| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Sep 24 2007 11:15 PM |
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Re: looks like a TD to me at the least
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Looks like the official word is as many of us were expecting. The 11PM came down to whether or not to begin advisories on TD12, or Karen. As the discussion states:
2004 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS WAS HELPFUL IN LOCATING THE CENTER OF
THE DEPRESSION AND THE QUIKSCAT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS
WERE AROUND 25 KT AT THAT TIME. SINCE THEN...DEEP CONVECTION
HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB
AND SAB SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER...THERE WAS SOME
SPREAD IN THE CENTER LOCATION OF THESE ESTIMATES...SO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT.
As for future track --- I'm only buying into the first 60 hours until we get some richer data in. What is more, as weathernet mentions, 12 is quite possibly going to be one of those large and strong enough to create their own environments, and thus to some degree, dictate their direction.
danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 25 2007 12:15 AM |
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TD 12
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HIGH SEAS FORECAST
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0430 UTC TUE SEP 25 2007
SUPERSEDED BY NEXT ISSUANCE IN 6 HOURS
SECURITE
ATLANTIC FROM 7N TO 31N W OF 35W INCLUDING CARIBBEAN SEA AND
GULF OF MEXICO
SYNOPSIS VALID 0000 UTC TUE SEP 25
24 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC WED SEP 26
48 HOUR FORECAST VALID 0000 UTC THU SEP 27
.WARNINGS.
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING...
.TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE NEAR 10.1N 36.2W 1006 MB AT 0300 UTC SEP 25 MOVING WNW OR 285 DEG AT 14 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT.
.12 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 10.6N 38.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT.
.24 HOUR FORECAST TROPICAL STORM NEAR 11.2N 41.4W. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT GUSTS 55 KT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 50 NM N SEMICIRCLE AND 30 NM S SEMICIRCLE.
SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER WITH SEAS TO 14 FT.
Less than 12 hours until Tropical Storm Karen arrives... according to this Forecast.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 25 2007 12:21 AM |
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GOM System
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Afternoon tasking by NHC (slightly unusual for them to task in the afternoon).
4. SUSPECT AREA (GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 73 (ADDED)
A. 25/1600Z
B. AFXXX 01KKA INVEST
C. 25/1345Z
D. 22.0N 94.0W
E. 25/1530Z TO 25/1930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT TWO --TEAL 74 (ADDED)
A. 26/0600Z
B. AFXXX 02KKA CYCLONE
C. 26/0245Z
D. 22.0N 95.0W
E. 26/0500Z TO 26/0900Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Notice line D in both of the above schedules.
Only one degree of westward movement in an 14 hour span. That looks more like a 'drift or stationary' motion to me.
]
| oil tracker |
| (Registered User) |
| Tue Sep 25 2007 12:45 AM |
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Re: GOM System
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Quote:
Only one degree of westward movement in an 14 hour span. That looks more like a 'drift or stationary' motion to me.
So Daniel if you still there awake, could you have and share with us your best guess for L94 either for the development and particularly for the tuture track? If it still drifting for 2 days, conditions would bend it to the north-east in your opinion?
Idem for S12(Karen) and the recurvature to north that most models and NHC plot.
And finally (for the same price) the chances for L97, where some models plot the path to East Coast or GOM
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Tue Sep 25 2007 01:35 AM |
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Re: GOM System
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It appears that a part of these forecasts for apparent drifting may also just be in response to the increasing likelihood that, however well-formed 94L appeared on conventional satellite yesterday, is actually far less well-developed at the surface, just yet. A scat pass at 2332Z exposed that the supposed main surface low probably pretty much opened up last night, and, in conjunction with recent convective trends and area obs, makes a case that "94L" may yet play out much differently than models are anticipating.
I suspect other possibilities now exposed may include:
1) the trof to the southeast of the original LLCs location may become dominant.
2) the trof to the southeast of the original LLCs location may merely act as a continued inhibitor to significant organization of that LLC (by way of robbing deep convection, preventing it from closing off again, etc.)
3) the mid-level vortice left in the wake of the deepest convection that was along the northeast quad of 94s LLC Monday appears to have also been attempting to take over.
So, in addition to weak and conflicting steering currents, it does look like 94L may even reform at an entirely different location, although this would still be in the Bay of Campeche/SW GOM, generally.
As such, I think it's entirely too early to call any future forecast tracks with any degree of confidence, because we may not even be locking on to the right initial location yet.