(Weather Analyst)

Sat Oct 22 2005 07:53 PM

Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan

NRL is reporting that Tropical Storm Alpha has formed:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...es&DISPLAY=

Tropics Guy

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 07:55 PM

Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan

Looking at the latest visibles, Wilma appears to be nearing the NE tip of the Yucatan, and is moving slightly faster now, though still very slow to the NNE. Rain bands are beginning to strengthen & build to the E and NE again, and I would not be surprised to see her strenghten to a low end Cat 3 again during the next 24 hours before she begins a weakening trend towards the Florida SW coast.
Think the NHC forecast is right on track with a Naples-Ft Myers area hit and being at a high end Cat 1 or low end CAT 2 at landfall IMHO.
Hope everyone in S. Fla is taking this seriously as I think there will be a large area of tropical force winds with Hurricane gusts in addition to the direct path area with sustained CAT 1 or 2 winds.

TG

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 07:58 PM

Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan

Cross-posting the graphic:

Will likely do a heading update when the next hours' radar image goes live.

HURRICANE EYE

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 07:59 PM

Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan

I beleive that her outer eyewall has partially been over water this entire time, this is why her structure has been intact, and that the ERC is halfway done by the colapsing of the inner eye wall seen on the microwave loop someone on here posted yesterday, sorry dont know how to post a url.

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:00 PM

Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan

Looking at some of the 18Z models on Accuweather[pay area], Most of the tropical suite shifted north for that run. MLB was hinting at at an error being to the north. Will be intersting to see what comes out of NHC at 5:00. All of the forecast paths had been running right through the middle of these models. Suspect there will be a slight forecast shift north. Not large. Probably parrellel to current track; but shift to north side of the Big O instead of south.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:08 PM

Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan

Not sure if this got posted in the old thread, but here is the latest recon (about 50 minutes old). According to it, the ERC has finished and it is just a matter of clearing out the remnants of the old eyewall. 75NM eye...and just 2 days ago we had a 4NM eye...wow.

You can also see the 75NM eyewall has a large portion of it over water: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...CT=1degreeticks

832
URNT12 KNHC 221942Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/1920Z
B. 21 DEG 20 MIN N
87 DEG 05 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2725 MA
D. 85
E. 135 DEG 35 NM
F. 221 DEG 81 KT
G. 136 DEG 51 NM
H. 957 MB
I. 11 C/ 3057 M
J. 14 C/ 3060 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C75
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1824A WILMA OB 08
MAX FL WIND 90 KT NE QUAD 1739Z
REMNENTS OF INNER EYEWALL ON RADAR.

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:12 PM

Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?wa...Weather+Outlook

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:14 PM

Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan

I actually made a comment to Colleen last night or maybe this am, who can remember, that it appeared that ever ever so SLIGHTLY they were shifting slightly N. Of course there could be more

KikiFla

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:16 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan

Now that we have Tropical Storm Alpha formed..... and with Hurricane Wilma in the near vicinty around the same time, does anyone have any idea how these 2 storms will interact with each other once they get in the Atlantic near the Bahamas????

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:17 PM

Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan

Quote:

Not sure if this got posted in the old thread, but here is the latest recon (about 50 minutes old). According to it, the ERC has finished and it is just a matter of clearing out the remnants of the old eyewall. 75NM eye...and just 2 days ago we had a 4NM eye...wow.

957 MB pressure after having been on land for several hours... impressive. Definately not as weak as it could have gotten.

laureg

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:19 PM

Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan

I have what I think is a great question...what if...next year we run through all of the names again (heaven forbid); do we start at Alpha again? What if we want to refer to the Alpha of 2005, 2006, 2007 and so on?

D3m3NT3DVoRT3X

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:19 PM

Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan

watching TWC right now .. and they havent called TD25 alpha yet strange i figured they would be first on it b/c they are doing things live today .. im in clearwater .. and weather its a lil south or a lil north from the projected path ... we are gunna have nasty weather monday with the cold front slamming into this strom .. @ noon on news channel 8 thier vipir system was showing heavy winds and rain .. all along the i-4 corider

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:19 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan

Quote:

Now that we have Tropical Storm Alpha formed..... and with Hurricane Wilma in the near vicinty around the same time, does anyone have any idea how these 2 storms will interact with each other once they get in the Atlantic near the Bahamas????

GFDL 12Z model run on 25L shows Wilma eventually absorbing Alpha:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:21 PM

The Front

[Sorry, I posted this after the thread switched, so here it is again just in case:]

Does anyone have a good site that provides real time information on where the front really is? The only way I've been able to really track it is by the weather station buoy data, but there has got to be an easier way to see this data. I just don't think that the NWS graphic front line on the GOES loops is completely up to date. From looking once again at the buoy data versus their graphic, it appears that the front is farther north than their graphic shows.

I've looked at the WV loop and it gives me a feel for its location; but unlike the METS who can interpret that kind of stuff, I'm an architect so I need fancy graphics to look at!

komi

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:25 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan

Is on the way to FLA now .. almoust offshore:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeflt.html

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:26 PM

Hurricane Force gust in Northern Lake County

Just to give us an idea of how big this storm is look at Mondays forecast for Northern Lake County. Not quite what people are expecting up here

Monday...Widespread rain and isolated thunderstorms. Strong winds. Rain May be heavy at Times. Highs in the lower 70s. Northeast winds 45 to 50 mph with gusts to around 75 mph becoming north 35 to 45 mph with gusts to around 65 mph in the afternoon. Chance of rain 80 percent.

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:27 PM

Re: The Front

I do not know of any better?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/mywxmap/chart.do?loop=true&requestId=1129914741763.716.3

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:29 PM

Re: Hurricane Force gust in Northern Lake County

please post a link rather than pasting 3 pages of content please. It's good info, but inordinately long. Thanks -Tom

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:29 PM

Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan

Boy, Accuweather sure has changed it's forecast path!! This morning they were almost in agreeance with TWC but now they have moved the center of their forecast track WAY north from earlier. FWIW, I never give much attention the TWC and Accuweather...prefer to stick with NHC, TYVM

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:30 PM

Re: Hurricane Force gust in Northern Lake County

Thanks for that info Jamiewx! I live in Mount Dora and honestly didn't think it was going to be that severe. I guess I better pick up my Halloween decor tomorrow........

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:35 PM

Re: Wilma Weakening over the Yucatan

Accuweather seems to be trying to stay with model consensus. Expect NHC to shift north. Doubt quite thaat far this time. Expect Hurricane watch from Tampa area south, too.

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:37 PM

Re: Hurricane Force gust in Northern Lake County

I know I heard and also read that the S side of the storm should/could be the worst due to the front, this model does not completely show that, only one model though

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/index_slp_s_loop.shtml

(Meteorologist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:39 PM

vortex

Pressure down slightly on the last recon... it seems to be holding its own for now. With a large eye, re-intensification may be slow to occur if it does at all.

(Meteorologist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:42 PM

Re: Hurricane Force gust in Northern Lake County

The south side of the storm should be the strongest because of the forward speed. Max winds should be much lower on the northern side of the storm, but there could be a wide area of strong tropical storm force winds to the north because of the pressure gradient in that area.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:44 PM

NHC Press Conference

Guys

The NHC has a press conference at 5pm. Sunsentinel has live video again.

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:49 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

at 5 PM EDT...2100z...a Hurricane Watch has been issued along the
West Coast of Florida from Longboat Key southward...and along the
East Coast of Florida from Titusville southward.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys...
including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay.

At 5 PM EDT...a tropical storm watch has been issued along the West
Coast of Florida from north of Longboat Key northward to
Steinhatchee river... and along the East Coast of Florida from
north of Titusville northward to Fernandina Beach

WXMAN RICHIE

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:51 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

That covers the whole state except the panhandle area.

NewWatcher

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:53 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

nhc news conference to be broadcast on cnn

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:56 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Thanks for the heads up...lets hope my computer doesn't decide to become finky when I watch it. I don't have cable so can't watch it on CNN

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:58 PM

Alpha forms

From the 5pm ET discussion:
"Alpha is the twenty-second named storm this season and overall makes the 2005
hurricane season the most active on record. "

That just sounds... crazy. But then again, this has been a crazy season.

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:59 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

NHC refuses to move the path north. what do they know that everyone else and the models don't?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 08:59 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

On TS and Hurricane, yes...But hurricane ONLY south of Tampa

Basically cutting off from I-4 South as "Hurricane" and I-4 North as "Tropical Storm"

With it being as wide as it s, that's to be expected. It would seem as if they're staying close to the original NHC track, with some confidence

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:00 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Buoy's 42039 and 42036 both are dropping in pressure over the last couple of hours now. Also, FoxNews is covering NHCPC

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:02 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

They still have plenty of time to move it. Does not surprise me that there was no move. What move that would have been likely was only a smal small move anyways. Still have 40 hours to landfall. Like I said before, I am not sure this storm will be the type that 20 miles makes a huge difference.

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:06 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

That's a little overly simplistic. Longboat Key is substantially further south than Tampa by about 2 hours by car.

Longboat Key is in south Manatee county. Just an FYI

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:08 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

max mayfield just said long boat was north of tampa....

having stayed at my Grandparents' house on Anna Maria Island (Due north of Longboat) for many years, I can say with precise certainty where Longboat Key is. -Tom

AndyG

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:09 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Longboat Key is approximately 50 to 60 miles South of I-4.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:10 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Guys it is important to look at your local forecasts from the NWS. My area (Lake County) is under a Tropical Storm Watch and we are forecast to get gusts to Hurricane Force.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:10 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Yes, it is simplistic.
But it is a good point of reference.

and according to this...
http://www.mapquest.com/maps/map.adp?sea...fl&zipcode=

It is just south of Tampa

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:10 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

They are sticking to naples, no not venice, not sarasota NOT FT.MYERS not punta gorda not port charlotte not bradenton..

But sticking to naples.... I'm telling you heads are going to roll if this thing hits way north of where they been predicting for what a week now? If it does hit where they say (key west/naples) then i will have new found respect for their forcasting of future storms.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:10 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Quote:

max mayfield just said long boat was north of tampa....

having stayed at my Grandparents' house on Anna Maria Island (Due north of Longboat) for many years, I can say with precise certainty where Longboat Key is. -Tom

im very sorry i just looked it up myself...so looks like i just payed for a hotel room we didnt even need....:(

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:11 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

According to Mapquest, Longboat Key is 60 miles south of Tampa, about 1 hour and 20 minutes.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:11 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Straight line, it's only about 30 miles from Tampa - coast between Bradenton and Sarasota.

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:12 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

About 20 miles south of the opening to Tampa Bay is Longboat Key. Just south of Tamapa Bay is about where I thought they would put up the watch. Current forecast looks fine for now. Plenty of chances to update it if models keep shifting.

EDIT: ANd for those nashing teeth, a hurricane watch is posted to all of those areas north. IE, Sarasota, Bradenton, Venice, etc. If people did not learn the lesson from last year, pay not attention to the line. Look to the cone, young man.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:16 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

you are correct!

Multi-Decadal Signal

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:16 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Max made a slip of the tongue. LB Key is ~15 N of Sarasota and is South of Tampa.

Kruz

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:17 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Does anyone have any thoughts on what happens when Wilma meets Alpha?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:18 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

They raised the likely intensity to CAT 2/ CAT 3 on landfall in the 5pm discussion.

I also find the 65 nm probabilities interesting:

KEY WEST FL X 16 12 X 28
MARCO ISLAND FL X 15 18 1 34
FT MYERS FL X 15 19 X 34
VENICE FL X 16 18 X 34
TAMPA FL X 8 21 1 30

(Storm Chaser)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:18 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

The fact that she is leaving the Yucatan sooner than expected maybe bad news for us here in South Florida.They seem confident with the projected path.Now starts the nail biting time,how strong will she get.Good news for Tampa.Also got a local Hurricane statement that says on this path there should be many tornados with Wilma.Good luck to all,and be prepared!!!!

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:19 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

I apologize to have sidetracked folks with my statements.

Anyone who can drive from Tampa to Longboat in the 90 minutes mapquest suggests gets a gold medal. Depending on the time of day and season of the year, the trip from I-75 to the beach can take that long by itself.

Your Mileage May Vary - See Participating Stores for Details.

--Tom

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:20 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

I would just like to comment on all of this bickering between people who live north of the forecast track and south of it. It seems to me that both of you are fighting over were it hits as if you went if to affect your local area. I guess there is a sent of excitement to a degree, but I would be much happier to see it dissipate.

