MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Sat Sep 15 2007 02:36 PM |
Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas
|
11:26 AM EDT 16 Sep Update
Ingrid is still holding on as a depression and the weaker system has allowed to to go further west. This puts the extreme Northeastern Caribbean islands in the cone of error, and means they may have to watch it as well. Because of the slow movement, any track westward that isn't forecast may be cause for concern there. Slower moving storms, especially in this part of the Atlantic, are usually harder to forecast.
The wave in the Central/Eastern Caribbean is looking better too and will likely have to be watched.
In fact, Recon has been scheduled to investigate Ingrid AND the system in the eastern central Caribbean.
8:40 AM EDT 16 Sep Update
Ingrid is still holding as a tropical depressions, still moving relatively slowly (toward the west) at present. It is still expected shortly to move more northwest and away from the islands and out to sea. Shear is being maintained on this system, and will likely keep it weak or fall into an open wave over the next few days. Still no threat to the US mainland.
The wave in the Central Atlantic still may form in the next few days, and the Southwest Caribbean may have a chance to form later in the week, and we may have to watch that if it does.
Original Update
Ingrid has weakened back into a tropical depression and the forecast track for the system keeps it well away from the US mainland. Ingrid will likely stay weak, and may even become an open wave again, but the low level circulation is rugged enough to perhaps come back later after shear subsides. Still, even then, although it may be further west if it stays weaker... it will still likely be out to sea,
Seems easy? it is all said and done? However...
Positive factors for Ingrid include the fact that the upper level low near Ingrid is moving away, which may allow conditions to improve tomorrow. In that case Ingrid would likely intensify and also likely head further north. Since the storm is still very slow moving it's worth watching for a while. This scenario is less likely of the two mentioned.
Other areas to watch include an area in the Central Atlantic (between the Caribbean and Africa) may be one to watch later for development. It's moving westward around 12-15MPH.
Another area, north of the Caribbean is one to watch because of the proximity, but nothing imminent there. Most of the convection there is caused by an upper level low pressure, which rarely fall to the surface, and shear near it is too high to support development right now, but we'll watch it. If it were to develop (not all that likely) it would take quite a while to get going.
Yet another area in the southwestern Caribbean is worth watching as well, but likely won't do much. There is also a disturbance in the Eastern Caribbean.
Lots to watch, but nothing really imminent.
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Ingrid|08|8|2007|2|Ingrid}}
| OrlandoHurricane |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Sep 15 2007 03:01 PM |
| Attachment |
|
|
Models Showing Tropical Cyclone Later This Week
|
Many of the latest forecast models are showing an area of low pressure developing north of Panama and heading north into the Gulf of Mexico later this week.
The GFS is showing a tropical storm hitting Florida just north of Tampa around Saturday.
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/model_l.shtml
A strong ridge of high pressure building to the north this week will cause pressures to fall in the Southwest Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf. A tropical wave currently south of Puerto Rico will interact in a few days with the area of low pressure north of Panama to generate a system which may threaten the Gulf coast in several days.
The attachment shows the 12Z Sept 15th runs for the NOGAPS, GFS, and UKMET for the Friday/Saturday timeframe.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Sep 15 2007 03:15 PM |
|
|
Re: Models Showing Tropical Cyclone Later This Week
|
was just about to say the samething... lol.... this is gaining more and more model support for the NW Caribean in to the GOM... The GFS is now showing a weak ridge off the east coast, which could make this a central GOM-east GOM threat if it were to develope... the models have been showing something for about the last day and a half... this would be late next week. One thing to note... the area the system could move over is where in the last few years we have had strong storms... water is warm, loops current is warm.... needs to be watched...
Like Orland posted... the tropical wave is to the south of Purteo Rico....
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-rgb.html
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 16 2007 02:07 AM |
|
|
Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas
|
Rather agree with much of the above sentiment in the lead. What we may have here is a brief calm before the (next) storm(s). If climatology, this season's performance thus far, and the number of areas we can point out right now that could very well light/light back up, is all any indication, then it is nearly a certainty that more is on the way this month. In addition to those potential warm spots mentioned above, I'm still somewhat interested in the southern Caribbean, and also in the couple of embedded ITCZ perturbations currently bouncing around 8N between 30 and 50 W.
