NOGAPS hanging on with landfall near the NHC's current forecast (Naples) and UKMET south of there in mainland Monroe county.

Lance Wilson
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:05 PM
Record breaking season - TS ALPHA at 5 PM

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ALPHA (AL252005) ON 20051022 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
051022 1800 051023 0600 051023 1800 051024 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.5N 68.5W 17.7N 70.8W 19.3N 72.9W 22.0N 74.5W
BAMM 16.5N 68.5W 18.0N 70.7W 19.7N 72.3W 22.4N 73.5W
A98E 16.5N 68.5W 18.1N 70.5W 19.4N 72.4W 21.3N 73.6W
LBAR 16.5N 68.5W 17.9N 70.3W 19.7N 71.9W 22.3N 73.2W
SHIP 35KTS 41KTS 47KTS 51KTS
DSHP 35KTS 41KTS 33KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
051024 1800 051025 1800 051026 1800 051027 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.6N 74.4W 38.9N 64.8W 37.7N 40.3W 28.1N 37.8W
BAMM 26.9N 72.9W 39.1N 63.4W 39.8N 40.8W 30.2N 33.3W
A98E 26.0N 72.2W 34.2N 63.9W 38.6N 46.5W 30.4N 31.4W
LBAR 26.5N 72.8W 42.1N 57.3W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 54KTS 57KTS 57KTS 39KTS
DSHP 43KTS 46KTS 46KTS 29KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 68.5W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 15.4N LONM12 = 66.4W DIRM12 = 287DEG SPDM12 = 13KT
LATM24 = 14.7N LONM24 = 63.6W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1005MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 40NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 40NM


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:06 PM
Re: GOOD NEWS BAD NEWS

Thanks for posting that, Toho...I think it should clarify a lot of things for a lot of people. It will be an interesting 2 days, that's for sure!

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:06 PM
Re: To The Moderators

Well looks like the NWS service in Tampa and Miami agree with what I said..and again, I wont know forsure until maybe even Sunday morning.. they even mentioned the storm conditions ( even if it stayed near FtMyers) of TS winds near TampaBay and Huricane force winds just south of there due to the expansion of the windfield......again , we dont know forsure yet. Any jog N in the models will bring it near the Bay...For now... Sarasota or Charlotte counties looks decent.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:07 PM
Re: Front Location

Quote:

Hugh, In my non-professional (but somewhat experienced) opinion, that's the starter
That will get her moving, the initial pop-out and turns, the other trough will be the accelerator




That's the NHC forecast, certainly... I just don't know if it will play out.
Looking at the IR loop... it appears that even though Wlima won't emerge off the coast officially for a few more hours probably, the eyewall is already beginning to reform, and it's gradually getting the doughnut shape to it again. Rapid intensification could be the order of the day when it is fully into the GOM.


Hootowl
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:07 PM
Re: GOOD NEWS BAD NEWS

This will be a long post will try to keep it as short as possible. This is a link to NWS Tampa Bay Area( there are more to be found for other areas in the state).

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tbw/html/tbw/

Here is a link to my area (just to show the info available) - Pasco County.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.ph...FL&site=tbw

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.ph...23&site=tbw

The info contained on these links is invaluable. The info will also update (change) as the situation warrants. All you need to do is check. STOP asking all these poor people on this forum to tell you what will happen in your area. Check with the official source.

With the main link you can access radar, forecast discussions and the tabular forecast (hour by hour outlook).
Hope this info helps those that are stressing. It helped me tons last year and was almost exactly the conditions we received during the storms.

My best wishes to all. Peace.
Dotty


dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:08 PM
Re: To The Moderators

given its 2 pm position. How far is it from emerging back out over water?

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:09 PM
Re: Interaction of Cold Front and Wilma after Florida Landfall?

VIPIR is a pretty reliable model that they run...last year they ran it with all 3 storms and they were almost dead-on. I know that they are concerned about the rainfall because of the cold front/tc clashing together, causing severe weather and rain, and that's probably where it will merge...so that's why they have most of the rain even in that area.
Only a couple more days to go and we will know for sure!


Geoff
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:09 PM
Re: Interaction of Cold Front and Wilma after Florida Landfall?

