MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 11:57 AM |
Gustav a Hurricane Again, and Watching Tropical Hanna
|
2:10AM Update
Hurricane Gustav has been upgraded to a Category Two Hurricane.
RECON has found wind speeds of 99 to 100 mph in the NE Quadrant of Gustav.
Gustav is now ahead of the 00Z SHIPS Intensity forecast by some 36 to 48 hours.
7:00PM Update
Site move/upgrade completed.
5:42PM Update
SITE NOTE: We are moving/adjusting equipment around at 6:30PM EDT tonight and the site may be down for up to an hour while we reconfigure for a busy week.
3:20PM Update
Recon has reported Hurricane Force winds, and once again Gustav is a Hurricane (and faster than I thought would happen)
Recon reported a closed eyewall and a pressure of 980mb, with a setup that is ripe for rapid intensification in the short term. Cuba and the Caymans will have to deal with this shortly, and once in the Gulf Gustav will have a chance to hover as a major (Some shear may keep it from getting too extreme or strong, but it likely will have a chance to develop some storm surge) as it moves into the Gulf later this weekend.
Original Update
We are continuing to watch two Tropical Storms.
First, Tropical Storm Gustav, which is starting to leave Jamaica, and approach the Cayman Islands. Hurricane Warnings are up for the Cayman Islands. People there should rush preparations to completion. Beyond that, Gustav has a chance to clip the western coast of Cuba, or enter the Yucatan Channel and has a window for rapid intensification somewhere between Jamaica and the west coast of Cuba.
Once into the Gulf of Mexico, it has a chance to strengthen some, but there may be some shear to keep Gustav from getting too strong. Regardless, it is likely Gustav will be a major hurricane in the central Gulf of Mexico. The Northern Gulf coast, from Northeast Texas eastward to the western part of the Florida Panhandle will have to watch. (And until Gustav shows definite movement and enters the Gulf proper, that's probably the best advice). The most likely timeframe for a US impact is Tuesday or Wednesday. Please read advisories from the National Hurricane Center over the next few days and listen to local media and officials.
But that's not all, there is tropical storm Hanna northeast of the Virgin Islands, moving northwest now, but is expected to run into a forming ridge north of the system which will likely slow movement and eventually push it back southwest, bringing the Bahamas, Florida, and the Southeast in play late next week. Hanna's forecast situation is much more complex than even Gustav's, so it will have to be monitored as well. Too soon to know here as well.
96L that was in the Bay of Campeche ran out of time and never formed. A wave in the central Caribbean has a low chance of formation, but may later, and a wave near the coast of Africa has a chance to form later.
More to come...
Google Map Plot of Both Gustav and Hanna
Flhurricane Long Term Recording of Cuban radar mosaic
{{StormCarib}}
Jamaican Media
Jamaican Radio (106 Power)
Go Jamaica Hurricane Dean Watch
Jamaica Gleaner (Jamaican Newspaper)
Jamaica Observer (Newspaper)
Nationwide Radio (Hurricane coverage and live reports
starting evening 8/18.)
Jamaican News/Talk 93
Love 101 Radio
Kool 97 Radio
Irie FM Radio
Other
Jamaican StormCarib Reports
Jamaican Meteorological Service
{{StormLinks|Gustav|07|7|2008|2|Gustav}}
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports
{{StormLinks|Hanna|08|8|2008|3|Hanna}}
{{StormLinks|97L|97|9|2008|1|97L}}
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 12:36 PM |
|
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Re: another center fix trial
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question for a met....i have seen a number of north moving landfalling hurricanes (Dennis, Erin, Opal, Katrina, and Ivan) when they begin to interact with land, make a jump to the right. erin and Dennis moved most noticable, and Ivan about 50 miles. Is there any scientific eveidence that supports this, or is it all coincidence?
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 02:18 PM |
|
|
Re: another center fix trial
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Mobile NWS key point from there morning disco
Quote:
THE NOAA
RECONNAISSANCE G-IV AIRCRAFT WILL BE DOWN THERE TONIGHT GETTING A
MUCH BETTER LOOK AT THE COMPLICATED UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE
GULF. THE MORE DETAILED DATA FROM THOSE MISSIONS SHOULD START
GETTING INTO THE TRACK MODELS AND SHOULD HELP THE NWS GAIN A
SOMEWHAT CLEARER PICTURE AS TO THE EVENTUAL TRACK EVOLUTION OF
GUSTAV. STAY TUNED.