Other than that, some specific observations I know other members and visitors may find interesting
First, while most of the vorticity and certainly virtually all of x-Humberto's moisture has blown out in to the Atlantic with the front that scooped it up and swept it away, "Believe It, Or Not," a teeny-tiny remnant low level circulation leftover has just scooted south-southwest and popped offshore, last I could make out right before eclipse, it was situated maybe 100 miles southeast from the tip of SE La. Shear is moderate, but as we have seen many times, this shear has served to (at least right up to eclipse) fan a flareup right atop the bare llc.
Prospects? Perhaps first some cons - The shear is currently running a bit high for redevelopment now that this is an entirely marginalized remnant of a remnant low level circulation. There are still all sorts of upper level mowers swirling around the western Atlantic. The jet fuel which helped power Humberto is long, long gone, leaving a bare-bones weak remnant to beg for some fuel and a lit match.
Pro? That little sucker survived this far inland and back again, after all, and in the face of some pretty high shear, and worth repeating -a lot of land-. Also, that little sucker has already seemed to find a little fuel and a lit match. Go figure. Certainly hard to forget Erin & Ivan. I want to say maybe a 5% chance for some kind of respectable regeneration.
> My other observation - Ingrid. Fighting shear like a champ tonight. Also, if anything, that shear has (once again) helped as well as hindered.. hindered any real strengthening, but also fanning ongoing convection. If anything, tonight Ingrid looks far better than she did Saturday afternoon, with deeper convection going up nearly all the way around the coc, albeit lopsided and strongly sheared. No analysis other than to acknowledge her ability to survive within some really rather high shear, thus far, and to (talking to myself) keep in mind the history of tenacious features which have done so in the past.
| flahurricane |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 16 2007 02:32 AM |
|
Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas
|
I saw the area in the western Caribbean on models at least 3 days ago. It looks like convection is increasing tonight in that area as well as TD Ingrid. It will be interesting to watch these two areas over the next several days.
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 16 2007 09:45 AM |
|
|
Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas
|
I was looking at models last night and saw it on at least two. This morning, NBC2 out of Ft. Myers, their morning met talked about the models showing something developing and heading generally towards Florida. That's VERY unusual for them to mention model runs this far out before a storm even develops, so they are taking it pretty seriously too. My husband works for the county and they get Impact Weather updates, and a statement came out from them this morning too about it on his bb.
The best thing for everyone to remember is to keep an eye on the weather and NHC sites. Regardless of what happens, it looks like this week is set up to provide a lot of possibilities for weather events and everyone should stay alert and not just focusing on one area or another.
| Bruce |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 16 2007 10:39 AM |
|
Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas
|
Ingrid is looking better today and as of this post is still building convection over the
center, could it become a TS again? With High pressure building to the north why
does the NHC still have Ingrid moving North? I still don't have this movement
thing down yet. Thanks all.
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 16 2007 10:57 AM |
Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas
|
No doubt that the extent of Ingrid's weakened status has itself allowed it to be steered more westward than poleward. Only the Shallow BAM model holds out consideration of a more WNW trek, verses most others ready to steer the system more northward. 6Z UK model ( though only projecting out 48hr ), interestingly also attempts to slide Ingrid more WNW also, and in fact maintains ( or even slightly deepens ) the integrity of the system. Looking at this morning's IR, it seems evident that as the upper trough to the west of Ingrid attempts to pinch off a Caribbean cut-off low, the upper flow rather than racing Eastward, is for now starting to bend more northward in attempt to wrap around this possible cut off. Result?, as evident on this a.m. visible sat., the shear over Ingrid may be lessening just slightly. Big question is how much and for how long.
From here, I will divert from conventional meteorology. Many years show some diversity of storm tracks yet a predominant pattern somehow seems to be evident. Sometimes, a pattern where two predominant tracks take place. No doubt, this year has shown thus far, a bias for westward motion as opposed to those years of so many recurving N. Atlantic "fish spinners". Given the mid level steering of a well organized hurricane, there would seem little doubt that recurvature would seem imminent. The obvious concern is that as low level Easterly steering even becomes weakened, and if Ingrid were able to stave off shear for 48 hours, we could see very slow even erratic motion, but little significant gain in lattitude for a couple of days. Even still, upper level conditions are not likely to improve significantly for couple days thereafter, but in the event of a COL, it would be very errie to have a lingering depression or weak Tropical Storm just north of Hispanola or P.R. 5 or 6 days from now, during such a year of recurring ridging off the Eastern U.S. seaboard.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Sep 16 2007 12:17 PM |
|
|
september, week three
|
there isn't much on the map right now, but this could be a blockbuster week for the tropics.
