MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Sep 25 2007 10:35 PM |
Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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8:30 PM EDT, 27 September Update
Lorenzo has been upgraded to a hurricane, yet another TD to Hurricane storm in the Gulf this year, following Humberto. Hurricane Warnings are up for the section of Mexico that will likely see landfall.
2PM EDT, 27 September Update
Tropical Depression 13 becomes Tropical Storm Lorenzo.
11 AM EDT, 26 September Update
Karen is now near hurricane strength with 70mph winds, 98L is giving the keys a lot of rainfall now, and more will enter south Florida Later.
Karen's projected track and strength lend it more toward a continued out to sea scenario.
10 AM EDT, 26 September Update
Another Wave, 98L is now being tracked, and it's right off the Florida Keys, it is not very likely (since its mostly an upper level feature), but possible for this system to become a depression before it makes landfall in Southwest Florida, and cross the center of the state. It should then exit and move away from the US, however there may be a few things that could complicate that track, so it deserves to be watched a bit more. 98L will mostly be another rain event for Florida.
Tropical Storm Karen is a bit stronger this morning, and is moving West around 14MPH, it is still expected to turn northward and be sheared aggressively and is most likely no threat to any land areas.
TD#13 may become a tropical storm before it makes landfall in Mexico.
97L is likely not to develop at all.
Original Update
Tropical Depression Thirteen has formed in the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern part of the Gulf of Mexico. It is expected to move very slowly southwest and make landfall on the Mexican coastline as a Tropical Storm Friday night. Because of it's slow movement it may get stronger than forecast. One to watch for a while, at least.
Elsewhere Tropical Storm Karen continues its west northwest motion, but really has not gotten better organized today, the system still has a very weak core. Although very recently more convection has started to fire, so it may see some strengthening tonight Karen is a very large tropical storm size wise, but it still isn't very intense.
It is expected to move generally west northwest and then curve out to sea well before the Windward islands. It has about a 33% to become a hurricane before getting too far, but most likely it will remain a Tropical Storm or weaken below it.
97L in the eastern Caribbean still hasn't got more organized, and conditions are less favorable for development at present. Those in the islands will want to continue to watch it in case it does, but it appears it won't be too much a threat.
Another area in the Bahamas and approaching South Florida is interesting to watch, but won't have enough time to do much as it moves over South Florida and the keys except bring some rain. After that it may be worth watching, but chances are it too won't amount to much.
More to come later. Lots of activity in the tropics, but again, nothing pressing.
Southeast Composite Radar
{{radarlink|amx|Miami, FL}}
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL}}
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne, FL}}
Martinique Radar
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Lorenzo|13|13|2007|4|Lorenzo}}
{{StormLinks|Karen|12|12|2007|1|Karen}}
{{StormLinks|97L|97|14|2007|2|97L (East of Caribbean Wave)}}
{{StormLinks|98L|98|15|2007|3|98L ( Florida Wave)}}
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 05:06 AM |
Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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Am trying to figure out if things are getting busy or quiet.
Just when sub tropical systems seems dead, then suddenly back, then gone. Gulf roation, wait....convection, nope - looks like shear. Yep, strong shear but wait, a depression..... or more, or less. Waves dieing, then flaring back up, then gone, then back again. Karen getting sheared, all models point poleward and a lock to be a fish spinner, but then again...... ; and wait a minute, is'nt that the remnants of Dean retrograding eastward from Central America??? No doubt why I feel like I really need a cigarette, and I don't even smoke!
Well, scitzofrennic season ( musta spelled THAT one wrong LOL ) that it is, am attempting to maintain some focus on Karen. I still see a very large envelope system ahead of a significant easterly surge, barreling westward. I know what the models say, and I will not deny that a deepening mid Atlantic trough would have to deteriorate the overall low to mid level ridge in place, but until I see Karen up around 14N, will continue to believe she'll gain more longitude than currrent models forecast . Other brief observation is that the 0Z GFS run, at about 144 hour and out, is starting to show me a decent U.S. eastern seabord mid level ridge. Now, I am not going to "guestimate" the 500mb heights that far out, but certainly a farther west tracking Karen would certainly pose a different picture given that dynamic. If her forward motion were to slow down, I would be certainly less bullish on such a possibility. I do recall many a season where come final days of Sept., mid Atlantic tropical waves would appear "stuck in mud", and a late E. Atlantic storm would often get sucked straight toward the Azores. The 2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season, is it El Nino? La Nina? Perhaps just Muy Loco?! Can't wait to read up on the "hind-cast" analysis on THIS year.......