You guys are worst then my kids

nobody is arguing about the forecast path - merely about the location of Longboat Key. The information is publically accessible and the matter has been resolved. No further discussion needs to occur along these lines, dig? - Tom

Storm Hunter

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:21 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

here's a map of longboat key....fl

Addicted2Cane

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:22 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

What can be expected where Wilma and the front come together, collide? Any ideas on what area of Fla or Gulf this may take place?
the front has lost a lot of its momentum. it'll just kinda string out across north central florida, and the hurricane will move along ahead of it. as it passes it will drag the front southward behind it a little. the actual 'collision' where the storm starts to phase into the westerlies and becomes associated with the front will happen further north off the east coast. -HF

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:23 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

i was just simply stating what max mayfield had said....and then got told that it wasnt north it was south....we are fighting...im very glad were not in the hurricane watch as of now...im more than glad...just upset that i just lost 65 bucks on ahotel room im not even gonna need now....so please dont say i was hoping it would come here...i wish it would just go into the sea and be a fish spinner but obviously that isnt goint o happen

jbmusic

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:26 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

I live in Bradenton and spent much time on Longboat Key it is is definailty south of Tampa

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:28 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

So if Max Mayfield through Longboat was north of Tampa not south, are the warnings in the wrong place

nope.-HF

(Storm Chaser)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:28 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

OK,Can we get off this silly topic.We do have a hurricane coming.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:29 PM

Wilma Recon

New recon - Eliptical eye 55-75NM; pressure up 1mb to 958mb.

016
URNT12 KNHC 222110
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/2041Z
B. 21 DEG 25 MIN N
87 DEG 04 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2720 MA
D. 50 KT
E. 225 DEG 40 NM
F. 319 DEG 90 KT
G. 224 DEG 36 NM
H. 958 MB
I. 12 C/ 3060 M
J. 14 C/ 3062 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. E36-75-55
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1824A WILMA OB 14
MAX FL WIND 91 KT NE QUAD 2050Z
REMNENTS OF INNER EYEWALL ON RADAR.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:29 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

very very good question.....can anyone give their thoughts on that....

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:29 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

I think what gets me most is when people say "such and such a location can breath a sigh of relief" or "this looks good for such and such a place" Truth of the matter is none of us in peninsular Florida can really breath a sigh of relief yet. This thing is going to make landfall on the West coast of FL somewhere...and most of us here are going to feel winds from Wilma. I just don't think it's prudent for anyone to say that Tampa is lucky or the Keys are lucky and such.

At any rate, I just looked at the wind swath forecast on the SFWMD website and it looks like with in 36 hours a good section of SW Florida from Tampa Bay south and east to Lake O and down through the keys will be experiencing TS force winds. Is the long agonizing wait finally over?

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:33 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

I'm leaving things in place because levity is good. However, *gulp* ralph is right and there is a hurricane bearing down on most of us here. The windfield is forecast to expand substantially before, at, and after landfall, so almost all of us will endure some form of elevated wind and rain.

So, hopefully the entire board now knows where Manatee county is in addition to where the hurricane warnings are. Please reduce the number of one-liner posts after this point here....

******************

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:34 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

People need to not get caught off guard by a Category 1 hurricane. Even if you have a hurricane of 100-110mph, and you add the hurricane's forward speed of 15-20mph when it gets caught in a trough, you're easily looking at Wilma producing frequent wind gusts of 130-140mph.

THIS IS A CATEGORY 3/4 HURRICANE FORCE! As Bryan Norcross likes to say on CBS, "always +/- one hurrricane category with intensity forecasts because they are not very accurate," especially with Wilma as we've been surprised more than once.

Prepare your home and land around your home for a category higher than the NHC forecast. This should be the case for ANY storm.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:35 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Usually, these late season storms eventually get incorporated into the frontal trough and become very vigorous extra-tropical storms. Wilma wil probably do that sometime after crossing Florida.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:37 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

For the love of God we are bickering over where the heck Longboat Key is? Gezz i just get home and you guys are going on about the watch area LOL so since i am 1 mile north of Longboat Key am i in the watch area or not?

i mean if you went west from my house you would be just north of there.So if my friends down the road 2 miles come to my house they are not in the watch area huh?

its funny but to me it finally puts a end to some of the forcasts that are out there.But im sure someone out there thinks it will be north of the watch area.

Either way ill go by them and move a block north to make sure im out of the watch area

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:37 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

I've been out and about and promise to check previous posts. BUT----I was wondering has the eye cleared land yet? Hugh--someone-- just tell me please then I'll start reading

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:39 PM

Re: Tampa to Longboat

When you drive, it takes forever-- you have to go out to I-75, and then back south. If you look at the map, LBK is not that far south of Pinellas-- it MIGHT be as much as 15 mi due south of the Sunshine Skyway onramp from the peninsula. I have friends who grew up on Anna Maria, and boated out to Ft. DeSoto as kids.

Even though we're on the north edge, I'm "clearing the missiles.*

(*Bringing in furniture/plants/misc toys>)

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:39 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

75% of the outer 75NM eyewall is over water, and the remnants of the inner eyewall hasn't really cleared land yet. I would say around the 8PM advisory, the exact center should clear land.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:39 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

harmlc.ath.cx

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:39 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Also people, lets not forget that Wilma will be interacting with a cold front, which will increase the threat of tornados north of the actual landfall.

** All schools and government facilities for brevard county are closed Monday **

I havn't heard anything about Orlando Counties (Seminole, Orange County). Anyone have any information on closures?

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:39 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Basically the bottom line is, if you live south of New Port Richey i would prepare for the worst. This storm is immense and will affect everyone along the west coast of Florida. I just read the eye is 50-75 nautical miles wide that is HUGE.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:41 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:41 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Looks like the center is right on the coast from the 2115 UTC vis sat pic.

Edit: Also, is that a NNE movement?

(Storm Chaser)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:43 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

People living in trailer parks have been ordered to leave in Broward County.No school in Broward Monday.Also no school in Miami-Dade Monday.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:43 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Is that dry air trying to come in to the southwest of the center? sure looks to me everything is getting blown off and also too the NE

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:45 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Inland Hurricane Wind Watch issued for Orange County including Orlando.

age234

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:46 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Quote:

I havn't heard anything about Orlando Counties (Seminole, Orange County). Anyone have any information on closures?

Well, I'm a student at Full Sail in Winter Park, and they're still hemming and hawing about what to do. They said they would decide by Friday, and that never happened because of all this weirdness going on. A bunch of students from up north are getting nervous and some are going to risk failing their classes for attendence and leave anyway.

[edit] Maybe this inland hurricane watch will make the decision for them...

Heather

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:48 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

There is also an inland hurricane watch in effect for DeSoto, Hardee and Highlands County.

That'd be me.

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:50 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

I went to Full Sail a few years back. Forunately that year was 2003 and was a slow season.

Last year they closed after Frances due to some damage I believe.

At any rate, Orlando is a pretty safe area and for now, I'd go ahead and plan on staying there unless the track moves to going straight across Orange county.

TampaSu

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:51 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
530 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...HURRICANE WILMA SLOWLY DEPARTING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT IS FOR ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL SHORELINES
OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...AND SARASOTA COUNTIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND TIDAL
SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...HERNANDO
CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR NON TIDAL
LOCATIONS OF LEE...CHARLOTTE...DESOTO...HARDEE...HIGHLANDS AND
SARASOTA COUNTIES.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR
NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF MANATEE...PINELLAS... HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...
PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?wa...Local+Statement

This should clarify the whole Longboat Key issue...

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:51 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Palm Beach Co., schools are closed monday (only).

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:52 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

For those of us in Pinellas County...
Do you think that the affects will be similar to Frances & Jeanne last year?
Better or worse?
Any thoughts would be appreciated

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/GFDL_18z/ghmloop.html

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/index_p06_m_loop.shtml

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:52 PM

18Z GFS and GFDL between Venice, Sarasota

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:54 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Even if the storm hits Orlando, no real reason to evacuate, unless you are in a poorly constructed building or in a mobile home. Might want to clear the possible missles outside. Otherwise, best to just get some food. maybe some candles and rid her out at home. That is my plan down here in Poincianna, unless I have to go to work.

Lee-Delray

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:54 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

I'm amazed how many of my neighbors aren't taking this seriously. I live in a development of 76 homes and maybe 20 +/- of us put shutters up. I know I'm preaching to the choir here, but why don't people take this serious?

Lee-Delray

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:55 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

At least when we loose power, it will be cool.

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:58 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Kind of an aside, almost seems like TBW and MLB have a slight difference of opinion. Would have thought Polk would have an inland hurricane watch since Orange and Osceola do. Even the experts seem to be unsure on this one. MLB might be a little extra cautious or believe the models more. no real idea on why there is a difference. Granted, MLB's discussions have been a bit more cautious the last few times. So there is no surprise on this to me.

Twistergal

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 09:58 PM

Re: Severe Weather Outlook for FL from SPC

Following is the latest information from NOAA's Storm Prediction Center regarding the potential for severe weather over the next couple of days in FL. Maybe this will give folks a little bit of clarity on the chances for severe thunderstorms, tornados, etc., in the Sunshine State. You can find info for the Day 1 and Day 2 outlooks at the following URL's:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:00 PM

Perspective

It is very sobering to me that this hurricane is going to landfall about 250 miles south of me and they are forecasting 50 mph sustained winds with hurricane force gusts....... I'm getting worried. If it inches north even just a little bit, I don't even want to think about that........

efaulkSWFLA

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:05 PM

Re: Perspective

For the "inexperienced" what is a good loop to refer to when you want to get an accurate update of the satellite? Everytime I want to get an update, I alway looks at a different type of image..lol

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:06 PM

Re: Perspective

Whoa... 18z GFS slides the storm further north. Inland @ Sarasota or so, then NE through Orlando.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_042.shtml

If this verifies, yours truly would've nailed this.... not that anyone cares... or that it's particularly germaine to the conversation. Might as well pat myself on the back while I can though.

age234

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:10 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Quote:

Even if the storm hits Orlando, no real reason to evacuate, unless you are in a poorly constructed building or in a mobile home. Might want to clear the possible missles outside. Otherwise, best to just get some food. maybe some candles and rid her out at home. That is my plan down here in Poincianna, unless I have to go to work.

Thanks for the tips, I'll pass them along. So do you think that, if she stays on the current track, the power would even go out in greater Orlando? The only hurricane I've been in was Jeanne, and the power didn't even flicker around here. What do you think Wilma will be like in comparison with Jeanne?

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:11 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Depends where you are in WP. All of those old trees and high winds don't mix well. Can really wreak havoc on the power grid.

I used to live in the UCF area of east orange (not WP but close). Last year with Charley I was out for 2 weeks.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:13 PM

Re: Perspective

*pat*

Looking at this WV loop, the first short wave has passed Wilma with the second short wave dropping from South Dakota.

Ronn

(User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:14 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Quote:

For those of us in Pinellas County...
Do you think that the affects will be similar to Frances & Jeanne last year?
Better or worse?

I do not believe that Wilma will be as bad for Pinellas County as Frances or Jeanne was, unless the storm moves farther north than expected. As of now, we are probably looking at tropical storm force gusts (45-55mph), but nothing more. If you recall, Jeanne and Frances both generated a strong onshore NW wind on the Pinellas coast that--because of unimpeded flow over the Gulf--gave us sustained TS winds with some hurricane force gusts during Jeanne on the immediate coast. When Wilma is at its closest, our winds will be from the east over land, thus we will not get a severe "backlash" on the coast. This, coupled with the fact that we will be on the weaker northern side of the storm, will probably result in only sustained winds around 30-35 mph with gusts to TS force. Of course, we still should be preparing for a direct hit , because we are still within the cone of uncertainty. Most likely, however, Wilma will come in a bit south of us...how far south remains to be seen.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:16 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Thanks Ronn

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:16 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Wow, in Lake County, Sorrento to be exact, we lost our roof and were without power for a week! Jeanne was harder on us than any of them!

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:16 PM

Re: Perspective

Put these in your favorites

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:18 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

My personal thinking is that she will be between Jeanne and Charley in Orlando. Closer to Jeanne and not anywhere near Charley. Given a year of regrowth, probably more powerfailures then Jeanne. No massive grid destruction, though. Maybe some 2-3 day outages at worst. That is based on current forecast.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:19 PM

Re: Perspective

Quote:

Whoa... 18z GFS slides the storm further north. Inland @ Sarasota or so, then NE through Orlando.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/fp1_042.shtml

If this verifies, yours truly would've nailed this.... not that anyone cares... or that it's particularly germaine to the conversation. Might as well pat myself on the back while I can though.

About the same as the 12z the GFS has been the north outliner all day today so until it gets new data it will stay there im sure.

jeangfl

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:21 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

I'm in Ft. Myers with reservations in Orlando for Sunday / Monday - does it look to anyone like we would be better off staying put? Thanks

ILoveflorida

(Registered User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:26 PM

Re: Perspective

Pulling up the official track on main page, It looks to my untrained eye as if Hurricane Wilma is riding the west side of the official track. Maybe due north. Is the map and track acurate or an estimate of position? And if so, what are feelings of track ajustment ?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:28 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

FYI, some friends of ours down in your area hedged their bets and got reservations in both Orlando and in Miami.

charlottefl

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:31 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

You need to look at your county's flood zone maps, if you live in a flood zone you don't have to leave your county just move to higher ground. Anything above 20 feet should be fine.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:36 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Looks to my untrained eyes everything weather wise with the storm is going NE and some dry air to the Southwest of it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:42 PM

Re: Perspective

It appears to me that the COC is right over the forecast point

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:44 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Quote:

Also people, lets not forget that Wilma will be interacting with a cold front, which will increase the threat of tornados north of the actual landfall.

