Administrator

(Admin)

Tue Jan 01 2008 03:29 PM

2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st

And this year is yet another year, after two relatively inactive years (for US landfalls) anyway, will we have another? Hopefully so.

2007 was a very active year despite the lack of landfalls, a December Storm, two landfalling Category 5 systems in Mexico and Central America, and a general west west west motion. Hurricane Humberto, a last minute hurricane, made landfall southwest of Port Arthur, Texas, and was the only landfalling US hurricane of the season.

There was a post season storm, Olga, that crossed Puerto Rico, and fell apart when eventually the remnants entered the gulf and over Florida causing a few Tornadoes.

Dean and Felix were the monsters of the season, never before have two Category 5 systems made landfall as Category five in a single year. Dean pushed west, causing trouble for Jamaica, and then eventually making landfall in the southeastern Yucatan, and again near Tampico. Felix was a westward bound storm that managed to strike Honduras and Nicaragua.

Other systems caused havoc in Haiti with landslides, and more. 2007 was by no means a quiet season, but for the US it seemed like it.

May 2008 remain another inactive year for the states, and hopefully the rest of the basin as well. Although we may have another "slow" year this year (however there are some indications that it may be much more active), it only takes one system to buck the trend. Hurricane Andrew happened in an otherwise very slow season back in 1992.

The official start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is on June 1st, the Eastern Pacific starts on May 15th. We'll be watching as usual and we hope this year remains quiet. The focus here will remain reporting on as much solid information as possible, keeping the "Wishcasting" and speculation to a minimum, and attempts to focus more facts.

Thanks to all who donated in 2007, we nearly broke even on costs this year.

Have a great and wonderful new year!

Administrator

(Moderator)

Thu Jan 10 2008 01:24 AM

Re: 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st

Just a heads up to the Caribbean Discussion from this afternoon. The GFS is forecasting a cyclone to develop in the area of 25N 55W over the next few days.

Now it gets really weird. This is forecast to be a hybrid-hybrid. Warm Core system in the low levels and Cold Core system in the upper levels. ( Sounds like a Hail producer to me ).

Here's the excerpt from the Discussion and a link to follow the next few day's Discussions.

TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
212 PM EST WED JAN 09 2008

...OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...AT MID LEVELS...A LOW NEAR 25N 55W
SUPPORTS A TROUGH WITH BASE EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN/NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY
UNCHANGED THROUGH 36-48 HRS. BUT BY 60-84 HRS IT WILL START TO
WEAKEN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST FLATTENS. AT LOW
LEVELS THIS TROUGH INDUCED AN INVERTED TROUGH ALONG 55N...WITH A
CLOSED LOW TO FORM ALONG THIS AXIS. THE GFS ONCE AGAIN FAVORS A
WARM CORE LOW LEVEL CYCLONE...WHILE AT UPPER LEVELS IT RETAINS ITS
COLD CORE CHARACTERISTICS. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH MESO VORTICES ARE FORMING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND
SPREADING ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO THE CARIBBEAN. VISIBLE IMAGERY
SHOWS ONE OF THESE VORTICES NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...WHILE ANOTHER MEANDERS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. MODEL
ANALYSIS SHOW THESE PERTURBATIONS AT 700 HPA...ARE THEY ARE TO
EMBED ALONG A NARROW TROUGH THAT MEANDERS OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN ALONG 13N-14N BY MID CYCLE. EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...HOWEVER...SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15-25M. BUT...AFTER 30-36 HRS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION
MOST LIKELY WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE OPEN WATERS OF THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES...UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
OVER THE SOUTHERN FRENCH AND WINDWARD ISLES BETWEEN 36-84
HRS...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10-15MM.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/fxca20.html

(Moderator)

Thu Jan 10 2008 05:29 AM

Re: 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st

Been watching the pair of ULLs that have been connecting to the surface here for a few days, myself.

Recent scat passes reveal a well-defined inverted V surface wind, with cloud motion suggesting some areas of mesovortices perhaps even down to around 925mb, or so.

Looks a good bit like pre-pre-Olga (pre-95L) tonight. I wouldn't be surprised to see 90L up there within the next day or two. A warm core at the lower levels with a remaining cold core above is fairly standard fare with many subtropical cyclones. There definitely looks to be an increasing number of them over this decade.

