MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 03:02 PM |
Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles
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6:45AM EDT Update 16-Aug-2007'
Tropical Storm Erin is making landfall in Texas this morning as a weak Tropical Storm south of Corpus Cristi, bringing a iittle rain to the area. Most of the rain is to the north of the center of the system, however. But much of Texas could use anything but rain this summer.
Erin is spawning weak tornadoes in Texas, along with the rain.
Dean is now a Hurricane, the first of 2007. It is still moving westward and hurricane Warnings are up for the Lesser Antilles islands, with an eye that may starting to become visible. Dean could be a category 2, or perhaps 3 by the time it reaches the lesser Antilles, people there need to be prepared now.
The forecast track is taking it westward, the most likely scenario takes it into the Yucatan Peninsula, and eventually then into the southern Gulf. Extrapolating takes it into Mexico, but that still is quite long range, the entire Gulf still needs to watch it. Although models have been remarkably consistent on taking it west, with no apparent weakness sin the ridge ahead of it. However, the latest GFDL is trending it into the Gulf. So it'll be important to watch if it's just a fluke or others follow. Long range models are still a dartboard.
This is because normally the long range forecasts are problematic, but so far, they appear to be behaving. The trough in the Bahamas, actually more of a developing mid to upper level cutoff low, is not expected to be strong enough to alter Dean's forecast path. The circulation around the cutoff low could actually help to maintain the southern portion of the western extention of the mid Atlantic ridge over Florida - and keep Dean on his west northwest track.
Tonight aircraft recon will get a first attempt at approaching Dean, along with the Gulfstream jet to measure upper air patterns ahead of the storm,which means Tomorrow models will have that data to help along with the future track, which should improve models for later in the run.
Judging by appearance, Dean may be stronger than it's currently estimated to be, so an accurate measurement by the aircraft recon will be welcome.
The other areas discussed haven't had much go on with them, and the system off Africa did not stay together all that well, so near term development there is not expected -- but we may have to watch it later.
6PM EDT Update 15-Aug-2007'
Interestingly, despite a late morning blowup from Erin to become a tropical storm it has not formed the stacking structure necessary for further strengthening, so it will likely make landfall as a low to mid strength Tropical Storm.
Dean continues to look more impressive, nearing hurricane strength, with pressure dropping. Those in the Eastern Caribbean/lesser Antilles need to prepare now for the storm, which may be a fairly strong hurricane by the time it reaches the islands.
Beyond that, the official forecast keeps it moving westward, just south of Jamaica and into the Northwestern Caribbean.
Beyond that it is still too early to say, please look at the cone, especially at the long range (I still don't trust the long range models), rather than the exact track, folks in the Caribbean need to prepare, those in the Gulf and Florida need to be aware of Dean as well, it is currently forecast to become a Category 3/4 storm when it enters the Caribbean.
Outside of that, the wave that came off Africa recently doesn't seem to be holding together, but some are strong enough we may need to watch later, and an interesting disturbance in the eastern Gulf (east of Erin) is starting to become interesting as well. Welcome to mid August.
11:30AM EDT Update 15-Aug-2007
TD#5 was held as a 30MPH depression at 11am, but a recon flight found Tropical Storm force winds at flight level shortly thereafter, causing the system to be upgraded to Tropical Storm Erin. Strengthening to moderate tropical storm strength is expected before landfall sometime tomorrow.
Dean is up to 60MPH and may become a hurricane tonight or by tomorrow. Those in the Eastern Caribbean should be prepared and the rest of the basin, Gulf and East coast should remain prudent watching it. The forecast track seems fairly good 3-4 days out.
More to come later.
8:35 AM EDT Aug 2007 Update
Tropical Depression #5 is looking much better organized this morning, recon flights are scheduled to go out and take readings on this system. Those in Texas will want to watch this system.
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Dean|04|4|2007|1|Tropical Storm Dean (Far Eastern Atlantic)}}
{{StormLinks|Erin|05|5|2007|2|Tropical Storm Erin}}
{{radarlink|bro|Brownsville, TX Radar}}
{{radarlink|crp|Corpus Cristi, TX Radar}}
{{radarlink|hgx|Houston, TX Radar}}
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 03:22 PM |
Re: Dean And TD#5
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Could someone please explain how the existence of TD5, and its future remnants, might pump or deflate the adjoining ridge...? I'm curious as to how the models are handling the affect of the gulf storm on the future track of Dean.
Thanks...
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 03:25 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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it is now Tropical Storm Erin! Recon found TS strength winds.
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 03:28 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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Looks like TD#5 is refiring convection again over the center after going through a little lull. Still thinking this could get to be a 60mph storm before landfall...if it can establish ONE center.
Shawn
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 03:50 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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Galveston has a cumulative 6% chance of having minimal tropical storm force winds. This is from the NHC wind speed probabilities table: http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/FONT15.KNHC
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 03:57 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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Corpus Christi weather service bulletin:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/statements/08151551.KCRP
Quick Summary:
3-6 inches rain with localized up to 8 inches.
1-2 foot storm surge
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 04:07 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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Actually, I would rather see the wind than the rain here. We don't need anymore rain in this area.
Shawn
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 04:10 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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It appears that Tropical Storm Dean has had a track further west than originally expected. Why do some of the forecasts show a northward turn eventually? And if the storm passes through the Herbert Box, does this indicate a higher risk for the Florida coast?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 04:20 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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Erin is a rainmaker for the TX coast. Winds will gust near 50mph on the coast near the center but overland expect winds around 20-30mph and heavy rain. Isolated tornados can be expected also. This isnt a wind storm unless you live on the coast or on a big lake.
Dean... should be come a hurricane. Most models now take this to Central America or the Yucitan by early next week. Florida chances are droping especially if it doesnt go north of Hispaniola cause there Wont be no cold front to swing this NW or NNW. A general W or WNW path is expected until at least 80W or past Jamiaca thru the weekend as a trough lifts out over the bahamas and is replaced by a expanding ridge.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 04:28 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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Historical tracks near what Dean is taking:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200704_climo.html#a_topad
Of these, Allen and the 1903 systems are the only two that kept the westward motion that the models are indicating Dean will take. Additionally, Allen has shown up as near the same track for two days now, meaning Dean and Allen have taken very similar paths so far. Not trying to panic anyone, but historical information is something to keep in mind when looking at hurricane tracks.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 04:32 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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Vortex recon in for Erin.
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/URNT12.KNHC
1005mb poorly defined core.
35kt winds.
---
696
URNT12 KNHC 151518
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 15/1444Z
B. 25 DEG 37 MIN N
93 DEG 24 MIN W
C. NA
D. 35 KT
E. 045 DEG 35 NM
F. 119 DEG 44 KT
G. 047 DEG 36 NM
H. EXTRAP 1005 MB
I. 25 C/483 M
J. 27 C/483 M
K. 24 C/29 C
L. POORLY DEFINED
M. NA
N. 13/1
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 0205A CYCLONE OB 12
MAX FL WIND 44 KT NE QUAD 1433Z
SLP EXTRAPOLATED FROM 1500 FEET
| hurricaneguy |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 04:35 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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I know it may be a little premature but does it look like the mainland U.S. will be spared now? It sure looks like Dean is on a collision course with Mexico.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 04:39 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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Well is seems as though TD#5 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Erin. This means that we now have two storms that have formed. Tropical Storm Erin is morer than likely going to strenghten in the Gulf Coast, as these waters are very warm in August, and it seems as though maybe Erin and Dean are doing the same thing. Both are slowing down, but at the same time gaining strength in both the Carribean Waters and the Gulf Coast. Miami local news station CBS 4 predicts that Erin will ne a threat to Texas. It also seems as though Texas is already taking precautions. Galveston, South of the Border, Houston and the Coast of Freeport are all under a tropical storm warning. For more info on Tropical Storm Erin, see this website: http://cbs4.com/topstories/topstories_story_226232256.html
Now as for Dean, at 11:00am EST, Tropical Storm Dean has winds that have sustained 60 MPH, Dean has a pressure of 997 Mb, it is at 12.4 N and 45.0 W, latitude and logdidtude, it is moving west at 20 mph, and it is 1045 miles east of the lesser antilles. The national hurricaine center has stated that Dean is strenghthening over the Central Atlantic Ocean, and they are predicting that this storm will continue to strengthen as it moves into the west because of the warmer water and the lessening of the wind shear. The high pressure twords the north is what has been steering the storm the last several days on its track. By Friday at 8:00am, they are anticipating a category one for Dean. As the storm moves twords the carribean waters, the storm is predicted to be a Category 2 for Saturday and Sunday and then a Category 3 on Monday. At this point is looks as though the speed will be 16, winds sustained of 120mph, and moving at a WNW pattern.
Flossie has issued a national state of emergency for Hawaii. They do not think Flossie will touch Hawaii, but brisk it. The waves are increaing for her however, and in turn Hawaii's coasts are taking a huge impact from this.
Is it a possibility for Dean to take a turn and head for the US? Or is Dean going to follow the track of Erin and possibly meet up with her and strenghten. All is unknown right now, and the Coast of Florida is urged to start preparing because as this storm increases, it may take a hit at Miami and Florida's coast.
These are some updates
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 04:46 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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How on earth could Dean possibly catch up with Erin & strengthen? You are right..still plenty of unknowns..but that statement isn't one of them. Dean is at least a week away from where Erin is & she will be long gone by then.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 04:46 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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Latest satellite shows dean making a northward jog. We need to wait and see if this is a course change or just a jog.
--RC
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 04:49 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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Quote:
How on earth could Dean possibly catch up with Erin & strengthen? You are right..still plenty of unknowns..but that statement isn't one of them. Dean is at least a week away from where Erin is & she will be long gone by then.
It was just a thought that had popped into my head. There really is no need to get an attitude with me. Even though Dean is a week away from Erin, they could eventually get close enough to each other that they interfere with the storm systym causing it to get alot worst than predicted. Like I said, there are still alot of unknowns at this point.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 04:50 PM |
Re: Dean And TD#5
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hello everyone!! Erin is a cooldown and a rainmaker for texas....Dean well really its still up in there air anything can happen it could turn north or keep going into the yucatan it depends if the high will be near florida... living here after charley I hope so..and one more interesting tid bit if you look on the central atlantic visible ... there another low spining behind dean about 400 miles or so ... is that an upper low or is it at the surface???
