(Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 12:05 PM

Ivan/Dennis wannabe?

Reposting HF's most recent post from the very end of the last thread for everyone's benefit:

Quote:

stuff from yesterday... looks like the eastern/central gulf options are becoming more favored by the models and officially by the NHC. the uncertainties remain in how much the ridge decays to let the storm up (not much run to run consistency on that point), and a new one today: why is intensity guidance weakening the storm over the central gulf? i think that may be a model fluke with the upper ridging (i.e., the storm will be generating a good bit) and exactly where the upper low to the west ends up after tailing into the western gulf.
the only good thing i can see in the long range is that while ernesto may become quite powerful as it crosses the high heat region in the central gulf, there's a lot of zonal shear over the u.s. and it extends down very close to the coast. again, it may or may not be a fluke, but the GFS pushing the ridging away and developing southwesterly shear over the region the storm would be in could signify another instance (like with Katrina, Ivan, etc..) where shear helps spin down an intense hurricane to where the winds aren't strong enough to totally demolish structures.. but that doesn't do much for surge potential.
with more of the models showing a weakness over the southeast i'm more comfortable degrading the threat to areas further west, i.e. texas and the western half of louisiana. still don't see any reason it would curve sharply enough to impact peninsular florida. i can't really say anything makes sense besides the area shown in the NHC cone. noticed their late trend in the last advisory is to turn the storm more sharply near the end of the run.. and they usually drag the forecast track over gradually, which implies they might take it a little further later today (unless a bunch of models flip back further west).
i'll set my first thrat swath from grand isle to cedar key. the region of emphasis is the florida panhandle. likely threat range is a category 2-3 hurricane at landfall. time centered during the afternoon on friday, september 1.
elsewhere...
that little low on the decaying front off georgia is still there today. in a shear zone and not serving as much of a convective focal point right now... upper ridging should dominate the area by tomorrow, so if it keeps popping convection, might merit more interest. probably won't move much... out to sea is most likely in the long run.
debby is now forecast to die before being absorbed by a front. might make a little resurgence, but never got near as strong as i thought it would.
low from a washed out tropical wave moving off africa is broad but well defined. going to move through a fairly dry area with marginal SSTs.. not likely to do much developing for the next couple days. if it can maintain definition further west, could enter the mix as something down the road. tis the season.
another decent wave will come off sunday or monday.
HF 1550z26august

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 12:12 PM

Re: Ivan/Dennis wannabe?

Clark, HF, and any other gurus/experts... HF's comments about the target shifting to the Panhandle aren't surprising to me because I've been thinking the same thing since I looked at the new model runs, but the intensity forecast is what I'm curious about. NHC forecast calls for a 115mph storm offshore of the Louisiana delta in 5 days. Shift that a bit eastward, as I expect the NHC to do if the next model run backs up the last one in seemingly putting a target on our backs here in the panhandle... but HF thinks it could be a strong Cat 2 (or a Cat 3)? Is there something that could potentially keep Ernesto from strengthening beyond a "minimal" Cat 3, beyond history? Opal, Ivan, and even Katrina all began to weaken before landfall. Given what happened last year, I think it's certainly possible that Ernesto could really strengthen tremendously in the GOM (beyond minimal Cat 3). The loop current isn't any less hot is it?

oh, it'll probably be a category 4 or worse.. over the gulf. the 2/3 thing is because nine times out of ten hurricanes are weakening at landfall as they recurve in the gulf. -HF

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 12:14 PM

Re: Ivan/Dennis wannabe?

I remember last year before Katrina made second landfall in LA that they were saying storms tend to weaken slightly right before landfall. Not always, but it's very common. Not weaken greatly, necessarily, but they can and do.

I don't remember the explanation for this, but I DO remember that being said. I'm pretty sure it was Lyons on TWC who was talking about that.

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 26 2006 12:22 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Please continue to emphasize that the center of circulation is what is tracked, the outlying areas are dangerous from a tropical storm or hurricane when it interacts with the conditions around it, so that the West Coast of Florida if in the outlying bands could feel as much damage from small tornados as any other afternoon thunderstorm. The tracking of the center is interesting, but the danger is still not knowing how to prepare until about 3 days before it gets to your area. Do not assume it is not going to affect you until it is past your latitude/longitude and has been declared a non-storm by the NHC or NWS.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 26 2006 12:23 PM

Re: Ivan/Dennis wannabe?

I think I remember the discussion saying something about the shallower water and land interaction didn't allow the same level of strength to retain. Think about the size of a large storm - much of it will be overland weakening before the core strikes.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 12:28 PM

Re: Ivan/Dennis wannabe?

Quote:

I think I remember the discussion saying something about the shallower water and land interaction didn't allow the same level of strength to retain. Think about the size of a large storm - much of it will be overland weakening before the core strikes.

The reason seems to be exactly that. A typical hurricane, whatever that is, requires some 22,000,000 gph. That water generally needs to be at least 80 degrees for up to 50 feet depth( but not always-like Gamma last season). As the systems move closer to shore, because of the less deep water, there is simply less to feed on and it's moving over land also also, well before the eyewall.

Ron Basso

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 12:31 PM

Re: Ivan/Dennis wannabe?

Quote:

I remember last year before Katrina made second landfall in LA that they were saying storms tend to weaken slightly right before landfall. Not always, but it's very common. Not weaken greatly, necessarily, but they can and do.

I don't remember the explanation for this, but I DO remember that being said. I'm pretty sure it was Lyons on TWC who was talking about that.

What typicaly happens, as HF alluded to, is that as the storms move north and then N-NE nearing 30 deg LAT, they are increasing influenced by upper level westerly winds. This increasing shear component typically weakens these storms slightly (say from CAT 4 to CAT 3) prior to making landfall.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 12:34 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

Please continue to emphasize that the center of circulation is what is tracked, the outlying areas are dangerous from a tropical storm or hurricane when it interacts with the conditions around it, so that the West Coast of Florida if in the outlying bands could feel as much damage from small tornados as any other afternoon thunderstorm. The tracking of the center is interesting, but the danger is still not knowing how to prepare until about 3 days before it gets to your area. Do not assume it is not going to affect you until it is past your latitude/longitude and has been declared a non-storm by the NHC or NWS.

The west coast will also be vulnerable to storm surge, depending on how close to land the storm gets and what angle it comes in, because the eastern side of the storm will be pushing water up into shore.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Aug 26 2006 12:46 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

is it just me, or does ERNESTO look like its taking a jog to the north, as of right now i see this storm going a little further north than jamaica, (maybe the jamaican jog)

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 12:47 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

That's what I was saying a couple of hours ago, but I don't know if it's a true wobble or just an optical illusion because of the shear.

Thunderbird12

(Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 12:47 PM

Re: Ivan/Dennis wannabe?

I believe another reason that strong hurricanes tend to weaken as they approach the Gulf Coast is the cyclic nature of strong hurricanes. The loop current is positioned in such a way that rapid intensification usually occurs when the storm is at least 1-2 days from landfall. Since very intense hurricanes tend to go through eyewall cycles, storms are usually on the downward trend of one of those cycles as they approach the coast, which combined with the other factors mentioned (less deep warm water available, increasing likelihood of shear and/or dry air impacting the storm as it moves away from the tropics towards the continent, etc.) leads to a weaker storm. Obviously, when a monster like Katrina develops, it will be capable of producing a catastrophe even in a weakened state, but when a cat 3-4 storm weakens to cat 1-2 before landfall, that is a huge difference.

Storms approaching the peninsula of Florida are not necessarily subject to the factors above and some famous storms (Andrew, Charley) in that area were rapidly intensifying as they made landfall. I don't recall the last strong hurricane along the northern Gulf coast (LA, MS, AL, FL panhandle) which did not weaken prior to landfall, though.

Hopefully Ernesto won't put these theories to the test as a major hurricane in the Gulf, but that appears to be a possibility. As for why the intensity guidance doesn't strengthen Ernesto after 96 hours, that is difficult to say. Increasing shear would be the most likely suspect, but the last NHC discussion suggested that whatever the reason is, it isn't obvious. Perhaps it is a combination of small factors, like slightly increasing shear, an intrusion of somewhat more stable air into the Gulf, etc.

StormHound

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 26 2006 12:51 PM

Re: Ivan/Dennis wannabe?

Quote:

What typicaly happens, as HF alluded to, is that as the storms move north and then N-NE nearing 30 deg LAT, they are increasing influenced by upper level westerly winds. This increasing shear component typically weakens these storms slightly (say from CAT 4 to CAT 3) prior to making landfall.

Let's remember that these are general trends and though perhaps more storms weaken as they get close to land not all do. One only needs to go back to Hurricane Andrew to see the exact opposite phenomenon. It might be possible to generalize that storms heading north/northeast within the central Gulf of Mexico tend to weaken prior to landfall. Even then, other atmospheric conditions likely play a larger role than water depths over short (24 hour) time periods.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Aug 26 2006 12:52 PM

Re: Ivan/Dennis wannabe?

Quote:

I don't recall the last strong hurricane along the northern Gulf coast (LA, MS, AL, FL panhandle) which did not weaken prior to landfall, though.

Camille

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 26 2006 12:54 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

For a 5-6 day outlook Hank has it pretty much right now....Im maybe slightly east more of Mobile-Sarasota...but Ill wait 3 days out till make any offical landfall (as does the NHC)...even then there is a margin of error....but anyways..thats my early guess..

Reasoning for that is all the models agree on the ridge decaying over the eastern Gulf..and also there might be a midlevel low coming W from just E of the bahamas on Sunday..crossing florida and into the eastern gulf .....causing Ernesto to bump around it and getting some shear in days 5-6. It all has to set up though....So expect Ernesto to move wnw towards Jamaica on Sunday...and turning NW later in the day and by Monday nearing the Isle of Youth..and crossing near Havana moving NNW slowing some more...As the midlevel low moves in conjuction with Ernesto..expect him to slow and move N or NNE then feeling the trough by Weds and then landfall sometime between then and Thurs.... Strengthwise I expect him to be a hurricane by later Sunday... and could get really strong Monday night before settling down somewhat Tuesday into Weds due to the midlevel low shearing...Landfall cat 2-3 for now..

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Aug 26 2006 12:59 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Does anyone think that SOUTH florida is out of the woods yet? please give some feedback

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 26 2006 01:00 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

when it gets past 80dg...sure...unless you live Marco Island.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Aug 26 2006 01:03 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

sorry man but the new GFS as of now takes it along the Floridas west coast. Something to watch.. Models are switching to the east every new run.

(User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 01:04 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

I would say no, not out of the woods yet...But on the basis that the error cone slides just along the west florida coast.In the event that Ernesto did move along the eastern edge of the cone, it is important to note that tropical stormforce winds currently extend 115 miles from the center. So it's worth keeping an eye on it should it take the eastern periphery track.

Texas Cane Tracker

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 01:07 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Reading some of the recent posts, one might get the impression that Texas is "out of the woods" now. Granted the NHC has shifted the course East of its previous advisories, but the course could just as easily shift back West over the next few days. This is a very fluid situation and hopefully everyone along the gulf coast will continue to monitor Ernesto over the next several days.

BLTizzle

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 01:17 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

here's a possible answer to your Ivan/Dennis wannabe

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prelims/2004ivan11.jpg

that is the complete track of ivan.....compared to....

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT05/refresh/AL0506W5_sm2+gif/144727W_sm.gif

deja vu all over again.....

Sarg

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 01:23 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

I am new to the forum and also learning about hurricanes and all of the information and explanations you provide are awesome. Does someone have a link that shows all of the different computer models? What are the odds of this thing hitting the Tampa area?

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 26 2006 01:24 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Everytime I look at the visible loop, I'm amazed at all the dynamics that are going on, especially all the LLCs spinning about near the surface. Ernesto has held together quite well, but I believe the intensity forecasts right now are a tell tale sign of the challenge ahead for Ernesto to strengthen significantly to a cat III. The ULL just to the west looks quite strong, but beyond 72 hrs, there is considerable divergence among forecast models at this time. That being said, any speculation about landfall intensity in the Gulf is very premature. Ernesto has to get past Jamaica and west Cuba first. Once this thing reaches the Gulf, it looks like it will slow down considerably. It's going to be one wild ride over the next week.

cgs500

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 01:24 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

I am sure that you see an influx of unregistered users during tropical activity, include me in that count. My family and I will be heading to Orlando on Tuesday, August 29th for a conference. My concern is the possibilty of us using a hotel room that someone from an evacuation zone might need. My question is this...should I worry about it? sorry if this is off topic.

