Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Thu Jul 19 2007 10:27 PM |
Things to Watch
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Update Friday 7/27... things are starting to perk up in the Eastern Atlantic with a well-defined tropical wave exiting the coast of Africa this evening. Model guidance suggests that the tropical Atlantic will become increasingly active as the upcoming week wears on.
Clark has posted a new blog on these developments and the tropical forecasting process; see it below on the main page or in the Blogs.
Update Sunday 7/23... Invest 97L has been issued but I think it's future is a non-event for most. Maybe a start for a so far slow season...
Original Post... Most of the Atlantic basin still remains quiet, however, a large but disorganized tropical wave has slowly increased in convective activity over the past couple of days in the eastern Caribbean Sea. Earlier today (19/20Z) a weak - and probably transient - mid-level circulation center was evident near 12N 66W. Movement to the west northwest at 10-12 knots - and that general movement is expected to continue for the next few days.
The wave, currently under light shear, will encounter some moderate westerly shear for the next day or two, so I wouldn't expect any significant near-term development. Over the weekend, as the system moves away from the shear zone, the wave has a better chance for some organization. SSTs in the central Caribbean Sea are about 28C. Something to watch over the next few days.
In the Central Pacific, Tropical Depression Cosme may well regain Tropical Storm intensity and pass just south of the main Hawaiian Islands on Saturday. You can follow CoconutCandy's excellent commentary on this system in the Other Storm Basins Forum.
Finally, a reminder that discussions based on long-range model projections belong in the Forecast Lounge rather than the Main Page thread.
ED
{{StormLinks|98L|98|3|2007|3|98L (New System links may not yet be updated)}}
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 19 2007 11:43 PM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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So you are watching the system in the Atlantic not in the Carib. Is that how I understand it?
What do you think Ed about the models predicting development and a landfalling tropical system in the New England area down the road?
Was curious to your thoughts and others.
Thank you Ed, Bobbi
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Ed Dunham
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| (Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)) |
| Fri Jul 20 2007 12:50 AM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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No, I'm watching the system in the Caribbean Sea. Since they are seldom correct, I don't bother with model outputs - and, as stated above, that topic belongs in the Forecast Lounge. Finally, and this is good advice for everyone, whenever you make a personal inquiry of someone, please use the PM capability.
Thanks,
ED
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Jul 20 2007 12:57 AM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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The winds at the San Juan NWS radar have begun to back over the last hour. From SSE to NNE at 0044Z.
This may or may not be indicative of the outer edges of the wave reaching the radar site. Wind speeds are up to 10knots at the 3000ft level. ( The radar site is located in mountainous terrain.)
Just something to watch...
San Juan NWS VAD Winds
Satellite imagery indicates the center of the wave is located SSE of St Croix, USVI. Using cirrus directional changes and lightning data in the NE through SSE areas of the wave. Appears to be moving NW at 10-15 knots. The system is very large. Covering the area from 60-70W.
GOES Puerto Rico RGB for Lightning Observation
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jul 20 2007 01:22 AM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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Ed and gang,
My feeling is that an Invest should be scheduled sooner rather than later for the TW that is flaring moderate to heavy convection in the NE Caribbean.
Currently, the looping IR with deep layer wind composite layering shows a strong divergent vector field in the 200mb level, expanding, and situated nearly colocated with densest masses of convection. It is likely this is instrumental in giving additional lift and continued propagation of intense shower activity.
I am having trouble finding wind and pressure obs from that part of the Atlantic Basin that are up to the hour, but TPC reports that upwards of 3mb falls have occurred in the last 24 hours, as well as winds veering south over the Leeward Islands; and all this, prior to this evening's preceived intensification of convection. With difluence so strong and on-going deep tropospheric convection intensified [perhaps in nocturnal cyclic forcing], I would not be surprised if surface convegence were getting better defined.
I believe it is worth it, in part, because the Canadian CMC had a rather intense system for several runs [its TC bias aside] and now we have a feature entering that same domain in an atmosphere increasingly more conducive to development. Granted, the 12z had back off a bitl; however, the 12z UKMET hints that it was sniffing something out, as did the GFS, both showing pressure perturbations riding up the eastern flanks of the EC shear axis in the mid level westerlies in roughly concerted timing with the CMC. The 18z GFS continued along this track with a subtle but yet clear pressure perturbation getting pulled north off the East Coast. And, it should be noted that the Global-based models will typically perform poorly until a tropical feature is better developed and in the sounding array at times of model initialization
Point being, given that there was a presence in the models at all, combined with observations this evening, I think it should peg for the GFDL and let her rip.
