MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 08:55 AM |
Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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7PM Update 17 August 2008
Fay is continuing to move mostly west and slightly north, remaining south of Cuba, the forecast track has shifted a bit west, but remains at a very odd angle, so unfortunately any position along Florida may be impacted. The watch area needs to begin preparations, and the rest of Florida needs to watch closely.
The relatively weak and broad nature of the system is causing difficulty trying to keep track of the center of circulation, this system is a huge headache for the National Hurricane Center trying to forecast it.
Until the system crosses Cuba, things will be difficult to predict. The National Hurricane Center compares the difficulty of forecasting the track very similar to what happened with Charley (as far as the landfall forecast, NOT the result or intensity) And this means anywhere along the western coast of Florida, up into the Panhandle need to be watching this one closely. Also the system's convection is mostly on the eastern side, so as it nears Florida likely the chances of weak tornadoes will go up along some of the outer rain bands of the system.
11 AM EDT Update:
The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward to Anna Maria Island. A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Florida Keys from south of Ocean Reef to Key West, including the Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay, and along the Mainland from Card Sound Bridge westward to Anna Maria Island. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Cuba frfom the Provinces of La Habana and Ciudad de la Habana eastward the Sancti Spiritus.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Florida Keys from Craig Key westward to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay.
Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Cuba from the Provinces of La Habana and Ciudad de la Habana eastward to Guantanamo, and the Cayman Islands of Cayman Brac and Little Cayman.
Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Southeast Coast of Florida from Ocean Reef northward to Jupiter Inlet, and for Lake Okeechobee. Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
At 11 AM the Tropical Storm Watch is discontinued for the Central Bahamas.
Previous Update
A Hurricane watch is up for the Keys this morning, actually from card sound bridge, south through all the Keys up to Bonita Beach. Tropical Storm Watches are up north of there along the east coast to Jupiter Inlet. Lake Okeechobee also is under a Tropical Storm Watch.
This means hurricane or tropical storm (Respectively) conditions are possible there in 36 hours.
The latest forecast track focuses in on the Western Coast of Florida, those along the entire Florida peninsula should keep a very close eye on Fay over the next few days, especially those on the West Coast. Pay attention to local media, officials, and more when it comes to your particular area. Read the official statements from the National Hurricane Center (Available at the top of the page here, or at the Hurricane Center's web site) as well as the local hurricane statements put out by the national weather service offices in Florida.
Fay strengthened a hair overnight, but the core remained at or just off the shore of Southern Cuba this morning, indications from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft that sampled the air around the storm indicate that the storm appears to be making the turn more northerly soon, however the Cuban government does not allow US government planes to fly over their territory, so no center vortex messages we able to be taken.
Fay this morning looks still rather disorganized on satellite this morning, which is good news, since this will likely keep it from strengthening much while near Cuba.
The forecast track remains similar to the earlier ones, with the largest issue being how much time Fay will get after it crosses Cuba to strengthen along with how weak will Cuba make it. The current thinking is that it will have time to become a category 1 hurricane before landfall. To add to difficulties some of the models are beginning to spread, making the exact track very difficult. The entire west coast of Florida needs to pay attention.
We have a few discussion threads going on Fay, if you would like to discuss Fay's possible impact on Florida, check out here, if you want to let people what you think, or have a gut feeling, or want to shoot the breeze on Fay do that in the Fay forecast Lounge Want to let us know about conditions in your area, any closings, notices, or evacuations, let pass it along in this area. This is done to attempt more order during the flood of information (both good and bad) that will come over the next few days.
Some of the outer bands are now visible on Key West long range radar, {{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL Radar}}
General Fay Related Links:
Florida Emergency Management / floridadisaster.org
Cuban Radar Flhurricane Recording of Cuban Mosaic radar
Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
{{radarlink|tbw|Tampa Bay, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Melbourne FL Radar}}
Emergency Management/County info
Florida County Websites (South to North along the West Coast):
Monroe County Emergency Management (Florida Keys)
Collier County, FL (Naples)
Lee County, FL (Ft. Myers)
Charlotte County, FL
Sarasota County, FL
Manatee County, FL
Pinellas County, FL (St. Petersburg)
Hillsborough County, FL (Tampa)
Paso County, FL
Hernando County, FL
Citrus County, FL
Levy County, FL
Other Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee
"Spaghetti" style model plots from Colorado State / Jonathan Vigh
Local Newspapers/Websites
Naples News
St. Petersburg Times (Tampabay.com)
Florida Today (Brevard County)
Orlando Sentinel
Tampa Tribune
Palm Beach Post
Miami Herald
Daytona Beach News Journal
News Press (Southwest Florida)
Storm Animation of what a storm passing just north of Tampa would do to Tampa Bay
Dominican Republic Radar (Flhurricane Recording/Loop of this Radar)
{{StormCarib}}
Fay plotted on Google Map
{{StormLinks|Fay|06|6|2008|1|Fay}}
| SteveABoston |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:11 AM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches up for the Keys
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I have business in Tampa tomorrow, flying in from Boston MA 7 arrive in Tamp 10:30....leave Tampa 6PM..... other then talking with a Delta rep on the phone that does not know much of anything regarding TS Fay, is their any other means of contacting the air port to find out when they might start to cancel flights or that up to the indiv. airlines? I do not want to get stuck in Tampa...(in a storm, that is)..... I seriously think that Monday would be ok regarding any heavy winds, which should be still south of that area, but you know how the airlines work...
Steve
| Lklnd_Wtchr |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:12 AM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches up for the Keys
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I have been watching the weather ever since moving to Florida. This site has really helped me to understand the hurricanes much better. Although I have never posted here, I do have a question. Last night the NHC has predicted at least a Hurricane when it got to Florida and looks like they have downgraded to Tropical Storm. Any idea as it has been gaining slow speed and when it it the GOM those waters are warm? Just wondering if anyone can shed some light on this.
| Lklnd_Wtchr |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:17 AM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches up for the Keys
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Quote:
I have business in Tampa tomorrow, flying in from Boston MA 7 arrive in Tamp 10:30....leave Tampa 6PM..... other then talking with a Delta rep on the phone that does not know much of anything regarding TS Fay, is their any other means of contacting the air port to find out when they might start to cancel flights or that up to the indiv. airlines? I do not want to get stuck in Tampa...(in a storm, that is)..... I seriously think that Monday would be ok regarding any heavy winds, which should be still south of that area, but you know how the airlines work...
Steve, hope this helps for you. I am attaching a website with phone number on it where you may be able to get information from.
http://www.tampaairport.com/contact/index.asp
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:18 AM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches up for the Keys
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Quote:
I have business in Tampa tomorrow, flying in from Boston MA 7 arrive in Tamp 10:30....leave Tampa 6PM..... other then talking with a Delta rep on the phone that does not know much of anything regarding TS Fay, is their any other means of contacting the air port to find out when they might start to cancel flights or that up to the indiv. airlines? I do not want to get stuck in Tampa...(in a storm, that is)..... I seriously think that Monday would be ok regarding any heavy winds, which should be still south of that area, but you know how the airlines work...
Steve
Just guessing, and you'll need to stay on top of your airlines, but you'll probably be fine other than any usual delays.
If I remember correctly, wind break point is sustained TS force winds
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:18 AM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches up for the Keys
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Is anyone able to find the COC on Cuban radar, having no luck here. Looks as though some dry air is being infused into the system.
This storm is definitely a fighter. I'm interested to see what if any changes in intensity take place today. It's got a lot of hurdles to overcome.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:20 AM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches up for the Keys
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If, and when, the NHC issues watches/warnings for the Tampa Bay area, the airports will more than likely close shortly thereafter. The best advice I can give you is to keep in touch with your airline, watch the updates and if you don't want to be stuck here, then you can always choose not to come. Not a great answer, I know, but the best one I can give you at the moment.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:23 AM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches up for the Keys
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Fay looks as worse now then she was when exiting Haiti, though that could change tonight. Looks like the mountains of cuba are hampering Fay now. I wouldnt be suprised to see the pressure rise during the midday until night fall.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:29 AM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches up for the Keys
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Hope this helps clear things up; it's from the 5am NHC Discussion:
THE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL VERY FAVORABLE AND FAY COULD BE NEAR
HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT REACHES CENTRAL CUBA. IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF...THESE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS CONDUCIVE
FOR STRENGTHENING...BUT MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE HAS FAY NEAR
OR JUST ABOVE HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL. FAY IS
EXPECTED TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF...EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING OF THE FORECAST POINTS BELOW DO NOT
EXPLICITLY SHOW IT.
Right now it appears to just be brushing by the lower eastern part of Cuba, causing disruption to the storm. Watch and wait to see what happens after it clears that area, as that will be crucial to the strength of Fay in the short term future.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:32 AM |
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jump?
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it looks like fay's center jumped wnw a few dozen miles when it passed the santiago area of cuba. looks like it did on cuban radar and on satellite. i'm wondering what implications that will have, because if it did fay just suckerpunched itself again with land effects and wrecked its vertical alignment. on the other hand, if the center weakens and takes a more westward jaunt today, it will get more of a swing out into the southeastern gulf. complicate that with the guidance opening back up by reading more into that shortwave due to pass to the north... it seems like those models may have it initialized too strong, but that's an awful lot of guidance biting on a nne track over florida until the descending high starts blocking it later in the week.
fay is an unusually sadistic storm, from the same school as ernesto in 2006. it does have dramatically better atmospheric conditions, yet has the same penchant for scourging itself on the most destructive landscape available, and hugging landmasses too closely to really organize/deepen. if it really has jumped its center, that could result in more vertical alignment problems and an continued inability to capitalize on the impressive outflow it has enjoyed for days. just got to see how far west it can get... that will have more bearing on what florida really ends up dealing with.
HF 1432z17august
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:34 AM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches up for the Keys
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Hmmm I'm having a hard time finding a center fix... this appears tobe a broad low pressure system again. I see a LLC spining off rapidly NW near 20.8 and 79.1 .. If this is the actually old center, then Fay might not be more than a wave crossing Cuba and hurricane chances for florida will be down to almost nothing, even with the SE Gulf waters. Too much land interaction is hurting this system.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:35 AM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches up for the Keys
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Quote:
Is anyone able to find the COC on Cuban radar, having no luck here.
tracking further north than the forecast track is really knocking it down.
http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/NacComp200Km.gif
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:36 AM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches up for the Keys
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Waiting to see what the 11am EDT discussion is on Fay. I think the center of circulation is way too close to the Cuban coastline for the system to strengthen too much.
Ref the Tampa Airport, I think you will be fine coming in and out on Monday. Tuesday is when the weather should really be at it's worse in the Tampa area.
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:38 AM |
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Re: jump?
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Ok, this storm is strange. I agree with the last post I believe the center has relocated.( Hard to tell on IR, going back to vis) It appears to be smack in the middle of what was left of the deep convection, directly over the SE tip of Cuba. Cuban radar is not of the best quality, but can someone verify this? Maybe this is an attempt for the storm to reorganize. I believe Hati did a lot more damage to the vertical structure of Fay than it first appeared.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:44 AM |
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Re: jump?
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Quote:
It appears to be smack in the middle of what was left of the deep convection, directly over the SE tip of Cuba. Cuban radar is not of the best quality, but can someone verify this?
that semi-circle on the radar I believe is ground/cloud echo or similar phenomena because of proximity to the radar base
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:45 AM |
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Re: jump?
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The storms strength early this morning is the best Fays been. 1003mb. I'm curious on the mb pressure now and also I would "LOVE" to see if recon can get in there.
Ok they update this as 20.5N and 78.6W pressure though @ 1003mb? maybe it is but recon is needed.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:48 AM |
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Re: jump?
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NHC has moved the track East on the 11 am advisory still waiting for the details
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:49 AM |
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Re: jump?
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It's definately apparent today just how much a beating Fay took when it crossed Haiti, but the whole thing is kind of unusual, since Fay actually formed over land. The LLC never appears to have crossed the coast of Cuba as far as I can tell, yet the LLC is clearly being disrupted and having a very hard time getting reorganized.
Without recon, it's hard to tell exactly what is going on, and with the center so close to Cuba the recon can't go in. Frustrating situation... as far as the track changes go... Tampa has still not moved.
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:49 AM |
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Re: jump?
