MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 08:34 AM |
Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Hurricane Watches are up for the Keys, and a full evacuation is going on there. See here for more information.
Hurricane Ike is fast approaching Great Inagua island in the Bahamas, the island is mostly unpopulated except for Matthew Town on the southwest side with approximately 1000 people. Ike will likely move over this community with the full force of a Category 4 hurricane. After this it should approach Cuba, and the current track has it exiting near Havana. It is expected to weaken to a Category 1 hurricane by the time it gets there, however. After it exits Cuba the lower keys may see some outer fringe effects from the system as it moves into the Central Gulf.
Because of the uncertainty, the Florida Keys have mandatory evacuations for visitors.
Ike Microwave imagery (MIMIC) (More MIMIC)
Monroe County Emergency Bulletins (Florida Keys)
Florida County Emergency Management Websites
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Southeastern US Radar Mosaic
{{radarlink|tbw|Tampa Bay, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|byx|Key West, FL Radar}}
{{radarlink|amx|Miami FL Radar}}
If Cuba disrupts the core, Ike would have a hard time reforming (similar to Gustav). If it does not, it is likely to again strengthen into a major hurricane. The NHc is thinking restrengthening will take a while after it approaches Cuba.
Some of the guidance models are suggesting more of a threat to Texas this time around, but others have started to move more eastward into the Gulf, including the Florida Panhandle. This means the entire cone should be watching this, which would unfortunately include the Florida Keys (which will likely at least see some minor effects from the storm and may have watches/warnings issued), and in the Florida Panhandle westward all the way to Corpus Christi Texas. At the foretasted rate of movement it would not near the Gulf Shores until Saturday or Sunday of next week, which means there is a lot that could change before now and then. If the models start moving more north or east (some of them this morning have), then forget all this. In other words the entire Gulf should monitor Ike, including all of Florida and Mexico.
Watch model trends to get a feel of the general direction, but not of the eventual landfall point, and take the National Hurricane Center's track over all.
Hanna is extra tropical now, and back in the sea, It is expected to affect Nova Scotia in Canada, however.
The remnant of Josephine are still being watched for redevelopment, but it's not likely. And there is nothing else in the Tropics to really watch at the moment.
Color Sat of Gulf
Cuba Mosaic radar recording of Ike Approach
{{StormCarib}}
Caribbean Islands Weather Reports
{{StormLinks|Hanna|08|8|2008|2|Hanna}}
{{StormLinks|Ike|09|9|2008|4|Ike}}
| smorse22 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 08:55 AM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inauga, Hanna Extratropical
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I live on the west coast of Florida. I now see that we are out of the cone. The weather channel yesterday was talking about a high that might seperate and make Ike come up the west coast of Florida. Do you believe that this is still a possiblity?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 09:02 AM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inauga, Hanna Extratropical
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It's possible, but if your talking about right along the west coast then maybe 20% @ this time. West coast getting some Tropical Storm force gusts about 1/3 chance. Things can change, but I wouldnt worry about it right now unless you live in the Keys!
| RU12 |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 10:40 AM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inauga, Hanna Extratropical
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The latest model runs at the FSU website appear to be trending back towards the east so I wouldn't write off any area until the COC has passed to the west of it. Even then there's the chance of a loop de loop as we observed with Hanna. I don't think anyone on the Gulf Coast is entirely out of the woods yet.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 10:47 AM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inauga, Hanna Extratropical
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They dont look like they are going back to the east. Lets see what the 12z run gives us on the GFDL and GFS.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 10:53 AM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inauga, Hanna Extratropical
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Let's see what is left of Ike after it goes past Cuba. Until that happens, anything beyond the interaction with Cuba is a guess at best. Models were forecast significant strengthening with Gustav after it went past Cuba, and the intensification never happened. The 5-day track still has a huge margin of error. If you're in the cone, you need to watch Ike. Even if you're no longer in the cone, I'd still recommend watching it, because each time the models change back and forth, the cone changes too. Yesterday, all of Florida was in the cone. Today, hardly any of the state is in the cone. Tomorrow, it could change again. We won't know until we get closer to the storm approaching, at least until it gets into the Gulf clear of Cuba.
| vineyardsaker |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 10:57 AM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Quote:
Some of the guidance models are suggesting more of a threat to Texas this time around, but others have started to move more eastward into the Gulf, including the Florida Panhandle.