[Edit: I found this site and it is great! http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.html ]
John
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jul 20 2007 01:27 AM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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Dan,
This is a nice site that I just found:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/caribm.html
...It was a few links down on the googling, which is why I missed it when I was looking earlier; not that you asked of course. Anyway, it may provide some key wind/pressure points as eval on this system is on-going...
[Edit: Interestingly...I am not finding the 2-3mb of pressure falls as TPC discussed; the winds in the northern Leewards are veered all the way around to the SW however]
John
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 20 2007 02:40 AM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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Size of it is pretty interesting especially as it has held together it's shape for most of the day.
If there is a center time will tell but with models predicting development (on several runs) it's definitely worth watching carefully for any signs of investigation.
If they didn't think so they wouldn't have put it in the TWO
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jul 20 2007 03:19 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Things to Watch
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Some annotations of interest... See attachment
These TUTTs and their associated trough axis will continue to provide an exhaust enhancement aloft. Currently, they are moving W slowly, concertedly with this wave/package of convection. This, overall, should provide continued favorability for growth in this region, when considering the strong divergence, on-going, aloft.
John
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Jul 20 2007 02:16 PM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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Quote:
Ed and gang,
My feeling is that an Invest should be scheduled sooner rather than later for the TW that is flaring moderate to heavy convection in the NE Caribbean.
Your suggestion taken to heart....
Invest considered.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 20 2007 02:22 PM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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sometimes when a wave splits the system is finally able to get it's act together.. wave seems to have split like the canadian showed and will have to watch it now to see if it will spin or fall apart..
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jul 20 2007 07:54 PM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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Quote:Quote:
Ed and gang,
My feeling is that an Invest should be scheduled sooner rather than later for the TW that is flaring moderate to heavy convection in the NE Caribbean.
Your suggestion taken to heart....
Invest considered.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?
When my original posting was done there had just recently been a TPC statement released regarding southerly winds along the lower Leewards; suggesting at least a weakly closed surface circulation was evolving in the vicinity of the NE Caribbean. That, combined with the transiently impressive satellite presentation, and some favorable U/A conditions, is what prompted that optimism.
However, soon after making that post, I did my own analysis of the NE Caribbean and despite the TPC statement, I could not close off a circulation.
Lesson learned: Do own analysis first...so as not to be beguiled by other sources, because you take risk of drawing a false conclusion. [I think this was just a bad luck of sorts, though]
The problem is, you really have to close off a circulation of some kind before an Invest run can be made. The wind and pressure pattern may have hinted earlier in the evening, but by later on it was pretty non-descript and disorganized in that area.
Now, ...now that this wave splitting has taken place, we are in a new paradigm of sorts. What ever happens from here on out should be taken as analysis, anew. Whatever is left of the TW ...it is moving away from the upper level anticyclone and into a bit of WSW shear/jet channeling on the south side of the TUTT axis. This is not optimal for development -- although as noted by TPC, conditions could improve in a day or so. Not seeing an Invest out of this for the time being, though.
We'll see... otherwise, back to watching.
| weather_wise911 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 21 2007 02:23 AM |
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Little Short Term Progress
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As far as any short-term organization/development... I wouldn't get my hopes up. Now, looking into early next week, conditions should become more favorable for some organization. However, this system lacks any support from forecast models. Personally... I'll give it a 15% chance for development.
Take care...
WW-911
| weatherguy08 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Jul 21 2007 03:43 PM |
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NHC Getting Hope
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It seems that as of the 10:30 AM CDT TWO, the National Hurricane Center is giving the area of disturbed weather north of Hispaniola a little more hope:
Quote:
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
FAVORABLE...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA OVER THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.
(Off-topic material was removed. As stated in the leadoff article for this thread, forecasts for system development based on model projections do not belong on the Main Page - they belong in the Forecast Lounge.)
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 21 2007 05:51 PM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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Two flights have been tentatively been scheduled http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?
1. SUSPECT AREA.
FLIGHT ONE
A. 22/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 22/1300Z
D. 32.0N 64.0W
FLIGHT TWO
A. 23/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0203A CYCLONE
C. 23/0100Z
D. 35.0N 64.5W
IMHO, as of this morning there is almost -nothing- there. Looking at 32N 64W the ULL in the region is still far too intense to allow anything at the surface to get going at those coordinates(LINK) . Also, surface pressures there are running a bit high. Additionally, the best low level convergence (LINK) , and indeed even the most impressive 850 mb vorticity -by far- has actually been centered well to the south of there for some time (LINK) .
For this "invest" to come together at that predetermined location by this time Sunday, I suspect that the ULL would need to really pull out of the way and/or weaken a good bit more. Neither appears to be happening at this time. For now, my attention remains focused -just barely- on or about 25N 64W.
