MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 10:47 AM |
Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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7:12pm edt, September 18 2007 Update:
The wave off the Florida coast has been organizing a bit in the day and may have the chance to become a depression (tropical or perhaps subtropical) in the next day or so, but likely not until it crosses into the Gulf of Mexico. We'll be watching it.
At the least, a good deal of rain for Florida is likely tomorrow.
Conditions in the Gulf of Mexico favor development, but not rapid development. More to come as it happens.
To discuss, we have the post in the Forecast Lounge, for guesses at suggestions about what the storm may do
Also, for reporting right now conditions in your area or anything locally noteworthy about the system, here.
Joe Bastardi Video on this wave
12:45pm, September 18 2007 Update:
Invest 93L just declared near 25.8N 79.2W, or approximately 70 nautical miles E of Miami Florida.
Current conditions appear marginally favorable for further development of this system. Persons in Florida need to carefully monitor the progress of this potential development. Early guidance indicators are for intensification as the deep layer wind analysis appears to be improving toward favorable development parameters.
More to come....
TT
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There are no storms being tracked right now, and no "invest" areas, but there are a few areas of interest in the Tropics.
First, Ingrid dissipated yesterday and the remnants remain northeast of the Caribbean, conditions there are not likely to do much with the system. So odds are it won't redevelop.
Another wave east of the Caribbean may do something later, but it's not looking all that great either.
Finally a lot of energy has moved into the Bahamas, and is tracking west. Not enough time to really develop before getting into Florida, but it may eventually track into the Gulf and form into something there. So folks from Florida to Texas will want to watch that area. There will likely be a lot of shear in the Western Gulf by the time that system would reach that way, so too intense of development is unlikely, but still storms in the Gulf can be quite unpredictable at times intensity wise. Worth watching at least. It will likely make a very rainy day here in Florida, however.
{{StormCarib}}
Radar Loops
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne FL}}
{{radarlink|jax|Jacksonville FL}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami, FL}}
{{radarlink|tba|Tampa Bay, FL}}
{{StormLinks|93L|93|10|2007|1|93L (East of Florida Wave)}}
{{StormLinks|Ingrid|08|8|2007|2|Ingrid}}
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 12:41 PM |
Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas
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With regards to the area of disturbed weather just to the east of Florida, models have hinted at possible tropical cyclogenisis, in part due to a reflection of an upper low now cutting off over the East Gulf/Florida area. As I am looking at the local Miami radar this a.m., I am now for the first time, seeing what appears to be a tight, albiet weak cyclonic circulation just to the west of Andros Island ( east of Miami ). Of course, all of the precip. remains to the east and north of this, however would be interesting to see if this may simply be an "eddy" or what may initiate as a developing surface low. Better question would be whether or not it might "sit" or immediately move westward.
| jojoindian6 |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 02:32 PM |
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Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas
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I know you said the chances are very slim that the remnants of Ingrid would regenerate, but if the system is still able to be identified as related to Ingrid and did regenerate, would it be renamed? Just curious. I forget how it works exactly when a hurricane changes basins. Would this situation be handled the same way? Thanks for your knowledge.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 03:42 PM |
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Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas
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Re: Ingrid I am not positive, but if there remained an identifiable vortex perhaps the re_naming is automatic; but where as here the vortex seems to be opened in to a wave, it is discretionary if it regenerates as to how to name it. The wave still exists and is still trying to fire convection, and technically it is remenants of Ingrid. Once the shear lessens will it regeneragte?
I would guess 15-20% on that.
Things closer to Florida are getting mopre interesting.
Of radar is used it is possible to begin to detect a circulation between Andros and Freeport almost due east of Bimini. However the situation is complicated because the mid-upper low is tumbling to the WSW.
Development is probable according to many models, but not for two days and then in the E GOM...However, I will be closely watching how the suspicious area in the Bahamas begins to attract convection over the next several hours, or not.
EDS
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 03:47 PM |
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Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas
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Current conditions in the Bahamas are hostile.. the same amount fo shear that ripped Ingrid apart, though this "area of disturbed weather" is large. Conditions could improve later on today and tommorrow for something to happen, right now, all bets are off. Ingrids remnants still remain disorganized and now a 5% chance of regeneration, though some models are doing that. The wave in back of X-Ingrid looks ok, could be tagged if it can gather more convection and maybe a LLC. So I guess sthe tropics are neither quiet or active.. just a so so week.
*12:10 p.m., Invest 93L has been tagged near the South Florida coastline*
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 04:17 PM |
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Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas
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Weather is definitely deteriorating here in SE Florida. I'm about 10 min S of PBIA and we just had a squall line move through here -NE to SW moving about 30 mph with about 3/4" of rain in 15 min. Hasn't rained like that in weeks. Felt like a feeder band. Something is brewing. 93L is now up on Navy site
http://intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?location=USFL0512&animate=true
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 04:43 PM |
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Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas
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Shear has dramatically decreased where 93L is located.. 30 knots all the way down to 10-15 knots. This should allow some intensification, though it should be slow to occur, sort of the response I expect to see on the next TWO. There's been some discussion on the wunderground blogs on how strong it will get, nobody will know until it developes. the 12zGFS is now showing a 1008 mlb storm in the GOM, though the same was with Felix, even after it was a major Hurricane. We'll see what happens, can't wait to see the GFDL and HRMF.
here is the new, updated cimms shear map
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html
| typhoon_tip |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 04:45 PM |
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Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas
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Important update just went up on Main Page.
Invest 93L declared not too far E of Miami Florida...
Slowly developing situation.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 05:24 PM |
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Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas
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observation.
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 20 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 30 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 34 kts
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.94 in
Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
Air Temperature (ATMP): 73.4 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 73.
This is a buoy by the bahamas pretty strong winds out there right now
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 05:37 PM |
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Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas
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Radar view of 93L...
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 06:10 PM |
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Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas
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Windshear continues to be around 25-30kt around a strong upper low over SW florida. Thunderstorm activity is being enhanced by the upper low also. 93L still doesnt have any sw winds near the center. Slowly conditions will improve over time, but not at the moment.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 06:19 PM |
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Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas
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Any idea as to when this thing will start moving west?Just wondering if this will be Florida's "Humberto".On and off storms here all day.Very warm sst's around 87 degrees.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 06:21 PM |
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Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas
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Been watching this area on and off all morning... was expecting to see a Invest tag... We got both Sats and Radar and most likely a few ships in that general area that should help keep good tabs on this invest. Until it moves over into the GOM. Upper level winds are a little hostile from the SW over this area... but should weaken some in the next 24 hrs... This will be a good chance to see how warm the Gulf Stream current is...
Vis Sat loop
NHC runs on 93L - 1600 UTC TUE SEP 18 2007
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 06:29 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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check out the gfdl model if this takes place then it has more time over the water before crossing florida
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 06:36 PM |
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Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas
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Hi Scott:
The wind shear data reported by other sources is a decreasing (less than) 15kts situation. The visible just posted suggests SW movement of the low clouds south of G Bahama Island. I think a circulation is forming there and that is confirmed by the radar presentation. Some convection blow ups this afternoon too.
