(Admin)

Wed Oct 26 2005 07:57 PM

Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.

5 AM Update
Furthering the history making 2005 season, Tropical Storm Beta has formed in the SW Caribbean. Beta is moving toward the NW near 5mph. Maximum winds are near 40 mph. Estimated minimum pressure is 1005mb. Beta is currently forecast to become a Hurricane just prior to landfall on the Nicaraguan Coast.

Image courtesy of SkeetobiteWeather.com

12AM Update
90L has been officially declared Tropical Depression 26.
Currently, 11PM Advisory, TD 26 is forecast to become a Tropical Storm (Beta) before reaching the Coast of Nicaragua.

4PM Update
We've got two systems post Wilma we're watching, one in the Southwestern Caribbean (aka 90L) and another east of the Leeward islands. Both have the potential to develop over the next several days. I'd prefer it to be totally quiet, but the tropics aren't cooperating.

The one in the southwest caribbean is likely to drift slowly northwestward over time.

Chances for tropical development of the wave in the Southwest Caribbean (90L) in the next two days:
Code:


forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
          [--------------*--------]

Chances for tropical development of the disturbance East of the Leeward Islands in the next two days:
Code:


forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
          [---*------------------]

Further east is yet another wave, but it is very disorganized at the moment.

Event Related links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Beta

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of Beta - Static Image

91L

* NEW * Skeetobite Animated Model Graphic
South Florida Water Management District Animated model plot of 90L - Static Image

damejune2

(Storm Tracker)

Wed Oct 26 2005 08:44 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

How about the chances of 90 or 91 hitting the US as in Fla or the Gulf Coast? Just curious as to people's thoughts on that.

slim. pattern favors low latitude recurvature for anything that tries to come north. southern florida if anything, but probably not. these puppies have to develop before they can do anything... 90L has made some progress, but 91L is just a wave.

JMII

(Weather Master)

Wed Oct 26 2005 09:13 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

As if it's not obvious, southern FL can't take much rain right now... people have roof damage. There is no power and no gas. I just left the Margate / Coral Springs area and drove up to central FL for awhile to avoid the mess.

Here are some pictures I took during/after Wilma, sorry for crappy web page design but I didn't have much software to work with...

http://home.mindspring.com/~jntmoore/wilma/

Thunderbird12

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 26 2005 09:16 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Chances are slim right now that either of them would affect Florida, based on the uncertainties in their track and development. 90L will have a hard time getting north of Honduras without going inland, so 91L may post the slightly greater chance, though it is not even a tropical cyclone right now and there is no guarantee it ever will be. If it does develop, it looks like it will spend a few days in the Caribbean in a relatively favorable environment.

90L seems to be redeveloping convection near its center right now. It looks awfully close to becoming a depression, though it appears NHC will wait to pull the trigger until at least tonight. A more consolidated ball of convection has developed within 91L, but it is tough to tell if that is associated with any sort of surface center or not.

Thunderbird12

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 26 2005 09:24 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 140 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. IF
THIS DEVELOPING TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED AT
ANY TIME. HOWEVER...EVEN IF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DOES NOT
OCCUR...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS AND SQUALLS TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

SQUALLY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE NO SIGNS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...PUPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA.

rd261

(Registered User)

Wed Oct 26 2005 09:27 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

God this is just crazy. I live in north miami-dade, and the situation here is just crazy. More than a million people dont have electricity, no gas, and traffic lights are out. I just got the electricity back, but the FPL is saying that 50% of the people in Miami-Dade would have power back by November 8. So I guess Im lucky. Anyways I hope none of those waves come to South Florida, because if they do, then it would be a real mess down here.

Thunderbird12

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 26 2005 09:33 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

In the unlikely event that either of these systems affect Florida, it would not be for several days at least.

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 26 2005 09:38 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Quote:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 140 MILES EAST OF THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. IF
THIS DEVELOPING TREND CONTINUES ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED AT
ANY TIME. HOWEVER...EVEN IF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION DOES NOT
OCCUR...THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINS AND SQUALLS TO PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY OVER COSTA RICA...NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES. INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

SQUALLY WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD
OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE NO SIGNS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...PUPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA.

frankly....i've seen them initiate advisories on even more paltry looking features in the past... since none of this was based on recon fixes, one may be thus inclined to question the reality of this situation... my personal belief is that this is a depression now.. it has a closed circulation, obvious banding on sat in several channels, and convective elements near the core - whether cyclical in nature or not. it also has a registerably lower pressure than the surrounding environment - though the favorability for development is not (as far as I know) an official criteria but heck....might as well through it in there that it has very good outflow signatures...

...i dunno...maybe someone just needs more time off...

of course...in their defense they do reserve the right to initiate advisories "..AT ANYTIME"...

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Wed Oct 26 2005 10:15 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

The larger view on sat (the western Carib and the EastPac, instead of the floater) shows how quickly 90L is getting organized, and also shows the bands on the Pacific side.

Convection now firing off very close to the center for several hours now. There appears to be a very small area close to the center with no shear, but right outside of that area, at least 10kts shear. However the shear just south of the center convection, that is towards the south, is where some outflow has been established for awhile (also the outflow off to the east from the large band to the north of the center, has established itself much more than yesterday).

With the current steering pattern this is only going to take a western turn right into Central America. But I'm wondering if it does, if it will redevelop on the Pacific side, where the shear is minimal and the water very warm.

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 26 2005 10:27 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Looks an awful lot like the Bay of Campeche systems that we've seen this year, doesn't it? The actual LLC is just north of the Panamanian coastline and not too far from Nicaragua. Current steering pattern would tend to favor keeping it pretty much where it is, steered only by Beta drift (weak as it may be for such a small, low-latitude storm) and any sort of reorganization due to convective features. A trough off to the west of the storm isn't strong enough to hinder development or allow it to get caught up in the midst of the flow toward the NE -- not yet, at least -- while it is pretty much planted directly underneath a small-scalre upper level ridge. Creates a pretty favorable environment for development but doesn't foretell a lot of movement.

Best call is for a slow drift to the NW over the next couple of days; how strong it is then will play a role in whether or not it continues across central America or remains off-shore and ultimately recurves. As noted yesterday, it's one of those divergent solutions -- either across and toward the Pacific, or up and out to sea likely through Cuba and the Bahamas. Given current organizational trends, it'll probably get classified as our 26th depression tonight or early tomorrow and likely end up as Beta before too long. Biggest hindrance to development is going to be whether or not it gets closer to/moves over land. If so, it'll likely end up like the Bay of Campeche disturbances; if not, it's got a shot at something a little more, a la Stan. One to watch.

Wave near the Lesser Antilles has a shot, but needs to slow down first and become better organized. Largely just a mess of convection right now, but conditions should become a bit more favorable over the next day or two. As HF mentioned in the other thread, it'll likely end up relatively close to 90L/future Beta? at some point, making the ultimate forecast for both just a tad bit trickier. Not a sure bet to develop in the least, but worth watching.

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Wed Oct 26 2005 10:50 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

i dunno... we've been surprised this season (what's new) with track guidance vs. verification.. all signals point to what you say for now, but i see the potenial for a couple of perturbational effects.
1) ...a deeper more powerful system would tend to fight off feeble steering flow - which in the llv's is currently ese to wnw at light speeds, in that area, and is what 90l is susceptible to right now.. however, should "beta" go ahead a deepen and gather a better vertical structure quicklly over the next 24 hours, we're liable to be stuck with a stationary system because the 700 through 500mb mean layer flow is like...5kts across most operational global models for the next few days. even though some of the guidance suggests a short lease on life do to interaction with land, those depictions are dubious to me until the extent of development, and how that intensity profile interacts with the surrounding environment can be cogently ascertained.
2) so...with deeper layer steering in that area currently almost none-existent...it is also unclear how much a couple of troughs subtending the height field in the northern gulf can have on inducing a pull toward the north, given that any beta is at such a deep latitude is so far down there. now through 72 hours a trough in eastern n/a is going to complete a final s/w sweep. the h582 contour is actually sagging all the way down to the norther yuc peninsula; the gradient is weak and so the winds are light along the heights in that area...after that, it seems hard to imagine this thing getting a n pull with any speed.. heights tend to rise then fall gently between 72 and 132 hours (average model concensus)... this would be the best opportunity to drive it w into/over land, but even this signal is not that impressive and really the models show very little affect on the wind field - in other words, almost too weak to push it w.. what the models also agree on is that by 144 hours there is a substantial vort max (for latitude) approaching the nw gulf, and this may be substantial enough to pick up beta if it is still around then.. a track thereafter would favor a lower latitude recurvature, unless that trough is more amplified... frankly, i don't see that happening because some of the indices i like to rely on are actually suggesting we'll lose some amplification in the flow - but even that is uncertain because these things can sometime appear and dissappear in the guidance almost as quickly, sending everyone spinning on a fool's errand.

so yes and no...may just end up too far underneath the westerlies - a.k.a. "mitch"?

danielw

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 27 2005 12:03 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Wow. The evening Meteorological Discussion all on the First Page. Can't beat that Anywhere.

well, i'm sure if we could get some nhc guys around a table discussing things with the gloves off, that would have our heads spinning. but yeah, between clark and tip, and jason and dunham whenever they show, we get the scoop.

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 27 2005 12:24 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Well you guys are the experts, but don't you think it is *too far south* to possibly end up in the ATL? Wouldn't a divergent path to the NE predicate a lot of drifting to a more northern lat first?

It looks like Margie has the winning signature for the 2005 Hurricane Season.~danielw
2005 -- Season of Broken Records (SOBR...because it's hard to believe, when you are)

I didn't think anyone was going to notice it! If you can think of anything better, be my guest, but with Phil OOC and Nov almost here, I thought I better come up with something soon (esp since I'm a lot better with writing than forecasting, so far!...someone just whispered in 90L's ear and told it to move north in response to my comment)

Thunderbird12

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 27 2005 01:11 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

A new SHIPS run just came out for Tropical Depression #26 (90L), so looks like NHC has pulled the trigger, though they probably won't initiate advisories until the usual 11pm ET:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=WBCCHGHUR

Navy site just updated for 26L NONAME. Tropical Depression #26... that just sounds wrong.

danielw

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 27 2005 01:15 AM

Evening TWD Highlights

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005
edited~danielw

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH A 1008 MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR 10N81W NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEARBY
STATIONARY FRONT. PRESSURES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL IN THE AREA AND SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE CURVED BANDS ARE BECOMING BETTER-DEFINED... ALL HALLMARKS OF DEVELOPMENT.
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 36 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD DRIFT NW WITH LIGHT STEERING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 80W-82W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
FURTHER N FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 78W-82W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

E-CENTRAL ATLC WAVE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W S OF 15N WITH A 1008 MB LOW ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N...MOVING W 10-15 KT.
SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE A LOW HAS FORMED ON THE WAVE BUT VERY STRONG WLY SHEAR SHOULD SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHEAR IS ALSO ALLOWING PLENTY OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION TO FORM NEAR THE WAVE...FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 34W-38W.

W ATLC WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A 1008 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER
THE LOW IS CLOSED AT THE SURFACE BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL ROTATION WITH A PRESSURE MINIMUM AS
REPORTED BY A NEARBY BUOY. UPPER WINDS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AND SOME OF THE COMPUTER MODELS HINT THAT SOMETHING COULD TRY TO FORM.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/261758.shtml?

Afternoon-Caribbean Forecast Discussion here.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 27 2005 01:23 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Quote:

Tropical Depression #26... that just sounds wrong.

I thought so too until I went back and counted:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/

Here is some silliness to consider: If we get Beta out of this, as seems likely, then I don't feel comfortable referring to Beta as an "it." To me, Beta seems like a guy. One the other hand Delta (well, it doesn't seem so farfetched we could get to Delta), seems like a gal to me, and Gamma, another guy. Don't you just hate the entire Greek name thing? It's not like we would ever run out of real names.

recmod

(Weather Guru)

Thu Oct 27 2005 01:35 AM

Depression #26 Forms

NRL Navy Site now has 90L listed as Tropical Depression # 26 at 11.0N, 81.6W with 35mph winds....