How soon before we start seeing this data in the new model runs ?
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 02:29 PM |
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Re: Tracking Two Tropical Storms
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We're opening up the main page to talk of the forecast tracks of Hanna and Gustav, and 97L that just formed. We're dropping some of the rules and moderation of the main page about models and the lounges for Hanna and Gustav. (still no-content/alarmist posts). The lounges are for what they are intended, making gut feeling or guesses about the storms, and discussions of models, etc are now welcome here too.
97L was just indicated, it's the wave off Africa, and is now on the main page too.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 03:07 PM |
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Re: Tracking Two Tropical Storms
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Have a real question here..
Generally speaking...when a storm becomes a cat 3 or 4.. what does the high aloft usually do to track
is there any pattern or each storm is its own ..
do they lean right or left or poleward?
Really, this is amazing. So many storms and Gustav is really pumping. yes, he has dry air in there but his eye really does pop out and he will go over very hot water
as for hanna... she's a fighter, fought off that ULL and if that ULL disapeers and the high does build in she is more a certainity I think that Gustav as if he becomes a Cat 3 or higher he will have one heck of a high aloft over him, his own high I may add and that may change things just a bit..
either way the consistency of the models for the gulf make me nervous, its like nothing budges them.. yes a wide cone on the 5th day but this is exasperatingly slow for people to keep watching them spin and worry
and if Ike forms out of the African system.. not even sure what will be as am so busy staring at these two to worry on him, if he forms..
this is one year for tropical storms and I keep thinking that we never really got to use models and sats to play with Betsy, she just drove forecasters crazy stalling and changing direction but somehow this time around with a possibly similar storm we get to watch how the strangeness of her track panned out..
very similar.. and again hit FL/LA.. something to think on down the road not now..
this is the time to prepare and not panic
but heat of the water down below gusav is hot
| mcgowanmc |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 03:31 PM |
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Re: Tracking Two Tropical Storms
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Go back and look at the FAY forecast models.
The CW had them being all over the map, but I think they did a good job.
Note this 5(?)AM how the OFCI(?) was the first to zig zag and now in the latest 12Z
several are zig zagging, and moving towards Galveston.
Note also that the two different tracks, one into Houma, and the one into Galveston
are off by a day. 96 and 120 are right on top of each other.
Next 24 hrs will decide.
I think stall just north of Houma at this time. And a dollar gets you a cup of coffee.
James
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 05:06 PM |
| Attachment |
|
Rainmaker in the making?
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I'm no met, but I found FSU's 24-hour precipitation model ending late the 31st to be pretty fascinating. It looks as though Gustav could bring some hefty rain amounts into Florida as he passes (see attachment), especially South Florida.
Here's the URL: FSU's model
Everyone needs to keep aware this weekend.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 05:32 PM |
|
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Re: Rainmaker in the making?
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well someone is about to peak out an eye soon! who's peaking out? I'm going with a Cat 3 to a weak 4 within the next 24-36hrs... i expect the rapid intensification is under way on Gustav and i think he could reach a stong hurricane before running across the western tip of Cuba... i expect will will see some amazing pressure drops in the next day or two... and once Gustav hits the loop current i think the only limiting factor is going to be like the NHC notes.. the nw shear in the northern GOM, which should help keep Gustav from getting to well organized and expanding its wind field.
~edit.. brain fart.. there's 24hrs in a day... duh not 36
and by the way...incase you haven't read!!! He's BACK!!! so important that the NHC placed the article on the main page! Guess who's back?
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 07:02 PM |
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Re: Rainmaker in the making?
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Just a quick run down of new information.
Hanna is getting recon on Sunday, Gustav T numbers are going up,so it's likely to regain hurricane strength by next morning. I'll be watching the Recon reports, models are sliding more westerly for Gustav, but still in general are not all that reliable.
The site still needs more work, but is good enough for this week. Although it gets a little unstable when we get >1500 users at the same time like we have been.
| efaulkSWFLA |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 07:24 PM |
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Re: Tracking Two Tropical Storms
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WE Have Hurricane G agian!
