MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sat Aug 04 2007 09:13 PM |
A Brief Lull
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99L has moved inland mostly and never got its act together, at times it did look like it would have a shot, and it appeared the National Hurricane Center thought enough of it to send out recon to it twice. But, thankfully it did not develop.
Similarly the system in the Gulf never got itself together either, so that leaves the Atlantic in a brief Lull period.
Next areas to watch will the Intratropical-Covergence zone (east of the Caribbean) and off the Atlantic coast, where there is some minor activity now. If anything happens, it won't be until later in the week, and no models (Except the CMC, which has been on a phantom roll lately) suggest anything right now.
However it is now August, and things can change rapidly, so the entire basin is open to being checked. The latter half of August is when things usually start to really pick up. Enjoy the Lull again, and hope it lasts a long time.
We'll be watching.
{{StormLinks|99L|99|4|2007|2|99L (Still!)}}
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 05 2007 02:17 AM |
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Re: A Brief Lull
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Scatterometer shows that a LLC moved inland into Nicaragua, moving inland from roughly 12N, but this was already a long, long time ago in the lifespan of 99L.
What is almost remarkable, is how the "Wave of 99" keeps on keeping on (Can we just start calling it that? It seems most appropriate to give it its own title considering how tenacious it has been). While NHC just about wrote it off again, and again, and again, as I type tonight, the 99L floater is back up, and 99L is back up on NRL, still at 30 knots.
Most impressively, the mid-level circ appears to have crossed over the tip of the Nicaragua/Honduras border, is continue to get better organized, and may be riding WNW.
Being that I am posting from Texas, a tenacious sneaker wave like 99 is not something I think those of us out this way can kiss goodbye just yet. This is especially true given how saturated the s0ils are here. Should 99 never even come to be an officiated depression, which it is not forecast to do, the idea of a well-developed, tenacious wave continuing to gain latitude, perhaps to be steered more or less into south Texas, one way or another, be it from moving inland from the southwestern GOM, or from coming up from having already moved inland over Old Mexico, is one that those of us this side of the Gulf should still watch.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 05 2007 12:06 PM |
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Re: A Brief Lull
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well.. whatever was trying to form out of that MLL has moved inland, all threats on 99L develping has gone. Though it could refire back in the Pacific and actually develop. Things should start to explode in a few weeks in the Atlantic.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 05 2007 03:19 PM |
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Re: A Brief Lull
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From the available pictures, it looks more like a tropical storm in satellite presentation than it ever did while in the water, such as the back feathering and forward feathering of clouds. However, I realize that looks are deceiving. I am referring to 99L. As for keeping an eye on developments, the train of the intertropical convergence zone is starting to look busy to me.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 05 2007 06:15 PM |
| Attachment |
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Lesser Antilles Wave
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The "high amplitude tropical wave" located near 20N/ 60W appears to be working down to the surface.
While upper level winds are cyclonic, and not usually favorable for development.
The 200mb map from NHC indicates this area to be on the southern end of a TUTT. Which may be amplifying the circulation.
Latest visible photo (time sensitive) shows cyclonic curvature in the cumulus cloud streets. Over a fairly wide area.
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html
cloud streets photo in attachment above~danielw
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 06 2007 08:25 PM |
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Re: A Brief Lull
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Noticed on visible imagery this afternoon, an area of cyclonic turning around 35W/12N. I think this might be the area that the Canadien (GEM) is showing for development. Does look interesting. I have trouble cutting in links so you'll have to go look at it, but its not the one south of the Cape Verdes, but to the west/northwest of that. Think this may have potential :?:
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 06 2007 09:41 PM |
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Re: A Brief Lull
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the thing steveh1 mentions is about 'it' right now. it doesn't look especially impressive but is maintaining to slightly improving right now, so it might be something in a couple of days. the stuff on the itcz isn't really moving though, at the low levels, while easterly waves are buzzing right along in the low-mid troposphere above the surface convergence and turning. it will need to do something or the next wave will smear it flat back into the itcz.
since 99L tried to go, chantal went, and the eastpac has been modestly active lately, that sudden snap that tends to happen in august during la nina years when everything suddenly switches on is likely not far in the future. it's usually the 15th-20th, which is in the two week period anyhow.
in other news it's hot as blue blazes in the east right now. fairly strong amplitude ridge right now, with troughing offshore. heights will start to fall a tad here and may create a recurvature corridor near the east coast for anything that happens. it does appear, though, that the mean trough position this year is off the east coast and may lead to numerous recurvatures.
