MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 13 2006 03:22 PM |
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Two Systems to Watch
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Update - Monday, 6:30PM
One system, 92L (The caribbean disturbance) fell apart overnight, and is no longer a concern, however a new wave emerged off Africa last night, and now the Cape Verde season is on its way. This system, if it persists, still has a chance for development. But it most likely will become a fish spinner and stay out to sea, as far as lands on our side of the Atlantic are concerned.
However, the area off Florida has spread out, now from the Bahamas up toward northeast. Basically trapped between two lows, this has a better chance to form over the next day or so. It's future track will likely keep it out to sea, but it is close enough to keep a watch on for sure. Some models have it drifting off the coast for days, but most keep it a tropical storm. It may get closer to North Carolina, then back off and stall.
Chance of Off Florida Disturbance (93L) to develop in next 24-48 hours.
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[---------*----------]
Chance of Eastern Atlantic Wave (94L) to Develop over the next 24-48 hours:
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------*---------------]
Update - Monday, 11AM
There are still two systems to keep an eye on. NHC has dropped the Invest on 92L (Eastern Caribbean) but has added a new Invest 94L just exiting the west African coast. 94L is a strong wave with evidence of a low level circulation. Visible satellite images suggest that the center of circulation may be a bit further northwest of the original estimated position - perhaps near 13N 19W at 14/12Z. Pressure estimated at 1008mb and wind estimated at 30 knots. System should move west or west northwest and almost immediately into an area of moderate but decreasing wind shear. SSTs are around 27.5C - marginal but adequate for additional intensification given the overall structure of the system. Even if strengthening occurs, the system should encounter an area of increasing shear near 45W and weaken again. This one seems to have a better chance for survival - at least for the next few days. This is the same wave that was noted in The Tropics Today Forum a few days ago when the system was over central Africa.
ED
Original Post
Currently, after a few quiet days, there are more areas in the tropics to watch. There is an area area to the east of the Northeastern Florida coast (by about 325 miles) that could develop over the next few days. This system is drifting right now, and likely would move a bit further south. Beyond that it's a bit early to say, it could drift a bit closer and give us some rain along Florida or the Carolinas.
Chance of Off Florida Disturbance (93L) to develop in next 24-48 hours.
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------*-------------]
The other system is over the Eastern Caribbean, and is moving toward the west, this has a chance to develop over the next few days as well, but it would be slow. If it keeps up with the upper level high pressure, then it could have a better chance later on. However, this is entering a historically bad area for development, so there is equal chance it could disappear as well in a few days. Recon is currently scheduled to investigate this system later.
Chance of Caribbean Disturbance to Develop over the next 24-48 hours:
Code:
forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[------*---------------]
Neither system is all that impressive currently, but it could change. It is mid August, so chances for development, in general, go up.
More to come later...
Event Related Links
StormCarib - Reports from the Caribbean Islands
Caribbean Weather Observations
(Disturbance Off Florida/aka 93L:)
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system
(Eastern Atlantic Wave/aka 94L:)
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system
| ltpat228 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 13 2006 09:31 PM |
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Re: Two Systems to Watch
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Jeff Masters is saying there's some thing to watch off the coast of my state, Florida.
What are your thoughts on this...in layman's terms, please.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 13 2006 09:58 PM |
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Re: Two Systems to Watch
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Currently. 9:54 pm EDT...0154Z, Satellites aren't indicating anything to be concerned with.
Heaviest convective areas are North of Barbados, SE Florida, E Central and SE Mississippi, and an area near 35N/ 51W (which should be moving away from the US).
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/natl/jsl-l.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 13 2006 10:59 PM |
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Re: Two Systems to Watch
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Quote:
Jeff Masters is saying there's some thing to watch off the coast of my state, Florida.
What are your thoughts on this...in layman's terms, please.
After reading All of the afternoon Area Forecast Discussions from New Orleans to Jacksonville. All of the NWS Offices are watching the area East of Florida.
As the models are forecasting some type of system to devlop in the next few days.
One model takes the "system" to the north.
While most of the remaining models take the "system" to the west and south over Florida. (Region of Florida under the system varies with the models.)
And into the GOM moving slowly westward. the level of "system" development ranges from a:
TUTT Low, now present N of Hispaniola,
a Hybrid system (Hank and Clark's area of expertise)
a split system, with the Lower Level moving North and the Mid Level moving South and West.
Until the newer Model Runs are out. You probably have a 50-50 chance of rain over the Florida Peninsula for the next few days. The Southern Half of the Peninsula is getting some of that rain now.
Scott, I see you online. What's your take?
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 14 2006 12:01 AM |
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Models and the TWO
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Just a quickand importantside note....Lokking on Satellite, the area east of FLorida is maybe inching south. The TWO states a future stationary movement, and the models show a "radial spread" of options (i.e. all directions). Typically when the models show this spread, the system will remain relatively stationary for the mid term according toTPC previous experience. Hence, the Outlook is calling for stationary and the models do not truely indicate movement in any particular direction. Of course, development is not a given either way either.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 14 2006 09:11 AM |
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Re: Models and the TWO
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The Area Forecast Discussion in Central Florida this morning is saying that there is a drying air effect north of the watervapor loop across southern florida regions and an ULL expected to cross over on Wednesday. Given this information, it does not sound like Florida Peninsula will be effected anytime soon with any more than the afternoon pop ups, if that. I guess we are lucky to have a magnet in reverse sending storms away rather than attracting them this season. I just hope it will let us have our afternoon heat breaking showers.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 14 2006 09:21 AM |
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Re: Models and the TWO
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I just finished looking at some loops....Water Vapor shows some dry air to 93L's west, but it also looks like that dry air is receding to the west, allowing some t-storms to fire up to the south of where 93L is .... I stared at those loops for a while and I really don't see any movement of the the LLC.
Of course, that's just what I'm seeing.
Whatever it is, it isn't very organized.
| Black Pearl |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 14 2006 09:37 AM |
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Re: Models and the TWO
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Floater 2 is on the system off the Florida coast.
Tropical Floater 2
| nc_tropical_wx79 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 14 2006 10:41 AM |
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Re: Models and the TWO
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we have 94L off the African coast! winds assoiated with it are already at 35 mph and it has impressive convection so far and a well defined mid-level circulation. It'll have to be watched along with the new low not too far from Vero Beach, FL.
| Nateball |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 14 2006 11:24 AM |
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Re: Models and the TWO
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Wow I was just looking at that wave 94L this thing is a monster, to me it looks like the strongest wave to come off of africa all summer. Something we need to keep an eye on.
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 14 2006 11:49 AM |
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94L
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Storms forming east (actually, usually SE) of the Cape Verde Islands have proven quite interesting in recent years; several strong, long-trackers, although thankfully they usually curve and die (or undergo extratropical transition) in the Central Atlantic. Some recent examples (and hopefully my facts are not too far off here):
2004: Danielle (August 13 - almost exactly 2 years ago) survived 10 or 11 days and peaked at approximately 95 kt
2000: Alberto (August 3) survived approximately 20 days (longest-lived Atlantic tropical cyclone to form in August), reaching hurricane strength 3 times (i.e., after weakening twice), and peaked at 110 kt
2000: Isaac (Sept. 21) survived approximately 10 days and peaked at 120 kt
1999: Cindy (Aug. 19) survived approximately 12 days, peaked at 120 kt, and came within approximately 325 nautical miles of Bermuda
1998: Jeanne (Sept. 21) survived approximately 10 days, peaking at 90 kt
-Brad
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 14 2006 12:49 PM |
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92-94
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First look I've taken in a day and a half or so. We may be back in business soon.