--Lou

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 27 2005 01:35 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Please forgive me for asking this, I simply can not resist it. Delete me and take away my posting privileges if you must but,
IS IT GOING TO HIT TAMPA? I hope so, then we can get over ourselves once and for all. This is from some one who has had enough hurricane tracking for this year and next. By the way would some one please shut the door on the way out of the refridgerator. Brrrr!

danielw

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 27 2005 01:40 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

I've been reading the AFDs from Mobile,AL to Key West, FL. Almost all of them mention the Caribbean system in some shape, form or fashion. A few with heavier wording than others. None, as of afternoon, took it to this level though.

This is the last paragraph in this Afternoon's Extended Forecast Discussion from HPC in Maryland.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
149 PM EDT WED OCT 26 2005

VALID 12Z SAT OCT 29 2005 - 12Z WED NOV 02 2005
(Valid from 7 AM Sat Oct 29 2005- 6AM Wed Nov 02 2005~danielw)
CDT ends during the period.

WRN CARIBBEAN...
THERE IS A QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THIS SYS MOVES INTO CNTRL AMERICA OR NOT EARLY IN THE PD. THE GFS/NOGAPS MOVE IT INLAND...
AS DOES THE TPC TRACK GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...OLDER GFS RUNS/ECMWF/UKMET/CAN/NOGAPS DRIFT IT NNWWD...AND HAVE CHANGED THE
TRACK TWDS THIS THINKING SINCE IT IS ALREADY PASSING THE 81ST MERIDIAN...WHICH MOVES THE SYS ACRS NERN NICARAGUA/HONDURAS ON
DAYS 4-6 /SUN-TUE AM/.
SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK/
DISCUSSIONS FROM TPC REGARDING THE SHORT TERM PROSPECTS OF THIS SYS.

ROTH

HanKFranK

(User)

Thu Oct 27 2005 01:50 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

folks in the westpac would have to wonder what we're complaining about. they're getting a slacker season over there in terms of totals, probably because the atlantic is more aggressive in serving as a pathway for all that tropical moisture.
they ought to post-analyze the depression back to earlier today when the circulation became apparent, but gut feeling is that the best track will start at 00z/27 at the end of the season.
pretty straightforward forecast from me for it... slow wnw/nw movement, slow intensification until a core becomes established. track is going to be a hell of a complicated one. the system is close enough to central america to be held in check to a degree and result in an asymmetric wind field if it expands any. the impulse coming in from the west will likely start tugging it opposite the weak steering flow, so if the other one becomes established there's the chance it'll stall offshore or even drift back to the east.
the 'other one', 91L, has about the prospects that alpha did a week ago. it'll be in a stronger steering environment and will get handed off to the westerlies near the windward passage, if it develops. it's a day and a half from classification at least... but by the weekend it too could be menacing the western caribbean.
even when both of these are out of the way, the subtropical ridge north of puerto rico is likely to remain in place. subsequent waves will have to be watched, as models continue to show low pressures in the western caribbean even after the systems are lost.
HF 0150z27october

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 27 2005 02:20 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Quote:

Quote:

Tropical Depression #26... that just sounds wrong.

I thought so too until I went back and counted:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/

Here is some silliness to consider: If we get Beta out of this, as seems likely, then I don't feel comfortable referring to Beta as an "it." To me, Beta seems like a guy. One the other hand Delta (well, it doesn't seem so farfetched we could get to Delta), seems like a gal to me, and Gamma, another guy. Don't you just hate the entire Greek name thing? It's not like we would ever run out of real names.

...you know what my father said to me the other day? he goes, "what the hell is the big fuss about... when you have a kid and your having trouble figuring out a name you like, you go buy a book and it has pages and pages and pages, hundreds of names to choose from"...

oh man - what could say

Random Chaos

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Oct 27 2005 02:20 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Ah...what a fun season...already through alpha and another 2 systems might possibly develop in the next week...and then we still have another month before hurricane season officially ends.

Just wondering...what would happen if we got such an active season that they went through all of the greek alphabet? Would they just start numbering the systems or would they go on to some other alphabet?

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 27 2005 02:41 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

actually...i'm seeing a couple of shear axis' that could serve as interest in the sw caribbean...

90l still sits precariously by the n panama coast with it's gentle twisting motion and some small convective cells...

there appears to be newly forming axis of rotation situated along the 15n, between 76 and 70w. not much convection there, but with difluence aloft and a shear axis ....gotta watch those. obviously, 90l shall remain the focus for now...

also, the area n of 90l some 200naut miles doesn't currenly have a noticeable circulation but that is the deepest convection...

interestingly, the entire area of the menagerie is beneath what looks like an even better anticyclonic regime than earlier in the day.. we could conceivably end up with a myriad of thing to observe over the next 2 weeks.. the itcz is belching up some decent stuff mid way between africa and the island; though the lat isn't too charming...

CoalCracker

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 27 2005 02:45 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

My vote's for using Roman gods' and goddesses' names should the Greek alphabet be exhausted. Apollo, Bacchus, Cupid, Diana, etc. Speaking of exhausted, that pretty much describes my mental and physical state right now. Feel like I went 10 rounds with Iron Mike Tyson in his prime. And I thought last year couldn't be equalled. Shows how much I know. Is it possible for someone to give the weather gods a call and ask for a time out? It's really getting old seeing those shaded areas on the NHC's potential development maps just about every day. Here's hoping whatever else develops does minimal damage to the smallest amount of people.

danielw

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 27 2005 02:46 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Satellite Imagery through 0215Z.
Three systems are visible on satellite loops from 2345Z-0215Z.

90L off the Costa Rican Coast. 81W
91L east of the Windward Islands. 60W
nnL in the area of 42 W.

Of the three above systems. nnL has the most pronounced convection. Cloud tops in the minus80C-85C range.
90L has a much more defined circulation, but less convection (minus70C-75C) and lightning.

91L has dropped into the minus60C-69C range. Possible circulation near the southern end of the convection, east of St. Lucia/ Martinique.

corrected Island names~danielw

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 27 2005 02:50 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

T12...yes TD26 is on the NHC site for the 11pm.

t-squared...that area of convection to the N is associated with TD26.

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 27 2005 02:56 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Quote:

T12...yes TD26 is on the NHC site for the 11pm.

t-squared...that area of convection to the N is associated with TD26.

just to be a poop... doesn't "SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. " ....sound like a contradiction to....
"THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 N MI FROM THE GIVEN POSITION." ??

seriously though...i thought it was a depression earlier today, whch you've probably gathered by earlier posts.. also, that stuff to the n of td 26 - i believe it has disassociated its self from depression when looking at wv imagery.. but, the feature really is of limited concern - i know..

Random Chaos

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Oct 27 2005 03:04 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

hmmm...wierdly TD 26 discussion is actually the one for former TD Tammy from Oct 6th...someone goofed over at NHC...

danielw

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 27 2005 03:04 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

That's the normal header for declaring a Tropical Depression~Without Reconnaisance.
The mileage is probably due to the scaling and skew of the satellite images.
It gives a rough idea of the area, if you are in or near the depression though.
However...Most mariners and locals would probably know that a depression was forming from the winds and weather.

Interesting note. Jim Cantore just mentioned the three above systems on the Tropical Update on TWC.

Link for climatology of tropical systems passing through or near Martinuqe from 1888-1996.
http://www.cgste.mq/meteorologie/images/ouragan.gif

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 27 2005 03:05 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Quote:

hmmm...wierdly TD 26 discussion is actually the one for former TD Tammy from Oct 6th...someone goofed over at NHC...

...i haven't even read it yeah but that's histerical if true... yeah, like they meant to classify it earlier today but they got the "no classification" mixed up from an earlier date also?

- just kidding...

Random Chaos

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Oct 27 2005 03:07 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

well they fixed it now...proper TD discussion listed now.

Forcast wind speeds:
Code:


INITIAL      27/0300Z 11.1N  81.5W    30 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 11.5N  82.0W    35 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 12.5N  82.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 13.0N  83.0W    50 KT
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 13.0N  84.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 13.0N  85.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW

So it looks like we will have a Beta in about 24-36 hours...

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 27 2005 03:11 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Quote:

doesn't "SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. " ....sound like a contradiction to.... "THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 N MI FROM THE GIVEN POSITION." ??

seriously though...i thought it was a depression earlier today, whch you've probably gathered by earlier posts.. also, that stuff to the n of td 26 - i believe it has disassociated its self from depression when looking at wv imagery.. but, the feature really is of limited concern - i know..

No, no. Ok, first, the curved line of convection to the north has always been a feeder band for TD26, and will continue to be. I didn't see your earlier posts today on this.

Also if you look at the visual sat images you will see that earlier today convection was firing off around the southern rim of the center of low pressure as it rotated around to the NW. Then just sometime after the sat images went to nighttime mode something happened, and the convection was on the other side of the center (look at the various 85ghz passes and compare with the given loc for the center), and I could not see a smooth transition. So I have learned that at this state the center can reform and I just took this to indicate that it had reformed or was reforming nearby.

Note--also...see what it says in the discussion? "APPEARS TO BE TRAPPED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH" Now that is what I thought Isaw on the sat earlier before I left work, and why I posted about how I could not see the system moving anywhere but west. Because if you looked at Honduras and higher I thought you could see the bottom of the high pressure and the CW rotation. But I didn't think Clark mentioned this so I assumed I was not reading the sat images properly.

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 27 2005 03:17 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Quote:

Interesting note. Jim Cantore just mentioned the three above systems on the Tropical Update on TWC.

Never mind i see...

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 27 2005 03:24 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Quote:

Quote:

doesn't "SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. " ....sound like a contradiction to.... "THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND COULD BE ANYWHERE WITHIN 60 N MI FROM THE GIVEN POSITION." ??

seriously though...i thought it was a depression earlier today, whch you've probably gathered by earlier posts.. also, that stuff to the n of td 26 - i believe it has disassociated its self from depression when looking at wv imagery.. but, the feature really is of limited concern - i know..

No, no. Ok, first, the curved line of convection to the north has always been a feeder band for TD26, and will continue to be. I didn't see your earlier posts today on this.

Also if you look at the visual sat images you will see that earlier today convection was firing off around the southern rim of the center of low pressure as it rotated around to the NW. Then just sometime after the sat images went to nighttime mode something happened, and the convection was on the other side of the center (look at the various 85ghz passes and compare with the given loc for the center), and I could not see a smooth transition. So I have learned that at this state the center can reform and I just took this to indicate that it had reformed or was reforming nearby.

I understand what you are saying Margie... It just appears to me that the feeder band you have in mention has been bifurcated from the core lat/lon of the depression...

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 27 2005 03:34 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Quote:

I understand what you are saying Margie... It just appears to me that the feeder band you have in mention has been bifurcated from the core lat/lon of the depression...

No there has always been a connection, you can see if if you look over time on the sat images, they move in tandem. You don't have to have an unbroken line of convection along the entire path.

If you go back and look at Wilma from the time she left the Yucatan and when going over Cuba, oh and also when she had moved into the ATL, looking at the feeder bands she had off and on that was very interesting. At first one was actually pulling dry air all the way from the BOC, over the Yucatan, and up through the NW Carib and north into the GOM and into Wilma in the SE quad, and you would not have been able to spot this by looking for convection....later when she was over central Cuba, one went right over Cuba and pulled warm moist air from the Caribbean, helping her to steadily increase intensity while over the loop current N of Cuba. Once in the Gulf Stream, she moved quickly but kept an elongating feeder band in the southern part of the Gulf Stream to bring in warm moist air. Wilma's structure was very interesting...she formed from two symmetric spiral bands, and at different times in her lifespan, those disappeared but then showed up again later...I think the basic structure was always there, just not so apparent in the dense CDO when she was a very strong hurricane.

danielw

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 27 2005 03:41 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Food for thought. The Only Thing I hate about Hurricane season ending is that it gets Cold.

Looks like we might have something to watch for the next week. Between TD26, 91L and nnL.

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 27 2005 03:48 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Quote:

Food for thought. The Only Thing I hate about Hurricane season ending is that it gets Cold.