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 04:50 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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Quote:
Latest satellite shows dean making a northward jog. We need to wait and see if this is a course change or just a jog.
--RC
Could you get me the link to this satalite image please?
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 04:52 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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Quote:
>Is it a possibility for Dean to take a turn and head for the US? Or is Dean going to follow the track of Erin and possibly >meet up with her and strenghten. All is unknown right now, and the Coast of Florida is urged to start preparing >because as this storm increases, it may take a hit at Miami and Florida's coast.
>These are some updates
With all due respect, they seem more like wild guesses than updates.
Not wild guesses at all. Here in Miami, I have followed the news reports closely and if you want the links to some of the video webcasts I will surely post them. I am just restating things that reporters have stated here in Miami. Maybe they are wild guesses because at this point, no one really knows what to expect from Dean, but I was just restating these facts from the news.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 04:59 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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People in florida dont need to prepare for Dean no more then they would stock up for a June 1st hurricane season. People should just watch these systems and get the updates every 6 hrs.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 05:04 PM |
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Re: Dean And Erin
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from the looks of the "latest" visible on the navy site, Dean has probably just made Hurricane strength.. I believe at 5 p.m. we will be tracking our first Hurricane of the season.. also note the trough in the Bahamas, looks a bit strong, could bump Dean a bit north as some of the models are predicting. Very interesting, I think as the storm intensifies today, it may move more north of the track as I preidcted earlier.. Still far out there folks, can't really predict if it's going to be a GOM or East Coast storm if it hasn't even reached the islands yet. We'll see what Dean does during the next few days. we are looking at a good rapid intesification if it is a Hurricane at 5 p.m. today.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 05:07 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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I agree with twizted sizter - how can these systems possibly get close together? Erin is about a day from landfall and will quickly break up over the higher elevations. Dean is still over a week from Erin's position - in fact, NHC places Dean's 5-day position near Jamaica.
About the only way that Erin could affect dean is if it weakens the high pressure system developing over the central US that is going to cut Dean off from an east coast hit and help force it into the gulf. But that high pressure is dropping down from Canada, and the 12Z GFS shows Erin's remnants no where close to the high pressure system, so it is unlikely affect it much at all.
Further, tropical systems in close proximity disrupt each other, not strengthen each other, so your premise is false.
As for satellite imagery sources: SSD, GHCC, NRL, etc. Take your pick. Each is better at different things. SSD is the easiest to use and has multiple color overlays enabling better understanding of the system. GHCC has longer term and fully customizable animations. NRL has microwave imagery and multiple satellites. There are other sources too, but these three tend to be the most useful.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 05:12 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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Quote:
About the only way that Erin could affect dean is if it weakens the high pressure system developing over the central US that is going to cut Dean off from an east coast hit and help force it into the gulf.
Well, it could also help to strengthen that high pressure ridge (due to the warming at upper levels from its convective outflow), resulting in impacts on the pattern further to the east. It's kinda like the case of a recurving system leaving behind a weakness to cause other systems to recurve days later, except the reverse scenario. Granted, in this case, it's likely to be a very small impact -- but probably still a noticeable one.
(Edit -- on retrospect, I see that this also helps answer the question posted by "tumbleman" in the second post in this thread. If they would like more info on this, please reply and explain.)
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 05:15 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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On the left side of your screen is a column with quick links to the other forums here as well as forecast maps from the NHC you can click on for the latest forecast maps fromthe NHC. You will see that Erin is forecasted to be inland tomorrow morning. Dean will still be way out in the Atlantic. Erin is not forecasted to stall in the Gulf for a week so the possibility of her & Dean meeting up is less than zero...no attitude just trying to clarify the misinformation you heard & repeated.
I myself would be interested...maybe others too...in seeing the videos of the newscasts you said you had of that scenario playing out. If you click on the forum link I mentioned to the left you will see that the one intitled Forecast Lounge would be appropriate for that & even the Comedy Lounge.
| NativePensacola |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 05:22 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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Dean has taken a little jog north of west in the last few satellite frames. Wobbles are normal, but how far will it wobble and how much will this affect the track? It has already almost jumped up close to 13N, which it was supposed to not reach till 52W according to the official track. This storm seems to have everyone guessing.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 05:22 PM |
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Re: Dean And Erin
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The TMI Satellite (see NRL) recently made an overpass of Dean. Impressive core showing up on microwave (85GHz). I would agree: expect a hurricane either next update or at 11pm.
Tracks seem to be converging, with both the 12Z CMC and GFS sending it strait toward the Yucatan.
One thing to remember on the models: they base the track on the levels of the atmosphere the system is currently in. As the system deepens, it begins to be affected by higher altitude steering currents. At present, we are too far out to see what they will do when Dean enters the Gulf, but it is something to keep in mind.
CMISS steering currents: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/winds-dlm.html
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 05:25 PM |
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Re: Dean And Erin
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Satellite imagery of Dean certainly looks quite impressive. He is a very small storm, as the NHC say TS winds only go out to 50 miles. However, he looks to be getting strongerwith a well defined CDO feature, and hints that an eye may appear shortly. The banding features have improved in the lower levels too. Dean has certainly taken advantage of the improving upper-level conditions, and warming SST's, and could easily strengthen more than the official forecasts suggest.
Erin is also taking advantage of improving conditions,and will probably continue to strengthen up until landfall. My guess would be near 60 mph as a peak intensity. Deep convection is firing over the centre, and banding is improving too. Conditions will now begin to deteriorate across the lower Texas coast as Erin strengthens and approaches.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 05:31 PM |
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Re: Dean And Erin
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Dean isnt going to show a eye shortly. Maybe in 24-36 hrs. I would throw out the CMC model as it initializes Dean too weak and doesnt get a handle on him until 60W and its only 13N (where its almost at now).
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 05:39 PM |
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Re: Dean And Erin
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Check out the below model runs....they added the Herbert boxes to the map - cool!
http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_04.gif
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 05:44 PM |
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Re: Dean And Erin
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If it is a hurricane by the 11 PM advisory tonight, which is possible considering the latest microwave pass shows an impressive building eyewall (see NRL), I wonder how the models will be affected. A stronger storm would take a more northerly path, no?
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 05:49 PM |
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Re: Dean And Erin
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Right now, no, it would stay on the westward track.
Take a look at the steering currents for hurricane strength (cat 1 only): http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm2.html
There isn't a northward movement of the steering currents for several days, so I don't think that speed on making hurricane will affect motion that much.
More likely to have affect as it enters the Caribbean, as that is when it will be near the northward steering currents. By then it should be stronger, probably need to reference the 400-850mb or 300-850mb steering current graphics. The gap that exists for stronger storms doesn't exist for a TS, and the models are using the TS strength system right now. We might very well have a chance at recurvature that the models aren't picking up on, depending on how fast that high from Canada can close the gap.
Only thing is we are still too far out. Those are "what it is now" graphics, and not "what it will be in 3 days." We just need to watch and see right now, and as the system deepens, the models will take the new pressure into account when determining track.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 05:50 PM |
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Re: Dean And Erin
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a stronger storm wont matter from a 50mph system to a cat 4... just matters on how strong of a ridge is to its N.
When there is a weak LLC it will be dominated by the LLF and usually go with that.
| SeaMule |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 06:13 PM |
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I don't think it's a northward jog
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I think the convection is blowing up and causing an illusion. It's gonna be a hurricane within the next few forecasts, and it will grow much larger in size.
no, it's not wishcasting....I'm watching the water vapor loop....
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 06:19 PM |
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Re: Dean And Erin
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New advisory for Erin says that the center may be reforming further north under the main convection and watches/warnings will probably need to extended northward to include the Houston/Galveston area. That has been my thinking all along.
Shawn
| HURRICANELONNY |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 06:36 PM |
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Re: Dean And Erin
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Is Dean moving West or WNW. Or has it relocated farther north. On the Floater it sure is not moving straight West anymore. :?:
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 06:37 PM |
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Re: Dean And Erin
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It looks like Dean is not on a jog right now and is actually heading slightly further north of the predicted track at the moment.
Hopefully, it returns to a more westerly path later.
Time Sensitive Image: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
| Allison |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 06:44 PM |
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Re: Dean And Erin
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Quote:
New advisory for Erin says that the center may be reforming further north under the main convection and watches/warnings will probably need to extended northward to include the Houston/Galveston area. That has been my thinking all along.
All the more reason why it's so important for us not to focus on the single line track.... (just like the mets have been telling us for ages!)
This is especially true since, as appears to be the case with Erin, areas north of the center (i.e., Houston, Beaumont) may see most of the rain.
When I see an image like this --
-- I try hard to put aside the idea of tracking a LLC center and instead just see a storm headed toward the Texas coast.... For me at least, it helps put it in perspective.
ETA: Sorry about the file size guys... I thought the image would appear smaller in the actual post....
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 07:00 PM |
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Re: Dean And TD#5
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Erin is really starting to look sickly. She's looking elongated and looks like the center of circulation is going one way and the rest of the system wants to go another. Then again, I could just be seeing things.
Shawn
| lawgator |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 07:00 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Erin Forms in Gulf of Mexico
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I always like to look at the visual image of a storm rather than the IR loop when deciding whether a storm is making a "jog." The center is usually a little more definitive, at least in the early going, on the visual for me. At any rate, here's the visual loop on Dean.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
If you click and check the box for the "trop frcst pts" you can see the forecast points plotted on top of the line the storm seems to be taking. If you do that with Dean, it does appear he is a tad bit north of the projected path, but only IF you draw it in a straight line to the next plotted point. And its a small "jog" at that.
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 07:01 PM |
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Re: Dean And Erin
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Dean does appear to be further N than forecasted. Based on the visible he appears to be approaching 13N shortly..something based on the 11 a.m. advisory he wasn't to do until tomorrow. I've looked several times but will admit it is hard to tell without a well defined obvious eye.Based on that personal short falling of mine I question whether it's more of a legit movement or just the appearance of one based on his improving organization.
Thankfully recon is scheduled tomorrow & will give us a better understanding of his structure, enviroment, & thus a better idea of his destination. Although I believe that info won't be processed into the models until Fri mornings run.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 07:17 PM |
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Re: Dean And Erin
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Hey Scott,
Reading your posts you seem 90% sure that Dean will NOT be a East Coast Event.
