MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Wed Aug 09 2006 07:19 AM
Nothing Immediate

Update - Sunday - 08/13, 2:30PM (EDT)
Two new Invest areas are now being monitored. Invest 92L entering the eastern Caribbean Sea - primarily an upper level feature with a weak low level circulation, and Invest 93L - a weak circulation along a front off the southeast coast. Both features have a long way to go - just something to watch for now. The Skeetobyte model plots have been updated below.
ED

Original Post
There is nothing immediately set up for development right now. After Chris last week, things have been stirring, but nothing is getting together.

The system known as 91L has lost a lot of the convection it once had and is entering an area that isn't good for development, so it's more likely not to become anything, but still it's worth watching for a few days. This system is a bit more interesting this morning, but it has been going up and down for a while now. With the area ahead of it being as unfavorable as it is, development isn't all that likely.

The wave near the Bahamas isn't in a good spot to develop, and another system in the Eastern Atlantic isn't organzied enough to consider for development in the next few days, but may happen later.

This year has been quite a contrast to last year, in that systems have been slow to develop, and when they do, not holding together or becoming very strong. Lets hope this trend continues for the rest of the season.

AL922006

AL932006
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system

Various Links:
NRL Monterrey
RAMSDIS Satellite Imagery
NASA GHCC Satellite Imagery
Skeetobite's Page
SFMWD Page
MOE Models from FSU
Recent NCEP Model Runs
ECMWF Model


bhnole
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Aug 09 2006 08:00 AM
Re: Nothing Immediate

For a system that has been on life support for days now, 91L had an impressive convective blowup overnight.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

Will be interesting to see if it can hold it's convection today.


HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Aug 09 2006 08:03 AM
Re: Nothing Immediate

i'll lead off by saying that for some reason 91L is flaring again this morning. couldn't see any cumulus lines last night or that earlier vortex... but there's still turning in the low level wind field down there today, 20kt sfc winds out of the convection, and ambient pressures 1011-1012 mb. i don't get this thing.
it is a little closer to the upper low to its northwest. guessing the flare is being aided by diffluence as the low is trying to pull away... but 91L has stayed on a track further south and faster than anticipated. times could easily get tougher ahead.
HF 1202z09august


Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 09 2006 08:50 AM
Re: Nothing Immediate

Yes i see that as well HF, there is definitely a LL circulation underneath that convection, albeit to the north side of the circulation (don't know if there's still southerly shear). But this is running south of some of the model projection. Maybe NRL was quick to take it off the Invest chart. Still is chugging along. Cheers!!

MapMaster
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 09 2006 09:36 AM
Re: HUH?

I am with you HF....seems like we are back in the old NHC cycle I have talked about here before...as soon as NHC says it will develop, it doesn't...as soon as they write it off, it develops!

Is it developing???Hmmmm

I was the one saying that 91L was going down, and that seemed born out last night. What I see this morning is NOT what I expected to see based on the language on the TWO last night and this morning!

It's a conundrum, which just shows that little saying about laymen, scientists and God on the bottom of ...who is it that that puts that at the bottom of their posts?--is correct, of course! We guess, scientists predict...God commands! We can only watch the results.

In this case, we are all just watching...figuring out what will happen next, c'est impossible, fellow travellers!

MM


allan
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 09 2006 10:00 AM
Re: HUH?

Nicole Mitchel of the Hurricane Hunters says there flying into it to see if there's another LLC. Which there may be. If thats so you deffinatly can call it a deppression. Now when it hits the Islands if they find winds higher than that should be upgraded. Funny... when I stop watching the storm it blows up again. Is'nt that weird. This blow up is the most biggest and impressive one i've seen on the invest yet.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rb.html


LaVidaCyclone
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Aug 09 2006 10:03 AM
Re: HUH?

I see that 91L is below the SAL. Has this always been the case, or is this a new development?

Current SAL imagery:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/winds/m8split.html


NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 09 2006 10:03 AM
Re: HUH?

One of the NRL sites says 30 knots and 1009 mb this morning. The other site isnt showing 91L at all anymore. NHC says it is diminishing but has recon set for 2 pm today. Strange....

sara33
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 09 2006 10:17 AM
Re: HUH?

When looking at the GFDL there is a "fine mesh grid" for 91L.

It reads Min. Pressure 1010.9
Max 950 MB Wind 34.9 knots

Is this an accurate reading of the pressure & wind speed right now? Just curious. I have never been able to quite understand this one.
Thanks everyone!
Christine

that's just what the GFDL model is initialized with on that run. probably not too far removed from reality. mind that those winds would be above the surface. -HF


CoalCracker
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 09 2006 10:32 AM
Re: HUH?

Latest TAFB Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Danger Area shows possible development of 91L within the next 36 hours. T numbers increased from too weak to 1. Should be interesting to see what the next TWO has to say and what the status of today's scheduled recon will be. Persistent little system.

HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Aug 09 2006 10:34 AM
Re: HUH?

the recon was scheduled yesterday. when the plan for tomorrow comes out, it will have a tagline saying whether they called it off for today. sometimes they do that, but probably not this time.
the buoy 91L passed south of this morning has been reporting 25kt winds at intervals. it is showing a few signs of life, but has done this before and then abated. all it would really take right now is a confirmed closed low to be a depression, but hard to see more than a weak system out of this if anything... for at least the next few days.
HF 1434z09august


Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 09 2006 10:35 AM
Re: Nothing Immediate

Why is the area 91L is entering not good for development? And why is it stilll keeping its convection? What is the number one reason
storms are not developing (in relation to last year)? Is it my imagination or is 91L moving along at a pretty good pace?


allan
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 09 2006 10:39 AM
Re: Nothing Immediate

Quote:

Why is the area 91L is entering not good for development? And why is it stilll keeping its convection? What is the number one reason
storms are not developing (in relation to last year)? Is it my imagination or is 91L moving along at a pretty good pace?




The area that 91L was projected to move in is not favorable but the center is way south then they thought. Should be that little swirl just left of the blossom. It's very interesting. I think instead of finding TD4 they will find Debby with 40mph winds by 2 p.m.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html


NewWatcher
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 09 2006 10:43 AM
RECON NOT CANCELLED

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 225 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS
MORNING...AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
REACH THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR STORM HAS FORMED. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.


HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Aug 09 2006 10:56 AM
something immediate?

mind, even if this thing develops.. it's scraping along the very edge of a higher shear zone. allan is right.. if there' s a center it may have reformed early this morning (or somehow stayed concealed under the outflow decks from convective bursts last night), it is staying further to the south.
the forward speed has been increasing since yesterday and is now exceeding 20mph. this would be dangerously fast for a weak tropical cyclone. the trades are pushing it so fast that it helps increase storm relative shear and makes it difficult to remain closed.
we've seen waves in the past come barrelling into the islands (usually in july and the first half of august) during synoptic patterns like these, generating t.s. force winds but having only a vortmax aloft and a sharp windshift at the surface. 91L may be one of those... while it clearly had a closed surface low 24-72 hours ago, back then it was only doing 10-15 mph.
the upper air progs don't look very good for it. there is diffluence aloft, but it just under the base of a nike-swoosh shaped TUTT section that is weakening and reorienting as a sharp north-south upper trough... if it were just sliding along slowly this feature would likely reorient in front of 91L... not affecting it too harshly. over the next 2-3 days ridging should increase in the northern caribbean and this would create a favorable environment for the system. it has to run through an upper trough at high speed during the meanwhile though, so it's doubtful that a closed system would remain over the weekend, regardless.
gut tells me that even if recon goes in and finds a closed system or even a tropical storm... that it will tear right back open during the next day or two.
HF 1456z09august


allan
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 09 2006 11:28 AM
Re: Nothing Immediate

I think I found the possible center which from here looks totaly covered with convection. It may not be the center but it's possible. Not saying it is but it's possible
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html
You see the swirl in the center left part of the blob? It's in the blob but still hard to see. Gonna have to wait and see. Though thats where my opinion of the circulation is.. Anyone agree?


stormtiger
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 09 2006 11:46 AM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

Ahead of 91L is some pretty bad stuff.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI1_wv_loop.gif

If 91L stays weak and blast under all the upper level crap ahead and gets to an area with moister air like in the Western Carribean, there could be trouble. I can't see a TD of a Ts making it that far.