Looks like we might have something to watch for the next week. Between TD26, 91L and nnL.

...is nnl this business in the middle atlantic...?

danielw

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 27 2005 03:51 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

I guess I should cal it something else. As 'nn' might imply that the Navy has it as a "NONAME" system.

Yes, it's the system east of the Lesser Antilles near 61W.

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 27 2005 03:56 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Quote:

I guess I should cal it something else. As 'nn' might imply that the Navy has it as a "NONAME" system.

Yes, it's the system east of the Lesser Antilles near 61W.

yeah...cuz i wondered about that earlier tonight...so, it's officially an "nnl" then..hm... i wonder if it will get an invest run in the 00z gfdl ....that'd be cool!

danielw

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 27 2005 04:08 AM

Model Runs

SPECIAL NCEP DISCUSSION
CENTRAL OPERATIONS/NCEP/NWS/WASHINGTON DC
0250 UTC THU OCT 27 2005

270250Z...GFS MODEL STARTED ON TIME. NGM MODEL DONE.
NAM MODEL WAS OUT TO T+75HRS.

00Z RAOB RECAP..

PASY/70414 - 10159; N/A
EYW/72201 - 10142; EQUIP PROBLEMS (Key West.FL)
OKX/72501 - 10158; EQUIP PROBLEMS
KPP/78970 - 10159; N/A
KCR/78384 - 10142; EQUIP PROBLEMS

NOTE: 26 OCT 12Z UKMET WAS TRUNCATED AT 96 HOURS DUE TO A FIRE AT EXETER WHERE THE UKMET IS PRODUCED...
ALSO THE 26 OCT 12Z ECMWF WILL NOT BE AVAILABLE.

EXETER IS OPERATIONAL AGAIN AND FUTURE MODEL RUNS SHOULD BE AVAILABLE...

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 27 2005 04:18 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

TD26 is getting so organized so fast...its circulation, while sparse, is becoming very symmetric and large, covering Nicaragua and all of Panama. Just like this aft, you can get little peeks at the large LLC in the NE quad as it rotates. It doesn't look like that much up close, on the floater, and the center is still not well-organized, but if you look from the eastpac or carib sat images, you can see the large-scale organization (or it looks very nice on the navy web site as well). The nice little anticyclonic outflow that was right over the center around noonish, is now looking a little mangled, I don't know what that means, but with such a large area of cyclonic motion, the center is sure to develop.

Just went back to read some posts, and saw that about a fire (!). You just find the most interesting things, reading everything like you do.

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 27 2005 04:20 AM

Re: Model Runs

INITIAL 27/0300Z 11.1N 81.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 11.5N 82.0W 35 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 12.5N 82.5W 40 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 13.0N 83.0W 50 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 13.0N 84.0W 30 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 30/0000Z 13.0N 85.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

...I'm not sure I buy it... We'll see... there's enough here, perhaps theoretically based but real nonetheless, to suggest this could avoid the demise over Nic.

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 27 2005 04:28 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Quote:

TD26 is getting so organized so fast...its circulation, while sparse, is becoming very symmetric and large, covering Nicaragua and all of Panama. Just like this aft, you can get little peeks at the large LLC in the NE quad as it rotates. It doesn't look like that much up close, on the floater, and the center is still not well-organized, but if you look from the eastpac or carib sat images, you can see the large-scale organization (or it looks very nice on the navy web site as well). The nice little anticyclonic outflow that was right over the center around noonish, is now looking a little mangled, I don't know what that means, but with such a large area of cyclonic motion, the center is sure to develop.

...what do you think - I'm getting almost no detectable direction for movement at this hour...absolutely, dead stopped there. it is likely this will become a ts on thursday but i'm surprised at the rather lackluster intensity guidance considering what avails (those being decent to at time amazing looking u/a and boiling hot water (must consider that lat/lon hasn't been processed, as it is relatively rare for that specific location to be so)) anyway, i figure this thing will get to a critical momentum and then we'll see an explosive scenario at some point over the next 3 days - probably sooner rather than later...

...a person study of mine has shown that nhc is underestimates the intensity at upper extremes of systems 75% of the time - hush hush.

danielw

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 27 2005 06:09 AM

TD 26 and 91L

TD 26
Satellite imagery through 0515Z is showing a "CDO"-like area near the center of circulation.
Dvorak satellite estimates are up from the initial CI of 2.0 to the 0515Z CI of 2.1.

0515Z IR loop is indicating Outflow present in the SW Quadrant. From SSE through WNW.
WV loop showing an double-topped peak of convection near the center. Convective towers? In this stage of development?

91L, just east of the Lesser Antilles, meanwhile has an impressive, moderately large thunderstorm complex near the center...without any other signs of development.

edit-0545Z IR indicating TD 26 is developing better Outflow. The storm now has outflow from the SE through the NW ( 5 o'clock through 10 o'clock positions).~danielw 0625Z

danielw

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 27 2005 07:10 AM

Re: TD 26

NRLMRY has changed 26L to BETA at 0615Z.
Still developing at this time.

Of interest are two other areas of convection in close proximity to TD 26.
One near the Nicaraguan/ Honduran Border and another between Jamaica and the Northern Coast of Columbia. Both of these areas are moderately convective at 0700Z.

danielw

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 27 2005 08:57 AM

Tropical Storm BETA

TROPICAL STORM BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU OCT 27 2005

...RECORD 23RD TROPICAL STORM OF SEASON FORMS IN SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...
...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/270855.shtml

Excerpts from the 5 AM EDT Discussion.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNANIMOUSLY 35 KT...AND THEY ARE ONLY THAT LOW DUE TO DVORAK CONSTRAINTS. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN APPEARS TO CORRESPOND TO AN EVEN STRONGER SYSTEM...BUT THE WINDS HAVE PROBABLY NOT YET CAUGHT UP TO THE CLOUD SIGNATURE.
THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH 35 KT WINDS...
MAKING BETA THE RECORD-SETTING 23RD TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2005 SEASON.emphasis added~danielw

MOST OF THE MODELS FORECAST ENOUGH RIDGING TO DEVELOP IN PLACE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF TO EVENTUALLY TURN BETA WESTWARD INTO NICARAGUA...BUT THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL DISAGREEMENT ON WHEN THAT TURN WILL OCCUR.
OVERALL THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...
AND NONE OF THEM BRING THE CENTER ONSHORE IN LESS THAN 48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS KEPT ALONG THE SAME PATH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...
BUT SLOWED DOWN TO NUDGE TOWARD THE GUIDANCE.

FURTHER... SINCE THE 36 HOUR FORECAST
IS NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR WITHIN
36 HOURS IN THE AREAS ALREADY UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
HOWEVER...WE HAVE NOT YET BEEN ABLE TO CONTACT NICARAGUA REGARDING
THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH IN ADDITION TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/270900.shtml

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 27 2005 11:00 AM

Re: TD 26 and 91L

Quote:

91L, just east of the Lesser Antilles, meanwhile has an impressive, moderately large thunderstorm complex near the center...without any other signs of development.

Near the center? I see banding on 91L, but I don't see any signs of a LLC (or do you mean the physical center of the CDO?). It definately looks larger than it did last night, but it really has the appearance of a front rather than a tropical cyclone, in my opinion. I think it is possible it could ultimately develop (if it does not run into Beta), but it will be a few days at least unless it really gets its act together.

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 27 2005 12:48 PM

Re: Tropical Storm BETA

So Beta got it together and consolidated overnight. Hmm...the 8am came out and still no hur warnings. Well something must be keeping Nicaragua occupied; no one at the weather service there has time to answer the bat-phone.

And now the Carib is busier than a long-tailed cat in a roomful of rocking chairs, with all the convection generated by Beta, plus 91L finally arrived...and look what's coming from the ATL. Good grief, it's almost Nov.

So what I saw yesterday was a trough...the high referenced by disc #1 is the big one currently out in the ATL. OK, well, ridging is suppsed to develop so at least I was on the right track with what I was seeing.

Beaumont, TX

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 27 2005 01:07 PM

Re: Tropical Storm BETA

So, Beta has formed. Another record. What is coming from the ATL?

Thunderbird12

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 27 2005 01:26 PM

Re: Tropical Storm BETA

Things really flared up overnight... we have Beta, the tropical wave between Beta and 91L has developed some deep convection, 91L seems a bit more consolidated around the supposed LLC that keeps being mentioned on the TWD, and the wave east of 91L also keeps generating deep convection. The wave between Beta and 91L still has a ways to go to develop and probably won't given the influence of Beta's outflow, assuming that develops as expected. The wave in the western Atlantic is still hanging in there pretty well, despite NHC's repeated statements that winds are not favorable for significant strengthening. That may have a chance if it can get into a better environment.

Hootowl

(Weather Hobbyist)

Thu Oct 27 2005 01:57 PM

Re: Tropical Storm BETA

I think I'm finally losing it....I know the public advisory on the front page said 8:00am - now it says 6:59pm.

TCPAT1. FORECAST/
ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCMAT1.

FORECASTER KNABB

huh?

Too tired to even think. I can't believe we still have 35 days left of this season.

and I did NOT want to see all of this flare up everywhere this morning!!!

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Oct 27 2005 02:14 PM

Re: Tropical Storm BETA

The Hunters have been on the tarmac at TIA since Monday, but they just took off approx 10:00a.m. Turned south.

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 27 2005 02:32 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Quote:

Note--also...see what it says in the discussion? "APPEARS TO BE TRAPPED BY A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH" Now that is what I thought Isaw on the sat earlier before I left work, and why I posted about how I could not see the system moving anywhere but west. Because if you looked at Honduras and higher I thought you could see the bottom of the high pressure and the CW rotation. But I didn't think Clark mentioned this so I assumed I was not reading the sat images properly.

Depends on which high pressure system you want to look at. The satellite analyses from UWisconsin show one parked over the system...the NHC discussions have mentioned the one left in Wilma's wake well to the NE of the system. They are both correct, in all actuality.

Thunderbird12

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 27 2005 02:43 PM

Re: Tropical Storm BETA

Quote:

The Hunters have been on the tarmac at TIA since Monday, but they just took off approx 10:00a.m. Turned south.

Assuming they are headed towards Beta, they have a long flight ahead of them.

Beta is looking pretty formidable this morning, with well defined spiral banding features and a relatively small but dense CDO. Since it does not seem to be moving much at the moment, it looks like it will have plenty of time to become a hurricane if it keeps developing as it is now.

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 27 2005 03:01 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

11a NHC Discussion mentions the possibility of rapid intensification and it certainly is possible. There's no sense in bringing up Mitch comparisons here, though, despite the similarities in the time of year and location. Beta should become a hurricane by late tonight if it keeps organizing like it has thus far today with a major hurricane a possibility sometime Friday into Saturday. I'd like the see the microwave overpass the NHC is talking about, but the most recent one on the web missed the storm -- so I imagine they have something newer. Nevertheless, it's one everyone down there needs to watch.

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 27 2005 03:08 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Yup I noted my mistake in a later post, but I feel good about taking a stab at trying to understand things by looking at the sat images!

Well there is one on the NRL site from 9am, it just shows a lozenge-shaped blob of convection in the middle, and the two new spiral bands on either side.

Wait'l next year! Cubs win W S - No hurricanes

(Registered User)

Thu Oct 27 2005 03:14 PM

Re: Depression #26 Forms

Hi: A new guy so please be patient with me. If you are going to use the Greek letters, that should gamMa be followed by gamPa just to be fair. I do learn a lot from all of you so THANKS.

I get the pun, but I don't think the NHC is going after keeping the female/male alternating names convection with the Greek alphabet or additions to it...just a hunch... -Clark

doug

(Weather Analyst)

Thu Oct 27 2005 04:16 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

The 1545 vis on the NRL site show a definite LLC in 91L moving fairly rapidly west along 13N. I won't be surprised if the TD 27 designation is given this in the next day.

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 27 2005 04:32 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Quote:

The 1545 vis on the NRL site show a definite LLC in 91L moving fairly rapidly west along 13N. I won't be surprised if the TD 27 designation is given this in the next day.

