| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 03:14 AM |
Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba
|
Update 5:00 AM EDT 17 August 2008
...WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE
DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM
CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
1 AM EDT 17 August 2008 Update
Fay has become a bit better organized this evening, with a well-defined surface circulation traveling just north of due west along the south coast of Cuba. Deep convection is somewhat elongated east-west given the interaction with the Cuban landmass, but as we near the diurnal convective maximum deep convection is starting to become organized over the surface circulation, perhaps signaling the beginning of an intensification trend. Heat content is very high and shear is very low, making inner core processes and landmass interaction the likely limiting factors upon a period of intensification.
Sunday, Fay is expected to continue along its general path paralleling the southern coast of Cuba as it nears the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. Model guidance is tightly clustered on a track that takes it along or near the west coast of the Florida peninsula early-mid week as a minimal hurricane. Needless to say, everyone in Florida needs to be watching this storm during the day Sunday and as we move into the workweek on Monday. We'll have further updates throughout the day Sunday.
5PM EDT 16 August 2008 Update
Fay has weakened a bit, and looks a little ragged on satellite, but the forecast still takes it across Cuba to affect the West Coast of Florida, but all the areas in the cone below need to watch. Currently it is forecast to be a Category 1 hurricane around 90MPH near Sarasota Tuesday. This could be off either way so everyone in the Cone needs to be watching the system closely, especially after it crosses Cuba.
From the 5PM 8/16 Discussion:
"When fay is over water... it appears that atmospheric conditions will be favorable for strengthening through 72 hours. Thus... the intensity will be controlled by land interaction and the resulting impacts on the storm structure.
All guidance continues to forecast strengthening... and the intensity forecast follows suit in bet agreement with the ships model. However... this is a low confidence intensity forecast. Fay could strengthen rapidly if it becomes well organized over water, such as while passing south of Cuba,, or over the straits of Florida, on the other hand... it might not strengthen much at all if land interaction prevents organization."
So the current intensity forecast is a compromise, hopefully the forecast is too strong. This is the part that probably causes the hurricane center the most grief with warning issuance.
Right now it is prudent to remain calm, and if you are along the coast, think about doing preparations tomorrow or Monday, and have supplies ready over the next couple fo days.
All watches and warnings for the Bahamas have been dropped.
11AM EDT 16 August 2008 Update
Hurricane Watches up for Cuba, in Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spritius.
Tropical Storm Warnings, up for similar areas in Cuba,
Tropical Storm Watches are up for Jamaica
Nothing Watch/Warning Wise for Florida.
Tropical Storm fay is over water according to the latest NHC advisories, and will enter into Cuba soon. Most of the convection is to the East and South of the system.
The latest forecast track focuses in on the Western Coast of Florida, those along the entire Florida peninsula should keep a very close eye on Fay over the next few days, especially those on the West Coast. Pay attention to local media, officials, and more when it comes to your particular area.
Intensity wise, the Hurricane center has mentioned there is a low confidence, it all hinges on how much land (Cuba) disrupts the system. It could be weaker or stronger than the forecast indicates.
7AM EDT 16 August 2008 Update
Fay continues to present a very difficult forecast, combine very positive conditions for strengthening, with the very negative conditions of land interactions, along with a very oblique angel of approach near Florida, and you have a situation that causes a very large cone.
Everyone in the cone should be paying attention to what Fay does, unfortunately this includes Eastern Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, All of Florida, Georgia, and most of South Carolina coasts right now. Cuba will have to deal with this system as well, but Cuba and Hispaniola may also keep it from gaining too much strength, however, when it does move north of Cuba, conditions in that part of the Gulf/ocean may be conductive for restrengthening. It depends on how much the system gets disrupted while over land.
The Florida Keys, specifically the western keys, have the most to keep an eye on later (Tuesday midday). The west coast of Florida has the highest potential to be impacted right now. The National Hurricane Center's forecast track is likely the best bet for now, but DO NOT focus on the central part, any slight deviation could mean much bigger impacts for the Florida west coast, or up toward the panhandle or points westward. If the system remains intact after getting over land, it may cause watches/warnings over a huge chunk of the coast for the US. Model runs are fairly along the NHC's track, some bring it in to the Peninsula, others keep it in the Gulf up toward the central Gulf.
More to come as it is learned.
General Fay Related Links:
Florida Emergency Management / floridadisaster.org
Cuban Radar Flhurricane Recording of Cuban Mosaic radar
Skeetobite Track Zoom of Fay
Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
{{radarlink|tbw|Tampa Bay, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Melbourne FL Radar}}
Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)
Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay
Dominican Republic Radar (Flhurricane Recording/Loop of this Radar)
{{StormCarib}}
Fay plotted on Google Map
{{StormLinks|Fay|06|6|2008|1|Fay}}
Main Update
Tropical Storm Fay continues westward across Hispaniola this early Saturday morning, bringing heavy rainfall to the very mountainous island. Given the impressive mid-level storm organization, Fay is holding its own over the island, leaving Cuba as the last major landmass hurdle before nearing the Florida Straits.
The potential for significant landmass interaction over the next couple of days makes any long-range forecast inherently tricky given that we do not have a good handle on how intense the storm will be once it gets to and leaves Cuba, yet alone the track that it will take across the island. Add in the inherent inability fo the computer models to handle island interaction very well plus the errors that grow in the forecasts as you move out in time and you get a recipe for potential forecast changes down the road.
That said, there is a growing consensus for Fay to emerge from Cuba and take a track paralleling the Florida peninsula. Whether that ends up being just east -- likely for an initially stronger, further north storm or deeper-than-anticipated east coast trough -- or somewhat west of the peninsula -- likely for an initially weaker, further south storm -- remains up in the air. The intensity forecast highly depends upon the degree of organization after Cuba as well as how close to Florida the storm travels thereafter. All other conditions appear favorable for intensification, however.
Everyone from Charleston, SC to New Orleans, LA needs to pay attention to this storm this weekend, particularly those in the entire state of Florida. The angle of approach makes precision key for gauging potential high impact regions, but it's a level of precision that we just do not have the skill to display. With such a wide range of evolutions still in the air, everyone should just keep an eye to the weather this weekend. By late Sunday, we'll have a pretty good idea where Fay is heading and with what sort of intensity.
The Forecast Lounge is available for long-range model discussion and 'shooting the breeze' about the storm.
Elsewhere, the former 93L is no longer a significant development threat given a strong upper low moving into its path just east of the Lesser Antilles. Further east, a well-defined tropical wave is embedded within the ITCZ southwest of the Cape Verde Islands but is showing no signs of development at this time. Discussion of these features may be found in the Storm Forum or Forecast Lounge.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 03:36 AM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba
|
Clark just started a new Thread and new Main Page Article above. Keep in mind that the posts there must relate to the Main Page and that there is a Thread already in the Forecast Lounge for model speculation and gut feelings, etc..otherwise it will probably be moved or deleted.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 03:41 AM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba
|
The computer models are in pretty good agreement upon the evolution of the upper-level weather pattern across the United States through the next 72 hours. The three key features will be the following:
1) The westward extent of the subtropical ridge axis across the southeast Atlantic Ocean
2) The depth of the trough across the eastern/northeastern United States
3) The evolution of the cut-off upper low currently across the intermountain west of the United States
The first two are somewhat related to one another; a deeper trough, even by just a hundred miles, will force the western edge of the subtropical ridge to be weaker and/or shifted a bit further east. This will allow for a turn further east, such as is currently shown by the Canadian and ECMWF models. No model is currently showing a full capture and recurvature, however, given the large distance between the storm and trough, with each drastically slowing the storm down as a ridge builds in across the eastern United States. Conversely, a weaker trough will allow for a stronger ridge, allowing the storm to be steered further west before turning northward.
