MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Fri Nov 07 2008 01:31 PM
The season end is near

Paloma is just about a memory now after making it to Cat 4 for a short time. For now things seem to fit right in with the end of the season nearing. We will see.

Hurricane Paloma is now a Cat 4 hurricane with winds to 135 mph. It is nearing the Little Caymans as of 5:30am EST.

Hurricane Paloma, currently a Category 1 Hurricane, is approaching Grand Cayman, and should move somewhat slowly over it and Cuba and perhaps strengthen into a major Hurricane before landfalling in Cuba.

Once past Cuba it should head generally northeastward away from the US. As it passes over Cuba the forward speed of Paloma is in doubt, depending on how much of it survives Cuba. We'll be watching.



'Cuban Radar Mosaic Recording of Paloma Approach
{{radarlink|jua|San Juan, PR Radar}}
{{StormCarib}}
Martinique Radar
Leeward Island cams (HurricaneCity)

{{StormLinks|Paloma|17|17|2008|1|Paloma}}


vineyardsaker
(Weather Guru)
Fri Nov 07 2008 04:17 PM
Re: Hurricane Paloma Approaches Grand Cayman

Well, maybe its the paranoid nature in me, but I still don't like this one bit; the rather slow forward motion and resulting round shape of the NHC 4-5 track area make me a little nervous. Still, the models seem to agree that Paloma will stay away from Florida, but how good are these models with such a slow moving system?

Am I being a little too paranoid here? And is there enough warm water out there for Paloma not to weaken as predicted?

Thanks,

VS


Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Fri Nov 07 2008 05:03 PM
Re: Hurricane Paloma Approaches Grand Cayman

The longer-range models are in excellent agreement about the NE turn. I don't think you have a thing to worry about.

mikethewreck
(Weather Hobbyist)
Fri Nov 07 2008 05:04 PM
Re: Hurricane Paloma Approaches Grand Cayman

Per the 4 PM discussion shear will be the major culprit tearning Paloma apart (along with land interaction with Cuba). I feel for the Cuban people who once again this year get to be hit by a tropical system.

Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Nov 07 2008 11:05 PM
Re: Hurricane Paloma Approaches Grand Cayman

Paloma is now Category 3 - a major hurricane.

Storm Hunter
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Nov 08 2008 12:33 AM
Re: Hurricane Paloma Approaches Grand Cayman

like reading stewarts discussion tonight in the 10pm adv. pkg. You can tell he looks at the whole picture and lays out his thinking and what he see's in the models.... and explains it well....I notice now that a part of SE Florida in now in the 5-day cone... that's if the storm is still around by then.... and i think its going to very hard to see a defined low, based on the forecasted upper level winds Paloma will see starting tomorrow. Its very intersting to see a major cane this late in the seaon, especially a storm that is really small and compact such as Paloma. Have to say i don't remember off the top of my head how many times has eastern Cuba been hit a tropical system in one year. I know this year, they taken a beating down there, especially in that say general area!

hurricf
(Registered User)
Sat Nov 08 2008 04:50 AM
Re: Hurricane Paloma Approaches Grand Cayman

Paloma should move somewhat slowly over Cuba

www.worldwidemeteo.com


Cat 5orBust
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Nov 08 2008 07:29 AM
Re: Hurricane Paloma Approaches Grand Cayman

Just an unbelievable event happening with the hurricane. May reach a cat 5 in November. With it being such a strong storm is there a possibility now that this wont dissipate to a remnant low which is the current forecast? could this still be at least a tropical storm once it crosses Cuba? The shear needs to attack this or there is going to be a problem once it gets past Cuba. From what I have seen this season from storms going through Cuba, I do not anticipate the landmass to break up the storm that much, so its entirely up to the shear. Lastly, in looking at the water vapor loop does not look as though the trough is really digging southward that fast. Is the thinking that this trough will still push south of FL and really inhibit the storm, or is that up for question still?

mikethewreck
(Weather Hobbyist)
Sat Nov 08 2008 08:21 AM
Re: Hurricane Paloma Approaches Grand Cayman

I don't think we'll see much of Paloma coming off Cuba. The projected rise in shear should cripple the storm. Her small size I would think would make her less resilient to shear/land interaction. I keep thinking about all the storms this year that hit Cuba and we thought they'd reintensify and they never did. The last NHC discussion talking about the different directions the storm will be pulled in made it sound like there is a buzz saw waiting for Paloma. The sooner the better!

That being said, the fact that it looks as "good" as it does (unless you're in it) and is tracking south of the forecast track concerns me. I see what you're saying about the trough. Not a fun day in the Caribbean...

