MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:16 AM
Wilma Racing Northeast as a Strong Category Three

10 PM EDT Update
Wilma is located 320 miles south of Cape Hatteras,NC; and is racing NE at 38 MPH.
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 MPH, a Strong Category 3.

2:30PM Update
Wilma is moving away from Florida, and has torn through the southern half of the state, many in south Florida are without power. Damage reports are mixed right now, and I haven't heard much news from the Keys.

Wilma is restrengthening once again over water, but is finally out to sea.

It has turned chilly here in the wake of Wilma, a very odd thing for a hurricane.

Updates will continue to be sporadic today.

Original Update
Wilma is nearling landfall. With 125MPH it's solidly a Category 3 storm, approaching Marco Island in Southwest Florida. Moving very rapidly at 20MPH.

Updates may be sporadic today.


Image courtesy of SkeetobiteWeather.com


Report Conditions from Wilma in your area here
Make your landfall prediction or forecast in this topic.

Tropical Storm Alpha Discussion

Event Related Links

Long Run Animated Radar recording of Wilma's Florida Approach (Flhurricane mirror of NWS radars)
Level 3 Radar Recording of Wilma


Stormcarib reports from Cozumel/Cancun (Includes Photos)
Stormcarib reports from the islands
Cancun Radar Animation (Flhurricane mirror) (Note: We have stopped recording this radar, but you still may view wilma's approach and departure of the Yucatan here)
West cuban Radar

Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL
Lee County, FL
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL

Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne

"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh

Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)

Web based Video and Audio
Many websites require realplayer for video and audio, you can get real player here or an alternative real media player here (Ie WinXp64)

Jim Williams, from Hurricane City and West Palm Beach, will likely be doing his live audio show as Wilma approaches on hurricanecity. Listen here He usually starts at 8PM eastern and runs until the 11PM advisory comes out.

Marc Sudduth over at hurricanetrack.com is in Naples, and has set up equpiment to record the storm in Marco island and in Everglades City see some of his live streaming video and audio here

Hurricanenow - Former CNN hurricane Reporter Jeff Flock reports from the storm with video updates and live streaming
Weathervine.com storm chasers/video/audio
radioNHCWX (not affiliated with the real NHC)
Barometer Bob

WebCams
Royal Resorts Webcams in Cancun
The Royal Sands Animated WebCam (Flhurricane Mirrored)

Reply and let us know of other links.

Wilma

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of Wilma - Static Image
Wilma Microwave Imagery Animation
Various Wilma Satellite Imagery
Floater Satellite with storm track overlays
Floater IR Satellite with storm track/front overlays
Weather Underground Model Plots
cimss page

Tropical Storm Alpha

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic of TD#25
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of Alpha
Various Alpha Satellite Imagery
TD#25[/url] - Static Image
cmss page


Sheeper
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:26 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

0530 on the treasure coast. off and on drizzle, wind still 20-25MPH but picking up. Not much here yet but wilma is about 50 miles out so we're expecting more activity any minute.

I'll keep updating from the Red Cross EOC in Vero Beach as much as I can.


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:34 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

talk about a cold front headed that way:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KPFN.html

Panama City-Bay County Intl Airport
Last Update on Oct 24, 3:53 am CDT

Fair

56°F
(13°C) Humidity: 75 %
Wind Speed: N 18 G 28 MPH
Barometer: 29.81" (1009.6 mb)
Dewpoint: 48°F (9°C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 2 Day History

stepped outside a few mins ago... burr!!!!


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:39 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

The appearance of the eye on radar has improved drastically in the last hour, as it appears to have become more circular and contracted in size somewhat. It's a good thing Wilma does not have much more time left to strengthen.

native
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:41 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Did I read that correctly? 56F! They're saying here (SE FL) tonight 57! Well, I guess if you're gonna be without power..that's definitely more preferrable than our usual 80 and super muggy!

Ed's on local channel 4 in Broward Co. now.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:42 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

I hope that she doesn't do the Katrina trick.

Flat marshlands don't slow a Cat 3 or 4 down very much.

NHC better break out the generators. This is going to get nasty real quick. Hang in there Jamie and Bob.

Present temp here is 47F.


laureg
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:42 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Cat 4....just great

Winds picked up here dramatically and instantly. Getting pelted with a rainband.

Guess I won't be going to the mall after all...


Major7
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:44 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Windchill on the heels of Wilma. What's next? A white Christmas for S. Florida?

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:45 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Quote:

Cat 4....just great

Winds picked up here dramatically and instantly. Getting pelted with a rainband.

Guess I won't be going to the mall after all...




Wilma is still a cat 3 hurricane. The initial message on this thread is incorrect in describing it as a 4. Winds are currently 125mph.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:46 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Our local cable station is still reporting the storm to be a CAT 3/ Are they ahead or behind this board? We have been having strong squall lines coming through since it woke me up at 4:00am

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:46 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

0525 AM HURRICANE ISLAMORADA 24.92N 80.64W
10/24/2005 UPPER KEYS IN MONR FL FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

AT 525 AM EDT...A WIND GUST OF 108 MPH WAS RECORDED AT
THE ISLAMORADA FIRE AND RESCUE STATION. ALSO...SEA OATS
BEACH AT MILE MARKER 74 WAS REPORTED INUNDATED BY STORM
SURGE.


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:47 AM
Local Viper

Local Viper is showing a more easterly track currently. They also showed the front pushing down through Orlando and the Cape currently with Northerly winds. Local Mets. think this may be the cause of the more easterly track. I also still see the lowest pressure towards West Kendall area. It is much lower than all the other Miami area stations. I think the storm wants to head towards that.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:47 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

don't see anything to show a cat 4.... high end cat 3 last i checked....

some phone company need to find out how CNN did a phoner with the mayor of everglades city just a few mins ago and it worked fined.... yet water floodes NO telephones hubs and the Gulf coast phone system.... including mine (verizon wireless) could not get to work for 2-4 days.... except at midnight....

John King on CNN... in worse part.. sat wont work


MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:48 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Quote:

Quote:

Cat 4....just great

Winds picked up here dramatically and instantly. Getting pelted with a rainband.

Guess I won't be going to the mall after all...




Wilma is still a cat 3 hurricane. The initial message on this thread is incorrect in describing it as a 4. Winds are currently 125mph.




Yes it was a typo. It's what I get for rushing when I wake up now corrected and placed in the title as well. It's very likely I won't be able to update much today.


laureg
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:50 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Thanks for the clarification. My newbie-ness is showing...

native
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:52 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

That's not good...Brian Norcross here was saying that while the storm has arrived for the keys...the "real" storm surge hasn't occured yet...what they've got now is from the south..once the storm gets a little further inland and the winds are coming at them from the north they were expecting surge in the neighborhood of 5-8 ft. I only hope that anyone that decided to stay understands what a foolish thing that was to do with no emergency help available or hospitals open and learns a lesson. (saying prayers that it's not the hard way)

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:55 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Tornado Warning
FLC055-241015-
/O.NEW.KTBW.TO.W.0029.051024T0949Z-051024T1015Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
549 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RUSKIN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN HIGHLANDS COUNTY IN FLORIDA.

* UNTIL 615 AM EDT

* AT 549 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
TORNADO NEAR LAKE PLACID...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 30 MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT...
LAKE JOSEPHINE BY 605 AM EDT.
SEBRING BY 610 AM EDT.


native
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:56 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

UH OH....power just flickered...never a good thing. I'll stay on a long as I can.

tikibar
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:57 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Quote:



NHC better break out the generators. This is going to get nasty real quick. Hang in there Jamie and Bob.







NHC has three 350kva gens in parallel. I know. I put them in when we built the place.
Even the Coke machine is on backup power!

Had some pretty good downpours here so far but only a few gusts of maybe 20-25.
71F


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:00 AM
NHC Webcam

It's starting to shake a bit. Lightning frequently too!

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/mfl/newpage/webcam/


twizted sizter
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:00 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Thanks for the warnings you've been posting all night....guess it's my turn now...getting hammered in Highlands...looks like that cell is almost here.

Multi-Decadal Signal
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:03 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

The damned tree is leaning over and sneaking up on me like the topiary monsters in Stephen King's The Shining movie.

Just had first 2 second power outage. When the real thing comes, I hope it takes FPL less than a week to restore.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:03 AM
Re: NHC Webcam

Just heard an explosion.Winds still picking up.Wind gust to 60mph.Power barely hanging on.

native
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:04 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Wow...crawler on bottom of Channel 7 says officials in the keys estimate that 90% of the residents STAYED! Crazy folks....and that only an estimated 3000 people in the lower keys have power.

kenwoodssaman
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:05 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

First post for me ...Looks like landfall is imminent. I'm in Coral Gables at the U, and the gusts are becoming stronger and lasting longer. Resigned to getting a whipping from Wilma.

jlauderdal
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:07 AM
Re: NHC Webcam

Quote:

Just heard an explosion.Winds still picking up.Wind gust to 60mph.Power barely hanging on.




the transformers are blowing in fort lauderdale and we arent even the big stuff yet.


cjgsav
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:10 AM
Re: NHC Webcam

Getting pounded here in Naples. Looks like we are not going to get the relief of the eye. North eyewall hitting us hard.

I am so out of Florida after this one...


tikibar
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:15 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

The NWS in melbourne has issued a


tornado warning for: south central orange county in Florida north central osceola county in Florida
Until 645 am edt
At 601 am edt, national weather service doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm with significant rotation 11 miles southeast of lake mary jane, or about 8 miles north of holopaw, moving northwest at 20 mph.
The tornado is expected to be near, narcoossee by 610 am edt lake mary jane by 630 am edt

I just hate those "significant rotation" things!


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:24 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

For future reference. Tell the Power Companies to shut off the grid at landfall...it saves a lot of transformers, and other things too!

I gets kind of Hot indoors after they shut it off...but it's much faster being restored.

And easier on the nerves...No Explosions


Sheeper
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:25 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

0630 on the treasure coast. heavy rain bands now starting but coming from the east. winds picking up nicely over 30MPH. we're in for a ride from here on.

Local Vero Beach (Indian River) EOC expects all impacts over by 1500 and 75MPH winds.....


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:30 AM
Getting more intense

Pressure dropping very fast, 29.15", a drop of .13" in the past hour. Winds now peaking constantly 40-45 m.p.h. gusts. Power beginning to flicker too.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:31 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Quick check of the "who's online"
580++ online

Looks like most of the South Florida members are still with us!

BTW...was that a NE jog I saw on TWC with Steve Lyons? Looked real strange.


JMII
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:33 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Oh boy this is going to be BAD for the Keys, Miami-Dade and Broward Counties. Why would anyone in thier right mind stay in the Keys?

My report from NW Broward is here: http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat....SSID=#Post62834

Like everyone else I'll update as long as the power holds up. I'm 2 blocks from an FPL substation with underground utilities so I'm praying that means my power will stay on longer and get back up sooner. Super job with all the info from this site - kudos to the NHC and the mets around here, other then a slightly south landfall and freak ablity to keep her Cat 3 Wilma has done what everyone said she would. Now to watch the mess play out in my own backyard thankfully given her speed this should be over by late afternoon and the nice cool break is coming.


LadyStorm
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:36 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

I am near the northern end of this mess. Here in Ormond Beach we currently are having 24 sustained with gusts of 36, extremely heavy rain. It will get worse before it gets better. To our southly neighbors, hang in there and stay safe.

MaryAnn


John Mellonhead
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:37 AM
Re: NHC Webcam

Quote:

Just heard an explosion.Winds still picking up.Wind gust to 60mph.Power barely hanging on.




Great site and info, guys.

Just SW of Lauderdale and it is getting nasty. Transformers were popping at about 5 in 15 sec as I went out to secure my dish. We had 1/3 of our trees down with Katrina but the dish held strong. It was already down at 6am with Wilma.

I am afraid much of SE Florida hasn't taken this seriously and will have a rude awakening, figurative and literal. About 50% of businesses had shutters up, but only 15-20% of homes from what I can tell. Everyones' excuse was "It's coming from the west, it's going north, cat.1, etc."

My boss even said "maybe I'll see you tomorrow."

Hope everyone else is safe. Thanks again for such an informative discussion.


twizted sizter
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:40 AM
Re: NHC Webcam

Various media outlets saying landfall has occured on Cape Romaneo (sp)...good track by NHC...don't see how or why anyone could fault it...nasty, nasty weather here...gonna be a long day.

Sneakbridge
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:41 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Quote:

Thanks for the warnings you've been posting all night....guess it's my turn now...getting hammered in Highlands...looks like that cell is almost here.