Actually the cold front will help stabilize the atmosphere North of Wilma thus creating a less friendly environment for tornados. I know it's strnge, but when is weather not strange...

As for Pinellas County...I would prepare for a hurricane, but expect tropical storm conditions with a few gust close to (if not at) hurricane strength. REMEMBER! Tampa is not out of the cone nor is Orlando. There is still a fair chance that Wilma could pull more Northward and that would change everything.

I have looked everywhere and cannot find out anything about Pinellas County Schools on Monday. Does anybody know whether school is open or not?

(Meteorologist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:44 PM

Re: Perspective

Don't worry too much about the short-term motion with respect to the official track... the current motion is so slow that some deviation from the short-term track won't make much difference down the line. The orientation of the upper-level winds will ultimately determine where this hits Florida.

The latest GFS is a little faster with the landfall in Florida and a little stronger with the low. The most significant change is that the 18Z GFS brings a very intense extratropical or hybrid system into New England in 72 hours. The previous run kept it well off of the coast.

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:48 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Here she goes again I think I just heard an update on channel 4 here in davie florida that said it seems the eye is well over open waters now a bit earlier than they expected and that it seems to have taken the ne trend but it could be a wobble they will see over the next few hrs.
This storm has an attitude problem! The threat of tornadoes scares me with this one with the hot meeting the cold and all. Guy on channel 7 keeps saying that this storm worries him he believes its going to strengthen prior to landfall. It appears the track has shifted a bit north so you think it will stay that way? Is it possible is this is a ne trend that it could shift the trach back south a bit? All guesses are on with this one I suppose we will really know when she makes landfall:) Luck to all be safe.....

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:51 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

If you look at this
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-vis-loop.html

Seems pretty clear that the CoC is offshore as well as the eye looks fairly defined already

Creepy

damejune2

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:53 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Looked at that loop and looks like last frame has it going NE...could be just a wobble though.

(Meteorologist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:55 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

You're right about the cooler, more stable air north of the front not supporting tornadoes, but convective cells in the immediate vicinity of the frontal zone may have an enhanced risk or tornados, due to the increased low-level shear near the boundary, which may act more like a warm front or stationary front as the storm approaches. Anywhere from the frontal location and southward will have the greatest tornado risk. As SPC points out in their Day 2 outlook, the risk of tornadoes will increase sooner than it normally would with an approaching hurricane, thanks to the large wind field and increasing flow aloft, and may commence as early as tomorrow afternoon or evening.

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:55 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

HAHA anyone in tampa watching wtvt 13? I forget name of the weather guy on.. but vipir takes it through tampa and he played it off like it was below. and even seemed stunned/stuttering when he seen it . dont they look at this stuff before it's on tv?

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:55 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

LOCAL TORNADO IMPACTS...
TROPICAL CYCLONES MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE
A HISTORY OF BEING PROLIFIC TORNADO PRODUCERS...PARTICULARLY WHEN INTERACTING
WITH A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT. HURRICANE ISBELL PRODUCED AT LEAST 13
TORNADOES ON A PATH SIMILAR TO THE FORECAST WILMA PATH IN OCTOBER 1964. ALL OF
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH WILMA BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA. THIS THREAT WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY...AND COULD BE SIGNIFICANT AS THE STORM APPROACHES THE
STATE.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND MIDNIGHT.

(Meteorologist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:56 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

The last recon fix indicated a NE movement as well. though that is likely just a wobble.

dolfinatic

(Weather Guru)

Sat Oct 22 2005 10:57 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Pinellas county schools are anal. They will be the very last to close if at all.

(Weather Master)

Sat Oct 22 2005 11:00 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

I know this is not the case, it would be nice, any Mets/Mods/Prof know what happened to this Micro shot, watch this LOL

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2005_TWENTY-FOUR/webManager/last24hrs.gif

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Oct 22 2005 11:00 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Just caught the end of that. Probably walking the fine line between supporting NHC and what he sees. I'm not sure that VIPIR is all that accurate either.

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 11:07 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference- School Closings

I had to laugh-
Sarasota County EOC announced that tomorrow at 9 a.m. that there are four storm shelters opening - all of them schools.
http://204.193.113.203/ssDocuments/862/Storm%20Center/Media%20Releases/Wilma_alert_102205.pdf
At this point, Sarasota County Schools haven't announced anything, but common sense says that if the shelters are open Sunday, then there probably won't be classes Monday!

I couldn't find a listing for Pinellas being closed, but TBO has a good listing:
http://hurricane.weathercenter.com/
Then go to "Preparations by County"

nowhammies

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 11:10 PM

Re: VIPIR

Where does Vipir get its information? It was the VIPIR system last year that made me stop watching one of our local channels here in Orlando. the local metkept talking about the VIPIR track as if it was the only thinkg that had any validity - for Jeanne I think - He kept repeating that VIPIR took it north along the east coast ad out of our area. I think it was new to the station at that point ans it was very much like watching a kid with a new toy. When we turned to the station that they used at the time for just broadcasting the local weather - all it was showing over and over was the VIPIR track.

I think that for the most part all of thesse tools are a good thing, but in that case it gave out a lot of misinformation.

I also had a question - all of this talk of Tornadic activity - and reading the message that looked like some mort of weather breifing discussing it- should we expect to see this activity in advance of the storm or with it or possibly behind it. I know that no one can guarantee that information, but decisions need to be made in a lot of small local churches about whether it is safe to have people coming out or if the tornado risk is too high? I know thatthe storm weather should be no issue for toorrow, but I am unsure about this other factor

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 11:13 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference- Tampa 13 VIPIR

Was it really the CoC that 13 was showing coming north? The animations earlier in the day show a huge rain "bubble" to the north, basically tracking I-4, but the CoC looked to stay south, by say Ft. Myers? Does this make sense?

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 11:13 PM

Heads Up

It appears that part or All of Wilma's Center of Circulation is now off shore.

Sat loops are showing some rather Severe Convective Cells in the NE Quadrant. From Due North of the Yucatan to just West of Dry Tortugas.

Just North of 24N from 87w to 83W.

Based of the location and rapid buildup of these cells. I, personally think that the TORNADO Threat will increase offshore in the next few hours.

Moving Onshore in the overnight hours.
I'll check the Storm Prediction Center's site for updates.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 11:14 PM

Re: VIPIR

Actually, if you click on the word VIPIR on the message you posted (or this one) you will be taken to the Baron site and there is a link on how it works.

lawgator

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 11:25 PM

Re: VIPIR

Quote:

Actually, if you click on the word VIPIR on the message you posted (or this one) you will be taken to the Baron site and there is a link on how it works.

Anyone got a link to the actual run?

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 11:28 PM

Re: Heads Up

danielw:
Does that mean tornadoe chances increase tonigh?? Or tommorrow night?

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Oct 22 2005 11:30 PM

Re: VIPIR

Quote:

Anyone got a link to the actual run?

It was probably a locally initialized and produced run at WTVT. There is no link on their web site.

(Moderator)

Sat Oct 22 2005 11:41 PM

Severe Weather

I checked the Storm Prediction Center site.

As Of now-2336Z or 737PM EDT. There are NO
Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watches in effect, in Florida.

Please make sure that you are able to receive Local Watches and Warnings tonight. Either through a WeatherRadio or Radio and TV Emergency Broadcast Stations.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 11:46 PM

Re: Severe Weather

i've got my tornado warning alert on "blast"...will scare the **** out of the dog if it goes off though...lol

Quote:

I checked the Storm Prediction Center site.

As Of now-2336Z or 737PM EDT. There are NO
Severe Thunderstorm or Tornado Watches in effect, in Florida.

Please make sure that you are able to receive Local Watches and Warnings tonight. Either through a WeatherRadio or Radio and TV Emergency Broadcast Stations.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov

komi

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Oct 22 2005 11:47 PM

Re: Severe Weather

Some thunderstorms developing in central Florida, just north from Sebring right now: http://65.75.66.73/ktbw_compref124_current.jpg

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 11:50 PM

Re: Heads Up

OK If Wilma has walked on through to the other side I believe she'll stay north a bit and her speed will scoot up. I'm watching for a slow 18 wheeler turn here. Lemme know if you catch it first.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 11:53 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

now that is why i come to CFHC !!! nice graphic dude!!

Quote:

I know this is not the case, it would be nice, any Mets/Mods/Prof know what happened to this Micro shot, watch this LOL

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2005_TWENTY-FOUR/webManager/last24hrs.gif

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 11:54 PM

Re: Heads Up

unless you click on it within the next few minutes (or have a longer version of the loop) you can watch the visible on ramdis: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

she's just turned to the northeast

Quote:

OK If Wilma has walked on through to the other side I believe she'll stay north a bit and her speed will scoot up. I'm watching for a slow 18 wheeler turn here. Lemme know if you catch it first.

efaulkSWFLA

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Oct 22 2005 11:56 PM

Re: Heads Up

FYI -- 8PM is available

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 11:56 PM

Re: NHC Press Conference

18z GDFL Moves it back down to Naples again.I think these models just keep going 50-100 miles each way for 3 days now.

lawgator

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 11:58 PM

Re: Heads Up

Quote:

unless you click on it within the next few minutes (or have a longer version of the loop) you can watch the visible on ramdis: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_storm_relative_0.html

she's just turned to the northeast

Quote:

OK If Wilma has walked on through to the other side I believe she'll stay north a bit and her speed will scoot up. I'm watching for a slow 18 wheeler turn here. Lemme know if you catch it first.

Caught the last few frames. Eerie. Thanks for the link.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Oct 22 2005 11:58 PM

Re: Heads Up

Is it me, but on some of the loops, doesn't it look like she's already haulin' butt?

swimaway19

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:02 AM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Though the 18z GFDL moved south, the 18z GFS is still around Sarasota

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:02 AM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Interesting interaction with Wilma and front moving in going on

On lower levels Wilma drawing in circulation counterclockwise is making easterly flow in central GOM -- front has a bulge in it

In contrast in upper levels westerly flow from front is assisting in outflow all the way across Fl peninsula and well out into Atlantic

tashina

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:03 AM

Re: NHC Press Conference- Tampa 13 VIPIR

CNN just starting a special that will take you inside for an unprecedented look - Monster: Tracking the Storm. Doing the NHC now. (I'm on Central Time )

ChessieStorm

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:03 AM

Re: Heads Up

Does it look like the west/southwest eye wall has opened before completely exiting the coast?

Cloud tops in that area have warmed dramatically on the lastest IR sat. runs.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:04 AM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Quote:

Though the 18z GFDL moved south, the 18z GFS is still around Sarasota

Port charolte on the GFS and its been there all day.and the ukmet and the gaps are down there too.

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:06 AM

Re: Heads Up

Since no one posted the last recon (7pm EST...an hour old now):

916
URNT12 KNHC 222330
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 22/2302Z
B. 21 DEG 31 MIN N
86 DEG 58 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2745 MA
D. NA
E. NA
F. 135 DEG 87 KT
G. 038 DEG 31 NM
H. 959 MB
I. 11 C/ 3057 M
J. 14 C/ 3064 M
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C70
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1824A WILMA OB 23
MAX FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 2145Z.

---

As for the warming cloud tops, I noticed that a couple of frames back. It looked like it breifly opened, but it's now looking like its closed again.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:06 AM

Re: NHC Press Conference

I see that as well,"the bulge" Is that due to Wima?

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:07 AM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Quote:

Port charolte on the GFS and its been there all day.and

Actually the 18z GFS moved north and is showing a Sarasota landfall.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:10 AM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Quote:

Quote:

Port charolte on the GFS and its been there all day.and

Actually the 18z GFS moved north and is showing a Sarasota landfall.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_model.html

I know where the model run is and if you look on a closer map that is not Sarasota that is Venice North Port.Does not matter anyway its 1 model of 5 they use mostly and someone has to be the north outliner.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:10 AM

Re: NHC Press Conference

At this late in the game...why would the GFS be off from what every other model is? I know the model thing is pretty complex, but the GFS is a reliable model isn't it??

HanKFranK

(User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:12 AM

structure

this evening a dry slot has punched out the southwestern cdo of wilma. the storm has what appear to be three wind maxima as well. historically systems that get addled by land this much have a tough time getting their inner cores together. earlier this season dennis and emily did it during the 24-36 hours after moving back offshore from first landfalls of about the same duration, but that was for july systems not moving into a marginal shear environment. ssts were also warmer. i'd say it's fairly safe to say that wilma won't bomb down to 940mb overnight. the pressure is actually slowly rising as the last effects of land continue to weaken the core... that should end in the next few hours. with the multiple wind maxima configuration, getting the storm to tighten back up may not happen.. if it does it shouldn't start until tomorrow day. the upper air configuration will allow for reintensification; 3 as the official says is likely, and a 4 is possible if wilma were to markedly improve. i'd say the 2/3 landfall prediction for the nhc is most reasonable.. it's the same range i was 2-3 days ago and that'll work. personally i'd look for 945-955mb. gonna keep it pegged on fort myers, especially since later guidance has crept up north of there. after florida some of the modeling continues to phase the storm into a powerful hybrid gale that is intermittently shown to crash into cape cod/maine. the consensus is still offshore.. but i'm sure that the local weather offices up there have been talking around about the possibility that keeps haunting them and things will be ready to roll if watches start popping up there in a couple of days. they're getting an early noreaster type storm about now, and i'm sure that the soaking they got earlier this month still has the hydrology up there in overdrive.
think the nhc jumped the gun with alpha, to be honest. they'll often get a 2.5 and wait another advisory cycle for persistence or for a plane to recon it. the ship report they were referencing in the disco wasn't conclusive evidence. been watching it on san juan longe range radar and it isn't the most impressive system (unless they're getting radar velocities that support t.s. winds). i really wish they'd be consistent, because a system with similar to sometimes better structure in the pacific last week remained a depression.
HF 0011z23october

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:12 AM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Seems whenever they load data of current conditions into the GFDL it moves north, whenever no data goes into model, it moves south. Not sure what that tells you..