HF 2141z06august
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Aug 07 2007 05:37 PM |
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Re: A Brief Lull
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Quote:
heights will start to fall a tad here and may create a recurvature corridor near the east coast for anything that happens. it does appear, though, that the mean trough position this year is off the east coast and may lead to numerous recurvatures.
HF 2141z06august
What exactly do you mean by recurvatures? Are you talking sending storms out to be fish spinners, or bringing them onshore along the east coast?
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Aug 07 2007 09:45 PM |
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35W 10N?
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Something seems to be stirring very very far out in the Atlantic. Cyclonic turning and convection which has some modest support from the CMC model (and only the CMC model, nothing else notices it at this point). Really far out and about the only thing of interest that I can see. It's still somewhat embedded in the ITCZ... so it's probably not going to do anything fast if it does actually begin to develop.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Aug 07 2007 09:59 PM |
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Re: 35W 10N?
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On Wunderground they are talking about something headed towards Florida in 16 days on the GFS. Obviously, it doesn't mean much if anything at this time.
I am curious where you can see these models go out for such a long period of time though.
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 08 2007 12:36 AM |
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Active areas
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Any model could not possibly yield any worthwhile output beyond 5-6 days as I see it. I believe in the experts' opinion that this season has barely begun.
The CMc and GFS models have been spotting ghosts, I'd imagine. But those areas immediate to the east of the Windwards bare watching; after all, tis the season!
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 08 2007 05:49 PM |
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Re: A Brief Lull
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Looking at the 12z CMC (which has not been so well this year), it has 2 storms doing a semi circular boomerang trajectory one behind the other starting and ending in Central America without hitting US soil.
If nothing else, it's kind of neat to watch.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Aug 09 2007 11:50 PM |
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something finally
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several of the globals have been persistently developing the wave slated to move off the west african coast later tomorrow. gfs has been doing it every run, euro is seeing it some, and some of the other models are following it, too. variety of forecasts for whatever synoptic pattern would be in place were it to develop and come across. gfs has been mostly pushing it across, but is recurving it in the afternoon runs. euro has a pattern in place going into late month that might turn it up or might block it and yank it west. looks like a moderate chance we'll get a storm and a lesser it chance it might be a real threat.
keep an eye on the nw caribbean/gulf around mid next week. synoptic pattern looks good for something and the nogaps and euro are suggesting something might pop. if i was in texas, particularly south texas, i'd take a glance over the weekend.
hotter than hell here. got to 106 over at the airport. hottest day here since 1999.
HF 2350z09august
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 10 2007 09:35 AM |
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Re: something finally
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Following Hank's post with this morning's Model Run update.
Excerpt from the run.
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
107 AM EDT FRI AUG 10 2007(edited~danielw)
VALID AUG 10/0000 UTC THRU AUG 13/1200 UTC
LOW FORMING/MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...
THE NAM HAS SHOWN GOOD CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEMS EXPECTED TRACK OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS... THOUGH ITS 09/12Z RUN WAS A STRONG OUTLIER.
THE ECMWF HAS BEEN A BIT WEAKER WITH THIS SYSTEM... BUT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A 500 HPA SHORTWAVE RETROGRADING THROUGH
THE AREA WHICH IT HAS BEEN TRENDING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD WITH OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS.
THE GFS IS WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM IN THE SURFACE PATTERN... BUT APPEARS TO BE SLIGHTLY QUICKENING THE PROGRESSION OF ITS 850 HPA REFLECTION OVER ITS PAST DAY OF
RUNS... SHOWING MORE OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAN A SURFACE LOW.
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
LOW FORMING/MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND...
THE NAM IS THE STRONGEST PIECE OF GUIDANCE WITH THIS POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW...
WITH THE CANADIAN THE SECOND STRONGEST AND THE OTHER GUIDANCE A BIT WEAKER.
THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO EMMINATE FROM THE
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT THIS TIME.