In Highlands as well. One of my concerns now is we've had so much rain all night that more trees will go over once the heavier winds arrive because everything is so saturated. It is starting to deteriorate here. On radar, Some of those clouds to the north of the eye look really nasty now.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:43 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

MaryAnn, and others North of Wilma.

I hoe that you have seen the worst of her. However...if she makes an early turn she could run just off of the East Florida Coast...Just a heads up.

Where is Fred and BamBam when you need them?


Jonathan Franklin
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:43 AM
Pummeling in Palmetto Bay, FL

The wind train is nearing. We're getting a good pummeling this morning. So far, no substantive damage, and we have power. Praise God!

Jonathan

Palmetto Bay (Miami) Florida


Sneakbridge
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:45 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

We've lost cable here, but still have power, phone, and DSL! This site is wonderful. Much nicer than the weather radio I'll have as my only source once the power goes out...

StPeteBill
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:46 AM
Re: Pummeling in Palmetto Bay, FL

Good morning all, is what we are experiencing here in the St Pete/Tampa the extent of what we will receive?

Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:47 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Radar links (some posted last night here):

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLocal...mp;prodnav=none
http://hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php?t=4173 (thanks to HCW for the link last night)
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.kbyx.shtml


Also, the Boat US graphic:
http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_field.asp


laureg
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:49 AM
Re: NHC Webcam

I'm cracking up at the John Mellonhead. I think someone is looking for you...

People are gonna have to learn to prepare for the next Category higher than forecasted. We know so much about these things, but still not enough...nothing new to report here but things are picking up in Pahokee on the lake, so won't be long now...

Keep telling myself this will all be worth it in January when I am sitting on the beach with a margarita...


twizted sizter
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:52 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Haven't lost cable yet but by the sound of the winds right now I'm sure it will be soon...already have puddles in the yard...ground is saturated...definitly didn't need anymore rain here,,,hope I don't regret not getting sandbags...the NoName & some system in 98/99 flooded us bad...water into my garage with both...and I'm not even in a flood zone.

Stay safe everyone.


Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:53 AM
Re: NHC Webcam

Yeah, I found it very disturbing that the "photo of the storm" last night on Washington Post's website was a Rueters photo of "Child playing in storm-induced surf on Key West" - how stupid can people get?

kenwoodssaman
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:53 AM
Re: NHC Webcam

Quote:

Various media outlets saying landfall has occured on Cape Romaneo (sp)...good track by NHC...don't see how or why anyone could fault it...nasty, nasty weather here...gonna be a long day.



AT 630 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA MADE LANDFALL VERY
NEAR CAPE ROMANO FLORIDA. THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 20 MILES WEST OF
EVERGLADES CITY FLORIDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL WERE
ESTIMATED TO BE 125 MPH...A STRONG CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE.
NHC Update


leetdan
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:55 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Not to derail, but this has some major problems. Lines and poles will go down regardless, and it would take a very long time to visually inspect every single pole and transformer in the grid. There are also many ground-based transformers in new developments, even harder to inspect.

If ANY transformer was justled and has a short inside, it will simply wait for reacivation to explode all the same.

Meanwhile, winds have picked up considerably in Jupiter, but surprisingly enough the newspaper was delivered on time.


Multi-Decadal Signal
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:55 AM
Re: Pummeling in Palmetto Bay, FL

Quote:

The wind train is nearing. We're getting a good pummeling this morning.


edited by me.

Just lost Comcast Cable TV connextion. Wind howling. Floor to ceiling sliding doors bowing in and out. Lights flickering. Good night and Good luck.


kenwoodssaman
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:57 AM
Re: NHC Webcam

New Advisory, down to 120 now, but pressure held at 950. Looks like we definitely got a three. Public Advisory

laureg
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:58 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall



WPTV reporting winds have picked up about 10 mph in last hour Ft Lauderdale and south. SE of Hollywood showing sustained winds at 71


Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:59 AM
Re: Pummeling in Palmetto Bay, FL

Bouy at Naples, FL is reading 962mb:

http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?station_info=8725110&flag=0

Bouy list: http://tidesonline.nos.noaa.gov/?sn=24&yd=297&ah=10


IamTracy
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 07:02 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

We're getting a lots of heavy rain and wind gusts in Polk County. I dread having to drive in it, but have to go to work. Was hoping for a phone call to not come in LOL. Good luck to our southern Florida neighbors.

Tracy


LadyStorm
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 07:03 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Quote:

MaryAnn, and others North of Wilma.

I hoe that you have seen the worst of her. However...if she makes an early turn she could run just off of the East Florida Coast...Just a heads up.

here is Fred and BamBam when you need them?




Our local mets are saying to expect the worst of her around mid day. We are supposed to get 50 mph sustained with gusts to 65. Wilma is a large storm and as she becomes extratropical her wind field will expand.

MaryAnn


laureg
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 07:03 AM
Re: NHC Webcam

My daughter went to the beach yesterday with friends and was turned away due to the mandatory evacuations...and hello, look where we are...local government stepping in and taking care of things... and that is just fine by me.

Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 07:04 AM
Re: Pummeling in Palmetto Bay, FL

Been trying to tell you for 1/2 hour that we lost power in Tampa 4x now,everytime I write it the power goes out. May have to switch to AirCard pretty soon, Teco has real problems in my neighborhood, too many dang oaks. Be safe everyone

LadyStorm
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 07:14 AM
Pummeling in Ormond Beach, Cold Front?

Temps are dropping fairly quickly here, 5 degrees in the past half hour. Could be the Cold Front droping farther south????

laureg
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 07:20 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Quote:



WPTV reporting winds have picked up about 10 mph in last hour Ft Lauderdale and south. SE of Hollywood showing sustained winds at 71




make that gusts...


OrlandoDan
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 07:21 AM
Re: Pummeling in Ormond Beach, Cold Front?

Temps are down here in Longwood too.

charlottefl
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 07:24 AM
Re: Pummeling in Ormond Beach, Cold Front?

Winds are gusting to around 50 here maybe a little over, very heavy rain, and the wind dramatically increases with each rain band.. Will keep updated..

Port Charlotte


Sheeper
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 07:28 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

0730 from the Treasure Coast. Power went out at the Red Cross command center and EOC at 0700 (figues, don't it?). Seems to be isolated for now. Rain is pounding us with some good 45+MPH gusts.

All...stay dry, stay safe!


Floridacane
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 07:29 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Gusting to about 35 here in Palm Bay and under a tornado warning and its pouring. That's about the extent of it so far.

funky
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 07:38 AM
What a mess!

i can't believe this, but here in 34202 (sarasota/bradenton) it is getting worse still. i guess the backside of this thing was more extreme, i don't know. my neighborhood looks like it is going to fall apart....

i love the boynton beach weather station thing....cool!


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 07:42 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Location in Tampa, highest gust 40

LadyStorm
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 07:48 AM
Re: What a mess!

Quote:

i can't believe this, but here in 34202 (sarasota/bradenton) it is getting worse still. i guess the backside of this thing was more extreme, i don't know. my neighborhood looks like it is going to fall apart....

i love the boynton beach weather station thing....cool!




Its been my experience in the hurricanes that I have been through that the back side is always the worst. Hang on and stay safe.


TomKuhn
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 07:48 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

WOW!!

I just checked the Duval St. Web Cam. It looks like Duval Street Key West is under water.

http://webcam.keywest.com/ Click on the Duval St. Camera.

Tom


laureg
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 07:55 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

wish i had a wind guage here, i can only say it's windy...best guess wd be gusting at approx 45+

mysticalmooons
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:00 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

holy cow, is brevard county like a tornado magenet of something? wind is 25mph in rockledge via weatherbug, hehe

hey its free too, lol. rockledge under tornado warning


laureg
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:04 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Re: Duval...WOW! is right! I can't believe it!

Winds here are picking up now very, very strong. Power has commenced flickering so not too sure how long I will be around...


WXMAN RICHIE
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:05 AM
Pressure Drop

My pressure dropped .27" in the last hour. HOLY COW!! Down to 28.80"!!!!!!!!!!!! Winds now constantly gusting 55-60 mph.

abyrd
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:05 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Never thought I'd have to deal with wind chill in a tropical system. Here in Apopka, not a lot of sustained winds but gust to probably 25. Raining pretty good, but I am really surprised at how much the temperature has dropped in the last eight hours.

mysticalmooons
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:06 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

hey I wonder if Ill get mail today, hehe

Addicted2Cane
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:08 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Citrus County........Cold front definately here or moving through..temps dropping, rainy, light gusts. I would guess it's gonna clear out quickly and the temps drop even further.

g1bass
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:11 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!!!

Steady soaking rain, no winds or maybe gentle gusts up to 5-10 mph. But its like 58 degrees!!!! very chilly and damp and much more seasonal. Thats about it from the Nature Coast.


collegemom
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:14 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

anyone from Melbourne? Please post conditions.
PM works too


Bookworm
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:17 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Here in New Port Richey, some of my neighbors actually took out the trash last night, even though the county is pretty much shut-down for today. The cans are rolling up and down the street, and there's trash everywhere. Not too bad here, thankfully- just some rain and occasional wind gusts <25 mph I would guess, and I'm assuming this is the worst it will get.

On a side note, I'm watching CNN and wondering why on earth these reporters are risking their lives, and the lives of their camera crews, standing outside in the worst of the storm, struggling against the wind and rain. We know it's bad, and our thoughts are with the people in the affected areas. They don't need to prove how unsafe it is, do they?


RockledgeRick
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:19 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

There are now trucks in the frame in that Duval St cam. Water is barely up to the middle of the wheels, so it's not quite as bad as it first looked.

mysticalmooons
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:21 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Not from melbourne but in rockledge a little north of you. Rainy windy and tornado threat here. winds from the NE at 25-30 mph. 29.35 pressure and falling

laureg
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:23 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Quote:

hey I wonder if Ill get mail today, hehe




cracking up...better hang onto the mailbox so they can deliver it...


Sheeper
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:25 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

0822 from the treasure coast. Power outages up and down Indian River and St Lucie counties. about 1100-1200 folks in Red Cross shelters. We're being pelted by some good rains in Vero Beach. Winds are down again but the gusts are higher. actual wind speed as of 0823 was 25MPH

Tornado warnings up and down the county. Tornado spotted near sebastian US1 and 510 area.

more to come......


nicolew
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:30 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

In Palm Beach Gardens, high winds, heavy rain (these hurricane-resistant windows are incredible - makes it scary to see but keeps the noise at a minimum). We still have power and cable here but they say there are heavy bands moving towards us - my aunt called from Boynton Beach, she has no power and the noise in her house from the metal shutters sounds like a freight train. Spoke to a friend in Miami who says they are having 100+ mph winds and Norcross is saying that the eye will not pass over them so they will get no break and may have the most damage - does that verify?

Stay safe!


moody
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:31 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

First time poster here - been reading for about 3 years, though - thank you all for the information!

Satellite Beach here (about 5 mi. No. of Melb. Beach). Sporadic power outages, kinda windy . A couple of tornadoes from what I've heard on the local news, but hopefully none too close...


SEAKRO
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:32 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall


Can any of the mets provide an realtime wind speed site as storm progreses across state?


engicedave
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:32 AM
Re: Pressure Drop

I'm near you Ritchie, In Boynton

Power keeps going off and on, I gave up on it
On lappy battery and cingular wireless card

The worst of the frontside seems to be here


emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:38 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Collegemom,

It's hit and miss in Melb. I'm in Suntree and it's windy and rainy. The closer the the coast the worst from what Im hearing. Tornado have been in south brevard and north brevard. One on John Rhoddes and 192. If there is anything to worry about around FIT I'll PM!


ChessieStorm
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:45 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Reporting in from Spring Hill (Hernando County), not much going, with the back edge of the rain starting to come through and should end in the next hour. Rain showers all night, highest wind gust was 39 mph in the early morning hours.

Rainfall has been light near only 1 inch. 40 miles to the east places received 6-8 inches, doppler estimates from storm cells that just sat there last night.

Temps have dropped to 59° and continue to fall.


laureg
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:48 AM
Re: Pressure Drop

Good SE FL coverage...

http://www.tcpalm.com/tcp/wptv


BullitNutz
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:48 AM
At UCF

I'm across the street (And a couple blocks South) of the university. Nothing too spectacular. Wind, rain, the occasional gust that hammers the rain against my window and flutters the cheap vinyl siding (Yay apartments being built by the lowest bidder) but I'n in no danger at all. Charley rolled through here, and aside from the food going bad (I had left instructions to put the meat in a cooler when I went home to Pasco, roommates left for the shelter on campus without doing that, 5 days without power = "jesus h. christ what's that smell?") no damage was sustained by my apartment. Currently, I'm just keeping a continuous trickle of beer going on and keeping tabs on the radar.

