MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 04:06 AM |
2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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5p ET Update: Tropical Storm Barry comes to be...
3:15p ET 6/1 Update: The recon plane in the disturbance has found a minimum pressure of 1000mb and maximum flight level (about 1000ft aloft) winds of 52kt. More importantly, it has found a decent warm-core structure at low levels and I would anticipate an upgrade to Tropical Storm Barry at 5p.
Original Update
The 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins today, and we are watching a system in the western Caribbean that may bring rain to Florida.
The system still isn't likely to develop much, if at all, as conditions for it doing so are becoming more hostile.
See Clark's blog below for more information about this system.
Although we always hope for another inactive season, this year is expected to be an above average year for storms, so it could get busy. Normally June is a slow month, as the season really doesn't start to get going until August.
Flhurricane is a non-profit site, but still requires resources to run, we emphasize quality information over quantity, and focus on the information with an outlet for communication. We do not celebrate the arrival of hurricanes or hurricane season, as the point is to help keep people informed and encourage using multiple sources of information to help make decisions, always preferring the use of official sources over unofficial ones.
If you would like to donate to help out, please see the [[Site_Donations_and_Thanks|Donations and Thanks]] Page for more information.
Storm Names for 2007 are
{{2007StormNames}}
Andrea, a preseason Subtropical Storm, has already formed, so the next system will be the "B" system.
For Floridians, a sales tax holiday begins today and lasts until midnight on June 12th, you can get the following hurricane related items sans sales tax in this time:
{{HurricaneTaxFreeItems}}
Yesterday's Update
Tomorrow is the start of the 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season, and we are still watching an area in the Western Caribbean. Now being tracked as Invest 92L. It at least may bring rain to the Florida Peninsula later.
We'll be watching this as a possible opener for the new season. Some models have been predicting more than what we actually wound up with today, but still convection has flared up overnight. If this persists we may be tracking something soon. Florida potentially could get too much rain (well too much in a short period of time) depending on where the system winds up. But by the time it gets to Florida, the forward motion should be quicker, thus reducing the flash flood potential.
Model links at the bottom of the main page can give you an idea what is projected.
It is most likely going to remain a rain event, however, as the upper air environment isn't all that hot for development.. Also the stacking needed is just not there But still the chance for some tropical (or subtropical) development is there, it will need to be watched for persistence.
Hurricane Hunter Aircraft have been scheduled to check out this system tomorrow, if needed.
The east pacific already has Barbara, will the Atlantic catch up with another early storm? It may not wind up being purely tropical.
{{StormLinks|02|02|2|2007|2|W. Caribbean Storm}}
{{StormCarib}}
Radar Loops
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami, FL}}
{{radarlink|tbw|Tampa Bay/Ruskin, FL}}
{{CancunRadar}}
Rainbow Enhancement GOM and W Caribbean
Main Page for the SSD satellite products is here.
NOAA SSD Tropical Satellite Page
More on the [[Links]] page
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 04:22 AM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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From what I am observing of satellite trends, the curent system of interest is already attempting a transition to hybrid/baroclinic morphology (phase transition). The trough digging will likely, from this point forward, dictate this system's physical evolution. This is thus transforming into an unusual circumstance of sorts, in that for such an extremely low latitude, we are seeing cyclogenesis for jet mechanics working on horizontally induced theta-e gradients, at such at late date.
However, there will still be some residual tropical characteristics lingering considering origin. In situ proximity to native environment over the northwest Caribbean and southeast Gulf means more latent heat input than this type of trough really needs.
There may also be specific (detailed) windows of opportunity as discussed by my self in particular, but also Tony, as this entity begins to migrate north by northeast toward Florida and beyond.
Caveat: There is always an air of uncertainty when dealing with systems in this particular lat/lon, at this time of year. There is sufficient oceanic heat content should the environment closer to the Yuc Penn couple up between atm and SST. Namely, if this system remains very shallow, there is a "slim" chance it could be left behind. I have seen at least one (more though) model runs that showed chances for spin ups long after this major migration out of the area. That could be an indication that the area remains fertile post trough lifting out.
