MikeC
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| (Admin) |
| Mon Nov 03 2008 07:45 AM |
Tropical Depression 17 Forms. No Threat to Mainland US
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5PM Update 5 November 2008
Tropical Depression #17 has formed after recon aircraft found a low level center of circulation in the wave in the Western Caribbean. It may reach strong hurricane status before moving north and east, judging from the weather patterns and models it looks to have virtually no chance to near the mainland United States.
However, the Caymans, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Southeastern Bahamas will want to keep a very close eye on this system.
Original Update
It's November, the last month of the Atlantic Hurricane Season, and its when the activity starts to dwindle even more, leaving only the western Caribbean, and occasionally the Gulf (usually from stalled frontal systems) as the only spots to watch.
And in the southwest Caribbean we have a wave (93L) that needs to be watched, although if it does develop it will likely move away from the United States, and stay south and east of Florida.
More to come on that as needed.
{{radarlink|jua|San Juan, PR Radar}}
{{StormCarib}}
Martinique Radar
Leeward Island cams (HurricaneCity)
{{StormLinks|Paloma|17|17|2008|1|Paloma}}
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Mon Nov 03 2008 08:22 PM |
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Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean
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The timing varies a lot on the model development.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.c...;hour=Animation
I don't see how it would hang around that long and given those synoptics I don't see it going sharply out to sea. Too strong?
Other models seem to move it north too fast.
Came on here looking for some good discussion, November storms are notorious for being hard to predict.
| MichaelA |
| (Weather Analyst) |
| Tue Nov 04 2008 02:33 PM |
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Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean
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The model runs today are in fair agreement that it will develop and then move NEward across Cuba into the Bahamas. Will this be the season's last gasp?
| Cat 5orBust |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Tue Nov 04 2008 03:34 PM |
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Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean
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I don't really trust those model runs yet as many of them have been initiating the center a little bit south of where the center may be located or re-locating to. If this does develop, and it appears it will, as there is an anticyclone right over it and wind shear to its north does not seem to be an issue as of right now, then the models will get a better handle on things once an official center is used. I know the models turn it northeast and that will happen at some point, but there is a lot of speculation as to how strong the trough and how far south it will push. With it being election day, not many people paying attention to this feature, but I would't rule South Florida out of the potential path just yet. Not only that, but if it gets its act together, this could strengthen into something a bit more than what early intensity runs are showing. I don't think it will reach a high end cat 2 as the HWRF model had earlier, but it would not be surprisng if it did reach hurricane strength which not many models call for right now. People in the Caribbean, S. FL, and the Bahamas should start to pay a bit more attention as this feature is flying under the radar right now with all the focus on the election.
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Tue Nov 04 2008 06:53 PM |
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Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean
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Very little discussion about it.. so true, understandably with the election but still this could develop.
TWC has barely talked on the tropics even with an Invest up.. they just started now showing TS Polo. This evening is the first time I have seen them talking on it... which says a lot.
The area has steadily developed all day and convection is colorful with a definite twist.
Could we be looking for Paloma?
Wish the models would be more conclusive in strength and timing.
| Storm Cooper |
| (User) |
| Tue Nov 04 2008 09:35 PM |
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Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean
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Unless something really strange happens I think we are about done for 2008. I see some big changes coming for the site this next season and I hope all the Users will like it. I have made many friends here and I say thanks to all of them! This site rocks
Until next time, hopefully!Coop
| cieldumort |
| (Moderator) |
| Wed Nov 05 2008 01:51 AM |
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Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean
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The slowly organizing disturbance in the western Caribbean is closer than ever to becoming a tropical depression. Over the course of the last 72 hours, this broad area of low pressure has become better organized, with progressively more favorable upper-level winds aloft, and very warm sea surface temperatures below. Pressures have now been falling a bit over the most recent 24 hours, and winds continue picking up.
All indications are that Invest 93L has a better-than-average chance of becoming our next named tropical cyclone. Steering currents favor a track to the east-northeast to northeast, and it could impact Florida and/or, as well as many of the islands to its east-northeast, whether or not a tropical storm forms.
Should Invest 93L develop into a tropical cyclone that tracks to the ENE to NE, upper-level winds could conspire with the steering flow to induce quite a bit of exhaust, and this cyclone could have a very good chance of intensifying rapidly at one point or another, not at all unlike Omar of just last month.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Wed Nov 05 2008 08:39 AM |
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Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean
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TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
147 PM EST TUE NOV 04 2008
FINAL
DISCUSSION FROM NOV 04/0000 UTC. MODELS MAINTAIN GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH PREVIOUS RUN ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE NOTED AT LOW
LEVELS ON HOW THEY RESOLVE AN EVOLVING TROPICAL CYCLONE. AS IT
PERTAINS TO THIS FEATURE...THE GFS MODEL NOW AGREES WITH THE OTHER
MODELS ON POSSIBILITY OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMING OVER THE
SOUTHERN/WESTERN CARIBBEAN. BUT THEY CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON HOW
FAST IT IS GOING TO FORM/MOVE. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
SLOWEST/STRONGEST...WHILE THE GFS IS THE FASTEST/WEAKEST. THE
REGIONAL NAM FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE ECMWF... BUT AFTER
48-54 HRS IT TENDS TO SPEED UP. THE UKMET TILTS THE SCALE IN FAVOR
OF THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/PMDCA
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
217 PM EST TUE NOV 04 2008
VALID 12Z FRI NOV 07 2008 - 12Z TUE NOV 11 2008
TELECONNECTIONS WITH A NEGATIVE ANOMALY OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
FAVOR A SPLIT FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA...WITH TROUGHING ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH IN EASTERN CANADA AND NEW
ENGLAND. THE MODELS CONVERGE UPON THIS SCENARIO...BUT DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE STRENGTH OF SYSTEMS EMBEDDED WITHIN BOTH THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW. THE DEEP CYCLONE MOVING
THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE A
ROGUE ELEMENT IN THE FORECAST AS WELL.
