MikeCAdministrator
(Admin)
Tue Sep 15 2009 06:02 PM
Conditions Not Good for Development

Conditions are not good for development, these are good words to hear in mid September, and this year we have seen the overall poor conditions for development across the Atlantic basin persist. There are three areas worth watching, one is a wave just west of Africa that has a low chance for development, if it does, it is likely to weaken well before land and possibly go out to sea.

Another wave is actually the remnants of Hurricane Fred, still moving westward, it could redevelop, it has a low chance of redevelopment as well. It likely will enter an area more favorable for development in a few days. But again, this will likely not affect land with any real threat. It could get close if it stays weak, but its more likely to be picked up and dragged out to sea by a front if that happens. Time will tell on that.

Another area east of the Bahamas is a stalled out front, this has a low chance to develop as well, but even this is not likely to affect the United States.

None of the above are being tracked as invest areas at this time.

Hopefully the rest of the season remains quiet.

{{StormLinks|TD#8|08|8|2009|1|TD#8}}


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 16 2009 04:06 AM
Re: Conditions Not Good for Development

Models have been re-initiated for 07L (Fred).

07L appeared very nearly to be on the way to wrapping itself up in deep convection late last night, but as has often been the case these past 48 hours or so, this attempt was once again deflected to the north and northeast. Fred currently appears as one might expect a highly-sheared former major hurricane that still retains a potent surface circulation to appear. Scatterometer picked up some arguably legit 40+ knot vectors Tuesday, and a fairly tight LLC still exists within the center of the stripped cyclone.

Invest Fred may very well have a real chance of regaining some of its former glory, but any path to such an upgrade still seems slow, as the ULL to Fred's WSW continues to inject just a ton of dry air into the system, while also shoving each and every blowup of deep convection to the north, south, and east. It almost seems as if Fred may have a better shot of reorganizing into a hybrid cyclone, until or unless the ULL appreciably fills. Truly, the number of ways Fred can earn his name again are not limited, but each avenue remains fraught with difficulty. Nonetheless, the weekend might become a lot more interesting given Invest Fred's most likely future track and several potential opportunities for further organization.


hogrunr
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 16 2009 10:53 AM
Re: Conditions Not Good for Development

Considering Fred's Surface circulation is still well organized, we might actually be able to believe the models somewhat with this re-developing system. HWRF, CMC, and NGP all have the system crossing or just south of Florida at about the 5-6 day mark as a strong Tropical storm to Cat 1 storm. The intensity plots also almost all agree to strengthening to more than Cat 1 in that same time period.

Also the wave just south of Puerto Rico is looking better this morning, some convection that is off center from the surface circulation, but worth watching.


danielwAdministrator
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 16 2009 02:17 PM
Re: Conditions Not Good for Development

I've been watching Ex-Fred and the area south of Puerto Rico for the past few days. They are persistantly persistant. Pardon the English...

I was looking around at some super extended text model output for Key West and I did appear that some type of Low Pressure system would be in the are in the next 5 days or so.
Slowly falling barometer and wind directions consistant with a Low passing thru the area.

However the forecast wind speeds at Key West over the next 16 day 12Z forecast weren't in the tropical depression range. Mostly in the under 20 knot range.

Cool wave progged to pass into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the weekend should kick the remains of what could have been the "G" storm that spun up in the NW GOM last week. Question is, will the cool/ long wave be enough to boot Ex-Fred off to the NE before nearing Florida. Have to wait that one out.
Another really potent longwave/ cold front lies offshore the Pacific Northwest at this time. Probably be late next week before it could make to the N GOM area.
While the cool waves don't really have a lot to do with the tropics, they may be just strong enough to deflect anything that might move into the area.

Keep an eye on the Bay of Campeche. Nice cluster of heavy thunderstorms popped up there earlier. Appear to be on the very southern end of the inflow to the cutoff upper Low over the ArkLaTex.


ltpat228
(Storm Tracker)
Wed Sep 16 2009 06:25 PM
Re: Conditions Not Good for Development

Quote:

Question is, will the cool/ long wave be enough to boot Ex-Fred off to the NE before nearing Florida.




This is the 2nd poster that's eluded that a system [maybe just good ol rain?] will be around Florida soon.
Any idea when Florida might be affected?


cieldumort
(Moderator)
Wed Sep 16 2009 09:09 PM
Re: Conditions Not Good for Development

Well, what was just yesterday looking like almost getting ready to make a real comeback, Fred has been disassembled by its nearby ULL into an ever-weakening open wave today. If its chances for any near-term revival were low before this happened, they seem practically non-existent now. Short of writing xFred off altogether, at best over the next few days, odds probably favor that the remnants of Fred may continue to interact with the ULL which has engulfed it, and, at best, the duo may still transition into a hybrid of sorts (nameable or not).

It hardly looks like mid-September out there.


docrod
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 17 2009 04:04 PM
Re: Conditions Not Good for Development

Fred seem to be making one more go of it this afternoon (9/17)

link


ftlaudbob
(Storm Chaser)
Thu Sep 17 2009 06:04 PM
Fred not dead!