92L is still oriented so that the actual surface turning (maybe a trough now) is under northerly shear, while whatever convection is bursting is just a short distance ahead under its tandem anticyclone. not the first time this year i've seen a system fail because an upper low is chasing it with northerly shear. the trades seem to push just hard enough to keep any potential system in trouble. low confidence on the caribbean feature.
93L is a different story. it is hanging on the tail of a deep trough, that is splitting with a piece of upper energy set to tail back into the gulf... leaving some weak ridging to the north and a weak sort of anticyclonic environment aloft. the big deal today is that the thing has started focusing further west, just northeast of the bahamas. masters said something the other day that made perfect sense... if it develops further west, it's more of a threat to land (i.e., the influence of the ridge would be stronger, adding a westward component to the track). right now i'd expect scott's earlier analysis... that it can develop during the next 24-36 hours or so... to be the right path. hard to say exactly about track.. it's in sort of a col with variable strengths of steering wind with height.. a weak system would likely meander, with progressively stronger systems tracking first NW and then WNW and W. if a middle of the road type evolution takes place... probably more of a threat to florida and maybe georgia. don't think it would come this far north. if it tracks more north, might stall again and drift some. more to the south.. probably across florida, then gulfside.
94L... not a big deal. it's the impressive wave of the day. environmental conditions ahead are somewhat hostile, and it really doesn't have much time to organize. the wave as a whole may be interesting to watch, but if it develops early it'll probably just work its way so far northwest that it dies... if the wave remains well-defined several days further west it may be more of an interest.
that's a best early guess based on older model runs. i'll look at some newer stuff and update it if things have changed.
HF 1649z14august
| HurryCaneForm |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 14 2006 01:23 PM |
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Re: 92-94
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TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON AUG 14 2006
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED FROM JUST NORTH OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THR ATLANTIC
FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. A NEW CIRCULATION CENTER IS SHOWING SIGNS
OF DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...WHILE THE ONE FARTHER TO
THE NORTHEAST IS BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT REMAINS
NEARLY STATIONARY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.
A VIGOROUS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS PRODUCING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND HEAVY SQUALLS BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS. WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH
THIS SYSTEM TODAY. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TOMORROW. INTERESTS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
Seems that 94L has flared up some good convection off the coast of Africa. It caught my eye looking at the satellite imagery.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 14 2006 02:40 PM |
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Re: 92-94
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The system is slightly better organized then 12 hrs ago.....2 areas of lower pressures...but no dominate 1.....models still want the system further ENE...and I wouldnt be surprised if it does take over....nonetheless...it should get better organized tonight into tomorrow..and I would say there is slightly better then 50-50chance of this being a TD if not Debby later in the day Tuesday.... for now...only thing that can hamper this is the struggle between the 2 weak lows.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 14 2006 02:59 PM |
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Re: 92-94
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93L looks better than it did this morning; I believe TWC just said a recon is (tentavely) scheduled to go out tomorrow.
94L is definitely impressive! Our local met just mentioned it and said that sometimes when these big storms come off the coast of Africa they tend to fall apart + there is some dry air ahead of it. However, that could change. I hope this one becomes a fish spinner.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 14 2006 03:48 PM |
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Re: 92-94
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Regarding 94L, it's been my observation that these Lows which roll off the tip of Africa usually just fall apart long before ever having a real chance to become a depression. In fact, I believe the number that go on to TC is roughly just 13%. Even with that qualifier, the best I can tell - 94L is on the verge of being a TD, if it isn't already. With all of the tropical weather investigating going on this season out in the Cape Verdes, it will be fascinating to eventually read what they may have learned about and from 94L.
To me, 93L also looks like it could easily come together within 24 hours. Especially that newer center forming closer to Florida. Much better presentation this afternoon, as you say.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 14 2006 05:49 PM |
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Re: 92-94
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The center that is trying to form is near 28N and 75W......the weak low just east of florida has become embeded with the trough and the main low center forming.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 14 2006 06:18 PM |
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Re: 92-94
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Scott's post has the right idea folks. During the morning hours, the low moving south was quite apparent..into the midday hours, there appeared to be that low and another to the ENE that was evident from time to time. As the afternoon progressed, the general appearance has been that these two lows evolved into a broad elongated low pressure trough. Just about where Scott mentioned is a bout the middle of that area and is the place where I'd expect something has the best shot at consolidation. Maybe just a tad SW of there, but pretty close.
As for motion, I things Jeff Master's did an excellent job of breaking down the possibilities from what I read around 9:00AM. It's really to early for me to try and speculate where this may end up by looking at the models. Apparently, it's something that's gonna be around to watch for a few days though.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 14 2006 07:57 PM |
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Re: 92-94
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The latest model runs (from the front page) are interesting. Earlier this morning, they reminded me of a daddy long legs (minus 4 legs
); now, they remind me of the model runs for Jeanne...a loop de loop. Let's hope the model runs for 94L stay the same as they are now.
| amonty |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 14 2006 08:05 PM |
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Re: 92-94
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After looking at the last visual shots of the day it appears that 93L is mostly Upper Level. There doesn't appear to be much at the lower or mid levels. Save for a recent small burst to the south. It would probably take advantage of strengthening tonight since it's structure would support it. I'd say almost a TD by morning. As for direction it's probably too early to speculate but a very slow NW track is my best guess.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 14 2006 08:51 PM |
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Re: 92-94
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There is a weak upperlevel low just to its W. Thats what will help stear this NW.
| HurryCaneForm |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 14 2006 09:01 PM |
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Re: 92-94
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I've been watching 94L all day long, from work to right here at home. I don't know if it has a LLC at the moment but the NHC said that 40-50mph gusts were reported with this system. Still, it looks good tonight on satellite.
As for 93L, it is taking a breeze off the coast of FL. Hopefully, it's just a breeze...
Michael.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 12:07 AM |
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Re: 92-94
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may be me, but looks like the surface water temps in the GOM have jumped up alot in the last 10-15 days in the GOM... or the area of warm water temps has gotten bigger... Also looks like the Atlantic warmness is expanding to the east...Surface temperature (C) Also the NASA research project kicks off this week in the cape verde islands! Hurricane Heat potential (kcal/cm2)
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 12:57 AM |
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Re: 92-94
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Well 93l is looking rather..lackluster....it may develop some over the next 24 hrs ..but right now...its not tropical..if it was..T-Storms would be firing during the overnight hours.....so this is a hybrid type system that feeds off the daytime heating.....it could develop tropically..but prssures are rising now in the area as the trough moves out. Chance has gone down to 1 in 3.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 02:23 AM |
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Re: 92-94
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convection flashed out on 93L. it'll flash back in some overnight. should still be something to recon tomorrow. u/a is iffy as the surface low has started tracking n/nw. the system is bulging along the old frontal trough which should help it improve its identity... maybe increase convergence near the center rather than having the surface flow running more parallel-opposite on the old boundary.
old 92L has some more convection this evening. just a wave with some definition... the peak activity is a bit close to the larger islands to merit much concern.
94L is about as far out as it could be, and losing deep convection as the east atlantic environment takes over. may result in more of the wave energy propagating more westward (rather than nw over cooler waters)... and leave it with better chances of being something in the long run.
there is more convective activity in the eastern pacific right now than recently.. and the atlantic appears to be picking up a tad, too. the peak of the mjo lull may have passed.
HF 0623z15august
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 02:45 AM |
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Re: 92-94
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Quote:
The center that is trying to form is near 28N and 75W......the weak low just east of Florida has become embedded with the trough and the main low center forming.