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FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 26.2N 82.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:55 AM |
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Re: jump?
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The proximity to land has caused the storm to have inflow coming directly off the land. Thats why it has not strengthened a lot
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:55 AM |
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Re: jump?
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Looking at the new NHC Tracking map, it looks as though they have extended watches/warnings up to Tampa Bay. That'll get peoples attention. It also seems to have Fay just about off of any land masses in Cuba. But...the forecast plot has it going over the middle part of Cuba...so it could be disrupted again.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 11:06 AM |
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Re: jump?
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Well it looks as if they have appeared to issue a hurricane watch here in Fort Myers, which simply means to start and get the ball rolling. Yesterday, since we do not have a car, we bought two 24 packs of bottled water, flashlights with batteries and moved anything important away from the window (we do not have insurance, but will be getting some after Fay passes) We do not have a first aid kit, but after the storm passes, I will be going to buy one of those Emergency First Aid Kits for Hurricanes from CVS, FEMA or ARC websites. I got one of those hurricane guides as well as lots of canned and nonperishable foods. Thanks for the advice everyone.
See more information HERE: http://www.winknews.com/news/top/27067969.html
Also, apparently there has been four deaths from FAY. See more here: http://www.winknews.com/news/local/27050684.html
Our local mets here are stressing the fact of preparedness, because we still could see FAY strengthen to a Cat 2, even though it is unlikely she will strengthen.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 11:07 AM |
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Re: jump?
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It formed just offshore in the mono passage...the inital position is where the 1st statement is. Such as...Recon found it...then 3hrs later they started issueing advisorys @ 5pm and its position then was on the coast or "inland".
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 11:16 AM |
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Re: jump?
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Fay's outflow looked kinda hindered there for a while, judging by the Vis sat, seems to be improving. Is that maybe cause of the ULL to it's west retreating? Now that the sun is fully up found the LLC and it's right where the NHC has it listed. If you look on WV imagery, the flow changes soon, wouldn't be suprised to see a NW motion here very shortly.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 11:24 AM |
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Re: jump?
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Quote:
Fay's outflow looked kinda hindered there for a while, judging by the Vis sat, seems to be improving. Is that maybe cause of the ULL to it's west retreating? Now that the sun is fully up found the LLC and it's right where the NHC has it listed. If you look on WV imagery, the flow changes soon, wouldn't be suprised to see a NW motion here very shortly.
I also see a blowup of convection beginning over the LLC, which could mean slightly improved conditions. If the ULL is retreating, not sure what that will mean in terms of motion.
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 11:32 AM |
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Re: jump?
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May pull her a hair more west initially but I think that will be a temporary effect if at all. She should begin to feel the weakness in the ridge. Hurricane center discussion talked about 10-15 kts of vertical shear, so that may have been why the outflow looked hampered. It appears to have improved some, need to find a wind shear map.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 11:40 AM |
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Re: jump?
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but.. if the ULL retreats, wouldn't the ridge build behind it? So that would tend to be a significant impact I'd think.
| SteveABoston |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 11:41 AM |
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Tampa Int'l Airport
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Thank you everyone that responded to my interest in Tamp Bay airport on Monday , following the TPC guidance, I think I will be in and out just in time.....I follow this forum closely duing the tropical season and I think it is a great thing we have here....There are a lot of good comments and links and insight.....
Many years ago I was actively involved in TV and Radio metorology, but took a different career path back in the 80's.....so I do appreciate the value of this site......
Steve A
| Firebug814 |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 11:47 AM |
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Re: Tampa Int'l Airport
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TWC just reported that the recon is heading down right now to check it out. I find it interesting that they have moved the storm more to the east this morning. Is there any particular reason as to why? I am still a little green to indepth hurricane tracking.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 11:51 AM |
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Intensity Forecast
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Intensity discussion from the latest Advisory. Looks like NHC is pulling some hair this morning too.
TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 17 2008 (edited~danielw)
...THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING...WITH
THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING 10 TO 15 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS STILL LIGHT ENOUGH FOR STRENGTHENING
TO OCCUR IF FAY CAN DEVELOP AN INNER CORE. THE SHIPS AND GFDL
MODELS FORECAST FAY TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 36-48
HR...WHILE THE HWRF...WHICH KEEPS FAY OVER WATER LONGER...FORECASTS
A BORDERLINE CATEGORY 1/2 HURRICANE IN 48-60. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL...WITH FAY REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL
ON THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA. FAY COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN
FORECAST IF A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE FORMS...OR IF IT TRACKS MORE
TO THE WEST AND STAYS LONGER OVER WATER.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 11:52 AM |
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Re: Tampa Int'l Airport
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Hmm 12z midlevel air data is showing a stronger ridge over the central bahamas. This could result in a more WNW movement with landfall further up the florida coast. Models may adjust some with the 12zruns coming out now.
| Beach |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 11:53 AM |
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Fay Quickly Recovering
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Check out the Infrared link:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html
You can totally see the center is getting cook'n
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 11:57 AM |
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Re: Tampa Int'l Airport
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I believe it would be because most of the more reliable models are trending in that direction. Sometimes it doesn't make any sense at all to us none-meteorologists, but in general the NHC has an excellent "track" record with forecasting.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 11:59 AM |
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Re: Fay Quickly Recovering
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I noticed that on the visible floater, also. Didn't take too long. Maybe that's why the NHC are (as Daniel so correctly pointed out!) doing some "hair-pulling"!
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 12:05 PM |
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Re: Fay Quickly Recovering
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Quote:
I noticed that on the visible floater, also. Didn't take too long. Maybe that's why the NHC are (as Daniel so correctly pointed out!) doing some "hair-pulling"!
Both hair pulling and hair splitting (in terms of track, with the models seeming to be in one of two categories this morning - either up the middle of the peninsula, or on trending more toward the central GOM)...
Glad *I* am not a met.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 12:11 PM |
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Re: Fay Quickly Recovering
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I'm seeing what appears to be two separate CoCs.
Visible imagery is indicating a LLC/ COC near. under the big thunderstorm blowup at roughly 21N/ 79W.
JSL loop is indicating a center trying to reform off of the SW tip of Cuba. Near 19.9N/ 77.7W
Could be a MLC .
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 12:19 PM |
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Re: Fay Quickly Recovering
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If you watch cuban radar, IR, and visible, it appears the loss of convection was due to westerly shear. It appears the shear has relaxed some. Upper level outflow is improving on vis sat, and the radar appearance has improved, along with a burst of cold cloud tops almost right over top of the LLC.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 12:19 PM |
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Re: Fay Quickly Recovering
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Quote:
I'm seeing what appears to be two separate CoCs.
Visible imagery is indicating a LLC/ COC near. under the big thunderstorm blowup at roughly 21N/ 79W.
JSL loop is indicating a center trying to reform off of the SW tip of Cuba. Near 19.9N/ 77.7W
Could be a MLC .
I see a hint of that on the AVN loop, Danny. In fact, I notice it more there than on the JSL loop. There's also some nice banding well away from the LLC, near the southern Bahamas. I would not be surprised to see some of the islands get gusty winds even though they have no watches or warnings up anymore.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 12:20 PM |
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Re: Fay Quickly Recovering
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Just out and about in SE Florida, Wal-Mart was normally busy, just a little more water sales and Publix was normal as well.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 12:27 PM |
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Re: Fay Quickly Recovering
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I feel SE florida especially Broward County north shouldn't get much more than rain squalls coming up from the SE. Dade county though might get some tropical storm force winds..mainly south of Miami and over the glades.
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 12:37 PM |
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Re: Fay Quickly Recovering
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Quote:
I feel SE florida especially Broward County north shouldn't get much more than rain squalls coming up from the SE. Dade county though might get some tropical storm force winds..mainly south of Miami and over the glades.
Maybe, except that if she keeps pushing east and crosses the state, Volusia/Brevard/Indian River counties stand to get beat up some due to being on the "bad side"
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 12:39 PM |
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Re: Fay Quickly Recovering
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In looking at the latest loops, it seems Fay is unable to bundle the energy in one place and consolidate. It looks very scattered which is the way it has looked for the majority of its life cycle. I dont see it doing much prior to crossing Cuba...it is just not very organized.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 12:39 PM |
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Re: Fay Quickly Recovering
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Well yeah if the center comes inland near Ft Myers and north...the glades and north of Jupiter inlet will get sustained T.S force winds. I feel though from there south to Dade county will probably get only Squalls with wind gust approaching T.S force.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 12:41 PM |
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Re: Fay Quickly Recovering
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Quote:
In looking at the latest loops, it seems Fay is unable to bundle the energy in one place and consolidate. It looks very scattered which is the way it has looked for the majority of its life cycle. I dont see it doing much prior to crossing Cuba...it is just not very organized.
Can I have the link to these loops please?
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 12:46 PM |
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Re: Fay Quickly Recovering
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I do have to say scottsvb you have had the best handle on this storm of anyone else posting thus far, so I am giving your posts a definite second look. Hopefully this will end up being a big rain event as it moves up to our neck of the woods in N. GA. We desperately need the rain here to fill up all the lakes that are at record low levels
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 12:47 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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[image]http://proa.accuweather.com/adcbin/professional/models_grads.asp?mod=gefs&cap=GFS%20Normalized%20Spread%20MSLP%20[mb]&gs=gefsstat_prmsl&hr=324&map=atlantic&gv0=E&uid=1218991468140[/image]
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 12:48 PM |
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Re: Fay Quickly Recovering
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Thanks...I went to school for Meteorology awhile back so it helps..lol. Yeah it be great if this storm brings alot of rain to N Georgia.
| GuppieGrouper |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 01:00 PM |
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Re: Fay Quickly Recovering
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This is first post this season. Pay attention to the storm from here on out to see how it is effected by Cuba. The stronger it comes away the more likely it will grow to a serious storm. Rain in Central Florida has been consistent this summer so we don't have a lot of wiggle room for flooding.
| EMS |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 01:18 PM |
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Re: Fay Quickly Recovering
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To my untrained eye, it looks like a hint of an eye forming on the visible satellite, just to the west of the most recent blow up in convection.
Thoughts?
| TucoTheCat |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 01:20 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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Hi everyone,
I'm new to the site -- lots of great info here....
Was wondering if anyone had a bead on Orlando International Airport?? I'm supposed to land there at 9am on Tuesday.... I'm thinking it doesn't look promising. Any ideas??
Thanks!!
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 01:21 PM |
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Re: Fay Quickly Recovering
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Quote:
To my untrained eye, it looks like a hint of an eye forming on the visible satellite, just to the west of the most recent blow up in convection.
Thoughts?
That's dry air.
There's no convection to speak on to the west of it, which if it were an eye, there would be lots of.
I just looked at the GOM water wapor loop and I'm going to have to change my call on this thing.... I think the forecast may be too far north now... although if the front backs up it could make it to Tampa.
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 01:22 PM |
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Re: Fay Quickly Recovering
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Quote:
Well yeah if the center comes inland near Ft Myers and north...the glades and north of Jupiter inlet will get sustained T.S force winds. I feel though from there south to Dade county will probably get only Squalls with wind gust approaching T.S force.
I agree
Dade/Brow/PB are probably the most clear of bad stuff
(barring any unforeseen circumstance)
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 01:25 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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Reference to airport closings.
No one, not even the airports can tell you this far out when and if airports will shut down. There are conditions under which airports do cease operations but I can't recall the guidelines.
At the last advisory, Orlando will be expecting sustained tropical storm strength winds tuesday afternoon.
Everyone needs to be reminded that these storms and their paths are not written in stone and the situation remains fluid.
Keep advised on the latest advisories, be prepared with your emergency essentials and make plans accordingly.
Fay is not a huge storm but still needs to be taken seriously.
| B_from_NC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 01:30 PM |
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Re: Fay Quickly Recovering
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Not an eye but recent visible loops show a large burst of convection to the north and west side of the storm which is starting to wrap around the LLCoC.
