MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Sat Sep 06 2008 08:12 AM
Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest

8PM Update

Ike looks to be taking the southerly route, back up to Category 4 strength, and still moving west southwest, it will likely make landfall in eastern Cuba and then eventually enter the Gulf, which means it is possible areas that Gustav hit will be affected once again. But the entire Gulf coast will want to watch it. Intensity wise, it is also uncertain how much it will be based on land interactions.


Original Update
Tropical Storm Hanna is inland over North Carolina after making landfall at the NC/SC border, and it is racing North Northeast right now at 22MPH. It will affect Virginia and the coastal Northeast US before moving out to sea.

Hurricane Ike's forecast has moved south, perhaps skirting the northern coast of Cuba, or actually crossing Cuba before winding up in the Gulf. Which would unfortunately be another land falling hurricane on Cuba this year.

Since Ike is already a bit further south than projected, this looks the most likely situation. Which is better news for folks in Florida and the Keys, but the all clear is not ready yet.



None of the widely used tropical forecasting models have it crossing anywhere in Florida now, at least from the east or south side. It's too early to determine what will occur in the Gulf, although it is likely to wind up in the Central to Eastern Gulf next week, possibly close to Florida West coast, as the GFDL shows this morning, or further west in the Gulf.


Parts of Florida remain in the cone, so it is worth keeping an eye on, but the concern for the east coast of Florida is much much less than a day ago. And it will likely be close enough to the keys to cause watches or warnings and some Ike effects could be felt there.

Josephine was torn apart by shear and now has dissipated, and is no longer being tracked.

Color Sat of Gulf
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms
Spaghetti Style model plots from Colorado State University

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations)
Charleston, SC
Wilmington, NC
Morehead City, NC
Hampton Roads Area of Virginia
Washington, DC
Philadelphia, PA

Emergency Management:
North Carolina Emergency Management
South Carolina Emergency Management

Ike Related:

State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org

Florida County Emergency Management Websites

Forecast Discussions for (Show All Locations):
Tampa,Miami, Key West, Melbourne
Tallahassee

Southeast Radar Composite (loop)
{{radarlink|jax|Jacksonville Radar}}
{{radarlink|mlb|Melbourne Radar}}
{{radarlink|clx|Charleston, SC Radar}}
{{radarlink|ltx|Wilmington, NC Radar}}
{{radarlink|mhx|Morehead City, NC Radar}}
{{radarlink|akq|Wakefield/ Norfolk/ VA Beach, VA Radar}}
{{radarlink|dox|Dover, DE Radar}}
{{radarlink|dix|Mount Holly, NJ Radar}}
Google Plot of Hanna, Ike, and Josephine

{{StormCarib}}
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports

{{StormLinks|Hanna|08|8|2008|2|Hanna}}

{{StormLinks|Ike|09|9|2008|4|Ike}}

{{StormLinks|Josephine|10|10|2008|1|Josephine}}


pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 06 2008 08:23 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

latest gfdl has a major hurricane running up the west coast of FL...models continue to bounce east and west...there are too many variables right now 5 days out..a weak trough means Ike goes towards the central Gulf, a strong one puts the west coast of the peninsula in play...Ikes speed over the next 2 days is critical....everyone from the keys to TX need to pay attention.....

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 08:59 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

It's very important that everyone in the CONE pay close attention.Ike is still way to the SE of Florida,many things can happen.There is a reason why they put out a cone,and this cone covers almost 700 miles by day 5.This is a good time to remember Charlie.The black line had Charlie going into Tampa,but it took a sharp right turn and slammed Punta Gorta.Punta Gorta WAS in the cone.

CDMOrlando
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 09:05 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
100 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008

MODEL INITIALIZATION...

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO ADMNFD FOR STATUS OF UPPER AIR INGEST...

IKE...
A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ECMWF LOOKING AT POTENTIAL VORTICITY SHOWS
A TYPICAL HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE THE SYSTEM TOO TILTED/SHALLOW AT INITIALIZATION...WHICH DOES NOT IMPROVE APPRECIABLY EVEN 108 HOURS INTO ITS FORECAST. THIS DEPTH PROBLEM COULD IMPACT ITS TRACK LATE IN THE SHORT RANGE...AND INTO THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD.

IKE...
THE NAM HAS TRENDED SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS. THE ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SPREAD SEEN DURING ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED WEST-SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST 36 HOURS OF RUNS...BUT SOME OF THIS COULD BE RELATED TO THE PROBLEMS WITH ITS INITIAL DEPTH NOTED IN THE INITIALIZATION SECTION ABOVE.

MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...

IKE...
THE CANADIAN IS THE MOST NORTHEAST WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS/ECMWF MOVE THE SYSTEM INTO CENTRAL CUBA LATE SUNDAY. MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST AN ECMWF-LIKE SOLUTION WOULD BE PREFERRED DUE TO
ITS BETTER CONTINUITY AND THE GFS/NAM TRENDS TOWARDS THIS
SOLUTION. HOWEVER...THE GFS HAS PROBLEMS WITH ITS INITIALIZATION THAT COULD BE CONTAMINATING ITS FORECAST SOLUTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FASTER RENDITION OF THE 00Z CANADIAN...OR NORTHWARD VERSION OF THE FS/ECMWF...WOULD BE MOST SIMILAR TO THE ONGOING NHC FORECAST


Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 09:06 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

Very interesting! The shear must have been relaxed quite a lot. The outflow has improved quite much and the convection is much stronger, especially in the northwestern half. The last microwave pass has revealed the surprise: Ike has formed a complete second outer wall and there is obviously the first eyewall replacement cycle starting! So at least no rapid intensification to expect in the face of the improved conditions!
And what becomes more and more obvious: Ike will make a first landfall in about 24 hours on Cuba. The question is: Will it stay close to oder over the northern coast or will it move for a long time more in the middle of Cuba. So weakening will be more or less significant, but modells also still show in any case a reintensification to a major hurricane in the Gulf. Conditions should be quite good for this.


GLT
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 09:09 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

Could you post a link to that GFDL run please?

I assume the "major hurricane" is Ike?