Good eye...I was just looking at that on floater2 and could not see it. But the NRL is so much clearer. They have it labeled as 12.5N, but you are right, it is 13N.

If you go to the floater and look from 1415Z on then you can see the fast movement, convection just east of the center, that doug mentions.

I am lucky enough to have a cubicle that faces a southern window. In the mornings I pull back the blinds and let the sun shine straight in my eyes. I just crave it, living in MN. So I can't see sat images very well on the PC most of the day, but can see just fine to type in text. Whenever I want to look at sat images I have to get really close to the screen and peer in!

HanKFranK

(User)

Thu Oct 27 2005 05:52 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

was about to freak because the recent zoomed out visibles were showing a dark spot at the center of beta. zoomed in using ghcc's neat features to discover it's a shadow from an overshooting top. whew, thought we had another wilma-esque pressure nosedive starting.
it's a comment already made, but the shallow ocean off the east coast of nicaragua should keep beta's intensity from getting too nuts... if the storm isn't one of those compact systems that has a small, hellishly powerful inner core. not sure which direction it's going right now. worth noting that the usual bottoming-out of the storms that intensify rapidly to high categories takes 3-4 days. early forecasts were getting the storm onshore tomorrow.. but most recently it's pushed back to later sunday. that's enough time to get a very strong system, if it takes the plunge. also interesting that the gfdl has it crossing into the pacific ocean late in the period. it'd have to get some real westward momentum to make it, and i'm not too convinced the steering will ever get strong enough to push it over. something to keep an eye on in case it starts becoming a fixture in the models.
for folks who want to lament how unprecedented the current late season storms are, i'll draw you attention to mitch (at it's category 5 peak seven years ago today), lenny (mid november 1999, the west to east caribbean hurricane), and michelle (forming in the last days of october 2001, for a cuba crossing on november 4). also take a gander at hurricane joan, which smashed into southern nicaragua as a category 4 on october 23, 1988. what we're seeing is quite typical, just extra bothersome on top of the atypically bad season we've been having.
thought i'd chime in on 91L also. it's not holding down quite the persistent convective mass one would like to see for a system to form, but remains coherent and does appear to have a noticeable wind shift and fast north/slow south profile suggestive of formative low pressure. the shear fields for the next couple of days look friendly to it, but with beta revving up i wouldn't be convinced that it won't start getting beaten on by the other system. earlier runs showing it tracing the subtropical ridge and curving up ahead of a shortwave off the east coast are less convincing now that it'll definitely interact with beta, and may get drawn further west or not allowed to develop. we have days to watch it.
HF 1752z27october

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Thu Oct 27 2005 06:34 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

A couple of other features that catch the eye for a brief moment are:

29N 87W: Some sort of low pressure, looks like shear is pummeling it, so it shouldn't be an issue, but it's still something to look at, (if for no other reason than to remind ourselves that not every low pressure develops into a tropical depression

)

31N 80W Low pressure moving due north it seems, even if it were in a good environment, it looks like it'd run out of ocean before it is going to run into south carolina.

I think 91L is about kaput, though never say never. The wave in the atlantic also isn't impressing me that much right either.

I also looked up the greek alphabet, and am copying it here those people who don't know it

Alpha
Beta
Gamma
Delta
Epsilon
Zeta
Eta
Theta
Iota
Kappa
Lamda
Mu
Nu
Xi
Omikron
Pi
Rho
Sigma
Tau
Upsilon
Phi
Chi
Psi
Omega

I think we have an outside shot at making it to 30 depressions (that would be 4 more), particularly if 91L and the mid atlantic wave do manage to hang together (which isn't looking likely). There's always late season storms that form (Olga 2001 comes to mind), so just because the water tempratures are lower than summer, doesn't mean that things can't happen.

Considering how poorly I performed with Wilma, I'm not even going to take a stab at Beta

-Mark

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 27 2005 06:36 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

I don't know if anyone cares about the EastPac, esp something moving away from shore, but last night when looking at Beta, I saw some clouds just rolling along in a very pretty circular fashion, and it looked even better this morning, now it is invest 92E on NRL site.

Littlebit

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Oct 27 2005 07:57 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

I hope it's ok for me to throw this in here since we seem to have a lull in tropical threats. Is it just me or does the LBAR seem to be wishcasting this season?

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 27 2005 08:19 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

CFHC needs an FAQ.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml

CFHC doesn't use models. NHC and NCEP do! A glossary would take more space on the servers.~danielw

damejune2

(Storm Tracker)

Thu Oct 27 2005 08:46 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

I agree with you there. LBAR has been everywhere the other models haven't been! What is the point of a model such as LBAR and XTRAP? Never could figure out why they even bother using those. Also, the BAM models - deep, medium and ??shallow?? What's their function? I've always been told that GFDL, GFS, NOGAPS and UKMET are the globals and the models we should concern ourselves with. If someone on here can explain the reason for the other models, i'd appreciate it!

Ed in Va

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 27 2005 08:50 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

I believe XTRAP stands for "extrapolated" and indicates where the storm would go if it continued in its present direction. Why are models referred to as "global?"

ralphfl

(Weather Master)

Thu Oct 27 2005 09:13 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

No coming to Tampa posts? oh wait this is another strom forgot :PP just kidding don't go into a fit but anyway Beta is going to be nothing to worry about in the US and with 69o water temps off the tampa coast i don't see much coming this way but we shall see.

wulrich

(Verified CFHC User)

Thu Oct 27 2005 09:15 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.

The LBar Model is a two-dimensional track prediction model that is initialized with vertically-averaged winds and upper atmospheric air pressures from the Aviation run of the MRF global model. It is often different from many other models for this reason.

The XTRap is just "extrapolated", as the person before me explained. X Trap iS NOT a computer model, but, indicates the direction in which the current storm is moving, and where it would move if it continued at the current speed and direction.

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 27 2005 09:21 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.

No surprises with the 5pm, and a (un)welcome piece of info from the disc, which says:

AN AMSU OVERPASS AT 1547Z SHOWED A BANDING EYE UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTIVE TOPS

Kind of hard for me to tell otherwise, with all the convection, but clearly Beta continues to push on.

But I think this indicates moving on fairly quickly to Cat 2. NHC capped their (so broad it was fairly useless) intensity forecast at 95kt.

edited to add (un) ~danielw

Thunderbird12

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 27 2005 09:21 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

You'd figure that if any model would successfully predict what Beta was going to do, it would be the BAM models!

Beware, the more you find out about the various hurricane models, the more my lame joke above will begin to make sense. It probably won't get any funnier though.

"Global" models are numerical weather prediction models that produce output for the entire globe. That is in contrast to regional models, which have a more limited forecast domain (like North America), or mesoscale models which have an even smaller domain.

Thunderbird12

(Meteorologist)

Thu Oct 27 2005 09:27 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.

There were a couple of other interesting tidbits from the discussion. The LBAR model was cited for the first time in a long time that I can remember, if only to dismiss its track as unlikely. As they noted, the CMC model track is actually pretty similar to the LBAR, so it is not alone in being out on a limb this time.

I also found this tidbit interesting:

SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 55 KT FROM TAFB...45 KT FROM SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA.

Either there is a typo there, or AFWA is a really tough grader today.

Ned

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Oct 27 2005 09:50 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Quote:

Please forgive me for asking this, I simply can not resist it. Delete me and take away my posting privileges if you must but,
IS IT GOING TO HIT TAMPA? I hope so, then we can get over ourselves once and for all. This is from some one who has had enough hurricane tracking for this year and next. By the way would some one please shut the door on the way out of the refridgerator. Brrrr!

Might be a little early for a call from Polk County

Ned

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Oct 27 2005 09:58 PM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Quote:

No coming to Tampa posts? oh wait this is another strom forgot :PP just kidding don't go into a fit but anyway Beta is going to be nothing to worry about in the US and with 69o water temps off the tampa coast i don't see much coming this way but we shall see.

Tampa?

Stay tuned

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Thu Oct 27 2005 10:10 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.

Also I got to thinking...if Beta goes into Central America, the name may need to be retired. Just one of the weird possible scenarios we talked about before with this Greek naming convention. Since it is going to be moving north and staying over water now for a day or two longer than supposed 24 hours ago, it is less certain that it will turn to the west, although still the most probable outcome...but almost certainly now will be close to major hurricane status when it does make landfall. But even more critical than how strong winds are at landfall, will be how much rain Beta dumps on Central America before moving on or dissipating. Remember the horrific death toll with Stan? Central America doesn't need this. Of course, who does.

StPeteBill

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Oct 28 2005 12:03 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Quote:

Quote:

No coming to Tampa posts? oh wait this is another strom forgot :PP just kidding don't go into a fit but anyway Beta is going to be nothing to worry about in the US and with 69o water temps off the tampa coast i don't see much coming this way but we shall see.

Tampa? Stay tuned

Hey Ned, how long you think it will it take for the official prediciton to come through?

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Oct 28 2005 12:06 AM

Other areas?

SSD satellite imagery through 2315Z.
91L has dissolved almost all of it's convection.
9_L, that was near 41W last night, is no longer
visible on WV imagery. Having been cut off, or forced South into South America.
A large 'pocket' of dry air now extends from the South American Coast, just east of the Lesser Antilles, and NNE from there into the Mid Atlantic.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/WV/20.jpg

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Oct 28 2005 12:16 AM

Beta

Beta's 2345Z current intensity level (CI), using the Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique-AODT, is
3.6; roughly a 57kt wind and estimated MCP of 999.4mb.
Note-CI estimates from other sources may be higher or lower.~danielw
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/research/products/dvorak/odt.html

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Oct 28 2005 12:40 AM

Re: Beta

85ghz scans up on NRL now, and, also, you can just see the center of Beta on vis sat image 2345Z, corresponding to the same area. A slightly darker area, it has convection firing almost all around it...everywhere except the NE side.

Which is how Daniel could do the ODT...how do you do that, do you visually eyeball it or use some kind of SW, or did you time-average it from previous estimates?

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 28 2005 12:59 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Gotta remember, damejune -- we haven't always had the GFS, NOGAPS, and other similar global models. Back not all that long ago, the global models (the ones we have now and older ones) performed horribly with tropical cyclones. Way back in the day, all we had to go off was the LFM and NGM models in terms of global/regional models and the simple track models such as the A98E, NHC90/91, LBAR, and BAM-series. These such models were state of the art not 15 years ago; nowadays, we've come along far enough with data, computing power, and with the physics/dynamics to have pretty good forecasts available to us out of the global models.

Beta's performing pretty much as expected and I think once it finally does develop a consistent eye -- like Wilma -- we'll see it go through a period of rapid intensifcation. Nothing like Wilma, mind you, but intensification to cat. 2 seems quite possible. There is pretty low heat content over the area where Beta's at right now, largely due to the lay of the land there, that should help to keep intensity in check. The further north it gets, however, the higher the heat content. If it stays off-shore longer -- perhaps getting into that area between the Yucatan and Honduras like Mitch did -- the intensity forecast would need to be upped and the landfall forecast delayed substantially. Not calling for another Mitch scenario, but I wouldn't be surprised if the storm did get into that notch of water up there...if only just so.

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Oct 28 2005 12:59 AM

ODT

Actually I don't do the ODT. CIMSS, AFWA, TPC and other agencies do it. I just check it frequently.

I have some software that might, (might) do it manually. But it's time consuming and I've never tried to do it.

If you follow the link. It gives a very detailed
description of how AODT is performed.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/research/products/dvorak/odt.html

Beaumont, TX

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Oct 28 2005 01:00 AM

Re: Beta

How heavily populated is the area Beta is supposed to make landfall? I know rain could be a real problem in Central America.
Did NHC ever get in contact with Nicaragua?

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Oct 28 2005 01:06 AM

Beta

Beta has a cloud top peaking in the CDO at 0045Z.
LSU's ESL temperature estimates are in the minus80-85C range.

Giving the resemblance of a 'sunny side up' fried egg.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI1_ir.gif

Clark

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 28 2005 01:08 AM

Re: Beta

The ODT algorithm is entirely objective -- hence the O in ODT -- and was developed by researchers at the University of Wisconsin. It takes satellite pixel data and applies a particular algorithm based upon the organization of the storm to determine an intensity. It takes out human bias/subjectiveness but is still in the developmental stages. All in all, it usually does pretty well, particularly in correcting for things that aren't accounted for in the Dvorak scheme.