Hurricane GUSTAV Update
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive UPDATE
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
000
WTNT62 KNHC 291915
TCUAT2
HURRICANE GUSTAV TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072008
315 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2008
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV HAS AGAIN BECOME A HURRICANE WITH MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 75
MPH...120 KM/HR.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 07:28 PM |
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Re: Rainmaker in the making?
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Wow that was fast. With the atmosphere and setup now, it is possible for Gustav to enter a rapid intensification phase, those in the Caymans should be prepared.
| Stormin_thru |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 07:54 PM |
|
Re: Tracking Two Tropical Storms
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Hello all,
I was wonder if perhaps I was off here but in the vortex message is shows surface winds of more than 75mph. See below. Is Gustav up to about 90mph?
Observation Number: 02
A. Time of Center Fix: 29th day of the month at 19:11:10Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°59'N 79°24'W (18.9833N 79.4W) (View map)
B. Center Fix Location: 132 miles (212 km) to the E (100°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,924m (9,593ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 78kts (~ 89.8mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the E (82°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 157° at 71kts (From the SSE at ~ 81.7mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 27 nautical miles (31 statute miles) to the ENE (73°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 980mb (28.94 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 9°C (48°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 71kts (~ 81.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:02:40Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SURFACE WIND OBSERVED VISUALLY
| cate |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 07:55 PM |
Re: Rainmaker in the making?
|
Looks like our neighbors on the Gulf Coast must make some hard choices soon. HG doesn't seem to waste any time getting back up to strength given the chance. Can't wait for the new models at 5EDT. Seems rare to me to have the models in such agreement this far out of landfall on the Gulf Coast. Do any mets in the forum disagree with what is currently out there?
Hanna and Ike worry me for the SE FL coast (where I live). I'm too old, too ill, and too stressed out to go thru another hit like Frances, Jeanne, and Wilma, or even a brush with TS like Fay.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 07:56 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Rainmaker in the making?
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The eye is getting clearer and more circular in almost every frame right now on vis. I'll say probably a 10mb (since 2p) drop by 5pm if not more. Are all 5 indicators for rapid intensification satisfied right now? I think they are. Here is the link if someone wants a look at it. Table is also attached
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/project2003/rapid_table1.html
| lsutigerfan |
| (Registered User) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 07:57 PM |
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Re: Rainmaker in the making?
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Mike,
you stated in an earlier post that you did NOT think that this will be a New Orleans storm!
Do you still feel that way?
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 08:03 PM |
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Re: Rainmaker in the making?
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Stick with the NHC track and the cone, Northeast Texas to the Western Florida Panhandle, that's about all I can say really. Wait until it gets past Cuba -- I don't think (and hope) it will be a New Orleans storm but that was just a lounge thought and by no means correct, I said it probablty would lean more south/westward and it did toward Jamaica, but it doesn't look like it will get as close to the Yucatan as I thought. I don't know about the long term.
I still think being proactive preparation wise anywhere in that cone is a good move. They did move that LSU game up to 10AM CDT.
| Bloodstar |
| (Moderator) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 09:14 PM |
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Re: Rainmaker in the making?
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Well, Gustav is starting to intensify... quickly, latest pass had the pressure down to 975mb. It'll take another hour or two to verify if this is going to be in the RI catagory. However NO isn't taking any chances and May Begin Evacuations Tomorrow. I'm not even willing to make a best guess estimate. I think the NHC has a good handle on the storm.
Hanna, isn't something to worry about quite yet. and with luck we won't have to. (but still keep an eye on it)!
As far as the rest of the wave train. that shouldn't even be a worry.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 09:23 PM |
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Re: Rainmaker in the making?
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Watches put up for lower keys.
5 day cone just offshore miami for hanna. Wondering if Bimini is in the cone.
Hanna looks stronger than the advisory shows
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 09:43 PM |
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Re: Rainmaker in the making?
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SITE NOTE: We are moving/adjusting equipment around at 6:30PM EDT tonight and the site may be down for up to an hour while we reconfigure for a busy week.
Edit:
Move/update completed.
| JoshuaK |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 09:49 PM |
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Re: Rainmaker in the making?
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Quote:
Hanna, isn't something to worry about quite yet. and with luck we won't have to. (but still keep an eye on it)!
As far as the rest of the wave train. that shouldn't even be a worry.