I'm looking at Skeetobite and I don't see that at all - GFDL point towards the panhandle for IKE - do you have a newer version?

Post #3

I'm in the cone - should I evacuate now?

Thanks,

GLT


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 06 2008 09:15 AM
Models

Based on the Model Discussion.
If the GFDL is run off of the GFS. And the GFS is having trouble initialising a CAT 3 Hurricane.
Then one could assume the GFDL might be a tad off in any direction.

Dirty data in equals dirty data out.


smorse22
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 09:16 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

Quote:

Could you post a link to that GFDL run please?

http://my.sfwmd.gov/portal/page?_pageid=3194,21328260,3194_21169354:3194_21260388:3194_21260861&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL


What's keeping Ike to the south? Is there a image that shows this?

GLT
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 09:27 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

That appears to be a link to HANNA runiing up the EAST US coast.

smorse22
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 09:31 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

Click on storm 9 on top of the page

CDMOrlando
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 09:32 AM
Re: Models

Quote:

Based on the Model Discussion.
If the GFDL is run off of the GFS. And the GFS is having trouble initialising a CAT 3 Hurricane.
Then one could assume the GFDL might be a tad off in any direction.

Dirty data in equals dirty data out.




A G-IV {up level air analysis) mission would be very helpful with all of the model runs. The greater the data and the better the data the better the models run.


GLT
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 09:38 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

OK - I see - looking on storm 9 on the sfwmd mud page and then the GFDL track (thanks - looks a little newer than Skeetobite) - yep it's now a little close to Tampa later - way too scary!!

Thanks again,

GLT

EDIT: It should be noted that the GFDL is by FAR the closest to Tampa than ANY other model - probably for the good reasons posted above.


smorse22
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:04 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

The weather channels Dr. Steve Lyons was talking about this being a Fl event from the panhandle along the west coast of florida. They're are expecting it to turn to the right once in the gulf because of a trough. Better keep a eye on this one. I don't want to see another Charley!

CDMOrlando
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:11 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest

The steering current are already starting to change to a move zonal flow and relax in intensity see 9 Hours tc Previous Steering Layer : 300-850 hPa TC MSLP : 950-969 hPa 0200

CIMSS

Latest Available
Steering Layer : 300-850 hPa
TC MSLP : 950-969 hPa

CIMSS

This is time sensitive and will update in 3 hours


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:15 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

Lyons is saying it's a west coast of Florida event, when NONE of the models are pointing toward the west coast of Florida right now? Interesting. I'd say Texas is just as likely as the west coast of Florida right now, given the model trends toward the west.

shewtinstar
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:16 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest

I have a question and I am not sure where to post it. Why would the NHC put an Atlantic floater on a system that is in the Pacific?? They have two floaters on Invest 99E. I have never seen them do that before.

kromdog
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:46 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

Quote:

Lyons is saying it's a west coast of Florida event, when NONE of the models are pointing toward the west coast of Florida right now? Interesting. I'd say Texas is just as likely as the west coast of Florida right now, given the model trends toward the west.




Here is a link to some more recent model runs. They appear to be shifting back towards the Florida peninsula.

http://www.hurricanecity.com/wx/index.ph...=tropsys640x480,tropimap_all&pn=1&ptm=&alt=tropinvestmap


Lee-Delray
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:56 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

Read the NHC 11:00 AM Discussion, they say it is too early to tell if the storm will turn north and parallel the western Florida coast. Dr Lyons as many keep saying Florida, but they should be saying The Keys, extreme southern Florida and possibly the west coast of Florida.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:03 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

Ok Dr Lyons could be right about a western florida event, but he just speculated and thats all anything is after 3 days out. First off the 6z run shifted east. We need consistant runs showing the same thing and with models converging on a specific area. Now with that said, models are good (especially the GFDL up to 72hrs), for up to 120hrs is a basic idea and can change( as told in the days 4,5 uncertainty cone). After 120hrs just dont even bother really unless you just want to see where it might go.(For Entertainment).

So by saying all this, just watch for consistancy and converging of the models up to 72hrs. Days 4,5 have a better chance of changing, and after that, dont take it for granted.!


madmumbler
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:08 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

Why do they even bother using the CLP5 model? That thing ALWAYS hooks hard to the right in the early runs. It's done it for pretty much every storm this season.

From the growing trend I'm seeing on most of the models as well as the NHC's official track, I'm still thinking that LA/AL/MI and even parts of TX should be keeping a really close eye on this thing. Every series of runs lately has been pulling it farther away from the west Fl coast (Keys are still well into the danger zone, however) and toward the Gulf Coast.


RevUp
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:10 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

Sept. - Oct. can be a very difficult time of the year to forecast recurvature on these storms in the western Caribbean and southern Gulf because of their interaction with strengthening mid-latitude systems. Combine that with the fact that we have very minimal data over water, which causes questions in model initialization ... Ike is a storm to keep a close watch on through the next SEVERAL days. The GFS has been quite reliable this season (as noted by others) and it was already suggesting last Tuesday that Ike would move into eastern Cuba around Sunday.

My question is how much will Ike weaken if it moves across/along Cuba? Intensity and timing are still big question marks. Note that the forward speed of Ike is projected to slow down as it enters the Gulf by Wednesday. IF SO, it will be a prime candidate to make a sharp turn to the NE and the FL Gulf coast by Friday, in response to a deep trough forecast to push into the central US. But that's a long way out yet.

This time of the year (esp. late Sep.-early Oct.), we've seen models try to recurve these cyclones over the long term, only for them to continue moving west, south of any mid-latitude influence. While that's not the likely scenario right now, it bears watching.


pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:12 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

lyons said fl panhandle and west coast of fl need to keep an eye on it, because of the models jumping around...so does al to texas....honestly..tomorrow may be the earliest we have any idea where in the gulf

Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:12 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

Next mission in Ike: pressure down to around 955 hPa and highest surface wind 105 kt. No vortex data message until now! Will be interesting to hear about the state of the eyewall!

