MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 07:41 AM |
Watching Category FIVE Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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11PM EDT 2 September 2007 Update
Felix maintains a 145kt, or 165mph wind. The pressure is being estimated by NHC to 930mb, or a 4mb drop. However, it should be noted that the recent mission was canceled mid-way through due to a scary run-in with a combination of hail and Extreme Turbulance. Extreme Turbulance is defined by NHC as inability to control the aircraft, which is extremely dangerous to crew and is thus quite understandable that the mission was prematurely cut short. The Central Dense Overcast has, in the last 1.5 hours, appeared to have warmed slightly and this may be an early indication of system structural changes.
Some other notables and statistics:
Located near 13.9N/73.9W
Movement is 280 degrees, or close to west-northwest at 18mph
The government of Honduras has issued a Hurricane Watch from Limon to the Honduras/Nicaragua border.
More to come...
8PM EDT 2 September 2007 Update
Felix has become a Category 5 hurricane with 165mph winds....
Recon found a dramatic pressure drop, down to 934 mb. Ambient pressures are high, so with that it supports a rather high windspeed even at that pressure...
Recon found a flight level windspeed of roughly 163knots... Which puts surface winds (about 90%) at 165MPH.
It is heading still mostly west, and northwest. It apparently is still strengthening, Recon ran into enough turbulence and graupel (hail) to abort the mission after the last drop, which is rare event for the hurricane hunters. (I'm sure it's an interesting story -- a note from the Special discussion says, "A dropsonde released in the southwest quadrant landed in the northeast quadrant." -- lightning was also found in all four quadrants of the hurricane. Which is reserved normally for extremely rapid intensifying systems that still aren't done intensifying.)
This makes it the second category five hurricane in less than a month, and Felix's structure is still very good going over very high water temperatures.
The hurricane force winds are surprisingly narrow only extending about 25 miles from the center, so this is a tightly wound system miles from the center. It is likely to undergo some sort of eyewall replacement at some point, but when is in doubt. Conditions are about as perfect as they can get for the hurricane right now. Extremely high water temperatures, good air environment and outflow, and no sign of dry air intrusion.
More to come soon.
4:42PM 2 September 2007 Update
Felix is now a category 4 hurricane with winds of 140MPH, pressure is down to 956, and conditions continue to be near optimal for continued strengthening. This has been an extremely rapid deepening of a system that was just a tropical depression about 38 hours ago.
3:25PM 2 September 2007 Update
Felix continues to intensify at a rapid rate. Recent Recon has measure a 132kt flight level wind. 10% reduction from that level brings a little less than 120kts winds to the surface, or close to 135mph. It is likely that Felix is a Category 4 hurricane at this time, although awaiting official declaration. We will know soon enough! Another interesting observation reported in the Vortex Message is that the eye has evolved into a stadium structure, a characteristic reserved usually for intense tropical cyclones.
1:50PM 2 September 2007 Update
Felix has been upgraded to a Category 3 storm with winds of 125MPH and a pressure of 964mb. Recon is not finished flying through the system yet, but Felix appears to be currently in a full rapid strengthening mode, and about to enter even warmer water. It has definitely has the potential to be Felix the Cat 4 later tonight or tomorrow.
1:45PM 2 September 2007 Update
From reports from recon flight inside Felix, and Satellite estimates (Dvorak T Numbers of around 6.0 which equate to roughly 125-130MPH winds) , it appears Hurricane Felix is now a major hurricane, and strengthening quite rapidly at that. Pressures are down to roughly 964mb. The National Hurricane Center's 2PM Update should reflect major status.
11:30AM 2 September 2007 Update
Category 2 Hurricane Felix is still moving west northwest at around 18 miles per hour. It has strengthened a bit, and now an eye is visible on satellite imagery.
98L: is persisting, but not developing much today. We're still watching that.
A disturbance off the coast of Georgia is worth watching for development too, and could potentially become a tropical depression later it will need to be watched because of the close proximity to land. This system won't be moving all that much because steering currents are weak, and already is dumping lots of rain on parts of eastern Georgia and South Carolina.
From Tip:
The system off the Georgia coastline was originally triggered by a stalling frontal zone. Originally a baroclinic system altogether, this now appears to be entering a phase-transition because the air mass north to south through the axis of weak rotation is becoming less differentiable. This, while convection persists, needs to be monitored so long as we have a general southwest wind field beneath the axis of frontalysis and east-northeast wind above. That provides a nature cyclonic convergence.
Two key factors:
* Shear remains low in the deep layer analysis. Moreover, the upper level winds are somewhat divergent while being light in that area. This can be seen using
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-avn.html ..and clicking the radial button that states, HDW-High, which overlays the wind field on the image. There is no floater assigned to this feature but NHC has given it a mention in the 11am so perhaps an Invest is in the works. Given to some cyclonic presentation emerging a circulation is likely in the process of forming and an Invest would have more success at that time.
* Oceanic heat content; ample availability in the area as is suggested via:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/maps/sst/2007090200_sst_AB.png Additionally, we all know the Gulf Stream is in that area and that supplies an artery pumping rich fuel directly into any fledging system. Sometimes if there is an offshore component, cooler shelf water can upwell along the immediate Coast in that vicinity. That does not appear to be the case now as buoy data indicates temperatures ranging between 81 and almost 90F!
Whatever develops there is likely to move very slowly and be there for awhile. The larger scale synoptic evolution does not provide for very many steering signals. There is a ridge tending to develop surface and aloft, moving off the Mid Atlantic and New England states and into the NW Atlantic, from day-3 through day-6. That should help pin whatever is there in place, or perhaps even push it SE or SW. Some of the models actually do suggest that occurring, showing a slow but gradual development only drifting around in that area.
More discussion on the system off the Georgia coast can be found here.
Original Update
Felix is moving north of the Netherlands Antilles islands this morning, as a solid category 2 hurricane, it will likely strengthen some more as it moves away from the islands. Possibly quite a bit more as it appears the storm is in a very good position for strengthening.
The future track still suggests that Honduras may be dealing with a brush of this system later in the week, and all eyes from there,including Nicaragua, Belize, and the Yucatan of Mexico should keep a strong eye out. It does not look like Felix will have any United States impact, the ridge is strong, and there is nothing currently that could move it more northward.
98L is not looking as good today as it did yesterday, but the system could still develop later on as there is a circulation with it. If it survives the latest round of unfavorable conditions, it still has a chance to develop.
If you would like to take a guess at where Felix will go, and may not have exact reasoning for it, let us know here
Radar Loops
{{radarlink|jax|Jacksonville FL}}
{{radarlink|clx|Charleston, SC}}
{{radarlink|ltx|Wimington, NC}}
Netherland Antilles/Aruba Radar 1
Netherland Antilles/Aruba Radar 2
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Felix|06|6|2007|1|Tropical Storm Felix}}
{{StormLinks|98L|98|7|2007|2|98L (East Atlantic Wave)}}
| CoconutCandy |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 08:00 AM |
| Attachment |
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Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane
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Felix is definitely engaging in a major intensification cycle this morning.
A special 3:30am AST update from the NHC relayed that the Hurricane Hunters are now reporting sustained winds of 100 mph, ratcheting Felix up to Cat 2 status.
And, since the satellite has come out of eclipse last night, it appears that inner core convection is steadily expanding (and deepening), although most of the deepest convection is clearly confined to the eastern semi-circle. Not too sure why this is so, as the system is not experiencing any shear. Any ideas here, Mets? Morphological considerations?
But the lop-sided eyewall convection scenario is apparently not inhibiting steady strengthening, as Felix is now at solid Cat 2 strength, with no end in sight at this point.
