MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Jun 27 2007 09:42 PM |
Wave Near Florida
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There is a Tropical Wave, associated with an upper level trough, to the east of Florida over the Bahamas. It's expected to bring rain, but nothing indicative of sure fire development beyond that yet.
Some models earlier were suggesting development of this system, but have not really persisted it much. It's worth watching being as close as it is, but most likely it will be nothing more than a rain enhancing event for the late week and weekend over South Florida.
If the system were to slow, drift north or away, and persist in the convection, then it becomes more interesting. However, negative factors are the upper atmosphere isn't too great for it now, and an upper low to the west make take some energy away from this system. Convection is good, but not exactly organized.
Chances for Tropical Development of Bahamas wave.
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[--*-----------------]
{{StormLinks|95L|95|3|2007|3|95L (New System links may not yet be updated)}}
Radar Loops
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami, FL}}
{{radarlink|tbw|Tampa Bay/Ruskin, FL}}
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne, FL}}
{{radarlink|ax|Jaxsonville, FL}}
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 28 2007 05:39 AM |
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Re: Wave Near Florida
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This is looking more and more to me that it does have the potential to become rather depression-ish, and possibly slide on into the southern half of Florida as a bona fide feature of some sort, perhaps even a bit more tropical than not, by the end of the weekend. Model run to run consistency among a few in the group do also promote this view. I am not entirely certain that such a feature would actually follow the general N/NNE/NE route, however. One could argue that the steering pattern may want to drift this hypothetical Invest more NW, as long as it develops at least a little bit within the next 24 hours, or so. I would try to elaborate more and be more explanatory, but going on week two of a major rain event in Texas... leaves me just a little brain dead tonight. Hopefully some others who may share a similar opinion, or who perceive a similar possible scenario, will go a little deeper.. as I notice that I'm the first comment on the thread so far.
| ChessieStorm |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jun 28 2007 07:36 AM |
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Re: Wave Near Florida
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Tampa NWS is saying that these two features (ULL and surface trough) move through and then stall on Friday before moving east again out into the Atlantic.
Hazardous Weather Discussion: THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE REGION FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING BACK TO THE EAST SATURDAY AGAIN GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD MOVE BACK OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK BRINGING A RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SEA BREEZE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. GUSTY WINDS...DEADLY LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS
WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
553 AM EDT THU JUN 28 2007
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jun 28 2007 10:44 AM |
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Getting hard to ignore
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Thanks for that info from tampa.. so they are saying this might retrograde back so to speak across south Florida? This is getting hard to ignore from satellite imagery this morning
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
I mean really would like some updated info and wondering what the nhc will say soon at 11
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Jun 28 2007 11:29 AM |
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Re: Getting hard to ignore
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11:30 is out http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/281507.shtml.
Looks too me too close to land for any significant development. Maybe if it gets into the Gulf,
there's a chance.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jun 28 2007 11:50 AM |
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Re: Getting hard to ignore
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Just glancing at the Invest wanna-be and its environment here around the noon hour.. and I'm not really impressed. Pressures are still a bit on the high side, and upper level winds are still kind of detrimental. Should those upper level winds relax a bit more for a respectable length of time - which is possible - I suspect it may have some small window to pull something off. Either way, with the potential for a lot of extra showery/squally weather no matter what happens, I bet it may "feel" depression-ish at times, even if it doesn't become a closed-off surface low with tropical connections.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jun 28 2007 11:50 AM |
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Re: Getting hard to ignore
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I don't know ED... sort of a small watt green light if you ask me from nhc
"ORGANIZATION AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE. THEREFORE DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. "
marginally and therefore qualify a lot but does leave the door open to possible development
watching
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Jun 28 2007 12:53 PM |
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Re: Wave Near Florida
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East winds in ,miami.lake worth,stuart, up the coast and in west end grand bahama. Here in stuart it started out out light steady rainaround 9:00 am then started heavy downpouring around 10:15 and continued with a lighting storm about 11:00 now its 12:50 and is still downpouring my backyard is flooded the streets are flooded visibility is 200 feet at best when driving your car. It definnetly feals depreshinish though. except the clouds just arent moving like they would with a closed low near by.
| ChessieStorm |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Jun 28 2007 01:56 PM |
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Re: Getting hard to ignore
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According to the 1 pm Forecast Discussion, the Tampa Mets are forecast this wave to come through and then get caught up in a frontal boundary coming down.
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SATURDAY)...UNLIKE YESTERDAY MODELS THIS AFTERNOON
ARE NOW IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE HANDLING OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
SO WILL USE A BLEND DURING THIS TIME FRAME. BLEND OF NAM/GFS TAKES THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN IT GETS
ABSORBED AND PULLED NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE (PW`S > 2") AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY COMBINED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL SUPPORT HIGH RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT (POPS 30-40% RANGE TONIGHT AND 60-70% ON FRIDAY) AND
FRIDAY. IN ADDITION SLOW MOVING STORMS MAY SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS
| nc_tropical_wx79 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jun 28 2007 10:45 PM |
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Re: Getting hard to ignore
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The Tropical Wave that is currently bringing weather to FL is finding Upper level conditions remain unfavorable for further development as of right now (around/near FL). A ridge of high pressure developing to the north of the area will keep this tropical wave moving west into the E. GOM. This wave may find more favorable upper level conditions over the central GOM tomorrow and as time goes on.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Jun 29 2007 12:41 AM |
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Weather Discussions-excerpts
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I apologize for the length of this post. These excerpts appear to cover both the short term and extended forecasts.
