MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed May 09 2007 02:05 PM |
Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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6:30PM Update
Andrea is holding on to itself, convection in the northwestern side has died out much. The water temperature below the storm is not t really high enough to sustain tropical conversion (77F/25C), so it's likely to remain as is. It's not going to be moving much either,at least until Friday it seems. There is still a lot of dry air around the system as well.
The forecast is for it to gradually head toward Florida and dissipate. There is a lot of evidence to support this as well. Andrea will be a mostly dry, moderate wind event with a few showers coming off of it in short bands. Not enough to cause much drought/fire relief in Florida.
If it manages to hang on until the weekend, an approaching cold front and trough are set up to finish it off during the weekend.
10:58 Update
Tropical Storm watches are now up from Altamaha sound in Georgia south to Flagler Beach, FL.
Winds are at 45MPH, pressure 1003 mb.
Andrea is the first named storm in May since 1981s Arlene. And several weeks before the official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Ana in 2003 was also a pre-season named storm in April.
Andrea is expected currently to move slowly southward, interestingly the NHC suggests that it may not make landfall as a named system and will likely dissipate over the next day or so.
This system is mostly a marine and wind event for the coast, which is not good for the fires. Rain, unfortunately, does not appear to be much of a factor with this system. We wil watch it, however.
Original Update
Pre-Season subtropical storm Andrea has formed, advisories should begin at 11AM.
... Windspeeds are near 50MPH. Still rather disorganized.
More to come soon.
[[Andrea(2007)|Andrea]]
(New Season/Storm: Images may be slow to update or old initially.)
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
{{SFWMDPlot|01|1|2007}}
Google Map Plot of System
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Andrea
Floater Satellite Image ( ( visLoop) WV loop)
Radar Loops
{{radarlink|jax|Jacksonville FL}}
{{radarlink|clx|Charleston, SC}}
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne, FL}}
More on the [[Links]] page
| ChessieStorm |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed May 09 2007 02:11 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida Coast
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I want to post a satelite website I use. The only bad thing about it is it doesn't do loops, but it is a close up of the state of Florida and southern Georgia. It also shows the "storm" off the east coast.
Florida Sat. Pic
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed May 09 2007 02:23 PM |
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Andrea indeed
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So it seems that recon found the evidence we lacked and we have our first storm of the season.
It would be easier if the parameters were more specific for sub-tropical storm formation. I suppose it still comes down to making the call on a system that can be viewed by some as borderline.
She hung in pretty good over night.
Good observation on the smoke getting caught up a bit in the storm. Would like to see some post storm analysis on how that did or didn't have an effect.
| Anton Ross |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed May 09 2007 02:48 PM |
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Beaufort, SC feeling little impact
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One would think, just by looking at radar, that coastal SC was getting wetter than it really is. My wife's parents are in Myrtle Beach, and they had some rain/wind overnight, but here in Beaufort, we only had some gusty breezes yesterday and a few spits of rain, but not enough to even soak into the ground. It has "looked" menacing for the last 24 hours...on and off again...but other than a few limbs tossed around a non-event.
I'd be interested in seeing more info about how the GA fires/smoke may have influenced this storm.
Anton
| Doombot! |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 09 2007 02:56 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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Strange thing is that is doesn't look much different than it did last night. Maybe a new "call a duck a duck" policy over at the NHC?
| ChessieStorm |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed May 09 2007 03:00 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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Mike your map of subTS Andrea (on the left of the page) is not working all I get are red x's.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed May 09 2007 03:02 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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Quote:
Mike your map of subTS Andrea (on the left of the page) is not working all I get are red x's.
The left bar/map/coordinates are all automated. That map comes from the NHC, it'll probably take a few minutes for them to put it up.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed May 09 2007 03:06 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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The storm may not be much different than what it was last night, but NHC wasn't going to make the call until a plane got in there to observe the structure of the system.