Here's what the good folks at the NHC had to say about Felix's Surge in intensity, in their 5am advisory:
>> "FELIX HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED OVERNIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MEASURED MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 93 KT AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 984 MB DURING THE LAST EYE PENETRATION ... IN ADDITION, AN EYEWALL DROPSONDE MEASURED SURFACE WINDS OF 85 KT DERIVED FROM THE MEAN WIND IN THE LOWER LAYER OF THE SOUNDING. BASED ON THESE DATA THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 85 KT.
WHILE THE EYE HAS NOT YET BECOME DISCERNIBLE IN CONVENTIONAL GOES INFRARED IMAGERY...IT IS CLEARLY EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY FROM CURACAO AND IN PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A TRMM OVERPASS."
And, since the time I wrote about the 'lop-sided' eyewall, just in that brief time the eyewall has undergone a dramatic rapid transformation and is now a complete eyewall again with a tight spiral and massively expanding eyewall convection in the NE semi-circle bursting forth. (See satellite IR link, below.) Hmmm ... A harbinger of further rapid intensification?? Any ideas here, Mets?
Beautiful is the splendid view of the 1km zoomed image of the first visible daylight satellite picture on NRL's website.
Please view the attachment, from the NRL website, to visually follow along with the narrative.
With the low sun angle, it shows well the developing dimple of the eye, like an inverted cone, as this 'inner eye cloudiness' is being evaporated by the ever-increasing warm temperatures, likely to reveal a clear eye within a few hours.
Also interesting, with the low sun angle, you can clearly see a partial ring of very deep thunderstorms in the eyewall's south quadrant, of what's known as 'convective turret penetrations', as the tops of these strong storms literally overshoot the tropopause, where the stratosphere begins. Only extremely strong thunderstorms can do that; most just 'flatten out' into the characteristic anvil-shape when they hit the tropopause. There are 100+ mph winds blowing below those storms, with even higher winds at "flight level".
Meanwhile, the radars from Venezuela, picking up the eyewall quite nicely, show the strongest reflectivity in the south quad, which correlates well with the visible satellite image of the eyewall. Is this interesting to anyone else?
The good news is that the official forecast track appears to have been adjusted slightly left, or southward again, apparently based on thinking that the ridge will remain intact and strong enough to continue to steer Felix generally west or west-northwest.
The bad news is that Felix is now expected to strengthen to at least 125 Kts., or 145 mph, before landfall, possibly in Belize, after grazing the tip of Honduras.
>> "ALL FACTORS POINT TO CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED UPWARD MAINLY TO REFLECT THE OVERNIGHT STRENGTHENING JUST OBSERVED...AND SO IS HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.
FELIX APPEARS ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE CARIBBEAN...BUT HOW MUCH LAND IT TRAVERSES BEYOND 48 HOURS MAKES THE LONG-RANGE INTENSITY FORECAST VERY UNCERTAIN."
No repeat of Hurricane Mitch, thankfully. Although Felix *might* become as large and even as strong as Mitch, the subtropical ridge to its' north should keep the monster storm trucking right along at a steady clip. Mitch, as you may remember, moved to a position just north of Honduras, and then weak steering currents kept massive and powerful Mitch meandering for days in roughly the same area, unleashing torrential rains and causing massive mudslides and the tragic loss of thousands of lives. Felix will be severe, even catastrophic, where he makes landfall, but at least it'll be over in a day or less, if anything 'good' could be said about the otherwise bad news for those in the path of Felix's Fury!
Well, it's nearly 2am in Hawaii (8 am Florida) so I think I'll close here and turn it over to the 'day crew' to discuss Felix to your hearts' content. I've a feeling that I'll wake up to a Major Cat 3 Hurricane, by the time the sun rises again in Hawaii.
6 hour IR loop:
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off
6 hour Visible loop:
http://weather.hawaii.edu/satellite/sata...amp;overlay=off
(Remember to click 'Rock' and slow it down just a tad, for best results.)
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 10:26 AM |
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Re: Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane
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Felix is quite impressive this morning. This scenerio is beginning to remind me of Katrina-Rita ("the twin sisters"). First, t
here was Dean and now his twin brother Felix. Looks like there will be nothing to stop Felix from becoming a major hurricane.
| Ron Basso |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 12:04 PM |
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Re: Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane
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The key to this 4 to 5 day forecast and I won't speculate beyond that is the strength of the 500 mb trough over the central states in 5 days. This mornings GFS had that trough a little stronger than yesterdays runs, all the way down from the northern plains to TX. This feature, as well as the actual forward motion of Felix, are the two key variables to this forecast. One run that bothered me, and I'm sure it was just an anomalous one, was the 06Z HWRF. This model this year was introduced as on par with the GFDL - we'll see after Felix. Anyway, it stalls the storm just east of Belize and then slowly tracks it north along the east coast of the Yucatan. If this storm slows considerably or stalls, in the NW caribbean, then we are in for some major changes with the future track. I don't think that is likely now but still a reasonable possibility. We have to remember that the models are not real good when troughs interact with ridges because the timing is so important to directional movement (i.e. Charley). I don't see a dramatic situation like Charley but again we need to see how sharp that 500 mb trough becomes on Sept 7th.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 12:23 PM |
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Re: Felix Strengthens to Solid Cat 2 Hurricane
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The models are pretty straight forward and such was the case with Dean...a turn wnw towards Belieze and south of Cozumel and into the BOC but with the ridge eroding over the NW gulf and begining to dominate or future threat off Florida in 2-3 days...a turn more NW toward Tampico and north to the TX -Mx boarder. Felix should become a Cat 3 tonight and possilby a 4 but not sure how much Dean still turned up some waters near Belieze. Note:98l should be a lessar concern compared to off Florida.
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 12:54 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Wow, look on the visible satpic! I bet everything, that it´s a major hurricane! Let´s wait for the next recon flight. Should be a bad surprise!
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 01:03 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Extremely good IR presentation. The eye has become very well defined on both IR and Visible in the last couple hours. Recon is in the storm now and released a dropsonde about a half hour ago; we should get a vortex recon soon.
Modis overpass should be posted in about 3 hours (it will be from 17:45Z) on the rapidfire gallery. Might get a really good high res visible of the storm from that.
I expect a major hurricane at the 2pm update.
Edit: Recon just passed through the eyewall and found 122kt Flight Level winds (10-second average from HDOB data). Downshifted to surface (90%) brings it in at 126mph surface winds, or a strong Category 3 storm. We will see if NHC upgrades it soon.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 01:49 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Agree with all that has been said with regards to Felix's organization. To conclude that Felix is now bombing and is a major hurricane is a foregone conclusion at this point. It's likely going to be largely a matter of internal structure, interactions with land, whether or not upwelling of any significance occurs, as to whether or not his first landfall is at 3, 4, or 5. To hope that interaction with the ULL to his NW will do the trick, while possible, is simply looking less and less possible. If anything, upper-level winds have become only all the more favorable for further strengthening. Indeed, the CIMSS automated Dvorak intensity estimate already has Felix running a CI of 5.4 based on the 3-hour average, but 6.6 raw.
Switching gears a bit, it's becoming hard to argue against the likelihood of an invest tag soon being hoisted on the low of non-tropical origins hugging the SE coast just off of Georgia, as it takes on more and more tropical characteristics, and appears to be breaking with the frontal umbilical cord.
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 01:51 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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200 PM AST SUN SEP 02 2007
...FELIX STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH...205
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...
AND FELIX COULD BECOME A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE REPORTED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 964 MB...28.47 INCHES.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 01:54 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Here's recon:
806
URNT12 KNHC 021746
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/17:24:40Z
B. 13 deg 22 min N
070 deg 57 min W
C. 700 mb 2777 m
D. 120 kt
E. 46 deg 010 nm
F. 138 deg 122 kt
G. 048 deg 013 nm
H. 964 mb
I. 8 C/ 3048 m
J. 16 C/ 3043 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C20
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF305 0806A FELIX OB 05
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 17:21:10 Z
SFC CNTR 050/07 NM FROM FL CNTR
---
As per the non-tropical off Georgia, I sure hope the CMC is overblowing the system as usual!