What should we watch for with these things? Take a look at the upper air data from Florida, the Bahamas (if available), Bermuda, and truthfully the entire eastern seaboard. How are observations every 12 hours comparing to the model analyses and forecasts? If they are comparing poorly, in which direction are they doing so? We are still likely a day or two away from getting a high altitude recon surveillance flight ahead of the storm, making what observations we have now of the utmost importance from an analysis standpoint.
The seasonal trend all summer has been for a deeper east coast trough. The normally reliable and trustworthy ECMWF, the best forecast model in the world, has been insistent on one of the most eastward tracks of the entire model suite. It is tough to discount that possibility given those two factors, but it is tough to put much stock in it as well given the large latitudinal difference between Fay and the northeast US trough and the number of other forecast models suggesting a track further west. We (and I) don't want to model hug, but the models are tools that can and should be used with the proper understanding.
The evolution of the cut-off low across the intermountain west will be particularly interesting as well. We have a blocking structure in place, somewhat of a cross between an omega and Rex block, across MT/WY/CO this early morning. Blocks by definition are tough to forecast; models often tend to break them down too early and eject their energy toward the east too early. There is pretty good agreement, however, in this cut-off moving into the south-central Plains by Monday and then eastward from there. How far east this feature makes it by Monday will play a large role in how far west Fay makes it: a cut-off that is slower in ejecting will result, all other factors being equal, in a storm that makes it further west -- perhaps on the western edge of the model guidance. A faster ejecting cut-off will result, all other factors being equal, in an earlier turn. Watching the water vapor satellite loop over the weekend will give us all a good idea how this is going to unfold.
All of this discounts storm-scale processes -- land interaction, convective organization, and so on and so forth -- that will play an important role. A deeper storm in the short term is going to be more likely to "feel" the tug of the troughs and find any weakness on the periphery of the subtropical ridge. A weaker storm is going to be more likely to be steered with the low level flow, implying a further west track at least initially. So far, Fay has generally gone south of model forecasts given the slow organization process partially caused by land interaction and center reformation within the deeper convection. Short story long here, let's see what Haiti and Cuba do with the storm before making any drastic calls.
Intensity-wise, discounting land effects both with Cuba and Florida, the upper level pattern is likely to be favorable for intensification in the Caribbean and Gulf with a well-defined upper ridge northeast of the storm, weak upper-level low just ahead of the storm enhancing upper level diffluence, and upper-level low about 15 degrees east of the storm providing an outflow channel. Heat content is very high in the northwest Caribbean Sea and reasonably high in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
That's the setup for now. Wanna discuss a long range forecast? Try the Forecast Lounge
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 06:02 AM |
|
|
ship obs
|
Hey anyone have any thoughts on these observations? sems a little out of place but pretty significant 61knt winds.
National Data bouy center
| Aesh |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 06:05 AM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba
|
A deeper storm in the short term is going to be more likely to "feel" the tug of the troughs and find any weakness on the periphery of the subtropical ridge. A weaker storm is going to be more likely to be steered with the low level flow, implying a further west track at least initially.
Angelina
Florida Drug Treatment
| DarleneCane |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 07:42 AM |
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba
|
Her feeder bands and her strong area of convection over water is keeping her stronger than one would think for a storm over land. A good part of her remains over water and this trend will continue even more as she moves west. This can be seen on the water vapor loop here.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
I would also think that as she was intensifying and formed over land she would be less hurt by land than a strong storm that hits land after functioning better over water. I don't know if there is any scientific explanation for this but from observation I have seen the mtns of Haiti have less of an affect on such storms.
As for the high pressure ridge, if Fay intensifies as she may be doing would that not help break down the ridge earlier than expected? The models previously kept Fay as a weaker storm at this point and did not account for an intensification.
The waters of the Windward Passage are hot and depending where she hits it she would be over very warm water for some time leading to further intensification.
I would think the models may shift back to the left somewhat if she does intensify.
SkeetoBite
|
| (Master of Maps) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 07:59 AM |
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba
|
Obviously this will shift East and West for a couple of days. This image will update automatically.
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 08:08 AM |
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba
|
I think it is a good time to remind people who maybe new to the forum or new to Florida not to focus on the straight line on the forcast track.If you are in the cone you need to watch this just a closely as if you are on the straight line.This storm is going to be tricky,both for intensity and track,mainly because of it's interaction with land.We should know more after it leaves Cuba.The imitate concern for the U.S. is the keys and ALL of south Florida.It is amazing how this storm has kept it's strength while over land.Don't let this system take you by surprise.if you are in the cone pay close attention to this storm.
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 08:44 AM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba
|
I'm not trying to alarm anyone, but I think now would be a good time to take a look at your hurricane preparation plans. Especially, your elevation.
To know what you would do if a certain strength storm were to approach or pass by your location. There are a lot of storm surge vunerable areas on
the West coast of Florida, so it's good to know what evacuation zone your in just in case you need to act. Fay is gonna be another one of THOSE storms,
we're just going to have to hold our breath and watch. The models are in fairly good agreement the storm will be in the Eastern Gulf in a few days, so the waiting begins.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 09:59 AM |
|
|
Center reforming?
|
Last night there was some speculation of the center reforming near the areas of convection slightly south of its present location. With only a few frames available on the visible, it looks as though this may be happening, just south of the Haiti coast, a few 10ths of a degree south of last position. This will put Fay over water for a longer period, and give the models fits.
| DarleneCane |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 10:20 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
I don't think so. One could make an argument for it but if you watch the loop carefully, the visible loop you can see the center with the coordinates to the north of that area. This storm has always had an area of strong convection to the south of the center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html
Either way the satellite presentation is improving with banding more visible.
And, we are beginning to see signs of a sharper turn on a few models that would mean a few degrees further west now do not change the turn later as the turn is pretty evident on the water vapor however the visible shows the center twisting still.
It could relocate but once over water the center will become more evident I think.
Sharp turns in hurricane history happen all the time. Both King and Cleo turned sharply and even though they came from different angles the landfall and track was the same. The reason was the same, they felt the pull of a trough diving down and rode it north. That should not be forgotten.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 10:35 AM |
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
I believe that the center is close to or has just exited the coast and it appears that the system is no worse for the wear.
Since Hispañola did nothing to really impede Fay's structure, I see no reason why it can't strengthen to a very strong tropical storm by tomorrow. In fact, the upper level low to the northeast of Fay is providing a rather impressive vent for Fay.
I am looking forward to seeing what the next advisory has to hold for us.
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 10:41 AM |
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
I believe that Fay's Center is over the narrow passage of land in Hati's SW corner. If you watch the visible loops this becomes evident. Also if you go back to IR, Fay's coldest cloud tops are warming pretty significantly. At the edge of the island on that peninsula is a 12,000 ft mountain. If Fay's center passes over that, it's likely to do some damage. If the COC can stay north of that location, she may survive with little more damage than has already been done. Should know in the next few hours what kind of impact Hati will have on Fay.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 10:47 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
Well, the NHC has it just exiting the coast just before the area where the Peninsula juts out.
But, the very nature of the system has been more of a midlevel system with a weaker surface reflection. I don't believe that Fay will suffer normally the damage that many a vigorous low level circulation has had at the hands of Haiti.
EDIT: Actually, it's well over the water now. It should clear the Peninsula within the next few hours.
| DaViking |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 10:52 AM |
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
Pico Duarte in the Dominican Republic is the highest peak in all the Caribbean islands at 10,164 feet.