ingrid continues to plod westward in the face of shear. it's redeveloped a good bit of convection today and watches/warnings for the islands, for at least a minimal tropical storm, are probably short in coming. the convection also makes the long-anticipated bend back to the northwest a more immediate likelihood, though according to the models this should have happened more than a day ago. looking at the newer model runs has me progressively more concerned about the long-term action ingrid will take. that upper weakness to its north, long-anticipated as the catch mechanism that will keep ingrid held until a late-week upper trough can grab it, is not living up to its part of the bargain. if ingrid makes it through, strong ridging in the western atlantic will get the storm instead. i don't need to tell you what would happen next. better hope ingrid gets stuck and fumbles around north of puerto rico next week.
that long-advertised region near the bahamas i was mumbling about last week hasn't borne anything as of yet. a quick glance at the region this morning shows nothing of concern, but the general area is still going to hold as a storm-friendly environment for the first half of this week. several of the models still have an inverted trough hanging there much of the week. development would not be a surprise, and it would likely try to cross florida. the caribbean thing has nothing in the way of a closed circulation, and is still just a central caribbean wave (looking better) and a festering zone north of panama. these two features will meet shortly, and the models are still trying to develop something here. nhc has a recon tentatively tasked for this area, so they aren't expecting nothing. the models are here and there on it, but generally see something, run it up into the gulf.
central tropical atlantic has a big area of disturbed weather that seems to be a dogpile of tropical waves more than anything else. several areas of turning over several hundred miles, and they all seem to be playing hot potato with convection. the big/disorganized profile of this thing is really only having one result.. it isn't developing, yet. just moving west. in the open atlantic subtropics there are more upper lows with attendant disturbed weather. those things develop sometimes this year. models have been suggesting one or another might, but there isn't one that a majority are trying to sell.
recap. it's mid-september, a great time of year to be paranoid about a great many places. we've got a tropical depression that looks like it will last a while longer, and may try to buck the system and get west under the ridge, or just give in to the pressure of what most every model says it should do. maybe another system or two in the works. most of these possibles look like threat systems. might be a couple of days, but this week looks to get going, maybe in a big way.
HF 1617z16september
| CDMOrlando |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 16 2007 01:52 PM |
|
|
Re: Models Showing Tropical Cyclone Later This Week
|
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
133 PM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007
THE EARLY PRELIM FCST MAINTAINS YDAYS FINAL FCST THAT EMPHASIZED POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK FEATURE TO TRACK FROM THE NWRN CARIBBEAN INTO THE SERN GULF. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH HOW WELL DEFINED THE SFC REFLECTION WILL BE IN ASSOC WITH THE MID LVL ENERGY FCST TO RETROGRADE FROM THE EXTREME SERN CONUS/ERN GULF OF MEXICO. CURRENT DEPICTION STILL PLAYS ON AN NWWD MOVING DISTURBANCE FROM OFF THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST THRU THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND NWD TOWARDS THE LA/TX COAST
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 16 2007 02:08 PM |
|
Re: Models Showing Tropical Cyclone Later This Week
|
Looking at the flow in the Caribbean, I just don't see how anything is going to survive that swift west-to-east wind. The area south of the D.R. appears to be having a go at it, but it's got a way to go before it survives.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 16 2007 03:38 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Models Showing Tropical Cyclone Later This Week
|
We've just had two cycles from SSD with Ingrid back up to 3.0/3.0. Up from 2.0/2.5 and 2.0/2.5. Even though Ingrid is taking yet another afternoon beating, again, today, I surmise that if there is one more back-to-back cycle at or above 2.5/2.5 from SSD, this might be all NHC needs to issue tropical storm watches, and maybe warnings, up for the northernmost islands (possibly as early as later today).
The shear over Ingrid remains strong, but as others have noted, the trough largely producing it appears to be attempting to close off. If it does so, this source of detrimental shear may eventually become more of a source for a positive outflow channel/diffluent flow enhancer. Seems to me that Ingrid's upside potential looks as certain as her downside potential. That is to say, I think the odds of Ingrid remaining a mere TD, or washing away altogether, is just as likely as Ingrid maintaining arguably tropical storm intensity, or ramping up.
Other features loom. The wave in the central Atlantic around the ITCZ looks to be attempting to consolidate at and/or near the surface, and light winds have begun turning markedly anti-cyclonic upstairs. Caribbean wave is about to meet up with the preexisting area of disturbed weather and lower pressures that has been hanging around from near Panama through roughly 15N. May be some early synergies in the works there, also as early as later today.