Until then, I'm just gonna sit back and keep one eye out for Felix - just to be sure HE'S gone, and not coming back!
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 05:58 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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lol... think they call it "2007, the season with no reason"... sure am curious why there have been more Cat. 5 these last few years, then in a long time? Anyway... 00Z pkg... some of the globals want to take that area of storms of SE Florida and up the east coast, before next trough swings by.... this looks more and more possible....one of thers models even build in a ridge to the north, which i would think old home town of Wilimington, NC. might be in for a weak system if its developes and moves up the SE coast.? Nothing has developed yet, but that could change. Stay tuned!
As i write, watchin Recon in the GOM, just off the MX coast... haven't seen anything significant out of the data on TD 13.. Vortex drop on first pass... 1008mb (no change)... said moderate convection 30nm from center.. highest flight level winds about 30mph... there flying around at 1,500ft
Also am noticing too that most long range globals lower the pressures in the western carb. and GOM.... with an atlantic ridge building at little farther north then we have seen this summer? Well see what happens...
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 07:11 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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TD13 looks on satellite like its already dissipated--i dont see any rotation at all now to the south of the "center"
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 07:26 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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13 has hardly dissipated... sort of just an optical illusion with regards to any apparent lack of turning.
Here's a snippet from the very latest recon. Pressures are dropping steadily and smartly tonight. Increasing surface and low level winds, along with more banding convection will likely soon begin to follow.
Quote:
Estimated Max Surface Winds 23.4KT (26.9mph 43.3km/h) *
Misc Remarks: SLP EXTRAP FROM 1500 FT. 2ND PRESSURE CENTER 306DEG/10NM GOOD RADAR CURVATURE E THRU NE QUAD
Date/Time of Recon Report: Wednesday, September 26, 2007 1:21:00 AM (Wed, 26 Sep 2007 06:21:00 UTC)
Position of the center: 21° 06' N 095° 01' W (21.1°N 95.0°W) [See Map]
Surface Winds Were: Not Estimated
Estimated Surface Winds Were Measured 0nm (0miles) From Center At Bearing 0°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Near Center Were 24KT (27.6mph 44.5km/h) From 199°
Maximum Flight Level Winds Were Measured 31nm (35.7 miles) From Center At Bearing 131°
Minimum pressure: 1007mb (29.74in) -- Extrapolated
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 07:33 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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wow it didnt take too long for me to be proven wrong--the satellite is out of the eclipse and there is a rather large convective blowup right over the center
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 08:01 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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Well Karen's on a nocturnal tear tonight. NRL has bumped her to 45 knots, and by the looks of things, this looks solid, if not understated, already. 13 doesn't yet have the winds to follow, but by my own best Dvorak guess, and with the latest from recon, I would say Lorenzo may be found there by 11AM. 97L is back on the map, pulling a T1.0 again per last SSD. Checking buoy data within 150 miles of the estimated "center" of 97L strongly supports the continued existence of a fairly well-developed lower level center. Pressure's falling there a tad. Might be around 1011 mb low at this time, but on an improving trend again. On again - off again. Nature of these features, to be sure... but with a gradual incline to more on than off, as it is.
Feature cooking around SoFlo I am starting to buy into a bit more. Then there's also yet another very respectable easterly wave, this right on the heels of Karen. Wouldn't surprise me in the least if Invest tags go up on either or both of those two sometime today. This is starting to look a lot like the Ghost of Christmas's past, if not yet the present.
As for landfall potentials, 13 is land-locked. It is going to have to impact someone, and most likely it's going to be Old Mexico, but Texas might not write it off just yet. If Karen isn't north of 14.5N by the time she is 50W we need to start questioning the model runs so far. One thing for certain regarding her future track.. if tonight's any indication.. Karen probably won't be a lightweight, shallow system out there. 97 is probably heading into the GOM and/or Florida Straits, development or no development. SoFlo disturbance probably gets ejected out to the NNE or NE... may be a potent Stream Runner (tm) if it gets its footing together. I'm very interested in seeing if the wave behind Karen should follow Karen, in her wake.