Thanks,

Kev from OH

chase 22

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 01:27 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

I am new to the forum and also learning about hurricanes and all of the information and explanations you provide are awesome. Does someone have a link that shows all of the different computer models? What are the odds of this thing hitting the Tampa area?

check out this link at th bottom of the page. It will tell you the possibilities.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT5+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 01:28 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

only time will give us a better idea on what this is going to do. just looking at the cone from 11:00, it looks like the system would have to just about go due west from this point to get where the NHC had the sunday 8:00 am location plotted on the cone. i almost think that the lower half of the cone will need to expand or shift east at the next advisory. the ultimate destination still looks like the gulf coast somewhere, but i am having a tough time with it getting as far west as the forecast calls for before it begins that more northward movement. just a gut feeling but i think this will interact with much of cuba as opposed to just the western tip and may even come closer to south florida than what is currently forecast. this scenario would be much better in the long run because it might not get as strong once it gets into the gulf.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 01:32 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

also check out some of the rain totals thus far from Dr. Masters' wunderground. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=482&tstamp=200608

Ned

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 26 2006 01:39 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

I am new to the forum and also learning about hurricanes and all of the information and explanations you provide are awesome. Does someone have a link that shows all of the different computer models? What are the odds of this thing hitting the Tampa area?

Tampa? Lakeland weighed in yet??

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 01:42 PM

Attachment

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Take a look at the current water temp at the Gulf Coast. I looked at some bouy data from Katrina and the water temp is a little bit warmer in some spots near the coast. If there is no shear or dry air in the Gulf when Ernesto arrives we are in big trouble.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 01:50 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Hey, it's weekend and Ernesto is on the top of my list of things to watch so here I am.

I don't like the latest NHC forecast path which takes Ernesto directly to Louisiana. The local media has started to talk about it and advising people to prepare and watch Ernesto closely. I glad I've done all my preparation since the 2nd week of June so me & my family are ready for whatever comes our way and hopefully not because Louisiana can't take another big hit after Katrina last year so fingers crossed that Ernesto takes another path or just dies down.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 01:52 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

Quote:

I am new to the forum and also learning about hurricanes and all of the information and explanations you provide are awesome. Does someone have a link that shows all of the different computer models? What are the odds of this thing hitting the Tampa area?

Tampa? Lakeland weighed in yet??

I would say that it is too early to discount anyone on the Gulf Coast, but there does not appear to be the necessary compnents in place to cause a strike on Tampa. I suggest you continue to monitor the NHC and your local information sources.

There are some pretty smart folks on here that can give you info as well.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 01:54 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

i posted this back on Aug. 14th Links to water temps, etc. These links can show you where the loop current is and the water temps
post #70093 - Mon Aug 14 2006 11:07 PM

Quote:

may be me, but looks like the surface water temps in the GOM have jumped up alot in the last 10-15 days in the GOM... or the area of warm water temps has gotten bigger... Also looks like the Atlantic warmness is expanding to the east...Surface temperature (C) Also the NASA research project kicks off this week in the cape verde islands! Hurricane Heat potential (kcal/cm2)

And at last check the temps in the GOM are still very warm... enough to sustain a hurricane. Oh yeah to add to the post: Not only is the water warm in the Northwest carribean... its deep...meaning from the surface down its warm... think its in meters Depth of the 26c Isotherm (m) Gald to see recon is up!

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 01:54 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Models are jumping again. The GFDL takes Ernesto toward the Big Bend of FL, but also take it over Hispanola, which is questionable. The UKMET, CMC, and Nogaps have the storm south of the MS Delta but heading north or northeast prior to landfall. I have a feeling this will be going back and forth for awhile. Yuk.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 02:07 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

The current GFDL and GFS solutions just look unrealistic to me. That would almost indicate a trough developing to pull Ernesto north that soon, and I don't see that happening. Models are beginning to spread out again, which is bad news in that it makes the forecast less certain, but at least they are no longer all seemingly pointed at the extreme western panhandle.

About gas prices... they've dropped like a lead baloon the last week or so here, so they were bound to go back up anyway... but yes, if it gets into the central Gulf... $4/gallon will be here soon after.

pincty

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 26 2006 02:13 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

I'm not as educated in this field as most of you however I did note one item of interest. At 11:00 a.m. today (Ernesto was at 15.1, 71.2), the NHC estimated that at 11:00 p.m, Ernesto would be at 15.8, 73.0. At the 2 p.m. report, Ernesto was at 15.5, 71.8. I know it's only a 3 hour frame, however if this continues I feel that more of Cuba will be clipped than just the western tip. If this happens wouldn't that possibly break this storm up, especially if it has to go over the mountains of Cuba (further east).

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 02:16 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

when is the next recon due???

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 02:20 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

when is the next recon due???

Any time now, I think. The last vortex on NHC's site is at 0912z. The last observation was at 1642z, and that was observation 1 (it's now 1819z). So, we should get a vortex soon.

Vortex was just posted...still 997 pressure. 58kt FL winds outbound.

Steve H1

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 02:21 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Actually the latest GFDL is even a bit further east (12Z), but it runs Ernesto across Cuba again, so its weaker. That solution doens't make sense either, as it heads him NW seeming to want to cross eastern or central Cuba then runs the spine of Cuba back to the WNW, then NW into the SE GOM, then to the NE heading towards Cedar Key. This solution isn't correct but I don't like the adea of trying to smooth that data. The idea is that we may have a more northward component sooner. Need some more data and model runs to see if the east trend is continuing, or is just flat out wrong. Cheers!!

PS: The GFDL that is automatically linked is still the 6z. GOt the 12Z at PC tropics!

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 02:21 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

If this happens wouldn't that possibly break this storm up, especially if it has to go over the mountains of Cuba (further east).

You may be right but remember Dennis stayed over inland Cuba for hours and went from a cat four to a one but then went right back to a four again in just over a day. It may be a saving grace but don't count on it fully.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 02:23 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Those are the PSOD for Recon's flights.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/NOUS42.KNHC

charlottefl

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 02:55 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

It all depends on the structure of the hurricane how fast it would weaken over land/mountains. If anyone recalls Hurricane Georges in 1998 it's core spent a significant amount of time over mountainous terrain and still held onto hurricane status. Every storm is different and every storm unravels differently. As far as track I think the global models are coming into consensus that there will be a weakness in the ridge to the north of Ernesto and also a trough digging down through the mid section of the country, the question now becomes how much that weakness is and how strong the trough to the north is when the storm arrives in the GOM.

Hurricane Charley (Port Charlotte '04)

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 02:59 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

latest vortex doesn't show much of a change.... 997mb... max fl winds 51kts inbound and 58kts outbound
the 58kts was measured 679.65 Miles from center?
translated recon
URNT12 KNHC 261842
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/1754Z
B. 15 DEG 43 MIN N
71 DEG 07 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1415 M
D. 40 KT
E. 334 DEG 27 NM
F. 118 DEG 51 KT
G. 017 DEG 591 NM
H. 997 MB
I. 15 C/ 1523 M
J. 22 C/ 1511 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.2/3 NM
P. AF304 0405A ERNESTO
MAX FL WIND INBOUND 51 KT NE QUAD 1718Z.
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 58 KT NE QUAD AT 1757Z

***may just be me but something seems wrong about recon data from AF304**** Anyone else think so?

CoalCracker

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 03:08 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

If I'm reading this correctly, it looks like Ernesto is moving north of the forecasted track per the recon flight. If I'm not reading this correctly, someone please let me know what I'm misinterpreting.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 26 2006 03:11 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

You are reading it correctly. This is a very good site to compare vortex positions to predicted track: http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/vortex.html

dolfinatic

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 26 2006 03:14 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

The latest gfdl solution is very reminiscent of Elena in 1985.

Funny how it was in the same time period. We dont need something like that to happen again. That was a very long 3 days here on the west coast of Florida

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 03:16 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

ha... i knew that was wrong.... that WC130J has to have some jet engines on it! to go 679 miles in 39 mins!

URNT12 KNHC 261842 COR
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 26/1754Z
B. 15 DEG 43 MIN N
71 DEG 07 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1415 M
D. 40 KT
E. 334 DEG 27 NM
F. 118 DEG 51 KT
G. 017 DEG 51 NM CORRECTED
H. 997 MB
I. 15 C/ 1523 M
J. 22 C/ 1511 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.2/3 NM
P. AF304 0405A ERNESTO
MAX FL WIND INBOUND 51 KT NE QUAD 1718Z.
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 58 KT NE QUAD AT 1757Z

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 03:18 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

The latest gfdl solution is very reminiscent of Elena in 1985. Funny how it was in the same time period. We dont need something like that to happen again. That was a very long 3 days here on the west coast of Florida

Elena... Ivan... Dennis... Katrina.... Four words I never wanted to hear again. Elena did a loop-de-loop off the coast of Tampa. No one wants another storm to do that, ever again.

SebastianLou

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 26 2006 03:19 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Just my observations, it almost looks as though something is pulling the storm more nortward than predicted; I know these storms don't follow straight lines, and jog around,but we should look for trends correct? The storm position, thus far, has always been to the right most model predicted location. The NHC has been shifting the CONE slightly right since yesturday, at what point do we say, wait a second, we did not forsee this influence, and pull the entire cone to the right by maybe 100 or so miles if itappears justified. Of course this puts the Florida keys, central Cuba and possibly mainland Florida Pennisula more at risk, but that is beyond our control. It just looks that eastern Jamaica,and the heart of Cuba will be much more likely to be under the gun, along with Florida. The other BIG problem there would be with this possibility, is that bigger chunks of land would be affected much sooner, and we would not have the 5 0r 6 days to prepare that the media keeps reporting. Of course, the storm would not be a Category 4 or more if this played out. Does anyon, that knows more about storms know if the above is appearing to play out, or do I have the right idea with a substantial shift of the track to the right, feel free to explain, if possible???

sorry for the typos, not good with the key board.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 03:29 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

This morning many said on the infrared sat that it looked like Ern hit a wall...we saw the cloudtops have no westward motion. Then it seemed the center either jogged, reformed, or looped abit north. Now there seems to be nothing stopping the westward/nw motion, and it seems Ern is on the same heading as before, just a tad north...if it is a trend, we will know pretty fast...not an expert but my take...Ern should continue on the wnw track..shear seems to be lessening and the ull is booking to the west...after that..who knows..hopefully not an Elena...didn't it finally end up in Biloxi! that would make for a horrible labor day weekend.

PS

The models are all over the place.....everything in the Gulf is in play..can't wait for the next discussion!

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Aug 26 2006 03:36 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

My regards to cash earlier.. did not mean to affend you.. Ernesto seems to be moving closer and closer to Florida. Even the peninsula needs to moniter this. Looks like the shear has decreased as the center is covered with strong convection.. swirling around it and possibly a hurricane by tommorrow. My track takes it wnw then nw before hitting western Cuba. Then it could go north and make landfall right where our old buddy Alberto (wake up call) made landfall as a 50 mph. storm. Should be 20 times stronger then Alberto when or if it makes landfall. Something to watch and the east coast of Florida should moniter for hurricane conditions if it does this track.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/sloop-rb.html

HCW

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 03:36 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

The Department of Homeland Security and FEMA have called a 3:00 p.m cdt.briefing on tropical storm ERNESTO. WWL will broadcast the event LIVE on the Big 870, WWL 105.3 Fm, and WWL.com.

Direct link to listen to Fema meeting at 3pm is ... This saves you from having to make an account
http://webclust1.liquidcompass.cc/so...yer.php?id=WWL

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 03:39 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

The Department of Homeland Security and FEMA have called a 3:00 p.m.briefing on tropical storm ERNESTO. WWL will broadcast the event LIVE on the Big 870, WWL 105.3 Fm, and WWL.com.

It was after 3 when you posted this. *LOL*

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 03:41 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

the mainland of florida had not been in any shaded areas from this website as far as winds and damage potential. now there are shadings across the state http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 03:44 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

the mainland of florida had not been in any shaded areas from this website as far as winds and damage potential. now there are shadings across the state http://hurricane.methaz.org/tracking/

The mariner's 1-2-3 has had FL in it since yesterday.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/refresh/danger_atl_latestBW_sm2+gif/175237123_sm.gif

NewWatcher

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 03:44 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

i think that broadcast woud be 3 central time since they are in louisiana

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 26 2006 03:51 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Hey guys.. I'm back and hear theres something headed for the Gulf! I've been tracking Ernesto today and looks to me like a Alabama or Florida storm. Won't surprise me to curve and do a Charley but the trough has to be really strong as HF mentioned to Mike Gaynor earlier.

<< snip by moderator >>

Edit -- please don't wishcast in this forum or suggest 'the big one' is coming.

RedingtonBeachGuy

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 26 2006 03:54 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quite a few models are starting to come into better agreement, it seems. I have linked to the 2 pm model run from the NHC as displayed by LSU. Hank or a Met here can protect me.. er, um.. correct me if I am wrong.

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2006/ERNESTO/images/Storm-05-Spaghetti.gif

http://www.esl.lsu.edu/quicklinks/hurricanes/2006/ERNESTO/

RyanTheCaneMan

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 03:59 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

I am sure that you see an influx of unregistered users during tropical activity, include me in that count. My family and I will be heading to Orlando on Tuesday, August 29th for a conference. My concern is the possibilty of us using a hotel room that someone from an evacuation zone might need. My question is this...should I worry about it? sorry if this is off topic.

Thanks,

Kev from OH

worry about yourself first man... there are a ton of hotels in otown and many people that use them during evacuations have other ways to get of the storms way than a hotel!

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 04:13 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Looking at the visible, the center of circulation is still toward the western edge of the convection, but covered, and it looks like some convention is trying to fire ahead of the center to the southwest...the shear may be relaxing and we may begin a gradual strengthening.....