Which ones are these? All the models at Skeetobite seem to be pointing towards Texas. Where can I see the models you are referring to?
Thanks
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 11:02 AM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Quote:
Which ones are these? All the models at Skeetobite seem to be pointing towards Texas. Where can I see the models you are referring to?
The HWRF and NOGAPS on Weather Underground's page are both trending northward... with NOGAPS pinpointing New Orleans and HWRF eyeing the Florida Panhandle. The 5am discussion specifically mentions the HWRF, but discounts it as an outlier.
| RU12 |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 11:04 AM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Go to the URL below and run the latest run each model.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
No one on the Gulf Coast should let their guard down yet.
| flahurricane |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 11:28 AM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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I guess time will tell how strong the trough is. If it is as predicted and doesn't cause much weakening in the ridge the westward motion will continue. If its stronger than anticipated it could create a weakness in the ridge that would allow a more northward motion.
| CDMOrlando |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 11:32 AM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008
A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 93W/94W S OF 23N. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH HAS INCREASED OVERNIGHT AND NOW SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SE MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ WHICH IS REPORTING LIGHT TO MODERATE.
Anyone have any idea how any futher development of this area will effect Ike
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 11:44 AM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Well here's the factor that we are all looking @. First thing First, does IKE move west longer and thru most of Cuba and exit near 81W or does just interact with Cuba along the north coast and move out moreso near 78-79W? Further north will have greatest impact on the Keys. 1st course would bring Tropical Storm force conditions to the Keys. 2nd course would bring a major Hurricane to the Keys. Now the 1st course might take it near 25N and 85W, 2nd near 25N and 83W, just 2dg will make a big difference in not only affecting the Keys, but also Floridas west coast and most importantly here, the future movement.
Now with that said, let me give you a reasoning. First we do believe the first trough will bypass IKE. If IKE takes his slightly southern course above, then he might want to tend further west before a 2nd trough comes down and pushes IKE north into LA (Biloxi MS-Upper TX coast). Or what we might see happen is the 2nd course would make IKE stall in the eastern GOM with weak steering currents around 26N and 84-85W meander for a day before the 2nd trough picks him up and take IKE North and NNE towards the NE Gulf from there-Biloxi. Another words there are 2 scenerios. I dont see how IKE will miss both them troughs and make it to a area south of Galveston, TX. I wont say it wont happen, but just dont see it this time of year.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 11:56 AM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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I just don't see Ike going more south than he is now.
http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html
Even going west he tangles with cuba and friction alone should slow him down at least 3 or 4mph and he is already slowing down as evidenced by the most recent advisory..
so... that being the case...
i don't see how he takes the bottom of the cone
he is bottom heavy now.. his moisture is to the south not the north except for one long far away band
note carefully the moisture that blew up in the BOC and is moving east and then gets shunted back in the flow to the west
showers from that moisture not ike are visible on long range key west radar
if ike slows... does the high begin to break down.. ???
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 12:07 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Timing will mean everything, but something else to consider, that was mentioned awhile back but has not been mentioned with Ike. More powerful hurricanes typically are more likely to move poleward. So this would tend to result in more of a threat to the central Gulf than to Texas. I don't know or understand the mechanics behind it, though.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 12:14 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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or Alabama... or NW florida...
somehow the poleward arguement would be that any weakness and it would grab it
texas would i think be no weakness
a lot depends on cuba
if it tangles with cuba head on its a weaker storm
if it for some reason misses and slides along the north coast and the straits it could intensify into a stronger storm
bath tub water in the straits
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 12:29 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Perhaps the models are thinking interaction with Cuba is going to literally rip Ike apart, and there won't be much left to get pulled up by a trough?
That could explain why they are all now forecasting the hurricane to miss the trough, although it's suspect until the interaction with Cuba actually occurs.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 12:57 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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I am beginning to think that nothing is going to influence Ike's path into the GOM.
However his size continues to grow.
| pcola |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 01:02 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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quick question...a 12z model run means that it was run with data that is 5 hours old, correct, since 12z runs come out at 17Z time...just making sure
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 01:08 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Quote:
I am beginning to think that nothing is going to influence Ike's path into the GOM.
However his size continues to grow.
Nothing influence Ike's path? Not even the high? That seems unlikely...
Or do you mean that the trough won't influence it?