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:13 AM

Re: Heads Up

Quote:

Does it look like the west/southwest eye wall has opened before completely exiting the coast?

Cloud tops in that area have warmed dramatically on the lastest IR sat. runs.

actually, what you had there all along is a double eye-wall structure... the inner one spent the last 24 hours, bodily inland and therefore is finally subcumb and is in the process of probably decaying altogether... Meanwhile, the outer eye-wall only was half situated on land, the other half was out over the warm fuel source and was therefore able to sustain much of the landfall process - being also that in all, this means that process was imcomplete...

from here, it is uncertain whether this will get stronger when it moves back over the Gulf but that definitely seems more plausible than not... the loop current still holds substantial heat content and this is modeled to pass straight over the top.. also, since wilma will be accelerating, there is a chance that her storm relative shear will be less than the environmental shear... so, a few factors suggest that this outer eyewall will be contracting given time; not a certainty.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:14 AM

Re: NHC Press Conference

I know I might get banned for this reply BUT......weren't you focused on Naples a bit back? But then again I may be wishcasting a bit more north. I will hush up now as I need to sleep while she boogies....

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:14 AM

Re: Heads Up

When you see a Vortex Message posted. Here's the main areas to watch.
H. 959 MB-watch the pressure
I. 11 C/ 3057 M
J. 14 C/ 3064 M-temperature inside the Eye
K. 14 C/ NA-dew point inside the Eye
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C70-very large EYE (70 mile wide Tornado)
MAX FL WIND 93 KT NE QUAD 2145Z.

MissBecky

(Weather Guru)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:15 AM

Re: structure

HankFrank, if Wilma does make it back up to a Cat 4, what do you think her intensity will be at landfall? Will she drop down to a 2, or is it more likely she would be a 3? Thanks.
2/3. if it reintensifies it'll probably do it into an asymmetric kind of storm... lots of dry air worked in while it was over land, eroded away a third or so of the inner core. once the storm starts moving faster it should start dealing with it... maybe start redeveloping in similarly lopsided fashion. like danny says, watch the pressure. -HF

(Weather Guru)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:17 AM

Re: Heads Up

What does the" 70 mile wide Tornado" mean? just curious

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:18 AM

Re: NHC Press Conference

Quote:

I know I might get banned for this reply BUT......weren't you focused on Naples a bit back? But then again I may be wishcasting a bit more north. I will hush up now as I need to sleep while she boogies....

I don't forcast but i say where the models are but never do i say i think its going here or there to me that is bad luck and i don't need any

(Weather Master)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:18 AM

Re: NHC Press Conference

To be honest as stated earlier and also yesterday, it seems GFS has been more north

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:19 AM

Re: Heads Up

excellent call

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:20 AM

Re: structure

Help us newbies: Please explain "multiple wind maxima"-- I tried to get a definition but can't seem to google one anywhere, no even on nhc.

Thanks!

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:21 AM

70 miles wide

a 70 mile wide path of destruction. If she were over land right now.
Charley was 10-14 miles wide and Katrina was 30miles wide when she made landfall in Mississippi.

Larger Eye= Larger path of destruction and or devastation. Her Eye diameter will probably change prior to Landfall. But I can't recall ever seeing a 70 Mile Wide EYE.
That's usually something that is seen during Eyewall Replacement Cycles-ERC.

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:21 AM

Re: Heads Up

daniel -- Those cells are forming over the warm waters of the loop current.

Re continued questions on why NHC hasn't moved their forecast path...they never move the forecast path unless they have a good reason.

(Weather Master)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:22 AM

Re: 70 miles wide

Wilma has been a freak all along, most narrow eye, then the widest, what next?

Ronn

(User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:24 AM

Re: structure

Quote:

i really wish they'd be consistent, because a system with similar to sometimes better structure in the pacific last week remained a depression.

A question.....I know that the 2005 season now officially passes 1933 as the most active season in recorded history. However, due to better observations and satellite technology, is it unreasonable to conclude that 1933 could have had more storms than just 21? I think that many borderline tropical storms that are classified today as a result of more accurate and frequent observations, would have otherwise escaped classification in former years.

yeah, exactly. take a look at the track of lee, or maybe the flurry we had in the bay of campeche. don't think all of those would have been classified in '33. but far as recorded numbers go, this is the bigun. -HF

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:28 AM

Re: structure

I would say that's a fair assumption

Probably very accurate

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:34 AM

Re: structure

"Multiple Wind Maxima" normally refers to recon flight data in which the plane passes through more than one area with high speed winds.

example. 65-75 mph points A-F
100-110mph points G-I
75-85mph points J-M
110-130 mph points N-P
normally the Eye would come next where the wind typically drops down to near 10mph.
The wind speeds during the remainder of that flight leg would be in reverse.
Hi-lo-Hi-lo and so on.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:35 AM

Titan from ABC Tampa

Go to this link:

http://www.abcactionnews.com/weather/index.shtml

Click on:

Latest Accu-Weather update

The interesting thing about Titan is the heaviest part of the storm looks to be the north side, with landfall around the Caloosahatchee River, Fort Myers.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:36 AM

Re: structure

The other assumption could hold true also. That they counted storms twice. Meaning they die out and reform and give them a new name.

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:39 AM

Re: Titan from ABC Tampa

Please Be VERY Careful with the VIPER and TITAN forecasts.
While I have seen some products that were very accurate. The NHC Advisories are the Official Product and you should use them as the Baseline.

Local NWS Offices would be the next line of information.
The advantage of the Viper and Titan systems would be that they give more frequent updates.

DebbiePSL

(Weather Guru)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:39 AM

Re: 70 miles wide

Quote:

a 70 mile wide path of destruction. If she were over land right now.
Charley was 10-14 miles wide and Katrina was 30miles wide when she made landfall in Mississippi.

Larger Eye= Larger path of destruction and or devastation. Her Eye diameter will probably change prior to Landfall. But I can't recall ever seeing a 70 Mile Wide EYE.
That's usually something that is seen during Eyewall Replacement Cycles-ERC.

I thought I heard that the eye of Frances was about the same Daniel? Maybe I am wrong but I do know Frances was huge.

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:41 AM

Re: Titan from ABC Tampa

That sounds like what VIPIR on 8 and 13 was showing: the CoC about Ft. Myers, exiting over by Melbourne, and HEAVY rains along the I-4 corridor.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:42 AM

Re: Titan from ABC Tampa

Quote:

Please Be VERY Careful with the VIPER and TITAN forecasts.
While I have seen some products that were very accurate. The NHC Advisories are the Official Product and you should use them as the Baseline.

Local NWS Offices would be the next line of information.
The advantage of the Viper and Titan systems would be that they give more frequent updates.

I just posted that because someone earlier asked for a link. I don't know much about it and wouldn't rely on it.

No problem with the post. Just clarifying sources~danielw

jeangfl

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:42 AM

Re: Titan from ABC Tampa

How accurate is this radar that you are referring to? I live 1/8 mile south of the Caloosahatchee River - this is scaring me -

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:44 AM

Re: Titan from ABC Tampa

Quote:

How accurate is this radar that you are referring to? I live 1/8 mile south of the Caloosahatchee River - this is scaring me -

I wouldn't put much stock in that. It shows the heavier side being the north side which doesn't seem right.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:49 AM

Re: Titan from ABC Tampa

Quote:

Quote:

How accurate is this radar that you are referring to? I live 1/8 mile south of the Caloosahatchee River - this is scaring me -

I wouldn't put much stock in that. It shows the heavier side being the north side which doesn't seem right.

Have you looked at Wilma lately? The north side is where the action appears to be to me, at this point. Of course the south side is still partially over land, so that might explain its weakness.

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:50 AM

Eye Formation

It's been about 74 minutes since the last Vortex.

Satellite imagery through 0015Z. It appears that Wilma is consolidating her EYE. I see what looks to be a smaller Eye forming near 22.0N and 86.3W.

Follow the open eye area over the tip of the Yucatan. Now go NE folling the curve. There is an area in the center of the Northern semicircle that appears to be the Center of Circulation now.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:53 AM

Re: Eye Formation

I'm going to go in and update my graphic, but looking at the cancun radar, and having looked about about 100 consectutive graphics of it, I'd have to say that it almost looks like the "developing" COC is actually the previous eyewall. Although not a strong (green with smatterings of yellow in what used to show yellow/red), it certainly held together as a cohesive, distinct area far beyond what it should have.

The 70nm eye was the outer wind maxima that held constant during the past 36+ hours or so.

I'll update my graphic and then we can see if we're both describing the same thing.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:53 AM

Re: Eye Formation

You can see it on this link pretty good. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-wv-loop.html

dolfinatic

(Weather Guru)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:53 AM

Re: Eye Formation

could that still be a remnant of the inner eye it had a while back?

ChessieStorm

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 12:56 AM

Re: Titan from ABC Tampa

I think it is showing more action north of the center due to it merging with the cold front coming down, thus making it a hybrid system and the wind field expanding.

This warm air overflowing on top of the cool air behind the front causing more rain in that area.

But that is just Titan and Viper, just predictions.

Mayor of Moronia

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:00 AM

Re: structure

Hurricanes cover a large area. It's unlikely a storm could evade ship and air traffic even in 1933. Of course, there is always an Admiral Halsey who steers his fleet through the center of the same typhoon twice.

full hurricanes maybe. of course sometimes they form well out in the eastern atlantic and die out there, and then there are questionable-nature storms in the subtropics... and the very weak or very flash-in-the-pan storms that move onshore in central america. there is a distribution bias in the historic database (i.e., number of storms on average in different parts of the basin in satellite/modern era vs. the older period). suggests the older data is missing some. great handle by the way. -HF

iuhoosiers

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:02 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

IS IT JUST ME, OR DOES IT LOOK LIKE WILMA IS NOW TURNING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST!!!!

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:09 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Quote:

IS IT JUST ME, OR DOES IT LOOK LIKE WILMA IS NOW TURNING TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST!!!!

It's probably not just you. However, in the last several IR images, the orientation of Wilma has actually slanted more poleward, in my opinion. I'm not talking about the COC because I'm having a hard time locating the exact COC on the IR loop, but the elongation from SW to NE that was present earlier has tilted more toward a N/S orientation, it appears. I think some (most?) models forecast a northward track before the northeast turn, and this is probably what is happening.

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:10 AM

Turn??

I'm getting a jump in the satellite frames. Missing data.
So I'm doing a two frame loop. From 1715Z to 0045Z.

Here's my observation. The open 'eye' area that you see. May be the old eye, and relative to the Southern side of the storm.
The new eye feature that I refered to, is offset to the east of the Southern semicircle.
So I see the south half, with the old eye in the middle.
And the north half with the new eye in the middle.

Now take the north half and slide it east until the outer edge of the heavier color is even with the old eye.
I hope that makes sense.

Not a sheared look. But more of a eye reformation type look.

edit-now that I'm getting new frames. My description above doesn't carry through.~danielw

Jonathan Franklin

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:10 AM

Re: Eye Formation

This link is a little closer in, and provides a fair view, as well:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

(Meteorologist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:19 AM

Re: Eye Formation

Based on the radar, there is still some activity associated with the old inner eyewall. Also, it appears that there could be a another wind maximum just outside of the 70 mi-wide eye feature, as I believe HF mentioned earlier. It may take awhile for Wilma to develop a consolidated inner core and restrengthen, or it may never do so and stay as a broad cat 1-2 hurricane for the duration.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:22 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

This is for everybody who is nervous about tornados. I hope this will give you peace of mind...
from the Hurricane Local Statement

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO BE NIL FROM TAMPA BAY
NORTHWARD...AND LOW SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
NORTH WINDS USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ENSURE STABLE CONDITIONS
FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE STORM WHERE TROPICAL AIR IS MOST
ABUNDANT.

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:24 AM

Re: Turn??

Okay - it was difficult tracking the COC on some of the recent frames, but it's much, much easier now that she's over water again. I also threw this together, so I could've spent more time analyzing before plotting the center. I have time to give this regular loving, but not enough time to make it 100% accurate. Consider it like the pirate's code for now

I dimmed old points (but left them for the intellectually curious) and will likely kill the "full" heading as it would depend on an arbitrary point, and she's moving against prior points plotted.

laureg

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:25 AM

Re: Turn??

We got a call here from the St. Lucie County School Board automated system that school is closed both Monday AND Tuesday (since the schools are the shelters here).