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Oct 28 2005 01:15 AM

Re: Beta

This is a wide area IR loop from LSU ESL.
You can see a front moving in to the Plains. A wave rotating through the Tennesee/ Ohio Valley. And another lighter impulse moving through LA/MS/AL.
I've seen at least 3 Tornado Warnings in Extreme Southern Texas this evening. Possibly associated with downsloping winds off the Sierra Oriental Range in Northern Mexicoand warm? moist air off of the GOM.

edit: Storms in South Texas appear to be more inline with an inverted trough and associated Low over the Midland,TX area.~danielw 0125Z

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Oct 28 2005 01:40 AM

Nicaragua Population

Quote:

How heavily populated is the area Beta is supposed to make landfall? I know rain could be a real problem in Central America.
Did NHC ever get in contact with Nicaragua?

5,465,100 (July 2005 est.)
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/nu.html#Geo

bobbutts

(Weather Hobbyist)

Fri Oct 28 2005 02:14 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Quote:

No coming to Tampa posts? oh wait this is another strom forgot :PP just kidding don't go into a fit but anyway Beta is going to be nothing to worry about in the US and with 69o water temps off the tampa coast i don't see much coming this way but we shall see.

I'm not seeing any 69 degree waters within 1000 miles of Tampa
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/SST/PAC/20.jpg
69 degrees Fahrenheit = 20.6 degrees Celsius

106NM West Northwest of Tampa, FL
Water Temperature (WTMP): 77.0 °F
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42036

Storm Hunter

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Fri Oct 28 2005 02:48 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

looks like the LBAR moved even farther north....

but expect a west turn tommorrow from what should be hurricane beta in the morning!!!!

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 28 2005 02:49 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Interesting aspect about the models... As you know, BAM (Beta and Advection Model) has three species

1 BAMS; 850mb to 700mb steering depth near the edges where vortex opens to environmental flow. Essentially better for predicting track guidance with lower tropospheric events such as depressions.
2 BAMM; 850mb to 400mb steering depth is essentially better for predicting track guidance for TS'
3 BAMD; 850mb to 200mb steering depth is essentially better for predicting track guidance for hurricanes..

One must wonder if the establishment of TS intensity will somehow negate the inclusion of BAMS in lieu of the BAMM; and so on to BAMD if hurricane status is achieved.

The interesting aspect leaps out that the LBAR does not include the Beta Effect, nor does the statistical based climatology and persistence - "cliper", and those are the ones that in the 06z, 12z and 18z runs do not want to take Beta westward. It is almost suggestive that to remove beta effects allows the in situ albeit weak tendency to be the predominant steering mechanic, which based on the observations on those three runs of the global based models indeed is a tendency for NNW/N drift. In fact, speaking of the BAM runs...in that order above (1, 2 and 3), particularly in the 12z run we note that the lowest altitude advection parameters have the deepest latitude track, and the tracks bend slightly north albeit slightly, as the model that is run considers a deeper steering field (pressure means above)

In a way, that tells me that the west track could be dubious because it is based primarily on the absence of critical values deemed negligible, which is risky out in time. The CMC for example is also in the LBAR/CLIPER camp, and I'm fairly certain it doesn't use tricky considerations having to do with the physics of tropical disturbances (like the product of the beta parameter and meridional wind speed..etc)

Forgive me though because it's been awhile since tropical meteorology and these models were new when I was there. But, sufficed to say, at 18z the GFN - or interpolated GFS? - is also showing "somewhat" more north at 18z.

If nothing else...it was interesting to see the BAMS be ~1.5 lat S of the BAMM, which was ~1.5 lat S of the BAMD in the 3 runs. Underscoring this is that these have ever deeper mean steering depth respecitively, AND, the deepest (BAMD) is at least in the direction of none Beta Effected model runs.

It's probably not too cogent to use these observations in a meaningful correction because lets face it...deep layer steering field is weak so Beta Effect becomes large when scaling the influences. However, I still believe that because Beta's wind radii is relatively small, as she intensifies she will be less susceptible to Beta Effect; we may just see lest W tug in the models in the 00z run - if not, probably afterwards...

It is all hairy, because if I am right about this basic premise and supposition thereafter, it is entirely possible that Beta will drift more N and never make the W turn; then, we have an important full latitude trough timed for beyond 100hours, for the most part unanimously agreed. That ups the stakes farther N...
Actually, it should be noted that the LBAR is trending W in time. It wouldn't be for Beta Effects however; there would have to be something else imparting the trend..

Old Sailor

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Oct 28 2005 02:56 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Maybe you should read the NHC 11:00PM , I feel there track record been very good not like some on here.

Dave

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 28 2005 03:03 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Quote:

Maybe you should read the NHC 11:00PM , I feel there track record been very good not like some on here.

Dave

...judging by your tone with this i suspect you are some how offended??
my apologies - i merely offer an alternate point of view that incorporates factual knowledge about model design against what is observable in the field..
...nhc's track record with track guidance was never in question... but, i always read "their" information as it is adroitly superior to much of ours indeed.
...lastly, it depend on who you are critiquing with backhanded japes like "...not like some on here". most of what is offered here is conjecture, some more based in education than others but primarily a nice environment for people who are very interested in the field and want to share their ideas and opinions with others. that's a friendly reminder for you.

La Nimo

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Oct 28 2005 03:30 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Looking at the LBAR model it has shifted about 400 miles north in the last 24 hours, from tip of S Florida to Cedar Key, not doing a good job of forecasting.

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 28 2005 03:38 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Quote:

Looking at the LBAR model it has shifted about 400 miles north in the last 24 hours, from tip of S Florida to Cedar Key, not doing a good job of forecasting.

yeah i mentioned that at the end; btw: none of that was a prediction...it was just some things i were considering regarding the way the BAM group of models work....and then wondering how that compared to the lbar...that all.. like i said in that post, can't make a cogent correction using this analysis...

pesky little storm though...very small.. in fact, that is why i am suspecting nhc keeps having to move the inland time, further out in time, because it appears to me the primary steering mechanism has to be beta effects, which indeed by theory would impart a nw movement, and the beta effect is in fact less effectual for small scaled disturbances. just an interesting point for me; but, if anything beta should be growing in time and if steering feild from S to N never materializes, a WNW motion should ensue - that is, going by this philosophy herein.

HanKFranK

(User)

Fri Oct 28 2005 03:58 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

lbar? that's like using the daily show for keeping tabs on world events. entertainment purposes only.
i can loosely comprehend what tip's talking about, and don't see a problem with him tossing it out. some logic to the fact that the early models didn't see this thing coming north, and may not have a handle on the real steering... though i don't have much reason to doubt the rebridging of the ridge to the north will block beta and sling it across nic. a lot of folks on here could do with the jethro-ized version i'm sure, 'cause, well... that level of education in meteorology just isn't on every street corner.
not much to the analysis tonight. think the nhc track is fine, and won't need any fixing unless something else pops up on it's eastern flank (which isn't impossible, seen such things before). true that the 91L has pretty much evaporated, but there's still a perturbation in the atmosphere from it that can cause trouble when it starts bumping into the cyclonic windfield around beta.
wondering if it's just mental association that we're all wondering if beta advection will dominate the future of beta. next thing we'll be talking about beta decay and counting isotope ratios in the air over nicaragua. get ready with that geiger counter.
checked out a blurb from joe b earlier.. he's thinking both the first and second follow on waves can have down-the-road implications. we've already had three systems pop up in the caribbean on the edge of that ridge, wilma alpha beta, so i don't see why it can't keep turning them out as long as the pattern holds. after the amplification near the east coast during the first couple of days of november there's a call for the ridge to start edging westward. bastardi's commentary also noted the next block starting to show in europe, which could teleconnect to ridging in the eastern u.s. as we get into november. punchline is that with the wacky continuation of tropical activity this season, something else might have an opportunity to sneak in. gonna watch the coming pattern like a hawk, see if anything starts peeking.
so anyway, that's six storms in october. oddly the most active month of the season so far in terms of raw #s. july august september were five apiece. probably not shabby on the ntc activity either.. wilma was a powerful hurricane for days on end. think it'll sit second to emily in terms of days spent as a major. 882mb.. whatever.
HF 0358z28october

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 28 2005 04:06 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

...true, it may all be a moot point in terms of subtle ridge response when current e n/a trough lifts out (60 + hours or so?) anyway, yeah - indian summer signaled in the extended.. not sure what that would mean to the tropics but instincts tell us a strengthening easterly regime - always helpful when you don't just want to break a record but pulverize it... also, with such phenomenal u/a seemingly endlessly in favorable mode during the foreseeable future...no trouble with extending this show for an additional act or two; sst anomalies, not sure how much that will quantifiably play a role here but on a basic intuitive level, more heat, more storms...

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Oct 28 2005 10:03 AM

Beta...

Beta...as in. Beta watch this one closely. Still slowly intensifying, and still playing tricks on NHC and others.
I made a comment about Beta's appearance, on enhanced IR, last night. Something like a 'sunny side up' fried egg.
Beta, at this time has a heart shape.( Even on the correct axis). With a Minus90 cell right in the middle of the heaviest convection.
Beta has thrown these cell or tower spikes of and on for most of the night. Each new cell being just a bit colder than the previous cell.
http://esl.lsu.edu/AOI/AOI1_ir_loop.html

BullitNutz

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Oct 28 2005 10:15 AM

Re: Beta...

-90C? Jesus. That's pretty cold, even for deep convective tower cells, isn't it? I don't know what the "normal" range for your average TS, or even Hurricane is, but I know -90 is way out there on the end of the chart on the IR sats.

Looks like the season's rearin' up for an ending with a bang.

e: I just looked at that IR loop in the post above this one. Looks like it's TRYING to wrap around and form an eye with each of those towers. Once an eye forms, doesn't it gain greater abilties for strengthening?

Ned

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Oct 28 2005 10:34 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

Quote:

Quote:

Quote:

No coming to Tampa posts? oh wait this is another strom forgot :PP just kidding don't go into a fit but anyway Beta is going to be nothing to worry about in the US and with 69o water temps off the tampa coast i don't see much coming this way but we shall see.

Tampa? Stay tuned

Hey Ned, how long you think it will it take for the official prediciton to come through?

Dont know Bill,but when Polk gives the word,we will know Tampa is in the clear

Until then,all we can do is watch+wait.

danielw

(Moderator)

Fri Oct 28 2005 10:37 AM

Re: Beta...

Rough math here...really rough.
Std temp is 15C. Subtract 2C/ 1000ft.
90+15=105/ 2= 53,000ft roughly.

That's with out a calculator, METS, so forgive me if I'm way off.

Way Up there about 9-10 miles High!

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Fri Oct 28 2005 11:10 AM

Re: Watching a Few Areas in The Tropics

You missed my first post it was the 15/16th post on Beta. I saw the local weatherman on Cable news9 showing how she was going to briefly go north and then make a hard left hand turn over Belize, He was pointing out the Yucatan peninsula as a landmark for where she was NOT going. I had the sound down so I did not hear any qualifyers if there were any said. So I was surprised when I turned on the satellite this morning and it was still building and not moving left yet like he said. As for 69 degree waters, that has to be surface level at 3 am in the morning, because we had a very hot summer and the weather has not been cool enough to prevent the sun from radiating through the waters locally. If we had a week of cloudy skies and cold weather maybe.

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Oct 28 2005 11:15 AM

Re: Beta...

I can't believe I got up tihs early without the alarm.

Things looking a little different this morning, as far as future track. An alternative to the west turn into Nicaragua now seems like a reasonably possible outcome. However what I'm seeing is more like the situation that Wilma was in, and not a turn to the NE, but more like brushing Nicaragua/Honduras, and heading generally towards Cancun.

And what was really striking was looking at the wave train on the Western ATL and Carib sat. Still so much energy going into the Caribbean!

