November 1st 9pm EDT Update
As it accelerates to the north and east, Noel has intensified into a minimal hurricane this evening. Current maximum sustained winds are 75mph. No tropical cyclone advisories are up for the US coastline as it is expected to transition into an extratropical storm in the next day or so, but high winds are possible for Cape Cod and the Northeast US as Noel passes offshore Friday into Saturday.

November 1, 2007, 6AM EDT Update
Noel has held at 60mph overnight, pressure has dropped slightly, but Tropical Storm Warnings are now up as a precaution from Ocean Reef to Deerfield Beach, and a Tropical Storm watch north of there to Jupiter Inlet.

Although the storm is expected to pass to the east, the windfield from the storm has expanded enough westward to potentially cause tropical storm force winds along the area in the warning zone.



31/11PM EDT Update

No Tropical Storm Warnings for Florida, Tropical Watches remain from Jupiter inlet southward, however.

Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the Central and Northwestern Bahamas, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northwestern bahamas.

Noel is still expected to move slowly northward, with most of the convection to the north and east of the center. The convection to the north and east of the center has increased quite dramatically tonight.



This site will be continuing to watch this stubborn system.

31/10PM EDT Update

Not much has changed with Noel, other than plenty of people scratching their heads trying to figure out what's really going on with it right now. The good news is that it doesn't look like it's making any more westward movement. The high to the northwest has died down, and so have a lot of the gradient driven winds.



It has some extremely high (cold) cloud tops in the convection east of the center, varied wind, fairly strong, and a highly highly complex environment around it. One of the oddest things I have seen.

31/7PM EDT Update
From the NHC 21Z Bulletin: A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH
OF OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET FLORIDA.

The NHC Discussion noted (correctly) that the center of Noel has been stationary for the last few hours. The Discussion also noted that RECON had detected a secondary center trying to form to the northeast of the primary center. At 23Z the secondary center was located near 23N 78.4W, however for the last couple of hours this secondary center, under the circulation influence of the primary center, has been moving to the west - perhaps even a little south of due west.

Convection is again refiring this evening and some additional strengthening is possible tonight and tomorrow. The models will eventually be correct on the future movement - but Noel is an excellent example of why one should not put all of their marbles in the 'model bag'.

Folks in south Florida need to closely monitor Noel's movement and status.
ED

1PM EDT Update
Latest Recon fix is 22.6N 78.8W, a bit WSW of the 11AM Position of 22.7N 78.5W.

From a Special Weather Statement out of Miami:

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Due to the complicated nature of the situation. All persons in southeast Florida are urged to stay abreast of the latest advisories and statements from the National Hurricane Center and the Miami Weather Forecast office. And heed the advice of local officials if tropical storm warnings are issued late this afternoon or evening.

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What are conditions from Noel and the pressure gradient like in your area? Let us know here

11:50 AM Update

Noel isn't cooperating, the low level circulation appears to be moving away and out of the main circulation.



Too early to tell exactly what this means, more recon data will help, but it should keep everyone alert as to what this system does today.

11AM Update
Noel has strengthened a bit this morning since it has moved off Cuba, and it appears to continue to be strengthening. It is currently at 50MPH winds, with 994 mb pressure, moving north northwest at 8 mph.

There are still no Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings, but there are Gale Warnings out for South Florida. The wind field of Noel may be expanding, and if it does enough, Tropical Storm Warnings may be issued for south Florida.

The forecast track still takes the center over 110 miles east of Florida, over the Bahamas, which do have Tropical Storm Warnings.

Regardless of Gale or Tropical Storm Warnings, it will be a nasty day along the coast, with gradient winds and some beach erosion.



Original Update
Tropical Storm Noel has moved off of Cuba now (Recon last vortex center position was 22.7°N 78.2°W), and is entering the Atlantic, it has a brief opportunity to strengthen today before shear kicks up to the point where the system may weaken again, and it has the potential to strengthen again after it becomes an Extratropical System in the Atlantic. Which means a fair amount of the East Coast (not just Florida) will have to deal with rough surf and gradient winds.



Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the Central and Northwestern Bahamas, there are no Tropical Storm watches or warnings for Florida.

Gradient winds today will, especially in South Florida, likely be brisk, with occasional higher gusts up to gale force. Today is mixed, some of the rain today is not directly from the storm, but some of the lower level clouds may cause some rain and may move west and southwest through the state today.

. Noel's clouds may expand, but the "Wall" keeping it from moving much further west, is also help keeping the convection away from Florida. However, It is possible for some of the western edge of the heavier convection to reach South Florida if Noel strengthens more than expected, so it's still important to watch if you are in South Florida.

It is enough to keep at least those in South Florida watching it closely. It may be a bit rough for Halloween down there, but should be slightly better in Central Florida unless you are right along the coast. Noel will likely pass 110-150 miles east of South Florida, yet this won't mean much because of the indirect winds and beach erosion likely to be caused.



The storm's motion is currently North Northwest, and it's expected to curve more north to northeast during the day. The worst indirectly caused from Noel will be felt in Florida today until late Thursday.

What are conditions from Noel like in your area? Let us know here

For discussion of other, less likely, scenarios check out this thread here.

Radar Loops
Flhurricane Long Term Noel Radar Approach Recording
Large Florida Composite Radar Loop
Large Miami Radar Loop
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne FL}}
{{radarlink|jax|Jacksonville FL}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami, FL}}
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL}}
Cuban Radar
RAMSDIS closeup rapid visible satellite animation of Noel
{{CHC}}
{{StormCarib}}
{{StormLinks|Noel|16|16|2007|1|Tropical Storm Noel}}

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Well, I know the advisory says NNW. Am still not seeing it, and yet to see a clear vis. or RGB sat. that shows clear motion. Cuban radar seems down, and the overall envelope system still appears to be moving WNW. Hard to tell if we are seeing reorganization under the new bursting, or if the true center is dragging WNW, and the convection having moved closer to the center. Net motion for 24 hour period ending at 8:00am this morning has been 1.3 degrees north and 1.4 degrees west.

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This may help:




Here is a good RAMSDIS link to watch for movement with during the day.

Granted this may be more of a reformation of the center since overnight, like what was mentioned in this mornings discussion, but I'll be watching that satellite loop closely over the next few hours to be sure.

The temperature (colder inner core than outer core) difference may be indicating an extratropical transition already starting to occur.

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WOW!...For a minimal TS the circulation coverages of this system are enormous!...Look at the current visible from the NOAA site on the West ATL view. The low level circulation around what is clearly the focus of Noel is huge...I don't think I've ever seen any thing like this.

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SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM NOAA BUOY 41047...QUIKSCAT DATA...AND
AIRCRAFT REPORTS INDICATE THAT NOEL HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER
IN SIZE DURING THE NIGHT. THIS HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT REVISION TO
BOTH THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII.

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