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
302 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007
VALID 00Z FRI JUN 29 2007 - 12Z SAT JUN 30 2007
...TO THE SOUTH... A COLD LOW INTERACTING WITH THE NORTHERN END OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL INITIALLY DRIFT WEST AND THEN LINGER ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN INCREDIBLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
FLOW COUPLED WITH ENHANCED INSTABILITY RELATED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD TRIGGER MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.... WITH THE HEAVIEST LIKELY FALLING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTH BY EARLY SATURDAY.
Short Term Forecasts
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
605 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID JUN 29/0000 UTC THRU JUL 02/0000 UTC
DAY 1 (SATURDAY)
...FL...
EASTERLY WAVE MOVING THRU FL HAS USHERED IN A VERY MOIST/TROPICAL AIRMASS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RW/TRW (SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS) THRU THE PERIOD. PWS (PRECIPTABLE WATER~available moisture) OVER THE REGION ARE INCREASING TO GREATER THAN TWO INCHES WITH DEEP LAYERED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT
SHOULD TEND TO FOCUS THE BETTER LIFT ALONG THE (FLORIDA) EAST COAST. MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AN 8H (850mb height-5000ft-mid level)LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL FL. IF THIS OCCURS THE LO LEVEL CONVERGANCE WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE ALONG THE EAST COAST WHERE CONVERGANCE WILL BE STRONGEST. LOCALLY 2-3 INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE.
DAY 2 (SUNDAY)
FL...
THE NAM APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH ITS VERY SLOW NORTHWARD MOVEMENT TO THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS... CMC... GEM... UKMET AND 0000 UTC ECMWF ALL FAVOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE NEWD MOVEMENT TO ANY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL
LIKELY BE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THIS SYSTEM... MOSTLY OFF THE NORTHERN FL COAST. THERE MAY...HOWEVER...BE SOME PRECIPITATION OVR NORTHEASTERN FL... WITH THE HEAVIER GFS FAVORED AS THE SLOWER NAM DOES NOT SHOW
ANY PRECIPITATION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN FL.
Quantitative Precipitation Forecast Discussion
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
237 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2007
DISCUSSION FROM JUN 28/0000 UTC. THE ANALYSIS OF THE 200 HPA (upper level) VELOCITY POTENTIAL ANOMALIES SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF DIVERGENCE ACROSS INDIA/ SOUTHEAST ASIA... WHICH WE EXPECT TO RELOCATE ACROSS THE TROPICAL PACIFIC TO CENTRAL AMERICA/ CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE NEXT SEVEN TO TEN DAYS. ONCE IN-PLACE...THIS IS TO REMAIN OVER THE BASIN FOR 14-21 DAYS. THE UPPER CONVERGENT PATTERN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/ EASTERN PACIFIC CONTINUES TO ERODE...AND WE EXPECT BETTER CONDITIONS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP INTO THE WEEKEND.
Caribbean Forecast Discussion
| PCEOC |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Jun 29 2007 09:06 AM |
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Re: Weather Discussions-excerpts
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The Navy has the blob off of florida listed as 95L
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Jun 29 2007 10:26 AM |
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Re: Weather Discussions-excerpts
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http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?
0945 AM EDT FRI 29 JUN 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 30/1100Z JUNE TO 01/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-037 AMENDMENT
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 29.0N 79.0W AT 01/1800Z.....ADDED
There still isn't much meat to this now official Invest. Pressures are generally on the high side, upper-level winds are detrimental, and while the low is now possibly centered at the base of a surface trough which runs through -land- Florida, itself, most of the weather is occurring over the Bahamas and generally east of south Florida. There is quite the - disconnect - with this feature.
Upper-level winds will have to relax still more, and either convection needs to co-locate with the low, or a new low needs to reform situated with the convection, for it to have a shot of anything more than a curiosity.
| Sheeper |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jun 29 2007 11:25 AM |
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Re: Wave Near Florida
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According to NOAA a Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forming up in the pacific. An MJO is a short-term reversal of trade winds in an area. This occurrence works its way around the globe on periodic time scales. Studies have shown that when this phenomenon reaches the East Pacific that it can enhance tropical cyclone formation in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. The current Madden-Julian Oscillation should be reaching the eastern Pacific around the middle of July. So any changes in upper-level wind patterns at that time that would allow for a better chance of tropical storm development. Those tropical waves can have a better chance of development as we move into mid and late July.
| nc_tropical_wx79 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jun 29 2007 02:16 PM |
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Re: Wave Near Florida
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It's being reported on Fox News that the cold front thats suppose to sweep 95L out to sea has stalled any truth to this or has it temporarily stalled but will get moving again?