Visible Loop
Its extremely close to the coast however so any development may be impeded. I do have to say as far as the general trend of this system, the FL. peninsula so far has been able to breathe a bit easier with all of the land interaction, and most recently the interference with the ULL to the west. Again its a wait and see as to where it emerges from Cuba and how fast the pull will be to the NE before we get a better line on her potential landfall. Unfortunately it will already be very close to home for some and the preparation time will be slightly shorter, so everyone still needs to keep a very watchful eye.
| HanKFranK |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 01:54 PM |
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latest fay behavior
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okay, the center obviously is doing something different. it has spent the last couple of days encased in that large anticyclone aloft, with intense convection clinging to the southern flanks of the circulation. right now it has a small core flareup encircling the eastern side of the vortex, which is swinging westward, perhaps orbiting or interacting with a low-level perturbation running southward to around jamaica. it's not directly under the anticyclone anymore, a little closer to the retreating upper trough to the west. this is resulting in a southerly but still fairly divergent flow aloft, and seems to be supporting the surface center. haven't looked carefully at the other rotation you guys are spotting on radar.. may just be eddies at diffrent hgt levels associated with the detached convective flareups.
the center has sprinted westward, and as scott pointed out the guidance is implying just a bit more ridging to give it a last nudge before recurvature. when the system turns north it will probably be moving slow enough and in a fair enough environment to start deepening/restructuring all the goofy peripheral features which have prevented a more robust inner core from developing. think it will be a mid/high level tropical storm and cross western cuba the better part of monday am, and probably be a hurricane around monday late afternoon near the lower keys, maybe dry tortugas. if this thing swings up the coast far enough to clear the tampa bay area before landfall, it might not come in until late tuesday, and be a substantial hurricane by that time... especially if it deepens with a more compact structure. if the pressure starts falling 2-3mb/hr when it still has more than 12 hr to landfall, then it is going to rock some worlds.
we're inside 72 hours for all the fun and games on the gulf side (still not confident enough to call atlantic side effects if any)... but this is still a very hard system to call in terms of exact location/intensity. it is going to hit the coast at a moderately to highly oblique angle unless it goes in waaay to the north, i.e. the big bend or further west. it's pretty clear now, the further to the left the track stays, the higher it hits, the harder it hits. if you guys down in fort myers take a direct hit, it will be barely a hurricane if that... if it goes west of clearwater or spring hill it'll probably have a good bit more to it. just shift the current offical track left 30-50 miles and it's a whole different fay on the way.
you guys on the florida west coast are a lucky bunch, the bad ones have left you alone for a long time. fay has the potential (though slim at this point) to make up for that, but it will have to start marching to a different beat than the one it has kept thus far.
HF 1754z17august
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 02:01 PM |
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Re: latest fay behavior
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Looks like the 1200Z models are shifting back west again. Curious to see what that does to track at 5:00 PM. The models dont seem to have a good grasp on the enviroment ahead of Fay. Still think we are at least 18 to 24 hours before we have a better grasp on Fay.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 02:01 PM |
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Re: latest fay behavior
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My forecast is pretty much the same as Hanks... though right now I'm saying Port Charlotte- Cedar Key... I can't narrow it down cause it will be moving S-N or SSW-NNE.. and I want to wait till monday morning (seeing where it crosses Cuba and when it makes its turn) to narrow it down to under 80miles.
Tampa always misses these hurricanes...Charley went south...Francis,Jeanne was a TS by time it got to Tampa and Tampa hasnt been hit directly in 70 years? Of course it can happen, but until it does, I don't expect it to. I think Cleveland will win a championship before that happens.lol. well maybe not.
I'll make my offical forecast tomorrow afternoon.
scottsvb
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 02:14 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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everything is wishcasting at this point.
a lot of land interaction ahead - Cuba and SW FL.
the acute angle of approach to SW FL throws a massive monkey wrench in the works.
picking landfall points really only confuses the issue for many "watchers" of this website....
and possibly puts others in harms way if they don't pay attention.
The Cone, not the Line.
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 02:37 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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anyone think about the bamm? its got this headed west late in the forcast. if the storm stalls or waits around it could catch the ridge instead of the trough. bamm has done good so far with the weak fay if she stays weak i will consider this option tommorow as a stronger possibility.
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 02:44 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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Quote:
Hi everyone,
I'm new to the site -- lots of great info here....
Was wondering if anyone had a bead on Orlando International Airport?? I'm supposed to land there at 9am on Tuesday.... I'm thinking it doesn't look promising. Any ideas??
Thanks!!
Important disclaimer first: I am a total weather ignoramus so don't place any confidence in anything I say here and wait for those who actually do know what they are talking about (many of them here) to give you a more informed answer.
This being said, look at the projected path: looks like a not a fast moving system which will only make landfall in SW Florida on Tuesday morning. Orlando will have rain for sure, but not much more so you are probably going to be ok as long as your flight lands on time and not too much later.
My 2cts. HTH!
VS
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 02:45 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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Quote:Quote:
everything is wishcasting at this point.
a lot of land interaction ahead - Cuba and SW FL.
the acute angle of approach to SW FL throws a massive monkey wrench in the works.
picking landfall points really only confuses the issue for many "watchers" of this website....
and possibly puts others in harms way if they don't pay attention.
The Cone, not the Line.
So in other words we need to watch the cone, not the lines? so that means any one inside of the cone can get impact, and the line is just..the line? I'm confused..
Yes.
The line is nothing more than a center point of a system maybe a hundred miles wide.
and that center point as well as the track is a PREDICTION
It is not "for sure"
Educated guesstimate
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 02:46 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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Outer rain bands approaching the keys:
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rada...mp;animate=true
| jessiej |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 02:53 PM |
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Re: latest fay behavior
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[image]https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645082&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL[/image]
It looks like the center of Fay that is shown on the SWMD Recon site is farther south than the forcast track. If the NW then N turn still occur as the track predicts, this would mean a more northern landfall than the forcast.
Here is the link if the image isn't seen.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645082&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 03:00 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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Quote:
Outer rain bands approaching the keys:
http://www.intellicast.com/National/Rada...mp;animate=true
It looks on the radar like Fay's outer bands are just pure thunderstorms. Is this how it is for all of the storm? wind and thunderstorms?
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 03:02 PM |
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Re: latest fay behavior
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Quote:
[image]https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645082&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL[/image]
It looks like the center of Fay that is shown on the SWMD Recon site is farther south than the forcast track. If the NW then N turn still occur as the track predicts, this would mean a more northern landfall than the forcast.
Here is the link if the image isn't seen.
https://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=2854,19644915,2854_19644936:2854_19645082&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL
Um....
I'm kinda confused..the RECON site shows it more south then the plots, what are the chances of this storm being able to curve upward at us, but due to the warm water it is in (according to RECON) can it strengthen to a Cat 2 and then hit us? I'm so confused and new at this hurricane stuff. Why would the lines be farther north, but RECON found it farther south?
| stormchaser807 |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 03:07 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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We are under hurricane watch here in Fort Myers Florida. Look like we could get a good hit here. Tornado watch is out already because we are at a high risk to be on the front right side of the storm.
School suppose to start Monday but everyone is waiting to see if they postpone that.
We are getting ready here for anything! They said Charley would not come this way. We know how that turned out. They said Wilma would be a high end cat 1 or cat 2. Hit us at cat 3.
We are not taking a chance here.
I'll keep you guys posted on how it turns out here in the SW.Florida.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 03:13 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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Quote:
We are under hurricane watch here in Fort Myers Florida. Look like we could get a good hit here. Tornado watch is out already because we are at a high risk to be on the front right side of the storm.
School suppose to start Monday but everyone is waiting to see if they postpone that.
We are getting ready here for anything! They said Charley would not come this way. We know how that turned out. They said Wilma would be a high end cat 1 or cat 2. Hit us at cat 3.
We are not taking a chance here.
I'll keep you guys posted on how it turns out here in the SW.Florida.
We have a tornado watch now too? It will probably be worst then the June 10th tornado then I presume?
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 03:15 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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So then how are people completely 100% sure Fay is going to strike Fort Myers directly? I'm still confused..As previously stated I've never been through a hurricane in my life, got all my supplies and stuff done, but just unsure as to how NHC and other models like BAMS can predict where she will land, and where to watch it. How sure can we be that Fay is going to be a Cat 1 when she hits Ft Myers? I remember Andrew and Katrina on TV, from New Hampshire, and they said then that the hurricanes were unpredictable and could do anything, so how can I be sure that this hurricane will strike me directly? What is the percentage? Why do the graphs keep shifting?
Another thing, you mean to tell me that anyone in the cone will be affected by this storm? So a hurricane is like a massive storm affecting more than one state at a time? This is also confusing to me, because you said the line is the center of the storm, so in essence, the line is the eye? Can someone help? I'm really starting to be confused..
The NHC will never say where or when a storm will hit. The line represents a 2/3 chance of where the eye(or center) of the storm will go. The cone represents the variance of areas as to where the eye will go. Fay has TS winds stretching out 105 miles in either direction, so if you are within 105 miles of the eye the storm will have some effect on you. Obviously the further away, the less of an effect.
There are numerous models used in determining where a storm will go or not go. Sometimes a reliable model gets bad information and spits out a bad line. The NHC looks at all the model runs, plus other factors in an attempt to determine a path. That's the line I would go with, bearing in mind the possible variance.
I am not a met, so I can't give you all the environmental reasons, I just read the tea leaves.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 03:16 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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*scratches head confused*
Why is the UKMET, BAMS, BAMD, and BAMM curving Fay out to sea in the GOM? Can someone explain why only the NHC is having it hit Fort Myers?
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 03:18 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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Quote:
So then how are people completely 100% sure Fay is going to strike Fort Myers directly? I'm still confused..As previously stated I've never been through a hurricane in my life, got all my supplies and stuff done, but just unsure as to how NHC and other models like BAMS can predict where she will land, and where to watch it. How sure can we be that Fay is going to be a Cat 1 when she hits Ft Myers? I remember Andrew and Katrina on TV, from New Hampshire, and they said then that the hurricanes were unpredictable and could do anything, so how can I be sure that this hurricane will strike me directly? What is the percentage? Why do the graphs keep shifting?
Another thing, you mean to tell me that anyone in the cone will be affected by this storm? So a hurricane is like a massive storm affecting more than one state at a time? This is also confusing to me, because you said the line is the center of the storm, so in essence, the line is the eye? Can someone help? I'm really starting to be confused..
The NHC will never say where or when a storm will hit. The line represents a 2/3 chance of where the eye(or center) of the storm will go. The cone represents the variance of areas as to where the eye will go. Fay has TS winds stretching out 105 miles in either direction, so if you are within 105 miles of the eye the storm will have some effect on you. Obviously the further away, the less of an effect.
There are numerous models used in determining where a storm will go or not go. Sometimes a reliable model gets bad information and spits out a bad line. The NHC looks at all the model runs, plus other factors in an attempt to determine a path. That's the line I would go with, bearing in mind the possible variance.
I am not a met, so I can't give you all the environmental reasons, I just read the tea leaves.
So we have a 2/3 chance of getting hit, or will we get hit based on the cone of uncertainty? I'm just trying to get myself to come to terms with what to expect. Based on NHC plots, is fort myers going to be a direct Cat 1 hit? How quick can this change?
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 03:22 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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"Hit" is a relative term.
This is not like a tornado where there is a single definitive impact point, it is a wide storm.
If you are within the cone, you will feel some effects which can be occasional thunderstorms to constant thunderstorms and high winds.
It is possible for a tornado to spawn within a storm cell.
I'm sure you've been through a few of our afternoon storms, this won't be a whole lot different unless the center goes right over you.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 03:23 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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Quote:Quote:
So we have a 2/3 chance of getting hit, or will we get hit based on the cone of uncertainty? I'm just trying to get myself to come to terms with what to expect. Based on NHC plots, is fort myers going to be a direct Cat 1 hit? How quick can this change?
A 2/3's chance the storm will go in that direction. I think you're fixating too much on the line. If you are in Fort Myers you will if nothing else fell the effects of a tropical storm. I've been through a few, the wait is sometimes worse than the storm. Have all your prep work done then relax and watch the Olympics tonight.
| West FL Jess |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 03:27 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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Quote:Quote:
So we have a 2/3 chance of getting hit, or will we get hit based on the cone of uncertainty? I'm just trying to get myself to come to terms with what to expect. Based on NHC plots, is fort myers going to be a direct Cat 1 hit? How quick can this change?
You just need to keep watching the news and be prepared because it can change. I don't think anyone is saying they are 100% sure it will hit Ft. Myers. Once it goes over Cuba we will know more, just hang in there and don't panic yet.