I've had a disconcerting thought concerning the future of Hanna. What if, in making her way south and west around the ridge over Florida, she ends up taking more or less the same track Gustav took, and makes a second landfall over the same area of coastline about a week after Gustav came ashore? That would be a very nasty mess. Of course, with a good chunk of Cuba and the cold upwelling left behind Gustav, Hanna probably wouldn't be as powerful.
Gustav is looking a lot better, and this storm will be something to keep an eye on as time passes.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 11:42 PM |
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Re: Rainmaker in the making?
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Just a note, the site update and move was completed tonight in under an hour, we should be ok for Gustav and Hanna, although traffic will still likely cause us to tweak the site through the coming days. Thanks to the Donators to help make it possible.
Gustav just had another Recon fix, and pressure is down to 975mb, it still has a shot at strengthening overnight. We'll be watching it, it's starting to pick up forward motion now moving Northwest at 12mph.
| smorse22 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Fri Aug 29 2008 11:59 PM |
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Re: Rainmaker in the making?
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Hard to believe that Gustav is heading nw on a straight bee line to LA. From 8pm advisory.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 12:10 AM |
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Re: Rainmaker in the making?
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That's a great question...and probably one the mets could answer better than me.
THAT being said, here are my thoughts on that scenario. Gustav interacted with Haiti and Jamaica, and is much further south of where Hanna is now. Hanna is north of the water where Gustav is and if the models pan out, it looks like Hanna may go north of Cuba.
Point being, I do not think that Gustav has disrupted any of the water that Hanna may *possibly* be entering in the future.
Just my own thoughts on that - take it for what it's worth.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 12:14 AM |
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Re: Rainmaker in the making?
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I stiill have a hard time comprehending how close Hanna is to Gustav and how well both systems are put together. Normally, systems this close to each other would shear themselves, wouldn't they? Of course there are some big mountains in between.
What's the long-long term forecast for Hanna (unpredictable, I know).?
| damejune2 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 12:25 AM |
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Re: Rainmaker in the making?
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I am wondering what to believe myself as far as Hanna is concerned. Her forecast track is so wobbly and erratic that it will probably be a few days or more before we really have a good idea on her destination. It's funny though....another web site, accu-******* is predicting Hanna will be a Cat 2 in a few days; i often wonder where they get their info.
Perhaps if Hanna was a larger system maybe then would she interact more with Gustav, but as it is now NHC says it will be a few days more till she feels outflow from Gustav.
| jessiej |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 12:48 AM |
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Re: Rainmaker in the making?
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I'm not real sure about the Fujiwhara Effect, so how close do two hurricanes have to be for this to happen? If Hanna takes a Western track, and Gustav takes the Eastern most track, does this come into play?
| katchatu |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 12:52 AM |
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Re: another center fix trial
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Quote:
question for a met....i have seen a number of north moving landfalling hurricanes (Dennis, Erin, Opal, Katrina, and Ivan) when they begin to interact with land, make a jump to the right. erin and Dennis moved most noticable, and Ivan about 50 miles. Is there any scientific eveidence that supports this, or is it all coincidence?
I too, would be interested in an answer or theory to the above question. As someone whose house was destroyed by Ivan in Grande Lagoon, a subdivision in Perdido, just west of P'cola near the Florida/Alabama border, I've noticed this phenomenon also.
Godspeed to all who are in Gustav path.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 12:59 AM |
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Re: Rainmaker in the making?
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This is really not the best Forum to say this, but now I am not sure anymore. Accu******* gets their info from the same sources as everyone else. I am not saying they are bad but they are commercial. They are paying bills and in my opinion with their "longer" track they add to Hype. A few years ago the model data seemed almost "secret" in a way. Now, every commercial outlet throws them out with a very shallow reason of what they are. ( Not all JK ) just most including the TWC. The dollar still rules.
| native |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 02:27 AM |
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Re: Rainmaker in the making?
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SC - You know, I was just mulling over the same thoughts today. I have TWC on now and have for the last 2 days (as I live in S.Fla) and noticed the "out of corner of their mouths plugs" I also noticed, no names be mentioned, just tune in...I was somewhat stupified and turned off by the some of the alarmist like comments some of the folks are making about both these storms over at TWC. I mean, I understand the desire to make sure all know about the "potential" of what may (or may not) be..but I did find it all a bit "over the top" Again, not meaning to bad mouth anyone, but, for some folks who only tune in when something's cooking...they could get the wrong impression. I think all sources just really need to focus on this: If you live in a storm proned area, you should already and always have supplies and a solid plan...period.