As to why Wilma's forecast increase in intensity didn't happen, it has been shear. It started to look like that last night, with the eye open to the northeastern side, and looking at the current vis sat loop this morning is very apparent her structure has been getting really sheared away from the ENE all night long.

meranto

(Verified CFHC User)

Fri Oct 28 2005 11:25 AM

Re: Beta...

Quote:

Rough math here...really rough.
Std temp is 15C. Subtract 2C/ 1000ft.
90+15=105/ 2= 53,000ft roughly.

That's with out a calculator, METS, so forgive me if I'm way off.

Way Up there about 9-10 miles High!

By checking the Skew-T log P diagram of the San Andreas Islands you will see that the -90 level would correspond to 16.6 km in this case, 10.3 miles, around 96 mbar of air pressure.
Not so rough after all

BullitNutz

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Oct 28 2005 11:36 AM

Re: Beta...

Was this forecast? Is this a sign of possible future explosive strengthening a la Wilma?

If it gets deeper like that, will it be affected by higher steering currents and possibly move in a different direction?

Just wondering.

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Oct 28 2005 11:51 AM

Re: Beta...

Quote:

Was this forecast? Is this a sign of possible future explosive strengthening a la Wilma?

If it gets deeper like that, will it be affected by higher steering currents and possibly move in a different direction? Just wondering.

Not with this shear.

The steering currents are not that different right now for a stronger storm, there would just be little chance of a turn to the west, but a situation more like Wilma's.

BullitNutz

(Weather Watcher)

Fri Oct 28 2005 11:55 AM

Re: Beta...

I see. Instead of cutting across Central America, it would rake the coast and probably die on the Yucatan?

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Oct 28 2005 01:20 PM

Re: Beta...

It would not die on the Yucatan, but let's not even go there until it is something that could be in the realm of possibility, which it is not, since shrinking Wilma has not even reached hurricane strength, and currently has less than optimal conditions for development.

Take a look at the sat images...the convection building up to the east of Beta is more impressive than Beta's convection. It looks like that is the tropical wave that started out at around 72W on Thurs morning, its energy also became a feeder band for Beta, last seen more or less from about 9pm last night (look on the W ATL / Carib sat) with the remnants of 91L on its heels and starting to merge into it. Meanwhile...Beta is developing another feeder band wrapping all the way overhead and then down to the right and south, back to where the warmest water was, just north of Panama.

I don't know how the interaction with the remaining tropical wave energy in the Caribbean today is going to interact with Beta. Hoping to see a post soon from Clark or HankFrank!

Beach

(Weather Guru)

Fri Oct 28 2005 01:42 PM

Re: Tropical Storm Beta and other areas.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

Looking at the link, the out flow seems to be extending to the North. It looks like it is streching North and South. I don't see any kind of "blocking" feature to the direct North. My call is it comes further North the NHC currently is calling for. Could get real exciting if it passes Honduras.

Thunderbird12

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 28 2005 01:43 PM

Re: Beta...

The big flare up of convection NE of Beta adds another fly in the ointment to the forecast. Since 91L is probably in there somewhere, there is a slight chance of something tropical developing out of that, but in any case it seems like the intense convection is causing enough outflow to disrupt Beta somewhat. The very cold convection with Beta right now is not a surprise, since systems undergoing some shear often produce colder (but asymmetric) convection. When a perfectly symmetrical system starts producing super-cold cloud tops (i.e. Wilma), then you know rapid intensification is occurring.

Steve H1

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Oct 28 2005 03:32 PM

Re: Beta...

I believe it is becoming increasingly possible that the area of disturbed weather moving through the central Caribbean now may take the ball and run into the NW Caribbean and develop, whether as its own entity or merged system with TS Beta, and become a threat north of 20N. The trough moving across the lower Mississippi valley is digging quite far south into the western GOM and seems to be in a position to pull this disturbed area and TS Beta north/north-northwestward. Beta is beginning to move a bit further north at 4 knts, and is north of the model init positions. Don't know what may come of all this, and only the Canadien makes trouble for the CONUS, but it seems that a further north solution is quite possible. If its far enuf north, it could get into the Yucatan Channel as shown in the 12z NAM. Remember yesterday the models were too strong with the ridging in the SE US, and this allowed TS Beta to come further north. If the flow remains progressive (as shown by a number of models) then anything in the NW Caribbean early next week should find a seam in the ridge to make a northward run. On the other hand, if TS Beta makes the sharp left into Nicaragua, the disturbed area may develop on its own and move to the NW. Third, Beta may hold out long enuf before making the left turn to disrupt any development of the Central Caribbean disturbance, dissipate over Nic/Hon, and allow the remnant disturbance to dissipate in the westerlies. This may be last call (we Hope) for the 2005 season, as the longer range shows (GFS) less favorable conditions north of 20N, as the westerlies bring on Fall to the east. We'll watch and see, but the Caribbean still could be trouble for the CONUS next week. Hopefully this will shut the door on what has been historic and tragic hurricane season. Cheers!!

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 28 2005 03:41 PM

Re: Beta...

Quote:

The big flare up of convection NE of Beta adds another fly in the ointment to the forecast. Since 91L is probably in there somewhere, there is a slight chance of something tropical developing out of that, but in any case it seems like the intense convection is causing enough outflow to disrupt Beta somewhat. The very cold convection with Beta right now is not a surprise, since systems undergoing some shear often produce colder (but asymmetric) convection. When a perfectly symmetrical system starts producing super-cold cloud tops (i.e. Wilma), then you know rapid intensification is occurring.

Normally, It would not surprise me if this fly in the ointment quelled just a tad during the day, for merely having taking advantage of the nocturnal cycle (where nighttime cloud-top radiative transfer augments instability in the area..etc.) However, I suspect there is a synoptic cause.

(As a side note: This presentation/looped satellite imagery almost looks like a Great Plains nocturnal MCC of all things...; also an event aided along by radiative properties of the mid/u troposphere. ...But, since this is a tropical sounding over hot water down there, whether this was aided along by radiative transfer or not would probably be a coincidence.. )

What I do find interesting is that vigorous tropical wave that entered the eastern Caribbean Sea yesterday. It has raced to approximatley 70W, while the circulation of Beta sits increasingly uncomfortably near. The llv structure of a t-wave usually bends the E/ENE background environmental flow somewhat more NE at the surface, as a given region is approached by the wave axis (for N-S oriented wave axis'), as well as accelerating the flow just tad. It may just be that the eastern semi-circular atmospheric motion of Beta, albeit weak at nearly 5 degrees separation, is interacting normally with these said NE vectors. This would induce a llv through perhaps h850 mb convergence axis - roughly colocated where we see cloud tops temperatures as cold as the Beta's core, near 75 longitude.

Unfortunately, that is a data sparse region so it is difficult to confirm this using obs to support a convergence field if one truly exists. ...So, I suppose I shall try to find other means to demonstrate this hypothesis..

In the meantime, agreed! This should be watched... The water is warm and there is a definitely anticyclonic outflow evidenced by sat, over the entire area. Favorably placing a convergence axis, incidental or not, is an intriguing proposition to say the least.

damejune2

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Oct 28 2005 04:08 PM

Re: Beta...

Typhoon Tip - Laymens terms huh....do any of these systems have a chance of hitting Fla or the other areas of the gulf coast??

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 28 2005 04:12 PM

Re: Beta...

Quote:

I believe it is becoming increasingly possible that the area of disturbed weather moving through the central Caribbean now may take the ball and run into the NW Caribbean and develop, whether as its own entity or merged system with TS Beta, and become a threat north of 20N. The trough moving across the lower Mississippi valley is digging quite far south into the western GOM and seems to be in a position to pull this disturbed area and TS Beta north/north-northwestward. Beta is beginning to move a bit further north at 4 knts, and is north of the model init positions. Don't know what may come of all this, and only the Canadien makes trouble for the CONUS, but it seems that a further north solution is quite possible. If its far enuf north, it could get into the Yucatan Channel as shown in the 12z NAM. Remember yesterday the models were too strong with the ridging in the SE US, and this allowed TS Beta to come further north. If the flow remains progressive (as shown by a number of models) then anything in the NW Caribbean early next week should find a seam in the ridge to make a northward run. On the other hand, if TS Beta makes the sharp left into Nicaragua, the disturbed area may develop on its own and move to the NW. Third, Beta may hold out long enuf before making the left turn to disrupt any development of the Central Caribbean disturbance, dissipate over Nic/Hon, and allow the remnant disturbance to dissipate in the westerlies. This may be last call (we Hope) for the 2005 season, as the longer range shows (GFS) less favorable conditions north of 20N, as the westerlies bring on Fall to the east. We'll watch and see, but the Caribbean still could be trouble for the CONUS next week. Hopefully this will shut the door on what has been historic and tragic hurricane season. Cheers!!

Careful

...last night I attempted to even hint at a N adjustment and I used a kind of tactical analysis of the BAM clusters (the biggest W motion cheerleaders of the band-wagon for days now...) and only HankFrank defended me - D'oh. Which is good, he's pretty damn bright about this stuff... Anyway, the short and skinny was that the BAMS is a llv intended use, which incorporates beta effects along with the advection field (hense the name)... The BAMM does the same, but for a deeper layer: mid-level through H850. Finally, the BAMD does so for upper level down to H850...

My issues were basically that...
a) Beta drift is more effectual on systems with bigger circumvellate (vorticity and torsional analysis is too complex so just state it as so...) and the storm "Beta" is a small circulation - though is growing in time.
b) I have a problem with relying on one camp (with Beta Effects) vs another without, alone, because obviously both apply vectors in this situation... Maybe that makes the argument a wash?

Anyway, it was just intended as an alternate way of analyzing this, and by coicidence, the worst forming model, LBAR was the biggest cheer-leader for a N pull (save the CMC for this context). Eh, not lending a much confidence... Now, hearing/seeing the NAM (the 2nd worst model for tropical events!) being N is....unfortunatley not doing much more to change the opinion... Maybe, finally, another more trustworth run will shift... Let's see: Nope... Again, only the LBAR and the CLIPER (12z) say N... Funny, they are verifying better on these positions this morning... And of course, the 00z CMC refuses to back off from striking Florida in a few days.. Yet, I suppose if we have to throw another entity (75W) into the fray....nothing is going to be correct!!

Still...Like HankFrank said and I agree... I can't get over the fact that after this trough lifts out that is currently over E N/A, heights should rebound near the Gulf somewhat, larger, lesser....

Oh, you want more headaches? Ok, well, a larger ridge response would impart a 'blocky' type regime and supply the (finally, phew) the W motion that everyone is just dying to see happen... While lesser would probably be negligibe in effecting anything but a slower motion. And, either form when looking at the global ensembles is very dern close to equally probablisitically weighted toward an occurrence. So, when you give mention to yesterdays models, some of those ensembles were actually weaker than the ridge that was verifying, so yes and no, but moreover, it has to be an uncertainty how this spatial evolution really plays a role in effecting storm (or storm"s") motion.

Anyway, I do agree on the interesting feature near 75W... Very interesting events down there to watch today!!

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 28 2005 04:24 PM

Re: Beta...

Quote:

Typhoon Tip - Laymens terms huh....do any of these systems have a chance of hitting Fla or the other areas of the gulf coast??

Hi...sorry...
my own opinion is the threat is minimal at this time...
but...this is one of those times where i wish there was a crystal ball...
thing is, in the simplest terms, the situation "appears" to be getting more confusing this morning... i'll just number the considerations in no particular order of importance.
1) potentially another system near 75w; if that occurs in earnest, all bets on track guidance are off because obviously, it is so close in proximity to Beta that they'd likely interact in some form or another.
2) this looks very interesting on satellite but ....looks can be deceiving as we are forced to learn over and over again.
3) it is unclear how much ridge will develop near the upper gulf coast in lieu of troughing lifting out in eastern n/a over the next 72 hours. if that ridge is a stronger fixture, than you know it would be more of a block, which could impart a west component to the track. if it is a weaker after-glow of the trough, it would probably cause a little more than a stall to perhaps subtle westward drift.
4) "1)" + "2)" +"3)" = hign uncertainty.
5 there is an even large scale consideration in the synoptics of the hemisphere right now... (Are you familiar with indices??) basically, signals suggest a substantial patter change, one that should feature a stronger presents of the subtropical sw atlantic basin ridge out in time (beyond 72 hours); or at least one building w at low latitudes.. This could also exert an influence on track because it could nudge the whole playing field w in time, regardless of the smaller scale influencers surrounding cyclone interactions (should that take place) and ridge strengths..etc.