~jess~
| lcdrgas |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 03:28 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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Curious ..Isn't there another section on the site for these basic questions from the amateurs in the room?
I truly enjoy and value the professional opinions on this site. Been following it since I came to know Ivan up close and personal. Nice to not have to wade through a bunch of crap...
Back to lurking and learning...
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 03:32 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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I'm getting a little nervous looking at the new model trends. Especially since Fay is not really vertically stacked yet. Her core is still kinda weak. Which a weaker system i would move a little farther west. Seeing the bams suite have been west of the guidence for the last two days, while the NOGAPS has been on the left side too?? Cuba is a good thing and a bad thing right now, i think.. Close to land keeps it from developing a good core and outflow. But keeps more westerly before turning north?
G-IV is about an 1hr into its mission almost due east of Miami. The AF recon is right along the coast of Cuba flying wnw.
i attached an image
| West FL Jess |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 03:33 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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Quote:
Curious ..Isn't there another section on the site for these basic questions from the amateurs in the room?
I truly enjoy and value the professional opinions on this site. Been following it since I came to know Ivan up close and personal. Nice to not have to wade through a bunch of crap...
Back to lurking and learning...
I am sure they can try "Hurricane Ask/Tell " Under "General Discussion".... I am sure the Mods will say something soon...
~jess~
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 03:34 PM |
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Please Adhere to the forum rules
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For some of our newer posters (and a few of our older ones):
It seems like every year I have to post something like this - and this year
is no exception. From the Site Usage Rules:
"Low Content Posts: Please do not make single line posts containing no
content (ie, "cool" "hello", "I agree", or something else completely void of
meaning). Or general cheerleading, for example, if you think someone did a
good job and have nothing else to add send them a PM, it works better for
this. Otherwise posts like these just litter up the forums. Remember, CFHC
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stay 'on topic' by placing your posts in the proper Forum."
The attempt here is to avoid the use of one-line posts. CFHC is not a Chat
Room, it is a site for Forum-oriented dialogue, so please use it that way.
Reviewing many of the posts over the past two days, most of the one-liners
add nothing to the exchange of information. A lot of them ask questions that
have already been answered elsewhere - sometimes more than once. Before you
ask a question, take the time to review some of the other Forums - odds are
that it already has been answered. Use the PM feature to thank someone for
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Moderators. Sometimes we let this stuff go, but when we start to receive a
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problem. Please help us by following the site rules - it makes the job of
site moderation a lot easier ... and it provides for a more enjoyable
experience for all of the site users.
Thanks for your help on this.
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 03:40 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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Quote:Quote:
The line represents a 2/3 chance of where the eye(or center) of the storm will go. The cone represents the variance of areas as to where the eye will go.
No, not correct . . . maybe off topic - and I apologize if it is - but I think important to clarify for anyone relying on that statement. The NHC certainly is not saying there is a 2/3 chance of the center of the storm traveling along "the line." I think you may be referring to some comments from someone at the NHC yesterday which, if I'm correct, were to the effect that there is a 2/3 chance that the center will travel SOMEWHERE in the "cone" (which even implies a 1/3 chance the center will not only be far from "the line," but will be outside "the cone"). Obviously, the 2 are very different.
Even if the "2/3 chance in the cone" is not correct - and I don't think that's actually the definition of the "cone" on the NHC's own site - the NHC does not yet have the ability to predict this storm, or likely any storm, with that much precision, i.e., to predict with 67% accuracy a line along which the center will travel that far out in time or distance.
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 03:50 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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Brad, your response is fine, however folks let's move the "cone" type questions to the forecast lounge where they are more appropriate. Let's keep the main forum focused on new developments in Fay please.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 03:58 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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It appears to me that Fay is beginning to finally develop an inner core now that it's been out over the water, away from the mountains of eastern Cuba. The convection has almost completely covered the LLC after it appeared to detach itself from the convection earlier today. The southwestern side of the circulation is still lacking but convection has been steadily building around on the southeast to the northwest side (going counter clockwise). It also appears to me at least that the extraneous convection that had refused to consolidate has been shed as the new core is built in Fay.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 04:11 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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Agree, she looks to be really trying to pull it together.
It's really important people not confuse Fay with a fully formed Hurricane. Until she wraps her convection will be messy, lopsided and affect a larger area than normally a hurricane might. She is harder to predict because of this and the NHC has been very on the money so far which is good.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/tpw2/natl/main.html
An amazing tool.
Is it possible the frontal boundary in the Gulf will absorb the ULL?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
Is that possible I wonder.
Far away bands are moving into the area. Ironically if this was a very organized storm there would be less of Florida impacted.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 04:45 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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I noticed the 5PM from the NHC moves the storm substantially west. No discussion yet. Anybody know why?
| West FL Jess |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 04:50 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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Quote:
I noticed the 5PM from the NHC moves the storm substantially west. No discussion yet. Anybody know why?
It is usually up right at 5PM...
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 04:54 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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I think I have to disagree. The center is still exposed on the edge of the convection all of which is on the east side. I dont see a whole lot thats better right now
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danielw
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| Sun Aug 17 2008 04:56 PM |
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Quotes
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Please try to refrain from using the " QUOTE " button. At present there are over 600 users on the site and it clutters up the posts.
Use the PM function for one sentence replies to another user.
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Thanks
| redhot47fl |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 05:08 PM |
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Re: Fay Continued, Hurricane Watches Extended Northward
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Lee-Delray:
Nothing in particular should be read into the tardy arrival of a forecast discussion, though it sometimes follows a significant change in the accompanying forecast.
The forecast discussion often is the most intricate, difficult and sensitive part of the package to assemble -- with other forecasters and members of the public combing it for insights or clues -- and it can be delayed by late-arriving data.
NHC forecasters aspire to release the entire package at once, but it is not unusual for the discussion to follow behind the rest of the package.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 05:14 PM |
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Green Light
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Apprently Fay is overcoming the obstacles that were in her path.
The Funk Top enhancement below shows a tiny green dot of a Hot Tower near the Center.
Latest Discussion holds Fay at 45 kts. But RECON has not sampled the NE Quadrant... due to overflight restrictions in Cuban airspace.
http://i.flhurricane.com/images/2008230_2015ft_s.jpg
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 05:16 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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What does the Green mean Daniel?
edit: the Green is a very high cloud top on a thunderstorm. Nicknamed " Hot Tower" as they help add energy to a tropical cyclone. Similar to a fuel pump on an engine.~danielw
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 05:35 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Green Light
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Where as the convection has cold cloud tops the center is on the western edge. It is also having to deal with a punch of dry air that is getting incorporated...I have attached a graphic pointing to both of these issues to make it easier to see
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 05:35 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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What do you think the chances Orlando will get a lot of rain out of this thing?
Please..this is something that needs to be posted in another forum...there is no good answer to your question right now because it depends on where landfall actually is..thx! Colleen
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 05:41 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Green Light
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Looking at recent recon data... looks to me that the center went west in the last 2 hrs... the vortex data should be in the next 10mins. based on my calculations from the last fix... it went about 15 miles to the west.. around 20.88N 80.13W... will see in a little bit.
**note since recon is at 5kft.. it may not be the surface center.. but they did circle around the above area i mentioned**
Vortext Data shows 82 F at the Surface and 1003mb
| B_from_NC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 05:44 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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This time of day, with the sun casting its shadow, gives us a great look at the center using the Visible and RGB loops.
Fay is indeed slowing down as the NHC mentioned, and with that occurring the mid/upper convection will be on top of her shortly.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 06:54 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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Am I losing my mind (probably), or has Fay stopped dead in its tracks over the last couple of hours? Looking at the AVN loop, it appears that Fay increased in size, but did not move much in any direction.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 06:56 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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Now it looks like the LLC is either not moving at all, or it has reformed back under the heavier convection. This is a weak TS and reformations can happen with this type of storm as it tries to organize
| B_from_NC |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 07:01 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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You are not losing your mind... the only way for her to turn north is to seemingly "stop" for a bit. Convection is now beginning to fire almost on top of the center as the rest of the storm which has been behind her has caught up too. Link
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 07:02 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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Quote:
Am I losing my mind (probably), or has Fay stopped dead in its tracks over the last couple of hours? Looking at the AVN loop, it appears that Fay increased in size, but did not move much in any direction.
You aren't the only one, the Hurricane Center has done a good job so far with this maddening system, Masters over at underground nicknamed it the Joker, and it is pretty fitting. I think the Hurricane Center has a good grip on it, but as mentioned by the official NHC discussion, that angle of approach is similar to Charley, and it just leaves a wide open area where the storm could impact.
Here's a plot with both Charley and Fay on it (click)
Fay is a lot weaker than Charley was at this point, though, so I don't think a repeat is in the cards.
** NOTE this has to do with difficulty forecasting an exact landfall point, other than that it has no similarity to Charley. **
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 07:03 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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The COC is becoming much better organized as shown on Cuban radar, but it is fighting SW vertical shear, as the outflow in the SW quadrant is going between good and ragged looking. Shouldn't be too much longer we should be able to pick the COC up on Key West long range radar.
Hurricane Charley 2004 (NE eyewall)
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 07:14 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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According to you guys here that know what weather and hurricanes are, is Florida getting Feeder bands from Fay?
I am getting thunderstorms here, and think they are feeder bands of Fay is this correct?
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 07:16 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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Quote:
You aren't the only one, the Hurricane Center has done a good job so far with this maddening system, Masters over at underground nicknamed it the Joker, and it is pretty fitting. I think the Hurricane Center has a good grip on it, but that angle of approach is similar to Charley, and it just leaves a wide open area where the storm could impact.
The concern I have, Mike, is that with a stalled storm, traditionally, ALL bets were off. If I remember correctly, Charley stalled for a time off the coast, ramped up, and then shifted to a completely new and unexpected track, taking out Punta Gorda. Years ago, Hurricane Elana stalled and did an about face, then did a loop-de-loop. A tropical system that isn't moving is about the most unpredictable thing in the world, I've found from experience.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 07:21 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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Yes, I see what you mean with the stall, that just makes it all the more maddening right now, as far as trying to figure out where it will go and how strong, when it starts to move I'll keep track.
I have to sign off probably until 11AM tomorrow so this is the last detailed look i'll get at the storm until then.
The rest of the mets and other people here should be able to pick up the slack, and with watches up, the local media and officials are a better source of info than what you hear on the Internet anyway.
The clouds over southern Florida were part of the usual synaptic flow, but they are getting influenced and enhanced by fay it seems, I'd let a real Met describe that a bit better.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 07:24 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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Mike just totally confused me,
Are these feeder bands from Fay or something else?
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 07:28 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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Quote:
Mike just totally confused me,
Are these feeder bands from Fay or something else?
Not completely positive it was a feeder band, but it seemed like the normal afternoon activity got boosted by some clouds toward Fay. I'm not sure if it was or not a real met would know more. Fay's center is still south of Cuba.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 07:30 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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The mets here just said Fay formed an eye. Any insight to this? Has she formed an eye?
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 07:45 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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Don't know of any eye formation... but recon just went through on what looks like last pass.. before returning back home.. Pressure now 1002mb.
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 20°57'N 80°03'W (20.95N 80.05W)
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1002mb (29.59 inHg)
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 40kts (~ 46.0mph) in the southeast quadrant at 21:53:30Z
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 07:47 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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Not even close but she is in the process of building an eyewall as evidenced by microwave imagery on the NRL website. She'll likely not have time enough to close it off, though, before making landfall in Cuba.
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 07:47 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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Storm Hunter,
Any ideas on if the weather were getting in fort Myers area is a band off of Fay?
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 07:49 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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No, Fay has not developed an eye yet. The western half of the circulation is largely devoid of convective activity, and without any squalls to wrap tightly around the circulation center, there really can't be an eye as we know it.
An impressive convective band has recently developed just east of the Isle of Youth on the western side of the circulation. If this continues, and more bands develop closer to the center, we could see some intensification overnight, especially with the onset of the diurnal max.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 07:53 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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Real trick is what happens to the eye wall when she crosses Cuba? Does it hold or need time to reform, that will have an effect on intensity.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 07:55 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Green Light
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Well 8pm adv. is out.. they went with 50mph winds and 1001mb.
REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...21.0 N...80.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
Did slow DOWN in movement.. now to 10mph..
**by the way... interesting to note... Recon is heading home and Flying over the western part of Cuba.. I thought Gov't planes could not fly over there airspace.. Plane is at 30kft.... see attached*
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 07:59 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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South Florida is indeed experiencing the outermost effects of the storm. I believe that this band passed through the Florida Straits earlier today. When it combined with daytime heating over the peninsula, it enhanced the typical afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity.
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 08:14 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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If Fay maintains a good speed and doesn't crawl over Cuba, I don't think that Cuba will have a debilitating impact on the storm. The western part of Cuba is not very wide, nor are the mountains very high. Fay will likely weaken slightly as it moves over the island, but the storm will be poised for intensification once again when it emerges off the coast.
| Lee-Delray |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 08:17 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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It looks like the 18z of the GFDL has swung further east again. I thought that was usually a reliable model, but for Fay its all over the place; any reason why?
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 08:17 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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yes, it depends on the speed of fay when she goes over and exactly where she goes over. if i remember correctly, charley only lost like 10 mph in strength when he crossed western cuba. the mountains are on the eastern part of the country.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 08:50 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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The convection near the Isle of Youth is pretty far removed from the center though. It looks like the LLC that was exposed much of the day has tucked under that burst of convection just to its east. With the latest pressure drops it looks to be getting better aligned vertically. If it is, the pressure should continue to drop...1001 still really isn't that strong
| jessiej |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 08:57 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Green Light
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I have attached the recon data from the SFWMD site. The last 3 fixes are showing the pressure drop and a mostly stationary storm.
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 08:59 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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The last visible images from earlier did seem to indicate the low was getting tucked under the convective area. The slowdown (almost stall) is also interesting. I wonder if this will affect the model forecasts. The latest GFDL shows a shift a little more eastward. This is certainly an interesting system to track with the frequent changes.
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 09:02 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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storms usually slow down or stall when they are changing directions. fay was forcast to turn more to the northwest arouond midnight anyway so this might just be a couple hours early. we shall see..
| engicedave |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 09:09 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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But, if I am looking at it right, it's been stationary for about 3 hrs
Even for a turn, and I agree they'll slow or stall for a turn, but three hrs (at least so far) seems a long time and is going to have to change the models significantly.
I didn't see anything about a predicted stall in the 5pm discussion
Right?
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 09:11 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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it hasnt been stationary, it just seems like it. it is moving a lot slower but not sitting still.
| Jumaduke |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 09:14 PM |
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Plot reliability
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Hi everyone, I read y'all intensely but hardly ever post. I am currently poised right on Fay's track at 2 p.m. Wednesday at hurricane status well inland ... but of course, who knows what will happen once she's out over open water. I have been studying the plots all day and am wondering if anyone can clarify which computer models reference other computer models, and which are completely independent. IOW, if several models reference one that has faulty information or unreliable data, all bets are off; they could show Fay's projected track and seem to give the viewer a sense of consensus, when in reality it's a consensus of reference rather than a consensus of independent information compiled and forecasted. Also, is there any one model that has shown a higher percentage of accuracy over the years? I seem to remember in the cases of Frances and Katrina that their eventual paths were accurately predicted by the same model, but I can't recall which one that was.
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 09:16 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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She is starting to get much better organized. LLC is underneath some of the coldest cloud tops. Her western convection area is expanding, and she is moving, albeit slow, and I do believe I'm seeing more of a NW-erly component in Fay's direction. She may be slowing down so much cause she's fighting the pull of the ULL to her west vs. the weakness in the ridge above her.
Hurricane Charley 2004 ( Port Charlotte- NE Eyewall)
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 09:18 PM |
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Re: Plot reliability
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I'm pretty sure the GFDL uses data from the GFS
| NewWatcher |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 09:22 PM |
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Re: Plot reliability
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W\hen Katrina was poised to track across south florida the GFDL model was the only one that accurately predicted the south of west track the eventually ensued. its a pretty good model. also the gfdl model is run using info from the gfs model, which isnt bad either. the hwrf is a newer model with much less track record to go by. the bamm bams and bamd are all used more for systems that are more shallow even tho one means shallow, one medium and one deep, mostly i dont look at them at all. the ecmwf, which you probably wont see much is a reliable model as well.
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 09:23 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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I just did some quick research, and if you go back and look at the last recon data, the center fix was NE of where it was supposed to be according to the forecast track. It looks like there may have been a center reformation under the deeper convective area. This would explain the “stationary look”. This is certainly not uncommon for developing systems.
| Wxwatcher2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 09:34 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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I realize that you can't forecast by satellite image but I'm beginning to think < snip by moderator>
edit by moderator Redington Beach Guy -- we would love to know everyone's personal opinions but the main thread isn't the place for them unless you have subjective reasoning for the comment.
Folks, use the forecast lounge forum for these types of comments.
Thank you.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 09:35 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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That is one (edit by moderator - please refrain from using even moderately foul language) <heck> of a convective tower near where the COC is approximately. Fay is really trying its best to make up for lost ground after trying to reorganize herself all day.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html
| Genesis |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 09:44 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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I just got massively headfaked and nearly posted something that would have been rather bogus as an observation.... on the Key West long range radar, it appears there's a clean rotation over the island SSW of Havana. With the extreme range and terrain, that looked like it might be the COC, and rather, well, puny.
Its not, as the IR loop off GOES-E or the floater makes clear. In fact, the last frame off that floater looks like the COC is stacking itself quite nicely and may have relocated NW a bit from where it was a few frames prior. That nasty little "fuel tank cap" on top of the last frame (the dark dot) looks rather ominous too; it will be interesting to see how that holds in the next few frames into the overnight hours.
It DOES appear to have a more northward component in the last few frames, but that may be a jog - these things do that and over longer periods of time the movement tends to average back out.
The good news is that by tomorrow morning we should have a significant tightening of the model guidance since we'll have more path under us. The bad news is that another 12 hours will be gone on time before some gets to have fun.
| h2ocean |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 09:56 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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It actually appears to have reformed to the NE. Also check out the Cuba radar...it appears to be slowly drifting to the north.
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0.../psjMAXw01a.gif
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 09:58 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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00Z runs... 2D
I would expect a slight shift back to the right tonight by the NHC forecast...... back towards tampa. Interesting to note.. the morning runs go west it seems and then the night runs go east. looks like the shallow core (BAMS) are on the west side of guidence and the GFDL/HWRF are on the east side. To me, thats a headach for the HRD guys!
I think based on doppler radar data i seen from Cuba.. the turn to the north is starting and a slow down has occurred... my question now, can fay stack itself before its crosses Cuba in the morning/2morrow? seen some impressive "HOT Towers" tonight, but then again i see some shear on the west side of the system, affecting the outflow and system. The big player i think now is the shortwave piece of energy coming out of the plains... seems to me in the water vapor, its a little father east than i think the GFS had it by now?
Can't wait to read the essay, i mean discussion tonight for the 11pm pkg
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:07 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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To me, the 00z run indicates a complete split... so the NHC will likely stick to their guns on the eastward models, and ignore the western ones, like they did at 5pm.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:20 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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I think the shortwave is moving faster than what was expected. I think Fay is feeling it right now and thus the stall...but it looks like it will pass by. There is also shear coming from the SW which is impeding outflow on the western side
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:21 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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It's hard to say. The storm reminds me a lot at this point of Irene in 99.
I don't think the NHC will go with a center reforming but I could be wrong.
If you watch the wv loop you will see rapid changes in the environment around the storm and to the immediate NW of it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
Rarely can I remember the NHC updating track at 8. I know it's happened but it's rare.
Also the ridge behind it may be breaking down as the ULL seems to be filling in.
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:29 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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Quote:
Rarely can I remember the NHC updating track at 8. I know it's happened but it's rare.
Also the ridge behind it may be breaking down as the ULL seems to be filling in.
Yes, but will it stay that way?
I've never seen the NHC update the track in an intermediate advisory.... the intensity they update periodically but never the track.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:42 PM |
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Guessing on continuity
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I return to the internet after being in the wilderness for three months in Yellowstone and find myself racing a tropical system back home.
Only having an hour or so to digest, I will go for continuity of forecast in the next advisory. The situation seems too muddled to make any real changes. Maybe a slight change of track to the left and an extension of warning and/or watches. The morning advisory may have more radical shifts.
| metwannabe |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:52 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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As you look at the WV imagery there is alot going on in the atmosphere around Fay. ULL to the east in the Atlantic, ULL to its immediate west (in fact some thunderstorm activity firing in response to Fays interaction with this ULL), trough digging in the Eastern CONUS (not to mention her lengthy interaction with land mass).
Just appears it is a hostile enviroment for a tropical cyclone. Will be interesting to see which of these has the biggest effect on her, especially with regards to intensity.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 10:59 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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Take a good look at the ULL behind her, it is weakening and she's running out of options. she is going to have to do something. She doesn't look to be moving forward speed 10mph but imagine that's a forecasted movement.
Also her structure is funky for lack of a better met term. She developed a band like feature on the west but she really seems to be spinning east of the cords or right on them..
The low is wrapping up over colorado moving towards Texas and my gut feeling is she is beginning to separate from the ULL that brought her here.
http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east_loop-12.html
I don't care how many models say it I do not see how she gets to NW Florida, the timing is off that trough is dipping and she looks to be finally making the Cuba landfall
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 11:10 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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As I look at the forecast points on those loops...it appears that the convection is to the east of the LLC. However, looking at the forecast track, it looks to me like it's going to hit Cuba a little further west. More land mass before re-emerging? It's definitely not moving W/NW anymore...the question is..where will it interact with land what will she look like after doing so.
| EaglezFan42 |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 11:20 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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After seeing the 11PM advisory, and if everything goes to the forecast, what are the chances that Fay will make it up to a category 1 hurricane between exiting Cuba and making landfall somewhere in Florida?
Have there been any storms in the past that have been able to intensify significantly between Cuba and the Florida west coast?
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 11:30 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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More than I can mention here. Intensifying over the Straits is a given as the water is warm however much depends on upper level winds and the structure of the storm being in tact.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
I'm not sure what to believe here except there has been a major blow up around the area that is I believe to the right of the center.
The center disapeered under the big blow up so it's either there or jumping around because of... interaction with land.
That is possible. One possible excuse.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 11:33 PM |
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Chances??
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Chances are 50-50 for a Category 1 Hurricane. And probably less than 20% for a Category 2, depending on the actual track and speed.
I'll have to check the SHIPS model.
Previous Rapid intensifier was Hurricane Charley in 2004. Made Cat 4 just prior to landfall in the Port Charlotte, FL area.
Charley was also forecast to go further north before making landfall, but a front moved through the GOM and Charley made a hard right turn into the Port Charlotte area with very little warning.
Listen to officical statements, Watches and Warnings. But trust your eyes too!
| StrmTrckrMiami |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 11:39 PM |
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Re: Chances??
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Quick Question,
In the Water Vapor Loop, whats with all the purples and oranges? Is that where the storm is most active? If so, it looks like Fay is pulling herself together and we may have a Cat 1 soon. Not too sure, but it looks active in that center, and looks as though there is 2 ULL forming in her? I think that's what those two circular things are in the center. Not sure, because I'm not a met.
| TeamJP2002 |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 11:40 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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Very, very, very different storms, but to answer your question about the ability to intensify between Cuba and SW Florida -- Charley exited Cuba at 110 and hit Punta Gorda at 150.
Yes, storms can intensify very rapidly in a short amount of time, especially in the warm, shallow waters of the GOM.
Not saying that can or will happen with Fay.
All hurricanes are unpredictable, this one seems above average due to it's current inability to get organized.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Aug 17 2008 11:43 PM |
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Re: Green Light
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That all depends on where Fay crosses Cuba..the further east, the better chance of her interacting with more land,therefore disrupting her; the further west..the narrower part of Cuba..the better chance that she will not take as much of a beating. As of right now, the track takes it over the narrower part of Cuba. ..but just as we think we've got it nailed, she starts a turn towards the NW.
Eyes Wide Open is my best advice!
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 12:12 AM |
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Fay crossing
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I think the crossing of Cuba has begun. There has been no confirmation of this and I suppose it could be the area to the east of the center but either way the weather connected with the storm is moving on land.