RockledgeRick
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:48 AM
Re: Pressure Drop

Wilma is definitely clipping along. Already south of Okeechobee. She'll be back over open water by noon at this rate.. maybe sooner.

tpratch
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:56 AM
Melbourne

Palm Bay here. Windy, rainy, just had a few minutes of gentle breezes and very light rain give way to renewed heavy rains. Tornados have been spawning around my general area but staying away from where I am for now. Lost power once in a beautiful green-blue flash, got it back in short order.

Hard to say if we've gotten or worst yet or not.


marcsantoli
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:57 AM
Re: At UCF

I'm fairly close to UCF as well and conditions are certainly better than they were in Charley although they appear to have gotten a noticeably worse in the past 15 minutes. Longer periods of sustained winds and definitely more driving rain. My work said to call at 10 or so and find out if I need to come in at noon. Now to me it just doesn't seem safe to be driving at all today.

Thanks for all the great information everyone!

-Marc


BC
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 09:02 AM
Re: Melbourne

Satellite Beach here - fairly heavy wind and rain, the wind is pretty steady but the rain is off and on..... about what I expected, nothing too terrible.

laureg
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 09:02 AM
Re: Melbourne

Just heard from my friend in Homestead who said he lost the roof off the screened in porch...had no power...and still getting pummelled as of this writing...

Here in PSL steady strong winds and rain. Any news on damage on west coast and Keys?


StPeteBill
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 09:08 AM
Re: Melbourne

I know the word "Tampa" can spark controversy here but have we seen the worst of our winds and threat of tornadoes here in the St Pete/Tampa area?

Ned
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 09:13 AM
Re: Melbourne

Quote:

I know the word "Tampa" can spark controversy here but have we seen the worst of our winds and threat of tornadoes here in the St Pete/Tampa area?


Not qualified to answer that,but know who could

RockledgeRick
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 09:17 AM
Re: Melbourne

Looking at radar, I'd say Tampa will be sunny and cool within two hours. That front is really clearing things out fast right behind the storm.

3rdGenFlaNative
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 09:19 AM
Tornadoes gone???

Hey guys. Things in Lakeland seem to be improving by the hour. Still windy, some rain, and occasional strong gusts, but I get the feeling the worst for us is over. Last night was pretty dicey - as some of you may be aware, I had a minor meltdown last night when Polk County started getting bombarded with tornado warnings, touchdowns, and threats of tornado "clusters". I got it together though, and sat up all night listening for the freight train I was expecting to plow into my bedroom. It never came.

Although there are reports of tornado touchdowns near here, I haven't heard of any extensive damage yet. My power flickered a few times & DSL went down for a couple of hours, but other than that, I'd say we're pretty lucky. After I got back on line, I caught up with all the postings. Sounds like many had an exciting night! Hope everyone is safe and sound. I know many of our neighbors to the south and east still have some rough moments ahead. Stay safe - we're praying for you.

Oh - and thanks again to everyone who talked me through my "episode" last night! This site has been a godsend!


StPeteBill
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 09:19 AM
Re: Melbourne

Quote:

Quote:

I know the word "Tampa" can spark controversy here but have we seen the worst of our winds and threat of tornadoes here in the St Pete/Tampa area?


Not qualified to answer that,but know who could




I knew that was coming Ned, set myself right up for it, lol.


TampaDon
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 09:19 AM
Re: Melbourne

Check this link: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p19r0/si.ktbw.shtml

B.C.Francis
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 09:22 AM
Re: Melbourne

Channel 9 had a report of a tornado in Melbourne off of 192 I think out near Wickham. Live report showed an apartment complex with a rather large part of the roof torn off in a couple of places and some vehicles with their windows blown out. Also the said, one car was thrown some distance away back in some woods where some large oak trees where blown down....Real heavy rain here at times, I can hear the surf from my house . When the rains let up a bit I`ll try and get some pictures.....Weatherchef

HCW
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 09:39 AM
Re: Melbourne

I just moved my radar back over . Sorry about sleeping in

http://hardcoreweather.com/showthread.php?t=4173


jmk818
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 09:39 AM
Due North

Anyone else notice the almost due north jog (perhaps trend) in the last hour or three? http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/amx_NCR_lp.shtml

Lysis
(User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 09:43 AM
Re: Due North

While we didn’t get anything worth bragging about, there was some pretty cool stuff here last night and this morning. Strong TS winds all morning… definite gusts well over 70mph starting at around 7:00 am. I am not sure any winds here were sustained at hurricane force… maybe around 7:45 – 8:15 when the pressure bottomed out in the low 980’s. There was a 100mph gust confirmed at Ft Myers, so it’s probable. At any rate, my footage is a heck of a lot better than the stuff coming from the keys on TWC.

Here:

Some small palms are down, which was surprising to me, and I saw about four or five transformers pop over the river in Port Charlotte. Big waves crashing up along the sea wall. The tide is unusually low, and the temperature has dropped a few degrees.

My dad’s campground at Big Cyprus National preserve was probably wiped out… I may go down there and get some footage of the area if I can.

Not too shabby for a storm so far away from me.

Oh yeah… I did the Cantore thing and got blasted in the street.

I will make a wmv. of some footage of me bieng an idiot later today.


sunshinemamax2
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 09:46 AM
Re: Due North

Lurker here, been lurking since Charley! Thanks for all of the great information, this has been an amazing resource over the past year!

Here in Kissimmee near Lake Toho, it looks like the worst we had so far was around 7:30 this morning. Lost some branches, power went off and on twice, nothing too terrible. About the same conditions as Jeanne and Frances.


nandav
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 09:46 AM
Re: Due North

In North Port (34286) still gusty and rainy, but not as much as before. Temperature is dropping.. was 77 when we got up at 6 am, now down to 62 (according to TWC .. but, of course, they also reported our weather as being "Foggy" in the middle of it all). It's done a nice job pruning the dead leaves from our palm trees, but that's about all... NOTHING like Charley!

DMFischer
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 09:54 AM
Re: Due North

Well, it has been interesting here, last night one tornado went over the house and touched down about 2 miles from me in Cocoa Village, that storm cell was so intense it shook my house. Kids slept in the hallway on mattresses. Ran out last night before it all cut loose to get a kid from a party and found this morning that my daughter left her window down on the car. *rolling eyes*
Right now the wind is gusting pretty good, but the water is up to our knees at the end of our driveway, and no end to the deluge yet. Its getting cool out there too.
Been watching the radar, looks like the eye will come out on the other side pretty well intact, and the cells of TS still spawning to the north of the eye. Stay dry everyone, and safely inside. Good day to do homework.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 09:55 AM
Re: Due North

Still raining and windy here with gusts I would imagine sustained around 27 mph. at times. We have 61 degrees and I have no clue as to the windchill factor but it's winter to me. No wind damage that I can tell. Wondering about how far this storm will get off the coast from us since it is progged to go up the coast. Would the eastern coast line into the center of the Peninsula have to deal with more of it?

Garcia
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 09:59 AM
Re: Due North

Is there anybody with news from Miami? Please be friendly and tell me what is going on there?
Thank you


TinaB
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:02 AM
Re: Melbourne

Quote:

I know the word "Tampa" can spark controversy here but have we seen the worst of our winds and threat of tornadoes here in the St Pete/Tampa area?




Yea, what it is about Tampa? It actually seems to be a bit worse as far as winds right now than it was earlier when those bands were moving through (about 6-7am). But the temps are definitely falling...it's actually cool out there! My thermometer says its 59 degrees..wow...those are winter temps for Florida


emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:05 AM
Re: Due North

Most likely it will be difficult for those in the Miami area to post. I have heard there are lots without power in that area.

damejune2
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:06 AM
Re: Melbourne

Tornado watch is over, wasn't supposed to expire until 11am, but the NWS did away with it earlier due to storms rapid movement across the state. I think you are safe. Highlands County is the only county with a tornado watch still in effect.

It's 65 degrees here in Bradenton and very windy. Rain has subsided, although still overcast. It's kind of like a normal fall day in New England and for those of you who have been in New England in the fall, 25-35 mph winds are not uncommon. Hope everyone else faired ok.


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:06 AM
Re: Melbourne

We have probably seen the worst at this point in Tampa pending some other freaky move by Wilma. Might I remind everyone hear however that there is currently a portion of the circulation over water again now, keep your guard up.

Sheeper
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:07 AM
Re: Melbourne

1000 treasure coast update....pounding now with winds over 40mph but no hurricane force winds in Indian River. Somewhat higher in St Lucie County. Storm is moving thru quickly, in fact faster than expected.

with luck another 90 minutes to 2 hours before we get significant relief


Tazmanian93
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:07 AM
Re: Due North

You can click on this link and watch live

http://www.wfor.com/


nl
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:08 AM
Re: Melbourne

ok and now for the billion dollar question of the yr. for the mets is it safe too say that the hurricane threat is finally over with? i mean it looks like summer is finally over down here and everyone should agree and hope that this is it for this yr.

damejune2
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:13 AM
Re: Melbourne

That's a good question and i'll try to answer it even though i am not a met. On the news this morning they were talking about that and what the met said was this: With the cold front coming through and temps dropping and fall weather upon us, water temps will fall, thus making it difficult for any storms to come up this way and or develop.

michgirl
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:14 AM
Re: Melbourne

Hello!
I am looking for any information on the current status, i.e. forcast and conditions in Cocoa. I am in Michigan and my grandparents' house is there. Any updates or information would be greatly appreciated.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:15 AM
Re: Melbourne

Five weeks remain in the hurricane season. It is not unlikely we'll see a Beta (just hope they don't jump the gun like they did with Alpha).

I called 950mb last night, and she got that low -- wow. Strong Cat 3; S. FL took a hit, and in retrospect Max M's initial tv conference would seem to be entirely appropriate. Continued slow intensification right up until land. The eye always looked rounded on radar even if the convection gave an odd appearance on sat. Wonder how bad the flooding was at Key West. Only have a couple minutes...I just checked the sat loops and the NHC advis archive. I'll catch up later!


Geoff
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:15 AM
Re: Wilma Nearing Landfall

Is that surge, or rain water? We just got back from there last week and they looked like they were still cleaning up from Rita in some areas; there were large piles of debris by the side of the road all the way down. I talked to a carpenter working on a project there and he said he had removed 2 tons of seaweed from his yard after Rita.

By the way, I just saw a row boat go by on the webcam.


Quote:

WOW!!

I just checked the Duval St. Web Cam. It looks like Duval Street Key West is under water.

http://webcam.keywest.com/ Click on the Duval St. Camera.

Tom




marknccbch
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:22 AM
Re: Melbourne

michgirl,

i live in coco beach and things have been breezy but not too bad. during the night there were a couple of tornados, one touching down in cocoa village (downtown cocoa at 520 and the indian river) Unless your folks were in the path of a tornado, the hurricane probably didn't do them harm (unless they live in a trailer...)


StPeteBill
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:25 AM
Re: Melbourne

Quote:

Quote:

I know the word "Tampa" can spark controversy here but have we seen the worst of our winds and threat of tornadoes here in the St Pete/Tampa area?




Yea, what it is about Tampa? It actually seems to be a bit worse as far as winds right now than it was earlier when those bands were moving through (about 6-7am). But the temps are definitely falling...it's actually cool out there! My thermometer says its 59 degrees..wow...those are winter temps for Florida




I am in Clearwater at the office right now and the winds are without a doubt stronger now than they were at 7:00 or 8:00 am this morning and they seem to be sustained instead of gust. Is this resulting from the cold front moving in?

As far as what it is about Tampa? Well it seems like from their postings that we have a few "wishcasters" around here and it is annoying and gets people going. I question if they have ever been through a hurricane or not and know what it can be like. I use to live in the p'handle and after Opal hit in 95 I have a whole new respect and fear of these things.


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:26 AM
Re: Melbourne

cold 57 degrees in O'town this morning. Looking forward to the sun coming out in an hour or so.

Interesting rain event for us, little else.
Thoughts to all in South Florida who are w/o power and flooded.


nicolew
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:28 AM
Re: Miami

I just spoke to my friend in Miami (I left to come to my parents in Palm Beach) - she lives in Schenley Park, just west of Coral Gables. She says they have received no break, the eye did not come over them and remarked that the winds on the back side seem to be even stronger than the front. She says she has been hearing roof tiles hit her house and noticed that her neighbors are missing between 50-75% of their roof tiles. Apparently, Bryan Norcross is telling them that it will be 2 pm before the winds pass. They lost power early this morning. I am a little scared to see what I am going to be going home to in MIami when I finally return. Sorry I don't have more news but you can always watch www.wfor.com live feed - they are doing a great job!

jusforsean
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:31 AM
Re: Miami

Hello All,
We are here originally stayed at my brother in laws apt, evacuated from our mobile home here in davie and we checked into a hotel at midnight and it was the best decision ever. Things are bad here roof tiles blowing, windows etc. All my family and friends from miami beach to sunrise have damage. I dont believe my mobile home will still be there. say a prayre for us and all. stay safe we are geting the back end now its pretty nasty out there.
Luck to all....Just wanted to touch base


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:32 AM
Re: Melbourne

Wunderground is not showing pressure for West Palm Beach right now, but Jupiter (also in the eye) showing pressure of 960.9.

