MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 01 2007 10:26 PM |
Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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6PM 2 August Update
The two systems being watched today continue to be the wave in the eastern Caribbean Sea (99L), and the area in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico.
The area in the Gulf just hasn't organized much, and chances of anything happening there are still very low, but we're watching it.
99L Flared up quite a bit overnight , but has since died back down some, Recon made its way out there today and still found no low level circulation. However, this system's convection has been persisting quite well, and forecasted shear is expected to lighten up a bit in its path. '
As for the future path, A weaker system in the Caribbean tends to track further west, which would indicate more likely for a Central American, or Yucatan track. Most models are projecting it to continue moving that way, and I don't see anything to doubt that path currently.
Watch for another flare up overnight tonight, if this one sticks expect tropical development tomorrow, if it dies back down by noon tomorrow, it will hold off for a bit longer. If it continues to lose convection overnight, that along with the fast forward motion would keep it from developing and mainly make it a rain event.
Chances for Tropical Development of Wave in the Eastern Caribbean (99L)
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-------*------------]
Chances for Tropical Development of Gulf System
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[----*---------------]
Original Update
The month of August has begun, and now the areas to watch in the Atlantic have expanded greatly, and will do more so as the month goes on, in fact it's already active.
Tropical storm Chantal has gone Extratropical and is no longer being tracked as it races away.
The system in the East Caribbean (99L) had aircraft recon check it out today, and didn't find any low level circulation, but it still has a chance to develop over the next few days. It has persisted, but not strengthened. It's beginning to enter a more hostile area for development, but it remains worth watching for several days.
Another system in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico has some potential for slow development, and should be watched for the proximity to land. It will likely enhance rainfall over the area. Currently it's just a trough of low pressure and would slowly develop, watching for persistence is the key here as well. During the day today it hasn't held together well, but we will still be watching it. Recon is tentatively scheduled to fly out there tomorrow afternoon.
See Clark's Blog below for more details on this Gulf System.
More to come as needed...
Chances for Tropical Development of Wave East of the Caribbean (99L)
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[-----------*--------]
Chances for Tropical Development of Gulf System
Code:
(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[----*---------------]
{{StormLinks|99L|99|4|2007|2|99L (Area East of Caribbean)}}
{{StormCarib}}
Radar Loops
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami, FL}}
{{radarlink|tbw|Tampa Bay/Ruskin, FL}}
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne, FL}}
{{radarlink|tlh|Tallahassee, FL}}
{{radarlink|evx|Northwest, FL}}
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 01 2007 10:37 PM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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A few things on our erstwhile systems. 99L seems to be doing the convection pulse. it's a broad system and looks fairly skeletal, but convection appears to be back on the rise as night falls. The system is heading into the hurricane 'graveyard' so it may not take hold. However if it's classified tomorrow morning then I think it'll start the long trek and be around for a while. If it's not together by then, I doubt it will ever form into an organized system.
the GOM mess (blob) is interesting because the concentration of storms appears to be along the old frontal boundary with the NWS locating a low pressure center just on the tip of Louisiana. It certainly has a decent shot of getting together as the entire cluster of storms is going nowhere fast and appears to have a high pressure aloft to help organize the system rather quickly if conditions persist.
I think the odds 50/50 for each system. maybe better. They both look pretty durn healthy. (of course I still may be stuck in 2005 mode)
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 01 2007 11:13 PM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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I just don't see the GOM system getting its act together any time soon at all. 99L might stand a chance if it survives to enter the Western Caribbean, but I don't expect it to develop until then, if at all, based upon the current trend.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 02 2007 02:12 AM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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80% of wunderground bloggers have written off 99L.. but wait till it blows up later (if it does) lol. Only 20% give it a chance at developing. I'm still watching it, very closely because it really looks like it could blow tonight to probably about this mornings storm status. Still hard to tell where the circulation is if any, I give it a 50% for TD, I say recons a go in my opinion for tommorrow.. This reminds me of 90L from last year in August lol, big blow up, no closed circulation, same deal with this one, though I think it can make it. To tell you the truth, it did maintain at least some convection throught the day so it's not over yet, could get interesting in a few hours.