I respectfully disagree with you if you are implying that this is where it will certainly end up being centered, or if this is where you say 93L is centered right now. While I have noticed , and mentioned in my post, the lower level circ in the 28N 75W area- by all appearances, it is not firmly at the surface, best I can tell. Additionally, this is not the only of the two spots where healthy convection keeps firing up - perhaps more importantly, not where there has been a no-brainer(!) low level circulation evident via Scatterometer - and, this is not where NRL has it analyzed, either. NRL has 93L analyzed at 26.8N 78W - (off the coast of SE Florida).
I concede that either one of these two locations may end up being the dominant low, but so far, I have yet to see compelling reason to believe that it will be 28N 75W. I think that for now, it is still up in the air - but, with Scat really showing off the LLC centered near 27N 78W, my money is still a little more on this one - should it actually TC, at all.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 03:12 AM |
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Re: 92-94
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there is a surface low in the area. the convection even died down so that we could see the low-cloud lines tailing around it. surface obs out there also imply a broad cyclonic flow all the way around the low position. the nhc and ncep are also analyzing a surface low at the location.
put it all together, the evidence is on the heavy side.
course, scott could be right. if convection hasn't returned en force by tomorrow afternoon the prospects will dwindle to near nothing. there's some tonight, but not enough to completely sell it.
HF 0712z15august
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 03:50 AM |
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Re: 92-94
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Well, I'll just go with the Obs from NDBC for a 120NM radius of each suspect area.
Broad low near 28N 75W:
observations from 08/15/2006 0400 GMT to 08/15/2006 0746 GMT
----------------------------------------------------------
SHIP S 0600 28.30 -74.10 51 69 180 15.5 - 1.6 1.0 - - 29.96 +0.03 80.6 82.4 71.8 6.2 6 - - - - - - - ---- -----
1 observations reported for 0600 GMT
(Pressure 29.96 and rising)
NRL's analyzed 93L at 26.8N 78W:
------------------------------------------------------
SPGF1 C 0700 26.70 -79.00 54 264 20 8 9 - - - - 29.90 -0.04 82.4 - 75.6 - - - - - - - - - ---- -----
LKWF1 C 0700 26.61 -80.03 109 264 320 4 6 - - - - 29.92 -0.05 78.4 83.1 - - - - - - - - - - ---- -----
2 observations reported for 0700 GMT
SHIP S 0600 26.50 -78.70 42 245 40 5.1 - - - - - 29.91 -0.02 82.6 - 77.2 - - - - - - - - - ---- -----
SPGF1 C 0600 26.70 -79.00 54 264 30 10 11 - - - - 29.91 -0.02 82.6 - 75.7 - - - - - - - - - ---- -----
LKWF1 C 0600 26.61 -80.03 109 264 300 4 7 - - - - 29.94 -0.03 78.8 83.1 - - - - - - - - - - ---- -----
3 observations reported for 0600 GMT
(Pressures are noticeably lower and falling)
Post Edited to remove table breaking dash line - Mike C.
| Solak |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 07:03 AM |
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Re: 92-94
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Coastal Carolina discussions are picking up on the SE Coastal low this morning. From the Charleston, SC Discussion in part ...
".MARINE...THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF LOW PRES TO THE SE THIS
MORNING...ONE NEAR 29N AND 74W...WITH THE SECOND NEAR THE NW
BAHAMAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ONLY ONE CENTER...WITH THEIR
INITIALIZATION GENERALLY BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS.
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST BEYOND TONIGHT DEPENDING UPON WHAT TYPE OF LOW
PRES DEVELOPS OVER THE SW ATLC. WE DO KNOW THAT WEAK HIGH PRES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THRU TONIGHT...WITH A COLD FRONT TO THE
DISTANT NW. BUT WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY THEREAFTER..."
| wereallgonnadie |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 07:48 AM |
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Re: 92-94
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Neither one of them look like much this morning.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 07:50 AM |
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Re: Two Systems to Watch
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I notice that the plotteed models haven't updated for awhile. Have they stopped tracking 93L & 94L?
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 08:47 AM |
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Re: Two Systems to Watch
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As long as they are still invests they will still keep running models on them. I also noticed that they don't look updated either, but the dates have 8/15 on them; may have been a very early run and probably the newer ones are not out yet. I did see some subtle differences in 93L's model plot.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 09:01 AM |
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93L
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This is an interesting satellite loop:
Water Vapor Loop
93L -- whether it's an ULL, MLL, or a hybrid, looks much healthier right now. I believe the reason for that is that the dry air to it's west is receding, the dry air to its north and west *almost* appear to be flattening out well above 93L, allowing more moisture into the system and as a result, it looks as though its trying to get its act together. My only question is this -- and I can't find a picture of this anywhere -- is will that dry air continue to flatten out moving 93L more W/NW or will that also recede allowing a more NW path.
Anyway, that's what I see this morning.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 09:16 AM |
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Re: Two Systems to Watch
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I dunno.. I saw and found no updates either. They still need to track 93L.. There are 2 possible scenarios with 93L. The low north-east of it is looking better, what I like to call the old 93L. Looks like that peice may develope and move towards the Carolinas in time. The one that were watching.. the real 93L looks like that will develop and move northwest into say Palm Coast or Saint Augustine, Florida. The low near Florida has a better chance but the low northeast looks better this morning.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 10:04 AM |
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Model Updates
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Just looked at the model plots on the front page: only one --- the GFDL --- was updated so far, the rest are still from yesterday. I'm not sure when they will be updated again, but I would think it will be in the near future.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 10:51 AM |
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Re: Model Updates
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94L has been dropped, latest models on 93L if anything shows a weak TS at 40Mph , track still up in the air.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 11:33 AM |
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Re: Model Updates
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Old Sailor, Dr. Masters agrees with your observation on 93L. Their web page has an updated plot map. Funny, SFWMD has nothing on theirs.
| nc_tropical_wx79 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 12:00 PM |
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Re: Model Updates
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A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED ABOUT 300
MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS. ALTHOUGH
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS MINIMAL AT THIS TIME...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON
WEDNESDAY...IF NECESSARY.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 12:06 PM |
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Re: 92-94
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The low that I said was forming was the one near 28N and 75W yesterday...didnt say it was well defined..also there was 2 lows in a trough ( which there still is) .... This area is still more of a trough and nontropical at this time....it could get better organzied as it moves towards the Carolinas on Weds....but pressures throughout the Atlantic continue to be high.
Too be honest with everyone..and its just my opinion....only areas probably able to develop will be the Gulf and western Carribean....The Pressures in the Atlantic are that of winter time...along with upperlows and dry air...conditions are not favorible anywhere....its just a whole mess........I feel this will continue...which brings part 2 of the season in the gulf and Carribean ...this will be our areas of intrest as pressures are generally lower.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 12:10 PM |
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Re: 92-94
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Yeah, it's just a really messy, disorganized system right now - NRL now has it pegged at the northern low - 30N/75W. It's academic at this point, as until it becomes clear that it will even TC, we won't know which low will truly be dominant.
It's not inconceivable that the lows develop independently, and split from each other. More likely, I think, that they merge, as one becomes clearly dominant. The northern (30N/75W) is now discernible at the surface on the latest Scat run, but appears quite open, while the center around the Bahamas is still arguably closed at the surface. My main reasons for preferring the southern feature have to do with the fact that, by reasonable measurements, it is already a closed-off surface low, has also shown some better tendency for pressure falls, and this one is not so much a part of the front as the northern low still is.
| nc_tropical_wx79 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 12:36 PM |
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Re: 92-94
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Looks like that low that is on the northeast side and associated with 93L has much less dry air to fight with and through. A ULL shearing the low North of the Bahamas has incidently spreaded moisture around to the low on the northeast.Dry air might not be whats the downfall of 93L now. Even with all that said for it to become the Debby it wants to be that ULL over Fl will have to move out of the way for any developement to occur.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 01:05 PM |
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Re: 92-94
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I dunno if i'm correct on what i'm seeing here but WFTV 9 shows the low under the low you are watching. See that clear area in the center of the disturbance??