SSTs are running 23-25 near the trof axis. With a decent cold core remaining above, this feature could well be on its way to beefing up deeper convection about the developing center of circulation. Wind shear is still high - and is most probably its greatest impediment. However, shear is also coming down some more now. This is a fairly robust situation overall for some kind of subtropical development, nameable, or not...

(User)

Thu Jan 10 2008 11:23 PM

off-season stuff

there's a bit more convection with this one, and a more clear anticyclone aloft. we've had olga and that almost-subtropical cyclone at the new year so far... can't make it two weeks without something trying to develop out there it seems.
i don't give this one any better odds than the last. it will have to really make a convincing case for being classified, since the nhc is probably getting plenty of static over naming hybrids that really are subtropical storms but that usually are way out to sea and at odd times of the year.
HF 2322z10january

Administrator

(Moderator)

Sun Jan 13 2008 05:49 PM

Re: off-season stuff

This one should get an A+ for longevity. It's been hanging around for several days. Given lower latitude and 6 months ago, this would be a nerve wracking Low.
Large GOES EAST WV Enhancement

If one or any of the models are correct. We should have cyclogenesis in the Western GOM or Bay of Campeche' in the next 48-72 hours.

Current models are predicting a surface Low to form. Wide area of probability from BOC to Padre Isle,TX area.
(Personally I'm watching the Tampico,MX to Bay of Campeche area).

FL Panhandle and Upper Peninsula residents might want to keep a eye on the GOM this week as there are possibilities of T W O separate Low pressure area forming in the GOM.

Earlier model runs have the first Low tracking toward the FL Big Bend Area. With the subsequent Low tracking near/ over the Mouth of the Mississippi River toward the Western Panhandle.

Latest model run has some conflict with the run 24 hours earlier. Earlier run was indicating surface subfreezing temperatures north of the 31N latitude.
Present 00Z and 06Z runs aren't indicating subfreezing temperatures at all near the surface.

(Moderator)

Sun Jan 13 2008 07:05 PM

Re: off-season stuff

Invest Floater 1 is now up on the feature out in the central Atlantic (link). Looks more than a little wanting, but has probably been running a range of T .5 to ST 1.5 over the past two or three days. It has certainly been another interesting post-season anomaly, although guessing by the combination of increasing shear and decreasing SSTs, the window for pulling anything more off looks to be closing.

(Weather Master)

Thu Mar 06 2008 04:57 PM

Re: off-season stuff

possible subtropical low around 28N/37W

(Moderator)

Thu Mar 06 2008 05:04 PM

ST Low?

Yep, I saw that myself.

It's an interesting little storm, but unless something changes it's probably not going to amount to much (though the models say it could be a very weak warm core system in a couple of days). Water temps are only 23 - 24, so unless there's some intensely cold air aloft, there won't be much to build from.

Ah well, just a reminder that things could pop up unexpectedly.

(Moderator)

Fri Mar 07 2008 05:31 AM

Re: ST Low?

This is becoming a more interesting feature to watch. I went to sleep last night and dreamt that I awoke to finding it had an Invest tag slapped on it overnight, so if my powers of clairvoyance are intact lol.

I think that the low is still showing clear signs of being having been undergoing warm seclusion. It's still quite frontal in nature. However, the parent ULL has certainly about cut off, and the fronts are becoming less obvious, with time. The most recent QuikSCAT pass looks remarkably symmetrical, with winds arguably sustained up to gale force near the center. Taken together with SSTs of around 67-69 F, all things considered, I think that enough cold air aloft exists for at least a little more transition into something that resembles a more classic-looking hybrid, but the process, if it does occur, will probably be a little slow, and the window might be small.

Floater 2

Administrator

(Moderator)

Mon Mar 24 2008 05:26 AM

2008 Hurricane Season

We now have less than 10 weeks until the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season begins.

Please take this as a reminder and begin to plan your work. Just in case you have to work your plan, should a Hurricane Watch or Warning be issued for your area this year.

Awaiting the Colorado State forecast update from Dr. Gray and his team. I'm sure that the weather anomalies that we have seen since January 1st will add to the mix for this year's Season.