Oh and where's this 20-30 knots of shear that people are saying that is ripping the storm apart because in the map i'm looking at, there's only 5-10 knots of favorable shear.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 02 2007 02:22 AM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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One of the reasons some may have written it off is that it is now passing through the Hurricane Graveyard. History is not on its side at this point, unless it can make it into the western Caribbean.
It does appear to me to have rotation at least in some levels... but I can't pinpoint where the LLC is, if there is one. It's a shame the islands don't have an active radar.
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 02 2007 04:05 AM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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Quote:
It's a shame the islands don't have an active radar.
actually, there is a radar that shows pretty much the entire lesser antilles here , but there isnt really much to see in terms of rainfall
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 02 2007 11:55 AM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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Quote:Quote:
It's a shame the islands don't have an active radar.
actually, there is a radar that shows pretty much the entire lesser antilles here , but there isnt really much to see in terms of rainfall
I meant a decent radar
- One that updates at the same frequency as the U.S. ones do (roughly every 6 minutes) so that the animation can show any circulation, if one is present.
| bigbelly |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Aug 02 2007 02:50 PM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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You can check this site out to see some of the movement of the storm. Western Atlantic AVN Color Imagery
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 02 2007 03:23 PM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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damn that to me would be the best looking defind sqaull ive ever seen in my life
would anyone else agree
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 02 2007 03:27 PM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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Two comments from the satellite presentations of these two systems today:
The GOM is certainly at the least a very broad elipitical area of low pressure, but there may be a little tightening up in the eastern side of that elipises, to the SW of Apalachecola. Just something to watch. The forecast is for higher pressure in the Bahamas to exert over the entire eastern gulf in the next 36 hours so this thing may get pushed on shore before it really starts.
The Carribean system is much better organized and has grown since daylight. It seems to be grabbing moisture from the SE behind it and if so that is a sure sign of development. I guess the issue with this is no clear LLC, or stacking of an LLC with the midlevel, which is what was occurring a couple of days ago. I still don't see any reason why this won't be a storm before it plays out. trajectory seems to be WNW to Central America.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 02 2007 03:48 PM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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Its actually less developed then 36hrs ago.. yesterday it lost it LLC and pressures went from near 1008mb to 1011mb. It looks impressive right now..but there is only a convergence squall line from ENE winds and SE winds... also its being enhanced some by a upper low to its west. Unless the aircraft find a real tight LLC...this will have to wait till it passes Jamaica in 48hrs or so.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 02 2007 03:54 PM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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I admit I have not been able to stay on top of what actually is occurring in that system, so thanks for that Scott. But it seems that it is growing in the daytime which is different and I noticed some trailing and developing lines of convection ese and se of the system which may indicate some strengthening...is it being re-investigated today?
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 02 2007 04:20 PM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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I think the odds are fairly good that recon finds a reasonable LLC today. Late last night I was able to find the (or one of the) old LLC, again, near 12N 61W. It was a tight little vortex, but very small, and weak. I believe it was Monday overnight when I was last able to discern a legit LLC. The pulsing nature of the convection up until today has not allowed any of them to take. Flareups at night, only giving up the ghosts come daybreak. The wave itself became the dominant player, and raced ahead.
Which is the interesting part. It appears to have been such a vigorous wave as it crossed the Lesser Antilles (wind gust to 58 mph in Barbados within one of its squalls, for example) that it quite possibly shoved away a good deal of the dry air ahead of it. Convection started increasing during the overnight. While we were sleeping, it would now appear that either that same tiny, weak LLC has nuzzled under the deep convection, or a new LLC has been attempting to reform.
The big changes I perceive today include
1) Convection continued to improve during daylight, rather than dissolve, although might be either waning or pulsing again at this time.
2) Noteworthy inflow feeding in from the N,NE,ENE,E, ESE, SE & S, and only a very limited amount of dry air ingestion off of South America. This is a bit unusual, and promising for further development.
3) Another impulse ahead of 99L, closer to Panama, has also served to limit the previously dry environment.
I might guess they have a slightly better than 50-50 shot of closing a surface low off somewhere, around or between 13N 67W and 14.5N 68W.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 02 2007 04:27 PM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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I answered my own question. Apparently the recon is going into the Carribean system today...recent QuickScat data confirms what Scott stated, no LLC and no westerly component to the wind at all. The area of most noted convergence from the NE and SE winds is pretty close to Venezuela.