Colleen A.
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:20 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

The NHC has been trying to stress to not rely on the cone AFTER 3 days out..because there could be significant errors. What is going to determine where Ike goes is the conditions Ike may run into...land masses, troughs, etc..models cannot predict all of that with any certainty.
I saw Dr. Lyons and he was saying that everyone from Florida (meaning all of Florida, in which the Keys would be included) all the way to the central gulf states should be keeing an eye on Ike.

Here ispart of the 9:00AM Hurricane Statement regarding the Keys:
AS OF 900 AM...MONROE COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ORDERED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR ALL VISITORS...RECREATIONAL
VEHICLES...TRAVEL AND BOAT TRAILERS. VISITORS SHOULD LEAVE THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND OFFICIALS SUGGEST RELOCATING TO HOTELS ON THE MAINLAND WELL AWAY FROM COASTAL AREAS. TOLL COLLECTION HAS BEEN
SUSPENDED AT THE CARD SOUND BRIDGE. VISITORS NEEDING TO FIND INFORMATION ON AVAILABLE HOTELS IN FLORIDA MAY CALL THE VISIT FLORIDA VISITOR ASSISTANCE HOT LINE AT 1-800-287-8598. AT THIS TIME EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT IS PLANNING TO ISSUE A MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL
RESIDENTS IN LOW LYING AREAS AND MOBILE HOMES BEGINNING SUNDAY AT 700
AM. CURRENTLY...GENERAL MANDATORY EVACUATION ORDERS FOR FLORIDA KEYS
RESIDENTS WILL BEGIN ON SUNDAY IN THREE PHASES. BEGINNING WITH ALL LOWER KEYS RESIDENTS...INCLUDING THE CITY OF KEY WEST AT 800 AM SUNDAY...MIDDLE KEYS RESIDENTS INCLUDING MARATHON AND KEY COLONY
BEACH BEGINNING AT NOON SUNDAY...AND FINALLY THE UPPER KEYS RESIDENTS...INCLUDING ISLAMORADA AND OCEAN REEF AT 400 PM SUNDAY.
THE EVACUATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NOON ON MONDAY...BEFORE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE. THE SHELTER AT
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY...JUST OFF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE AT
U.S. ROUTE 40...TAMIAMI TRAIL...WILL BE OPENING 800 AM SUNDAY.
ADDITIONAL SHELTERS ON THE MAINLAND WILL BE ANNOUNCED AS SOON AS
THEY BECOME AVAILABLE. AT THIS TIME...ALL COUNTY...STATE AND FEDERAL
OFFICES WILL BE CLOSED ON MONDAY. THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON AIRPORTS
WILL REMAIN OPEN FOR ALL COMMERCIAL FLIGHTS AND GENERAL AVIATION
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY EVENING.

So, wherever you are, you can read the Local Hurricane Statements that are at the very top of the Main page. They contain some pretty important information. We will have a better idea by tomorrow night, I believe, so also pay attention to your local news stations.


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:23 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

Quote:

Next mission in Ike: pressure down to around 955 hPa and highest surface wind 105 kt. No vortex data message until now! Will be interesting to hear about the state of the eyewall!




According to Weather Underground's recon graphic... the mission beginning 9/6/08 14:13z (about an hour ago) found maximum surface winds of 140mph, and lowest pressure of 956.1mb.

IF this information is at all accurate, the 11am intensity forecast can be thrown out the window.


Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:27 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

Yep, new data: peak surface wind 124 kt (may be a bit high!), but a believable 120 kt peak flight level wind.

scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:31 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

I dont believe that is accurate on the winds, probably a hyper burst @ flight level. I do think she is up to near 120mph though.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:31 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

URNT12 KWBC 061509
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 06/1415Z
B. 21 DEG 48 MIN N
68 DEG 16 MIN W
C. NA
D. 85 KT
E. 310 DEG 13 NM
F. 025 DEG 125 KT
G. 310 DEG 15 NM
H. 953 MB
I. 16 C/2413 M
J. 17 C/2669 M
K. 16 C/NA
L. OPEN W
M. E35/25/20
N. 12345/NA
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 0309A IKE OB 08 AL092008
MAX FL WIND 125 KTS NW QUAD 1412Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 95 KTS SE QUAD 1418Z
EYE OPEN W-SW
TURBULENT NW QUAD DRY AIR INTRUSION

953mb with an OPEN Eye... Wow!

Air Force RECON is in the chocks preparing to take off for their Mission. Should be airborne within the next 45 minutes.


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:37 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

Now the question is... will the NHC send out what basically amount to a retraction of their 11am intensity report? Clearly, Ike is stronger than a Cat 2 hurricane right now. Although SFMR reading shows 100mph surface winds.

Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:41 AM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

Ok, here is the vortex data message: pressure down to 953 hPa. They mention a 125 kt flight level wind in the NW-quadrant, but they say also, that the NW-quadrant is ver y turbulent due to dry air intrusion. The eye is oval shaped and open to the W-SW.

vineyardsaker
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 12:04 PM
New Orleans again?!

One one hand I am relieved that my own town is now out of Ike's cone, but I am horrified that it seems that New Orleans is again right in the middle of the projected path of the hurricane. Can New Orleans take yet another near miss or hit?

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 06 2008 12:19 PM
Re: New Orleans again?!

Quote:

One one hand I am relieved that my own town is now out of Ike's cone, but I am horrified that it seems that New Orleans is again right in the middle of the projected path of the hurricane. Can New Orleans take yet another near miss or hit?




I'm afraid not. Gustav leveled most of the high tension power transmission lines south of I-10.
Many will be without power for another week or two as it is.
Distribution and transmission lines are down in much of SE and S Central Louisiana. Another storm shouldn't do much more damage other than delay repair.
It will cost the evacuees more money to evacuate and the area will lose tourism money and tax money.


scottsvb
(Weather Master)
Sat Sep 06 2008 12:42 PM
Re: New Orleans again?!

GFS has moved back west with IKE into the central GOM. This shows ya why each run is different,especially after 72hrs.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 12:45 PM
Re: New Orleans again?!

Quote:

GFS has moved back west with IKE into the central GOM. This shows ya why each run is different,especially after 72hrs.