Well the 1000 NHC Discussion answers these questions:

RADAR FROM CAMAGUEY AND REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE SUGGEST
THAT PALOMA IS STARTING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH
CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS NOTED. THIS STRUCTURE...COMBINED WITH SHEAR
THAT IS LIKELY TO INCREASE TODAY...SUGGESTS THAT SLOW WEAKENING IS
LIKELY. HOWEVER...PALOMA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE UP
THROUGH LANDFALL. THEREAFTER A RAPID WEAKENING SEEMS PROBABLE DUE
TO THE EFFECTS OF LAND AND RATHER HIGH SHEAR FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL
MODELS. THIS WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND
PALOMA COULD START TO DISSIPATE IN A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL INITIALLY AND THEN IS A
BLEND OF THE REST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AFTER LANDFALL IN CUBA.

THE HURRICANE HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT AND APPEARS TO
BE MOVING AT 060/8. NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT-TERM...REQUIRING AN EASTWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE NHC
FORECAST. THEREAFTER...THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
PALOMA WILL DECOUPLE AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL BE LEFT BEHIND
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE
FORECAST IN THE LATER PERIODS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ISN'T TOO
FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IT IS WORTH EMPHASIZING THAT PALOMA
WILL LIKELY BE QUITE WEAK AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE WESTWARD AT THE END
OF THE PERIOD DUE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR.


StormHound
(Weather Guru)
Sat Nov 08 2008 02:53 PM
Re: Hurricane Paloma Approaches Grand Cayman

When did the NHC start using M to designate major hurricane on the forecast tracks?

Random Chaos
(Weather Analyst)
Sat Nov 08 2008 07:42 PM
Hurricane Paloma Over Cuba

At 6:20pm, Paloma made landfall near "SANTA CRUZ DEL SUR CUBA AS A STRONG CATEGORY 3"

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT2+shtml/082323.shtml


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sat Nov 08 2008 07:58 PM
Re: Hurricane Paloma Over Cuba

Amazes me how it hit the same area a November hurricane hit in 1932 that was said to be a Cat 4 .. people remember it in Cuba as it caused an infamous "tidal wave" that over 2,000 people were killed.. was legendary.

Same time...

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atlantic/1932/10/track.gif

A woman at my old job once asked me to research that storm for her as she had distant family members who had died in it. Amazed me how little we hear about such storms in Cuba.. horrible storm.

And, I am wondering how fast that front is moving because it seems to be running late.


LoisCane
(Veteran Storm Chaser)
Sun Nov 09 2008 09:54 AM
Re: Hurricane Paloma Over Cuba

The front seems to have gotten it yet it took the moisture and pushed it away from Paloma's inner core.

If you watch the visible loops you see a different storm than you see on IR or WV imagery.

A good job by the NHC, TWC has done a good job explaining it and Paloma decoupled from her upper level circulation and moisture has separated from the still visible low level center lost over land and fighting strong upper level winds.

The flow out in front of the front did the job...


mikethewreck
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Nov 10 2008 06:43 AM
Rotation?

Is it my imagination or is there some rotation in the blob of clouds near the Nicaraguan/Costa Rican border? This looks to me a little like Marco. I remember looking at Marco on IR satellite (before he was classified) and I thought I saw rotation. Recon later confirmed a nasty LITTLE tropical storm. Or am I seeing things? (I am over 40 and vision not what it used to be.)

mikethewreck
(Weather Hobbyist)
Mon Nov 10 2008 08:16 PM
Re: Rotation?

Whatever it was, it's gone now. Never mind!

Bloodstar
(Moderator)
Tue Nov 11 2008 04:25 PM
looking at 94L and Paloma

Of all the things, 94l has started firing convection the last 6 hours or so, the cloud tops aren't terribly cold, and the convection is still sheared from upper level winds out of the west. However the convection seems to have creeped closer to the LLC. and the storm continues to drift SSW (looks to be around 29.5N and 37.5W)

Looking at the wider view, it looks like there's some even stronger Shear heading 94ls way, barring it slipping into a pocket. I'd give it a very low chance of developing, however it's not zero (probably about 10 percent likely). though it looks like the storms near the LLC aren't holding together, so the long odds seem even longer.

Should convection actually continue throughout the night. then we'll have a sense if the storm can pull itself together out in the Far Atlantic.

Paloma is just a low level swirl off the southern shore of Cuba. Just a few showers around it. it'll have a really tough time regenerating, (and with all the dry area in the area, it's more accurate to say it has pretty much no chance at all).


srquirrely
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Nov 13 2008 10:33 AM
Re: looking at 94L and Paloma

"Paloma is just a low level swirl off the southern shore of Cuba. Just a few showers around it. it'll have a really tough time regenerating, (and with all the dry area in the area, it's more accurate to say it has pretty much no chance at all)."

So here comes ex-Paloma, somehow managing to keep her LLC together in incredibly hostile environs, approaching 24N 85W with that nasty looking front barreling into the Gulf from the opposite direction... I hope they don't form a mini 'perfect storm' over MY house.



Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center