Anyone want to tackle my question from before about the affect Lake Okeechobee would have on the system if it were to pass directly over it? Was a topic of discussion at work yesterday.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:29 AM

Re: Turn??

Thanks for keeping us posted

HanKFranK

(User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:31 AM

okeechobee

water there isn't deep enough to really do anything for the storm. it would represent a reduced-friction zone, so that winds moving across it at the surface would accelerate as compared to winds over normal terrain. negligible effects overall, but probably an extra pain-in-the-butt if you happen to live a little upwind of the lake.
the '28 hurricane that killed so many people piled water up on one side of the lake and topped the levees... flooded some farming communities that were set up in the fertile floodplain. levees today are much higher and it would take a very strong hurricane moving just right to overwash them.
HF 0131z23october

Genesis

(Weather Guru)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:34 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

The GOES Floater IR-4 channel clearly shows motion of the COC NE in the last several frames. If this keeps up there's no way this thing is going in as far south as Naples.

The trough axis and features involved in it are really quite cool -and complex. There's a clear low now roughly off the MN/SD border diving southward, which looks to amplifiy that trough. The surface frontal boundary is now roughly over Tampa, BUT it has lifted north and east - the tail of it is over Tampa, with almost none of it in the gulf itself. This leaves the amplification behind it to steer Wilma, and there is now a weakness appearing to form further north by 100nm or so - looks to be over Cedar Key, roughly, in another 6 hours or so.

I do not have any expectation that Wilma would get drawn up THAT far north, but I would not let my guard down anywhere on the west coast, as I've said repeatedly. I am definitely not buying the "depressed southward" type of path with any sort of certainty, although I'm also not going to say that it WON'T happen either.

If the amplification tilts the trough axis and drives it southward, which, by the way, jives with the local forecast for overnight lows and daytime highs starting tomorrow night and into Monday then I would expect a more N-S axis on that trough. This would tend to reinforce a NE rather than ENE track.

I suspect you'll see a consolidation of the models with the ingestion of the next batch of data containing the movement off the coast; I wouldn't expect to see this fully developed in terms of model support until the morning hours - the 00Z updates won't have the data set to work with, so it will be the 06Z and later runs that IMHO will have the best read on this situation.

I still believe the highest risk area is from Sarasota to Tampa, which is the north half of the cone. This is consistent with where they posted watches though - they've got watches up all the way to Cedar Key it appears.... so if you go by the "watch box", I'm looking "right up the middle" (same place I was a couple of days ago!)

Now if we see an ENE bend in the next six hours or so then the black-line looks more probable - that is, more towards Naples. Note that no matter WHERE it goes the Tropical Storm Force winds now extend 200nm out from the center - which puts almost the entire west coast under the gun for at least some impact. Further, if that front lifts North, as it looks like its doing, you won't get the protective value of it north of the frontal boundary as it won't be there!

Let's see how the actual path develops once the circulation has had a few hours over water and a motion trend has been established. Until then, please - do not let your guard down anywhere along the west coast and in the Keys!

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:36 AM

Spin

MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
925 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

...A SPECIAL MARINE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1000 PM EDT...
FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS...
WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST 20 TO 60 NM WEST END OF THE 7 MILE BRIDGE TO KEY WEST OUT 20 NM GULF SIDE OF THE LOWER KEYS OUT 20 NM

AT 923 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS...
ABOUT 24 MILES SOUTH OF RAMROD KEY...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR WATERSPOUTS TO FORM IN THE WARNING AREA.

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:38 AM

Re: okeechobee

Regardless of what Wilma does or is doing she scares the patudies out of me.
Tornadoes are not welcome at my manufactured home thank you and she is just doing things that i have never really seen a hurricane do, at least not all of them in one hurricane. Regardless of landfall, from Tampa to the Keys I think we all need to treat this one as a very serious and unpredictable storm who is having a bad day and intends to vent her frustration on our penninsula! So get ready, shutter, board, stock pile and be prepared no matter where the track takes the landfall. Stay Safe all....

iuhoosiers

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:39 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Genesis, it wasn't supposed to turn to the northeast till early tomorrow morning, so turning early now means it will go further sount

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:40 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Quote:

This is for everybody who is nervous about tornados. I hope this will give you peace of mind...
from the Hurricane Local Statement

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
THE THREAT OF TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO BE NIL FROM TAMPA BAY
NORTHWARD...AND LOW SOUTH OF TAMPA BAY...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
NORTH WINDS USHERING IN MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ENSURE STABLE CONDITIONS
FROM TAMPA BAY NORTHWARD. THE MOST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE STORM WHERE TROPICAL AIR IS MOST
ABUNDANT.

That statement out of TBW appears to be in direct conflict with Melbourne's Hurricane Local Statement. Now i am getting a little confused.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:47 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Huh...thats odd. I wonder if they know that their statements conflict. You would think that the NWS service would be in sync with that kind of stuff especially with a hurricane about to make landfall on the U.S

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:50 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Ya you beat me to the post as how does it turning early to the NE make it a Sarasota Tampa storm?

I really have to bite my tounge and just be quite before i get banned for what i say but you got the idea.

Also there are no watchs for above Sarasota other then Tropical Storm the Hurricane watch is Sarasota south ok.

komi

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:50 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

TampaBays10.com live streaming doppler !
Not too big screen 160 Kb/s ...

http://tampabays10.com/weather/doppler/speedera_doppler.asx

(Weather Master)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:53 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Not sure if anyone has heard, off the AP wire and Mexican Gov. Playa Del Carmen destroyed, water up to the 3rd floor in most hotels, over 1,000, home destroyed

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:53 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Quote:

Genesis, it wasn't supposed to turn to the northeast till early tomorrow morning, so turning early now means it will go further sount

No...further North because the front (which was "protecting" the wc and nw penninsula)is now retreating to the North which would allow Wilma to take a more Northerly path.

Haven't heard from the mets in awhile...probably pretty busy

JMII

(Weather Master)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:54 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

With they eye so wide right now (70nm?!?) how can anyone be sure what direction she is going. It could be a wobble or just part of the reintensification. I'd bet the eye jumps around alot tonight, keep in mind the back quarter of the storm is still over land. If you run the water vapor loop with the forecast points and lat/lon overlays it looks to be on target to me.

Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

CaneTrackerInSoFl

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:54 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Over 65 inches of Rain have fallen in some areas of the Yucatan. Isn't that incredible?

(Storm Chaser)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:55 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Just in from TWC,Playa del Carmen is destroyed.I don't see ANYTHING that takes the storm center near Tampa.If anything she is turning NE now,and that would mean a more southerly path.Why are some,trying to will it to Tampa?

They aren't trying to will it to Tampa. They are just "what if she does move more toward the NE than ENE."
No one wants to Get Hit. Or even a near miss from WIlma..~danielw

(Weather Master)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:55 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

That should come up in your WMP, you can then right click and select Full Screen

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:55 AM

Melbourne HLS

This was issued 20 minutes after the Tampa AFD.
HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
550 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005 (edited~danielw)

...TORNADO IMPACTS...
LATE SEASON TROPICAL CYCLONES APPROACHING FLORIDA FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO HAVE A GREATER RISK OF PRODUCING STRONG TORNADOES ESPECIALLY WHEN INTERACTING WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND FAST FORWARD SPEED AS IS ANTICIPATED WITH WILMA. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH OUTER RAINBANDS SUNDAY AND THEN TORNADO THREAT WILL INCREASE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND BE THE HIGHEST WITH THE APPROACH OF THE CENTRAL RAINBANDS OF WILMA EARLY MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. TORNADO WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED ON SUNDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR THE ISSUANCE OF TORNADO WARNINGS SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND TAKE THEM SERIOUSLY.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HLSMLB&max=10

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HLSTBW&max=10

This is from the Miami NWS Hazardoud Weather Outlook at 602PM EDT tonight.
TORNADOES: LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WILL CREATE A SLIGHT RISK OF TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HWOMFL&max=10

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:56 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Quote:

Quote:

Genesis, it wasn't supposed to turn to the northeast till early tomorrow morning, so turning early now means it will go further sount

No...further North because the front (which was "protecting" the wc and nw penninsula)is now retreating to the North which would allow Wilma to take a more Northerly path.

Haven't heard from the mets in awhile...probably pretty busy

The winds in the gulf are as expected.Just talked to a met locally here since i read this post and he said not true the front and winds are about where it is suppose to be so take these post for what they are.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:56 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

OMG!!!! From Wilma alone... or from other storms as well??????

(Weather Guru)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:57 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

What?

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:57 AM

Re: Melbourne HLS

The 6 hour trend is the result of the rather large wobbles (or errors in my plotting of the center). I believe the 1 hour is accurate and the 4 hour is indicitive of the overall trend at present.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:58 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Oct 23 2005 01:59 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Quote:

Ya you beat me to the post as how does it turning early to the NE make it a Sarasota Tampa storm?

I really have to bite my tounge and just be quite before i get banned for what i say but you got the idea.

Also there are no watchs for above Sarasota other then Tropical Storm the Hurricane watch is Sarasota south ok.

Not sure if you are referring to the Southern Peninsula, but Indian River, Brevard, Orange and Osceola counties are under a Hurricane Watch, and they are north of sarasota.

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:04 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Remember that the storm will cross the state in a NE fashion, so for the East coast counties NE of Sarasota to have warnings is not an anomoly. It is to be expected.

As for the NE turn leading towards a further south track. In theory, perhaps, but the reality is that there are so many variables in play here that the early turn alone is not cause to expect the models to suddenly point back towards points south.

As others have said, the reason the NHC hasn't really expanded or changed their track is simple: until she left the Yucatan, there was really no way to have confidence in a forecast. Now that she's leaving the Yucatan, everything needed to get better solutions is going to be coming into play. By the 5pm tomorrow, they should have landfall pegged within 20 miles... maybe.

BTfromAZ

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:07 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Jamiewx and all: Having lived in FL for many years and having the rest of my family living there now, I can tell you the comment that the threat of tornados is nil from Tampa Bay northward seems just ridiculous to me. First all, FL gets tornados from garden variety rainstorms--some associated with passing cold fronts as well as the typical summer convection. I experienced one in Winter Park on Christmas Eve associated ewith a frontal passage. But it is also true that hurricane-spawned tornados tend to be in the outer rain bands as I understand it and that is just what is likely to pass over north central FL. Granted, it may not be the worst area (the bands in the forward-right quadrant) but it will surely be capable of spawning tornados. And subsequent posts have confirmed that other bulletin and predictions include a serious threat of tornados.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:07 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Ya know...we are NOT trying to WILL it to Tampa! I am going to mention Charley 1 more time. Some models ARE trending to the North and that does mean something to us... as Charley WAS Tampa's storm, but cought Punta Gorda totally off guard... I will NEVER forget that as a person who had to pack up their entire life and returned home within 3 hours to see that Charley masd A HUGE HOOK TO THE RIGHT! You must understand the frustration of the people in our AREA AS WELL AS OTHERS! I think that people have a right to be concerned in Tampa..........

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:09 AM

Jabs

I hate to ask on the board. But please keep any personal remarks, or jousting, off of the forum.
If you feel the need to debate a post.
Please Use the PM feature.
There are, on average, 700 people on the site. they come here for information and learning. Not for the jousting you can find on the TV shows.

Probations

are Free to those who wish to continue.

(Weather Master)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:09 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Tornado Warning

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1004 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MIAMI HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL PALM BEACH COUNTY IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 1100 PM EDT

* AT 958 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 7 MILES WEST OF
CALOOSA...OR ABOUT 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF INDIANTOWN...MOVING EAST
AT 5 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
CALOOSA

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mfl&wwa=tornado%20warning

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:12 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Quote:

Tornado Warning

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?wa...Hurricane+Watch

corrected link

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=mlb&wwa=tornado%20warning

Tammster

(Registered User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:12 AM

Tornado warning

The emergency broadcasting system just broke into the baseball game to tell us in PB County that a tornado warning is in effect until 11pm in north central PBC. They said a tornado may be on the ground near Caloosa (off Beeline between Northlake & Jupiter).

Genesis

(Weather Guru)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:13 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Quote:

Genesis, it wasn't supposed to turn to the northeast till early tomorrow morning, so turning early now means it will go further sount

The front was supposed to extend into the gulf and be down around Tampa, depressing basically out from the Panhandle well southward into the gulf and extending over Tampa. With a ENE axis and the front over Tampa, it would basically insure that the storm would not come up that far north.

Instead it is lifting out and the TAIL of it is over Tampa. By tomorrow morning at this rate it will be nowhere near there.

The frontal boundary would have effectively protected anything near and to the north of it from a direct impact, although along and south of the boundary you'd get NASTY conditions from the interaction.

With the front gone - and I expect it will not be present over the peninsula by the morning - that protection is likewise gone.

The south end of Tampa's inlet appears to be the northern end of the Hurricane Watch area, and the cone extends north of Tampa to roughly New Port Richie.

www.weather.com if you scroll down the first box to select it; the former I get from the Unisys site that has all the fixed GOES image loops available.)