The anomalies I'm referring to are the abundance of record and near-record snowfall accumulations, along the Canadian-U.S. Border States. And the extremely high deviation in the numbers of February Tornadoes. And lately the record rainfall, and near record river crests in the Missouri-Illinois areas.

Not to mention the Record High Temperatures in Southern Texass over the last 10-14 days. Breaking records as far back as 1929.

Good possibility of an interesting Season. But then all Seasons have a 50/ 50 chance of being bad. Right?

Don't forget to check your local area for the Hurricane Tax Free purchase dates this year.

Administrator

(Moderator)

Tue Mar 25 2008 03:10 AM

Warm SSTs Already???

While the Gulf of Mexico- GOM sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are a small part of the equation for Tropical Cyclone development. The current SSTs seem to be a bit or two above the norm.
Below are the SSTs on or about March 20th for the years 2005 through 2008. The SSTs for 2008 are a lot warmer in the NW Caribbean and the GOM Loop Current areas.
Edit: The images below would seem to indicate a warming of the GOM SSTs. However, peer review indicates that the Temperature Scale and coloring of the SSTs have changed over the last 3 years.
Where 25C would have been a light orange in 2005, it is now a deeper orange. Suggestive of warmer SSTs.~danielw

All of the photos are from Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory.
http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/index.html
http://fermi.jhuapl.edu/avhrr/gm/averages/index.html

2005

2006

2007

2008

(Weather Analyst)

Tue Mar 25 2008 04:07 AM

Re: Warm SSTs Already???

Quite interesting. A few other graphics that show the same high SSTs:

Here is a movie of the last week or so of SSTs from NRL:

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hhc/js/sst2.watl.jsmovie.html

(nice that the NRL SSTs are back online - was down most of last year)

And Rutgers SST from the 19th:

http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/show/?fil...79.0248.n17.jpg

(main ref: http://marine.rutgers.edu/cool/sat_data/?product=sst&region=gulfmexico&nothumbs=0 )

(Moderator)

Wed Mar 26 2008 12:29 AM

Re: Warm SSTs Already???

Might have to reconsider my own estimate of how the 2008 season turns out. That fetch of warm SSTs coming up from the Caribbean may be providing more than we are all bargaining for.

(Verified CFHC User)

Wed Mar 26 2008 09:23 AM

Re: Warm SSTs Already???

Hi all (Happy new year and so on ... )

It sure looks impressive on the pictures you posted. But if you compare the scales carefully you will notice quite an off-set. I only compared two pictures the one of 2005 and the one of 2008.

2005: the orange tone starts at around 27Â°C

2008: the orange tone starts at 25Â°C

This off-set of around 2Â°C makes it look very dramatic while in fact it probably is not that bad. I'm not saying that SSTs are lower than average since i did not look at the numbers themselfs. But be carefull when looking at these pictures and compare their scales carefully.

Vala

Administrator

(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))

Thu Mar 27 2008 02:43 AM

Re: Warm SSTs Already???

Excellent catch. Even between 2007 and 2008, the same temperature value is represented by a different color - the offset in 2008 is toward the warmer hues by about 2.5C. In simple terms, when correcting for this error in color scaling, the SSTs for 2008 are just about the same as for 2007, i.e., no true warming in 2008.
ED

(Weather Watcher)

Thu Mar 27 2008 10:35 PM

Re: 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st

Based upon the current conditions exisiting throughout the Atlantic basin, it looks quite ominous for the upcoming season. At this time, sea surface temperatures are above average all throughout the basin, excluding a small remote area off the GA coast, the SAL remains practically nonexistent as there is unusually high moisture content in the atmosphere over the Central Atlantic and off Africa, and we may enter hurricane season in a transition period between La Nina and El Nino. In fact, we may actually have seen La Nina peak about two months ago and signs indicate that La Nina has begun weakening. From what I remember, some bad hurricane seasons have occurred when we have undergone such a transition.

But, as weather has always taught us, only time will tell how the elements come together. We need to be preparing our plans for the upcoming season now so that we may be ready for whatever Mother Nature may have in store for us.

(Weather Analyst)

Sat Mar 29 2008 04:57 AM

Re: Warm SSTs Already???