It looks like Dean will pass through "Heberts Box":
http://www.hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm
Doesn't this statement apply?
"Every Major Hurricane that passed through Box 2 late in the year, hit the Florida peninsula prior to 1950. Hebert says that a Hurricane does not have to pass through these boxes to hit, but if they do "you better pay attention"
Looking at the Visible:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
It sure looks like to me that Dean might be making a jog N.
I think the center of Dean will be N of the next Forecast point looking at the above link.
It's my GUESS, but I still think that Dean will be a S Florida event. When Monday gets here we will all know for sure.
(disclaimer) by NO means am I trying to be acusitory, I value your opinion, and have been reading your posts for years.
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 07:21 PM |
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Re: Dean And Erin
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I haven't been able to see when RECON will be back in Erin...or arethey there now? I haven't seen any new info from RECON yet.
Shawn
| MissouriHurricane2008 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 07:27 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Erin Forms in Gulf of Mexico
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looking at a satellite image of dean, the center circulation is becoming defined. seen a couple of computer models take this storm to a cat 3. i can see it going higher its going to go into some very warm water. also seen some historical tracks of past storms in relation with dean those storms get in the cat 4 cat 5 area. need to watch this one very carefully
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 07:31 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Erin Forms in Gulf of Mexico
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To me, it looks like Dean is bobbling, wobbling, or tracking north of the projected path.
It's too soon to tell if this trend will maintain. It could just as easily jog south again. Or speed up. Or stall. Or ... whatever.
I would suggest staying calm and reasonable -- this storm will most likely wobble, shimmy, and shake itself back and forth across the "LBL" for quite some time until it's close enough to the CONUS and GOM for models to give us more reliable data.
At this point, anything beyond three days out is totally guesstimation on the part of the software used to generate models.
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 07:34 PM |
|
Re: Dean And Erin
|
9 out of 10 that pass thru impact S Fl...maybe Dean will be that 1 that misses if he passes thru it. Andrew & Betsy didn't pass thru & who can forget them?
As an interesting aside based on the earlier spaghetti models they went thru the 2nd Hebert Box. The 2nd box only applies to a developing or moving storm before Oct 1.
Charley '04, Frances "04, & Wilma '05 were our most recent ones.
| mikethewreck |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 08:00 PM |
|
|
Re: Dean And Erin
|
Isn't the Hebert box simply a statistical tool developed before sophisticated models were available? A bright forecaster looked at historical storm tracks and recognized most Florida storms came through a certain area of the ocean. But each storm is unique and lives in a unique environment. I'd trust the analytical models based on the real world environment more but I'll definitely keep an eye on storms transiting the Hebert box.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 08:02 PM |
|
Re: Dean And Erin
|
Definitely looks like rain here. Sky clouding up and temperatures are cooler. Even had some wind. Looks like some of the outer
bands of Erin will be coming in soon. Rain or no rain, we are just glad for the cooling off.
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 08:12 PM |
|
Re: Dean And Erin
|
Beaumont,
Do you see anything suggesting the center of circulation reforming further north? I'm curious if they were wrong about that and if they really will extend the watches and warnings.
Shawn
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 08:19 PM |
|
Re: Dean And Erin
|
Yes, Hebert's box is an artifact of the days well before our numerical models could even begin to correctly forecast storm motion. Paul Hebert of the NHC noticed that a lot of storms that happened to pass through that area did or could impact S. Florida, and it has existed sort of as a "benchmark" ever since. As you mention, however, it's best suited as just a tool -- our numerical guidance and understanding of the atmosphere and tropical storms are both much improved today and should be relied upon moreso than a climatological forecast.
As a note for everyone today, please refrain from making the so-called "one line" posts (like "I think we could see something in <insert location here> from <insert storm here>.") If you have a personal question to ask another user, please use the Private Messaging feature of the boards instead of asking it here. Of course, if it's a question related to the storms, their tracks or impacts, or something of that nature, please feel free to ask those here. (And discuss the storms here, too!) Thanks all...
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 08:30 PM |
|
Re: Dean And Erin
|
Quote:
I haven't been able to see when RECON will be back in Erin...or arethey there now? I haven't seen any new info from RECON yet.
Shawn
Hi Shawn,
You can always check the recon schedule for the given day at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD_last.shtml?. Recon was slated to arrive in the storm again about 2p ET today and stick around for much of the afternoon. Judging from the latest reports, it looks like a plane just took off within the last half-hour and is heading that way now.
You can see the full suite of recon products at http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/reconlist.shtml.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 08:33 PM |
|
Re: Dean And Erin
|
Hi, I am new here, found this site a few days ago. Great information given here. I live in Louisiana and do have a question about the high pressure that is currently sitting on top of us here in the southeast. Does anyone know if this high pressure will eventually move away and allow Dean to hit the central gulf coast? The reason I ask is, I remember Rita in 2005 and she rode the high pressure to the La/Tx border as the high pressure kept moving farther east. Is there any indication this might happen this time? Thanks in advance!
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 08:36 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean And Erin
|
OUSHAWN,
NOAA is also usually slightly delayed (5-10 minutes) in getting the Recon data up on their website. However, they broadcast it immediately, and Ohio State puts it up as soon as they get the broadcast.
You can reference it here:
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/
URNT12.KNHC is the main vortex recon message. The other URNT's also deal with the recon mission, but are harder to read or just informational.
I'm sure Storm Hunter could give you more detail - he knows much more about the recon than I do.
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 08:36 PM |
|
Re: Dean And Erin
|
Thanks Clark. Doesn't look like they will find much when they finally get to her,though. She is looking pretty wick right now. I wonder if it might be downgraded back to a depression again.
Shawn
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 08:36 PM |
|
Re: Dean And Erin
|
Quote:
Hi, I am new here, found this site a few days ago. Great information given here. I live in Louisiana and do have a question about the high pressure that is currently sitting on top of us here in the southeast. Does anyone know if this high pressure will eventually move away and allow Dean to hit the central gulf coast? The reason I ask is, I remember Rita in 2005 and she rode the high pressure to the La/Tx border as the high pressure kept moving farther east. Is there any indication this might happen this time? Thanks in advance!
It's really too early to tell as of now. Dean, even moving as fast as it is now, is still at least 6 days from the Gulf of Mexico. A lot can change over the course of those 6 days, though right now the various computer models are becoming more consistent on showing a track toward the western Gulf of Mexico as it rides along the south side of one of those ridges of high pressure. It's possible that a weakness develops in the ridge and allows Dean to ride around its western periphery, but that's beyond the range of reasonable forecast skill and accuracy. For now, just stay tuned -- once we get to the weekend, we should know more.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 08:40 PM |
|
Re: Dean And Erin
|
Quote:
Thanks Clark. Doesn't look like they will find much when they finally get to her,though. She is looking pretty wick right now. I wonder if it might be downgraded back to a depression again.
Shawn
Hi Shawn,
I'm curious as to why you think that? To me, Erin looks pretty healthy on satellite right now, at least nominally so for a tropical storm. What are you seeing that suggests otherwise?
Just as a friendly reminder, posts like yours above are better suited for the "Forecast Lounge" forum (accessible via the forum under the "COMMUNICATION" sidebar at left, underneath the storm images) unless you provide some reasoning behind your thinking. Even if you're relatively new at following tropical systems, at least a little bit of reasoning helps -- and can go a long way in helping you learn about these systems.
Thanks!
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 08:47 PM |
|
|
Re: Dean And Erin
|
I think Forcaster Blake writes the first sentence perfectly:
BASED ON WHAT WE THINK WE KNOW ABOUT INTENSITY CHANGE...THERE DO NOT
SEEM TO BE TOO MANY INHIBITING FACTORS TO A FUTURE INTENSIFICATION
OF DEAN. GLOBAL MODELS UNANIMOUSLY DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE NEAR THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IN COMBINATION WITH VERY DEEP WARM
WATERS...THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A POWERFUL
HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF
THE SHIPS...GFDL...HWRF...AND LGEM MODELS.
| LisaC |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 08:53 PM |
|
Re: Dean And Erin
|
I guess we will see hurricane watches up for St. Lucia and maybe as far north as the virgin islands tomorrow. Not sure how far up the island chain they will go if the westard motion is expected to continue tomorrow, however from my elementary plotting tools (a map and a pencil
) I see the storm just slightly north of the predicted path right now.
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 09:00 PM |
|
Re: Dean And Erin
|
Clark,
I certainly appreciate your knowledge and advise. The latest advisory points out what I was alluding to...the system's center is poorly defined and it keeps wanting to reform the main center of circulation. Now I know stronger storms (hurricanes) like to reform their eye sometimes but this is barley a tropical storm and it has been doing that which is why I said that I thought it was sick.
Shawn
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 09:26 PM |
|
Re: Dean And Erin
|
Quote:
Clark,
I certainly appreciate your knowledge and advise. The latest advisory points out what I was alluding to...the system's center is poorly defined and it keeps wanting to reform the main center of circulation. Now I know stronger storms (hurricanes) like to reform their eye sometimes but this is barley a tropical storm and it has been doing that which is why I said that I thought it was sick.
Shawn
Well, weak systems are also known to do that -- much more often than mature hurricanes, in fact. (I think you might be thinking of eyewall replacement cycles moreso than true center reformations.) These jumps/reformations can be brought about by a number of things, often associated with convection and mid-level circulation centers. These systems have a tendency to try to be as vertically coherent (upright) as possible and, if a new dominant mid-level center forms in response to a convective burst, the LLC will often to try to reform underneath it. It's generally a sign of a storm trying to intensify than one that is weakening.
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 09:28 PM |
|
Re: Dean And Erin
|
You're right, I was thinking of the eyewall replacement cycles. Well, that's why I value your opinion so much. I have learned something new today.
Shawn
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 09:34 PM |
|
|
Posts
|
Not directed at anyone in particular.
Please use the PM option to send mesages to another user/ member. Posting directly to another user/ member could result in the post being sent to the graveyard.
The site is fairly busy right now and it take quite a bit of time to sort the posts from the messages. Thanks.