The Aircraft is not going into the GOM today. Radar shows that this is mess...and multiple cyclonic spins exist: Near Jacksonville, close to the central west coast of Florida, and SW of Pensacola.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 02 2007 05:26 PM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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Navy Issued a Tropical Cyclone alert for 99L. it may not have a LLC but it's really close. Looking at the RGB loop, I think the only think keeping the system an open wave is the relative speed of the system. As someone said a little while ago, it's the best looking wave I've seen in a very long time. And I honestly wouldn't be suprised if there was an LLC lurking around 15N 67W.
the GOM looks like a mess and won't be going anywhere fast, but you still have to keep an eye on it.
| Texas Cane Tracker |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Aug 02 2007 05:51 PM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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Looking at the latest satellite imagery, it seems that if there is a LLC forming (with 99L) it appears to be at roughly 14N and 67.3W. Look at the last frame of the loop and there appears to be some decent rotation.
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 02 2007 05:54 PM |
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cieldumort
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cieldumort i think your right about giving up the goast at daylight. My thinking though is that winds from the cooler ocean naturaly excelerate toward the warmer land mass of central america a trough usually sits over venezuala untill the water of the carribean and adjacent atlantic reach their max and it kinda pulls the trough out from over land into the ocean later in the month and thats when you get your big carribean systems.
the trough being over land now is probbaly the only thing robbing this from inflow from the south not allowing it to close off.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 02 2007 07:28 PM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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99L appears pretty good to be in the eastern carribean graveyard ; yet, i do not see the 'dry environment' impacting its ability to survive and to continue churning westward . 99L appears to have anormous potential- at least as it appears on the sat imagery.
| La Nimo |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Aug 02 2007 07:41 PM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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First of all this is the 2nd time Recon has invest the Wave with no LLC. . also the speed of the system about 25 mph which in implies that it is just a strong wave at this time.
| ElizabethH |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 02 2007 08:06 PM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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That wave in the Caribbean is moving! But in the last few frames, it looks like some storms are firing around what looks center-like but still no circulation. The storms could be just from diurnal heating, but if they can hang out into the overnight hours, then we could see something possibly a little stronger over the next 24-36 hours.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 02 2007 10:44 PM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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wow... out of town for a few days... Come back and boom... someone flipped the switch?
I'm still thinking like i did on post #75998 ... 99L......I see recon could not find a closed low... but i expected as it passes the "caribbean graveyard" right now... but once past aruba... will the upper level pattern become favorable? Based on what i have seen some of the models.. yes and no. The long range keeps it moving to the west fast.... But i am curious if the ridge extending into the GOM, starts to turn back the north with time? Based on this evening sats.... its looking better, than earlier today... Floater RGB ... Very nice shot before the sun goes down! Very nice banding this afternoon... Cirrus clouds expanding very nice.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 03 2007 12:11 AM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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it looks to me like the overall cloud tops have warmed incredibly since the sun went down. The area where the LLC appeared to be is completely void of anything at all right now. It literally looks like the whole system was flattened.
Check that, it actually looks like all of the moisture - every last drop of it - has been pulled into South America. As the clouds pulled apart from 99L, I can see where they built on wel inland in South America. Weird!
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 03 2007 12:51 AM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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A part of the latest AFD out of Tallahassee on the GOM mess.... this probably will prove to be much needed rain for the panhandle...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF
THE CWA EXTENDING FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDS EAST TO WEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF. TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...EXPECT THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES TO SLIDE NORTHWARD
OVER AND TOWARD THE CWA. A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH JUST WEST-NORTHWEST OF TAMPA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE BIG BEND TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. WILL SHOW LIKELY POPS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER DEVELOPING WEAK LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION SOUTH OF MOBILE AND TRACKING IT NORTHWARD TOWARD PANAMA
CITY. THEREFORE...WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD. FOR SATURDAY...EXPECT MAINLY SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE CWA AND PLENTY OF LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH WILL
KEEP POPS NEAR CLIMO.