I believe the low you guys are watching is a mid-level spin. I think the real one is starting to form...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg
I believe thats are true and dominent low. Looks like its all coming together now. All the clouds look like there swirling around this possible new low. Do you guys see this??
I deffinatly can. Pretty well defined to me. Interesting...
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 02:02 PM |
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Re: 92-94
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Interesting HPC Discussion this afternoon on 93L.
...SERN SEABOARD...
MID LEVEL LOW NEAR THE NRN BAHAMAS BEGINNING TO SHOW MORE SFC
REFLECTION WITH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION. MODELS AND ENSEMBLES
HAVE BEEN KEYING ON THIS SYSTEM FOR SEVERAL DAYS WITH BASICALLY
WEAK CYCLOGENESIS AND A WIDE RANGE OF POTENTIAL TRACKS AS THE MID
LEVEL TROF TO ITS NORTH LIFTS OUT. THIS AREA FROM THE BAHAMAS TO
OFF THE SC COAST IS A CLIMATOLOGICALY FAVORED AREA FOR TROPICAL
AND SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN JULY AND AUG. MOST OF
THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A NWD MOVEMENT TO NEAR THE NC CAPES
BY DAY 3 FRI THEN A S TO SW DRIFT BACK DOWN OFF THE GA COAST.
POSITIONS DEPICTED ON PROGS ARE FROM COORDINATION WITH TPC. RECON
AIRCRAFT SCHEDULED FOR WED.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 02:04 PM |
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Re: 92-94
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Now roughly 28N 76W
Looks like more and more of the agencies are splitting the difference between the two lows. A glance at the loops early this afternoon suggests to me that this was certainly reasonable. Will be interesting to see if today's convection can deepen about that mid-point, and lets 93 TD by tonight - I won't hold my breath. Would rather see a good round of nocturnal convection, personally.
| nc_tropical_wx79 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 02:05 PM |
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Re: 92-94
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This is a post from another site:
Models today also show not much of a window for 93L to develop. It could get some decent upper wind from 12-36 hours, but then an upper trough is forecast to dive down across the western Atlantic. At 48+ hours models show very strong n and ne shear across the southeast coast.
anyone and Mets can you give me your thoughts/opinions on this scenerio if it's valid or not and why?
| nc_tropical_wx79 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 02:57 PM |
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Re: 92-94
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I take it back what was stated in my previous post. Accuweather is reporting that the two lows off the SE are starting to show signs of a surface reflection. Also these two lows are either really close or they are consolidating into one main low. it's also getting it's act together could be on it's way to TD.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 03:00 PM |
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93;/gulf
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93 hasn't developed any deep convection today, but the surface windfield has become more organized. a surface trough still tails southwest of the center acting as a convergence front. the system is drifting nnw slowly. what's a tad surprising is that the thing is under a decent anticyclone aloft, but convection isn't breaking through whatever mid-level cap is in place to any real degree. surface pressures are also high, running an ambient 1018mb or so, with the low center at maybe 1014mb. one good convective flare is all that it needs, though.
interesting that the bit of mid-level energy that pushed off florida and the panhandle last night has refired and showing a general low-level cyclonic motion. the convection is fairly deep, and it is drifting slowly wsw over the high heat content region of the gulf. some of the globals saw this feature, though none really develop it. still, the u/a environment out there is decent, and that is some deep convection. it will be of interest to texas/ne mexico if the convection persists into tomorrow.
HF 1900z15august
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 03:19 PM |
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Re: 93;/gulf
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The new 18z suite of BAMs show an intial position of 93L at 30.4N-75W with a N-NW movement for the next 36-48 hrs. Thereafter, things get wild with the system pushed S-SW toward the NE FL coast. The BAMD actually pushes the disturbance W-SW across the peninsula into the central GOM in 5 days. What a strange track. The GFDL also shows the same motion. The system apparently will run into a building high off the mid-atlantic and whatevers left of it will get shoved S-SW, possibly into FL. I wonder if there have been any historical tracks of this sort - would seem extremely rare.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 03:23 PM |
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Re: 93;/gulf
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Although different, it would appear this may be destined to take on the track of a storm named Gordon (a few years back) .
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 04:17 PM |
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Re: Azores
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Pretty healthy looking low...STS?
Gulf could become the new hot spot pretty quickly, same for off the SE coast.
Almost showtime...
MM
| Shawn M |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 04:39 PM |
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Re: Azores
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Have to wait and see if the convection with the low in the gulf can hang on tonight. These things tend to lose the convection at night,however. I know the SST's are quite warm out there but I'm not sure if it will have enough time to do much.
Shawn S
| stormchasersince1976 |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 05:13 PM |
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Re: Azores
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What in the heck is that blow up in the GOM? Can any Mets tell me if the low is at the surface and where this is headed?
| HurryCaneForm |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 05:18 PM |
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Re: Azores
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An area os Low Pressure in the GOM? I don't know for sure. Seems like convection has popped up lately.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-l.jpg
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 05:24 PM |
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Re: READ THE UPDATE
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/152054.shtml
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 05:37 PM |
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Re: READ THE UPDATE
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I saw the GOM update, but don't see an invest, isn't that unusal?
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 06:04 PM |
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Re: Meanwhile
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And what is that NE of the islands that the floater is on, that looks to be getting better organized but was not mentioned the the TWOAT>?
MM
| weather_wise911 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 06:09 PM |
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Re: READ THE UPDATE
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An area of low pressure devleoped along the stalled fron..... same as 93L.
I`m not terribly impressed yet--I mean-- there`s a cluster of storms, big deal.
Storms develop in cluster such as this all the time... especially when they are aided by a low presssure area.
The convection will likely die out tonight, and re-fire tomorrow....... development from such a situation is--more often than not-- VERY slow.
WW-911
| stormchasersince1976 |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 06:12 PM |
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Re: READ THE UPDATE
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These areas do take time to develop, but this was the way Hurricane Alicia formed in August of 1983, so it bears watching for persistance.
| Cat 5orBust |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 06:31 PM |
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Re: Two Systems to Watch
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just looked at the spaghetti model on the colo state site for the system north of the Bahamas and on that it looks like they have the starting point (center) north of where it might actually be. if this system eventually does develop i think it will be situated a little south of where it might be now. i noticed 2 tracks have it actually heading southwest to the southern portion of FL. The belief is that when the high builds in, wherever it is at it will push it southwest, but that is after it tracks to the north a little bit. if it does not move to the north that much then it potentially could be pushed back closer to south fl. certainly going to be intersting to see what happens but it has a ways to go before development. as for the area in the GOM i just think it was a big blow up of convection and it wont hold together very long. certainly is heating up though. http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 08:14 PM |
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Re: 93;/gulf
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NHC mentions it in their tropical update. Says some slow development is possible. It is interesting to watch.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 08:21 PM |
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Re: READ THE UPDATE
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Alicia also formed in about that area where the blowup of convection is. If nothing else, it is interesting to watch but NHC did mention it.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 10:29 PM |
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95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site
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Hey folks...NRL has that GOM BLOB as 95L. Here's the link:
95L - GoM
It will be interesting to see what happens with this one. Gulf temps are warm, but I'm not sure what the other variables are out there.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 10:42 PM |
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Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site
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Shear is *extremely* low in the north-central GOM right now.