I do have a question to anyone more knowledgable than myself (read most everyone) as to Hanna. Do we know if she's slated to slow her foward speed over the next 24-36 hrs. If so, how will that set up or come into play with the High and ULL and possibly the chance that she may turn out to be just a really close call the Southern CONUS?
I would appreciate any links/explaination that my help me suss this one out for myself.
At this time however, I just don't see how she makes the hard southwest turn...unless the high sets up stronger and more easterly.
| Sheeper |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 02:33 AM |
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GUSTAV watching
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not sure if this is the right place BUT.....
I am deploying to the NOLA EOC tomorrow (saturday). I'll be happy to provide updates and info from the "front line" there.
So far....no one in NOLA is taking chances. amazing resources are being mobilized. FEMA has carte blanche (hence me being pulled in). This is not to be a repeat of Katrina when it comes to response.
What we are expecting now from Gustav if for NOLA to be on the N/NE/SE side of the storm. As most here know....that is the "wet" part of a hurricane. Plus the storm surge will be pushed the most to the "right" side of the storm.
There is still some expectation (call it hope) that the storm will track further west....and some models support that. Only time will tell for sure on that. To be sure....the further the track west....the better off NOLA will be.
i will try and report back when i can. probably late saturday.
| wxman007 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 02:45 AM |
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Re: Rainmaker in the making?
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Quote:
I do have a question to anyone more knowledgable than myself (read most everyone) as to Hanna. Do we know if she's slated to slow her foward speed over the next 24-36 hrs. If so, how will that set up or come into play with the High and ULL and possibly the chance that she may turn out to be just a really close call the Southern CONUS?
I would appreciate any links/explaination that my help me suss this one out for myself.
At this time however, I just don't see how she makes the hard southwest turn...unless the high sets up stronger and more easterly.
The same blocking high configuration that steered Fay westward across the Peninsula will likely be in place for Hanna. As the ULL pulls away she should stall and weaken a bit in the face of some SW shear, then the high will reassert itself and should push Hanna SW thru the Florida Straits and very possibily into the GOM.
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 04:04 AM |
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Re: GUSTAV watching
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Quote:
I am deploying to the NOLA EOC tomorrow (saturday). I'll be happy to provide updates and info from the "front line" there. (...) I will try and report back when i can. probably late saturday.
First, thank you for keeping us informed! Yes, please do keep us posted.
I understand that Nagin is thinking of ordering the evacuation of NO tomorrow Sat. What percentage of the population do you expect to be leaving? What are the plans to assist those who will not be able to leave if the levees breach again?
As far as I know, with Katrina only actually got Cat1 force winds and the eye made landfall on the right of NO. This time, you are looking at a possible Cat3 and you will be in the right quadrant. Be very, very careful, this might end up being a far more powerful hurricane.
Stay safe and God bless.
VS
| lunkerhunter |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 04:38 AM |
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Re: Gustav a Hurricane Again, and Watching Tropical Hanna
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Gustav is approaching the deep hot water at 81W, and is already growing a thick deep red (or white) band on satellite in the entire NW quadrant which is now over that area. These are the beginnings of rapid intensification and the pressure bombing out.
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/2008/loopcurrent_aug24.png
edit by redingtonbeachguy -- thanks lunkerhunter. I put together an outline in a few messages below this so folks might understand it all a bit better. I'm sure the mets here will be discussing it too.
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 04:41 AM |
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Re: GUSTAV watching
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I think Hanna hit a wall tonight... and maybe is stuck... i just don't think she's moving to the wnw at 14mph... maybe ssw at 5?.... take a look... the surface low can be seen on IR... whether this is short term or long term... i do not know... but its like the shear caused to the surface center to almost stall? a new center may try to form under the mid-level center? or is being pulled back to the covection... but hanna is not doing what is she is forecasted to do... in my opinion, thanks to the ULL to the west
look at 65w 21.5n
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-ir2.html
NIce graphic to show what Gustav has ahead of him...
http://www.nasa.gov/images/content/270531main_gustav_20080829_lg.jpg
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 04:42 AM |
| Attachment |
|
Loop Current
|
There's a lot of talk developing about Gustav heading toward the Loop Current so I drew a quick overlay of Gustav's current projected path over the Loop while showing the current heat indexes there as shown by LSU.