After seeing Valandil's comment, I went back and did a comparison of the warmest part of the gulf from 2005 and again from 2008, matching the color to the gradient.

Warmest part in 2005 was about 25.5C
Warmest part in 2008 is about 26.5C

This was done on the March 28th maps for both years from the JH-APL page. So yes, it is warmer, but not by as much as Danny was indicating. Still, a 1C difference is significant...

Administrator

(Moderator)

Sun Mar 30 2008 01:20 AM

Re: Warm SSTs Already???

I'll take a Ten Yard penalty for False Start on my earlier post.
I failed to check the temperature scales. Shame on me. I should have known that something was amiss due to the drastic changes. Thanks to all for correcting the post.

Administrator

(Moderator)

Sun Mar 30 2008 01:52 AM

Current SSTs vs April 20,2007

Current GOM SSTs in Celcius.
27C Extends TO the Yucatan Channel.

Larger Image

GOM SSTs from April20,2007
27C are Scattered in the GOM Loop Current

Larger Image

UNCLASSIFIED Images courtesy of U.S. Navy
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/main.pl?ocean

The April 20th,2007 graphic is the only available archived Gulf Stream South summary that I could find.~danielw

Administrator

(Moderator)

Sun Mar 30 2008 10:39 AM

Eastern and Middle GOM Buoy Water Temps

42003-26Â° 02' 00" N 85Â° 53' 30" W
#YY MM DD hh mm WTMP
2008 03 29 20 49 26.5C

42001-25Â°54'0" N 89Â°40'0" W
#YY MM DD hh mm WTMP
2008 03 30 09 50 25.1C

These are the Peak Water Temperatures in the last 24 hours.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

Data is from the:
U.S. Dept. of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Weather Service
National Data Buoy Center
1007 Balch Blvd.
Stennis Space Center, MS 39529

Administrator

(Moderator)

Mon Mar 31 2008 12:43 AM

SSTs revisited

I will attempt a graphical retraction of my earlier SST Warming post.

I have enhanced the images below.
For 2008. All SSTs above 27C are bright green in color.

For 2007 all SSTs above 27C are bright blue in color.

The 2007, 27C SSTs extended as far north as the 28N latitude line, In the Loop Current.

And this year they are no further than the 26N latitude line, in the Loop Current.

The SST temperature scale, on the graphics has changed since 2005.

Lamar-Plant City

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Mar 31 2008 06:57 PM

Re: SSTs revisited

The Florida Straits DO look a bit warmer this year. It would be cool to see the area from the straits SE of those pictures as a comparison as well. Good catch on the scales. I had a feeling something was amiss as we have NOT had that much warm weather this spring to lead me to believe the Gulf is much warmer than usual. Didn't have a lot of really cold weather this winter either, so it balances out a little. Just for trivia, the beach water temps here in the Tampa area just crested the 70 degree F line this weekend (I guess that would be 21 degree C).

(Weather Guru)

Mon Mar 31 2008 07:36 PM

Re: SSTs revisited

Wow the anomalies in the eastern atlantic are crazy!

Administrator

(Moderator)

Tue Apr 01 2008 08:52 AM

Re: SSTs revisited

Quote:

...Good catch on the scales. I had a feeling something was amiss as we have NOT had that much warm weather this spring to lead me to believe the Gulf is much warmer than usual...

Actually, I missed the change in the scales. Several of the other members reviewed my post and found the scales had changed. I enhanced the graphics that I had posted to reflect the changes.
I believe this is called Peer Review.

(Also known as Check Your Data First.)

Administrator

(Moderator)

Sun Apr 06 2008 03:43 AM

Additional SST images

The following are current SST enhancements from NOAA's AOML.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/go.html
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential Loop

Depth 26.C Isotherm

Sea Height Anomaly

Sea Surface Temperature Loop

Images should update daily.

Administrator

(Moderator)

Sun Apr 06 2008 03:55 AM

Re: Additional SST images

More from NOAA's AOML.

04APRIL2005
Larger Image

04APRIL2006
Larger Image

04APRIL2007
Larger Image

03APRIL2008
Larger Image

(Weather Guru)

Mon Apr 07 2008 07:09 PM

Re: Additional SST images

They anomalies continue to get cool!The Hurricane heat content is a non issue across the atlantic.What might this all mean come this hurricane season we will find out.