Lots and lots on the map. Makes ones eyes bug out a bit.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 11:24 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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Local weather update -- Here in SE Florida waves of torrential rain have been developing this morning and moving onshore. I wouldn't be suprised if I'm sitting under (future) invest 98L.
| punkyg |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 01:15 PM |
| Attachment |
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Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?
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I was looking at karen and spotted something interesting
i have it as an attachment.
it looks like karen is starting to form an eye.
so right now i'm thinking karen is stronger then she is said to be.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 01:39 PM |
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Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?
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We now have 98L.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_hom...s/microvap/dmsp
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 01:48 PM |
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Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?
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98L looks like more rain for Florida. Hope some of it gets into the Lake. I notice that 97 has shifted substantially; any thoughts?
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 02:33 PM |
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Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?
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Karen still has a weak core, that is not an eye, that is dry air in the center of the system. (See Here) Karen is less organized than it appears, but it is organizing more this morning.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 02:57 PM |
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Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?
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Karen did get up to around 70MPH estimates, still not an eye, but that's about where it would be. It looks like it will hit Hurricane Strength before the shear gets to it. It had a 1/3 shot to do so!
TD#13 still is a depression.
| OUSHAWN |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 02:58 PM |
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Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?
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I thought this was very interesting from the 11:00 TD13 Discussion...
Global models forecast a weak mid-level
ridge to build eastward slowly from northern Mexico over the Gulf
of Mexico. This should eventually result in a southwestward to
westward motion of the tropical cyclone toward the coast of Mexico.
Although the consensus of the track guidance models indicates the
abovementioned motion...there are significant differences amongst
the individual models. It should be noted... however...that all of
the dynamical models keep the system offshore through 36 hours.
You notice how is says "weak" ridge and it looks like there may be some doubt over at the NHC about what will really happen with TD13 if you read between the lines.
Shawn
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 03:31 PM |
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Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?
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Your attachment is likely showing the incipient eye, imho. While there was some dry air mixed in with the core early on, it appears to have been worked out, now. The placement of the soft spot in the visible image you provided matches up quite well with the eye feature that can be seen in the 1241UTC Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit Composite image. (Link) Furthermore, anaylsis from CIMSS shows the warmest pixel location, as well as the extrapolated center, to be right about there, as well. NHC notes these developments to some degree in the 11:00 AM.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 03:41 PM |
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Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?
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hmm... 98L.... was thinking this morning, something would spin off that area of storms last night...looks like the low level vortice is drifting to the WSW? There is a good amount of shear running to the NE over it..
Gulf Vis.
Centered on Key West
Not sure if this will last/survive or a new low will form under that convection off Florida, SE coast.
Thought this was intersting... the UCF heads NE with system, then takes a hard left into Jacksonville, I don't think that will happen...
Time Sensitive
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 04:24 PM |
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Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?
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thanks, great link.. appreciate it
this shows both areas well
im currently in the one covering mb with strong rain...
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir2.html
its a developing system and hard to say but to the left of it that wv has diving air and it's not done so.. as long as that holds up development would be slow
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 05:16 PM |
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Explanation Please
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If you look at this link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
You can see a stream of clouds from Karen moving SOUTH EAST to the trailing disturbance. Is Karen getting energy or giving energy?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 06:04 PM |
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Re: Explanation Please
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I don't think Karen is giving energy to the system... nor taking away... i would think those low line clouds, while they look like IV lines going to the disturbance... i woud think its more of a temperture inversion/dewpoint line... where on side is cooler/drier then the other... being pushed by the NE flow.. cause a set/line of Stratocumulus clouds to form... i would on think right now that the mid to upper levels would be something that would affect the disturbance....
watching recon on TD 13... didn't see that higher of flight level winds.. they made the first pass... should be tunring back to center soon... notice that the surface center is 5nm from flight level center... so still some shear...
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 06:27 PM |
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Re: Tropical storm karen soon to been hurricane?