Pic la Selle is the highest peak in Haiti at 8,793 feet. it is in southern Haiti, near the Dominican border.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 10:58 AM |
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
Taking into account the latest model runs, the NHC has the center at 26N and 82W just off the coast of Naples Tuesday Morning and a NNW track moving just inland as it moves Northward.
Snce it's the weekend and many of your friends and neighbors may not be keeping close tabs on this storm, Please spread the word that it's quite possible to have Hurricane conditions in SW and West Central Florida by Tuesday morning.
As always listen to your local weather forecasts and now is the time to take some action to be prepared should Faye affect y our area.
| bradrd |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 11:09 AM |
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
The 12z runs just up have most all shifted way east.Not sure if this is a 1 or 2 run thing but it now seems the main area by the models is the southwest coast of florida and exit out the east.
we shall see what happens in the next few runs.
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 11:23 AM |
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
Cuban Radar from the SE coast of Cuba. This should help with COC location. Looks to be pretty much where NHC says it is, pretty exposed right now..
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0.../gpdMAXw01a.gif
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 11:27 AM |
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
Last satellite I saw looked like the mountain of Hispanola DID take out a fair amount of convection in the north half of the storm, but DIDN'T disrupt the overall circulation pattern as often happens there. Yes, the models have shifted a bit east, but please don't make much of these run-to-run wobbles until a clear pattern gets established. It seems pretty certain that this is a Florida storm, but that is really about as far as we can go. Be prepared....keep calm....stay tuned.
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 11:53 AM |
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
If the storm spends much time over water it could strengthen rapidly. In the event there is an evacuation ordered please take your
pets with you. Or at least make arrangements for them. Pets are not going to be ok tied to a tree in a back yard or even loose (fences
do come down). Leaving the pet in the house while you are gone might not be the best option either
in case you end up being gone longer than expected. There are hotels that take pets.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 12:10 PM |
| Attachment |
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
I'm going to stick my neck out a bit and and say this is the COC (not an eye). It will be interesting to see what happens over open water. See attached
Let me qualify that - the COC at the surface is further west than this image - if she gets all the pieces lined up I think we could see some rapid development
| laurie66 |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 12:21 PM |
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
Hi all I am not exactly new to these boards Ive been monitoring them for a long time , you guys are addicting to watch and sometimes funny so anyway Im not a professional either and have never posted but I do live in central east florida and I have a question I would like to ask about Fay.... how close do you think she will come to my area? I have recently moved to Indian Harbor Bch and wonder if I should take preparations to evacuate beachside I do have pets and children( newly single mom) so Im a little nervous on when I should start to worry
I hope it was ok to ask 
thank youlaurie
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 12:21 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
Quote:
I'm going to stick my neck out a bit and and say this is the COC (not an eye). It will be interesting to see what happens over open water. See attached
It isn't. In fact, you can pretty clearly see the LLC exposed right now on visible.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
I don't expect it to stay exposed that long as convection appears to be trying to wrap itself around the LLC from the blob of convection that Fay was generating over the Caribbean coast of Hispañola.
| B_from_NC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 12:35 PM |
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
Exactly... the center of Fay is currently exposed and well away from any mid/upper level convection. Amazingly it has kept its tight spin together thoughout the evening even after running into highly mountainous Hispanola. We had a very broad circulation center when it entered and a now tight one as it exited. We are also beginning to see that convection is starting to wrap around the CoC so re-intensification is starting already. We now wait to see when the jog north will start to occur as this will once again place the center over land. If she stays out below the Cuban coast (as the NHC is currently predicting for the next 36 hours), then makes a rapid northward turn this will limit land interaction and make those on both So.Fla coasts very uneasy.
B
| watchinout |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 12:37 PM |
|
wondering!!!
|
I was wondering what the rest of you think about the scenario of Fay going into the gulf and swinging back east making landfall around Cedar Key. I'm not experienced looking at the graphs and stuff but it seems as if the system over Florida now would keep it in the gulf and then pull it back east somewhere around Cedar Key or maybe a little south of there.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 12:46 PM |
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
I think the mountains on the peninsula are interfering with the convection wrapping around the center...but it will clear that area several hours from now. I dont see anything trying to fire near the center quite yet. If that happens we are looking at a strengthening storm
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 01:01 PM |
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba
|
Convection beginning to re-fire near the center just NW of the western tip of Haiti. NOGAPs out to t=36 has Fay refiring just south of central Cuba.
| VolusiaMike |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 01:11 PM |
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
Quote:
Hi all I am not exactly new to these boards Ive been monitoring them for a long time , you guys are addicting to watch and sometimes funny so anyway Im not a professional either and have never posted but I do live in central east florida and I have a question I would like to ask about Fay.... how close do you think she will come to my area? I have recently moved to Indian Harbor Bch and wonder if I should take preparations to evacuate beachside I do have pets and children( newly single mom) so Im a little nervous on when I should start to worry
laurie
Lauire,
Keep abreast of what the storm is doing and the information provided by the local Emergency Management Office. If, and right now it would be a big "if" they call for an evacuation they will provide at least 12 hours of daylight. If you have a place to go for safety you should be thinking about it and talking with whomever you would stay. If you do not, should they announce an evacuation shelter locations will be provided. Many of the shelters now make arrangements for pets, but you will more than likely need a crate.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 01:59 PM |
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
Recon is about 30 Miles from Center... 10-15 mins... So far est. visual surface winds of 35mph. and SFMR winds showing arouns 35-40mph. Think the center is a little farther north than forecasted... which will mean a shift in the forecast track again to the right some?
| laurie66 |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 02:14 PM |
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
thank you!
| Beaumont, TX |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 02:47 PM |
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
Be sure and have proof of vaccinations with you if you have to evacuate. Also, plenty of food and water. Battery powered fans are GREAT
for the car. You can even get a desk size one and since often traffic is bumper to bumper these really come in handy with pets and kids if
you have to turn the AC off. Many hotels take pets.
| conschscooter |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 03:02 PM |
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
Laurie
I live in the Florida Keys and I am putting all my outdoor stuff into the shed, keeping my gas tanks full and preparing for an evacuation order Sunday night or Monday morning. One reliable way to judge when to evacuate is when the schools are closed. My wife is a teacher and she leaves town as soon as the schools close so she gets a head start on crowded roads heading north. She stays in Ocala with a friend, (in2004 when we couldn't catch a break she went to Asheville NC to see her sister a LOT!). I work for the city of Key West and have to stay.
Thats just how we work it ,and I mention it as you are a newcomer to these annoyances.
After Georges and Wilma we don't trust intensity forecasts, as the NHC advises you not to. Make up your mind to leave and be safe and do it early, not late, especially as you have children and pets.
conchscooter.blogspot.com
| saluki |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 03:13 PM |
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
Just did some shopping in Pompano Beach and Fort Lauderdale. Bottled water and batteries are selling fast at Lowe's and Publix, and the gas stations nearest my home already have lengthy lines (probably a 20-minute wait). It's good to see that at least a few people here are taking Fay seriously and being proactive, because the lines will be longer and the supplies shorter tomorrow and early Monday.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 03:29 PM |
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
When I go shopping today at Wal Mart, I'll be getting some supplies such as water, Canned Goods ect.
What can I do about my Dog if they tell us we need to go? He is currently not up to date on his shots, and were short on money due to just moving into our apartment this week..
| KC |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 03:31 PM |
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
To StrmTrckrMiami - watch what you ask for... it's not a fun experience! That said (and this should probably be in the other forum about local conditions), I hope this helps:
1. Check the Lee Co. Emergency Mgt. website for info about mandatory evacuation areas. There is a link on the main page. When you live in Florida, this is important information! If you are out anywhere today, pick up a copy of a hurricane guide. If not, check the Nbc-2 or News-Press websites.