I understand that people don't WANT it to go that way (nobody wants it to come their way - and I have no particular bias as to where I'd "like" to see it go - other than out to sea and die somewhere....) but if you're in a watch or warning area it would be a good idea to be prepared!

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:14 AM

Re: Natural Disasters

Well -- everyone is worried as appropriate -- but we have time to prepare and it is unlikely that Wilma will restrenghten to a Cat 5 or anything close

So compared to those unfortunate folks living in the Yucatan we will be OK

At least we know it is coming -- those who face earthquakes/volcanos etc do not have time to prepare and get out of the way-- so let's focus on preparations and keep the posts civil

(Storm Chaser)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:15 AM

Re: Tornado warning

Tornados maybe the big story from this storm.Had one 4 miles from me at 2am this morning.And it will only get worse.

leetdan

(Weather Guru)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:17 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Holy crap, that cell is about 10 miles west of where I'm sitting right now. There's been some absolutely stunning lightning all evening, guess I shouldn't be surprised.

Good thing my house is already shuttered

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:17 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

With all the concentration on Florida, let me draw you toward something else the GFDL series of models has been consistently showing over the last several runs: a left hook into New England toward the middle of the week. Landfall for Wilma could be anywhere between Conneticut and Newfoundland, with the time-average of the models concentrating on Maine. Additionally, the attached GFDL intensity guidence indicates that hurricane force winds, possible as high as Category 2, may effect parts of New England.

Now you may continue with your obsessive-compulsive "where is it going to hit in Florida" discussion

My trigger finger is getting itchy. But since this is discussion related? I'll leave it~danielw

gailwarning

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:19 AM

Re: Tornado warning

My parents are in a small mobile home in Zephyrhills, Pasco County, northeast of Tampa. Should I be urging them to get out of there at this point? I'm in Melbourne Beach area on east coast, but in a solid house. It doesn't sound like it's going to be any picnic for us here, but should my folks be on their way here tomorrow?

I'm worried--not sure what to do at this point.

CaneTrackerInSoFl

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:20 AM

Re: Tornado warning

Might be a good idea to bring em over to Melbourne. Though, its now or never, and especially since they are in a mobile home, with the chance for hurricane force winds and tornadic activity in that area,

(Meteorologist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:22 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Wilma is still moving VERY slowly. Any movement that occurs in the next several hours is not going to tell us anything about where it is going to make landfall.

(Weather Master)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:22 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Not to get to far off, I guess I am, Snow Advisory in upstate NY till Sunday

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:23 AM

Re: Tornado warning

I'd tend to agree wtih CaneTracker on this one. Although it looks like this area (I'm in Tampa) won't suffer the worse effects of the storm, if I were in a mobile home I think I'd evacuate. I just don't trust them to stand up to the winds. My philosophy is it's always better to be safe than sorry.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:23 AM

Re: Tornado warning

Hard to say that storms over Fl this PM are directly influenced by Wilma -- Several severe storms noted on Melb radar are generating various tornado warnings-- including N of Palm Beach and several approaching Orlando -- But looking at motion all are moving almost directly away from Wilma to NE -- Not Wrapping around as far outer bands would

CaneTrackerInSoFl

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:23 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Latest satallite looks like Wilma is starting to develop some cold cloud tops again. The dry air that was so visible before is now almost completely covered by convection. Still, probably will take a little more time to work it out.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

(Storm Chaser)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:26 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Saw the same thing.Covection it starting to flare up to the north.Worse fear is this thing gets alot stronger.

(Meteorologist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:27 AM

Re: Tornado warning

The storms may be loosely related to Wilma. The outflow jet from Wilma is probably enhancing the shear a little bit for those storms.

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:27 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

The northern eye wall is really starting to fire up. Motion is real erratic at this point. It all depends how far the trough digs to the south. We will no by 5am ADV.

tashina

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:27 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Max on CNN says: eyewall large so changes will be slow.....no estimates of Cancun gusts yet...slow intensification possible over loop current back into major hurricane.....ERC could happen...he's amazed that the small eyewall is still intact.

harmlc.ath.cx

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:30 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Anyone know a good link for the current water temperatures in the GOM?

Edit - here is a kewl place to view some: http://comps.marine.usf.edu/

Hurricane Fredrick 1979

(Weather Guru)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:31 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Quote:

The northern eye wall is really starting to firer up. Motion is real erratic at this point. It all depends how far the trough digs to the south. We will no by 5am ADV.

I have a oddball question. What would happen IF the trough does not pick her up? I have seen where there has been at least one time so far that it didnt dip farther south to pick it up.

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:33 AM

Re: Tornado warning

gailwarning - always best to error on the side of caution. They are suggesting that Tampa will see 75 mph+ winds.

www.wfts.com/stories/2005/10/051022local.shtml

However, realize it may be more prudent for them to go to a local shelter than for you to run across the state on Sunday as the roads will become full with traffic - especially the I-4 corridor - and the rain is scheduled to start becoming harder and harder.

Of course, only you folks know what is best for your safety.

Take care!

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:33 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

The last advisory had the speed near 3 MPH; but if you look at the various loops and compare the time it takes for the eye width to travel over a fixed point it sure appears to me that she's moving faster than that now...

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:34 AM

I think we may have a problem

The Northern Semicircle has Really intensified.
A large area of High Cloud Tops. (the White area)
Click on wilma's center to zoom in.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:35 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

SSTs? Sure:

NHC: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb/atl_anal.gif
NRL (Navy) Main site: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/all_watl.html
NRL Today's 26C+ SSTs: http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/sst2.watl.20051022.gif
NRL Today's HHC (more useful than SST): http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/watl/hh3.watl.20051022.gif
Raw SST data: http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/?product=sst&region=gulfmexico&nothumbs=0

(Weather Master)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:38 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

This is updated 2x Day

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/NCODA/US058VMET-GIFwxg.NCODA.glbl_sstanomaly.gif

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:42 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Bay News 9 (Pinellas County) has just reported that all previous watches are now warnings.

Tropics Guy

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:42 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Hurricane warnings up for most of the watch area at 11:00 !!

TG

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:43 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Quote:

Hurricane warnings up for most of the watch area at 11:00 !!

TG

Ok north Tampa is now out of the cone the track is the same so peace for a few hours i hope

max winds same everything same but the watchs are now warnings which was expected.

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:43 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

5am tampa will be out of the cone... tampa is barely in the cone now.

(Weather Master)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:46 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Warning? interesting. guessing the time frame has shifted forward. Was not expecting the upgrades until Morning.

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:47 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Watches mean hurricane conditions are likely within 36 hours.
Warnings mean hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours.

Changing watches to warnings is part of the game and to be expected.

Updated the graphic but since the center was almost due-west from the hour before, we can chalk it up to lots of wobbling while reforming the center. Dropped the heading info accordingly though.

From the discussion:

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

abyrd

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:51 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

According to the lastest track, sustained winds in Orlando of 56 mph at 8 a.m. on Monday morning.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:52 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

OK, time for my question.

I'm in Central Palm Beach Co.
I'm going to get it, without question.

I measured on a computer map, and the shoreline due west is about 100mi

If the hurricane field is 100mi from center, and I am 100mi from the west coast, would that mean that if it lands with a CAT 2 ("landing" means eye coming ashore, right?), that would mean that I would have a CAT 2 here.

Correct?

Or is it reasonable to assume that some strength with be lost due to land friction?

Wow....Florida seems so small at the moment

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:52 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Not exactly all watches are warnings.. Please read..

Hurricane Warning is in effect for all of
the Florida Keys...including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay. A
Hurricane Warning is also now in effect along the Florida West
Coast from Longboat Key southward...and along the Florida East
Coast from Jupiter Inlet southward...including Lake Okeechobee.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect along the Florida East Coast
north of Jupiter Inlet to Titusville. Hurricane warnings will
likely be required for this area Sunday morning.

Tropical Storm Warning is in effect along the
Florida West Coast north of Longboat Key to Steinhatchee river.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the East Coast of
Florida from north of Titusville northward to Fernandina Beach.

abyrd

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:54 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

First, hurricane force winds are expected to be only 75 miles to the east.
Second, the outer edges will only be that and get stronger as they get closer, I believe.

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:54 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Quote:

OK, time for my question.

I'm in Central Palm Beach Co.
I'm going to get it, without question.

I measured on a computer map, and the shoreline due west is about 100mi

If the hurricane field is 100mi from center, and I am 100mi from the west coast, would that mean that if it lands with a CAT 2 ("landing" means eye coming ashore, right?), that would mean that I would have a CAT 2 here.

Correct?

Or is it reasonable to assume that some strength with be lost due to land friction?

Wow....Florida seems so small at the moment

They way I understand it is the highest winds are usually concentrated right around the eye wall. So if hurricane force winds extend out 100 miles from the center then a location 100 mi from the center would experiences winds of at least 74 MPH but not necessarily to Cat 2 strength. Make sense?

leetdan

(Weather Guru)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:54 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Quote:

OK, time for my question.

I think you're misunderstanding -- the maximum winds, be they category 2 or 3, will be relatively close to the center (on the order of 10 miles or so). When they say hurricane force winds extend X miles, they mean that's how far away from the center minimal category 1 winds could be felt.

Now, it's more than possible that Wilma maintains category 2/3 status long enough inland to effect you with those stronger winds - Orlando saw that with Charley last year (I think it made landfall as a 4, and was still a 3 over Orlando).

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:56 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Good point, lost my head for a moment

However, according to the local MET (Don Noe, Ch 10), the new forecast holds a 2 a lot longer and almost all the way across

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:56 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

It means that you will most likely have winds of at least 74 MPH. As of the newest advisory, hurricane force winds (74 MPH+) extend 70 miles from the center. Some expansion is expected, though.

Genesis

(Weather Guru)

Sun Oct 23 2005 02:57 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Quote:

With all the concentration on Florida, let me draw you toward something else the GFDL series of models has been consistently showing over the last several runs: a left hook into New England toward the middle of the week. Landfall for Wilma could be anywhere between Conneticut and Newfoundland, with the time-average of the models concentrating on Maine. Additionally, the attached GFDL intensity guidence indicates that hurricane force winds, possible as high as Category 2, may effect parts of New England.

Now you may continue with your obsessive-compulsive "where is it going to hit in Florida" discussion

I brought this up a few days ago, and I know the GFDL is still showing this.

The GFDL is also showing tropical-storm force winds or better over essentially the ENTIRE state of Florida - including the Panhandle - at one time or another associated with Wilma's passage, extending up the entire eastern seaboard as Wilma tracks NE. It also appears to show a clean miss on the surface front that is currently over Tampa extending up northward towards the NE US, with the storm instead riding up the trough behind it that is diving down from S. Dakoka (clearly visible on the WV.)

Its an interesting possibility. BTW, the GFDL looks to bring the storm itself in south of Naples with the Cat 1 windfield extending roughly to Sarasota on the north side. It also shows incredible baroclinic effects as Wilma accelerates off the east coast, including a small burst of Cat 4 winds when the storm is off Virginia. Fortunately, only fish (and any shipping interests unfortunate enough to be there at that time) would be affected by that.

A couple of days ago I was very concerned about this possibility and was posting that the "big story" on Wilma might not even BE in Florida, but rather further up the east coast. The first trough "miss" seemed to make this much less likely. But.... the GFDL continues to insist on it, and keeps finding an atmospheric structure that will cause it.

Looking at the Marine WX the hurricane watch officially extends to Longboat Key. This is north of Sarasota by about as far as it is south of the mouth of Tampa Bay. (I have a good friend who lives in Longboat Key - neither he or I want to see Wilma served upon him...... trust me on that.)

I remain concerned by the expected relatively rapid motion. Looking at the GFDL again it is prognosticating an impact in 30 hours from roughly now.... that's not much time if this storm takes "dead aim" on you, no matter where it goes......

Please stay alert folks.....

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:00 AM

Winds

Don't forget it's not just the Wind Speed.
It's how long the wind blows At That Speed.

A hurricane moving at 10 miles per hour will do much more damage than one moving at 20 miles per hour.

Here are two of the forecast wind fields. From Advisory # 31.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 24.0N 84.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 75SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 125SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 26.3N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...125NE 125SE 60SW 75NW.
34 KT...200NE 225SE 125SW 150NW.

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:02 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Sorry, but there is no front over Tampa. It is in North Florida and not coming south until Wilma passes.

LINK

The air outside is very humid and heavy.

Edit: Just checked observations in north FL. Perry has 66% humidity and N wind. Lake City has 94% humidity and calm wind. The front is between those locations.

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:09 AM

Tampa

The New graphic for the 3 Day Cone is up.
Unless they have moved Tampa, FL since 4PM.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT24/AL2405W.gif

Tampa is still in the Northern side of the CONE.
Just barely...but it's inside the cone.

The Watches and Warnings will give you some kind of idea what to expect.
Allthough, having been through Katrina. The Inland Hurricane Watch and Warning really didn't justify her damage here. The Tornado warning that was issued just prior to Katrina's Eyewall arriving, got more attention and was more relative to the damage.

nowhammies

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:14 AM

A silly question that I should aready know the answer to

I know I have seen this question answered somewhere. And I will bet that there is a hurricanes for Dummies area that I could find this, but I am too tired and brain fried to look.