I doubt the fires have had much effect on the system. Some of the individual convective cells on the periphery of the system may be affected by ingesting the smoke (akin to a cloud "seeding" effect), but the overall structure of the system should not be affected.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed May 09 2007 03:07 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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an interesting note to this is that we now have the first named storm in May in 26 years
| PutnamGator |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed May 09 2007 03:09 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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So far all we are getting from Andrea is wind, which is exactly what we do NOT need. The fire situation is getting worse, so we need rain, not wind, and the advisory states to not expect much rain inland from it before Thursday morning.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Wed May 09 2007 03:54 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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In case anyone was wondering if having a named storm this early means a very bad season,take a look here: http://www.umbc.edu/ges/student_projects/Geog480_HurricaneWebPage/fullres1981.html You will see that in 1981(the last time this happened)it was a near normal season.So let's hope this season will be also.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 09 2007 04:11 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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A bit too early to be following a system but so be it.
Like everyone else, I wish it would bring some rain for the Florida Fire situation. Lots of smoke in the air today in Central Florida.
Intresting thought about what effect smoke has on a tropical system. My first thought would be that it would have a negative effect but I wonder what the experts think....
Hello to everyone.
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 09 2007 04:12 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed May 09 2007 04:19 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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Well, convection still isn't over the center, but it is closer to the center and of slightly better "quality" than yesterday. Also, as the NHC noted, the radius of maximum winds has contracted since yesterday, another sign of better organization. Thus, given the flat thermal profiles that recon found -- which aren't all that far off from what the models had shown, probably because of the Jacksonville and Charleston upper air obs and their trajectories -- we've got a subtropical storm.
In my opinion, it's still a borderline case, but given the proximity to land it gets the upgrade. If this were out in the central Atlantic, I'm not so sure it gets the upgrade regardless of recon status. As for impacts from this one, think Tammy from 2005, only on the opposite trajectory (southwest then south rather than north then northwest). Tammy was another storm with dubious structure that eventually brought an inch or so of rain to parts of the Southeast US.
NHC forecast looks good and reasonable; this is one where you really don't need modeling, at least for the intensity portion. SSTs aren't warming -- and in fact cool from here on out -- and the upper level temperatures at the tropopause aren't cooling, so it's like a TC over cooler waters in the East Pacific. A slow decay should be expected over the next couple of days, made slower by the fact that it still has a signature aloft.
It's been an interesting week for the storm system that spawned Andrea, starting off in Texas with two consecutive nights of MCS formation (including one night with a derecho) and progressing eastward along the periphery of the subtropical ridge that had been parked near Florida. The last TC that I can recall that had any tie to an MCS (large thunderstorm complex over land) was Danny in 1997, which formed in the Gulf after one such complex moved out over water and did not dissipate like most of them do.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed May 09 2007 05:33 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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The storm will slowly weaken in time. The LLC will try to vent a weak high over it as it pulls south-sw over the next 24-36 hours. It will have its mid and upper low now to its east and northeast and ridge over the NE gulf. It doesnt look well on Satellite right now..but I expect T-Showers to develop more overnight (as warmcore systems do). I dont think though it will gain strength..infact slight weakening as Clark said due to many limiting factors..including cool ssts in the mid 70s down to the Cape. I think it has a chance to come inland near St Augustine..maybe down towards Daytona Beach.. main impact with this system will be much needed rain squalls and some coastle flooding and erosion on the beaches.
Next ...possible 20% chance for a system to come up from the carribean in about a weeks time. Patten should set up with the 588mb ridge in the eastern carribean should push moisture N towards Cuba, Florida and the Bahamas next week.
| Wingman51 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed May 09 2007 06:05 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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Just a brief note - There has been a death attributed to Andrea this morning - - Surfer in the waves at New Smyrna Beach - - Also hearing about significant erosion in volusia County.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed May 09 2007 06:10 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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I've seen this so called weakening trend, in my opinion, it is probably going through some re-organization. Maybe.. not saying it is, maybe it could actually be weakening, but I think it's just a fluctuation, the banding looks good now but the convection has weakened, especially to the west.. but, the east convection is re-strengthening. Try not to call the storm dead just yet, it's still got a day to go before hitting my county here in Florida!
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed May 09 2007 06:32 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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If the storm is going to have any real organization and stregthening, it will be tonight. If the upper atmosphere can cool enough to push the system towards a tropical (warmcore) system, then you'll see the convection fire up bit bit more, and perhaps even some central convection.
If tonight, you don't see much convection, then the system will likely simply spin down off the coast.