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 01:49 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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If the 0Z runs tonight show IKE staying below 23N and 83W then this will most likely stay far enough south for a impact in the NW GOM later this week or next weekend.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 01:58 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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And here Ike is:
http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/realt...1151500.1km.jpg
Not a top view, but still a good view. MODIS Terra satellite, at 15:10Z today.
| hurricane expert |
| (Really Not an Expert) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 03:15 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Well it sure looks like ike is moving alittle more wnw now ???? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rgb.html
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 03:16 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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I keep thinking of that track of the 1900 storm for some reason.
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1900/index.html
or the 1979 season with the strong high
but none of these storms moved wsw to get here and I really would like some analog storms that show a dip down and then across cuba
anyone?
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 03:21 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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New recon mission in: 950 hpa, 107 kt max flight level wind in a E to NW pass of the center (circular, closed eye). Net movement over 7 hours is straight to the west, but looking on satellite you see a northward component for the last 1-2 hours since he left Great Inauga. Let´s see, if this continues!
12 UTC Modell runs: GFDL stays consistent and sends him to eastern Texas, GFS stays consistent with central Texas, NOGAPS shifts to the Panhandle.
| rmiller1031 |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 03:23 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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I thought the same thing looking at this... http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html Is it possibly a wobble or could this be the turn that most of you have been forecasting?
Rick
| Bev |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 03:32 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Quote:
...
but none of these storms moved wsw to get here and I really would like some analog storms that show a dip down and then across cuba
anyone?
I think Kate and Baker would be the closest equivalents for the track you seek, although neither originated near Ike, both made southward dips near Cuba.
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 03:35 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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And HWRF shifts to a cat. 3 into Mississippi/ Alabama. HWRF, GFDL and GFS track Ike all to the south coast of Cuba and then to the central gulf with the biggest difference late in the runs. There GFDL and GFS shift more westward, but HWRF stays straight NW or even more NNW.
This is better then all words: Tracks
| flahurricane |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 04:15 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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do you think we are now seeing just a wobble to the north? It will be very interesting to see if this motion continues.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-rb.html
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 04:19 PM |
| Attachment |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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There is a definite wnw component...how long it will last is anyones guess. This has thrown Ike off the NHC forecast points currently. I have graphic attached. For those in the Keys...this is NOT good news if this motion continues. I find it odd that the models shifted south and this northward component is happening. Is it possible that Hanna's departure is somehow exerting some northward pull on Ike?
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 04:49 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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But the last two center fixes say: movement straight to the west during the last two hours!
Pressure dropes to 945 hPa and the real news: two concentric eyewalls with 16 nm and 48 nm!
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 04:50 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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I don't see any reason to doubt the NHC's path right now, it's still going to move mostly west, right now it's probably wobbling a bit more south and then north, but generally due west. It should eventually slow down and more west northwest.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 04:56 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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wobbling a bit more south? I don't see any southward movement at all.
It appears to me that the storm missed the current location a bit to the north.... and the it will have to turn left quite a bit to make the forecast track, but anything is possible.
| AdvAutoBob |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 05:00 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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I noticed that when I refreshed the AVN loop, the forecast points were adjusted a little more northward (making it appear Ike was closer to the closest forecast track point rather than earlier missing it to the north), or am I imagining things?
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 05:11 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Quote:
I noticed that when I refreshed the AVN loop, the forecast points were adjusted a little more northward (making it appear Ike was closer to the closest forecast track point rather than earlier missing it to the north), or am I imagining things?
They adjusted the track when the new track came out at 5pm ET.. but it looks to me like it's already off that track... maybe it's the overlays on the satellite.
| jf |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 05:13 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Quote:
I noticed that when I refreshed the AVN loop, the forecast points were adjusted a little more northward (making it appear Ike was closer to the closest forecast track point rather than earlier missing it to the north), or am I imagining things?
The points were adjusted to the north and it appears as though the NHC has new start points based upon the 5:00PM Bulletin.
| chase 22 |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 05:15 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Quote:
I noticed that when I refreshed the AVN loop, the forecast points were adjusted a little more northward (making it appear Ike was closer to the closest forecast track point rather than earlier missing it to the north), or am I imagining things?
You are not imagining anything. I saw that as well. And as far as a Southern "wobble" Mike, I sure don't see one and haven't seen one in quite a while. If anything, Ike is taking the Northern periphery of the cone right now.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 05:15 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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They change the points after every advisory so you can only see a variation from the points after about 2 hours starts.