KiminCanada
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:43 AM
Re: Melbourne

Hi everyone.....great job on keeping us all informed.

I have 2 questions if I might.......Do you at all see Wilma curving back into the States or Canada.

Also, CNN this morning said Alpha was gone.....is that right????

Thanks

Kim


Orlandoman
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:45 AM
Re: conditions

East Orlando conditions are Rain and Wind....When do we get out of this situation.....(ALMOST LIKE CHARLIE)

michgirl
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:48 AM
Re: Melbourne

Mark,
They are near Forest Lakes. Do you know that area? That is a modular and mobil home area.


Kevin
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:48 AM
Re: Melbourne

Same here a little NW of Orlando...the highest wind gust was around 25 mph. The rain was blowing diagonally for a little while; a bit on the heavy side at times.

Compared to what we've seen in South Florida, this has been a relative non-event for Central Florida. Good luck to those in SFL.

Also looks like we're going to see a rather dramatic clearing this afternoon.


TinaB
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:49 AM
Re: Melbourne

Alpha is naught but a TD according to the latest advisory from the NHC. Still moving North

Back to Wilma...I'm guessing it's the front that is causing that west side of the storm to flatten like that? Almost as if it's saying "get on out of here!"

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/FLOAT/IR4/20.jpg


marknccbch
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:52 AM
Re: Melbourne

wind is starting to pick here in cocoa beach, power has been flickering

looks like we are going to get the west side of it as it starts to track NE

wind really wipping from the NE to the SW, guessing that we will have 3hrs of this


royener
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:01 AM
Re: Melbourne

We are getting sunshine a bit windy and cold, around old Tampa bay, but nothing out of the ordinary (except the temps).
Heavy seas running the beach is deserted http://www.wtvt.com/clwcam.htm

Good luck to you guys who are catching the real storm


GLT
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:07 AM
Re: conditions

Oh come on (unapproved smiley face) ..this isn't even like Jeanne or Frances (25 M North of orlando here)..

Heck I even slept thru Charlie (reminds me of Animal House - my advice to you son is to drink heavily).. then you can sleep right thru these things.

OK info - here it is gusty -not bad. Many palm frowns in the yard. Estimate (wild guess) 2" of rain so far. Very wet.

Have a question... friends boss wants him to work today (Longwood, FL) . No real point unless UPS picks up and I don't think they will.

So question: Is UPS operating in Central FL today?

Thanks for all for the info from everyone.

GLT

P.S. Very thankful here. Best wishes to those not as lucky.


charlottefl
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:10 AM
Re: Melbourne

Up here in Port Charlotte it's still gusting in the 50's temp outside is 62 degrees. Just talked to my dad in Naples. They lost 4 or 5 trees and lost part of the air conditioning on the building . He said the back side was far worse. My uncle in Port St. Lucie said winds there were well over 100. He lost his fence, neighbor lost a huge tree and a trampoline slammed into a building.

emackl
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:13 AM
Re: Melbourne

We are getting pounded in Melb. Worst we've had all morning. Wind is really whipping with lots of rain. The pine trees on the golf course are leaning like crazy. I'm sure it's nothing like those in the south are seeing though.

poetdi
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:15 AM
Re: conditions

Maitland checking in - agree that this is nothing like last year. Charley went right over us, no power for 5 days. This (Wilma) has been gusty at times, lots of rain, and my unscientific measurement based on how low the pool was yesterday, and the fact it's almost overflowing now, is that we've had about 3-4 inches of rain. It's gusting again now, and cool temps.

Our hearts go out to everyone in South Fla. We really do feel your pain.
Diane


michgirl
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:21 AM
Re: Melbourne

Mark,
Still hanging on there in Cocoa?
Any changes/updates??


Geoff
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:21 AM
Re: conditions

One thing we all know from going through quite a few of these things is that it depends on where you are in relation to these bands as they travel across. When "Orlandoman" posted it looked on the RADAR as through they were getting a heavy band through his area in east Orlando, and it looked like they were adjacent to or under a flood watch. It could very well been "almost like Charlie" to him (from an Orlando perspective, that is). Good luck to all of you!

Quote:

Oh come on (unapproved smiley face) ..this isn't even like Jeanne or Frances (25 M North of orlando here)..

Heck I even slept thru Charlie (reminds me of Animal House - my advice to you son is to drink heavily).. then you can sleep right thru these things.

OK info - here it is gusty -not bad. Many palm frowns in the yard. Estimate (wild guess) 2" of rain so far. Very wet.

Have a question... friends boss wants him to work today (Longwood, FL) . No real point unless UPS picks up and I don't think they will.

So question: Is UPS operating in Central FL today?

Thanks for all for the info from everyone.

GLT

P.S. Very thankful here. Best wishes to those not as lucky.




GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:26 AM
Re: conditions

Absolutely correct. Tampa has sunshine we are 40 miles to the east and we have rain and wind still....It is the position of the storm. One person's storm is another persons good luck in Florida.

marknccbch
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:31 AM
Re: Melbourne

Michgirl,

having a grand old time here in Cocoa Beach. Constant winds for about the last 30minutes and some good gust. On the positive side, I wont need to trim the palm fronds off the washingtonians for a few more months since most of the old fronds are blown away.

hopefully only a couple more hours. From the 11am NHC report, we are about 90NM from the center of WILMA.

hoping this thing goes more ENE than NE


Southern4sure
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:33 AM
New warning?

Just recently scrolling at the bottom of the tv screen was a list of counties under a hurrinace warning including mine Pasco. Other counties are Manatee, Hillsborough, Pinellas, Polk, Hernando, Sarasota, De Soto. I thought as of about an hour ago, conditions were improving on the west coast. Is there more going on than I thought? Several stations are scrolling......

marknccbch
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:37 AM
Re: Melbourne

Michgirl,

Florida today has updates on happenings around Brevard. I do know where Forest Lakes is (520 and I95)
haven't heard anything..

as for FlaToday, website is here http://flatoday.com/apps/pbcs.dll/frontpage


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:44 AM
Re: Melbourne

Quote:

Hi everyone.....great job on keeping us all informed.

I have 2 questions if I might.......Do you at all see Wilma curving back into the States or Canada.

Also, CNN this morning said Alpha was gone.....is that right????

Thanks

Kim




Hi Kim,
That is not the vibe I'm getting off the models in the last 24 hours...
Our options with Wilma after Florida are simple:
1) She gets whipped up into the graveyard within the barotropic region of an intensifying coastal cyclogenisis along the U.S. Mid Atlantic...and "casperates" - my invented term for becoming none-consequentially invisible
or
2) She gets pulled up the warm conveyor belt steering field and is utterly gobbled alive by the faaaaar superior mechanical power of the extra-tropical system.

3 days ago, if you'd asked me I'd have picked option 2. The possibility that a -3.5SD anomaly, centered near S PA also responsible for generating a powerful Nor'easter (seemed like it was attempting to phase Wilma's death gasp in for a kind of pheonix phenom), was all too tastey to ignore. ...Basically, that Wilma would join the party by getting pulled up the warm conveyor belt - offering some semblence of a "Perfect Storm" type scenario - where the two would phase near the eastern tip of Long Island.. Essentially, a dooms day scenario for eastern New England up through Nova Scotia.

...Since then, the models, particularly the GFS and the those that are derived from the GFS, they have been finding least excuse to keep the two entities separate until Wilma completely deteriorates. In fact, as the models have it I would be less inclined to really think Wilma will transition into anything - more like, get abolished is what the GFS from 18z yesterday, and then 00z and 06z overnight, has been indicating... Though, as a correction and perhaps a better intuitive fit, I think a substantial amount of her mojo is going to getting leached off - kind of like a black hole sucks off plasma from a nearby stellar companion - and this will aid in intensification with all that latent heat injection.

...This is an utterly fascinating, somewhat rare scenario; even in the lesser phased result that is true.

A coastal storm of all seasons really, will be taking place overnight and Tuesday. In VT, there are Winter Storm watches posted and the FOUS numbers of the NAM are indicating better than a foot of snow as far SE as Rutland (I'd show you the grid but the cut/paste makes the data too difficult to deal with)... While that is happening, Nantuckett (Island) should be about 62F (...I can just hear those Floridian's terror over bone-chilling 62 degrees...) with winds gusting to near hurricane force... Absolutely phenomenal H850mb thermal gradient and baroclinicity bifurcating the area signals extreme lower tropospheric instability (not to mention mesoscale frontogenic forcing normally associate with cyclogenisis). This will maximize the PW values that are exceeding 2", over a 14 hour interval. Excessive rain potential exists over an area that has very low F guidance due to anomalous event earlier in the month. We have wet ground and week root systems (thank goodness the foliage is half stripped) and rivers saying "go ahead, I are yah to even spill a cup of water", and they'll be over their banks... All the while, a hurricane is passing some 200nautical miles SE of Cape? Gee whiz.


This is really turning out to be one hell of a stormy month up here in tattered and torn New England...But we'll never making much press in the matter in lieu of the bigger issues down S this year.

Anyway, at least for New England, we really don't need to have Wilma - per say - to have a potentially destructive event, though Wilma will be partially to blame for bringing her fuel up into this extra-tropical system. New England to Nova Scotia are going to have a notable Nor'easter with winds gusting to 55kts and torrents of rain anyway - there is still some wild card about how much of Wilma will be incorporated, but at this time, the full-phased hyper storm scenario is appearing less likely... That really would have been just about the only way Wilma could have had any secondary U.S. or Nova Scotia type impact, is through a hybrid type rarety; due to the fact that the large scale synoptics responsible for important East Coastal cyclogenisis had proxy and presents in the spacial-temporal arrangement of all players.

It just intrigues me that with a ridge in the Atlantic E of 65W, and such a huge negative anomaly along the App. Cordellera, that Wilma can be modeled to get thrown into cold labradore waters SE of Nova Scotia (GFS) to where it just...poof, ceases to exist... I would have thought that a more N turn would be warranted, like the model suggested 3 days ago and has stubburnly lost and refuse to negotiate in the matter.. (can you tell I'm frustrated).. Anyway, it is worth noting that a) this isn't etched in stone and b)...the NAM, which was entirely useless up until last night's 00z run, has been showing a bit more of a relationship with the Wilma and the extra-tropical, mid Atlantic cyclogenisis; much less of a "dumb-belled" looking system and a bit more singular synthesis of the two... But then again, if the NAM solution pans out, you'd expect a deeper result, too - so something is wrong there...

Basically...No Wilma in the sense of a secondary hurricane impact but definitely a very complex series of events over the next 24 to 36 hours!


Giggles9CC
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:46 AM
Re: conditions

I work up in Lake Mary, right above Longwood--and yes, I'm at work And we have been told there is no UPS and no FedEx service today, but the post office is open. That should help your friend....I'd say, don't go to work!

TinaB
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:46 AM
Re: New warning?

Quote:

Just recently scrolling at the bottom of the tv screen was a list of counties under a hurrinace warning including mine Pasco. Other counties are Manatee, Hillsborough, Pinellas, Polk, Hernando, Sarasota, De Soto. I thought as of about an hour ago, conditions were improving on the west coast. Is there more going on than I thought? Several stations are scrolling......




It is my understanding that those counties are under a tropical strom warning, not a hurricane warning. Not sure where the TV is getting their info. Directly from the NHC:

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST NORTH OF LONGBOAT KEY TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER... AND ALONG THE
FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF TITUSVILLE TO ST. AUGUSTINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTLINE AND
TIDAL SHORELINES OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...PASCO...
HERNANDO CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NON COASTAL OR
NON TIDAL LOCATIONS OF MANATEE...PINELLAS...HILLSBOROUGH...POLK...
PASCO...HERNANDO...CITRUS...SUMTER AND LEVY COUNTIES.

I think this is in effect until 2pm today. It doesn't mean however, that we will experience those conditions until the cutoff time. It's just a warning of potential weather. I think you can be pretty confident that Pasco is pretty much safe from hurricane conditions at this point. The winds are still a little gusty, but otherwise things look great here in Tampa!


Geoff
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:49 AM
Re: New warning?