...A bit more speculation than perhaps wanted...apologies. It is worth noting however, as it does deal with the system currently in question.
Clark has also given a fine run down in his blog entry...I suggest you read it for educational and current conceptual clarity.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 12:27 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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Wake up, everybody! It's officially hurricane season!
Doesn't look very healthy this am, but the NHD TWO still talks about the possibility of tropical development. Also, the models have now shifted more to an up the coast track...we're not as destitute as FL with rain, but well under the anuual average here, too.
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 12:43 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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I'm not a wave mongerer, but you know, in this case, I'm PRAYING for rain. Does that count as wish-casting?
This morning, here in west Charlotte County, it's overcast, and there's a very light breeze out of the east. It hasn't rained here yet, but radar has shown it rained a little on the southern end of the peninsula. We're on the far northern edge of this system at this point.
Still a light smell of smoke in the air from the Lake O fire.
And am I reading the recon report right -- did they cancel today's recon?
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 12:48 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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Nope, recon is still a go and I believe it's a smart thing to go ahead and still fly into this mess because there's still convection.. it's not like there's nothing to fly into so we will see what the recon reports give us later on today.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 12:49 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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Recon was cancelled for Barbara in the EPAC. Still on for Invest in the GOM
| CoconutCandy |
| (User) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 12:56 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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Morning All,
It would seem that the 'center' of circulation is just now coming onto the long-range radar out of Key West.
There is a thunderstorm that shows up quite nicely on the radar loop, that is just NE of the apparent center.
But it's not the supercell type (-80 degrees and colder), and most of the convective banding that is developing is well away from the center of circulation, suggesting more of a sub-tropical appearance.
I suggest that it will become sub-tropical, at best, as the shear is only going to get stronger with time.
But! The GREAT news is that Florida is going to get the good soaking it deserves.
At last! I think there will be more than a few people dancing in the rain, so to speak.
Wishing everyone an interesting and Safe! '07 Hurricane Season. Be Prepared!
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 01:19 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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When I go to the NHC website and click on the Recon link for today, I see this:
Quote:
000
NOUS42 KNHC 301400
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1000 AM EDT THU 30 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 31/1100Z MAY TO 01/1100Z JUNE 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-007
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM BARBARA
A. 30/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0102E BARBARA
C. 30/1300Z
D. 13.0N 97.0W
E. 30/1700 TO 30/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX BARBARA AT 01/1800Z
NEAR 13.2N 96.7W IF SYSTEM REMAINS A THREAT.
Am I looking at the wrong link or did they just not update yet?
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 01:22 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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000
NOUS42 KNHC 311500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT THU 31 MAY 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z JUNE 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-008
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 01/1600Z
D. 24.0N 87.0W
E. 01/1700 TO 01/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 02/1200Z
NEAR 27N 84W IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
you have to go to plan for tomorrow. they have not updated the site yet but look at the top is says 01 for June 1, which is today 1800 z
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 02:29 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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Whether or not this system is classified as a subtropical or tropical entity matters very little in its overall impact. However, since people are more likely to respond to "Barry" than just another "low pressure" system, the NHC will probably give it the nod if recon finds a closed low. Convection is increasing and persisting in its eastern quadrant and wind speeds are certainly sufficient for at least TD strength. Possibly a similar impact as Alberto last year.
| JFTD3 |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 03:26 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 011504
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI JUN 1 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN YESTERDAY HAS MOVED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT
HAVE A WELL DEFINED CENTER BUT IS ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF
SQUALLS MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CIRCULATION. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME LESS
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN THE
ORGANIZATION COULD BRING THE SYSTEM TO TROPICAL OR SUTROPICAL
CYCLONE STATUS. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO CHECK THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER THE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER
WESTERN CUBA AND WILL SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 03:41 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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Ah, okay. That was confusing!
Update -- We're getting RAIN in western Charlotte county! It finally started raining nearly an hour ago. It's a steady, light drizzle. The PERFECT kind of rain to soak into the ground. Yippee!