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 04:24 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

Looking at the visible, the center of circulation is still toward the western edge of the convection, but covered, and it looks like some convention is trying to fire ahead of the center to the southwest...the shear may be relaxing and we may begin a gradual strengthening.....

agree with you... here's a 24 image loop from today... .SPEED UP loops after it loads... SHEAR APPEARS to be relaxing to my eye..... also it looked like the southwest part of the center was exposed or almost exposed this morning.... New storms on the SW and West side are showing signs of no shear to there tops as they are pulled inward... This may be the night Ernesto gets going....

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 04:32 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

new runs from the colorado state site and we have a further east bias with a model actually bringing landfall south of tampa. http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png

tornado00

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 04:35 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Now where does that look familar, can someone say Charley? Hopefully not.

dolfinatic

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 26 2006 04:39 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Based on recent models, we should see a shift in forecast track east again. Of course i think it will shift back and forth the next couple days. The upper air dynamics have not come together yet enough for the models to hone in on.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 04:43 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

As of 2PM< Accuweather was still targeting Central LA.....thought that was interesting

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 04:43 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

Based on recent models, we should see a shift in forecast track east again. Of course i think it will shift back and forth the next couple days. The upper air dynamics have not come together yet enough for the models to hone in on.

Track will probably shift toward Apalachicola by tomorrow if the model trends continue, or maybe even further, toward the Big Bend. I'm still thinking the models will flip back toward the panhandle, though.

pcola: Accuweather didn't change their track at either 11am or 2pm it looks like. They must have the weekend crew working.

5pm advisory is out, center relocated, winds up to 60 but pressure still 997. Hurricane watch up for part of Cuba. Forecast track shifted to indicate landfall near the AL/FL state line with 105kt winds (120+ mph). Ivan revisited.

ElizabethH

(Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 04:46 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

5pm AST advisory....pressure same...

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...15.9 N...71.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

West FL Jess

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 04:49 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

what is causing the models to favor a more easterly track now?

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 04:55 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

It would appear that they are seeing a deeper trough that will pull Ernie more North and possible NNE. I am not seeing it, but I am a rank amateur.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 04:56 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

5 day forecast has Ernesto as a Cat 3 storm south of Pensacola.....seems like a safe spot to put the track with the models jumping around.....everyone along the Gulf Coast from Central Louisianna to Key West in the cone....I think this storm really has them thinking..hard

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 04:58 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/wv.jpg look at washington there is something coming from there. use the loop tho.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 04:58 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

pcola, deja vu.

It's like Ivan all over again looking at the new forecast,

Storm Cooper

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 26 2006 04:59 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

If you read the 5pm discussion it will explain it some. It can be seen on the Main Page...

Nateball

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 26 2006 05:09 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

I know its still way to soon to tell but what are the chances of this thing continuing to shift to the right putting maybe even tampa in the line of fire? Thanks for any comments.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Aug 26 2006 05:11 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

LOCAL METS DOWN HERE FOR MIAMI (WSVN) SOUNDED MORE CONCERN FOR THE SOUTH FLORIDA AREA... DUH THE TRACK HAS CONTINUED TO SWITCH MORE AND MORE TO THE EAST (KEYS COULD BE IN FOR A RIDE)

(Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 05:18 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Currently the threat to Tampa is there but is minimal. The outlier tracks to the east don't have a whole lot supporting them, and Beven did a good job explaining the GFS track for everyone in the 5p NHC discussion. Watch it, but don't be worried about it. We'll know more once they start flying surveillance missions and once the storm decides what landmasses of the Greater Antilles it wants to deal with...probably late Monday.

BillD

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 26 2006 05:26 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Typical hype by FOX. If you want accurate information, watch CBS4.

At this time there is only a remote chance that South Florida will get much more than some rain. Even the Keys are only on the far right fringe of the "cone". Of course things could change down the line. But for a TV station to be saying now that South Florida is going to be hit is irresponsible.

Bill

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Aug 26 2006 05:27 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Clark would you say the same goes for the Naples/Marco Island area. I know it is pretty early to tell, but what would be your opinion at this point?

Rich B

(British Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 05:43 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

hi guys,
dont think the new centre position is indicative of a change of direction. rather, based on the depth and coverage of the convection, i think it was more likely to be a reformation. of course, this plus the forecast track north. reckon Ernie might face a haul over quite a chunk of Cuba, probably as a Hurricane, possibly quite a significant one too!

Regards

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Aug 26 2006 05:50 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

THOUGHT THIS WAS INTERESTING READING

NAM MINIMIZES SHEAR TO THIS SYSTEM THRU THE PD...AFFORDING IT AN
ESSENTIALLY UNINTERRUPTED TRACK WWD INTO THE YUCATAN. GFS...ON
THE OTHER HAND...DECOUPLES SYSTEM EARLY...CURVING A WEAK SFC
REFLECTION SHARPLY TO THE RIGHT INTO THE FL STRAITS BY D3.

OFFICIAL TPC TRACK IS HALFWAY BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS...TRACKING
ERNESTO ACROSS THE WRN TIP OF CUBA AT F72. WV IMAGERY DOES SHOW
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR ALREADY OCCURRING WITH SYSTEM...SO A TRACK TO
THE RIGHT OF CURRENT THINKING IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

CISCO

(Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 05:58 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Still don't think it's likely that there will be that much of a right turn in the Gulf, but everyone in the peninsula should be on the watch for potential outer feeder bands if the current forecast track does verify middle of the week. But it's way too early to be sounding an all clear for any region of the US Gulf coast yet, even if some areas look pretty safe.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 05:59 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

i see nothing to decouple the system, especially with the shear relaxing....i can't see that happening.

Rich B

(British Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 06:11 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

the only way i see it decoupling is if it gets stuck over high terrain of Cuba for a significant time, without a letup in the shear! not likely in my opinion

amazon

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 06:12 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

THOUGHT THIS WAS INTERESTING READING

NAM MINIMIZES SHEAR TO THIS SYSTEM THRU THE PD...AFFORDING IT AN
ESSENTIALLY UNINTERRUPTED TRACK WWD INTO THE YUCATAN.

That path reminds me of Gilbert
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at198808.asp

with the Yucatan taking the punch out of that Katrina like storm..

edited to add with El Paso and areas in that desert area getting record rains this season the recent history of the upper level winds bringing heavy rains into that area shouldn't be discounted.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 06:12 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

The good news is that the pressure has been stable over the last several recon fixes, and is still 997. So, it's not strengthening rapidly as we might have feared it would - yet. Recon is still out there it looks like.

Accuweather still has not budged from their forecast of a Louisiana landfall.

(Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 06:20 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Boy, this is just bad. Now the models are targeting the one part of the United States that can use this the least, the area from central LA to Florida.

I have to admit, I am a little excited that the track and models have taken the bullseye off of the Louisiana coastline for now, but I surely don't wish this on anyone else, least of which my neighbors to the east, who have been through their fair share in the last two years.

The bottom line here is that Ernesto isn't going anywhere and he's held together and even strengthened some in a less than favorable environment. In the next 24 hours the shear should relax and Ernesto will be past 72W, the "hurricane graveyard". I think we're looking at a CAT3 hurricane in the east-central Gulf come Wednesday afternoon and everyone from Morgan City, LA eastward is under the gun. While I don't buy the hard easterly turn that some of the models are suggesting, I do believe that the area from New Orleans to Appalachicola is sadly in for another strike from a major hurricane.

Man, enough is enough!

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 06:22 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Was taking a peak at a Buoy info in the GOM and take a look at Buoy #42003 (Below) .
Look at the water temperature.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/Florida.shtml

HURRICANELONNY

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 26 2006 07:01 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Don't forget land interaction. Could keep him in check. Depends on the track and intensity and what part of cuba it hits.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 07:06 PM

Re: track

lates GFS ensemble has a track going through the upper keys. im starting to think back to one of the early GFDL runs when ernesto was a depression when it brought a cat 1-2 hurricane into south florida from the east. highly unlikely but i guess not totally out of the question. every new set of runs has at least one model bringing into the florida mainland further east. http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/gfs_track1.png

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 07:12 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Wow that is warm water. Bouys 42040 and 42039 to the north have 87 and 88 degree water. Ernesto will have plenty of warm water to soak in if he makes it up that way, not good.

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 26 2006 07:16 PM

Re: track

I think I would rather wait until they start those new data gathering trips I believe some one said by Monday?
The models can drive you nuts! Also I would like to see what that impulse is doing by tomorrow from the Northwest. So much could change over night like it did with chris and debbie for that matter.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Aug 26 2006 07:21 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

WOW! this is really getting to be wierd, a model now takes the hurricane Right through the HEART OF SOUTH FLORIDA. it seems like every new model is shifting to the east, my goodness it may even go over a decent amount of hispanola which should weaken it a bit. DOES ANYONE KNOW WHEN THE NEXT MODELS COME OUT (WHICH I THINK IS WITHIN THE NEXT HR) IF THEY WILL HAVE THE NEW CENTER POSITION????

West FL Jess

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 07:24 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

8pm i believe...i could be wrong though

(Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 07:25 PM

Re: track

That's just one of many GFS ensembles; the others are further west than the operational GFS track is.

What needs to be watched, though, is this reorganization phase Ernesto is going through. It will wobble around, possibly reform, and possibly jump in unpredictable ways over the course of the next few hours. Where it is after that will allow us to better say what landmasses in its direct future might be under the gun just a bit more than the others.

This reorganization is likely also going to lead to a bit better setup for intensification during the overnight hours, something that needs to be watched closely. But, before jumping over every last wobble in the track or every single computer model output, let's step back and relax for a bit. Any impact, even to Florida, is still at least 3 days away -- several days more than that for the northern Gulf. We have time to watch this one, and let's just see where everything trends or starts to focus in on over time rather than with every last wobble or model run.

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 07:27 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

8pm i believe...i could be wrong though

yes, the next model runs come out at 8pm ET.. but the question was if they would include the repositioned center location, not when they came out. I think the model input is frequently behind reality, which accounts for alot of the model craziness we see sometimes (like today).

The models that are putting Ernesto through the mainland are off the wall - don't see any way that's going to happen.

2pm ET models are now up at WU... the ones that were up an hour ago were the 8am runs.. and they shifted back to the west again. That's why I'm more than a bit concerned... whichever way to models are shifting, they average out to what the NHC forecast was at 5pm.

saluki

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 07:28 PM

Re: track

Not sure what the GFS is seeing that would pull Ernesto turn so drastically north into South Florida. I'm not a met, but it seems it would take something strong to the north to force such a path. Is anything like that on the horizon? Based on its current latitude and longitude, it would have to start moving almost due northwest immediately to make a direct hit here in the Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm beach area.

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 26 2006 07:30 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

Quote:

8pm i believe...i could be wrong though

yes, the next model runs come out at 8pm ET.. but the question was if they would include the repositioned center location, not when they came out. I think the model input is frequently behind reality, which accounts for alot of the model craziness we see sometimes (like today).

The models that are putting Ernesto through the mainland are off the wall - don't see any way that's going to happen.

Well there is a way actually though I agree with the GFS model.. just grazes the west coast of Florida. Though anyways.. if Ernesto moves fast enough to have the trough take control.. there could be a Charley situation.. Remember friend Hurricane Charleys dog leg turn was unpredictable

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 07:30 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

The center is fairly easy to make out as the sun sets, and it seems to be moving towards the next forecast point. The GFS and GFDL models are a bit out there..The GFS killed it earlier and the GFDL had it going towards Puert Rico. Remember that each model has a strength and a weakness. No single model is the one to watch. Unfortunately, the most accurate model, the FSU Superensamble, is not available on any of the normal sites. The NHC regards it highly, and that is why their tracking has been very good.. Last year they picked a 5 day for Dennis when it was in this same area, and hit it dead-on. Same with Katrina. Right now we have models from Cancin to Marathon. Thats why I look forward so much to the NHC track and their discussions. Is Bastardi off this weekend? I find it amazing that Accuweather is still pointing at central LA. Has anyone heard his take on this?

Manny

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 07:31 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

More important than the SST is the actual available energy in the water down to lower depths.

Take a look at this chart which shows the total potential energy in the water for a tropical cyclone.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2006237go.jpg

As a comparison, here is the same type of chart of the Gulf one year ago right before Katrina

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2005233go.jpg

While there is generaly a larger area of warmer water due to the infamous loop current eddies, they aren't as strong as they were last year. I'm fairly certain what energy is there is enough to fuel a very strong storm either way, but hopefully we at least don't seem to be able to support the same magnitude of storms as last year. I guess the difference between a catagory 4 and 5 is academic anyhow, so take it for what it is worth.

(Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 07:37 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Just as a general heads-up on model guidance...

The global and mesoscale models that actually solve equations -- like the GFS, UKMET, NOGAPS, ECMWF, MM5/WRF, and so on -- don't actually take prescribed storm locations from run to run. In the past, some models used a bogus vortex, where a storm is inserted into the model, but to my recollection the only one that does that now is the GFDL (not considered here). What this means is that these models use the data available to them to determine where it thinks the various systems should be as well as their structures. Recon data can go into the models but generally do not have a huge impact until the surveillance missions over large regions take place.