Looking at the end of the visible GOES loop it looks to me like she's starting to elongate and displace, but I may be wrong. Hopefully once offshore it will be the last we'll ever see of Wilma here in Florida. By the way, the sun is shining where I am here in Tampa; so for what it's worth, there is a light at the end of the tunnel!

Quote:

Just recently scrolling at the bottom of the tv screen was a list of counties under a hurrinace warning including mine Pasco. Other counties are Manatee, Hillsborough, Pinellas, Polk, Hernando, Sarasota, De Soto. I thought as of about an hour ago, conditions were improving on the west coast. Is there more going on than I thought? Several stations are scrolling......




KiminCanada
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:50 AM
Re: Melbourne

Thank you so much for the reply but sorry you lost me......Does this mean you don't think Wilma will come back and hit Canada or the States????

My reason for asking is I am flying out of Buffalo very early Wed morning and I am just curious if I should move my flight up to Tues night????

What do you all think????

Sorry for asking such a unimportant question when peoples homes are being damaged with this terrible storm but if I can all avoid my flight being cancelled by moving it I would like to.

Thanks again for all your help.

Kim


Southern4sure
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:53 AM
Re: New warning?

Quote:

The winds are still a little gusty, but otherwise things look great here in Tampa!




This is what I thought here in Land o Lakes. Channel 15 is one station and alittle earlier channel 13 was the same. Im just confused ....before Wilma came onshore we were in a TS warning...but now a Hurricane warning??


TinaB
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:55 AM
Re: New warning?

Quote:



This is what I thought here in Land o Lakes. Channel 15 is one station and alittle earlier channel 13 was the same. Im just confused ....before Wilma came onshore we were in a TS warning...but now a Hurricane warning??




I think the TV's must have their scrollers wrong...I don't think we have ever been under a hurricane warning in Hillsborough or Pasco County. I hope someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but I've been watching this like a hawk since last week and don't recall one.


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:57 AM
Re: Melbourne

Quote:

Thank you so much for the reply but sorry you lost me......Does this mean you don't think Wilma will come back and hit Canada or the States????

My reason for asking is I am flying out of Buffalo very early Wed morning and I am just curious if I should move my flight up to Tues night????

What do you all think????

Sorry for asking such a unimportant question when peoples homes are being damaged with this terrible storm but if I can all avoid my flight being cancelled by moving it I would like to.

Thanks again for all your help.

Kim




Sorry, I'd hoped that some of the answers were implicit in that last post (hope it wasn't a waste of time)..
Question 1: No
Question 2: Not likely, but delays are always possible in active weather regimes.
Question 3: Don't know what the others think but I think you should be Ok in BUF.


Southern4sure
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:58 AM
Re: New warning?

Im beginning to think the same...they're scrollers are wrong. Pasco was never in the Hurricane Warning area to begin with...just TS warning.

KiminCanada
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:05 PM
Re: Melbourne

No it was very informative...I am learning alot about this active type of weather from you all.

I just wanted to make sure I understood correctly.

Thank you for taking the time to respond.....


michgirl
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:12 PM
Re: Melbourne

Mark,
Thank you again for taking the time to keep me aprised. It is so difficult to be so far away here in Michigan and try to wonder what the situation is down there. The last news blip I caught on the net was a flash flood warning for that area......Hopefully all fares well for you and everyone else in that area. God Bless....


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:18 PM
Re: conditions

I'll second that, Guppie Grouper! I would say that the winds may have even picked up a bit here as the storm moves off the coast and into the Atlantic...which was not unexpected given the size of the storm and the relative position of where the heavy bands are as it passes by our area. About an hour ago, a gust came through here that knocked over one of my little tables outside, shattering the glass table top and sending whatever was on it about 2 feet away....I was a little shocked at that.
This storm reminds me a lot of what Charley was like last year here where I live...gusty winds, not a whole lot of rain.
I hope all of our friends in all the affected areas are safe and haven't seen too much damage.
I am blowing Wilma a BIG FAT KISS GOODBYE!
I sure hope to hear that Polk County schools will be open tomorrow...my kids are crawling the walls...


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:20 PM
Re: conditions

good morning to our systems... bye bye to wilma
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/TRCwilma297_G12.jpg

later Guys!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/FLT/T2/RGB.jpg


pincty
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:24 PM
Re: New warning?

Pinellas and Pasco were never in a hurricane warning or hurricane watch. In Tarpon Springs its a bit breezy but actually nice outside. I moved my garbage cans in last night but left the porch furniture out and it hasn't moved. I never even considered putting the aluminum panels up.

marknccbch
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:31 PM
Re: Melbourne

Michgirl,

yea your parents live close to lakes and the St Johns River is not that far way.

The gusts really picked up around 11:30. I lost one of my washingtonians. It was about 30 feet tall and just uprooted. Luckily, no damage other than the fence. so now we get to pick up palm fronds and an enitire tree.

the wind is more from the N or the NNW and we are not getting the gusts like earlier. The worst should be behind us now.

Hope your parents are OK


Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:32 PM
Re: Wilma Nearing Florida Exit as a Category 2 Over West Palm Beach

Anyone know about any damage in Fort Lauderdale? Hope everyone in the path is safe and not too much damage although
I would imagine there would be a lot of downed power lines and trees uprooted. At least Wilma was a fast mover.


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:39 PM
Re: conditions

Quote:

good morning to our systems... bye bye to wilma
http://www.osei.noaa.gov/Events/Current/TRCwilma297_G12.jpg

later Guys!
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/GOES/FLT/T2/RGB.jpg




yeah...it's gonna be a phenomenally quick improvement down there.... i'd say by 3 pm there will be a virtual none-event, light N breeze with a few cumulous in the area and a very nice evening...

just take a look at quick the backside of Wilma's circumvellate is approaching Naples... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html

Actually...3pm might be too long... I suspect the most of Penisula will be fair weather during the mid afternoon... May be hard to think of that now but when it clears and the sun comes there's nothing immediately upstream to suggest anything but quiescently placid conditions during the late afternoon - at the latest..

Amazing how quick..


Southern4sure
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:42 PM
Re: New warning?

Yep that is what I said...but why are some stations now scrolling we are???

pincty
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:48 PM
Re: New warning?

Tell me the station and I'll put it on and check.

Southern4sure
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:55 PM
Re: New warning?

Quote:

Tell me the station and I'll put it on and check.




Like I said in an earlier post...channel 15 had a box at the top left corner listing the counties with a hurricane warning and channel 13 was scrolling at the bottom. I do not know if it is still there but it was from about 11 am till 11:45 am.


tpratch
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 12:56 PM
Some Palm Bay flooding pics

The height of it for Brevard county appears to be behind us now. It's almost 15 degrees cooler than it was early this morning. It's incredible to have a hurricane come through to usher in Florida's Fall.

Some pictures via links to make life easiest:

Pic 1
Pic 2
Pic 3
Pic 4
Pic 5


John Mellonhead
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:00 PM
Re: Wilma Nearing Florida Exit as a Category 2 Over West Palm Beach

Quote:

Anyone know about any damage in Fort Lauderdale? Hope everyone in the path is safe and not too much damage although
I would imagine there would be a lot of downed power lines and trees uprooted. At least Wilma was a fast mover.




I live about 7mi SW. I would think the whole county has no power. I have 80% trees snapped or blown over. Fences and gutters down. After going through Katrina where we had 90Mph gusts, I would say at the peak here we had 80-100mph sustained winds for 15 minutes with gusts about 120-130. I was doing some category 3 praying.

Roundup of SE Florida....talked to 7 friends family ranging from Biscayne Bay up to Pt St Lucie.

Coconut Grove- 20th floor high rise had sliding glass buckle in and blow out. Ended up in a closet for a while.

Broward- all screens ripped off. Patios and shutters destroyed on 3 homes. Almost all trees down. Localized flooding.

Miami Shores- Satelite ripped off roof attached to wood causing deterioration of rest of roof. Wooden fence and all trees down.

Lake Worth-(sw Palm beach) Wooden sturdy carport blown to bits. 50 ft tree snapped and landed on house. Whitecaps and emtying of pond.

Pt St Lucie- New roof leaking in multiple places. Estimated winds at 100mph after going through storms last year.

Nobody I talked to in a 110 mile stretch has power. Serious but non-catastrophic damage all throughout SE.

Should be a fun recovery.


pincty
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:02 PM
Re: New warning?

I just checked and didn't see a thing. Trust me, if it was on it had to be an error. It's beautiful out here right now.

Southern4sure
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 01:03 PM
Re: New warning?

Quote:

I just checked and didn't see a thing. Trust me, if it was on it had to be an error. It's beautiful out here right now.




Exactly...thats why I said it had to be an error.


Trekman
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:01 PM
Re: New warning?

000
WTNT64 KNHC 241749
TCUAT4
HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2005

...WILMA RESTRENGTHENS TO CATEGORY 3 OVER THE GULF STREAM...

AT ABOUT 120 PM EDT...AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT REPORTED
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN HURRICANE WILMA WERE NEAR 115
MPH...IN A SMALL REGION SOUTH OF THE CENTER OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY APPROXIMATELY 230 PM EDT...
PRIMARILY TO REVISE THE INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY.

FORECASTER KNABB


mojorox
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:02 PM
Re: New warning?

Still having some 21+ gusts according to my weather station here in Orlando by the exec airport and still raining though the sun just started peeking out. 59 degrees.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:22 PM
Re: New warning?

I don't know that Wilma actually "restrengthened"... it is probably about as strong now as it was when it left the peninsula, though the max winds may have increased somewhat just due to the fact that it is back over water and the frictional drag is less. Very little weakening seemed to occur over the peninsula... the pressure probably rose only about 5-6 mb.

NorEaster
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:29 PM
And the beat goes on dum dum dum..Super Storm NorEaster forming...

Accuweather has been predicting this for the past week, but I wanted to wait for my NWS folks to confirm anything before I started to take notice.

As soon as I saw this..

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=bgm&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch

I knew the established meteorolgists were now on board.

Here is the scenario according to Accuweather...

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-weather-headlines.asp

To further track the storm I'm going with the following page...

http://wxrisk.com/meteopage.html

A couple more links of interest...

http://www.foxphiladelphia.com/weather/

http://www.almanac.com/forum/list.php?9


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:35 PM
Re: New warning?

Quote:

I don't know that Wilma actually "restrengthened"... it is probably about as strong now as it was when it left the peninsula, though the max winds may have increased somewhat just due to the fact that it is back over water and the frictional drag is less. Very little weakening seemed to occur over the peninsula... the pressure probably rose only about 5-6 mb.




...i was thinking the same thing, that wilma decoupled in the frictional environment of land-based boundary layer, as she moved across the peninsula and that her max winds probably never really came down all that much but were lifted above.. now (as you hint) that she is out over water, maybe can once again couple her wind field with the ss...

...but, in the end i have to give it to NHC because they have several techniques, tried and true, for determining wind max and i doubt all those agencies were wrong... ho - hum..

...i'm a little concerned when looking at: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-ir4-loop.html .....that wilma may pass a little bit closer to the ne u.s. coastline... you can really see powerful vort max over eastern ohio, effectively tipping the entire baroclinic leaf that is evident in the sat dramatically n in the last 2-3 hours... but, even the 12z guidance has wilma maintaining a separate entity, not really actually getting all that absorbed into the cyclogenisis along the mid atlantic... (the latter would be impressive if that happened!) anyway, it's a eerie series of images in that loop, and if you didn't know the history and/or didn't have models to depend on - and only saw this - you'd be spooked!


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:36 PM
Re: New warning?

Thought you all would enjoy reading this:

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/wilma.htm

Contains the typical "right stuff" level of understatement.

Well I'm not surprised about the Cat 3 level...she was still intensifying right up until landfall, and didn't seem to miss a beat while over land. As soon as I saw that I started wondering about the Bahamas. What is amazing is that if you look at the 1815Z wv image you can clearly make out the original 2 spiral bands she started with...that structure has stayed with the hurricane its entire life (yes I have a theory about the pieces of identity that hurricanes carry with them).


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:46 PM
Re: And the beat goes on dum dum dum..Super Storm NorEaster forming...

Quote:

Accuweather has been predicting this for the past week, but I wanted to wait for my NWS folks to confirm anything before I started to take notice.

As soon as I saw this..

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=bgm&wwa=winter%20storm%20watch

I knew the established meteorolgists were now on board.