EDS
| Tony Cristaldi |
| (NWS Meteorologist) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 06:47 PM |
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Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas
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Shear really isn't a consideration this early in "the game", so to speak, because the primary mechanism for upward vertical motion, and resultant surface pressure falls/low development is divergent jet forcing. Been peeking at the RUC analysis fields and they've been showing some pretty sick H25 divergence and H70 omega (upward vertical motion) fields since early this morning offshore the breadth of the Florida east coast. Looks like some sort of low level vort south of GBI and west of Andros.
The evolution of the developing cutoff low on watervapor imagery is quite dramatic, with a nice "doughnut hole" developing over Tampa Bay. By tonight, the water vapor presentation will be striking - likely resembling one of those wrapped up occluded winter surface lows you see south of the Aleutians.
Over the next day or so, there should be some pretty big rainfall totals along the Florida east coast, and especially over south Florida.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 06:49 PM |
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Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas
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You are right, new obs are showing sw winds and shear has dramatically decrease to 15 knots over the center.. still 30 knots on the batch of rain over the center.. lets not forget, this storm is broad.. everyone in Florida will get rains from it.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 07:00 PM |
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Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas
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Quote:
You are right, new obs are showing sw winds and shear has dramatically decrease to 15 knots over the center.. still 30 knots on the batch of rain over the center.. lets not forget, this storm is broad.. everyone in Florida will get rains from it.
Per tony, the Upper Level Low that is about over tampa... Water Vapor should continue to the wsw and be enough far away i think for 93L to get going sometime late tomorrow afternoon... or into thursday morning... i was looking at TCPOD NUMBER.....07-116
.... and AF is not schedule to fly until the 20th... but i bet if this invest holds... we could see 6 hly flights starting at noon tomorrow? And i would think that one of the NOAA planes would be in the mix to on research mission... if this can hold against the shear... which i think it can.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 07:03 PM |
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Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas
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Actually... lol ... NOAA 43 is in the Bahama's on the way back to tampa?... there at 23,000ft, At 18:41:00Z (last observation), the observation was 64 miles (102 km) to the SE (144°) from Nassau, Bahamas.... WONDER if they may do a "fly by" of our invest...
I'll keep watchin to see in about 10 mins they should be close if they keep current heading..
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 07:17 PM |
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Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas
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Well doesn't look like NOAA 43 is going to turn towards the invest.... there heading right towards Miami... They may not have enough fuel... or they don't have enough time, or the invest tag didn't go up into they were already in flight from Barbado's, on ferry flight back home. But they are getting about 20mph winds at 23,000ft from the From 263° at 17 knots (From the W at ~ 19.5 mph) on avg..
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 07:21 PM |
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Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas
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The obs on the shear map are off.. bad data...its still around 25-30kts.It will be a day or 2 before the upper low weakens.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 07:24 PM |
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Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas
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yeah Doug the circulation looks near where you said....but I think it will reorganize north more near 27.5N alittle north of grandbahama. I think Tony gives a good obs on his statement.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 07:24 PM |
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Re: No Storms, But Watching a Few Areas
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http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF
Where the center is, shear is 15-20 knots.. not 30 knots.. it is in fact 30 knots where the broad moisture is.. but the center where the deepest convection is and where the pressures are falling with high winds are at 15-20 knots which is marginal for developent
* when I say high winds, I only mean 30-35 mph.*
* 4:24 p.m. as of the new update of the cimms shear map, shear has increased to 20 knots over the center*
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 08:54 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Current Conditions in Palm Coast, FL
I lost power for a second there, winds are sustained around 25-30 mph. gusts around 35-40 mph. with some drizzle, Under a flood watch and a wind advisory, maybe a Tornado Watch later on tonight.
I see a better COC on the radar in Miami.. looks like it may outwit the 20 knots, but that remains to be seen.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 09:27 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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looks to me that the COC may have become enlongated some.... the showers to the NW have now moved over the center...so there want be any good way to watch the COC until morning... the radar beam from KAMX is shooting well above/over the surface swirl... no way to see how its doing at surface... there is still a spinn there... but the storms are still getting sheared to the North by the Upper Level low in the Eastern GOM. I think tonight we will see some strong storms blow up.... due to location of low, but with shear, once the storms reach over 20k they should get blown apart...
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 09:53 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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I wouldn't put too much stock in the model runs right now since the system still actually hasn't developed into anything yet. We also don't know what the condition of it will be once it does emerge into the GOM. This looks to be setting up as one of those situations we will have to watch on a daily basis because there is NOTHING that is clear cut yet. We still don't know how strong the ridge will be or how strong the trough coming in from the west will be either. As others have posted...everyone along the whole gulf coast should be keeping tabs on our invest because at this point it's anyone's guess where it may end up.
Shawn
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 10:18 PM |
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Western Bahamas Buoy
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blowing 35-45mph
pressure dropping like a rock.
http://seaboard.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=spgf1&meas=wdpr&uom=E
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Sep 18 2007 11:18 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Reports from west end grand bahama island.
09 18 6:00 pm ENE 38 42 - - - - 29.79 -0.12 73.8 - 65.3 - - -
09 18 5:00 pm ENE 28 32 - - - - 29.88 -0.03 73.6 - 68.4 - - -
09 18 4:00 pm ENE 24 27 - - - - 29.89 -0.05 73.6 - 68.0 - - -
09 18 3:00 pm ENE 27 30 - - - - 29.91 -0.04 73.0 - 67.6 - - -
09 18 2:00 pm NE 24 27 - - - - 29.91 -0.05 72.3 - 72.1 - - -
09 18 1:00 pm NNE 30 34 - - - - 29.94 -0.02 73.4 - 73.0 - - -
09 18 12:00 pm N 25 27 - - - - 29.95 +0.01 80.4 - 75.4 - - -
09 18 11:00 am ENE 10 12 - - - - 29.95 +0.01 85.6 - 75.7 - - -
09 18 10:00 am ENE 11 13 - - - - 29.96 +0.03 82.8 - 75.7 - - -
09 18 9:00 am E 9 10 - - - - 29.94 +0.01 83.8 - 76.8 - - -
09 18 8:00 am ENE 9 10 - - - - 29.94 +0.02 81.9 - 75.4 - - -
09 18 7:00 am E 7 9 - - - - 29.93 +0.01 79.5 - 71.2 - - -
09 18 6:00 am E 12 13 - - - - 29.93 +0.00 80.1 - 74.3 - - -
09 18 5:00 am E 14 16 - - - - 29.91 -0.03 79.9 - 74.7 - - -
09 18 4:00 am E 13 15 - - - - 29.92 -0.04 80.2 - 73.2 - - -
09 18 3:00 am E 14 15 - - - - 29.93 -0.04 80.8 - 71.6 - - -
09 18 2:00 am E 9 11 - - - - 29.95 -0.03 81.1 - 72.5 - - -
09 18 1:00 am E 14 16 - - - - 29.96 -0.02 81.5 - 74.1 - - -
09 18 12:00 am E 17 19 - - - - 29.97 +0.00 82.0 - 73.0 - - -
09 17 11:00 pm ENE 10 12 - - - - 29.98 +0.00 81.3 - 70.5 - - -
09 17 10:00 pm E 16 18 - - - - 29.98 +0.02 80.2 - 73.9 - - -
09 17 9:00 pm NE 22 24 - - - - 29.98 +0.01 82.4 - 74.8 - - -
09 17 8:00 pm NE 14 16 - - - - 29.97 +0.01 83.8 - 73.2 - - -
09 17 7:00 pm NNE 15 16 - - - - 29.97 +0.00 84.0 - 72.5
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 12:17 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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well...i saw this in my email earlier, but didn't pay attention until i got back to the computer.... NHC issued a new TCPOD - 116*** this afternoon, after they had a 9:30 one... There sending up the Jet to do a SYNOPTIC mission... get data of surrounding area around the system... haven't seen the flight plan yet.... expect one in the morning though.. what i was interested is there is a recon mission schedule for low level invest NEAR 25.5N 88.0W AT 20/1800Z..., but the 1800 UTC map from TAFB is showing the low to move NW into the Florida coast
8:05pm edt TAFB discussion
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE W ATLC BETWEEN THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS AND THE E COAST OF FLORIDA ANALYZED BY A 1012 MB LOW
NEAR 26N79W.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 12:21 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Well Seeing as though I have been extremly busy the past few days, I logged on to see whats going on and looks like there is definatly an Invest off the coast of Miami (to the East) and this seems to be what I was looking for since I have gotten down from NH to Miami. Call me crazy, but like I said in earlier posts, I want to see what a hurricane looks like.