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 01:54 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Folks, while we admire the eye-candy that Felix has become... A tid-bit to keep in mind.
Along the 75W range there is currently an antecedent (prior to Felix's arrival) region of somewhat anomalously high oceanic heat content. The following link nicely shows a region of approximately +2 sigma values and Felix is about to pass right over that with nearly ideal deep layer, non-inhibitory development parameters.
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/sst2.png
It is quite plausible that Felix is heading for upper category destiny and may do so with a bit of rapidity. This is currently in a rapid intensification phase -- it would appear. Though that is not an official call, it is imo.
Also, I have put together some comments regarding the area of disturbed weather just off the SE Coast. This can found over in the 2007 Storm Forum, if anyone is interested...
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 03:05 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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eye-candy? lol... this is about a 8hr loop of Felix from sunrise til a tad just a bit ago... Just amazing to see how rapid he is growing... while on Hurricane force winds extend out to about 15 miles from center... it will expand over time... and i don't think its going to stop anytime soon. Like others have pointed... more favorable conditions are ahead. (sadly i think this has the potential to of becoming another record breaker/retired system at the end of the year)
16 Frames VIS
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 03:19 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Ok, we have a new recon. Note the "stadium effect" comment:
301
URNT12 KNHC 021917
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/18:54:20Z
B. 13 deg 29 min N
071 deg 25 min W
C. 700 mb 2703 m
D. 95 kt
E. 268 deg 008 nm
F. 356 deg 114 kt
G. 268 deg 007 nm
H. 957 mb
I. 8 C/ 3060 m
J. 16 C/ 3050 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C12
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 01 nm
P. AF305 0806A FELIX OB 12
MAX FL WIND 122 KT NE QUAD 17:21:10 Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 132 KT NE QUAD 18:57:10 Z
SFC CNTR WITHIN 5NM OF FL CNTR
STADIUM EFFECT
AL06 2007
And here he is:
Click for Full Res version
Edit: moved image from NASA to my site so I don't abuse their bandwidth
==
Can anyone confirm my read of the eyewall dropsonde? Looks to me like it might be category 4 from the dropesonde. I don't have a decoding app, so I'm manually reading it and might be reading the wrong lines.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 03:38 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Quote:
Ok, we have a new recon. Note the "stadium effect" comment:
Can anyone confirm my read of the eyewall dropsonde? Looks to me like it might be category 4 from the dropesonde. I don't have a decoding app, so I'm manually reading it and might be reading the wrong lines.
Yes, I just placed an update on the Main Page...
132kts at 700mb level extrapolates to approximately 120kts at the surface, or close to 135mph doing the standard conversions. That is Category 4. I have/had to also mention that NHC has not formally declared this a Cat 4, but the numbers are real -- it is highly likely they will either mention this via an intermediate statement, or they will upgrade this officially at 5pm.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 03:42 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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It Seems Felix has strenghthened to a Catagory Three Now
http://www.comcast.net/news/index.jsp?cat=GENERAL&fn=/2007/09/02/753646.html&cvqh=itn_felix
Looks like we may have another Dean?
We've gone beyond Category 3 with Felix as the new Recon fixes confirm.
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 04:05 PM |
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what about the system off the Georgia coast?
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Hi,
Does the system off the Georgia present a danger for East Central Florida, and if yes, within what timeframe?
Thanks!
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 04:11 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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What does "stadium effect" mean?
| Climate Aficionado |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 04:13 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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What does "stadium effect" mean?
Go watch the US open on TV. You'll get it.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 04:17 PM |
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Re: what about the system off the Georgia coast?
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Quote:
Hi,
Does the system off the Georgia present a danger for East Central Florida, and if yes, within what timeframe?
Thanks!
It is far too early to assess any risks to specific areas... We do not even have an Invest on this, although that may take place before too much longer given to the fact that rotation is clearly discernable and where there is rotation, tends to be a circulation.
Models are all over the place and will not perform adequately until they really have something in their initializing.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 04:17 PM |
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Re: what about the system off the Georgia coast?
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Quote:
Hi,
Does the system off the Georgia present a danger for East Central Florida, and if yes, within what timeframe?
Thanks!
From my knowledge, and by looking off of the radar, there are a few area's in East Central Florida that should be on the look out for tornadoes, strong winds and severe thunderstorms. Whether this is caused from the storm system off of Georgia or not, that I do not know. You may want to ask someone who is more experienced in weather. The link below shows the areas that are experiencing bad weather caused from thunderstorms.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=N1P&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
Also, this system is still forming off of Georgia, so give it a day or two and maybe people will know what to expect from this system. Watch it closely, and moniter it, and keep an eye on the forum. They will let you known when this area could cause potential harm.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 04:18 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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I see the blog has been mute on 98l for awhile. I know its coughing a bit, with shear and dry air, but if it holds together, this might (again might) be the first storm to hit the CONUS later in the week. It has a lot to go through, but it seems invests lately have survived bigger problems.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 04:19 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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I'll ignore the one liner rule since Stadium Effect is a valid question.
I'll also ignore the reply... just this one time. But I'm watching.
Stadium effect is a near perfectly formed Hurricane. The side of the Eyewall are nearly vertical or slope gently out. Similar to the Goodyear Blimp views of a football game.
Except Recon is not on top of the stadium... they are in the stadium.
Another view would be to look straight down at a doughnut laying on a table.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 04:21 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Looking at the current radar system it looks as though to be the reason for the severe storms that I was talking about in my earlier post (2 posts ago) Looking at the radar, it looks as though it is trying to form into a depression or a storm system, and it now appears to be rotating the way a hurricane would, not a cyclone (however I could be wrong) But it looks to be an overall healthy system that is forming. We will just have to keep a close watch on this storm systym over the next few days.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=CLX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 04:22 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Quote:
What does "stadium effect" mean?
There is no formal definition in the AMS Glossary but it refers just as it sounds, like a studium... Basically, the eye-wall structure is wider in diameter the higher you go up the column of rotation.
The cause is perhaps too complex to discuss here.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 04:31 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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here's some photos from Hurricane Katrina... If you were directly sitting in the very center... and spun all the way around... it would be like sitting in a closed stadium?
www.aoc.noaa.gov/Photos_Hurr_Katrina.html
| DougBaker |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 04:48 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Felix is cat 4
000
WTNT31 KNHC 022039
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
...FELIX CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...NOW A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...
| flahurricane |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 04:53 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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I thought this was interesting in the 5pm NHC disccusion.
"THIS CORRESPONDS TO A FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
A RATE OF 3.4 MB PER HOUR OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS
ONE OF THE MORE RAPID DEEPENING RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED. "
Can someone remember a recent hurricane strengthening as quickly or with a similar rate of pressure drop?
**I think rapid deepening would be better terminology. Sorry about the wordiness of my original post.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 05:03 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Quote:
I thought this was interesting in the 5pm NHC disccusion.
"THIS CORRESPONDS TO A FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
A RATE OF 3.4 MB PER HOUR OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS
ONE OF THE MORE RAPID DEEPENING RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED. "
Can someone remember a recent hurricane strengthening as quickly or with a similar rate of pressure drop?
2 years ago a Hurricane formed from a depression to category 5 in one night! The hurricane not only became a category 5, but became the most intense hurricane on record. Hurricane Wilma formed in October of 2005. That my friend is your answer.
Now Felix is a strong system, I wouldn't be surprised if Durinal Max made this a nice category 5 in the morning.
The area off my coastline has a good chace at forming.. so the CMC shows a 1938 Hurricane scenario.. most likely NOT happening but it is a possibility. Though a strong TS is not out of the realm.