At least that's my take on it.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed May 09 2007 06:59 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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well here's the LATEST satellite from wunderground.. looks like a new center is redeveloping nicely to the east.. here's the site
http://www.wunderground.com/satellite/vis/1k/US.html
Something tells me it wants to do something
| ChessieStorm |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed May 09 2007 07:01 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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Isn't it forecasted to spin down? I haven't seen anything on it strengthening, but rather slowly weakening and maybe cross the state as a low pressure system and then get caught up in a frontal boundary moving east.
Water temps aren't that high out there and the gulf stream isn't burning up either, granted I've seen storms maintain strength in cooler waters, so anything is possible.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed May 09 2007 07:09 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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allan that is just a opening in the cloudy shield.. the LLC is about 45miles west of there....it maybe that the opening is also the midlevel circulation now as forecasted...that will then push Andrea later SSW towards St. Augustine by morning!.
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed May 09 2007 07:24 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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Clark and others . Would this storm have any chance to do anything if it made the GOM ? Models seem to still be all over the place with this storm . Seems to be getting a little big better organized over the past hour with some new convection starting to fire.
Link to SF WMD model (Converted to link for "Image size and linking." rule.)
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed May 09 2007 07:40 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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Sorry about that,
Wasn't implying it was supposed to strengthen, but instead that if it was going to have any window to buck the odds, tonight would be the most likely time it would do so.
| Jumaduke |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed May 09 2007 07:47 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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I'm curious to know if this storm will be steered North, out into the Atlantic, or if it will be shoved down onto Florida. We really really could use a TS right now. I saw a graphic earlier that projected it heading NE and was very sad. Also, if I'm not mistaken, the last few satellite images I saw showed it seemingly less organized and producing less rain.
| ChessieStorm |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed May 09 2007 08:30 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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Bloodstar, I know what you're talking about. At night these storms, ragged or organized, get cranked up, I guess we'll see if Andrea does or not.
But it certainly isn't going to be turning into a monster or whatever. All bark and no bite. Plus we need the rain.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed May 09 2007 08:35 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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I highly doubt it makes the GoM; if it does, it will be in a severely weakened state and need several days of re-organization to get going, which it won't have given an approaching upper level trough and associated cold front into the weekend.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Wed May 09 2007 09:46 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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Deep convection has all but disappeared from the western side of the circulation, with just a few shallow showers left on the skeletal bands. However, the eastern side is a different story, with increasing deep convection now flaring up. If this can wrap around a bit more into this evening and overnight, then Andrea could hold on as a little stronger for a little longer.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed May 09 2007 09:55 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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Ya, I totally agree.. maybe she could surprise us with 60 mph. later tonight or in the morning. It looks "ok" for a 40 mph. tropical storm. I think it's finally becoming purely tropical, I may be wrong.. but thats what I think. I agree with the track but not with the strengh. She may be a stronger storm when it hits here in Palm Coast. SOmething to watch. Deffinatly no hurricane LOL
| weather_wise911 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed May 09 2007 10:27 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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I have to disagree... this storm has not impressed me thus far, and I don't expect it to. In fact, I'm not 100% sure it was a good call by the NHC to classify this as a subtropical storm.
Anyway, whether or not it does make a completely tropical transition--which I, again, don't expect at all--the forecast would remain the same, increased wave activity, rip current risk, minor beach erosion, gusty conditions, and showers off & on... not much else.
WW-911
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu May 10 2007 04:03 AM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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Lookin pretty weak right now. Little convection on the west side at all and that on the right doesn't appear to be wrapping. Sure hope she can hang long enough to enhance our rain chance.....
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu May 10 2007 09:50 AM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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Satellite imagery through 0925z ( 5:35 am edt) is indicating light to moderate shear in the mid to upper levels of Andrea.
Rough estimate of 25-30 nm difference between the Surface Center and the mid/ upper level center.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
Models--- There is at least one model over the last 36 hours ...that takes some part, or all of Andrea into the GOM.
And several of the intensity models start increasing the wind speed at 60 hours, or Noon Saturday.
Watch and see...
Recon is still in the chocks, but should be airborne shortly.
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu May 10 2007 03:01 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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818
WTNT31 KNHC 101443
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012007
1100 AM EDT THU MAY 10 2007
...ANDREA WEAKENS TO A SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION...