Anyway:
Current conditions here in Cutler Ridge, Miami, Florida are as follows:
Currently 81 Degrees Farenheit
Dew Point: 70 Degrees Farenheit
Humidity: 68%
Visibility: 10 miles
Pressure: 29.90 in and steady
Winds: From the North East at 15 mph
10 Day Forcast calls for: Rain, Rain, Rain and more Rain, with a touch of scattered thunderstorms at least until next thursday (According to Weather Channel)
Currently: Scattered Showers and the wind tends to speed up every once in a while here, we had a few squals earlier, something that reminded me of a quick, fast paced rainstorm with wind associated. A few rumbles of thunder in the area, right now, nothing too bad.
I will continue to keep an eye on this Invest! This has got me pretty excited!
Here is a model track of Invest 93 from Skeetobite:
http://skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=93
I would be preparing for a possible tropical storm in the next few days if this Invest is what it looks to be on radar, and the possibility of another "Katrina" situation if this storm goes to the Gulf and to LA like models predicting
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 12:29 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Well, Mr. JB over at Accuweather seems to be completely convinced that this is a Texas storm and that it could be stronger than talked about. I don't put too much stock in what he says because he seems to kind of be wishy washy alot. I'm guessing he thinks the ridge will stay strong enough for 93L's treck all the way across. I guess that remains to be seen. I bet anything within the next couple of days he will be changing that...that seems to be what he does and then turns around and brags that he was right about it...lol.
Shawn
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 12:32 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Don't look to the models too much right now. None of them have any kind of real handle on this system right now. We should know a little more once the one flight checks out the air patterns and once this system actually makes it into the GOM. Models are useless right now...at least I think.
Shawn
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 12:36 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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lol...never mind... the surface map from TAFB is showing the westward movement in the 24 hr surface map.... Guess the 1800utc map maker put the arrow the wrong way?
Here's the 24 map from TAFB
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc24_latestBW.gif
Here's the 72 hr map from TAFB
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atlsfc72_latestBW.gif
**Note above links will update i think every 6 hrs**
For those surfers...
Wave/Wind forecast in 72 hrs
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl72_latestBW.gif
See ya in the water on Friday-Monday... I know St. Andrews state park will be busy!
www.mrsurfs.com **surf report for PCB*
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 12:36 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Well than can you explain what looks to be going on with the radar? This looks to be a LARGE storm
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=AMX&product=N0S&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 12:53 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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debris what are you referring to? What link are you using?
| debris |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 12:59 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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gut feeling and this - http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html
the movement of everything in the gulf looks to be feeding this low.
that's all.... I'm no one really.
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 01:09 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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I think the bahama system has com a long way today we have pressure falling winds increasing, looks and feels like a the origions of a tropical depression. Cant wait to see what the overnight has planned for the sytem.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 01:35 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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well the 00z runs didn't really change much on the NHC model runs... although its starting with a 1010mb low... instead of a 1012mb from 1800utc.
scroll down to 93L
http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/models/07091900
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 01:39 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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The latest dvorak for 93L is 18/2345 UTC 25.3N 78.8W ST1.5/1.5 93L
Notcie the ST class not T
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 01:50 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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yeah i saw that ST reading... there is basically no convection near the low right now.. i have up level II nexrad data from Miami... you can see signs of where the CRC would be, but its hard to pinpoint... no convection... lets see what tonight brings.... also see now that the low is drifiting to the west or 280 at about 4 mph...
This may be the best loop for most all to read...understand... its a Base Reflectivity 1km Mosaic... all radars combined on base reflec. see little showers moving to the ssw off of miami... i would put the broad center just ENE of that about by 20 miles or so..... at this rate... this looks to me that this may come into the SE GOM... almost closer to the keys than as opposed to more up near Fort Myers, which i was originally thinking this afternoon... i am starting to think the low is going to pass close to the NHC..
**also looks like the GFDL is still having trouble with this area at the get go*** 00UTC
This Floater - Infrared Channel 2 Loop Shortwave IR ... good at seeing mid-low level at night... mainly FOG/mositure etc... but at the 0045 and 0115 images i think you can see a better defined area where the CRC is at, off the coast of Miami.. there is two small bands showing up.. both in nexrad data and sat... the broad area of cirulation would be to the ene of that i would think... **note the NWS FRONTS overlay i think is just a tad too far south**
| OrlandoHurricane |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 02:51 AM |
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Ingrid Showing a Pulse this Evening
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The remnants of Ingrid are showing some increased convection this evening. As it moves slowly north it will be coming out of the strong shear which has torn it apart the past four days. In the next few days conditions should reverse itself and Ingrid may start making a comeback as it comes underneath high pressure in the upper levels.
The NRL site continues to monitor it and has a nice close-up of it.
Not sure if it will ever be a U.S. threat, though, a ridge of high pressure to it's north may put it on a westward path for a while.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 04:25 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Rain is currently offshore here and I keep reading everything here. Maybe if it can stay off shore a little while and get some steady convection going but... just because there is low pressure and some stormy rain does not mean this has a center.
Barometer drops when the weather gets bad... simple and true.
I have a feeling we will be watching this a while but with the storm developing in the epac and with the strength of the ULL and others.. I have a problem buying into it being much beyond a semi-hybrid rainmaker.