So, to answer the questions, the models won't have the new center locations in them; they'll determine them from the data available to them in the model assimilation window at the start of the model run.

The statistical and statistical/dynamical models such as the BAM series and others solve steering flow equations from prescribed initial locations. They are the least reliable models, but do include specified center fixes. The GFDL inserts a storm that is generally in balance with its environment, but these runs will only include data from up until the point that the model is run. All others -- for the most part, see above.

GuppieGrouper

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 26 2006 07:41 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

I was reading the 2000 archives and the exact same names were being used as this year. Ernesto was a player through the Labor Day weekend which was through the week of September 5. Ernesto was not expected to form but did. He was a fish spinner that year.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 26 2006 07:46 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Well, just to continue the comment, instead of the diurnal maxima occuring, I see the IR presentation falling appart. This could be a reorginization or a result of shear and/or land interaction, but only time will tell.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-jsl.html

--RC

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Aug 26 2006 07:47 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

I am no expert, but i was wondering does it look like the storm is now heading more to the west, or is that just the thunderstorms circulating around the center, which could be a real possiblity

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 07:48 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Deep convection is now over the COC, we could see this storm finally begin to take off later tonight.

nc_tropical_wx79

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 26 2006 07:49 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Someone (on another blog) made the comment the new CDO detaching from the old convection is that whats happening and what does it mean? is it good or bad for us?

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 07:50 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

Well, just to continue the comment, instead of the diurnal maxima occuring, I see the IR presentation falling appart. This could be a reorginization or a result of shear and/or land interaction, but only time will tell.
--RC

Too early for diurnal maxima, isn't it?

There does appear to be shear, but consider the LLC... it doesn't appear to be exposed anymore, at least not as much as it was earlier today. Time will tell, but I suspect we'll see a hurricane tomorrow, still.

Skeetobite now has new model runs up... ignoring the BAMM and A98E which take Ernesto WNW across the Gulf without ever turning poleward... the other models span from the mouth of the Mississippi to Pensacola now. In other words, we're right back where we were about 12 hours ago, model-wise. No changes should occur in the NHC forecast, I don't think.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 07:50 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

"take off tonight"--I dont think so.

I think we will probably have another, ohh 18 hrs or so before we see any really "impressive" intensification.

WW-911

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 08:06 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Latest GFDL model has moved west..in line with the NHC official track..I'm getting dizzy

THJTLW25

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 08:10 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

do you have the link to post.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 08:10 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Why didn't the NHC put up an 8pm graphic yet?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 08:13 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...16.5 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

(User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 08:20 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Important GFS note...The 18Z run no longer decouples the 950mb and 500 mb level...They remain stacked now and the path did not change between the 12Z to 18Z run...Per the 5pm NHC Discussion, the GFS was not receiving legitimacy because of the decoupling that was seen in the model run (12Z). Now that the GFS is maintaining a vertically stacked system, it will porbably receive a little more legitimacy. Also, the NHC did note that some eastward course corrections may need to be made due to the earlier reformation.

Essential point more than anything is this...if your in the cone...preparation consideration should be in mind. As of right now, the west coastof the Florida Penninsula is within the cone.

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 26 2006 08:21 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

another northward re-enjustment.. which means the track will deffinatly shift more to the right putting the penisula near the line.. still not at the line... I don't think they'll get that far until more models push east which is possible. It's re-organization time for Ernesto!

furkidsmom

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 08:32 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

Why didn't the NHC put up an 8pm graphic yet?

I still have the 5pm one when I go to the NHC page

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 08:35 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

Quote:

Why didn't the NHC put up an 8pm graphic yet?

I still have the 5pm one when I go to the NHC page

So it's not just me. They've been updating the graphics every 3 hours today, not just every 6.

HURRICANELONNY

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 26 2006 08:39 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

OPEN THE PAGE AND CLICK THE CLOCK WISE ARROW IN THE TOP LEFT TOOL BAR

johnnyg

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 08:45 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Here are a few observation that I have seen most of the day while I'm sitting here at work at the Weather Center:

After what appeared to be a combination of a NW wobble and the relocation of the center near the deepest convection, Ernesto has resumed a WNW track. Fortunately for Jamaica, they may miss the worst part of this storm. The bad new is, it appears that the Upper level low that has been causing shear over Ernesto apears to be relaxing a bit. The water vapor imagery shows the Low producing shear that was near Jamaica is accelerating away from the area. This should allow much more favorable conditions for strengthing. Due to the shift to the NE in position, Ernesto will be a bit closer to the larger mountainous areas of Haiti and Cuba. If Ernesto moves more NW than WNW, this should inhibit strengthening. The other option is for Ernesto to continue WNW and move over warm waters with lowering shear, allowing it to become at least a Category one hurricane by tomorrow. Another very important factor in intensity and movement is the apparent slowing of the forward speed. This will allow for more favorable conditions to develop around Ernesto, among other factors such as the evolution of steering currents downstream.
Model guidance has been shifting throughout the day, picking up a weakness in the ridge that will develop in the Gulf of Mexico in about 72 hours. Wherever Ernesto is located at that point, it should begin a curve to the NW, followed by the North. As of now it appears the main threat, other than Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba, would be any areas along the Gulf Coast, to the East of Biloxi. Once again, what movement that occurs in the next 36 hours will be crucial for the Gulf of Mexico forecast for this storm.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 08:56 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

I went ahead and filled up my 5 gallon gas can. I do not want to wait in line for gas later if this thing indeed heads this way. All this model flip flopping makes me dizzy.

Prepare for the worst--hope for the best.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 08:59 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

I know history has nothing to do with what happens< but the similarities between this storm and Dennis on track are unreal. Check it out.

http://www.gulfcoasthurricanecenter.com/dennis5am7505.gif

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 09:07 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

pcola, yes it looks almost dead on so far. That's crazy.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Aug 26 2006 09:15 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

I know history has nothing to do with what happens< but the similarities between this storm and Dennis on track are unreal. Check it out.

http://www.gulfcoasthurricanecenter.com/dennis5am7505.gif

Overlay of the 2 of them:
http://flhurricane.com/googlemap.php?2005s4-2006s5
(turn off the markers for a better view)

NEWS PHOTOG

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 09:20 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

I am not getting any 8PM graphic either... hmmmm.

BTW, this is my first post here, but I have been monitoring this blog for a couple of years. A great thing to have during those LONG waits between "official" updates.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 09:24 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

I thought that the NHC only put out new track and forecast charts every 6hrs; 5pm, 11pm, etc. That is when they have a complete advisory.

sara33

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 26 2006 09:28 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

I think you are correct. I think that the 2:00 & 8:00 are intermediate advisories? Look for the new one at 11:00..
Hope this helps some.
Christine

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 09:34 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

An earilier discussion related that the storm, if it develops into a 4-5, would likely lose some punch as it gets close to land. However, here is my take on that.....while it proves true in many cases, I only have to mention Katrina as an example. They rate hurricanes on the saffir simpson scale by wind speed...and one wonders if size and duration of intensity might also be considered when analyzing how dangerous they can be. Katrina stayed a 5 for quite a while, and when she hit land in Mississippi...the storm surge was greater than the wind speed would suggest.....suffice to say the hurricane may have decrease windspeed, but any analysis of the damage would suggest otherwise.

<< snip by Moderator >>

We appreciate what level you think this hurricane might reach but this isn't the appropriate forum for those thoughts unless backed up with facts or research. Consider posting your personal opinions on strength in the Forecast Lounge.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Aug 26 2006 09:39 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

looking at the map It looks as tho Ernesto is further NORTH than the forcast points from the NHC... ANY THOUGHTS ON THIS???????

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 09:41 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

A link to buoy information was posted earlier today. One of the buoys in the southern Gulf, along Ernesto's forecast track, was measuring a SST of near 90 degrees at the time. The SSTs in the "loop current" aren't quite as high as they were a year ago, I think someone said (less than 1 degree difference, though)... but overall, the water in the Gulf can best be described as an oven.

Conditions must be near perfect for a superstorm to develop... or so people thought before last year. Certainly if shear is low and land interactions are minimized, Ernesto COULD get there, if it's moving slow enough to spend time over the hot water. The fact that the NHC has sometimes stated in recent discussions on Ernesto that the intensity forecast may be too low can't be overlooked.

Bottom line, a Cat 5 cannot be predicted, but it's not beyond the realm of possibility in my opinion.

JMII

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 26 2006 09:47 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

All day I've watched as the track has shifted N and E with each update. This keeps bringing the storm closer to my area (S FL) however this a tough road to travel as atleast 3/4 of the storm will over Cuba (and it's mountains) for an extended period of time. The good news is this should keep Ernesto down to only a strong TS or weak Cat 1 'Cane due to land interaction. However the bad news is this also makes the true center of the storm hard to locate... and we have seen evidence of that since day one of TD#5. Thus when Ernest does pop back out into the SE GOM a few days from now it might be just as "jumpy" and difficult to get a fix on it's true postion. It's very possible that the center could reform in totally different place after the Cuba crossing and this will certainly make it's track an even harder to figure out.

I hate to bring up Charley because I think it's still to early to judge, but anywhere along the SW & W coast of FL has to be very mindful of this "jump" across Cuba. Given the cone of error the storm might be right at top of you without much notice where as our friends in Panhandle/upper Gulf Coast region will have another day or two of lead time. I don't want to scare anyone but I worried about weak-ish storm with an ill-defined or difficult to locate center coming over Cuba then quickly rebuilding/ramping up only a few miles off the SW FL coast. We all know a turn to the N/NE will occur it just a matter of when and where.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 09:48 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

I thought that the NHC only put out new track and forecast charts every 6hrs; 5pm, 11pm, etc. That is when they have a complete advisory.

They've been updating the graphics every three hours today. If you go look at the archives, you'll see they're all there. That's why it's weird that they didn't put up an 8pm one.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Aug 26 2006 09:53 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Wunderground does have an updated graphic up and it has the storm swinging back toward the west.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200605_5day.html

I have a feeling we'll be anxiously watching the wobbles and swings and all for the next few days. At least I will--I'm in the Florida Panhandle.

Since NHC didn't update their map at 8 pm this is probably an extrapolated map. Or, WU might have used the forecast points from the 8 pm Advisory.~danielw

(User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 09:54 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

If the system is north of track...it is only by a little bit (No sharp deviation). I'd like to direct you to this NASA Satellite site, for the newbies...click the animate radio button, then click on Ernesto. Link: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
The center is within the main ball to the west. There is definately no eye forming, but the circulation appreas to have established itself all the way to the top of the thunderstorm mass and the circulation is becomming easier to identify now. This may be an indication of strenghtening too. The two deep red blobs to the east are relative to banding features.

Frank P

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 09:54 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

For those interested here is a radar link from Gitmo... could be helpful in the tracking process as the storm tracks toward Cuba later on

https://detweb.weather.navy.mil/gtmo/

(User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 09:58 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

Wunderground does have an updated graphic up and it has the storm swinging back toward the west.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200605_5day.html

I have a feeling we'll be anxiously watching the wobbles and swings and all for the next few days. At least I will--I'm in the Florida Panhandle.

Please recall that the center was relocated to the east north east on the 5PM advisory...It'snot swinging back to the west, this is just a shift adjustment in the track that existed before the relocation. Note: the NHC did also identify that additional shifts in the track (Northward and eastward) may be required again on future advisories...This shift but Ernesto back in time on the timeline just a tad...It also made it hard for the hurricane center to determine true motion, so they just extrapolated the initial heading for the short term based on the previous motion heading before the relocation.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:01 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

maybe me.. but to me it appears someone is slowing down... i know we lose sats in a little while due to eclipse til after 0600z.... the over all CDO is expanding but not moving as much as i think it was... i would think the forward movement is slowing just a little... the storm appears to have faught the shear and won... take a look at the rainbow on the floater.... also the 0000z graphics are up... at Tropical Cyclone Model Guidance FRAME 1 and Intensity 1.... anyone else see a slow down possible?

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:01 PM

reforming after interacting with land

excellent post...as to intensity....back in 79 hurricane Frederic meandered through the islands...weakly hobbling in the GOM....and landed in Mobile as a strong 3. So no matter what happens...a. cyclone in the GOM in the late august early september is certainly one reason I am relating the possiblities of a strong cyclone. Not wishcasting...but the August heat is here...and 90 degrees is, well....freaky when you think about it.....

hurricanes need energy. another factor that maybe one of the experts or moderators could help us with is not only the sst's at the surface...but also at how much depth? There have been no cylones this year to "cool" things off in the GOM. Hurricanes are like natural tea pots..they blow off excess heat.

I mention this to suggest that previous "histories" of hurricane intensity may not be reliable barometers for considering current levels of intensity...

Ivan
Katrina
Rita
all within the last 2 years...

coincidence? I don't think so

ElizabethH

(Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:03 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Actually yeah I see the slowdown. Notcied the GFDL did slow it down but still has it's sight set on Mobile Bay area... It is MUCH slower than it's earlier runs, especially the 6z run.