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 04:20 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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OK,
just had a quick glance at the latest vis imagery and loops. Looks like we have a defined centre of circulation at the surface, now due north of the western tip of Cuba, and on the southwestern side of the cloud shield. Convection isnt deep, and the system is pretty lop-sided in that the majority of the activity is located to the right side. If anything i would suggest it is at best sub-tropical. With RECON now enroute we should know more in the next few hours.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 04:51 PM |
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circulation center on visible
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html
very visible image there proving there is some center but is that at the surface?
are the planes going into that area specifically
amazing to watch on imagery
Just a word of reason though... it is very cool in Miami, the ocean temps are not high and I was in the Keys all last week and it wasn't very warm there. This system feels more frontal or extra-tropical even if they find a center.. just doesn't quite feel like a Tropical entity even though we are down in the Tropics.
Lots of mosquitos too from the recent rains.. watch out Tampa
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 05:08 PM |
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Re: circulation center on visible
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There investigating the system now.. here's the first report!
Fri Jun 01 2007
1656 GMT
Latitude 27.6 N
Longitude 88.1 W
No turbulence
Currently flying in the clear
Flight altitude 22999 feet (7010 meters)
Flight level winds 200 degrees at 34 knots (39 mph)
Temperature -18 C Dewpoint -27 C
Remarks: AF307 01BBA INVEST OB 01
... Looks to me if winds continue to stay or get stronger, Barry will be named.. though i'm not good with reading these reports so somebody help me out here lol.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 05:10 PM |
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Re: circulation center on visible
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On that image, it clearly does look more like a front than any kind of tropical system.
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 05:18 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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A defined circulation has certainly developed around 23.3N 85.5W. If recon can close off this low, then the system will probably be classified at 5pm, or as a special advisory. Winds are already sustained at 35mph in the rainbands east of the circulation. Its hybrid/lopsided nature will limit intensification, but we could very well have a close repeat of Alberto this time last year.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 05:19 PM |
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Re: circulation center on visible
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thank you Ed for your help translating that.. they always confuse me.
thats the one thing I never seem to have been able to figure out..
rain coming down in miami.. straight and heavy
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 05:27 PM |
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Re: circulation center on visible
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It dont take much to call a storm subtropical...all it needs its 35kt winds at the surface close to the center (near the storms) and a warm core center. ... This does have a marginal warm core center but its in a shear enviroment. Water temps are in the low 80s. I dont think its fully tropical though..nonetheless if they find this a closed center(as it is) then they will issues tropical storm warnings at 5pm. Bouys well east and near Cuba have exceeded 52mph. Models still say that this hybrid type system will have winds near 50mph by morning..Affects on the land will only be 25-40mph near and east of the strengthening hybrid system. It should be extratropical or more baroclinic after it makes landfall in florida from Sarasota-Citrus County. Overall this will bring rainfall amounts around 2-4 inches over most locations east of the center...isolated amounts up to 6inches. To the north of the center..expect less then a inch as drier air will be pulled in from the west. Isolated tornados will accompany in isloted stronger cells over florida..especially on Saturday when the system approaces land.
bottom line..tropical or not...its strengthing and will all the way till it passes the carolinas...the winds will continue to pick up and expand up the coast from Florida-NC by Sunday.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 05:30 PM |
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Re: circulation center on visible
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I agree.. very broad area of circulation, they already found winds over 35 mph. So it will most likely become Sub-tropical Storm Barry.. though has there ever been a sub-tropical storm in the GOM or Carribean??
I only heard of ones in the Atlantic Ocean
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 05:35 PM |
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isn't it moving fast?
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Or did the center everyone is currently talking about jump a lot?
Seems to me it's moving a bit too fast to organize..
Did hear talk that a part of this energy might sit around and form into another storm possibly.. guess we will have to wait and see.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 06:02 PM |
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Re: isn't it moving fast?
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they might just call it Barry...or Subtropical Barry....just matters on what recon finds with their data. We know we have the winds and pressure of a TS but there are other things that go along with it. Also it will continue to strengthn with low 80s water temps and it has 24-30hrs with tonights durational max.Its tropical but picking up baroclincal characterists..and thats making it stronger and better organized.