Here is the scenario according to Accuweather...

http://wwwa.accuweather.com/news-weather-headlines.asp

To further track the storm I'm going with the following page...

http://wxrisk.com/meteopage.html

A couple more links of interest...

http://www.foxphiladelphia.com/weather/

http://www.almanac.com/forum/list.php?9




Yes...the possibilities abound.... the models have been flip-flopping with the successful marriage of the two systems near the Mid-Atlantic for days (over a week at this point) and HankFrank and I have been hammering this out in our discussions off and on during the course. Accuweather does a good job - I've just notice they have a tempo shift to 'chance taking' as of late. Not sure what the deal with that is, but they certainly do make some bold assertions/predictions recently - and quite honestly, it has paid off concerning Katrina and Rita...

Anyway, there's nothing really new about this - though it is nice to see some else on her finally bringing it up - THANKS. Anyway, right now the models (especially the GFS) actually whip Wilma into the graveyard as a distinguishable dying entity, while steadily deepening the extra-trapical Nor'easter... In other words, not really phasing the two vorticity fields as effectively as say ....the Perfect Storm did... Let's face it; that's essentially what is going on here, which the Perfect Storm scenario serves as more than a loose analogy for..

I'm currently glued to the atmospheric behavior on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/nwatl-ir4-loop.html (as I just mentioned in another post) because the contruct is certainly there; one that hints that the global based models may be having difficulty resolving the union between a pure barotropic and a pure baroclinic system - should that be the case, and are thus opting to do what it is they are doing.. I've been hearing a lot of information from offices that sounds like "...Wilma will transition into ...this or that"; but the strictest interpretation of the 12z guidance is not really like that... They really squirt her and her remains out ahead of the extra-trapical baroclinicity - too far gone to be really suggestive that the Nor'easter in question is really Wilma incarnate..

Yeah yeah...it's complex.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:49 PM
Re: New warning?

I don't mean to give NHC any grief about it... trying to estimate the maximum sustained wind in a hurricane is an inexact science as it is and there were no planes in the storm during the time it was over land. Any cat 3 winds over the peninsula likely would have occurred in unpopulated areas of the Everglades. I don't think it is any stronger now than it was when it emerged into the Atlantic. It will be interesting to see how long it lasts as a tropical cyclone... the eye is ragged, but the convective pattern still does not show signs of being excessively sheared. It is interesting that the deepest convection has consistently been on the south and west sides of the system since last evening... you might expect the opposite considering that the storm is getting sheared from that direction.

Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:57 PM
Re: New warning?

Not surprising; I thought the pattern would remain asymmetrical this long.

Sorry I can't post an explanation now because I'm at work (and probably should just simply not be reading this if I can't resist posting!), but I'll pm you tonight.


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 02:58 PM
Re: New warning?

Quote:

I don't mean to give NHC any grief about it... trying to estimate the maximum sustained wind in a hurricane is an inexact science as it is and there were no planes in the storm during the time it was over land. Any cat 3 winds over the peninsula likely would have occurred in unpopulated areas of the Everglades. I don't think it is any stronger now than it was when it emerged into the Atlantic. It will be interesting to see how long it lasts as a tropical cyclone... the eye is ragged, but the convective pattern still does not show signs of being excessively sheared. It is interesting that the deepest convection has consistently been on the south and west sides of the system since last evening... you might expect the opposite considering that the storm is getting sheared from that direction.




right - and par for the course...it was moving so fast anyway - across in what 2.2 hours or something... - that it couldn't have weakened all that much...


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:05 PM
Tale of two seasons...

http://www.intellicast.com ....and click on radar...
...It really is neat to see snow in SE west va and a hurricane right off the se u.s. coast!


laureg
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:09 PM
Re: New warning?

Wow, what a wild ride, we have no power but we've got a generator and dialup so here i am...it is so cold here now, must be 56? Hard to tell since being in FL anything below 70 feels like a blizzard. People really did not prepare enough for this one--when are we gonna learn? maybe 50 percent of my neighbors put up shutters. downtown WPB is a mess. Gusts had to have been about 90 for us at times...

Lsr1166
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:10 PM
Re: conditions

I work for Florida DOT in Tallahassee and below are some excerpts from the damage report we just got. Sorry if it is too long.


Naples Municipal (APF) - Substantial structural damage
Southwest Florida International (RSW) - Substantial structural damage
Miami International (MIA) - Some damage and loss of power

The below is reagrding the Turnpike...

Tractor Trailer rollover MP 13 SB. Left lane open. FHP notified TMC. Contacted Open Roads Recovery to respond under emergency contract. Open Road Recovery is enroute to scene.

Tractor Trailer rollover at the SB entrance ramp to the Fort Pierce/Port St. Lucie service plaza. Traffic is able to drive around crash and enter service plaza.

Fort Pierce service station significantly damaged, out of service.

Multiple reports of light poles down near the Fort Pierce interchange.

450 MHz radio system (Wrecker, Road Ranger radio) not operational. This is hindering efforts between FHP, Road Rangers and TMC.

Pompano service station reporting two tractor trailers blown over within Pompano Service Plaza parking lot. One minor injury, fuel leaking from one tractor. FHP has been made aware, but not able to respond due to weather conditions.

Snapper Creek service station has turned off pumps due to debris and portable VMS board being blown towards pump islands.

Lift station at milepost 71 and Sawgrass automated report - no electricity.

Lift station at milepost 65 automated report - no electricity.

Sunshine Skyway Bridge was closed to vehicles between 10 a.m. and 11 a.m., now reopened.

West Palm Beach Restaurant closed due to significant roof damage.

Snapper Creek, Pompano and West Palm Beach service stations closed to business until post-storm.

Pompano service plaza stopping restaurant service until post-storm.


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:16 PM
Re: New warning?

Quote:

Wow, what a wild ride, we have no power but we've got a generator and dialup so here i am...it is so cold here now, must be 56? Hard to tell since being in FL anything below 70 feels like a blizzard. People really did not prepare enough for this one--when are we gonna learn? maybe 50 percent of my neighbors put up shutters. downtown WPB is a mess. Gusts had to have been about 90 for us at times...




Congrats! You made it in one piece... Things will definitely be calming down very quickly in the next couple of hours as her outer most circulation edge is moving NE at fantastic speeds...

Some in your area said that the wind calmed down a little, but then curiously got strong again when the sun came out... This is expected... The sun heated the surface a little and caused and expansion of the mixing layer, which mixed the momentum of the gradient level down... If this happened in your area, it won't last much longer because even the gradient level winds are fast decreasing in velocity as Wilma screams away...


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:20 PM
Re: New warning?

You may find this interesting because the recent "apparent" intensity gaining has NHC scratching their heads exactly the way you and I just were! ....I guess no one knows...

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY FOR WILMA. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WSR-88D
RADAR DATA...AND FLIGHT LEVEL DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT...INDICATE WINDS AT 850 MB OF ABOUT 120-125 KT IN
THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL. SINCE THESE WINDS HAVE PERSISTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...IT IS PROBABLY SAFE TO NOW
ASSUME THESE WINDS CORRESPOND TO ABOUT 100 KT AT THE OCEAN SURFACE.
IT IS NOT YET CLEAR IF THIS RESTRENGTHENING WAS SIMPLY DUE TO
REDUCTION OF FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ONCE THE EYEWALL EMERGED OVER
WATER...OR IF THE WINDS IN THE EYEWALL STRENGTHENED SOME TIME AFTER
REACHING THE ATLANTIC...PERHAPS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE GULF
STREAM. BOTH FACTORS LIKELY PLAYED A ROLE. THE INTENSITY
FORECASTS VALID AT 12 AND 24 HOURS HAVE BEEN INCREASED A LITTLE.
NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK OR RADII FORECASTS HAVE BEEN MADE.


willw
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:24 PM
Re: New warning?

weather is so odd

Hurricane comes through at 6am in the morning


3pm in the afternoon it's sunny and cool 60's w/low humidity.... we all know how crappy florida is when it's hot.. But when it's like this, this is what we all cherish perfect weather.


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:31 PM
Re: New warning?

Quote:

weather is so odd

Hurricane comes through at 6am in the morning


3pm in the afternoon it's sunny and cool 60's w/low humidity.... we all know how crappy florida is when it's hot.. But when it's like this, this is what we all cherish perfect weather.




yeah - i wrote a post on this thread a while back, elucidating the rapid clearing and establishment of fair weather regime in Wilma's wake... I picked 3pm but I think i'm eating a little crow on the far eastern shores as some of the back-side cirrus shield and perhaps even some gusty wind may linger 'till 4... But even there, i suspect by 5 at the latest, all areas of the Peninsula should have a marvelously pleasant evening... Amazing!


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:33 PM
Re: New warning?

Wilma won't quit... the pressure is down a little more to 954mb, though the eye seems to be degrading.

pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:36 PM
Re: New warning?

This is a very strong cold front for FL for Oct. We had no effects from Wima in the panhandle but last night we had wind gusts of over 40 mph with nthe passage of the front, and temps in the 40's this AM...I actually had more stuff blow away last night than in Tropical Storm Arlene....I just hope this is the last time we talk about hurricanes and FL this year!

StPeteBill
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:37 PM
Re: New warning?

Quote:

Quote:

weather is so odd

Hurricane comes through at 6am in the morning


3pm in the afternoon it's sunny and cool 60's w/low humidity.... we all know how crappy florida is when it's hot.. But when it's like this, this is what we all cherish perfect weather.




yeah - i wrote a post on this thread a while back, elucidating the rapid clearing and establishment of fair weather regime in Wilma's wake... I picked 3pm but I think i'm eating a little crow on the far eastern shores as some of the back-side cirrus shield and perhaps even some gusty wind may linger 'till 4... But even there, i suspect by 5 at the latest, all areas of the Peninsula should have a marvelously pleasant evening... Amazing!




Here in St Petersburg the winds are stonger now than they were earlier today when we got all the rain. Currently:

72°F
(22°C)
Humidity: 53 %
Wind Speed: NW 24 G 36 MPH
Barometer: 29.56" (1000.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 54°F (12°C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

We are now having poweroutaged due to falling trees, got me a day off work. Otherwise it would be a beautiful fall like day if it weren't for this darn wind.


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:45 PM
Re: New warning?

Quote:

This is a very strong cold front for FL for Oct. We had no effects from Wima in the panhandle but last night we had wind gusts of over 40 mph with nthe passage of the front, and temps in the 40's this AM...I actually had more stuff blow away last night than in Tropical Storm Arlene....I just hope this is the last time we talk about hurricanes and FL this year!




well...climatologically we're losing frequency very quickly... "October all -over" is a phrase that originated out of the earlier 20th Century active phase but frankly, that seems a little risky.

anyway... some of the middle range models do teleconnect to troughing at very deep latitudes in the Caribbean, which given any impetus there will be sufficient oceanic heat content - but there is nothing immenent to develop at this time.

still...it wouldn't surprise me if we have another systme to follow at some point.


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:48 PM
Re: New warning?

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

weather is so odd

Hurricane comes through at 6am in the morning


3pm in the afternoon it's sunny and cool 60's w/low humidity.... we all know how crappy florida is when it's hot.. But when it's like this, this is what we all cherish perfect weather.




yeah - i wrote a post on this thread a while back, elucidating the rapid clearing and establishment of fair weather regime in Wilma's wake... I picked 3pm but I think i'm eating a little crow on the far eastern shores as some of the back-side cirrus shield and perhaps even some gusty wind may linger 'till 4... But even there, i suspect by 5 at the latest, all areas of the Peninsula should have a marvelously pleasant evening... Amazing!




Here in St Petersburg the winds are stonger now than they were earlier today when we got all the rain. Currently:

72°F
(22°C)
Humidity: 53 %
Wind Speed: NW 24 G 36 MPH
Barometer: 29.56" (1000.9 mb)
Dewpoint: 54°F (12°C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.

We are now having poweroutaged due to falling trees, got me a day off work. Otherwise it would be a beautiful fall like day if it weren't for this darn wind.




yep - and you'll be losing that wind to a growing memory of this event fairly shortly... Wilma's just moving to fast away for even her girthy circulation field... She can't hold onto you guys forever - heck, she'll 300+ naut miles NE of Melbourne by 7pm!


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 03:54 PM
Re: New warning?

It looks like there could be a heavy rain event in New England (where they REALLY don't need one) after all, even if the contribution from Wilma is only marginal. A strong coastal low is going to develop anyway and at the very least will likely leach some tropical moisture off of Wilma, in addition to pulling in plenty of Atlantic moisture. The Boston NWS office has issued a true watch/warning buffet:

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024 FROM 4 AM
TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY.
...FLOOD WATCH FOR MAZ004>007-012>022-026 FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 10
PM TUESDAY.
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024 FROM 2 PM
TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY.
...WIND ADVISORY FOR MAZ004>006-012>014-017-018-020-021-026 FROM
4 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY.
NH...WIND ADVISORY FOR NHZ012-015 FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY.
RI...FLOOD WATCH FOR RIZ001>007 FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 10 PM TUESDAY.
...WIND ADVISORY FOR RIZ001>007 FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY.
...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR RIZ008 FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ230-236 FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 10 PM
TUESDAY.
...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254-255 FROM 2 AM
TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY.


laureg
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:06 PM
Re: New warning?