And, she could pick up speed, even at 10mph forward speed she is crossing a narrow area of Cuba.
The Frontal boundary across North Florida and South GA is moving West to East or WSW to ENE.
Where does this leave our not so terribly organized storm that is currently showing a better presentation on sat imagery.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float1.html
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 12:19 AM |
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Re: Green Light
|
Hi all. Sorry for being a stranger. I have been in the Midwest for the floods for quite some time...and I am still here. Fortunately, I got the house mostly hurricane ready prior to leaving and my firends helped me do the rest this weekend just in case Fay is making a direct impact in Port Charlotte.
I've been looking at the satellite and Cuban Radar out of Pico San Juan tonight. On satellite, it looks like some re-formation may be occuring. However, I am going with what I see on radar. I agree with the NHC that the circulation is elongated. Also, based on the radar, it does not look like there is a center reformation. By all appearances, the center is still to the SW of the main convection and thunderstorms. As for the rotation of the tunderstorms, it is at the mid levels. This system appears to be somewhat de-coupled (i.e. the surface and the mid levels are definately not stacked). This should limit intensification somewhat tonight. I believe Fay will remain a tropical storm until landfall in Cuba. If the shear is less in the eastern Gulf the opportunity will be there for a Cat 1 hurricane.
I hope all in the Penninsula are p[reparing for the possibility of a hurricane. Take care! :-)
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 12:23 AM |
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Re: Fay crossing
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I have been watching what appeared to be a northward move also.
I'm perplexed ar best to say that Fay has 'some' northward movement underway. But the outer fringes over the Yucatan Channel are still creeping westward.
So I shall call it a WNW or NW movement. Something between 270 and 300 degees on a compass.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 12:37 AM |
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Re: Fay crossing
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Key West long range radar is showing that Fay is now indeed making it across cuba headed almost due north. This may end up as an EAST coast storm not the west. The center (via Key West radar) is becoming clearly visible crossing Cuba. It looks like the center reformed in the middle of that ball of convection
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 12:40 AM |
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Re: Fay crossing
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Yeah she just sort of lifts more than moves.
Perhaps the "center" is still over water but the weather is coming our way..
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html
looks to be spinning on a few sats
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html
IF that is the center.. moved or relocated or new or we couldn't get a good grasp on it what would it do to the next run of models??
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 12:45 AM |
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Re: Fay crossing
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KW radar is definitely showing a 'center' of rotation. It is the rain bands going west to east at the bottom of the image and you can see the rotation of the radar images. They might wake up in the morning in MIA and see they have Fay at their doorstep...literally
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 12:45 AM |
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Re: Fay crossing
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Cuban radar does not show that. I think it's a real reach to be using Key West radar to determine whether or not it has made landfall in Cuba. In fact, it indicates that the center is moving northwestish.
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0.../psjMAXw01a.gif
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 12:47 AM |
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Re: Fay crossing
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Cuban radar is showing it making landfall as well...
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 12:49 AM |
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Re: Fay crossing
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I posted my offical forecast in the forecast lounge if anyone wants to see. Fay looks to be going about 330dg or NW-NNW. I'm not thinking this will get west of 82.5W but its too early to tell when the actually turn NNE or NE happens. Monday afternoon or Monday night.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 12:51 AM |
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Re: Fay crossing
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I don't think thats the COC you are looking at. I believe the COC is near 21 N 81 W on that radar. I wish the radar had better resolution but thats where, at least to me, it appears to be right now. I believe what is going on shore now is the bulk of the MLC further showing the effects the shear is having on Fay as the MLC is fairly detached from the LLC.
| FSU NUT |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 12:51 AM |
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|
Greetings from Tampa...
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...hello and greetings from Tampa!
Just found the board tonight and wanted to mention how much i've enjoyed the various insights/predictions found here.
Folks here in Tampa are watching every move this chica makes...especially since the 11pm forecast sends her right up U.S. 19.
Though everything is an educated guess at this point, I can't help but notice the size of this storm. Not very organized, not very strong (yet), but big. I gotta think no matter what, Tampa gets at minimum Tropical Storm force winds on Tuesday.
I have to work tomorrow, yet i'm staying up for the official 2 am update...I should seek help. :-)
Again, thanks for the insight...
-Bill
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 12:58 AM |
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Re: Fay crossing
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Canetracker you are absolutly correct. The actual center is to the southwest of the big ball of convection. I agree that ball has got to be the mid level center. It still seems to be on track or very close to the NHC track. Radars that far out can be deceiving. Have to wait until it gets closer to the key west radar to definitivly find the coc.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 01:00 AM |
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Re: Fay crossing
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I see almost no support (visually) of a center at that location in the last frames of the Cuban radar. It was somewhat evident in the first couple of frames. I think the center has reformed where the rotation is. Would a MLC give that kind of radar presentation? I just dont see anything at 21N 81W coordinates other than rainbands going SE
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 01:02 AM |
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Re: Fay crossing
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It is possible that the MLC would give that radar presentation since that is where the bulk of the convection is. There is still rotation in the atmosphere and at the distance that Key West is at to southern Cuba, the dopplar picks up the upper level of the atmosphere which is why it is extremely suspect to use radar from large distances as a determination of actual movement. All it's telling you is that there are a lot of huge thunder clouds moving on shore in Cuba.
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 01:09 AM |
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Re: Fay crossing
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I agree with your synopsis. The link provided a few posts above of the Cuban Radar is the same one I was watching. The Surface Circulation of Fay remains to the SW of the primary convection and over the Carribean. Interaction with the Upper Level Low has led to a decouple at the mid levels for the time being. The Key West radar images will pick up the mid level circulation through line of site (thanks to the curvature of the earth). What the key west radar is missing is the surface feature that is Fay herself. With the mid level ciculation moving over Cuba and the surface looking relatively stationary, I would not expect a reformation under that area...especially considering that the mid level center seems to be decoupling more and more and heading toward some pretty tall mountains. The thunderstorms approaching the radar, and affiliated with the mid level circulation are faily strong. Once they pass the radar site, the resolution of the surface circulation over the Caribbean will improve somewhat. Rain fade is impeding that view slightly right now. It will be interesting to see what happens during this decouple. Sometimes, the surface organization of a system is "re-accomplished" and the system gets it's act back together. Other times, it's a death sentance and a system never recovers. Time will tell, but a decouple plus land interaction may mean a 50-50 shot that Fay will reorganize or remain very weak. Fay may have gotten too close to the upper level low to become a significant feature in the Carribean, but will likely remain a storm to watch in the Florida Straits and SE GoMex.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 01:14 AM |
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Cuban radar
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This particular radar site seems to gve a better view of the MLC cluster rotating around the broad LLC.
http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/02I.Juventud/pdeMAXw01a.gif
At least that what appears to be happening. IF... Fay crosses Cuba at her present location... and that's a huge IF.
There will be a large number of surprised faces on the Florida East Coast and in the Bahamas
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 01:15 AM |
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Re: Fay crossing
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It will be very interesting what the NHC says. If Fay was stacked and went into Cuba over the past hour then it was probably a 60-70mph storm with a pressure of 992-998mb cause recon cant get that close to Cuba. If the center is slightly west or Sw then the weakening ( or holding its own around 40-50mph ) will hold till morning when it exits. The Next update is critical on knowing where the center is. If it is the 1st one mentioned..then its moving more NNW and was a stronger system making the Keys a direct Impact my mid day monday.
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 01:21 AM |
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Re: Fay crossing
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Quote:
IF that is the center.. moved or relocated or new or we couldn't get a good grasp on it what would it do to the next run of models??
What would happen to the new models?? Well, if you and others are right about a poleward motion commencing at this time, than it looks like we have a NEW GAME! Follow the bouncing short wave.....
I am reluctant to be out-guessed ( again ) by this quirky storm that some others on another Forum site refer to as " The Joker". Have to admit, but thought it funny. Latest satellite and Cuban radar suggest to me too, that a northward turn may have started. Whether we are really dealing with a significantly decoupled system, only visible satellite will confirm. The fact that NHC earlier this evening suggested that little or no motion occurred for part of this evening, suggests to me that Fay may be deepening and getting more organized. Intensity and organization aside, even if we have witnessed a northward motion, it remains uncertain that this may only be some jog, and that a more N.W. motion could again ensue. For the time being however, and until Fidel and his "off limits" air space prove otherwise, I must concur that Fay indeed "appears" to be moving somewhere between 340/350 degrees. As a side note, it has been the "trusty" European model, which has most consistantly indicated a motion eventually taking Fay off Florida's E. coast. Curiously, the European model has been an Eastward "outlyer" of models with regards to Fay's motion.
Latest 0Z GFS data indicates that while the short wave presently in the Eastern U.S, that after 42 hours, most of the troughs energy will be pulling up and away. At this time, the GFS indicates that the 500mb W. Atlantic ridge will be building in from the east. Appears to want to temporarily trap Fay off of the N. Florida coastline. Am curiously waiting for the 2:00a.m. intermediate advisory to see if any wording or coordinates seem indicative of the more northward percieved motion. "If" such motion is confirmed, than we have all new initialized positions ( along with a different forward motion ) for the various models to ingest. I would be personally surprised however if we were to see a significant shift for the 5:00am discussion and position. Knowing the staff at N.H.C., I would imagine them far more comfortable to see visable satellite, prior to commiting to a course change based on IR, little surface data, and a storm perhaps less than well defined. Then, and only then might we see significant model ( and official ) course changes, perhaps for the 11:00a.m package tomm.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 01:25 AM |
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Re: Cuban radar
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RECON is enroute and apparently has been gathering a good bit of data to the west of Fay. They added quite a few extra miles to their trip and a few extra bucks worth of fuel.
Center fix is tasked for the next hour or so. The 2 AM update should have some more information. (to add to the rest of the confusion of Tropical Storm Fay !! )
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 01:32 AM |
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Re: Cuban radar
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I hope recon will be at the perceived LLC within the hour to help clear up this mishmosh of organized disorganization that Fay is.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 01:33 AM |
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Recon
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Recon has transmitted a 995mb pressure at flight level.
I'm not sure if that will be a good reading once they get closer. Seems a bit low for Fay at this point in the development.
Lower pressure now being transmitted...0526Z
980.2 mb(~ 28.95 inHg
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 01:35 AM |
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Re: Cuban radar and recon center fix
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Will be happy to have some real data for the upcoming fix. However, will we have a true fix? Meaning if the center is elongated, than a center fix which recon may access ( given air space issues ), could help, but perhaps only partially define what we are all looking at on IR this evening. If unable to fly over Cuban coastline, than how to truly determine what might be occuring in that sector? :?:
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 01:39 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Recon
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see attached flight image
I looking at the super res. level II data from Key West... its shooting at about 25-33kft where that spin/mid level center is at...
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 01:40 AM |
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Re: Recon
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That pressure seems kinda suspect as they were over the western part of Cuba (how/why they are there I dont know...thought it wasn't allowed). I will be glad to know where this thing is...and I hope that it is severely decoupled
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 01:41 AM |
Re: Recon
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995mb!!! Well, keep us abreast if this verifies, and of course the fix position of that pressure. Perhaps not really a 6mb drop since earlier this evening, as NHC has had no choice but to "extrapolate" surface pressure and wind speed.
If this proves out, than my earlier ascertion that visable satellite would likely be needed prior to suggesting any possible course change, would be out the window. Like you said, MAY have a lot of surprised S. Florida faces in the a.m. ( and potentially a whole new slate of watches/warnings ).
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 01:45 AM |
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Re: Recon
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Although I feel sure that Cuba knows where RECON is and they have limited internet access.