Quote:

...Tampa media ran their nifty "VIPIR"- and I know it's probably not designed for hurricane prediction, but I couldn't help but notice something. The VIPIR has Wilma's eye landfall slightly north of NHC official track (not Naples like NHC, somewhere around Ft Myers), HOWEVER, the big rain event appeared to be in the north-northeast quadrant of Wilma, along the I-4 corridor from Tampa, up through Orlando, even with Wilma moving thru at speed.




I've watched Channel 8's VIPIR for two hurricane seasons and it appears that when the storms get closer to us it is pretty accurate. I remember it was showing that change in direction for Charley earlier than any other model, and it was right on as far as the strange jogs that both Jeanne and Frances took when they were over our area. Additionally, this year I noticed that early on it was showing Rita as being farther east (closer to where it landed) when TPC was showing it more west.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:16 PM
Re: Interaction of Cold Front and Wilma after Florida Landfall?

Ill post more later tonight....anyways cya guys....RDIETCH ...AKA Ralph..LOL.........................

ShelleyMcD
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:18 PM
Re: Clear Yucatan and into Gulf . . . .

If I'm using Google Earth/the USDA distance finder/basic math all correctly:
at 2 mph and blessed with a fairly straight path (like that'll happen with Wilma), it looks like it's almost 10+ hours from the 2 o'clock til it's over water again?!? Yikes! But I think the NHC official track has it over water before 7 pm tonight.


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:19 PM
Re: GOOD NEWS BAD NEWS

A few thoughts...
My reasoning for the path of the storm broke down when the storm decided to drift onto land. I'll be the first to admit my forecast and reasoning did not pan out. But it was a reasonable position to take.

I mention this because people are getting a little snippy in here. This is NOT an exact science. People will get things right at times, people will get it wrong at times. if there is sound reasonining behind it, then please, do not disparage their logic or thought process.

If there is an underlying agenda behind their reasonining, then by all means, notify a moderator to keep an eye on them. If you want to ask them in private about it, that's fine as well. But when there is a (at the time) major hurricane, that could threaten the florida coast, people will become a little more... how shall we say, short tempered and excitable. Don't succumb to the temptation to react or overreact to what other people post.

We have a chatroom. That chatroom is great for people to just come in and ask questions. I fully expect people to come into the chatroom over the next day or two and relax and chat with each other.

Anyone who thinks tampa, or the keys, or anywhere is in the clear, may I remind you that the average margin of error for the NHC 72 hour forecast is 90 miles? that's their average, that means sometimes they're closer to hitting it, somtimes they're further from hitting it.

Now, let's concentrate on what matters the bloody hurricanes!

Speaking of which, why don't they have the other floater over TD 25 (25???? how in the world are we up to 25???)

-Mark


Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:20 PM
Re: GOOD NEWS BAD NEWS

The following is from the NWS MLB AFD

FINALLY...IT IS IMPORTANT TO REALIZE THAT ALL OF CENTRAL FLORIDA
LIES IN THE TRACK ERROR CONE. IF THERE IS A DEVIATION TO THE
FORECAST TRACK IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE TO THE LEFT (OR NORTH) THAN
TO THE RIGHT (SOUTH).

Full AFD


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:20 PM
Re: Interaction of Cold Front and Wilma after Florida Landfall?

Wilma is very close to being back over water.Now we will see if she gets stronger.They seem even more sure now that it will be mainly be a South Florida event.Everyone in the cone needs to watch it,But all the news I see says it should be South Forida.

Jamiewx
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:22 PM
Re: Interaction of Cold Front and Wilma after Florida Landfall?

Quote:

Wilma is very close to being back over water.Now we will see if she gets stronger.They seem even more sure now that it will be mainly be a South Florida event.




From the AFD out of Melbourne

DURING THIS TIME...WILMA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN A TRANSITION TO
A HYBRID/EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM AS IT FEELS THE EFFECTS OF STRONG
SYNOPTIC FORCING FROM MID LATITUDE TROUGH. AS A RESULT...WIND FIELDS
ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND MUCH IF NOT ALL OF CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOULD
EXPERIENCE AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS.


Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:23 PM
Re: To The Moderators

Quote:

given its 2 pm position. How far is it from emerging back out over water?




The center appears to be coming off the northeast coast now. She won't diminish to anything lower than she is now. Hard to tell, but looks like a slight increase in forward speed to the north the last couple of frames.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellit...amp;duration=10


Geoff
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:29 PM
Re: To The Moderators

Look at the last portion of the IR loop, it appears to me that she's winding back up again...better outflow and becoming more symetrical.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

...but I'm not saying it's heading towards Tampa


dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:30 PM
Re: To The Moderators

one more stupid question. I heard that when a storm converges with a front, the storm tends to slow the fronts progress and even stall it. Is this true?

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:31 PM
Re: Front Location

ACOE was just on FoxNews disucssing Lake O and they are convinced it will not be compromised so much as say NO. The indication is that drainage will happen rapidly and they are sdo concerned as to begin early drainage. We'll see, Broward does not look so good already?

native
(Weather Guru)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:32 PM
Re: Interaction of Cold Front and Wilma after Florida Landfall?

AHH...wind field get bigger!?! Good Lord...she's already got a huge windfield! I personally don't think there's any part of our great state that won't feel some sort of effects from her. (well maybe the extreme western panhandle has a better chance of little to no effects.)

I'm surprised that no one has mentioned what I'm about to mention: I'm ready to get this over with cause I can't wait to get some of that COOLER WEATHER! Forcast here where I live for Tuesday is high of 74 and low of 58!! WOO HOO! It'll be nice to have a little reprive from the heat & humidity.


FireAng85
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:38 PM
Re: Interaction of Cold Front and Wilma after Florida Landfall?

Amen to that Native!

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:38 PM
Re: Interaction of Cold Front and Wilma after Florida Landfall?

Actually, I believe I saw/heard of the Charley turn last year first from Steve Jervey/Jen Hill, and nobody else had mentioned it, may have missed it though. VIPIR to me seems to do a pretty good job for track

evergladesangler
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:38 PM
Cuba Radar

You can see the eye here is partially offshore and it looks to be slowly drifting north.

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB...(Animacion).gif


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:41 PM
Re: Interaction of Cold Front and Wilma after Florida Landfall?

Cooler weather will definately be a plus. Especially if there is no power. Worst thing after Charlley last year was the endless heat. Even when the storm arrives, I am not sure precise landfall will end up being as important. Unliess Wilma somehow really tightens up, her windfield should be pretty spread out. Plenty of wind and rain extending out in a large swath from the center.

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:41 PM
Re: To The Moderators

Would you agree for everyone to be cognizant that the H force and TS force will be out in front of the actual COC, not sure how much out in front they will be though. I guess if the storm is moving 20-30 MPH that would tell you?

Heather
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:43 PM
Re: Interaction of Cold Front and Wilma after Florida Landfall?

Yes, I noticed the cooler weather too. Will gladly take a rougher cold front this time to get rid of the heat and humidity!

twizted sizter
(Weather Guru)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:43 PM
Re: Interaction of Cold Front and Wilma after Florida Landfall?

I'll 2nd the woo-hooo for some cold air...it's muggy as heck here & I wish it would just hurry up & rain or something.

Not going to jump in about Wilma other than seems like the NHC track is a s close to spot on as can be...remember...we/they are only human & we're dealing with forces outside of our control.

Made my preps...bases are covered for worst case/best case...the majority of the state is in for rough weather like you said.

On another note...historical at that...we now have Alpha...what a season!!!


monkeymomma3
(Registered User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:43 PM
Re: Front Location

Hi, this is my first post-stumbled upon this site a few days ago and the information is great!!! I live in Broward and the flooding they are referring to is always prone to flooding-nothing new. Weather here has been cloudy, warm with the sun poking through. Havent had a huge downpour since about 11am or so. It is nice weather for shutter hanging and cleaning up. Wherever Wilma goes, I too am looking forward to the cool weather. At least if we lose power it will not be so bad. We lost power during Katrina for 2 days-nothing compared to other FL, MS and LA folks, however, it was HOT!!! So that is the silver lining in my cloud!!!

trinibaje
(Weather Guru)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:44 PM
Re: Interaction of Cold Front and Wilma after Florida Landfall?