That gif is attached to this message. Since I'm not a Met, please use it for educational purposes only - not for tracking.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 04:54 AM |
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Re: Gustav a Hurricane Again, and Watching Tropical Hanna
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Recon has found a pressure of 969mb, and it looks like they are passing through the eye because winds are almost calm
| flahurricane |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 05:12 AM |
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Re: Gustav a Hurricane Again, and Watching Tropical Hanna
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Dropsonde in the eye showing 971mb at the surface.
Wonder if they'll update him to a Cat 2 at 2am.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 05:40 AM |
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Re: Gustav a Hurricane Again, and Watching Tropical Hanna
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URNT12 KNHC 300519
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 30/04:47:00Z
B. 19 deg 35 min N
080 deg 37 min W (54 miles (87 km) to the ENE (69°) from George Town, Cayman Islands (GBR).
C. 700 mb 2843 m
D. 76 kt (~ 87.5mph)
E. 339 deg 020 nm
F. 069 deg 084 kt (From the ENE at ~ 96.7mph)
G. 337 deg 026 nm
H. 971 mb
I. 8 C/ 3045 m
J. 14 C/ 3047 m
K. 5 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF302 1307A GUSTAV OB 04
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WND 85 KT SE QUAD 04:54:10 Z
| flahurricane |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 05:56 AM |
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Re: Gustav a Hurricane Again, and Watching Tropical Hanna
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Still a cat 1 according to NHC. But quickly strengthening.
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danielw
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| Sat Aug 30 2008 06:06 AM |
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Re: Gustav a Hurricane Again, and Watching Tropical Hanna
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04:47:30Z
19.550N 80.600W
696.9 mb (~ 20.58 inHg)
2,879 meters(~ 9,446 feet)
969.5 mb (~ 28.63 inHg)
Data from the Plane, which reflects the pressure given prior to the VORTEX. NHC appears to be using the dropsonde pressure in the Advisory.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 06:10 AM |
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Re: Gustav a Hurricane Again, and Watching Tropical Hanna
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Max Flight level wind... this pass through the Eye
05:53:00Z 20.083N 80.467W
985.0 mb(~ 29.09 inHg) -
From 142° at 96 knots(From the SE at ~ 110.4 mph)
Minimum Aircraft pressure... this pass. Not from Dropsonde
05:58:00Z 19.867N 80.650W
969.8 mb(~ 28.64 inHg)
edit-110mph at Flight Level should bring the surface wind speed up to 95 to 100mph. 90% rule gives 99mph at the surface.
Lowest aircraft pressure passing through the Eye... this pass.
06:01:00Z 19.733N 80.767W
966.9 mb(~ 28.55 inHg)
| flahurricane |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 06:17 AM |
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Re: Gustav a Hurricane Again, and Watching Tropical Hanna
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and imagine that....10 minutes later Gustav is now a Category 2 hurricane!
210 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2008
DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
GUSTAV CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND NOW HAS MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR 100
MPH...155 KM/HR WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THIS MAKES GUSTAV A CATEGORY TWO
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
| flahurricane |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 06:20 AM |
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Re: Gustav a Hurricane Again, and Watching Tropical Hanna
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Wow. Now 966.9mb in the center..he is deepening!
| heynow |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 06:20 AM |
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Re: GUSTAV watching
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Yes, New Orleans didn't get a direct hit from Katrina and was on what is considered the "good" side of a hurricane. But, New Orleans is different. The worst possible scenario for New Orleans is to get a big, slow, powerful hurricane that lands to right to the east. It pushes water from Lake Pontchartrain into the city from above--if the levees don't hold then it is catastophe (as we all know).
I postulate that New Orleans would fair better from a west side hurricane. Needless to say, New Orleans cannot endure another hurricane right now, whether it is from the "good" side or "bad" side.
For my part, I am facing the worst scenario. I live in Abbeville, LA and a Cat 4 hurricane coming up Vermilion Bay would put 3 feet of water in my house (I am 20 miles from the coast and 17 feet above sea level). I am leaving tomorrow and hoping for the best. Luckily, I have been paying for flood insurance for 5 years (a lesson from Lili).
Sorry for the diatribe, but I am not as smart weatherwise as most of the people here, so I have nothing substantial to add. Just my thanks.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 06:29 AM |
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Re: GUSTAV watching
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I hope the rest of the people in Acadiana will heed your warning and evacuate to higher, safer ground.