ULL near 33N/35W has made it down to the surface, and is nearly stationary, with decent convection. Not at all out of the realm of possibilities for some slow transition. Already looks an awful lot like a Kona Low (subtropical cyclones, in their own right)
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 16 2007 07:14 PM |
|
|
|
Re: september, week three
|
Quote:
if ingrid makes it through, strong ridging in the western atlantic will get the storm instead. i don't need to tell you what would happen next. better hope ingrid gets stuck and fumbles around north of puerto rico next week.
What exactly are you saying it would do if that happens? Does that mean it would be a FL/SEconus storm?
| jessiej |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 16 2007 08:29 PM |
|
Re: september, week three
|
It looks like Ingrid may be losing the battle. The forward motion seems to have stopped, and a northern motion seems to be happening. Also, there is some serious shear still ahead of it.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 16 2007 08:51 PM |
|
Re: september, week three
|
I really do not see how the NHC can justify continuing advisories on Ingrid at this point, let alone much longer.
There has not been any sign of a circulation - at any level - that I can detect all day.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 16 2007 09:07 PM |
| Attachment |
|
|
|
Re: september, week three
|
NOAA 43 is out there on Ingrid... actually there flying a unique research path...... Highest flt level wind i saw was 25kts (~28.7mph)...
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 16 2007 09:15 PM |
|
Re: september, week three
|
25kts at flight level? That's like 26mph at the surface, isn't it? Hardly worth issuing advisories on.
| 7 Deadly Zins |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 16 2007 09:35 PM |
|
Re: september, week three
|
Those 25 knot winds are also occuring well to the East of the area of lowest pressure. Nothing above 5 to 15 knots near where the center is/was.
I ran a visible loop from earlier in the afternoon and noticed the low level clouds on the North and Northwest side of the center were not really rotating couterclockwise like you would expect of a tropical storm. This would indicate Ingrid is becoming a tropical wave. Since then, satellite presentation had deteriorated even more.
Shear is winning.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 17 2007 10:37 AM |
|
|
Re: september, week three
|
Local Met out of Miami last night was talking about possibly something head this way towards the end of the week. He was thinking more of a rainmaker down here; but left it open. Models don't seem to have anything big here, but CMC (the storm maker) does have something doing a lap through the Gulf.
| Todd Caldwell |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Sep 17 2007 11:25 AM |
|
Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas
|
I am curious as to the large thunderstorm development off the east coast of north Florida. I zoomed in on the Weather Underground visible satellite feature and a large storm appears to keep re-generating in the same location for the last five hours about 50 miles off Cresent beach and Palm Coast. Is this just the remnents of some spin off from the recent front or could it be the starting of a low level circulation. Thanks for your input.
Zoom into area of disturbance off Cresent beach, Florida
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 17 2007 11:44 AM |
|
Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas
|
There is a midlevel low over N central Florida and is forecasted to strengthen over the next day or 2... Area your seeing is thunderstorm convergence over the warm waters on then end of a old front. This is being forecasted to form and drift W into the gulf...but its not tropical or fully tropical.. More of a midlevel flow as it will have a upper low cyclone present and not a anti for exhaust.
Ingrid might come back some in a couple of days and still mositure and a low might come N south of cuba in a few days also as the above mentioned moves into the central GOM. Once it gets into the central gulf..more tropical characteristics could take place.. .and there is a chance this could become a pure tropical storm or hurricane down the road as a weak ridge remains over the SE U.S.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 17 2007 11:59 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas
|
A nice change for mid September:
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE
DIMINISHED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN
THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
| Todd Caldwell |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Sep 17 2007 12:19 PM |
|
Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas
|
Thanks Scottsvb. We are home schooling four children and my oldest daughter is getting a good education this season on synoptic meteorology from the experts and enthusiest in these forums as they discuss hurricane formations, strengths and track forcasting. She had picked out the disturbance this morning and starting asking questions. The discussions in here are far and above more informative than what she could ever get from a 10th grade text book and it is much like a live-action Florida Virtual school course.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 17 2007 12:39 PM |
|
Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas
|
Flhurricane is a good site...though we do have a few wishcasters that will think everythings going to develop...Im sure you can figure out over time who they could be.
Even though we have alot of good Mets or just good intelligent people giving their takes on things and good info...Im sure the 10th grade weather book has the good basic facts.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 17 2007 01:16 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas
|
48 year olds learn a lot from ths site too!!