The trof which gave birth to this Low, is also now essentially history, leaving a pretty decent "pure" surface low in it's place -
One thing I am keeping an eye on - how the incoming MCS from the north interacts with the still embryonic and weak low. I suspect that too much outflow could snuff out whatever hint of nocturnal convection there is tonight - and perhaps completely disrupt the feeble organization. On the other hand, should that MCS cross over and into the area of pre-existing higher PVs and lower SLPs - maybe a recipe for TC -
Lots to be gleaned from here by daybreak, I think.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 10:47 PM |
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Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site
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I agree...it's hard right now to tell whether it's going to do anything or not. The next day or two shall tell the story. So, for now, I'm signing off. Have a good night!
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 10:56 PM |
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Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site
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Heh. No sooner had I stated that it looks like the trof has essentially washed out, Dr. Lyons during the TU mentioned that the Low has lost too much of it's convection - leaving a touch of a trof behind in it's wake - I'll certainly buy that - the convection went woooosh! - Still, upon very close inspection, I can find a low level swirl with some hints of small puffy clouds -- hints
It still looks to be 06, and not 05, that's for sure!
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Aug 15 2006 11:20 PM |
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Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site
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That nasty MCS is over my house right about now and headed south. Its blowing like a banshee with plenty of lightning......
Its interaction with the low out there could be very interesting. It could easily disrupt what little is left - the convection has basically evaporated along with the daylight this evening - or it could impart more energy to it, essentially giving it a "kickstart."
The latter would not be good.....
I suspect by morning we'll have somewhat more of a handle on this one. I would definitely not like to see a homegrown system - but there's very little shear over the gulf right now, and the SSTs are both warm and deep - down to 80' near the coast water temperatures are as high as 85F...... not good.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 12:52 AM |
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Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site
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that's the thing about MCCs. the convection goes out and if there isn't a feedback already started, there isn't much to get it going again over water.
it's still worth watching, but like 93L east of georgia... no convection means that whatever progress the system made in organization is withering on the vine. it's two steps forward and three steps back.
we've seen pretty much every system this month flash up, make a brief run at organization, and then waste away as convection fails to persist. in spite of a favorable synoptic pattern.. larger scale influences like MJO and the large areas of subsidence associated with the downstream regions from the large continental highs and the southward-displaced subtropical ridge have essentially everything choking. short of an MJO wave modifying things and giving everything an extra 'kick', it looks like we're waiting for the end of summer/early fall scenario where tropical ssts and tropical wave activity peaks, and mid latitude troughs become more amplified and stimulating to features in the subtropics prior to the late fall increase in upper winds.
just recently the westpac is cooled off a tad (and the huge monsoon trough has broken down to a degree), while the eastpac has reactivated... usually in the 6-10 day range after eastpac activity easterly anomalies start to jumble up the atlantic and take hold for 2-3 weeks.
one way or another our quiet period is likely to end soon. been a while since we got 'august lite'. there are two more weeks for the usual fare of recent years to start asserting itself.
usually starts to... right around august 20th.
HF 0451z16august
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 01:16 AM |
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Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site
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Overall, this weather pattern is highly complicated and there's a lot of competition in a small area folks. On analysis, I believe one of two things will happen: a.) No development at all or b.) the underdog no one thought of is gonna make a go for it...so here WE go. I'm gonna outline this below in three outline steps, but if something does develop from all of this, I'd have to believe it will be in the NW Bahama's.
First, I'd like to get into the Shortwave loop. (Once loaded, click on NWS Fronts at top of picture): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html
1.) Notice that pressures have dropped somewhat with the gulf low and the one off the Carolina's (most likely due to diurnal dynamics)
2.) If you have been using this NWS tool, you will know that the low in the gulf has moved slightly east (and is not where you'd neccisarily think it is until using this tool then looking at cloud movement), Also, the Low off the Carolina's is still progging NNW. I would also like for you to look closely along the trough line through the Bahama's, there is stil a mid-low level area...just to the Northeast of Grand Bahama (2 days and counting that it has been there, and 93L did not do much to it. It's just quietly sitting there). There is also a cold front in the central gulf states and a trough over Georgia. The circulation you see over Jacksonville is an Upper Level low. Then of course, there is an MCS moving into the Gulf, which has been enhanced by that upper level low, but of little consequence other than a moisture source for the eastern half of the GoMex.
Second, I'd now ask you to take a look at the water vapor loop (click on HDW-High on top of the picture, this is the upper level winds and I'd like you to use it as an aid): http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
Notice four things. 1.) By looking at the upper level wind barbs...the High pressure area in the Gulf is further west than the low and likely where most of us originally thought there might be some development. 2.) Looking at the upper low that was near Jacksonville, it is movong toward the southwest. It'sone thing that the lowest pressures in the gulf are further east, but it's significant that the upper low is moving toward it and pushing the ridge to the west farther away. 3.) The low approaching the Carolina's has had enough moisture and outflow to take advantage of (but it hasn't). 4.) the area of low pressure I referenced near Grand Bahama is under the influence of southerly flow that is not helping, but the low will continue to move SW over time.
Third, Models: Okay, in general...models have shown two camps (I am not addressing 95L at this time because I believe shear and interactions with the upper low will kill it over the Gulf of Mexico). One one hand, 93L moves close to the Carolina's, then peels out. On the other hand, it gets close then shoots to the SW. Over the last few days, we have had two low pressure systems off the east coast conncted by a trough ( one being 93L, the other being the one off Grand Bahama) as these systems have gained distance from one another, 93L has gained it's identity, but nothing else. I believe that the two model camps see two different things. On one hand, the models that peel off 93L to the north and east are seeing a system that gets caught up in the earlier referrenced fronts and troughs (which is quite possible looking at the trough in Georgia and the front behind it. Here is the NW Atlantic loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-avn.html
Looking at the other option, where 93L digs SW, I think the models are trying to tell us something. 93L will wash out or move out with the fronts, then the models dig SW to pick up on the low over the NW Bahamas which would have will take over...especially if the upper low continues to prog SW and West (hence the strange and erratic look of models going that direction)
In short, I believe 93L is running out of time and will not develop, 95L will shear out. The low near Grand Bahama will have an opportunity to become better defined as the upper level low moves SW-W and 93L heads out...but if it doesn't develop...then there will be no systems from this very dynamic and complicated pattern.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 01:38 AM |
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Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site
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Just and FYI, the NWS Fronts have been updated for the Gulfof Mexico on the satellite loops while I was typing my last post. They will not be exactly reflective of the plots I was outlining tonight in the Gulf of Mexico before, but the idea really does not change. Just providing a heads up.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 02:08 AM |
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*other
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my take is that 93L is still in the running, and it's the surface low progged to make a left turn off the carolinas that will be the part that goes. still no real convection, but the baroclinic zone stalling against it alongshore tomorrow should help increase convergence around the system and strengthen it.
95L doesn't do anything unless convection returns. probably won't. the new MCC roaring southward at it's surface trough will probably disorganize whatever was there.
the big other is what is going on east of bermuda. some of the globals prog that other post-frontal low out near 30/60 to persist and deepen a tad. it's over waters 28-29C, and actually has a spot or two of deep convection. longshot at a non-threatening system. another deep layer low northeast of bermuda is shown by some globals diving southward before lifting back out. has a history of deep convection as well. since we can't get anything purely tropical going, why not a hybrid or two?
longshots all. 93L has the best chance as of now.
HF 0608z16august
| Goosus |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 03:06 AM |
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Re: 95L (aka "GOM Blob") Now Up on NRL Site
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Wow, you don't see that everyday.
One moment you have a roiling twisting mass of deep convection in the gulf over warm waters, and a few hours later, the entire structure just flashes out of existance like turning off a light.