Very true. When there is little or no run-to-run consistency, it's extremely difficult to put much faith in the models. The "consensus" has not appeared to move a whole lot over time, based upon the NHC's forecast only being adjusted very slightly, but individual models are waffling just like they did with Gustav. It's going to be a long, frustrating week.


hurricane expert
(Really Not an Expert)
Sat Sep 06 2008 01:08 PM
Re: New Orleans again?!

The new gfs does hint its going to recurve but the question is where and if it ever does? and some of the other models are showing some recurve on them.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 01:11 PM
Re: New Orleans again?!

Quote:

The new gfs does hint its going to recurve but the question is where and if it ever does? and some of the other models are showing some recurve on them.




It looks to me like it does indeed HINT at a recurve, but does so basically with it sitting offshore of New Orleans. A recurve at that point would be very bad I think.


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 01:18 PM
Re: New Orleans again?!

The previous vortex message was corrected to indicate a 959mb central pressure, not 953 mb. Ike is probably a little stronger than 110 mph right now, but some of the really high winds reported earlier were probably associated with transient features that aren't representative of the system's intensity. Ike's satellite presentation isn't the greatest right now, but it seems to be at least holding its own.

Someone was asking about the CLP5 model above... I believe that model is strictly based on climatology, i.e. what past storms have done (on average) when they were in roughly the same position. By definition, it is a "no skill" forecast. It is mainly used for comparison with other models... if a model can't do a lot better than climatology, then it is no good. It has little actual use in forecasting individual storms.

Ike seems to have taken on a slightly more westerly track (as opposed to WSW) in the last few hours, but that is not long enough to determine a long-term trend.

edit: the most recent apparent flight-level fixes from the HDOBs suggest that a little more southerly component has resumed.


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 01:20 PM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest Florida Threat Less Likely

Quote:

.......
953mb with an OPEN Eye... Wow!

Air Force RECON is in the chocks preparing to take off for their Mission. Should be airborne within the next 45 minutes.





see both planes are about to pass each other in IKE... i noticed to that the pressure reading from the NOAA plane pass was corrected to a 959mb. wonder what happened in the data?


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 01:25 PM
Re: New Orleans again?!

Looking at the satellite loop, I definately see where the EYE appeared to turn almost due west, and now has resumed a more southwest motion. The overall convective envelope of Ike has continued to shove basically due west the whole time, it appears, though, so the eye movements may have just been internal reorganization. Does that make sense?

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 01:39 PM
Re: New Orleans again?!

It's certainly possible that there has been some erratic motion because of internal reorganization. The NOAA plane that is currently in there earlier reported a fairly large, elliptical eye that was open to the west, so the inner core of the storm is in an unsettled state.

It seems as though that Ike may be growing in size a little bit as well.


Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 01:44 PM
Re: New Orleans again?!

Yes, ther are two missions in Ike and they penetrated the eye nearly at the same time. And the one mission from West to SE flew some a circle in the eye and found 953 hpa. It also found 127 kt flight level wind in the SE eyewall and this is believable, because you can see they extremely violent processes in the SE-E part of the eye in the visible loop on Tropical RAMSDIS. The other flight from NE to SW missed this feature. So very interesting dynamics in the storm right now!
edit: Sorry, confused the directions and missions totally. Mission 4 flew SE-NW through the eye and found the high values in the NW, obviously in the open part of the eye. Is there an explanation for this?


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 01:53 PM
Re: New Orleans again?!

Ike was officially re-upgraded to Cat 3 at the 2pm intermediate advisory, with winds of 115mph. This seems conservative based upon the current recon information (which estimates winds at 119.7mph). Pressure reported at 956 by the latest vortex and this is in the advisory.

Interestingly, the advisory says "Some fluctuations in strength are possible
during the next 48 hours...but Ike is expected to remain a major
hurricane strength during this period." Since Ike is now on the edge of major hurricane strength, this may indicate some strengthening?


pcola
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 06 2008 02:12 PM
Re: New Orleans again?!

go to the store..come back and the gfdl and gfs have shifted west with both aimed at the panhandle...hopefully just another inconsistent model run

Terra
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 06 2008 02:23 PM
Re: New Orleans again?!

Quote:

Quote:

One one hand I am relieved that my own town is now out of Ike's cone, but I am horrified that it seems that New Orleans is again right in the middle of the projected path of the hurricane. Can New Orleans take yet another near miss or hit?




I'm afraid not. Gustav leveled most of the high tension power transmission lines south of I-10.
Many will be without power for another week or two as it is.
Distribution and transmission lines are down in much of SE and S Central Louisiana. Another storm shouldn't do much more damage other than delay repair.
It will cost the evacuees more money to evacuate and the area will lose tourism money and tax money.




The problem, as I see it, is that I believe many New Orleanians are unaware that we are getting closer to being inside of the cone for Ike. Even places that have power may not have cable or internet. Plus, as of this morning, both wwltv.com and nola.com were focused on Gustav restoration. Fox was broadcasting stuff about Ike, and it was on the second page of the Times Picayune, but it's not headline news around here. Couple that with the miss, the problems with re-entry (from the evacuees perspective), and the lack of money after Gustav's evacuation, and this really concerns me.


DWard
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 02:51 PM
Re: Pcola

I hope you are right. Living here in Pensacola.
My fiance' is outside puting the last screws in the front windows for our panels of our house just in case. With both of us working in the medical field, me in an ER and him for a home health care company, it makes times like this tense. He could possibly go in call mode by the middle of next week. There have been many times in the past ( Erin, Opal, Ivan, Dennis) that we have both worked closely with the Medical Shelters that our county sets up. Their company usually provides all of the equipment. It leaves me here usually making most of the home preps by myself. By him doing this today hopefully I will not have to get the prescription for Xanax filled.


Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 02:57 PM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest

So, this is the third time that they found such high values for peak winds in differnt parts of the eyewall. This time it´s 123 kt in th flight level ad 121 kt at the surface. That´s really no transient feature anymore, if such high values exist over hours! Pressure is arounf 951 hPa!
And I also don´t agree about the structure of the storm. It´s quite good outflow in all quadrants. I would expect further intensification of the storm.
The best link for recon data: Recon


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 03:05 PM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest

Cloud tops are definately cooled considerably over the last few hours, although the eye has not yet reappeared. My guess is that the NHC will be very reluctant to upgrade to Cat 4 with the current satellite presentation, but recon reports sure make a convincing case right now.

Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 03:17 PM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest

Yes, will be interesting to see, what the NHC says about it. I think, they will stay with the central pressure and set it to 110 kt or so.
By the wy, CIMSS maps confirm that shear has relaxed considerably.


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 03:23 PM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest

Water vapor imagery, which still showed a fair amount of shear this morning, shows it to be relaxed now as well. We could be entering another phase of rapid intensification, unfortunately. The only thing it's missing is a clearly defined eye.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 03:32 PM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest

There seems to be sufficient evidence now to bump the winds iup to 110-115 kts, even considering the less-than-ideal satellite presentation and inner core organization. If it does finally close off its eye at some point and become more symmetric in the next 24 hours, that will be bad news.

Latest recon has the pressure down to 950mb.


Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 03:32 PM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest

last pass by AF Recon shows a 6mb drop in about an 2 hours... from 956 to 950mb... still open on the west side of the eyewall... G-IV is up from islands... so we should get some good data in tonights runs.

A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 19:06:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°32'N 69°11'W (21.5333N 69.1833W)
B. Center Fix Location: 126 miles (202 km) to the E (88°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,677m (8,783ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 99kts (~ 113.9mph)

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 950mb (28.05 inHg)

L. Eye Character: Open in the west
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 28 nautical miles (32 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 129kts (~ 148.5mph) in the northeast quadrant at 19:12:30Z


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 06 2008 03:32 PM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest

URNT12 KNHC 061927
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 06/19:06:50Z
B. 21 deg 32 min N
069 deg 11 min W
C. 700 mb 2677 m
D. 99 kt
E. 228 deg 13 nm
F. 317 deg 109 kt
G. 228 deg 015 nm
H. 950 mb
I. 10 C/ 3029 m
J. 15 C/ 3046 m
K. 9 C/ NA
L. OPEN W
M. C28
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0409A IKE OB 09
MAX FL WIND 129 KT NE QUAD 19:12:30 Z


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 03:37 PM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest

Quote:

There seems to be sufficient evidence now to bump the winds iup to 110-115 kts, even considering the less-than-ideal satellite presentation and inner core organization. If it does finally close off its eye at some point and become more symmetric in the next 24 hours, that will be bad news.
Latest recon has the pressure down to 950mb.




It looks pretty symmetric right now, to me, just looks less than ideal in terms of not having a nice eye showing up (yet, I'll go ahead of say, given that pressure!). If the trend continues, it will definately be bad news for the Bahamas and the Keys... and points beyond.

Do we know for sure that the G-IV is in the air now?


Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 03:37 PM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest

The other mission penetrated the center shortly after the other. 950 hPa are confirmed and flight level winds with 128 kt too. In the HDOB there had been 118 and 115 kt surface winds. The peaks are in the NE and N- part of the eyewall.
Yes, there is a G-IV in the air. Saw a dropsonde report recently.


Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 04:00 PM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest

That´s the last confirmation for a potent cat. 4 and a significant intensification during the last hours: A dropsonde in the NE- wall reported 124 kt at the surface!

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 04:03 PM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest

well we have missions 03 - 06 going on right now for ike. An AF Recon is now almost due east of Daytona Beach at 30kft droping dropsondes... while the G-IV in north of Ike now droping dropsondes and an AR Recon is flying in Ike right now at 10kft... while the NOAA plane is heading to the base in the islands.. we should have good data for tonights models...

Quote:

That´s the last confirmation for a potent cat. 4 and a significant intensification during the last hours: A dropsonde in the NE- wall reported 124 kt at the surface!




agree... the dropsonde hit 182mph at 827mb (roughly around 4kft above the surface) and showed an avg. of 150mph winds from 3-5kft. **cool to see the GPS Dropsonde traveled about 9.2miles from its launch location til it hit the water** in about 4 mins from launch from 10kft to it hit water 9 miles away


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 06 2008 04:05 PM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest

NE Eyewall Dropsonde
55850 11654 5000ft level 115deg at 154kts
66827 12158 just below 5000ft 120deg at 158kt, 182mph


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 06 2008 04:10 PM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest

Quote:

...we should have good data for tonights models...




That or too much data for the models to ingest.
Here's hoping that the extra data will refine the Cone. To some degree.


Sheeper
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 04:18 PM
Re: New Orleans again?!

having been in the NOLA EOC and working on the city evacuation (but now back home in Florida), the possibility of another storm is of great concern. Many residents now feel like the left for "no good reason"...after all..."nothing happened". Getting people to do this again...in a short amount of time will be tough. And a strong storm will prove a disaster.

For now...it is early and we need to see how much interaction does with Cuba before we can make some solid guess-timates on track. I just hope and pray that people will stay smart but knowing human nature I remain fearful.


kromdog
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 04:20 PM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest

The models have been trending more to the west, however everyone within the cone should keep a close eye on this as things will become more clear over the next couple of days. I hope the "residents" of Key West take the evacuation seriously and head north. The conch republic contains a sturdy bunch but this is no time for a hurricane party on Duval Street.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 04:21 PM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest

Quote:

NE Eyewall Dropsonde
55850 11654 5000ft level 115deg at 154kts
66827 12158 just below 5000ft 120deg at 158kt, 182mph




WOAH... what does that translate to at the surface? 182 mph is.... not pleasant to look at in a recon report, even if it is just below 5,000ft.


KJJAXFL
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 04:23 PM
Re: Hanna Landfall at the SC/NC Border, Ike Going West Southwest

I have a house in marathon and trying to look for models on storm surge potential. Does anyone know and links or sites I can use?

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 06 2008 04:31 PM
Drops

That typically is just above the level of highest winds in a Mature storm.
I would say that would be over 155mph at the surface... BUT this was the NE Eyewall drop.
Fujita F3 or F4 damage level probably.