Just watch the wishcasrers; every hurricane does not hit Florida.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Sep 17 2007 02:53 PM |
|
Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas
|
Scott, the remains of Ingrid do not look healthy enought to survive, the low is no longer a tight circulation but highly elongated, and largly non-existent on the western side. BUT the pattern is changing in the W. Carribean and the GOM as ridging becomes dominant ove the central Gulf coast. I too noted the low in north central Florida peninsula and it is in the lower to mid levels, IMO....if this were over water an invest might be in order..(see Jeff Masters blog today which suggested the hunters are already alerted for later this week). Also the wave along 70 south of 20 has some cyclonic motion near Hispanola.
Need to keep a watch for Thursday or so.
EDS
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 17 2007 03:40 PM |
|
Re: Ingrid a Depression, Likely No Threat to US, Watching Other Areas
|
Yeah Ingrids chances are very low... my main area is what you stated in the carribean. The area over florida isnt in the LLs just in the mid. With bad upper level enviroment throughout the SW Atlantic and into the Carribean...conditions dont favor really anything until the central gulf in a few days. Chances I give Ingrid is 20% The midlevel circulation will move SE and develop a small low near the FL straits and move W. Cold Air aloft should warm and we will get a midlevel ridge over the SE ahead of a trough over the upper plains. This should let the system get alot better organized as it moves west thru the gulf. I give that a 60%. Im still glancing at energy staying in the carribean with lower pressures but will shear from the above system hamper development or not is 1 of a few questions... 30% chance on this.
| OrlandoHurricane |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Sep 17 2007 03:45 PM |
| Attachment |
|
|
You have to love that crazy Canadian Model
|
The Canadian Model is at it again. It's trying to form a hurricane off the Florida coast by Thursday. All of it's tropical systems get steroid injections.
Note: This is not going to happen.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 17 2007 04:04 PM |
|
|
Re: You have to love that crazy Canadian Model
|
I go by the patterns and steering. I do see something hitting the USA in a few days.. but it may not be all that and a bag of chips. Models are popping on and off on that GOM storm.. I don't have much confidence on it developing yet but conditions do look favorable. For the storm off the east coast, the CMC is not the only game in play.. GFS hints at a possible cyclone there and the NAM which I do admit, it has done a good job this year on tropical systems, shows a tropical storm nearing my coastline then in to the GOM.. This scenario is NOT out of the realm. I back my proof up with scientific facts, which proves I am NOT a wishcaster.
Personal remarks removed~danielw
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Sep 17 2007 07:19 PM |
|
|
Canadian Model and other Discussions
|
"Never, say never, when dealing with the weather" also known as the Humberto 2007 slogan.
Someone posted "2007 The Season With No Reason" the other night.
Now to today's various Discussions. (Excerpts with links to full Discussion)
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/discuss.shtml
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
304 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007
VALID 00Z TUE SEP 18 2007 - 12Z WED SEP 19 2007
...THE FRONT WHICH DELIVERED THE COOL AIR A FEW DAYS AGO CURRENTLY
LIES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BUT IS FORECAST
TO RETREAT AS A WARM FRONT AND APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THAT ALONG WITH THE FORMATION OF A
BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAHAMAS SHOULD RESULT
IN INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND RAIN CHANCES FROM THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST THROUGH THE CAROLINAS GOING INTO TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdspd.html
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
959 AM EDT MON SEP 17 2007
VALID 12Z FRI SEP 21 2007 - 12Z MON SEP 24 2007
...THE 06Z/17 DGEX IS UNUSABLE BECAUSE OF THE WAY IT PULLS TROPICAL
ENERGY NWD INTO THE SERN STATES AGAINST ALL OTHER GUIDANCE.
...YDAYS FINAL FCST INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK LOW TO TRACK NWWD
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO FITS ACCEPTABLY WITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF
00Z MODEL SOLNS... SO WILL MAINTAIN CONTINUITY WITH THIS FEATURE.
LATEST THINKING FROM HPC/TPC COORDINATION WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE
NEW FINAL FCST LATER TODAY.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/preepd/preepd.html
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
318 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007
VALID 12Z THU SEP 20 2007 - 12Z MON SEP 24 2007
...PLAINS TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...