Not quite. It went from a strong tropical storm to a category 4 hurricane in 24hr; from a weak hurricane to the most intense storm in a different 24hr period. -Clark
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 05:05 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Quote:
I thought this was interesting in the 5pm NHC disccusion.
"THIS CORRESPONDS TO A FALL IN CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
A RATE OF 3.4 MB PER HOUR OVER THE PAST 7 HOURS OR SO...WHICH IS
ONE OF THE MORE RAPID DEEPENING RATES WE HAVE OBSERVED. "
Can someone remember a recent hurricane strengthening as quickly or with a similar rate of pressure drop?
Hurricane Wilma set the gold standard for rapid intensification back in 2005, dropping around 100 mb in 24 hours and over 80 mb in 12 hours. I don't know if we will ever see anything like that again soon, but like Wilma at that time, Felix is a very compact storm and it could become quite intense before bottoming out. The jury is still out on the eventual track, but it looks like either Mexico or Central America is going to take another hard hit in a few days.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 05:09 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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i'm in line with thinking of felix as re-dean. it looks poised to do about the same thing to the yucatan. there is much noted uncertainty about it in the western gulf, with the modeling taking it further up. as much trouble as felix is likely to be, the thing emerging off the southeast coast is a much bigger deal.
i guess it will be dubbed 99L inside the next couple of forecast cycles. aside from shear getting it like the pair of invests that got scrubbed last week off the east coast, this one looks like it will handle whatever the upper winds might throw at it, and get expertly blocked by rebounding ridging later this week. as hot as the waters off the east coast are right now, courtesy of that brutal august heatwave, i'd be very concerned that it will develop and go ape. next question is, does it go jeanne on us or go ophelia on us. my big worry is fitow.
japan is about to get licked by a typhoon that got blocked and turned westward at fairly high latitude... and is riding all the way back in for a hit after looking like a slam-dunk recurvature earlier. i guess fitow is pronounced like fido, i dunno. what i do know is that if that weather teleconnection thing works out this time, we've got a backyard brew named gabrielle coming to thwack the southeast coast somewhere from the carolinas down to florida
if something comes up quickly, look for felix's neat wnw solution to evaporate as the ridge erodes and the systems casually interact via their upper features and the impressions they make on the ridge features around them. if homeboy off georgia (who would probably really be homegirl... gabrielle) starts spinning up it will probably do so in a hell of a hurry, with the waters running 29-32c out there. i am not liking what i'm seeing this afternoon; that thing off the southeast is something i thought might show up, but now that i'm seeing it it's a whole different ballgame.
98L is getting easterly shear and coming up slowly. it's slid sw, getting pressed down by low-level riding. not too terribly dry, but SAL is out there to some degree slowing it up. mostly it's the winds below 500 mb blowing along too fast while the lowest level trades are slowed up ahead of the next big wave. if that big wave doesn't overtake it, decently formed 98L should get its convection together and start rolling. it's going to be a close thing... but if it's out there, then another caribbean threat and maybe long-range concern is in place.
africa should keep spitting them out for the next couple of weeks. development emphasis starts to shift west as september gets late.
HF 2109z02september
*sorry to flahurricane for accidentally killing your post*
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 05:47 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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As HF alluded to, it's all a question of shear with the feature off of Georgia. If it doesn't get attacked by it and/or the dry, descending air that comes with it, that's our next region of concern as all of the other ingredients in place look quite favorable for development. Until the steering currents become better defined, it's all speculation on an eventual track.
98L is status quo but still there as it heads west. NHC didn't run the 12z late or 18z early models on it today, so they may not be thinking much of it any longer, but it's got a shot to do something as it passes 50W. It was at 14N yesterday, but the SW motion HF also alluded to now has it closer to 11N; that makes a significant difference for down the road *if* something were to come of it. We'll see.
Felix? It's approaching the warm core oceanic eddy mentioned in the 5p NHC discussion and as I hinted at last night. The most recent microwave imager pass I have -- from about 2p ET -- suggests a well-defined inner core without significant outer banding or signs of an outer eyewall trying to form. Granted, the resolution of that imager is not great, but it still does not give any hints at any oncoming eyewall cycle. It will be very, very intriguing to see what recon finds this evening in terms of intensity. Honduras looks to take a sideswipe from this one while Belize or the southern Quintana Roo area of the Yucatan looks to take the full brunt of a landfall in 3ish days.
| weatherguy08 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 05:47 PM |
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Re: Watching Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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I thought the most interesting part of the NHC Discussion is when they said, "THE EXACT FATE OF FELIX OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY
THAT A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. COULD ERODE THE RIDGE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WE ADVISE AGAINST PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS
ON THE EXACT NHC FORECAST TRACK AT 4 AND 5 DAYS."
You see the low forecast to "spawn" this trough on water vapor imagery over the Gulf of Alaska.
EDIT:
From the WFO Lake Charles, LA AFD:
"TOWARDS FRI INTO NEXT WEEKEND...ANOTHER TROF WILL SWING SE ACROSS
THE ROCKIES...AND HELP LIFT THE UPPER LOW/TROF EASTWARD OUT OF TX.
STILL VERY UNCLEAR HOW THIS MAY PLAY IN THE FUTURE TRACK OF FELIX...IF
IT EVEN EMERGES INTO THE S GULF. STILL WAY TOO EARLY TO CALL."
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 06:42 PM |
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Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Felix continues to rapidly strengthen as new Raw Dorvak T# is now 6.9 which would be 921mb and 161mph.. Of course we need the Hurricane Hunters to prove that.. in fact, IF it's still undergoing rapid development, I expect a greater number by 8 p.m. This is some storm, whoever gets it, will be catestrophic!
| weatherguy08 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 07:06 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Made a graphic displaying the low pressure over the northwestern Pacific that may develop a trough which would break down the ridge keeping Felix to the south. The image is based on the 02/2100z GOES West Full Disk and the HPC Surface Analysis from 02/1800z.
P.S. The 24, 48, 72, and 96 indicate the forecast times.
| nc_tropical_wx79 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 07:18 PM |
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Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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The area of interest off of the southeast coast is it going strong or has it weakened and will it be coming under high shear soon? Is the possibility still there for a TC to form or has the door for that closed?
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 07:21 PM |
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Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Based on the very latest HD recon data, pressure is down to around 940 mb with flight-level winds (136 gusting to 147 kts) supporting borderline cat 5 intensity. The onboard SFMR actually indicates even stronger winds at the surface, but I'm not sure what NHC will make of that data. There should be a vortex message coming shortly.
Edit: Still no vortex message yet, but a dropsonde in the eye recorded 936 mb.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 07:23 PM |
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Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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so much for worrying on upwelling from Dean... Felix seems to have really found his groove there and would love to know how strong he really is...
he also seems to be moving more wnw than earlier and wondering on that as he is still pretty far east and wondering if we need to look at the top half of the cone suddenly not the bottom half
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 07:57 PM |
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Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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163 knots at the surface level according to the SFMR!?
Wow. This is quite the spectacle.
| weather999 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 08:02 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Frankly, im not surprised that Felix is Cat. 4... recalling dean-there was a warm eddy south of hispanola that dean clipped-Felix passed very near/OVER this eddy (I have an image of the Aug. 16 carib sea water map in the attachment-If anyone can show me a link to the most recent images so i can bookmark the page, it would be greatly appreciated!)
If the latest recon (Extreme turbulence in NE eyewall, max sur. wind 163kt!-not sure that this is completely about this though)/dropsonde info is indeed correct-and Felix is continuing to strengthen, I would think we could have yet another Cat V monster (if an ERC does not take place) later tonight
Update-Wunderground has felix as 145kt monster... Officially Cat 5!
And from the NHC Discussion:
"BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND
GROUPEL THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING
ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX."