We'll see... hard to believe it's so close by.
|
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 04:58 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L
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Ship report in the last hour indicates the Low Pressure center should be somewhere near:
SHIP S 0400z 26.10N -80.10W NNE 7.2KT 0.5M 4.0SEC 1010.0MB -1.0MB/3 hrs 26.1C (SST)
Buoy/ Ship observations-300nm radius of Satellite Center
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 05:07 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L
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that should put it somewhere near the coast... which i am looking at some local wx stations in the miami area...to see what there conditions are like..... and with radar data from Miami... seems it would put the CRC very near the coast of SE Florida. Notice in the last few hours .... very small tropical rain showers have fired up just off the coast of SE Florida...
FWYF1 lat: 25.59 lon -80.10 is just off Key Biscayne... so thats long. runs there to coast, but the lat is too far to the south of the ship obs?... also.. there is a weather station to the north of that near sunny isles beach, there pressure is down to 29.77... not sure if its calibrated right.. others in the area are in 29.85-90 range.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 05:23 AM |
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Bahamas Observations-Last hour
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Nassau Airport, Bahamas, The (MYNN) 25-03N 077-28W 7M
Sep 19, 2007 - 12:00 AM EDT / 2007.09.19 0400 UTC
Wind: Variable at 2 MPH (2 KT):0
Visibility: greater than 7 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: mostly cloudy
Temperature: 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point: 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity: 94%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.88 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
ob: MYNN 190400Z VRB02KT 9999 SCT020 BKN080 25/24 Q1012 RE35
Georgetown, Exuma, Bahamas, The (MYEG) 23-28-30N 075-46-00W 3M
Sep 19, 2007 - 01:01 AM EDT / 2007.09.19 0501 UTC
Wind: from the SSW (210 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 KT):0
Visibility: 10 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: mostly cloudy
Weather: light rain with thunder; Lightning observed
Precipitation last hour: 0.19 inches
Temperature: 73 F (23 C)
Dew Point: 69 F (21 C)
Relative Humidity: 88%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.91 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
ob: MYEG 190501Z AUTO 21005KT 10SM -TSRA SCT029 SCT038 BKN049 23/21 A2991 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT ALQS P0019
Freeport, Grand Bahama, Bahamas, The (MYGF) 26-33N 078-42W 11M
Sep 18, 2007 - 08:00 PM EDT / 2007.09.19 0000 UTC
Wind: from the E (090 degrees) at 10 MPH (9 KT):0
Visibility: greater than 7 mile(s):0
Sky conditions: mostly cloudy
Weather: showers in the vicinity
Temperature: 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point: 71 F (22 C)
Relative Humidity: 83%
Pressure (altimeter): 29.9 in. Hg (1012 hPa)
ob: MYGF 190000Z 09009KT 9999 VCSH FEW020 SCT050 BKN070 25/22 A2990 RMK RE58
http://www.bahamasweather.org.bs/current/conditions/#
Based on last hour's wind directions from the 3 sites.
Freeport would be North of the center.
Georgetown would be ESE of the center.
Nassau would be closest to the center, using the "variable winds" and lowest pressure of the three sites, at 29.88 inches.
| Davida G |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 05:32 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Hastings Florida checking in here. We are getting some major rain and wind tonight. I went out to check the property, make sure the generator was still covered and things are just nasty out. I know it isn't a tropical storm yet, but it sure FEELS like one with the way the rain is coming through in waves with the heavy gusts of wind, tree limbs and shake all over the place and the sometimes sideways wall of water, but very little lightening and most of that is way off in the distance. We live out in an area called Flagler Estates and I am worried with all this rain we are going to lose some of the roads overnight. Many of them like ours are still unpaved and wash out way too easy. We will see what the morning brings. If nothing else, at least this will help out with the drought conditions in the state.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 06:42 AM |
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Re: Bahamas Observations-Last hour
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danielw, rock on my friend! I am really glad that you've posted those observations. Keep those coming. At the surface, the lower pressures are likely further east. into the Bahamas, and could transition even a little further east (will get back to that in a minute). For the minute...The radar signature moving into the Miami Dade area on radar is likely a vorticity within a larger circulation envelope. However, it is also the same relative area we were all looking at earlier for possible development. Frommy standpoint, that vorticity willlikely wash out as it moves inland within the larger area of low pressure. Also, if this is the trigger point for possible tropical development (which I highly doubt it will be), it is too close to the ULL and will likely fail to aquire tropical characteristics.
That said, here in SW Florida, it is a very comfortable summer night. Compared to usual summer evenings, this is not a tropical evening. It is relatively cool and the humidity feels pretty low. It is not often that I like to open the windows to the fresh air summer air, cuase the summer air feels pretty hot and humid most of the time...but this is one night that has tempted me. If a true tropical low was off Miami, I've lived here long enough to tell you that this evening would not feel this comfortable. There again, the area coming into miami dade is not tropical and likely not the culprit of possible tropical development (Just too close to the ULL).
From this standpoint, I will puase on model developments until tropical development comes to fruition. Likewise... The probable hot pocket for development is likely further east, from where danielw pointed out and to the east of there. If you follow the shortwave satellite loops , you can pick out the low level flow. It is tightening back there, so it is not a bad area to watch that area further east. If true tropical development happens, it will happen further back there. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
Mean time, for folks on the east coast of Florida, not a bad time to remember that there was once a system named Ingrid out there. The systems remenants continue to show a defined low level of vorticity. Every time t-storms develop, they rip away again as shear continues. This has supported a mostly WNW-NW path. Come wednesday night, the shear will decrease and something may come back to life...Likewise, the lack of convection allowed the former Ingrid to missit's chance out to sea. It should be moving under some decent ridging to maintain a WNW-NW motion regardless of what happens. That said, keep one half of an eye on it in case it re-forms...maybe 93L is a teaser in general....
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 07:14 AM |
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Re: Bahamas Observations-Last hour
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Roughly 26N 75W
I can see the Invest attempting to reconfigure around that area tonight. Already tonight, there are hints that this indeed happening, while what was being tracked as 93Ls LLC earlier could easily, as Dem mentions, end up a transient vortice that spins itself out as it pushes inland. And really, I can't seem to buy a westerly surface wind in the vicinity of that early LLC, any longer.
93L is not a purely tropical system. I would suggest that waiting to experience or witness tell-tale signs of tropical cyclogenesis is fool's bait just yet. For now, we should probably think along the lines of Barry, or Gabrielle, or 96L, for recent analogous features which did, or maybe did, develop into an upgradeable system. In each of those cases, it was likely equally, if not even more appropriate, to apply the Hebert-Poteat technique when attempting to ascertain the Invest's legitimacy, and intensity.
Getting subtropical development so close to Florida during the peak of the season is most likely a little unusual, but given how often fronts have dropped south this season, shouldn't really be that surprising. This probably won't last for long, however. Water temps are just too warm and the air on 93s south and east far too juicy for whatever develops to be more subtropical, than tropical, I would bet. Will need to wash out the dry on its north and west. This might further limit development, initially, and keep some lid on the completeness of tropical transition. But, this becomes less likely the farther east 93 may end up forming/reforming.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 07:24 AM |
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Re: Bahamas Observations-Last hour
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Very good statements by Dem and Cield. Also Ingrids weak circulation is still getting sheared apart...its not out of the question of this becoming better organized in a couple days if it holds its circulation.