I am fairly surprised it didn't have a few more easterly curves with it. I was really expecting to see more models take some sort of curve towards the big bend or even possibly Crystal River area.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:05 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

I would not be surprised if an eye formed befor ethe storm crosses Cuba..it has plenty of ocean to cross before Cuba and is expected to be a hurricane..if it crosses where the track is now, it will have no problem maintaining convection and its coc as it enters the gulf...based on intensification estimates, 18-24 hours out we should have no problem seeing the coc

Genesis

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:09 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Looking at the WV loop and continuing my thought process from last night, this is what I see at this point in time....

The high over the gulf is retrograding westward, and its influence appears to be gone within the next day or two. This, unfortunately, is precisely what opens up a northward turn and prevents a westward track of the storm.

You can clearly see the impulse coming in from the pacific coast, with a quite-well-defined boundary over the NM/AZ/TX border area. The key question is - does this flatten out or does it move eastward while continuing to dig?

The ULL that looked to be bugging out west last night now is REALLY bugging out west, so that looks to be completely off the table. Unfortunate, as that would have been a storm-shredder. No such luck - by morning at present motion it will be very close to the border of MX/Belize and headed "off the map".

It appears that Ernesto is going to miss Jamaica to the north. This is a very significant shift, because small differences in track now translate into really big (200nm or more!) changes over the next 4-5 days. Part of the model problem we have at present is that the storm is not all that well "stacked" yet, and this is the same sort of jumpiness we saw last year with Katrina - anyone remember how Katrina was pointed at Appalachicola early on? As it got organized vertically, the models got a much better handle on it, and suddenly they started to move westward.

In this case, as the models seem to get a better "grasp", they appear to be moving eastward. That, given what appears to be the evolving upper air pattern, is what I'd expect - the prognostication is for the ridge to be broken down and the storm to be picked up and turned northward and eventually NE. The key question - WHEN?

One hint may be due to the high that is moving off to the west over the Gulf. It looks like its influence over Ernesto has basically been lost, thus, the track continues to shift ever-so-slightly to the north. A bit further northward and we get two events out of this - 1) the storm goes over more mountainous terrain in Cuba, which could knock it down more severely, but 2) an impact on the west coast of Florida cannot be ruled out, and the warning time will be cut materially over an impact on the northern Gulf Coast.

In any event water temperatures in the gulf and available oceanic heat content are both high - perhaps not enough to support a "super storm" but definitely more than enough to be major trouble.

I believe, as I did yesterday, that by Sunday evening we will have a far better idea of where this thing is going. If it misses Jamaica to the north then we are likely looking at a track that is significantly east of the current NHC consensus, but still within the cone. What has changed from my perspective is that I now rate the probability of a very significant fracture in the ridge over the gulf far higher than I did 24 hours ago. 24 hours back I would have bet against it, just based on the pattern over the last couple of weeks. Now, it appears more and more likely that not only will the fracture occur but that it will not rebuild materially in the next week - the stationary frontal boundary that was over the SE US has basically dissolved, and we have both a surface front being driven through from the TX panhandle and a low behind it coming off the Pacific, both being driven the jet impulse.

I see nothing that would force the storm out of the cone at this point, but realize that the cone covers the entire Gulf Coast from roughly Key West all the way to Corpus!

(User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:11 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Utilizing the NASA site I posted a few moments ago...I identified the probable center and it's relative location in the CDO. Using the rainbow site with the tropical forecastpoints turned on, i was able to identify that the center is right where it sould be at 6 hours...but just a touch to the north of the forecast line. Ernesto is not slowing down at this point...but that is a possibility when it enters the weakness in the ridge.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:21 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf *DELETED*

Post deleted by stormchazer

NewWatcher

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:25 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

that forcast was issued around noon today, long before the last recon and before nhc last advisory

not saying it wont be accurate, but it is old

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:27 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

none of the models... not a single one that I've seen anyway... put Ernesto anywhere in the western Gulf. Most of them put it the central Gulf, from near where Katrina made landfall, to the Florida Panhandle.

Deep convection developing in the last half hour or so near the COC... we may be seeing a strong Ernesto soon.

(User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:28 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

The consesus of Mets from other sites seem set that this is a Western Gulf storm. Perhaps the models are agreeing. The front which will cause the weakness in the ridge is currently forecast by HPC to be fairly shallow. It still appears that points west of Mobile are in more danger at this point.

Here is the link:
HPC Animated Forecast

I am certainly not suggesting that the Panhandle turn its back either.

HPC forecasts are issued once a day in the early afternoon. They are very helpful in seeing potential, upcoming, large scale systems...As of right now, this package was beuilt during the morning hours and before continued models showed an biased more to the north and east. Likewise, the package was produced before the relocation. I keep bringing that up, but it was mentioned in the 5PM discussion so it is an important thing to remeber. I think the tool is useful from the standpoint that they are forecasting the weakness as well, but the package that will be issued tommorrow afternoon will be a lot more telling. As far as their forcast track on this graphinc, once again...it is a freeze frame loop from the weather data earlier in the day, so I think it is reasonable to expect a change in this tomorrow.
EDIT: New Watcher...sorry to duplicate your post...I guess you were posting while I was typing. You are correct though

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:29 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

aka: Beach

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html

Changes are defineatly going on with Ernesto's center.
It looks like it is taking a jog to the NW as well.
tomorrow's 5:00am update will probably come with a
track change as well. Everyone keeps harping on the
Gulf. I say watch out Key West and Naples.

Frank P

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:32 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

the little white dot in the middle on that wv loop, could that be the beginning of an eye formation?

Genesis

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:32 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Is it just me or does that IR loop look like it might clip the eastern edge of Hispanola?

If it does, then we are almost certainly talking about a significant deviation to the east, and the prospect of it getting ripped up pretty good goes up as well - good from an intensity point of view, at least in the short term.

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:33 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

As I mentioned previously, the challenge for anyone on this type of system is: where is the center of circulation, and which center are you going to forecast for? It sure is giving NHC and everyone here fits.

Everytime the vortex center gets repositioned somewhat abruptly, the models adjust - just like a domino effect. You could see multiple LLCs earlier today on the visible imagery. That's why Ernesto is having such a hard time intensifying in a persistent, albeit slightly weakening, environment of shear. My best guess is that the shear will continue to weaken, but after moving across western Cuba at a cat II, Ernesto will get torn up and not be able to strengthen to the full potential suggested by warm SSTs because of increasing horizontal upper level shear moving into the Gulf (as someone noted earlier). "God gave hurricanes a mind of their own, and no one can tell them how to behave."

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:33 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

the little white dot in the middle on that wv loop, could that be the beginnings of an eye formation?

I was just thinking that, but it's not near the current LLC, best I can tell, which is under the deep convection to the west of the white dot.

Steve H1

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:34 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Its hard right now to figure what the direction is: 300/310/320 ? You're right local almost impossible to figure this system right now. I believe its still underneath the expanding convection in the westernmost quadrant. But it's overall motion does seem to be NW....at least temporarily. Guess they'll tell us at 11

Frank P

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:35 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

yeah, but if you click in the forecast positions it's almost dead on with the projected center, but just a hair north... which is why I thought it might be trying to form an eye...

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:35 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Zoloft,

that was an error on the site. If you look now, it's back to where it was before.

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:37 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Great link.
Two things from that link. The valid time is 1733Z. So it's at least 6 hours old.
The Storm crosses New Orleans making it a Northern Gulf Of Mexico storm. Western Gulf of Mexico normally is the Gulf west of 90W.

Here's an excerpt from the HPC PMDEFD:
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
138 PM EDT SAT AUG 26 2006 (edited~danielw)

VALID 12Z TUE AUG 29 2006 - 12Z SAT SEP 02 2006

...ERNESTO...
PROGS FOLLOW OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST THRU DAY 5 THU APPROACHING THE E CENTRAL GULF COAST. DAYS 6 AND 7 FRI/SAT BRING A LANDFALLING SYSTEM INTO THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND SLOWLY NEWD INTO AL.

TRACK BASED ON RECURVATURE AROUND A POTENTIAL BREAK IN THE GLFMEX MID LEVEL RIDGE BUT WITH ONLY WEAK NW STEERING CURRENTS.
PAST HSITORY/CLIMATOLOGY SUGGESTS THE MID GULF COAST AND EVEN IF A MID LEVEL BREAK IN THE RIDGE OCCURS THE MOMENTUM OF A STRONG HURRICANE HAS TO BE OVERCOME TO SHIFT THE TRACK VERY MUCH.

WITH TWO CAMPS OF POTENTIAL TRACKS AND WITH ECMWF ENSEMBLE MID LEVEL MEANS NOT SHOWING A BREAK IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GLFMEX THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY UNCERTAIN.
SEE TPC DISCUSSIONS/ ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS.

...GULF COAST...
ASSUMING T.S. ERNESTO REACHES THE DAY 5 TPC POSITION AND STRENGTH.. A LANDFALL COULD OCCUR FRI OR SAT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST. POTENTIAL FOR HURRICANE CONDS FROM NE TX TO THE WRN PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA.

LT STEERING CURRENTS AT H500 AND H200 INDICATE THE SYSTEM TURNING EWD BUT SLOWLY AFTER LANDFALL WITH HVY RAIN POTENTIAL DAYS 6-8.

Bold emphasis added~danielw

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:41 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf *DELETED*

Post deleted by stormchazer

(Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:45 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

I haven't seen a whole lot of other meteorologists saying that...in fact, all of the meteorologists at the various sites I've perused are close to the NHC forecast, give or take a bit. The GFDN, or the GFDL run off of the NOGAPS baseline, does not have a great track record. Would you be willing to share links to some of these other forecasts, please? Just wondering more or less out of curiosity.

Also, as a general note to the board -- please do be careful in making bold statements about areas you feel are at risk, potential tracks for the storm, and the whatnot. Any such commentary needs to have some reasoning behind it or else posted in the Forecast Lounge. Most posts have been okay so far, but there are a few that have been on that edge. Thanks for you cooperation!

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:47 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

Hugh,

The other Mets are hanging their collective hats on the GFDN runs, which targets South Texas.

I haven't seen any of that. What site is this you're referring to? Even TWC is looking at an eastern Gulf.

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:50 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 72.7W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0300 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 29.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:57 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

At the moment, I'm working at the Chalmette Refinery, east of New Orleans 15 miles. The people here are still in shock, and still reeling from Katrina. Many mention that if another one comes, they will leave for good, and many feel New Orleans would NOT recover from another one. All conjecture, but suffice to say New Orleans would be a bad thing. Another thing to consider is the fact levees are NOT fixed there.

Mississippi gulf coast is still largely uninhabited.....

I'll post info this week on what I learn at the Mobile_Exxon plant. they likely will be tapping into the experts feelings on this too.

I had a gut feel last year that Katrina would hit New Orleans, and it did. This year, at the moment, I have no feeling for this one. When we did volunteer work along Mississippi, it was heartbreaking and numbing to see what it did. So much money and effort has been spent trying to get back to normal. Prices in Baton Rouge for real estate have sky rocketed....the New Orleans infrastructure is still largely incomplete...side streets everywhere without power....
a few more of these and insurance along the coast will not be possible. they will build like they do in the USVI.....THICK concrete walls, reinforced with rebar......

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:58 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 29.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

Right... on.. top... of... me!!!
Interesting, winds down to 55mph according to WU graphic... and forecast landfall intensity of 115 insteady of 120. The storm looks to be getting better organized on IR loop, though.. wonder why it's weakened.

(Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 10:59 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

It hasn't -- that's a bug on WUnderground's part. The 11p intensity is still 60mph. The 5 day intensity has come down to 100kt from 105kt, a small difference overall however.

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:00 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

It may fluxuate as it gets into better conditions. It's still dealing with some shear.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:02 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

50 knots wind is equivalent to 58 miles per hour wind so I don't see a change in strength...
Correct me if I'm wrong...

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:03 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

Quote:

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 29.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

Right... on.. top... of... me!!!
Interesting, winds down to 55mph according to WU graphic... and forecast landfall intensity of 115 insteady of 120. The storm looks to be getting better organized on IR loop, though.. wonder why it's weakened.

One word friend... re-organization.. Winds are still at 60 mph. according to the 11 p.m. advisory. Wunderground is having problems right now lol. Looks like to me the core of this storm is finally developing. This may be the start of "Hurricane Ernesto". Though to let you know.. winds are still at 60 mph.

ElizabethH

(Meteorologist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:03 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

there isn't a change.. central pressure remains at 997 mb and sustained winds at 60 mph

bigbelly

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:05 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

you are correct - 50 knots = 57.5389724 mph

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:07 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Finally got the advisory text to load... anxiously (with alot of anxiety!) awaiting the discussion. It's out now too...
Alludes to the fact that the highest winds measured were actually 45kts, but the aircraft may not have sampled the maximum winds. Intensity forecast assumes some interaction with Cuba, which isn't a given yet, but could be more than anticipated, too. Still, a "minimal" Cat 3 storm is now forecast to be just offshore of Navarre Beach in 120 hours.