Quote:

Yes, I noticed the cooler weather too. Will gladly take a rougher cold front this time to get rid of the heat and humidity!




Heather... i noticed you are in Sebring Florida... is there any reports of closure for monday for the Courts?


Rasvar
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:44 PM
Re: Interaction of Cold Front and Wilma after Florida Landfall?

VIPER has its plusses and minuses. I beleive it is a mesoscale type model, like MM5. It seems to do ok compared other short range models. I do seem to recall that jeanne had it completely flummoxed last year. Always wanted to keep it going up the coast for the longest period of time.

Mayor of Moronia
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:46 PM
Re: Need some advice....

Just for the record Charley did plenty of damage around Orlando in 2004. Plenty of trees were uprooted and many houses lost their roofs. My daughter lost her roof and had to replace all her carpeting. Lots of repairs.

FlaMommy
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:51 PM
Re: Need some advice....

anyone know if the 4pm advisory will be out before 4pm?....just wondering where i could find it before 4pm...thanks

Lance Wilson
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:52 PM
Re: Need some advice....

Quote:

anyone know if the 4pm advisory will be out before 4pm?....just wondering where i could find it before 4pm...thanks



That's 4 PM CDT, 5 PM EDT. Another hour until it comes out.


EMS
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:53 PM
Re: Need some advice....

Disclaimer: This is not a wishcast!

So - the BAMD and BAMM now trek over Tampa. The question - does Wilma follow Bam-Bam?

Sorry - with all the sniping going on today, had to make a feeble, corny attempt at humor.

Back to the storm - having a really hard time locating the COC. It seems from the Cancun radar that the outer edge of the inner eyewall is now emerging off the NE tip of the Yucatan. The IR loop seems to show a more easterly jog in the last couple of frames.

Thanks to everyone for all their good info today and always.


tpratch
(Moderator)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:53 PM
Re: Need some advice....

It'll be at or slightly before 5pm Eastern time. The 4pm timestamp is because it is in the Central timezone.

Updated graphic without any points. May add heading in an hour, but that depends on many things on my end.


Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:54 PM
TS Alpha

1. MikeC has a new thread up

2. NRL is reporting that Tropical Storm Alpha has formed - http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...es&DISPLAY=


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:54 PM
Re: Need some advice....

This link should be helpful

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2005_TWENTY-FOUR/webManager/last24hrs.gif


disneyfanfl
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Oct 22 2005 03:57 PM
Re: Need some advice....

It seems like the models (well, most of them) have been gradually creeping up the peninsula last night and today, yet the offcial track is pretty much where it's been all along. Is this because the NHC feels that the last few models aren't leaning the right way and they are thinking it's going to be well south of that? Or have they just not been sold on any northern landfall?

I'm wondering if the track begins at least a slight shift northward sometime soon?


Geoff
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 04:12 PM
Re: The Front Question

Does anyone have a good site that provides real time information on where the front really is? The only way I've been able to really track it is by the weather station buoy data, but there has got to be an easier way to see this data. I just don't think that the NWS graphic front line on the GOES loops is completely up to date. From looking once again at the buoy data versus their graphic, it appears that the front is farther north than their graphic shows.

I've looked at the WV loop and it gives me a feel for its location; but unlike the METS who can interpret that kind of stuff, I'm an architect so I need fancy graphics to look at


Heather
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Oct 22 2005 04:14 PM
Re: Interaction of Cold Front and Wilma after Florida Landfall?

Quote:

Quote:

Yes, I noticed the cooler weather too. Will gladly take a rougher cold front this time to get rid of the heat and humidity!




Heather... i noticed you are in Sebring Florida... is there any reports of closure for monday for the Courts?




I would assume everything will be closed Monday, but can only confirm schools are closed.


komi
(Weather Watcher)
Sat Oct 22 2005 07:40 PM
Re: Interaction of Cold Front and Wilma after Florida Landfall?

My wife working in FLA Hospital in Sebring, and they have meeting tomorrow @ 3 PM ... Will report here whats goin on ...


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