2. Renter's insurance - too late now. All insurance companies stop writing coverage as soon as there is a named storm.
3. Can't answer that for you. We don't have a definite path and I don't know anything about your windows or the area you live in. Check with the management company or neighbors who have lived there for a while.
4. Get that hurricane guide fast if you don't have the supply list - water, non-perishable foods, flashlights, batteries, weather radio, etc. Again, if you don't have a guide, check the nbc-2 website or that of any of the local stations.
5. No; you never have 100% certainty until it's over top of you. There are many uncertainties and it may take another 24 hours for the path to become more certain (though never 100%).
I suggest that you do your homework quickly. Good luck!
| FIREREALTY |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 03:33 PM |
Re: Renter's Insurance??
|
Remember, here in Fla,,once a storm gets within the insurance 'cone',,you cannot buy insurance for homes, or contents until the storm passes out of the 'cone'. Generally, that happens 2-3 days before a storm. Insurance agents will tell you when they are 'locked out' of selling policies.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 03:48 PM |
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
Lucky for me, we have a pretty decent standing apartment complex called Reflections that we live in, and according to them the structure holds up well. We live on the third floor
CHARLEY WAS NOT A DIRECT HIT ON FORT MYERS SO "ACCORDING TO THEM" DOESN'T MATTER.
1) In the case this storm gets bad, where can I find information on if we are in an evacuation route.
YOU SHOULD PICK UP A LOCAL HURRICANE PLANNER AT ANY OF THE SUPERMARKETS. ALSO PAY ATTENTION TO LOCAL TV & RADIO
2) i do not have renters insurance, but if I get some, can this cover any damage?
INSURANCE COMPANIES WON'T ISSUE IT SINCE THE STORM IS CLOSE.
3) Should we board up any windows even though were on the 3ed floor?
POSSIBLY. WINDS ARE STRONGER AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS (3RD FLOOR VS 1ST FLOOR) BUT THE APT COMPLEX MIGHT NOT ALLOW THIS.
4) What types of supplies should we stock up on?
YOU SHOULD PICK UP A LOCAL HURRICANE PLANNER AT ANY OF THE SUPERMARKETS.
5) Is the NHC 100% sure were going to get this storm?
NO. CURRENTLY THERE IS A 9% CHANCE FORT MYERS WILL GET HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BUT EVERYONE IN THE WIDE CONE SHOULD BE PREPARED. LOOK AT THE CONE, NOT THE LINE.
SEE THIS LINK http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIAPWSAT1+shtml/161435.shtml
I'd like to add that Lee County, Florida certainly has been getting strange weather this year.
ACTUALLY IT'S BEEN FAIRLY NORMAL.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 03:51 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
KC,
Thanks for the advice. I'm just extremely excited and nervous. What will you suggest doing with my internet and important stuff when the storm gets close since I don't have insurance..
As far as everything else, thank you..I guess I should be more prepared next time..because my fiancee JUST NOW said were going to get renters insurance and supplies..
Is this expected to be more than a Cat 1? Cat 1's arent that bad are they?
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 03:55 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
if you are nervous and unsure what to do then go to any supermarket and get the local hurricane planner.....now.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 04:03 PM |
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
In Palm Beach County things are very normal, no gas lines and home depot was empty. As far as being prepared, the best thing to do is not panic. I'm not downplaying the storm, but I'd wait until later tomorrow to decide on shutters. Believe it or not more people get hurt putting up shutters than they do by the storm.
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 04:05 PM |
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
StrmTrckrMiami,
My suggestion is to be calm and get to work now.
Being ahead of the rush is a victory in itself.
Even if it misses you and you have minimal issues, you're prepared for the next one.
Plan as if you're going to be native camping for a few days, because if power goes out, you will be.
As stated, get a hurricane planner and follow the checklist.
But go now, do not wait. Every hour that passes, the more the rush goes and the more likely stores will run out.
I expect the 5pm advisory will be the starting gun
Good luck and remain calm
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 04:16 PM |
| Attachment |
|
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
Well will have good data tonight in the models... HOPEFULLY... G-IV is east of South Florida... flying at 40kft
AF recon from Biloxi is about to the Cayman Islands... and AF Recon from St. Croix, just made another pass through FAY center and pressure down to 1006mb. Seems like i seeing a slight increase too in surface winds data, say around 50mph
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 04:17 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
In regards to "The wierd weather in Lee County"
My fiancee's dad has lived here for 70 years, (he is 75) and he said that according to what it usually is like, it has been very strange and wierd..just wanted to add that
| JMII |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 04:23 PM |
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
Seeing as we've got a few people that have never been in a tropical system I'll offer some advice in the Ask/Tell section:
http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/showflat....;gonew=1#UNREAD
| FIREREALTY |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 04:28 PM |
|
Re: Here we go......
|
Fla Gov has issued State of Emergency,,3 County EOC's over here will go to partial staffing tomorrow at 5,,full staffing at 7am mon....
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 04:34 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Here we go......
|
What does this mean?
(Crap..I may be activated for this storm..Gah I don't want to be out in the middle of it, putting up sand bags)
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 04:42 PM |
|
Re: Here we go......
|
Quote:
What does this mean?
(Crap..I may be activated for this storm..Gah I don't want to be out in the middle of it, putting up sand bags)
Calm down.
This does not affect you, it has to do with state emergency operations and planning.
You have a good amount of time before any evac will be issued if necessary
Calm down
(unless you mean your unit...but still, calm down)
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 04:44 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Here we go......
|
Do you think they'll issue Evac for a Cat 1?
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 04:46 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Here we go......
|
Quote:
What does this mean?
(Crap..I may be activated for this storm..Gah I don't want to be out in the middle of it, putting up sand bags)
I am not sure what this may mean for you in the service, but you can read the entire executive order at this site:
Governor Crist Executive order about TS Fay
It seems to be a bunch of legaliese to me, but you may be able to figure something out from it. Seems he is just releasing various government agencies to do their jobs without delay as the situation dictates......stay calm, but prepare just in case!!
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 04:51 PM |
|
Re: Here we go......
|
Quote:
Do you think they'll issue Evac for a Cat 1?
Evac zones and route for your area
web.naplesnews.com/static/pdf/npdn/severeweather/HURR-evacuation.pdf
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 04:53 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Here we go......
|
Quote:Quote:
What does this mean?
(Crap..I may be activated for this storm..Gah I don't want to be out in the middle of it, putting up sand bags)
I doubt they will evacuate for a Cat 1. What the Christ did allows state, county and local agencies to co-ordinate activities. I've been through a few storms in Florida, its standard procedure.
| jayb |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 04:54 PM |
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
I'm very new to monitoring hurricanes, but I have been watching this site and others since Kartina. I've noticed the official forecast track for Fay hasn't been following the "average/center" of the models, which would make landfall in the panhandle. Can anyone explain way they are forecasting a more East track with landfall near Ft. Meyers than just looking at the models would indicate?
| BillD |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 05:19 PM |
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
This really belongs over in the Ask/Tell forum... To better understand how they come up with the track, always read the discussion, not just the advisory. They often explain why they are deviating from model consensus. A lot of the time it is just because they know the models flip back and forth, so they apply averaging over time and they know some models do better than others in certain situations, and they compare previous model runs with what the storm actually does. Each model has its own personality. Some are better at some things than others. Many of them are fed (at least partially) from output of other models. The more detailed recon data input into the models, the more accurate they are. Models are also tweaked from time to time (some more often than others) or the data input into them is massaged differently. There are also times when there is something wrong with the data and the models don't get initialized properly, which results in inaccurate results, which in turn might get fed into other models.