The flow is more zonal than yesterday and once again for the third straight morning 91L looks like a player, but I suspect another decline after lunch (CST). It does appear more circular and the storms are forming around what we suspect to be the center, but there is still dry air getting into the circulation and some shear.

cooltiger


Randrew
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 09 2006 11:52 AM
Debby

Navy has 91L now at 35kts...40mph. Pressure 1000. Recon is the only thing NHC will wait for before classifying this as Debby. Should go right to TS status if all this holds true for the flight today.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...mp;STYLE=tables


HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Aug 09 2006 11:53 AM
barbados obs

over the next couple of hours.. right around the time recon is supposed to get there... the obs from the buoy east of and from barbados will probably tell us whether the system is more than a feisty wave or not. based on pressure trends and how little the winds are turning at buoys, i'd bet it isn't closed. wouldn't bet the farm yet, though.
HF 1553z09august


allan
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 09 2006 11:57 AM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

Well looking at the latest satellite images. So broad, may just be a powerfull wave for now. Thought it would be something else but new images shows not much of a circulation. It is a huge blob though. Has not weakened yet. We'll see what the Hurricane Hunters find later at 2 p.m. I could be wrong, it may be something but by the way it looks right now, pretty sick deppression if so.

stormtiger
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 09 2006 12:38 PM
Re: Is the process starting again?

Is 91L beginning to have the t storms blown off to the NE? Let's see if the system loses the TS again this afternoon.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

That has been the trend for the last two days now.

Right now on the visibles I see a strong wave being sheared.

cooltiger


ltpat228
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 09 2006 12:43 PM
Florida

What's that big counter-clockwise swirly mass east of Florida's coast?
It's starting to rain now and looks like it's gonna be a gusty and wet afternoon!


wxman007
(Meteorologist)
Wed Aug 09 2006 12:43 PM
Recon..

Ignore this post...it was a regurgitated Chris Supp.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 09 2006 12:54 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

I dont know if thats a error on the NRL site for 1000mb pressure...I dont find anything near that....but I do see winds in a bouy near 35mph....also a ship reported winds near TS strength......so this could be a TD by 5pm and even Debby if recon confirms any pressure of 1000mb or even 1005mb....also tonight we will see if convection rebuilds.......I wouldnt of anticipated this generation until maybe Jamaica...but the upperlow to its NW and ssts near 84dg has helped with the nighttimed durin....

Long term if this system develops is uncertain as models are having a hardtime ( like Chris) in wanting to keep this....maybe drier air moves into the western carribean or a trough develops in the mid layers between upper lows.....for now... lets see what recon finds and see what happens tonight before we can speculate on how strong or anything this gets.


Major7
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Aug 09 2006 01:01 PM
Re: Nothing Immediate *DELETED*

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Aug 09 2006 01:02 PM
Re: Recon..

would think it a little early for recon to have gotten a vortex msg out. sure isn't posted in the nhc recon messages... still old obs from chris (though it doesn't update that quickly, come to think of it...).
surface obs don't really suggest it is closed, though convection is still increasing around it and starting to organize in a crude sort of radial banding pattern. it's facing some long odds, but odds are based on what should happen, not on what is going to happen.
HF 1702z09august

000
URNT11 KNHC 091610
97779 15404 40169 62900 70100 99005 68//4 /5763
RMK AF302 01DDA INVEST OB 01
;
eh, there's an ob. -HF

Yep...but I found the error, my listserver kicked out an old Chris Supplemental this morning...my bad!...JK


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 09 2006 01:06 PM
Re: Recon..

if recon finds pressures near that 1000mb or even close to 1004 or 5....it wouldnt take much for this to become closed if it isnt already.......there is at least a 90% closed circulation...but again..center might be soo tight that data cant pick up on it......Thank you Recon !!!

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 09 2006 01:15 PM
Re: Recon..

SSW winds being reported from recon into the system...

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 09 2006 01:27 PM
Re: Recon..

Winds coming in from the southwest have been readily apparent with night vis and vis close-ups for hours .. but I'm not so sure with it's western-facing region.

This is a little nit-picky, however, I'm not nearly as impressed with it's appearance at this hour. The convection seems to be caving in on itself a little bit along the eastern semi-circle. Seen this before and it sometimes indicates the start of a collapse of the entire burst.

The info from NRL @ 1000MB and 35 knots, however.. sheesh.. I wonder if the left hand is not talking well with the right hand, because 91L should really be Noname by now, if this is accurate.

putting the recon info in they just found 1012MB (0012)

Certainly this may and can change.. but 1012 .. so far we're taking something like TD Chris here, at best.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 09 2006 01:33 PM
Re: Recon..

could be more of a midlevel circulation with no west wind.at the lower levels....thats what Im thinking right now....winds on its sw side are only 5-10mph.....so if there is a center...its small and tight for now....Im not sure what to say about the NRL site thing...1000mb is very generous...especially if this is mostly a mid level ciruculation....but recon will tell us if its closed...I think it could be...but most people see the convection and the midlevel turning.
Maybe its a error on the NRL site for 1000mb....maybe its 1010mb....oh well..recon will tell.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 09 2006 01:45 PM
Re: Recon..

lowest recon i seen was 1009.88mb

JoeFL
(Registered User)
Wed Aug 09 2006 01:46 PM
Re: Recon..

Latest report from recon at 17:32 was 1010mb and 10kt surface wind .

SirCane
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 09 2006 01:48 PM
Re: Recon..

Looks like it may be getting into gear. Nice blowup of convection.

HurryCaneForm
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 09 2006 01:48 PM
Re: Recon..

Looking at the water vapor
imagery, there's surely something "spooky" about 91L. Yesterday night, I thought 91L was a goner and really had no area of low pressure, I'm stunned this afternoon at it's emergence.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/browsh3.html


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 09 2006 01:50 PM
Re: Recon..

If we want this to develop more..we will have to see a very nice convection build up later this evening and tonight...and it to stay south of 15N and 65W,,to the north is dry air and shear from the upper low.... hard to say right now.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 09 2006 01:59 PM
Re: Recon..

not saying it wont be a TD or TS at 5pm...but with all availible data ....this is a midlevel circulation...maybe a small turning in the lower levels..but I dont see a west wind!!...

FloydRTurbo
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Aug 09 2006 02:24 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

What I find amazing about this WV loop posted earlier...

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI1_wv_loop.gif

...is that in watching the 11 hour loop, starting around 13N54W it almost looks like the a trail of gunpowder racing toward the wave which explodes when it catches up, enough to erode the dry air to the north of the storm as it passes, then it looks like smaller explosions going off as it continues west. Then in front of it along 15-16N between 60-65W, storm fronts almost look like they are 'bombing" the air dry and driving it back.

I don't remember seeing that in any of last year's storms, maybe because I haven't seen this particular link until this year, but would those small quick convection bursts causing this "bombing" effect be indicative of a forming system, or is it the exact opposite? It looks like just a strong wave rather than a cyclonic system, like the scattered activity is prohibiting any one part of the wave from closing a cirulation.

Whatever it is when it crosses land, I wouldn't want to be in the way!!


bhnole
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Aug 09 2006 02:32 PM
Re: Nothing Immediate

Definitive COC visible on last visible frame.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/285.jpg

I can not tell whether it is being uncovered now or getting better organized. Better convection is now NW of the COC.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Aug 09 2006 02:35 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

I'm a newbie in this, though I'm trying to learn from you guys. This excerpt from NRL woukd suggest almost perfect conditions for development ahead...right?

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT01 KNGU 090301
REF/A/RMG/NAVLANTMETOCCEN NORFOLK VA/090000ZAUG06//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTNT01 KNGU)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.0N 50.0W TO 15.0N 56.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 GUSTS 30 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13.0N 50.0W HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTERLY FOR THE LAST 72 HOURS. THE SYSTEM MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRY
AIR INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THE LAST TWO DAYS
AND WEAKENED SLIGHTLY. DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER
THE LOW CENTER INCREASING TROPICAL CYCLONE FEATURES. UPPER LEVEL
WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TROPCIAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH SHEAR VALUES
OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE AREA. SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A MAJOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS
TIME, HOWEVER EXPECT MODEL GUIDANCE TO ANALYZE THE SYSTEM MORE ACCURATELY
IN THE NEAR FUTURE. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE AT THE LOW CENTER HAS BEEN
ANALYZED AT 81F(27C). CURRENT MOVEMENT INTO WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
ALONG THE ANTILLES WILL ALSO ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. THE SYSTEM MOVEMENT
FORECAST IS WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NEXT 72 HOURS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
100001Z AUG 06.//


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 09 2006 02:53 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

Quote:

This excerpt from NRL woukd suggest almost perfect conditions for development ahead...right?