THE REMAINING GUIDANCE SHOWS MORE OF A TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY... WITH
THE ECMWF SHOWING THE MOST NORTHERN SOLUTION. SINCE THE NAM AND CANADIAN ARE NORMALLY TOO BULLISH ON TROPICAL LOWS... WILL BUY THE CONSENSUS DELAYED SCENARIO FOR THE TIME BEING... NOT PREFERRING A
SURFACE LOW UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING...OR THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.
FROM THEN ONWARD...WE WILL BE STICKING WITH WHAT WAS AGREED UPON DURING THE THURSDAY NOON CONFERENCE CALL WITH NHC WITH REASONABLE EXTRAPOLATION OF THE FEATURE INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
DAY 7.
SEE THE PREEPD ISSUED BY 09Z AND THE RELATED MEDIUM RANGE PROGS CONCERNING THE MEDIUM RANGE FUTURE OF THIS FEATURE. SEE THE LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK/TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSIONS FROM TPC CONCERNING THE CURRENT STATUS OF THIS SYSTEM.
SEE THE QPF DISCUSSION ISSUED BY 09Z CONCERNING POTENTIAL RAINFALL IMPACT ON
THE KEYS/SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THIS SYSTEM.
All of HPC Discussions
NHC Main Page
| ElizabethH |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Fri Aug 10 2007 01:43 PM |
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Re: something finally
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Holy 0z CMC model Batman! This model run blows up a monstor in 4 or 5 days! I didn't look yesterday afternoon so I don't know if the cmc has been predicting this for a day or so or not but geez. NHC did mention an area of clouds and thunderstorms in the caribbean that may have the potential to develop over the next couple of days. Upper level conditions are moderatly favorable for development right now. There is a little shear in the path of this disturbance up near the Yukatan.
But the ever aggressive cmc will have to be monitored as usual. Further out, it also develops something off the coast of Africa. As does the gfs. Keep on watching everyone!
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 10 2007 01:48 PM |
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Re: something finally
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Can someone provide a link to that model run please? Where is it taken this system?
Shawn
That can be found at the bottom of the Main Page
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 10 2007 04:06 PM |
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Re: something finally
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CMC has been developing a storm for a couple of days now. It does that at times (when none of the other models are picking up on
anything). If other models start picking up on it then might be something to consider (what I was told). Gulf is 89 degrees here.
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 10 2007 07:34 PM |
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Re: something finally
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A couple of the models seem to be in agreement about something coming off Africa in (I think) 80+ hours.
But as always, don't board your windows based on model runs. *LOL*
Bottom line is, it's that time of year again when people need to stay on their toes and stay aware.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 10 2007 07:51 PM |
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Re: something finally
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Well....globals are coming into better agreement on a low exiting the African Coast in a few days and crossing the atlantic... GFS was first, than the CMC jumped aboard...(now CMC has 4 areas from the Gulf Of Mexico to the east coast Atlantic to the far western Atlantic, kinda over doing it again, which is expected of the Canadian Model) but now most other globals are coming on with the Afican low coming off the coast in a few days... they all vary in how weak/strong and the path they take... I am a little curious to see if something can make the track across the atlantic, right now.
i have been studying some stuff over at <a href="www.eumetsat.int" target="_blank">Eumetsat</a>... reading some things and what from what i can tell there has been somewhat a shift in flow over northwestern Africa... above where the ITCZ would be... which i think there has been some areas that have gotten wet, that are usually very dry. This would help the dust that is pulled down into the Atlantic with the ridge that is just to the SW of Europe... but with the flow around the high... it is pushing cooler waters down towards the area that would be favorable for Tropical Cyclone formation... near the Cape Verde Islands... I think clark talked a little about the Cooler Waters and setup in this region a few weeks ago......
This 24 image shows the low cloud product.... RGB...and you can kinda see where the cooler air is at... EUMETSAT - Met 9 RGB **note this is really only good for night time use... but does show better where low level mositure boundries are... cirrus clouds, etc.
This 24 image shows the dust product... RGB.... and you can see where possible dust in the air is at... **Dust appears pink or magenta in this RGB combination... Dry land looks pale blue (daytime) to pale green (nighttime). Thick, high-level clouds have red-brown tones and thin high-level clouds appear very dark (nearly black). EUMETSAT- Met 9 RGB
(I find it easier to watch the sats if you speed up the player)
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 11 2007 12:13 AM |
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Weak weekend
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Plenty of TV hype over the African Wave. And it's way beyond the accurate forecast period for any of the Models.