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Miami radar looks to be showing a new center forming SE of Homestead barely offshore. There is eastward movement in the keys and westward movement in MIA. I cant confirm any west winds as of yet, but pressures at all the area buoys are starting to fall. Many stations in the area have reported 2mb pressure drops in the last hour
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 06:52 PM |
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98L, Karen, and TD13
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Looking at the radar and sat loops, it appears that the LLC is transitioning over to the east coast of Florida and the Key West LLC is falling apart. Bears watching as a jump of the LLC could increase the odds of something forming.
At the risk of saying something obvious, it seems there was a big ole switch flipped somewhere and now everything that wouldn't develop a month ago, is finding some sort of traction. (I'm not saying the season wasn't active before, but systems are developing in spite of relatively hostile conditions when they weren't before).
Karen is probably a hurricane now, still tracking WNW, and nothing is out there to indicate the NHC has the storm wrong. it's still worth keeping a slight eye on in case the weakness doesn't develop as well as predicted and a more westerly motion is generated.
TD13 seems to have weakened slightly, but is now starting to regroup and should make it to tropical storm force. No reason to think the storm won't head WSW in the long run.
The waves in the far east, can look as good as they want, but until they get some longitude, on them, I'm not worried about any development.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 07:33 PM |
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Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13
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See what your talking about on the MIA radar... looks like that was the mid-upper low i saw on sats this morning... its moving to the NE. I agree that the Key west low may be weakening... there is strong shear about to come over the top of that surface low... thats drifiting to the wsw... the mid-upper low looks like its coming down to the surface just south of Miami is moving with that convection, to the NE. Checking the surface obs. down there.
| flnelson |
| (Registered User) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 08:56 PM |
Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13
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The Miami radar is now showing a distinct swirl off the south-east tip of the penninsula and what appears to be some convection bands. It definitly looks like its trying to get more organized.
Its definitly going to be a soggy night here in Palm Beach county as the large mass of convection comes ashore,
| Fletch |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 09:26 PM |
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Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13
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Quote:
The Miami radar is now showing a distinct swirl off the south-east tip of the penninsula and what appears to be some convection bands. It definitly looks like its trying to get more organized.
Its definitly going to be a soggy night here in Palm Beach county as the large mass of convection comes ashore,
Actually I think most of the rain we've been getting in South Florida is over for the day. The system is pulling out to the NE and the dry air can be seen moving in on the water vapor loop.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 09:51 PM |
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Re: 98L, Karen, and TD13
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The storm is certainly gone. We had been getting torential rain for two days here in Cutler Ridge, Miami and now it has stopped and cleared up. The sun is now shining. I definatly have missed it the past few days.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Sep 26 2007 11:04 PM |
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Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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Looks like Karen's depth has possibly allowed her to get tugged farther to the north than both forecast and recently analyzed. On conventional satellite, especially using the FT & RB enhancements, it is possible to discern what may be that incipient eye that keeps trying to form throughout the day today, up around a full lat north of where she should be based on the most recent extrap and official NHC forecast. This conclusion is backed up further by the JSL, which shows banding features cyclonically curved around this, what is quite possibly the actual COC.
With recon closing in, we should have this question answered at least somewhat definitively shortly here tonight.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 27 2007 12:00 AM |
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Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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Regarding Karen--Not sure if anyone has noticed this but since the 1800Z GFDL yesterday, models have been trending back towards the west with a disturbing hook to the left with the GFDL and the AVN alias (GFS) out about 96-120 hrs. Must be picking up less weakness in the ridge. Next few runs will be interesting.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 27 2007 12:35 AM |
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Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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Quote:
Regarding Karen--Not sure if anyone has noticed this but since the 1800Z GFDL yesterday, models have been trending back towards the west with a disturbing hook to the left with the GFDL and the AVN alias (GFS) out about 96-120 hrs. Must be picking up less weakness in the ridge. Next few runs will be interesting.
I don't think anyone has said it publicly, but it appears more and more that the low pressure trough will bypass before Karen can get caught and turned north and out to sea... and we know what is follows a low pressure,..... High pressure/ridge to build in over the north atlantic... which, yep would mean a westward track until the next trough... WHICH is way too far out to forecast, timing, location... Karen will need watching... and will see what the upper level winds do to her in a few days, and if and how much she may get beaten...