Bill
| flanewscameraman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 05:34 PM |
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
My best advice would be to not lock in on the model line directly. There is still much uncertainty on the eventual track and intensity of Fay. What I would advise is to get your supplies now. When a watch or warning is issued, Floridians will go crazy, and the gas stations and stores will be a mob scene. The reality with tropical systems is even if your not under the direct landfall location, the weather can get real nasty. I am a news cameraman and was sixty miles inland from Dolly when it came ashore in Texas, and we had sustained winds of at least 40 miles an hour, with gusts way above that amount. To sum it up, dont panic, but prepare. It adds peace of mind to you, and at the end of it, you will use what you buy now anyway
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 05:43 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
Recon just passed through again... and 1005mb was found
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the NE (51°) of center fix
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 57kts (~ 65.6mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:02:00Z
|
MikeC
|
| (Admin) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 05:49 PM |
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
Since a few asked, here's a better description of the cone (thanks to Skeetobite):
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 06:31 PM |
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
The state of emergency that was declared in Florida doesn't have anything to do with evacuations. As stated before, it is more about legal stuff. It basically sets up federal emergency assistance and finacial aid in the case that it is needed.
On another note, I was just talking to a few of my coworkers and it is amazing how lax of an attitude people have about these things.
My motto: It's better to be safe than sorry
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 06:49 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
I just saw Max Mayfield on TV out of Miami, he said what the line represents is that there is a 2/3 chance of the storm following that track. He also said pay more attention to the cone. He also said some models are going further west and others are going east.
It's true this probably won't be a big storm for most of us, but we should all be ready.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 06:49 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
watching the sat loops this afternoon... FAY appears to me now getting its convection back over the center. I think... IMHO i think the mid level center got displaced to the south of the low level center.. but convections is coming back strong this evening... Pressure still at 1005mb
| Lamar-Plant City |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 07:16 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
Quote:
It's true this probably won't be a big storm for most of us, but we should all be ready.
Small storms are excellent opportunities to get prepared and as a chance to evaluate your various hurricane plans. Get out all your 'gear' and check it over. Throw out flashlights where batteries have leaked, test your generator and chain saw, double check the hardware for putting up wood/shutters. This can be great preparation in case (God forbid) we should have a BIG one before this season is out....
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 07:20 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
I remember Wilma, I put my shutters up and was ready. Everyone thought I was nuts. When the storm came we weren't the ones hiding in a closet.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 07:21 PM |
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
I would expect with the new convection (if it persists) there will start to be pressure falls. I'm not, however, seeing a northward component to the center...still moving due west, maybe even a tad south of due west
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 07:28 PM |
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
Despite what many have said on other boards regarding Fay's appearance she has been improving greatly all afternoon IMHO. Last visible images showed a rejuvenating system that looks to stay south of the Cuban coast for the next 24 hours. This is a bit disturbing, since the pressures have been falling steadily now and AF investigations are showing increased winds at the surface (approximately 57 knots in the SE Quad). Her appearance is great considering where she has been during the past 24 hours (Haiti) and she has a symetrical circulation that gives one the feeling that all she need do is stretch out in the waters south of Cuba and she'll undergoe intensification prior to turning north. Again I believe the NHC maybe a bit conservative with the intensity forecast, but that is reasonable since there is a chance of land interaction. If she crosses central Cuba heading north, the land interaction will be short-lived and may be problematic for us in Florida. here's hoping she stalls over land in Cuba or just gets sheared to death. Cheers!
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 07:34 PM |
|
|
Could Fay turn into a Charley?
|
Hi,
Looking at the track forecast for Fay I start wondering whether Fay could turn into a Charley-like hurricane. It does not look like Fay could pack the same power in terms of intensity, but could she not end up have a similar type of track and spew as many tornadoes as Charley did?
We live in New Smyrna Beach, but on the mainland and for us Charley's worst effect were the numerous tornadoes which Charley spawned. In our subdivision many homes ended up loosing their roofs to these tornadoes.
How much of a threat do you think Fay represents to East Central Florida and Volusia county? What is the worst-case we should be ready for?
Thanks,
VS
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 07:36 PM |
|
Re: Center reforming?
|
Satellite appearances can certainly be deceiving at times. The 57kt surface winds, if that is a legitimate surface wind reading, would seem to indicate rapid intensification, and 65mph intensity in the intermediate advisory... but was it just a short gust? If Fay crosses central (or even - horrors - western Cuba), I would not expect any weakening at all, assuming the storm is headed north at the time. Overall, I too think the intensity forecast is very conservative... but best not to panic Floridians prematurely.
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 07:40 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Tropical Storm Fay aims for Cuba
|
is it me or does the convection envenlope sem to be expanding north to the mid level low on the eastern tip of cuba now. And the convetion that was south of hati waining looking more ragged?
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 07:43 PM |
|
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?
|
Quote:
Hi,
Looking at the track forecast for Fay I start wondering whether Fay could turn into a Charley-like hurricane. It does not look like Fay could pack the same power in terms of intensity, but could she not end up have a similar type of track and spew as many tornadoes as Charley did?
We live in New Smyrna Beach, but on the mainland and for us Charley's worst effect were the numerous tornadoes which Charley spawned. In our subdivision many homes ended up loosing their roofs to these tornadoes.
How much of a threat do you think Fay represents to East Central Florida and Volusia county? What is the worst-case we should be ready for?
Thanks,
VS
Anything is possible, including a Charley-like (+/-) scenario
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 07:50 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?
|
Quote:
[
Anything is possible, including a Charley-like (+/-) scenario
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best
You really think that Fay has the potential of making landfall as a Cat.4?!
From what I read in this forum a strong Cat.1 is the max. that we should be expecting, no?
| mikethewreck |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 07:51 PM |
|
|
Re: Questions
|
I don't say much but I listen to this site a lot. Here are some thoughts I'd like to share:
- Folks on this site are astute sources of insight but they are not God. No one knows exactly what a storm will do.
- The Hurricane center has a lot of smart people working there and they are very rarely wrong. If you listen to what they say in terms of preparedness you won't go wrong.
- Even if we know exactly where the storm will go the exact effects on any given location can vary. Tornadoes get spawned. Microbursts happen. Many folks have said, "prepare for the worst". Just do it.
When a storm happens, my advice to newbies is "shut up and listen". I'll follow my own advice. Thanks for listening.
| Steve H1 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 07:53 PM |
|
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?
|
I didn't mean to get anyone upset, I just am observing what I see, and we have a couple of days to see ultimately where Fay will go. Yes the 57 knot reading could very well have been a squall or t'storm, but she is looking like she is gaining her health. We should get prepared and have plans ready to enact should she head our way Monday night/Tuesday/Tuesday night, depending where in the state you are.
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 07:54 PM |
|
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?
|
I'll agree it would be highly unlikely, but this is why you prepare and stay informed.
At this point, this far out, consider any possibility until they narrow down the path and intensity
Prepare for the worst, hope for the best
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 08:09 PM |
|
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?
|
There are some BIG differences between Fay/Charlie...
Fay is a much larger (size not strength).
Charlie crossed Cuba as a cat3 weakened upon crossing then ramped up quickly because it was a very SMALL storm (size again not strength). I doubt Fay will be even a Cat1 crossing Cuba (all depends on time over water and organization). Larger storms take longer to ramp up and to organize. Fays got a long way to go
| pcbjr |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 08:28 PM |
|
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?
|
Been out of the loop for a few hours (work) and have to head back shortly.
Sorry - but can someone give a quick update on track? Skimming quickly I get the impression it may be more west, but in haste may be reading wrong.
Is Tampa still a target (I live 80 miles NE).