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IS DISCONTINUED.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ANDREA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.9 WEST OR ABOUT
100 MILES...160 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA AND
ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...NORTHEAST OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA.
THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING GENERALLY SOUTHWARD...AND THIS SLOW
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CENTER OF ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST TODAY.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 35
MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE PLANE
WAS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.
ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...29.9 N...79.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...SOUTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu May 10 2007 03:03 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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Futher intensification is very unlikely as i was thinking with these fast upper level winds and all this dry air its really taken a toll.
A COMEBACK SEEMS UNLIKELY IN THE DRY AND STABLE
ENVIRONMENT...COMBINED WITH NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR...DEPICTED IN
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. A CONTINUED DECLINE IS FORECAST...AND UNLESS
DEEP CONVECTION REDEVEOPS SOON...ANDREA WILL PROBABLY NO LONGER
QUALIFY AS A DEPRESSION BY TOMORROW OR PERHAPS EARLIER.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu May 10 2007 04:23 PM |
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careful wording there
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Note the use of the word "probably" as May or really June storms can be the hardest to predict as steering currents are not set in stone or as predictable.
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu May 10 2007 05:25 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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Quote:
ANDREA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
ONE-HALF TO ONE INCH ALONG COASTAL AREAS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
well, 3-4 inches would have been better, but we will thankfully take anything Andrea can give us.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu May 10 2007 06:18 PM |
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Re: Subtropical Storm Andrea Forms off Florida/Georgia Coast
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At this point, the only reason they'll continue advisories past 5PM is the proximity to the coast. It's pretty much DOA. (of course watch convection redevelop on the SE side in the next hour or two. heh)
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Fri May 11 2007 02:26 AM |
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on the slide
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there's still some convective banding with andrea... just a little. andrea didn't have much of an environmental window to organize... once it's baroclinic energy began to wane it just managed to hybridize, and is now reaping the reward of being a weak tropical system in a dry, marginal environment. the pre-andrea low was still quite a coastal storm for this time of year. there seems to have been very little benefit as far as drought-relief, but the rest of the storm's side effects seem to have helped the wildfires more than anything.
andrea can continue drifting south, and probably not find any help as far as warmer waters go. the nearby environment should become increasingly baroclinic this weekend and the remnant will probably become involved and whip out to sea, just like the forecast says. aside from nicole in 2004, andrea is now the only named subtropical system that was operationally tracked that didn't become fully tropical. i mean, it still could, but very unlikely.
HF 0326z11may
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri May 11 2007 10:41 AM |
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Friday Morning
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As Hank eluded to. The remnants of STD Andrea are still lurking off of the Eastern Florida Coast.
At 6 AM EDT the convection on the eastern side of the Low has a convective tower with 1 solitary top to 40,000 feet. The convective tower appears to be over the Gulf Stream.
Melbourne NWS radar loop is indicating a near Southward motion. However the Storm Relative Velocity winds are from 277degrees(WNW) at 17 knots.
Personally, I will continue to keep an eye,or two, on the Low. Mainly due to past experiences.
The 00Z model run of the NOGAPS still had something, at some level, moving into the GOM.
Keep an eye or ear on the weather this weekend. Just in case.
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri May 11 2007 12:21 PM |
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Re: Friday Morning
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Quote:
Personally, I will continue to keep an eye,or two, on the Low. Mainly due to past experiences.
Has that kind of semi-DOA and disorganized depression ever recovered into a better organized system in the past?
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri May 11 2007 02:19 PM |
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Re: Friday Morning
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Yes, Vineyard. While I am not awake-enough to recall for you the numerous examples of "dead" named systems that have flared back to life, they have, indeed, been numerous. Perhaps one that always stands out in my mind as one of the _most striking_ examples of such a re-awakening is Hurricane Ivan. Read more about him here and here , for example.
In regards to that one 40k topped tower of overnight... things actually look better for Andrea now than Thursday afternoon. This morning I awake to see a healthy ball of convection nearly right over the lower level center. If anything, Andrea strikes me far more like a struggling Tropical Depression, than a dissipating Sub tropical Depression, this morning. Notice the small but healthier and somewhat more concentrated and concentric rainbands that have persisted now for a few hours visible from the Melbourne radar sight? These features are much, much more tropical-like than subtropical.