...THE SYSTEM IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE PERIOD SHOULD KICK
OUT NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE DEEP CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES. CONSIDERING THE DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SPREAD AS WELL
AS THE ABOVE LOGIC...THE CANADIAN IS FAVORED EARLY ON WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE 00Z GFS WAS ON THE FAST SIDE OF THE SPREAD...WHILE
THE 00Z ECMWF WAS ON THE RIGHT HAND/SOUTH SIDE OF THE ENSEMBLE
ENVELOPE.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/PMDEPD
| LoisCane |
| (Veteran Storm Chaser) |
| Wed Nov 05 2008 12:03 PM |
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Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean
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What are they waiting for? Are they sending in a plane? I am a little confused on that part.
Looks very good on various imagery.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html
very bright color
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/ft-l.jpg
High cloud tops, seems to have a low level center and spin and model support.
Sort of classic November storm.
| scottsvb |
| (Weather Master) |
| Wed Nov 05 2008 01:30 PM |
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Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean
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We should have a Tropical Storm this evening or tonight. Probably a hurricane by Friday at least.
Im not 100% sold on the models taking this across Cuba ahead of the first front this weekend...it may wait for the 2nd 1 later next week... too early to tell.
| mikethewreck |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Nov 05 2008 04:25 PM |
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Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean
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Now TD 17, projected to get to hurricane status.
Doggone it, already took off my shutters!
I know we shouldn't be surprised by late season storms but I think this one will shock a bunch of folks. It did me!
| Cat 5orBust |
| (Weather Hobbyist) |
| Wed Nov 05 2008 04:31 PM |
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Re: November and Watching Southwest Caribbean
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TD 17 to become a tropical storm most likely tonight. Forecast to become a hurricane. South FL just pay attention as a slight shift in the thinking and this could be a problem for the peninsula. The NHC mentions at the bottom of their discussion that models eject these types of systems too quickly out of the Caribbean at times....sounds to me like there is some speculation as to the trough and how quickly it will send the storm to the northeast. also they mentioned that the environment is very favorable for intensification the next few days so a cat 2 or major hurricane is not out of the question at these early stages. lets see what the thinking is later tonight on the new update.
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danielw
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| (Moderator) |
| Thu Nov 06 2008 07:10 AM |
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Tropical Storm Paloma
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TD 17 was upgraded overnight to Tropical Storm Paloma. More to follow...
...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM PALOMA WITH
35-KT WINDS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE SFMR ESTIMATED SURFACE
WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 KT IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. HOWEVER...
THESE WINDS APPEAR SUSPECT DUE TO HEAVY RAIN AND SHOALING ISSUES.
...THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
INDEX ATTACHED TO THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF
30 KT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT 24 HR. THE HWRF FORECASTS A
PEAK INTENSITY 114 KT AND 921 MB IN 72 HR...WHILE THE GFDL
FORECASTS A PEAK INTENSITY OF 97 KT AND 961 MB IN 66 HR. THE
INTENSITY FORECASTS IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE...CALLING FOR A
PEAK INTENSITY OF 90 KT IN 72 HR IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ICON
CONSENSUS MODEL.
THE GUIDANCE MODELS SUGGEST
TWO TRACK FORECAST SCENARIOS. FIRST...THE GFDL...HWRF... AND BAMD
FORECAST A VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST
ACROSS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS INTO THE ATLANTIC. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE GFS... NOGAPS...UKMET...ECMWF...AND CANADIAN MODELS ALL
SHOW PALOMA SHEARING APART AFTER 72 HR AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...
WITH THE REMNANT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TURNING WESTWARD OR
NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE. THE NOGAPS
SHOWS THE MOST WESTWARD TRACK...KEEPING PALOMA WEST OF THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. THE GFS IS THE EASTERNMOST OF THIS SET OF SOLUTIONS...
SHOWING THE CENTER REACHING THE BAHAMAS. SINCE THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS FOR A STRONG AND VERTICALLY DEEP HURRICANE AT 72 HR...
THE TRACK FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE GFDL/HWRF/BAMD SCENARIO.
HOWEVER...THE FORECAST FORWARD SPEED AFTER 72 HR WILL BE SLOWER
THAN WHAT THOSE MODELS ARE FORECASTING.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/060858.shtml
| WeatherNut |
| (Weather Master) |
| Thu Nov 06 2008 06:53 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Paloma
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NHC put out their advisory 1 hour early to upgrade Paloma to a hurricane. They advised that "rapid intensification" was under way and think Paloma will be a Cat 2 storm tomorrow. I think this will happen sooner than later
| La Nimo |
| (Weather Watcher) |
| Thu Nov 06 2008 07:23 PM |
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Re: Tropical Storm Paloma
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NHC didn't put the up date out an hour early, We are back to EST. This is there normal time for up dates...