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jun 29 2007 04:20 PM |
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did the front stall?
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id like to hear more on that
2 things hit me
1... is there or isnt there a low center? was there really one in the keys or is it further north? or is there just a general broad area of low pressure
2.. other than that diving, wild ull in the eastern gulf... and a cold front that may or may not have stalled i get the feeling that steering currents might collapse. are the steering currents weak or pretty definitive?
if so... this will sit a bit and its weak chances for development could go up
i still say it's proximity to florida is a big problem despite the shear from the ull to its west
did the front stall or not?
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri Jun 29 2007 07:26 PM |
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Re: did the front stall?
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The front did indeed stall, but thats to be expected at this time of year. Its currently stationary in Texas - Oklahoma and northeastward, so no impact on the weak system over south Florida. Still a moderate jet streak across the peninsula into the Bahamas moving most of the convection well east of the low. Bulk of the convection remains offshore to the east of Florida. Lower level steering currents are weak - from the south and southeast.
ED
| nc_tropical_wx79 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jun 29 2007 10:56 PM |
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Re: did the front stall?
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NWS has the low moving North and also said it's starting to fill so does this mean rain/thunderstorms are starting to build (gaining convection)? And where is the low as of right now?
| Ricreig |
| (User) |
| Sat Jun 30 2007 02:15 AM |
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Re: did the front stall?
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Quote:I bring your attention to http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/GULF_latest.gif This shows the current and projected position of the low. When they say a low is 'filling', they mean it is becoming weaker. The thunderstorms associated with this low are much weaker than they were and it is likely that this will become a non-issue in the near future. Until it *is* gone, it is prudent to continue to watch it simply due to its location, but it is not likely to develop into anything. Additionally, as long as the Low is over land, the engine cannot start. The worst that can happen is an enhancement of normal summertime daily showers but even this seems to be fading. For now, watch but don't expect anything.
NWS has the low moving North and also said it's starting to fill so does this mean rain/thunderstorms are starting to build (gaining convection)? And where is the low as of right now?
The above URL is time sensitive and updated regularly so if you look at it more than a few hours after the time this was originally posted, you will note the low is no longer even depicted and as of this morning, only the original weak tropical wave remains off the SW Fl. coast, and it isn't likely to do much due to proximity to land.
| weather_wise911 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jun 30 2007 09:45 AM |
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Re: did the front stall?
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Quote:
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
Still using the term "elsewhere..."
Perhaps the NHC isn't ready to let go???
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jun 30 2007 11:22 AM |
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Re: did the front stall?
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Quote:
Still using the term "elsewhere..."
Perhaps the NHC isn't ready to let go???
They mean elsewhere as in "in other areas" not as in "we think this will develop." Don't read more into what they're saying than what they are actually saying. They could just as easily say, "...And in other areas besides this one we just discussed..."
It's just semantics. They're not implying they think this will develop. They're just stating what the likelihood is in other areas outside of this area of discussion.
| weather_wise911 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jun 30 2007 03:34 PM |
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Re: did the front stall?
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I was just saying that although the likelihood is extremely slim... the term elsewhere implies that the possibility does exist for the area mentioned.
I was not implying that the system would develop.... not at all!
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sat Jun 30 2007 04:15 PM |
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mjo time?
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some of y'all have posted excerpts from forecasts indicating that the overall pattern might soon shift over to active with an eastward moving mjo wave. all i can say is that some of the signals i usually look for to expect things to happen are there... the soi index in the pacific has tipped strongly negative, which is usually associated with strong retrogressive motion in the tropical pacific. the pacific has been really quiet lately... i.e. they didn't get a named storm to form this june anywhere in the pacific ocean. when the bay of bengal and arabian sea are setting the pace for global tropical cyclone activity you know things are in weirdsville. from the looks of things the kind of synoptic scale anomalies that favor tropical cyclones coughing up are about to come together and possibly make july twitch to life.
the good news about july is that tropical systems usually don't have the intensity they tend to accumulate later in the season.. the downside would be that they tend to be slow and rainy. most places in the southeast could use a good drenching (with emphasis on the d4 drought in north alabama), but over in, say, the texas hill country or the edge of the prairies out there, a tropical storm is not in order.
for now the models aren't really showing much of anything. that won't mean a whole lot when/if mjo starts up.
HF 2015z30june
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Jul 01 2007 01:03 PM |
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Re: mjo time?
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Doesn't look like it's going anywhere other than NE, but the FL wave
seems to have some more life today.
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Sun Jul 01 2007 09:48 PM |
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Re: did the front stall?
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"the term elsewhere implies that the possibility does exist for the area mentioned."
I've mentioned this before, but ... one more time. The word 'elsewhere' does NOT imply any possibility for the area mentioned. It is a phrase that is always used by NHC whenever they have commented on some feature in the basin. It simply means that 'elsewhere' in the basin there is nothing worthy of comment. Because of the potential for confusion, some forecasters at NHC no longer use the term - see the latest TWO by Brown.
ED