The answer to that is no, not especially.

I don't have a lot of time, but here are some key phrases you will want to read again in the TCFA

"AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME

"THE SYSTEM MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRY
AIR INDICATED BY WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY THE LAST TWO DAYS
AND WEAKENED SLIGHTLY.

"SHORT TO MEDIUM RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM INTO A MAJOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS
TIME


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 09 2006 02:57 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

Welcome! You are correct when you mentioned that the conditions were almost perfect for development. However, the excerpt you posted was from August 6th, and conditions have changed since then.

You can always go back and check to see if they have updated anything regarding this.

Colleen


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 09 2006 03:01 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
ARE STILL POSSIBLE AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.


Texas Cane Tracker
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Aug 09 2006 03:06 PM
Re: Nothing Immediate

Seems to me that if there is a LLC, it is well east of the main convection associated with this system. Unless the environment around this wave/depression becomes more conducive for development, I don't see it becoming better organized in the near future.

stormtiger
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 09 2006 03:17 PM
ReWasn't it in 2004 we had similar instances

where the wave appeared to look good, but since it was moving Westward so fast it was debated whether it was or wasn't????

91L might have been a TD Monday morning as HF surmised. It's close today. If it stays intact and makes it into the West or possibly the central Carribean it could do something.

right now the forward speed might actually help it run the gauntlet, but it would need to slow down later.


Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Wed Aug 09 2006 03:20 PM
NRL Site

Okay, I'm a little confused here. I just checked the NRL site to see if there were any updates to the one posted before, which was dated August 6th. Look here:

NRL: 91L INVEST WARN, 09 AUG

So...did the NRL update the original statement today? Or did they mess up the date?



Randrew
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 09 2006 03:29 PM
Re: NRL Site

I believe that date is accurate Colleen. Here is a link to the criteria used to determine if a warning needs to be issued. Maybe this will help explain.

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/trg/tropical/TCFA_Checklist.htm


HanKFranK
(User)
Wed Aug 09 2006 03:30 PM
Re: NRL Site

the order of time/date in the advisory header is confusing. it's actually from 8 pm last night, i.e. 9th august at 00z (8pm edt, 8th august). look at the lat/lon... 13/50. it's referring to the position earlier that afternoon.
not irrelevant to what's happening today, but not very up to date.
looks like the convection on 91L is focused out ahead of the attempt at a circulation center... it looks like there is one in the h50-h70 level, but sfc obs still show nothing but a bunch of slightly bowed easterly winds, and very little in the way of pressure falls.
HF 1930z09august


Fletch
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 09 2006 03:35 PM
Re: NRL Site

Actually the time listed there "090000ZAUG06" translates to 0000 Zulu on Aug 9 of 2006. This was put out yesterday evening.

Sorry: HF beat me to it.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Aug 09 2006 03:39 PM
Re: NRL Site

HF, or anyone. Can you tell from any data how close it is to becoming TD. It just looks to be close on vis sat. and if the pressure is near 1010mb then what will have to happen to help enhance development other than the obvious (lack of shear & dry air)?

JOC


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Aug 09 2006 03:40 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

Thanks Collen...but the date in the message is Aug 9 at 0000Z, which is really the 8th at 8PM. In fact, in the heading, which I didn't copy, says Aug 9th at 1845Z.

Cieldumort...all those phrases have a "...but" or "...however" written after or implicit that made me interpret it as I did.


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Aug 09 2006 03:43 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might


Sorry guys...didn't read the rest of the answers related to the date issue.


Randrew
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 09 2006 03:59 PM
No Closed Circulation

This is good news from what I have read from the recent flight. No closed circulation. Surface winds to 23mph although the Navy still says 30kts with the pressure around 1010mb. Still a lot of shear from the ULL out there today which has not decided to dissipate yet. Still the system looks favorable just from the visible end of things. 91L seems to be moving a little fast for more development and the GFDL is the only model showing any development at this time. GFDL develops only a TS tomorrow and then dissipates below Hispaniola on Saturday. None of the others are grabbing that. Either way shear once again is probably the ultimate demise of this system. One other note. 91L is in favorable waters for development for about the next 24hrs. Any relaxation in shear could bring this system up to speed quickly.

nl
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 09 2006 04:25 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

could this be a bad karma thing or not? charlie was formed today in 2004 almost in the same spot. does it have a setup to match charlie? and what is that coming out of the gulf. is that a trough or no?

allan
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 09 2006 04:31 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

Naa thats an upper level low and yes Charlie did form 2 years ago today but this is going to put up with alot of ULLs and shear plus dry air. No development to a hurricane likely. It may come out of the blue but only a 1 out of 100. Though every image it looks more impressive. There should be a LLC soon and that should be Debby. No TD, looks to good for that.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html


bhnole
(Verified CFHC User)
Wed Aug 09 2006 04:34 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

This storm is a long way from being much of a threat to anything. It is currently severly lopsided with dry air entraining in the southern and eastern sections. Could easily be back on life support again within 12 hours.

weather_wise911
(Weather Hobbyist)
Wed Aug 09 2006 04:44 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

I myself am not terribly impressed.

It obvious there is no closed circulation (and was so before RECON. went in)..... and the convection is-once again-leaving the main low pressure area.


I`m just not thinking 91L will even have a chance to do much.


WW-911


madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 09 2006 05:15 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

Quote:

could this be a bad karma thing or not? charlie was formed today in 2004 almost in the same spot. does it have a setup to match charlie? and what is that coming out of the gulf. is that a trough or no?




It looks like a big lopsided cottonball right now. I know the NHC is watching it, but even they seem to be hedging their bets rather than seriously concerned about it. Besides, it's not Friday the 13th this year in August. *LOL*

As for the thing over the GOM, the NHC doesn't appear to be concerned about it either.

THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR THE BASE OF THE UPPER
LOW OFF THE W COAST OF FLORIDA...BUT CLOUD TOPS REMAIN WARM AND HEAVILY SHEARED.

That's from the TWD, 2:05pm.


SirCane
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 09 2006 05:21 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

If something like this can't develop in August then this season is going to be weak-like 1997. We're due for a weak one.

Randrew
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 09 2006 05:29 PM
It Ain't over yet

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED AUG 9 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH. WHILE AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT COULD NOT FIND A CENTER OF CIRCULATION THIS
AFTERNOON...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION.
THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THURSDAY AFTERNOON...IF
NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE IN SQUALLS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES TONIGHT....AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO ON
THURSDAY.


Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Aug 09 2006 05:51 PM
Re: It Ain't over yet

Whatever it does it is moving fast and it is going to bring some rain and wind to the Lesser Antilles. But I don't think it looks very
good right now. Just looks like a big blob of convection.


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 09 2006 05:51 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

Quote:

If something like this can't develop in August then this season is going to be weak-like 1997. We're due for a weak one.




It is a shame that Hurricanes do not operate on the logic of humans If P>Q= No hurricane. Unfortunately logic has little to do with it. I hope that the hurricane season will conform to no dangerous storms


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Wed Aug 09 2006 06:10 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might *DELETED* *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post deleted for breaking posting rule: - Public Personal attacks on other users will not be permitted.

Please read rules before posting..
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Thank you


sara33
(Weather Guru)
Wed Aug 09 2006 06:28 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

Sorry Mods,,,
I would have PM'd but the user is unregistered.

I disagree 100%, as I have read all of the posts and I find them very helpful! Just because someone is sharing an opinion does not mean that it is not meaningful.

Just another thank you to everyone for sharing all of your insight , opinions, and knowledge with us!!

Christine


SebastianLou
(Weather Watcher)
Wed Aug 09 2006 07:20 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

I think 91L is going too fast to do anything, this sure aint last year when it seemed as though everything developed.
I'm not sure, but isn't it that if 91L slows down, it would be more likely to develope? Everything seems relatively quiet in the tropics other than this feature, am I correct?