I've never heard of a mission being aborted-is this the first time? I believe in Wilma they climbed higher to lessen turbulence-but was it aborted?
The CDO is extremely symmetrical when viewed on satellite, IMO, Dvorak shows it best.
Finally, I a mistake from the E. Pac. TWO:
"THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION GIL IS LOCATED ABOUT
925 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
REGENERATION OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED."
Gil=remnant low forecast to dissipate-lol.
| flahurricane |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 08:03 PM |
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Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007
...FELIX NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...
REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 08:04 PM |
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Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Felix has much better symmetry than Dean and has had the trademark CAT 5 white ring cloud tops all day. http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/
It was obvious this morning Felix was destined to be CAT 5 fairly quickly.
I believe Felix will bottom out at a lower pressure than Dean.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 08:11 PM |
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Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Sounds like the plane took a major beating during the recent center fix:
BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND GROUPEL [sic] THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING
ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX.
Graupel are small frozen water droplets, like small hail stones. Flying through 160 knot-driven small hail stones would be a pretty stressful experience, for both the plane and for the people on board.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 08:32 PM |
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Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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i would expect the p-3 would have been pushed around alot on this storm, which is in rapid growth right now... and has a small core/center... p-3's are slower and smaller than the AF C-130 Aircraft... but with the frozen precip., i bet they got a few dents in them... can't wait to see the pictures they post online from the flight!!!
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 08:32 PM |
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Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Quote:
Sounds like the plane took a major beating during the recent center fix:
BECAUSE OF THE EXTREME TURBULENCE AND GROUPEL [sic] THAT THE AIRCRAFT EXPERIENCED...THE MISSION IS BEING
ABORTED AND THE AIRCRAFT IS RETURNING TO ST. CROIX.
Graupel are small frozen water droplets, like small hail stones. Flying through 160 knot-driven small hail stones would be a pretty stressful experience, for both the plane and for the people on board.
Absolutely! They can use Divorak to prove this is a daisy before they risk pushing up anyway. We do not want to hear about any crews safety being compromised any more than the inherent risk that is involved with this invaluable form of data retrieval.
That being said, I strongly suspect that they took a beating and are a bit thunderstruck at the prospect of doing any more activity on this tonight.
At 165mph, this is just 20mph shy of Wilma, btw, which may help put this into perspective. And, this system is still not yet finished intensifying given to the fact that there are 0 (that's NO) mitigators readily observable at this hour; Felix is about to traverse a +2sigma warm eddy anomaly, too, which is just absolutely....incredible!
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 08:35 PM |
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Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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notice to that they reported "LIGHTNING ALL QUADS".... also on the last flight into the center... NOAA2 actually spent a few extra mins in the center.. say about 10-15mins... went in at about 10,000ft, and flew around in a circle to down to 7,000ft and went out...... the flight path is kinda different from all other normal flight paths... i post an image in a few mins...
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 08:45 PM |
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Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Felix is just WOW! One of those systems I look at and can't believe. Which even doing this for 12 years, still surprises me.
| punkyg |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 08:47 PM |
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Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Any one think that Felix is starting to take on a more annuler look?
do you think he'll be a annuler hurricane.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 08:56 PM |
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Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Quote:
Any one think that Felix is starting to take on a more annuler look?
do you think he'll be a annuler hurricane.
You could probably have done this type or research your self....but I have a moment:
Wikipedia defines them as having large, symmetric eyes surrounded by a ring of intense convection.
This has a small eye, but it does carry that ring characteristic with striking clarity!
The write-up also cautions that many strong storms take on similarities to annular hurricanes in some of the criteria. That may be more what is taking place here.
The term and science of annular hurricanes are relatively new in the lexicon and knowledge of the field, so not much is yet understood about their behavior.
Right now it does not appear to be an annular system and since not much is known about them, it is virtually impossible to predict whether this will evolve into one. Isabel was an annular system at one time and if you look at sat pictures of her during that:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Hurricane_Isabel.JPG
Courtacy Wikipedia!
...you can see some definite difference to this system at this time.
| Lysis |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 09:08 PM |
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Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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Quote:
Any one think that Felix is starting to take on a more annuler look?
do you think he'll be a annuler hurricane.
The visually awesome infrared image Mike posted lends itself to the "annular" appearance you are seeing, mostly due to the cloudtops.
If you look at the regular visual loops, Felix still exhibits classic spiraling rain bands.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 09:09 PM |
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Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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i thought this was pretty neat
A DROPSONDE RELEASED IN THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT LANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT...AND THIS DROP YIELDED A
SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 139 KT BASED ON THE LOWEST 150 M LAYER AVERAGE.
BASED ON THESE DATA...THE PEAK SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE AT
LEAST 145 KT. AN EYE SONDE MEASURED A SURFACE PRESSURE OF 936 MB
WITH SURFACE WINDS OF 24 KT.
so its quite possible that the pressure was even lower, with the 30 mph winds at the surface?
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 09:29 PM |
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Re: Watching Category 4 Hurricane Felix and Area off Georgia
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i wondered on the shape of it earlier today also... annular storms if i remember right from the one that came near hawaii react differently than normal storms do... in track and maintaining strength.
I am not saying he is .. im saying if he is... would add in new factors to take into consideration
watch him on dvorak he is hyptnozing i cant think what to look at next
| CoconutCandy |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 09:33 PM |
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Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!
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I'm Majorly Impressed, pun Intended.
In my last post at 8am EDT, when Felix was still at Cat 2, I surmised that I might wake up to a Cat 3. (I'm 6 hours behind Florida.)
But it was already an impressive Cat 4. And now, a mere 12 hours after that post, we have a very intense Cat 5! that shows no signs of slowing in it's intensification.
If memory serves me, we had just another 'ho-hum' Invest-94, just east of the Caribbean, that most models were not even picking up on, let alone prognosticating a full-blown massive Category 5 Hurricane in just over 50 hours!
I'm a little surprised by the central pressures all along with this storm. Felix went from TD-6 to a Cat 1 hurricane in 27 hours, with a drop of *only* 15 millibars. Hmmm ... How is this possible?
And the most current dropsonde reports back 936mb, which 'normally' equates with a low-end Cat 4. Cat 5's 'start' at around 920mb and lower.
Usually, the pressures drop first and the winds follow suit. Here, it would appear that Felix is displaying the opposite. And Mike has mentioned that the radius of Hurricane force winds only extend out 25 miles or so, which seems to many of us rather unusual.
I'm wondering if these two peculiarities are related or intertwined in some way? Feel free chime in and add your thoughts on all this, please. This is very curious to me. We still have much to learn about rapid intensification! ala 'Charlie' and 'Flossie', etc.
Felix is awesomely impressive in itself, but the fact it really roughed up the Recon crew to the extent that they had to abort their mission speaks volumes.
Not in my memory of watching storms over many years, do I recall a Recon team that had to call it quits and retreat to homebase with a dented plane from the graupel blasting and a shaken crew from the extreme turbulence.
I think Felix may well have a few more tricks up his sleeve, which will be played out for all the world to see, in the coming days. Hold on for *this* ride, and pray that the ridge remains intact!
| weather999 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 10:00 PM |
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Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!
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I was just doing a bit of research:
At the 11:00 AM AST adv:
"MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB."
The most recent advisory-8 PM EST (9 PM AST):
"MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB."
46 MB drop between those advisories, if these advisories are about 10 hours apart (im not completely sure if they are, I get confused when trop cyclones move into different time zones)-this equates to a 4.6 mb/hour drop!
Please correct me if I am wrong on any of this, because I repeat that I am not completely sure that my info is accurate.