Still bears keeping an eye toward the CATL Gap- Central Atlantic
Models, NWS offices and at least one of the satellite sites I checked are indicating the Bay of Campeche' / Yucatan Peninsula area is probably the area to watch over the weekend.
Cyclonic circulations at differents levels were visible earlier in the Eastern Bay of Campeche' and just east of the Bahamas. With the former having a more formidible appearance.
Bouy 42055 was located under or near some convection in the western semicircle of the circulation... based on wind direction and wind change over 24 hours. And temp./ dew point being the same... 100% humidity.
Pressure was at it's lowest in the last 5 days. However pressure fall appeared to be diurnal.
Will wait on tonight's model runs to see if the consistancy in the models holds out.
Weak cool front passing thru MS about 70 miles north of the GOM. May add a little stir to the mix.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 11 2007 05:16 AM |
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Re: Weak weekend
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Yeah, there'll be a lot bantered about with that wave coming off of Africa this weekend I feel. Conditions aren't ideal due to cooler-than-normal water temperatures near the Cape Verdes, but it looks like all other conditions are favorable and that this feature is going to remain far enough south from the outset so as to avoid most of those complications. It's a relatively easy track forecast for anything that does form out there over the next week -- west to west-northwest at 15 or so mph until it gets near the Lesser Antilles. That's where the fun begins. It's largely too early to speculate beyond that, but we'll be watching how a trough across the northeast United States evolves over the next week as it could be key in determining the ultimate track of this feature -- if it develops, of course. The models are in surprisingly good agreement on something forming out there, I'd just go a tad slower than they figure as of now.
Meanwhile, the mess in the Caribbean festers but without anything really to focus upon. I suspect daytime heating and the associated diurnal convection over Cuba and Hispaniola may be hindering things at least a tad. This one's going to be much slower to move over the next few days. It's something to watch, but as of now I think our more significant action may come from the deep tropical Atlantic in the next few days.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 11 2007 01:22 PM |
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Re: Weak weekend
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As for the African wave, it's not just the CMC that is picking up on it. The UKMET and GFS are also showing something developing.
Here is the GFS phase analysis: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfs/fcst/archive/07081106/46.html
--RC
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 11 2007 02:46 PM |
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Re: Weak weekend
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I don't put a lot of stock in 180 Hr forecasts but since model output is always a basis for discussion I will post this link. I tried to research this model to figure out whether it is a stand alone product or what model suite they were using to initialize with no success. Maybe one of the mets can shed more light. In any event it looks like we will be spending more time on this site. This is a wave height model.
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/waves/latest_run/nww3_at.anim.gif
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 11 2007 03:19 PM |
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Re: Weak weekend
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There seems to be a big rotation centered between Eleuthera and Nassau this morning, but with very little convection associated with it....is this because it is not at the surface or just the result of the drier air to the north of it? All the convection is to the south and we need some to wrap around to the north to cool us off up here.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 11 2007 03:54 PM |
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Re: Weak weekend
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Trying not to get into the realm of speculation, the NCEP 16 day forecast GFS model shows that system holding together all the way to the US. Given that anything past 2-3 days is useless for tracking hurricanes, I don't think anyone should worry about it yet. It could go anywhere still.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 11 2007 04:42 PM |
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Close to home,,,
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-vis.html
The pressure is falling around the disturbed weather off of SC.
Bouys show the pressure is dropping and the winds remain out of the West.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41033
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=fbis1
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/chs/
any chance for this to develop?
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 11 2007 05:15 PM |
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Re: Close to home,,,
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Doesn't look like anything we should be concerned about. All the models take it out to sea and toward Great Britain as a vigorous low pressure system, but nothing tropical in nature. No closed low, no cyclonic rotation.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 11 2007 05:36 PM |
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Re: Weak weekend
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The cyclonic circulation moving west from the Bahamas is in the mid and upper levels and the circulation around that is affecting the area near Cuba/Jamaica. However that area is persisting and there is not much real directional movement, which means it needs to be watched.
A weak trough is dropping southward toward the Florida peninsula which is supposed to enhance instability in conjunction with the aforementioned mid-level low...
I would suspect that if anything does "go" in the western Carribean it will move generally westward.
EDS