Flight level wind are reduced at 90% to the surface. Or a rough estimate is to take the flight level wind speed in knots and simply change the knots to mph.
100knots=115 mph x 90%= 103.5mph
140knots =161mph x 90% = 145mph

So the simple rule is not that far off.
158kts = 182mph x 90% = 164 mph

6 mph above the simple rule. But at 160mph it won't make a great deal of difference.


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 04:35 PM
Re: Drops

so, if I'm understanding you correctly, the hurricane that the NHC last reported was a minimal Cat 3, is now a Cat 5? (164mph winds at the surface in the NE eyewall would seem to be sufficient for an upgrade to Cat 5, wouldn't it?)

5pm is now out... it's back up to 135 officially...


pcbjr
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 05:02 PM
Re: Drops

So, it seems Naples to the Big Bend is getting more and more out of the picture; any reason to suspect the NHC might be too far west at 5:00 PM?

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 05:05 PM
Re: Drops

Quote:

So, it seems Naples to the Big Bend is getting more and more out of the picture; any reason to suspect the NHC might be too far west at 5:00 PM?




The current 5-day cone stretches from just south of Miami, through the Gulf Coast, all the way over to west of New Orleans. Anyone along Florida's Gulf Coast is still well in the picture.


Mag
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 05:18 PM
Re: Drops

Hey Everyone, Myself , just like everyone else that lives on the east coast ... <snip by moderator redingtonbeachguy>

edit by mod -- let's try to stay focused please.



JulieTampa
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 05:27 PM
Re: Drops

When is the European model going to come out with its next run? It seemed to know about the more southerly, GOM path before the other models, and I remember some people saying it has a good record this season. And where can weI get access to that model run?

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 06 2008 05:31 PM
OOPS

URNT12 KNHC 062124
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092008
A. 06/21:05:40Z
B. 21 deg 31 min N
069 deg 31 min W
C. 700 mb 2658 m
D. 111 kt
E. 320 deg 016 nm
F. 054 deg 112 kt
G. 320 deg 020 nm
H. 949 mb
I. 12 C/ 3055 m
J. 17 C/ 3044 m
K. 5 C/ NA
L. OPEN NNE
M. C28
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 0409A IKE OB 15
MAX FL WIND 129 KT NE QUAD 19:12:30 Z
EYEWALL NEARLY CLOSED


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 05:34 PM
Re: OOPS

The latest AVN image shows the eye beginning to reappear, although cloud tops appear to have cool significantly over the last few hours.
Ike is definately sending out mixed signals this afternoon.


Texas Cane Tracker
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 05:40 PM
Re: Drops


Yes, the euro has been predicting a track much further to the west and south than the other models for some time now. You can access this site by using the web address below.


http://www.ecmwf.int/


Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 05:46 PM
Re: Drops

The latest ECMWF (Euro) solution would be exceptionally unusual (paralleling the Gulf Coast to the SW and then the S all the way from LA into Mexico), but it is one of the better performing models. While the specific solution may be unlikely, it suggests that steering could become erratic if Ike does not get completely captured by the next trough. That is still way in the future, though.

smorse22
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 05:54 PM
Re: Drops

Quote:

The latest ECMWF (Euro) solution would be exceptionally unusual (paralleling the Gulf Coast to the SW and then the S all the way from LA into Mexico), but it is one of the better performing models. While the specific solution may be unlikely, it suggests that steering could become erratic if Ike does not get completely captured by the next trough. That is still way in the future, though.





Isn't there trough coming down from the gulf that is supposed to interact with Ike?

Also, the weather channel continues to say that they believe that there will be a right hand turn once in the gulf. Any comments?


WPB Ken
(Registered User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 06:30 PM
Re: Drops

Quote:

snips
I had a crazy idea.

Here is the theory. The news media knew that hurricane ike was going to go south of florida long before they reported it because as long as they keep reporting that a major hurricane is going to hit florida then people will keep tuning in to their stations and giving them better ratings.
snips
so what does everybody think about that??

I dont know, call me crazy, but in a way, it kinda makes sense.




I'll have to call you crazy. I've been in the ink-slinging business since the middle 60s and we're not that smart. TV and the web sites love storms because they DO drive eyeballs, but the media doesn't have a better crystal ball than NHC.

I know.

I chased 13 hurricanes and misjudged landfall in all of them. Of course, that was before The Weather Channel and the wall-to-wall tracking info we have today. Back then, you'd look at the weather reports, hop a plane or jump in a car and head to your best guess.

NASA, on the other hand, MIGHT have had better guessers. After all, they DO deal in Rocket Science.


flahurricane
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 07:07 PM
Re: Drops

I understand the satellite images are not a good source to go by. But recent images look like the eye is reforming northwest of the tropical prediction points. It appears to be jogging more the the west than southwest as it was last night.

smorse22
(Verified CFHC User)
Sat Sep 06 2008 07:19 PM
Re: Drops

I agree. Seems to be moving more west. Here is a link.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html


kromdog
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 07:25 PM
Re: Drops

There is a trough coming down that may weaken the high and allow IKE to turn more to the north. I believe this is why the weather channel has been looking at the west coast of Forida. Not sure the models are picking this up to a great extent at this point. There are still a lot of variables involved and everyone located in the cone should pay close attention over the next couple of days.

Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 07:28 PM
Re: Drops

Models seem to have shifted back to the east again....
Actually the GFDL seems to point Ike right at me!
Also looks like Ike is continuing to strengthen.


flahurricane
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 07:29 PM
Re: Drops

Hugh where do you see the lastest models? Thanks

Quote:

Models seem to have shifted back to the east again....
Actually the GFDL seems to point Ike right at me!
Also looks like Ike is continuing to strengthen.




Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Sat Sep 06 2008 07:41 PM
Re: Drops

Next center fix of Mission 4: 944 hPa, 110-115 kt. There is still a slight southward component in the westward movement.

Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Sep 06 2008 07:54 PM
Re: Drops

Vortex Recon: 947mb, not 944, per dropsonde (944 was via HDOB estimate, and dropsonde found it slightly higher).

Also, 115kt FL wind max; 114kt surface winds. No reduction.