Please do not post RECON locations near CUBA. Flight Safety Precautions are in effect~danielw
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 01:49 AM |
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Re: Recon
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I think your getting the data from when they flew over the mountains... i looking at it now... the pressure readings were taken as they crossed that part of the landmass... since its high up.. pressure is lower on the mountain side...
they are back over water now... descending in alt... they crossed from 11kft on one side to 5,100ft on the other side... I read somewhere we were given permission by the gov't to fly only over the area they are flying... and can fly to a certain distance to the shoreline.Recon is less than 100miles at 1am CDT.. at 5kft above water.. Inbound
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 01:52 AM |
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Re: Recon
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huh? Its proally in operational standings. Dont qouat me on it but when they are in operations and transmiting data and surface observations i dont think they are allowed but they are probally alowed to fly over when crusising i have flown over cuba several times in comercial jets from miami never ad a problem.
well storm hunter cleared that up
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 01:54 AM |
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Re: Recon
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I believe this storm is healthy, well stacked vertically and modestly strengthening. The center appears to be, based on Cuban radar, just south of the island at the moment. It's hard to give a motion estimate because radar frames only run for a short period of time, so short term wobbles may appear to be taking the storm due N, but I believe the motion is more NWerly. As of right now the storm longitude wise is almost 40 miles west of Ft. Lauderdale, just something to keep in mind. Should be more clear where she's going after she gets across Cuba.
Hurricane Charley 2004 (Port Charlotte- NE Eye wall)
I correct myself the COC is now over land and has picked up speed to the NW at least temporarily..
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 02:01 AM |
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Re: Cuban radar
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Quote:
This particular radar site seems to gve a better view of the MLC cluster rotating around the broad LLC.
http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/02I.Juventud/pdeMAXw01a.gif
At least that what appears to be happening. IF... Fay crosses Cuba at her present location... and that's a huge IF.
There will be a large number of surprised faces on the Florida East Coast and in the Bahamas
CORRECTION TO PARAGRAPHS BELOW: link now (203 am) shows continual images, which make it easier to see, and still suggests, in my opinion, all the convection could just be above an MLC rotating around a broad LLC to the west/southwest - as Daniel suggested. So yeah, there may have been a more northward component or re-formation, but this radar still makes it appear that all that convection is not above the LLC.
HERE'S WHAT I WROTE BEFORE CORRECTING, IF IT'S HELPFUL AT ALL:
Take a look at the Cuban radar site Daniel posted above. Unfortunately, there's about an hour and fifteen minute to 1:30 gap between radar images which makes it even more difficult to guess what's going on, but the latest images do show a bit more support for the idea/educated guess that some are throwing around that there could be - nothing certain, not from this radar image - either a more northward motion or center re-formation. Whereas the earlier images suggested - as Daniel stated - the broad LLC decoupled from the MLC (with the bulk of convection) others focused on, the later images are more inconclusive.
This is, however, a VERY limited tool, and I do NOT think it definitively shows a re-formation or more northward motion; it merely supports the idea that I don't think we can discount that theory.
As others have written, recon may give a better picture, but we may even have to wait till the NHC sees some visible satellite images to get a definitive answer.
| Robert |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 02:04 AM |
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Re: Cuban radar
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wow the nhc is late they must be thinking about this as i type.
| vmzamorano |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 02:10 AM |
Re: Cuban radar
|
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
ABNT20 KNHC 180526
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2008
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM FAY...CENTERED ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTHEAST OF HAVANA CUBA.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER BERG/FRANKLIN
The recon plane is not too far from the storm, and probably waiting for more information
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 02:12 AM |
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Re: Cuban radar
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just read this off of the Cuba weather site... its translated to english through google
Read it in English
Click more under tropical cyclone warning.. its in blue in first box
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 02:14 AM |
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Posts
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I believe there are many people reading this site and a few people may be asking questions that others know the answers to. Or feel they know the answers.
Somewhere in ' Your Settings" I believe there is an "ignore user" setting. If you are annoyed by a certain user then by all means please ignore their posts one way or the other. Scroll over it or use the Ignore button.
Questions asked here have a wide range. From Weather to Life Safety. If you have a question please ask. You may get 5 different answers or PM's but someone will answer your question.
Do Not PM someone that is asking questions and tell them off or worse. It can and probably will result in a probation of a minimum of 12 hours.
Just remember. If you choose to use the ignore function. Should that person post emergent information that you might need. You won't be able to see it. Thanks
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 02:19 AM |
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Re: Posts
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look at the radar from cienfuegos:
http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0.../psjMAXw01a.gif
Seems that Fay has made a turn for north
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 02:21 AM |
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Re: Posts
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looks like recon is going through a area of intrest as we write.. although the winds are from the SW at flight level... there about 20-30 miles off shore, and pressure is about 1003mb (dropping).. 21.50N 80.60W.. last point i have.. there heading Direction of Travel: SE (137°)
Location: 46 miles (74 km) to the SSW (193°) from Cienfuegos, Cuba
| dolfinatic |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 02:24 AM |
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Re: Posts
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2am is out. still moving due northwest at 13. Think we all have been misled by those radars, still have to wait until it emerges on the other side of cuba to see where she is going. NHC has done a great job even with such restrictions to recon this storm
| Brad in Miami |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 02:28 AM |
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Not surprising
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Not surprising given the limited data and fact that recon will still be out there for a while, but 2am does not shed much light on the questions people are throwing around.
Even if the NHC is asking some of the same questions some people on this board are now asking - and it's possible NHC is not because it has concluded the LLC's motion is essentially on track - I don't think it would have been wise to mention that in the 2am advisory without the recon data or visible images. The potential to confuse the public by raising those possibilities when the answers in the 5am or 11am could just be that the forecast track is essentially unchanged would be, in my opinion, too great.
But I am curious to read what you all think as the night progresses, and of course eager to see recon data.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 02:29 AM |
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Re: Posts
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THEY MUST OF ISSUED THE 2AM WITHOUT RECON DATA... which means... the first statement... "...FAY NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA..." the flight director had to have called NHC via Sat phone to let them know there inbound, but based on the airborne radar... the center is close to the coast... i expect will get the data in the next 10 mins or so... of location, etc.
"AT 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.1 WEST "
"ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES."
got to be to close to the coast to get a good data
BASED on recon data i just looked at... they flew to the south of the center on an ESE heading... which i don't think they sampled the center... i don't see anything in the flight level winds that would show they were close... they stayed about 35 miles off the coast... would love to see them turn north bound right now!
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 02:29 AM |
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Re: Posts
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I think the center has reformed. Could it move from 21N to almost 22N in an hour? Plus, recon is still getting SW winds at the surface so they have not identified where the center is yet...daylight will be very telling
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 02:30 AM |
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Re: Posts
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agreed with the NHC on the position...its moving NW. @ 13 and should make landfall within the hour and exit around 8-10am...Monday evening and night it could really strengthen into a hurricane. Time over water will be the factor on how strong she gets. If Fay reaches 83.5W then Tampa Bay could be considerd again.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 02:35 AM |
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Re: Posts
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Quote:
I think the center has reformed. Could it move from 21N to almost 22N in an hour? Plus, recon is still getting SW winds at the surface so they have not identified where the center is yet...daylight will be very telling
13 mph is about a avg speed for a tropical system. Landmass interaction and where it exists will now be the talk about Fay for the next 6-8hrs.!
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 02:44 AM |
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Re: Posts
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recon dropped a GPS droponde at 21.0N 80.0W....well to the ESE of the center. reading 1007mb out of it...air temp at surface 28.8°C (83.8°F)
its warm!
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 02:49 AM |
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Re: Posts
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WOW.. G-IV took of a bit ago... is Due east of Jacksonville, Fl.. dropping from 45kt... have dropped two Dropsondes. BOY THATS A LONG DAY FOR THE CREW.. not much rest... Sounds like NHC/HRD need more data for the forecast... think its usually a 8-10 hr flight
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 02:52 AM |
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bad wind blowin' north?
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Quote:
agreed with the NHC on the position...its moving NW. @ 13 and should make landfall within the hour
Um, though I too might typically err on the side of caution, I cannot help but DISAGREE with NHC, and the 2:00a.m position. The attached link, is one of my favorite interactive satellite sites. Go to the 1KM pic of Fay, click on "high" resolution as a "still" or loop. I now have little doubt that we are not witnessing a tight mid level vort center, but that entire envelope is lifting northward. In fact, using the color enchanced IR, I do believe we may be witnessing a significant change to what I believe will be a very interesting 5:00a.m update and cyclone discussion.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 03:03 AM |
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Re: Posts
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I can see on the very large rotating blob of convection on the Pico San Juan radar and I can see what some people here are hinting at but, if you look at the Punta Del Este radar, and especially the Casablanca radar you will see that the convection is rotating around the true COC thus giving it the appearance of moving due North. You have to look at the big picture and that, too, can sometimes be deceiving
What I see is a rather large system moving NW, and that the NHC is right on the money.
links to all 3 radars.
Pico San Juan radar
Punta Del Este radar
Casablanca radar
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 03:20 AM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Posts
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last Dropsonde at 21.6N 80.9W... Dropsonde Location: Dropped in rainband... pressure at 1006mb at surface... appears this is just SSE of "center"... winds avg. about 6kts the last 50m (164 ft) above the surface.. air temp at surface 26.0°C (78.8°F), dewpoint 22.6°C (72.7°F)
WOW.. recon went all the way to the shore... Holy Crap.. sweet! They went due north from the 21.6N... to the coast.
Think we FOUND THE CENTER!!! just about to come ashore!!! I think its near 21.93N 81.00W
see attached
| dem05 |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 03:25 AM |
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Re: Posts
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I too must jump on board to agree that a reformation has likely occurred. Interesting, as the mid level center moved right over very tall mountains and the odds were against it, but I guess nothing is impossible. On my patient wait for the heavy thunderstorms to clear the Cuban Radar Site (was waiting to see the radar resolution to improve as the rain fade affect passed). It is apparent on radar that the surface circulation south of Cuba is gone now. This mid level entity is holding together pretty good so far and is about halfway across Cuba at this time. Looking at the mean motion and sorting out the lurch to the west north west earlier today and the reformation to the north tonight...It looks like the 24 hour forcasts from yesterday are verified and the track remains relatively unchanged with a current mean motion to the northwest. If the reformation is confirmed, the structure is much improved and could be over the gulf in 3-6 hours. May not be the best solution after all from the west coast of Florida, as the system could be in better shape than expected when entering the SE Gulf and Florida Straits. Also, cutting to the NW of the ULL now/sooner than later could assist in the outflow process of Fay in the SE Gulf. Under such circumstances, she will have a better chance at becoming a Cat 1. Otherwise, even with short term shifts in motion (wnw earlier today, and NW to NNW following this possible reformation) no reason to discount the current forcast track for a west florida storm.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 03:28 AM |
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Re: Posts
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Sweet.... GPS dropsonde data from center!!!
Right off of Playa Giron, Cuba..
Coordinates: 22.0N 81.0W
Dropsonde Location: Dropped in eye.
Depth of Sounding: From 855mb to 1004mb
Surface 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
wind speed at the surface was 17 knots (20 mph) from 345° (from the NNW)
Interesting to note.. at 5kft.. flight level winds went down to 3mph
So it does appear we have TWO CENTERS... Surface center near 22.0N 81.0W... (per Google Earth, 5 miles from coast)... Second Mid level stronger center over central Cuba. Shear appears to have beaten Fay tonight... will be very interesting morning!
SEE we have found a weaker center/storm... good job AF Recon and NHC... going to be a crazy morning!!!
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 18th day of the month at 07:35Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 300)
Storm Number & Year: 06L in 2008
Storm Name: Fay (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 15
Observation Number: 12
A. Time of Center Fix: 18th day of the month at 7:12:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°58'N 81°00'W (21.97N 81.00W)
B. Center Fix Location: 38 miles (61 km) to the WSW (251°) from Cienfuegos, Cuba.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,451m (4,760ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 34kts (~ 39.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 89 nautical miles (102 statute miles) to the SE (135°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 187° at 36kts (From the S at ~ 41.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 72 nautical miles (83 statute miles) to the SE (137°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1005mb (29.68 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,517m (4,977ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 36kts (~ 41.4mph) in the east quadrant at 6:49:30Z
| neospaceblue |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 03:38 AM |
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GFS Forecast
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I don't know if this is the right place to post this, but the latest GFS forecast has Fay stalling off Georgia and making a "u-turn" back toward Florida, and moving back into the GOM at about 120h.
| weathernet |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 03:42 AM |
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dropsonde in center
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Given the better overall appearance on radar and especially satellite, am actually surprised that 1005mb was the lowest pressure. Perhaps significant filling, from having passing over ( rugged ) land. If in fact this is so, than we may indeed see a better aligned tropical cyclone when emerging over the Florida Straights, though one with a 1007/1008mb pressure. Hard to imagine that we'll see "that" significant deepening in the hours prior to reaching the Keys ( or latitude of the keys ), with such a starting central pressure.