As of right now there are over 400 people viewing the site.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 09:42 PM |
|
|
|
GOM
|
I've widened the sat shot at the top of the page to permit viewing of what appears to be a secondary LOW forming in the Eastern GOM. Not enough data to determine what level it is at right now.
Front/ trough moving into the Northern GOM appears to have initiated a vortice in the area due south of Appalachicola. Near 26.0N/ 86.5W-quick estimate.
May be diurnal in nature... but it's unusual to see any convection of this nature on the backside of a tropical system.
Just something else to look at for now...
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 09:55 PM |
| Attachment |
|
|
|
Re: GOM
|
Okay Daniel, you've got me confused. I did a screenshot of what you posted -- are you talking the smaller area at the top where I circled, or the larger area that I circled? Is this a feature the NWS/NHC is talking about?
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 09:56 PM |
|
Re: GOM
|
A met on S2K is posting the latest run of the GFS...at the 30hr mark it shows a low in the central Gulf. I wonder if it is this feature? What effect would/will this have on Dean as well as any weakness in the ridge? Although as of now this is in the E Gulf this feature at 30 hrs is W of this?
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 09:56 PM |
|
|
lone star abuse, caribbean trouble
|
the rainy summer in texas is about to pay dividends for flooding concerns. erin should pile a good bit of misery on what has been a constant theme for texans. in spite of the suddenly impressive satellite appearance this morning the center remains disorganized and not very strong. oftentimes these western gulf systems do that right up to landfall, but quickly improve just before going in and on the way in. erin has another 12 hr or so unless the center jumps nw, so the forecast intensity should probably stay put. just a good thing it didn't develop a defined center yesterday morning... right now an intensifying hurricane would be coming closer instead.
dean is a little fellow, but looks healthy and ready to keep getting stronger. i'm really surprised that none of the caribbean island governments are issuing watches... it should be on them inside 48 hr. model consensus keeps dragging dean further west and faster. i keep looking at that ridge fracture that cuts off and backs west, that's supposed to not affect the storm... but am not convinced that it's totally right. think the consensus is too far left, and that the larger caribbean islands have more to worry about... but that's just an opinion. in any case the forecast intensity at a scary cat 4 looks right as rain, not the least bit surprising. my initial nerves were for florida in some capacity, but not a whole lot of the number-crunchers think so right now. the g4 will be out there eventually and toss in some better readings, and then we'll have a really good idea who has to deal with this sucker.
out behind dean the waves are following in a conga, with another well defined one just west of the cape verdes, and another good one coming off. seems to be enough separation from speedy dean for the trailer... i'd expect another one out of the current two followers (models resolving them funny and many seem to be merging them). keep that on the back burner while dean comes a-calling on the caribbean.
HF 2156z15august
| hurricaneguy |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 10:23 PM |
|
|
|
Re: lone star abuse, caribbean trouble
|
Nice informative post Hank! I know you said you think the NHC is to far to the left on the track now but doesn't this storm look like a Central America problem and not a United States from current models? Any body care to fill me in on why the GOM should still be worried? I thought this ridge will be dug in like a tick.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 10:41 PM |
|
|
|
Re: lone star abuse, caribbean trouble
|
Nice informative post Hank! I know you said you think the NHC is to far to the left on the track now but doesn't this storm look like a Central America problem and not a United States from current models? Any body care to fill me in on why the GOM should still be worried? I thought this ridge will be dug in like a tick.
Look at the satellite in teh Bahamas, a strong trough is digging a bit south and could be what is causing a more WNW movement on Dean. I agree with Hank on this one, I can't see it moving to Mexico.. I see this more like a Dennis/Ivan storm. Also we thought Ernesto last year was going into the GOM, but then while it was in the carribean, the storm veared NW and headed to the East Coast. In this explaining that ANYTHING can happen with Dean, it could still hit the East Coast, could be a category 4-5 in the GOM, or could actually miss the USA and hit Mexico, It's still out to sea right now.. lets see what happens.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 10:45 PM |
|
|
|
Re: lone star abuse, caribbean trouble
|
i think they've gone a little too far to the left. not a whole heck of a lot, though. think the models are splitting the upper trough too fast. pattern should amplify just a tad due to all the energy the tropics are adding to the equation. not guaranteed, but that's usually what happens.
don't think it's an east coast problem, anyway... but the straits of florida over to the gulf coast should mind what dean is doing.
HF 2245z15august
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 11:05 PM |
|
Re: lone star abuse, caribbean trouble
|
Quote:
don't think it's an east coast problem, anyway... but the straits of florida over to the gulf coast should mind what dean is doing.
Unfortunately, I completely agree with you on this one, HF. But, beyond the straits of Florida and "gulf coast", that's a big area, which could include Mexico, all the way over the Ft. Myers to Key West. Do you think it's going to stay in the eastern GOM, or continue on a west course through to Texas like Erin is doing? Or is it too early to tell (obviously is it, but I'm looking for your opinion here).
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 11:14 PM |
| Attachment |
|
|
|
Deanie
|
Looks like Dean is going to complete an eyewall in the relative near future.
See Attachment
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 11:17 PM |
|
Re: lone star abuse, caribbean trouble
|
Man, I must be looking at satellite pics way too much because it sure looks like that Erin is trying to reform a center further north again and it is headed right towards Port O Conner. I thought I saw this is the last few visibles. Please tell me I'm seeing things.
Shawn
| byrdlh |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 11:31 PM |
|
Re: lone star abuse, caribbean trouble
|
What is out there that could turn the storm North if it reaches the gulf? Bad time for a storm, school's starting next week. Kids already wishing for hurricane days. I know that the high over the SE right now is what is steering Erin, if it stays in place would the N gulf area be spared?
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Aug 15 2007 11:36 PM |
|
Re: Deanie
|
It would surprise me a great deal if Dean is not upgraded at 11pm, at the latest. The overall system has begun to grow tonight, the organization appears to be quite good, with banding in almost all directions, and the estimated pressure is down to 994, which is indicative of a Cat 1 hurricane.
It also appears to have resumed a basically due west motion early this evening, right on course.
byrdh: It's way too soon to tell what, if any, impact we'll have here along the coast (I'm a bit west of you, in Valparaiso). The local mets say we'll know more by the weekend, but I think it may be into next week before we really have a handle on the ultimate destination for Dean.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 12:02 AM |
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Erin Forms in Gulf of Mexico
|
All indications are that Erin has -nearly- opened up into an open wave this afternoon. The constant re-centering having exacted a cost on the formative cyclone's potential. All along Erin has been a somewhat generous call, but not outlandishly so. Simply, the mid level circulation has outrun and outperformed the low levels, at the cost of leaving the low levels in the wakes to play catch-up. Erin still has a chance to become something closer to a full-on tropical storm overnight tonight, taking advantage of the nocturnal max.
Once inland, it is very possible that Erin slows down, spins down, and produces overnight core rains. Most models are supportive of this scenario in at least some fashion.
A further concern for us in Texas, Dean may want to generally follow any left-over troffiness out here.
Please
To reiterate what others have already said, please put the one-liners and chat room posts in the appropriate forums, or private messages.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 12:03 AM |
|
|
Re: lone star abuse, caribbean trouble
|
Quote:
What is out there that could turn the storm North if it reaches the gulf? Bad time for a storm, school's starting next week. Kids already wishing for hurricane days. I know that the high over the SE right now is what is steering Erin, if it stays in place would the N gulf area be spared?
That is exactly what we are having trouble seeing at this point. Those living along the Gulf Coast are just simply going to have to know that forecasters (and models alike) will not have a better grip on Dean and the accompanying synoptics until Saturday, at the earliest.
And the pattern that is in place with Erin could easily change by next week (and will).
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 12:07 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Posts
|
Second request. With a large number of posts being directed at another user/ member. It's taking quite a bit of time to sort through the posts and messages being sent on the Talkback thread.
Please use the PM-private message function/ option to send a message to another user/ member.
Further use of the Main thread for personal messages can result in the post being sent to the Graveyard.
With the season ramping up rapidly. You will find that it's easier to read the thread without the personal messages in it.
Thanks
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 12:07 AM |
|
Re: The Rules.....again..
|
The Main Page posting has been getting a bit messy and now that things have picked up some I think it would be a really good idea for a review of the posting rules. DanielW gave a heads up a while back regarding this. Posts are going to be moved or deleted if needed to keep the Main Page on track from this point forward. Pay close attention to the "one line" posts and any post that could be done with a PM to the poster. It is not that hard, really.
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| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 12:07 AM |
|
|
Re: Dean
|
I follow the old rule- models are good for extrapolating known data at varied points in time; however, with each update you get new variables that affect the equations- therefore, the solutions, therefore causing newer tracks. I will believe the modeled tracks when Dean is at least 3 days from impacting my area.
Until then- prepare and enjoy the genesis of what will be a good show and hope for the best - to all of us!
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 01:03 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean
|
Appears Erin is back down to Tropical Depression strength based on recon.
Summary:
20 kt winds
1004mb pressure; no central structure
Satellite imagery shows deep convection reforming over the storm now, so it may yet restrengthen before it reaches land.
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/URNT12.KNHC
039
URNT12 KNHC 160055
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 16/00:42:40Z
B. 26 deg 19 min N
095 deg 11 min W
C. NA mb NA m
D. 20 kt
E. 23 deg 004 nm
F. 083 deg 021 kt
G. 004 deg 003 nm
H. EXTRAP 1004 mb
I. 24 C/ 457 m
J. 26 C/ 456 m
K. 25 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 1
O. 0.03 / 3 nm
P. AF305 0305A ERIN OB 10
MAX FL WIND 37 KT NE QUAD 20:09:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT.
MAX FL WND OUTBOUND FROM CNTR 25KT @ 00:44:20Z
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 01:42 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Dean
|
Very deep convection firing over the core of Erin now. TRMM microwave missed the core and the other recent satellite microwave overpasses aren't high enough res. It might still be TS strength at the 11pm update due to this convection flare up.
---
Dean is still wrapping convection nicely and appears to be filtering out the last of the dry air. Microwave shows the wrapping clearly:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc07/AT...N-492W.59pc.jpg
| CategoryFive |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 01:51 AM |
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Re: Dean
|
Frequent lurker...infrequent poster...as a curious observer of tropical weather, here is a question I have always had......Why do thunderstorms (the heavy summertime afternoon variety so frequent in the South are what I was thinking of) flare up and are caused by the heating of the day yet thunderstorms associated with tropical systems appear to flare up (and thus strengthen) the systems mainly at night?