Thanks!
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 08:31 PM |
|
|
|
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?
|
Quote:
There are some BIG differences between Fay/Charlie...
Fay is a much larger (size not strength).
Charlie crossed Cuba as a cat3 weakened upon crossing then ramped up quickly because it was a very SMALL storm (size again not strength). I doubt Fay will be even a Cat1 crossing Cuba (all depends on time over water and organization). Larger storms take longer to ramp up and to organize. Fays got a long way to go
True, but then Charley did have a fast forward motion whereas it appears form the track prediction that Fay will be moving forward much more slowly. Could that not give her more time to suck up energy and rotate faster (maybe become more compact, smaller in size?)?
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 08:34 PM |
|
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?
|
Quote:
True, but then Charley did have a fast forward motion whereas it appears form the track prediction that Fay will be moving forward much more slowly. Could that not give her more time to suck up energy and rotate faster (maybe become more compact, smaller in size?)?
A lot depends upon shear at that point. The 5pm discussion indicates that shear may be higher in 72 hours where Fay is forecast to be, which would preclude strengthening.
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 08:36 PM |
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?
|
Looks like satellite depicts improving structure. 1005 pressure would indicate at least a slow pressure drop; I will be quite wary should recon come in during the night with 2-4 mb falls, as I would interpret this as a possibility that a "jump" or initiated northward motion might soon ensue thereafter. Would appreciate if those here could contribute any incoming recon data that may be coming in.
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 08:40 PM |
|
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?
|
the 8pm intermediate said that motion had slowed, that's typically an indicator of directional change, correct?
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 08:47 PM |
|
|
Re: Questions
|
Quote:
I don't say much but I listen to this site a lot. Here are some thoughts I'd like to share:
- Folks on this site are astute sources of insight but they are not God. No one knows exactly what a storm will do.
- The Hurricane center has a lot of smart people working there and they are very rarely wrong. If you listen to what they say in terms of preparedness you won't go wrong.
<snip>
I would be cautious about putting too much faith in the NHC's prediction and watch the entire cone. I left my boarded up, stocked, prepared home for Charley, and headed inland since I was on that direct hit line and we were ordered to evacuate. We evacuated to Arcadia and ended up enduring Charley at full Cat. 4 strength in an unboarded, unprepared home. We stepped out to a world that cannot be described once that storm was over. It took a week before roads were cleared enough to allow us to return home. In the meantime we were without provisions. We returned home to find not a single palm frond disturbed and life going on as usual.
So, I'm understandably skeptical of the "experts".
If the NHC says it's going to hit Tampa, it might just hit Ft. Myers instead. So wherever you plan to be, make plans early and prepare the location of where you plan to spend your time regardless of the predictions.
There IS a "cone" for a reason...and where you were located was well within that cone of error. The NHC has done a fabulous job in the last few years and you should be grateful that you had somewhere to come home to..instead of complaining about the place you went to that got so hard hit...weather is a science, not an absolute. I surely hope we don't have to have a repeat conversation about Fay..just bear in mind, my friend, that you, as well as I, are well within that "cone".
| StormHound |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 08:47 PM |
|
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?
|
Quote:
You really think that Fay has the potential of making landfall as a Cat.4?!
From what I read in this forum a strong Cat.1 is the max. that we should be expecting, no?
Potential? Absolutely.
Likely? Not likely.
Is a strong Cat 1 the MAX that we should be expecting? Certainly not. Cat 1 is what is currently forecast. Generally speaking, three days out the forecast can be off +/- two categories or so. In the last few years, we've seen the NHC become much better at track predictions, but intensity predictions are much more difficult.
Fay still could very well fizzle and be little more than a tropical storm as she passes over Florida, or she could possibly strengthen to a fairly strong hurricane. In all likelihood, you will not be affected much by Fay. But as someone who lived at the 2004 storm nexus, I can say that it's much better to be prepared and not get much than to be unprepared and have to deal with the aftermath.
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 08:54 PM |
|
|
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?
|
Sitting here under the gun by one global model (Nogaps, that basically brings the storm up my back yard, albiet from the east so on the "cleaner" side) and looking closely at the models and environment, plus the storm itself, here's my take....
We don't know (yet) where this thing is going with any degree of confidence. The guidance envelope on the global models is wide and in fact has gotten wider in the last 24 hours. This indicates that there is an issue with initialization and upper-air environment that has not yet found resolution. As the storm gets more organized this will probably tighten up significantly, and that's good.
The bad news is that a "strafing run" up the west coast of Florida is probably the worst case for a number of people, including especially Tampa, which has a bay that is open to "cramming" of surge from a storm that takes this path. It hasn't happened in a very long time but that doesn't mean it can't.
Best case is that we get a bit more of a poleward movement and Cuba inhibits the storm materially, and it doesn't have enough time to get its act together before impacting land. This makes everyone "happier" in terms of total impact, but it will still ruin some people's days. The worst case is that it skims Cuba and gets plenty of organization before crossing on the western half, where the terrain won't tear it up as much and the time over land will do little as it will be short. That's bad.
I'm not getting alarmed yet but I am getting ready and inventorying what I need in the event it looks to be headed on a NoGaps-ish path. I think we'll have a much better idea tomorrow afternoon or evening, when there should be more data and a couple more model runs.
I'm also intrigued by the GOES-East WV runs and it confirms, more-or-less, what the sticking points are in the NHC discussion as well as here. The bad news is that I don't see as much movement and "spit out" potential on the low out west, which would tend to auger for a more westward component to the movement. The IR shows that outflow is improving, so the real inhibitor here is land interaction, not environment.
The difficulty here is that small differences in the jet and that low, along with what happens in terms of shear, have a very large impact not only on exactly where the storm comes in but also on how strong it is. There is plenty of oceanic heat content to support a 'Cane, so that's not a factor - its the environment and particularly how much interaction with land (Cuba) we get that will tell the tale on this one.
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 09:00 PM |
|
Re: Could Fay turn into a Charley?
|
Remembering what Clark posted much earlier today as to what to watch in the synoptic pattern north and west of Fay I note a couple of things. First, in actual experience I was quite surprised to receive the rain we experienced in W.Central Florida today which was generally moving down the state and west to east. Yesterday,the whole scenario of the weakening frontal trough across N. Florida was pushed to the north, and that was expected to continue. To note the change so quickly today was really quite surprising.
The WV loop suggests that the high which is moving along over Fay may have spent its westward energy and the weakness is indeed over S. Florida. This morning I thought it was pushing up the peninsula just north of the lake but this evening it is again south of the lake. The line of difluence between the troughiness to the north and the high to the SE seems to be central Florida.
My point is that Fay will not cross that line and will turn about 100 miles or so east of that line IF I am correct, then that would mean a South Florida solution and not a west coast solution. This scenario seems to be fuled by a vigouous trough over the Great Lakes that pushed south and pushed the frontal trough further south too. This scenario will have to play out tomorrow as well, else a more westward solution would be in play.
I don't see any progress eastward in the ULL over Colorado and don't see that as a player.
We will know more on this in the morning. Fay continues to reorganize and will be stronger tomorrow.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 09:06 PM |
|
Just a couple of quick notes...
|
Just a couple of quick notes to keep in mind...
1) Let's be careful with some of the Charley comparisons. Fay is not as small of a storm as was Charley, nor is it or will it be nearly as strong of a storm as was Charley when it hit Cuba. Charley was a major hurricane when it hit Cuba and spent a relatively short time over land; Fay will not be a major hurricane when it hits Cuba and will likely spend longer over or near land.