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Aug 09 2006 07:50 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

like how SFWMD updated there graphics some.. new color's, look, and more models, etc.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_91.gif


allan
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 09 2006 08:07 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

Ya and I also see they are pointing the storm to the Carribean. Thats a NO NO for us. Looks like we'll be talking about 91L for a long time. Like we have'nt already lol. Now thats it's going to go under the UUL we may see a Debby out of this. Tom Sorals (Central Florida Channel 6 Meteorologist) who is great on predicting storms says that we could still be looking at a TD or Debby in 24 hours. Especially when it's entering a dry but still a very good area for development. Please keep that on mind.
" Don't forget now that the strongest storm ever in the Atlantic Basin developed in the western Carribean"


dem05
(User)
Wed Aug 09 2006 08:47 PM
Attachment
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

Hi Folks,
I've been monitoring the posts through the day. I have a different take on this sytem than most, so I'd ask you to review the attatchment and use the bullets below as a reference. The attatchment is somewhat busy, but I'd like for you to visualize another possibility...that91L is not in that bad of shape...in fact, it is slowly setting up to get going. We shall see, for now...this is a different viewpoint.

1.) 91L today is not actually the original 91L. Last night, the surface circulation of it died. More so than the dry air and shear, it was the east-west elongation that killed it off...It just stretched itself to death. If you were up early this morning, you would know that the 91L we see today is more so the child of 91L. This area sprang into action on the front running portion of the old circulation (about 200 miles or so west of old 91L).
2.) The mid level system remains well in tact tonight.
3.) Low to mid level moisture channels are in place to the SE and SW.
4.) All Season we tracked carts before the horse...low level systems entering dry air and being chased by their t-storms that were behind it to the east. Today, T-storms raced ahead to the west. Realistically, this isn't a bad thing for this systems future. Like a team of football lineman, the t-storms have actually interrupted the downstream a bit and offered a more favoable moisture laden atmosphere to run in. These t-storms are about to run into a convergance zone, don't expect them to get much further than that (The convergance zone should act like the defensive lineman). These t-storms should fade in the coming hours leaving the mid level feature as the best game in town for t-storm development as the nocturnal-diurnal pattern sets in.
5. That convergence zone, along with the setup from todays t-storms may set up to have placed the system in the rocking chair...It's own environment where it can do what it wants for now if it chooses to organize. Once again...we'll see.


allan
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 09 2006 08:52 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

I agree with you, I believe that a new low is currently developing and that could mean business for the Carribean. It skipped to the south of all the shear. The only thing that will prevent it from doing it's thing is dry air. Which may or may not lighten up. Tommorrows gonna be another interesting day for us trackers. I have a feeling that a blow could occur as early as tommorrow morning or tonight and possibly create Debby! Though it may not do anything at all. Storms have a mind of there own these days.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Wed Aug 09 2006 09:07 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

Well, 91L is now visible on the long range radar out of San Juan, and there is a bit of a twist in the radar presentation, but not much of one. Of course, the low center (be it at the upper levels or the lower levels) is a long way from the radar and so the rotation may be more than is evident. The system has completely moved past the floater on SSD, but NRL still shows it. Unfortunately NRL does not have a working animation right now (only a single image).

If a LLC forms, I'd guess it will be near the convection south of Puerto Rico, rather than near the Lesser Antilles. It will be interesting to see what tomorrow brings, but I wouldn't be surprised if it never closed off the LLC.


dem05
(User)
Wed Aug 09 2006 09:16 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

What you have referenced is not totally out of the realm of possibility either. There was a "kink" in the convergence zone earlier today, right about where the heaviest thunderstorms are right now. It's not impossible that the mid level was just left behind. However, I think the primary area to focus on for now is the mid level low over by the central leewards. Even though the heaviest t-storms are south of Puerto Rico, I don't expect that to last and I think the focus will come back to the mid level feature. In fact, some new t-storms are starting to fire to the north and southwestern outsirts of that area now. Also, I don't see anything on radar that is too alarming for the area referenced south of PR...And it's lookking well above the surface from that far out. As far as the floater, I don't know what happened...it was right over 91L til about an hour ago. It has been refocused further east. Maybe they know something we do not.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Wed Aug 09 2006 10:41 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

looks like this one is going to be a cane down the road? IF IT DEVELOPES!!! which i think it has a good chance... THIS ONE (91L) needs to be watched... things could get interesting this weekend... While right now the wave looks pretty bad.... but that could change in the near future!
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
they ran Tropical Runs at 00tuc
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RMTC_BAR_2km_ir2.html


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Wed Aug 09 2006 11:35 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

What I see happening to the overall pattern is that there are many areas of Dry air associated with higher then normal pressures throughout the Atlantic basin......A strong surge from a ridge to 91Ls north is pushing it along near 20kt......development if any will be by Friday closer to Jamaica.......but I still say its doubtfull.

I been doubtfull on alot of stuff this year...the dry air and upper lows with the higher then normal pressures for this time of year is really taking it toll....especially the high pressures and upper lows.... but I see a pattern change in a couple weeks....best chance to get anything going will be maybe something coming down not into the gulf ( since the ridge is and will be dominite for the next 2-3 weeks over the southern 1/3rd but maybe coming off the east coast.....break away system may rotate sw or then west feeling the southern ridge and maybe challenging forecasters for Florida or the SE coast to NC in a week or 2.... There is nothing in the models showing a Named system coming ashore or anything...just looking at data that may develop...

I need to learn like the NHC and many forecasters on how to predict a storms intensity without guessing and getting it right.....but Im pretty accurate on where systems go.....there just hasnt been anything out there except the A storm to forecast.....the other 2 were obvious to most on direction... interesting thing on Chris was how the models showed the weakening and I saw it with the dry air and upper low influence.....but never thought it would be 60mph.....

Anyways if Im wrong then so be it..but conditions off the Se coast should be favorible in the next week.


dem05
(User)
Wed Aug 09 2006 11:37 PM
Attachment
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

Some time has passed and I have a follow up attatchment for you.Here's some notes to go along with it...On a side note, remeber it's not 2005, systems may evolve slower than last year,

1.) Mid level Low is now near St, Lucia and still holding it's own in relative terms.
2.) The Football Lineman analogy I made seems to be holding for now with one exception...The t-storms on the northern end are dying out on the convergence, bit the ones to the west keep going. I don't expect this to last all night, but it is expanding the area ahead of 91L for now and there is something going on at upper levels too (next point).
3.) Upper levels (Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html ) , a cuttoff (upper low) is north of barely north of the virgin Islands. 91 L is moving south of it...shear not as bad as could have been. The westerly flow may be providing difluence to the linebackers to the west of 91L, but as they are moving west, the TUTT seems to be too in the Carribean. The TUTT and the Upper Low should seperate, upper level dynamics have a potential of improving by morning or there after.
4.) Also, upper air dynamics will give weather to PR and the V.I. (per 10:30 TWO), but expect the monitor area to be further south.
The linemen t-storms are establishing a slightly better playing field than I expected in that they have punched further west. There system may slowly gather more tomorrow, the environment may increase in "friendliness", and don't be surprised if the flight is not cancelled in the afternoon and they find something.


dem05
(User)
Wed Aug 09 2006 11:49 PM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

P.S. Gang...I did want to say, if the t-storms south of PR do not die off, then my analysis may not be totally wrong, but any call for development would be a bust. There would be too much going on too close for anything concentrated to get together. That would be a game breaker for the next day or so.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Aug 10 2006 12:10 AM
91L

Good reading material here. You all are hard at it.

I'm with you on the Mid-level circulation. (Although I haven't looked at the latest sat shots).