Shear has hampered the invest today thru the night.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 08:04 AM |
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Re: Bahamas Observations-Last hour
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While we're passing around compliments lol
Ditto, and then some, on the "x" Ingrid comments! I've also been keeping a keen eye out on it, as have, obviously, so many of us, as well as the experts at the NHC and the military. Once the eclipse cleared tonight, I have no other description for x Ingrid than "rebirth." Remains to be seen just how strong a rebirth this is, but without doubt, shear has lightened up a bit, and, as is often the case with a tenacious feature in a moderate shear environment, the strong upper level winds are fanning the current convection, without outright killing the system.. and sometimes, deepening the system, as is the case with 93, as well.
| flarrfan |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 10:30 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Quote:
Call me crazy, but like I said in earlier posts, I want to see what a hurricane looks like.
I just want to see what a tropical depression looks like on my below-normal rain gauge in west central Florida. You are indeed crazy...I wish I had a time machine so I could send you to a trailer park in Florida City on August 24, 1992...you would never wishcast again.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 12:05 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Wind shear has now decreased to 10 knots over the center of 93L, thus making it favorable for development. Durinal Maximum did half of what I expected, does show a nice convective band of storms headed my way.. haven't checked the models yet but I doubt there any changes. It's all a wait and see, lets make this fun, if I was a wishcaster, I would say category 1 Hurricane in Melbourne LOL.. Moderators, feel free to delete that part. Satellite presentation looks subtropical to me, I would call this Subtropical Storm Jerry later on today, if it continues to organize and it should due to the favorable conditions. Recon should be in there later on today, we'll get some really good info in 93L by then.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 12:16 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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I dont think recon is going in until tomorrow. Today it will be over land.
NHC is expecting this to become a tropical cyclone tomorrow after reemerging over the gulf. In the mean time, lots of much needed rain for us in central florida.
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 01:33 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Looking at sat. loops this a.m. ( both IR and WV ), this is so far certainly not looking tropcal, given the wrap around effect being caused by the upper low. That said, given time I see no way that a warm core reflection at the surface does not eventually occur. Question, as always continues to be when and where. More and more however I am coming to the conclusion that the models have been fairly impressive in their longer range ability to pick up some type of cyclongenesis event. Basically though, I am getting to the point of seeing some model concensus, and just determining that the time range is more often than not, a good deal farther away than what the models indicate. I too believe that perhaps a low level reflection may be occuring farther east than originally thought, and again later than anticipated as well.
Finally, in defense of StrTrackerMiami, the following was written by another post:
...I just want to see what a tropical depression looks like on my below-normal rain gauge in west central Florida. You are indeed crazy...I wish I had a time machine so I could send you to a trailer park in Florida City on August 24, 1992...you would never wishcast again....
Lets all keep in mind that this forum consists of those of us who range in academic and/or historic meteorlogical knowledge that ranges widely from bonified MET's to simply those who are weather enthusiasts. That said, all of us who participate by writing posts, or even those simply on the "sidelines" who read the posts, are ALL very interested in the weather and tropical cyclones, at the very least. For the sake of intellegent communication as well as moderation in the acceptance of others' views, let us at least respect one distinction between "shear fascination" and "wish-casting". For one to predict cyclogenesis and/or storm landfall, based upon a pure guess or "want" - this would be wish-casting. Someone who would wish to see the effects of a hurricane, is not wish-casting...., nor are they crazy ( death, injury, and destruction aside of course ). Whether or not moderators may wish to re-direct such opinion to another forum is their business, however the fascination of being able to actually witness the effects of a hurricane are what drive many to Meteorology as a hobby or a proffession. I for one, have chased hurricanes for years, and do so soley for the shear awe of that which I am able to witness ( and hopefully live to tell ). I am intellegent enough to know my limits of risk, and certainly do not wish any harm to anyone. My being at the point of landfall however, has no impact on the storms' impact on others, nor does one have anything to do with each other. Finally, I certainely have very mixed feelings regarding a dangerous landfall event where I live, but once again, I have no "powers" to impact such an event from happening.
So to this I can tell you, after Andrew, Charlie, Hugo, and on...., I do know the likes of the '26 storm. Do I wish it upon anyone else? Heck no. Whether or not I, or anyone elso would like to witness such an event ( safely ), is their business.
| weatherguy08 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 02:22 PM |
Models
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Looking at the 12Z Model Runs, it appears that some of the 12Z runs, especially the BAM Models and the CLIPER5, are initializing the system to far to the north and west. The 12Z discussion from the NHC says that the center of circulation is "located...near 26N, 79 west." The models are initializing the system as far north as 27.5 N, 80 W. On this page, http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/, I tend to favor the solutions by the Late-Cycle track guidance and the GFS Ensembles as it appears that these models are initializing the system about right. This puts landfall between the mouth of the Mississippi River and the LA-TX Border, so basically Louisiana. Also, the latest HPC guidance is bring a low pressure to near Houston, TX by days 5 and 6. I favor a track more westerly than northerly. My prediction is for a landfall near the Louisiana-Texas border on Saturday or Sunday. As for intensity, I would expect a strong tropical storm or minimal category one hurricane at landfall. GOM waters are warm (SST's in the mid 80s) and wind shear looks like it will remain relatively low.
My prediction in summary: landfall near the Louisiana-Texas border on Saturday afternoon as a 70 MPH tropical storm.
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 02:23 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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NRL has officially thrown up their "Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert" for 93L. They have it moving toward the NNW...interesting. I have seen a lot of talk on here and other sites about the models and where they are going with this system. The models are useless at this point because all of them will be initialized wrong from the get go since 93L has still not developed yet. There is no telling where the actual center will be initialized once (if) it finally develops and gets classified. Today is more of a lull day because it will be over land. We won't really have any grasp of anything until tomorrow sometime...until then just take this time to make sure you have all things in order if you are anywhere along the gulf coast.
Shawn
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 02:57 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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93L is definitely a "Broad" area of low pressure, to say the least. Should be interesting to see where
the storm translates down to the surface, "if" it does. Looks as though Ingrid is not willing to give up
the fight. Moderate convection continues around what's left of Ingrid, and while the chances are probally
better for 93L to develop, I wouldn't write Ingrid off yet, as it should move into an area slightly more
favorable for developement in the near future. It's been kinda a wierd season. To follow a quote:
"2007: The Season With No Reason"
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 03:38 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Per OUSHAWN TCFA text msg.... goes with the following graphic
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/images/al932006.gif
msg follows:
WTNT01 KNGU 191200Z
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 191200Z SEP 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 26.7N 82.0W TO 27.6N 85.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SYNOPTIC
DATA AT 191200Z INDICATES THAT A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 80.0W OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF WEST PALM BEACH, FL. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS. NEARBY STATIONS HAVE REPORTED A 3MB DECREASE IN
PRESSURE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. AS THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION MOVES
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, EXPECT THE PRESSURE TO MAINTAIN
BEFORE BEGINING TO DEEPEN IN THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO.
2. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 201200Z.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 04:17 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Circulation is pretty evident about 50miles east of Cape Canaveral. Just after it moves inland...I expect a new center to form off Ft Myers and head slowly NW later Thursday. Conditions in the Gulf with the upperlow weakening gives this a 70% chance to develop. Watches could go into affect as early as Thurs evening.
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 04:23 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Scott,
I'm assuming you are not in agreement with JB on a Texas landfall then. Sounds like you are thinking more LA which would put us in a very nice position once again as we would be on the dry side and have gorgeous weather...I'm all for that.
Sorry, I guess thispost probably should have gone somewhere else but I'm not sure where so I posted it here.
Shawn
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 04:25 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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I was wondering about this for a while now: Can hurricanes form over land?? The imagry looks as though this "storm" is already over land so it does not have a possibility of gaining strength until it hits the waters of the Gulf am I correct in this?
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 04:38 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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No hurricanes cannot form over land. 93L is still very disorganized and not purely tropical. It'll move westward eventually and enter the gulf. It's worth watching there, but it still won't have the time nor the environment to get going too much.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 05:30 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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SSD has brought Ingrid back on the floater page. NRL has her too but I don't think they ever dropped her.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 05:41 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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In a few extremely rare instances, a tropical depression or storm has formed while mostly inland. In such extremely rare cases, the land is often very flat and in every instance I have looked in to, wet. Also, the atmospheric environment was very moist - not dry. With somewhat more frequency, tropical cyclones can start to form while a portion of them are slightly inland, but they finish the job offshore. I have never heard or read of a hurricane *just* forming while all, mostly, or even partially inland.
With regard to 93 -
The portion over land is mostly the upper level low, and not the surface low or the attendant surface trough.
I find it odd that NRL has the TCFA box up for just west of south Florida - not that it doesn't make any sense, whatsoever, just that it takes a leap of faith at this point, imho. The actual surface low, 93L, is still a good bit east of south Florida, and has been drifting north. There was an attempt late overnight to rebuild the primary LLC well to the east of this original location, but it never took. Now for the real mix-up, by all visual appearances, and also just by looking the the numerous buoy and ship data Floridians are treated to, before doing anything else it appears that the entirety of this discombobulated feature is developing a coastal low along the northward advancing warm front (this NEW low, if indeed it is forming, is centered roughly 29-30N, 79-80W). This too can transition into something a good bit more tropical before finally coming ashore. So to buy this TCFA up for where it is, you have to believe that the currently northward advancing surface low associated with 93 takes a flying jump across the state within just the next 24 hours or so, redevelops across the state within 24 hours and washes out what has been considered the center of 93L (still is, even with the TCFA issuance), or the ULL bores down to the surface there.
This brings up no less than FOUR distinct possibilities. When I start thinking in terms of four distinctly different possibilities for one Invest I know I am not looking at anything that has its act together.
So, there they are: 1) ULL bores down to the surface where TCFA is out. 2) Surface low that is meant to be 93L teleports across the state within 24 hours into where the TCFA is out 3) Surface low identified as 93L continues its march slowly north - or whatever direction, as it's been a little erratic, but mostly north - east of Florida and forms into a depression or 4) and what appears to actually be trying to happen, at least this morning at any rate, - a moisture-laden coastal low forms where the northern extent of 93's original surface low meets the warm front, as they continue generally northward in tandem.
I submit that until one of these four possibilities really steps up and stands out, this mess of an upper level low interacting with a surface low, surface trough, and warm front, will have a slow go at any substantive development, at best... and that is truly a no-nonsense, kind a "well, duh," statement.
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 05:45 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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i'm new to this post. am a weather enthusiast, particularly tropical cyclones. with that said, am i crazy or does it appear that there is some turning in the low levels, just starting, on the west coast of florida now? it appears in the latest vis sat loop. just in the last couple of frames.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 05:50 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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I am seeing that as well. There is definitely some turning (or what looks a lot like it) due west of the Naples area. I am not seeing evidence on the MIA long range loop, and the link to the TPA radar is down. Definitely worth watching though as this might be a warm core system developing on its own
| Marknole |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 05:53 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Last post, (Tropical Floater One-Visible) clearly shows convection and banding in the GOM S.W. of Naples. Are models still showing this heading westbound under the influence of Deep South ridge?
| DrewC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 06:17 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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The water vapor shows pretty clearly that the center of circulation has reformed off the west coast away from the convection. Now we will have to see if it can pull all the moisture from the east coast around, but it appears that it is trying to spin something up in that hot gulf water.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 06:20 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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local news station here (north carolina), last night showed 2 lows forming from 93l. one (non-tropical) heading slowly north or nearly stationary and the other (of tropical nature) moving west across GOM. could this be happening now?
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 06:21 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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The Tampa radar is back up. It does show some turning in the vicinity of Naples / Ft. Myers. Impact Weather mentioned this scenario around 10:15 CDT this morning.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 06:23 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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That is the ULL that is trying to get into the low levels and this is possibly what all the models were hinting at earlier on... The low is now very clear to see.. it is just east of Melbourne, FL. Conditions are favorable for further development, the 30 knot shear that was in that area is now 10 knots. Also watching Ingrid as that continues to redevelop as we speak.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 06:26 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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how interesting Scott that no one else has picked up on the radar signature of a circulation near Naples, but it is there...it is confirmed on the visible too. This is the most vigouous spin in the system should become the dominant low center in this complicated system, IMO.
EDS
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 06:26 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Quote:
The water vapor shows pretty clearly that the center of circulation has reformed off the west coast away from the convection. Now we will have to see if it can pull all the moisture from the east coast around, but it appears that it is trying to spin something up in that hot gulf water.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
I was under the impression according to TWC that there are two lows -- upper, which shows up nicely on water vapor off Tampa Bay, and the lower, which is the one off the east coast.
One of the mets please correct me if I'm wrong?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 06:35 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Correct the one off the coast of Naples is the upper low... the LLC is about ready to move onshore of Cape C in a few hours.
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 06:46 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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It looks like the ULL is the one to watch now that it is over the GOM. It will be interesting to see how the next 24hrs play out to see if it can work down to the surface.
Shawn
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 06:50 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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NORMALLY, it takes a few days for an upper level low to work its way down to the surface.. although this could be another "Andrea" scenario where it could be at least hybrid in one day.. something we all need to watch, right now, i'm getting pounded with heavy flooding rains and winds gusting from 35-40 mph.
| anomaly18 |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 07:10 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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WV imagery really shows the rotation in the E. GOM.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
Pretty interesting read about a westerly path off FL vs. a NW path.
http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 07:22 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Here's the thing...I believe the feature that will eventually become our TD is already in the GOM because I think it is the ULL that will work down to the surface and go from there. I know the LLC is still on the east coast of Florida but I don't see that being a player now. I realize I could be totally wrong on this but at least at this time my I'm keeping my attention on the ULL.