Is a strong storm still in the realm of possibility for Fay? Yes. But, the only true comparison to Charley right now is the potential angle of approach to the western Florida coastline. Be prepared for something one category higher than anticipated, but the comparisons to a fast-moving, deepening category 4 hurricane are a bit overdone right now.
2) Bev makes some good comments about focusing on the cone rather than the line down the middle of the cone. This rings especially true for any storm that approaches the coastline close to parallel to the coast. If you are ordered to evacuate and cannot or do not want to go to a shelter near your home, you are best going somewhere to the north and west that is outside of the cone entirely. Two days out, if you live in south Florida, this could be the Big Bend; if you live in Tampa, it could be toward Tallahassee or slightly further west. Better safe than sorry, as small track changes can lead to significant impacts in areas off of that solid line.
| Mike N |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 10:14 PM |
|
|
Re: Just a couple of quick notes...
|
Clark,
So it's almost been 24 hrs since your post earlier today. What observations have taken place since...what are the upper air readings so far. You alluded that these observations every 12 hrs would been key in determining where Fay would go. What have they been and which way are they leaning? I realize this may take into tonight and early tomorrow to become clearer. I just thought I would ask if we were still on track for a west FL solution or if we have deviated from that significantly one way or the other(east or west)? Thanks for your input and dedication as I have followed this site for years but rarely post.
Mike
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 16 2008 10:18 PM |
|
|
Re: Just a couple of quick notes...
|
I'm not happy with the models. I can see the moisture along the Gulf but I can also see the dry air to the north of the storm slowly evaporating on the WV loop.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
The door way north is very open yet the models have pulled left. They again how can you trust a model that is as fickle as the GFDL is (to name one) that switches back and forth like windshield wipers? And, I believe the models are reading Fay as a weak storm which she is but will she stay weak? For some reason I think the more interaction she has with land the more she tends to flare up and tonight there is strong convection forming near her center.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
The ULL to her west is hard to read and looks like it is filling in. And, the moisture in the Gulf is strong but pushing east as it is streaming from Ms to Alabama to northern Florida fast.
I keep feeling something is off here and we are overestimating something or overestimating something.
And... as said she is not Charley nor is she Cleo. Both were stronger storms with more centers that were easier to follow.
Storms do quirky things when they come off of Cuba. That FACT cannot be emphasized enough.
| Clark |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 12:48 AM |
|
Re: Just a couple of quick notes...
|
Quote:
Clark,
So it's almost been 24 hrs since your post earlier today. What observations have taken place since...what are the upper air readings so far. You alluded that these observations every 12 hrs would been key in determining where Fay would go. What have they been and which way are they leaning? I realize this may take into tonight and early tomorrow to become clearer. I just thought I would ask if we were still on track for a west FL solution or if we have deviated from that significantly one way or the other(east or west)? Thanks for your input and dedication as I have followed this site for years but rarely post.
Mike
Mike,
The big thing is that the 00z models have a lot of dropsonde observations from a high-altitude NOAA flight ahead of the storm. While it's still early in the current model cycle with just the GFS and NAM in, we didn't seen any change in the GFS and now the NAM is in the same area as the GFS (whereas before it had been further east). These observations give us a better idea for the current strength of the subtropical ridge, therefore giving the models a better idea of its current strength.
As many studies have shown, small changes in model initial conditions can lead to large changes in short- and medium-term forecasts. Yet, despite having new data, we've not seen those changes. What does that suggest? It suggests that the models had a decent idea on the initial setup of the ridge all along. Comparing the 18 hour forecast from yesterday's 06z GFS to the current 500 mb pattern, the model had a very good forecast with the cutoff upper low, ridge extent and strength, and east coast trough extent and strength.
Simply put, everything is on track thus far for a landfall somewhere in the midst of the track guidance. Barring any drastic shifts with the rest of the 00z model guidance, we're starting to narrow down to a FL southwest coast to FL central panhandle landfall. The further ahead we move in time, the more likely internal core processes (mostly intensity) and angle of approach to the coastline will be the main factors that determine where Fay will be heading. Hope this helps.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 01:17 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Just a couple of quick notes...
|
Nice blow up of convection over the center of Fay in the last 2 hrs... Just in time for AF Recon which is descending down through 10kt heading in to the center. They came from St. Croix. and i would think they'll do like the last plane from St. Croix... do there mission in between the islands then head onto Biloxi, MS. They were at : 18.78N 75.77W Time: 05:07:30Z. So far only mid 40's mph Flight level winds at 5kft.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 01:23 AM |
|
Re: Just a couple of quick notes...
|
That was a very good post Clark. I couldn't of said it better. I notice the 0z nogaps is left again..showing this staying west alittle further (but its speed is also slightly faster than the GFS) in movement. CMC shows more of a turn NNE. I haven't seen the GFDL yet. Should be in soon!
| vmzamorano |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 01:40 AM |
|
Re: Just a couple of quick notes...
|
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/
This is a beta site, but quite interesting, specially for those who know what they are reading ( i can only figure out some of the information)...but that can take you to also a beta site in Google earth, where you can see the recon plane and info as it sends it back...it's amazing...
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 01:40 AM |
Re: Just a couple of quick notes...
|
Just read Clark's post as I write this myself. With exception to minor ( or faster ) internal core fluctuations, it would certainly appear that Fay will pass over or near Key West, and then northward from there. Granted, 30-50 miles in the grand scheme of things means little with regards to overall accuracy of forecast. Yet, such a deviation would mean lessor or greater impacts for those on Florida's East coast. Here again, what remains quite uncertain is whether Fay is a tropical storm, a minimal hurricane , or stronger at the point of closest pass to the Keys and S. Florida. Interesting, though Clark made reference to the GFS, the one subtle difference I took from the 0Z data, is that Fay is practically stalled out for approx. 36 hrs. when just over or north of Key West. Could this be indicative of the Central Plains ridge finally building in, yet now temporarily halting the northward motion. If such a COL occured, might we have a strengthening hurricane on our hands? Will be interesting to see if the other models trend towards such a "near stall" of foward motion. Given the rich heat content of the S.W. Gulf waters, this would further add to the impact on much of the southern half of Florida, but most notibly wherever the eventual landfall might occur.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 02:08 AM |
|
Re: Just a couple of quick notes...
|
I didnt see any model that showed Fay stalled out up to 36hrs near Key West...infact it will probably speed up some once it gets north of Key west...but then again we dont know forsure about where it will be until it turns NNW.
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 02:25 AM |
|
Re: Just a couple of quick notes...
|
I stand corrected, however at 42hr. from 0Z GFS run, Fay appears to be basically over Key West ( or close ), and at 66 hr ( which in fact is 24 hr, not 36hr. ), would have only moved to a point off of what appears to be approx. west of Ft. Meyers. In fact not stalled, but moving quite slowly. This slower forward motion appears to me to occur at approx. 36hrs. while Fay, already emerged into the Florida Straights, and just south of Key West.
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 02:49 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Just a couple of quick notes...
|
Quote:
I didnt see any model that showed Fay stalled out up to 36hrs near Key West...infact it will probably speed up some once it gets north of Key west...but then again we dont know forsure about where it will be until it turns NNW.
Yeah, I don't see the 36 hr stall either, and according to the 2am advisory, she has started her turn...
One thing that I have noticed is the weather we are having in Tampa. It is incredibly calm and very, very humid. The winds have been out of the South for most of the day, and then at around 6pm, they shifted to the North. On another note, the schools here in Tampa are scheduled to open on Monday. The school board will be meeting early this morning to decide whether or not to push the date back, and will make their decision by 11am.