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 27 2007 12:45 AM |
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Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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Karen, if she survives is still almost 10 days away from either the East Coast or Bermuda; a lot can and will happen by then. We'll have plenty of time to watch.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 27 2007 12:54 AM |
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Karen Vortex
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URNT12 KWBC 270017
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/0000Z
B. 12 DEG 56 MIN N
44 DEG 32 MIN W
C. 700 MB 3088 M
D. 62 KT
E. 062 DEG 25 NM
F. 151 DEG 68 KT
G. 053 DEG 31 NM
H. 998 MB
I. 11 C/3059 M
J. 15 C/3058 M
K. 13 C/NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/7
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA3 0112A KAREN OB 08 AL122007
MAX FL WIND 68 KT NE QUAD 2350Z
MAX SFMR WIND 62 KT NE QUAD 2351Z
SLP FROM DROPSONDE
Temperature / dewpoint at 997mb: 27C / 26.2C
Temperature / dewpoint at 987mb: 26.2C / 25.8C
Temperature / dewpoint at 928mb: 22.6C / 22.6C
Temperature / dewpoint at 858mb: 22C / 17.3C
Temperature / dewpoint at 696mb: 15.8C / 10C
Karen appears to be doing quite well in the EYE department.
22C air temperature at nearly 5000 ft above sea level. That's probably a Bad sign... hurricane in the making.
The above temperatures were from an EYE dropsonde. Observation 10.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Thu Sep 27 2007 03:17 AM |
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Re: Karen Vortex
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wow, FORECASTER BLAKE in the Tropical Discussion was excellent!!! New forecaster on duty... great explanation... i saw the NOAA data... and was too interested in some of the obs.. now i have some what of a clear picture! Blake's discussion is almost that of Stacy Stewart who is over sea's right now, called to active duty in Iraq. Think we weather folks will enjoy blakes discussion more often!
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 27 2007 05:10 AM |
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Discussion Excerpts
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EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
307 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2007 (edited~danielw)
VALID 12Z SAT SEP 29 2007 - 12Z WED OCT 03 2007
...TROPICS...
ONE DISORGANIZED AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER VCNTY OF SRN FL WILL
GET CAUGHT UP AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN A COUPLE DAYS. HURCN KAREN
SHOULD CONTINUE ON A GENERAL NW TRACK THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE
ARE ALSO WATCHING FOR THE EVOLUTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE OR
DEPRESSION NEAR THE BAHAMAS/PUERTO RICO THAT MAY DRIFT SLOWLY
WESTWARD DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE. PLEASE CONSULT TPC BULLETINS FOR
MORE INFO ON THESE SYS.
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 27 2007 05:35 AM |
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Re: Discussion Excerpts
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Here Here on the Blake descriptions! Some of the best out of NHC in the last discussions for both Karen & 13L, imho.
Does look like we might, sort of, have Karen getting the official bump now, regardless, and won't have to wait for the reanalysis to include the upgrade. To quote Blake for the benefit of others coming into this thread without a reference point, here is a partial quote from the 11PM Karen discussion:
Quote:
1100 PM EDT WED SEP 26 2007
A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE HAS BEEN CONDUCTING A RESEARCH MISSION
THIS EVENING AND HAS FOUND AN UNUSUAL WIND STRUCTURE WITH KAREN.
SFMR DATA SHOW THAT THE STORM HAS A VERY LARGE WIND FIELD...WITH
ONE PEAK IN SURFACE WINDS ABOUT 105 NM AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND
ANOTHER ONE AT A MORE TYPICAL DISTANCE. IN ADDITION...DROPSONDE AND
SFMR DATA SUGGEST THAT THE FLIGHT LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER...LIKELY DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND SHEAR. THE MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WIND REPORTED WAS 69 KT...WITH
A PEAK SURFACE VALUE OF 62 KT REPORTED TWICE...NOT QUITE HURRICANE
STRENGTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE FROM
EARLIER TODAY...KAREN WAS ALMOST CERTAINLY A HURRICANE THEN...AND
THIS LIKELIHOOD MAY BE REFLECTED IN THE FINAL BEST TRACK FOR THE
SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY.