Shawn
| ChessieStorm |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 08:03 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Most of the Tampa mets have, with their models, been showing the one on the east coast crossing the state tonight and entering the GOM near the Tampa area (north or south) and in time spinning up into a tropical low which may intensify into a Tropical Storm or Hurricane and headiing toward Louisana, Mississippi and the extreme western tip of the Florida panhandle.
I am just repeating what I have been observing throughout the day here.
The conditions today where I am have been cloudy with a light north/northeast breeze and off and on again light showers.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 08:07 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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The situation is fluid...Masters Blog just posted (3:40 p.m.) that a llc is forming under the ULL which will actually impede development into a warm core tropical feature, and will impact intensity. The east coast center is on the peninsula now and is not looking to vigorous. My guess is it will lose out to the one over the water now.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 08:21 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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93L is not on land yet, it is still swirling off of Cape Canaveral and becoming better defined.. The low to the south of the ULL, did not catch that, so I guess you can throw all the models out, Post analysis will tell us if 93L was at least Subtropical. The radar looks much better and looks tropicalish, with the bands of rain and wind.. it's gusting around or even over 40 mph. here in Palm Coast, which is about 2 to 3 hour north of the center, probably why it should be Subtropical or just a strong Extratropical low.
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 08:23 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Well, nice to see someone is agreeing with what I said earlier...makes me feel better...lol.
This is what I meant by saying you can't put any stock into what the models were spitting out because they had no idea on where to initialize a center since it hadn't been very clear where the actual center would be. Looks like now the focus will be changing from the LLC coming on shore on the east side to the ULL that is already in the GOM. I wonder how long it will be before other sites and experts start mentioning this.
Shawn
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 08:35 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Quote:
The situation is fluid...Masters Blog just posted (3:40 p.m.) that a llc is forming under the ULL which will actually impede development into a warm core tropical feature, and will impact intensity. The east coast center is on the peninsula now and is not looking to vigorous. My guess is it will lose out to the one over the water now.
I read Master's blog... i am interested in his comments... although i saw no mention of surface data... Cleary in the Sats... you can see a weak low on the east coast moving in on the cape, of florida... its moving to the west.... surface obs will be intersting to see in a little bit... wonder if we may get two surface lows out of this mess?
NASA Shuttle pad has pressure down to 29.75 or about 1007mb with N winds at 4:30 cdt
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 10:23 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Interesting how the models are initializing on different lows..some with the ULL and some with the low coming across the state.....will be interesting to see which one is going to be it...looks like the ULL is heading southwest at a decent pace
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 10:53 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Looks can be deceiving. To me, it looks like the ULL is not moving fast at all, maybe southward.
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 11:06 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Do you all think this might get out of the way by Saturday? I'm in Pensacola and will be traveling to Orlando on Saturday. Last thing I want is to travel in an onslought of rain....
| tekkrite |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 11:40 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Odd how the main convection in what was Ingrid has spent the last few hours diving south at high speed--take a look. The models show her tracking WNW, but they've probably lost track of the system at this point. Still a lot of shear, I think, but boy has this system been persistent. Ingrid seems to be a night-bloomer. Decent outflow now to the north and east. Who knows?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 19 2007 11:49 PM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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cleary it looks to me that a low has come ashore there just to to the south of Cape, near merrit island... it may just be another vortice spinning in.....but i have looked at alot of obs, including personal stations and local MLB radar... If this is the low, then the question is will this be the one that makes it across the state or will a new low form from the ULL in the GOM?
Finding pressures around 1007-1012mb where it came ashore...on avgerage. I would go with a 1009mb. Some of the personal wx stations have reported some nice sustained winds earlier. There is a personal wx station that has seen a 8-9mb drop today since midnight... thats a good sign i would think that there is something happen in the lower atmosphere there... aka... low?
Buoy east of the Cape, 20nm... pressure is at 1008 with 15 mph winds... southerly winds
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 20 2007 12:02 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Good Observation Storm Hunter...I live on Merritt Island and the low passed right over. It from winds gusting in the 30s to flat calm and mostly clear. The barometer dipped to 29.68 and just went to 29.69 so it is starting to pass by. You can see the low on the radar quite well...
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=MLB&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 20 2007 12:08 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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What is now 93L will be a mute point very soon. It is already being forecasted to basically dissapate over land. The focus needs to be redirected to the ULL which is already starting to make progress on working the center down to the surface. Many people are talking about it on the other sites. The problem is that the models are still focused on the LLC which is 93L and that is why they are useless right now. Even the local mets here were pointing that out. Hopefully we will know more by tomorrow morning.
Shawn
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 20 2007 12:16 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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I'm not so sure..it is VERY difficult for and upper low to transform...and with conditions becoming more favorable north of the ULL, there is still a good possibility the depression (if it becomes one) forms farther north...i would like t o have pressure readings near the ULL..but 29.68 means the surface low near the cape is still holding on, and that is evident by radar...i think we still have 12-14 hours before anyone knows for sure, that is why it has been quiet
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 20 2007 12:40 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Until the system transits Florida, it is going to be hard to get any kind of useful information from the models. It still seems to have no real tropical look to it. However, once in the Gulf, it does seem like there is a good chance that something can form. Check back in 24 hours and there may be something that can be latched on too.
| Old Sailor |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 20 2007 01:05 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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93L will turn out to be nothing at most a heavey rain maker.. now down to weak on Dvorak scale.
| craigm |
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| Thu Sep 20 2007 01:07 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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This is fascinating to watch. The ULL is impressive but lacks any deep convection and is drawing lots of dry air in. You can see it shearing the healthy convection developing from 93L and pushing it NNW. The center of 93L looks to have moved inland just north of Cape Canaveral. The blob of convection almost points to the location of the LLC as you can see it exhausting heat. The ULL doesn't seem to have moved much in the last 7 hours.For 93L to do anything the ULL will need to move off to the west. If that happens then 93L has a chance to ramp up as it emerges off shore. I would say the panhandle to Louisiana is in for some nasty weather. I refuse to make any intensity 'guess'. Unfortunately for TX it looks like more rain as the ULL heads that way. The ULL translating to the surface possibly could happen, but without anticyclone aloft it won't intensify.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 20 2007 01:08 AM |
Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Well, might as well chime in with my "2 cents worth" ( may be worth more, but not by much LOL ). I do believe that the low level center which has come ashore near Merritt Island, is not by any means "transient". In tracking it however, one might think that in fact the system is moving somewhat NW'ward. In fact what I think may be happening is not unlike a vorticity max rotating around the eye of a mature system. My guess is that this low level center will not only maintain itself over land, perhaps even deepen slightly as it continues to rotate around the top, and then southwestward into the already stacked upper to mid level off the S.W. Fla. coast. Thus I would guess no additional significant development until at least tomm. night, but then finally some banding of low level feeder lines, and "then" the nice thick tropical feed might start to once and for all, drench most of the Southern half of the state. What I have less of a feel for though, is how much, if any will the upper feature move westward during the next 24 hours.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 20 2007 02:04 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Yeah...I guess I've gotto chime in here too...93L is not the vorticity that moved into the Cape this evening. That vorticity is just that, much like the numerous others that have spun up and spun down in the last few days around the east coast and the Bahamas, and it will fade away soon enough. What is 93L??? Actually, it is the overall system rather than a specific vorticity (That system being the area from the E GoMex to the West W Atlantic/Bahamas to N. Florida).