Administrator

(Moderator)

Fri Apr 11 2008 05:04 AM

First Atlantic Tropical Wave of 2008

Excerpt from the evening Tropical Weather Discussion from NHC/ TPC.
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU APR 10 2008

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN E OF 40W...
OTHERWISE...AN ELONGATED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
W AFRICA TO JUST E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...WITH AN AXIS RUNNING
FROM 20N06W TO 12N53W. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS DECREASED OVER
THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC THE LAST FEW DAYS...THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF
INTEREST WHICH HAVE EMERGED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. THE FIRST
IS A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER N OF THE ITCZ...WITH WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 5N18W MOVING W AT
15 TO 20 KT. THIS FEATURE COULD BE CONSIDERED ONE OF THE
SEASONS FIRST AFRICAN EASTERLY WAVES. THE SECOND FEATURE IS
ALONG ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH OF NORTHEASTERLIES CONVERGING
WITH EASTERLIES BETWEEN 8N AND 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W. EARLIER
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED A TIGHTLY-COILED LOW- TO
PERHAPS MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION NEAR
9N46W....THOUGH THE CONVECTION SINCE THAT TIME HAS COLLAPSED.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/printable.php?pil=TWD&sid=AT&date=2008-04-10%2023:46:57

Earlier rainbow enhancement of the Wave at 1800Z or 2pm EDT Thursday. Center of the circulation, at that time is near the bright red area near the bottom, center of the graphic. Directly above the "A" in APR 10 08

Taken 48 hours prior to the above picture at 2 pm EDT Tuesday.
This would appear to indicate that the current wave, in the first picture of this post, could be wave number 3.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Fri Apr 11 2008 07:37 AM

Re: SSTs revisited

wow. kind of early for a wave like that to roll off africa.

Administrator

(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))

Sat Apr 12 2008 12:43 PM

Re: First Atlantic Tropical Wave of 2008

Latest images (12/12Z) indicate that it is all but gone - but another small wave is noted on the African continent near 7N 8E. Nothing impressive yet - the tropics remain quiet in the basin, but in three months I'm sure we'll see quite a different picture.
ED

(Weather Watcher)

Sun Apr 13 2008 12:58 AM

Something Tropical Brewing near Trinidad?

Over the past several hours, it has become evident that a low-level circulation has developed along a trough producing heavy convection near Trinidad. Just watch the latest VIS/IR satellite imagery for yourself. Shear has been decreasing over and preceding the system and convection seems to be maintaining itself. Will have to watch this area, although any tropical development is unlikely to occur.

Here is the latest image.

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/faq.php#rules
Image size and linking.

Comments?

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Apr 20 2008 04:36 AM

Re: Something Tropical Brewing near Trinidad?

What do you guys think of the impressive features rolling off africa this early? Isnt this usually reserved for June. What does it mean 3 months from now.

(Moderator)

Mon Apr 21 2008 04:08 AM

Re: Something Tropical Brewing near Trinidad?

Nothing much doing there now. Not only are SSTs still rather marginal for tropical development, but whatever lower-level reflection may have been ever-so-briefly trying to take hold is awash in a tempest of very strong upper-level winds. We're still a good 1-2 months before the MDR starts to become noticeably favorable for TC genesis. Until then, if anything were to pop, it would most likely be from a cut-off ULL that bores down to the surface and begins acquiring subtropical characteristics, and this usually takes a lot of time and even then conditions have to be so, so right.

Lamar-Plant City

(Storm Tracker)

Mon Apr 21 2008 03:47 PM

Re: SSTs revisited

I am interested to see how last week's cold snap affected SSTs. I know the in-shore water temps have dropped at least 2 degrees after the 4 cold nights and 3 cool days we had. Also will be interesting to see how far out into the Gulf the cooler temps were effective.

Administrator

(Moderator)

Thu Apr 24 2008 12:44 AM

ENSO Update

Ed has posted an update to the ENSO forecast in the Storm Forum.
His current analog year, if I read it right, would be 1985.
He lists 1985 as "quite similar to the current and expected pattern". With 1974,2000,1971,1950, and 1989 following respectively.
(Ed, I hope I got that last sentence right.)
Here are the quick run downs of what happened in 1985. More information is available at the NHC/ TPC website.