Something is off here. I trust the NHC. They have been good but remember one t hing.. look at the picture to the left of the board that flhurricane has up of Ike's path.
See the cone.
Notice that wnw movement IS in the cone... the top part of the cone would be wnw so if it does start a real movment and not a visible wobble than they can say it's still on track
because... its a cone not a railroad track
it doesn't have to jump the track if it goes a bit to the north..they allow that there
so.............................. wait for 8pm, keep watching and remember even though the models go west the cone allows for wnw movement
hope that made sense
| Myles |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 05:32 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Ike's eye appears to be doing circles inside it's outer eye wall and throwing off our sense of direction - since he's now jogged back west and southwest after wobbling to the northwest earlier. I remember Wilma in '05 doing the same thing as she went through an ERC - except more pronounced since she had such a small eye. Ike's short-term direction will difficult to determine while he continues to do circles. Heck, on SSD loops I can't even tell his overall direction with such wild changes in eye movement. On longer loops the overall direction appears just north of west, but the current direction is really up in the air.
| jf |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 05:39 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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When looking at the sat images if you apply the LAT/LONG settings you can see that IKE is moving WNW and will again be north of the NHC plot points. If this direction continues for several hours will the cone be moved ?
| doug |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 05:39 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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the thing about direction is that it is determined over hours of observations. In this instance IKE is now due west of where he was before Great Anagua. He wobbled just south of west over the island ( it was actually just south of 21N) and then back north of west and now due west..average direction is west. A few more hours of that and he'll be on the northeast coast of Cuba.
| JonB |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 06:00 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Quote:I
the thing about direction is that it is determined over hours of observations. In this instance IKE is now due west of where he was before Great Anagua. He wobbled just south of west over the island ( it was actually just south of 21N) and then back north of west and now due west..average direction is west. A few more hours of that and he'll be on the northeast coast of Cuba.
I agree. It looks like wobbles to me. Ike appears to be heading west on SAT loop. I am sure there will be fluctuations in movement as is common in these storms. A general trend is what to look for. If Ike trends wsw or w and then wobbles north and back west it is not a change just a bobble. I would say three to four consistent model runs for a trend in direction.
| Colleen A. |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 06:30 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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I'm sorry...I disagree...I have been watching these "wobbles" and to me it appears that Ike is trying to move in a different direction. Not sure where...and you can call me out if I'm wrong..but I think if Ike keeps on his current track, there is no way that he will track all the way through Cuba. Just my own eyes...which have been watching storms for a long time.
Remember...every "cone" is only good for 3 days...and can change at any time.
Not an alarmist post, just a realistic one.
| JonB |
| (Registered User) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 06:41 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Quote:
I'm sorry...I disagree...I have been watching these "wobbles" and to me it appears that Ike is trying to move in a different direction. Not sure where...and you can call me out if I'm wrong..but I think if Ike keeps on his current track, there is no way that he will track all the way through Cuba. Just my own eyes...which have been watching storms for a long time.
Remember...every "cone" is only good for 3 days...and can change at any time.
Not an alarmist post, just a realistic one.
Watch the sat http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/loop-vis.html. It wobbles nw then N then tracks back west. again you need a trend and the last update verified as due west. I would take the NHC over any other weather forecast out there. The general direction is definitely west.
| kromdog |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 06:47 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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For now it does look west. But if you keep this "stairstep pattern" up over time, you ultimately will end up more north.
| smorse22 |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 06:51 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Colleen,
I will have to agree with you. I'm not a expert but have noticed throughout the day that Ike is trying to go in a different direction. Seems to be moving alittle NW. The Weather channel says that Ike should pass just north of Cuba. We will have to watch this one carefully.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 07:10 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Quote:
Colleen,
I will have to agree with you. I'm not a expert but have noticed throughout the day that Ike is trying to go in a different direction. Seems to be moving alittle NW. The Weather channel says that Ike should pass just north of Cuba. We will have to watch this one carefully.
The Weather Channel actually said something DIFFERENT than the official NHC forecast???
Interesting...
I'm not sure one way or the other if it will actually make landfall over Cuba, but I do think it will go north of the official forecast, in general.
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 07:32 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Ike took a slight jog to the north after leaving Great Inagua, but has resumed an almost due west motion since then. It is only a few hours away from the coast of Cuba based on its current motion, though at the angle it is taking relative the coastline, it may take a while longer before the entire eyewall makes landfall.