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:08 PM

Lat Longs

Forecast Points:
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 26.5N 86.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 29.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

Grand Isle LA US 29.25 -89.96
Mouth Mississippi River LA US 29.12 -89.11
Mouth Pearl River LA US 30.15 -89.60
Pascagoula MS US 30.37 -88.55
MS/AL border -- US 30.40 -88.40
AL/FL border -- US 30.28 -87.50
Destin FL US 30.39 -86.50
Panama City FL US 30.12 -85.70
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/breakpoints_list.shtml?

Trekman

(Weather Watcher)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:09 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

Quote:

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 29.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

Right... on.. top... of... me!!!
Interesting, winds down to 55mph according to WU graphic... and forecast landfall intensity of 115 insteady of 120. The storm looks to be getting better organized on IR loop, though.. wonder why it's weakened.

Actually that is still out in the water. Somewhere south of Navarre. Had to look on Google Earth. We would be feeling wind at that position though. That much is certain.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:11 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Shear and lots of it. Ernesto is undergoing a whole lot of shear lately. The not so good thing is that it's still keeping together fairly well. Hopefully it tracks over the Cuban terrain and gets ripped to shreds. We'll have to keep watch>

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:12 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Still, a "minimal" Cat 3 storm is now forecast to be just offshore of Navarre Beach in 120 hours (quote)

could be...but they NEVER forecast higher than a 3, do they? I thought current knowledge and understanding of hurricanes is that no one really understands yet why some are 3's, and others make it to a 4 or 5, under similar conditions....

If it reaches just a three, I would be pleasantly suprised. A three is manageable....a 4 and 5 category...life threatening.

Cindi

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:14 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

So...here in Panama City, we should be making preliminary plans??? Already got the essentials, but need to pick up some stuff...maybe I'll go early tomorrow morning or tomorrow afternoon. If it really gets close, I don't want to be stuck in large lines...

I really hope this thing gets torn apart while crossing Cuba...

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:15 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

Actually that is still out in the water. Somewhere south of Navarre. Had to look on Google Earth. We would be feeling wind at that position though. That much is certain.

Well yes, that's technically true... and I'm actually east of 87.0, but that ust makes it that much worse, because it means I'd be in the NE core of the eyewall. I'm going to try to find a wind forecast projection that has been updated, but I think we'd be feeling 100+ MPH winds at that point.

Edit: Found the wind projection. Tropical storm force winds forecast to extend from the mouth of the Mississippi to around Suwannee it appears. Hurricane-force winds forecast to extend from Mobile Bay to Apalachicola. In other words, Ernesto is expected to grow, and grow, and grow...

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:18 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

I`ve heard alot of people talking about using these graphics on Google Earth, but I cant figure it out(!).

Can someone help?

WW-911

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:22 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

OK..levity time..here's my take..pcola's house is 30.24...87.06 Forget the models guys, it must be me..if this track holds that would make 4 eyewall storms in 11 years, not counting Ivan...i still however think that we are 24-36 hours away from a good grip...the amount of weakness in the ridge can mean a 200 mile difference...

(User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:23 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Not a bad time to remind everyone that a Recon has not been in there since 8PM...We do remeber what happened the last time they went in earlier this afternoon when they confirmed intensity, locarion and structure. This quote is a snippet from the disco, but I am sure you've had a chance to read it...Just attatching to backup what they are seeing in the Satellite versus the recon. They are trying their best with the tools available for sure.

Quote:

THE LAST AIRCRAFT FIX AT 00Z INDICATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS
UNCHANGED AT 997 MB. THE STRONGEST WINDS AT THE 850 MB FLIGHT
LEVEL WERE 56 KT...CORRESPONDING TO ABOUT 45 KT AT THE SURFACE.
SINCE THE PRESSURE WAS STEADY AND SINCE THE AIRCRAFT MIGHT NOT HAVE
MEASURED THE MAXIMUM WIND...AND CONSIDERING 00 UTC DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE A CONSENSUS 3.5 OR 55 KT...THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS
KEPT AT 50 KT. SOME VERY DEEP CONVECTION HAD BEEN PULSATING NEAR
AND TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...BUT RECENTLY IT HAS
EXPANDED AND BECOME MORE PERSISTENT NEAR THE CENTER. THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CONTINUES TO
RETREAT WESTWARD...AND THE RESTRICTION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW
TO THE WEST APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY LESSENING. ANOTHER AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE ERNESTO IN A
FEW HOURS.

hawg92

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:25 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

If it reaches just a three, I would be pleasantly suprised. A three is manageable....a 4 and 5 category...life threatening.

If you recall, Katrina was a strong 3 when it made second landfall. It was not exactly manageable...

I was in Baton Rouge when she hit and while there was not a significant amount of damage that far west, we were on the "clean" side of the storm and it was bad enough.

Jack

Hugh

(Senior Storm Chaser)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:27 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

OK..levity time..here's my take..pcola's house is 30.24...87.06 Forget the models guys, it must be me..if this track holds that would make 4 eyewall storms in 11 years, not counting Ivan...i still however think that we are 24-36 hours away from a good grip...the amount of weakness in the ridge can mean a 200 mile difference...

You can take blame, pcola... I was thinking it was me, but I'm a little under 50 miles east of you. Okay, it's too early to panic. It's too early to panic. It's TOO EARLY to panic!

One bright side of a very stormy picture for us, though... the greater New Orleans area, and Biloxi, which were devastated by Katrina, would be spared the brunt of Ernesto, if the current forecast holds. Big IF, of course.

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:28 PM

Recon

Recon is out of the chocks, but not airborne yet.

Remember the disclaimer in the NHC Forecast Advisories:
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
NOTE... ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM ON DAY 4 AND
300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

That's +/- 3.4 degrees on Day 4 and +/- 4.6 degrees on Day 5.
Covers a Lot of Coastline!

Tropics Guy

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:30 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Here are the latest model plots graph, looks to be trending east, which makes a Fla Panhandle hit more likely.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

TG

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:33 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

Quote:

If it reaches just a three, I would be pleasantly suprised. A three is manageable....a 4 and 5 category...life threatening.

If you recall, Katrina was a strong 3 when it made second landfall. It was not exactly manageable...

I was in Baton Rouge when she hit and while there was not a significant amount of damage that far west, we were on the "clean" side of the storm and it was bad enough.

Jack

Katrina made landfall as a category 4 with winds of 140 mph.
It then made a second landfall as a category 3 with winds of 125.
people say it was a 3 when it made landfall but it was actually a category 4.

(User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:34 PM

Re: Recon

DanielW, Thank you forthe recon info...You are correct in your errors point as well. I would like to quicky add that folks...you do not need to break out your tracking chart to figure out where those errors begin and end...The cone of uncertainty is exactly at the mileages that Daniel Indicated...That goes for every cone in every storm. Depending on the track, speed, curvature and direction...the cone may look wider or narrower...but that is a fact of the error cone that never changes.

(Moderator)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:39 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

Here are the latest model plots graph, looks to be trending east, which makes a Fla Panhandle hit more likely.
TG

Only the BAM series and the NHC Models have updated. The rest are from 18Z. Notice the BAM series has now changed to a northward turn. Earlier the were trending West to NNW.

There is still an awful wide margin in the 5 Day points.
From the Mouth of the MS River to the Clearwater, FL area. Roughly 7 degrees of longitude. (real rough)

RECON is airborne.

edit:7 DROPSONDES AND 6 FLIGHT LEVEL OBS WERE RECEIVED FOR THE 00Z GFS...

hawg92

(Verified CFHC User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:39 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

If you recall, Katrina was a strong 3 when it made second landfall. It was not exactly manageable...

I was in Baton Rouge when she hit and while there was not a significant amount of damage that far west, we were on the "clean" side of the storm and it was bad enough.

Jack

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Katrina made landfall as a category 4 with winds of 140 mph.
It then made a second landfall as a category 3 with winds of 125.
people say it was a 3 when it made landfall but it was actually a category 4.

I think that's what I said

Jack

(Storm Tracker)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:44 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Good thinking. If you don't use your supplies for this storm, there will always be others. A good rule of thumb is to have your hurricane supplies readied for the start of each hurricane season. Then you will only need to stock up certain items that are perishable, and of course fuel and money.

Good luck !! Seems a little premature to pinpoint a landfall right now, so I will sit back and be entertained while the models flip back and forth, the NHC scratch their heads, the prognosticators prognosticate.

Genesis

(Weather Guru)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:45 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

The trend has been eastward all along, as the ridge breakdown was originally discounted but now is seen as not only probable but inevitable by the globals. Its just a matter of when and "how hard."

The UKMET run is about 6 hours behind the others; of the other "global" models only the CONU and GFDL have a recent run with a landfall point west of Panama City. Curiously enough the FSU MM5 has some REALLY bizarre behavior modelled, with the storm coming off the coast of Cuba and then making a nearly 200nm jump almost due west, before resuming its poleward movement (that one's not on the spaghetti plot) The trend is solidly towards the east - but that may not mean much as right now I suspect there are initialization problems with all or most of the models due to the rather poor "stacking" of the system. This should improve and I wouldn't be surprised to see the model tracks tighten up significantly during the afternoon runs tomorrow.

It looks like the NHC is taking a "split the difference" approach right now, while leaving a VERY wide cone of uncertainlty. Probably smart, all things considered, especially given the poor initialization issue. Including the Keys and west coast of FL is probably smart even if relatively low probability, although I certainly do see a setup that could put this into the Big Bend area.

I'd be concerned about being prepared were I on the west coast or in the Keys simply becuase if it goes that direction you will have significantly less time - but this is definitely the time to figure out what you're going to do if the cone tightens down and you're in the revised area either tomorrow night or Monday (if you're anywhere south of the Big Bend), or certainly by Monday/Tuesday if you're on the northern gulf coast.

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:45 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

NEW ORLEANS - Despite aggressive efforts to repair the New Orleans levee system following the destruction of Hurricane Katrina, it isn't clear yet whether it could withstand a hurricane with heavy storm surge this year, the head of the Army Corps of Engineers conceded Saturday (quote from news today)

New Orleans, Mobile, and Pensacola are the largest cities at risk. ...

Let's not overlook the possibility of Tampa Bay, either....

It's hard for me to imagine that Katrina was a category 3 when it hit....I saw the destruction, and everyone knows the storm surge was cat 4-5 proportions. factor in the size of the storm too....Camille and Andrew were smaller in relative size, including eyewall.

the overall size of this storm? anyone have any early ideas on how large the outlfow and size of Ernesto?

Myles

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:46 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Allan, Katrina was a Cat 3 at 1st landfall. Quoting NHC report -

"After reaching Category 5 intensity over the central Gulf of Mexico, Katrina weakened to Category 3 before making landfall on the northern Gulf coast." The 1st paragraph.

More detailed - "The hurricane then made landfall, at the upper end of Category 3 intensity with estimated maximum sustained winds of 110 kt, near Buras, Louisiana at 1110 UTC 29 August. Katrina continued northward and made its final landfall near the mouth of the Pearl River at the Louisiana/Mississippi border, still as a Category 3 hurricane with an estimated intensity of 105 kt"

Also, to keep this post on topic... It looks like the shear from the upper low to the W of Ernesto is starting to slacken a bit. If it keeps moving west like this the upper end intensity forecast could hold. Hopefully we do have a little more northward movement then predicted from Ernesto...right over the entire length of Cuba! (Not to wish death and destruction upon them. I hope it doesnt make it hurricane strength by then, but then there will still be flooding...)

WeatherNut

(Weather Master)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:55 PM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Here is a link to the shear analysis updated every 3 hours:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

It is showing the shear relaxing

(Registered User)

Sat Aug 26 2006 11:56 PM

hurricane food

Major hurricanes will be the norm, I think.....

NOAA report on July 14, 2006: "The average temperature for the continental United States from January through June 2006 was the warmest first half of any year since records began in 1895, according to scientists at the NOAA National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. Last month was the second warmest June on record and nationally averaged precipitation was below average. The continuation of below normal precipitation in certain regions and much warmer-than-average temperatures expanded moderate-to-extreme drought conditions in the contiguous U.S. However, much of the Northeast experienced severe flooding and record rainfall during the last week of June. The global surface temperature was second warmest on record for June.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 27 2006 12:06 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

I'm really interested to see the model runs in the morning. I really believe, and have said so for 2 days now, that there may be more re-curvature than what is being indicated currently, and have said for quite a while that a recurvature of this storm is indicated by longer range modeling from NCEP. If the scenario is that the ridge recedes that greatly and the westerlies start steering it earlier, then there is a whole different scenario pushing it to Florida's west coast in some kind of arc, now unknown. But I was really interested by the scenario that overlayed Dennis and this storm. That was actually kind of a curious thing that may mirror reality. I am of the belief , though, that once in the GOM, as a big system, it starts responding to westerly steering currents more than model tracks currently indicate, turning it earlier rather than later and it trying to steer itself around the high pressure ridge that may still remain in the forecast period. BUT, that's just IMO, not necessarily right. You can see what I have been alluding to at the NCEP experimental products, which are not too experimental anymore, concerning the MSLP Means models. The North American plots at 12, 72, 96 and 120 hours bear that out. Here is a link to those:
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/ens_jsw/ens_jsw.html#us
Run the ensemble in the North American plots and see what happens in the 120th hour of the Re-forecast. It hasn't changed substantially in the last 2 days. That is the re-curvature I'm sure the models are looking at.
Thanks....

hawg92

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Aug 27 2006 12:17 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

I really believe, and have said so for 2 days now, that there may be more re-curvature than what is being indicated currently, and have said for quite a while that a recurvature of this storm is indicated by longer range modeling from NCEP. If the scenario is that the ridge recedes that greatly and the westerlies start steering it earlier, then there is a whole different scenario pushing it to Florida's west coast in some kind of arc, now unknown.