How do you convert Nautical miles to miles and knots to MPH

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:15 AM

Re: Tampa

I'm very surprised they didn't extend the hurricane warnings all the way up the East coast in the cone. I'm not a met but that seems illogical considering they are going to experience hurricane force winds. ??

Major7

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:15 AM

Re: A silly question that I should aready know the answer to

knots times 1.15 equal miles per hour.

(Weather Master)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:15 AM

Re: A silly question that I should aready know the answer to

1 nautical miles = 1.15077945 miles

http://www.metric-conversions.org/length/nautical-miles-to-miles.htm

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:16 AM

Re: A silly question that I should aready know the answer to

Multiply by 1.15.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:16 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Quote:

The air outside is very humid and heavy.

you are tellin me! the most sticky day this year here in 34202. disgusting day to be outside

Just walked outside and it is still the same. no wind whatsoever. scary

abyrd

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:16 AM

Re: Tampa

According to that 3-day track, it almost seems like they are expecting it to turn NE now. In 24 hours, they are expecting 2.3 degrees east and 2.2 north, nearly due NE from where it is now. If it continues moving north for a while, that would move it north. I think the hour of decision is here!

Littlebit

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:18 AM

Re: Tampa

I have a quick question. We're in Plant City, just east of Tampa and debating whether or not to to board up. We've gotten all of our supplies, gassed up etc.. Just waiting to add the finishing touches should Wilma decide to pay a visit. Any advice? As always, thanks to everyone on this board for your insight and expertise. Stay safe everyone!

Donna

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:19 AM

Re: A silly question that I should aready know the answer to

For whoever wanted the knots to mph: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pub/metcon.php

Excellent points Genesis in regards to the GFDL. A lot of folks could be surprised (especially those who were north of Charley last year and got very little from him) to see Cat 1 winds from a storm so far south of them. Agree with you in regards to NE also. a cat 1/cat 2 system up there would be a huge story (especially this late in the season!), and cause some major damage (especially if it's moving at 20+ mph. Though many models have trended away from that New England hit, the angle of the trough will be a major deal not only in terms of where Wilma hits here, but if she hit there.

Multi-Decadal Signal

(Weather Guru)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:20 AM

Re: Tampa *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:21 AM

Re: Tampa

go outside and look/walk around your home. Do you see items of debris that could be picked up and chunked through a window? Trees that looked damaged?

if it is a decision whether to go buy plywood and put it up vs. getting the plywood out of the garage and installing it, I am a firm believer of erroring on the side of caution - you can't hurt yourself that way.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:22 AM

Re: Tampa

Quote:

According to that 3-day track, it almost seems like they are expecting it to turn NE now. In 24 hours, they are expecting 2.3 degrees east and 2.2 north, nearly due NE from where it is now. If it continues moving north for a while, that would move it north. I think the hour of decision is here!

This
trough should turn Wilma to the northeast during the next 12-24
hr...

they don't think it should be going NE just quite yet so the "HR" odf decision is not here yet but sometime in the next 12-24 hours.

(Weather Analyst)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:22 AM

Re: Tampa

I'm in mid-Pinellas and I'm going to make that decision tomorrow when the track is more definite.

Sarasota3G

(Registered User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:22 AM

Re: Tampa

I don’t know what it means as of yet, but here in Sarasota three miles from the gulf, the barometer is trying to rise. It dropped to 29.79 earlier, now it’s up to 29.83. Around here that is a significant change, normal is usually 30.10. I don’t know what’s going on any better than the next armature guy, but I like to see the barometer rise.

age234

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:22 AM

Re: A silly question that I should aready know the answer to

Or you can go to Google and type "5 knots in mph" or "5 nautical miles in miles" or whatever you want. Pretty cool.

(Weather Guru)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:24 AM

Re: Tampa *DELETED*

Post deleted by tpratch

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:26 AM

Rule Reminder

The site bandwidth could be severely tested today as the storm approaches the coast, but you can help by not posting the obvious and keeping your posts informative. We need to reduce the number of one-liners so that we can keep the site up and running during this serious event. Your help is appreciated. Some one-liners are ok if they are informative - just try to keep the number of them down.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:26 AM

Re: Tampa

i just noticed that as well here in 34202 (about 5 miles east of you)

Quote:

I don’t know what it means as of yet, but here in Sarasota three miles from the gulf, the barometer is trying to rise. It dropped to 29.79 earlier, now it’s up to 29.83. Around here that is a significant change, normal is usually 30.10. I don’t know what’s going on any better than the next armature guy, but I like to see the barometer rise.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:27 AM

Re: Tampa

The good news in all of this, if you can consider it good news is that the storm will appears to enter SW FL at 7 AM and be off the East Florida Cost at 11 AM. Talk about your quickie !!!

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:33 AM

Re: Tampa

Quote:

The good news in all of this, if you can consider it good news is that the storm will appears to enter SW FL at 7 AM and be off the East Florida Cost at 11 AM. Talk about your quickie !!!

yeah i think people are going to be quite surprised how fast this thing hits them. i think they will be shocked in the morning when they find out that some nasty squalls are passing overhead them already. don't know if i'm gonna get some sleep tonight, watching this NE turn happening. looks good so far! but that northern convection does NOT look good. lets hope for us up near Sarasota that the forward motion will dampen some of these winds!

edit: i am not liking the looks of how these waves of energy are coming off of wilma right now.

take a look: http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RSOgeir3.html

the eastern side of fla. is really flaring up off this stuff, but you can clearly discern a waves of energy aligned from 260 deg. to about 80 deg. currently from about ft. myers to port st. lucie, and slowing drifting north.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:38 AM

Re: Tampa

That is good news indeed Toho, no 60 inches of rain here.

My enthusiasm is tempered, however, by the fact that Wilma's winds will be augmented by her forward speed. So if theoretically she came in at a moderate intensity, say 100mph, but had a forward motion of 20 mph, folks could see winds in the range of a major hurricane. Also, a wider area of people would see these intense winds, and Wilma's forward speed would mean that it would spend less time over land, thus the east coast would see winds higher than they would have if Wilma was a slow mover.

It is nice though that she'll get in, out, and we can get out with the cleanup. Frances was excruciating last year because it kept people bottled up inside f o r e v e r.

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:42 AM

Re: A silly question that I should aready know the answer to

WTVT met said he was confident of the ft.myers/naples track basically assuring all of tampa that they would have no hurricane winds.

Sneakbridge

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:43 AM

Highlands Co

We are expected to get Hurricane force winds here in Highlands county. (A little NW of the big lake!) I put up shutters today. When you have them made already, you might as well go through the drill of putting them up when a storm apporaches! I did not see a lot of others preparing in our area. I helped a couple of my new teachers get plywood for their houses. Home depot was busy, but I wouldn't say packed and there was plenty of material in stock. I think most people's attitude is that if it is coming, get here and get it over with. THey'd prefer it not to come, but the wait is sometimes bad too. That being said, I can't imagine what they went through down in Cancun.

As it was just stated, it isn't just how strong the winds are, but how long the winds are there. So 10 hours of 75mph winds might cause more damage than 1hr of 100 mph winds... Is there any study or formula along these lines to help predict the damage an area will see?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:44 AM

Re: A silly question that I should aready know the answer to

Quote:

WTVT met said he was confident of the ft.myers/naples track basically assuring all of tampa that they would have no hurricane winds.

i think that is quite silly at this moment, since it is only just come off the yucatan and is moving very slowly. but everyone gets to call it right?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:44 AM

00Z GFS is in

Still at Port Charlotte. OOZ NOGAPS has moved south to Everglades/Keys. Still quite a divergence. Anyone have 00Z GFDL?

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:45 AM

Request

Please allow PMs in your personal settings.
If you offend, and we can't PM you about it.
We have no choice but to place you on Probation.
Sorry, I can't change your settings or send you mail.

One other request. We are getting too many Mod Alerts about one-liners. If you have a question about someone's post. PM THEM.

The MOD ALERT feature is a great tool. But we can't post info here for having to answer MOD ALERTS.

If you constantly disagree with a person's post. Chose the "IGNORE " feature.
However, should this person post a Tornado Warning for your area...You Won't see it.

To quote an old TV ad. "Thank You for Your Support".

MikeC

(Admin)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:47 AM

Re: A silly question that I should aready know the answer to

Quote:

i think that is quite silly at this moment, since it is only just come off the yucatan and is moving very slowly. but everyone gets to call it right?

Actually, it's pretty solid. And the main reason why is the watches and warnings set like they are. The Hurricane warnings are done pretty well, and officially that means the more than the cone. Tampa most likely won't get hurricane Force winds. They may get tropical storm force winds. It would have been if they said that and the warnings were up for that area. But as it is, that is a solid and reasonable statement.

Apologies also for all the removed posts and drama on this site lately. Talking about the storm and tts affects is the purpose, not other posters. Some posts that have broken rules have gotten through, mainly because not everyone can be here 24/7, especially myself. But myself, Ed, John, Christine, Danny, Reddington, TPratch, and Hank as well as Clark (whos unfortunately not here this week) are watching when we can.

Sneakbridge

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:47 AM

Re: Tampa

Quote:

That is good news indeed Toho, no 60 inches of rain here.

My enthusiasm is tempered, however, by the fact that Wilma's winds will be augmented by her forward speed. So if theoretically she came in at a moderate intensity, say 100mph, but had a forward motion of 20 mph, folks could see winds in the range of a major hurricane. Also, a wider area of people would see these intense winds, and Wilma's forward speed would mean that it would spend less time over land, thus the east coast would see winds higher than they would have if Wilma was a slow mover.

It is nice though that she'll get in, out, and we can get out with the cleanup. Frances was excruciating last year because it kept people bottled up inside f o r e v e r.

If the hurricane is moving fwd at 20mph, for those to the north of the eye actually see less wind then they would have? In Wilma's senerio, those to the north of the eye will get winds out of the west, and if that is going into a 20mph forward (NE) motion, I'd guess it will make it weaker...

TampaDon

(Registered User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:48 AM

Re: A silly question that I should aready know the answer to

Seems pretty premature to me as well. Has anyone noticed that the barometer is falling in Tampa while some are saying it is rising South of here?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:54 AM

Re: A silly question that I should aready know the answer to

I live in Manatee County and just got back from Tampa about a half hour ago and it was 83 degrees in Tampa and very muggy. got home and its 78 and not as muggy.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 03:59 AM

Re: A silly question that I should aready know the answer to

Quote:

Seems pretty premature to me as well. Has anyone noticed that the barometer is falling in Tampa while some are saying it is rising South of here?

well tampadon, i think that means we have a battle ensuing right now between these two areas! sounds like the trough is trying to dig into northern tampa, which would explain the flareups over near the cape. so far so good, i think we might miss this one!

(Meteorologist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:01 AM

Re: Tampa

Quote:

I'm very surprised they didn't extend the hurricane warnings all the way up the East coast in the cone. I'm not a met but that seems illogical considering they are going to experience hurricane force winds. ??

Hurricane Warnings are for hurricane conditions within 36 hours. Since landfall is expected to occur in around 36 hours, the east coast would not be experiencing hurricane force winds at that time, just the west coast. Also, while the hurricane-force winds over water may extend a long ways from the center, they will not extend as far away from the center over land, so the center will need to be close to the east coast before hurricane-force winds would be expected there. That is not expected to happen until after 36 hours.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:03 AM

Re: A silly question that I should aready know the answer to

Quote:

I live in Manatee County and just got back from Tampa about a half hour ago and it was 83 degrees in Tampa and very muggy. got home and its 78 and not as muggy.

i just checked the barometer again and it is currently 1008 and falling. we have picked up a breeze, which is probably why you felt the main difference. i can feel it already now, humidity is down to 87% already....

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:07 AM

Re: Tampa

Actually...

"A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS."

(Meteorologist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:07 AM

Re: Tampa

00Z GFS still suggests landfall near Ft. Myers around 12Z on Monday. The GFS has been further north of most of the other models in the last couple of runs, so keep that in mind:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_036l.gif

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:08 AM

Re: Tampa

Forecast looks on track on how the trough is developing and digging down....I feel the models are on track in general on a FtMyers area landfall.....Ill stay with Sarasota or Charlotte county landfall...wouldnt be surprised if it was a tad south or north of there..... Anyways that is my landfall prediction and reasons why are obviously been told by many before including the NHC, the strongest winds will be near and just right of the center but TS winds will be as far N as Tampa-Orlando and south into the keys. Heavy rains will be widespread up to the I4 cooridor from Tampa-Daytona with lighter amounts further N. Tornados will be wide spread especially in bands and near or se of the center.

Scottsvb

(Meteorologist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:08 AM

Re: Tampa

Quote:

Actually...

"A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS."

Oops... you are correct. That is an even better explanation for why there are currently no warnings on the FL east coast.

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:10 AM

Re: Tampa

"AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE."

DeLandT

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:11 AM

Re: A silly question that I should aready know the answer to

I am in northeast Sarasota County and the current conditions here are 77 degrees, 93% humidity and barometric pressure of 29.71 (1006) The pressure has been steady for the past hour or two but has been all over the place today.