The concentric eyewall structure reported in the last vortex message is still apparent in the double wind maxima reported in the lastest HDOBs from the NOAA plane. So while Ike has been deepening in the last few hours, the max winds will not respond until the eyewall cycle is complete. Ike may make landfall with the double eyewall, leading to less intense winds right near the center (compared to a comparable storm with a single eyewall) but a broader swath of potential cat 2-3 winds away from the center.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 07:35 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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The track does seem to be trending on the northern side of the cone at the moment. Probably the biggest implication of this would be less time over Cuba and may be in better shape than currently forecast. Not sure it will be that big of a diff in the long term track, though.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 08:03 PM |
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why this is a possible problem
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Look at the cone.. one solution has Ike staying just offshore and sliding wnw through the Florida Straits
Goes back to timing and something Ed said a while back..
IF it goes over Cuba, friction slows it down and it comes off weaker. It could more further north if a weakness appears later rather than sooner but it would be a weaker storm.
IF it rides the far right side of the cone... stays over water it will stay stronger, come in to the Lower Keys/Straits faster and as a much stronger storm.
Bands of weather would spread across the Florida Keys FASTER and they would get stronger storms than they would if he was dawdling down on Cuba headed west towards Havana.
so.. timing is a problem as a sooner storm would be a stronger storm
a slower storm would be a weaker storm
I think.
Remember... it is totally within their forecast for Ike to ride the white line on the right of the cone and come off being within the forecast
..... watch the whole cone...
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 08:06 PM |
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Re: why this is a possible problem
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Ok...I'm a bit confused.
SFMR found 119kt surface winds. Dropsonde found 120kt surface winds in a different area. All of this within the last hour or so.
Why does the NHC still have Ike at a Category 3 per 8pm advisory? Those readings are both into Cat 4, which starts at 114kts.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 08:11 PM |
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Re: why this is a possible problem
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Quote:
Ok...I'm a bit confused.
SFMR found 119kt surface winds. Dropsonde found 120kt surface winds in a different area. All of this within the last hour or so.
Why does the NHC still have Ike at a Category 3 per 8pm advisory? Those readings are both into Cat 4, which starts at 114kts.
Maybe they didn't get the info in time to include it in the 8pm advisory? The satellite presentation did seem to indicate a Cat 4 rather than a Cat 3 until 2315, but that was before the advisory time, so maybe it weakened right before the advisory, would be another possibility?
| ftlaudbob |
| (Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 08:52 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Quote:
The track does seem to be trending on the northern side of the cone at the moment. Probably the biggest implication of this would be less time over Cuba and may be in better shape than currently forecast. Not sure it will be that big of a diff in the long term track, though.
It would make a big difference to S Florida.LOL.This is going to be an all nighter.
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MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 09:03 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Quote:Quote:
The track does seem to be trending on the northern side of the cone at the moment. Probably the biggest implication of this would be less time over Cuba and may be in better shape than currently forecast. Not sure it will be that big of a diff in the long term track, though.
It would make a big difference to S Florida.LOL.This is going to be an all nighter.
No reason, there is almost no chance the center of Ike can directly affect south Florida (not including the western Keys). The storm is moving west at 14MPH. There is a bit of dryness on the southwest side of the storm along with an eyewall replacement cycle attempting to get going, this makes in more vulnerable to negative factors... Thus the land interaction that will probably take a lot of the punch out of Ike when it gets over Cuba,... and unfortunately it will tear up parts of Cuba as it moves westward.
Ike is on the NHC track, and still moving due west and wobbling both north and south of due west. It looks like it'll be dead on for the next 8-12 hours or so.
Florida is going to miss the worst of it, (Keys will see some effects as it will get pretty close), but the cone at large is off of Florida for good reason I think. Points west, Louisiana or Texas are still the most likely, but there is a good way to go to determine that. Mexico isn't out of the question either if Ike goes further west than forecast (it has a better chance of that then heading more north early). I think points east will still want to watch closely until Ike clears Cuba, but it's by no means something to lose sleep over in Florida.
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 09:05 PM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Except for the Keys, who should have been preparing for a major hurricane anyways, this will not be a major effect on S Fla. Some parts of SW Fla could get some TS winds if it passes on the north side of the forecast cone. I still expect this to make a landfall and transit of a good bit of Cuba in some way. I really doubt it shoots the Straights without hitting Cuba.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 09:32 PM |
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Wind Speeds and Category
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Remember, the wind speeds found above the surface. Whether by SFMR, dropsonde or HDOB are nearly Always reduced to the surface by roughly 90%.