...in the end, with everything here to consider...(and I'm sure i've left some out)...the odds of any one location (even the size of a state in this case) cannot possibly be ascertained with any certainty at this time - which i'm sure you're ok with.. but, this is uniquely uncertain... any "cone" of probability is probably more like a gigantic semi-circle that is essential W - N - E, though not S.

Robert

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Oct 28 2005 04:34 PM

Wilma wilma

Well i got power , telephone,and internet back this morning. For me Wilma is the 5th Eye i have been through in the past 10 years, and the 2nd major hurricane. Back in my river in stuart florida we had a storm surge of 6 feet becuse willma came from the west. Wilma made a jog south when making landfall in south west florida and crossed over to the east coast in less then 2 hours bye the time the western eyewall was on land the eastern eyewall was back over the warm waters of the gulf stream so wilma i belive did not weeken at all. nhc conservativly made her a 105
when crossing my area but pressure only went up 6 millibars and was 956 millibars up from 950 when it hit sw florida with 125mph winds. the first eyewall was weak my anometor only reported winds sustained at 70 gusting to 100, but when the second wall came winds went from 25mph to 95 sustained gusting to over 100
then the real weather hit my boat shook like mad the gusts where unlike anything expirienced in the eye walls of jeanne, or frances winds are now 93,95,94,96,105,99,100,104,110 then it got even worse a huge gust that seemed to last an eternity came. i am now hiding afrraid objects are slaming into the boat as if someone is hitting it with a baseball bat i look up at the wind gauge it now peaks out at 133mph then the wind
calms and drops back to 95 then another gust comes through just like the one before it i go to look at the gauge and its now reading 0 the cups on the anometor are gone the hole spinny part is intact but the cups are gone.

This storm was all as bad as hurricane jeanne if not way worse. building that didnt flinch in frances or jeanne were completley destroyed in wilma in talking to people after, evryone agreed that this storm was the worst of three wind wise with the exception of jeanne having a much higher storm surge around 8.2feet and a pressure 3 millibars lower.

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 28 2005 04:44 PM

Re: Wilma wilma

cool story... my actual hands on experience iwth hurricanes is limited to 1, gloria in 1986.. nothing like what you described however. gloria caused a significant wind event across southern new england but was less than the bigger events we've had up this way in lore...such as 1938, which gust to 186mph at an official nws observation post sw of boston. anyway, gloria was fun for the loud roaring the preceded each gust... where i was living at that time was heavily boreal, so there were the loud pops and cracks constantly going off within as concophony amid the roar of the winds... it was all over in just 5 hours ( not atypical for events striking new england as they move so incredibly fast). we lost power for 5 days and most places had in back in 3 weeks - i think.. the storm could have been a lot worse for us because gloria had max sustained winds of 155 while in transit in the atlantic, but as it neared the bahamas, it weakened to a category 3...than 2 near the carolina outer banks, then 1 as it cross long island... but, it was moving so fast, 45 mph, that adding this momentum to even tropical storm force wind gust became a formidable experience; still, could have been much worse if that odd weakening near the bahamas did not ultimately spare new england...

...wilma was screaming along when she got to the eastern part of the peninsula.. i believe she was moving better that 25mph at that time and accelerating... if you were in the southern/southeastern semi-circle of her circulation, this translational velocity needed to be added to the wind action... this likely augmented some of her "real" strengths. in any event, must have been a strange combination of terror, awe, and fascination as an experience!

JMII

(Weather Master)

Fri Oct 28 2005 04:46 PM

Re: Wilma wilma

Quote:

This storm was all as bad as hurricane jeanne if not way worse. building that didnt flinch in frances or jeanne were completley destroyed in wilma in talking to people after, evryone agreed that this storm was the worst of three wind wise

My boss who lives right on the intracoast in Jupiter agrees. This is even more amazing considering Wilma came clear across the state. Granted the flat, wet Everglade don't slow hurricanes down much, but clearly Wilma was packing a strong punch.

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 28 2005 04:50 PM

Re: Wilma wilma

has anyone taken note of the interesting gyre that is tumbling along 10N near the Islands?? What is that? Is that vestigially related to that deep area of convection and associated tropical wave in the central atlantic 4 days ago??

hmm...it's probably nothing but really cool to watch turning on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html... there's also another feature like this though apparently weak ene in the atlantic.

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Fri Oct 28 2005 04:51 PM

Re: Wilma wilma

Reason the storm surge wasnt as great as Jeanne or Francais was due to it coming form the SW. Im sure you knew that though and were just stating the point. Also everyone that I talked to also said the same about the impact of Wilma over the 2 last year that went near PB and South Florida.
Beta shows great outflow this afternoon and is a strong TS but Im not sure its a hurricane yet as the center appears to be on the northern edge of the convention. Not exactly sure why this is,,,maybe due to the fact there are lower pressures its ENE with the disturbance over the central carribean making it want to tug that way. In general with Beta wanting to go NE towards the weakness and a ridge building over central amercia, its in a tug of war pretty much.
Anyways the models are coming more in line with a agreement (although I havnt seen the GFDL) on taking Beta NW over the next 2-3 days and making landfall near Nic-Hond boarder then bringing it into the NW carribean near 18N and 85W sometime sunday night. A strong trough is forecasted to build (simular to last weekend) over the central US and into the gulf...Anything there should push it towards Florida or across Cuba towards the bahamas during the middle of next week....The CMC model is usually off like the LBAR on the globals but does have consistancy. The Ukmet ( which did the best with Wilma) also has been consistant on a track NW then N towards the gulf and now even the GFS shows (after weakning on landfall) emerging into the NW Carribean then NE towards SW Florida.
First off we would want to see more consistancy and consolidation into the models for the next couple runs and also the exact near term movement will have an affect on strength and direction inthe long run.
With this trough digging into the SE gulf right now.. I dont see much of a west turn into the Nicaragua coastline but I do think it will come very close or if not make landfall near the SE tip of Honduras. Then a movement (quicker then Wilma) N towards the Gulf or Cuba during Monday.
Some might say about Wilma turning up the NW carribean waters and the trough this week cooling off the Gulf.....yes it did have some affect but it wont weaken the system anymore then it is......I do suspect shear to develop over the Gulf with the trough but then again it will be moving (if at all there ) with the flow.
Overall anything could happen in the near term with Beta so we dont know whats going to happen more then we did 12 hrs ago.....Next 24-48hrs will determine if this is a threat to Florida.

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Oct 28 2005 04:59 PM

Re: Wilma wilma

Wow, you live on the boat!

You know there must be something about anemometers and wind gusts over a certain amount. Maybe they are rated to only a certain level of windspeed. When Katrina hit, Pascagoula's anemometer stopped pretty early on Monday morning...it gusted to 137mph before higher gusts ripped it apart.

Scott -- the reason Beta's convection is to the SW...it is getting sheared like no tomorrow.

emackl

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Oct 28 2005 05:28 PM

Re: Wilma wilma

Wait a minute Scott, your confusing me. I just checked this board to see what was happening. I thought Beta was going into Nic and dying! All the models I find have it that way. Except the LBAR which is always wrong anyway...LOL! Then I read your post. Are you saying the new models have it more of a threat to the South Coast? Honestly, I hope I read your post wrong. I am so tired of storms. I'm ready for winter.

Jackie

scottsvb

(Weather Master)

Fri Oct 28 2005 05:54 PM

Re: Wilma wilma

Yeah I guess your reading it wrong cause I just gave ya some speculation if it does go out into the NW carribean. Right now we dont know more then we did 12 hrs ago. I feel it will go into the NIC-Hond boarder then (maybe) emerge into the NW carribean. For now,, who knows.

craigm

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Oct 28 2005 06:17 PM

Re: Wilma wilma

I know one thing for sure, very few people in SE FL are paying attention to the tropics right now. This would be a huge psychological blow ala Frances & Jeanne. I know the Lbar doesn't do very well but it did have the general trend with Wilma, just to far north. The NHCA98E bothers me more. Have power at work (downtown West Palm Beach) same grid as water plant I think. Tower Crane came down about 4 blocks from here, just missed a condo.No power at home in Stuart.

trinibaje

(Weather Guru)

Fri Oct 28 2005 06:23 PM

Re: Wilma wilma

scott reading your post just gave me a migrane

twizted sizter

(Weather Guru)

Fri Oct 28 2005 06:37 PM

Re: Wilma wilma

To really get your head pounding look at the 12z runs of the CMC,GFS,& UKMET..CMC & Ukmet have been consistent...didn't see the 6z run of GFS so I don't know if this scenario is a 1st or not.

Take them with a grain of salt...although nothing surprises me about this hurricane season anymore.

Thunderbird12

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 28 2005 06:48 PM

Re: Wilma wilma

I agree with Margie... Beta is definitely feeling some shear from the east, regardless of what the shear analysis might show. The convective tops from the outer band to the east are blowing towards the center, which is not a healthy sign for a tropical system. Slow development is still possible while that continues, but it won't take off unless the shear is lessened at some point.

Currently, it appears the system is being gently tugged to the north. However, as the shortwave to its north passes well to the NE, the steering from that feature will cease. The stronger-than-expected easterly flow at some level that is shearing the system presently may help to push it west after that.

Of the more reliable models (LBAR and NHC98E are not reliable), only the CMC models shows a definite movement to the north into the Gulf. The 12Z UKMET is further north than the GFS/GFDL, but still brings the system west along the Honduran coast. It seems to lose the system after that, so it is hard to say where it would go from there. The bottom line here is that if it turns west into Nicaragua, then it will not affect the U.S.. If the center gets north of the Honduran coastline, then all bets are off.

A recon plane should be into the system soon to give us the first true reading of the current intensity and structure.

twizted sizter

(Weather Guru)

Fri Oct 28 2005 06:54 PM

Re: Wilma wilma

Recons been in...just waiting on the VDM.

ETA>>>991 mb...good banding...47kt ne quad.

Thunderbird12

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 28 2005 06:58 PM

Vortex

URNT12 KNHC 281854
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 28/18:30:00Z
B. 13 deg 10 min N
081 deg 04 min W
C. 850 mb 1368 m
D. 40 kt
E. 66 deg 010 nm
F. 147 deg 047 kt
G. 063 deg 015 nm
H. 991 mb
I. 16 C/ 1527 m
J. 21 C/ 1523 m
K. 19 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 0126A BETA OB 11
MAX FL WIND 47 KT NE QUAD 18:25:10 Z
GOOD BANDING

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Oct 28 2005 06:59 PM

Re: Wilma wilma

It's in...and Beta a little healthier than I had thought (991mb, 5deg temp diff, recon comment "good banding").

Revisiting Beta's convection woes...I think it is also the proximity of the tropical wave, affecting development, in a way that is not clearly visible on the satellite, since all wind interaction can't really be captured in that way (visible from sat imagery), and not just the shear.

Also that high that formed early this morning has gotten a little stronger (it is now around 16N74W), and that is what is pushing the easterlies into Beta and also keeping the convection from the tropical wave rotating away to the SE.

More and more chance of Beta moving N and just grazing Nic/Hon area.

Thunderbird12

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 28 2005 07:05 PM

Re: Wilma wilma

Subsidence from the convection in the wave to the NE may also be adversely affecting Beta, or at least may have adversely affected it earlier when the convection was closer to Beta and more intense.

The recon fix is slightly NE of the 18Z position estimate and also seems to be a little NE of where most models were initializing the storm. It still needs to get above 15N before it would stand a chance of missing Nicaragua.

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Oct 28 2005 07:11 PM

Re: Wilma wilma

I don't think it is going to miss it...but remember the NE corner is flat, so if it goes over that way and keeps going north, not too much of an impact.