Thanks
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 10:02 PM |
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annular
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annular hurricane just means i has a large eye and complete, highly symmetrical cdo. sort of a 'death ring' cdo. it's the appearance some very intense hurricanes take on, usually after going through their pinhole-eye stage while intensifying rapidly. i wouldn't call felix 'annular' right now... maybe it's getting close, but the dimensions of the storm don't fit that particular meaning unless i'm mistaken.
i wonder if that plane was in real danger. they don't usually abort recon flights like that unless something was going bad wrong. reckon we'll have a lot of hair-raising details in the 11pm discussion.
HF 0202z03september
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 10:03 PM |
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Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!
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Impressive microwave pass just in: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc07/ATL/06L.FELIX/tc_ssmis/91h/1degreeticks/full/Latest.html
Felix looks incredible everywhere I'm seeing it.
--RC
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 10:13 PM |
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Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!
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remember one thing.. most cat 5s have that sort of annular look.. doesn't make them so..
just a hurricane is at its most photogenic as a category 2 or 3.. once they start exploding and deepening they turn into mean round balls of solid screaming winds... harder to see the bands and they all look rather round. Andrew while over Miami was that way .. except for one long band which arced up to the north and swung around through the georgias and carolinas it looked like one colorful round ball on ir..
either way.. a lot to factor in tonight suddenly and we will learn from this storm for years..
but the storm has barely begun to live
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 10:14 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!
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i would say with the smaller eye in felix... we can almost relate this more towards the last Hurricane Wilma, in structure size, shape, strength... (not path, etc)... but i am beginning to think that we might see something amazing tonight out of this system when the next AF recon gets into the system... i would epect in the next adv.. they will keep the current pressure and winds... due to the fact no recon, but would talk that they may be going conservative.... until next recon?
Attached the last good vis of Felix... just another amazing hurricane
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 10:29 PM |
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dvorak keeps changing
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the whole core is getting whiter than earlier and the bubble of white that was on the NW side of the storm has expanded.. gotten bigger
does anyone know if that is indicative of anything
its an amazing process to watch and as we don't have recon right now..
i feel the best thing to look at is the dvorak even though others are prettier color wise
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd.jpg
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 10:36 PM |
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Re: dvorak keeps changing
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based on this IR, same product i used durning Wilma.... it still showed some signs of very cold clouds tops after recon had to depart.... so there is a chance that it may be stronger than we know... only real way to know for sure is to have recon.
http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/AOI/AOI1_ir_loop.gif
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 10:37 PM |
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Felix
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The Weather Channel reported the NOAA plane aborted due to the graupel-small hail. They had reported earlier that the NOAA plane observed 1 mb drop per mile on one of the inbound legs to Felix.
I.e. a 60mb drop over 60nm starting at 1008mb. (That will make your ears pop like crazy!)
Felix is way above the pressure wind relationship as stated above. 934mb should be in the 140mph range, and 165mph should be in the 902mb range.
Hurricanes don't read the books obviously.
It appears that the pressure is working as intended. I'm now seeing 25C temperatures in the EYE at nearly 10000 feet. Earlier today the warmest temp. was 15C or 59F.
I forgot to mention the possibility of an ERC. Random Chaos' link above eluded to the early appearance of the double/ triple eyewall on satellite.
SSMI overpass
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 10:38 PM |
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Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!
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Felix may be peaking or close to peaking for now... there has been some definite warming of cloud tops in the CDO in the last hour or so. It'll be interesting to see what the next plane finds in there.
As Storm Hunter pointed above, the last plane lingered in the eye for several minutes after taking a beating in the eyewall. I don't know if there was any meteorological reason for that... it may have been a case of the recon crew regrouping in the relative calm of the eye.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 10:47 PM |
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Re: Felix
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Quote:
Felix is way above the pressure wind relationship as stated above. 934mb should be in the 140mph range, and 165mph should be in the 902mb range.
Hurricanes don't read the books obviously.
Yeah, the 934mb is quite a bit higher than what you'd expect for a 165mph storm. Given that Felix is a very small storm, here's my theory as to what has happened: Able to quickly respond to changes in its environment, as Felix passed over the warm oceanic eddy south of Haiti, the surface heat drawn off of the surface rapidly increased. This helped to rapidly enhance the (secondary) circulation of the storm and increase the strength of its warm core aloft. As this happened, the (primary) circulation of the storm strengthened rapidly, resulting in a sharp increase in wind speed. Also given its small size, the pressure gradient component to describing the wind field is likely very large -- the 1 mb/1 nm Danny mentioned suggests this as well -- but the angular rotational component is also likely very large, moreso than normal.
Anyway, enough technical debate. While an eyewall cycle didn't look imminent on microwave imagery as of 8pm ET, Felix will shortly be leaving the warm eddy behind. Given that the minimum sea level pressure never really responded as much as one would expect, just leaving the eddy will likely see some reduction in the wind speeds. As an eyewall cycle occurs, perhaps starting tomorrow, the system will grow in size, likely bringing down the wind speeds further. I wouldn't be totally shocked to see a temporary weakening down to a category 4 storm again tomorrow. From there, depending on how close it comes to Honduras on its way to the Yucatan/Belize, it will have the opportunity to re-strengthen into a category 5 storm before landfall. We may had gone 15 years since the last landfalling cat. 5 storm with Dean, but we may not go much more than 2 weeks between them if Felix does the same.
| weather999 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 10:48 PM |
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Re: dvorak keeps changing
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-bd.html
Looking at the Dvorak loop there, the only theory I have for this "thing" on the NW side of the storm is that it's making it look a bit more like it's becoming an annular hurricane on Dvorak (newest image in the loop, 2:15 utc illustrates this well)
Observe the northern outflow, and you can clearly see that the area of the darker greys has diminished quite a bit.
So maybe this has to do with becoming annular? We'll just have to wait and see if the current "trend" continues.
Edit: forgot to add that cloud tops seem to be warming as well with each image.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 10:48 PM |
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Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!
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Quote:
As Storm Hunter pointed above, the last plane lingered in the eye for several minutes after taking a beating in the eyewall.... it may have been a case of the recon crew regrouping in the relative calm of the eye.
that's what I thought....to get control of the plane or get their airspeed up.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 10:50 PM |
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Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!
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Quote:
Felix may be peaking or close to peaking for now... there has been some definite warming of cloud tops in the CDO in the last hour or so. It'll be interesting to see what the next plane finds in there.
As Storm Hunter pointed above, the last plane lingered in the eye for several minutes after taking a beating in the eyewall. I don't know if there was any meteorological reason for that... it may have been a case of the recon crew regrouping in the relative calm of the eye.
I am going to post the flight path on the recon.... its kinda interesting to see.... they were still taking HDOB measurements... they went in from the NE to the SW... and i think they did about 7-9 circles in the center?... waiting on the 10pm... should be interesting!
Honestly i think they were doing some research on something on the NE part of the eye.... just based on the flight path....
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 10:55 PM |
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Re: Felix
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Quote:Quote:
Felix is way above the pressure wind relationship as stated above. 934mb should be in the 140mph range, and 165mph should be in the 902mb range.
Hurricanes don't read the books obviously.
Yeah, the 934mb is quite a bit higher than what you'd expect for a 165mph storm. Given that Felix is a very small storm, here's my theory as to what has happened: Able to quickly respond to changes in its environment, as Felix passed over the warm oceanic eddy south of Haiti, the surface heat drawn off of the surface rapidly increased. This helped to rapidly enhance the (secondary) circulation of the storm and increase the strength of its warm core aloft. As this happened, the (primary) circulation of the storm strengthened rapidly, resulting in a sharp increase in wind speed. Also given its small size, the pressure gradient component to describing the wind field is likely very large -- the 1 mb/1 nm Danny mentioned suggests this as well -- but the angular rotational component is also likely very large, moreso than normal.