San Juan VAD Profiler indicates somewhat of a Low pressure system passing through to the South of Puerto Rico at this time.
Over the last hour. Winds have veered from NE at 20kt to ENE at 20kts. Max wind of 27kts at 4000ft above the surface. I have discovered the San Juan-JUA radar is high on a mountain. So the actual surface winds are not being sampled. (I'll have to check the airports, buoys and Cman stations for that.)
Just West of due South at 100nm, radar is indicating echo tops max at 57,000ft. Impressive wave!
San Juan Long range radar loop-gif format
The 1045AM EDT RECON Plan of the Day for Aug 11th, indicates NHC is still in the 50/ 50 mode on this system.
Recon is tasked with
. SUSPECT AREA
FLIGHT ONE........................FLIGHT TWO
A. 11/0000Z........................A. 11/1200Z
B. AFXXX 03DDA INVEST.......B. AFXXX 0404A CYCLONE
C. 10/2300Z........................C. 11/1000Z
D. 15.5N 67.0W....................D. 16.0N 70.5W
E. 10/2300Z TO 11/0300Z......E. 11/1100Z TO 11/1500Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT.............F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Notice the change from INVEST to CYCLONE. That would indicate a closed Low Pressure system. Of at least Tropical Depression status. (Depends on the wind speeds also.)


Genesis
(Weather Guru)
Thu Aug 10 2006 12:22 AM
Re:immediate will not survive, weak might

Quote:

looks like this one is going to be a cane down the road? IF IT DEVELOPES!!! which i think it has a good chance... THIS ONE (91L) needs to be watched... things could get interesting this weekend... While right now the wave looks pretty bad.... but that could change in the near future!
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/intensity1.png
they ran Tropical Runs at 00tuc
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/RMTC_BAR_2km_ir2.html



I really don't like that Canadian Clipper..... and the bad news is that its been reasonably right often enough to bother me.

The "easy" models are usually untrustworthy, and its interesting that none of the other globals are finding any staying power on this thing.

If you look at the WV loop at http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html there's an obvious ULL in the gulf roughly south of the AL/MS line by a couple hundred miles, moving to the NNW and losing some of its definition. If that thing was to drill down it could be trouble - what's keeping it from doing so is the STRONG high to the north of it. The convergence is what kicked off the severe storms near us today, and might tomorrow - but then its outta here it appears..... That suits me just fine, as I don't think anyone down here wants to see anything get organized south of NO!

There's a slug of dry air over Hispanola right now, but that appears to be moving off to the west and looks to be far enough in front of our wave that its not going to "prong" it like happened to Chris. Interestingly enough it looks like the wave has been impacted by this however, in that the last few frames of the IR loop seem to show a flattening (more westward) movement - althought that may be illusory and just where the convection is heaviest.

This thing is really CRANKING along. It has to slow down some if its going to have time to get more vertically organized, but by being relatively shallow it also misses the ULL's "spike" effect - so its a mixed bag. I also don't see much rotation - that's a good thing for the time being....

Tomorrow should tell the tale. If its going to get TUTTed, that should be when it happens. I'd put the odds at 50/50 on it being able to stay far enough east of the influence, and for the inhibiting factors to clear west of it - which would allow it to deepen and develop rotation. Its over warm water now and absent active disruption we'd have a good storm going already.

The high that is over the TN/AL/GA border area looks to be moving slowly ESE, and this is not good news. If that comes off the coast and allows what could be "D" to ride up to its west, things could get quite interesting....... this looks to be what the clipper is seeing..... right now the pattern in front of this thing is quite complex, but that looks to be clearing off to a large degree over the next couple of days......

Will be watching it tomorrow... and hoping its a bust, as the last thing I want is this thing getting into the gulf with all the current inhibitors off the playing field in front of it and 85F+ water underneath it!


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Aug 10 2006 12:24 AM
Re: 91L

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
603 PM AST WED AUG 9 2006

...PER TPC/NHC...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT COULD NOT CLOSE OFF A SURFACE CIRCULATION THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROPICAL WAVE. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AS IT MOVES STEADILY OFF TO THE WEST OR WEST NORTHWEST. ALL LOCAL RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/fwd/productviewnation.php?pil=SJUAFDSJU&version=1&max=25
*****************
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED A * SPECIAL MARINE WARNING FOR THE... CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

* UNTIL 130 AM AST (0530Z~danielw)

* AT 1122 PM AST (0322Z) ...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS.
SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS AND SQUALLS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH WINDS OF AROUND 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN LOCALLY ROUGH AND CHOPPY SEAS.

MARINERS CAN EXPECT GUSTY WINDS...HIGH WAVES...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING... AND HEAVY RAINS. BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY...UNTIL THIS STORM PASSES.
LAT...LON 1798 6564 1708 6494 1704 6753 1786 6736
(this isn't exactly on topic. Posted to indicate the current surface conditions~danielw) 0424Z


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Aug 10 2006 12:36 AM
GOM ULL

Quote:
..."If you look at the WV loop at http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html there's an obvious ULL in the gulf roughly south of the AL/MS line by a couple hundred miles, moving to the NNW and losing some of its definition. If that thing was to drill down it could be trouble - what's keeping it from doing so is the STRONG high to the north of it."

That ULL is stirring up plenty of trouble around MS/LA.
Gulfport reported the Highest 1 day rainfall since Hurricane Katrina. Over 3 inches. Some remote areas of the MS Gulf Coast received 4-5inches.

Terra, one of the Flhurricane members in Mandeville,LA received 3.98inches. With 3.18inches of rainfall in 1 hour!

A week of sunshine is needed to dry up the grround before Any Tropical System approaches the Northern Gulf Coast. I believe that areas of Southern and Northwestern Florida are in the same boat. No pun intended!


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Aug 10 2006 01:10 AM
Re: 91L

At this hour nearly all of the deep convection has raced along far ahead of whatever is left of a mlc - best I can tell, 91L is now a nice Inverted V easterly wave - with a lot of forward momentum - I see close to zero chance for development over the next 12 hours if this trend continues. It looks like an arrow shooting across the Caribbean tonight, leaving mere feathers of "convection" in it's wake.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-ir2.html


At any rate, whatever is left of it might have a deeper fetch of tropical moisture to draw from, as well as even warmer SSTs, once whatever is left gets in to the central and western Carib.


I'll amend that observation to say that the MLC is actually still visible near St. Lucia - and is still attempting to re-fire convection tonight ... so, that is where I would consider 91L to "be." However, 91L's synoptic environment is one of being a part of a larger entity - just an open wave - However, I suppose that I tend to see this very similarly to the way Dem does - that the arrow racing ahead is clearing out much of that dry air! So, net-net, I suppose this could ultimately be a positive for the MLC to fight off future attacks and close something off downstairs.

Any way you cut it, we are still chit-chatting over a system of very limited capacity right now. Quite possibly it was a depression a few days ago, but since then it has been a ghost of it's former self most of the time.


HanKFranK
(User)
Thu Aug 10 2006 01:23 AM
status quo

91L hasn't made any inroads to development since around noon today. a mid-level vorticity center developed in the convective burst, while a weak anticyclone began to build aloft, around which time the speeding system reoriented to something more like a squall line, with turning of the wave still present, but nearly all of the convection out on the leading edge. not the sort of profile you'd look for with a healthy system. i don't see a whole lot to slow 91L down. don't think it can develop for that reason. the trades are doing a great job keeping the deep tropics on standby.
further east the wave trailing 91L has a convergence line strung along its western itcz frontage. it may help focus a vorticity center and convective region, or may just be one of those features passing waves do generate without consequence...
probably the latter.
surface low in the northeast atlantic (sw of the azores) still not doing anything. didn't have the kind of focal mechanism that a single deep cutoff vortex with a good cold pool aloft could create... all it has managed so far has been a surface trough with a weak low.
scott has an interesting idea with a close-in feature getting splitting off of a trough and getting trapped under the continental ridge. thus far none have been deep enough to do more than drop in and push convection offshore.... just that mcc last weekend really crosses my memory. essentially a zonal type pattern with little amplification is driving the train... the onset of early fall type amplifications... and whatever meridional wave action in the tropics attends it (to create those logjam situations where the trade blitzkrieg is jumbled and energy amasses)... that stuff ought to be needed to break the generally hostile pattern in the tropics. maybe some sneaky/longshot type tropical activity before then.. but between the big blow that breaks the heat over the middle of the continent, and the arrival of whatever westerly lower-tropospheric mjo anomalies can be had.. right around then things should really be cranking.
late august, sometime. probably.
HF 0523z10august


Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Thu Aug 10 2006 03:56 AM
Re: status quo

A few extra thoughts on features. it looks like there's a piece of energy lagging behind the wave itself. The wave looks as though it's racing off to the west, and the other piece of energy (where the mid level feature is) seems to be moving a bit slower to the northwest.