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 06:02 PM |
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Re: isn't it moving fast?
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The system is already on the move and will produce a 36-48 hour rain event for Florida, with some tropical storm force winds on the west coast. NWS Tampa believes that the center will be west of Tampa by Saturday afternoon. We can probably expect landfall in the Big Bend on Sunday. I am impressed by the way this system has developed today. I am fairly confident that we will see Barry classified soon. I agree with scott that the baroclinic environment will actually help strengthen this system as a hybrid storm...not uncommon early and late in the season for the Gulf of Mexico.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 06:07 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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Well, recon is on its way, at 25.1N and 86.8W in the last report I saw. Based upon visible satellite imagery, I'd place the center just south of 24N and along 86W right now, so I imagine they will fly NW-SE across the center for their first leg. It's not so much critical what sort of winds they find in the disturbance (marginal TD/TS it seems right now) as it is the temperature profile. The plane is flying a low-level mission about 1000ft off the surface of the ocean, where it is most likely to find a warm-core structure. If it finds one there, don't be surprised to see some sort of designation at 5p. It may also pull up to about 850 or 700mb to gauge the thermal structure and nature of the circulation there to help with that designation. Either way, it doesn't change what we can expect from this thing -- rain.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 06:11 PM |
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Re: isn't it moving fast?
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looks like recon did the first pass by, through what looks like an open low center.... winds look to be right around 35mph at surface. see models are coming into a better agreement this afternoon. more toward the big bend are of florida, like last years storm. The low out in the upper midwest seems to be the deciding factor again with our first system of the season. There is just so much shear, its going to be interesting what they find. I expect the may find TS force winds, but will the name it? If the current shear over the center holds, i would expect the low to be clearly seen the rest of the day! One thing is sure, rain is on the way for most of the state. MUCH NEED RAIN!!!
Sat Vis
Lowest pressure i have seen is a 1004mb from recon. Winds 35mphs?
*latest Pressure i see now is 1003mb.. looks like there was no vortex drop as of yet. on the 11 obs now
***Check out the new http://www.hurricanehunters.com/ web site!!!
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 07:18 PM |
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Re: isn't it moving fast?
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I edited the main post with the basics of what recon found, but here's the vortex message:
URNT12 KNHC 011912
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/18:58:40Z
B. 23 deg 55 min N
085 deg 45 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 45 kt
E. 222 deg 011 nm
F. 329 deg 052 kt
G. 221 deg 011 nm
H. EXTRAP 1000 mb
I. 22 C/ 305 m
J. 24 C/ 305 m
K. / C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF307 01BBA INVEST OB 11
MAX FL WIND 52 KT SW QUAD 18:55:10 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
I've bolded the two key points. The first one deals with maximum flight level winds, at about 1000ft aloft. 52kt isn't too shabby and is still TS force when you reduce them to the surface. More importantly, that wind came just 11 n. mi. from the center -- a hallmark of a tropical cyclone.
The second one deals with the thermal structure. Recon found temperatures at low levels 2C warmer at the center than outside of it, suggesting a warm-core structure and potential subtropical/tropical system. Given the wind data, I think we'll see a tropical storm out of this.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 07:21 PM |
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Re: isn't it moving fast?
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Latest recon has estimated max surface winds at 45 knots and the pressure (extrapolated) at 1000 millibars. Max flight level winds at 52 knots.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 07:25 PM |
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Re: isn't it moving fast?
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Folks.. I want to calmy introduce our new TROPICAL STORM BARRY! Don't believe me? Check the nvy and try to find 92L...
Anyways, I had a feeling all day that they would go ahead and pull the triger and guess what the other thing is.......
It's heading straight here!
| Jamiewx |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 07:26 PM |
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Re: isn't it moving fast?
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02L.NONAME
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 07:44 PM |
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Re: isn't it moving fast?