You could be right, but from my experience, once a storm gets above Cat 3 it can make its own way. A lot is going to depend on how much it strengthens in the gulf and forecasts of strength are still not very accurate in many cases.

Jack

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 27 2006 12:17 AM

Re: hurricane food

Quote:

Major hurricanes will be the norm, I think.....

NOAA report on July 14, 2006: "The average temperature for the continental United States from January through June 2006 was the warmest first half of any year since records began in 1895 ... ... The global surface temperature was second warmest on record for June.

I appreciate the comment, but --- surface temperature will always go up when we measure it primarily in urban areas. Our understanding of true global surface temperature is very limited and is constantly evolving, just like the instrumentation used to measure it. If the above report had some correlation to the number and intensity of tropical cyclones, we should be having a busier season than last year. Just my two cents.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 27 2006 12:22 AM

Re: hurricane food

Warm SST are not the only thing that goes into making a tropical systme.

This season has been filled with dry air, and wind shear.

WW-911

Colleen A.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 27 2006 12:24 AM

Ernesto

Ernesto appears to be hitting some shear right now which is prohibiting any strengthining for the time being. However, that area that he is hitting is forecasted to move westward allowing him to strengthen after leaving Hispaniola -- which is also inhibiting any immediate strengthining. What I see here is a little troublesome: the trend has been moving "the cone" to the east for the last 2 days. I just heard on BayNews9 that now some of the models are beginning to move a little further to the left. I'm not sure which ones they are, however, because the met did not mention them. The models I have seen aren't too comforting for the North Central Gulf Coast and further east; however, Ernesto still has time to deviate after interacting with land, etc., so NO ONE along the Gulf Coast should let their guard down.

This is the most frustrating part of watching a storm in the GOM. You know it's going to hit SOMEWHERE but until it actually gets into the Gulf, the forecast is far from concrete.

A quick reminder to everyone: please do not "wishcast" a storm to a certain area based on your gut feelings. The media is hyperventilating over Ernesto and forecasting it to be a major storm while reminding everyone how Katrina devastated New Orleans "this time last year". I think they are doing nothing but adding to the frenzy -- and everyone needs to remember these few things:

Stay calm and informed.
Make sure you have your hurricane kit and plans in place.
Follow the news and local weather reports --- the NHC has done a fabulous job keeping the public up to date.
Do not react to every jump or bobble with Ernesto...storms are notorious for doing this and it is normal. If it becomes a trend, the NHC will see it and their forecast will reflect it.
DO NOT focus on the black line in the middle of the "cone". That is ONLY there because that is the latest consensus of the model runs...keep in mind that there is a cone for a reason === to reflect that it could go as far left as LA or as far right as Tampa Bay.
Remember that although the storm is the most intense near the center, that the feeder bands can also cause a lot of weather problems --- flooding, tornadoes, etc, and the bigger the storm, the more area it will cover.

In other words, if you are prepared for hurricane season, then all you have to do is watch and wait. You will know if and when you have to leave and if you pay attention, it shouldn't be a surprise.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 27 2006 12:24 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

You could be right, but from my experience, once a storm gets above Cat 3 it can make its own way. A lot is going to depend on how much it strengthens in the gulf and forecasts of strength are still not very accurate in many cases.
Quote:

What do you mean by make it's way ? Takes a mighty strong storm to do that, and only few have done that.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 27 2006 12:34 AM

Re: Ernesto

Hmm BayNews must be looking at the GFDN. If anything they seem to be trending north vs NNW, at least the models that have run so far. Only a few of the models are 00Z at this point, most are from 18Z. I believe they added data for the 00Z so hopefully we can start to get a better feel for where this storm "may" go. If I were in the Keys right now I would definitely be taking note of whats happening.

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 27 2006 12:37 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

GFS might not be too far out...thing is..1 it has backing from the NOGAPS..it takes it to Keywest and landfall near Ft Myers up to Tampa in 84hrs....very simular to the GFS.......also the key is how much impact the landmass will have.....I expect a hurricane sometime Sunday....then after downgrading on Monday.. a hurricane again by Tuesday morning after it leaves Cuba....I think still he might go slightly farther west then the GFS and very simular to the Nogaps current run... ...A midlevel trough is forcasted to be in the middle gulf blocking anything more moving past 85W by Weds.

scottsvb

dhsfireman

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Aug 27 2006 12:38 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Any idea why accuweather has N.O. pasted as a bullseye.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurrica...;imagetype=move

And the tropical wave off the coast of africa with a lower low they are not even saying anything about it. Is this not a bad thing when they have a lower low or is it worse to have an upper low.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane/index.asp

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 27 2006 12:42 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Using this link. Bullseye looks to be more of Over Mobile Bay.
http://sirocco.accuweather.com/adc_hurr_images/2006/ae/UHAE_2_640X480.GIF

dhsfireman

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Aug 27 2006 12:44 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Your right left eye was looking right and right eye was looking left. lol thanks for clearing that up.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 27 2006 12:45 AM

RECON scrubbed

I saw a data glitch just prior to the last transmission. May be having COMM problems again.
What happened to the HF Radio backup??

Recon is returning to St Croix.
URNT11 KNHC 270051
97779 00500 10172 67500 54600 17031 55/// /4592
RMK AF304 0405A ERNESTO OB 19
LAST REPORT.

EugeneF

(Registered User)

Sun Aug 27 2006 12:46 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Because InAccuweather = Satan

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 27 2006 12:49 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Agreed. 00Z should be rolling in as we speak, I would think. Should be interesting.. BTW was speaking of the GFDN model before, its off to Texas somewhere.

Colleen A.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 27 2006 12:53 AM

Re: Ernesto

I don't know about BN9 right now...one forecast minute they are talking about the models moving more to the west and the next forecast minute they are talking about how we are "still under the gun". I know they are trying to keep us informed but I just wish they would be consistent.

(Meteorologist)

Sun Aug 27 2006 12:54 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

00Z A98E seems to be finally coming more into line.

18Z had 120HR point of 24.3 89.9
00Z has 120HR point of 27.6 89.0

BAMS, BAMD still sticking to the much more west scenario.

Still waiting for the 00Z run of the GFDL.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 27 2006 01:05 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 27 2006 01:07 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Interesting 00Z GFS seems to have gone more EAST. Looks almost like a SE Florida Land Fall going north up through state exiting near JAX. Crazy..

dhsfireman

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Aug 27 2006 01:09 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Thanks for the info on the first part of my post but what about the second part.

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 27 2006 01:11 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 27 2006 01:17 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

Thanks for the info on the first part of my post but what about the second part.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ERN ATLC IS BEGINNING TO MOVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ALONG 25W/26W S OF 22N...MOVING W 15 TO 20 KT.
THIS WAVE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A 1008MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 17N26W.

THE LOW HAS PREVIOUSLY BEEN ANALYZED ALONE... BUT THE WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED DUE TO THE BROAD CYCLONIC CURVATURE SEEN AND CLEAR WAVELIKE SIGNATURE IN GOES LOW LEVEL HIGH DENSITY WINDS S TO 5N.
THE WAVE REMAINS NEARLY VOID OF DEEP CONVECTION OUTSIDE OF THE ITCZ REGION...EXCEPT FOR A VERY SMALL CELL OF MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 18N29W.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/262353.shtml?

From the National Hurricane Center Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 27 2006 01:28 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

heynow

(Verified CFHC User)

Sun Aug 27 2006 01:32 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

teal61

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 27 2006 01:37 AM

Re: RECON scrubbed

Nah, they are out there..

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

851
SXXX50 KNHC 270523
AF303 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 15 KNHC
0513. 1608N 07237W 01462 0021 207 035 186 182 036 01483 0000000000
0514 1610N 07238W 01466 0018 207 036 188 178 037 01484 0000000000
0514. 1611N 07240W 01462 0018 210 039 194 162 039 01479 0000000000
0515 1612N 07241W 01465 0017 211 039 198 156 039 01482 0000000000
0515. 1613N 07242W 01464 0016 215 038 192 164 038 01479 0000000000
0516 1614N 07243W 01464 0013 215 036 192 168 037 01477 0000000000
0516. 1616N 07245W 01466 0011 215 036 188 170 038 01477 0000000000
0517 1617N 07246W 01460 0012 226 028 180 180 033 01472 0000000000
0517. 1618N 07247W 01462 0011 243 023 174 174 025 01505 0000000000
0518 1619N 07248W 01473 0007 247 019 174 174 021 01514 0000000000
0518. 1621N 07248W 01458 0003 238 016 174 174 018 01495 0000000000
0519 1622N 07249W 01465 0000 227 020 176 176 021 01501 0000000000
0519. 1624N 07250W 01463 5002 232 025 186 182 026 01496 0000000000
0520 1625N 07250W 01466 5002 236 020 192 178 025 01498 0000000000
0520. 1627N 07251W 01447 5009 268 017 206 170 019 01473 0000000000
0521 1629N 07251W 01477 5012 317 017 206 170 019 01500 0000000000
0521. 1630N 07251W 01523 5013 314 022 220 158 026 01545 0000000000
0522 1632N 07250W 01454 5028 311 033 244 148 040 01460 0000000000
0522. 1633N 07249W 01465 5042 281 032 258 140 034 01458 0000000000
0523 1634N 07248W 01456 5052 314 027 238 156 029 01439 0000000000

303 is out there now 304 was earlier today. Last transmission.. should have a vortex soon.

(Weather Master)

Sun Aug 27 2006 01:37 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

All the 0z models have shifted much further east...with Most hitting florida from the Keys .....Marco Island (GFS) Keys ..Tampa...(Nogaps) and (UkMet) now inline with them.....Canadian is also much further east then its 12z run running just west of Clearwater and landfall near Cedar Key......GFDL has moved east with Florida landfall. All Major models are clusterd within 150miles in 4 days out near the west coast of Florida or inland........next runs will see if they adjust more east even...I doubt they would go back west cause like I said before over the last 2 days..there will be a trough blocking anything from bringing Eresto past 85 west......

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 27 2006 02:00 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Yes the modeling is gaining some consensus with the major models.GFDL,UKMET, NOGAPS and GFS. I still do not put much weight in the AVN, BAM, etc.Too short range to be useful for all but that purpose, but all the majors are showing the trend for re-curvature I have been talking about at some length. I also do not see this going past 85W and going to the FL west coast, which, incidentally I live on. Just North of Tampa is our worst case scenario.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 27 2006 02:01 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...16.7 N...72.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB.

Getting better organized! Could be a hurricane later today......

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 27 2006 02:07 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Ernesto has really slowed down...... Moving at 9mh at West-northwest and pressure is dropping also... A strengthening storm no doubt.

Are there really a Recon flight out there and if so, do we have a vortex yet?

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 27 2006 02:16 AM

Re: Ernesto *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

Hurricane Fredrick 1979

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 27 2006 02:28 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Quote:

Ernesto has really slowed down...... Moving at 9mh at West-northwest and pressure is dropping also... A strengthening storm no doubt.

Are there really a Recon flight out there and if so, do we have a vortex yet?

Here is the VDM:

000
URNT12 KNHC 270559 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/05:23:50Z
B. 16 deg 37 min N
072 deg 45 min W
C. 850 mb 1391 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 323 deg 040 kt
G. 224 deg 008 nm
H. EXTRAP 996 mb
I. 22 C/ 1440 m
J. 26 C/ 1461 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF303 0505A ERNESTO OB 05 CCA
MAX FL WIND 40 KT SE QUAD 05:21:30 Z
PRESSURE 994MB 210/03NM FROM FIX LOCATION
CORRECTED FOR EXTRAPOLATED PRESSURE
;

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 27 2006 02:39 AM

Re: Ernesto *Killed -- Sent to Graveyard*

This post was sent to the Hurricane Graveyard

(Meteorologist)

Sun Aug 27 2006 02:51 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

Normally this would be a sigh of relief for me here after the devastation of Katrina, but you know it's not going where the models have it that far out, and I rather be under the gun now than on Tuesday.

I also feel horrible for you guys in Florida. No one in the central/eastern Gulf needs this!

Sarg

(Registered User)

Sun Aug 27 2006 02:51 AM

Re: Ernesto

From looking at the earlier model runs not one had it coming anywhere close to Tampa. Now a bunch have it coming in and around Tampa what would cause them all to change so drastically?

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 27 2006 03:04 AM

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf

The system is clearly getting organized. There is a lot of deep wrap-around convection and the Dvorak imagery and the IR shows the beginnings of a central core that will eventually become an eye. I think this will be a hurricane by later Sunday night. It's beginning to gather it's assets up. I see zero shear on it and the system is becoming well developed.