Of course, that mid level feature could wash out in the next 6 hours and be meaningless, (particularly with some northerly shear over it) but it's still something a little unexpected.

There's also a big turning in the central atlantic with some convection to the southwest of it possibly feeding into that cyclonic turning. Nothing likely out of it but the convection does seem to be on the uptick there, however it's still horribly disorganized.

Perhaps oddly enough, if the wave did fracture, the chances of something developing may improve. The wave racing to the west may finally slow down, and get a chance to build, and the mid level low continues to fire convection, giving it a chance to organize.

Of course all of these are small chances. but... (happily) there's not much that has large chances right now.

-Mark


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Thu Aug 10 2006 08:35 AM
Re: status quo

Post deleted - question was previously answered just a few posts back.

stormtiger
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Aug 10 2006 09:53 AM
Re: 91L taking the hard road

After noon yesterday 91L made an attempt to organize itself after a wsw move below some of the shear. The recon didn't find a closed low at the surface, but 91L looked pretty good.

However overnight the continued rapid movement and a jaunt to the NW put 91L back in jeopardy. I think its too far North now to have much of a chance to do anything even if it slows down.

BTW, here in Baton Rouge we had a dose of the tropics yesterday evening. The ULL moving west through the gulf caused severe storms in our city. The storms moved East to West along the upflow created by the Northern edges of the ULL. Numerous lightning strikes, hail and winds were reported over a widespread area with torrential rains. In some ways for BR it was worse than Katrina's effects here. Not near as long however. It lasted for just over an hour.


bhnole
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Aug 10 2006 11:07 AM
Re: 91L taking the hard road

I agree, looks 91L ventured too far north to have any chance. Looks like it is bound to cross Hispaniola now, whatever is left will probably be disapated due to dry air and shear. The few waves behind it look unimpressive and headed for the same fate. This keeps up and we may make it to September.

Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Thu Aug 10 2006 11:25 AM
Re: 91L taking the hard road

11:30 TWO...it's a no-go again:

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE
OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA REMAINS DISORGANIZED... AND THE AIR
FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION FOR TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NO LONGER FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AND NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AT 20 TO 25 MPH.


HanKFranK
(User)
Thu Aug 10 2006 11:27 AM
nodebby

our 12th invest is definitely an open wave this morning. fast trades below can be worse than shear above sometimes.
models aren't depicting much in the way of activity... not like a week ago when pretty much every one had the 91L wave coming off and becoming a hurricane almost outright. system had me fooled about three days ago, but eventually i figured it out, too.
might be an uncharacteristically relaxing month, or at least couple of weeks.
by about ten to fifteen days from now the basin is almost always switched on. there isn't a '97-esque el nino to contend with, so one way or another it's coming. for now, enjoy the quiet.
HF 1527z10august


SirCane
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 10 2006 12:34 PM
Re: nodebby

Yeah, it looks quiet but we all know things CAN change fast. Sure would be nice to go through a weak season after what we've all been through the last couple years.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Aug 10 2006 01:22 PM
Re: nodebby

As a long-shot, if nothing else, but also because I am more impressed with it today than I am of whatever is left of 91L at the moment - not to mention that I live in Texas, I'm watching this

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rgb-l.jpg


Persistent ULL with some hybridizing qualities


cuidado
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Aug 10 2006 01:37 PM
Re: nodebby

...QUIET is right! My under-insured property and I definitely enjoy it!
What is the anniversary of Andrew (the "A" storm for 19??)
Mid-September??

August 24th, 1992. -HF


Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Thu Aug 10 2006 01:41 PM
Re: nodebby

That is supposed to bring some thunderstorms to our area today. We will see what develops with that as for as rainy weather.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Thu Aug 10 2006 02:03 PM
Re: nodebby

It has clearly been trying to develop a lower-level feature, and once again today, deeper convection is firing directly under the center of the ULL. My best guess is that a mid-level low has indeed taken hold today, and is attempting to push further to the surface at this hour.

Texas Cane Tracker
(Verified CFHC User)
Thu Aug 10 2006 03:30 PM
Re: nodebby

Nice ULL, but I don't think it could convert to a warm core before running into Mexico. Could bring some beneficial rain however.

Genesis
(Weather Guru)
Thu Aug 10 2006 04:52 PM
Re: nodebby

That's the evil little SOB that tried to sink a few boats in a tournament over the weekend here - there were reports of 70mph+ winds and numerous waterspouts offshore - and was responsible for a severe pounding that we've taken in the way of ordinary rough weather over the last few days.

The high to the north of it is what's kept it from being able to spin up - and I suspect it will run out of room before it can do anything, even though those two features are moving apart from one another..... If it had another 100-200nm of sea room it would be bad news - but the ridging should persist long enough to drive this into Mexico before it can get its feet down underneath it.....


weather_wise911
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Aug 10 2006 04:59 PM
Re: nodebby

I`m just not seeing much of anything with this system--

An upper low, converting to a tropical system... is a complicated, SLOW, gradual process.

What we are looking at is a simple enhancement of thunderstorm activity...... nothing tropical.


WW-911


Randrew
(Weather Guru)
Thu Aug 10 2006 10:16 PM
Is this the right page?

The Chris killing ULL in the Gulf is trying to make a move to the surface tonight. Haven't been here today but here's a quote from the 8pm TWD.


...THE
UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE BUILDING TO THE SFC WITH A FEW
BUOYS/SHIPS SHOWING SOME CYCLONIC WIND SHIFT IN THE AREA. THIS
SFC REFLECTION IS ANALYZED AS A TROF WITH THE AXIS ALONG 94W
FROM 24N-27N.

Probably nothing. What I do know is these black holes as I fondly call them are notoriously slow to move but most especially transitioning from the mid to surface levels. Here's the Gulf WV loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Thu Aug 10 2006 10:51 PM
GOM ULL

The last sentence of the GOM paragraph, in the evening TWD, pretty much sums up the GOM ULL forecast.

..."THE GREATEST CHANCE OF RAIN TOMORROW WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE FAR W GULF IN THE VICINITY OF THE UPPER LOW....WHICH SHOULD BE INLAND OVER TEXAS/MEXICO AT THIS TIME TOMORROW."
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/102356.shtml?

Along that line. Jim Cantore, TWC, had a 7 day WV loop of the SW N ATL, GOM and Caribbean, that he used to demonstrate the Lack of Tropical Activity over the last week.
The ULL in combination with the TUTT has basically induced a South to Southwesterly shear into the area
South of the ULL track...(The Area south of 25N) has too much shear to allow for development.
That's my take on his demonstration.

He also said the next Low to move into the SW N ATL wouldn't be as far South as the one earlier this week. He noted the Tropical Wave just east of the Lesser Antilles was at a slightly lower latitude than the others have been. Possibly an indicator that it could develop more than 91L.


cuidado
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Aug 11 2006 12:31 PM
Re: Is this the right page?

Quote:

...these black holes as I fondly call them...



I like that - Black Holes - describes them (visually) really well. And they're certainly more "fun" to watch (than something like 91L) just in case they do something surprising so close to home. But I am remided by your "Chris killing" remark just how surprising that really would be. I am also reminded that in the old days, before we had access to all the exotic (to me) info available now (TUTT, MJO, etc.), there wasn't any point in getting serious about anything that didn't show any outflow aloft. As in, if you can actually see the circulation from a satellite (like the ULL) you're looking at a likely non-event. Makes Scott's thought about something coming off the east coast more tantalizing.

You all (HF, Genesis, TCT , Daniel, Scott, et. al.) are certainly more interesting than the guys at, say, Raging Bull. Thanks.