Karen-
NRL: "12LKAREN.65kts-995mb-128N-446W"
CIMSS: "Hurricane 12L"
In the end, however, as Blake states, Karen may not be able to attain hurricane strength again in the face of ongoing and upcoming shear.
| Storm Surfer |
| (Registered User) |
| Thu Sep 27 2007 04:44 PM |
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Re: Discussion Excerpts
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Here at Palm Beach County Fire Station 68 in Lake Park ,I saw the rocket launch this morning with beautiful clear skies then watched on the visible Florida loop a couple hours later a low spinning south through the PBC . Pretty neat to see it on the computer and witness it with your own eyes. Dark low clouds with some very light rain . and now its Beautiful againl!!
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 27 2007 04:51 PM |
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Re: Discussion Excerpts
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Am I reading this shear analysis correctly? Karen is moving into a 40-50 knot shear zone all the way to Puerto Rico (if she heads that way). This is't the 'Season with no reason' its the season of bad a#% shear!
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8wxc.GIF
btw- the 12Z run of the UKMET is showing strong ridge again, probably reflecting how weak Karen will be by then.
| allan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 27 2007 06:13 PM |
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Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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TD13 has rapidly intesified to Tropical Storm Lorenzo with 60 mph. winds. Amazing, could beat our humble Humberto in the fastest growing storm in history! Karen is blowing more convection near the center but as shear continues, that should be blown away from it later. "As the models turn" The GFDL is back to a westward movement, the UKMET well... is probably out to lunch this afteroon as it shows Karen diving south to the Windwards. The GFS is possible, yet scary. I have yet to see the HWRMF, interesting models this afternoon, deffinatly more spread out then before, If it strengthens, it heads north then west.. If it keeps up the weakening, it heads west-northwest then west as the high builds in. Lorenzo is one fasinating storm and may reach Hurricane strength before making landfall tonight.
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 27 2007 06:36 PM |
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Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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13L is now Tropical Storm Lorenzo. Winds are at 60 MPH. NHC will issue a special advisory shortly.
(NHC Lorenzo links)
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Thu Sep 27 2007 07:35 PM |
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Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132007
A. 27/18:19:00Z
B. 20 deg 29 min N
095 deg 43 min W
C. 850 mb 1449 m
D. 69 kt
E. 161 deg 11 nm
F. 220 deg 052 kt
G. 141 deg 020 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. NA C/ 1519 m
J. 23 C/ 1521 m
K. 14 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345/8
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF306 0513A CYCLONE OB 07
MAX FL WIND 64 KT SW QUAD 17:31:30 Z
I wonder if they'll upgrade it to a hurricane. It's trying really hard. Be a bit of a shocker to see it upgraded, particularly with the sheared look. Still Drifting south West and nothing to really push it a long faster.
Karen is trending to the left of Tropical Forecast point, again, not a surprise with the current state of the system. Still looks like a tropical Storm, vigorous LLC, and it may slip south of the worst shear.
Right now the models are starting to trend west with Karen, but as has been mentioned here many a time, wait for consistent model runs before taking any serious stock in them.
Right now the main concern is what Lorenzo will do to the Mexican coast, it may be a bit of a shocker to people if they hadn't been preparing for potentially rapidly developing storm (pressure appears to be dropping fairly rapidly, New Recon Ob found a pressure at 1000mb, a 2mb drop per hour the last few hours).
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 27 2007 08:08 PM |
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Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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Interestingly, the 12Z Euro brings Karen near Miami as a powerful hurricane! That is 10 days out though, so take it with a grain of salt. But its continuing a trend, and currently she is rebuilding convection, perhaps enough to survive the shear.