Tampa International Airport and the airline that I work for have also gone into alert mode and will more than likely be going into a full storm activation mode by tonight which means that, if the current forecast is still the same by tonight at 11pm, the airlines will more than likely start canceling flights. So if you have any travel plans into or out of Florida in the next few days, I would definitely be watching this. This is meant to be informative and not meant to make anybody nervous. Just pretty please don't be one of those people (and we all know them) that just say "ahhh it's not gonna hit us. We've NEVER been hit by one. I'm not worried."
Like I said before, it's better to be safe than sorry.
|
danielw
|
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 04:36 AM |
|
|
Morning AFD roundup
|
These are excerpts from the various NWS Offices in FL. Not all of the Offices have updated their Forecasts.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
339 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
...TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF TUESDAY EFFECTING SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA...
SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY) A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN FL THIS MORNING WITH TS FAY IN PLACE SSE OF CUBA. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN US WITH SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TODAY AND WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF. THE SURFACE FEATURES WILL LIFT NORTH AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MONDAY AS FAY MOVES OVER CUBA AND INTO THE GULF WATERS.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON FAY. THE CURRENT NHC FORECAST HAS FAY LIFTING NORTH AND BEGINNING TO IMPACT SW FL MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING NORTH AND INCREASING TO A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE IMPACTING WEST CENTRAL FL TUESDAY. RESIDENTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FOR UPDATES AND FUTURE HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS ASSOCIATED WITH FAY...INCLUDING POSSIBLE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR THIS STORM.
LONG TERM (TUE NIGHT-SAT) OFFICIAL NHC TRACK OF TS FAY CONTINUES TO IMPACT ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SW FL. BY TUE NIGHT TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE CONDITION POSSIBLE AREAWIDE AS THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE N THRU THE BAY AREA AND NATURE COAST TUE NT INTO WED AND RESIDENTS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREPARE FOR THIS SIGNIFICANT WX EVENT. NUMEROUS HAZARDOUS WEATHER IMPACTS FROM FAY ARE EXPECTED AND ADDITIONAL NWS TBW PRODUCTS WILL HIGHLIGHT THESE. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA INTO WED...AS WELL AS RIVER FLOODING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ONCE FAY FINALLY MOVES N OF THE AREA LATER WED WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP KEEPING DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY. LATER IN THE WEEK...WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS AND HOLDS IN THE REGION FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
409 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
BEYOND TODAY... FAY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THEN APPROACH THE CWA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AN INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE LEAVING SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING 4 TO 6 INCHES RAINFALL AS THE STORM MOVES BY / ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL WATERS. ANOTHER PROBLEM WITH S FL FORECAST TO BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD IS AN INCREASE IN THE HELICITIES. GUIDANCE RANGES HELICITY FROM AROUND 150 TO 500 WHICH WILL MOST DEFIANTLY BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE ISOLD TORNADOES / MINI SUPER CELLS UNTIL THE CENTER MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING TO MID DAY. THE STORM IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TREK NORTH OF THE AREA AND INTO N FL WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER WITH HIGH PWATS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA AND A BIT OF CONVERGENCE LEFT OVER THE AREA NUMEROUS SHRA AND A FEW TSRA CAN STILL BE EXPECTED. THURSDAY ON... THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH A RETURN TO CLIMO POPS AND TEMPS.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 356 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY) LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS TROPICAL STORM FAY...OR WILL IT BE HURRICANE FAY...TO BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE 34-KNOT WIND CONE SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY 00Z TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE TRACK FORECAST NOW JUST EAST OF OUR CWA...THIS SHOULD LESSEN THE IMPACT ON OUR LOCAL CWA...BUT WILL KEEP THE POPS ABOVE CLIMO AND TEMPS NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW CLIMO THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AS FAY PROGRESSES NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY... TROUGH/SHORT WAVE COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WILL BE LOCATED IN THE OK/TX REGION ACCORDING TO GFS. THIS SYSTEM IS A MAJOR PLAYER ON WHAT FAY WILL GO. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS TROUGH GETS CAUGHT UP WITH ANOTHER APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND RAPIDLY FILLS AND PUSHES NORTHEAST. THE REMNANTS OF FAY REMNANT DOES MUCH THE SAME. THE 00Z EURO HAS ANOTHER SOLUTION. FAY TURNS QUICKLY NORTHEAST AND GETS STUCK FOR A FEW DAYS OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH BLOCKS ITS PATH. IN OUR AREA...THE GFS SOLUTION HAS AN UPPER RIDGE SETTLING IN BEHIND FAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY...ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM APPROACHES SOUTH FLORIDA AS A MID LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHICH MAKES ANOTHER HEAVY WORK SCHEDULE IN OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. THE GFS AND EURO ARE SIMILAR...BUT THE GFS SHOWS MORE A VIGOUROUS TROPICAL SYSTEM AS WELL AS MID LATITUDE SYSTEM.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 428 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008
MON-WED...LATEST OFFICIAL TRACK OF FAY IS OVER CUBA MON MORNING THEN APPROACHING DRY TORTUGAS MON EVENING AND NEARING THE FL WEST COAST BY TUE PM. WHILE TOO MUCH ATTENTION SHOULD NOT BE GIVEN TO THE EXACT FORECAST PATH THIS FAR OUT...APPEARS THAT RAIN BAND EFFECTS FROM FAY WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PART OF EC FL ON MONDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME TS FORCE WINDS REACHING SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY EARLY TUESDAY. BASED ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF FAY...EC FL EXPECTED TO FEEL THE WORST EFFECTS TUE/TUE NIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY WED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE NMRS/LKLY POPS AND POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WITH THE PASSAGE OF FAY. THE FORECAST TRACK FOR FAY WILL PUT EC FL IN A VULNERABLE LOCATION FOR TC TORNADOES AND HEAVY RAINS FROM PERSISTENT RAIN BANDS. AT A MINIMUM...PERSONS IN EC FL SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS FROM FAY AND TAKE PROTECTIVE MEASURES AROUND THE HOME ACCORDINGLY. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ALSO URGED TO KEEP INFORMED OF THE LATEST TRACK AND EXPECTED IMPACTS FROM FAY SINCE FORECAST REVISIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AS FAY EVOLVES AND APPROACHES FL.
http://weather.noaa.gov
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 05:13 AM |
|
Re: Update 5:00AM 17 August 2008
|
...WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA...
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE
DRY TORTUGAS AND FLORIDA BAY...AND ALONG THE FLORIDA MAINLAND FROM
CARD SOUND BRIDGE WESTWARD TO BONITA BEACH. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
I'll get this on the MainPage ASAP...
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 08:41 AM |
|
|
Re: Update 5:00AM 17 August 2008
|
Here is Orlando, there does not seem to be much concern with no big runs on water, food, gasoline, or plywood. We are all expecting a big rain maker but not much wind. We shall see. I think I will buy 1 gallon of water per person just to be on the safe side.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 08:53 AM |
|
|
East Coast
|
I live in Indialantic Beach.
I was curious as to what I should expect?
I know Melbourne is about 170 miles from Sarsota.
Currently the TSFW extend out about a 105 miles, I expect that to grow as Fay grows into a Hurricane.
So what do you think? Rain and 40 MPH winds?
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 09:01 AM |
|
|
|
Re: East Coast
|
Things are very calm in Delray Beach, no gas lines, nothing. If the storm stays on track (ha), it won't be bad here.
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 09:18 AM |
|
|
|
Re: Update 5:00AM 17 August 2008
|
Model consensus seems to be wavering last couple runs. Tropical suite is now breaking hard left at the end of their run nogaps has been further west for last three runs. waiting on UKMET. Slower movement from Fay is starting to ingest stronger ridge data, into the models, from recon NE of the bahamas. This is really going to be a wait and see now -- nothing is certain.