MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Tue Oct 14 2008 03:18 PM |
Omar Strengtheng Hurricane Watches up for Puerto Rico, TD#16 moving West Northwest
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5PM EDT Update
Tropical Storm Omar, through Recon flights, has been gaining strength rapidly today, and is now just shy of Hurricane Strength. It is fairly likely that Omar will intensify more before making landfall near Puerto Rico, therefore Hurricane Watches are now up for there and the Virgin Islands. The current forecast takes it very near the Virgin Islands, and it is possible for rapid intesification, those in the Virgin Islands and other northern Leeward islands will want to watch Omar closely.
Please Pay close attention to local media if you are those areas.
Original Update
The tropics mid October awakening continues, with one storm, Nana, gone. Omar showing up this morning, forcing Tropical Storm watches in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands, as well as another Depression, TD#16.
Omar should move northeast across Puerto Rico and bring Tropical Storm Conditions There, TD#16 is forecast to become a Tropical Storm and skirt the coast north of Honduras, eventually into the coast of Belize north of the Guatemala Border. A tropical Storm Warning exists for the north coast of Honduras.
{{radarlink|jua|San Juan, PR Radar}}
{{StormCarib}}
Martinique Radar
Leeward Island cams (HurricaneCity)
{{StormLinks|Omar|15|15|2008|2|Omar}}
{{StormLinks|TD#16|16|16|2008|1|TD#16}}
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 14 2008 06:28 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in West Caribbean, Tropical Storm Omar in East Caribbean
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Wow, recon found 986 hPa central pressure in Omar. The core is already forming and we should see an eye quite soon. Chances for rapid intensification are quite high.
Second recon will soon arrive in 16L.
| Rich B |
| (British Meteorologist) |
| Tue Oct 14 2008 06:57 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in West Caribbean, Tropical Storm Omar in East Caribbean
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HDOB's shows SFMR winds of 55 to 60 mph in Omar. Also, the Recon flight is just getting into TD16, as HDOB's show a drop in cruising altitude of the aircraft. Expect to see Hurricane Watches issued for some parts of the NE Caribbean shortly if the trend continues with Omar. Somewhat surprised that no watches or warnings have been issued for the ABC islands too!
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Tue Oct 14 2008 07:17 PM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in West Caribbean, Tropical Storm Omar in East Caribbean
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Flight level/SFMR winds up to 60 kt (~70 mph). We`ll soon have hurricane Omar!
| Storm Hunter |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Oct 15 2008 01:34 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in West Caribbean, Tropical Storm Omar in East Caribbean
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So nice to read stewarts discussions... agree with all, and based on recon data... it want be long before Omar is a Hurricane, and a rapid wrap up in intensification is looking more likely in the next 6-18 hrs. PR and the islands east of there have to watch it... especially since the storm will not becoming from the east. the storm will becoming at them from the WSW....
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Oct 15 2008 02:53 AM |
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Re: Tropical Depression 16 Forms in West Caribbean, Tropical Storm Omar in East Caribbean
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Well its official...its a hurricane now. It has some VERY cold tops going on, but looks more comma shaped. What does that mean in terms of intensifying?
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Oct 16 2008 03:29 AM |
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Major Hurricane Omar
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Note: this post is 24 to 25 hours after the above post. What a difference a day makes... What a horrible night~ danielw
As of the latest Advisory. Major Hurricane Omar has 115mph sustained winds and will pass very close to, or over the island Of St Croix.
MCP measured by the latest RECON pass is 967mb.
Latest METAR from CHRISTIANSTED TISX, located at 17.7N/ 64.8W follows:
TISX 160253Z AUTO 01034G51KT 1 3/4SM BR BKN010 BKN021 OVC036 24/23 A2943 RMK AO2 PK WND 01051/0244 RAE38 PRESFR SLP966 P0065 60149
Translation:
Conditions at: TISX (CHRISTIANSTED, VI) observed 0253 UTC 16 October 2008
Temperature: 23.9°C (75°F)
Dewpoint: 23.3°C (74°F) [RH = 96%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.43 inches Hg (996.7 mb)
[Sea-level pressure: 996.6 mb]
Winds: from the N (10 degrees) at 39 MPH (34 knots; 17.7 m/s)
gusting to 59 MPH (51 knots; 26.5 m/s)
Visibility: 1.75 miles (2.82 km)
Ceiling: 1000 feet AGL
Clouds: broken clouds at 1000 feet AGL
broken clouds at 2100 feet AGL
overcast cloud deck at 3600 feet AGL
Weather: BR (mist)
Not a good night for sleeping.
Possibly the worst scenario of Major Hurricane Omar is it's direction of movement. Most of the tropical sustems that pass through the Eastern Caribbean Sea move from East to West. Pushing any waves and tidal surge away from the islands.