100kt flight level wind reduces to roughly 90mph at the surface.
Flight level wind in knots x 1.15 = flight level wind in mph x 0.90 = surface wind estimate. This is for the 700mb or 10000ft flight level. But it is close enough for the lower levels.
Damage difference between a 100mph surface wind and a 140mph surface wind is roughly the difference between loosing your roofing materials to loosing your whole roof and more.
See the enhanced Fujita Scale at http://www.spc.noaa.gov for more information.
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 09:36 PM |
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Re: Wind Speeds and Category
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Quote:
100kt flight level wind reduces to roughly 90mph at the surface.
Flight level wind in knots x 1.15 = flight level wind in mph x 0.90 = surface wind estimate. This is for the 700mb or 10000ft flight level. But it is close enough for the lower levels.
Uh, check your math Danny
100kt = 115mph at flight level...
115mph FL * .9 = 103.5mph at the surface
I always look at flight level winds in knots, and just use the same rough number in MPH at the surface, since .9 * 1.15 is 1.035, which is close enough to 1.
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 09:44 PM |
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Re: Wind Speeds and Category
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For those interested in the dropsonde I speak of:
http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/recon/ar...;product=UZNT13
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 10:33 PM |
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Re: Wind Speeds and Category
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Well, whatever was going on with that eye which I am sure will analyzed nonstop in the days to come those are some of the most amazing eye images Ive seen in a while
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t4/sloop-avn.html
last few frames, amazing
and managing to stay partially over water as part is over land... taking the water road it seems along cuban coastline
| Hugh |
| (Senior Storm Chaser) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 10:48 PM |
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Re: Wind Speeds and Category
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That was the shortest eyewall replacement cycle I've ever seen, I believe.
It ALMOST appears to me that Ike may be turning south of west... but I'm sure it's my imagination...
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 11:44 PM |
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Re: Wind Speeds and Category
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Quote:
[Uh, check your math Danny
100kt = 115mph at flight level...
115mph FL * .9 = 103.5mph at the surface
I always look at flight level winds in knots, and just use the same rough number in MPH at the surface, since .9 * 1.15 is 1.035, which is close enough to 1.
You are correct. Take the flight level wind and change the knots to mph and that should be near the surface wind.
18 hour days will mess up the grey matter!!
| HCW |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Sun Sep 07 2008 11:44 PM |
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Re: Wind Speeds and Category
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Does anybody know if Cuba will give us permission to do recon tomorrow ? I know that it's rare for them to give us permission to fly over or get close to there coast but I would expect that this would be one of those rare times that they wouldn't mind .
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Mon Sep 08 2008 12:40 AM |
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Re: Ike Approaching Great Inagua, Hanna Extratropical
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Quote:
The Weather channel says that Ike should pass just north of Cuba. We will have to watch this one carefully.
The Weather Channel has said nothing of the sort. Their cone has consistently kept Cuba completely in the mix, and their OCMs broadcast based on that cone. See for yourself (LINK)
Let's please keep attributions on the lead page in this forum more restricted to those we can provide bona fide links to, with less speculation, hearsay and loose interpretation.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 08 2008 12:51 AM |
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Re: Wind Speeds and Category
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GFS 0Z run up to 120hrs is alittle east (50-100 miles) from the 18z run. After that, it takes IKE northeast towards a landfall next Sunday around Mobile Al-Pensacola Fl. First off (like I always preach) anything more than even 3 days out is not even a 50% chance it will come true, and after 5 days its less than 25%. The reason its slightly east in the near term is cause its alittle slower with a slightly weaker midlevel-ridging and a faster flow across the continental U.S. The longer range shows a stronger front than the 18z and also the cold front further east.
Like I said earlier today, I suspect IKE to slow down due to the first trough swinging by and missing him in a day or 2. This will create a weakness in the ridge and he may meander (like Hanna) until the next trough (as shown in the 0z run) picks him up. Question is How Fast Will The Trough Come Down? How Strong Will The Trough Be? and Finally, Where is IKE Located When He Hits The Weakness? 88W? 86W? The 3 Questions for the Extended Range, but first lets focus on the nowcast as model runs change, but focus mainly on the GFDL and GFS!
| Rasvar |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Sep 08 2008 01:29 AM |
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Re: Wind Speeds and Category
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Quote:
Does anybody know if Cuba will give us permission to do recon tomorrow ? I know that it's rare for them to give us permission to fly over or get close to there coast but I would expect that this would be one of those rare times that they wouldn't mind .