Remember... Hide from the Wind, and Run from the Water.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 06:35 AM |
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Re: GUSTAV watching
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URNT12 KNHC 300630
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072008
A. 30/06:01:30Z
B. 19 deg 43 min N
080 deg 47 min W
C. 700 mb 2831 m
D. 75 kt
E. 041 deg 24 nm
F. 147 deg 100 kt
G. 042 deg 028 nm
H. 969 mb
I. 8 C/ 3033 m
J. 15 C/ 3050 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C30
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF302 1307A GUSTAV OB 09
MAX FL WIND 100 KT NE QUAD 05:53:20 Z
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 08:33 AM |
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Re: GUSTAV watching
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Latest recon vortex 815z, has minimum pressure down to 965mb - thats a drop of 4 mb in 2 hours, and shows Gustav is really starting to get his act together. Anticipate that Little Cayman and Cayman Brac have taken quite a lashing, but not as much of a lashing as the Isle of Youth and western Cuba are set to take this afternoon!
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 09:02 AM |
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Re: Gustav a Hurricane Again, and Watching Tropical Hanna
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Gustav is undergoing rapid intensification tonight. Unsurprising, given that it has finally freed itself of the grips of those mountainous islands in its path...while at the same time hitting a swath of increasingly deep, very warm SSTs...
Outflow is abundant in all quadrants, yet a little bit pinched to the northwest and west.
Gustav will probably be declared a major hurricane by 8AM, and perhaps much sooner. Pressures are falling appreciably tonight. The most recent vort fix has Gustav down to 965mb, and still falling. Chances are high that Gustav crosses western Cuba, or just left of there, at Cat 2 or higher. There is some question tonight as to how much the restricted outflow to its northwest and west may begin hampering or even reversing intensification. Furthermore, in the near-term, there were some earlier hints of a second eyewall trying to form. An eyewall replacement cycle before crossing by/over Cuba could put a temporary, or not so temporary, dent in its intensity.
Of perhaps more concern, the radius of hurricane-force winds has been steadily expanding. Gustav is without doubt in the process of trying to become a large and powerful major hurricane, like Katrina was. On an unadjusted basis, Objective Dvorak Technique also indicates that Gustav is on its way to becoming a Cat 3-4 this morning. Once a major hurricane, provided that northwesterly shear remains contained, Gustav is likely to hold within a range of Cat2 to Cat5 until landfall. A stronger Gustav may make landfall closer to New Orleans, and a somewhat weaker Gustav may tend to make landfall farther west of there.
Barring an unpredictable eyewall replacement cycle or more shear than anticipated, Gustav probably maintains in the 110 to potentially as high as 175 MPH range for the duration of the next 60 hours or so, and a track a little on the northeast side of the current cone, at least for a while, seems more plausible. Towards the end of Day 3 or 4, Gustav may shunt southwestward in response to (the possibility of) a strong blocking high building into the middle of the country. Should this type of scenario verify, the central gulf coast may take many hours of pounding, wind-driven rain and incredible storm surge before Gustav then crawls around either inland, along, or just offshore of the upper-Texas coast. This scenario is a very ugly possibility, and unfortunately, an increasingly possible one.
| LadyStorm |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 10:39 AM |
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Re: Gustav a Hurricane Again, and Watching Tropical Hanna
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CNN is reporting that Gustav just became a CAT 3 with winds of 115 mph and could be a CAT 4 by landfall here in the US.
| rayboat |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 11:19 AM |
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Re: Gustav a Hurricane Again, and Watching Tropical Hanna
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Already experiencing wind, rain, thunder, and lightning here in Jupiter Fl. I am in total awe! I feel for the Gulf Coast!
| threw-er-back |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 11:23 AM |
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Re: Gustav a Hurricane Again, and Watching Tropical Hanna
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Newbie to the site and in no way well versed in weather jargon..I happened upon this site and am impressed with narratives..very informative..... I live in Homosassa, FL On the headwaters of the Homosassa, River and Fay had water within 8" on coming in my back door. Ernesto brought water in by about an inch.
What if any effect do you all think my neck of the woods will realize??
Do you belive the spagetti models as to landfall? Is there a chance Gus will make a RH turn?