To the lay person it would appear that the heating of the day would help with thunderstorm activity in a tropical system but that is obviously not the case.
Why the difference? Thanks. Love the site !
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 02:16 AM |
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Re: Dean
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well recon is up to above 5,000ft now.. (5,154ft) highest flight level winds i have seen are From 98° at 42 knots
(From the E at ~ 48.3 mph) at 01:44:30Z. They were directly due east of Corpus Christi... Looks to about to turn north along the coast... They were about 20-30 miles off the beach. Pressure around 1009mb at the surface.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 02:44 AM |
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Hurricane watches issued
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Dean remains a tropical storm - barely. Winds are up to 70mph, pressure is down to 991.
Hurricane watches have been issued for the
following locations by their respective governments...St. Lucia...
Martinique...Guadeloupe and its dependencies...Saba...and St.
Eustatius. The government of the Netherlands Antilles
has issued a tropical storm watch for St. Maarten.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 02:50 AM |
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Re: Hurricane watches issued
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hmm... must got an error in my last recon data on TS Erin
... i got a pressure reading of 995.1 mb at the surface... must of decoded wrong? at about 0220z around 27.13N 96.23W.... the obs was taken was 84 miles (134 km) to the ESE (120°) from Corpus Christi, TX, USA... Opps! i think i see what i did wrong in the spreadsheet... trying to clean it up... HDOB are kinda tricky, along w/Vortex data.
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 02:52 AM |
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Re: Dean And Erin
|
Re: Twizted Sizter's post re: Hebert box, in which he or she wrote: "9 out of 10 that pass thru impact S Fl...maybe Dean will be that 1 that misses if he passes thru it. Andrew & Betsy didn't pass thru & who can forget them? As an interesting aside based on the earlier spaghetti models they went thru the 2nd Hebert Box. The 2nd box only applies to a developing or moving storm before Oct 1.
Charley '04, Frances "04, & Wilma '05 were our most recent ones."
There is much confusion about the stastical meaning of the Hebert box (really, 2 boxes), but regarding the first box that you are discussing, it is absolutely NOT true that 9 out of 10 storms that pass through that box impact South Florida. It may be true that 9 out of 10 strong hurricanes that impact South Florida during August and September pass through that box (although I think the number is somewhat lower), but that does not mean that 9 out of 10 that pass through the box impact South Florida. In fact, I'm almost certain that fewer than half - maybe significantly fewer than 1/2 - that pass through th box do NOT affect South Florida.
I hope that clears that up a bit.
-Brad
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 02:53 AM |
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Direction of Dean
|
I think it is important to remember that the atmosphere around these storms are very complex. And we don't
totally understand every factor that affects the steering of a hurricane. And if that wasn't enough these factors
are constantly changing, Models have greatly improved the track of hurricanes over time but I think the general
rule applies that it's better to just stay tuned to the NHC. Having said all that I believe we will have a better feel for
where Dean is going once they are able to fly the NOAA P-3's into the storm and feed the info gathered into the models.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 02:53 AM |
|
Re: Hurricane watches issued
|
Quote:
hmm... must got an error in my last recon data... i got a pressure reading of 995.1 mb at the surface... must of decoded wrong? at about 0220z
Where did you look at a surface pressure reading? There's no recon into Dean yet.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 03:05 AM |
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|
Re: Dean
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Looks like the ridge fills in completely 72 hrs out keeping Dean moving W to WNW. Not sure what is in the pipeline that would break this down. I think you all would agree that model consensus is remarkable this far out. Having said that I'll probably be boarding up in a week on the east coast of FL. 'not LOL'
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 03:18 AM |
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Re: Dean And Erin
|
That post I made was based on the link Beach posted to Hurricane City..based on Heberts research...very long list of major hurricanes that passed thru & impacted S Fl.
Like Clark said earlier in this era of technology the boxes are not viewed in the same they may have once been.
Personally I find it an interesting ananomly & will be watching to see if Dean passes thru either one of them.
Click on the link & read about it..Hurricane City is a good site with alot of information.
Edit to add...BTW SFWMD model plot has the 1st box highlighted. The plots can be found on the main page or by clicking the NHC map of Dean on the left under the Current Storms heading.
| Valandil |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 09:16 AM |
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Re: Dean And Erin
|
As of now we have the first Hurricane of the season, NHC upgraded Dean with a preasure of 987mbar.
In the IR and WV satelite image one can see what appearst to be an eye that is forming, convetion looks impressive.
I would thing he'd be slowing down now but that doesn't seem to be the case. They put the velocity at 24mph, quite fast I'd say...
Also I found some nice readings from Bouy 41040 It is a bit north of the center.
Vala
|
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 10:52 AM |
| Attachment |
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Dean
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Using the two above shots, and the Dvorak lat/ long shot from the same site.
I'm estimating the Eye of Dean is at 10 miles diameter... this estimate was double checked using the longitude lines on the 'bd-l' sat shot.
A 10 mile Eye on a 75 mph Storm???
Recon is in for a surprise and a bumpy ride when the arrive this afternoon. Actually I think everyone might be a bit surprised... myself included.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd-l.jpg
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 11:04 AM |
|
Re: Dean
|
For entertainment purposes only, When you click on this link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html
There appears to be a little boy, head arms and feet holding a bucket with the water sloshing out over his head from the outflow of the storm. This is achieved by the color intensities in the colored imagery. In a time of stress this is just a little chuckle.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 12:07 PM |
|
Re: Dean
|
Quote:
A 10 mile Eye on a 75 mph Storm???
Recon is in for a surprise and a bumpy ride when the arrive this afternoon. Actually I think everyone might be a bit surprised... myself included.
Good morning Dan (and everyone else)... Actually the 8am advisory just upped the winds officially to 80mph. But still, a 10 mile eye for a cat 2 hurricane is unheard of, I believe, let alone for a cat 1 storm.
I will be a bit surprised by the recon info this afternoon - if it finds anything less than a strong Cat 2 or a Cat 3 hurricane. Given how rapidly Dean *appears* to be strengthening - from looking at the IR loop and the size of the eye - the islands are in for much more than they might have initially anticipated. It's interesting, given Dean's small size, that just about ALL of the Lesser Antilles chain is under a tropical system watch or warning - be it a hurricane warning or watch, or a tropical storm warning or watch. Then again, looking at that IR loop, Dean is growing in size, too, to the south.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 12:30 PM |
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Re: Dean
|
Hmm, there may be a weakness toward the end of the run in the ridge, the latest GFDL model run isn't all that great for those in the Gulf, hopefully that isn't a trend.
It seems the Lesser Antilles may get more storm than they bargained for, however. I'm still thinking intensity is underestimated right now.
| Kal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 12:33 PM |
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|
Re: Dean
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Over the past twenty-four hours or so there has been considerable agreement amongst the various models concerning the forecast track for Dean. This morning I was pointed over to this loop which seems to indicate that the GFDL is now a dissenting outlier. I was wondering if one of our Mets or more experienced storm trackers could speak to what the GFDL sees (or thinks it sees) that would prompt such a drastic swing from the Yucatan towards the Central Gulf Coast. Old data? Bad data? New data? Just curious what the rationale is.
| LisaC |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 01:04 PM |
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Re: Dean
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silly question, when is there gonna be recon into Dean?
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 01:30 PM |
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Re: Dean
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Ok, I wake up to Dean with a 10 mile eye clearly visible on IR. Dvorak shows it clearly too. I am unused to a system below category two with a clear and discernable eye on IR, and it was visible while Dean was still a Tropical Storm.
Based on this, I think Dean has the possibility to rapidly strengthen over the next day. It is extremely well organized for a Cat 1 storm.
As for the GFDL, it doesn't surprise me that we are now seeing a late period northward curve. The steering guidance for deeper storms has a weaker ridge to the north. As Dean deepens, it will be able to make the northward turn sooner as the steering currents will turn northward at an earlier point.
Take a look at the steering currents for a TS strength system (990mb) vs a strong hurricane (930-950mb). Remember that those graphics are current, not forcast in several days. Now, looking at those graphics, you can see the steering currents circle tighter to the ridge for deeper storms, allowing a northward curve earlier. Most models do not take the deepening of the storm into account when determining track, and thus the more westerly motion indicated in most models.
Lisa: Good question. NHC hasn't updated their recon schedule in two days. According to the discussion it said sometime this afternoon, but when?
| 7 Deadly Zins |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 01:47 PM |
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Re: Dean
|
In 1980 hurricane Allen moved into the E. Carib. at 59.1 and 13.6 with a 10 mile wide eye, moving at 20 knots, with 110 knot winds. Allen was a couple weeks earlier than Dean, so water temps may have been a little cooler. Dean is getting some dry air on its west side mixing in, so intensification may not match Allens, but not out of the question.
Recon is scheduled to arrive in Dean at 18z. Should have a vortex message around 2 - 3pm EST.
GFDL does show the N. Gulf move but bends it back toward Texas at the end with a ridge building westward.
Tonights 0z GFS will have the Gulfstream 4 data in it's initialzation. Have to see if any major track changes occur. Gulfstream 4 mission runs at 18z also.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 02:04 PM |
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Re: Dean
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Seems to be a bit of a paradox that GFDL is moving the storm more poleward, but keeping it a weaker system.
Doesn't it usually work the other way, with stronger storms like Dean moving north?
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 02:15 PM |
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|
GFDL
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That is because the GFDL is seeing a trof of low pressure coming down from west Texas around day 5-6 when Dean is forcast to be near the Yucatan. Dean doesnt need to be a cat 5 to be steered north at that point, however I also think the GFDL is way low on intensity at that point.
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 02:30 PM |
| Attachment |
|
|
Re: Dean
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Quote:
Hmm, there may be a weakness toward the end of the run in the ridge, the latest GFDL model run isn't all that great for those in the Gulf, hopefully that isn't a trend.
It seems the Lesser Antilles may get more storm than they bargained for, however. I'm still thinking intensity is underestimated right now.
Mike, I was just looking at this run of the GFDL. After a few runs it is seeing some kind of weakness in the ridge and it's a terrible situational thought for me here in New Orleans. They have a 160 mph, CAT 5 bomb in a eerily similar position as Katrina and moving in a similar direction.