This season is damn peculiar.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 03:07 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: *other
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Noticed the area east of Burmuda too, but hadn't really focused on it yet due to the attention closer to home. It proabably has a better shot than anything we've been posting on the forum. 95L is definately a dead stick in the water. Since last posting, the upper low continues to prod along across FL and the upper dynamics across the gulf are quickly going south. In itself, the ridge over the western-central Gulf has lost the definition it had during the afternoon. 95L is a creation of similar dynamics of the MCS dropping into the gulf out ahead of the upper low. The current MCS will face a similar fate....it's over there. Water Vapor: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-wv.html
93L has missed the boat to grab decent outflow and water temps to develop, and it's now growing less defined as well. has multiple virticies on the loop...Attatched a pic. For tonight, here's the loop link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/ir2.jpg
That plus multiple vorticies along and to the east and southeast and the approaching weather to the west would indicate this is a dead stick too.
The area in the Bahama's is gonna get left behind by all parties...93L, 95L, and the upper low. The pattern will simplify and ridging will build in enough for this to have the best shot. Overall, I believe 93L, 95L and the Bahama's area will equal no named system, the trough extension through the NW Bahama's is the sleeper and has the best chances. Gonna have to go with the underdog on this one if anything happens at all.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 04:28 AM |
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Re: *other
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Hey, Dem. Well, I've sort of believed all along that the Bahamas center has had the slightly better long-term chances of the two lows which have been competing for the title of 93L (with the one to the north winning, of late). I would guess that should the Bahamas circ become dominant it will retain the 93L moniker - just a formal repositioning (again)
I'm not yet convinced that the northern low is a gonner, tho. While I see it rushing up towards the coast tonight, I think that it has some potential to get that baroclinic shot in the arm HF suggests. Still, if one even looks to where the convection has been growing overnight so far, it's the Bermuda portion, to be sure.
As for the GOM feature, I suspect that the increasing shear could be more transient than you anticipate. This has actually been forecast by the FSU shear model... to do just this, more or less. So, best I can tell, it is following the FSU TC analysis shear forecast, generally - and if this continues - shear would then relax to very low levels, soon again.
Rather suspect that these two MCSs have juiced up the GOM quite a bit (finally!) - so that with remaining trofiness draped across there - and perhaps even 2 very weak low centers that can still be made out tonight (best with the short-wave loops, imho) - we may still see some TC action there within 72 hours.
All in all, it's a very convoluted pattern - with just marginal to fair chances, each, I suspect. I guess I am not ready to write any of these off, just yet.
Oooh and re: HF's potential STS out near 60W - yeah, this one's been catching my eye for a while, too. I'm already counting on the reanalysis to upgrade Beryl's subtropical brother post-season, and possibly the first 92L of the season, as well - Believe that many more legit subtropical cyclones are out there than NHC has been calling all these years, to be sure. Here's a fascinating study on 45 years worth of Atlantic subtropical storms which was presented at the 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, if you haven't read it yet
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 08:12 AM |
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Re: *other
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I have never noticed such odd cloud formation and placements in the atlantic since I have been watching. The clouds seem draped in odd patterns like a poorly decorated christmas tree. It does not appear to have any particular pattern that you can read.
I guess the pattern splitting the levels of the storms away from each other is a protective feature this year. I am noticing the convection coming back this morning on some of the features. It is not a good year for profiteers to bet on hurricanes.
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 09:30 AM |
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Re: *other
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Hey Guppie, I was thinking the same sort of thing this am, it is a really weird pattern, isn't it, especially with that line of convection/convergence draped across the Atlantic, what an undulating snake of clouds!
Looks like we might get two systems out of the 'Bahamas mess"...looks like the northern one is about to go (if it doesn't make landfall first)...possibly another will set up off Fl in the NW Bahamas...
Meanwhile, the little system NE of the Leewards that I called attention to yesterday...seems like it is doing..something? Odd round pattern there this am, unusual....
It is said the atmosphere has 'memory' and patterns that you see over an over again are repeats of that memory....if that is true, with the washouts we have been seeing so far, wonder what that portends for the future.
Of course, if the atmosphere loses it's current 'memory' and makes a new one....that could be a whole differerent thing.
MM
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 10:31 AM |
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93L organizing
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definitely going to be a recon on 93L today as the low center is finally flaring convection on the western semicircle. it's almost directly over the higher heat content region of the gulf stream. also drifted about as far north as it's going to, as the shortwave is currently bypassing it and high pressure/northerly deep layer steering should start to influence it soon. the convective flare further south along the trough... where the other low center used to be more or less.. is robbing the inflow of 93L a tad, but is displaced far enough away that it more likely than not will just be a feeder band later on.
recon will probably result in classification of tropical depression 4 this afternoon. surface obs and structure don't suggest anything more than maybe a 25 kt/ 1014 mb depression right now. dependent on how well the convection holds up it has a chance of being tropical storm debby over the next day or so. the 5:30 TWO is by franklin and typically gloomy on the long term prospects.. an established system would be forced south/southwestward under increasing northerly shear during the next few days. chances of this thing becoming well-organized aren't that good during the next few. it may end up ashore somewhere between daytona and wilmington during the next couple days as well.
the latest mcc is drifting out into the gulf today. there are pre-existing surface boundaries out there from the last one, and a good bit of mid-level vorticity being injected into the region... have to see if the stuff flares back up today. very miniscule chances of anything unless there is persistent convection.
waves in the deep tropics look flat and dead today. itcz is in its normal position for this time of year. the lows out east of bermuda are weak and disorganized. nothing else on the scene.
HF 1431z16august
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 11:28 AM |
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Re: 93L organizing
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93L holding it's on. Quick glance at the Dvorak enhancement...looks like it 'might' go up0.5 at the 1745Z observation. Mainly due to persistance.
I don't see much change in the cloud top temperatures between 1145Z and 1415Z. But it's still early.
95L
Pre 95L, or whatever you would like to call the MCC that ripped through AL/ MS last evening. I haven't heard that many reports of trees down since the " K" Storm last year.
Most if not all were straight line winds. But the system managed to close portions of I-59 (Jones and Covington Counties), US HWY 49( Forrest County) and several rural roads for 2-3 hours. Due to trrees and power lines being blown down.
WLOX-TV (Biloxi) reported that people on or near the Coastal Counties were still without power at 6 AM this morning.
A few posts back someone mentioned the MCC #2 disturbing MCC #1. That still looks possible. However the Morning TWD throws a bit of wrench into that theory. Here's the GOM portion of the TWD:
...DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SHORTWAVE IR IMAGERY SHOWS A COUPLE LOW TO MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS IN THE CENTRAL GULF...WITH THE MOST OBVIOUS NEAR
25N87W. BUOY OBS ALSO NOW SHOW CLEAR CYCLONIC TURNING AND CONFLUENCE IN THE CENTRAL GULF WHICH HAS LEAD TO THE TROUGH
PLACEMENT ON THE INTERMEDIATE 16/0900 UTC MAP.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 23N TO 29W BETWEEN 86W AND 93W. THESE SHOWERS/TSTMS ARE MOVING NE TO SW BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH NEAR SRN ARKANSAS AND THE UPPER LOW JUST N OF TAMPA.
UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS HELPING THE CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION SEEN S OF THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST NEAR 28N91W.
SHELL PLATFORM 42362 IS IN THIS VICINITY AND SHOWED THAT 30KT ENE WINDS MIXED DOWN AT 0800 UTC. DOPPLER RADAR ALSO SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS JUST OFFSHORE FT MYERS...ASSOCIATED
WITH INSTABILITY AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW.
16/0000 UTC GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THIS HANDLED WELL...SHOWING A DISTINCT REGION OF 500MB POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION IN THE REGION WHERE THE SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OFF W FLORIDA. MUCH OF THE WRN GULF BETWEEN 93W AND 98W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER. SYNOPTIC SURFACE PATTERN IN THE GULF IS IN A VERY WEAK
PRESSURE PATTERN AT THE MOMENT.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/161050.shtml?