RedingtonBeachGuy

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 27 2006 03:06 AM

Re: Ernesto

Sarg -- I suspect that the slower this storm takes to get into the Gulf, the more apt it is to make the bend mid-Florida instead of in North Florida. At least, that is what I remember of Clark's post the other day.

But there is no sense to be worrying quite yet. It is time to start making your preparations for a major tropical storm as you always would but understand we are about a week out yet and there could be changes - either way.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 27 2006 03:08 AM

Re: Ernesto

Quote:

From looking at the earlier model runs not one had it coming anywhere close to Tampa. Now a bunch have it coming in and around Tampa what would cause them all to change so drastically?

Response to a lessening of a ridge of high pressure now in the GOM that will recede over the next 120 hours out to the Atlantic and a trof of low pressure that will move through during the period. That's what it's all about now. Low pressure tries to steer around higher pressure

Sarg

(Registered User)

Sun Aug 27 2006 03:10 AM

Re: Ernesto

Thanks for answering my question. I am new to this and trying to learn as much as possible. We have all of our supplies ready and waiting but hopefully not needed!!

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 27 2006 03:19 AM

Re: Ernesto

Ernesto appears to be gaining. As posted above. Really nice 'cirrus fingers' extending out from the edges of the storm on the newest satellite shots.

I have just Graveyarded close to a dozen post that were off topic.
Please remain on topic. Or risk having your post(s) sent to the Graveyard.
I tried to let one or two slip by earlier, but they continued. If you would like to exchange off topics views please use the PM function. Thanks.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 27 2006 03:32 AM

Re: Ernesto

Understood. I see you are in Riverview, I'm just across Hillsborough Bay in South Tampa. I wouldn't worry,but we are always in readiness and have been discussing the possible scenarios. A lot could and will change in the next 120 hours. If it crosses central Cuba, it loses intensity somewhat, but still has a pretty good chance for some re-intensification, but not likely what it was if it it, say, crossed at the Ilse of Youth and entered the Central Gulf and then moved in from our due west.This could take on some characteristics of Charley, moving up the coast and diving at the warmest water it can find like it did at Port Charlotte. There's a lot of possible outcomes. So stay aware and prepare. I will bve gassing up everything from the pickup to the motorhome tomorrow and the genset and spare gas for it, too. My windowboards are always ready to go up and I have a list at my website of all the things I prepare to do. You might want to check out the prep list. It is my prep list and not official, but a pretty good one we have used before:
www.randyroberson.com/preppop.html

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 27 2006 03:35 AM

Re: Ernesto

Satellite are back up.
CIMSS Dvorak numbers at 0645Z are the highest yet.
Raw Dvorak of 4.2
Current Intensity of 3.8

CIMSS is rating Ernesto at a satellite estimate of 990.0mb, and estimated wind speed of 61.0kts. (Not sure if that's a surface speed or not.)

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt2.html

(Meteorologist)

Sun Aug 27 2006 03:39 AM

Re: Ernesto

Indeed, SSD has upped Ernesto to T4.0.

27/0615 UTC 17.1N 73.6W T4.0/4.0 ERNESTO -- Atlantic Ocean

Only getting better organized by the minute.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 27 2006 03:39 AM

Oops

I hope I'm reading this wrong. I do see a flag on the dew point indicator, but no where else.

wind from096degrees at 076knots. Temp13.6C Dew Point13.6 peak wind 078knots

edit: It appears that the error flag that I'm seeing is because the Temperature and Dew Point are the same. So the computer is throwing a flag.
I hope there isn't a substantial penalty ahead!

Daniel294

(Registered User)

Sun Aug 27 2006 03:42 AM

Re: Oops

Uh... what's your source for that? (feel free to delete this when answered)

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 27 2006 03:43 AM

Re: Ernesto

Quote:

Satellite are back up.
CIMSS Dvorak numbers at 0645Z are the highest yet.
Raw Dvorak of 4.2
Current Intensity of 3.8

CIMSS is rating Ernesto at a satellite estimate of 990.0mb, and estimated wind speed of 61.0kts. (Not sure if that's a surface speed or not.)

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt2.html

That puts it at pretty close to CAT 1 strength right now. The convection is just exploding.Really blooming up. Very impressive. This could be a hurricane within the hour

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 27 2006 04:02 AM

Re: Ernesto

Pressure center looks to be near 16.93N/ 72.85W.
Air temperature of 78.8F at nearly 5000ft. That's Warm!
Must be really warm at the surface.

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 27 2006 04:07 AM

Re: Ernesto

That would make it nearly 100 at the surface? Nocturnal temp??? WOW! Can that be right? I don'tthink so...maybe just that warm upstairs, too. Incidentally, I'm already calling it a hurricane on my website, because I think it soon will be and I gotta get some sleep and it probably will be by the time I get up tomorrow.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 27 2006 04:11 AM

Re: Ernesto

URNT12 KNHC 270804
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/07:26:10Z
B. 16 deg 56 min N
072 deg 51 min W
C. 850 mb 1379 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 303 deg 046 kt
G. 205 deg 004 nm
H. EXTRAP 994 mb
I. 22 C/ 1464 m (temp outside center)
J. 26 C/ 1540 m (Temp inside center)
K. 10 C/ NA___(Dew point inside center)
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0505A ERNESTO OB 11
MAX FL WIND 78 KT NE QUAD 07:32:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB

(Meteorologist)

Sun Aug 27 2006 04:17 AM

Re: Ernesto

Good find on that 78KT wind before the vortex came out Daniel!

78KT flight level wind and a 994MB pressure puts Ernesto right at the brink. Will they upgrade to Hurricane at 4AM or wait? The pressure is a tad high, but the winds are right there.

Worst case it's a 70MPH tropical storm.

cieldumort

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 27 2006 04:18 AM

Re: Ernesto

IMHO, the anticyclone is now building right on top of Ernesto, while deep convection recenters the llc below - he is undergoing somewhat rapid intensification at this time - and may easily become a hurricane very soon -

Daniel294

(Registered User)

Sun Aug 27 2006 04:23 AM

Re: Ernesto

Anybody else that the models are WAY east now? Tampa seems to be the center. Seems that they really see that ridge being strong... not sure if I buy that just yet.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 27 2006 04:26 AM

Re: Ernesto

I was just looking at the text model output.
Looks like 2 go NW and 2 go NE.

And what's with the SHIPS model decaying a Hurricane in the Mid Gulf of Mexico??

Edit: I just checked the SFWMD plot on the front page.
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif

Hurricane Fredrick 1979

(Weather Guru)

Sun Aug 27 2006 04:29 AM

Re: Ernesto

Close but no cigar at the 5AM advisory

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.

Bloodstar

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 27 2006 04:30 AM

Re: Ernesto

Navy has been going with 55Kts and 993mb.

We'll know soon enough, but the T numbers are still dropping 4.3 raw and 4.0 CI# I suspect you'll see a minimal hurricane in about 30 minutes. The storm still seems to be taking on a little southerly shear. which makes the convection slightly lopsided to the north.

The storm is looking even more likely to shoot the gap between Jamaica and Cuba. Obviously the questions are, how long will the storm be over land, How will the ridge break down. and will the storm be able to regain its organization after cuba?

Heh, go figure, just short, but I suspect that'll change soon enough -mmd

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 27 2006 04:31 AM

Re: Ernesto

Quote:

IMHO, the anticyclone is now building right on top of Ernesto, while deep convection recenters the llc below - he is undergoing somewhat rapid intensification at this time - and may easily become a hurricane very soon -

I posted that before 3 pm yesterday afternoon. An anticyclonic ridge has been forming above it for at least 14 hours. It will be a hurricane before dawn most likely.

CaneTrackerInSoFl

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 27 2006 04:33 AM

Re: Ernesto

New advisory in, winds u p to 70 mph. I really hope I just didn't see what I saw. The new map has it recurving near Tampa as a cat 3!

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200605_5day.html

(Weather Hobbyist)

Sun Aug 27 2006 04:38 AM

Re: Ernesto

Quote:

New advisory in, winds u p to 70 mph. I really hope I just didn't see what I saw. The new map has it recurving near Tampa as a cat 3!

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200605_5day.html

That track is our worst case scenario here. NHC has adjusted their's just north of us also-like Hudson or New Port Richey.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 27 2006 04:40 AM

Re: Ernesto

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND ERNESTO COULD BECOME A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE LATER THIS MORNING...
AND A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST OF CUBA.

http://flhurricane.com/text/TCPAT5.txt

(Meteorologist)

Sun Aug 27 2006 04:58 AM

Re: Ernesto

Quick note: The pressure according to the new advisory is 990MB.

That's a few MB's lower than even the recon found. Didn't see anything showing this, but the new package from the NHC is going with 990.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 27 2006 05:02 AM

Re: Ernesto

I saw that pressure once or twice on the dropsonde reports. Since they were extrapolating the pressure I discounted the dropsonde pressure.
Now it would appear that the Flight MET and NHC have gone over the data and are using the 990mb reading.

I also saw a strange jump in aircraft altitude. Unless they are heading back to their base, they climbed over 3500 ft in 3 minutes. I hope that was't an updraft!

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 27 2006 05:08 AM

Vortex

URNT12 KNHC 270850
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/08:34:20Z
B. 17 deg 06 min N
072 deg 57 min W
C. 700 mb 3052 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 104 deg 069 kt
G. 346 deg 007 nm
H. 993 mb
I. 6 C/ 3059 m
J. 14 C/ 3039 m (much cooler air than last report~danielw)
K. 7 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF303 0505A ERNESTO OB 17
MAX FL WIND 78 KT NE QUAD 07:32:40 Z

Black Pearl

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Aug 27 2006 05:22 AM

Re: Hurricane Ernesto

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
515 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

.UPDATE...BASED ON THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FROM NHC...WILL BE MAKING MAJOR REVISIONS TO THE PUBLIC FORECAST PACKAGE THIS MORNING.
HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE GRIDS TO FOLLOW THE NEW FORECAST TRACK.
USED THE 26/18Z GFS AS A BACKGROUND INITIALIZATION FIELD FOR THE WINDS.
WILL BE SETTING UP THE GRIDS ON DAYS THREE THROUGH SEVEN TO FOLLOW CLOSER TO THE MEXMOS OF 27/00Z.

ERNESTO IS NOW A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE WITH WINDS OF 75 MPH.

(Moderator)

Sun Aug 27 2006 05:23 AM

RECON

Change in aircraft altitude may be related to Ernesto's current intensity. It appears that they have changed from an 850mb flight level to a 700mb flight level.

That will change future wind speed reports due to the conversion factor.
I believe Clark posted a list in the Hurricane Ask/ Tell Forum.

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 27 2006 05:25 AM

Re: Vortex

The 5 am discussion by Stewart is blunt and to the point.
Wow.

I'm know a lot of people will be waking up thinking Ernesto is going to the upper gulf coast.
Not so!!
Ernesto will be affecting the entire florida Penninsula from the Keys Northward and cutting
across the state. The track will of course change but I think we know the general
areas that will be affected.

Start today to prepare if you live in Florida.

SebastianLou

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Aug 27 2006 05:26 AM

Re: Ernesto

Looks like I might of by accident got this thing correct before the hurricane center?

Re: Ernesto Strengthens, Targets Gulf [Re: pcola]
#71043 - Sat Aug 26 2006 03:19 PM
Edit post Edit Reply to this post Reply Reply to this post Quote Quick Reply Quick Reply

Just my observations, it almost looks as though something is pulling the storm more nortward than predicted; I know these storms don't follow straight lines, and jog around,but we should look for trends correct? The storm position, thus far, has always been to the right most model predicted location. The NHC has been shifting the CONE slightly right since yesturday, at what point do we say, wait a second, we did not forsee this influence, and pull the entire cone to the right by maybe 100 or so miles if itappears justified. Of course this puts the Florida keys, central Cuba and possibly mainland Florida Pennisula more at risk, but that is beyond our control. It just looks that eastern Jamaica,and the heart of Cuba will be much more likely to be under the gun, along with Florida. The other BIG problem there would be with this possibility, is that bigger chunks of land would be affected much sooner, and we would not have the 5 0r 6 days to prepare that the media keeps reporting. Of course, the storm would not be a Category 4 or more if this played out. Does anyon, that knows more about storms know if the above is appearing to play out, or do I have the right idea with a substantial shift of the track to the right, feel free to explain, if possible???

sorry for the typos, not good with the key board.

Edited by SebastianLou (Sat Aug 26 2006 03:23 PM)

Wxwatcher2

(Storm Tracker)

Sun Aug 27 2006 05:38 AM

Re: Ernesto

Quote:

Looks like I might of by accident got this thing correct before the hurricane center?

I noticed the trend also especially all day yesterday when the storm moved more to the North.
I think the NHC saw the same thing but they have to be cautious which of course
makes you realize what the influences are that made them change this track so
dramaticly from the 11pm to the 5am update.

This is going to be the major news today in Florida as word spreads and
the reality sinks in that the storm may very well be on top of West and Central
Florida by Mid Week.

Again, prepare.