Ana-Near Bermuda and Sable Island

Bob- Naples/ Ft Myers to Vero Beach,Fl with landfall near Beaufort,SC

Claudette-Formed near the Mouth of the MS River. Moved east to SE GA Coast, near Cape Hatteras, Bermuda and near the Azores Islands.

Danny-Tropical Wave off of Africa, to near Grand Cayman Islands, to SE GOM, 24hr Intensification to Hurricane, with landfall near Cameron, LA

Elena-Cape Verde wave, 30 knots forward speed to Cuba to SE GOM, toward the NW-then East to the FL Big Bend area, back toward the WNW with landfall near Biloxi,MS. Labor Day weekend Headache of a storm.
At one time or another the Coast from Morgan City,LA to Sarasota,Fl was under a Hurricane Warning. Hence the "Headache Storm".

Fabian-Formed 300 nm South of San Juan,PR. Moved ENE into North Atlantic.

Gloria-Cape Verde Is. to Leeward Is. to the Bahamas to Outer Banks,NC to Western Long Is. NY

Henri-Formed NE of the Bahamas and moved NNE on a track similar to Gloria.

Isabel-Cape Verde wave. From N of Hispaniola to landfall near Savannah,GA.

Juan-Formed in Central GOM in late October.Landfall near Morgan City,LA to Mouth of the MS River to 2nd landfall east of Pensacola,FL

Kate-Mid November storm formed near Virgin Is., to near the SE Bahamas, to near Havana,Cuba, to a landfall near Mexico Beach, FL

Again... this is a quick summation of the NHC tracks from their Archives. At some point during 1985 a Tropical system was threatening the U.S. from the upper Texas Coast to Long Island,N.Y.
Now that's a lot of real estate!!

(Weather Guru)

Sat Apr 26 2008 03:49 PM

Re: ENSO Update

These two images speak for themselves. The second image was issued this past Tuesday. SST were forecast to below normal and now they are forecast to be above average for much of MDR. In addition to this shear values are already expected to below normal, extremely below normal in some places.

April 13 SST forecast

April 22 SST forecast

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sun Apr 27 2008 04:37 PM

Re: ENSO Update

how can shear be forecasted?

Administrator

(Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017))

Mon Apr 28 2008 04:15 AM

Re: ENSO Update

The short answer is that, in the long term, shear cannot be forecasted with any reasonable degree of accuracy. It can be implied from expected patterns, but those patterns, e.g. long waves, associated jet streams, etc., can themselves be wrong (and often are at the seasonal level). In the short term (up to three or four days) shear can be predicted with reasonable accuracy at the synoptic scale, but beyond that timeframe the accuracy and value of the forecast deteriorates rapidly. If a seasonal forecast for a region predicts high precipitation, the implication might be for more fronts and low pressure systems in that regon and therefore higher wind shear, but it doesn't always work out that way. Florida gets a lot of thunderstorms in the Summer (and therefore its a normal region of higher precipitation) but thats an expectation associated with temperature and seabreeze, i.e., climatology, rather than fronts and extratropical cyclones.

The SST forecast has changed (as noted in the Storm Forum) but all that really means is that the SST forecast for the Pacific ENSO regions that was made six months ago MAY no longer be accurate (keep in mind that the current forecast may also turn out to be inaccurate and the older forecast could still verify). The current forecast only suggests that any conclusions that may have been implied based on the earlier forecast should be revisited for potential revision.

I personally am not familiar with any accurate long term windshear forecasting technique.
Cheers,
ED

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Tue Apr 29 2008 06:45 PM

Re: ENSO Update

thanks for the answer. I fear if shear IS relaxed the season will be rough.

(Weather Guru)

Tue Apr 29 2008 11:11 PM

Re: ENSO Update

CFS wind shear prediction anomalies:

Current Wind Shear Prediction Anomalies

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu May 01 2008 07:07 AM

Re: 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st

hello, Would anybody happen to know the forecast of hurricanes that may hit central america and the caribbean ,2008 season? thanks for the info.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Thu May 01 2008 12:13 PM

Re: 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st

Quote:

hello, Would anybody happen to know the forecast of hurricanes that may hit central america and the caribbean ,2008 season? thanks for the info.

impossible to tell. Although steering currents will be pointed storms more into the gulf and towards the north atlantic this year. As opposed to last year.