Tracey

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:12 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Michael, Very interesting link. I agree about the front. If the cold front is not schedueld to be here (Daytona area) until Tuesday, how is this storm going to keep it south of us on Monday. Also a little confused about the axis of this front. Will it not ride up the front?????

(Meteorologist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:14 AM

Re: Tampa

Quote:

"AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF
THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY. A
HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM LONGBOAT KEY SOUTHWARD...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE."

Aargh... I should have checked the warnings before answering the question... I thought all of the east coast was still under a watch. I should probably give up now. I would be very surprised, though, if there are any hurricane-force winds anywhere on the south or east coast within 24 hours.

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:15 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Tracey,

Its a mix between the jet stream and the front. The jet stream will most likely steer it in the beginning, followed by extra acceleration due to the cold front.

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:17 AM

Re: Tampa

Well, usually the hurricane center puts up warnings ahead of time so that people get their _ in gear with their preparation. It's a mental thing, where "OMG a hurricane warning? I better get things done!" Also, hurricane-force gusts can be felt in some of the squalls that will be coming through the east coast area Sunday evening.

strike two!

maddie

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:18 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

I have been away from the board for a while today getting my In-Laws ready for the storm....am trying to catch up with all of the info...In your opinions how strong do you think Wilma will be when she makes landfall?

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:20 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

maddie,

Of course, No one wants to uproot the NHC's position on the landfall. Right now they think it will be a Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with winds of up to 114 MPH.

Also, in the latest discussion:

"WILMA SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL IN FLORIDA AS A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME CHANCE IT COULD HIT AS A
CATEGORY THREE."

Preparation for a 2-3 would be wise, depending on where you live. Always heed the advice of local officials, and keep it locked on your local radio/news program for more information on your area's effects from Wilma

saluki

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:21 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Longtime lurker, first-time poster with what might be a dumb question: Which model runs go into which NHC advisories? Is the 0000Z GFS, for example, out in time to be factored into the 11 p.m. advisory?

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:21 AM

Movement

Movement is still eratic as her innermost eyewall tries to decide on staying or going.

Slightly north but mostly west of the last point, Wilma does not appear to want to do anything in a straight line.

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:23 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:25 AM

Re: Tampa

Quote:

00Z GFS still suggests landfall near Ft. Myers around 12Z on Monday. The GFS has been further north of most of the other models in the last couple of runs, so keep that in mind:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_036l.gif

Actually no, the GFS shows a Sarasota County landfall.

That's fairly far north of the consensus (but in line with my thinking).

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:27 AM

Re: Movement

Quote:

Movement is still eratic as her innermost eyewall tries to decide on staying or going.

Slightly north but mostly west of the last point, Wilma does not appear to want to do anything in a straight line.

Of course TP... after all that time in Cancun and Cozumel, who could walk in a straight line?

Jamaica... Cancun... Cozumel... S. FL (maybe)... looks like Wilma went on her Spring Break about 6 months too early.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:27 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Actually I hate to correct you, but I am not sure you are accurate in stating the 00Z is accounted for in the 11 PM forecast. I think its accounted for in the 5AM. 00Z does not usually finish compiling until after 11 PM

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:30 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

The early-cycle 00Z models (NOGAPS, GFDL, LBAR, BAMM, BAMD, etc.) are all accounted in the 11PM advisories. Late-cycle models are included in the 5AM advisory.

I don't believe this to be accurate. I am trying to validate this information~danielw

maddie

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:31 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Joshua- thank you , I have been tuned into all the local channels today , but of course you get different opinions on all of the channels as to where and how strong they anticipate the storm may be. Being the novice that I am , I get more informned information here on the board with all of you.......I think I speak for many of the "lurkers" here on the board , you guys just seem to make all of this easier to understand.....

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:31 AM

Re: Movement

Although she is meandering a bit -- it looks like some of the dry air N and W in the GOM is starting to mix in some -- will be interesting to see if any strengthening of signifacance can occur with the dry air and the oncoming shear

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:34 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

maddie,

I understand completely. I try to stay away from the news channels around here except for the press conferences directly from the NHC, because they like to hype it up way more/less than it actually is at times. Sometimes, they don't even know what they are talking about, or they are just blatantly mistaken.

Prepare for the worst, and hope for the best is what I always say. Your neighbors may laugh at you for putting up storm shutters, but hey, its better to be safe than sorry, correct?

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:34 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

I did not think GFDL or GFS or NOGAPS were early cycle. However, with said I am always learning something new. Thanks for the input.

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:35 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

Quote:

I did not think GFDL or GFS or NOGAPS were early cycle. However, with said I am always learning something new. Thanks for the input.

I am not positive if the GFS is early cycle, but I am positive that GFDL and NOGAPS are.

Brian S

(Registered User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:39 AM

Re: Movement

This is a link that was posted here yesterday and it has some updated pics from the damage in what I believe is Cozumel. I wish everyone there the best and hope everyone in florida is prepared and stays safe.

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/2005/mexico.shtml

pincty

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:39 AM

Re: Front

2 local mets in Tampa Bay stated on the late news that the front will be in place and have full confidence that it won't track into the Tampa area. D. Philips stated that he felt that the Ft. Myers track would be accurate to within 50 miles north or south of Ft. Myers. The Hurricane Update on the Weather Channel also showed the front pushing down. I believe we will be safe here in Pinellas County.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:45 AM

Re: Tampa

Quote:

Quote:

00Z GFS still suggests landfall near Ft. Myers around 12Z on Monday. The GFS has been further north of most of the other models in the last couple of runs, so keep that in mind:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/00/images/gfs_ten_036l.gif

Actually no, the GFS shows a Sarasota County landfall.

That's fairly far north of the consensus (but in line with my thinking).

Do you need a quote from the NHC or Tampa on the GFS? its NOT Sarasota its at the border of Charoltte county need it posted? here is from the NHC The 18z GFS is well to the
left...calling for a landfall near Charlotte Harbor...BTW 0z is exact same to the .01

Also Tws also has the GFS at there also at 0z so please don't want to argue but Sarasota is wrong. thanks.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:46 AM

00Z GFDL

Has moved south to around Marco Island. Other than GFS, just about everything else is Marco-Keys. The way this thing is meandering and being encroached by the dry air from the west-northwest she might have trouble going north.

maddie

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:48 AM

Re: Front

I'll tell you what frightens me so much ...last year we anticipated Charlie being a direct hit near us ....had all of the windows boarded , generator, supplies ...at the last moment I decided to move my kids to thier grandparents in Polk County , thinking they would be safer., not knowing that at the last minute it would shift and have a direct hit on the area we were staying in....a huge tree fell on the house trapping my kids in the room in the house they were in, for hours.....I do not think I will ever be confident of landfall until it actually happens ......

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:49 AM

Re: Front

As we all continue to speculate on tracks I have to note that the NHC has been very consistent on the track crossing Florida from the Naples area across Lake Okachobee and exiting in the Fort Pierce/ Hutchinson Island area (Home of both Frances and Jeanne in 2004)

Here is link to Skeetobites spaghetti animation -- compare the NHC track from 10/19 to Now -- pretty similar huh

http://flhurricane.com/sbanimator.php?24

Yabba Dabba Doo

(Meteorologist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:50 AM

Re: Tampa

Quote:

Quote:

00Z GFS still suggests landfall near Ft. Myers around 12Z on Monday. The GFS has been further north of most of the other models in the last couple of runs, so keep that in mind:

Actually no, the GFS shows a Sarasota County landfall.

That's fairly far north of the consensus (but in line with my thinking).

The map I am looking at suggests landfall further south, actually probably between Ft. Myers and Charlotte Harbor.

Regarding the models that go into the forecast, none of the 00Z models go into the 11pm advisory. Usually, no GFS output from 00Z is available until 0330Z (11:30 PM EDT). The GFDL runs off of the GFS and is available even later. Even if it was available sooner, the NHC would use the 18Z runs for the 11pm advisory because they have to prepare a whole suite of products and they would not have time to make last minute changes based on newer but incomplete model runs.

Regional models like the NAM are available sooner, but NHC does not use those, or at least they never cite them in their discussions.

ddawes27

(Registered User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:54 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

I too am perplexed at where miss wilma will hit............but I am prepared for staying..........or evacuating North from here( Punta Gorda) My only confidence is that. I have a bad feeling about the Peace River! Good Luck!

FreakedInFlorida

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:55 AM

Re: Front

Last year, we went to a shelter for Frances and Jeanne and both times the house had no structural damage from the storms, so we are considering staying home this time as my father has a bad cold and just got out of the hospital and being in a shelter would be a pretty taxing process. We are in Fort Pierce, FL, which seems to be the current end game for the East Coast ocean fall (is that a word?). How bad is this going to be for this area? If it comes across at 20 MPH, would it be worse than Jeanne or Frances or would the speed limit the possible damage. We do not live in a flood zone and the area is fairly densely populated with houses, brick school, etc...

Any advice would be greatly appreciated...

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:55 AM

Re: Tampa

Are these consistant?web page

Colleen A.

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:55 AM

Re: Movement

All the mets here in Tampa are stating that they believe that the point of landrfall will more likely to be further north (in Ft. Myers) than what the current forecast is showing. They are basing this opinion on the last 24 hours of modell runs from the GFS and the GFDL. I believe that I read earlier on that the 11pm forecast track was shifted a tad north.
In Polk County, we are now under a TS Wind Warning. I think this is because the cold front and Hurricane Wilma will be clashing with eatch other. Of course, it will be much worse on the beaches....I sincerely hope that those in the direct path of this storm will not see devastating effects.
Colleen

(Moderator)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:56 AM

Re: Tampa

SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
0250 UTC SUN OCT 23 2005

230250..THE 00Z GFS STARTED ON TIME..NGM DONE. NAM WAS OUT
TO T+72HRS. THERE WERE 20 NOAA G-IV DROPSONDES IN
FOR THE GFS DUMP.

http://www-its.fsl.noaa.gov/ssg/status/ncep-status.html

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:58 AM

Re: Tampa

If you look at the last few satellite loops. It looks like its trying to reform a eye around that convection to the north. I believe there are concentric eye walls forming.

pincty

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Oct 23 2005 04:59 AM

Re: Front

I think we'll be OK Maddie. At least I hope so. Last year I vowed that after putting some savings away every two weeks that I should start buying .050 custom cut aluminum panels for my windows. They can withstand 150 mph winds. Well, I have 18 windows on my house and so far I have panels for six windows. In a year, I'll have them all completed. But right now I am 33 percent prepared.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 05:03 AM

Re: Tropical Storm Alpha Forms in the Eastern Caribbean. Hurricane Watches Up For Florida

It is a very safe bet to say that the weather will be better further N

No matter what the specific landfall from Sarasota south to the Keys, the worst winds surge and rain will be on the S side of the circulation (and landfalling eye) And the faster the storm is moving the more the difference between the N and S side of the storm -- so for Wilma it will be good to try and let the eye pass to your S

So best moves are inland and N on the Fl peninsula

As an aside -- lookinf at GFDL with the accelerating storm through the weatern atlantic along the Gulf Stream category 2 winds are carried all the way to a Canadian maritime province landfall

Yabba Dabba Doo

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Oct 23 2005 05:04 AM

Re: Movement

Quote:

All the mets here in Tampa are stating that they believe that the point of landrfall will more likely to be further north (in Ft. Myers) than what the current forecast is showing. They are basing this opinion on the last 24 hours of modell runs from the GFS and the GFDL. I believe that I read earlier on that the 11pm forecast track was shifted a tad north.
In Polk County, we are now under a TS Wind Warning. I think this is because the cold front and Hurricane Wilma will be clashing with eatch other. Of course, it will be much worse on the beaches....I sincerely hope that those in the direct path of this storm will not see devastating effects.
Colleen

Sorry to tell you but i watched channel 13 and channel 8 and BOTH said and i quote delgatto on ch 13 i feel very good and confident about a naples landfall and channel 8 said Ft myers to Naples and your guy on 11 was ft myers so sorry to correct you but that was a wrong statement.

gavsie

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Oct 23 2005 05:09 AM

Re: Movement

Quote:

Quote:

All the mets here in Tampa are stating that they believe that the point of landrfall will more likely to be further north (in Ft. Myers) than what the current forecast is showing. They are basing this opinion on the last 24 hours of modell runs from the GFS and the GFDL. I believe that I read earlier on that the 11pm forecast track was shifted a tad north.
In Polk County, we are now under a TS Wind Warning. I think this is because the cold front and Hurricane Wilma will be clashing with eatch other. Of course, it will be much worse on the beaches....I sincerely hope that those in the direct path of this storm will not see devastating effects.
Colleen

Sorry to tell you but i watched channel 13 and channel 8 and BOTH said and i quote delgatto on ch 13 i feel very good and confident about a naples landfall and channel 8 said Ft myers to Naples and your guy on 11 was ft myers so sorry to correct you but that was a wrong statement.

While I was not watching channel 13 I was watching channel 10 and 28 and both said it may take a more northerly track if the current direction continues. No one said we would be in for hurricane force winds but just a dicey couple days. Did it occur to you that they may be saying different things on different stations?