HanKFranK

(User)

Fri Oct 28 2005 07:35 PM

take

i'm going to keep hedging on beta moving onshore nicaragua. i think it'll do it in spite of whatever else may be going on around it... too much model consensus showing the westward turn, and there already seems to be a bend nw in the track today. should move onshore further north, closer to the honduras/nicaragua border, and move west in such a fashion as to remain onshore and weaken. may get gummed up and stop just a little inland as there's a chance that low pressure will try to form further east and northeast with the lesser shear and wave energy being banked into the eastern edge of beta's envelope. like some have said and even a disco or two mentioned, some degree of binary interaction is likely, whether the other feature develops or not. beta has had a hard time strengthening so far, so this may have already happened to a degree (91L to the east perhaps kinking the trades up and weakening convergence around beta). the models are showing less of an energy hand-off to the mid latitudes now, so whatever ends up in the nw caribbean, whether a vestige of 91L or beta or perhaps something else entirely... may get stuck up there for a day or three.. waiting on another amplification in the westerlies to pick it up. i'd say that the best bet right now is that beta moves inland and that the feature up there doesn't quite have what it takes to develop, but there's still a chance of another feature forming, or beta getting far enough north to lodge in the nw caribbean.
the wave near 45w needs to be watched for days down the road. it's going to be moving into the caribbean in a couple of days under favorable upper-air conditions, and already has a decent gyre and occasional spotty convection. the globals track it though none are developing it, but i'd suspect that in the first few days of november we'll have at least an invest out of this one as well.
i'm not going to sound the trumpet for the season ending any time soon. we're in SOI positive which favors stronger global trades and an enhanced subtropical ridge. with the blocking setting up in eastern europe that the accuweather guys were talking about yesterday, it figures that ridging near the east coast will start setting up shop in the coming week or two. such a thing tacked onto the existing subtropical ridge which has been keeping the caribbean active would perhaps open the gate for any caribbean mischief to come harass the u.s. (in reduced late-season form, of course). florida needs to keep an eyeball on the caribbean for the next week or two, at least.
HF 1935z28october

emackl

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Oct 28 2005 07:41 PM

Re: take

OK, feeling much better. Until that last sentence anyway...LOL! Thanks HF

Old Sailor

(Storm Tracker)

Fri Oct 28 2005 07:43 PM

Re: take

Nice input Frank, agree with the way you are thinking , till Beta makes that turn West still could be a problem more north , hope not.

Dave

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 28 2005 08:34 PM

Devil's advocate

well...it's like the battle of the under dogs and the power hogs in the 18z run...
the typically poorer performing NAM, CLIPER, and LBAR now to varying degrees (errr, impetus on "varying") keep beta off-shore of the nic/hon nexus... meanwhile, all other models, which range from typically somewhat better to stellar by comparison, they're all happily clustered around the westward track... 2002 patriots?

synoptic reasoning isn't changing save details in any alarming way so in the end, it will probably (for me) come down to the amplitude of ridging n - what's new - and less on those westward track philosophies, which seem to be exercising the might of beta drift perhaps too myopically. what other reason is there for them having failed to turn w now for i think it is 18 hours worth of runs - check that, but i'm fairly certain they are belated and one must wonder why. ...just looking for clues to answer, and the differences seem to be related to model design.

i think it safe to say that the trough currently scraping by to the n is guilty of inducing the n tug in the last 24 hours, which it is important to note, was not seen by the w tended model camp of runs. that should mean something significant if your in the business of correcting..et al. basically, we can conclude with a certain air of confidence that if there is impetus to allow it out of the deep latitudes, it's gonna take it... that sort of charges the w moving camp of runs with the responsibility of being damn sure that whatever will induce that w motion, is enough. probably will be, ultimately, but they've failed in the responsibility for 3 time intervals now.. but as a cop-out compromise, somewhere between the CMC and the BAM runs will probably suffice.

that's bad bad bad... the thing is...such a trajectory is a floody one... not enough to make it a non-entity so heavy rain/slow mover plagues. just a possibility.

in the end, (for me) beta has about 18 more hours before whatever ridge expression nne east begins to re-assert an influence...until that time, i don't see really how this can establish the long awaited w motion.. as noted in an earlier discussion, there is a correlation between the size of a circulation and the amount of beta effect actually effects the motion of a tc. that being said...beta's been a small circulation to this point; it just may be that those other runs, which do carry beta parameterizations as a component (particularly talking about the BAM cluster) are biased in that regard and thus too apt to a w motion...

don't worry you floridians! i am by no means using this to imply that florida or the se u.s. will or won't be impacted.. i'm simply looking at the w motion guidance and asking 'why'... i could blindly follow the model solutions but i don't see the steering depth for borderline TS/cat 1 hurricane, really in a hurry to do that w motion until after 18 hours, and even then it is not really a very strong implication...

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Oct 28 2005 09:16 PM

Re: Devil's advocate

Could someone look at the Carib sat and tell me if that is a low pressure rolling up the NE coast of South America towards the Caribbean, and explain the significance?

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 28 2005 09:25 PM

Re: Devil's advocate

Quote:

Could someone look at the Carib sat and tell me if that is a low pressure rolling up the NE coast of South America towards the Caribbean, and explain the significance?

Hi Margie... It is indeed a closed-circulation...of what?? It's got all the halmarks of an upper level cold core low, in that these granular showery patterns are loosely strewn about it's axis, and, as I've been watching them occasionally today, they seemed to increase with diurnal heating. The other thing, the visible imagery shows almost a flat non-eventful trade wind in the llv's, also as is usually the look when we have a lower latitude cool core features.

The only trouble is, what was the origin?? I'm perplexed with that, because I watched this feature come from the deeper tropics - no if-and-or-buts about that and in fact, it was previously associated with a very deep convection in the cenral Atlantic near 10N Wow, ay? That I'm aware, NHC hasn't given any mention to it so we can assume they must know but don't see it as even interesting enough to mention? I think it is just fascinating anyway. The thing is, there is an interesting looking wave ENE of there...

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Oct 28 2005 09:34 PM

Re: Devil's advocate

That's not what I'm wanting to know.

I read the TWD and this is what it had to say (they tend to mainly be observational):

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 10N57W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INLAND SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO AT LEAST 20N AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 52W AND 63W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM I9N52W TO 9N63W.

It just appears to me that it is barreling into the Caribbean and already pulling some moisture from the tropical wave+91L. I want to know the implications of how it could interact with the tropical wave and the high that is over the central Caribbean. Remember there is no vorticity currently at all with the tropical wave.

BTW on the NRL site, they have switched the image of 91L to the other tropical wave in the central Caribbean, so I'm guessing that 91L has been mostly absorbed there, but NRL is still going to refer to it as 91L?

I think the Caribbean should put up a sign at the Lesser Antilles that says, "LOT FULL." I don't think we can fit anything else into the Caribbean at this time.

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 28 2005 09:47 PM

Re: Devil's advocate

Quote:

That's not what I'm wanting to know.

I read the TWD and this is what it had to say (they tend to mainly be observational):

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NEAR 10N57W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS LOW CENTER COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND INLAND SECTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 4N TO AT LEAST 20N AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE TO THE NORTH BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 5N TO 12N BETWEEN 52W AND 63W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM I9N52W TO 9N63W.

It just appears to me that it is barreling into the Caribbean and already pulling some moisture from the tropical wave+91L. I want to know the implications of how it could interact with the tropical wave and the high that is over the central Caribbean. Remember there is no vorticity currently at all with the tropical wave.

BTW on the NRL site, they have switched the image of 91L to the other tropical wave in the central Caribbean, so I'm guessing that 91L has been mostly absorbed there, but NRL is still going to refer to it as 91L?

Oh...I see... well, in that case.. not sure what the implications will be but in the hierarchy of atmospheric phenomenon, believe it or not, .the u/a low will always win... If it barrels along and tumbles into the western caribbean, it would be shredding the convective elements and absorbing them into the circulation core of the u/a vortex, as well as damping out the more typical upper level wave structure in the atmosphere - speaking in terms of the central Caribbean wave that is....

As for Beta, with more stowed momentum and development she'd fight off the impending shear quite a bit but would eventually subcumb by being attenuated until it was too weak to fight any more and it too would get gobbled alive; that is, should the unlikely occur with the u/a low, that it would careen smartly into Beta's vicinity...

...the models do not really show this feature too well and so it is unclear if/what/when/how it will interact with any activity further down the line. However, with a deep layer subtropical ridge N and NW tending to gain amplitude, it would probably tend this feature on a continued W or perhaps slightly WNW heading.. It would interesting really, because it would likely then have to slow down near the Puerto Rico to Cuban Archipelago area and spin for awhile - if not spin down.

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 28 2005 10:01 PM

Re: Devil's advocate

Quote:

I think the Caribbean should put up a sign at the Lesser Antilles that says, "LOT FULL." I don't think we can fit anything else into the Caribbean at this time.

yeah...i think no kidding! wow... but, you know...if i didn't know any better i'd suggest this feature isn't moving as fast as it was earlier in the day..so, the assertion about stalling much w or wnw would have to be in peril. anyway, it is interestingly not being considered if you ask me (i think you may feel the same way?) because, there is always the potential that it could acquire subtropical, then tropical characteristics if left to spin unperturbed over very warm oceanic heat content for awhile... just a thought.

Random Chaos

(Weather Analyst)

Fri Oct 28 2005 10:02 PM

More model questions

I'm wondering what the AF1 model is. I can't find it on any sites that go through what the models are, and I'm curious given that Beta has been ignoring most of the model tracks as it drifts about off South America heading slowly nw to nnw.

I'm asking becuase AF1I is tracking Beta north toward Cuba and intensifying it well beyond the other models, bringin Beta to a 110kt hurricane in 72 hours: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png

--RC

Margie

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Fri Oct 28 2005 10:29 PM

Re: Devil's advocate

Quote:

in the hierarchy of atmospheric phenomenon, believe it or not, .the u/a low will always win...it would be shredding the convective elements and absorbing them into the circulation core of the u/a vortex, as well as damping out the more typical upper level wave structure in the atmosphere - speaking in terms of the central Caribbean wave that is....

As for Beta, with more stowed momentum and development she'd fight off the impending shear quite a bit but would eventually subcumb by being attenuated until it was too weak to fight any more and it too would get gobbled alive

Well that is an appropriately grisly scenario for a Halloween storm LOL.

Thanks for the info, I saw that and thought hmmm...figured it was something to follow up on.

typhoon_tip

(Meteorologist)

Fri Oct 28 2005 10:42 PM

Re: More model questions

Quote:

I'm wondering what the AF1 model is. I can't find it on any sites that go through what the models are, and I'm curious given that Beta has been ignoring most of the model tracks as it drifts about off South America heading slowly nw to nnw.

I'm asking becuase AF1I is tracking Beta north toward Cuba and intensifying it well beyond the other models, bringin Beta to a 110kt hurricane in 72 hours: http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png

--RC

dude ...i don't know what to tell you but according to google, AF1 is the number 1 model representing Michigan in some kind of a beauty pagent preliminary round... i think her name was Afany...total babe.

ah, yeah, anyway...that's about the gyst of what's available readily on line..

one thing our field is lacking is an easy to find ready to use reference guide to EVERY model ever created and what that model uses as far as physical methodology for processing...

it's just very cryptic in nature, to the point where it almost seems no one wants you to know them

anyway, i'm sure you could google this, too, so no sense in me wasting anymore time.

frankly, i didn't know either when you asked, which sparked my own curiosity. but, i was summarily frustrated to the point of being actually angry that i couldn't find it... my guess, because it is so hard to find it is either a) the best model in the universe and is never wrong and is intended not to be known so that a secret cadre of weather thinkers will always appear like geniuses.... or...
b) it's the suckiest model ever and therefore, it has never gotten enough notice for an official write-up; and therefore makes you wonder why it even is being represented on sites such as http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png ....or...
c) they simply forgot the model exists and it is run by accident because no one ever bothered to clear function calls from the master algorithm that actually runs the stupid thing! argh

...believe me, i have the education to explain the ups and downs of using this phantom tool, provided who ever created it also had the foresight to imagine that people might want to know how it is run... I'm sorry, that's just stupid.

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