--RC


Hugh
(Senior Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 07:58 PM
Re: Drops

I guess the GFDL I was looking at was 12z even though it was label 2pm on Weather Underground because the FSU site now has the 18z and it turns the storm west off the coast south of Louisiana.

RedingtonBeachGuy
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 06 2008 07:59 PM
Re: Drops

Quote:

Hugh where do you see the lastest models? Thanks




You can see them here. But don't get too wrapped up in anything except the NHC cone.


BillD
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Sep 06 2008 09:17 PM
Attachment
Re: Drops

I'm sure some of you already know about this, but if you have a desktop that has the horsepower to run Google Earth, you need to check this out. Go here http://hhrecon.com/recon/ and grab "Live Recon Data in Google Earth". You have to have Google Earth installed. I've attached a clip of recon mission 4 for Ike.

Bill


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 09:50 PM
Re: Drops

It's time to chill out about the GOM.This system is still well SE of Florida.It is gaining strength and slowing down.Let's see what the next 12 hrs holds.A little jog to the north and things change.If you go back a couple of days when it was forecast to hit SE Florida,it is STILL on that track,the rest is up in the air.Large strong canes can have a mind of their own.An all clear for SE Florida can not be made until maybe Sunday night.This is not wishcasting,it is common sence.Look at the latest radar,and then look at Florida,things can change quickly.Notice they have Hurricane warnings north west of the storm,in the central bahamas.

danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Sat Sep 06 2008 09:59 PM
Re: Drops

Big question tonight is ...
Will the extra data ingest from all of the RECON and Research aircraft give a better idea on the future track of Ike.

Cone of Certainty is currently from Vermillion Bay, LA to Key West, FL. That's a lot of beach frontage and more than four times the last Evacuation out of Louisiana.
I hope that everyone in the current Cone has things ready to make the trip to a safe haven, shelter or the like for the coming week. House and home repair can be accomplished after a Storm. But they still haven't mastered Human repair after a Storm. When you have to go... GO !


kromdog
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:08 PM
Re: Drops

I agree. The current models appear to all stop at a point in the GOM where like the scarecrow in the Wizard of Oz had to make a decision. Which way do I go! Only time will tell!

doug
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:08 PM
Re: Drops

I have not seen the southward component in the motion now for several hours. I think the flow is much more zonal now than this morning and the strengthening is a sign the northerly shear and steering is lessened. However, that being said I don't see anything that will turn it although the motion off the western tip of Cuba seems to be S-N. Locakl met is saying right now that the high to the north of Fla will keep Ike to the west and then it will go north off the western tip of Cuba into a weakness and then back to the west as the high reestablishes itself...go figure.

CDMOrlando
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 10:08 PM
Re: Drops

Quote:

Big question tonight is ...
Will the extra data ingest from all of the RECON and Research aircraft give a better idea on the future track of Ike.




Based on a comparison of the data that was sampled and what was expected (see NHC analysis the ridge to the northwest of Ike is weaker than what was expected. If this weakness is enought to make a material change we will need to wait to see.


BillD
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:19 PM
Re: Drops

Can you elaborate a little? What do you mean by "data that was sampled" and how it compares to the graphic you referenced? And can you provide a reference to the data? I'm not disagreeing with you, but it would be helpful to those reading this to know what was behind your statement.

Bill


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:21 PM
Re: Drops

Good comment on priorities. The GOM is in play for the end game but for the short term it has to tangle with Cuba it seems. Personally I think it might move along the north coast and not as far inland as there has been less and less a southward component and a few bobbles of the eye that looked like it wants to pull just enough north of west sooner rather than later and spare the length and breath of the island. However, with cat 4 storms the eye wobbles, it breathes sort of and the shape changes and what can look like a wobble wnw could only be the eye blinking or a part of an eye wall replacement cycle.

The last several frames look like just south of due west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/sloop-avn.html

Longer loops look WSW

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-avn.html

I agree with a few people that said a slow down over Cuba could cause a sharper turn into the GOM later. Hadn't thought that much on it but yes that makes sense.

So speed, forward speed not just wind speed will make all the difference.

Key West is VERY far west, which may sound redundant but needs repeating so it has a long ways to go before it gets closer and so it's harder to tell where it will be that far down the cone.


stormchazer
(Storm Tracker)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:22 PM
Re: Drops

I wonder are you refering to the Gulfstream data from the sampling down this late afternoon and evening by the Gulfstream Mission. I understand that it should be going into the models tonight.

Thunderbird12
(Meteorologist)
Sat Sep 06 2008 11:31 PM
Re: Drops

It will be a couple of hours until the next plane gets in there, but Ike's satellite presentation continues to improve, so it is likely continuing to intensify. The Turks and Caicos Islands, particularly Grand Turk Island, will be receiving a very serious blow from Ike in the next few hours. Hopefully everyone is out of harm's way.

flahurricane
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 07 2008 12:54 AM
Re: Drops

The models seem to be tightly clustered in the central GOM. The models did very well with Gustav before and after it entered the Gulf, so I tend to trust them with Ike. I think the main issue will be forward speed. That will be the key factor in Ike's landfall destination. Slower forward speed would cause more of a threat to the east Gulf, where a faster speed would threaten the western Gulf.

ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 07 2008 01:11 AM
Re: Drops

Quote:

The models seem to be tightly clustered in the central GOM. The models did very well with Gustav before and after it entered the Gulf, so I tend to trust them with Ike. I think the main issue will be forward speed. That will be the key factor in Ike's landfall destination. Slower forward speed would cause more of a threat to the east Gulf, where a faster speed would threaten the western Gulf.




The NHC was right on on their long term forecast for Gus,But they also had it missing Jamaica,and it went over the top of Jamaica.Point is,just a little wooble north and all bets are off.


flahurricane
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 07 2008 01:19 AM
Re: Drops

Quote:

Quote:

The models seem to be tightly clustered in the central GOM. The models did very well with Gustav before and after it entered the Gulf, so I tend to trust them with Ike. I think the main issue will be forward speed. That will be the key factor in Ike's landfall destination. Slower forward speed would cause more of a threat to the east Gulf, where a faster speed would threaten the western Gulf.