Beaumont, TX
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Aug 11 2006 04:17 PM
Re: Nothing Immediate

It is weird how quiet things are. I have been reading about all of the typhoons that are causing so much damage in China.
They seem to be having a year like we had last year.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Aug 11 2006 04:56 PM
Re: Nothing Immediate

Get a load of this

91L just refuses to die

Someone really needs to stick a fork in him, and simply put him out of our misery already


Clark
(Meteorologist)
Fri Aug 11 2006 05:47 PM
Re: Nothing Immediate

Eh, it's not really a threat right now even. There's a bit of convection there, helping to form occasional mid-level vortices, but there's not much of a surface reflection anymore as winds are strong out of the east-southeast across the axis of that convection. Certainly, there is no closed low-level circulation, and it's moving too fast for anything to threaten out of that one. Not now, at least.

cieldumort
(Moderator)
Fri Aug 11 2006 06:36 PM
Re: Nothing Immediate

I wasn't attempting to suggest that it is nothing more than a curiosity for having ::drum-roll:: held in there, for so long - seeming to die - rebirth - die - rebirth - all the action in the Atlantic narrowed down to one persistent, but persistently innocuous, wave, that refuses to give up the ghost time and time again

wereallgonnadie
(Verified CFHC User)
Fri Aug 11 2006 08:36 PM
Re: Nothing Immediate *DELETED*

Post deleted by Ed Dunham

Storm Cooper
(Moderator)
Fri Aug 11 2006 08:42 PM
Re: Nothing Immediate

To be really honest this post should be moved but you do make a vague point and things are slow so I'll let another power move this... but the song I think is "Wake me up when September ends"...

September is on the way and things may change rather rapidly so enjoy the slow time.


sara33
(Weather Guru)
Fri Aug 11 2006 10:01 PM
Re: Nothing Immediate

Is 91L non existant as far as the NHC goes? NRL does not have it listed anymore nor does NHC (just on floater 2)? Just curious.
WOW, could we be so lucky to get through August with no storms( sorry, knock on wood!) ? I sure hope so!! Last year and as I recall, the year before, there were a ton of waves blowing off of Africa at this time. It seems so quiet..Yeah!!

probably not, considering we've already had chris in august. -HF


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Fri Aug 11 2006 10:15 PM
Re: Nothing Immediate

It was great reading the 5:30PM today, but the "meat" of the season is coming. I remember everyone breathing a sigh of relief last October, then Wilma came.

It only takes a storm; any storm to make it a bad season. Please, please stay ready.


BillD
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Aug 11 2006 10:24 PM
Re: Nothing Immediate

91L is no more, read Clark's post just a few above. No circulation at all at any level.

I think all of us are relieved that this season has not produced what we saw the last couple of years. This is not to say that later on is going to be quiet. But so far all the waves that have come off Affrica have not been able to develop. They continue to come, it isn't that they are not there, it is that the envrionment is not there for them develop into anything.

Bill


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 12 2006 12:00 AM
Re: Nothing Immediate

Actually, that would be incorrect.

Here, the 8PM TWD gives a stong hint that NHC is still monitoring this wave closely.

"A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 72W S OF 21N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE LOOKS A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE TODAY
THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 70W-73W. THE STRUCTURE OF THIS WAVE HAS
ALSO IMPROVED SLIGHTLY WITH SOME LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING
EVIDENT NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED 300
NM TO THE NE OF THE WAVE AND WILL BE MOVING WWARD IN TANDEM."

Here are the key phrases in there:
THIS WAVE LOOKS A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE TODAY
THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION

THE STRUCTURE OF THIS WAVE HAS ALSO IMPROVED SLIGHTLY

SOME LOW-MID LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING
EVIDENT NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.

UPPER LEVEL WINDS DO NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT


HanKFranK
(User)
Sat Aug 12 2006 12:28 AM
stuff that probably doesn't matter...

noticed that one of the pulses on the leading edge of that trough in the western atlantic, up north/northeast of bermuda... got a nice little convective flare on it. ssts in the subtropics are quite warm (compared to avg/below average in the lower latitudes).. with all the troughing off the east coast and energy being pushed offshore, could mean a little bit of activity. pretty much all modeling shows areas of low pressure out there with no real development, and little bits getting left behind as shortwaves clip by. deeper down in the tropics, there's a weak low/trough with some anticyclonic rotation aloft on the periphery of the itcz maybe 700-800 miles east of barbados. very weak, something of a longshot, but a bit of a convective flare tonight. with the big trough off the east coast, it the gate is closed for any development to come west anyway.
the wave in the caribbean, erstwhile 91L, still has a decent signature and some upper ridging ahead... trades aren't quite as fast as earlier, but it will probably do little and run out of real estate in a couple of days.
waiting around for something to break the pattern of the subtropical ridge being around 24N, the weakness in the western atlantic and rex block in the eastern atlantic. not to mention the associated fast trades and active TUTT. it's persisting later into the summer this year.. need some amplification and surges of fall to crack this nut open and get the tropics active again.
i reckon that whenever fall starts pushing into the midwest and northeast, the ridging shifts offshore and to the west coast, and the mjo trade wind logjam gets situated around central america/the caribbean... we'll be back in business.
two/three weeks.
HF 0428z12august


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 12 2006 02:57 AM
Re: stuff that probably doesn't matter...

Watching this stuff and attempting to give it any kind of credibility for future development has certainly been a challenge.

I've noticed that the next wave up (the one right behind 91L) does have an associated well-defined low level cyclone with it - however, very dry, and as such, extremely shallow and weak.

I don't know about that stuff over the Gulf Stream. The front is not exactly stalled, and while Scat really clearly shows off the low level circs, they are still entirely too much a part of the front to impress me much, just yet.

After all of these recent years, it would be incredible to see us get our first hurricane of the season sometime in September.


Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Sat Aug 12 2006 01:05 PM
Re: stuff that probably doesn't matter...

Just amazing...might as well be looking at a mid-winter sat view of the Atlantic.

HurryCaneForm
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Aug 12 2006 04:24 PM
Re: stuff that probably doesn't matter...

You could be right cieldumort, we might as well have all the action in September. I've heard that when the Pacific has storms more frequently, the Atlantic tends to be more quiet which is what I'm seeing this season. The Pacific already has 7 named storm(One which reached Cat.4 Status) and in The Atlantic only 3 & all of em only reach TS.
Anyway, we should not let our guard down no matter what.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Aug 12 2006 09:53 PM
NCEP Discussion roundup-early

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1000 AM EDT SAT AUG 12 2006 (edited~danielw)

VALID 12Z WED AUG 16 2006 - 12Z SAT AUG 19 2006

...ANOTHER AREA OF INTEREST WAS OFF THE SE COAST OF THE CONUS WHERE THE 00Z/12 GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ITS 06Z COUNTERPART...DEVELOP A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROF FOR MID-AUGUST.

WE THINK THAT THE ECMWF/UKMET/CANADIAN MODELS MAY BE MORE REALISTIC WITH THE UPPER PATTERN OFF THE SE COAST NEXT THU-SAT.
THE 00Z AND 06Z/12 RUNS OF THE GFS...AND ESPECIALLY THE 06Z/12 DGEX...IMPLY TROPICAL ACTIVITY OFF THE E COAST DAYS 6-7 THAT WE ARE NOT HONORING AT THIS TIME.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html
***********************************************

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
240 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2006 (edited~danielw)

VALID 12Z TUE AUG 15 2006 - 12Z SAT AUG 19 2006

...EAST OF THE MS RIVER...

WEAK SURFACE LOW FORMING WELL E OF FL NEXT FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY WWD DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE.
LOW CONFIDENCE. OTHERWISE FOLLOW TPC OUTLOOKS AND OUTLOOKS ON THIS SYS.Bold Emphasis added~danielw
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
*******************************************************

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
601 PM EDT SAT AUG 12 2006

FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID AUG 13/0000 UTC THRU AUG 16/0000 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR (edited~danielw)

...DAY 3...
SOUTHEAST...
ANOMALOUS PWS(preciptable water) CONTINUE OVER MOST OF REGION THIS PERIOD WITH 15/16 GEFS MEMBERS SUPPORTING AT LEAST .5" AMNTS THIS PERIOD OVER SRN FLORIDA. IN ADDITION...OP 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED HEAVIER WITH QPF(Quantative Precipitation Forecast) THIS PERIOD COMPARED TO THE 0ZZ RUN. WILL USE GFS MAINLY THIS PERIOD WITH IDEA THAT SOME LL(Low Level) CIRCULATION MAY DEVELOP NEAR SE COAST BY END OF PERIOD.
LIGHT AMBIENT WINDS MAY ALLOW FOR SEABREEZE
COLLISIONS ONCE AGAIN.
(edits by danielw)
QPF- areas expected to receive 1/4 inch(>0.25"/ >6.35mm) or more precipitation during a 24-hour period.