Anyway, enough technical debate. While an eyewall cycle didn't look imminent on microwave imagery as of 8pm ET, Felix will shortly be leaving the warm eddy behind. Given that the minimum sea level pressure never really responded as much as one would expect, just leaving the eddy will likely see some reduction in the wind speeds. As an eyewall cycle occurs, perhaps starting tomorrow, the system will grow in size, likely bringing down the wind speeds further. I wouldn't be totally shocked to see a temporary weakening down to a category 4 storm again tomorrow. From there, depending on how close it comes to Honduras on its way to the Yucatan/Belize, it will have the opportunity to re-strengthen into a category 5 storm before landfall. We may had gone 15 years since the last landfalling cat. 5 storm with Dean, but we may not go much more than 2 weeks between them if Felix does the same.
Clark and gang.
There is additional positive anomalies in Felix's path, near 75W, and this extends westward
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/sst2.png
Also, may I extend an addendum to Clark's explanation. The Mean Sea Level Pressure is slightly positive anomalous surrounding Felix, as well, and this may have added to a steeping of the Pressure Gradient Force.
Lastly...for now, it is rare to get hurricanes much stronger than this while moving at these forward speeds. I have discussed this I believe earlier in this thread and elsewhere, in order for a system to become richly coupled with the oceanic heat content, you want a storm to be moving tad slower so as to tap into the integrate heat content a bit more proficiently..
Heck, if a system stays in the same place, that same process can hurt it, if given enough time. That is because turbulent upwelling starts neutralizing the heat in the top layers and the thermocline shallows.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 11:02 PM |
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Re: Fierce Felix now at Cat 5 - Recon ABORTED!
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Quote:
Felix may be peaking or close to peaking for now... there has been some definite warming of cloud tops in the CDO in the last hour or so. It'll be interesting to see what the next plane finds in there.
As Storm Hunter pointed above, the last plane lingered in the eye for several minutes after taking a beating in the eyewall. I don't know if there was any meteorological reason for that... it may have been a case of the recon crew regrouping in the relative calm of the eye.
What your saying is all valid...but Felix exhibited very steep developmental rates while the cloud tops were warmer than they are righ now, earlier this late afternoon.
Fact of the matter is, I don't think Felix really will get much more intense than we are seeing while he moves along this quickly.. And an ERC may well take place as Clark discussed.
| flahurricane |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 11:17 PM |
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Re: Felix
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Quote:
Felix will shortly be leaving the warm eddy behind. Given that the minimum sea level pressure never really responded as much as one would expect, just leaving the eddy will likely see some reduction in the wind speeds.
Clark, as of 11pm the NHC discussion said that Felix has yet to reach the very high heat areas of the western Caribbean. Are you referring to a different area?
Please see post #77826 above, thanks!
TT
| Unregistered User |
| (Unregistered) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 11:27 PM |
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Re: Felix
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Not to divert any attention (and well-deserved attention indeed) from Felix, but what do you guys think about the low level area of circulation just off the Georgia Coast?
From NOAA 11pm:
AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE GEORGIA
COAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
IT DRIFTS GENERALLY EASTWARD.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 11:32 PM |
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Re: Felix
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Quote:
There is additional positive anomalies in Felix's path, near 75W, and this extends westward
http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/sst2.png
Tip,
Indeed, there are still quite warm waters ahead of Felix. I was mostly imitating at the well-defined eddy that it has been passing over today: http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1/work/HHP/NEW/2007244ca.jpg
I do think we'll see some strengthening when it gets into the NW Carib, but that's at least one eyewall cycle away and dependent upon any land interaction(s) with Honduras.
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 11:40 PM |
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Re: Felix
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Quote:
Not to divert any attention (and well-deserved attention indeed) from Felix, but what do you guys think about the low level area of circulation just off the Georgia Coast?
From NOAA 11pm:
AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS JUST TO THE EAST OF THE GEORGIA
COAST IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE. THIS SYSTEM HAS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
IT DRIFTS GENERALLY EASTWARD.
Please check the 2007 Storm Forum, as well as the embedded text that front pages this thread. There has been some material developed surrounding this subject matter.
TT
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 11:41 PM |
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Area off the GA Coast
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While the area just off of the Savannah,GA Coast does have a cyclonic swirl. At this time there doesn't appear to be any convection in it. There is actually more convection-lightning over Southern MS and just off of the SW FL Coast right now.
0245z RGB Image
Still an area to watch... Once in a while. Due to it's proximity to land and the current satellite signature.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 02 2007 11:44 PM |
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NHC Discussion
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Are they reading this thread???
"...THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...AND FELIX HAS YET TO PASS
OVER THE VERY HIGH HEAT CONTENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
STRUCTURE...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SHORT-TERM
INTENSIFICATION."
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/030256.shtml
edit: To clarify. Several of us had been discussing the possibility of an ERC beginning based on the SSMI satellite overpass in Random Chaos' post.
When NHC issued their Discussion about 30-45 minutes later with the above statement I was slightly shocked to say the least.~danielw
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 12:11 AM |
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Re: NHC Discussion
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Incredible discussion tonight, just reading along and you are all doing an amazing job.
As for Felix... have to watch and wait for new recon messages.
Yes, good point.. usually you don't see a storm do that sort of rapid intensification without slowing down some.
Felix seems to like breaking rules...
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 12:55 AM |
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Re: NHC Discussion
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Usually we see the diurnal maxima and the strongest strengthening overnight, yet with Dean and now Felix, it seems that we are seeing most of the strengthening during the daytime.
I'm curious what atmospheric conditions might be causing this?
Since we are on the topic of SSTs, I figured I'd throw out yet another diagram of them:
http://www.ssmi.com/hurricane/active_storms_sst.atl.html
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 01:03 AM |
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Re: NHC Discussion
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Quote:
Usually we see the diurnal maxima and the strongest strengthening overnight, yet with Dean and now Felix, it seems that we are seeing most of the strengthening during the daytime.
I'm curious what atmospheric conditions might be causing this?
Since we are on the topic of SSTs, I figured I'd throw out yet another diagram of them:
http://www.ssmi.com/hurricane/active_storms_sst.atl.html
You know..that's a good question. My immediate conclusion is that the storm physics alone is not as susceptible to nocturnal phenomenon of radiative cloud-top cooling, which destablizes the column and helps aid in convective centered UVM. This system is mechanically superior to that kind of phenomenon so its internal structural changes are masking any feed-backs that may provide. The same was true for Dean.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 01:31 AM |
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Re: NHC Discussion
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There are exceptions to every rule. You can look towards somethings but not rely on them.
Especially this year...
Interesting temperature chart, seriously hope no Canes find their way into that warm water nw of Cuba...
Wondering if the GFDL is right and Felix makes it into the Pacific or if something snags it and pulls it further north of inland over mexico.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 01:40 AM |
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Re: NHC Discussion
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I should be sleeping, but we have a new vortex recon coming, so I decided to stay awake to read it
303
URNT12 KNHC 030538
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/05:11:00Z
B. 13 deg 58 min N
074 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2568 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 235 deg 132 kt
G. 127 deg 008 nm
H. 937 mb
I. 7 C/ 3041 m
J. 24 C/ 3076 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1006A FELIX OB 07
MAX FL WIND 147KT NW QUAD 05:17:50Z
STADIUM EFFECT
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 01:44 AM |
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Re: NHC Discussion
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Yeah we should all be sleeping but we aren't... check out this image
its time sensitive but if you look quick you will see a pentagram in the eye of the DVORAK Image
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd.jpg
small storm, sort of chilling though...
ever changing... wonder what it will be like in the morning
| ltpat228 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 01:51 AM |
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Re: NHC Discussion
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Quote:
Yeah we should all be sleeping but we aren't... check out this image
its time sensitive but if you look quick you will see a pentagram in the eye of the DVORAK Image
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/bd.jpg
small storm, sort of chilling though...
ever changing... wonder what it will be like in the morning
I work 1900-0700 and am off tonight, so naturally I am awake.
You see a pentagram?