She's over a warmer fetch of the Gulf Stream at this point. Wind shear once again seems low, and there now appears to be less dry air to ingest. A few more hours of this kind of activity, and especially if they get some buoy and/or ship data coming in that suggests winds are also picking up and pressures are dropping once again, they will certainly have to restart advisories. Too close to land not to.
I always say never write-off a so-called "dead" tropical or subtropical entity. If nothing else, they can now behave like a tropical wave or other such TC precursor for the next system. A smashing example of this is how TD10 in 2005 blended with TD12 to birth one certain K-named storm.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri May 11 2007 02:42 PM |
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Re: Friday Morning
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yeah there is alot of convection right now and what is that other blob ne of her? is it too early to be talking about the huge waves coming off of africa because they look pretty awesome right now.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri May 11 2007 03:48 PM |
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Re: Friday Morning
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Nice monsoon trough setting up there, but the waves are certainly too far south and with exceptionally high shear just to their north to be of any immediate concern, imho. Still, lots of bubbling going on in western Africa.
Getting back to Andrea, NHC is now considering another recon Saturday
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1130 AM EDT FRI 11 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z MAY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-004
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0301A ANDREA
C. 12/1600Z
D. 29.0N 79.0W
E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: PSBL MISSION INTO
ANDREA NEAR 32N AND 73W FOR 13/1800Z IF SYSTEM IS
A THREAT.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri May 11 2007 03:52 PM |
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Re: Friday Morning
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Looks like it finally started to gain big time convection. Although the NHC doesn't seemed to impressed with it, they are sending a plane tommorrow morning again. Though the blow up may end earlier then that. I did hear that shear is decreasing and that conditions are going to be favorable till Sunday. Been reading the wunderground blogs and some say that the blow up is ending but then I look at the latest IR image, it isn't close to over. Maybe those people just doesn't want to see Andrea back on the maps. Would love it if it gains 60 mph. winds and heavy rains, and head north to Flagler
Anyways, Andrea is surely making a comeback and it's still growing, Named by 5 p.m,?
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri May 11 2007 03:59 PM |
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Not dead yet?
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What's left of Andrea may have drifted far enough south to get back into warmer waters and a temporarily less sheared environment.. I'm hesitant to even call it a small CDO yet. but if it does presist for a few more hours, the NHC may have to reinitiate advisories on the system at 5PM. This time as a fully tropical system.
The proximity to land may also force their hand. But again, give a few more hours to show presistanace (I would hazard that's why they didn't restart advisories at 11). There's also the possibility the LLC may be dragged further south as the convection pulses, which could also bring it to warmer waters.
Guess we'll be doing a wait and see.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Fri May 11 2007 04:20 PM |
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Re: Not dead yet?
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Looks like the LLCC, which is still remarkably well intact, has pulled much closer to the area of deep convection during the past couple of hours. Guess this might not be quite done yet! But can it hold onto the convection, or is this just a short lived attempt at a comeback??
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Fri May 11 2007 04:45 PM |
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Re: Not dead yet?
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This is getting interesting.Looks like there maybe some rotation starting.Not much shear at all and higher SST.Should know alot more by tommorow am. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri May 11 2007 06:08 PM |
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Re: Not dead yet?
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Yes, the LLC snuggled under some convection, but looking at close-up loops of both the convective flareup and the radar out of Melbourne it appears that the bands themselves are not getting any tighter, overall, but rather are slowly spreading out. Certainly it is actually warmcore-ish now, but hitting this diurnal max might be the final final of Andrea. Think we will need to wait to see if substantially more convection starts to blow up at some point in the next 18 hours or so, otherwise this mornings resurgence is more likely to fizzle, again, and be blown away, as she would literally decay from the inside-out.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Fri May 11 2007 06:43 PM |
|
Re: Not dead yet?
|
LAST NIGHT SUBTROPICAL STORM ANDREA DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT
LOW AND THE LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. HOWEVER..SINCE THIS
MORNING CONVECTION HAS FLARED UP NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS SFC LOW
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.7 WEST AT
11/1500Z...SUGGESTING THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO ACQUIRE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT...THE SYSTEM IS OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS AND IS
BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL EVIDENCE OF ORGANIZATION.
Interesting!!
EDIT: Now we have a STDS too!