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02LNONAME.40kts-1000mb-237N-855W.10O
would expect a statement to be issued shortly, based on it being so close to land... aka in the southern Gulf of Mexico.... and would expect the 5pm adv to have warnings and watches of TS to be up, mainly on the west coast of fla. a heavy rain maker, like clark said!
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 07:53 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: isn't it moving fast?
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Big time blowup on the Northern side of the COC. (See attached).
| West FL Jess |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 07:56 PM |
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Re: isn't it moving fast?
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on the Weather Channel they just said Hurricane Hunters reported winds up to 60mph at 500ft...
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 07:58 PM |
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Re: isn't it moving fast?
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i find it odd that with 45 mph winds at least that NRL still has it as a depression
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 08:00 PM |
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Re: isn't it moving fast?
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just looking at vis on that... and our system is right over what would be the loop current. if this was july or later... it be an whole different story, but it is not and this is going to be such a fast moving system, that it wont have any of the ideal condiditons to do anything but bring some good moisture to the state.. and maybe some moderate winds as of right now. SHEAR and the trough!
Agree with clark.. been looking at the HDOB from AF307.... and the drops... Warm core would point to a tropical system, with what the winds they are finding.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 08:00 PM |
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Re: isn't it moving fast?
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Given what we're seeing now on satellite and in the recon data, I strongly believe that we need to discount the majority of the model guidance at this point. None of the models have nearly as well-defined of a system as we presently have, making their tracks and depictions suspect since they tend to jump the low center around more than can probably be expected at this point.
Satellite loops suggest that the storm is moving just slightly east of due north right now, maybe 010 degrees. The vort max in the Gulf is currently centered in the N. Gulf SSW of New Orleans and is nearly stationary or drifting slowly toward the east. Long-term loops suggest no significant movement despite influences from last night's upstream MCS and a strong Pacific jet across the SW US. It's quite possible that the convection associated with our disturbance/storm is trying to amplify the ridging downstream just slightly, potentially providing a slight hindrance to this feature moving more easterly at this point. It, along with the movement of the storm to the north, is probably also reducing the storm-relative shear over the storm.
Steering flow in the mid-levels and extrapolation of the vort max would suggest that not much has changed to my threat regions outlined from last night, specifically from the Big Bend to about Crystal River. If forced to choose, I would go very near Cedar Key. This is west of most of the earlier model guidance. It will be interesting to see what the NHC does at 5p in terms of track and watches/warnings. Intensity? Moderate TS is still the thinking, probably peaking off-shore overnight and then weakening near landfall due to cooler SSTs (unless it gets a significant baroclinic boost).
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 08:03 PM |
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Re: isn't it moving fast?
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I am amazed and shocked that the Nam did such a good job on this system. I expect us to have sub tropical storm Barry at 5pm and watches and warnings will be up for for parts of FL. A big bend landfall is the best possible thing cause it will bring much needed to rain to most of Fl and Ga. Let's just hope the shear holds this thing in check and we don't get any suprises. It's starting to look more impressive by the minute
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES19252007152iCbhvb.jpg
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 08:17 PM |
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Re: isn't it moving fast?
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Regardless of whether it's subtropical or tropical, it was pretty clear that Barry-to-be had that Western Caribbean "look" to it that loiscane talks about a lot yesterday. I had it progged somewhere between Tampa and the Big Bend possibly as high as a midgrade (sub)tropical storm. I think that holds. There may be some gusts to the north and east of the system of up to 60mph before all is said and done, but mostly it's going to be a great rainmaker for the Sunshine State. You guys need it.
So far, not much has made the "storm totals" on the radars unless you jog down to the Key West doppler site. Here's the link.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=byx&product=NTP&overlay=11101111&loop=no
Steve
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 08:22 PM |
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Re: isn't it moving fast?
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I just checked the key west radar when you posted it. I was hoping for more of the yellow and red over land. It doesn't mean much over water. But I guess I'll take any drops. Hope the Lake gets a foot of rain. Your right steve about track. Should start bending a little more east before landfall. Hopefully Florida will get more systems like this and no Hurricanes this year.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 08:26 PM |
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Re: isn't it moving fast?