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 01:31 PM |
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Re: 93L organizing
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The 1041Z QuikScat pass over 93L was exceptional - clearly showing that the northern center has become truly dominant today. With the deeper convection now firing over the center of this large cyclonic flow, I suspect TD 4 is almost inevitable today.
There was a fascinating feeder band- like feature overnight some of you may have caught - a line of convection, not a perfect feeder, but similar, with several embedded centers of very high vorticity - in fact, I suspect that these were possibly some low-topped supercells.
95L strikes me as another possible slow-starter. Lots of vorticity now exists in the GOM, combined with a now much juicier environment, and some remaining trofiness. As mentioned above, surface obs and high-res close-ups of Satellite suggest that a few lower level circulations still exist, as well. SSTs are very warm in the central GOM, especially so with the recent spin-off of a very potent LCE. Wind shear will be increasing from the westward-moving ULL, but this may prove to be more transitional, than long-term. All-in-all, there seems to be many of the right "ingredients" for some gradual TC baking.
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 01:47 PM |
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93L QuikScat
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For those interested in the "exceptional" QuikScat pass to which Cieldumort is referring, you can find it on the NRL site. I believe this URL will work for a few hours: NRL QuickScat image
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 01:53 PM |
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Re: 93L QuikScat
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000
URNT11 KNHC 161625
97779 16204 40325 85000 70100 99005 64732 /5765
RMK AF300 01FFA INVEST OB 02
;
looks like the plane is out. the radar signature right now is marginal for a tropical depression. convection is generally increasing, though.
current movement is a slow NW drift. it seems to be in the early stages of a left turn.
HF 1753z16august
| BillD |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 04:03 PM |
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Re: 93L organizing
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Quote:
recon will probably result in classification of tropical depression 4 this afternoon. surface obs and structure don't suggest anything more than maybe a 25 kt/ 1014 mb depression right now.
You were pretty much right on HF, vortex just out has it at 1012 (extrap) and 25kt.
Bill
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 04:11 PM |
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Re: 93L organizing
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NHC not going with a TD as of yet despite that information...
4:05pm Special Disturbance Statement...
Code:
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 25 MILES PER HOUR IN A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS NOT YET BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION AND ADVISORIES ARE NOT BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME.
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 04:15 PM |
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Re: Question
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In re: new TD (will soon be if not already) was sure it would be upgraded based on wind field and speeds analyzed (see link in previous post to satpic on NRL site). Interesting to note 45+ knot winds down in the Bahamas too...but, those and the stronger sectors around 93L might be rainflagged.
The only reason 93L might not be classified is due to very weak winds seen on e-side (normally the stronger sector in this case) and lack of convection...but convection is filling in, it seems.
MM
Edit note: the STDS was coming out as I was typing...I figured TPC might go conservative at this point due to the factors I mentioned...
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 04:24 PM |
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Re: Question
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well.. i guess that more or less means that a depression over water has to have sustained winds around 25kt to be classified. that's the weakest you'll ever see nhc classify a depression at. it's under radar coverage, so if there is any marked improvement in structure during the evening or a ship reports winds at that level, they'll probably tap it up a notch.
most of the dynamic models and the gfdl are running it southwestward in the general direction of the georgia coast. the worst that can be expected is a weak tropical storm (provided it doesn't get over into the gulf this weekend). it doesn't have a great deal of time before the u/a environment starts to deteriorate... so if it isn't cranking up by tomorrow morning, probably nothing out of this one.
HF 2024z16august
| MapMaster |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 04:39 PM |
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Re: TD criteria
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I think the ..."few isolated thunderstorms" comment in the STDS holds the key to why it hasn't been upgraded yet...no systemic 25 kt or higher winds.
MM
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 05:10 PM |
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Re: TD criteria
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I concur, at least in general. The "disturbance" vs. "TD" call at this point strikes me as a rather subjective one, however. There is likely already sufficient room for going with an upgrade, if they wanted to.
To be blunt about how fine a line this call was - it would take nothing much more than even a slight tightening of the pressure gradient - or another - and not even necessarily intense - convective burst, to put 93 over the top and be a no-brainer TD or possibly an easy push up to marginal TS - ps: "over the top" for 2006, anyway
| HurryCaneForm |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 06:02 PM |
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Re: TD criteria
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Is 93 L moving at all or is it just sitting there off the coast of the Carolinas? Been there for days haven't it?
Michael.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 06:13 PM |
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Re: Question
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Well, regarding further strengthening, Dr. Lyons just suggested "that narrow window may have actually passed already," which, if that's the case, 25 at the surface will have been the strongest this thing ever got up to - and as such, I suppose I would have to commend NHC for not pulling the TD trigger - Annoying, alarming, and not the best application of the science to have a "TD" last one whole advisory, I tend to think.
That blast of shearing and dry jetstream is coming in from it's northwest - if it doesn't start to nudge a bit southwest or south and get out of it's way, it probably looks like poofsville for 93l.
I like what's going on in the GOM, except the ull is now starting to take it's toll - will probably still come into Texas as a ull with some degree of surface reflection, and I'm hoping we'll see some rain - would prefer it to come in as a TD or weak TS that doesn't stall, to be candid, as we are that far behind, but I just won't hold my breath with the strong upper level winds now pushing through.
Getting back to 93, tho - think it's important to wait and see if we have an overnight/early am convective max. that pulses it up and gives it a fighting chance, before we write it off.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 06:16 PM |
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Re: TD criteria
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It's fairly stationary, but has had some position changes due to where the center has reformed - and has otherwise tended to drift, perhaps to the n, then ne, then nw, wnw, etc. you get the idea - if it doesn't get decapitated within the next 36 hours, most reliable models suggest it heads sw
| weather_wise911 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 07:12 PM |
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Re: TD criteria
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Quote:
To be blunt about how fine a line this call was - it would take nothing much more than even a slight tightening of the pressure gradient - or another - and not even necessarily intense - convective burst, to put 93 over the top and be a no-brainer TD
It seems this could be the case. 93L has developed some deeper convection the last hour or so............
-we`ll see,
Weather_Wise911
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 07:22 PM |
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Re: TD criteria
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Quote:
It seems this could be the case. 93L has developed some deeper convection the last hour or so............
-we`ll see,
Weather_Wise911
The NHC's 530pm ET TWO flat-out says "THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS WESTWARD...BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
BECOME INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT ON THURSDAY"
It seems like they expect it to fall apart, so they are holding the trigger back until there is clear and irrefutable signs of a tropical depression. Looking at the IR loop, I see weakening convection, not strengthening. It might blossom overnight, but it's got a ways to go.
I think it's interesting that the NHC doesn't even mention the probably SW track toward the Georgia/Florida east coast, which is where most of the models put this thing.
|
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 07:34 PM |
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93L
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Vortex Remarks Section:
URNT12 KNHC 162248
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/22:35:20Z
P. AF300 01FFA INVEST OB 22
MAX FL WIND 26 KT SW QUAD 20:02:20 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT. NO LONGER ANY WELL-DEFINED RADAR BANDING FEATURES AROUND CENTER.
;
(Possibly, the single most important part of this Vortex Report.~danielw)
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 07:42 PM |
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Re: TD criteria
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You are correct. There seem to be thunderstorm towers going up around the possible center. 93L still has a chance on developing before the shear really gets cranking...Interesting what Jeff Masters had to say in his updated blog. He mentioned themodels indicated 100-150 knot shear over the system by tomorrow night. However, the most shear he has ever seen to affect a tropical system was about 70 knots. Looks like the shear will be very severe by tomorrow.