Randrew
(Weather Guru)
Sun Aug 13 2006 12:27 AM
NWS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC


LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION LATE TUE. THE
FRONT STALLS OVER THE REGION FOR A COUPLE DAYS ON THE GFS...BEFORE
ANOTHER CAD EVENT DRIVES THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. NCEP IS GOING
WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH THE FIRST FRONT. THE GFS ALSO
DEVELOPS A LOW OFF THE SE COAST THAT STRONGLY HINTS OF TROPICAL
ORIGINS. HOWEVER...NCEP IS ALSO DISCOUNTING THIS FEATURE AS OTHER
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH IT/S DEVELOPMENT.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC

MODELS HAVE NOW BACKED DOWN FROM THEIR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENTS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. CENTER OF SFC HIGH TO MIGRATE OFF THE
CAROLINAS MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR VEERING IN THE SFC WIND
FIELDS. THE SFC RIDGE AXIS FROM THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO STAY EITHER
ACROSS OR JUST NORTH OF THE ILM WATERS AS THE UPPER LONGWAVE TROF
FILLS IN SOMEWHAT.

What I am seeing is a model data input regarding the upper low still north of Hispaniola that is expanding. This feature could or could not make the trip close enough to South Florida to influence a potential low formation off the south east US coast. If it does then a more westerly track for the potential low would be a possibility. My personal thinking is that the upper low will not have an impact should there even be anything to impact and regardless of climactics I suspect any formation would be directed eastward in some fashion.


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Sun Aug 13 2006 03:16 AM
Re: NWS

Well, the two long-shots of the weekend are looking slightly less improbable this late Saturday night.

Feature 1) Surface low pressure just off the southeast coast - although, still largely attached to a stalling-out front. Deeper convection has been underway for a few hours, along with what appears to be a possible attempt at coalescing about a general center.
Floater 1 over the Gulf



Feature 2) Tropical Wave approaching the Lesser Antilles - has had a very weak and dry surface low associated with it for several days. Somewhat deep convection has now been underway for many hours, and it appears tonight that it is possibly attempting to mesh somewhat with that formerly very dry low level swirl of a low pressure center.
Floater 2 over the Caribbean


Randrew
(Weather Guru)
Sun Aug 13 2006 04:47 AM
Cent Atl.

The wave moving into the Windwards has shown a respectable flare on the sats. Fortunately all that is mostly caused by a convergence with the ITCZ. I see no future development with this one at that low an elevation. But there is always 12-24 hrs from now that could show a completely different picture.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Aug 13 2006 09:50 AM
Re: Cent Atl.

looking at the same wave... while it looks nice... it doesn't look like it will hold together... nice VIS sat of this wave coming across the islands. It appears that it is getting sheared apart.

Ron Basso
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Aug 13 2006 10:10 AM
Re: NWS

Interesting forecast the next 72-96 hrs. The UKMET, NOGAPs, CMC, & NAM models all develop low pressure east of FL and move it west across the peninsula into the GOM by Wednesday next week. The GFS has a stronger low NE of the state and sorta splits this energy with one lobe heading NE and another moving SW across FL. None of the models (except NAM) develop the low into a strong feature but given the time of year and the warm Atlantic and GOM waters - this definitely bears watching - especially with so much model support. The low would form from the remnants of an old front off the east coast of FL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.cg...;hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc2...;hour=Animation

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/06/index_slp_s_loop.shtml


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Aug 13 2006 10:42 AM
Re: Cent Atl.



From 0 to 2 in nothing...NRL has 92L and 93L up


recmod
(Weather Guru)
Sun Aug 13 2006 10:56 AM
Re: Cent Atl.

Quote:



From 0 to 2 in nothing...NRL has 92L and 93L up




Why, if we have two invests out there, does the NHC's Tropical Weather Outlook read as follows:

Quote:

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.




This seems a bit contradictory. Shouldn't features that warrant being labeled an invest at least be discussed in the NHC's tropical outlook?

--Lou


GuppieGrouper
(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 13 2006 11:03 AM
Re: Cent Atl.

The Navy is interested because the storms will affect naval operations, boats etc. The NHC will get interested if it starts to effect land.Can't remember which form of those two words are correct so I used one each(e, a)ffect.

stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Sun Aug 13 2006 11:06 AM
Re: Cent Atl.

NHC will likely start talking about these features at the 5pm TWO. Sooner if the models prove correct.

Cat 5orBust
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Aug 13 2006 11:29 AM
Re: recon

in the11:30 TWO the NHC said they are scheduled to send a flight into the system by the islands this afternoon. they also mention the area ne of florida. they mention that both may become better organized in the near term.

HanKFranK
(User)
Sun Aug 13 2006 12:18 PM
Re: recon

hmm.. neither feature looks really great right now... guess they're expecting them to persist or something, since nrl has them as invests.
92L has an offcenter anticyclone aloft and a decent convergence line oriented sw/ne on the northern side. oddly it's biggest detractor is the slow movement and failure to stay linked with the high aloft. convection is spotty and the low at the surface is very weak. think the recon at this point is a tad unnecessary. this one clearly falls short of the deep convection requirements the nhc guys slap onto every potential system. with the persistent weakness off the east coast, it would have to migrate further westward to sneak underneath--a short term development would likely recurve out of the caribbean.
93L is nothing right now. several of the globals are closing an upper low off at the base of the east coast trough and splitting it back westward. should continue to aid turning at lower levels and keep a weak low focused underneath along the decaying frontal trough in the western atlantic. globals generally show enough of a weakness remaining affixed to the east coast that anything that might develop would just lift out northward, slowly. also perhaps the potential for a stalled system.
i wouldn't chalk either system up to 50/50 right now. need to see more persistance before either begins to look like a serious development threat.
HF 1618z13august


Unregistered User
(Unregistered)
Sun Aug 13 2006 01:18 PM
Re: recon

Thats an excellent evaluation of the situation HF.I will say nothing else in regards to this. I would give it 50/50 aswell.


I believe the feature east of florida/ga bears watching. Its looks like a break off from the frontal system.

Time will tell. And it is such a quiet season this year with the only systems forming fighting uphill battles against unfavorable conditions. But things could change and a Re-run of the 5 terrible weeks of 2004 could come at any time.

Never forget the fantastic four CFIJ which ruined an otherwise quiet season.

Charley, Frances, Ivan, Jeanne.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 13 2006 01:38 PM
Re: recon

Carribean disturbance is very weak and actual weak circulation is well east of the convection....no reason to send recon into that.....tomorrow maybe a recon east of the Cape by a couple hundred miles....but hard to say what will develop....part of energy will cross florida in the next day or 2 and move into the gulf and might develop heading towards southern TX and northern Mex.....and another piece will be traped off the SE coast as it moves N then back south missing a trough coming off the east coast mid week....

for now...everything is a wait and see............just like the whole season....pressures remain very high everywhere.


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Aug 13 2006 01:46 PM
Re: recon

i am a little stunned an NHC recon plan of the day.. Note this afternoon flight is requested if "RESOURCES PERMITTING"... which i think there is a plane down in the islands still. Also looking at the NHC recon plan of the day. Seems they give this area a good chance of Development?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?
Just like scott posted... the Low at the surface is visible well east of the islands and convection... with shear above it....here's 1km sat VIS


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sun Aug 13 2006 02:55 PM
Re: recon

Only real system of intrest is the one forming later tonight into Monday east of Florida.....This pattern with overall pressures lower (ala trough) was seen by me last week as a area of intrest. I said that it will possibly impact Florida or the Se coast to the Carloinas if anything did develop..... The other area just east of the carribean will desolve in 12-24hrs. Another area of intrests the models like is a piece of energy from trough moving into the gulf...hard to say if its the system forming from above or just a branch off of the trough also.

Anyways..this system has the best chance of becoming Debby by later Monday or into Tuesday...it has warm ssts...enough moisture for development..low enough pressures.....just only windshear for now...but I expect that to lessen some in the next couple of days as a ridge builds to its N......also with the ridge...I expect whatever nw path it takes in the next couple of days to push it back to the S and W later in the week .....for now...its the best chance at developing...models are beginning to pick up on it...but landfall and path is still uncertain as we dont have a center and ridge strength is unknown in 72hrs.



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