They will, on occasion, allow the NOAA high altitude flights but never the Air Force flights.
The 0Z GFS is an interesting change. It is also the first run that did get some of the high altitude ingest. Will be interesting to see if this is just a blip or not. Since the GFDL feeds off of it, I suspect there will a shift in that model too. However, I think most dramatic changes are post 120 hours.
| cate |
| (Verified CFHC User) |
| Mon Sep 08 2008 02:36 AM |
Re: Wind Speeds and Category
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Quote:
Does anybody know if Cuba will give us permission to do recon tomorrow ? I know that it's rare for them to give us permission to fly over or get close to there coast but I would expect that this would be one of those rare times that they wouldn't mind .
Since the US has refused to temporarily suspend the embargo for people in the US to assist family and friends in Cuba, why should they accommodate us????
I know, I know...probably off-topic, but we're talking about peoples' lives here.
edit: Cuba will suspend overflight for Life Safety reasons I'm sure. A CAT 3 or 4 on an east to west track should qualify as a Life Safety issue.
I recall RECON flying near and possibly over Cuba at least once this year. Probably was Dolly. ~danielw
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Sep 08 2008 03:15 AM |
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Re: Wind Speeds and Category
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MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1259 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008
VALID SEP 08/0000 UTC THRU SEP 11/1200 UTC
IKE...
THE NAM HAS BEEN TRENDING SOUTH WITH IKE OVER ITS PAST COUPLE DAYS
OF RUNS...THOUGH MOST OF THE TREND HAS BEEN SINCE ITS 07/12Z RUN.
SINCE ITS 12Z RUN...IT HAS SLOWED IKES FORWARD PROGRESSION. THE
ECMWF IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NORTH-SOUTH VARIATION SEEN OVER ITS
PAST COUPLE DAYS OF RUNS. THE GFS TRENDED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST WITH
THIS SYSTEM OVER ITS PAST DAY OF RUNS...DUE TO CHANGES IN SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST.
MODEL DIFFERENCES AND PREFERENCES...
IKE...
THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD CLUSTERING AMONGST THE GUIDANCE WITH IKES
TRACK THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THESE SOLUTIONS
ARE WELL WITHIN THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD SEEN IN THE
CANADIAN/ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM 12Z...THEY LIE AT THE
NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE CLUSTERING SEEN IN THEIR SURFACE LOW
POSITIONS. WHILE THIS IS A GOOD PLACE TO BE FOR A RECURVING
TROPICAL CYCLONE /WORKING OUT WELL FOR GUSTAVS INLAND TRACK AND
HANNA ONCE IT FINALLY MOVED NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS/...IT HAS NOT BEEN A FAVORABLE SPOT FOR FORECASTING IKE AS
IT HAS MAINTAINED A MORE WESTERLY COURSE THAN ANTICIPATED FOR
SEVERAL DAYS RUNNING. THE LATEST NHC TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE SPREAD. SEE THE LATEST
ADVISORIES/DISCUSSIONS ON IKE FROM NHC FOR ITS FUTURE TRACK.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Mon Sep 08 2008 03:19 AM |
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Re: Wind Speeds and Category
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That slow forward speed is going to be real nasty at any Category!!!
WHXX04 KWBC 080530
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
HURRICANE IKE 09L
INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 8
DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.
...
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LAT LON HDG/SPEED(KT)
102 27.5 90.3 295./ 8.2
108 28.2 90.9 316./ 8.8
114 28.7 91.5 312./ 6.7
120 29.1 91.8 325./ 4.9
126 29.4 92.0 321./ 4.3
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Mon Sep 08 2008 04:27 AM |
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Re: Wind Speeds and Category
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At this time all my feelings are with the cuban people, which suffer Ike´s fury. This is a horrible catatrophe for this country, which effects nearly all of the country. Don´t want to be come overly political, but I certainly don´t like the attitude of the US government to not lift the embargo for some time for some help in the face of this catastrophe.
I know the home of this forum is in Florida in the US and all your concerns are of course for the coming US landfall of Ike. Sometimes I have a bit of a feeling, as Cuba is seen as a kind of impersonal obstacle in the way of Ike, which has the positive effect of weakening Ike and making him less dangerous for a later US landfall. If this would be the case, I would wish, that you can feel, that there are people like you on Cuba, which suffer like you would be in the face of such a catastrophe.