(Weather Watcher)

Fri May 02 2008 08:47 PM

Second Tropical Wave of Season

We now have the second tropical wave off Africa. Satellite image and info below.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 2N10W 2N20W EQUATOR AT 34W THEN
1N43W INTO NE BRAZIL. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 3N TO 9N EAST OF 20W TO THE
AFRICAN COAST. A SFC TROUGH WAS ANALYZED IN THIS AREA ALONG
15W/16W ON THE 12Z SFC MAP. THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH EVIDENCE TO
SUGGEST THAT THIS COULD BE A TROPICAL WAVE. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED INVERTED V-PATTERN. THE HOVMOLLER DIAGRAM
ALSO INDICATES THE WWD PROPAGATION OF THIS SYSTEM DURING LAST
TWO DAYS...AND THE BAMAKO SOUNDING SHOWED THE PASSAGE OF THIS
TROUGH/WAVE BETWEEN APRIL 30 AND MAY 1ST. BASED ON THIS DATA AND
THE TIME OF THE YEAR...A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BE INTRODUCED ON THE
18Z MAP.

(old image link removed~danielw)

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Sat May 03 2008 12:46 AM

Re: Second Tropical Wave of Season

Quote:

We now have the second tropical wave off Africa. Satellite image and info below.

Well probably nothing will come of it out there. Possibily if it breaks off into the gulf in 2 weeks it may spin up a LLC similiar to alberto or barry which would bring it into a good time frame, . Its kind of rare to see full waves roll off africa so soon.

(User)

Sat May 10 2008 02:12 PM

retirements?

Went google searching earlier because I was surprised that there hasn't been an official name retirement announcement for last year's list; usually we find out in April and we're well into May. NHC hasn't updated their storm name list, but according to sources over at S2K (not offficial, but I believe them), there were three names knocked off last year's list (which is due up again in 2013). Dean is out, Felix is out... no suprises there. Noel was iffier because it did all it's mayhem as a tropical storm, but it out also. The new entries are Dorian, Fernand, and Nestor. The active span we've been in for the last dozen years or so has really eaten away at the original set of names, at least in the first half of the alphabet.
HF 1512z10may

(User)

Tue May 13 2008 02:11 AM

Re: retirements?

Interesting... Looks like they are doing some kind of test run. They just issued an advisory dated 9/13/08 for "Ophelia" with tropical storm warnings and hurricane warnings for South and North Carolina. You can see it on the main page listed under "Noel".

TROPICAL STORM Ophelia FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162005
0300Z TUE SEP 13 2008

Bill

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed May 14 2008 07:20 PM

Re: retirements?

here ya go hank... they posted it online now:

Dean, Felix, and Noel Retired From List of Storm Names
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080513_stormnames.html

(Weather Guru)

Wed May 14 2008 09:05 PM

Re: retirements?

NOW THAT WOULD BE WEIRD IF OPHELIA FORMED ON THAT DATE.

Unregistered User

(Unregistered)

Wed May 14 2008 10:36 PM

Re: retirements?

Quote:

NOW THAT WOULD BE WEIRD IF OPHELIA FORMED ON THAT DATE.

They wont be using Ophelia this year. Omar will takes its place.

(User)

Sun May 18 2008 01:15 PM

fun with models

The gfs keeps coughing and nudging everybody's collective side with a northward-moving west-Caribbean sort of feature at the end of the month. I'm starting to pay attention, since run after run it keeps showing up. It might be some sort of MJO-induced flareup... haven't looked into that, but know the Indian ocean cyclone at month's beginning and subsequent Westpac activity has been that sort of thing.
Always have to be suspicious about things the models show trying to emerge in that neck of the woods, since oftentimes they tend to get shoved westward into the Pacific... or just sorta wallow over Central America and never organize. GFS has been surprisingly adamant about something trying to be there, though; starting around Memorial Day something might try to cook off.
HF 1415z18may

Administrator

(Moderator)

Tue May 20 2008 02:54 AM

Re: fun with models

Fun with models... reminds me that I need to see what changes they have introduced to the Tropical Models this year. Nearly always have a tweak or two here and there.
Model Updates

Most of the folks around the Atlantic and GOM coasts and beaches will probably have a 3 day weekend and Barbeque on their mind and not much else.