Here's his blog: http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=463&tstamp=200608
Side note...93L got a little better organized today than I expected and I personally couldn't find any indication of a low in the NW Bahama's throughout the day...so I believe it went poof, and any thoughts of that ever having a development shot bunked out with it. I respect Mr. Masters' insight and he mentioned this upcoming trough with high shear will make it as far south as Florida...so in the end...even if that Bahamas area had evolved into the dominant low, it likely would have met the same and likely future demise of 93L.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 07:50 PM |
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Re: 93L
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Being that the vortex message is over an hour old...it hasn't captured the recent development of thunderstorm activity around the center. It is possible that we are seeing a little reorganization here...and the bands performing a dissapearing act may just be temporary.. Also important is that the recon was still putting out a vortex, so it is still a closed low. If this shear hits it like everyone thinks...this is really moot for debate cause the Invest will die in about 24 hours...but, we have something to chat about for now.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 08:03 PM |
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Re: 93L
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At 2256Z Recon began their climb from 929m (3047ft), to their current altitude of >21,000ft.
URNT11 KNHC 162324
97779 23224 40319 80000 60900 06023 59682 /8038
RMK AF300 01FFA INVEST OB 24
LAST REPORT
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 08:08 PM |
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Re: TD criteria
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Re: the NW Bahamas circ
From the 2PM TWD
"...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER NOW IS NEAR 33N76W.
THE DUAL LOW CENTERS OF YESTERDAY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN JUST EAST OF FLORIDA COMBINED INTO ONE LOW CENTER DURING
THE LAST 24 HOURS..."
( THE DUAL LOW CENTERS OF YESTERDAY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN JUST EAST OF FLORIDA COMBINED INTO ONE )
Take some credit
- turns out they merged afterall, best NHC can tell
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 08:12 PM |
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Re: 93L
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If I follow where you are going with this...Recon will typically gain altitude when expecting to encouter a turbulent t-storm...Without knowing for sure, I'd have to say they are doing just that now...Unless they are packing their bags and heading home for the evening. On another thought, HF's call several hours ago (Mid-late afternoon) that 93L seemed to making the left turn were definately correct...I think it may even be making a harder left turn again since...I think we've seen a slight reformation to the south. Are you picking up coordinates in those Vortex Messages? Was wondering if 93L being a bit further south now was the case.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 08:21 PM |
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Re: 93L
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They were already on their way out -- LAST REPORT indicates that they are out of the area and heading home. The lat/lon of the report was 31.9N, 80W, on the southwest periphery of the storm. Next scheduled recon fix is for 12z tomorrow, with 6hrly fixes if the system develops...so I guess it's satellite and radar for the overnight.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 08:39 PM |
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Re: 93L
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Dr Lyons TWC stated in his hurricane update that 93 L is weak now and falling apart, and that nothing is brewing in the Atlantic Basi, and probably won't for the next few days at least.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 11:07 PM |
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Re: 93L
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gee... u.s. models are showing a hell of a northerly jet over this thing by friday. winds are strong even down to the 500mb level, but h20-h50 shear is like 40kt alone. h20-h100 is something on the order of 75kt. that's so high it's almost hard to believe. to a defined storm it would be a dramatic end.. to a low level swirl with a few puffs of convection... well, it's like a mack truck going over a chipmunk.. the chipmunk is small enough that it might still be there if it stands still. not to say that anything will be left of 93L. the happy phase of mjo apparently isn't here yet... or maybe its just 2006 in general (can't really say yet.. the former is more likely), because in many recent years that swirl would have popped some convection and come right to life.
the eastpac is alive now with hector... as of yesterday. gfs has some stuff out in the atlantic roughly in the 'week later' range that would tend to go with a passing mjo wave. SOI was deep into the tank earlier this month.. could be the start of an ENSO rather than the pulse of easterlies that keeps the tempo up on the atlantic side. it coincided with the huge monsoon trough/typhoon outbreak in the westpac. not sure if it's an mjo wave alone or more related to the tropical pacific trying to warm. it'll still take months for an ENSO to get going over here.. would be late fall at earliest... so in the meanwhile it could just be something that will make the atlantic go crazy when it shows up. kinda hard to put my finger on this year.. other than to say a lot of things that normally would happen during the 'multidecadal active period' we're in have been fouling up this late summer.. and i'm not entirely certain of the cause.
HF 0307z17august
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 11:41 PM |
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utterly weird
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take a look at the tiny vortex near 35.2/70.5. it's like a rabid little supercell or something. i've been watching that thing since yesterday, not sure what to make of it. most of the vorticity is likely aloft, but that little bugger is really spinning.
HF 0341z17august
| wereallgonnadie |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 16 2006 11:46 PM |
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Re: utterly weird
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I think your subject heading describes this season very well. On the other hand a lot of people probably feel that watching a little supercell is the most excitement they want to have after the last two years.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 17 2006 04:04 AM |
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Re: utterly weird
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Yeah - certainly not a supercell -- but I know what you mean - and I was using that term loosely yesterday, myself - tho, I'm fairly certain that a few of those strongest cells must have had some mesos in them at some points ...
That feature, at this hour, looks like it should be 96L .. but, it won't be.. not this year, anyway
Nice low-level circ with oodles of spin, HF! Some associated deep convection to boot! I wouldn't want to be a small craft navigating into that thing right now, I'll tell you that! Would betcha winds are gusting over 35 knots in it right now!
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 17 2006 05:31 AM |
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Re: utterly weird
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OK, I can see that I'm just about the only one who really likes to pay attention to what these things do overnights, eh?
First things first - 93L Noteworthy notes:
COC *very* near coming ashore. Upper-level shear has not yet impacted it as harshly as suggested by many, so far. 00Z runs nearly all drive COC to the southwest, now. (Maaaaybe, it evades destruction.)
Obs in the immediate area late tonight are strongly hinting that perhaps NHC should have given 93 the benefit of the doubt, yesterday. We probably have some 25 knot, non-convective, sustained surface winds now. Lots of obs coming in at between 15 and 18 knots, and keeping in mind these are remote, few, and far between, I would buy right into a call of max sustained 25 knots, in general - and perhaps up to 30 knots within convective squalls.
As I type this we have some renewed deeper convection tonight blowing up south, southwest, and northeast of the COC, with some banding within the larger cyclonic sphere of influence, as well.
Quite possibly getting a baroclinic boost, I'll concede. But, I don't care. 93L is most likely a Depression in my book. My .02, guys and gals.
Next 95L - A lot more models suggesting a deeper surface low makes it into Texas. The NAM experimental WRF keeps bringing us a landfalling TS. Other major models vary by some degrees, but all generally suggest at least a mid/upper low with an accompanying surface trof or reflection pushes inland. Here in central Texas we *really* need the rain. Right along the coast, I'm not so sure they want any more tropical downpours. Mixed bag for Texas. Need more time to see what kind of system unfolds.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 17 2006 05:40 AM |
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Re: utterly weird
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We have a little spinner off the west coast of Florida this morning. I wonder how it will interact with the little spinner off the Carolina Coast. I am also wondering about the showers over Florida today as well. We had a terrific tS last evening with brief heavy down pour. I heard what sounded like a downdraft a couple of times. It was significant enough that my dog barked at it a couple times and went to the door thinking that there was something to protect us from....
These little skirmishes are more interesting than hurricanes!
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 17 2006 06:01 AM |
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Re: utterly weird
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Yeah, that spinner off the west coast of Florida is the ULL - TUTT Low, if you will. From the looks of things, it's fairly juiced up, and probably working it's way into the mid-levels. The WRF really wants to make it meld somehow with 95L and come into Texas as a tropical storm. Would be a bit of a rare evolution.