The NHC was right on on their long term forecast for Gus,But they also had it missing Jamaica,and it went over the top of Jamaica.Point is,just a little wooble north and all bets are off.





I was referring to the spaghetti models, not NHC official forcast, which were tightly clustered days before Gustav hit LA.


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 07 2008 01:33 AM
Re: Drops

www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

Tell me this is not heading almost due west.Look at Florida,and look at Ike,right now this is still more of a concern for south Florida than the gulf,just for the fact it is so much closer to Florida.


flahurricane
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 07 2008 01:36 AM
Re: Drops

Quote:

www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html

Tell me this is not heading almost due west.Look at Florida,and look at Ike,right now this is still more of a concern for south Florida than the gulf,just for the fact it is so much closer to Florida.




Looks as though it is back on the forecasts points and once again moving west-south-west. I think the east coast of Florida is in the clear from a direct hit if this motion continues.


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 07 2008 01:47 AM
Re: Drops

he is going west.. due west to the naked eye which can see down into his naked eye that is wide, big and easy to track

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/sloop-avn.html

sorry that is west...

west was on the table just this more west movement began around 7...

eyes always bobble and he has a big eye..easy to see deep into

please remember they move the forecast points every so many hours ...4 hours into it ... so at the start of the loop it looks always dead on..and then you can double check it later...

and good point..very good..they never saw jamaica coming...

funny part is though that once done with jamaica it went back exactly to it's old path

they are good with track
then again last night around this time there was a different cone

guess we are not big believers with cones as they are meant to be moved and adjusted..


flahurricane
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 07 2008 02:14 AM
Re: Drops

Quote:

he is going west.. due west to the naked eye which can see down into his naked eye that is wide, big and easy to track

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/sloop-avn.html

sorry that is west...

west was on the table just this more west movement began around 7...

eyes always bobble and he has a big eye..easy to see deep into

please remember they move the forecast points every so many hours ...4 hours into it ... so at the start of the loop it looks always dead on..and then you can double check it later...

and good point..very good..they never saw jamaica coming...

funny part is though that once done with jamaica it went back exactly to it's old path

they are good with track
then again last night around this time there was a different cone

guess we are not big believers with cones as they are meant to be moved and adjusted..




No. Not due west. Those satellite pictures can be deceiving!

As of 2am:

IKE IS MOVING ON A MOTION JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/HR. A WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TODAY WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY.


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Sep 07 2008 02:20 AM
Re: Drops

yes the 2 am came out...

the nhc likes to try and verify an older forecast, it is the way it works...

and they don't like to jump on temporary jogs...they are very cautious which is good

but there is very little southern component

the plane should be there by now.. and advisories are not written in real time... they are written before, set up, released..its a process

will see what the 5 am brings.. going to bed, enjoy reading your discussion, everyone's thoughts at this late hour but rarely do you see a storm here

wondering here if...

he is slowing down, any slow down in forward movement might be more impt than a few bobbles s or n as it may mean there is a weakness in the high... if he keeps barreling west than not..

and wondering if he is really a bit stronger waiting for recon.. id think he's more like 140 but whats 5 mph..

what an eye... easy enough to follow
amazing storm

nite, thanks


flahurricane
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 07 2008 02:33 AM
Re: Drops

Quote:

yes the 2 am came out...

the nhc likes to try and verify an older forecast, it is the way it works...

.. and advisories are not written in real time... they are written before, set up, released..its a process






Not sure I entirely agree with you but the recon plane is in the storm now so we should get some good info.

night


flahurricane
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 07 2008 02:39 AM
Re: Drops

Looks like they were in the Eye at 21.133N 71.600W. Extrapolated surface pressure 944.8 mb. Winds calm.

Thats a reduction of 3mb since 2am advisory.


Genesis
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 07 2008 02:53 AM
Re: Drops

Just got a vortex, 947mb right over the southern edge of the Caicos reef, SW of Cockburn town.

Highest winds I've seen so far have been right around 100kts, but it doesn't look like they've got the strongest winds in the windfield sampled yet..... (watching Mission 07 here)

That would support Cat 3 intensity from the pressure.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 06:42Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 307)
Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2008
Storm Name: Ike (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 7
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 6:25:50Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 21°09'N 71°37'W (21.15N 71.6167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 38 miles (61 km) to the SW (235°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,624m (8,609ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 86kts (~ 99.0mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ESE (116°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 213° at 105kts (From between the SSW and SW at ~ 120.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the ESE (116°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.96 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed Wall
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 23 nautical miles (26 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 118 KT NW QUAD 06:31:30Z


Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 07 2008 02:55 AM
Re: Drops

The vortex data message says: 947 hPa; 118 kt max. flight level wind; circular, closed eye
So it´s in a steady state with a movement nearly straight to the west.


flahurricane
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sun Sep 07 2008 03:04 AM
Re: Drops

I'm surprised thats the lowest pressure and strongest winds they could find. Ike looks very impressive on satellite! Very large eye.

Raymond
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 07 2008 04:00 AM
Re: Drops

Latest modell runs (should have ingested some of the recon data!?): All dynamical modells (the GFDL´s, HWRF, NOGAPS, except the GFS), show the nothward component to the westward motion to begin sooner, so that Ike stays more to the northern side of Cuba. The GFS sends Ike to the southern side. In the later forecast periond in the central gulf all modells (exept the NOGAPs, which send Ike straight NW to New Orleans) turn the storm from NW back to the WNW and send the storm to Texas. So Florida (except the Keys) is a bit out of the focus for the moment.
Is there a good source for the ECMWF-runs?
edit: Found a good source for the ECMWF with interesting comparison to GFS: ECMWF
So the ECMWF follows the general trend and sends the storm to texas.

Newest Center Fix: Nothing new. Data show a strong cat. 3 with 946 hPa central pressure. Movement straight west between the last two center fixes.


dolfinatic
(Weather Guru)
Sun Sep 07 2008 04:04 AM
Re: Drops

Actually the 11:00 advisory had him at 21.2 north and the 2:00 advisory has him at 21.3 north that is actually slightly north of west


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