The Florida Hurricane Season Sales Tax Holiday has been eliminated this year.
Sales Tax Holiday Eliminated

Administrator

(Moderator)

Tue May 20 2008 03:27 AM

Re: fun with models

FXUS06 KWBC 191905
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
300 PM EDT MON MAY 19 2008

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 27 - JUN 02, 2008:

...A DRYING
TREND IS EXPECTED AS 500-HPA HEIGHTS INCREASE WITH A WEAKENING TROUGH. DRIER
THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS BUT HIGH
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR FLORIDA. OPERATIONAL MODEL
RUNS HAVE CONSISTENTLY INDICATED A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
IN ALASKA.
(emphasis added~danielw)

Current NCEP HPC Discussions

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Tue May 20 2008 06:36 PM

Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season

hmm... i seen the 12z NAM and GFS want to bring up some tropical airmass into the northern GOM in the next few days... MUCH NEED RAIN would be nice.... come out of bay of campeche and moves NE toward the NE gulf coast....

54hr NAM 12z 5/20/08

(post moved to existing discussion.)

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Wed May 21 2008 04:43 AM

Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season

nice 18z package.... if it holds, i could see a LOT of rain thurs/fri. MUCH NEEDED rain... although this looks like it may cause problems if that cutoff low coming out of the mx.. hits this sub-tropical jet.... we may get soaked bad....??? (heck.... one year ago... it was hot as hell from the High pressure over head... and all the forest fires.... what a difference a yr makes....)

*** side not... long range models are getting a little jumpy... especially around the first of the month....***

I was thinking we may have something to talk about on the holiday weekend

(Veteran Storm Chaser)

Thu May 22 2008 03:52 PM

Re: First Day of Eastern Pacific Hurricane Season

NOAA Predicts Near Normal or Above Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080522_hurricaneoutlook.html

Full report

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/hurricane.shtml

(Meteorologist)

Thu May 22 2008 05:34 PM

Re: 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st

I have placed a header on the main page that contains a link to NOAA's tropical prediction/assessment for this 2008 season, for those who are interested.

~Tip

(Meteorologist)

Sun May 25 2008 05:41 PM

Re: 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st

GFS won't let the idea go......12Z run this morning puts a 997mb low smack dab in the middle of the Gulf on the morning of the 4th. It's persistent, but I am obviously skeptical.

Administrator

(Moderator)

Mon May 26 2008 01:25 AM

Re: 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season Begins June 1st

Quote:

GFS won't let the idea go......12Z run this morning puts a 997mb low smack dab in the middle of the Gulf on the morning of the 4th. It's persistent, but I am obviously skeptical.

Persistant or consistant. The GFS has now been joined by the CMC (Canadian) and ECMWF (Euro. Med Range Model). Looks like a train of models are onto something... repeat something.

Here is the last paragraph from today's Extended Forecast Discussion from HPC .
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
211 PM EDT SUN MAY 25 2008

VALID 12Z WED MAY 28 2008 - 12Z SUN JUN 01 2008

...CMC/ECMWF/GFS ALL CONT THEIR PERSISTENT TREND TOWARDS TROPICAL
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR YUCATAN MID PERIOD AS MODELS BUILD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WITH LOW WIND SHEAR OVER CENTRAL AMERICA/WEST CARRIBEAN.
HPC POSITIONING IS A MODEL/ENSEMBLE MEAN LOCATIONAL AND PRESSURE
AVERAGE.

And From NWS Slidell,LA
Sunday Afternoon AFD~time sensitive
...THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS...ECMWF...AND CMC CONTINUE A PERSISTENT
TREND OF FORECASTING SOME TYPE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE AREA
FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AREA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO KNOW IF DEVELOPMENT
WOULD OCCUR...OR WHERE ANY SYSTEM WOULD END UP GOING EARLY NEXT
WEEK. REFER TO HPC EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FOR MORE
DETAILS. FOR OUR WEATHER...IT LOOKS IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM TO HOT NEXT WEEKEND. 22

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center