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 27 2007 08:13 PM |
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Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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Lorenzo looks like another Humberto, with rapid development right before landfall.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 27 2007 08:37 PM |
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Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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The models are doing a lot of dancing with Karen. I think we need to see what happens over the next 3-4 days with shear.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Thu Sep 27 2007 09:52 PM |
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next week
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story next week ought to be whatever is in front of karen and karen itself. karen looks like it's going to hold out against the upper trough pretty well, and early next week it should be through it. assuming survival, nothing but a big ol' ridge in the western atlantic all next week. the ones that almost die and then come back can sometimes be the real bad ones. ingrid got ripped up by shear a while back, and it could happen just the same way again. hope so at least. a lot of the guidance is going to start coming further west with karen over the next couple of days.. should get a big hairier. how deep a system is south of bermuda in 3-4 days should determine whether it's hung and drifting in the upper trough axis or into the wheelhouse.
these latin-sounding storms in the gulf are playing games just lately. whereas humberto took days to organize but went ballistic just off the texas coast, lorenzo looks like it's going to make the run to hurricane strength before landfall as well. like it's predecessor it's a tiny storm and not likely to have a very wide swath of influence.
a lot of the globals are showing a coastal storm stuck under the ridge ahead of karen as the current upper trough swings through quickly and leaves a fairly large inverted trough in its wake. that might be a focal point or it could just as easily be a big messy nothing like the current one strung from florida to new england.
globals still trying to pop one more out near the cape verdes before last call. this late in september they usually stop rather abruptly.
HF 2152z27september
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Thu Sep 27 2007 10:01 PM |
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Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Tropical Depression 13 Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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I know it's a forum rule to not repost entire advisories or discussions but, I couldn't find a direct link to this discussion on the main page Unless you go through the NHC link. I left out the Lorenzo part.
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122007
500 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007
PERSISTENTLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...DISPLACING THE DEEP CONVECTION FROM THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. ALTHOUGH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE DECREASED TO 45 KT...SOME RECENT DEEP
CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR THE CENTER SUGGEST A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
INTENSITY. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 50 KT.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD THROUGH DAY
5...INDICATING GRADUAL WEAKENING. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...SHIPS...AND THE LGEM ARE NOW SUGGESTING THAT THE SHEAR
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AROUND THE 96 TO 120 HR PERIOD WHEN THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE REACHES THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. CONSEQUENTLY...
SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD IS
POSSIBLE...ALBEIT NOT INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS
TIME.
KAREN IS MOVING AT 305/11...WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING
DURING THE NEXT 2 DAYS OR SO AS KAREN PROPAGATES WITHIN THE
DEEP-LAYERED FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THROUGH THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FORECAST...THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE AGREEING IN BUILDING THE MID- LEVEL RIDGE MORE
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE CAUSING KAREN TO TURN MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AND IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/2100Z 14.3N 48.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 15.5N 49.8W 45 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 16.8N 51.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 29/0600Z 17.8N 52.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 29/1800Z 18.7N 54.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 20.5N 55.5W 40 KT
96HR VT 01/1800Z 22.5N 56.5W 40 KT
120HR VT 02/1800Z 24.0N 58.5W 40 KT
| Rabbit |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Sep 27 2007 11:54 PM |
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Lorenzo becomes a hurricane
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8pm--Lorenzo upgraded to hurricane with 75mph winds and 993mb pressure--fourth (possibly fifth) of the season
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Sep 28 2007 02:59 AM |
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Re: Lorenzo becomes a hurricane
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darn... gone all day... away from Panama City... and come back and Lorenzo makes a run up to Hurricane... just off shore of Old Mx.... Nice! Just looked over the recon data from today... wow.. so compact of system!!! Starting to look at the NOAA data on Karen... just glanced at a few models... looks like if karen survives another 2-3 days, things might get interesting.... as the ridge builds back to the north of it. Looks like its going to be, how much of shear can the system take for about 48-72 hrs?
11pm Adv. on karen..
HOWEVER...THIS TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TURN THE STORM OUT TO SEA AND ALL MODELS
BUILD RIDGING TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM...FORCING A WEST-NORTHWEST
TURN AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED WESTWARD WITH THIS PACKAGE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE
GFS/ECMWF MODELS AND IS ON THE LEFT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
IF THE STORM WEAKENS MORE THAN EXPECTED...THIS FORECAST MAY HAVE TO
BE ADJUSTED FARTHER TO THE WEST..ESPECIALLY IN THE SHORT-TERM.