Quote:

Fred seem to be making one more go of it this afternoon (9/17)

link





Amazing!Fred will not die.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html


docrod
(Weather Watcher)
Thu Sep 17 2009 09:37 PM
Re: Fred not dead!

Quote:

Quote:

Fred seems to be making one more go of it this afternoon (9/17)

link





Amazing!Fred will not die.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATATL_FLOAT2/anim8vis.html




Indeed - btw I wish I could type (e.g. "seem" should be "seems" in my earlier post)

The convection is still holding up ... somewhat ... the NHC now rates it "Yellow"

I'm by no means concerned here (some shear evident north to south in the latest ir), but I intend to keep my powder and humor dry.

- take care


Ed in Va
(Weather Master)
Fri Sep 18 2009 08:52 AM
Re: Fred not dead!

Fred didn't have a good night, but it looks now like the circulation and convection are trying to get on the same sheet of music http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-rb.html

Steve H1
(Storm Tracker)
Fri Sep 18 2009 10:13 AM
Re: Fred not dead!

Yes, Fred is looking like he's trying to organize again. Warmer SSTs ahead. Shear is still impinging on him from the NE. This will need to slacken in order for him to get his act together. Ships now brings him to 59 knots, and the BAMs show him getting close to anywhere from south Florida to SC. We'll see how he does today. Cheers!

berrywr
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Sep 18 2009 05:22 PM
Re: Fred not dead!

There's an upper ridge forecasted for the Southeast USA and quite strong next week. Shear continues to lighten in the whole region. I haven't looked at anything yet other than a zoom up on visible satellite and tops being sheared away to the SSW, but a tight little swirl nevertheless approaching the Bahamas. NHC had dropped it altogether for one forecast cycle and it appeared again this morning and their outlook speaks of lesser shear. If it continues west, it will have to cross FL and then into the GOM, but that's at least a couple days away. Upper low expected to cutoff as a strong shortwave drops out of Canada into the South Central US. Anyway, more on that later when I have time to look at the big picture.

docrod
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 18 2009 09:38 PM
Re: Fred not dead!

Or maybe a stall/slow-down ?? At any rate, the NWS Key West is starting to introduce uncertainty on Fred-Ex's passage over S Florida.

NWS EYW

btw - today is the anniversary of the 1926 Great Miami storm.


JoshuaK
(Weather Guru)
Tue Sep 22 2009 04:41 PM
Re: Fred not dead!

Umm, is the circulation of Fred right over Central FL right now? I seem to see a spiral pattern within the thunderstorms popping up this afternoon. It seems to be a nice big circle. Could be coincidence I guess.

Ed DunhamAdministrator
(Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator)
Tue Sep 22 2009 08:50 PM
Re: Fred not dead!

Actually the low-level center of Fred (or what is left of it) was located by radar 80 miles east (092 deg) of Melbourne at 8pm ET moving to the west southwest at about 8-10mph. The wave axis should reach the coast before sunrise with showers and a possible thunderstorm for the Wednesday morning commute along the east central Florida coast.

Even with all of the pockets of windshear, the low level circulation made quite a lengthy journey across the pond.
ED


MichaelA
(Weather Analyst)
Wed Sep 23 2009 08:26 PM
Re: Fred not dead!

What's going on in the Western Caribbean tonight?

JoshuaK
(Weather Guru)
Wed Sep 23 2009 08:33 PM
Re: Fred not dead!

I noticed that and came on here to comment about it. It seems an area of convection is developing and wrapping around an upper level low just to the NE of the Nicaragua/Honduras border in the Western Caribbean, with the entire system seeming to be slowly drifting torwards the north.

rgd
(Weather Hobbyist)
Thu Sep 24 2009 10:21 PM
Re: Fred not dead!

We had a Thunderstorm over my house tonight the cable went out.

Black Pearl
(Weather Watcher)
Fri Sep 25 2009 12:58 PM
Re: Fred not dead!

NRL posted 99L

Floater One


JoshuaK
(Weather Guru)
Fri Sep 25 2009 05:18 PM
Re: Fred not dead!

It's official. 99L has formed into Tropical Depression Eight, as advisories have now commenced. Forecasted to be a little like Fred was originally, strengthen into a Tropical Storm, then curved up and dissipate because of increasing wind shear, and not a threat to land at all it seems so far.

CoconutCandy
(Weather Analyst)
Fri Sep 25 2009 05:57 PM
Re: Fred not dead!

Thanks Joshua. I'd recommend posting to the new discussion "Tropical Depression 8 Forms! Tropical Storm GRACE in the Making ??", as the 5,000+ posts here are HISTORY (Freds' story, mostly).

OR! I'm sure Mike will be opening a new forum post soon, now that advisories have been issued, so y'all can post there.

Just a suggestion, as "Conditions Not Good for Development" and "Fred not dead!" are clearly no longer applicable. Just goes to show how S-L-O-W this season has been, Pacific Basins notwithstanding.



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