Omar is moving to the NE at this time pushing waves and surge toward the Southwestern facing beaches and bays of the various islands.
Quick calculation of the possible surge depth is deltaP divided by 4.
1013-970= 43mb / 4 = 10.75feet of Possible Surge.
Significant wave height calculation is deltaP x 0.20.
43 x 0.20 = Possible significant wave height of 8.6meters or 28.21 feet.
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Oct 16 2008 05:47 AM |
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Re: Major Hurricane Omar
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As of the last recon pressure down to 961...winds 120mph. Center is passing 25 miles from St Croix. Not a good night to be there I suppose. The eye is really becoming clear on SAT images
| Thunderbird12 |
| (Meteorologist) |
| Thu Oct 16 2008 04:00 PM |
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Re: Major Hurricane Omar
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Omar apparently peaked at or near cat 4 intensity overnight, but it has since rapidly deteriorated. I don't remember seeing a storm as intense as Omar weakening so rapidly while still over tropical waters. The combination of Omar's relatively small size and its movement into a very hostile environment seems to be the culprit.
None of the islands seem to have taken a direct hit from Omar, which is obviously good news.
| Raymond |
| (Weather Guru) |
| Thu Oct 16 2008 05:02 PM |
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Re: Major Hurricane Omar
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The most amazing thing had been, that a rapid intensification phase was immediately followed by this rapid weakening phase. In 2-3 hours a perfect eye structure had been torn into parts, as the last vortex messages tell it!
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Sun Oct 19 2008 06:51 PM |
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Re: Omar Strengthening Hurricane Watches up for Puerto Rico, TD#16 moving West Northwest
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Some of the remnants of TD-16 have stayed behind and are slowly organizing a bit more in the northwestern Caribbean, off the coast of Belize. While barometric pressure so far does not appear to be falling much if at all at the surface, circulation is improving in the mid-levels, and a little bit at the surface, while deeper convection has been congealing progressively closer to and within the coc.
This feature has now been tagged as Invest 91L. Even if a tropical cyclone does not form, squally rains are likely in the region. 91L has been meandering a little, but effectively remained more or less stationary, over the past 36 hours.
| ltpat228 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 20 2008 06:21 PM |
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91L?
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According to the below info from links on Skeetobite and Wunderground, 91L Invest may cross over Florida?
I am very preplexed as I do not see any one on this site speaking about this.
Maybe I am missing those discussions here some where..?
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200891_model.html
http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=91&a=2
| Ed in Va |
| (Weather Master) |
| Mon Oct 20 2008 06:47 PM |
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Re: 91L?
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Au contraire, some of us are watching. The latest GFDL takes it over FL as a fairly strong tropical storm.
The GFS and other models take it across FL into the Carolinas.
| ltpat228 |
| (Storm Tracker) |
| Mon Oct 20 2008 08:55 PM |
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91
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!]
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Oct 21 2008 11:37 PM |
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Re: 91L?
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Yep! The models are in fair agreement that 91L will develop and head toward the FL panhandle. I find it questionable that the NHC is still stating that it will move westward and dissipate over land.
| Ronn |
| (User) |
| Wed Oct 22 2008 02:49 AM |
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Re: 91L?
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Any development of 91L will likely be non-tropical in nature. Wind shear will be too strong across the eastern GOM to permit tropical development, but a weak baroclinic low pressure system looks like a good bet. Here is part of the forecast discussion from the NWS Tampa/Ruskin earlier today:
.LONG TERM (THU NIGHT-TUE)...MODELS BEGINNING TO COME IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH GULF SYSTEM TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. DEEP UPPER
LOW FROM S PLAINS INTO THE MID MISS RV VALLEY WITH SW FLOW OVER THE
GULF AND FLORIDA AS SERIES OF SHORT WAVES/VORT MAXES ROTATE OVERHEAD
IN UPPER FLOW. WEAK BAROCLINIC/NON TROPICAL/COLD CORE LOW EXPECTED
TO FORM IN S GULF ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO LIFT NNE WARD. WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FL PENINSULA THU NT THEN NORTH HALF FRI WITH HIGH END CHANCE POPS
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THU NT-FRI AND MAY NEED TO INCREASE
POPS AS WE GET MORE CONFIDENT IN THIS SCENARIO. AROUND 1012MB LOW
AND COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM TO BE PUSHED OVER THE AREA FRI NT
INTO SAT WITH POTENT VORT MAX. COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY
CONVERGENCE.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Wed Oct 22 2008 02:24 PM |
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Re: 91L?
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That is looking like a more likely scenario as things are developing over CONUS and the Gulf. We need some rain in West Central FL anyway.