I was just gonna mention that the weather guys are saying this is headed toward SC and on up to New York down the road...but the radar shows it sort of staying clear of the east coast until way north...

Kept watching that radar on TV in the middle of the storm and waiting for that eye to come at least a little bit over us...but it never really did.

First thing I said after was, well, that's it. Here's to next year. I have to rethink all my hurricane theories as this year blew most of them out of the water (no pun intended). I don't want to hear about El Nino for awhile...

Heard there are no stoplights working from Boca to West Palm...


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:08 PM
Re: New warning?

Quote:

It looks like there could be a heavy rain event in New England (where they REALLY don't need one) after all, even if the contribution from Wilma is only marginal. A strong coastal low is going to develop anyway and at the very least will likely leach some tropical moisture off of Wilma, in addition to pulling in plenty of Atlantic moisture. The Boston NWS office has issued a true watch/warning buffet:

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024 FROM 4 AM
TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY.
...FLOOD WATCH FOR MAZ004>007-012>022-026 FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 10
PM TUESDAY.
...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024 FROM 2 PM
TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY.
...WIND ADVISORY FOR MAZ004>006-012>014-017-018-020-021-026 FROM
4 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY.
NH...WIND ADVISORY FOR NHZ012-015 FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 8 PM TUESDAY.
RI...FLOOD WATCH FOR RIZ001>007 FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 10 PM TUESDAY.
...WIND ADVISORY FOR RIZ001>007 FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY.
...HIGH WIND WARNING FOR RIZ008 FROM 4 AM TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FOR ANZ230-236 FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 10 PM
TUESDAY.
...STORM WARNING FOR ANZ231>235-237-250-254-255 FROM 2 AM
TUESDAY TO 6 PM TUESDAY.




yeah - I'm about 20 miles W of Boston and I've been following all this... concur!


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:29 PM
Re: New warning?

Recon recently found 132 kt flight-level winds (at 850mb, I believe) in the SW quadrant of Wilma. That's an odd place to find the maximum winds in a system that is moving NE at around 30 mph, but Wilma has never been a typical hurricane.

Rdietch
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:44 PM
Re: New warning?

My hat goes off the the NHC they had it peged and with all the difference people and stations trying to 1 up them it did not happen hate off to them.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:49 PM
Re: New warning?

A C-MAN station on the western tip of Grand Bahama island reported sustained winds up to 82 knots as Wilma went by, with gusts to 99 knots. The max winds were just bumped up to 105 knots (120 mph) on the 5pm advisory.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:51 PM
Re: New warning?

a little stronger... she just wouldn't die!

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...29.0 N... 77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 37 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.


typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:55 PM
Re: New warning?

Quote:

a little stronger... she just wouldn't die!

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...29.0 N... 77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 37 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.




that's unusual...to have even modest strengthening while moving at 37mph of translational velocity!


MadDog
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:56 PM
Re: Melbourne

Margie said this a.m.
Quote:

Five weeks remain in the hurricane season. It is not unlikely we'll see a Beta (just hope they don't jump the gun like they did with Alpha).
Quote:



Is this the concensus?

( (I tried to post this to the Alpha discussion forum, but obviously it didn't go where I wanted it to)

bn765
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:56 PM
Re: New warning?

This is bad news for the east coast.....for the northeast they are already calling this the "superstorm" of 2005 which is supposed to hit the whole northeast tommorrow.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 04:57 PM
Re: New warning?

Quote:

Quote:

a little stronger... she just wouldn't die!

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...29.0 N... 77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 37 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.




that's unusual...to have even modest strengthening while moving at 37mph of translational velocity!




The shocking thing is that there is still some anticyclonic outflow on the backside of the system as it is getting pushed along at a high rate of speed.


blizzardnut
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:00 PM
Re: New warning?

So... 40 ft seas forecast S and E of Nantucket, 1-5" of rain in E Mass, and 7"+ of snow forecast only 100 miles northwest of there. What a monsta!! Not a great day to go fishin'. It's almost leaf-raking time, but I'm not much into tree-raking. BTW, the mets here are predicting a "gravity wave" tomorow morning to enhance the rain along the south coast in association with all the transferred energy from Wilma (I think)... anyone care to educate me on what that is?
Also,
Quote:

This is bad news for the east coast.....for the northeast they are already calling this the "superstorm" of 2005 which is supposed to hit the whole northeast tommorrow.




Well, not to be too cynical, but this year we've already had two or three "superstorm of 2005"s...even here with no tropical systems... rough weather seems to be fairly common around here these days...but yeah, be careful everyone.


damejune2
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:02 PM
Re: Melbourne

I'd like to know the chances of us having to deal with another hurricane this year. The mets on the local station i watch said with the cooler temps, air and water, it would be difficult for anything to develop in this area or come at us from another area. Don't know how accurate that information is, but thats what they said.

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:05 PM
Re: New warning?

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

a little stronger... she just wouldn't die!

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...29.0 N... 77.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 37 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...120 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.




that's unusual...to have even modest strengthening while moving at 37mph of translational velocity!




The shocking thing is that there is still some anticyclonic outflow on the backside of the system as it is getting pushed along at a high rate of speed.




It's a little diconcerting to see some of those near shore rad returns indicating the precipitation shield moving NNW, off the Atlantic Ocean up here; which is all underscored by having a -3.5SD negative anomaly rotating around eastern Ohio, while a hurricane is dubously situated in a narrow window of escape capability with respect to the intensifying baroclinic field along and just off shore... Man, if your just tuning in now your thinking this is the mother of all set-ups... BUT, the models insist, they will by in large remain to cohesive circulation entities as Wilma rockets by just off SE New England, while extra-tropical low just barely can't quite get the muscle to slow it down and hook NW into the mother of all phases?

Models can be wrong and am almost wondering if this will be a now-cast event for New England... This is just came out of NWS Taunton and you may find it quite interesting:
M1 437 PM: INTERNALLY SOME OF OUR FOLKS HAVE DETECTED A MODELED
GRAVITY WAVE PASSAGE IN THE SUSBMM5 PROGGED MOVING ENE ALOGN THE
SNE COAST 09Z-15Z TUE. IF THIS IS REAL...ITS GOING TO BE A A MODEL
COUP. ITS IN THE 4KM SUYSBMM5 SFC PRES AND 10 M WIND FIELD.

Time will tell...but either way, this going to be a heck of an indirect attack by this thing up here...


bn765
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:10 PM
Re: New warning?

With the way some of the mets are explaining this storm people are not takin this storm in the northeast seriously enough....

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:13 PM
Re: New warning?

Quote:

So... 40 ft seas forecast S and E of Nantucket, 1-5" of rain in E Mass, and 7"+ of snow forecast only 100 miles northwest of there. What a monsta!! Not a great day to go fishin'. It's almost leaf-raking time, but I'm not much into tree-raking. BTW, the mets here are predicting a "gravity wave" tomorow morning to enhance the rain along the south coast in association with all the transferred energy from Wilma (I think)... anyone care to educate me on what that is?
Also,
Quote:

This is bad news for the east coast.....for the northeast they are already calling this the "superstorm" of 2005 which is supposed to hit the whole northeast tommorrow.




Well, not to be too cynical, but this year we've already had two or three "superstorm of 2005"s...even here with no tropical systems... rough weather seems to be fairly common around here these days...but yeah, be careful everyone.




I know your post is to someone else originally but this usage of the term "Superstorm", it's like using "love" to liberally if you ask me: It gets warn out and demeaning with abuse. I think they should really reserve such powerful terminology until such times as the actual impact can be defined as being a ...certain level above merely being a big storm.

To me, "1978 Cleveland Bomb", "The Blizzard of 1978", or "Superstorm 1993", these are all vastly more appropriate for that term because they carried statistical results that far surpass anything before or since... Maybe there needs to be an official declaration of parameters for the usage of that term because Superstorm has a way of fostering unnecessary panic; and quite frankly, I'm sensing it is used to garner viewer-ship in a era controled by the corporate media meets natural disaster popularity.

What should take place along the NE U.S. Coastline tomorrow will likely be ferocious, no doubt! But comparable to other major events in the passed - unlikely.

Oh, and I apologies if it sounds like the tone of my posts are wavering...They're really not. We can have a stemwinder storm up here tomorrow and it doesn't have to be a "Super" this or that - that's my point. Which, for the record, also is NOT intended to presuppose the the possibility that it could actually end up a Superstorm, but if it did, we'd really know about it!


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:18 PM
Alpha

Alpha seems to be making a last gasp, with some slightly improving convection near the center and a single weak convective band feeding into the system. They haven't issued any new advisories for it, so I assume its status as a tropical cyclone is officially over with.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:21 PM
Re: New warning?

There will definitely be an intense coastal storm, though it appears that it will only be marginally aided by any effect from Wilma, which is expected to pass well offshore. While it could exacerbate flooding problems in New England, it doesn't figure to be a historically significant coastal storm unless Wilma becomes much more involved than expected.

BabyCat
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:23 PM
Broward

Any damage reports of the main library, downtown Ft. Laud? It's all glass and it leaked already.
Damage reports are really slow, even on AP.


MissBecky
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 05:41 PM
Re: Broward

Hi everyone. I just wanted to say that I made it through the storm okay, with minimal damage (missing shingles, tree limbs down.) When the first eyewall came on shore, things picked up, but when the back eyewall came on, all h*ll broke loose. The winds gusted to incredible strength. I could hear things hitting my hurricane shutters, and I was very freaked out by it all. I lost my power around 9:00 this morning, and am pleasantly surprised to have it back on so early.

Thank you again to everyone on this site for all your hard work and for keeping us all informed.


k___g
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:07 PM
Re: Broward

Here in Orlando, we went from "full" tropical to "full" fall in less than eight hours...what a great day!!!...see ya'll next season???...<hoping>

abyrd
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:19 PM
Bouy reports

wave heights got up to 37 feet 120 miles east of port canaveral. 20 miles out got up to 20 feet.

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 06:25 PM
Re: New warning?

Quote:

With the way some of the mets are explaining this storm people are not takin this storm in the northeast seriously enough....




...What you got here is a Nor'easter that "might" avail of some extra latent heat injection by transitting tropical event... Taking a look at the 18z GFS, the voriticity fields are completely conserved and disparate features... In fact, 24-36 hours from now, a remnant vort max (the remains of Wilma) is moving E about 200naut mi SE of Nova Scotia at about 50mph! Meanwhile, the cut-off U/A low and associated coastal cyclogenisis (tomorrow's New England Nor'easter) is doing it's thing, blithely unaware that Wilma was ever an interloper in it's backyard. In other words, any interaction between these two features is indirect at very deepest...

Sad part is...there's enough seeds planted in the minds of the public that there will undoubtedly be people who log this in their memories as a "Nor'easter mixed with a hurricane" - uuugh!

Fact of the matter is, we get 55kt wind gust whenever we have a 1034mb high park N of Maine while a 30vort max rides NE up the coast.

As a fan of all dramatic weather and fascinated with blizzards, I just hope this upcoming winter doesn't poop out and not do anything like this when there's finally enough cold air around to bring the current VT predictions for a foot of snow down to the coast... Just imagine 50kt wind gusts in snow falling at the rate of 3" an hour... ? Amazing stuff!


Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 07:01 PM
Re: Wilma Nearing Florida Exit as a Category 2 Over West Palm Beach

Thanks for the information.
So many family and friends affected by the hurricanes this year.
I hope everyone gets power soon but at least heat isn't a factor. After Rita the temperature was around 100 for days (heat index
up to 120). So at least it is cooler there.


damejune2
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 07:03 PM
Re: New warning?

Typhoon - I have a Grandad in Connecticut, Hartford area to be exact. They got lashed with a bunch of rain from that low that parked itself off the Jersey/Long Island coast a week ago or more. That alone drenched the whole area and they had some serious flooding, including a river right near his house. I saw a map with a low pressure area off the coast again, except a little closer to the CT coast. What impact, if any, will Wilma or the former Wilma have on his area? I am a bit worried about him. Thanks and thanks for the good information you provided before, during and after Wilma.

typhoon_tip
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 07:17 PM
Re: New warning?