I would be throwing up if it wasn't so far out and the models weren't flip flopping so badly.
I am attaching a pic for those who want to see.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 02:31 PM |
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Re: GFDL
|
It will be interesting to see what the plane finds when it gets to Dean this afternoon. If anything, the apparent eye on the satellite images is actually less than 10 mi. across, since the images don't seem to be fully resolving it (assuming that it is a clear, "pinhole" eye). The CDO convection is somewhat asymmetric and not super intense, so that would suggest it didn't go too crazy overnight.
The major player in the track of Dean still appears to be the upper low that is forecast to traverse the Gulf of Mexico from east to west ahead of Dean. Such things tend to throw a monkey wrench into the track forecasts of tropical systems. The intensity could be affected by the upper low as well, since it could enhancing the outflow of Dean, depending on the eventual orientation of the systems.
I am a little confused by some of the comments re: the GFDL on its latest forecast. It does indeed tug Dean northward into the Gulf of Mexico, but it also depicts a very strong system (cat 4 intensity), not a relatively weak one.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 02:51 PM |
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|
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Re: GFDL
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I think the comments on GFDL is that it doesn't develop dean for the first couple of days, then explodes it. I would tend to think that, given what we have seen the last couple days, Dean will continue to slowly strengthen rather than stagnate for a few days.
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 03:03 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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guys is it me or does the ridge look likes its weakening a lot. there is a big gap now in the ridge now. could this change the track?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html if you click on the mslp box it will show a weaking in the ridge near florida. looks like there is a small something trying to develope in front of dean too.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 03:15 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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NHC 11am discussion mentioned buoy 41010. Seems that's a typo, as that buoy is near Cape Canaveral. Looking at the storm location and the buoys in the area, I think they meant 41040.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040
| nl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 03:20 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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looks like the ull is really cutting that ridge open. does anyone have any thoughts im looking at the wv loop on wide atl and its not looking like a ridge anymore.
| LisaC |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 03:23 PM |
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Re: GFDL
|
Interesting observation with the current warning and watches that are up. Hurricane Warnings are up for St. Lucia and Dominica (both independant islands) however Hurricane watches are up for Martinique and Guadeloupe (french departments). As I recall my caribbean geography counting from south to north on the island chain, its St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica then Guadelope. Why are the french not issuing warnings?
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 03:31 PM |
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|
Hebert Box
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I guess Dean is going to track through the Hebert box as a major hurricane by tomorrow evening. This, coupled with a weakening ridge, makes me feel that the coast isn't clear for anyone anywhere in the Carribean and SE US and the Gulf Coast.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 03:42 PM |
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Re: Hebert Box
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From the looks of the chart on the left, Dean is going to be a Cat 4 outside of Cuba in the Carribean, and then make landfall in Mexico and be a Cat 1. I am wondering if it is a possibility that when Dean becomes a Cat 1, when he goes out to the warm waters of the Gulf, could he strenghthen again and make a curve back to Florida? Or is he going to follow the path ridge of the air?
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 03:48 PM |
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Re: Hebert Box
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It's really way too early to start thinking about which part of the GOM Dean will go or if it will make a funky turn and go to Florida. I've seen these storms so many times in the past be predicted to become monsters in the Caribbean and end up falling apart because they pretty much outrun themselves. Remember, Dean is traveling at a very speedy clip and if it continues that than there is that chance of this happening. Let's not worry too much right now about exact locations until a few more days pass and we get a better understanding of what Dean will be...if anything.
Shawn
| twizted sizter |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 04:01 PM |
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Re: Hebert Box
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Remember the NHC states in their advisory that the margin of error is 225NM on day 4 & 300NM on day 5 in regards to track. Intensity averages 20kt each day. Based on that don't focus on any track past Saturday really. Personally I go by 24hr tracks...so many things can change.
Recon will give better data to be inputed into the models & specific areas that will be affected in the future can be narrowed down. The main concern is to those in the islands right now.
| SeaMule |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 04:02 PM |
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"if anything?""""
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Let's worry a LOT about what this storm might do. It has more of a chance of being a cat 5 than it does of being nothing. It's august, and when the NHC is forecasting a category 3, it's only because they don't understand the forces at play that bring it to a cat 4 or cat 5. it is certainly NOT too early to begin wondering if it will affect the GOM or not. IT WILL....
I have only seen a few hurricanes that headed due west...or wnw...until they hit land. Gilbert was the most notable in my mind. MOST will curve....
never mind that the current models are projecting past 5 days....NO ONE can predict what might happen except this one thing....
we will have a cat 3-4-5 storm in the western Caribbean in August....absolutely NO chance of not amounting to anything....
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 04:11 PM |
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Re: Hebert Box
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Herbert's box is not an absolute, almost 90% but not an absolute. Also, Dean has not passed through it yet, it could go slightly under it. It is true that the GDFL is swinging this storm into the central gulf next week, but one run on one model does not make a trend. I notice that the GFS, which if I am not mistaken is in the same ensamble still shows the storm going into the Yukatan.
We need to see what happens after they fly it and input the data.
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 04:25 PM |
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Re: Hebert Box
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All I know is we are getting slammed here in the Houston/Galveston area right now with some very heavy rain. The local mets are saying 3"/hr. on the rainfall rates and it seems to be training.
Shawn
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 04:41 PM |
|
Tropical Systems Change Rapidly
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Just to give an example of how fluid the atmosphere is I can go back to 2005. Newly upgraded
hurricane Katrina was approaching Ft. Lauderdale and predicted to move W to WNW across FL.
Then something funny happened. High Pressure nuged south and forced the storm on a WSW heading
into the FL keys. Nothing is 100% certian in tropical systems. Just have to wait and see what Dean
decides to do. Let the wait begin!
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 05:01 PM |
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Re: Tropical Systems Change Rapidly
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it wasnt predicted to go WNW it was expected to go WSW (ala GFDL model) some of the lesser models did show a WNW pattern though.
| saluki |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 05:05 PM |
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Re: Tropical Systems Change Rapidly
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At the risk of having this post moved elsewhere ... it seems there is some confusion regarding Hebert's box. If a hurricane passes through box No. 1, it does NOT mean that the storm has a 90 percent chance of hitting South Florida (or any other specific location) as a major hurricane. What it DOES mean -- at least the way I'm interpreting it on various Web sites -- is that 90 percent of major hurricanes that have hit Miami-Dade, Broward or Palm Beach since 1900 have passed through the box. Repeat -- it does not mean that 90 percent of all hurricanes that pass through the box hit South Florida as major hurricanes. So yes, South Florida should watch anything that passes through Hebert's box, but I feel that way about anything that heads in our general direction, Hebert's box or not.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 05:08 PM |
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Re: Tropical Systems Change Rapidly
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that box is soo false anyways. It just matters on conditions in the atmosphere when there is a current system out there. How about you expand Herberts box to say the whole western atlantic...I say most get into it while some curve north before 60W. We can call that... Scotts box. Anyways to me...herberts box is just a joke.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 05:22 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Erin Forms in Gulf of Mexico
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First and foremost, the models are going everywhere! GFS heads it to Mexico, GFDL heads it to Luisiana (around Lake Charles), NOGAPS heads it towards Texas... All in all, we don't know where Dean will head. Models can't grasp the fact that it is already a strong Hurricane and as it head sin teh Carribean, it can do anything.. like Katrina, it can make it's own projected path because the storm will be soo strong. So lets not put at least the Panhandle of FL out of the scene. It is safe to say though that the East Coast will be spared. Though folks all over the GOM needs to moniter Dean as weird things will happen. Remember Ernesto, It was forecast to track into the GOM, instead it did it's own thing accompanied by an ULL and barely went up the East Coast.. remember hurricanes have minds of there own.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 05:29 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Erin Forms in Gulf of Mexico
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Actually Hurricanes dont have a mind of their own. They are steered by the flow in the atmosphere. A hurricane can have a pressure of 898mb but still be pulled north by a strong trough. They do enhance a ridge by pumping more heat above but they dont crash thru fronts. Im sure you didnt mean that, but just saying hurricanes are controlled by ridges and troughs and strength is affected many other ways... windshear,ssts, etc...
Dean should continue a W-WNW path for 3 days and near the south coast of haiti. By then we will see if the Upper low just NE of the bahamas is moving quick enough into the eastern gulf or models might adjust in time...but this is almost 60-72hrs out. Models adjust from run to run. Anything more then 3 days can change...and even before that.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 05:30 PM |
|
Where next for Dean?
|
Ok, so Dean looks quite good on satellite, with a decent CDO, but no visible eye as yet - despite his intensity as a Strong Cat 1. Recon are now sending back obs so will be good to see what they find as they get closer to the centre. Looks as if Dean will pass probably to the north of Barbados, very near to St Lucia or Martinique, as a strong Cat 2 or possibly a low-end Cat 3 on Friday. The general consensus is for a motion towards the Yucatan, possibly with a side swipe at the Caymans. It looks like most of the greater antilles islands will miss the worst of the system though at present.
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 06:01 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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nl,
I see what you are saying with the Upper Level Low or Trough is digging deep into the High, but you also can see it showing signs of pressing to the left with the High starting to move it towards Florida. This is what the models are seeing to showing it moving West in tandem with Dean.
Things can and likely will change somewhat, but right now, things look as forecast.
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 06:03 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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Recon's already finding 90MPH winds and it just entered the system, looks like pressure is down to 970mb. Dean is a bit stronger than the advisory indicated.
| Kevin |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 06:21 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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There was an obvious time constraint involved with releasing the 2PM intermediate.
I would expect an update if it appears that Dean is approaching category 3 status before the islands.
| Kal |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 06:37 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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The GFDL is sticking to its guns in the latest run . It still turns Dean NW between Cuba and the Yucatan, and focuses attention on the West-Central Gulf Coast. As is often repeated, you can't trust model guidance beyond three days, but the GFDL apparently doesn't mind its "outlier" status with regards to its prediction for a NW turn.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 06:44 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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I think there is little question on the importance of the Gulfstream IV upper level wind sampling that will be occurring. This information is going to paint a much better picture of what is going on and should help the future model runs out quite a bit. I think the importance of this upper air mission is adequately stated by the NHC, as they have made reference to this flight in the last 3 or 4 Hurricane Dean Advisory Discussions.