...Part of the TAE AFD @ 9:15pm...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
915 PM EDT THU AUG 2 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
PRETTY MUCH A CLASSIC DISTURBED DAY ACROSS THE NE GULF AND MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. CURRENTLY...THE TROUGH IS LOCATED IN OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND EXTENDS INTO NE FLORIDA...SE GEORGIA AND ON INTO
THE ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH IS OBSERVED QUITE WELL BY THE LATEST
UPPER-AIR RUNS...TBW HAS DEEP SW FLOW...WHEREAS TAE HAS EASTERLIES
THROUGH 500MB. RADAR LOOP SEEMS TO INDICATE A SMALL CIRCULATION IN
APALACHEE BAY. LITTLE MOVEMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS.
THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA. MY LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A
1010-1011MB LOW LOCATED IN THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 03 2007 03:00 AM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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I'm starting to think that both this feature in the Gulf as well as 99L are not on the development path. While there's a weak surface low with the former in Apalachee Bay, there's just no real focusing mechanism along the broad trough across the northern Gulf -- nor are there any signs of one developing. This may end up just being a rain event for Florida and parts of the SE, a much needed rain event. With 99L, it's a lot like a storm a few years back -- others have said Chantal from 2001, though I haven't looked to see if that's truly the case -- in that it is moving too fast for the convective bursts to have much of an effect in terms of developing a surface circulation. With no surface circulation, convection can't persist and the system can't develop. With conditions a bit more unfavorable further west and no signs of the feature slowing...I'm thinking our development chances from either of the system can be knocked down just a tad.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 03 2007 03:27 AM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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kinda agree with clark... this feature (99L) is just moving along way to fast i think for it to get its structure going... At this rate, it should be in the C. Amer. in 2 days... It's just amazing to see how strong that suface ridge is out in the atlantic... if this system was about 10kts a little slower....it would have a much better chance for the storms to build and close off a center..... But it looks to be getting hammered with the speed in movement and the upper level winds its starting to encounter ahead of it.
Not seeing any storm flaring tonight... atleast not as of 245utc
I'm curious to see what happens in the GOM... With this trough hanging around like it is, until it moves out in a few days... i would expect we get some flare up of storms tonight and another weak low to form and move northward.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 03 2007 04:30 AM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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I too agree with Clark, it could turn out a rainmaker or a storm like Chantal in 2001. I remember that storm, I think it came close to Hurricane status but hit Mexico too fast. Anyways, another burst of convection developing in the circulation, we'll see what morning brings, I doubt we'll see the blow up that we saw last night but, I could be wrong. If it blows up with a LLC, TD4 has arrived, but that's about 50/50 chance in my books. Funny how people say it's gonna be a quiet season when things are setting up for a dangerous season, You got shear lowering, Bermuda high setting up in a dangerous spot, and neutral to La Nina. Just doesn't make sense to say we are gonna have 10 storms or less. Again,m lol that's my opinion.. oh and if this isn't in the right forum, i'm sorry, go ahead and move to the proper forum
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 03 2007 05:33 AM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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i see what you talking about with the latest burst... interesting if you look at the storms... think there is about 3-4 storms flaring up... but look at there blow off pattern...to the SW or to the west from the east... the storms appear to go from south to north at the surface at the lower levels... atleast on the right side of what could be the low... almost like its trying to re-form to the northwest a little more? i think based just on sats.. maybe 14.5n 70.8w at 445z.... (just a rough guess)
RGB Floater two
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 03 2007 05:34 AM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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there was never really any model support for the 2.. the cmc isnt a reliable model to choose from. I was never really interested and kept saying so. There is a chance though still 99l might get enough organization by the time it gets in the extreme western carribean by Saturday evening..but just a 30% chance. Otherwise nothing much really to get excited about.
scott
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 03 2007 05:44 AM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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Our two features aren't looking anything like they were late last night and into the first half of Thursday.
The mid-level circ in 99L is easy enough to spot tonight, with most of the deep convection, most of just about any convection, now removed. So, looks like if one is to track this as a coherent feature, which it is, I look to 14N 71W as the new starting point. As has been pointed out by many others, this puppy is on a tear.