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Agreed lonny. I'm thinking a general 1-2" swath with some up to 5". One thing about doppler estimates is they can also underestimate rainfall. People make a big deal out of the fact that they sometimes overestimate rainfall totals, but they can also underestimate them in weak systems. Some of that rainfall just isn't picked up. At least it looks like a good stretch of .3-.6" so far in South Florida. And if you look at the actual radar, there's plenty more where that came from. So far it's just a "trace" in most of the rest of the Peninsula but that should be changing overnight and tomorrow. Maybe this will clamp down on the fire threats and at least start the process of getting some of those water levels back to normal again.
Steve
| hurricaneguy |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 08:34 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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Welcome Barry!
...TROPICAL STORM BARRY FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM BONITA BEACH NORTHWARD TO KEATON
BEACH...AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF
KEATON BEACH TO ST. MARKS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 320
MILES...520 KM...SOUTHWEST OF TAMPA FLORIDA AND ABOUT 235 MILES...
375 KM...WEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.
BARRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED BEFORE
BARRY REACHES THE COAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF UP TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE
CENTER OF BARRY MAKES LANDFALL.
BARRY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PENINSULA INTO SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 08:38 PM |
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now Barry on the Navy site
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Well,
I'll do a minor bit of crow eating, as i really didn't expect it to spin up as well as it has. though i think the LLC didn't form until early this morning, and it's still a marginal call, with the very lopsided convection and exposed LLC. But it's better to be safe than sorry with a storm heading to the coast. and particularly one that appears to be stregthening rather than steady state or weakening.
So, now what? I think all bets are off, it could make it to a weak catagory one, but more likely to make it up to about 60 MPH before landfall, simply because it won't have the organization to take advantage of the time it will have. 36 hours maybe till landfall as it's heading north at a steady clip. But even so, it'll be a rain even to florida and hopefully put a damper on the fires that have been burning in south georgia.
Hopefully we'll have another similar storm in a couple of weeks to really kick the drought out for a while.
But take the rain while we can. and that's all this should be.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 08:38 PM |
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Re: now Barry on the Navy site
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It's official.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT2+shtml/012036.shtml
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 08:39 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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NRL now shows Barry at 45 mph and 1000 mb
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 08:45 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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>>and it's still a marginal call, with the very lopsided convection and exposed LLC.
But lopsided convection is often the hallmark of June systems. They butt up against shear simply based on weather patterns. They're going to be lopsided. June and late October through November are often transitional months. It's just the nature of the beast at that time. You know the old saying that if it walks like a duck...
Steve
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 08:53 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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The posting is becoming a bit silly in this Thread. The only topic that should be in the Thread is about the active (Atlantic) system. There is no need to post a copy of every advisory, etc. All that info is on the Main Page. Copy some of the info to support a post you are making if you wish.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 08:53 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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based on the last few vis scans on sat, there appears that the center is trying to tuck underneath some new storms that a flaring on the west to northwest side. question is, will the shear blow off the tops when the storms get growing... i think so....
Agree that the overall movement has been the same for a couple of hours now...
This just came out for the keys, thought it was interesting..
AT 431 PM EDT...RADAR DETECTED A WATERSPOUT 8 MILES SOUTH OF LONG...
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 08:59 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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wel, i guess it doesn't get this close... almost a sub-tropical storm, but thanks to the recent storms flaring... they went ahead and upgraded.
INITIALLY...THE SYSTEM APPEARED TO
BE A SUBTROPICAL STORM. HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST HOUR AND THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER...SUPPORTING A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION.
BARRY COULD RETAIN SOME NON-TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 09:36 PM |
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New Vortex....
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Pressure down to 998, FL winds (in the West Quad!) to 67kts.
URNT12 KNHC 012116
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 01/21:00:20Z
B. 24 deg 13 min N
085 deg 30 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 50 kt
E. 290 deg 016 nm
F. 351 deg 067 kt
G. 256 deg 004 nm
H. EXTRAP 998 mb
I. 21 C/ 274 m
J. 22 C/ 466 m
K. / C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF307 01BBA INVEST OB 14
MAX FL WIND 67 KT W QUAD 20:58:50 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 09:57 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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I am not completely convinced that what we are seeing out there is a pure tropical system.