Lots of talk on the evolution of the high, the Cut off low, and other features that may affect Dean. In looking at the current models, I also share concern that the models may be making the overall atmosheric dynamics too straight forward. With respect to the GFDL, this is one the most reliable hurricane forecasting models and this model always gets very heavy weigh in on forcast tracks. With that said, I think last nights GFDL was weakening Dean during the forecast period, as it was seeing a system that would head into the Cutoff low and experience shear. As for todays model runs so far, the GFDL seems to have recognized that Dean is more formidable than the weaker tropical counterparts. As a result, the GFDL now sees an interaction with the cutoff low that moves it NWward, versus lasts nights representation that moved Dean under the cutoff and into a sheared environment.
Now, back to the Upper Low, the high pressure ridge and possible steering consequences. I'm gonna dive into the Water Vapor here, and I'd only like to base my interpertations on how the steering flow may change over the next 24 hours. Tomorrow, I will likely post a similar post looking at the next 24 hour period.
The View across the Atlantic: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html
- The cutoff low does not appear to be weakening, it is moving to the west very slowly,but probably not as fast as one would expect based on the models...This could be an implication, since Dean is making some headway on the cutoff low.
- There is indeed a trough affiliated with the cutoff low, and the trough does extend pretty far into the Carribean.
- True, the Ridge of High Pressure is moving westward and placing some pressire on the southern extent of the Cut-off low/trough. However, I am somewhat concerned about the cutoff low that is also moving westward and centered around around 30N, 46W. The reason for concern is that the interaction of the Bahama'slow and this low may change the orientation of the ridge...instead of the ridge being oriented E-W as forcasts indicate, the ridge may become oriented in a N-S direction. This may hinder the westward progress of the Bahama's low in the coming day or so. It may also hinder the continued westward advancement of the ridge that the models want to depict.
- Finally, I notice a weak (albiet Small) upper level low trying to form ahead of Dean along the South American Coast. (Around 10N and 62.5W). This would have little impact on Dean from a shearing prospective...But as this kink in the upper level winds continues to prog westward, it will be curious to see if this links up with the Bahama's Cutoff Low and increases the southerly flow.
The View across the CONUS: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
- AT this point, the jet stream looks fairly zonal...no real troughs or ridges...so nothing to really move the high over the Missippi Valley/Georgia area too much (considering the ULL over the Bahama's). However, in looking downstream, the ridge over the MissValley/GA also extends into the Northern Gulf and western Gulf States (On the western side of the ULL. So even though the Atlantic Ridge is pushing on the Baham's Low from the east, the High over the Southeast is pushing on the Cutoff low from the west. Talk about mother nature's power play...
In sum, I do not expect the upper level low over the Bahama's to make as much westward progess as was expected during the next 24 hours and the bottom line is this...Dean is making faster forward progress to the west than the Baham's low. Dean and it's anticipated 200MB ridge will push back on the ULL when they get a little closer to one another, but if the Upper Low does not fade away in the next 72 hours, I would not be surprised to see Dean on a more NWerly or Nerly route in days 4-5. That Gulfstream Jet Data is gonna be very important to the upcoming forecasts. I will not be surprised to see the models shift to a little more northerly route over time...much like the GFDL is starting to do now. Mean time...In another 24 hours...it will be interesting to look again and post on what is expected with the upper level dynamics through Saturday...
| WeatherNLU |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 06:51 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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Not only the track on the GFDL, but the intesity. It has it as high as 159KT!
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 06:58 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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On the last run, the GFDL has moved further west. It hasn't joined the "group" yet, but has jumped hundreds of miles?
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 07:00 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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Two quick notes on the outlier GFDL model.
The last two runs of this model were outliers in respect to turning Dean toward the NW.
The 06Z run began the turn at 96hours 20.2N/ 82.0W
The 12Z run begins the turn at 90hours 19.5N/ 81.8W
(the difference is only 6 hours and that is the difference in the times of the model runs.)
So the GFDL is now the right hand side of the Cone of uncertainty...roughly.
One other note. The CLP5 model has shifted from the Bahamas at 120 hours, to a FL Straits/ N Coast of Cuba at 120 hours. In other words it seems to be following the trrend of the GFDL. GFDL shifts to the right...CLP5 shifts to the left.
http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=4&year=2007
Gulfstream NOAA aircraft is now airborne enroute to Dean.
| stormchazer |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 07:01 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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Quote:
On the last run, the GFDL has moved further west. It hasn't joined the "group" yet, but has jumped hundreds of miles?
Can you post a link to that run because I know there was some issues with Penn State's Model Board where it was showing and older run. I understood that the last GDFL was close to the previous run. I certainly could be misunderstanding though
.You can get these at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs -- or straight from the source at http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/hur_nested/storm_1/00/index_hur_nestedpage.shtml -- Clark
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 07:11 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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The shift I saw in the GFL was in the 12Z run. I've noticed that the CLP5 has usually been to the right of the other models.
| mikethewreck |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 07:30 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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I think the Hurricane Center is also well aware of the possibility that the high may not build up and block Dean from the GOM. Throughout their discussions they have been incessantly saying that we all should be watching this storm. I think they are pinning their hopes that the NOAA G-IV will give them the data they need to either confirm the GFDL scenario or correct the model runs. Until they can confirm the GOM is a strong possibility for Dean, it would be imprudent to alarm the already shaken Louisiana and Mississippi folks. Not to minimize the potential human cost of the Dean GOM scenario, but the financial markets are already taking a beating with the mortgage companies. Imagine the prospect of a Cat 5 storm plowing again through the GOM oil fields and refineries.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 07:55 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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Hey All,
Just watching and waiting to see what happens with the models since Dean isn't even to the islands yet. 12z Euro appears to be a southern outlier (often happens with that model). Lots of flooding in the Houston metro based on some training from Erin with some reports of 6"/hour rainfall rates (not substantiated by me).
GFDL's 12z run really makes things look bad for the Houston metro again. I have no way to know if it's going to verify (doubt it), but it, along with the other models, should change a few more times during the next few days. Everyone from the islands, to the Yuctan to the US Gulf Coast needs to be paying close attention. If the GFDL 12z scenario appears like it's going to pan out, you might want to gas up your vehicles/generators/spare tanks sooner rather than later. Gas prices will go up in response. And all we can do is speculate beyond that if it actually verifies what's going to happen with them.
As for the question on the difference between daytime heating thunderstorms and diurnal maximums, the source moisture and synoptics are different. Clark, Ed, HF, Jason or one of the pro mets could probably put it better layman's terms than I could.
Steve
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 08:04 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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Quote:
Two quick notes on the outlier GFDL model.
The last two runs of this model were outliers in respect to turning Dean toward the NW.
The 06Z run began the turn at 96hours 20.2N/ 82.0W
The 12Z run begins the turn at 90hours 19.5N/ 81.8W
(the difference is only 6 hours and that is the difference in the times of the model runs.)
So the GFDL is now the right hand side of the Cone of uncertainty...roughly.
One other note. The CLP5 model has shifted from the Bahamas at 120 hours, to a FL Straits/ N Coast of Cuba at 120 hours. In other words it seems to be following the trrend of the GFDL. GFDL shifts to the right...CLP5 shifts to the left.
http://flhurricane.com/modelanimator.php?storm=4&year=2007
Gulfstream NOAA aircraft is now airborne enroute to Dean.
Daniel, the CLP5 is a statistical model - it's based on historical climatology of storm tracks that are located at the position of the storm you are tracking - it will shift as the storm moves. The 12Z GFDL, 12Z HWRF, and 12Z UKMET have all shifted northward today in contrast to the GFS and the Euro. This is likely due to the speed and interaction of an ULL (300 mb) that migrates from the Bahamas to the GOM over the next three days. This ULL weakens the upper level ridge enough to allow a more NW movement into the GOM. The two intensity/track models, both the HWRF and GFDL, bring the storm to a CAT 5 in the western caribbean. When a storm reaches that intensity, the upper levels (300 mb) become more of a factor in their steering than the mid-levels (500 mb). This may be one reason why the globals such as GFS & the Euro, which cannot discretize the intensity of the storm well, may be reflecting more of a southward bias at the moment. Just a theory at the moment. Clark may want to weigh into this situation in more detail.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 08:42 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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Actually, I don't have much more to add to that, Ron -- that's the jist of it.
Couple of other quick comments...
1) NHC: 100mph at 5pm, forecast for 140mph in the Caribbean. That's pretty reasonable.
2) Very good points made by dem05 about the Gulfstream aircraft and what it means to the track forecast. Don't have anything to add to it.
3) Most of the "early" 18z models did come a little north in the Gulf in the 4-5 day time frame, but not as far as the GFDL was earlier. I wouldn't put much stock in exact locations that far out even today.
4) Saw something from Steve about daytime convection versus the diurnal maximum -- at night in the tropics, the upper levels of the atmosphere cool off, enhancing the sea surface to upper level (truly outflow level) temperature gradient. This is known to enhance convection in general and enhance the efficiency of tropical systems in particular. There are other factors at play, but that's another part of it. Over land, heating during the day drives convection (the standard "CAPE" or available energy arguments) since the landmasses cool off much more significantly than bodies of water at night, counteracting any upper level cooling that may help enhance temperature gradients.
| LisaC |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 08:43 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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5 pm... status quo on movement. Strengthening but we knew that.
| aboz56 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 08:43 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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What effect, if any, do you expect Dean to have on the Destin, Florida area? I'm heading there on Saturday for vacation and am trying to plan ahead as well as possible.
Use the PM feature for questions like this, not the Main Page.
| Steve |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 08:48 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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>>What effect, if any, do you expect Dean to have on the Destin, Florida area?
Probably will be some elevated surf and maybe rip currents to watch out for. Otherwise, Destin is probably east of any future affects not directly tied to the Gulf Water. It's a waiting game now, but enjoy your vacation. If Dean passes as far south as it is progged to do, you'll proabably have some hot sunny beach days to look forward to IMHO.
But stay tuned anyway.
Steve
| aboz56 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 08:50 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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Quote:
>>What effect, if any, do you expect Dean to have on the Destin, Florida area?