If there was a closed off surface low today, it looks to have been inland over northern South America. Pressures in Aruba were markedly lower, and quite a bit of the deep convection looks to have been excited out that way, at the very same time 99L was shedding away convection as if it was layers of clothing on not only prom night, but prom night on the last night before the day the world ends.
I might be going out on a limb a little, but it does appear that the mid-level circulation is still enough intact, and upper-level outflow is still occurring, that should 99L possibly hit a sweet spot between here and central America, it could maybe still pull something off. A little burst of convection under that apparent MLC's center at this hour. I wouldn't even hold my dogs breath for anything to come out of it at this time, however.
The surface trof in the GOM does look to have closed off a very weak surface low in the northeast corner, but more and more today this entire feature has looked less and less potentially tropical, and more and more simply extratropical with a slug of tropical moisture wrapped up into itself.
Models still suggest that a warm core low could pop up either just south of Louisiana/Alabama/Mississippi, and/or also just W of central Florida. Sure looks like it has tried to do so in both locations, but upper-level winds over the entire surface trof have shifted from anticyclonic, to cyclonic, lending even more to that extratropical side, and far less to the tropical.
Early August. Based on 1944-2005 as a representative sample, the second named storm of a season doesn't form "on average" until August 6, and the first hurricane doesn't get called until August 14. We shouldn't be all that surprised if two features, which certainly looked rather promising, still don't end up pulling it together at this point in a season.
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 03 2007 05:18 PM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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Does anyone else see a little spin in the clouds just south of the TX/LA border where there is some storms firing up? Could this be where maybe something gets going? I know there has been talk about if something were to happen in the GOM it would be south of LA or the Florida panhandle. Just curious to know other's thoughts on what they see.
Shawn
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 04 2007 04:23 AM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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11PM Central Sat midnight Eastern.
After watching the Wave 99L perk up again all afternoon I feel confident in saying tonight that a renewed LLC is forming. Indeed 99L is also back up on NRL at this hour, back at its earlier upgraded max winds of 30 knots (estimated from when it was merely a vigorous open wave again)
I place the center of 99L now at roughly 15N 81W. Based on my own experience using the Dvorak technique, I would submit that it is running a CI of at least 1.5... and probably getting closer to 2.0 99L looks to me to be quite possibly on the precipice of being a legitimate depression at this hour. Interestingly, it would appear that it is on a fairly steady trajectory for central America - possibly to cross over into the Eastern Pacific.
If 99L continues this current trend for another 6 to 12 hours, *and before making landfall*, I believe it will be upgraded to number 4 in the Atlantic, possibly to oddly enough earn a number/name in the East Pac, should it stay on that course and remain enough intact. I think there possibly is a very small chance that it veers more to the NW, and could yet enter the southwestern GOM, and an ever slimmer chance that it veers even more to the NNW than NW. But if I had to place bets, I would put the greatest odds on a landfall somewhere around the border of Nicaragua and Honduras, to as far north as Belize.
The last official words from NHC are from the 10:30 EDT TWO
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT FRI AUG 3 2007
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS MOVING
RAPIDLY WESTWARD AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING SHOWERS AND SQUALLS TO
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING A LITTLE MORE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...BUT DEVELOPMENT MAY BE HINDERED DUE TO
PROXIMITY TO LAND.
Will be interesting to see what they have to say at 2AM.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 04 2007 04:28 AM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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Actually, I think if it were to blow up later tonight, it could be upgraded as early as 11 a.m. tommorrow. Wow the circulation is indeed present and convection is swirling around it... Looks like 99L made a comeback and is also the best looking thing i've seen since last year. I expect a TD if this proccess continues, the big word is IF. Persistance is the key!
| nc_tropical_wx79 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 04 2007 04:40 AM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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So is 99l still tracking or has it slowed/stalled as mentioned on anothe blog?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 04 2007 05:09 AM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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99l is going into Central America...it may be classified but even so...its just a rainmaker for Central America.
| weather_wise911 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 04 2007 04:54 PM |
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Re: Enter August... Two Systems to Watch
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99L is too close to land now--but perhaps this is our next area of interest???
Link
It is a large mass of afternoon convection from South America--& although it's a long-shot--if those storms persist, we might have something to keep an eye on.
http://img503.imageshack.us/img503/25/satom3.png
Take care...
WW-911