Be that as it may...this was the one aspect we discussed yesterday and the day before, which could cause better development; we have seen that come to pass. The system begin a concerted NNE motion in such a way as to lower the impact of the westerly shear upon its vertical motion field (embedded convection). Shear is present however, despite this storm relative shear related reduction and that is why we see the majority of the convection displaced(ing) NE of the center -- it is being tipped and pulled NE of the center.
Note: The 12z ECM depicted tightly bounded cyclone nearing the bend area of the Gulf Coast of Florida. This was a new idea along the modeling history for this system, as most models maintained an amorpous broad bag of closed pressure pattern with more than one sub-vortices contained; then consolidating later on into an East Coast system. That latter behavior is in tact as expecation still goes, but, this subtle suggestion prior to Gulf Coastal landfall, by the ECM, just got a confidence boost for seeing this surprise jump to TS status. As long as the system keeps moving along with the deeper layer westerlies the way it is, it has a chance -- albeit lower rather than higher -- at developing a bit more.
It is important to note that 67kt at flight level extrapolates (usually) to around 50mph at the surface, which is just getting interesting as far as being more than just a breezy day.
-- Flood preparedness
-- Tornado awareness
-- Basic essentials for power failure
are the big three for Barry. Other than some beach erosion, surge will fairly low impact. Wind will be gusty near the core and where heavier convective elements transfer some of that flight level momentum into the boundary layer. Otherwise, not a very big concern there either.
Barry will be interesting once it crosses Florida and interact with the dynamics of a trough amplification. It should be well involved with cyclone phase transition at that time.
John
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 10:07 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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Quote:
-- Flood preparedness
-- Tornado awareness
-- Basic essentials for power failure
are the big three for Barry.
After Charley, any tropical cyclone coming from the southwest is, as far as I am concerned, a serious potential tornado risk. If tornadoes happen again this time it will be the third time in less than six months that Volusia county will have been hit by tornadic activity. If the NHC track is correct, this would place us on the front-right quadrant of Barry - so we should be very careful indeed.
Good luck everybody!
VS
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 10:09 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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There is a new Main Page (Thread ) started. Go there.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 10:12 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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Through the evening, I will be curious to see if this is one of those "Thunderstorm chaser" Systems that we have seen a couple of in recent years over 'round this side of the Gulf. Perfect examples being Earl in '98 and Gabriele in '01. These storms get an established center, the thunderstorms shear off to the NE and a new, slightly stronger center reforms to theNortheast under the thunderstorms time and time again until landfall or system decay. This may be a classic candidate for that now,and if it does so, I'd expect a landfall around Tampa or a bit further south as a moderate tropical storm, but nothing more. Either way, I wouldn't expect anything too strong along the western coast and we are gonna get some much welcome rain! Too funny! I wrote this thing off last night. That tasty crow is mighty delicious! LOL :-)
| CoconutCandy |
| (User) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 10:44 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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Well, Shiver me timbers!
Barry made the tropical transition that almost everyone *did not* think would happen, even myself.
I was looking at the very first visible pics and mentioned here that it was looking alot like a sub-tropical system, at best. And there wasn't much in the way of deep convection near the center.
But, alas! The deep convection finally did flare up and with each passing visible pic to add to the loop, it became apparent that tropical cyclogenesis was unfolding before our eyes!
I, too, eat crow. It just goes to show, folks, that with all our computer models, all the advanced analysis tools and the elaborate, 'high-brow' postings from our many very knowledgable members to this forum, that good 'ol Mother Nature has the final say and, often, she throws a curve ball just when we were expecting the slider.
But keep it up! There have been many very insightful and educational postings. Great forum. Learning tons! Thank you all.
- Previous Coconut Grove Resident
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Fri Jun 01 2007 10:48 PM |
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Re: 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins Today
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This Thread is done. There is a new Thread, go to the Main Page.