Probably will be some elevated surf and maybe rip currents to watch out for. Otherwise, Destin is probably east of any future affects not directly tied to the Gulf Water. It's a waiting game now, but enjoy your vacation. If Dean passes as far south as it is progged to do, you'll proabably have some hot sunny beach days to look forward to IMHO.
But stay tuned anyway.
Steve
Will do, Steve, thanks.
| neospaceblue |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 09:09 PM |
.gif)
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Funny Weather Channel Goof
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When the tropical update came on at 4:50, they put Dean's pressure at 920 mb and the guy up there had said 920 mb too. But when the 5:00 update came up it was corrected.
If Dean really was at that low pressure, we'd be screwed big time.
| neospaceblue |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 09:17 PM |
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Category 5 Dean?
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Here is my forecast
_11 PM Thursday -- 110 mph
_11 AM Friday -- 120 mph
_11 PM Friday -- 135 mph
_11 AM Saturday -- 145 mph
_11 AM Sunday -- 160 mph
_11 AM Monday -- 140 mph
_11 AM Tuesday -- 125 mph -- INLAND
| SeaMule |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 09:23 PM |
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how would our met's rate the size of Dean so far?
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It appears to me to be spending energy getting larger in convective area...and therefore more dangerous. There was talk initially that it was a small cyclone...don't think so now.
I heard a newsman say that the part of the caribbean Dean-0 is headed to is the warmest waters on the planet...as far as oceanic deep heat content. Well, I don't know about that...but perhaps that's the point Dean explodes to it's full potential.
I wouldn't call the GOM bathtub anything but MORE fuel for the fire...
| rmbjoe1954 |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 09:23 PM |
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Re: Category 5 Dean?
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The models are having a heck of a time but kudos to the NHC for being as accurate as it has been.
I hope the islanders have prepared accordingly- but I see no reason to think this storm can go the way of Katrina. It does appear that the area of concern down the road has got to be from Mexico to Texas. I mean, the speed of this thing is awesome. I would not have believed that crusing at 23 MPH would allow Dean to whip up to 100MPH winds.
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 09:24 PM |
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Re: GFDL
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Quote:
I think there is little question on the importance of the Gulfstream IV upper level wind sampling that will be occurring. This information is going to paint a much better picture of what is going on and should help the future model runs out quite a bit.
I am aware that the Gulfstream IV run is scheduled for 17/00z. What I am curious about is at what point in time will ALL the models/suites have this new information run through them and which advisory tomorrow will reflect this?
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 10:00 PM |
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Re: Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles
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Dean is a category 2 Hurricane and getting stronger, could possibly outwit the great Hurricane Wilma (2005).. sounds crazy but temperatures in the Gulf Of Mexico are extremely warm. Hurricanes Allen (1980), and Gilbert (1988), and Ivan (2004) are similiar to Dean in a way. I still believe the Upper Level Low to the east of Florida will not weaken much and could push Dean more north than it's forecast. tonight as the NOAA aircraft is out there, they will send the information to the computer models and tonight will be the night to finally find out where Dean is headed. Gulf Of Mexico, Mexcio and away from the USA, or could it swing and hit Florida? There is also the possibility that the upcoming High Pressure System that will steer Dean in a few days could weaken a tad and bring Dean to anybody on the Gulf Coast. Those are the scenarios and it's because of the dissagreement of all the models that is making me hold my new 3rd run track. I will make it soon as I find out what these models will agree on.. folks it's very crucial.. Dean could be a category 5 hurricane once it reaches the very warm waters of both the Carribean Sea and Gulf of Mexico... last to note that a situation like Katrina is not out of the realm. Everybody needs to moniter this storm, even Florida.. it's still possible that Dean could curve up the west coast of FL, it's still has'nt reached the Islands just yet. Dean will pound them tommorow as a Major Hurricane in my opinion.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 10:12 PM |
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Re: Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles
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It looks to me like the ULL over the Bahamas is elongating SW to NE rather than moving to the west. Looks sort of like a "squeeze play" between the high pressure systems. I would expect the tracking to go slightly right of where they are now. Instead of trying to pinpoint an area (impossible right now), ask yourself these questions if you are on the gulf or atlantic coast...where is the hurricane evacuation route for my area? Where would I evacuate to? (inland hotels fill up very quickly). Do I have supplies necessary set aside if I have to stay put. Be prepared before everyone is scrambling to do the same thing at the last minute.
| stevie |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 10:17 PM |
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Re: Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles
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Well stated Allen, I think Erin was a good wake up call for Houston residents along with other coastal residents. After evacuating from Rita many I feel are not paying much attention to their safety during hurricane season. Today parts of southern and eastern Harris county as well as western counties near Houston recieved 8-9 '' of rain. This minor storm has really slowed Houston down today(with 1 fatality). Maybe this will help officials and local Mets to get the message out about the potential threat of Dean. Most here in Houston have experienced the flooding, but not high winds as Alicia(24 yrs ago) was the last major storm to hit the area.
| bamffl |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 10:51 PM |
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Re: Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles
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I'll probably get in trouble for this, but from the front page:
..."Erin is spawning weak tornadoes in Texas, along with the rain."
What in the heck is a "weak" tornado?
Sorry, couldn't resist...
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 10:59 PM |
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Re: Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles
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Well there's an F0 tornado which will maybe knock down small trees and do minor cosmetic damage.
And then there's a F5 tornado which will successfully relocate your house. An F-0 or an F-1 is a fairly weak
tornado when compared with anything stronger.
| D3m3NT3DVoRT3X |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 11:07 PM |
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Re: Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles
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Good post allan the models have swung from mexico to north carolina over the past 48 hrs i'll feel much better once the data from the gulstream jet gets placed in the models the 00z runs
btw dean went from 50mph winds yestrerday to 100 right now.... wow
| Pablo712 |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 11:09 PM |
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Re: Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles
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Data in this Buoy looks strange....likely riped apart some hours ago...
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 11:17 PM |
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Re: Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles
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Additional explanation for why the Upper Level Low over the Bahamas is not moving as much as expected:
In my previous post, I indicated that yes, while the ridge to the north of Dean is nudging at the Upper Level Low over the Bahamas from the east, the high over the Missippi Valley/GA (Which extended southward into the northern half of the Gulf and the Western Guld Coast States) was also pushing back from the west. Inhibiting the Bahamas Cutoff Low and southward extending TUTT like feature from retrograding westward as quickly as indicated.
It does look reasonably apparent that Erin may have helped to pump up the intensity of the Missippi Valley Ridge and may be continuing to do so. I would like to revisit a post from Clark that he made yesterday... Also, here is a repost of the Water Vapor Link for the Entire Atlantic Basin: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html
Quote from a FL Hurricane Poster:
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About the only way that Erin could affect dean is if it weakens the high pressure system developing over the central US that is going to cut Dean off from an east coast hit and help force it into the gulf.
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Clark's Answer:
Well, it could also help to strengthen that high pressure ridge (due to the warming at upper levels from its convective outflow), resulting in impacts on the pattern further to the east. It's kinda like the case of a recurving system leaving behind a weakness to cause other systems to recurve days later, except the reverse scenario. Granted, in this case, it's likely to be a very small impact -- but probably still a noticeable one.
(Edit -- on retrospect, I see that this also helps answer the question posted by "tumbleman" in the second post in this thread. If they would like more info on this, please reply and explain.)
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 11:23 PM |
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Re: Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles
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Quote:
Additional explanation for why the Upper Level Low over the Bahamas is not moving as much as expected...
So, what's your take on the answer? Are the low and the remnant of Erin going to have an impact, do you think, and if so, what impact?
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 11:35 PM |
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Re: Category 5 Dean?
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If this was to affect the Gulf Coast states what time frame are we looking at? Know that is still a big "if" since Dean has a long way
to go. Sure is a pretty storm.
Erin sent only cooler temperatures and a little rain our way but flooded parts of Houston.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Aug 16 2007 11:53 PM |
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41101 Buoy
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The data on the 41101 buoy looks strange because the Eye of Dean, or very close to the eye passed directly over the buoy.
5pm EDT position was 14.0N/ 56.5W
Buoy is at 14.6 N/ 56.2 W
That's roughly 36 miles from the center of Dean.
Buoy 41101 pressure and windspeed plot.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=41101&meas=wdpr&uom=E
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 17 2007 12:02 AM |
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Re: 41101 Buoy
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Just started recording the radar image from Martinique at http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?23
GFDL went back west, I noticed, it'll be interesting to see how the GSIV data affects the next model run, if little or not.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Fri Aug 17 2007 12:08 AM |
Re: Erin makes landfall in Texas, Dean strengthens and nears Lesser Antilles
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Well, I don't have a hard pat answer for your question at this time, and I would really like to give credit to Clark's post forgiving me this theory...so if I happen to go astray/wrong, I hope he sets me straight.
At this time, Erin is no longer a tropical cyclone. However, the remanants of Erin continue to be that of a warm core low pressure system. Until the remanants of Erin phase out, it will continue to transport warm air and moisture to the upper levels. At this time, Erin's remenants are doing just that. It is this warm air and moisture that I conclude is pumping up the ridge (Keeping it strong enough) to have a blocking effect on the Upper Level Low over the Bahamas. In other words, keeping the ridge strong enough to prevent the Bahamas low from moving westward as quickly as expected by the models.
Itis tough to say when Erin will phase out for sure. In general, I am taking the entire interaction of the Atlantic Ridge, the Bahama's Low, the Gulf States Ridge and other weather features on a 24 hour by 24 hour basis. Now is as good of time as ever to sound like a broken record that we've all heard before.Models are not perfect science here when looking 3,4 or 5 days out folks. However, it is the best tool that the professionals have in making educated decisions. If you all remember correctly, when Dean First developed, the models had a pretty good handleon taking this storm across the NE corner of the Leewards and back into the SW Atlantic. That did not happen and the current 5 day forecast may likely be just as inaccurate, Likewise, it may be very accurate (just as we've seen on many previous storms). For now, do not put all ofyour eggs in one basket on the day 3,4,5 model plots. Dean is far enough away that everyone can be in a monitoring phase (on a 24 by 24 hour basis) and be aware that the upper level low over the Bahama's may have an effect on Dean after all if it continues to retrograde as slowly as it is right now. I know, lot'sof unanswered questions, but this is the best way to approach the future of Dean right now.