I see a hurricane.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 01:53 AM |
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Re: NHC Discussion
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Quote:
I should be sleeping, but we have a new vortex recon coming, so I decided to stay awake to read it
303
URNT12 KNHC 030538
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/05:11:00Z
B. 13 deg 58 min N
074 deg 44 min W
C. 700 mb 2568 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 235 deg 132 kt
G. 127 deg 008 nm
H. 937 mb
I. 7 C/ 3041 m
J. 24 C/ 3076 m
K. 7 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.03 / 1 nm
P. AF305 1006A FELIX OB 07
MAX FL WIND 147KT NW QUAD 05:17:50Z
STADIUM EFFECT
Something to notice.... the Eyewall is shrinking... gone done about 2 miles in diameter in about 6-7 hrs... another is.. look at the difference in flt lv temp between outside the eye and inside the center!
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 02:10 AM |
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Vortex
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Item " J " 24C inside the Eye at nearly 10000 feet!
That's 75F at 10000 feet.
Felix is really vacuuming up some warm air from below!
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 02:16 AM |
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Re: Vortex
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Quote:
Item " J " 24C inside the Eye at nearly 10000 feet!
That's 75F at 10000 feet.
Felix is really vacuuming up some warm air from below!
Opps! I forgot to add that to my last post... going over some HDOB data... from NOAA2... they were at 7,300ft with air temp of 76.3F at 23:03:00Z 13.73N 72.68W.... AF recon is heading south on the west side of the storm about to turn inward.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 03:04 AM |
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Re: Vortex
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Recon just went through eye! at 06:59:00Z 14.08N 75.30W
Waiting on vortex!!! winds didn't seem that too high on inbound... ... **air temp at 2,565 meters (~ 8,415 feet) was 78.8°F... recon did a weird flight path once in the eye... looks like they focused on the eastern part of the eye... and went out to the NE.. with what looks like the highest flt. lvl wind From 145° at 142 knots (From the SE at ~ 163.3 mph)
URNT12 KNHC 030730
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/06:57:50Z
B. 14 deg 02 min N
075 deg 19 min W
C. 700 mb 2556 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 325 deg 121 kt
G. 223 deg 006 nm
H. 936 mb
I. 9 C/ 3051 m
J. 26 C/ 3047 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 1006A FELIX OB 13
MAX FL WIND 155 KT NW QUAD 07:07:50Z
Pressure about the same... seems like felix may be getting close to an ERC.... Don't see double eyewalls, but pressure seems to have slowed down and eye is contracting...
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 04:56 AM |
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Re: Vortex
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Just a couple footnotes and helpful links while going into the new day. The satellite presentation says enough for Felix...it is presently on a more west than west northwest course at this time. Amore southern track is apparently the way to go as the storm has headed more to the west over night.
The steering data (Which will update sometime during the next hour) would indicate that there is a High pressure steering flow due to the north of Felix. There is a secondary ridge in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. In between, there is a slight breakdown in the steering flow due to the ULL off of Miami. The overall effect of the ULL will be minimal, but will probably lead to a slow down in Felix's forward speed in about 12-16 hours...In fact, Felix may have slowed down by a Mile Per Hour in forward speed now...But that is tough to guage due to the satellite eclipse. The steering layer for a hurricane with pressures below 940mb is generally the 200-700mb level. I am attaching the link for that here: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm6.html (It updates every 3 hours)
Yesterday's discussion from the NHC also featured an upcomming trough of low pressure. I am attaching a great link at the end of this paragraph in the event that you may want to follow it's evolution throughout the day. The trough is currentlyappraoching the Pacific coast and will likely turn Henrietta in the Pacific on amore northerly course. As far as interests go with Felix...so far, I'm not sure that this will be much of a player. There is a solid ULL embedded in the trough, it is moving at a good clip, but it is sliding ENE ward now...Also, at this time, the trough does not seem to be a digging trough. I could speculate that the trough would have to be a "digging" troughin order to get enough influence going late in the period. Lot's can change as the pattern evolves and as the NHC has advertised with respect to this trough...As for now, it lookslike the overall affects will be slight. Link to Goes West Vapor Loop: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/west/animation/goeswestwv.html
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 08:21 AM |
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Re: Vortex
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This thing is still strengthening.
Using 90% stepdown: 167MPH surface winds
Using SFMR surface value: 161MPH surface winds
Official 8am from NHC is 165MPH.
---
449
URNT12 KNHC 031205
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 03/1109Z
B. 14 DEG 09 MIN N
76 DEG 40 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2582 M
D. 140 KT
E. 120 DEG 05 NM
F. 190 DEG 130 KTS
G. 120 DEG 052 NM
H. 938 MB
I. 12 C/ 3072 M
J. 25 C/ 3023 M
K. 12C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C08
N. 12345/7
O. 1/2 NM
P. N0AA32 1106A FELIX OB 09 AL062007
MAX SFMR WND 140 FROM SE QUAD
MAX FL WIND EXITING TO NW 162KTS AT 1111Z
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 08:30 AM |
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Re: Vortex
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Yes, Felix is beginning to remind me of Mitch .. just keeps getting stronger.
Hoping steering current behind Felix does not slow up just before landfall. Have read a few things to indicate it might but... a big but.. I am relying on the high it is carrying along will provide it's own steering current and just keep going without stalling out.
Either way... going through an intensification phase and it has lots of running room to go today to strengthen further.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 08:35 AM |
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Re: Vortex
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Here's a good view of Felix's environment. Click on the SST image switch from conditions to anamolies and back again. Quickscat has a similar switch function.
http://www.ssmi.com/cyclone/cyclone.html?year=2007&storm=felix&ob=latest
It looks to me from that the it still has even warmer water to go over before it reaches the coast.
We really need a microwave pass to see if a 2nd eyewall is starting to form. Recon didn't report concentric eyewalls, but they only report that if the 2nd wall is over 50% formed.
Edit: Last couple frames on IR show the eye shrinking dramatically.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 09:57 AM |
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Re: Vortex
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The last visible suggests that an eyewall replacement is under way. Or, perhaps it has peaked...lets hope so.
I remain interested in the patterns surrounding the system...the large upper trough that has preceded it has retrograded into the western GOM. However that may be as far as it goes as a robust high seems to be building northward from Mexico into Texas. The ULL over the Florida straits has not moved west with Felix as the one associated with Dean did. It has flattened into a SW-NE trough or so it appears. The pattern suggests a weakness near the coast line of expected land fall, and northward. I do expect the system to miss the northern Hounduran coast line on a direct hit and see land fall closer to Belize City. I am greatful the models seem so confident to that general point. But I think beyond that some questions remain.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 10:13 AM |
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Re: Vortex
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199 mph flight level winds. That's some flight to be on and remember.
While reading everything written about the area off the Carolinas I keep wondering if that is what is pulling the models to the right on Invest 98.
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200798_model.html#a_topad
I mean.. as much as I am watching Felix it is hard not to peak on 98 and wonder if now that it is past the main influence of SAL if it can or will fire up today. Model run from this morning makes it worth wondering on.
| nc_tropical_wx79 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 10:42 AM |
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Re: Vortex
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Lois Cane or anyone else who may know is the area off the Carolina's still frontal or is it an unattached low?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 11:32 AM |
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Re: Vortex
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There is a attached low from a old frontal boundry there. Its not completly warm core but I expect that to change pretty soon. Alot of dry air came in off the mainland...but once the trough comes by to its N tomorrow.I would expect the system to develop as a ridge slides by to its N during mid-late week.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Sep 03 2007 05:18 PM |
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Re: Vortex
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I don't for sure. Some maps I have seen show a Low.. looks attached still to me.
NRL is investigating it... so http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.htm
Suppose we will know soon enough if it can swim on it's own.
Many dramas on NRL today... 98 still there as well.