The vorticity seen moving into the Cape will die down as it moves inland. In general, it is rather small. Also, the conditionas are diurnal so winds will decrease over land over the evening hours and such a weak vorticity will too. Finally...the main circulation envelope at the lower levels is evolving off the SW FLorida Coast as a broad circulation under the ULL (As can be seen in the Shortwave...Link: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html) The vorticity that moved into the Cape today is pin wheeling around the broader lower level flow in the SE GoMex and at times, there have been subtlehints of other small vorticities...One was over Collier COunty late this afternoon for a brief time then it vanished..
If development occurs, I go with the reformation concept under the ULL off Marco Island. From there, the development would be subtropical...I also do not sense that anything developing is gonna move that fast either. The ULL hasn't moved much, nor has the relative disturbed weather. I believe the models are too fast with their evolution...
Mean time, I give subtropical development a 40% shot for now...it will not come from the Low moving through central Florida if it does...That vorticity will die in the diurnal phase land influence...it will also get absorbed into the overall surface pattern either way. That said...I give a 60% shot of no development for 93Lduring the next 24 hours.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 20 2007 02:11 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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The vortex actually is already inland, and has been so far an hour or two, based upon Melbourne radar. If it's going to dissipate, it needs to do so in a hurry - looks like it is approaching Orlando very soon, and that's 20% of the way into the Gulf, I estimate (maybe only 15%).
Having said that, the scenario of the ULL transitioning to a subtropical cyclone does seem more realistic. I give it 55% chance currently.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 20 2007 02:35 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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It does appear now that the vortice/low that came ashore over on the east coast will probaly weaken some overnight... there is alot of dry air at about 15k above it.. don't think it will make, since the mid-upp low to the sw is much stronger... also noticing that buoy 42003 is showing pressure drop all day today...
If this is the case, then i expect the ULL is winning out right now... tyring to build down to the surface... which would make this a Sub-tropical system at first, then based on its location and weak steering currents... this should transition over into tropical?This would put the western GOM back under my watch & wait list... I thought about moving my forecast earlier today, but this evening data is changing my thinking... seems that the surface low may form where i thought it would originally... in SE GOM.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003
Station 42003
Today, September 19, 2007, 26 minutes ago
September 19, 2007 8:49 pm CDT
Location: 25.74N 85.73W
Wind Direction: N (10°)
Wind Speed: 19 knots
Wind Gust: 25 knots
Significant Wave Height: 6 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.85 in (1010.9 mb)
Pressure Tendency: -0.00 in (-0.0 mb)
Air Temperature: 83°F (28.4°C)
Dew Point: 74°F (23.4°C)
Water Temperature: 86°F (30.1°C)
| cieldumort |
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| Thu Sep 20 2007 02:40 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Eh. This might be some matter of semantics in the end.. but for the sake of continuity, 93L officially is and has been the LLC off the east coast that tracked inland this evening. For reference, NRL currently centers 93L as:
93LINVEST.25kts-1007mb-285N-809W
and SSD is tracking 93L at:
20/ 15 UTC 28.4N 80.7W TOO WEAK 93L
and NHC is tracking 93L as:
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1030 PM EDT WED SEP 19 2007 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.
For all of the internet chatter about 93L being what is in all actually still just the center of the parent ULL with some convection and a mild surface reflection, the main player tonight has just moved inland and is crossing north Florida.
All sorts of data back up a "landfall" of a 1005 mb surface low near Merritt Island. This coc has, if anything, tightened into landfall. Additionally, winds are ramping up into the night from the sun going down, as there is no longer a great deal of mixing going on. Also, the heavier rains are really coming in now, especially on the north side of the surface low (93L).
The real questions here are - does this low remain the dominant player - if so, it may never have enough time over water to really develop a whole lot, if it continues WNW or NW, and roughly into the panhandle. Or, as others have suggested, does it get ingested into the subtle restructuring going on under the ULL. Or, does it weaken, and allow the faint surface reflection under the ULL to take hold.
Lots of questions, and no real answers, just yet.
| SirCane |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 20 2007 02:42 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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The whole thing looks like a mess and disorganized. I'll be surprised if anything more than a Subtropical Storm comes out of it. Looks more like one of those northeastern systems.
| Hurricane29 |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Sep 20 2007 02:51 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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View at the new low over florida...
Link to looping radar image
| flahurricane |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Thu Sep 20 2007 03:07 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Buoy 40 miles ENE of St. Augustine, FL reporting pressure of 29.82 in and wind gusts up to 30 knots. St. Augustine has been hit yesterday and today with heavy rain rain and gusty winds.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41012
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 20 2007 03:31 AM |
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Re: Watching 93L close to the Florida east Coast.
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Starting to look a the 00Z data thats still running and wondering if we may get two lows out of this mess... One over near Orlando, that tracks to near tampa and another in the EGOM, under that Upper low? (both at surface)
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danielw
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| Thu Sep 20 2007 03:46 AM |
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93L and 93U
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93L the Lower level LOW appears to be centered near Orlando. As KMCO, Orlando McCoy Airport, is reporting the lowest airport observation.
KMCO 73F 73F NW at 7kts 1008.3mb 2300ft OVC(overcast) ---- moderate rain
edit: Orlando Sanford International Airport KSFB 75F 71F NE at 9kts 1008.2mb 1500ft OVC ---- light rain
KSFB actually has the Lowest airport observation Pressure. I missed it one the first run.
Notice the difference in the two airport wind directions. The Surface Low appears to be between the two airports.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 20 2007 04:16 AM |
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Re: 93L and 93U
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lol... was actually about to post about that... between the two airports... actually almost right over downtown Orlando... i am seeing some reports of 20.70in on some obs there is town... winds out around the center are in the 20mph range.... Clearly have a low over Orlando!
KORL is at 29.80in. kinda between the two airports... (the executive one, KORL)
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danielw
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| Thu Sep 20 2007 04:47 AM |
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Re: 93L and 93U
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The 93U was something I was using to distinguish between the two systems.
93 is the Lower system and 93U the mid-upper level Low.
93U appear to be centered near 26.5N/ 84.5W using the RGB sat shot, and cloud banding patterns.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/rgb-l.jpg
| madmumbler |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 20 2007 10:47 AM |
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Re: 93L and 93U
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So what did I miss? I'm in western Charlotte County, and I wake up and the low that they're watching looks to be the one that was south of Tampa yesterday is now just offshore from us and is now designated 93. So they've basically dropped the lower and are now working with the upper which is the stronger? Or is it transitioning into a surface low?
I guess the hurricane hunter is going out today to take a look at it.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 20 2007 10:47 AM |
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Re: 93L and 93U
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Well it looks like a low pressure area is forming just to the west of Ft Meyers....visible on the radar and well north of the old ULL....we should know later this morning