Perhaps for a long-shot Invest, 13N 78W. Weak low to mid level cyclonic turning now evident in an already low shear and moist environment. Would probably still run into central America and/or cross in to the east Pac, regardless.
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Jul 21 2007 09:04 PM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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I see no worries with this system as the approaching cold front should keep it out to sea.
With the ULL still in place provide shear development looks unlikely in this area. Here you can see the convection with the cold-front the will sweep this mess out to sea.
Note:Recon will likely not fly out to investigate the area.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Jul 22 2007 10:32 PM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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Just as a heads-up, following off of Ed's comment about SSTs in the basin, I've posted a new blog entry about the upcoming Cape Verde season. It's available just below the main article on the main page or directly by clicking here.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Jul 22 2007 11:28 PM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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97L has been added.
Convection has been rather persistent, but any hint at a lower level cyclonic circulation might be a bit weak and fleeting just yet. Outflow has been reasonable, with the NE, E & SE sections all exhibiting decent outflow. The surface trof itself remains rather pronounced, and runs from roughly just NNE of Bermuda southwest for "several hundred miles," as mentioned in a few earlier TWOs & TWDs. Shear is high just to its east, but rather low to moderate now right on top of much of it (LINK). SSTs are just about marginal, and drop below 26 c very soon along its track to the north, however (LINK).
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 25 2007 01:12 PM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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Does anyone have an opinion on what is going on in the BOC this morning? I haven't been able to check anything out so was wondering what is causing that big blob down there. All I know is from the weather report I saw on our local news this morning they are expecting quite a bit of rain here through the weekend. Are there any models picking up on something trying to form out in the gulf?
Shawn
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 25 2007 01:50 PM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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Saw this article on Yahoo this AM, thought it would be of interest.
http://www.yahoo.com/s/636164
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 25 2007 05:29 PM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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12z GFS and CMC showing signs of the cape verde season taking off?
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Jul 25 2007 05:38 PM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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I saw that too. The GFS doesn't move it or develop it as quickly as the CMC.
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 25 2007 05:48 PM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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Quote:
I saw that too. The GFS doesn't move it or develop it as quickly as the CMC.
12z GFS actually has a system for the first time making it all the way towards the eastcoast and also has development of the african coast behind it.
Big change in my opinion.
GFS 10m wind at 300 hours
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Jul 25 2007 06:43 PM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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Looks like there is some rotation of the clouds in the southern most part of the BOC. Can someone tell me if this is true and if it's at the mid-levels or surface?
Shawn
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Jul 25 2007 09:13 PM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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based on just a quick glance... doesn't look like anything mixed down to the surface, yet. Although i just glanced at the NAM 18Z.... wants to pop something out of that area (a weak closed low) and send it up towards Houston... Just look like a bunch of tropical mositure heading north into TX's region.... Seems to be the only model doing this at this time.... Just took a quick look at NDBC in the GOM...sea level pressures seem still high. The ridge seems to be pretty strong and building in the GOM, atleast the eastern side.
1 km Vis - Floater
MSLP 1000 - 500mb 18 UTC NAM
| cchsweatherman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Jul 25 2007 09:49 PM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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That tropical wave in the CATL looks to be organizing right now on satellite. Invest 98L coming soon.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 26 2007 01:14 AM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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Time to chime in on the Gulf of Mexico from my end...I agree with Daniel, there is no evidence of a surface feature mixing down at this point with the weather north of the BoC. Evidence of that can be seen in our last remaining visible shots of the day( http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html ), as well as the Shortwave imagery ( http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html ). The low level cloud features on the south side of the system contintine to plodalong to the west. Albeit,they may be doing that less and less with time.
To that end, this disturbed weather is at some level of interest to me. This morning, it could be noted that there may have been as many as two mid level vorticies in the BOC area. It can also be noted that there was a tropical wave passing, This evening, these disturbed areas have basically consolidated and there is an apparent level of turning in the mid levels. The mid level low is showing some evidence of looking like, walking like, and quacking like a duck at the mid levels, so something may have a chance toevolve at the surface.
Now for model support and unfavorable wind conditions. There is no model support for development, but there is modelsupport for moisturein Texas. If there is no development, Texas can expect to get wet again as the models dictate...and either way, Texas will get at least some moisture from this. However, the mid-level circulation is already showing signs of moving more to the NNE. If...and I say if...development does occur, the mid level and upper level flow would apparently favor this entity heading more towards the Noth Central or North Eastern Gulf. And shear would not be as much of a factor as a developed system would get caught in the overall flow. Shear IS a consideration in the NHC TWO because the computer models foresee the system remaining weak (not develop) and heading more to the North and North West in line with the computer models. If that does occur (which it currently appears thatitmaynot be doing that), then shear will be a factor and it will never get it's act together.