As a side note........... anyone happen to check out the full 0Z run of GFS. Talk about a case study! If this were to ever verify, than Fay would certainly prove to be the new posterchild storm as "the tropical cyclone that just wouldn't go away". ( GFS shows S. W. Florida landfall, then St. Augustine/Jacksonville landfall, shift WSW and then northward for yet another shot at the N. Gulf Coast )
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 03:48 AM |
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Re: dropsonde in center
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I think thats why the G-IV is up right now... they just flew a very long mission less than 12 hrs ago... at last check they were near 28.0N 75.0W. I think that High off the east coast is throwing a monkey into things! ):
but with the beating Fay took over night... i not sure that mid level center will hold coming off Cuba?... wow... all i see is a BIG headache in the morning at the NHC!
by the way, recon went back through the "center" and are flying right down the coast.. i think i might have seen a lower pressure of 1003mb? see attached image of how close we are off there coast... amazing!
New GPS Dropsonde in... at the end of the flight pic i attached... 1005mb.. man were dropping $3,000 dropsondes on Cuba's doorstep.. hehe
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 04:03 AM |
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Re: dropsonde in center
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HOLY CRAP... the PLANE turned and went north from that last location in the image... WoW... Good morning Cubans... buzzing the land at 5kft.. heading due north... this is American Air Force... doing a recon weather mission! lmao
see attached!
UPDATE: There over water again 100 Miles SE of Key West heading east... winds are stronger on north side of Cuba. Seeing surface winds around 50mph off the north side of Cuba. G-IV just flew south over Nassau, Bah.
| flanewscameraman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 05:16 AM |
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Re: dropsonde in center
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I am looking at the radar, and I don't see this storm following the predicted path at the moment. It looked to me like it took a jog north directly, and is headed more towards the tip of the peninsula. Let me know your thoughts please
| mikethewreck |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 05:31 AM |
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0500 Discussion
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Read the 0500 NHC discussion. Fay is becoming elongated but the center (LLC) is behind the mass of circulation. I am concerned that Fay is being sucked up northward through the weakness like sucking a blob through a straw, first the MLC, then the LLC to follow or reform under the MLC. As an east coast resident, my level of concern went up this morning.
| FIREREALTY |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 05:34 AM |
Re: dropsonde in center
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I definitely agree,,the majority of it has jogged directly north and the rest is following it,,not just the center. SE Fla is gonna' have the alarm rang in the next few hrs I bet... I'm in Ocala for a course for FD for the week, and I'll be expecting the call to come back....
| flanewscameraman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 05:54 AM |
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Re: dropsonde in center
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I am curious what others think about this. The government of the Bahamas have put the western islands on a tropical storm watch, and I am wondering with the models trending east, and the NHC saying in the 5 am discussion that some eastward adjustments may be needed down the line, what this means for the east coast. Will the storm continue to the west coast, but lower on the peninsula, or will it take a more direct northward direction. I have my gas and supplies, but have not put up my shutters. Let me know
| willw |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 06:12 AM |
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Re: dropsonde in center
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I was looking at the WTVT radar and i see a North west movement.I dunno about this whole " it's going north" i was watching the radar. They circled the center and the center was moving NW. It even showed the western eyewall building.So i wouldn't buy this going to naples or below just yet...
Id also like to add that its been going over mountains. so it's bouncing... it very well once over water resume NW movement...
| FIREREALTY |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 06:32 AM |
Re: Northward ho??
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I don't know,,,when u look at the NWS KeyWest Radar Long loop,,,clearly shows wrap-around area,,and that area is moving north...I'm wondering if the notion of 'not to panic the east coasters early' will be a mistake.....when the word comes later and ' oh,,sorry,,u have about 18 hrs notice" may not fly well.....granted is only a Cat 1,..
| mikethewreck |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 06:41 AM |
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Re: Northward ho??
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Fay is not a Cat 1, still a 50 mph TS. The spin up to Cat 1 was predicated on a swing through the GOM. If Fay gets sucked in to Florida further south or east than anticipated, we may not see anything worse than a TS in the state.
| OrlandoDan |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 06:45 AM |
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Re: Northward ho??
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I definitely see a NNW component of the eye looking at Key West radar. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BYX&product=N0Z&overlay=11101111&loop=yes
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 06:55 AM |
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Re: Northward ho??
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A reminder as we progress with Fay....If you post on the MainPage it should refer to it . Model speculation should go to the Forecast Forum as well as "gut feelings" and such. Please refrain from the words "wow" and "holy crap" in your posts. This is not the place for things like that and please do not repost entire copies of NHC discussions, advisories, RECON etc.
If you have a point to make in regard to some of the above info a "partial" copy is fine otherwise a minute by minute post is not needed.
Things are getting a bit busy and as they do posts if not properly placed will be moved/edited or deleted to include the Graveyard.... Read the Rules when in doubt.
| Josh Delsman |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 07:02 AM |
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Re: Northward ho??
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I would definitely say that Fay has taken a northward component after looking at it over night. Here is a pretty good resource that has just been added to Weather underground in the last couple weeks.
http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?l...ur=0&fire=0
I think the center should be able to be tracked via BYX over the next couple of hours to see if the forecast for the next 24 hours validates. All I know is that those storms look messy, and I don't particularly want to drive to work and back in them!
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 07:07 AM |
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Re: Northward ho??
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The NHC has already stated that the apparent center as seen on radar is not the low level center, but the mid to upper level center. We won't know the exact location of Fay until she moves off of Cuba and the recon can get a true fix.
| willw |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 07:25 AM |
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Re: Northward ho??
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I am just saying.. I think it's too early to say the west coast north of sarasota is safe..
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 07:32 AM |
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Re: Northward ho??
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Key West long range radar shows a circulation along the northern coast of Cuba about 70 miles east of Havana, or about 23.1N, 81.2W. If this is the actual surface circulation, it has moved rather quickly to this point since the 5pm advisory, and it will soon emerge over water. The surface circulation could be a little farther south of this point, but without recon info, visible sat, and adequate radar imagery, we really can't tell. I'm interested to see where the NHC places the center at the 8pm advisory.
If the surface center is at this spot, the storm is not too poorly organized and will likely begin intensifying shortly. There does seem to be more convection on the western side than several hours ago, even though it is not tightly wrapped at this point.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 07:35 AM |
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Re: Northward ho??
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It's definitely too early to declare that anywhere is in the clear. Right now, we're seeing a severely disrupted system. Whether Fay can reform and intensify as she moves away from Cuba over the straights is now the question.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 07:53 AM |
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Re: Northward ho??
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Fay is stronger...up to 60 mph and about to emerge off the Cuban coast...this was probably stronger than we realized.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 07:55 AM |
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Re: Northward ho??
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The 8AM advisory now has Fay at 60 MPH, but that is more than likely over the water away from the actual center of circulation. The NHC did not indicate exactly where those winds were found by recon. Anyone have that data?
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 08:29 AM |
Re: Fay crossing
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Quote:
KW radar is definitely showing a 'center' of rotation. It is the rain bands going west to east at the bottom of the image and you can see the rotation of the radar images. They might wake up in the morning in MIA and see they have Fay at their doorstep...literally
I wake up this morning to see that my obs last night (at 12:45am) were indeed correct when most were telling me I was wrong. The center DID relocate last night. I hope not too many people are taken by surprise this morning. This is looking more like a S FL event more a headache for MIA than TPA
| Brett Addison |
| (Registered User) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 08:38 AM |
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Re: Fay crossing
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It's amazing that the Fay crossed the area of Cuba that is relatively flat if you look at the topography of Cuba. Now it appear the center is back over water (barely) and is heading more west-northwest almost paralleling the Cuban coast. Anyone living on both the west or east coast of Florida should not let their guard down.
Check out these radar loops:
Key west long range radar loop
Key west weather underground radar loop
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 08:39 AM |
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Re: Fay crossing
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Quote:
THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXED THE CENTER OF FAY OVER
CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ROTATION ALOFT APPARENT IN
RADAR IMAGERY. WITH THIS FIX...THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/10.
ASCAT DATA SOUTH OF CUBA PRIOR TO LANDFALL SHOWED THE SURFACE
CENTER BECOMING ELONGATED...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO THE CONVECTIVE
ASYMMETRY...AND SOME ADDITIONAL DISTORTION OF THE SURFACE
CIRCULATION IS LIKELY DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER OVER CUBA.
That is from 5 AM. The center did not relocate at all during the night. It turned more northerly as it crossed Cuba.
| mikethewreck |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 08:44 AM |
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LLC
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Looking back at the Cuban radar:
Cuban Radar
And the satellite picture:
Rainbow W Carib Sat
does it look to you like a potential LLC is showing SOUTH of Cuba (look straight down from the tip of the Florida peninsula, under the southern Cuba coast, ESE from the Isle of Pines [comma shaped island under the SE end of Cuba]), relatively stationary, generating some limited convective activity? If so, Fay is a VERY elongated storm! (Picture with pointing arrow attached.)
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 08:59 AM |
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Re: LLC
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The Rainbow image was excellent..and if you check the box for "Forecast Points", you can see that it is indeed moving to the NW or NNW, not directly north. Fay also seems to be getting her act together rather quickly, too. I think a few more hours of watching her movements + more recon data will give us all (including the NHC) a better grasp on what Fay is planning to do. If she was at 60mph as she was just coming off the coast of Cuba, that warmer water may give her more juice than any of us..on both coasts...want to see.
| CaneTrackerInSoFl |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 09:00 AM |
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Re: LLC
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No, that's not any type of rotational center. The LLC is clearly just north of Cuba now. What you are seeing is convection playing tricks with your eyes.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 09:09 AM |
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Re: LLC
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Checking (again) the satellite views, it looks as though Fay's western side is expanding.
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 09:24 AM |
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Re:
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This may need to be moved, not sure.....
I don't understand how when the storm is within 24 hours of hitting the west coast of FL how they can still have "watches" posted. The way this county works is they wont shut down schools and such until the warnings are posted. Wondering why NHC is waiting so long to post warnings and why do they have warnings issued for east coast near Melbourne and West Palm, but not here?!
| charlottefl |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 09:31 AM |
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Re:
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I believe Fay was very near or just at hurricane strength when she crossed Cuba. Currently she has a fairly decent satellite appearence and I do not think it will take as long for her to being intensifying. Now don't get me wrong I'm not forecasting a monster. But a 90-100 mph hurricane is not out of the question. Shear immediately to the west of Fay has dropped to 5kts. As she moves north it will begin to increase some, so I expect modest strengthening.
Hurricane Charley (Port Charlotte -NE Eyewall)
| JustMe |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 09:55 AM |
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Re:
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Our t.v. stations are suggesting that the path is more east than what the NHC is showing. Can anyone else see a more north-easterly turn
| Geoff |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:19 AM |
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Re:
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Quote:
Our t.v. stations are suggesting that the path is more east than what the NHC is showing. Can anyone else see a more north-easterly turn
It appears to me that the eye is currently right in the middle of the NHC forecast cone. The KW Storm Relative Velocity Radar Loop shows the center pretty clearly, as does the Reflectivity loop.
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product=N0S&rid=BYX&loop=yes
Whether it continues in that direction is anyone's guess.
| willw |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:29 AM |
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Re:
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I think a west central coastal and 40 miles inland florida affect is dropping greatly. This looks like a naples event.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 10:29 AM |
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Re: Fay crossing
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"I used the term "relocate" because if a position at 2 a.m. is at 81.1 and then at 5 a.m. is 80.9, it cannot be "moving" north-northwestward as the second one is farther east than the first. It was not meant to be sarcastic, but to state the truth as per the positions given. Either the storm had to be relocated, or it is moving east of north but not moving north-northwest with the relocation. "
I am using the above quote from another site since it sums up completely that a relocation happened. Just because the NHC doesn't say 'relocate' or 'jump' does not mean it didn't happen. I will agree to disagree on the details. Its been a very healthy discussion (and I will soon be paying the price for being up till 3am waiting for the advisory...cant say we are not dedicated)
| craigm |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Aug 18 2008 11:05 AM |
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Re: Fay crossing
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06Z run of UKMET has shifted up the east coast through dade,broward and palm beach county