Quote:

Typhoon - I have a Grandad in Connecticut, Hartford area to be exact. They got lashed with a bunch of rain from that low that parked itself off the Jersey/Long Island coast a week ago or more. That alone drenched the whole area and they had some serious flooding, including a river right near his house. I saw a map with a low pressure area off the coast again, except a little closer to the CT coast. What impact, if any, will Wilma or the former Wilma have on his area? I am a bit worried about him. Thanks and thanks for the good information you provided before, during and after Wilma.




Hi...Flooding is a very real concern and will be the main headline affect from this particular event. If he lives in a prone area he needs to be alert and pay attention to the local hydrology statements from the National Weather Service. Currently, a flood watch is in effect for most of the state of CT, save the immediate shore communities. The affects of early snows and strong winds on the coastal plain probably won't be as impactive to him locally, but the flood concern is quite large after the anomalous event earlier this month.
The following NWS office has very good, updated immediately when conditions warranted hydrological information:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/box/
Find any number of valuable flood information links on the left hand side.
...Needless to say, flood guidance is quite low right now and should this event max out, many areas that experienced flooding in the middle part of this month will likely experience renewed concerns. One cannot speculate on one creek or main stem river will overflow its banks, but, the CT River does tend to claim near bank realistate at the drop of a hat in these situations... You'll just have to study the information on the URL I provided you. In Flash Floods, the one's that survive have an escape plan that includes higher ground already laid out.


Mako
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 07:26 PM
Re: New warning?

Possible modeling of a gravity wave on south new england coast. Anyone have any comment. This would be a rare event.

http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2005102412/images_d3/slp.24.0000.gif


Nutmeg
(Registered User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 07:46 PM
Re: New warning?

Quote:

With the way some of the mets are explaining this storm people are not takin this storm in the northeast seriously enough....



I hope "some mets" are only a minority. I just drove home from work listening to a lengthy and appropriately cautionary radio met out of NYC. And one of my colleagues up in MA has been quite attentive since early this morning...and so on.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 07:58 PM
Re: New warning?

Gravity waves are not necessarily rare events, but a successful prediction of one by a numerical model would be news.

DougBaker
(Verified CFHC User)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:00 PM
Re: New warning?

Ok, I have some background in physics.

I have never seen this term in the context of weather, "gravity wave"
Can anyone give me a reference or link?


Convergence
(Weather Watcher)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:02 PM
Re: Bouy reports

723
URNT12 KNHC 242341
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 24/23:30:00Z
B. 30 deg 00 min N
076 deg 15 min W
C. 850 mb 1064 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 087 deg 065 kt
G. 360 deg 015 nm
H. 959 mb
I. 15 C/ 1531 m
J. 20 C/ 1519 m
K. 20 C/ NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C65
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 2724A WILMA OB 29
MAX FL WIND 136 KT S QUAD 20:01:40 Z
WIND CENTER IMBEDDED ALONG NORTH WALL


Wxwatcher2
(Storm Tracker)
Mon Oct 24 2005 08:18 PM
Re: New warning?

Quote:

With the way some of the mets are explaining this storm people are not takin this storm in the northeast seriously enough....




Sounds like the same complaint they have in the Southeast as well.
It's human nature. I do think Wilma will stay well off your shores.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 09:18 PM
Re: Bouy reports

Wilma is such a clever girl...with a big bag of tricks. She knows how to deal with high wind shear -- outrun it, and let it enhance your outflow! And since leaving the east coast of FL, she's developed a huge feeder band pulling warm moist air from the Gulf Stream. That, with her "good bones" -- a solid core structure -- has enabled her to do what was not forecast: to continue to intensify back to Cat 3 and maintain it right up until this evening. She deserves her own video on VH1 (put to "Staying Alive" by the BeeGees), or a movie of her own ("The Storm That Wouldn't Shrivel Up and Die!").

I kind of did a double take upon getting home about a half hour ago and then looking at the sat images (why'd they move the floater so quickly?). Then had to go read the NHC advis/disc to truly believe it.

But in the last hour or so, dry air has finally gotten into part of the core, and so begins Wilma's transformation...which will take some time, as she still had a 5-deg temp diff at the last recon! We'll see warm-hearted Wilma for just a little while longer.

* * * * * * *

OK -- I spoke too soon -- she's rushing to rebuild the convection in the eyewall and keep out that drafty air. She's done that so many times she's become a real expert at it. So until she runs out of warm water to draw from, I guess she'll maintain her warm inner core. Next card she's decided to play: shrink the size of the eye.

How far north can the Gulf Stream feed and maintain a warm-core tropical cyclone, other conditions being favorable?

---------------------
2005 -- Season of Broken Records (SOBR...because it's hard to believe, when you are)


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Mon Oct 24 2005 09:19 PM
Gravity Wave

http://amsglossary.allenpress.com/glossary/search?id=gravity-wave1

http://www.auf.asn.au/meteorology/section7.html


Genesis
(Weather Guru)
Mon Oct 24 2005 10:24 PM
Re: Gravity Wave

Thing is, while the NE is going to get a Nor'Easter, it doesn't appear that it will be the monster hybrid/baroclinic thing that it could have been.

My concern a couple of days ago was the possibility that Wilma would get picked up earlier and the tilt on the trough would have been greater. In that case, a direct impact of the circulation moving northward along the trough somewhere from LI to Maine could have occurred. The GFDL kept insisting on this, and the setup looked good for it.

By late yesterday it became clear that the trough had outrun this possibility, and that set up the almost straight E-W trough axis that prevented a more northward track for Wilma over Florida.

The axis Wilma is riding up is well offshore, and odds are that she won't even hit the maritimes. This is a good thing, because had that axis been further westward this would have hit like a solid Cat 5 storm in terms of windfield on the east side, when you consider the winds themselves and then forward speed. That sort of hit in the NE was almost completely unexpected, and it would have come with very little warning.

Thank God it looks like its not going to happen. I remain SLIGHTLY concerned as the WV imagery still shows the northern outflow jet over land and a nearly-straight-north path to it. The GFDL's latest run doesn't appear to pick up the surface feature that my most-recently-available surface map shows correctly, which is a bit troublesome..... the GFDL takes Wilma cleanly offshore, but that's predicated on structures that it progged for now (from when it was run) that aren't reflected in the "nowcast" surface map.

I would say that prudence is advised in the NE, as they're getting and will continue to get a hell of a rain and wind event anyway. If nothing else Wilma will contribute plenty of moisture to a VERY cold environment at the boundary, which adds up to a LOT of precip in an area that can't afford it right now.

This is one time I'm going to be pleased if I have two "busts" in terms of what looked, to me, to be developing, because they're both interrelated, and while the NE is getting soaked and is in for plenty more of it, if 130kt winds and a 30+kt forward speed had been added to that, with the east side of that circ coming onshore up there, it would have been catastrophic.

I've got reports from some friends with marine interests in the Miami area. They got hammered but are ok; the damage was heavy but not catastrophic.


Margie
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:19 PM
Re: Gravity Wave

I just took a quick look at the sat images before going to bed (at a reasonable hour for once), and, um, has anyone looked lately? With no imminent landfall, perhaps this is just academic, but is there any chance Wilma can make it up to Cat 4? Because the eyewall is looking very good, and she has been known to shrink her eyewall on occasion for dramatic effect.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:47 PM
Re: Gravity Wave

Wilma still hanging in there, I see. It's bizarre to see a cat 3 hurricane with a forward speed of 47 mph. It still doesn't seem to be affected by that much shear, based on the outflow pattern. It might be even stronger if not for the cool air that it has likely been ingesting into the circulation. Water temps will get progressively cooler in its path, but I think that around 40N is when it hits the really cold water and the laws of physics will finally put an end to its days as a tropical cyclone.

The vort max formally known as Alpha still has a small ball of relatively deep convection in its vicinity (NE of Wilma) and a skeletal feeder band, but between the circulation of Wilma and its own forward speed, it has almost no chance to maintain any sort of northerly wind on its west side to close off a surface circulation. There are probably some tropical storm force winds in its vicinity, though.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Mon Oct 24 2005 11:56 PM
Re: Gravity Wave

I don't think cat 4 would be out of the question... with its forward speed still increasing, it would not take much improvement in the storm itself to bring max winds near cat 4 intensity. I don't know if they plan to have another plane into it or not, though, and that would probably be a tough call based on satellite presentation alone.
their calling it a 3 with FL winds peaking at 136kt is a little inconsistent with the storm being a 3 earlier with the normal reduction suggesting a 2. i guess they think it isn't mixing to the surface for whatever reason. not my area of expertise. -HF


HanKFranK
(User)
Tue Oct 25 2005 12:11 AM
Re: Gravity Wave

we'll end up seeing some bad weather in new england, but by itself it's probably going to be nothing they don't usually deal with in autumn storms. it's all context.. serious bad news on top of the heavy rain they've had this month. as far as that phasing hyper-bomb tip and i were concerned about.. well, like he's been saying all day, deep 500mb anomaly and negative NAO or not, the storm didn't phase.. it's just running ne along the periphery of the ridge. wilma was just too tropical. some of the intensification it's done today has been partially baroclinic in nature, but in spite of that the storm has remained clearly warm core. the nhc forecast transition looks right though.. when it goes it will go fast. alpha has zipped up ahead of it... and is a tropical storm if it still has a closed circulation in that little envelope it exists in, but has been operationally declassified, so no matter. the coastal storm should move slowly enough to drop decent rains across the northeast... stuff on the order of the rain events earlier this month. reasonable to assume that there will be widespread, moderate flooding across the region tomorrow and wednesday.
anyhow, final prog on my wilma track will be that i got the governing teleconnection patterns wrong... to a degree. the strongly positive SOI has favored zonal ridging in the tropics, and that is probably a large contributor to the non-phasing. as a result the track was more longitudinally jagged than i'd guessed.. was thinking a sweeping recurvature, rather than the jab at the yucatan and the ungraceful lurch northeast. really good news, though... had SOI flipped the storm would probably be bashing the outer banks right now, headed for long island or some place that is much better off with things the way they are.
didn't expect a legit landfall on the yucatan a day or two earlier than it happened, and had the port charlotte-fort myers area pegged from 4-5 days earlier.. hurricane went 50-80 miles south of there at marco. chose not to move it since i'm hardheaded. had the nhc beat on intensity, was the only plus. timing was a day or so off from earlier... function of the yucatan camping event on friday-saturday. overall about like i usually do... not as good as the nhc, but not too bad either.
anyhow there's a general sentement floating around that the hurricane season is over now that wilma has lifted out... that may be true but i'm a doubter. pattern and indications on the ensembles are that new trouble areas will emerge in the caribbean by the weekend. personally i don't see that the basin has acquired that look of oppressive shear... and the ssts are still warmer than normal in much of the deep tropics. globals fuzzy on the caribbean stuff still (west carib feature comes and goes... mixed support for the east carib feature), so nothing definite.. but i've got a hunch we'll see beta before october is out.
november could easily feature a system too. there are even odds in any given year, and this is no given year.
HF 0411z25october
later comment: looked at some of the 00z guidance. what i'm seeing is more consistent than earlier with low pressure forming north of panama later this week across the models.. i.e. gfs nogaps, earlier euro runs seeing basically the same thing. the disturbance would be in a weak current zone between upper ridges to the east and west, with the large trough in the eastern u.s. to the north. modeling keeps the low fairly weak and stable east of nicaragua through this week. note that if a legit system forms there it will be in a good synoptic environment. not much convection there right now, so it isn't something that will exist in the next day or two. -HF


Lisa NC
(Weather Guru)
Tue Oct 25 2005 12:25 AM
Re: Gravity Wave

I was just watching the sats, wv & ir, a I noticed a slight rotation down in the caribbean. One of the TWC, a hurricane specialist mentioned yesterday about watching this area. It appears to be moving west and wouldn't have to much time before running into land.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html


superfly
(Weather Watcher)
Tue Oct 25 2005 01:43 AM
Re: Gravity Wave

Quote:

I don't think cat 4 would be out of the question... with its forward speed still increasing, it would not take much improvement in the storm itself to bring max winds near cat 4 intensity. I don't know if they plan to have another plane into it or not, though, and that would probably be a tough call based on satellite presentation alone.
their calling it a 3 with FL winds peaking at 136kt is a little inconsistent with the storm being a 3 earlier with the normal reduction suggesting a 2. i guess they think it isn't mixing to the surface for whatever reason. not my area of expertise. -HF



The last mission was flown at 850mb (80% reduction) while all the previous ones were done at 700mb (90%).

136kts FL = 125MPH surface with 80% red.


DougBaker
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Oct 25 2005 04:35 AM
Re: Gravity Wave

Thanks. Now I have a much better understanding.

garrison
(Verified CFHC User)
Tue Oct 25 2005 10:27 AM
Re: Canadian hurricane

Does anyone know if a hurricane has ever made landfall in Canada? ty


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