If the thunderstorms persist and the midlevel can transition toward the surface during the day tomorrow, then we may have something to watch. We shall see....
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Thu Jul 26 2007 01:40 AM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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Thanks dem05! Going back a bit let's be aware of the big picture and that "one line" post's do not belong on the Main Page.... think about your post before you post!
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Jul 26 2007 04:18 AM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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something to watch in the GOM... but i don't see much happening, except for alot of moisture coming north... upper level winds are just not that favorable right now.... i just glanced at some of the 00z runs running and the GFS now is closing that wave off in the C.ATL by late this weekend.. (day 3-4)... the model is still running.... I am just not sure about this, because of the Dry air out there... and the Dust to the north.... it doesn't look like the wave/low would move that much... the wave is sitting on the ITCZ,
Western North Atlantic 00 UTC GFS 96hr
its not in what i think would be very favorable conditions... if it were more to the west.... maybe a better shot... well see how this looks tomorrow evening!
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Jul 26 2007 06:55 AM |
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Discussion Excerpts
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At this hour,2:55am EDT, I am not very impressed or alarmed with the GOM system. But I do see a GOM full of moisture... and that in itself is something to take note of.
The following are excerpts from the various Discussions from the HPC desks. The link provided for each discussions will take you to the latest discussions.
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
151 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2007
...ENERGY STREAMING ACROSS THE WRN/NRN GULF OF MEXICO...
EXCEPT FOR IMPULSES WHICH THE 00Z NAM STRENGTHENS NEAR THE LA COAST AROUND F36 EARLY FRI AND F72 LATE SAT... THIS RUN APPEARS TO BE WEAKER ON AVERAGE VERSUS PAST RUNS WITH ENERGY FLOWING NWD THRU THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. 00Z/18Z/12Z NAM RUNS ALL SHOW SIMILAR SFC REFLECTIONS THRU THE PERIOD AND ARE WEAKER AT THE SFC COMPARED TO YDAYS 00Z NAM. IN THE GFS... DETAILS DIFFER EACH RUN BUT THE MODEL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH KEEPING MID LVL IMPULSES QUITE WEAK WITH NO DISCERNIBLE SFC REFLECTION.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html
...YET ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY DURING
THE ENTIRE 48 HOUR PERIOD. AS RESULT... AREAS ALONG COASTAL TEXAS AND LOUISIANA WILL RECEIVE COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING OFF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdspd.html
DAY1
...ACROSS TX/GULF COAST REGION...
A TREMENDOUS PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO. THE BLOB OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SERN/SRN TX SHOULD BEGIN TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE SHIFTING THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OVERNIGHT TOWARD THE MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE RIO GRANDE. THE GFS
CONTINUES TO SHOW POSSIBLE FEEDBACK AND HPC BACKED OFF QPF AMOUNTS A BIT DUE TO THIS AND UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE HEAVIEST QPF AXIS WILL ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP. NEEDLESS TO SAY... EXPECT HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS ACROSS THE SATURATED SOUTH TX REGION TO THE COAST.
...FL/SE COAST...
RATHER WIDESPREAD CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP OVER GIVEN DIURNALHEAT... PW VALUES RIGHT AROUND 2 INCHES AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THE NATURE OF PCPN IN CONVECTION...WOULD
EXPECT SOME 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH AMOUNTS ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS AND GIVEN K INDICES AROUND 30.
DAY 2-Friday
TEXAS/WESTERN GULF COAST/DEEP SOUTH...
THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND A PAIR OF TROPICAL WAVES/DISTURBANCES CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD KEEP THE REGION MOIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE DETAILS CONCERNING DAY 3 REMAIN SKETCHY...THE FIRST DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL TEAM UP WITH THE NEARBY UPPER CYCLONE TO
LEAD TO ORGANIZED RAINS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AROUND HOUSTON FROM THIS SYSTEM DURING THE DAY 2 TIME FRAME /LATE THURSDAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY/. THEREAFTER...THE
PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVES EASTWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN GULF COAST INTO THE DEEP SOUTH ALLOWING FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS THERE.
FLORIDA...
MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS NEAR OR ABOVE TWO INCHES.