Also read Lorenzo Discus.... I am really interested to what recon finds in a bit when they get there.. actually how far down the drop of pressure went. Would like to know too if it will make cat 2 or more at landfall? this might set another 2007 record if it keeps agoing!
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Sep 28 2007 09:09 AM |
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Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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It looks to me that it may be nearing time to toss out the model runs on Karen of the past several days. As of this morning, Karen has all but stalled, or has even been tracking a little bit to the southwest, if I buy the Extrap and my own eyes. Best I can tell, the LLC hasn't gone much of anywhere during the eclipse, and now, at the precipice of 50W, Karen is not yet even north of 14.5N, which was the approximate leftmost outlier for her position by this longitude, from the model suite average of the past several days.
This is the official word from NHC at 5AM
0900 UTC FRI SEP 28 2007
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 49.8W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT
I just don't see it. I might be able to believe that is her motion of the last one hour, or so, but certainly not the average of the past five or six hours. In fact, this take is entirely substantiated by comparing the 11PM advisory position with today's 5AM.
11PM last night:
INITIAL 28/0300Z 14.8N 49.5W 50 KT
So, Karen went from 14.8 N 49.5W to 14.1N 49.8W Averaged out, that reads a lot more like SW, or even really SSW, over 6 hours. Karen is a highly-sheared tropical cyclone with intermittent bursts of deep convection within and about her center. However, this convection does not appear to have been consistent enough to allow her to follow the marching orders of all of these models.
Certainly this may be a relocation on the assumption that we didn't know where her center really was six hours ago, but looking at the night vision loops and microwave passes, that initial fix at 14.8N 49.5W looks to have been pretty darn good. I think Karen just went .. left.
With shear forecast to slacken some in the 2-4 day out time frame, and Karen likely to often remain rather shallow until then, and already having strayed considerably left of consensus, a consensus among models that now nearly unanimously send her westbound on Days 4 and/or 5, as it is.. I do think it is very close to, if not already, time to rethink these model forecasts.
This last comment from Mainelli from the 5AM Discussion really sums Karen up, methinks:
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE ARE LARGE UNCERTAINTIES IN BOTH THE
TRACK AND INTENSITY AT THE LONGER FORECAST PERIODS.
| flanewscameraman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Fri Sep 28 2007 10:06 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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Does it appear that Karen will survive the shearing for the next few days? I am attaching a track of Andrew from 1992, just for your input
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Sep 28 2007 12:11 PM |
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Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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I find it somewhat amazing, that no one knows what, when and where Karen will do. From the look of the models it may even go under the CONUS late next week. Does anyone know what the wind shear around the Bahama's is going to be?
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Sep 28 2007 01:30 PM |
Re: Wave off Florida Should Bring Rain... Hurricane Lorenzo Forms in Southwest Gulf of Mexico
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Well, here we go again......, Karen moving north, wait west, wait....southwest? The shear is up, now down, but coming back?! What an appropriate storm for the year we are having! If Karen were a smaller system in an "average year", i'd say we would soon be witnessing the basic de-coupling of the low level from mid levels and "game over".
On first visible sat., it appeared to me that now Karen is drifting or moving northeast??!! Upon closer review, it would seem that NHC has been tracking the center, which appears NOW to be a tighter vorticity which is obviously weakening against the shear; now acting as a more decoupled mid level, which is rotating around the broader low level surface low. In fact, perhaps not rotating around it so much, but perhaps soon to be entirely de-coupled from it. Again, in normal years, this would be the end of the system, but who knows.....
Models remain consistant with tending to re-develop and strengthen Karen, and in fact seem fairly in line with a late track cycle even more westward ( with odd exception to 0600Z run of GFDL and the European's 0Z run which from 7-10 days, just starts acting "wiggy" ).
I do not see how, given the overall appearance of Karen, how she maintains Tropical Storm designation. That said, I think we will see a large low level swirl moving around 180 degrees which will either do one of two things - eventually spin itself out and go away, or possibly redevelop under lighter shear in 2-3 days, only then to start tracking towards the Bahamas and possibly Florida. After many years of tracking and chasing hurricane's, i'd go with the "spin itself out option". This year however? Models seem more inconsistant than past years, and i'm at a point where practically nothing would surprise me.