AFTER ELIMINATING THE DGEX AND CANADIAN AS OUTLIERS IN BRINGING
TROPICAL ENERGY WELL N INTO THE SERN STATES...AND THE NAM ALONG
THE ERN GULF COAST REGION THU DAY 3...THE PATTERN IS FAIRLY
STRAIGHTFORWARD.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
611 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007
FINAL DAY 1...DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID SEP 18/0000 UTC THRU SEP 21/0000 UTC
DAY 1...
...FL...
ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE NORTH OF WEAK E/W STNRY BNDRY WL ALSO
SUPPORT SCT SHOWERS ACRS A LARGE SECTION OF THE FL PENINSULA. AS
HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST 24 HRS..SOME POCKET OF MDT TO
HEAVY RAIN IS PSBL ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...THOUGH WITH TIME SOME DRIER AIR
SHOULD WORK SWD ALONG THE NRN FL COAST. HEAVIER GFS AMOUNTS LOOK
BETTER HERE.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
119 PM EDT MON SEP 17 2007
VALID SEP 17/1200 UTC THRU SEP 21/0000 UTC
MODEL TRENDS...
...LOW LIFTING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS...
THE NAM HAS TRENDED FASTER AND DEEPER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS
HAS ALSO TRENDED FASTER WITH THE LOW.
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
...LOW LIFTING NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS...
THE NAM IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE GEM GLOBAL MODEL IS SIMILAR TO THE NAM...BUT THESE
TWO MODELS HAVE SHOWN THIS DEVELOPED BIAS WITH SYSTEMS ORIGINATING
IN THIS REGION THE PAST WARM SEASON. WILL THEREFORE RECOMMEND A
SOLUTION CLOSER TO THE FASTER...FLATTER GFS/ECMWF/UKMET MODEL
CONSENSUS.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdhmd.html
After reading all of the above Discussions. I'll stick with the satellite loops, Also known as "What You see... Is what you get"~danielw
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 17 2007 09:51 PM |
|
Re: Canadian Model and other Discussions
|
Great point about Humberto. If I remember correctly, I was reading in some places "no development" from this system. Watched that system
for several days. Tagged an invest, then not an invest, then an invest again and well, we all know what happened with him. I got a first
hand look at what happened with Humberto. The models are great, but ultimately, the storms "have a mind of their own" so to speak.
Most important, things change daily. So, let's just wait and see what plays out. Nothing wrong with making predictions though.
| ltpat228 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 17 2007 11:34 PM |
|
Re: Canadian Model and other Discussions
|
Quote:
Someone posted "2007 The Season With No Reason" the other night.
Me me ME - I did.
Ha Ha.
Well I did...especially after Allan's continual forecasts for Humberto turned out to be correct (for the most part).
The Season With No Reason simply came to mind and I tell you, that's certainly what I'm observing so far in 2007!
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Sep 17 2007 11:36 PM |
|
|
Re: Canadian Model and other Discussions
|
Quote:
Nothing wrong with making predictions though.
You hit the nail on the Head.
Predictions are fine... as long as they are in the Forecast Lounge
They will most probably get booted in the Talkback Forum.
Especially with a Landfalling Tropical Cyclone.
| ltpat228 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Sep 17 2007 11:51 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Canadian Model and other Discussions
|
Quote:
Nothing wrong with making predictions though.
Predictions are fine... as long as they are in the Forecast Lounge
They will most probably get booted in the Talkback Forum.
Especially with a Landfalling Tropical Cyclone.
Oh yes, I enjoy reading predictions from certain posters I trust.
In fact, I've been visiting this site a little over 2 years and just a few months ago figured out where this lounge place is - ha ha.
Many of my posts were sent to the graveyard, or moved to another location (some I never ever found!).
It is easy to post in the incorrect area as many of us inadvertently and unkowningly do.
This site is so chocked full of information and links, it takes quite a while to navigate.
So I don't post that much and have resorted to PMs.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 03:04 AM |
| Attachment |
|
|
|
Ingrid...she's back
|
While waiting on the satellites to come out of their eclipse. I checked the NRLMY tropics page and...
Ingrid appears to be back!
The 0530Z sat shot is poor as it's from another satellite. But Ingrid-appears to have out run the shear and is in a nice round shape with outflow channels building.
Estimated position is 16N/ 60W or just east of the Island of Guadeloupe.
Perfect comma shape with around 270degrees of outflow channel.
This might be a problem. However I noticed data from a USAF Hurricane Hunter in the St Croix area on Sunday. So they may have a plane or two close by.
see attachment for 0530Z sat shot