THIS CALLS FOR AREAL AVERAGE AMOUNTS NEAR AN INCH ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 3-4 INCHES POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS
REMAIN STATIONARY. NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT SUGGESTS THAT STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEK. SPC SUGGESTS STORMS SHOULD NOT REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Jul 26 2007 01:33 PM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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There may not be an organizing tropical system in the gulf but there has been a nice blow up of storms out there this morning. I know they are predicting us here in the Houston area to get quite a bit of rain out of this. I can see why looking at that mess out there.
Shawn
| BLTizzle |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Jul 26 2007 06:08 PM |
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Re: Things to Watch
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The 12Z CMC run has much to look at. It calls for MAYBE a depression forming in the gulf with the current wave that is there. It also has a depression/low/storm forming off the African coast, and it has the wave over the Bahamas interacting with a ULL that is over Minnesota right now and becoming something going up the east coast. Think we're about to get going?
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Fri Jul 27 2007 04:23 AM |
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Wave at 10n 45w
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Wave along 45 west seems to be gaining some convection models not showing much. It seems to have a low level curculation with it.
Some backing also from the nhc
000
AXNT20 KNHC 262331
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2007
TROPICAL WAVE TILTED ALONG 5N45W 10N45W 15N42W MOVING W 10 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A SMALL-SCALE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 10N45W AND THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A WESTERLY WIND OF 15
KT FROM SHIP A8IY6 AT 18Z JUST S OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 44W-49W
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 27 2007 01:55 PM |
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Re: Wave at 10n 45w
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That wave has hung in there tenaciously. It flares up, it quiets down, it flares up and it's still moving west. IF conditions were even a little bit favorable it would be something to watch more carefully. But, still worth watching.
| ElizabethH |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Jul 27 2007 02:05 PM |
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Re: Wave at 10n 45w
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Models aren't picking up on that wave out in the middle of the Atlantic, but I think it's the most interesting thing out there right now. It might be trying to circulate at the surface. There is a little bit of shear out there hindering it from developing more, but the shear has weakened just a bit in the last couple of frames. I'll watch this more closely than the wave out in the eastern Atlantic.
CMC and GFS both pick up on a developing a closed LLC by the end of this weekend. Surprise Suprise the CMC is more aggressive on their 0z run...we'll see.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Jul 27 2007 04:36 PM |
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One more thing...
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Looking at this WV loop:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
It looks like there is a front pushing down into TX/LA.
Will this promote a chance that the disturbance in the GOM could be pushed back into the Gulf and then East?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Jul 27 2007 09:39 PM |
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Re: One more thing...
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Well.... been looking at Euro sats today... there is a good amount of Dust out there crossing the atl. The models are getting a little more bullish on trying to develope something... the current wave exiting the coast of Africa, i think is the strongest one so far this season. But like others so far, will it filter out? The water temps are not that warm in that region yet and to the north that ridge is strong and coupled along with the area of low pressure over northwestern Africa, i think are allowing the dust to be picked up and travel the atl to the carribean, almost identical to last year. This is common for this to happen. Just now how will the US weather pattern setup in the coming weeks?
I am somewhat more glued now to the C.Atl. region... there appears to be a nice little low trying to form... Low level swirl around 44w 12n ish.... There is some blow up convection tonight around that center....Will see if it can hold for the trip to the carribean....To the west and north of this low, alot of dry air!
Vis Shot
12z Surface (dated)
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Jul 28 2007 01:14 PM |
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Re: One more thing...
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NRL shows 98L up? Area in the Eastern Bahamas.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Jul 28 2007 03:58 PM |
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Re: One more thing...
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Re: 98L
There is an existing surface trof running N-S through the general area with a weak low center now where 98L has been initiated. A few models have teased with development in this area. The NAM, MM5, GFS & CMC all to greater or lesser degrees, and with greater or lesser consistency. This area is not hostile to development. While steering currents currently suggest a fish spinner if it develops any further, being so close to the states and various islands, imho subsequent model runs showing tracks out to sea should be viewed suspect until a clearer picture of the nature of the feature and its environment unfolds.
In other areas, at this time, a weak surface low has pushed inland into far eastern Texas//western Louisiana, so no further development there. However, an old frontal boundary remains draped across the northern GOM, just south of the southern states, and could linger and fester a bit, and perhaps tap into a sweet spot or two when conditions there become more favorable.
There is also a weak wave train rolling off of western Africa, and if you haven't yet done so, do check out the main page for Clark's ongoing analysis of the developments there.
Edit to add coordinates of tentative Invest flight plan:
TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JULY 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-066
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA NEAR BERMUDA.
A. 29/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 29/1730Z
D. 30N AND 71W
E. 29/1900Z TO 30/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: FIX MISSION NEAR 32N AND 69W
FOR 30/1200Z OR INVEST AT 30/1800Z.