Hanna looks like she's going to run eventually through the FL. Straits..whats the buzz where she'll go from there? Sorry for all the Q's. Hopefully the more I read this site the more educated I'll get... Thanks in advance
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 11:31 AM |
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Re: GUSTAV watching
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Latest vortex message has pressure down to 956mb...thats almost 9mb since the 6am special update. wow. and it isn't done yet either
| smorse22 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 12:01 PM |
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Re: GUSTAV watching
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By looking at this link below it looks like Gustav is moving east of it's projected path. Do you agree?
Satellite (IR/Vis) Loop IR
edit by moderator redingtonbeachguy -- I usually don't put a lot of stock in a few hours in a loop.
| Daytonaman |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 12:04 PM |
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Re: Rainmaker in the making?
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As a long time Ohioian who has an amateur weather background, I have found an all new appreciation from experiencing Florida weather. This site has really been great with all the discussion and links to great learning tools. Because of this learning I have a rank amateur observation from looking at the many satellite images this morning. It looks as if Hanna is trying either to go north of the ULL ahead of her or to engulf this low. If this is true then it would appear she is north of the NHC track. Any help with this it would be greatly appreciated. Great many thanks to all who maintain this site.
| ltpat228 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 12:05 PM |
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Re: Gustav a Hurricane Again, and Watching Tropical Hanna
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Quote:
Already experiencing wind, rain, thunder, and lightning here in Jupiter Fl. I am in total awe! I feel for the Gulf Coast!
Am 2 counties up from you and we're also getting the very outerbands of Gustav.
Below is a link to your weather in Jupiter.
http://www.weather.com/weather/local/334...;from=searchbox
| RedingtonBeachGuy |
| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 12:14 PM |
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Re: Gustav a Hurricane Again, and Watching Tropical Hanna
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Quote:
Newbie to the site and in no way well versed in weather jargon..
Welcome! As for the weather jargon, heck either am I but I was always able to follow the general drift of conversation to know if I needed to duck or run.
Quote:
I live in Homosassa, FL.. What if any effect do you all think my neck of the woods will realize?? Do you belive the spagetti models as to landfall? Is there a chance Gus will make a RH turn? Hanna looks like she's going to run eventually through the FL. Straits..whats the buzz where she'll go from there? Sorry for all the Q's. Hopefully the more I read this site the more educated I'll get... Thanks in advance
The mets here might be able to give you a better idea but we generally tell folks to watch the National Hurricane Center's three and five-day track cones. And, of course, heed the warnings given for your local area.
| threw-er-back |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 12:19 PM |
Re: Gustav a Hurricane Again, and Watching Tropical Hanna
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Thanks I appreciate the welcome!
I normally do follow NHC, Skeetobite etc. But these storms have a morbid facination for me..and I want to learn more...You have a new loyal follower
| RU12 |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 12:19 PM |
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Re: GUSTAV watching
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Quote:
By looking at this link below it looks like Gustav is moving east of it's projected path. Do you agree?
I've made that same observation. I keep thinking that the rapid intensification is guiding the storm to the right a little but it could be just a wobble. We're still inside the cone of error so we're not relaxing just yet. Remember Rita hit further west of the projected path and still caused enough storm surge to top the levees in Nawlins again and also flooded some low lying roads along Mobile Bay. We're wataching both the track and the SIZE of the storm.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 01:01 PM |
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Pac Man Storm ??
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While most 120mph Hurricanes are symmetrical. There is something strange about Gustav and the location of the Eye.
Perfect circle of high cloud tops but the EYE is located at the 3 o'clock position and not in the center where it should be... like Pac Man with his mouth open.
Also the Eyewall on the eastern side of the Eye is about half to two thirds as high as the rest of the Eyewall.
| kromdog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 01:05 PM |
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Re: Gustav a Hurricane Again, and Watching Tropical Hanna
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Nice breeze picking up out of the east here in Tampa. Definitely "surfs up" here on the west coast of Florida later this holiday weekend.
| threw-er-back |
| (Registered User) |
| Sat Aug 30 2008 01:40 PM |
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Re: Gustav a Hurricane Again, and Watching Tropical Hanna
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I'm above ya about an HR in Homosassa. Thiink we'll get much more than rain? And surge estimate for our neck of the woods?? I might need to get the sand bags ready..Fay was within a few inches of getting in my back door