Now to the meteorological situation: Cuban radar shows Ike continue to move to the west. Only around 6 hours longer of this west track and Ike`s core would be over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea. So very small deviations can have a lot of impact.
Latest GFS/GFDL/HWRF model runs are a bit frightening conerning the later US landfall. All three slow Ike down around day 5 at a bit differnet points with a N/NE turn. The GFS does it already a bit before the coast , the strormfield already effecting the coastline and this for a very long time and then turning it NE to Alabama or so. Ike is till over the Gulf at +168 h. The GFDL slows it down a bit later around the landfall in the middle of Louisiana around +126 h. The HWRF is the most horrible for New Orleans. It also slows down Ike just before the coast of Louisiana. It´s still over water at +126 and you see with the last frame, that it turns NNE, which would mean, that IKe would move directly over New Orleans later on.
This isn´t the point to worry too much about the US landfall, because modell shifts are still huge and the whole of the northern US gulf coast is under the gun.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Mon Sep 08 2008 04:41 AM |
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Re: Wind Speeds and Category
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Quote:
This isn´t the point to worry too much about the US landfall, because modell shifts are still huge and the whole of the northern US gulf coast is under the gun.
I agree....really, not much if any at all of the gulf coast is in the clear yet.
Part of the Area Forecast Discussion out of Tallahassee this AM....
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-MONDAY)...THIS FCST PERIOD REMAINS LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND EVOLUTION OF HURRICANE IKE. INITIALLY,
THE 00Z NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TAKING IKE WNWWD
INTO THE SERN GOMEX TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS THE WRN PORTION
OF THE BERMUDA HIGH WEAKENS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MAINTAINS A
GENERAL NWWD TRACK THROUGH THE CNTRL GOMEX THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
TOWARD THE TX/LA COASTS BY THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION IS THE 00Z GFS
WHICH STALLS IKE SOUTH OF THE LA COAST, THEN LIFTS IT NEWD BY A MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAN WHAT THE OTHER MODELS ARE
INDICATING, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE WRN FL PANHANDLE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A RADICAL DEPARTURE FROM THE OFFICIAL NHC FCST.
REGARDLESS, ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INTENSIFY IKE AS IT SPENDS
SEVERAL DAYS OVER THE WARM GULF WATERS. PLAN TO FOLLOW THE NHC FCST
TRACK. WILL TREND LOWER THAN THE GFS` WINDS AND SEAS, DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN IKE`S INTENSITY AND SIZE AS IT INTERACTS WITH CUBA
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS FAR AS TEMPS AND POPS ARE CONCERNED, WILL LEAN
CLOSE TO THE GRIDDED MOS. ALL INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IKE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
Note that the last ECMWF takes Ike near the Texas/Mexico border.
ECMWF
Check out the link below. I don't recall seeing it here but may be wrong. It has a lot information compiled in different format....you may like it.
http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/
| Random Chaos |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Mon Sep 08 2008 07:58 AM |
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Re: Wind Speeds and Category
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5am NHC discussion mentioned that the eyewall was disrupted. Based on Cuban radar, it looks like the eyewall was open on the SE quadrant.
Since that time, the eyewall looks to have closed and reformed...over land. Both Microwave imagery and Cuban radar show this.
Cuban radar: http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB.../cmwMAXw01a.gif
Microwave imagery: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/AT...N-766W.57pc.jpg
Additionally IR (via SSD) satellite shows the convective cloud tops re-encircling the eye area.
From everything I can see, Ike is doing everything it can to fight off the effects of land.
It's current track, per IR, looks to take it offshore south of Cuba for a short period of time before recrossing Cuba. Ike is also forming up a new convective band well out in front (east) of the main convective cover. This has become distinctly evident on the last couple IR frames. The storm appears to be growing in size as it's core is weakened.
This could become very interesting. Wonder how long it will keep fighting to keep it's core intact. Still has another day overland...unless it manages to escape N or S for a short while.
Edit: Just going to point out the latest GFDL (0600Z), just available in the last 10 minutes, shows Ike with it's eye partially to completely offshore south of Cuba for most of it's traverse of tie island before recrossing about where Gustov did. Looks very close to the track I am seeing on IR.